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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 04/09/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 04-09-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
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In section one:

Market Wrap:   The labor "software tree" may begin oozing some SAP
Market Sentiment: Delayed Reaction
Play-of-the-Day:  SAP
Watch List:       YUM, CNA, JCI, HLYW, ICOS, MYGN, NOK

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U.S. Market Numbers
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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
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      04-09-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10208.67 - 40.41 10304.99 10201.13 1.21 bln   1741/1375
NASDAQ   1742.57 - 43.30  1795.62  1742.40 1.49 bln   1588/1924
S&P 100   558.83 -  5.12   565.21   558.20   Totals   3329/3299
S&P 500  1117.80 -  7.49  1128.29  1116.73             
RUS 2000  503.01 -  0.00   505.44   502.70
DJ TRANS 2767.96 + 14.66  2778.85  2751.02
VIX        21.05 +  0.31    21.25    20.64
VXN        42.45 +  2.17    42.46    41.05
TRIN        1.40 
PUT/CALL    0.86

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===========
Market Wrap
===========

The labor "software tree" may begin oozing some SAP

At first it was PeopleSoft (NASDAQ:PSFT) $23.22 -6.97% that saw 
its stock decline roughly 30% in a single session after the maker 
of software products for "workforce management" announced it 
would miss earnings estimates by 1 penny and that corporations 
spending would also have revenues under pressure.

Today it was the Kronos (NASDAQ:KRON) $36.03 -22.43% software 
tree getting cut lower after the software maker for "workforce 
management" warned that it too would most likely report second-
quarter earnings of $0.26-$0.27 a share, and miss consensus 
estimates of $0.28 a share.  The company said that revenues were 
looking to be between $79-$80 million, which would be below 
consensus estimates for $85.7 million.

Kronos Incorporated Chart - Daily Interval



There's something more bearish that is taking place in the 
"workforce management" software space than what is being revealed 
in the earning's warnings.  This has a hungry bear standing on 
his/her back legs and sniffing the air for more morsels of food.  

One tree a bear may want to rub against that sells "workforce 
management" software is SAP Aktiengesell (NYSE:SAP) $33.28 -
3.39%.

SAP Aktiengesell Chart - Daily Interval



I'm not sure the business is any better at SAP than it is for 
PSFT or KRON.  The MARKET looks unsure too.  This may have buyers 
in the stock sitting on their wallets as some unpleasant price 
action has been taking place in fellow competitors PSFT and KRON.

"Birds of a feather flock together?"

You can almost imagine the look on some trader's faces if not 
read some minds when "rumor" began circulating at trading desks 
that networking giant Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) $14.82 -8.4% 
might warn on its upcoming quarter.

A tech bull might say "bite your tongue," but a networking bull 
that has seen some stocks get chopped in half in recent weeks 
despite falling 80% in the past year, will often sell now and ask 
question's later.  Some trader's believe that "birds of a feather 
tend to flock together" and a Cisco warning isn't out of the 
question.

As weird as it may seem, we profiled Cisco (CSCO) as "bearish" 
back on March 20th, but we weren't triggered on it until 
yesterday.  In essence, it was yesterday's action in Cisco (CSCO) 
that got subscriber's short the stock and while yesterday's 
"rally" into the close was a bit unnerving, today's "rumor" most 
likely couldn't have come at a better time.

I can get as paranoid as the next guy and you just never know how 
or where a "rumor" gets started.  It isn't entirely out of the 
question that a big short is trying to "talk the stock lower" and 
get investors jittery and selling their stock.  After all, there 
has been little "good news" come out of the networking sector in 
recent months and it's pretty easy to talk bulls out of their 
networking stocks in recent months.  As such, I'd strongly 
suggest subscribers that are currently short this stock review 
tonight's play update.

So tough for bulls right now

It is rather tough to be making money from the bullish side right 
now as the bulk of stocks in the market are either being whipped 
around or headed lower.

As such, I know that there are some that can only trade bullish 
if they are managing a retirement account, which does not allow 
the purchase of puts or shorting.

Don't worry!  A bull's day will come again.  Heck, we've got a 
few trades in our bullish play list that are doing good, but I 
want bulls in those stocks to at least be open to the possibility 
that there are some good profits currently at risk and you need 
to be protecting those gains.

Right now, a bull looks to be trying to walk headlong into a 
crowd that is trying to throw rotten tomatoes at you.

The HMO stocks as depicted by the HMO Index (HMO.X) 531.03 +0.93% 
have traded a bullish level some never thought achievable a few 
weeks ago.  

While we try and manage our play list (bullish and bearish 
profiles) as we would if it were our entire account with 
$5,000.00 at risk in each trade, some of our profiled stops on 
some bullish plays may be a little "too loose" for an 
investor/trader that is only trading bullish in their retirement 
account.

As such, I would snug up a stop in shares of Oxford Health 
(NYSE:OHP) $42.40 +1.04% to just below today's low of $41.90.  
We're going to leave the stop in our play list at $40.40, but I'm 
just trying to think of a trader that can only trade long in 
his/her account and I know how tough it is right now to get gains 
of 10% from the bullish side.  If OHP wants to continue to run 
higher, I don't necessarily want to sell the stock right now, but 
instead would tighten up a stop and let the stock "sell itself" 
if it trades down through the stop.

