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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 04/18/2002

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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Pass the smelling salts!
Play-of-the-Day:  From bad to worse
Market Sentiment: It's tough out there

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U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
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       4-18-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA  10,205.28  - 15.50 10,258.84 10057.00 1.6 bln   1513/1805
NASDAQ   1802.43 -  8.24  1818.79  1778.10  1.8 bln   1538/1621
S&P 100   559.36 -  0.37   562.34   550.9997 Totals   3051/3426
S&P 500  1124.47 -  1.60  1130.48  1124.47
RUS 2000  518.57 -  0.20   519.56   513.78
DJ TRANS 2799.21 - 49.10  2852.06  2799.21
VIX        21.31 +  1.13    22.34    20.46
VXN        39.34 +  0.05    40.86    38.82
TRIN        1.15
CBOE Put/Call Ratio: .97
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===========
Market Wrap
===========

Pass the smelling salts!

I'm not a real big fan of boxing, but I've seen a few boxing 
matches on TV where two fighters are dancing around the ring and 
each fighter looks to be evenly matched with the other, then 
boom, one fighter throws a punch that looks harmless at first, 
but seconds later the fighter that was hit with the jab finds his 
knees buckling and down he goes.

The fighter that is still standing then walks back to his corner, 
arms in the air, as if proclaiming victory, but after a quick 
dose of smelling salts, the previously knocked down boxer is back 
on his feet and comes back fighting, putting up a gallant effort 
into the closing bell to end the round.

The fighter that had been knocked down earlier in the round, then 
goes back to his corner to further collect his thoughts and 
assess what happened just minutes earlier, and when he goes to 
sit down in his corner, one of his trainers reaches into the ring 
and pulls the stool out from underneath the boxer and he's back 
on the mat.

As I write, this is how I feel and how most other traders 
probably feel after today's session.  There were moments 
throughout the session when both the bulls and bears looked to be 
in control.  The punches thrown by both weren't just little jabs 
either, the swings were rather wild and had some force behind 
them.

I'll get to the "pulling out from under" of the bar stool later, 
that comes from after-hours lowered guidance from Microsoft 
(NASDAQ:MSFT) $56.37 -0.45%, which had the stock trading as low 
as $53.50 in post-market action, but today's plane crash in 
Milan, Italy had the markets showing turmoil and seemed to be a 
dose of reality that will most likely weigh on market psychology 
near-term.  

Last night when I went to bed, I was thinking "I forgot that last 
Thursday was the 11th and that would have been 7 months since the 
terrorist attacks in the U.S.."  Then I remembered that I was too 
excited about my then upcoming vacation and was also focused on 
that day's market action to have remembered.  

Today's plane crash in Milan, Italy looks to have been an 
unfortunate accident and not an act of terrorism, but it did seem 
to serve as a bit of a reality check to many traders and 
investors.  The MARKET reacted almost exactly the way the futures 
markets responded the morning of September 11th, when the planes 
hit the World Trade Center towers in Manhattan.

S&P 500 Index Chart - 5-minute interval




Unfortunately, the MARKET does respond rather quickly and 
sometimes very emotionally to news events.  The 5-minute interval 
chart shows just how quickly the MARKET reacts to news.  The one 
news item that gets under my skin is when an Italian government 
official is quick to say the plane crash was a terrorist attack 
and 10-minutes later, when he's got more information, then 
confess the plane crash was probably an accident.

I find it interesting just how quickly the market seemed to 
"correct" itself and come right back up to trading levels found 
prior to the first news breaking from the crash.

On the above chart, I've marked the 1,120 level.  This is where 
S&P futures are trading after software giant Microsoft 
(NASDAQ:MSFT) $56.37 -0.45% reported earnings that look to be as 
confusing to analysts as today's trading was for the market.  As 
has been the case in recent quarterly reports, its confusing to 
many if analysts estimates include certain charges or one-time 
gains, compared to what Microsoft (MSFT) reports for their 
earnings.

Shares of MSFT have traded very volatile in after hours trading, 
with the general direction of lower, but I'm going to go with the 
company reporting earnings of $2.738 billion or 49 cents a share 
(including a 15 cent a share gain from the sale of Expedia and a 
14 cent a share loss related to investment impairments), up 12% 
from $2.451 billion or 44 cents in the year-ago period.

