PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 04-17-2002 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/d17b_1.asp ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Gold stocks shine, is copper next? Watch List: AMAT, EMLX, P, TGH, and more... Play of the Day: Flirting with resistance ******************************************************************* MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ******************************************************************* 04-17-2002 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 10220.78 - 80.54 10326.44 10188.26 1.37 bln 1671/1490 NASDAQ 1810.67 - 6.12 1832.01 1804.65 1.71 bln 1670/1868 S&P 100 559.73 - 1.56 563.79 558.38 Totals 3341/3358 S&P 500 1126.07 - 2.30 1133.00 1123.37 RUS 2000 518.77 - 4.18 523.79 518.77 DJ TRANS 2848.31 - 33.09 2882.72 2848.31 VIX 20.21 - 0.09 20.79 20.05 VXN 39.29 - 0.14 40.14 38.53 TRIN 0.81 Put/Call 0.54 ******************************************************************* =========== Market Wrap =========== Gold stocks shine, is copper next? Stocks traded sideways and look to be digesting yesterday's gains as the major market averages edged lower. The Dow Industrials were not able to hold onto earlier morning gains and finished down 80 points at 10,220, closing just back below a still trending higher 50-day moving average at 10,231, but still well above a trending lower 200-day moving average currently at 9,947. The broader S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) fell 2 points to 1,126 and edged back below its 50-day moving average, with the 200-day moving average serving as resistance earlier in the session at 1,134. Troubled sectors that weighed on the markets today was software stocks as depicted by the GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) 144.27 - 3.81% along with pharmaceutical stocks (DRG.X) 362 -1.6%, Retail (RLX.X) 956 -1% and Transports (TRAN) 2,848 -1%. Early this morning, May Crude Oil futures (cl02k) rose in the wake of larger than expected declines in inventory levels. There were also reports that OPEC has not yet made up the shortfall in oil output related to the Iraq embargo. By session's end, the May Crude Oil contract finished up 4.8% at $25.95/bbl. The higher oil prices in the futures market had the fuel price sensitive transports under pressure. The technology heavy NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) held gains for the bulk of the trading session, but soon fell back below the break- even level to finish down 10 points at 1,810. While early morning gains had the NASDAQ Composite briefly trading back above a trending lower 50-day moving average at 1,817, bulls couldn't muster enough strength into the close and with recent jitters ahead of many technology stock earning's report, it was a slow drift lower late in the day. Today's bright spot came from the Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X), which jumped 5% to $72.32 as April Gold futures (gc02j) traded back above the $300/oz. level to close at $302.10. Gold sector bellwether Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) $29.07 +3.12% helped lead gold stocks in their advance and finished the session at a new 52-week closing high of $29.07. Helping spur today's bullishness in gold stocks was some comments from Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony when he acknowledged that interest rates must eventually rise, but followed to say that due to low inflation and the lack of corporate pricing power, the Fed can wait until "sustained, solid economic expansion is in view." Mr. Greenspan then went on to say that the strength of the expansion "remains to be clarified." These two statements taken together had traders believing the Fed is not yet ready to raise rates and that thought may have had "gold bugs" bidding some gold stocks higher with the thinking that the longer the Fed leaves rates low, the greater the potential for a more robust growth picture down the road and a higher rate of potential inflation. International Business Machines meets lowered guidance After warning on Q1 earnings back on April 8th and seeing its shares fall from $97.25 to $87.41 (-10%) that day, computer giant and Dow component International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) $84.81 -1.6% reported Q1 net income $1.19 billion, or 68 cents a share, which met lowered guidance given on April 8th. The company said net income fell 32% from year-ago levels of $1.75 billion. The company said revenues for Q1 came in at $18.6 billion, down 12% from the year-ago quarter. Trading was halted during the release of earnings, and once resumed for after-hours trading, the