PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 04-05-2002 section 1 of 3 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/d05b_1.asp ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Networkers get reality check as Nortel sinks lower. Play-of-the-Day: Quick and Dirty. (bearish) Watch List: CCU, VRSN, WLP, ITT, CAG and Much More! Market Sentiment: Sentiment Check. ------------------------------------------------------------------ U.S. Market Numbers ------------------------------------------------------------------ MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ------------------------------------------------------------------ WE 4-5 WE 3-29 WE 3-22 WE 3-15 DOW 10271.64 -132.30 10403.94 - 23.73 10427.67 -179.56 + 34.74 Nasdaq 1770.03 - 75.32 1845.35 - 6.04 1851.39 - 16.91 - 61.37 S&P-100 564.02 - 13.85 577.87 - 2.22 580.09 - 11.04 + 1.29 S&P-500 1122.73 - 24.66 1147.39 - 1.31 1148.70 - 17.46 + 1.85 W5000 10551.43 -224.31 10775.74 - 1.12 10776.86 -127.83 + 14.02 RUT 497.76 - 8.70 506.46 + 4.07 502.39 + 3.27 - .73 TRAN 2778.41 -139.55 2917.96 + 40.69 2877.27 - 74.27 - 58.70 VIX 21.13 + 1.81 19.32 - 0.30 19.62 - 1.15 - 0.84 VXN 40.85 + 4.57 36.28 - 1.28 37.56 - 2.70 - 1.36 TRIN 1.67 0.84 1.12 0.56 TICK +341 +793 +647 +855 Put/Call .78 .79 .66 .64 ------------------------------------------------------------------ WE= week ended =========== Market Wrap =========== Networkers get reality check as Nortel sinks lower For the bulk of the week it was the software stocks that got rubbed lower as earning's warnings riddled the sector and shook some software bulls into selling. Today, it was the data storage and networking stocks to suffer the fate of earnings season after last night's earning's warning from data-storage maker McData Corp. (NASDAQ:MCDT) $9.72 -22.54% on first quarter earnings, citing further order reductions in March by its biggest customer EMC Corp. (NYSE:EMC) $11.12 -5.03. While most of the damage was done or factored in at the opening of trading, networking stocks with a telecom "theme" found willing sellers after Moody's Investors Service cut Nortel's (NYSE:NT) $3.75 -11.55% credit rating to junk status. The Canadian-based telecom-equipment provider's stock sunk to a 6.5- year low on volume of 35.4 million shares. Nortel Networks Chart - Daily Interval The market can sure be unforgiving. While my "Nortel looks toppy" comments were in relation to where Lucent's (NYSE:LU) $4.53 -1.3% stock was trading that night today's trade at $3.75 in NT is a reality check on how out of favor this group of stocks are. One might also have argued that they are all a "buy" as a contrarian indicator. As ironic as it may be, we noted on March 12th that Moody's had just downgraded Nortel's long-term debt to Baa3 from Baa2. Evidently Moody's still hasn't seen any fundamental turn in things if they are downgrading their debt further. That commentary from the March 12th wrap http://www.PremierInvestor.net/markets/marketwrap/031202_1.asp may be worth reviewing. It may also help us with the thinking that Juniper Networks (NASDAQ:JNPR) $11.42 -7.22% "looks a little toppy." Juniper Networks Chart - Daily Interval When I reviewed my March 12 "Market Wrap" today, I see that I had evidently has "second thoughts" to some bullish comments in Juniper Networks (JNPR) after the March 12th debt downgrade in fellow telecom-networker Nortel (NT). That was up at the $13.57 level. Since that update, JNPR hasn't seen the "light of day" from that level and looks lower. This makes some sense technically as it pertains to the "group." If NT follows LU lower, then I've got to think that JNPR will do the same. My thinking then continues on as LU and NT both traded below their past 52-week lows. One little "burp" about an earning's shortfall or any type of debt downgrade on the stock has me thinking a revisit to the lows too. A trader doesn't necessarily need to see the stock take out the $8.90 level to make some bearish money either. A target to "cover to soon" would be fine at $9.00. If achieved, that would be a 21% decline (gain for a bull) from current levels. Juniper (JNPR) is scheduled to report earnings on April 11, after the close of trading. Consensus estimates are for the company to report break-even earnings ($0.00 a share). It's this type of trade that a bear may see what I'm pointing to in shares of Juniper (JNPR), but be "risk averse" and not willing to short such a volatile stock at lower levels. If so, the turn to the options market and only risk what you can afford to lose! For instance, if the "play" is for the company to either warn, disappoint, or caution on the future (using the action in LU and NT from the past to support such a thought) then a trader could buy the April $10 puts (JUXPB) which currently trade $0.30 per contract (cost would be $30.00 for 1 contract, or $300 for 10 contracts) and gives you (the owner of those puts) the RIGHT TO SELL THE STOCK OF JNPR FOR $10.00. The MAXIMUM you could lose in the option is what you put into it. If the stock trades your target of $9.00 then the April $10 puts would be worth close to (could be more) $1.00. A $300 investment could then be worth $900.00 if the stock trades the $9.00 level. Remember, you could lose the $300.00, but that's also pretty close to the dollar "risk" if you were to short 200 shares at $11.42, with a stop at $12.60 (risking $1.18 x 200 share = $236). The "protection" a more "risk averse" bear gets from the option is in the case of an "upside surprise" from Juniper on earnings. If the stock gapped higher a trader in the stock has to deal with the consequences. With the options, your assessing the risk and taking it all up front with the option. Remember, if the stock is trading at $15 after earnings, then you only have the RIGHT to sell it at $10, but not the OBLIGATION, therefore you would not do anything. Just another way that options can help you manage/limit your risk. Down week for most stock sectors as cash rotated to Treasuries The market looks more defensive at the end of this week as the major market averages all finished lower on a week-to-week basis. Losses in the major market averages seem to have found cash flowing into the Treasury bond market as investors moved cash toward the perceived safety of bonds. Tensions in the Middle East had crude oil prices on the rise. The result of higher oil prices had transportation stocks under pressure. The Dow Transportation Average (TRAN) 2,778 -0.18% in today's trading fell -4.8% this week. The Dow Transportation Average (TRAN) is one of the "sectors" that we want to monitor for strength/weakness to get a feel for the potential strength/weakness of the underlying economy. With energy prices on the rise, it then becomes somewhat "unclear" if the bearish action this week is a reflection of the market's outlook on the economy, or just a reflection of the more negative impact that higher fuel prices have on this sector. In an attempt to get a different perspective, this week I've added the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) to our weekly sector watch spreadsheet. This will help give us another "key sector" to also monitor that included stocks that are not just "transportation" specific. This group is also sensitive to energy prices, but the cost of fossil fuel prices (oil and natural gas) do not carry the "weight" of cost/expense to a company's bottom line as much as fuel prices will impact a transportation company's bottom line. To perhaps confirm this line of thinking, we would perhaps note that the Airline Index (XAL.X) fell -4.8% in the latest week, matching the 4.8% decline in the Dow Transports (TRAN). Meanwhile the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) managed to gain 1.31% today, while falling just 2.4% during the week. The relative strength of the Cyclical Index (CYC.X) may then give us the broader feel of the deeper cyclicals. It has been my belief and trading scenario that the deeper cyclical stocks should be the better performing stocks in the event of economic growth out of a recession. It has also been my belief that the more "risk averse" bullish trader should concentrate some of their efforts in these deeper cyclical stocks if they are playing the scenario for economic growth. If you would like to see a detailed list of components for the Dow Transportation Average, please visit the CBOE website at http://www.cboe.com/Common/PageViewer.asp?SEC=4&DIR=OPIndexComp&F ILE=djia-2.doc. Unfortunately, the AMEX website does not give us a list of sector components for the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X), but subscribers can visit Moby Data's website at http://www.mobydata.com/. Click "Data" and then "Index Components" to get a list of various indexes. I will note that Moby Data does not do the greatest job in keeping the indexes "current" but will give you an idea of composition. Weekly market averages/sector performance I've put a "check mark" by the Cyclical Index (CYC) that is the new addition to our weekly sector watch. What becomes more evident as we get into the year, is that the "lower" end of the list, which I've tried to arrange with the more economically sensitive sectors or deeper cyclical are still showing some decent gains since their December 31st closes. What may be a bit concerning to "economic bulls" is the congruent pullbacks in the Airlines, Transports, Oil, Oil Service, Natural Gas, Forest Paper and Cyclical Indexes this week. We've seen in the past how the negative performance in the tech stocks will impact market psychology as all the hopeful bulls in those groups continue to see bearish results. It could well be that these groups or at least a portion of them pulled back on profit taking as the market bias towards these stocks was soured by the weakness in the technology sectors (Biotech, Software, Semiconductor, Networking, Internet, Disk Drive, Wireless, Fiber Optic, Combined Telecom, N. Amer. Telecom). As market psychology continues to sour from some "tech whippings" it has tended to bring negativity or at least a greater tendency toward selling in the groups where profits still remain. Unfortunately, this