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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 04/11/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                          04-11-2002
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap:      After regular session sell off, IBM rebounds...
Play-of-the-Day:  Look out below
Market Sentiment: Capitulation or Exhaustion?

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
        04-11-2002        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10176.08 -205.65 10378.89 10176.08 1511 mln   1072/2081	
NASDAQ   1725.24 - 41.83  1762.28  1725.24 1620 mln   1214/2334
S&P 100   549.46 - 15.89   565.35   549.46   totals   2286/4415
S&P 500  1103.69 - 26.78  1130.47  1103.69           
RUS 2000  503.73 -  7.57   511.30   503.60
DJ TRANS 2792.29 - 51.15  2843.88  2791.56
VIX        22.24 +  2.02    22.55    20.48
Put/Call Ratio      0.91
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

After regular session sell off, IBM rebounds in after-hours

It was a tough day for bulls as stock were under pressure 
throughout the session.  After-hours trading has turned more 
positive after the Securities and Exchange Commission issued a 
statement after the close of trading that it would take no action 
against International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) $84.30 -5.29% 
(regular session).  That news has shares of IBM bidding higher at 
$87.20 after intra day news of a potential SEC inquiry sent the 
company's stock to a new 52-week.  "Regarding the reports of a 
preliminary inquiry into IBM, the SEC staff opened an inquiry and 
shortly thereafter closed it without action," an SEC spokesperson 
said.

Research firm SEC Insight and notes from that firm earlier today 
look to have been the emphasis for today's selling in IBM.  The 
firm evidently issued a report this morning claiming that the SEC 
initiated a preliminary inquiry of IBM starting on February 15th.  
However, it is still rather unclear if tonight statement out of 
the SEC pertains to SEC Insight's report, or to a New York Times 
story, also published on February 15th, detailing IBM's 
accounting methods for the sale of its optical division to JDS 
Uniphase (NASDAQ:JDSU) $5.00 -5.48%.  SEC Insight's report from 
earlier today says that the most recent SEC investigation of IBM 
is a new investigation and speculates that it is still ongoing.

Despite the "confusion," the SEC's "no action" decision against 
IBM has broader technology breathing a collective sigh of relief 
as NASDAQ futures trade higher by 14 points (+1.08%) at 1,346.

It is my opinion that there is enough "rumor" and "speculation" 
taking place in IBM's shares right now, that we can't make any 
type of decision as to the potential price direction of the 
stock.  Therefore we would advise trader to avoid trading the 
stock unless you have a very high tolerance for risk.

Juniper reports inline earnings, with slightly lower guidance

Fiber optic equipment maker Juniper Networks (NASDAQ:JNPR) $10.34 
-4.96% reported Q1 earnings after the close of trading the met 
consensus estimates.  The company reported net income of $0.00 a 
share versus year-ago earnings of $0.25 a share.  Revenues in the 
latest quarter were $122.2 million, also inline with expectations 
for $122.06 million, but 63% below year-go levels.  

In a pre-conference call interview with the Wall Street Journal, 
Juniper's CEO said that Q2 revenues will be flat compared to Q1, 
or about $122 million, which looks to be slightly less than 
Multex consensus of $125.6 million.  Juniper also said that pro 
forma earnings per share will be flat at about breakeven, versus 
consensus estimates for a penny profit.

In after hours trading, shares of Juniper (JNPR) traded as low at 
$10.00, but then seemed to recover to the $10.50 level (+$0.16 
from close).

Juniper Networks Chart - Daily Interval



We thought there was a good chance that Juniper (JNPR) might 
guide lower on futures earnings and the technicals were in favor 
for a bearish play in the stock when originally profiled on April 
5th.  A trader that shorted the stock the following day, April 
8th (low=$10.94 to $12.25 range) should be holding a profit.

While Juniper's earnings were not impressive, our scenario for 
the company to guide lower and have the stock falling to $9.00 or 
lower does not look as if it is going to take place.  While 
after-hours trading is not indicative of a "true market response" 
it is our feeling that when trading a scenario, adjustments need 
to be made to the trading strategy when the scenario looks at 
risk.  As such, we will want to simply lower a stop in the trade 
to just above today's high and still target the $9.06 level, just 
above the February 22nd low of $9.00.

