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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 04/16/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 04-16-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Bear's run ends at six
Market Sentiment: Bulls back in control?
Play-of-the-Day:  Placing our bets

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U.S. Market Numbers
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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
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04-16-2002                  High     Low    Volume  Advance/Decline
DJIA    10301.32 +207.65 10308.17 10100.11 1.35 bln   2234/ 939
NASDAQ   1816.79 + 63.01  1816.91  1779.29 1.57 bln   2555/1042
S&P 100   561.29 + 13.57   562.20   547.72   Totals   4789/1981
S&P 500  1128.37 + 25.82  1129.40  1102.55             
RUS 2000  522.95 + 10.21   522.96   512.74
DJ TRANS 2881.40 + 78.75  2883.69  2803.04
VIX        20.30 -  2.08    21.72    19.92
VXN        39.44 -  2.43    40.75    39.05
TRIN        0.39 
PUT/CALL    0.64

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===========
Market Wrap
===========

Bear's run ends at six

In Thursday's market wrap I said we'd quickly review this month's 
play selection and look at both open and closed profiled trades.  
While I was gone on a brief vacation a lot has changed and it is 
very enlightening how our play list really does depict the 
market's action and perhaps helps us "call the market."  I will 
cover the bearish portion of our play list at the bottom of the 
wrap, but I want to quickly discuss some of last weeks market 
average/index action and tie it in with today's action.

My observation as of the end of today's close is that market 
action was driven by massive short covering along with an evenly 
distributed round of bullish buying in sectors that had been 
getting some support from the bulls.

One of the "key" sectors I felt bulls and bears should be 
monitoring last week for bullishness that could well spark a 
short covering rally in the broader market was the deeper 
cyclicals as depicted by the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index 
(CYC.X).  That sector continued to trade strong and actually 
bucked the broader market trend last week with a 2.1% gain.  Also 
strong last week were the Dow Transports (TRAN) with a 3.5% 
weekly gain, which was partially helped by a 3.9% weekly gain 
from the Airline Index (XAL.X).

If this is beginning to sound a little like our Friday market 
wraps then you're right on track.  There's a lot of action that 
is confirming some earlier thoughts that the our "key" sectors to 
be monitoring (cyclicals and transports) might hint the MARKET'S 
perception of future economic strength.  Today's bullish market 
action certainly brings many of those earlier thoughts into play.

Let's quickly review what we would have been looking at as of 
Friday's close.  I want to do this not only as a historical 
reference, but I truly feel it gives us insight into what took 
place today.  We'll do a little bit of "rear view mirror" 
forecasting, but tie it into what we've been talking about for 
several months and recent weeks.

What looks apparent to me is that the Cyclicals (CYC.X) truly are 
trying to pull the broader market averages and even the 
technology stocks out of a rut.  I will confess that the 
Semiconductors (SOX.X) were not really in a "rut" but had been 
under some selling pressure from "bearish" technology psychology 
that was really brought on by the telecoms (XTC.X and IXTCX) as 
well as the various "subgroups" of telecommunications (wireless, 
fiber optic and networking).

Weekly market averages/sector performance (Friday's closes)



Today's "sector winner" was the North American Telecom Index 
(XTC.X) 602.96 +10.23%.  Our potential short-covering rally alert 
from Thursday morning's 09:00 AM update and instruction to 
"tighten down those stops" in some bearish trades now looks to 
have been early by a couple of days, but the +10% gain the XTC.X 
really drives home the thought that the bulk of today's upside 
action or at least a very meaningful part of it was due to short 
covering.  To think that today's telecom action was some type of 
sudden "realization of excellent value" would have to be checked 
against similar thought of "excellent value" the week ending 
March 22nd when the XTC.X closed near a 52-week low, then 
suffered further declines the following two weeks.

I won't try and argue with the market that many of these stocks 
are perhaps "oversold" and due for a bounce, but I'm not wringing 
my hands with anxiousness to establish bullish positions in this 
group of stocks with the thoughts that I've got a bunch of bulls 
behind me to help lead a stampede higher.

Instead, I do feel that last week's ability for the Airlines 
(XAL.X), broader Dow Tranpsortation Average (TRAN) and Morgan 
Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) to trade strong and post weekly 
gains did have the proverbial "head of the snake" moving forward 
and help create a catalyst for short covering to take place in 
many of the beaten down technology stocks.  Today, the Dow 
Transports (TRAN) gained 2.8% and the Morgan Stanley Cyclical 
Index (CYC.X) gained 2.42%.  While these types of gains seem 
minimal to what the North American Telecom Index (XTC.X) did 
today, we have to remember that the XTC.X got clocked to the 
downside and new 52-week lows last week, while bulls made some 
gains in the cyclicals.

By quickly reviewing the "weakest sector" of the market in the 
North American Telecom Index (XTC.X) and what I feel is perhaps 
the "strongest sector" and also more meaningful for a pulse on 
economic growth (at least the MARKET'S perception) and the 
Cyclical Index (CYC.X) I get the feeling that both the "tail" 
(telecoms) and head (cyclicals) are moving higher.