Analysts had expected MSFT to earn 51 cents a share (confusion 
remains if analysts factored in the one time gains and/or losses 
reported on the income statement by MSFT), on average, according 
to a survey of analysts as polled by Thomson Financial/First 
Call.

As it stands, it looks as if Microsoft (MSFT) missed estimates by 
2 cents.  At 06:30 PM EST, I'm showing trading in after-hours at 
$54.89.

John Connors, Microsoft's chief financial officer said, "The 
demand for IT infrastructure in corporations is likely to be 
muted in the short term, but we think that it could be better by 
the first half of 2003.  If IT demand and PC shipments improve 
beyond our expectations, they will lift all boats in our 
industry."

Instead of an earnings shortfall, Connors emphasized the 
company's operating income, which rose 10% to $3.3 billion.  
Connors said the company made a "difficult short-term profit 
decision" in the quarter to ensure future earnings.

Sales for the quarter rose 13% to $7.25 billion, driven by 
stronger overseas sales of the XP operating software.  Analysts 
were looking for sales to gain 14% to $7.34 billion.  While the 
bottom line numbers are rather unclear as it relates to analysts 
estimates, its at least clear that revenues did come in slightly 
lower than expectations.

Microsoft gave guidance for FY03 (ending this June) and gave EPS 
guidance of $1.89-$1.92 which is below current consensus of $2.05 
a share.  Microsoft said revenues would be between $31.5 and 
$32.4 billion, which was also below current consensus of $32.7 
billion.

Earning's season is tough

One of the reasons I became "frustrated" as a fundamental analyst 
years ago was/is some of the stuff we see above.  Heck, I can 
read an income statement and understand it, but a "fundamental" 
investor counts on the analysts making the estimates to be 
consistent and either factor in or leave out a potential one-time 
charge.  

After pouring through several different newswire pieces, it looks 
as if some analysts did factor in both the gain and charge that 
Microsoft reported, while some analysts only factored in the gain 
from Expedia, but made no mention of the 14- cent charge.

Phelps Dodge Update

In last night's market wrap, I talked about the bullish action 
that took place in Freeport McMoran (NYSE:FCX) $18.31 -0.65% and 
briefly mentioned that the company had reported a loss of 1 cent 
a share, which was much better than the consensus estimates for a 
10-cent a share loss.

On the surface, this seemed potentially bullish for today's 
trading in shares of Phelps Dodge (PD).  While PD did trade 
higher earlier in the morning, there looks to have been some 
information in FCX's conference call that squelched a bull's 
enthusiasm.

After I read through company comments regarding recent quarterly 
earnings, here are my impressions of what looks to be taking 
place in copper/industrial metals area.

FCX is both a gold and copper producer, while PD is more pure 
play on copper. FCX notes that while both copper and gold prices 
rose during the quarter, those price gains in the metals were 
offset by lower sales.

Thought:  Earnings were higher as a result of higher metals 
prices, but not because of increased demand for the metal.  This 
has me now thinking that the industrial customers of FCX were not 
expanding production and this may be of economic importance as it 
relates to bullish price action in the industrial metals sector.

Sales fell 12% as mining of a lower grade of ore in Indonesia's 
Grasberg mine cut into production.  Gold production at the mine, 
the world's largest, fell by almost half from a year-ago. Copper 
output was down 11% as prices declined. 

Freeport expects production to rise later this year on higher 
quality ore, forecasting sales of 1.5 billion pounds of copper 
and 2.3 million ounces of gold in 2002. 

Last year, Freeport had said production at Grasberg would fall 
because it was mining ore that contained less copper and gold. 
Copper production fell in the first-quarter to 296.1 million 
pounds from 33.4 million a year-earlier and gold production fell 
to 336,600 ounces, down from 644,700 ounces. 

Thought:  In all, I get the perception that DEMAND is still 
rather weak for these metals, but prices are perhaps rising as 
production is lower. Between the two, you get a "break-even to 
flat" type of scenario as each offset each other. 

For an "economic bull" you/we/I would want to see demand building 
and Freeport doesn't seem to think this is happening at this 
point. 