With NASDAQ futures showing some gains in after-hours trading, we 
will error on the side of caution and look to preserve capital.  
Anything can happen tomorrow morning in the trading of Juniper 
and not all market participants trade in after-hours trading.  By 
laying out our plan before trading opens and sticking to it, we 
will let the MARKET decide the eventual fate of this trade. (see 
play update)

Today's action

Today's action was quite bearish looking from the opening of 
trading.  At about mid-session, market action did have the look 
of some short-term "capitulation" by bulls that may have been 
holding some technology stock long and were looking for a strong 
jobless claims report.  When the jobless claims number didn't 
surpass expectations, the selling began and seemed to climax at 
around 02:30 PM EST. 

I don't think this morning's jobless claims number was "bad 
enough" to warrant some of the selling we witnessed today.  I do 
think the jobless claims number was "just bad enough" though to 
get some bulls heading for the exits and rethinking some of their 
stock positions that have dropped in price in recent weeks.

Evidence of some "capitulation" by bulls is what we saw in 
today's 01:00 EST Update when the North American Telecom Index 
(XTC.X) plummeted another -5.05% today.  I feel it would be 
rather "foolish" if not risky for a bull to try and step into 
this sector and begin buying, but this isn't what I'm worried 
about right now.  All I'm worried about is when bears are going 
to turn and begin covering some positions.

Nobody knows when the bears are going to come in and cover 
positions and perhaps spark the proverbial "short-covering" 
rally.  Most often, short covering starts at or just above a 
level of technical support or when a trading program kicks in 
when a position becomes overly profitable.  Over the year's I've 
learned the best way to trade and protect my account against such 
a move is by trading targets or lowering stops in trades where a 
gain can still be realized.  A stock that has traded in your 
favor by more that 5-7% should not be left to waste if your 
account is in need of a gain.

QUALCOMM Chart - Daily Interval



While many telecom stocks are being "taken apart" and breaking to 
new lows, I'm rather impressed with how well QUALCOMM 
(NASDAQ:QCOM) $34.59 -2.01% has held up relative to its group.  
We profiled shares of QCOM as bearish back on March 25th at 
$35.75 and trader's got plenty of up-ticks the following day to 
short into from $38.59 to $40.95.  From there, it has been a slow 
pace lower and as of tonight's close, a bear is sitting on a 
decent 12.3% gain.  With many telecom stocks being thrown out 
with the bathwater, I am looking to protect a gain since QCOM has 
not participated to the extent that other stocks have.  Don't get 
me wrong, I'm satisfied with a potential gain as it stands, but I 
just don't want it to evaporate on a short-covering rally.  I'll 
guarantee you that we're not the only ones holding a bearish 
trade since March 25th.  (see play update)

As discussed this morning in the 09:00 Update, I issued a bit of 
a "heads up" for bears to snug down there stops.  Hopefully that 
"heads up" wasn't brushed aside as we did see a couple of our 
bearish plays actually trade higher today.  Subscribers should 
have been stopped out of our bearish play in biotech Human Genome 
Sciences (NASDAQ:HGSI) $17.23 -0.40% at the profiled stop of 
$18.10 for a 5% gain.  We lowered a tight stop on this trade 
simply due to the stronger than expected rally in the Biotech 
Index (BTK.X) 459 -2.79% the previous day.  The biotech's 
actually traded in positive territory for the first hour of 
trading, but eventually were pushed lower into the close.

I'm also monitoring a bearish play in Internet Security Systems 
(NASDAQ:SSYS) $20.03 +1.98%.  Subscribers have a nice gain still 
at hand in this bearish play, but the stock continue to hug the 
midlevel of my regression trend.  With a decent 11% gain for 
traders currently as risk, I don't want to risk a short covering 
rally back to the upper end of regression at/near the $25 level.

Last night we added a rather "defensive" type of play to our 
bullish trade list in Phelps Dodge (NYSE:PD) $40.08 -0.39%.  The 
stock traded strong for the bulk of the session, but as losses 
mounted in the broader market, the shares drifted back into the 
close.  While I'd like to see gains every day from every trade, I 
do like the relative strength shown today compared to the broader 
market averages.

Lots of economic data

I'm going to be taking vacation tomorrow and Monday, but Eric 
Utley will be here to help guide you through the day.

Tomorrow morning, traders are going to be bombarded with economic 
data, which includes Retail Sales and the Producer Price Index.  
Economists are looking for retails sales to edge up 0.4% and the 
"excluding autos" number to be up 0.5%.  Also at 08:30 AM EST, 
the PPI is expected to gain 0.6%, with the core rate edging up 
just 0.1%.