Once again, I'll have a very close eye on the Cyclical Index 
(CYC.X) tomorrow.  The index closed strong and finished the 
session above the last week's relative highs of 587.21 with a 
close today at 587.78.  I feel a trade above the 590 level will 
then set the stage for a test of March highs.  Should we then see 
a break above the $600 level for this group, then the wheels 
could start to loosen for the bears.

Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index Chart - Daily Interval



While technology stocks "firmed" yesterday, they bounced strong 
today and bulls got some "confirmation" from the cyclicals or at 
lest some confirmation of leadership.  It's very tough for market 
rallies to take hold without some type of leadership group taking 
the reins.  The cyclicals appear to be one of the more 
economically sensitive groups that are confirming a scenario that 
the MARKET still believes in a scenario of economic growth going 
forward.  In our play list, we've profiled fellow Cyclical Index 
(CYC.X) component Phelps Dodge (NYSE:PD) $39.92 +2.09% as a 
representative stock.  

Another "cyclical" stock I like for bulls is shares of Du Pont 
(NYSE:DD) $48.10 +2.64%.  Technicals for Du Pont (DD) are very 
similar to what we're seeing in the CYC.X itself.  I like the 
stock as bullish tomorrow below $48.50 for 1/2 bullish position 
and would follow any bullish trades with a stop at $44.90.  Then 
look for a break above the $50.50 level and round out to a full 
position.  While the longer-term bullish vertical count from the 
point and figure chart is $68, my near-term bullish target would 
be the $54 level.

Du Pont Chart - Weekly Interval



The weekly interval chart of Du Pont (DD) hints of a reverse head 
and shoulders pattern.  Back in December, we identified a similar 
technical pattern is oil/gas producer Apache Corp. (NYSE:APA) 
just below the $50 level.  It may be interesting to note the 
current longer-term bullish count for Du Pont (DD) is $68.  The 
price projection from a reverse head and shoulders pattern on the 
bar chart would be approximately $67 if taken from the neckline 
at $50 and using $33 as the head.  Look for a bullish play 
profile from our "play writers" in the longer-term bullish play 
section of our play list.

Some "headline numbers

One "headline" that I mentioned in earlier commentary today at 
OptionInvestor.com that I simply forget to mention in the 01:00 
EST Update at PremierInvestor.net was that the Bank of Canada 
raised its overnight lending rate 25 basis points today to 2.25%.  
This announcement was made at approximately 09:00 AM EST.  This 
is meaningful as it marks the first rate hike by a major central 
bank since the terrorist attacks on September 11th.  Today's rate 
hike by the Bank of Canada didn't seem to come as a surprise to 
many "global rate watchers" but does hint that a major central 
bank sees some type of economic recovery taking place in the 
future and is taking back some of the rate cuts provided in the 
past 16 months.  

Another "headline" number close to home was today's Industrial 
Production for March which showed a gain of 0.7%, which was 
better than most economists consensus number for a 0.5% gain.  
This stronger than expected Industrial Production number most 
likely helped boos the deeper cyclicals as well as move some 
bears off their bar stools and cover some short positions.  Also 
released was the Capacity Utilization data which came in at 
75.4%, also better than or at least fractionally higher than the 
consensus estimates for 75.1%.  Economic bulls don't mind seeing 
some gains in industrial production as it hints that producers 
are bringing some production lines back online.  There's still 
plenty of room/capacity in the production system before inflation 
becomes a concern.  Most economists look for numbers higher than 
82-85% capacity to begin signaling some type of potential 
inflation or higher production costs coming into play.

A quick review of this morning's construction numbers looks to 
have been somewhat ignored by the markets today, if not 
downplayed as somewhat of a blip.  In this morning's 09:00 update 
we alluded to some economists "explanation" for the weakness in 
the housing starts and building permits for March, as a bit of a 
pullback from the warmer weather and more robust numbers found in 
January and February.  Some of those thought from economists this 
morning seemed to help "calm" the fears of bulls.

Play list review

I wanted to review both the bullish and bearish play lists as 
they stand for the month of March, but I'm already past my 
"editor's deadline" and want to at least make some notes as to 
what has taken place here.

I've written before that I like to keep track of each of our 
profiled trades that actually were triggered or would have been 
played by our subscribers.  I treat each trade as if we 
hypothetically would have place $5,000 into each trade (long or 
short) as this helps me see the play list as if it were my 
account.  

By reviewing the trades, I can make sure that I and our play 
writers are on the right side of things.  We will never win on 
every trade.  However, it is our goal to win on the bottom line. 

In a more bearish market environment like we've experience up 
until today, I would expect our bearish play list to be the 
better performer.  The thinking is that if the MARKET is going 
down, then our bearish play list had better be generating some 
bearish gains for our subscribers.  

At the same time, I would not be surprised if our bullish play 
selections were having "some difficulty."  While I hate to lose 
money on any trade, I still want to see some type of performance 
from the bullish section that is RELATIVELY better than what the 
MARKET would have given a trader/investor.

Here's a quick look at our bearish selections up to today's 
close.  Again, each play is "calculated" with a hypothetical 
$5,000 placed in each trade.  The number of shares will be 
rounded lower so that a subscriber would not have invested more 
than their hypothetical stated discipline of $5,000 in each 
trade.  While this may "assume" we're dealing with a $50,000 
account, a subscriber dealing with more or less can still see the 
percentage gain/loss based on a steady investment discipline for 
each play.