Then, should the broader market continue to sour, chances are 
that selling would eventually get hold of OHP and drag the stock 
lower, but provide a good entry level for another bullish trade.  
Remember, institutions tend to dump a stock in a single 
transaction, but prefer to buy in smaller lots, gradually 
accumulating a position.

Staples rockets to new highs

I have no idea why shares of office supply retailer Staples 
(NASDAQ:SPLS) $22.09 +4.64% blew higher today.  Well maybe there 
were two reasons.  It was NOT because we talked about the stock 
in last night's market wrap.

The only news I see is that the company did release its quarterly 
financials for the period ending February 2nd.  I'll confess I'm 
more of a technical analyst than an Income, Balance Sheet or Cash 
Flow "number-cruncher," but somebody may have seen something they 
really liked.  Heck, the technicals may have hinted at that in 
recent past.

The only other thing I can think of is that recently, I've seen 
some stocks really catch a bid (buyer) when they're in a strong 
group and the MACD crosses above the signal line after it has 
eased back near the zero level.  The more bullish the longer-term 
vertical count is from the point and figure chart, the better, as 
that too may have some bulls looking to gobble up a stock that 
looks to be just getting started on a longer-term trend.

One thing to watch tomorrow

A stock I'm going to watch tomorrow are shares of Dow Chemical 
(NYSE:DOW) $32.60 +2.00% after Moody's downgraded the company's 
long-term debt rating to A3 from A1 (as well as other short-term 
debt ratings) due to depressed financial performance and 
heightened financial leverage.

Dow Chemical (DOW) is a deep cyclical and this could impact the 
Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) 572 +0.26% tomorrow, thus 
perhaps putting at risk the "economic bull" scenario.

Dow Chemical Chart - Daily Interval



Technology stocks that have had these types of technicals 
associated with it have been getting crushed if their debt has 
been downgraded.  Since I'm no longer a "number-cruncher" (I used 
to be, but the market always seemed to figure out the bad news 
before the numbers were released in the financials) I'll take 
Moody's word for it that chemical giant Dow Chemical (DOW) has 
some fundamental problems.  If that's the case and things are 
getting worse, then there shouldn't be any buyer willing to buy 
the stock above downward trend at $33.35.  The vertical count 
from the point and figure chart is an eyebrow raising bearish 
price objective $10.

Jeff Bailey


================
Market Sentiment
================

Delayed Reaction
By Eric Utley

A day later, tech bulls are feeling blue.  It's a wonder things
didn't turn sour Monday.  The rally in tech shares following IBM's
(NYSE:IBM) warning Monday morning had me perplexed.  It didn't
make sense, not one bit.  Such is the nature of the market.  As
it turned out Tuesday, fading what became the short covering rally
proved intelligent.

The sector scorecard Tuesday revealed all nine of the technology
sectors that I track finishing decidedly negative.  Two and three
percent drops were next to ubiquitous.  And forget about
telecom.  The North American Telecom Index (XTC.X) broke the 600
level.  If you want to see what pain looks like, pull up a weekly
of the XTC.X tonight.  Ouch.

Earnings are failing to materialize in the information technology
businesses, it's as simple as that.  Forget about beating
expectations, these companies will be lucky to meet numbers for
the first quarter judging by the first round of warnings.  In
case you missed it yesterday, IBM hasn't warned since late 1999.
Yesterday's revelation said a lot, in my opinion, about the state
of IT spending.

Meanwhile, the less sexy sectors of the market in health care,
transports, cyclicals, and consumer stocks continue to act as
if the economy is, indeed, recovering.  The bifurcation of the
market is remarkable.  We saw the new high/new low index reveal
as much yet again Tuesday.

The only bullish sign that I see in Tuesday's sentiment data is
the extreme reading in the short-term ARMS Index.  But even
that indicator only hints towards another minor short covering
rally, nothing more.  I would dare wager that selling is
growing exhausted given the drops in price we've seen, but the
volume just isn't there to support that thesis.  From where I
sit this evening, the downside remains the path of least
resistance.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages


DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     : 10209

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10302
 50-dma: 10179
200-dma:  9960

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1118

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1133
 50-dma: 1127
200-dma: 1137


Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1345

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1412
 50-dma: 1457
200-dma: 1521


Airline ($XAL)

The XAL was the best performing sector in Tuesday's session.  The
index gained 1.90 percent on the day.  Strength in the broader
Dow Jones Transportation Average ($TRAN) helped boost the airlines.

Leading components included America West (NYSE:AWA), NorthWest
(NASDAQ:NWAC), Continental (NYSE:CAL), and United (NYSE:UAL).

52-week High: 153
52-week Low :  59
Current     : 100

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 101
 50-dma:  99
200-dma: 101


Software ($GSO)

The GSO continued to get hammered in Tuesday's session, losing
3.49 percent on the day.  That was enough to earn the day's
worst performing sector spot.