stock gained roughly 2% to $86.50. IBM Chart - Daily Interval It's almost unthinkable to some that the Dow Industrials (INDU) have been able to hold relatively strong considering the recent shellacking that IBM has undergone. When the stock was trading near the $122 level, we actually warned bulls that the stock had traded its bullish vertical count from the point and figure chart. That didn't stop some from bidding the stock higher still to the $125 level as IBM seemed to be bucking the trend in technology weakness. We've noted before that the "big guns" are often times the last to fall. If IBM can begin building a base in the $80-$90 range over the next couple of months, that could be a good sign for technology bulls down the road. Are copper stocks about to surge? Gold stocks were shining today, but another "metal" also showed some luster today. Last week we added shares of copper producer Phelps Dodge (NYSE:PD) $40.84 +2.3% to our bullish play list and I like what I was from some stocks in this sector today. June Copper futures (hg02m) jumped higher at the opening of trading to $0.7295/lb which brought this contract back above its longer-term 200-day moving average. By session's end, this copper contract closed up 1.3% at $0.7395/lb and had two copper stocks I've had my eye on trading strong today. One stock that really looks to be a leader and a good one to monitor when correlating a trade is shares of Freeport McMoran (NSYE:FCX) $18.43 +4.59%, which surged to a new 52-week closing high. Freeport McMoran Chart - Daily Interval Today's action in FCS looks as if bulls are trying to front run tomorrow morning's earnings report. Consensus estimates are looking for a loss of -10 cents a share, compared to year ago earnings of +26 cents a share in the year-ago quarter. While the 12/31/99 highs of $21.43 may have some thinking the stock is reaching a longer-term peak, shares of FCX traded as high as $35 back in May of 1996. Phelps Dodge Chart - Daily Interval Phelps Dodge (PD) was able to close above our 61.8% retracement level and looks strong. MACD on the daily interval chart is starting to round out just above the zero level and this has been a good MACD setup in recent weeks to be looking for some "strong stocks" on pullbacks. A strong earnings report from Freeport McMoran (FCX) could bring more bulls to some copper/mining stocks. Near-term, I want to see a pick up in volume and get a good 2 million-share day near-term. If the stock simply drifts higher near the $45 level without any type of pick up in volume, I'd then look to sell strength. Until then, we'll want to monitor future action in FCX and perhaps get some further insight into the future. April bullish play review Last night we reviewed our bearish play list and made some comments regarding those trades. As mentioned in previous weeks, its been a rather tough market for the month of April for bulls to make money. For the most part, we've stuck with our intraday commentary and tried to "avoid" technology stocks and that's rather evident when reviewing our bullish play list. Only recently added Amozon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) $14.82 +5.78% shows four- letters in its stock symbol. I'm wondering if some of our "Net bulls" traders fell out of their trading chairs when they say good old Amazon.com back on the play list. Hey! AMZN treated bulls favorably the last time we profiled the stock as bullish (02/26/02 to 03/05/02 from $14.40 to $15.84 +10%). If a stock treats us right, we're always to trading the stock again. Considering we got a decent looking trade set up from similar levels found in March, the trade made sense. Bullish plays dropped and those still profiled In April, we've been using some tight stops on our bearish plays. A couple have been "too tight" and we had to drop the plays. I've marked both Cardinal Health (NYSE:CAH) $69.45 -0.71% and Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) $73.99 -1.47% as the two stocks I think we had stops set too tight on. However, under the market conditions at the time, part of our trading strategy was to try and preserve capital as economic data was mixed and things looked very tense in the Middle East and the MARKET was very jittery. Our biggest profiled loss from the bullish play list has been in H&R Block (NYSE:HRB) $40.39 -3.71%. This stock simply ran out of steam into the tax season and we didn't get the April run we thought we were going to get. The technicals were there as the stock looked ready to bounce from retracement support, but the technicals didn't hold and now the stock trades lower still. Some trades like Dole Food (NYSE:DOL) $30.57 -0.84% were