Bearish plays dropped and those still profiled



Those that are "colored" as black are plays that should be closed 
as the profiled stops were triggered or the plays were simply 
close out.  The Micron Technology (NYSE:MU) bearish play is still 
"open" and I've left it colored as pink.  In essence, this is 
still considered "money at risk."  

Last week we were alert to a potential short-covering rally like 
we're currently in.  As you can see, we had a nice run going of 
six consecutive "wins" (W/L is win/loss) and now we see two 
consecutive "Ls" as both SAP and CSGS were stopped out.

While I "believe" that SAP will give some type of cautious 
outlook as both PeopleSoft (PSFT) and Kronos (KRON) guided lower 
on earnings and their stocks got hammered, we set a stop on SAP 
where we felt the stock should not trade.  However, the stock 
traded that level and we were stopped out.  No matter how much I 
may "believe" the stock is headed lower, I've learned that the 
MARKET doesn't always agree with me on things and it is best not 
to try and fight the market.

What's left in our play list right now is one open bearish play.  
Yes, we moved down our stops rather tight, but that's because we 
were perhaps alert to a short-covering rally.

This type of "action" also helps us see that there is an 
underlying bid or strength to the current bullishness.  If that 
bullishness is "real" then I feel our remaining bullish plays 
that are open (9 of them) should do well if we're on the right 
side of things.

As it stands at today's close, our play list was bullish 9 plays 
and bearish 1 play.  This has me making the observation of 
bullishness in the market.

The "running total" would be a running total (excluding 
commissions) that a $5,000 exposure to each bearish play would 
show from date of profile until closed out.  As you can see, and 
has been pointed out in the past, a successful trader doesn't 
necessarily need to bat a high average to be deemed a success.  
Of the 16 plays dropped from the bearish list, 9 were winners 
while 7 were losers.  What is important for most 
traders/investors is the "running total" for their account.

While the above only represents the "bearish" side of things, I 
will point out that our "bullish" running total currently shows 
that of the closed plays, a hypothetical loss of $-456.87 is 
showing.  While trades still open and "marked to the market 
close" has the running total showing a loss of $-207.56.  I will 
discuss the "bullish plays" and April action tomorrow.  Please note 
the above mentioned "bullish play running total" does not include 
gains/losses of play listed in the "Long-Term Plays" list 
(SPLS, PETM, UNM, HC).

Lastly, I've put some "green" and "red" checkmarks by "percentage 
gains/losses" that I find interesting.  I don't like the 9.18% 
loss from our bearish play in CSG Systems (NASDAQ:CSGS) $26.44 
+7%, but a loss so steep and so soon after profile also hints 
that we perhaps have hit a near-term bottom where shorts were 
looking to lock in gains.  This loss also comes in unison with 
SAP Aktiengesell (NYSE:SAP) $35.41 +6.11% triggering our stop and 
hints that there may indeed be a lot of stocks currently rising 
with the tide.

From here, the strength of the tide will most likely be 
determined by what some of the stronger stocks in the market will 
do going forward.

One stock I want to make special mention of in our past bearish 
play selection is Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) $15.58 +3.79%.  I 
didn't look at the stock during today's trading session as it is 
not anywhere close to being on my radar screen as a bullish play.  
However, I did look at the stock after the close, expecting to 
see the stock trading $16.00.  While the past is no guarantee of 
the future, I would certainly have thought Cisco (CSCO) would 
have gained more than 3.7% on a day when the NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X) 
gained 4.34%.  The relative underperformance of CSCO today gives 
hint that the MARKET is perhaps still very cautious of many 
technology stocks and even networking stocks.  The Networking 
Index (NWX.X) gained 6.65% and it is rare to see CSCO not lead 
this sector.  Again, this hints that a lot of the bullishness 
found among technology stocks was most likely due to short 
covering in some very beaten down names.

Jeff Bailey



================
Market Sentiment
================

Bulls Back In Control?
By Eric Utley

Tuesday's rally was broad and deep.  Only one sector on my list
finished lower for the day.  That was the Gold and Silver Sector
Index (XAU.X) -- a defensive sector that we'd expect to finish
lower on strength in stocks.

Technology was particularly strong.  Pops of 5, 6, even 10 percent
were seen in the tech and telecom segments of the market.  TI's
(NYSE:TXN) and Novellus' (NASDAQ:NVLS) reports after the bell
Monday inspired a massive short covering rally in the Semiconductor
Index (SOX.X).  When the buying was done, the SOX.X finished 5.58
percent higher.  Whoa, Nelly!

The most constructive thing that I observed Tuesday was the
gain in the Nasdaq-100 Bullish Percent ($BPNDX).  The indicator
added 5 stocks, or 5 percent, for the day, which placed it only
two stocks away from a reversal back into bull confirmed.  That's
what I'm looking for over the coming days when deciding whether
or not to get bullish on tech stocks.  The next step would be a
shift into a bullish market, which would have me increasing my
long exposure in tech.

The short-term ARMS Index numbers I've been harping on worked
off a lot of the oversold condition that has been in place for
several days.  Follow-through tomorrow would put this indicator
well away from its previous extreme levels.