is simply a "fact" of how markets tend to trade. Markets are very "psychological" at times and when investors start finding losses build in a part of their portfolios (lack of stop losses). Then as those losses build, the logical next step is to sell the winners. The selling of the winners then gives the temporary "feeling" of short-term success and that "I've beat the market," which helps to ease the pain (temporarily) of the ongoing losses in those stocks the investor hopes will come back. Some do "come back," while others will not. I can perhaps "back this up" by pointing to this weeks action in the benchmark 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X). You will note that the 10- year YIELD (10-year on spreadsheet) fell this week, and rather sharply at that (remember, YIELDS fall as a bond's price rises due to buying). All we've been hearing about lately is that the markets are spooked by the thought of the Fed raising interest rates to put a lid on any type of problems that could be created from inflation. If that is the case, then why is anyone in their right mind buying Treasury bonds, which would suffer under a Fed policy of raising interest rates? One reason that the MARKET would be buying bonds is for perceived "safety." We could argue that the MARKET might do this due to tensions in the Middle East. We could also argue that the MARKET is worried about earnings season, which is now upon us. We could also argue then that earnings are a concern as the economy isn't as strong as everyone thinks it is. Well, I wouldn't try to argue with any of those points. Why? Because I could probably blow holes in all of them, at least for now. One thing I have been rather "adamant" about is that the deeper cyclicals are where bulls should be focusing for bullishness consistency or gains. The scenario has been that this group of stocks would be the early benefactors of an economic recovery. Only when they see earnings flow to the bottom line and coffers begin to fill with cash will they begin increasing their technology budgets. With that said, we need to review the chart of the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) as perhaps see just how important today's trading was and how it may well guide bullish and bearish traders in the future. Scenario stated: "The cyclicals will be our clue to bullish economic activity, or at least the MARKET'S forward looking perception." Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) - Daily Interval The current trend is still upward and it is interesting to see that the Cyclical Index (CYC.X) did "bounce" from the upward trend today. We will also note that the rising 50-day (more intermediate term moving average) also may have helped serve as technical support. A purely objective view would have a bull feeling that he/she won the battle today. For all the "talk" from some that the economy is headed back in the tank, then we would go back to the "old" downward trend (red line streaking across the chart) that dates clear back to a high found on May 10, 1999, that was later attached to the January 10, 2000 high. A market technician would say that this was the longer-term downward trend. It now looks to have been firmly broken to the upside and has slowly lost its "resistance" type of impact on things. One might then think, "If an old downward trend has been broken, then perhaps this group is in the early phase of a bullish longer-term move." The current downward trend is from the recent relative peak found near the 600 level (psychologically a round number), but technically close to an old upward trend dating back to a spike lower from October 18, 2000. Ironically, that October 18 low was violated for only one trading session! That session came right at the extreme lows found on September 21st of last year, just days following the terrorist attacks here in the U.S. One has to wonder who in their right mind would have bought this group of stock under such stressful conditions and times of worry. And why would anyone in that same state of mind still be a willing buyer at the upward trend? A market technician that believes "the trend is your friend" might do such a thing and so might a market participant that believes the economy is still in an early phase of recovery, but still having growth prospects in the future. One of the "key" indices I will be following closely this week and next and monitoring upward trend on is the Cyclical Index. A break much below the 560 level would be a break of trend and put my scenario for economic growth at risk. Now. Some would perhaps jump to the conclusion that I'm "overly optimistic." To the contrary. If you've been a subscriber for a while, some have labeled me an eternal "technology bear." (See Nortel and Juniper Networks above.) How could this analysis in the Cyclicals help a "technology stock trader?" My current thinking is if the cyclicals break upward trend, then technology stocks could really be in for another leg lower. A tech bull that reviews the spreadsheet from our weekly tracking can't help but look at the "Since 12/31/01" column and keep their fingers crossed that the deeper cyclicals march higher and hopefully pull technology stocks along for the ride. And that observation then could become "key" for technology bears. If my scenario for a recovering economy were partially pegged to the deeper cyclicals, then I would think bullishness in the group (holding of upward trend) might have the technology stocks finding buyers. Further bullishness from the cyclicals may well serve as an "alert" for technology bears to be tightening down their stops and implementing some good risk management. The Treasury bond action will also be important. You can look at the weekly gains/losses and perhaps draw the conclusion that the lower Treasury YIELD this week may have had a greater impact on the technology sectors than any other. It sure didn't seem to impact the health care stocks as a group did it? (RXH and HMO). These are less "economically" sensitive groups and Middle East tensions have little impact on our healthcare decisions. The Dow Transportation Average (TRAN) has seen weakness in 3 of the past four weeks. This has concerned many subscribers, as this is one of our "key" indexes we felt would trade bullish under the scenario of a recovering economy. Are the declines due to higher fuel prices, or a less robust economic growth picture? Who knows? I've read and listened to both arguments and each makes sense. It's just easier for a market technician like myself to put the scenario's together (bullish or bearish) and play the trends. Dow Jones Transportation Average Chart - Daily Interval The similarities between the transports and cyclicals really stands out. I'm not doing anything "tricky" with the trends either. Just anchoring to a base, then attaching to a relative low (for upward trend) or high (for downward trend). I will note that the transports did break below their 50-day MA. This is different than we see in the cyclicals. This may also give some credence to the thought that fuel prices are indeed having an adverse affect on the transports. There's a lot of crisscrossing of trends and moving averages near the 2,650 level. If the 2,600 level is violated to the downside and the cyclicals were to also break upward trend, then the scenario for economic growth would be at risk! The reason I'm "fudging" a bit on the 2,600 level is the relative low before a surge higher, and potential "psychological" level of support at the round numbers. If we end up playing some more transports to the bullish side and want to correlate a trade against this index, then I would want to try and correlate a stop with the transports at 2,600. Let's talk briefly about risk and the bullish percent indicators from the point and figure charts. As mentioned in the past, the bullish percent levels for the transports are high. According to Dorsey/Wright and Associates (www.dorseywright.com) the transportation bullish percent reading is 72.60%. Levels above 70% for any sector or index is considered "overbought." However, I have noted in the past that the transports reached a level of 90% bullishness back in August of 1997! It is also interesting to note that this reading reached a high just recently of 74%, but this decline we've seen in price action recently now has the reading at 72.6%. There have been very few sell signals generated thus far. At the same time, it then becomes clear how important it can be for traders in the group to be honoring the stops we profile in the bullish plays. To put things in perspective, the bullish percent reading for this group was as low as 18% back in late September. Don't forget the Utilities! The Utilities Index (UTY.X) didn't make positive gains this week, but they held their ground with an unchanged reading. The recent decline in Treasury YIELDS didn't have the bullish impact I thought it might, but it's still very early. Perhaps the MARKET just doesn't see YIELDS moving much lower. It may also be that institutions are bidding some stocks in the group, but have yet to get aggressive on the buy side. Should YIELDS hit a "magic level," it could flip a switch for strong buying in the group. My scenario for a catalyst in the higher dividend YIELDing utilities is that a drop in Treasury prices may have the utility stocks serving as a "safe haven" among equity funds that have to buy stocks in their portfolios based on their prospectus. With some of the Enron chatter and potential impact on utilities moving a bit further into history, institutions may indeed warm up to the sector if broader stock market declines come about. They sure sold the group when risk was perceived to be high due to Enron. I'd want to shy away with any of the utilities that were even "mentioned" as potential "Enron sufferers" and stick with those names in bullish trends. Those that aren't "overextended" on their charts may provide the best trading moves. The stock I've mentioned before that I like as bullish is shares of Ameren (NYSE:AEE) $42.17 -0.42%. For the week, AEE fell 6-cents and traded in line with the Utility Index (UTY.X). Another stock we mentioned as bullish, but I was not willing to "chase" was TXU Corp. (NYSE:TXU) $55.05 -0.34%. The stock set yet another 52-week high today. TXU Corporation Chart - Daily Interval This chart perhaps becomes the "blue print" for what utility bulls should be looking for. A BIG base of consolidation and then look for the break out of the base. Wait for the break!!! If a trader had "jumped the gun" at anytime before the $50 level was broken in TXU, they were wasting their time and their money! Once that $50 level was broken, demand took over and the stock trades a regression channel like most wouldn't believe. Heck, that looks like a trend for some technology stocks back in the good old days! Yes, they eventually end. But if we were all long at $50.01 we wouldn't care all that much now would we? We would all be snugging a stop to profitability at $54 and checking the mail for that dividend check! For a complete list of the Utility Index (UTY.X) components you can visit the Philadelphia Exchange website at http://www.phlx.com/products/utycomp.htm Wow! It's 03:00 AM EST and there's still so much more I'd like to write about. You've got the most important stuff here. Watch the deep cyclicals and the transports as discussed. Keep an eye on those Treasury YIELDS this week. They still seem to be serving as a very good indicator of the MARKETS perception of risk toward stocks. I'll make it a special point to try and discuss the things we talked about again this week and in tonight's wrap. Have a great weekend and get some rest! Jeff Bailey Senior Market Technician ========================= Play-of-the-Day (Bearish) ========================= (( new high-risk/reward short play )) Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 11.42 change: -0.89 stop: 12.60 Company Description: Juniper Networks leads the industry in turning network innovation into the profitable delivery of edge, core, mobile, and cable Internet services at scale for the New Public Network. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: We've been waiting for a short play opportunity on CSCO for a few weeks now but recent developments make JNPR an attractive candidate for what could be a quick in-and-out play. The end of March was not kind to the networking/telecom group as JNPR pre- announced that Q1 earnings would be lower than expected. Which, as one analyst put it, should not have been a surprise with the negative news and capex cuts all quarter. JNPR's management said that Q1 revenues would be lower amid "cautious spending" by customers. Projects and equipment buys continue to be pushed back and delayed. In other sources we've noted several analysts who think CSCO is really stealing marketshare from JNPR as well. JNPR is set to announce earnings on April 11th. Normally, we do not hold over an earnings announcement, however, as this is a high-risk play we might decide to hold over and see if they guide lower for Q2 and/or offer no guidance, which might be interpreted as the same thing. Since shares of the JNPR have failed at its 50-dma and the MACD is about to rollover just under the zero line, our upside risk should be limited. Mr. Bailey had a number of comments about JNPR in his wrap and we encourage you to look over them. Keep in mind that Jeff didn't know we were adding JNPR as a play this weekend. Our profit target will be a move to the $9 area and we'll start with a stop loss at $12.60, which is just above the 50-dma. Picked on April 5th at $11.42 Change since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/11/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Clear Channel Communications - CCU - close: 51.57 change: +1.69 WHAT TO WATCH: Media stocks (with the exception of poor hapless AOL) have been outperforming the market recently, and CCU is one of the stronger stocks in the group. We considered it as a long play recently, but were hesitant to chase the stock higher after it broke above resistance at $50 in mid-March. Sure enough, shares ran up to $55 and pulled back to retest the previous resistance. Now that we've gotten a bounce from $50, CCU looks like it may resume its upward trend. The oscillators also support this outlook: Daily stochastics have just emerged from oversold and the MACD is curling higher. Low-risk entries can be considered at current levels with a stop under the 200-dma at $49.37. The top of the channel is likely to be near $57.50 to $60.00. --- VeriSign, Inc - VRSN - close: 24.35 change: +0.15 WHAT TO WATCH: The GSO.X software index was crushed for a 12.1% loss this week. Driving the sector lower was negative news from CHKP and PSFT, weakness in MSFT, and an overall bearish NASDAQ. Security software stocks have been especially weak, and that trend only accelerated this week after the CHKP lowered Q1 estimates. The stock has broken below support at $25 and looks to be headed for a retest of near-term lows near $22. VRSN traded an "inside day" today, which offers an action point to evaluate entries. If shares trade below today's low of $24.12, a short position could be initiated with a stop just above today's high of $24.80. We would expect support at the $22 level but the stock might be able to reach $20.00 given the right environment. --- Wellpoint Health Network - WLP - close: 66.02 change: +1.11 WHAT TO WATCH: The HMO.X health provider index has been on fire. It's been hitting all-time highs on a daily basis, and today's close at 523 was no exception. Of all the sectors we watch, only the HMO.X and its companion, the RXH.X healthcare index, were higher this week. WLP is mirroring the sector action and also tagged an all-time high today. The 1.7% move was sufficient to push the stock well above resistance at $65. As long as the sector continues higher, we think WLP should do the same. Bullish positions can be considered at current levels, but be aware that the HMO may consolidate near the top of its ascending channel at 530 and appears to be in need of a pull back. You might want to watch WLP for a pull back as well. --- I T T Industries - ITT - close: 64.82 change: +1.07 WHAT TO WATCH: This is one conglomerate that has been able to out perform the market for the last 2.5 months. Shares have been on fire. Needless to say, the stock is very overbought but the recent pull back in mid-March was met with new buyers when shares hit the $60 level. Now the stock appears poised to breakout above the $65 level and make a run for $70. More adventurous traders might consider it for a short-term play but do so only with a good stop. Earnings are expected on April 24th. --- Conagra Foods - CAG - close: 25.40 change: -0.24 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of CAG have been very strong both before and after their recent earnings report. The company reported almost a 50% jump in profits so you can imagine the positive reception for the stock price. Shares have been in rally mode with strong volume supporting the climb and Thursday the stock broke out to new 52-week highs. Traders might want to consider bullish positions if CAG pulls back to the $25 level. Actually, with shares being overbought, the stock could consolidate a few days sideways but as long as it remains above $25.00 it looks like a decent play. More adventurous types could target shoot dips to $24 but be sure to look for that bounce first. ============= MORE TO WATCH ============= RYL - We like the home builders and RYL is one of the leaders when it comes to relative strength. A low interest rate environment should drive home sales this summer. We would consider this a decent play with a stop just under $90. LEN - We also like Lennar, although it looks a lot weaker than RYL above. However, with the pull back to support, you could buy more shares and risk the same 4% with a stop just under $50. AET - This is another insurance stock but it looks like it's ready for a breakout over $40. It might be good for a short-term play, but the stock looks overbought. RKT - This stock looks VERY interesting. Shares tried twice to break through $22 in March, then pulled back to consolidate. The recent rally has been on strong volume and they closed above $22. BMS - The daily chart looks pretty similar to our new play in MHK. Shares have been consolidating near the 50-dma and MACD is about to produce a bullish crossover. Consider a trigger just above $55 for a bullish play. BLI - Some of the retail stocks have been doing well and BLI is one of them. The recent pull back was met with new buying and now shares have hit new relative highs. YUM - Tricon Global has been somewhat resistance to the recent weakness in the market and a move over $60 looks inviting. SBUX - This one looks a lot more bullish on the PnF chart but the daily chart looks less extended. Could be a possible play with a close over $24.50. GR - Aerospace/Defense has been a strong group and we would consider GR a potential candidate with a close over $32.50. IOM - This long forgotten stock is making a comeback. High risk traders could buy this with a tight stop and aim for a move to PnF resistance at $13.00. However, a better entry point might be a dip to $9.75 or $10.00. CMCSK - Watch this one for another close under $30, however, we would probably wait or use a trigger under $28.90 before we would go short. SFA - Consider this one a potential short with a trigger between $19.99 and $19.89. Target would be $16.00. EDS - This is another good looking tech short with a breakdown under support on both the daily and PnF charts. The high volume looks like conviction by the sellers. ================ Market Sentiment ================ Sentiment Check By Eric Utley The sector scorecard finished mixed in last Friday's session. Obviously the same thing could be said for the major averages. The only real sectors where we saw concentrated buying efforts were the consumer-related groups and financials. The HMO Index (HMO.X) bucked the weakness in the broader health care group to earn the day's best performing sector spot. Elsewhere, some cyclical groups finished fractionally higher. Weakness was evident in the broader energy sector, with both the Oil Index (OIX.X) and Oil Service Index (OSX.X) falling 1.01 percent. Then there was the ubiquity of selling in tech. Networking (NWX.X) was hammered, so was Optical (FOP.X) and Hardware (GHA.X). The fear gauges of the market finished mixed last Friday. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) closed lower, while the Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN.X) finished higher. The divergence mirrored what we observed in the broader market. Concerning the VIX, despite its recent pop, it's still pretty darn low. Accordingly, so is fear. The put/call ratios have been ticking higher in light of the weakness in stocks, but the QQQ number finished dangerously low last Friday despite the 1.12 percent drop in the underlying. There, too, we see signs of complacency. Last week we saw several interesting developments in the bullish percent data. Most interesting was the reversal in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Bullish Percent ($BPINDU) into Bear Alert. Then Friday, the S&P 100 Bullish Percent ($BPOEX) reversed into Bull Correction. Clearly, the bearish case is strengthening through what the bullish percent data reveal. The only major bullish data point in this weekend's sentiment indicators is the extreme nature of the 5-day ARMS Index, which is back above the magical 1.50 mark. In recent weeks, when the indicator gets above 1.50, we've seen a very short term pop in the market, but nothing of substance. Finally, the new high/new low index has brought about a lot of questions from readers. The divergence from the broader averages has been of special concern. My only explanation is that there are a lot of small and mid cap stocks, which are not included in the major market averages, that continue hitting new yearly highs. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 11350 52-week Low : 8062 Current : 10272 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10328 50-dma: 10163 200-dma: 9964 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1316 52-week Low : 945 Current : 1223 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1137 50-dma: 1128 200-dma: 1138 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 2071 52-week Low : 1089 Current : 1377 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1428 50-dma: 1465 200-dma: 1525 Health Care ($HMO) The HMO was the best performing sector in last Friday's trading. The index finished 1.87 percent higher to a new all-time high. Sector leaders included First Health Group (NASDAQ:FHCC), Humana (NYSE:HUM), Mid Atlantic Medical (NYSE:MME), Anthem (NYSE:ATH), and WellPoint (NYSE:WLP). 52-week High: 524 52-week Low : 366 Current : 524 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 510 50-dma: 490 200-dma: 437 Networking ($NWX) The NWX was the worst performing sector in last Friday's session. The index finished 5.54 percent lower, not too far off of its 52-week low. Nortel's (NYSE:NT) debt downgrade was to blame. Individual losers included Nortel, Extreme Networks (NASDAQ:EXTR), Juniper Networks (NASDAQ:JNPR), JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ:JDSU), and ONI Systems (NASDAQ:ONIS). 52-week High: 503 52-week Low : 201 Current : 225 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 238 50-dma: 262 200-dma: 295 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Volatility The VIX reversed lower in last Friday's session after nearly reaching its 50-dma in Thursday's trading. A trade back below 20 would be worrisome for the bulls. The VXN finished higher in last Friday's session, but well off of its daily highs. The index traced an inside day as well. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 21.11 -0.66 Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN) - 40.82 +0.60 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.78 442,326 343,742 Equity Only 0.70 378,323 263,981 OEX 0.54 12,255 6,618 QQQ 0.45 70,125 31,833 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 64 + 0 Bull Confirmed NASDAQ-100 45 + 0 Bull Correction DOW 67 + 0 Bear Alert S&P 500 72 + 0 Bull Confirmed S&P 100 72 - 1 Bull Correction Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-Day Arms Index 1.59 10-Day Arms Index 1.36 21-Day Arms Index 1.20 55-Day Arms Index 1.22 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when the do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals Advancers Decliners NYSE 1867 1258 NASDAQ 1574 1882 New Highs New Lows NYSE 141 38 NASDAQ 155 51 Volume (in millions) NYSE 1,106 NASDAQ 1,353 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 04/02/02 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 S&P commercials grew even more bearish during the most recent reporting period, although by a smaller rate than the period two weeks ago. The group shed more longs than shorts for a small increase in the group's net short position. Small traders didn't get any more bullish since reaching their yearly high, but they didn't get any more bearish neither. The group's position remained near the yearly bullish high. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 03/19/02 322,938 410,494 (87,556) (11.9%) 03/26/02 317,671 410,186 (92,515) (12.7%) 04/02/02 313,294 406,337 (93,403) (13.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01 Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/19/02 145,262 43,066 102,196 54.3% 03/26/02 148,111 40,409 107,702 57.1% 04/02/02 149,449 43,139 106,310 55.2% Most bearish reading of the year: 36,513 - 5/01/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02 NASDAQ-100 Nasdaq commercials grew less bearish last week by reducing their net short position by about 3,000 contracts. Small traders went in the opposite direction with a significant drop in their net bullish position. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 03/19/02 24,792 33,699 (8,907) (15.2%) 03/26/02 25,275 33,880 (8,605) (14.5%) 04/02/02 26,211 31,840 (5,629) (9.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 7,774 - 12/21/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/19/02 11,637 5,527 6,110 35.6% 03/26/02 12,760 6,264 6,496 34.1% 04/02/02 10,615 7,769 2,846 15.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (9,877) - 12/21/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,460 - 3/13/01 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Dow commercials grew slightly more bullish last week by adding a few longs and maintaining their short position. The net long position increased by fewer than 1,000 contracts. Small traders dumped a few longs, resulting in an increase to the group's net short position. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 03/19/02 20,858 13,283 7,575 22.2% 03/26/02 17,973 12,539 5,434 17.8% 04/02/02 18,717 12,549 6,168 19.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/19/02 4,651 10,367 (5,716) (38.1%) 03/26/02 5,818 9,308 (3,490) (23.1%) 04/02/02 5,192 9,007 (3,815) (26.9%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,777) - 10/12/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. 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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 04-05-2002 section 2 of 3 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/d05b_2.asp ================================================================= In section two: Net Bulls New Bearish Plays: HGSI, MU Bullish Play Updates: SNE Bearish Play Updates: BCE, BRCM, CSCO, ISSX Closed Bearish Plays: CVG, RETK Stock Bottom / Active Trader New Bullish Plays: ACF, MHK New Bearish Plays: AGN Bullish Play Updates: DOL, OHP Closed Bullish Plays: CAH, PSS High Risk/Reward New Bearish Plays: JNPR Bullish Play Updates: HIG, LUV Bearish Play Updates: QCOM Long-Term Plays New Non-tech Play: UNM Non-tech Updates: HC, PETM, SPLS Split Trader APOL: 3-for-2 split announcement UOPX: 4-for-3 split announcement ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== =============== NB New Plays =============== ----------------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- Human Genome Sciences - HGSI - cls: 19.05 chg: -1.09 stop: 20.45 Company Description: Human Genome Sciences is a company with the mission to treat and cure disease by bringing new gene-based drugs to patients. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: The first sign of trouble for the biotech sector came on Tuesday, when the biotech index (BTK.X) closed under support at 500. Bears took the opportunity to pile on, and the index finished the week with a 7.4% loss. It's now threatening to test its near- term lows near 450. We like HGSI as a short because it has already broken below recent lows. The $20 support level was abandoned today, as shares lost 5.4% to close at levels not seen since 1999. With no visible support levels, we think this play offers a favorable risk/reward setup. Entries can be evaluated on a move below $19. This would create a double-bottom sell signal on the p-n-f chart. The biotech selling was fast and furious this week, so we wouldn't be surprised to see shares of HGSI rebound. If is the case, a failed rally at $20 could also be a good time consider getting short. Our initial stop for this play is $20.45, just above today's high. Regression channel users will note that a channel tool placed on the stock when the trend changed to bearish in late November puts the bottom of the channel near $17.50 to $16.00. This will be our initial target area and we'll re-evaluate as the play moves along. Editor's note: the one thing about shorting biotech stocks is that you ALWAYS need a stop. You never know when some company is going to announce they have discovered a cure for cancer. It may be an exceptionally small risk but it's still a risk. Even if it's a false alarm, you won't want to be short during the explosion higher. Picked on April 5th at $19.05 Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 02/14/02 (confirmed) --- Micron Technology - MU - close: 29.85 change: -0.74 stop: 32.05 Company Description: Micron Technology, Inc., and its subsidiaries manufacture and market DRAMs, very fast SRAMs, Flash Memory, other semiconductor components and memory modules. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: The SOX.X semiconductor index is currently resting on support near 570. While the sector didn't suffer the sharp selling that hit software and networking last week, it may just be a matter of time. According to Dorsey Wright, the SOX.X went "bear confirmed" yesterday. This doesn't guarantee that the sector will tank, but it does indicate that risk is weighted to the upside. We think MU is a good candidate to take advantage of semiconductor-sector negativity. The stock has been weak since breaking its 100-day and 200-day MA's on Tuesday. Today shares gave up 2.4% and finished at its lowest close YTD while also closing under the $30 round-number support level. The p-n-f chart looks especially bearish. MU is currently on a quadruple bottom selling signal and has broken its bullish support at $32. Bearish entries can be considered on continued weakness from current levels, or on failed rallies to $31. Those wanting to confirm bearish sector sentiment could wait for the SOX.X to break below support at 570. Our initial stop is at $32.05, slightly above Wednesday's high. Picked on April 5th at $29.85 Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 03/21/02 (confirmed) =============== NB Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Sony Corp (ADR) - SNE - close: 51.50 change: -1.21 stop: 47.99 SNE continued yesterday's slide and lost 2.3%, while the Nikkei also finished in the red. The light volume behind today's decline indicates there was little conviction in the selling. In last night's update we mentioned that a pullback to $51.50 could offer a potential entry point. Now that this has occurred, traders can jump on with relatively low risk by placing a stop just under the $50 support level. On the same token, conservative traders could also enter on a bounce from $50. Please note that we are leaving our stop under the $48 level for now. Picked on April 4th at $53.01 Gain since picked: -1.51 Earnings Date 04/25/02 (unconfirmed) -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- B C E Inc. - BCE - close: 17.60 change: -0.27 stop: 18.26 *new* There has been no improvement in the telecom group from Thursday. As a matter of fact, the breakdown in the IXTCX combined telecom index continues and a retest of the 160 support level looks imminent. In the meantime, shares of BCE traded lower on Friday but once again appeared to find support near the $17.40 area. The question now is can this support level hold with the sector falling lower next week. If shares bounce we would look for possible resistance at $18.00 or its 10-dma at $18.06. We're going to lower our stop to $18.26, which should protect a 5% gain in the play. Short-term traders should probably be looking for the exits while we will continue to lower our stops with the expectation that BCE might be able to trade $15.00 in the next couple of weeks. Picked on March 22nd at $19.40 Gain since picked: +1.80 Earnings Date 04/24/02 (unconfirmed) --- Broadcom Corp - BRCM - close: 32.60 change: -1.76 stop: 35.75 *new* Wall Street appears to be growing more concerned with chips stocks and the SOX closed down 8 points to just above the 570 and 50-dma support levels. With a number of chip stocks trading just above support, like Intel hovering above the $30 level and its 200-dma, we suspect that investors may take any negative earnings comments as an excuse to take profits from the 2002 strength the sector has enjoyed so far. This could mean a retest of the 500 support level for the chip sector (SOX.X). Granted, some of the chip equipment and fabrication makers look stronger they could also see profit taking with the expectation they will lead the rebound higher once the industry turns around. Meanwhile, BRCM, which has exposure to the telecom industry, is likely to suffer the brunt of both weakness in chips and the telecom group. Shares of BRCM lost five percent on Friday and posted a bearish engulfing candlestick. This is the lowest close in five weeks for the stock and a test of support near $30 looks inevitable. Traders need to decide whether they want to look for the exits and cover for a gain as the stock approaches $30 or hang on and see if the overall weakness expected in the group might produce a move closer to the $25 level for BRCM. We have not decided yet ourselves but we are going to lower our stop to $35.75, which is breakeven. Once the play moves into a gain of 10% or higher we'll adjust our stop to protect a 5 to 6 percent gain. Picked on March 25th at $35.75 Gain since picked: +3.15 Earnings Date 04/17/02 (confirmed) --- Cisco Systems - CSCO - close: 16.15 change: -0.72 stop: see text All of the negative factors hitting the telecom and networking industry we have been outlining these last couple of weeks finally came to weigh on shares of CSCO this Friday. The stock lost over four percent right after touching its 50-dma near the $17.00 level. With the stock's MACD just beginning to show signs of a rollover from under the zero line, we feel somewhat confident that a bearish trade might eventually pay out for CSCO. After waiting this long for a move to occur we're going to stick to our guns and wait for shares to hit our trigger point of $15.90. However, don't forget that we have a limit on the downside. If for some reason CSCO gaps below the $15.50 mark, we will not enter the play. Our initial target was for a quick move to the $14.25 level but we may re-evaluate this and consider a lower target with the new developments hitting the telecom and networking sectors. In the meantime, if you just can't wait, check out our new high-risk play on JNPR this weekend. Picked on March xth at $xx.xx <- See text Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 05/07/02 (unconfirmed) --- Internet Security - ISSX - cls: 20.36 chg: -0.54 stop: 22.58 *new* Readers following this sector already know that security stocks were hit hard when CHKP warned this week that Q1 earnings would be below estimates. The whole niche of stocks have been under pressure for days but there appears to be no let up of sellers. With the GSO.X software index under its February low and under the psychological level of 150 combined with the lack of leadership from MSFT and other big name software stocks, we don't see a lot of support of the group as a whole. ISSX is hovering near the $20 support level but we're not sure it's going to survive. The stock attempted a rally on Friday morning with a strong spike up to the $22 level but bears quickly pounced and the rest of the day was spent closer to the $20 mark. The longer-term picture painted by the point-and-figure chart is not optimistic for ISSX. The bearish vertical count from the February sell signal points to a $15 price target. However, the newer and fresh bearish vertical count and current column of O's is projecting a $7 price target for ISSX. This last target could be a challenge since the stock should have very strong support at $10. The $15 level seems more attainable and shares do have some support there from mid-October 2001. The company just confirmed that they would announce earnings on Tuesday, April 16th, after the close around 4:00 p.m. ET. If we're still in the play by then we'll likely close our positions to avoid any surprises with their announcement even though we don't expect any good news. The new cautious tone for security stocks was reinforced again on Friday with ISSX receiving a downgrade from a strong buy to a market perform. There are a number of ways for traders to manage their risk here. More conservative traders could use the 5-dma near $21.45, which has been acting overhead resistance for two weeks, as a guide to place their stop. Doing so should protect a gain of 5%. Or traders could use the 50-hour-ma near $22.00, which would coincide closely with Friday's high to place their stop. Because we anticipate a strong downside move in the short- term future we don't want to be stopped out prematurely so the newsletter will lower our stop to breakeven at $22.58. However, as soon as ISSX closes under the $20 level we'll probably tighten our stop significantly. Picked on March 26th at $22.58 Gain since picked: +2.22 Earnings Date 04/16/02 (confirmed) =============== NB Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Convergys Corp - CVG - close: 29.88 change: +0.84 stop: 30.01 The NWX.X networking index took 5.5% beating today after MCDT lowered its Q1 outlook for the second time and NT's debt rating was slashed by Moody's. One would think that this would translate into a negative day for CVG, but that wasn't the case. As a matter of fact, the stock managed to rally almost 3%. The bulls managed to overrun resistance at $29.50 and $30.00. Our stop at $30.01 was also violated, which extracted us from this play with a $1.02 loss. In addition to today's relative strength, the MACD and stochastics are both looking bullish. At this point it appears CVG has more upside potential but it will have to break through both its 50 and 200-dma's near $31 first. Picked on April 1st at $28.99 Change since picked: -1.02 Earnings Date 01/24/02 (confirmed) --- Retek Inc. - RETK - close: 25.64 change: +2.48 stop: 25.01 We were feeling pretty good about the way this short play had progressed. RETK dropped sharply after giving up support at $25, which was good for more than a 7% gain from our entry point. This prompted us to lower our stop to just above break-even last night. As it turns out, it's a good thing we did. The stock added 10.7% on Friday and moved well above our stop at $25.01, which took us out with a loss of two cents. We were unable to find anything in the news today that might have been a catalyst for the rally. There was an upgrade by BAC on Thursday but RETK didn't react to it. Shares may run into resistance at the converging 100-day and 200-day MA's near $26.75. However, software is full of weak stocks and we'd rather look elsewhere for bearish trades if this one can fight the trend. Picked on April 3rd at $24.99 Gain since picked: -0.02 Earnings Date 01/22/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== =============== AT New Plays =============== ----------------- New Bullish Plays ----------------- Americredit - ACF - close: 42.13 change: +2.95 stop: 38.49 Company Description: AmeriCredit Corp. is the largest independent middle-market auto finance company in North America. Using its branch network and strategic alliances with auto groups and banks, the company makes auto loans to consumers who are typically unable to obtain financing from traditional sources. AmeriCredit has one million active loan customers throughout the United States and Canada and more than $12 billion in managed auto receivables. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: A couple of months ago, market pundits were projecting doom and gloom for shares of ACF. The company, known for its high- interest car loans to consumers with less than sterling credit ratings, has done booming business in 2001. Their loan portfolio had ballooned by about 50% to more than $12 billion. Now with the economic slowdown starting to affect loan repayments analysts were correctly calling for caution on the stock. It made a lot of sense. If ACF was having trouble collecting payments then cash flows could be seriously jeopardized. The markets knew this and the short-interest on the stock was growing. When shares started to spike higher in March, bears just saw it as a better entry point to short it more. We've been watching ACF since early March waiting to see if the rally would have enough strength to power it through the 200-dma. We're sure that stunned shorts were speechless when the stock broke through the 200-dma mid-March. Fortunately for the bears, the $40 level, which was the top of the window from the gap down in September, was just above it and has been a lid on shares for four weeks. Now shares of ACF have rallied above huge resistance on twice the average volume and we think shorts are gonna get squeezed! You can argue all you want about the company's fundamentals and we won't disagree since we're just trying to play any short squeeze and the technical breakout. From different sources we suspect that there is anywhere from 23 to 30 million shares short on the stock with only 84 million shares outstanding. Average volume is about 2.6 million a day. If the bears panic we think ACF might be able to shoot up to the $50 level before rolling over again. We don't plan to be in the play too long as ACF is set to announce earnings on Monday, April 15th, after the close. We're going to start the play with a stop at $38.49, which is just a bit wider than we would prefer but still less than our 10% guideline. A dip to $40 would be playable but we don't expect one to occur. We will exit the play if ACF trades at $49.75 or above. Interested traders can look for a new report on shares short that is due to come out on Monday or Tuesday this week (sorry, it only comes out once a month). Picked on April 5th at $42.13 Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/15/02 (confirmed) --- Mohawk Industries - MHK - close: 61.80 change: +1.50 stop: 58.49 Company Description: Mohawk is a leading supplier of flooring for both residential and commercial applications and a producer of woven and tufted broadloom carpet, rugs and ceramic tile. The Company designs, manufactures and markets premier carpet brand names and a broad line of home products including rugs, throws, pillows and bedspreads. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: The housing boom has been very profitable for carpet maker Mohawk. The stock has done very well but shares have pulled with profit taking in the housing stocks through the month of March. It appears the stock has bottomed near its 50-dma, which coincides with the MACD beginning to curl into a bullish pattern near the zero line. We like the positive 2.4% gain on Friday that put the stock back above the $60 level of potential resistance. The next few months look good for MHK. Market commentators believe the Fed may be on hold for a while before they increase interest rates and with summer coming up, a prime time for home sales, the housing group is likely to continue its bullish pace with mortgage rates still relatively near historic lows. Of course with people buying and building new homes, there will be a growing need for carpet. We are initially going to target a move to the $70 level and start with a stop at $58.49. Picked on April 5th at $61.80 Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 02/06/02 (confirmed) ----------------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- Allergan - AGN - close: 58.40 change: -1.48 stop: 62.01 Company Description: Allergan, Inc., headquartered in Irvine, California, is a technology- driven global health care company providing eye care and specialty pharmaceutical products worldwide. Allergan develops and commercializes products in the eye care pharmaceutical, ophthalmic surgical device, over-the- counter contact lens care, movement disorder, and dermatological markets that deliver value to its customers, satisfy unmet medical needs, and improve patients' lives. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: We hate to say it but drugs may not be the safe-haven they are normally thought this time around. The recent earnings bomb unloaded by the likes of Bristol Myers Squibb has put the whole sector into a bearish spiral and we've noticed a very large number of technical breakdowns across the board for both drug and biotech issues. One such stock that is hitting new 52-week lows is AGN. We wanted to add AGN on Thursday night but just ran out of time. Fortunately, shares did not get away from us but the 2.4% decline on Friday was made with very strong volume. Furthermore, by waiting shares of AGN merely confirmed the breakdown under the September lows of $60.00. The PnF chart doesn't look any better and is showing a bearish triangle breakdown. Traditionally, playing a PnF triangle breakout (either way) is a high-odds success play if the "market" is moving the same direction. This would appear to be the case. We have broader market weakness in the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P...we have weakness in the DRG.X and the BTK.X and AGN just broke heavy support. Sounds like all the cards are stacked in favor of the bears. Which of course makes us skeptical since nothing is supposed to be too obvious. We like it as a play and we're targeting an initial drop to the $50 area but traders may want to leg into this play half a position at a time. Failed rallies at $60 work just as well as continued weakness. We'll start with a stop at $62.01, which is just above Thursday's high. Picked on April 5th at $58.40 Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/22/02 (unconfirmed) =============== AT Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Dole Food CO. - DOL - close: 30.76 change: +0.04 stop: 30.31 Volume was tepid on Wall Street today, and DOL really exemplified the lack of interest. The stock traded only 72K shares...that's the lightest volume day YTD. As you might expect, the range was also very narrow. Last night we strongly considered dropping DOL but instead tightened our stop to $30.31. The recent trading pattern isn't necessarily weak, but we'd rather have our money in stocks that are not trading sideways. If DOL breaks higher next week look for a move over $31.46 to consider going long. Unless this occurs we wouldn't be looking for entries at current levels. Those investors willing to take a longer-term, three month to six months, might want to consider entries near the $30 level or near the 50-dma. The latter would be a good place to use a stop loss. Picked on March 1st at $30.94 Gain since picked: -0.18 Earnings Date 01/31/02 (confirmed) --- Oxford Health - OHP - close: 41.37 change: +0.54 stop: 39.90 Of all the sectors we watch, only two finished the week with gains: The HMO.X health provider index and RXH.X healthcare index. The latter saw a new near-term high today, while the HMO.X closed at an all-time high of 523. Given the sector strength, you'd expect that OHP would also be trading all-time highs. Unfortunately, that stubborn resistance at $42 just won't give way. The latest two sessions were actually spent consolidating below this level. Today's 1.32% gain made up lost ground from Thursday, but shares didn't come close to testing the $42 level. Due to the inability of OHP to rally over resistance, we're tightening our stop to $40.45, just under yesterday's low. That should protect a 5% gain. As far as gaming new entries, wait for a move over $42. This would obviously be a positive technical development, but keep those stops tight. The HMO.X is quickly approaching the upper end of its regression channel at 530, at which point we expect some sector consolidation. Check out this weekend's watch list for other healthcare stocks on the move. Picked on March 8th at $38.55 Gain since picked +2.82 Earnings Date 02/05/02 (confirmed) =============== AT Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bullish Plays -------------------- Cardinal Health - CAH - close: 68.28 change: -1.81 stop: 67.49 Despite gains in both the HMO.X health provider index and RXH.X Healthcare index, CAH was unable to maintain support at $70. The stock dropped all the way to an intraday low of $67.10 before closing for 2.6% loss. The stock bounced near the bottom of its ascending channel, but due to the possible resistance at $70 we wouldn't recommend opening positions at current levels. We couldn't find any company-specific news to explain today's weakness, but it may have something to do with the fact that CAH has a good deal of exposure to the pharmaceutical business. Drug stocks have been weak since BMY announced an earnings warning earlier this week. Picked on March 22nd at $70.05 Gain since picked: -2.56 Earnings Date 04/23/02 (confirmed) --- Payless Shoesource - PSS - close: 60.13 change: +0.04 stop: N/A That's it...We're giving PSS the boot! The stock had ample time to perform, and it's done nothing but trade sideways. Today's weakness compared to the RLX.X retail index was the last straw. We're dropping it as of the closing price of $60.13. A case could be made that shares are coiling for a big move as the MACD drifts toward the zero line. Of course Murphy's law will dictate that PSS will post a strong rally next week just to spite us. Traders who have lasted this long and not yet willing to give up might want to consider raising their stop to just under the 50- dma currently at $59.12. Picked on March 15th at $61.74 Change since picked: -1.61 Earnings Date 02/22/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section ================================================================== =============== HR New Plays =============== ----------------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 11.42 change: -0.89 stop: 12.60 Company Description: Juniper Networks leads the industry in turning network innovation into the profitable delivery of edge, core, mobile, and cable Internet services at scale for the New Public Network. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: We've been waiting for a short play opportunity on CSCO for a few weeks now but recent developments make JNPR an attractive candidate for what could be a quick in-and-out play. The end of March was not kind to the networking/telecom group as JNPR pre- announced that Q1 earnings would be lower than expected. Which, as one analyst put it, should not have been a surprise with the negative news and capex cuts all quarter. JNPR's management said that Q1 revenues would be lower amid "cautious spending" by customers. Projects and equipment buys continue to be pushed back and delayed. In other sources we've noted several analysts who think CSCO is really stealing marketshare from JNPR as well. JNPR is set to announce earnings on April 11th. Normally, we do not hold over an earnings announcement, however, as this is a high-risk play we might decide to hold over and see if they guide lower for Q2 and/or offer no guidance, which might be interpreted as the same thing. Since shares of the JNPR have failed at its 50-dma and the MACD is about to rollover just under the zero line, our upside risk should be limited. Mr. Bailey had a number of comments about JNPR in his wrap and we encourage you to look over them. Keep in mind that Jeff didn't know we were adding JNPR as a play this weekend. Our profit target will be a move to the $9 area and we'll start with a stop loss at $12.60, which is just above the 50-dma. Picked on April 5th at $11.42 Change since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/11/02 (confirmed) =============== HR Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Hartford Financial Svc - HIG - cls: 69.12 chg: +0.62 stop: 66.04 The relative strength HIG had displayed all week paid off on Friday. The Dow Jones finished with a small gain, while HIG outperformed and added 0.90%. The stock is benefiting from overall bullishness in the insurance sector. Wall Street seems to think that rising premium rates will translate into continued growth for insurance stocks. ALL, MET, PGR, and PRU are all breaking to new near-term highs. HIG hit a near-term intraday high of $69.47 before pulling back to close at levels not seen since last summer. Our initial profit target of $70 is now within striking distance. This level will likely act as resistance, and conservative traders may want to consider taking their money off the table as HIG approximates this level. However, in light of the impressive sector strength we're looking for a break above psychological resistance at $70. This would also create a double-top breakout on the p-n-f chart. If shares do breakout above the $70 level we are anticipating a quick move to the $72.50 area, where we will consider closing the play for a gain. More patient investors may want to hang on and see if HIG can reach $75 or higher. Traders looking for an entry could open positions on a close above $70. The PI newsletter is currently up 5.1% on this play. Picked on March 13th at $65.74 Gain since picked: +3.38 Earnings Date 01/28/02 (confirmed) --- Southwest Airlines - LUV - cls: 18.51 chg: -0.43 stop: 17.99 The XAL.X airline index traded flat on Friday, as investors avoided taking any new positions ahead of what could be a news- heavy weekend. AMR, DAL, NWAC, and UAL all declined, while LUV surrendered most of yesterday's gains and lost 2.3%. It's interesting to note that crude oil (cl02k) traded lower for the second day in a row. Airlines will likely head higher if that trend continues. Of course, the wild card in this scenario is how things play out in the Mid East. Assuming nothing causes oil to skyrocket higher, traders looking for entries can consider going long on a move over today's high of $19.17, which is just over the 100-dma. A dip to the $18.20 may also present a very favorable buying opportunity since it has been support for the last couple of weeks. Besides, entering near $18.20 would reduce your risk to less than a 25 cents. It would not hurt to confirm positive sector sentiment so watch for the XAL.X to move over its 200-dma at 101.62. Picked on April 4th at $18.94 Gain since picked: -0.43 Earnings Date 04/18/02 (unconfirmed) -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 35.91 change: -0.69 stop: 38.21 *new* QCOM continued its pattern of relative weakness today, as it led the NASDAQ lower and lost nearly 2%. The intraday trading action was decidedly bearish. QCOM briefly moved over $37 this morning, only to have the bears jump on immediately. Shares dropped as far as $35.59, which is a new near-term low. The IXTCX combined telecom index looks weak as well, and is approaching support at 160. At this point it looks the stock could retest its February lows near $32-$33. However, nothing goes down in a straight line, and we wouldn't be surprised to see QCOM bounce back to the $37.00 to $37.50 levels before heading lower. Daily stochastics are also buried in oversold. Of course, they can stay pinned there indefinitely. If today's low is broken, the next obstacle will be psychological support at $35. Conservative traders might want to consider taking their money off the table if the stock bounces from this level. PI is currently up 9% on this play. In order to protect ourselves, we're going to lower our stop to $38.21. This is just above the 10-dma, which has pressured the stock over the past two weeks. More conservative traders should feel free to use a tighter stop to protect their gains. Keep an eye on the IXTCX. The combined telecom index fell through support at the 170 level this week and a test of support at 160 looks imminent. Picked on March 25th at $39.47 Change since picked: +3.56 Earnings Date 04/24/02 (unconfirmed) ================================================================== Long-Term Plays (LT) section ================================================================== ============ LT New Plays ============ ----------------- New Non-Tech Play ----------------- Unumprovident Corp - UNM - close: 28.48 change: +0.38 stop: 26.89 Company Description The subsidiaries of UnumProvident Corporation offer a comprehensive, integrated portfolio of products and services backed by industry-leading return-to-work resources and disability expertise. UnumProvident is the leader in income protection, providing insurance and services to individuals, both directly and through their employers. UnumProvident has more than 100 years of experience in creating innovative solutions that protect the rewards of work: paychecks, assets and lifestyles. UnumProvident was named one of Fortune's top ten most admired insurance companies. UnumProvident Corporation has operations in the United States, Canada, the U.K., Japan, and elsewhere around the world. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: When it comes to economic and earnings uncertainty, it appears Wall Street might be turning to the insurance sector as a safe haven to park some money. UNM is one of the larger accident and health insurers and shares rallied strongly after the Feb. 6th earnings report. We think the stock makes an intriguing play for a longer-term bullish position. If money is rotating into the sector then UNM might benefit as it is significantly less expensive than many of its counterparts. UNM has a trailing 12- month P/E of just 11.7 while the sector average is 25 and the S&P average is 31. The stock recently bounced off support near $27.00, which is the second time shares have done so since early February. Friday's close over potential resistance at $28 and its 50-dma look like a good signal to go long. MACD confirms the move with a fresh bullish crossover. We also checked the point- and-figure chart, which is showing the stock working on a bounce from its rising bullish support. We suspect shares might be able to trade to the $35 level in the next three to four months but UNM does have some old resistance at $33. Therefore our three- month target will be $33.00 or about 15.7 percent from current levels. We will start the play with a stop at $26.89, which is about 5.5 percent from our entry. Traders can expect some resistance between $29.70 and $30.00. Picked on April 5th at $28.48 Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 05/07/02 (not confirmed) =============== LT Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Hanover Compressor - HC - close: 18.80 change: -0.73 stop: 15.99 An interesting day for HC on Friday. The stock pulled back as we expected it to but during the regular trading day shares never traded below the $19.00 mark. Yet somehow, right at the close, shares of HC went from $19.02 to $18.80. Therefore, we have to take the gap down at $18.80 as our entry price. If you read our long-term play description on Wednesday, then you know that we would prefer to pick an entry price near $18.50 or even closer to the $18.25 to $18.00 level since we view $18 as strong support for shares of HC. As an individual investor you might consider waiting to see if HC continues to pullback a bit before jumping in. As discussed in the original write up, we are initiating the play with a stop at $15.99. More conservative investors may want to wait for HC to close over the $20 and 100-dma level of resistance before committing any capital. Entered on April 5th at $18.80 Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date