Leaders to the downside included Citrix Systems (NASDAQ:CTXS) --
on its warning --, PeopleSoft (NASDAQ:PSFT), Manugistics
(NASDAQ:MANU), and Veritas (NASDAQ:VRTS).

52-week High: 246
52-week Low : 112
Current     : 144

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 155
 50-dma: 166
200-dma: 172

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX opened above its 50-dma Monday morning, but reversed
on the strength in stocks.  Tuesday, it rebounded from its
10-dma.  The tightening of these two moving averages may lead
to an explosive move in volatility (fear).

The VXN also traded up to its 50-dma in Monday's session, then
reversed.  The NDX measure bounced back to the tune of 5.38
percent in Tuesday's session.  I would consider a breakout
above the 50-dma a significant development on the fear front.
The 50-dma finished Tuesday at 42.85.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 21.01 +0.27
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 40.82 +0.60

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.86        438,103       376,759
Equity Only    0.81        385,808       313,298
OEX            0.82         11,305         9,270
QQQ            1.61         24,334        39,187
 
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

***Tuesday's Data Was Delayed, Monday's Data Is Displayed***

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          64      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    41      - 4     Bull Correction
DOW           63      - 3     Bear Alert
S&P 500       72      + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       70      - 2     Bull Correction

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.59
10-Day Arms Index  1.37
21-Day Arms Index  1.20
55-Day Arms Index  1.20

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1741           1375
NASDAQ    1588           1924

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      254             36
NASDAQ    219             58

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,218
NASDAQ   1,490

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 04/02/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

S&P commercials grew even more bearish during the most recent
reporting period, although by a smaller rate than the period two
weeks ago.  The group shed more longs than shorts for a small
increase in the group's net short position.  Small traders didn't
get any more bullish since reaching their yearly high, but they
didn't get any more bearish neither.  The group's position
remained near the yearly bullish high.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
03/19/02      322,938   410,494   (87,556)  (11.9%)
03/26/02      317,671   410,186   (92,515)  (12.7%)
04/02/02      313,294   406,337   (93,403)  (13.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/19/02      145,262     43,066  102,196     54.3%
03/26/02      148,111     40,409  107,702     57.1%
04/02/02      149,449     43,139  106,310     55.2%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials grew less bearish last week by reducing
their net short position by about 3,000 contracts.  Small
traders went in the opposite direction with a significant drop
in their net bullish position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
03/19/02       24,792     33,699    (8,907)  (15.2%)
03/26/02       25,275     33,880    (8,605)  (14.5%)
04/02/02       26,211     31,840    (5,629)   (9.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   7,774  - 12/21/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
03/19/02       11,637     5,527     6,110     35.6%
03/26/02       12,760     6,264     6,496     34.1% 
04/02/02       10,615     7,769     2,846     15.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow commercials grew slightly more bullish last week by adding
a few longs and maintaining their short position.  The net long
position increased by fewer than 1,000 contracts.  Small traders
dumped a few longs, resulting in an increase to the group's net
short position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/19/02       20,858    13,283    7,575     22.2%
03/26/02       17,973    12,539    5,434     17.8% 
04/02/02       18,717    12,549    6,168     19.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
03/19/02        4,651    10,367    (5,716)   (38.1%)
03/26/02        5,818     9,308    (3,490)   (23.1%) 
04/02/02        5,192     9,007    (3,815)   (26.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------


===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((New BEARISH play))
===============

SAP Aktiengesell - SAP - close: 33.28 change: -1.17 stop: 36.01

Company Description:
SAP is the world's leading provider of e-business software 
solutions. Through the mySAP.com® e-business platform, people in 
businesses around the globe are improving relationships with 
customers and partners, streamlining operations, and achieving 
significant efficiencies throughout their supply chains. Today, 
more than 17,000 companies in over 120 countries run more than 
44,500 installations of SAP® software. (source: company press 
release)

Why We Like It: 
The rest of the Premier stock-picking team happens to agree with 
Jeff Bailey on his assessment of SAP.  With the rest of the 
software sector really suffering bears are probably looking 
around for anyone they forgot to maul.  Monday's gap down, 
courtesy of IBM's earnings warning that hit the tech sector as a 
whole, pushed shares of SAP through the bottom of its ascending 
channel that it had formed from September through March.  Bearish 
traders have a right to be cautious with the 200-dma directly 
below it at $32.64 but shares do have resistance just above near 
$35.  We are going to be a bit aggressive and start with a stop 
just north of $36.  Our target is actually the $27.50 area, which 
is below the current bullish support line at $29.00 on the PnF 
chart.  Since the rest of the group, PSFT, ORCL, KRON are all 
suffering from a lack of sales, we doubt SAP will be able to out 
perform unless they happen to be stealing marketshare from the 
rest of them (and nothing we've seen would indicate that 
happening as a group).  As a matter of fact, the pieces we have 
been able to decipher indicate that the sector is truly suffering 
as everyone tries to cut everyone else's prices just to get a 
deal.  Bulls will argue that SAP recently reiterated their 2002 
sales and earnings guidance but the recent price action (the 
recent drop from $38) does not indicate anyone is buying the 
stock in hopes of a surprise.  Check out tonight's wrap for more 
comments from Bailey on the play.  As a European stock, expect 
shares to gap up and down at the open.