The only major cause for concern that I found with Tuesday's
rally was the implosion of fear once again.  The CBOE Market
Volatility Index (VIX.X) dropped 9.29 percent for the day.  It
was almost as if the last four weeks of pain in the S&P 100
(OEX.X) was forgotten in just one day.  That kind of unbridled
enthusiasm for stocks is not the type of sentiment on which
bottoms are formed.  Yes, I'm willing to trade to the upside,
but I'm more inclined to take quicker profits given the dearth
of fear.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages


DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     : 10301

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10231
 50-dma: 10220
200-dma:  9949

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1128

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1119
 50-dma: 1127
200-dma: 1135


Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1414

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1371
 50-dma: 1439
200-dma: 1513


Telecom ($XTC)

The XTC was the best performing sector in Tuesday's session.  It
gained 10.23 percent for the day.  WHOA!  Better-than-expected
earnings news induced a massive short covering rally in the
group.  But before you get too excited about the move in telecom,
take note of the index's 52-week low and high in relation to its
current quote.

Sector leaders included Nextel (NASDAQ:NXTL), WorldCom
(NASDAQ:WCOM), Sprint (NYSE:FON), MCI Worldcom (NASDAQ:MCIT),
and Qwest (NYSE:Q)

52-week High: 1028
52-week Low :  534
Current     :  603

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 792
 50-dma: 636
200-dma: 579


Gold and Silver ($XAU)

Tuesday's worst performing sector was the XAU.  Its 0.99 percent
loss was minor, but enough for the dog of the day.  Strength in
stocks caused a rotation out of the defensive XAU.

Leading to the downside included shares of Agnico Eagle Mines
(NYSE:AEM), Meridian Gold (NYSE:MDG), Apex Silver Mining Limited
(NYSE:SIL), and Placer Dome (NYSE:PDG).



52-week High: 73
52-week Low : 49
Current     : 69

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 69
 50-dma: 66
200-dma: 58

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Market Volatility

Not by surprise, the massive rally in stocks resulted in an
implosion of implied volatility.  The VIX dropped nearly 10
percent Tuesday.  While the strength in stocks was welcome,
the lack of skepticism made the rally suspect.

Fear in the Nasdaq-100 (NDX.X) has imploded in the last
three days.  The VXN dropped back below 40 Tuesday, losing
nearly 6 percent for the day.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 20.30 -2.08
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 39.47 -2.40

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          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.64        706,620       448,855
Equity Only    0.51        579,042       295,390
OEX            0.98         36,646        35,732
QQQ            0.61         50,074        30,644
 
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          66      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    40      + 5     Bull Correction
DOW           63      + 0     Bear Alert
S&P 500       71      + 1     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       68      + 0     Bear Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.42
10-Day Arms Index  1.47
21-Day Arms Index  1.30
55-Day Arms Index  1.24

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      2234            939
NASDAQ    2555           1042

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      240             12
NASDAQ    277             38

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,356
NASDAQ   1,574

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Commitments Of Traders Report: 04/09/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

S&P commercials' net bearish position dropped by about 2,500
contracts during the most recent reporting period.  But the
group remained decidedly bearish.  Even more disconcerting
for the bulls was the revelation that the spread between
commercials and small traders remained near a one-year high.
Small traders grew slightly less bullish, but not by a lot.
The group only reduced its net bullish position by about
3,000 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
03/26/02      317,671   410,186   (92,515)  (12.7%)
04/02/02      313,294   406,337   (93,403)  (13.0%)
04/09/02      320,101   411,075   (90,974)  (12.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/26/02      148,111     40,409  107,702     57.1%
04/02/02      149,449     43,139  106,310     55.2%
04/09/02      151,237     47,678  103,559     52.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials grew slightly more bearish last week.  The
group added about 600 contracts to their net bearish position.
Small traders went the other direction by adding to their net
bullish position.  The position gained about 600 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
03/26/02       25,275     33,880    (8,605)  (14.5%)
04/02/02       26,211     31,840    (5,629)   (9.7%)
04/09/02       28,985     35,221    (6,236)   (9.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   7,774  - 12/21/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
03/26/02       12,760     6,264     6,496     34.1% 
04/02/02       10,615     7,769     2,846     15.5%
04/09/02       11,640     8,353     3,287     16.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow commercials reduced their net bullish position by a small
amount during the most recent reporting period.  They did it
through adding more short than long positions.  Meanwhile,
small traders remained relatively flat.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/26/02       17,973    12,539    5,434     17.8% 
04/02/02       18,717    12,549    6,168     19.7%
04/09/02       19,393    13,445    5,948     16.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
03/26/02        5,818     9,308    (3,490)   (23.1%) 
04/02/02        5,192     9,007    (3,815)   (26.9%)
04/09/02        5,459     9,340    (3,881)   (26.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------


===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((New BEARISH play))
===============

Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 55.85 change: -2.50 stop: *text*

Company Description:
IGT is a world leader in the design, development and manufacture 
of microprocessor-based gaming products and software systems in 
all jurisdictions where gaming is legal. (source: company press 
release)

Why We Like It:
IGT first garnered our attention on April 3rd, when the stock 
gapped below support at $60.  The catalyst for the decline was a 
downgrade from Merrill Lynch.  Shares managed to fill in most of 
the gap, but sold off sharply after failing to maintain the $60 
level, which was the top of the gap and thus resistance.  What 
earned this stock a position on our Play List was today's 4.26 
percent decline, which pushed shares below the April 3rd low of 
$56.25.  We couldn't find any news to explain the decline, but 
Wall Street seems to have a decidedly negative bias on the stock.  
With shares in a month-long downtrend and firmly below the 200-
dma, we're included to agree.  A move below $55 could open the 
door for a decline to psychological and p-n-f support at $50.  
This would be a move of almost 10%.  However, in order to confirm 
a breakdown below psychological support at $55, we're going to 
place a trigger at $54.94.  If IGT trades at or below this level 
we'll go short with a stop at $58.51, just above today's high.  
This will also force the stock to trade above the 200-dma at 
$58.16.  We'll close this play if IGT reaches our profit target 
of $50.06.