given more than enough time in my opinion to prove themselves. While today's stopping out at $30.83 didn't help our batting average of W/L (win/loss) we didn't feel it was worth the potential risk of some type of negative forward earnings guidance to have subscribers holding that risk. The stock still looks technically strong, but a month-and-a-half was plenty of time for that "can of pineapple to have produced some fruit." The "biggest gains" found so far this month came from a short- term trade in Hanover Compressor (NYSE:HC) $19.61 -0.55%. We decided it best to take a quick gain off the table, but almost immediately profiled the stock in the "Longer Term Plays" section of the play list. Our other nice gain was found just recently in shares of Oxford Health (NYSE:OHP) $44.65 +3.23%. For the past week or so we had been challenging the stock with a tight stop. While I don't mind a nice 9% gain for our play list, today's surge in the HMO Index (HMO.X) hints at just how hungry the MARKET is for some of these HMO stocks. For the month of April, our closed plays would have had a bull investing an equal $5,000 in each trade down about $-474.58 so far this month. While our goal is to show subscribers gains with our play picking ability, I don't think we're doing too bad relative to the S&P 500 (SPX.X) which has declined -1.8% from its March 28th close, while the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) has declined roughly -1.9% since that same date. A trader having put $5,000 into each of our 10 dropped plays would have hypothetically lost about $-475.00 or roughly -0.95% (10 trades at $5,000 = $50,000 capital exposed, then $475 loss divided by $50,000=0.95%). Well, the month is only half over and there's a lot of work to be done. Hopefully between last night's review of the bearish profiled plays for April and tonight review of the bullish plays, you have some confidence in what we're doing. You and I can't control or dictate market volatility. Hopefully you can see how the NASDAQ's -1.9% decline so far this month doesn't really seem like a lot, nor does the S&P 500's decline of 1.8% (broader market averages). Looking ahead As I try and scour the market for some actionable entry points for trades, right now I'm having a hard time finding any. This usually happens when things get rather range-bound. I've looked at several stocks in various sectors and I can see a bullish advance taking place with shorts covering, just as easy as I can see bulls heading for the exits on any type of weakness. Even after doing further analysis in some potential trades, many of them really don't look to have the upside or downside potential for good risk/reward entry points. I truly feel that its not always in the best interests of subscribers to simply put some plays on our play list if the play writers or I don't have some type of conviction behind the trade. I don't like to say that I have a "favorite" trade, but I do like the action that took place in Phelps Dodge (NYSE:PD) today, combined with what we discussed in Freeport McMoran (NYSE:FCX). I also like last night's profile in shares of Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN). I think there's just enough "crazy" bears in that one that simply shorted it because it was Amazon.com. Yesterday during market hours I actually looked at Amazon.com (AMZN) as a stock that was looking bullish intra day. When one of our play writer's mentioned the stock last night, I thought that was a good coincidence. If a trader can book some 7-10% gains in bullish or bearish trades, then I really do think your "beating the market." Yes, there will be some that you sell too soon, but that's better than seeing some 7-10% gains get erased during earnings season when an upside/downside earnings surprise or forward guidance from a "like stock" in the sector your trading puts a fly in the ointment. Stay disciplined! Be true to your stops! And take profits when you've got them! Jeff Bailey Senior Market Technician ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Applied Materials - AMAT - close: 27.30 change: +0.22 WHAT TO WATCH: Chip stocks have put in a strong showing this week. The SOX.X semiconductor rose sharply on Tuesday after positive earnings from NVLS and TXN, and continued higher today after INTC announced in-line earnings on Tuesday. Chip equipment stocks have been among the strongest performers in the sector, and we think AMAT, KLAC, and NVLS should lead the way if the SOX.X continues higher. AMAT, currently on a (post-split) triple-top p-n-f buy signal, is looking especially strong. Shares gapped higher on Tuesday and are now threatening to break over resistance