April Gold Futures (gc02j) have been hovering around the $300 
level for about two weeks and traded fractionally higher today to 
close at $302/oz.

Then at 09:45 AM EST, the University of Michigan consumer 
sentiment is expected to show a reading of 97.3, which would be 
slightly higher than the previous reading of 95.7.  Many 
economists tie in the performance of the NASDAQ Composite and 
technology stock with levels of consumer sentiment.  If that's 
the case, then the 6.5% decline in the NASDAQ since its March 
28th close of 1,833 might have that sentiment number coming in a 
little lower than expected.  The NASDAQ Composite finished 
today's trading at 1,725.

Well.  I'm looking forward to a few days off.  This has been a 
pretty good week for the bears and I just want everyone to 
protect some of the gains you may have in some of your bearish 
trades.

As I said the other day.  Bulls are going to get control of the 
ball again, the tide always seems to shift.  If you can only 
trade bullish in your account (retirement account) or that is 
where your current comfort level is, then hang in there.

When I get back next week, I'm going to review our play list for 
the current month, both open and closed profiled positions.  I 
like to do this from time to time and talk about account 
management and what we're seeing take place.

If you're not finding many trades or don't like some of the bullish 
trades we're profiling, then it might be a good time to 
review some of the things and past articles I talked about in 
last night's wrap and this morning's wrap.  

Go browse around in the "Bailey's Basics" section of the website 
and browse some of the old articles that I've written in the past 
that may trigger a thought or give you a technique to test 
against with a stock that you do like from the bullish side.

Have a great day tomorrow!


Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bearish)
=========================
(( new NetBulls short play ))

Scientific Atlanta - SFA - cls: 20.61 chg: -0.48 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Scientific-Atlanta, Inc. is a leading supplier of transmission 
networks for broadband access to the home, digital interactive 
subscriber systems designed for video, high speed Internet, and 
voice over IP (VoIP) networks, and worldwide customer service and 
support. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It: 
Bears have been feasting again on cable-related stocks ever since 
ADLAC was annihilated on accounting concerns.  Cable providers 
such as AOL, CMCSK, and CVC have also been dropping on revenue 
concerns.  These actually all look like good shorts, but we're 
hesitant to try to chase them lower.  We prefer SFA because it 
hasn't seen the same type of dramatic selloff in recent weeks, 
but is still downtrending and threatening to break below support 
at $20.  Volume has been increasing over the past three sessions, 
indicating a buildup of downside momentum.  The MACD and daily 
stochastics look bearish as well.  However, we won't go short 
until SFA trades at or below $19.94.  If we are triggered, our 
initial stop will be $21.51.  The p-n-f chart shows a vertical 
bearish count of $16.  Shares may indeed reach this level, but 
we're going to initiate this play with a profit target at $17.50.  
This would be a gain of about 12 percent.  SFA announces earnings 
on April 18th.  Traders may want to keep this in mind, because 
we'll be closing out this play before the announcement.  

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- see text 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (confirmed)
 





================
Market Sentiment
================

Capitulation or Exhaustion?
By Eric Utley

I can't decide if Thursday's sweep lower was a capitulation that
marked a short- to intermediate-term bottom.  Or merely short-term
selling running its course.  Volume was on the rise again, but
it wasn't the type of washout volume you'd expect to accompany
a capitulation bottom.  Nor did I witness the type of fear-
induced selling that accompanies a capitulation, at least not on
a broad scale.

Anecdotally, all 30 of the sectors that I track finished lower
today.  That's the first time that has happened this year.  From
a sector standpoint, the selling was indeed broad.  And then
there's the extreme reading of the ARMS Index.  The 5-day moved
above 1.70, and the 10-day moved above 1.50.  I haven't seen Mr.
Arms on CNBC yet, but imagine he's due for an appearance with
the ARMS Index where it is.

Perhaps more important than all else, the Nasdaq-100 Bullish
Percent ($BPNDX) is trading near where it bottomed in February.
I think this begs monitoring closely for the tech bears.  The
way to play a possible reversal in the $BPNDX is through
lowering stops on open bearish positions.  I wouldn't
necessarily get bullish on tech stocks based on the potential
for a bottom in the $BPNDX, but I would be careful with where
I define my upside risk.