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/23/02 (confirmed)
 






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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 04-16-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/d16b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls     
  Bullish Play Updates:  SNE, TTN
  Bearish Play Updates:  MU
  Closed Bearish Plays:  SAP, SFA

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Play:      IGT
  Bullish Play Updates:  PD, PDQ, PHM, WMT
  Closed Bullish Play:   DOL
  Closed Bearish Play:   CSGS

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Play:      AMZN
  Bullish Play Updates:  HIG, LUV
  Bearish Play Updates:  CVC

Split Trader
  Stock Splits
                         CNBC: 21-for-20 split announcement
                         HCBK: 2-for-1 split announcement


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================


===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Sony Corp (ADR) - SNE - cls: 53.70 chg: +1.53 stop: 49.99 

Shares of SNE bounced higher on Monday as the NIKKEI regained the 
11K mark.  This was a relief as we had cinched up our stop loss 
to just under $50 on the weekend as the Japanese markets slid 
under this support level on Friday.  The strong rally in the U.S. 
markets today really helped fuel a strong move for SNE as tech 
stocks lead the charge higher.  The last couple of sessions have 
actually shown increasing volume and the MACD is about to produce 
a bullish crossover.  We're are feeling pretty positive about 
this play now that is has establish strong support at $50 and our 
short-term target to $60 looks reasonable.  Traders can confirm 
market direction tomorrow and consider new entries at these 
levels.

Picked on April 4th at $53.01
Gain since picked:      +0.69
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Titan Corp - TTN - close: 22.00 change: +0.71 stop: 19.74

We were triggered on Monday when shares of TTN traded through our 
$21.26 suggested entry price.  The stock pulled back from its 
Monday highs but still managed to close above its 200-dma.  This 
was a bullish sign for investors and with the market in rally 
mode today the stock shot up at the open, pulled back toward the 
previous day's close and rallied higher again.  Unfortunately, it 
didn't quite make it above $22.00.  This was a resistance level 
we had identified in the original write up this weekend with the 
100-dma.  It also represents bearish resistance on the PnF chart 
but we do expect shares of TTN to burst through it.  Although the 
recent strength has the stock short-term overbought and we'd like 
to see it pull back to the $21.50 to $21.00 area and bounce 
again.  This would be a great opportunity to consider new 
entries.

Picked on April 15th at $21.26
Change since picked:     +0.74 
Earnings Date         02/12/02 (confirmed)
 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Micron Technology - MU - cls: 30.11 cng: +1.41 stop: 30.36 *new*

As positive comments begin to pop out of the chip sector now that 
Intel's earnings are out, the market has reacted very positively 
to the group.  The SOX has turned in a very strong reversal 
moving back up above the 600 level.  We are encouraged that MU 
has been a bit more subdued that many of its counterparts but 
shares still gained 4.9 percent on Tuesday.  The close above $30 
for MU is also a concern and we are going to lower our stop.  If 
the market believes (even if for a few days) that the chip sector 
might be recovering then we don't want to be short MU with a wide 
stop.  We're going to use today's high as our guide and place our 
stop at $30.36.  Odds are very good that we will be stopped out 
tomorrow but if this were the case the loss would be 51 cents.  
We would not recommend new positions at this time.

Picked on April 5th at $29.85 
Gain since picked:      -0.26
Earnings Date        03/21/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

SAP Aktiengesell - SAP - cls: 35.41 chg: +2.04 stop: 35.31 

The very strong three-day rally in the software group began to 
show up in shares of SAP on Monday.  The stock bounced higher 
from support at the 200-dma and then gapped higher today as the 
U.S. markets burst into a charge.  The longer-term supply/demand 
PnF chart has not changed yet but the MACD is started to reverse 
course and edge higher.  The move on Tuesday was enough to close 
above SAP's 50-dma and stop us out at $35.31.  We are skeptical 
that this reversal in the software group will hold but it may 
continue for a few more days yet.  Traders should be aware that 
we suspect SAP might have earnings this week (April 18th) but we 
can't confirm it.

Picked on April 9th at $33.28 
Gain since picked:      -2.03
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Scientific Atlanta - SFA - cls: 23.11 chg: +2.61 stop: *text*

Without truly positive news for SFA today, the 12.7 percent gain 
on Tuesday smells of short-covering.  Shares were almost vertical 
all day long as bears panicked to cover their positions.  SFA 
actually managed to close above its 50-dma and now we are left to 
speculate if the 200 and 100-dma just below $25.00 will be 
resistance.  The Premier newsletter was never triggered in the 
play so we have nothing at risk in our hypothetical portfolio but 
with earnings for SFA expected on Thursday we are going to drop 
the play and look for other opportunities.  