at $28. The MACD and daily stochastics are looking bullish as well. Although traders may want to consider buying a breakout above $28, we're looking for a pullback to offer a more favorable entry. If the stock pulls back and fills in Tuesday's gap, we may add it to the Play List. --- Emulex Corp. - EMLX - close: 28.90 change: +0.04 WHAT TO WATCH: We like EMLX as a potential short because it offers a favorable risk/reward setup. The stock is currently trading at the top of its descending channel and faces additional overhead resistance in the form of its 200-dma. Entries could be evaluated at current levels with a fairly tight stop just above the $30 level. EMLX offers near-term downside potential to last week's lows of $25.26. A move to the bottom of the channel would take shares all the way down to $20, but we'd likely need to see some significant NASDAQ weakness or negative company-specific or sector specific news for that to occur. Thursday evening's earnings announcement might provide such a catalyst for a breakdown. We wouldn't recommend taking positions ahead of earnings. Rather, we'd wait to see how Wall Street reacts on Friday and then consider going short if EMLX falls from the top of its channel. --- Phillips Petroleum - P - close: 60.39 change: +0.34 WHAT TO WATCH: Oil stocks have been unusually volatile lately. The price of oil (cl02k) moved higher on Monday following the failed Venezuelan coup. The trend continued today, as buyers pushed the commodity back above $25/barrel. The recent events are reflected in the OIX.X oil index, rebounded after dipping sharply lower. A move over resistance at 325 for the index would bode well for oil bulls. We think P stands out as a good way to play a move higher in the group. The stock bounced near the bottom of its ascending channel (bolstered by bullish p-n-f support) on Friday, and has since moved back above the $60 level. Oscillators confirm the reversal, with daily stochastics moving higher and MACD curling near the baseline. Traders willing to brave the potential volatility in the oil market could consider entries at current levels. We'd initially be targeting the top of the channel at $64. --- Trigon Healthcare - TGH - close: 76.77 change: +1.79 WHAT TO WATCH: We continue to be amazed at the strength of healthcare stocks. Shorts were running scared today after the HMO.X health provider index broke above its ascending channel. TGH moved higher with the sector and tacked on 2.38% en route to its highest close since early February. With the MACD uptrending and daily stochastics in the early stages of a reversal (albeit at an overbought level already), traders could consider entries at current levels. The stock may encounter resistance near $78, but the bears may yield in the face of continued sector strength. With the HMO.X now out of its channel, it's difficult to say where the index is headed next. A "rolled-up" retracement shows possible resistance near 567. A consolidation of some of today's gains certainly wouldn't be surprising, but we'd be a bit concerned if the HMO.X moves back under 540. ============= MORE TO WATCH ============= Alliant Tech Sys - ATK - close: 101.99 change: -2.87 This defense contractor broke over the $100 resistance level in late March. Shares have stayed in the triple-digits ever since, but seemed a bit overbought at $105. Now that shares have dipped, look for a successful retest of $100 to offer a possible entry. A move over 201 in the DFX.X would help to confirm bullish sector sentiment. --- Autodesk Inc. - ADSK - close: 38.20 change: -2.95 ADSK looks like an attractive short play. Shares appeared to have broken down through the bottom of its ascending channel last week. Then shares bounced off its 200-dma back to the edge of the channel and rolled over again. Today the stock gave up over 7% on high volume today and closed below its 200-dma. Watch for a break below support at $38. Our initial target would be $35, but we would not be surprised to see it trade to $32.50. Check out the PnF chart. --- DuPont - DD - close: 47.98 change: -0.12 Longer-term traders might want to take a look at DD. The weekly chart shows a clearly defined reverse head-and-shoulders, with the January lows forming the right shoulder. The p-n-f chart gives a bullish target of $68, but shares will first have to conquer resistance at $50. --- Forward Air Corp - FWRD - close: 28.52 change: -1.57 This stock has been looking weak in recent sessions, despite an bullish transports sector. A move below the 200-dma at $28.37 could lead to a retest of February lows. --- Northwest Airlines - NWAC - close: 20.05 change: +0.47 NWAC has been making headway in