As such, a shorter-term trader most likely needs to re-think FCX 
and PD as short-term investments. Both point/figure charts of FCX 
and PD are still bullish longer-term and seems to hint that any 
demand increases are most likely a couple of months away at the 
least. This may also hint that a robust economic outlook is also 
rather slow.

Note:  I'm not precious metals or industrial metals analyst, but 
the term "lower grade" is used in the industry to depict a grade 
of metal or ore that is not of higher quality that would be used 
in jewelry.  Just as in the oil industry, there are various 
"grades" of oil that are distinguished and used for either motor 
oils or plastics depending on their purity.

In all, we can perhaps draw from some of Freeport's comments and 
observations, but it does not look to me as if their upside 
surprise was a function of building demand for the commodities 
they mine, but simply a result of lower production levels and 
higher prices for the ores they uncover.

Therefore, it now becomes very important to monitor copper prices 
for bulls in Phelps Dodge (PD).  The recent bullishness in both 
FCX and PD now has me thinking that the stocks price performances 
are more tied to the price of copper/gold and not necessarily a 
call by the MARKET of a robust economy that is driving demand 
from the commodity itself.

Now, before we begin to think "the sky is falling" and this whole 
copper scenario for a growing economy has fallen apart, we should 
become further focused on other cyclical areas too.  I won't 
discount the comments or thoughts from Freeport or my own, but 
I'm now on "heightened alert" that demand isn't necessarily 
driving price gains in the underlying metals, but a near-term 
lack of supply.

eBay trades lower after earnings

I'm not going to go into as much detail with eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) 
$53.04 -3.44% earnings as I did with Microsoft (MSFT).  However, 
the company did report earnings that beat estimates by 2 cents 
(reported earnings of $0.18 a share).  Revenues rose 59% to 
$245.1 million, which was in line with consensus of $245.5 
million.  For Q2, the company did give guidance for revenues of 
between $260-$265 million, which is lower than consensus of 
$265.6 million and puts EPS at $0.17 a share, which is inline 
with estimates.

What stood out as a bit of a negative and has the stock trading 
down at $51.10 (-3.6% from close) was the company's comments 
regarding declining advertising revenues.  eBay said its 
advertising revenues were about 8% of total revenues in the 
latest quarter, down from 13% in the fourth quarter.  On a more 
comparative basis, advertising revenues actually fell 32% from 
the previous quarter.  This is a rather steep decline at a time 
when some in the industry thought the ad market was starting to 
recover.  This steep drop in ad revenue raises some concerns 
about eBay's ability to meet their more aggressive growth goals.

This "advertising revenue" shortfall will most likely have other 
Internet relates stocks under some selling pressure at the 
opening of trading.

Last night I discussed our bullish play in Amazon.com 
(NASDAQ:AMZN) $14.26 -3.77%.  In after-hours trading, shares of 
Amazon.com (AMZN) slipped lower to $14.00.  Amazon.com was 
profiled as a "high risk/high reward" type of trade.  

We are going to keep our stop as profiled for now at $12.88.  A 
more active trader that was looking for some momentum to build 
may however want to reassess things based on eBay's comments and 
snug a tighter stop under the trade.  I will note that Amazon.com 
is similar to eBay in that they sell product via the Internet and 
are not totally dependent on ad revenue.

One stock that is more dependent on ad revenue is Yahoo! Inc. 
(NASDAQ:YHOO) $15.06 -5.22%.  The point and figure chart 
currently looks bearish and vertical count is to $10.50.  In 
after-hours trading, YHOO was lower at $14.74 and looks 
vulnerable near-term to the $13.53 level, which was is very close 
to the February 22nd relative low of $13.41.  Bearish traders 
looking to play on eBays ad revenue numbers may find YHOO 
attractive as a bearish candidate tomorrow.