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- see text 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (confirmed)
 





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================


===============
AT New Plays
===============

  ----------------
  New Bearish Play
  ----------------

Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 55.85 change: -2.50 stop: *text*

Company Description:
IGT is a world leader in the design, development and manufacture 
of microprocessor-based gaming products and software systems in 
all jurisdictions where gaming is legal. (source: company press 
release)

Why We Like It:
IGT first garnered our attention on April 3rd, when the stock 
gapped below support at $60.  The catalyst for the decline was a 
downgrade from Merrill Lynch.  Shares managed to fill in most of 
the gap, but sold off sharply after failing to maintain the $60 
level, which was the top of the gap and thus resistance.  What 
earned this stock a position on our Play List was today's 4.26 
percent decline, which pushed shares below the April 3rd low of 
$56.25.  We couldn't find any news to explain the decline, but 
Wall Street seems to have a decidedly negative bias on the stock.  
With shares in a month-long downtrend and firmly below the 200-
dma, we're included to agree.  A move below $55 could open the 
door for a decline to psychological and p-n-f support at $50.  
This would be a move of almost 10%.  However, in order to confirm 
a breakdown below psychological support at $55, we're going to 
place a trigger at $54.94.  If IGT trades at or below this level 
we'll go short with a stop at $58.51, just above today's high.  
This will also force the stock to trade above the 200-dma at 
$58.16.  We'll close this play if IGT reaches our profit target 
of $50.06.

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/23/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Phelps Dodge - PD - close: 39.92 change: +0.82 stop: 38.49

PD headed lower on Monday, continuing a decline that began on 
Friday when its CEO issued negative comments concerning U.S. 
copper mining.  Shares dipped below the 50-dma but managed to 
move back above that level before the session ended.  Dip-buyers 
were rewarded today, as the stock gained 2.09 percent to close at 
just under $40.  The CYC.X cyclical index also put in a strong 
performance today and closed at near-term highs.  This could open 
the door for a move to 600 in the index.  Given the strong 
sector, we think entries in PD can be evaluated if the stock 
trades above $40.  More cautious traders may want to wait for a 
move above the recent high of $40.93.

Picked on April 10th at $40.24 
Gain since picked:       -0.32
Earnings Date         04/24/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Prime Hospitality - PDQ - close: 13.59 change: +0.44 stop: 12.84

PDQ keeps see-sawing up and down, but we'll be happy as long as 
the net result is positive.  Shares rallied 3.34 percent today 
and regained all of Monday's losses.  Although volume was a bit 
light, we're certainly not going to argue with the highest close 
in three weeks.  Hopefully momentum is building in anticipation 
of next week's earnings.  Entries can be considered at current 
levels, but more conservative traders may want to wait for a move 
about the March highs near $14.  We'll be watching the Marriott 
(MAR) earnings release on Thursday, as this could have an impact 
on the sector.

Picked on April 12th at $13.53 
Gain since picked:       +0.06
Earnings Date         04/25/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Pulte Homes - PHM - close: 49.47 change: -0.36 stop: 47.49

Today's 0.63 percent decline in the DJUSHB housing index stuck 
out like a sore thumb amidst the sea of green sectors.  The 
negativity can be attributed to this morning's economic data, 
which had housing starts and building permits both coming in 
under expectations.  The broader market rally propped up the 
sector and may have prevented more substantial selloff.  PHM was 
triggered yesterday after a brief jaunt above $50.  Shares gapped 
down sharply at the open, but quickly fought their way back above 
$49.  All in all, the sector and stock weathered the bad news 
pretty well.  We have all heard talk about a housing bubble but 
at the moment, the market expects the FOMC to postpone their next 
interest rate hike until August.  This would easily give the 
homebuilders a continuing chance to capitalize on the relatively 
low interest rate environment and the upcoming summer 
selling/building season.  If homebuilders resume their march 
higher tomorrow, entries can be considered on a move above 
Monday's high of $50.57.

Picked on April 15th at $50.13 
Gain since picked:       -0.66
Earnings Date         04/23/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Wal-Mart Stores - WMT - close: 60.00 change: +0.07 stop: 57.95

Trading in WMT was somewhat lackluster today, despite a 207-point 
gain on the Dow Jones.  We couldn't find any specific news to 
explain the relative weakness, but retailers in general 
underperformed the market today.  It actually wasn't too 
surprising to see some money rotate out of the sector after 
strong earnings from TXN, NVLS, and FON put the spotlight on tech 
stocks.  Technically, WMT is still hovering near the bottom of 
its ascending regression channel.  Today's close at $60 is 
positive.  Another close under this level would have us a bit 
worried.  Entries can be evaluated if the stock heads higher, but 
be aware of possible resistance near $62.

Picked on April 12th at $61.23 
Gain since picked:       -1.23
Earnings Date         02/19/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  -------------------
  Closed Bullish Play
  -------------------

Dole Food CO. - DOL - close: 30.83 change: +0.09 stop: N/A

We've given this stock more than enough time to perform, but its 
time is up.  DOL has gone flat and traded narrow range between 
$30.50 and $31.00 over the past two weeks.  The company announces 
earnings before the bell on Thursday, so we're closing this play 
tonight.  As much as we'd hate to drop the stock just before it 
gets a nice earnings-induced pop, the technical picture just 
doesn't warrant taking that risk.  Traders may want to take a 
look at DOL's competitor, CQB.  This stock has been more volatile 
and is approaching near-term highs.