Picked on April 9th at $33.28 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 




==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Editor's note:
We really wanted to add a number of these as plays to the Premier
list tonight but just plain ran out of time to do enough research
on them.  So we're posting them to an abbreviated watch list for
you to view on your own.

=============
MORE TO WATCH
=============

Tricon Global - YUM - close: 61.13 change: +1.13

YUM has been consolidating sideways for a month after hitting
resistance at $60 in early March.  Today's breakout over the $60
level on strong volume helped produced a nice bullish crossover
in the MACD.  We would target a quick move to $65 for traders.




---

C N A Financial - CNA - close: 30.86 change: +1.09

The insurance sector has been a real group of strength recently
and CNA's breakout over the $30 level and its 200-dma with decent
volume looks like a great bullish trade set up.  We have not 
checked the news, but the PnF chart shows resistance near $37.
However, the daily chart shows potential resistance at $35.  We
suspect that CNA may be able to trade to $35 over the next few
weeks if the strength in insurance continues.




---

Johnson Controls - JCI - close: 90.12 change: +0.94

The move above the $90 mark on JCI looks suspiciously like a 
bullish triangle breakout on its PnF chart.  The daily chart 
isn't bad either.  We would consider a long play at this level 
and target moves to the $100 mark.  Current resistance is around 
$92.80 to $93.00.  The 50-dma has been support and may be a good
place to consider stops.  Today's move was on strong volume and 
the MACD also looks very encouraging.  Again, we have not checked 
the news for JCI.




---

Hollywood Entertainment - HLYW - close: 18.77 change: +1.17

This stock saw a decent percentage move today but we like the
upside breakout through resistance at $18.00.  The stock has been 
trading strongly off its ascending trendline from early February 
so pull backs to the $18 mark might be a good entry point.  
However, short-term traders might jump on for a move to $20.00, 
which could happen first.  We have not checked the news.




---

ICOS Corp - ICOS - close: 39.36 change: -1.87

This biotech/drug stock traded under the $40 support level on 
Monday with the broader market weakness.  Like the broader market  
it rebounded back above support.  However, the selling continued 
on Tuesday and now shares have broken a major support.  We would 
consider short plays with stops above today's high.




---

Myriad Genetics - MYGN - close: 26.62 change: -1.33

MYGN is another drug/biotech stock that has been falling on 
strong volume recently.  The breakdown under $30 was a major 
victory for the bears and a lot of bulls could have just thrown 
in the towel for this one.  We would look for a failed rally at 
the $30 level for potential short entries or a move below $25.00, 
which was September's low (24.75).  Our target would be $20.00.




---

Nokia - NOK - close: 18.92 change: -0.63

The weakness in the telecom sector has brought NOK back under the 
$20 level of support and shares are now under their February 
lows.  We suspect the stock will continue to sell off and bears 
could target moves to the $16.50 or even the $15.00 level.







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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 04-09-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Play:      SAP
  Bullish Play Updates:  SNE
  Bearish Play Updates:  BRCM, CSCO, HGSI, ISSX, MU
  Closed Bearish Plays:  BCE

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  ACF, DOL, MHK, OHP
  Bearish Play Updates:  AGN

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  HIG, LUV
  Bearish Play Updates:  JNPR, QCOM

Split Trader
  Stock Splits
                         PRHC: 3-for-2 split announcement


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  ----------------
  New Bearish Play
  ----------------

SAP Aktiengesell - SAP - close: 33.28 change: -1.17 stop: 36.01

Company Description:
SAP is the world's leading provider of e-business software 
solutions. Through the mySAP.com® e-business platform, people in 
businesses around the globe are improving relationships with 
customers and partners, streamlining operations, and achieving 
significant efficiencies throughout their supply chains. Today, 
more than 17,000 companies in over 120 countries run more than 
44,500 installations of SAP® software. (source: company press 
release)

Why We Like It: 
The rest of the Premier stock-picking team happens to agree with 
Jeff Bailey on his assessment of SAP.  With the rest of the 
software sector really suffering bears are probably looking 
around for anyone they forgot to maul.  Monday's gap down, 
courtesy of IBM's earnings warning that hit the tech sector as a 
whole, pushed shares of SAP through the bottom of its ascending 
channel that it had formed from September through March.  Bearish 
traders have a right to be cautious with the 200-dma directly 
below it at $32.64 but shares do have resistance just above near 
$35.  We are going to be a bit aggressive and start with a stop 
just north of $36.  Our target is actually the $27.50 area, which 
is below the current bullish support line at $29.00 on the PnF 
chart.  Since the rest of the group, PSFT, ORCL, KRON are all 
suffering from a lack of sales, we doubt SAP will be able to out 
perform unless they happen to be stealing marketshare from the 
rest of them (and nothing we've seen would indicate that 
happening as a group).  As a matter of fact, the pieces we have 
been able to decipher indicate that the sector is truly suffering 
as everyone tries to cut everyone else's prices just to get a 
deal.  Bulls will argue that SAP recently reiterated their 2002 
sales and earnings guidance but the recent price action (the 
recent drop from $38) does not indicate anyone is buying the 
stock in hopes of a surprise.  Check out tonight's wrap for more 
comments from Bailey on the play.  As a European stock, expect 
shares to gap up and down at the open.