Yahoo! Inc Chart - Daily Interval




In last night's wrap I mentioned that there were a lot of stocks 
that looked like they could go either way (up or down) and YHOO 
is perhaps a good example of what I was trying to describer.  
Yesterday, the stock was sitting right on an upward trend and 50% 
retracement.  Today's action does have the stock slipping back 
below upward trend and closing below our 50% retracement.  With 
eBay's earnings showing that ad revenue actually declined during 
the recent quarter, this will most likely have YAHOO under 
pressure in the coming sessions.  A short-term traders target can 
be identified at the 38.2% retracement level of $13.53 and the 
19.1% retracement level of $10.82 ties in pretty close with the 
bearish vertical count from the point and figure chart of $10.50.  
I would be looking short/put shares of YHOO at current levels or 
and follow with a stop to begin with at $16.10 (just above the 
04/15/02 high).  From after-hours trading of $14.74 a decline to 
the short-term target of $13.53 would represent a decline of 
8.2%.  If achieved in the course of 2 or 3 sessions, I would look 
to lock in gains.  Then if a bounce were to take place after a 
successful short-term bearish trade (the stock is volatile) a 
bearish trader could look to short the bounce (back near $14.50-
$15) for another shot at $13.53 or longer-term goal near $11.

There are no economic reports scheduled for tomorrow.  Earnings 
are pouring out and I strongly suggest that all traders/investors 
be monitoring "like stocks" for stocks you are trading.  
Sometimes there are things said in some of the comments that may 
help you create or establish trading scenarios or put you on 
alert for potential moves.  Not only in the stock that reported 
earnings, but stocks you currently hold.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bearish)
=========================
(( new NetBulls short play ))

Computer Assoc. - CA - close: 18.49 change: +0.00 stop: 20.26

Company Description:
Computer Associates International, Inc. delivers The Software 
That Manages eBusiness. CA's world-class solutions address all 
aspects of eBusiness management through industry-leading brands: 
Unicenter for infrastructure management, BrightStor for storage 
management, eTrust for security management, CleverPath for portal 
and business intelligence, AllFusion for application life cycle 
management, Advantage for data management and application 
development, and Jasmine for object-oriented database technology. 
Founded in 1976, CA serves organizations in more than 100 
countries, including 99 percent of the Fortune 500 companies. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It: 
There is plenty to be bearish about if you're a CA investor.  The 
stock has been hammered this last quarter as it became known that 
the government was investigating CA's accounting practices.  
Since then we've seen brokers lower their ratings on the stock 
because of the risk that the final SEC outcome might cause CA to 
have to restate previous earnings.  In CA's most recent news, 
shares gapped up this morning because the DoJ had closed an 
inquiry into the company's recent acquisition of Sterling 
Software Inc. but that inquiry was closed with no action taken 
last night.  The fact that shares were unable to rally on good 
news shows just how depressing the overall concern is for the 
company.  Technically, the stock has been battling back from its 
February lows only to run smack into resistance at the $22 mark.  
Three times shares of CA tried to rally above this level and 
three times they were rejected.  When the 50-dma finally came 
close, traders have been using it as a guide to apply pressure to 
the stock.  Now that the stock has closed under the recent lows 
near $19.00 we feel that more selling may be in store.  A retest 
of the $16.00 level seems almost imminent and CA might even hit 
the $15 mark again.  This new rollover has also caused a 
beautiful bearish crossover in the MACD just under the zero line.  
With volume rising on the declines, it looks like a pretty strong 
short.  The PnF chart also shows the rebound from the heavy 
selling early this year and the clear rollover and bearish 
breakdown again.  We are going to start with a stop at $20.26, 
which is just under the 10% level of risk.  Speaking of risk, the 
largest risk for bears in this play is a sudden announcement that 
the government investigation is closed without any action taken.  
While we don't expect that to occur in the near future, it is a 
risk.

Picked on April 18th at $18.49 
Gain since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date         05/14/02 (unconfirmed)
 




================
Market Sentiment
================

It's Tough Out There
By Eric Utley

News reports of a plane crashing into a building sent the buyers
into hiding Thursday.  But they re-emerged later in the day to
repair much of the earlier damage.  If nothing else, Thursday's
tape reinforced that there's a new element of risk at play in the
stock market.

Away from stocks, Treasuries opened weaker Thursday morning, but
saw a rush of defensive posturing following the reports from
Italy.  But the rally in Treasuries faded as the day wore on
and fears subsided.  Still, Treasuries finished higher for the
day.  Across the curve, buying was most concentrated in the
shorter-end.  Shorter maturities obviously carry less risk, so
the aggressive buying of the 13-Week, for example, isn't positive
for stocks.  The 13-Week Yield (IRX.X) finished at 1.670%.  The
benchmark 10-Year Yield (TNX.X) close at 5.215%.