Sticking with bullish percent data, the S&P 100 Bullish
Percent ($BPOEX) reversed into Bear Alert Thursday.  In a way,
I think more downside risk has shifted into the S&P names,
namely the big caps, and away from the tech sector, at least
over the intermediate-term.  While the bullish percent charts
don't necessarily help us answer the question of capitulation
or exhaustion, they do help to manage risk.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages


DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     : 10176

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10305
 50-dma: 10189
200-dma:  9958

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1104

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1128
 50-dma: 1127
200-dma: 1137


Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1325

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1394
 50-dma: 1449
200-dma: 1518


Healthcare ($HMO)

The HMO.X finished 0.10 percent lower Thursday.  It was the
best performing sector.

Leaders to the upside included First Health Group (NASDAQ:FHCC),
Apria Healthcare (NYSE:AHG), Aetna (NYSE:AET), United Health
(NYSE:UNH), and Tenet Health (NYSE:THC).

52-week High: 540
52-week Low : 366
Current     : 536

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 522
 50-dma: 494
200-dma: 440


Internet ($INX)

The INX.X was crushed for six percent Thursday.  Yahoo's
(NASDAQ:YHOO) earnings report failed to inspire bullishness.

Leaders to the downside included Yahoo, Overture (NASDAQ:OVER),
Double Click (NASDAQ:DCLK), Inktomi (NASDAQ:INKT), and
FreeMarket (NASDAQ:FMKT).

52-week High: 243
52-week Low :  76
Current     :  98

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 109
 50-dma: 115
200-dma: 128

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX spiked up to the tune of 10 percent in Thursday's
session.  The index closed just off of its 50-dma.

The VXN moved firmly above its 50-dma with the 3.80 percent
rally Thursday.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 22.24 +2.02
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 43.67 +1.60

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.91        635,113       575,334
Equity Only    0.73        511,124       373,417
OEX            1.00         29,093        28,998
QQQ            0.21         49,684        10,516
 
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          65      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    36      - 1     Bull Correction
DOW           63      + 0     Bear Alert
S&P 500       71      - 1     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       68      - 2     Bear Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.72
10-Day Arms Index  1.57
21-Day Arms Index  1.36
55-Day Arms Index  1.24

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1072           2081
NASDAQ    1214           2334

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      265             62
NASDAQ    223             90

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,511
NASDAQ   1,621

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 04/02/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

S&P commercials grew even more bearish during the most recent
reporting period, although by a smaller rate than the period two
weeks ago.  The group shed more longs than shorts for a small
increase in the group's net short position.  Small traders didn't
get any more bullish since reaching their yearly high, but they
didn't get any more bearish neither.  The group's position
remained near the yearly bullish high.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
03/19/02      322,938   410,494   (87,556)  (11.9%)
03/26/02      317,671   410,186   (92,515)  (12.7%)
04/02/02      313,294   406,337   (93,403)  (13.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/19/02      145,262     43,066  102,196     54.3%
03/26/02      148,111     40,409  107,702     57.1%
04/02/02      149,449     43,139  106,310     55.2%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials grew less bearish last week by reducing
their net short position by about 3,000 contracts.  Small
traders went in the opposite direction with a significant drop
in their net bullish position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
03/19/02       24,792     33,699    (8,907)  (15.2%)
03/26/02       25,275     33,880    (8,605)  (14.5%)
04/02/02       26,211     31,840    (5,629)   (9.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   7,774  - 12/21/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
03/19/02       11,637     5,527     6,110     35.6%
03/26/02       12,760     6,264     6,496     34.1% 
04/02/02       10,615     7,769     2,846     15.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow commercials grew slightly more bullish last week by adding
a few longs and maintaining their short position.  The net long
position increased by fewer than 1,000 contracts.  Small traders
dumped a few longs, resulting in an increase to the group's net
short position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/19/02       20,858    13,283    7,575     22.2%
03/26/02       17,973    12,539    5,434     17.8% 
04/02/02       18,717    12,549    6,168     19.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
03/19/02        4,651    10,367    (5,716)   (38.1%)
03/26/02        5,818     9,308    (3,490)   (23.1%) 
04/02/02        5,192     9,007    (3,815)   (26.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                          04-11-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/d11b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Plays:     SFA
  Bullish Play Updates:  SNE
  Bearish Play Updates:  BRCM, ISSX, MU, SAP
  Closed Bearish Plays:  HGSI


Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  ACF, DOL, OHP, PD

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  HIG, LUV
  Bearish Play Updates:  JNPR, QCOM

Split Trader
                         MCHP: 3-for-2 split announcement
                         ANN:  3-for-2 split announcement
                         PNG:  3-for-2 split announcement