Picked on April 9th at $33.28 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Sony Corp (ADR) - SNE - close: 51.31 change: -1.04 stop: 47.99

Unlike the NIKKEI 225 Index, which added a paltry 17 points 
today, shares of SNE were negative and dropped just over a dollar 
but they remain above the $50 level of support.  As long as this 
level remains as support we have hope that SNE will keep the new 
bullish trend alive. The 50-dma recently (bullishly) crossed over 
the 200-dma and is rising up to meet the share price.  This might 
provide extra support for the stock as well.  Traders can choose 
to target entries on dips to the $50 level or wait for a move 
back over the $53 mark.  Keep an eye on the NIKKIE 225 index.  As 
long as it remains above 11K, SNE should find strength as well.

Picked on April 4th at $53.01
Gain since picked:      -1.70
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (unconfirmed)
 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Broadcom Corp - BRCM - close: 32.79 change: -1.10 stop: 35.75 

Like many hardware/chip tech stocks, IBM's warning on Monday hit 
shares of BRCM pretty hard.  BRCM gapped down and then traded to 
the $31 level before bouncing back with the Nasdaq.  That bounce 
continued today but shares failed again near the $35.50 level and 
its 15-dma.  The strong lack of leadership in the tech 
heavyweights and the bearishness developing in the SOX, not to 
mention the bearish close in shares of Intel, have us growing 
more confident that BRCM will retest the $30 level.  Attentive 
investors probably noticed that there were a number of news 
articles out this week on BRCM.  The leading story was BRCM's 
purchase of Mobilink Telecom Inc.  This deal was for about $190 
million in stock and BRCM said it would issue 5.6 million Class A 
shares to acquire the company.  The acquisition is expected to be 
finalized in 60 days and BRCM said it would take a Q2 charge for 
the "in-process research and development".  Yet later it was said 
that the Mobilink acquisition would not affect BRCM's pro forma 
2002 results.  At any rate, some analysts feel this is a good 
move for BRCM, which would allow the company to compete more 
directly in the $11 billion cellular chip industry (source: 
Reuters).  As a reaction to the news, BRCM was upgraded from a 
market perform to a buy from a smaller brokerage but the rating 
change appeared to have no affect on the share price today.  
Short-term traders who are already in the play may want to 
consider taking profits soon.  While short-term traders looking 
for entries might want to jump in now with a target of $30.

Picked on March 25th at $35.75
Gain since picked:       +2.96
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Cisco Systems - CSCO - close: 14.82 change: -1.36 stop: 15.35 *new*

A bad week gets worse for CSCO investors.  The stock traded down 
on Monday with the Big Blue earnings warning before recovering 
and closing back above the $16 level of support.  The Monday open 
was low enough to trigger us into the short play but 
unfortunately at a slightly lower entry price than we had hoped.  
Remember that our entry range was from $15.50 to $15.90.  The gap 
down on Monday at $15.74 formed our entry point.  We were a bit 
surprised to find the stock erasing all of Monday's losses by the 
closing bell yesterday but we had a stop at $16.70 to protect us 
from the worst.  Fast forward to Tuesday and new rumors that CSCO 
would warn or miss estimates hit the share price for an 8.4 
percent drop and weighed heavily on the rest of the hardware 
sector.  Today's move was fueled on strong volume of 105 million 
shares and helped confirm a bearish crossover in the MACD.  
Today's breakdown also put the stock back in its descending 
channel from January 2002.  Investors probably panicked with 
today's rumor after hearing a similar rumor warning on Friday 
about IBM only to have it come true on Monday.  Of course there 
are a number of analysts and reporters correctly stating that if 
IBM is claiming a tough environment for their hardware sector 
then CSCO could also be feeling the pressure.  As one commentator 
put it, there are enough data points in the economy and general 
IT spending environment that would likely point to a tough 
quarter for CSCO.  Adding to the fire was a note from RBC Capital 
Markets, where they trimmed their 2002 revenue estimates for CSCO 
by $150 million.  Our exit price is $14.25.  If CSCO trades to 
this level or below we are going to cover (hypothetically) and 
close the play.  The rollover in the PnF chart and the return to 
the negative trading channel might inspire more aggressive 
traders to aim for greater rewards with a move the $12.00 area - 
but do so with caution and good follow through on stops.  If they 
did warn then a retest of the September lows near $11 would seem 
likely.