The same defensive buying that was taking place in Treasuries
drove the Gold and Silver Index (XAU.X) to a new yearly high,
just shy of the 74 mark.  But buying that move proved a mistake
as the XAU.X staged a sharp reversal into the close of trading.
The XAU.X finished 2.29 percent lower on the day.

The most important development over that last two sessions was
the Nasdaq-100 Bullish Percent ($BPNDX) reversal into Bull
Confirmed in Wednesday's session.  What I found completely
perplexing is the level from which the $BPNDX reversed.  It
traded down into the February bottom, maintaining the pseudo
bullish support line in the indicator.  Support lines for the
bullish percent charts just don't make sense, but apparently
that didn't stop some big money folks from brining in some
shorts over the last two days.

To digress, the Nasdaq-100's (NDX.X) reversal into bull
confirmed in February led to a six day rally of about 8
percent.  It remains to be seen if there's a repeat performance,
but it should be dually noted that the rally in February
failed.

The way I'm playing the $BPNDX bull confirmed status is through
very selective bearish positions, only those that offer very
good downside with small upside risk.  I'm also getting slightly
more aggressive with bullish plays, particularly NDX type stocks
in upward trends near support.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages


DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     : 10205

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10230
 50-dma: 10242
200-dma:  9947

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1124

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1119
 50-dma: 1128
200-dma: 1134


Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1396

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1372
 50-dma: 1436
200-dma: 1509


Biotechnology ($BTK)

The BTK earned the day's best performing sector spot Thursday.
It gained 2.43 percent on the day, narrowly outpacing the 2.04
percent pop in the HMO Index (HMO.X) -- what a run in that group!

Sector leaders included Andrx (NASDAQ:ADRX), Protein Design
Labs (NASDAQ:PDLI), Enzon (NASDAQ:ENZN), and MedImmune
(NASDAQ:MEDI).

52-week High: 676
52-week Low : 411
Current     : 491

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 471
 50-dma: 496
200-dma: 525


Wireless ($YLS)

The YLS returned to the day's worst performing sector Thursday,
when the index shed 3.19 percent.  The gorilla of handset makers
in Nokia (NYSE:NOK) lowered its forecast.  Incidentally, Nokia
was the worst performing component of the sector, losing 12.26
percent on the day.

Other notable movers included Nextel (NASDAQ:NXTL), Ericsson
(NASDAQ:ERICY), AT&T Wireless (NYSE:AWE), and Vodafone (NYSE:VOD).

52-week High: 131
52-week Low :  61
Current     :  69

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 67
 50-dma: 70
200-dma: 89

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX spiked intraday on the news of a plane hitting a building
in Milan.  Curiously, the VIX spiked to its 50-dma, from where it
rolled over.

The VXN finished fractionally higher on the fractional weakness in
the Nasdaq-100 (NDX.X).  The VXN is having trouble sticking above
the 40.00 level, which is a short-term benchmark of mine.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 21.31 +1.13
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 39.38 +0.09

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.97        676,625       653,163
Equity Only    0.81        528,825       430,708
OEX            1.37         30,546        41,808
QQQ            1.75         27,640        48,441
 
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          66      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    43      + 3     Bull Confirmed
DOW           57      - 7     Bear Alert
S&P 500       71      + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       66      - 2     Bear Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  0.95
10-Day Arms Index  1.33
21-Day Arms Index  1.31
55-Day Arms Index  1.21

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1540           1566
NASDAQ    1823           1652

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      179             19
NASDAQ    213             32

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,367
NASDAQ   1,622

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 04/09/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