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB New Plays
===============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Scientific Atlanta - SFA - cls: 20.61 chg: -0.48 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Scientific-Atlanta, Inc. is a leading supplier of transmission 
networks for broadband access to the home, digital interactive 
subscriber systems designed for video, high speed Internet, and 
voice over IP (VoIP) networks, and worldwide customer service and 
support. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It: 
Bears have been feasting again on cable-related stocks ever since 
ADLAC was annihilated on accounting concerns.  Cable providers 
such as AOL, CMCSK, and CVC have also been dropping on revenue 
concerns.  These actually all look like good shorts, but we're 
hesitant to try to chase them lower.  We prefer SFA because it 
hasn't seen the same type of dramatic selloff in recent weeks, 
but is still downtrending and threatening to break below support 
at $20.  Volume has been increasing over the past three sessions, 
indicating a buildup of downside momentum.  The MACD and daily 
stochastics look bearish as well.  However, we won't go short 
until SFA trades at or below $19.94.  If we are triggered, our 
initial stop will be $21.51.  The p-n-f chart shows a vertical 
bearish count of $16.  Shares may indeed reach this level, but 
we're going to initiate this play with a profit target at $17.50.  
This would be a gain of about 12 percent.  SFA announces earnings 
on April 18th.  Traders may want to keep this in mind, because 
we'll be closing out this play before the announcement.  

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- see text 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Sony Corp (ADR) - SNE - close: 51.70 change: -1.02 stop: 47.99

The Japanese Nikkei index ended down today and shares of SNE 
followed suit but have still managed to remain above support.  
The sideways trading above the $50 level should help build 
significant support here - if it will only hold.  The whopping 
the U.S. markets felt today will likely transfer into weak 
markets overseas tomorrow.  Traders may want to continue to 
remain on the sidelines and wait for some direction to emerge for 
SNE.  More aggressive traders can target dips to the $50 level as 
potential entries but if you were doing so we'd probably use 
tighter stops than we have listed.

Picked on April 4th at $53.01
Gain since picked:      -1.31
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (unconfirmed)
 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Broadcom Corp - BRCM - close: 33.50 change: +0.19 stop: 35.51*new* 

We are a bit surprised that shares of BRCM have been holding up 
so well lately.  The bearish trend is still intact and the SOX is 
showing a similar pattern but the declines have been slow and 
less than convincing.  News has been quiet the last couple of 
days for the company but one report came out today after the wire 
involving BRCM and 3Com.  3Com is disbanding their joint 
marketing agreement with BRCM and in a report filed last week 
with the SEC they state that BRCM's "material breaches" in their 
agreement were the cause.  The alliance was to market Gigabit 
Ethernet network cards and similar hardware.  Despite the news, 
it looks like BRCM is actually trade a little bit higher after 
hours on Thursday (it's hovering around the $34.40 area).  We are 
going to nudge our stop down a bit to $35.51.  It's not a 
material move but it places our stop just above the 20-dma.  
Traders may want to consider new positions if shares trade back 
under the $33 level.  Don't forget that BRCM is expected to 
announce earnings next Wednesday.

Picked on March 25th at $35.75
Gain since picked:       +2.25
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Internet Security - ISSX - cls: 20.03 chg: +0.39 stop: 20.75  

The fight for the $20 level continues for ISSX.  Shares are 
nearly even from where they closed on Tuesday.  This is in 
contrast to the plunge that continues in the GSO.X software 
index, which broke through support at 140.  We lowered our stop 
to $20.75 for ISSX on Wednesday and more conservative traders may 
want to use today's high of $20.60.  Earnings are fast 
approaching next Tuesday.  Aggressive traders might want to 
consider holding a small position over the announcement but it 
would be considered very risky.  We plan to close the play before 
the announcement.  As we look at some of the other security 
stocks in the group, CHKP still looks bearish and we might 
consider a short play if it breaks support at $20.  Just a 
reminder, but our exit price for ISSX is $17.01.

Picked on March 26th at $22.58 
Gain since picked:       +2.55
Earnings Date         04/16/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Micron Technology - MU - close: 29.20 change: -1.33 stop: 32.05

It's taken four days of churning sideways for shares of MU to 
finally move below our entry price and turn this play positive.  
Since this is the second close below the $30 level in a week it 
might be the one that sticks.  The trend does look pretty bearish 
so hopefully we can make some progress towards our target of $25.  
Traders looking for an entry point might want to use Thursday's 
close as their signal (obviously confirm the stock and sector 
direction on Friday morning).  More conservative traders could 
use the stock's 10-dma just over $31 as a possible guide to place 
tighter stops.  We are going to leave ours unadjusted for the 
moment.