Picked on April 8th at $15.74 
Gain since picked:      +0.92
Earnings Date        05/07/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Human Genome Sci. - HGSI - cls: 16.88 chg: -0.70 stop: 18.10*new*

The continuing deterioration in the biotech sector has several of 
the better known stocks hitting new relative lows and HGSI is 
hitting new 52-week lows.  The BTK.X biotech index closed at the 
450 level of support but could easily fall lower from here.  
Shorts will want to be careful and follow closely with stops as 
the group is very oversold and could correct, at least bounce, at 
any time.  HGSI is no exception and we are lowering our stop as 
shares continue to fall.  We did note that Monday's drop came on 
very strong volume of 7.7M shares versus the average of just 
2.79M shares.  We think the stock is aiming for a move to the $14 
to $15 levels.  Chart readers could try drawing a trendline from 
the mid-December 2001 intraday low through the March 1st, 2002 
intraday low and you'll see why.  We are going to use an exit 
price of $15.00 to close the play.  If HGSI trades at or below 
this level we'll get out.  We don't have to fight for every last 
quarter and it can get way to frustrating trying to exit at the 
very bottom.  As the Premier newsletter is up over 10 percent on 
the play, we're going to lower our stop to $18.10, which should 
protect a 5 percent gain.  More conservative traders might try 
something just above the $17.50 level if they prefer.  Only 
aggressive traders should try new entries at this time.

Picked on April 5th at $19.05 
Gain since picked:      +2.17
Earnings Date        02/14/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Internet Security - ISSX - cls: 20.02 chg: -0.41 stop: 21.10 *new* 

Software leader, MSFT, tried to rally but failed at its previous 
support of $57.50.  This failed rally was mirrored in the GSO.X 
software index as the sector rallied up to the 150 level before 
rolling over.  Odds are this move has bears salivating for even 
more significant drops in the group which has been besieged with 
numerous warnings.  The challenge is the occasional stand out 
like INTU, which announced strong earnings recently.  Fortunately 
for us, the software security group is not one to harbor an out 
performer like that unless you count SYMC but it too has been hit 
with selling pressure this month.  ISSX is desperately trying to 
hold on to the $20 support level but we doubt it will be able to 
do so.  We're going to lower our stop on ISSX to $21.10 but in 
the meantime we're also going to add a target of $17.01.  If 
shares trade at or below the $17.01 mark we'll close the play.  
The new lower stop should protect a gain of more than six 
percent.  Traders looking for new entries for a move to $17 could 
look for a close under $20 or a move under Monday's low as 
potential triggers.  Don't forget that earnings are expected next 
Tuesday for ISSX.

Picked on March 26th at $22.58 
Gain since picked:       +2.56
Earnings Date         04/16/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Micron Technology - MU - close: 30.05 change: -0.85 stop: 32.05

Shares of MU have been a bit stronger than we expected from 
Friday's close.  Essentially shares have been trading sideways in 
a range from $31.75 to $29.00 for the last several sessions.  
Tuesday's performance was a nice failed rally at the top of this 
range but MU is recalcitrant to close under the $30 level of 
support.  However, with the chip leader, INTC, closing bearishly 
under its 200-dma again, we might get some follow through by 
sellers tomorrow.  Traders should probably look for some 
confirmation that the stock is moving your way before committing 
to any new positions.  We are still aiming for a move to the $25 
area.  In the news there appears to be some discussion going on 
over MU's proposed $4B plan to buy the memory division of Korean-
based Hynix Semiconductor, the world's third largest memory 
maker.  

Picked on April 5th at $29.85 
Gain since picked:      -0.20
Earnings Date        03/21/02 (confirmed)
 





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  -------------------
  Closed Bearish Play
  -------------------

BCE Inc - BCE - close: 16.61 change: +0.60 stop: 16.65

BCE looked due for a bounce after yesterday's 9% loss, and that's 
exactly what happened today.  Last night we moved our stop to 
$16.65, which forced the stock to trade back above its 19% 
retracement level and above the $16.50 level.  BCE gained 3.74% 
today and tagged an intraday high of $16.65, just kissing our 
stop.  This closed us out for a 14.17 percent gain.  Traders who 
still want to speculate on a move lower may want to note that the 
stock traded an "inside day" today, and a break below the 
intraday low could indicate that shares will continue lower.  On 
the same token, a move above today's high would be a bullish 
development.

Picked on March 22nd at $19.40
Gain since picked:       +2.75
Earnings Date         04/23/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================


===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Americredit - ACF - close: 44.06 change: +0.70 stop: 39.89 *new*

As we suspected, panicked shorts have continued to run for the 
exits seeing ACF trade through resistance at $40.  Today's new 
near-term high is encouraging, but the declining volume over the 
past three sessions indicates that short selling may be drying 
up.  For this reason we think entries at current levels are 
better left to aggressive traders, while a pullback to the $42 
area could present a more favorable trade from a risk/reward 
standpoint.  The Premier newsletter is currently up 4.6 percent 
on this play.  To minimize risk we're going to bump our stop up 
to $39.89, just under Friday's low.  The most recent "shares 
short" report came out and shows that as of last month there were 
23M shares short for ACF, which equates to about 35% of the 
float.  This was down 2 million from the previous month.