Picked on March 1st at $30.94
Gain since picked:      -0.11
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (confirmed)




  -------------------
  Closed Bearish Play
  -------------------

CSGS Systems - CSGS - close: 26.44 change: +1.73 stop: 26.51

A bevy of positive earnings announcements and conference calls 
had the markets in an uproar today.  This put bears on the 
defensive from the opening bell and shares of tech, telecom and 
related stocks moved higher across the board.  Combine this 
bullish market atmosphere with news last night that a Colorado 
judged had dismissed a complaint by AT&T Broadband against CSGS 
(both Englewood, CO based companies) and we're surprised that 
CSGS didn't rally higher than its 7 percent gain today.  Although 
AT&T Broadband could still try and take CSGS to arbitration the 
dismissal is a big win for CSGS.  Aggressive traders could 
actually consider long plays now that shares have reversed and 
aim for a quick rebound to the $30 level of resistance, which now 
seems likely.  Shares of CSGS stretched just high enough late in 
Tuesday's session to stop us out at $26.51.

Picked on April 12th at $24.28 
Gain since picked:       -2.23
Earnings Date         04/29/02 (unconfirmed)





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR New Plays
===============

  ----------------
  New Bullish Play
  ----------------

Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 14.01 change: +0.12 stop: 12.80

Company Description:
Amazon.com opened its virtual doors on the World Wide Web in July 
1995 and today offers Earth's Biggest Selection. Amazon.com seeks 
to be the world's most customer-centric company, where customers 
can find and discover anything they might want to buy online. 
Amazon.com and sellers list millions of unique new and used items 
in categories such as electronics, computers, kitchen and 
housewares, books, music, DVDs, videos, camera and photo items, 
toys, baby and baby registry, software, computer and video games, 
cell phones and service, tools and hardware, travel services, 
magazine subscriptions and outdoor living items. (source: company 
press release)

Why We Like It:
We are bringing back this previous winner for us because it looks 
like shares are offering active traders another opportunity to go 
long.  The stock has been in consolidation and profit taking mode 
for five weeks.  It has taken that long for shares to pull back 
from the top of its ascending long-term channel to the bottom of 
the same channel.  The recent bounce at the 100-dma was confirmed 
with a quick three-day rally.  Despite the strength, shares of 
AMZN are hovering at their 50-dma as if the stock is not sure 
whether it wants to continue climbing or rollover again.  
Tuesday's strength in the Nasdaq and multiple tech sectors has 
brought renewed attention to the Internet group and AMZN might 
garner some extra interest as it approaches its next earnings 
announcement after January's announcement of its first 
"profitable" quarter (no snickering, please).  Technically the 
stochastics look bullish and the MACD is close to producing a 
bullish crossover.  We suspect that if the Nasdaq can keep the 
rally going for a couple of weeks then AMZN might be able to post 
some strong gains.  However, we have not yet decided if we will 
hold over the earnings report expected next Tuesday.  Our initial 
profit target is for a move towards the $17 level but the top of 
the channel is closer to the $19 - $20 area.  While we will start 
the play with a stop at $12.80, which is below Friday's low, we 
will not "enter" the play until AMZN trades at or above our 
trigger point.  This trigger point will be $14.35, or 5 cents 
above today's high.  More conservative traders might want to 
consider using $14.51 or $14.66 as their trigger points to go 
long, as both represent potential short-term overhead resistance.

Picked on April Xth at $xx.xx <-- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date        04/23/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Hartford Financial - HIG - cls: 68.65 chg: +1.12 stop: 66.49

A pullback in the insurance group had HIG moving lower yesterday.  
Shares briefly dipped below the 50-dma, and came within 30 cents 
of our stop before moving higher in afternoon trading.  The 
bounce continued into today's session, as HIG added 1.65 percent.  
The successful test of the 50-dma bodes well for this play.  
Previous bounces from this level have portended a string a 
positive days.  Traders looking to go long could consider taking 
positions at current levels, but be aware that the bears may 
continue to defend resistance at $70 and it may be more prudent 
to wait for a close over $70.  Premier Investor is currently up 
4.4 percent on this play.  Earnings are coming up next Monday.
   
Picked on March 13th at $65.74
Gain since picked:       +2.91
Earnings Date         04/22/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Southwest Airlines - LUV - cls: 18.93 chg: +0.43 stop: 17.99

A sudden reversal of fortune for deposed Venezuelan President 
Hugo Chavez had airline stocks moving lower yesterday.  The 
failed military coup means that instead of ignoring OPEC, the 
fourth-largest producer of oil will continue to toe the cartel 
line.  As could be expected, oil (cl02k) traded higher on the 
news.  Airlines, after popping higher on Friday, quickly gave 
back most or all of their gains.  LUV dropped back below $19 and 
fell as low as $18.30 before finding buyers.  Today's price 
action was more positive, as shares gained back 2.32%.  We'd be 
looking for another close over $19 to confirm bullish sentiment.  
LUV also releases earnings on Thursday.  Since this is a high-
risk play, we're going to go ahead and hold over the 
announcement.  Conservative traders may want to bail out 
tomorrow.  Frankly, we don't think the chances of a post-earnings 
sell-off are too high.  DAL announced today and only fell 1.26% 
despite missing Q1 estimates.  But just to be safe, we'll be 
tightening our stop tomorrow ahead of earnings.