recent sessions and looks to be gathering momentum. The XAL.X airline index traded flat today, but NWAC added 2.4% and closed over resistance at $20. Investors may have been taking positions ahead of tomorrow's earnings. A positive reaction could send shares above the March highs near $21. --- United Tech - UTX - close: 69.80 change: -3.28 Ouch! Wall Street didn't take kindly to today's earnings announcement. UTX lost 4.48% and triggered a double-bottom p-n-f sell signal. We'd look for a move down to the 200-dma near $65. If this fails, look for a test of $60. =============== Play-of-the-Day =============== Hartford Financial Svc - HIG cls: 69.83 chg: +1.18 stop: 66.49 Company Description: Headquartered in San Diego, The Titan Corporation creates, builds and launches technology-based businesses, offering innovative technical solutions. For more than 20 years, Titan has provided comprehensive information systems solutions and services to the Department of Defense and intelligence agencies. Today, three of Titan's four core businesses develop and deploy communications and information technology solutions and services for both government and commercial customers. (source: company press release) - ORIGINAL WRITE UP: March 13th, 2002 - Why We Like It: Financial stocks may not have been the hottest sector this week but we feel the recent weakness may have given us a very attractive entry point on some short-term long plays. HIG, a massive insurance company, has been in a strong upward trend from last November. In the last couple of months the stock has traded through its pre-9/11 lows and re-conquered its 200-dma. Now that the group has seen some selling in the last several sessions the stock is resting near the bottom edge of its ascending channel. HIG's relative strength today in the face of a triple digit loss in the Dow Jones is encouraging. The recent pull back in HIG corresponds with the trend we see on the point-and-figure chart where shares will retrace three or four rows (O's) before bulls push it higher again. Currently the bullish price objective for HIG is near $82. We're only aiming for a quick short-term move to $70. If our short-term objective is achieved we'll re-evaluate. Traders should note that the last two sessions have seen buyers support the stock at its 50-dma near $64.50. We're going to initiate a stop just under this level at $64.45, which should limit our exposure to only 1.9- Some traders may want to wait and see HIG trade back over $66 before committing any capital. - Most Recent Update: April 16th, 2002 - A pullback in the insurance group had HIG moving lower yesterday. Shares briefly dipped below the 50-dma, and came within 30 cents of our stop before moving higher in afternoon trading. The bounce continued into today's session, as HIG added 1.65 percent. The successful test of the 50-dma bodes well for this play. Previous bounces from this level have portended a string a positive days. Traders looking to go long could consider taking positions at current levels, but be aware that the bears may continue to defend resistance at $70 and it may be more prudent to wait for a close over $70. Premier Investor is currently up 4.4 percent on this play. Earnings are coming up next Monday. - Play-of-the-Day Comments: April 17th, 2002 - Traders who bought Monday's pullback to the 50-dma have been rewarded with a move back to resistance at $70. HIG was unable to trade over $70 last week, but with daily stochastics now moving higher from mid-channel, we think this attempt may be successful. Entries can be targeted on a move over $70, although those of you who are more cautious may want to wait for a close above that level. Picked on March 13th at $65.74 Gain since picked: +4.09 Earnings Date 04/22/02 (confirmed) ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 04-17-2002 section 2 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/d17b_2.asp ================================================================= In section two: NetBulls Tech Stocks Closed Bearish Play: MU Active Trader Non-Tech Stocks Triggered Bearish Play: IGT High-Risk/High-Reward Stocks Triggered Bullish Play: AMZN Stop adjustment: LUV (long) Long-Term Plays Closed Bullish Play: PETM Split Trader Stock Splits Split Announcement: CUB: 3-for-1 split announcement OCFC: 3-for-2 split announcement WSM: 2-for-1 split annooucement Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Net Bulls - Tech Stocks (NB) section ================================================================== =============== NB Closed Plays =============== -------------- Closed Bearish -------------- Micron Technology - MU - close: 30.24 change: +0.13 