Picked on April 5th at $42.13 
Gain since picked:      +1.93
Earnings Date        04/15/02 (confirmed)




---

Dole Food CO. - DOL - close: 30.66 change: -0.17 stop: 30.31

Is DOL coiling for a big move?  The light volume and tight range 
over the past week seem to suggest that it is.  Of course, this 
could also reflect simple lack of interest in the stock.  The 
sideways trading is certainly boring to watch, but for now we'll 
continue to wait for a move higher.  If DOL breaks lower, our 
stop at $30.31 will prevent us from being caught in the 
downdraft.  Shares have been relatively strong versus the Dow 
recently, so we'd look for a market rebound to provide the 
catalyst DOL needs to start moving.

Picked on March 1st at $30.94
Gain since picked:      -0.28
Earnings Date        01/31/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Mohawk Industries - MHK - close: 62.20 change: -0.80 stop: 58.49

MHK traded higher yesterday after Solomon Smith Barney released 
positive comments on the housing sector.  However, nothing goes 
up in a straight line, and after four straight days of gains MHK 
was due for some profit-taking.  Today's 1.26 percent decline may 
present a buying opportunity for traders looking to go long.  The 
trend is still positive and the MACD is about to signal a bullish 
crossover at the baseline.  If today's selling extends into 
Wednesday's session we'd look for the 50-dma at $60.85 to act as 
support.  On a more general note, it might be a good idea to keep 
an eye on bond yields.  The 10-year note (TNX.X) looks like it 
may head down to $50.  If this turns out to be the case, 
homebuilding stocks would likely benefit from the subsequent 
decline in mortgage rates.

Picked on April 5th at $61.80 
Gain since picked:      +0.40
Earnings Date        02/06/02 (confirmed)




---

Oxford Health - OHP - close: 42.40 change: +0.44 stop: 40.40

Finally, a close over $42!  It's been a long two-week wait, but 
today's 1.04 percent gain was enough to push OHP above that 
stubborn resistance level.  Shares weren't quite able to beat the 
intraday high from March 22nd, but did finish at an all-time 
closing high of $42.40.  Now that OHP is over resistance, our 
initial profit target at $44.75 is within striking distance.  
Short-term traders still looking for an entry may want to 
initiate positions at current levels or a dip to $42.  The MACD 
and daily stochastics support our bullish outlook, but a glance 
at the HMO.X health provider index tempers our enthusiasm.  The 
HMO is currently trading at the top of its ascending channel.  It 
could very well move over this level, but the last three attempts 
to break out of the channel were met with selling.  With this in 
mind, conservative traders may want to move their stops closer to 
$42.  You may also want to check out tonight's Market Wrap, where 
Jeff Bailey expounds on the HMO and OHP.

Picked on March 8th at $38.55
Gain since picked       +3.85
Earnings Date        02/05/02 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Allergan - AGN - close: 58.70 change: +0.97 stop: 62.01

AGN started off the week in a bearish fashion, as shares hit an 
intraday low of $57.25.  This level corresponds with the bottom 
of its descending channel, and bears may have used this as an 
excuse to cover some of their gains from the previous six 
sessions.  Today's failed rally to $60 was encouraging, and 
adventurous traders could take short positions at current levels.  
Just remember to keep those stops nice and tight...Slightly over 
$60 would be a good spot.  An argument could be made that AGN is 
actually a bullish candidate because it bounced from the bottom 
of its channel.  We think the bearish triangle p-n-f sell signal 
and weak sector will ultimately lead to this level giving way.  
The DRG.X drug index has shown no signs of rebounding, and could 
be headed for a retest of the September lows.  It would be 
difficult for AGN to stage any sort of rally in such a negative 
environment.

Picked on April 5th at $58.40 
Gain since picked:      -0.30
Earnings Date        04/22/02 (unconfirmed)





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Hartford Financial - HIG - cls: 69.75 chg: +0.61 stop: 66.49*new*

The insurance sector just won't quit!  ALL, PGR, PRU, and our 
very own HIG are breaking out, and that's just naming a handful 
of the strong stocks in the group.  HIG added 0.88 percent today 
and closed just under the critical $70 level.  Attentive readers 
may recall that we had targeted this level when we first 
initiated the play.  Although we think the strong sector will 
continue to power HIG higher, conservative traders may want to 
lock in their gains now.  Traders looking to play a break over 
resistance can consider going long if HIG closes above $70.  In 
addition to being a break over resistance, a trade above this 
level would create a double-top buy p-n-f buy signal.  Waiting 
for a close above resistance would help to confirm conviction on 
the part of the bulls.  The Premier newsletter is currently up 
over 6 percent on this play, and we're going to tighten our stop 
to $66.49 in order to protect some of those gains but remain 
under the 50-dma.