S&P commercials' net bearish position dropped by about 2,500
contracts during the most recent reporting period.  But the
group remained decidedly bearish.  Even more disconcerting
for the bulls was the revelation that the spread between
commercials and small traders remained near a one-year high.
Small traders grew slightly less bullish, but not by a lot.
The group only reduced its net bullish position by about
3,000 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
03/26/02      317,671   410,186   (92,515)  (12.7%)
04/02/02      313,294   406,337   (93,403)  (13.0%)
04/09/02      320,101   411,075   (90,974)  (12.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/26/02      148,111     40,409  107,702     57.1%
04/02/02      149,449     43,139  106,310     55.2%
04/09/02      151,237     47,678  103,559     52.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials grew slightly more bearish last week.  The
group added about 600 contracts to their net bearish position.
Small traders went the other direction by adding to their net
bullish position.  The position gained about 600 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
03/26/02       25,275     33,880    (8,605)  (14.5%)
04/02/02       26,211     31,840    (5,629)   (9.7%)
04/09/02       28,985     35,221    (6,236)   (9.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   7,774  - 12/21/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
03/26/02       12,760     6,264     6,496     34.1% 
04/02/02       10,615     7,769     2,846     15.5%
04/09/02       11,640     8,353     3,287     16.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow commercials reduced their net bullish position by a small
amount during the most recent reporting period.  They did it
through adding more short than long positions.  Meanwhile,
small traders remained relatively flat.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/26/02       17,973    12,539    5,434     17.8% 
04/02/02       18,717    12,549    6,168     19.7%
04/09/02       19,393    13,445    5,948     16.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
03/26/02        5,818     9,308    (3,490)   (23.1%) 
04/02/02        5,192     9,007    (3,815)   (26.9%)
04/09/02        5,459     9,340    (3,881)   (26.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                          04-18-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
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In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Plays:     CA, SRNA
  Bullish Play Updates:  SNE, TTN

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  PD, PDQ, PHM
  Bearish Play Updates:  IGT
  Closed Bullish Play:   WMT

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  AMZN, HIG
  Bearish Play Updates:  CVC
  Closed Bullish Play:   LUV

Split Trader
                         MAXS: 3-for-2 split announcement
                         UPC:  3-for-2 split announcement
                         WL:   2-for-1 split announcement

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB New Plays
===============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Computer Assoc. - CA - close: 18.49 change: +0.00 stop: 20.26

Company Description:
Computer Associates International, Inc. delivers The Software 
That Manages eBusiness. CA's world-class solutions address all 
aspects of eBusiness management through industry-leading brands: 
Unicenter for infrastructure management, BrightStor for storage 
management, eTrust for security management, CleverPath for portal 
and business intelligence, AllFusion for application life cycle 
management, Advantage for data management and application 
development, and Jasmine for object-oriented database technology. 
Founded in 1976, CA serves organizations in more than 100 
countries, including 99 percent of the Fortune 500 companies. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It: 
There is plenty to be bearish about if you're a CA investor.  The 
stock has been hammered this last quarter as it became known that 
the government was investigating CA's accounting practices.  
Since then we've seen brokers lower their ratings on the stock 
because of the risk that the final SEC outcome might cause CA to 
have to restate previous earnings.  In CA's most recent news, 
shares gapped up this morning because the DoJ had closed an 
inquiry into the company's recent acquisition of Sterling 
Software Inc. but that inquiry was closed with no action taken 
last night.  The fact that shares were unable to rally on good 
news shows just how depressing the overall concern is for the 
company.  Technically, the stock has been battling back from its 
February lows only to run smack into resistance at the $22 mark.  
Three times shares of CA tried to rally above this level and 
three times they were rejected.  When the 50-dma finally came 
close, traders have been using it as a guide to apply pressure to 
the stock.  Now that the stock has closed under the recent lows 
near $19.00 we feel that more selling may be in store.  A retest 
of the $16.00 level seems almost imminent and CA might even hit 
the $15 mark again.  This new rollover has also caused a 
beautiful bearish crossover in the MACD just under the zero line.  
With volume rising on the declines, it looks like a pretty strong 
short.  The PnF chart also shows the rebound from the heavy 
selling early this year and the clear rollover and bearish 
breakdown again.  We are going to start with a stop at $20.26, 
which is just under the 10% level of risk.  Speaking of risk, the 
largest risk for bears in this play is a sudden announcement that 
the government investigation is closed without any action taken.  
While we don't expect that to occur in the near future, it is a 
risk.