Picked on April 4th at $18.94
Gain since picked:      -0.01
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (confirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cablevision - CVC - close: 28.45 change: +0.95 stop: *text*

Today's enthusiastic telecom rally spread to the beleaguered 
cable sector. CMCSK, SFA, and even the hapless ADLAC moved 
higher.  CVC rallied as well, with a 3.45 percent gain.  Since 
shares never traded below our trigger at $26.24, we have the 
advantage of sitting back to see how things play out.  We 
mentioned in the original update that a rollover near $29 could 
present as entry point.  We're not going to move our trigger up 
just yet, but another failed rally near $30.00-$29.50 could 
convince us otherwise.  A close over $30 would indicate that the 
bulls are a bit more in control, and we'll drop this play if that 
occurs.

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain  since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date        05/14/02 (unconfirmed)
 




==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcement
------------------

Center Bancorp announces 5% stock dividend, 
boosts quarterly dividend

Center Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: CNBC) announced at its annual 
shareholders' meeting today that the Board of Directors had 
declared a 5% stock dividend.  This is equivalent to a 21:20 stock 
split.  The Board also announced an increase in the quarterly cash 
dividend rate from $.143/share to $.17/share.  This represents an 
increase of about 19%.

The stock dividend will be payable on June 1, 2002 to stockholders 
of record on May 17, 2002.  The cash dividend will be distributed 
on August 1, 2002 to stockholders of record on July 18, 2002.

This marks the eighth time in the last eleven years that CNBC has 
paid a stock dividend or split its common stock.  Shares last 
split 21:20 in May 2001.

CNBC closed at $21.65 on Monday. For a current quote, click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=CNBC

About the company
Center Bancorp Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiary, Union 
Center National Bank, Union, New Jersey operates thirteen banking 
locations. Banking centers are located in Union Township (6 
locations), Berkeley Heights, Madison, Millburn/Vauxhall, 
Morristown (2 locations), Springfield, and Summit New Jersey. 
(source: company press release)

---

Hudson City announces 2-for-1 stock split, increases dividend

Hudson City Bancorp, Inc (NASDAQ: HCBK) released earnings today.  
In addition to earnings, the Company announced that its Board of 
Directors had declared a 2-for-1 stock split.  

The split will come in the form of a 100 percent stock dividend on 
its common stock, and will be paid on June 17, 2002 to 
shareholders of record on May 24, 2002.  

Furthermore, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash 
dividend of $0.16/common share.  This is a one-cent increase over 
the dividend offered last quarter.  The payable date for the cash 
dividend is June 3, 2002, to shareholders of record on May 10, 
2002.

This marks the first time HCBK has split since it began trading in 
1999.

The stock closed at $35.48 on Tuesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=HCBK


About the company
Hudson City Savings Bank is a well-established community banking 
institution with a long standing tradition of service excellence. 
With assets in excess of $11 billion, it has 81 full-service 
branches throughout 14 New Jersey counties making it the largest 
savings bank headquartered in New Jersey. (source: company press 
release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


04/16/02  ================== Trading Ideas ================== 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

DT      Deutsche Telekom           15.07     +0.87
AEG     Aegon                      24.75     +0.55
CBSS    Compass Bancshares         33.81     +0.51
OHP     Oxford Health Plans Inc    43.25     +0.68
RL      Polo Ralph Lauren          30.64     +1.09
FVB     First VA Banks Inc         57.16     +0.98

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AWE     AT& Wireless Services       9.43     +1.18
GMH     General Motors Corp        16.78     +1.18
FON     Sprint Fon Group           16.26     +2.79
PCS     Sprint Corp PCS Group      12.60     +2.58
ENTG    Entegris Inc               18.64     +1.64
EAGL    EGL Inc                    18.63     +1.65

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

TM      Toyota Motor Corp          56.60     +1.75
NSM     National Semiconductor     36.24     +2.84
MGA     Magna Intl. Inc            76.92     +1.87
ETN     Eaton Corp                 87.85     +3.34
ACF     Americredit Corp           45.50     +3.22
MAN     Manpower Inc               40.22     +1.24
ASMI    ASM Intl. N.V.             28.34     +2.44

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ADP     Automatic Data Processing  53.25     -1.65
HRB     H&R Block Inc              41.95     -2.53
ACS     Affiliated Computer Svc    50.55     -1.95
BSG     BISYS Group Inc            32.25     -1.05
MGAM    Multimedia Games Inc       26.24     -8.98

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

HNT     Healthnet Inc              26.00     -1.05
HCP     Health Care Property Inv.  41.40     -1.88
GGG     Graco Inc                  42.48     -1.86
HTHR    Hawthorne Financial Corp   30.75     -1.75
ASN     Archstone-Smith            28.06     -0.57
MEG     Media General              66.25     -0.61



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of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
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staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
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