Picked on April 5th at $29.85 
Gain since picked:      +0.65
Earnings Date        03/21/02 (confirmed)
 



---

SAP Aktiengesell - SAP - cls: 32.56 chg: -1.34 stop: 35.31 *new*

The plunging software sector as evidenced by the GSO.X just broke 
through the 140 level and looks like it's aiming for a retest of 
its September lows.  The overall sector weakness combined with 
weakness we have already seen in the CRM market is finally 
starting to weigh on shares of SAP.  It would appear that SAP has 
failed twice now at the $34.65 level in the last few days and the 
3.95 percent drop on Thursday put it below its 200-dma.  Volume 
has been picking up and we fully expect SAP will retest the $30 
level soon.  Short-term traders will want to consider taking 
profits there while the rest of us take aim at the $27.50 area, 
which is below the bullish support trend on the PnF chart.  
Additional information traders will want to stay abreast of is 
PSFT's earnings are expected on April 25th (looks like after the 
close).  Plus, there was word from SAP Systems Integration AG, a 
German information technology consulting company, which is 
majority owned by SAP.  SAP SI reiterated their full year 
guidance "despite modest first-quarter earnings".  This 
subsidiary of SAP is expected to announce its full quarterly 
earnings on April 30th, which makes us think SAP's earnings will 
be near or after this date.

Picked on April 9th at $33.28 
Gain since picked:      +0.72
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Human Genome Sci. - HGSI - cls: 17.23 chg: -0.07 stop: 18.10

Although HGSI closed well below our stop at $18.10, a morning 
rally pushed the stock above that level, which ended this play 
with a gain of about 5 percent.  There wasn't any specific news 
to explain the strength, but we did notice that shares firmed up 
yesterday after a press release from HGSI detailing its 
presentation at a recent cancer research conference.  Investors 
may also be covering positions ahead of earnings on Monday before 
the open.  Traders still looking to short biotech may want to 
wait for the BTK.X to break support at 450, but we'd avoid 
playing HGSI until after their earnings.  Despite our caution, we 
can't help but notice that the stock still looks pretty bearish 
and aggressive investors could use a small amount of high risk 
capital and hold over the Monday morning report.

Picked on April 5th at $19.05 
Gain since picked:      +0.95
Earnings Date        04/15/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Americredit - ACF - close: 41.35 change: -2.57 stop: 41.24 *new*

ACF looked due for some consolidation, but today's 205-point Dow 
Jones decline really accelerated that process. Due to the pending 
earnings announcement we seriously debated whether to close this 
play tonight.  However, we're opting instead to snug up our stop 
just under today's low of $41.26.  Barring a gap lower, this will 
prevent us from taking much more heat.  We're hoping a market 
rebound tomorrow will allow us a better exit point.  This play 
will be dropped as of tomorrow's close.

Picked on April 5th at $42.13 
Gain since picked:      -0.78
Earnings Date        04/15/02 (confirmed)




---

Dole Food CO. - DOL - close: 30.84 change: -0.04 stop: 30.31

More of the same for DOL.  Shares continue to trade in a very 
narrow range between $30.60-$31.00.  The oscillators have also 
flattened out and give no real hint as to which direction DOL 
will break next.  We do like how the stock has been strong 
relative to the broader market.  For example, it lost only 0.12 
percent today, while the Dow shed nearly 2.0 percent.  A market 
rebound might be what DOL needs to get moving to the upside.  
Traders who like this industry but aren't willing to wait on DOL 
might find more excitement in rival Chiquita (NYSE:CQB).

Picked on March 1st at $30.94
Gain since picked:      -0.10
Earnings Date        01/31/02 (confirmed)




---

Oxford Health - OHP - close: 43.04 change: +0.02 stop: 42.20

The HMO.X health provider index seems to be almost oblivious to 
the broader market.  Despite a triple-digit loss on the Dow, the 
index pegged a new all-time high of 539 today before finishing 
with a fractional loss.  That marks the fifth day in a row that 
it's tagged a new high.  It was only in the final two hours of 
trading that the HMO.X succumbed to the selling that plagued the 
rest of the market. OHP continued higher yesterday after breaking 
over resistance at $42 and hit an all-time high at $43.74 before 
pulling back.  Today's trading was more subdued, but nonetheless 
we were pleased to see it finish in the green.  The stock traded 
an "inside day," which traders may want to use for gauging 
entries.  