Picked on April 18th at $18.49 
Gain since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date         05/14/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

SERENA Software - SRNA - close: 15.52 change: -1.28 stop: *text*

Company Description:
SERENA Software, Inc. is the Enterprise Change Management (ECM) 
industry leader. For over twenty years Serena has focused 
exclusively on providing application change management solutions 
to the world's leading enterprises, and today its products are in 
use at over 2,750 customer sites -- including 42 of the Fortune 
50 (source: company press release)

Why We Like It: 
These days it's not hard to find weak software stocks to short, 
but it can be a bit tricky finding one that doesn't look near-
term oversold.  SRNA looks like an attractive short because of 
the way shares have broken down after spending almost two weeks 
consolidating near $16.  This level coincides with the 61 percent 
retracement (January highs to September lows), and was 
enthusiastically abandoned today after a downgrade from 
Prudential.  The high-volume 7.6 percent decline forced shares 
below near-term lows, and the February low of $15.18 is in danger 
of being violated.  Today's move also created a triple-bottom 
breakdown on the p-n-f chart and furthermore, daily stochastics 
are beginning to curl lower with plenty of room to drop.  With a 
litany of bearish technical developments, it's tempting to short 
the stock immediately.  However, we're going to be a bit more 
cautious with our entries and wait for SNRA to trade below 
possible psychological support at $15.  We'll go short if the 
stock trades at or below $14.94.  Support may emerge at $14, but 
we'll be targeting a move to the next retracement level near $12.  
Given the recent weakness in the software sector (driven home by 
tonight's MSFT earnings), the bulls not put up much of a fight.  
If we are triggered, we'll start this play with a stop at $16.51, 
just above today's high.

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- see text 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        02/21/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Sony Corp (ADR) - SNE - cls: 53.87 chg: +0.07 stop: 49.99 

Despite growing competition from MSFT in the game console 
business, shares of SNE appeared to react mostly to the plane 
crash news from Italy as the broader markets dipped intraday.  
There was plenty of talk about MSFT's move to slash its prices of 
its X-Box by 38% in Europe to better compete with SNE's 
Playstation 2.  SNE's shares have traded sideways the last two 
sessions while the Japanese NIKKEI 225 Index remains above the 
11K mark and closed at 11,575 today.  We are encouraged by the 
newborn bullish crossover in the MACD but right now it's so small 
you can barely see it.  We would still encourage patience before 
considering new plays.  Traders have had plenty of time to target 
shoot entries near $51 for the last couple of weeks and waiting 
for SNE to get through resistance at $53 should be worthwhile.

Picked on April 4th at $53.01
Gain since picked:      +0.86
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Titan Corp - TTN - close: 22.40 change: +0.15 stop: 19.74

Our defensive electronics play continues to inch higher despite a 
pull back in several of the larger manufacturers today (like UTX, 
HON and BA).  TTN did dip with the broader market over the crash 
news but quickly recovered and managed a 15-cent gain.  We 
continue to be encouraged by the stock's strength but five up 
days in a row is just begging for a pull back.  We would not 
encourage new entries at this time but would prefer to see some 
profit taking pull TTN back to its 200-dma near $21 (or even 
$21.25 to $21.50 might work).  More conservative traders may 
still want to wait and see if TTN can clear the PnF overhead 
resistance between $22 and $23.  A move to $23.01 should do it.  
All players should take note that TTN just announced today that 
it would be reporting its earnings on April 25th, 2002, which is 
next Thursday.

Picked on April 15th at $21.26
Change since picked:     +1.14 
Earnings Date         04/25/02 (confirmed)
 




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Phelps Dodge - PD - close: 39.28 change: -1.56 stop: 38.49

A pullback in the CYC.X cyclical index pressured shares of PD 
today.  However, the index shed only 1.60 percent versus the 3.81 
percent decline in PD.  Why the relative weakness?  We didn't see 
any company-specific news, but earnings from fellow copper 
producer FCX may have adversely impacted the stock.  The rival-
company said that although copper price gains rose during Q1, 
those gains were offset by lower sales.  The lower demand for 
copper implied by this statement likely means that PD will also 
see lower sales.  Today's decline on stronger-than-average volume 
and does not bode well for bulls.  Although shares bounced from 
near-term support at $39 and closed on the 50-dma, we think 
buying this dip is best left to aggressive traders.  Lets wait 
for the smoke to clear and see if PD can stay above support.  
Don't forget that PD's earnings are next Wednesday.