stop: 30.36 A bullish reaction to Tuesday's INTC earnings had the chip sector trading higher this morning even after Tuesday's rally. The world's largest semiconductor company reported inline earnings and updated guidance for next quarter, which helped the SOX.X to a three day rally. We tightened our stop on MU last night after the stock closed above $30. Shares traded above the stop at $30.36 this morning, thus closing out our play for a 51-cent loss. With oscillators turning bullish and the SOX.X threatening to break over resistance near 615, we'd look elsewhere for bearish tech trades. Picked on April 5th at $29.85 Gain since picked: -0.51 Earnings Date 03/21/02 (confirmed) ================================================================= Active Trader/Non-tech Stocks (AT) section ================================================================= =============== AT Play Updates =============== Triggered Short Play -------------------- Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 55.65 change: -0.20 stop: 58.51 Blowout earnings from HET and MGG had casino stocks rocketing higher today, but someone forgot to tell IGT. Despite the strong sector news, shares sold off after the first hour of trading and descended below our trigger price at $55.94. This activated our short play with a stop at $58.51. Shares bounced in afternoon trading, but fell into the red again before the closing bell. Traders still looking to go short should watch for a break below today's low of $54.55. ================================================================== High Risk / High Reward (HR) section ================================================================== =============== HR Play Updates =============== Triggered Long Play ------------------- Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 14.82 change: +0.86 stop: 12.80 AMZN got a boost today after Soundview raised estimates on the stock, based on their belief that customer and online data indicates Q1 will be stronger than expected. The stock gapped higher on the news and quickly moved above our trigger at $14.35. Now that we're long on AMZN, our stop is set at $12.80. If targeting new entries, look for a move over today's high of $15. Or if you think shares might pull back, look for a dip to $14.50 or $14.00 if the Nasdaq pulls back. Long Stop Adjustments --------------------- Software Airlines - LUV - cls: 19.00 chg: +0.07 stop: 18.29 *new* With earnings from LUV due before the bell tomorrow, we're updating our stop to minimize the risk of getting caught in a sell-off. We'll close this play if the stock trades at or below $18.29, just under Friday's low. ================================================================= Long-term Stocks (LT) section ================================================================= =============== LT Closed Plays =============== -------------- Closed Bullish -------------- PETM - close: 14.80 change: +0.20 stop: N/A It's finally time to bid PETM adieu. The stock continues to uptrend in a steady fashion but is quickly approaching potential psychological resistance at $15. To avoid looking a very large gift horse in the mouth, we set a profit target at $14.90 on April 5th, 2002. That just happened to be today's intraday high, so PETM is closed for a $4.58 move from where we entered it. This represents a gain of 44 percent. Traders still looking for stocks with solid fundamentals may want to take a look at the other plays in our Long-term section. We have to admit we were hesitant to close the play because PETM has been so strong and resistance to market weakness. Shares are climbing very steadily and more aggressive traders could continue to let it run with a stop under the 20-dma. However, we would not recommend new positions because the stock does look very overbought and the oscillators are pegged at extended levels. Picked on January 25th at $10.32 Gain since picked: +4.58 Earnings Date June/02 (not confirmed) ================================================================= Split Trader Stock Splits (ST) section ================================================================= Split Announcements ------------------- Update & Payable Date for CUB 3:1 Split First announced back in February, Cubic Corp (AMEX:CUB) finally got approval for its 3-for-1 stock split by its shareholders at today's meeting. The record date, as expected, is April 17th, 2002. The payable date should be April 29th, which shares expected to be distributed on April 30th, 2002. According to the company's press release, this is the fifth stock split in Cubic's 51-year history. After the split, CUB will have about 26.7 million shares outstanding. The stock