Picked on March 8th at $38.55
Gain since picked       +4.49
Earnings Date        02/05/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Phelps Dodge - PD - close: 40.08 change: -0.16 stop: 38.49

Nice relative strength in PD today, but it just couldn't manage 
to finish with a gain.  Shares hit an intraday high of $40.93 and 
declined steadily with the Dow as the session progressed.  A 
slight decline in copper futures (hg02k) may have also weighed on 
the stock.  All things considered, the stock managed to hold up 
pretty well, and the close over $40 is encouraging.  If the 
market rebounds tomorrow, traders still looking for entries may 
want to consider jumping on at current levels.  
 
Picked on April 10th at $40.24 
Gain since picked:       -0.16
Earnings Date         04/24/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Hartford Financial - HIG - cls: 68.45 chg: -0.86 stop: 66.49

Nearly every sector we watch finished in the red today, and the 
insurance group was no exception.  ALL, MET, PGR, and PRU all 
finished with losses, while HIG outperformed the Dow but still 
lost 1.24 percent.  Conservative traders may want to consider 
taking profits now.  Bears successfully defended resistance at 
$70, and HIG may see some more selling before making another 
attempt to break that level.  Since this is a high-risk play 
we're willing to give it more breathing room.  Our stop at $66.49 
will force the stock to trade under the 50-dma, which has 
supported the stock since last fall.  Aggressive traders may want 
to target entries on a bounce from $66.80-$67.00.   

Picked on March 13th at $65.74
Gain since picked:       +2.71
Earnings Date         01/28/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Southwest Airlines - LUV - cls: 18.34 chg: -0.37 stop: 17.99

LUV flirted with resistance at $19 on Wednesday but couldn't 
quite make it over that level.  Our hopes for another breakout 
attempt were dashed today, as the Dow Jones lost over 200 points.  
LUV mirrored the industrials and dropped nearly 2 percent.  On a 
more positive note, volume was average, and the stock out 
performed the XAL.X airline index.  Oil prices (cl02k) also 
continued lower today, which certainly doesn't hurt the sector.  
If the market rebounds tomorrow, LUV may make another run at $19.  
Traders looking to buy a dip to the 200-dma at $18.15 can do so 
with relatively small risk, since our stop is just under than 
level.

Picked on April 4th at $18.94
Gain since picked:      -0.60
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 10.34 chg: -0.54 stop: 10.76 *new*

Traders who opted to close out their positions ahead of earnings 
got an opportunity to cover into weakness, as JNPR gapped down 
this morning and finished with a 4.96% loss.  Of course, those of 
you who held positions are probably extremely curious about the 
outcome of tonight's earnings.  Juniper reported in-line Q1 
results and guided slightly lower for Q2.  In after-hours the 
stock initially traded lower on the news, but rebounded to finish 
the after hours session with a small gain.  This leads us to 
believe that the stock will gap slightly higher tomorrow.  The 
absence of any disastrous news may have some thinking that all 
the bad news is already priced in.  In order to protect some of 
our gains (+9.45% as of today's close), we're going to move our 
stop to $10.76.  We fully expect this level to be violated 
tomorrow morning, but brokerage downgrades before the open could 
change the sentiment very quickly.  We'll close out this play if 
it trades our profit target of $9.06.  

Picked on April 5th at $11.42
Gain since picked:      +1.08
Earnings Date        04/11/02 (confirmed)




---

QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 34.59 change: -0.71 stop: 36.06 *new*

Another weak day for the NASDAQ is just what we needed to get 
QCOM under support at $35.  QCOM gapped under that level this 
morning and continued lower, ultimately bottoming out at $34.22.  
Although we're pleased with its continued weakness, the stock is 
approaching the February lows near $32-$33.  We'd expect the 
bulls to vigorously defend that level.  With that in mind, we'll 
close out this play if QCOM trades at or below $33.51.  We're 
also inching our stop down to $36.06.  This should lock in about 
8 percent in gains, and will force the stock to trade over the 
50-hour MA.  This MA has pressured the stock for almost three 
weeks.  Entries could be tricky due to the nearby support, but 
short-term traders may want to consider entries on a rollover 
from $35.  Premier is currently up 12.3 percent on this play.

Picked on March 25th at $39.47
Change since picked:     +4.88
Earnings Date         04/24/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------


MCHP Designs 3-for-2 Stock Split

After the bell on Thursday, Microchip Technology Inc. 
(NASDAQ:MCHP) declared a 3-for-2 stock split.