Picked on March 13th at $65.74
Gain since picked:       +4.01
Earnings Date         01/28/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Southwest Airlines - LUV - cls: 18.49 chg: +0.23 stop: 17.99

LUV closed at $18.49 today, just two cents below where it 
finished on Friday.  One might assume that the stock is trading 
flat, but that's hardly the case.  Shares gapped lower Monday 
morning on speculation that increasing mid-east tensions would 
push up the price of oil.  LUV briefly flirted with $18 and came 
dangerously close to our stop before bouncing higher.  Now that 
the stock has successfully tested support at $18 (and the 200-dma 
at $18.13), it may make another attempt to break over resistance 
at $19.  Whether it can rally over this level may depend on how 
the sector behaves.  The XAL.X airline index closed above 100 
today but still faces the 200-dma at 101.22.  A continued decline 
in the price of oil (cl02k) could be just what the sector needs 
to get moving again.  

Picked on April 4th at $18.94
Gain since picked:      -0.45
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (unconfirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 11.03 change: -0.82 stop: 12.60

JNPR hasn't been able to put together two consecutive positive 
days for over a week, so we weren't too surprised to see 
yesterday's gains go up in smoke.  Today's decline can be 
attributed to CSCO, which was slammed for an 8.40 percent loss.  
Rumors were flying that an earnings warning from the networking 
giant was imminent.  JNPR traded down in sympathy and lost 6.91 
percent.  The stock traded an "inside day" today.  Aggressive 
traders still looking to go short could open positions on a break 
below today's low of $11.10, while those who want more bearish 
confirmation could wait for the stock to trade below Monday's low 
of $10.94.  The networking index (NWX.X) has found near-term 
support at 220.  A failure to maintain this level would be 
bearish for the entire sector.  Since it is earnings season we 
should mention that JNPR announces on Thursday after the bell.  
To avoid getting whipsawed we normally close plays out before 
earnings, but since this is a high-risk play we're going to hold 
in anticipation of a negative reaction.  We think an earnings 
miss and/or negative guidance could drop shares down to the $9 
support level (or worse).  Less risk-averse traders may want to 
consider closing out their positions on Thursday.

Picked on April 5th at $11.42
Gain since picked:      +0.39
Earnings Date        04/11/02 (confirmed)




---

QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 35.02 change: -1.10 stop: 37.36

The telecom and wireless sectors just can't seem to find their 
footing.  NOK, SBC, and VZ are all looking weak, and the IXTCX 
telecom index looks like it's headed for a retest of support at 
160.  QCOM is also downtrending and has spent the last few days 
hovering above its own near-term support at $35.  Today the stock 
managed to get over the previous day's high (the first time its 
done so in a week), but was turned back at Friday's high of 
$37.20.  QCOM once again underperformed the NASDAQ, and it looks 
like it may lead the way lower if the index heads to 1700.  
Short-term traders who are still looking for entries can target a 
break below $35, but be aware that the stock may find support at 
$33, which happens to be our current target.  Premier is 
currently up 11.1 percent on this play.

Picked on March 25th at $39.47
Change since picked:     +4.45
Earnings Date         04/24/02 (unconfirmed)





==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcement
------------------

Province Healthcare Announces 3-for-2 Split

After the bell today, the CEO of Province Healthcare Company 
(NASDAQ:PRHC) announced that the company's Board of Directors had 
approved a 3-for-2 stock split.  The split will take place as a 
50% stock dividend.

The shareholder record date for the split will be April 20th, 
2002.  The payable date will likely be Monday, April 29th, as the 
distribution date is April 30th, 2002.  Shares outstanding should 
jump to almost 47.6 million after the split takes place.

PRHC closed at $33.00 on Tuesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=PRHC


About the company
Province Healthcare is a provider of health care services in 
attractive non-urban markets in the United States. The Company 
owns or leases 18 general acute care hospitals in 11 states with 
a total of 2,031 licensed beds. The Company also provides 
management services to 35 primarily non-urban hospitals in 13 
states with a total of 2,776 licensed beds. (source: company 
press release)



==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


---------------------------------
Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

JCI     Johnson Controls Inc       90.12     +0.94
ABK     Ambac Financial Group      61.47     +1.37
TMK     Torchmark Corp             41.11     +0.53
LEN     Lennar Corp                55.52     +1.62

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

DL      Dial Corp                  19.60     +1.14
HLYW    Hollywood Entertainment    18.77     +1.17
SYPR    Sypris Solutions Inc       19.01     +1.16
USLB    US Laboratories Inc        15.66     +1.29

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

RDN     Radian Group               52.31     +2.36
AXL     American Axle & Mfg        32.10     +1.23
ISLE    Isle of Capris Casinos     21.10     +2.08
MTH     Meritage Corp              72.05     +1.06
GNWR    Genesee & Wyoming Inc      25.07     +1.28
KSS     Kohl's Corp                73.97     +1.47
CVS     CVS Corp                   35.58     +1.76

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SBC     SBC Communications         34.90     -1.63
BLS     Bellsouth Corp             32.05     -2.52
VZ      Verizon Communications     42.70     -1.51
DNA     Genentech Inc              41.05     -1.80
KRON    Kronos Inc                 36.03     -10.42

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ASMI    ASM Intl. N.V.             24.67     -1.43
SRDX    Surmodics Inc              42.85     -1.20
CTSH    Cognizant Tech             38.79     -1.86
PNW     Pinnacle West Capital      44.45     -0.84




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