June/02 (not confirmed) --- PETsMART - PETM - close: 13.98 change: +0.03 stop: 13.25 *new* Nothing to complain about here. The slow climb higher has gone on unabated in shares of PETM, which seem unaffected by the broader market weakness. The stock is without a doubt severely overbought but it appears there are no sellers. One could expect profit taking at any time and a likely cause would be a broker downgrading the stock on a valuation call. Because of this we are going to inch up our stop to $13.25, which is under the 15- dma - a level of support for the last five weeks. We are reverting to short-term strategies to protect profits but long- term investors can still play the stock. However, investors looking for new entries should probably do so only on pullbacks to the 50-dma, currently near $12.00. If this occurs you may want to watch it for a day or two for signs it is not the beginning of a more prolonged bout of profit taking. While we keep the play open we're altering our strategy on the exit side. We suspect that the $15.00 level might be resistance just as the $14.00 level has been this week. Therefore, we'll close the play if PETM can trade to $14.90 assuming we're not stopped out first. Picked on January 25th at $10.32 Gain since picked: +3.66 Earnings Date June/02 (not confirmed) --- Staples, Inc - SPLS - cls: 20.64 chg: +0.54 stop: 18.44 Wow, what a difference a couple of days can make. We were somewhat cautious on Wednesday with the stock hovering above its 50-dma. Fortunately, buyers have chosen to step back into the stock and the current bullish pattern on the point-and-figure chart is still unbroken. Speaking of the PnF chart, SPLS is still showing a bullish vertical target of almost $30.00. We're probably not going to hang on to it long enough to get there but we wouldn't mind taking our money off the table near the $25.00 mark. Doing some research this weekend turned up a growing trend of strength for a lot of the smaller office supply stocks. If fund managers are putting money to work in the group then SPLS is likely to be a magnet for a lot of that dough. The MACD is about to produce a bullish crossover and stochastics are looking very positive. Friday is a new closing high for the stock and the rally came on stronger volume of almost 5 million shares. New entries might be considered here but you may want to use a tighter stop than the one currently used by the newsletter. Picked on January 4th at $18.44 Gain since picked: +2.20 Earnings Date June/02 (unconfirmed) ================================================================== Split Trader (ST) section ================================================================== Split Announcements ------------------- Apollo declares 3-for-2 split for APOL 4-for-3 split for UOPX Apollo Group Inc. (Nasdaq: APOL) announced today that it had authorized a 3-for-2 split of both its Class A and Class B common stock. Furthermore, they gave the green light on a 4-for-3 split of its University of Phoenix Online common stock (Nasdaq: UOPX). The split will come in the form of a stock dividend and will be distributed on April 25, 2002 to stockholders of record on April 15, 2002. Fractional shares will be paid in cash. APOL also split 3:2 in 1998 and 2001. UOPX also split 3:2 in 2001. APOL closed at $52.09 on Thursday, while UOPX closed at $39.20. For current quotes, click here: http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=APOL http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=UOPX About the company Apollo Group Inc. has been providing higher education programs to working adults for over 25 years. Apollo Group Inc., operates through its subsidiaries The University of Phoenix Inc., Institute for Professional Development, The College for Financial Planning Institutes Corp., and Western International University Inc. (source: company press release) ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 04-05-2002 Section 3 of 3 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/d05b_3.asp ================================================================= In section three: Market Watch for Week of April 8th - Major Earnings - Stock Splits - Economic Reports Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= ================================================== Market Watch for the week of April 8th ================================================== ------------------------ Major Earnings This Week ------------------------ Symbol Company Date Comment EPS Est ------------------------- MONDAY ------------------------------- AMB AMB Property Mon, Apr 08 After the Bell 0.62 FVB First Virginia Banks Mon, Apr 08 -----N/A----- 0.85 ------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------ ABT Abbott Laboratories Tue, Apr 09 Before the Bell 0.54 DNA Genentech Tue, Apr 09 After the Bell 0.22 INFY Infosys Tech Lmtd Tue, Apr 09 After the Bell 0.33 MTG MGIC Investment Corp. Tue, Apr 09 Before the Bell 1.47 MSM MSC Industrial Direct Tue, Apr 09 Before the Bell 0.12 RIMM Research InMotion Lmtd Tue, Apr 09 After the Bell -0.15 TRMK Trustmark Corporation Tue, Apr 09 -----N/A----- 0.46 ----------------------- WEDNESDAY ----------------------------- BRO Brown & Brown Wed, Apr 10 After the Bell 0.28 COGN Cognos Wed, Apr 10 After the Bell 0.22 STZ Constellation Wed, Apr 10 After the Bell 0.62 SSP E.W. Scripps Wed, Apr 10 Before the Bell 0.53 IYCOY Ito-Yokado Wed, Apr 10 -----N/A----- N/A RI Ruby Tuesday Wed, Apr 10 -----N/A----- 0.32 SIGY Signet Group Wed, Apr 10 Before the Bell 2.20 STI SunTrust Wed, Apr 10 Before the Bell 1.18 TGS Transportadora de Gas Wed, Apr 10 After the Bell 0.03 YHOO Yahoo! Wed, Apr 10 After the Bell 0.02 ------------------------- THURSDAY ----------------------------- ACN Accenture Thu, Apr 11 Before the Bell 0.22 ARA Aracruz Celulose S.A. Thu, Apr 11 -----N/A----- 0.06 BBT BB&T Thu, Apr 11 Before the Bell 0.66 CMH Clayton Homes Thu, Apr 11 -----N/A----- 0.21 CBH Commerce Bancorp Thu, Apr 11 -----N/A----- 0.42 CYT Cytec Industries Thu, Apr 11 After the Bell 0.26 DCLK DoubleClick Thu, Apr 11 After the Bell -0.04 DJ Dow Jones Thu, Apr 11 Before the Bell 0.08 ELNT Elantec Semiconductor Thu, Apr 11 After the Bell 0.11 FDC First Data Thu, Apr 11 Before the Bell 0.63 FULT Fulton Financial Thu, Apr 11 -----N/A----- 0.39 HIB Hibernia Corporation Thu, Apr 11 -----N/A----- 0.37 JNPR Juniper Networks Thu, Apr 11 After the Bell 0.00 MDC M.D.C Holdings Thu, Apr 11 Before the Bell 0.97 MI Marshall & Ilsley Thu, Apr 11 During the Market 1.03 MERQ Mercury Interactive Thu, Apr 11 After the Bell 0.10 NET Network Associates Thu, Apr 11 After the Bell 0.07 PIR Pier 1 Imports Thu, Apr 11 Before the Bell 0.51 PKX POSCO Thu, Apr 11 -----N/A----- N/A SWY Safeway Thu, Apr 11 Before the Bell 0.67 SM Sulzer Medica Thu, Apr 11 -----N/A----- N/A ------------------------- FRIDAY ------------------------------- BLK BlackRock Fri, Apr 12 Before the Bell 0.46 SPOT PanAmSat Fri, Apr 12 -----N/A----- 0.09 SGR Shaw Group The Fri, Apr 12 -----N/A----- 0.49 ------------------------------- Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks... ------------------------------- Symbol Company Name Ratio Payable Executable MKC McCormick & Co 2:1 04/05 04/08 ALLY Alliance Gaming 2:1 04/08 04/09 THQI THQ Inc 3:2 04/09 04/10 DHI D.R. Horton 3:2 04/09 04/10 DKWD D&K Healthcare 2:1 04/11 04/12 MMSI Merit Medical 5:4 04/11 04/12 AVD American Vanguard Corp 4:3 04/12 04/13 AMAT Applied Materials 2:1 04/15 04/16 WRI Weingarten Realty Invstor 3:2 04/15 04/16 CATY Cathay Bancorp 2:1 04/16 04/17 ADSK Autodesk 2:1 04/17 04/18 PGR Progressive Corp 3:1 04/19 04/20 MASB MASSBANK 3:2 04/19 04/20 FSBK First South Bancorp 3:2 04/19 04/22 -------------------------- Economic Reports This Week -------------------------- Earnings will begin to take center stage again as Wall Street eagerly or maybe apprehensively awaits the Q1 numbers. There may be a few more pre-announcements for those companies announcing later in the cycle but they should subside. Finally, this coming Friday is full of major economic reports with the PPI, Retails Sales and the Sentiment for April. ============================================================== -For- Monday, 04/08/02 ---------------- Wholesale Inventories(DM)Feb Forecast: 0.0% Previous: -0.2% Tuesday, 04/09/02 ----------------- .. None .. Wednesday, 04/10/02 ------------------- .. None .. Thursday, 04/11/02 ------------------ Initial Claims (BB) 04/06 Forecast: N/A Previous: 460K Export Prices ex-ag.(BB) Mar Forecast: N/A Previous: 0.0% Import Prices ex-oil(BB) Mar Forecast: N/A Previous: -0.5% Friday, 04/12/02 ---------------- PPI (BB) Mar Forecast: 0.6% Previous: 0.2% Core PPI (BB) Mar Forecast: 0.1% Previous: 0.0% Retail Sales (BB) Mar Forecast: 0.5% Previous: 0.3% Retail Sales ex-auto (BB)Mar Forecast: 0.4% Previous: 0.2% Mich Sentiment=Prel (DM) Apr Forecast: 97.3 Previous: 95.7 Definitions: DM= During the Market BB= Before the Bell AB= After the Bell ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. --------------------------------- Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change WM Washington Mutual Inc 35.71 +1.08 ACF Americredit Corp 42.13 +2.95 STR Questar Corp 27.50 +0.93 AHMH American Home Mtg Holdings 16.85 +0.74 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change UNTD United Online Inc 9.03 +1.28 TREE Lendingtree Inc 15.15 +1.36 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change GUC Gucci Group 93.85 +1.65 ASD American Standard Cos 72.65 +2.26 POT Potash Corp 66.00 +1.26 CPS Choicepoint Inc 59.05 +1.89 AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co 34.97 +1.34 GETY Getty Images Inc 34.68 +6.28 GRTS Gart Sports Company 34.98 +5.18 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change V Vivendi Universal 35.20 -1.15 EDS Electronic Data Systems 52.85 -1.20 WPI Watson Pharmaceuticals 24.20 -1.35 CSGS CSG Systems Intl. Inc 24.55 -1.23 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change AMHC American Healthways Inc 25.93 -0.48 CSS CSS Industries Inc 32.09 -0.31 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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