This is the first stock split since 2000, when MCHP split its 
shares twice with 3-for-2 stock dividends.  This new stock split 
will have a stockholder record date of April 22nd, 2002.

The payable date for this 50% stock dividend should be May 8th 
with an effective date of May 9th, 2002.

Shares have been trading sideways the last five weeks and Wall 
Street expects the company to announce earnings around April 25th, 
2002.

MCHP closed at $42.73 on Thursday. For a current quote, click 
here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=MCHP

About the company
Microchip Technology Inc. manufactures the popular PICmicro® 
field-programmable RISC microcontrollers, which serve 8- and 16-
bit embedded control applications, and a broad spectrum of high-
performance linear and mixed-signal, power management and thermal 
management devices. Microchip is headquartered in Chandler with 
design facilities in Mountain View, Calif. and Bangalore, India; 
semiconductor fabrication facilities in Tempe and Chandler, Ariz. 
and Puyallup, Wash.; and assembly and test operations near 
Bangkok, Thailand. (source: company press release)


-----

Ann Taylor Sews Up 3-for-2 Split

Word came from AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) this morning 
that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 split of the 
Company's Common Stock.  The announcement came out with the 
company's March sales results, which were up over 16 percent from 
the same five-week period the last year.

The split will take the form of a 50% stock dividend and will 
distributed on or about May 20, 2002 to shareholders of record on 
May 2, 2002.   

This will mark the first time ANN has split since it started 
trading in 1991.  Much like the RLX.X retail index, shares have 
risen dramatically since September.  ANN is up 30.7% YTD.

The stock closed at $46.05 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=ANN


About the company
Ann Taylor is one of the country's leading women's specialty 
retailers, operating 544 stores in 42 states, the District of 
Columbia and Puerto Rico. (source: company press release)


-----

Penn-America Offers 3-for-2 Stock Split

Penn-America Group, Inc. (NYSE: PNG) announced a 3-for-2 stock 
split this morning.

The split will take the form of a 50% stock dividend, and will be 
distributed on May 9, 2002 to shareholders of record as of April 
25, 2002.  The company said that in order to maintain the current 
aggregate amount of annual dividends, it would adjust its annual 
dividend rate to reflect the split.

The stock also split 3-for-2 in 1997.  Shares have more than 
doubled in the past 18 months.  The strong rise in the most recent 
months mirrors the general pattern of the insurance sector.  Those 
looking to play PNG may want to be aware that the stock trades on 
low volume of 9100 shares/day.

PNG closed at $15.50 on Wednesday. For a current quote, click 
here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=PNG

About the company
Penn-America Group, Inc. is a specialty commercial property and 
casualty insurance holding company. The company's "thinking small" 
strategy - underwriting small entrepreneurial businesses in small 
"Main Street" towns through a small network of wholesale general 
agents - has delivered substantial long-term growth in the 
original "E"-business: serving entrepreneurs. (source: company 
press release)





==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


---------------------------------
Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

BR      Burlington Resources       41.10     +0.53
UST     UST Inc                    39.41     +0.86
RJR     RJ Reynolds Tobacco        67.26     +0.81
SHW     Sherwin-Williams Co        30.78     +1.18
SAH     Sonic Automotive           34.28     +0.93
BOBE    Bob Evans Farms Inc        30.67     +0.67

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

GYMB    Gymboree Corp              18.20     +2.25
BEAV    BE Aerospace Inc           13.03     +1.73
HZO     Merinemax Inc              15.05     +1.05
BELM    Bell Microproducts Inc     12.35     +1.15
JASA    Jo-Ann Stores Inc          19.20     +2.25

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

DGX     Quest Diagnostic           89.00     +1.53
JEC     Jacobs Engineering Group   38.35     +1.16
TUES    Tuesday Morning Corp       25.51     +1.49
PFCB    P.F. Chang's China Bistro  72.74     +1.14
AMGP    Amerigroup                 32.15     +1.66
SKO     Shopko Stores Inc          21.10     +1.13

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SBC     SBC Communications         33.75     -1.90
IBM     Intl. Business Machines    84.19     -4.82
GE      General Electric Co        33.75     -3.45
MWD     Morgan Stanley Dean Witter 51.64     -2.87
VZ      Verizon Communications     41.82     -2.08
MER     Merrill Lynch & Co         46.90     -4.02

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

WTSLA   The Wet Seal Inc           35.56     -1.79



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