closed at $74.37 on Tuesday. For a current quote, click here: http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=CUB About the company The Cubic Transportation Systems Group designs and manufactures automatic fare collection systems for public mass transit, including rail and buses throughout the world. The Cubic Defense Applications Group provides instrumented air and ground combat training systems, battle command training simulations, and simulation support for U.S. and allied military forces. The group also produces high technology avionics, data links and communications products for government and commercial customers and provides a wide range of technical and logistics services. (source: company press release) --- Shelling Out 3-for-2 Split at OCFC After the bell today, OceanFirst Financial Corp (NASDAQ:OCFC) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock split in the form of a 50% stock dividend. The shareholder record date will be May 3rd, 2002 with the payable date being May 17th, 2002. Thus, we expect shares to begin trading at their new price on Monday, May 20th. Cash will be paid to shareholders who receive fractional shares as a result of the split. Shares have been riding a tidal wave from their mid-January lows near $24.00. The stock closed at $31.71 on Wednesday. For a current quote, click here: http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=OCFC About the company OceanFirst Financial Corp.'s subsidiary, OceanFirst Bank, founded in 1902, is a federally-chartered stock savings bank with $1.7 billion in assets and sixteen branches located in Ocean, Monmouth and Middlesex Counties, New Jersey. The Bank is the largest and oldest community-based financial institution headquartered in Ocean County, New Jersey. (source: company press release) --- Good News from WSM & a 2-for-1 Split Before the bell this morning, Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (NYSE:WSM) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common stock. The shareholder record date for the split will be April 29th, 2002 and the split is expected to be effective on Thursday, May 9th, 2002. This news came soon after the company raised their guidance on Q1, Q2 and the rest of 2002 (all this morning). Management said that results were being driven by stronger sales, better than expected gross margins, and the continued success of cost management initiatives throughout the Company (source: co. press release). Shares of WSM have been very strong for investors and have more than doubled from their September 2001 lows near $22.00. The stock is also approaching its old highs near $60 from the Q4 of 1999. This is the second 2:1 split since 1998. The stock closed at $46.75 on Tuesday. For a current quote, click here: http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=WSM About the company Williams-Sonoma, Inc. is a nationwide specialty retailer of high quality products for the home. These products, representing six distinct merchandise strategies, Williams-Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, Pottery Barn Bed + Bath, Hold Everything, and Chambers, are marketed through 423 stores, six mail order catalogs and four e-commerce web sites. (source: company press release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change RD Royal Dutch 54.46 +0.60 HI Household Intl. Inc 60.70 +1.18 CI Cigna Corp 108.45 +0.96 PEG Public Service Entrpr Grp 45.77 +0.85 NBR Nabors Industries Inc 43.21 +1.41 BSC Bear Stearns Companies 66.41 +0.99 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change MOT Motorola Inc 16.33 +1.33 WEBX Webex Communications 18.08 +2.23 CTLM Centillium Communications 14.11 +1.18 WG Willbros Group Inc 18.61 +1.31 TENT Total Entrtnmnt Restaurant 11.78 +1.88 MRGE Merge Technologies 9.08 +1.18 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change JPM JP Morgan Chase & Co 37.27 +1.89 ALL Allstate Corp 41.06 +2.01 UNH United Health 79.57 +2.72 CNI Canadian Natl Railway 50.37 +1.47 MGG MGM Mirage Inc 38.27 +2.40 ATH Anthem Inc 64.65 +2.44 HET Harrah's Entertainment 50.43 +3.49 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change PFE Pfizer Inc 37.85 -2.05 HRB H&R Block 40.39 -1.56 CBT Cabot Corp 31.38 -1.42 SCHL Scholastic Corp 47.65 -4.14 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change UTX United Technologies Corp 69.80 -3.28 BA Boeing Co 45.37 -3.33 SLM USA Education Inc 93.65 -3.55 ODP Office Depot 20.05 -1.69 MYG Maytag Corp 44.85 -1.10 CUM Cummins Inc 47.56 -2.27 CPG Chelsea Property Group 56.31 -1.93 MDP Meredith Corp 44.09 -0.37 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. 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