Picked on April 10th at $40.24 
Gain since picked:       -0.96
Earnings Date         04/24/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Prime Hospitality - PDQ - close: 13.03 change: -0.17 stop: 12.84

Today's plane crash in Italy was a fresh reminder to investors of 
just how vulnerable the markets are to the threat of terrorism.  
Although most stocks rebounded from their intraday lows, PDQ 
declined steadily throughout the session and closed just above 
the lows for the day.  Our stop remained intact - but just 
barely.  We wouldn't be surprise to see that level violated 
tomorrow.  Aggressive traders could consider a low-risk entry at 
current levels, but be sure to confirm a bounce up from the $13 
level first.  In sector related news, MAR reported better-than-
expected earnings this morning.  This seemed to have little 
impact on shares of PDQ.  PDQ is expected to announce earnings 
next Thursday.

Picked on April 12th at $13.53 
Gain since picked:       -0.50
Earnings Date         04/25/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Pulte Homes - PHM - close: 49.21 change: -0.21 stop: 47.49

PHM continues to trade in a narrow range between $48-$50.  Like 
the Dow Jones, shares dipped sharply around lunchtime before 
rebounding in afternoon trading.  Overall, the 21-cent decline 
wasn't too shabby.  Most related stocks such as BZH, CTX, KBH, 
and RYL all saw heavier losses.  The DJUSHB home construction 
index has also been range-bound.  We'll likely need to see some 
movement in the sector if PHM is going to move over resistance at 
$50.  Traders looking to confirm bullish conviction should wait 
for a close over this level.  In recent sessions the stock has 
briefly journeyed over resistance, but it's been almost a month 
since shares closed above $50 (aside from our entry price).  Note 
that PHM announces earnings on next Tuesday.

Picked on April 15th at $50.13 
Gain since picked:       -0.92
Earnings Date         04/23/02 (confirmed)




  
  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 54.00 change: -1.65 stop: 58.51

This short play was triggered yesterday after IGT failed to rally 
with the gaming sector.  You'd think earnings blowouts from MGG 
and HET would have IGT moving higher as well, but the stock just 
can't seem to find a bid.  Shares lost another 2.96 percent today 
and closed at levels not seen since early November.  With IGT 
displaying relative weakness and trading below support, we think 
entries could be considered on continued weakness from current 
levels.  If the stock recoups some of today's losses a failed 
rally at $55 might also be a good time to consider short 
positions.  We are pleased that shares are falling on stronger 
than average volume, which is a good sign for the bears. 
Remember, we'll close this play out if it hits our profit target 
of $50.06, which should be directly above support on both the 
daily and PnF charts.  We will likely lower our stop if IGT can 
post another close under the $54 level tomorrow.  Don't forget 
that IGT's earnings are next Tuesday.

Picked on April 17th at $54.94
Gain since picked:       +0.94
Earnings Date         04/23/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------
  Closed Bullish
  --------------

Wal-Mart Stores - WMT - close: 58.15 change: -1.14 stop: 57.95

WMT declined for the third session in a row today.  Yesterday's 
close under $60 had us concerned, and others may have felt the 
same way, as evidenced by the lack of buying interest this 
morning.  Shares had managed to stay above $58, but that level 
was abandoned after the plane crash in Italy.  WMT sold off to an 
intraday low of $56.74 before buyers moved back in.  This move 
down violated our stop at $57.95, which closed out our long play 
with a net loss of $3.28.  Technically, WMT looks like it may be 
due for some more selling.  The stock has broken below its 
ascending regression channel and oscillators are looking bearish.  
Additionally, today's decline created a double-bottom breakdown 
on the PnF chart.  We may give the stock a second look on a 
bounce from the 200-dma near $55, but for now it's time to step 
aside.

Picked on April 12th at $61.23 
Gain since picked:       -3.28
Earnings Date         02/19/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 14.26 change: -0.56 stop: 12.80

AMZN broke out of its month-long downtrend yesterday and traded 
above our trigger at $14.35.  The stock flirted with resistance 
at $15 but wasn't able to come close to that level today.  The 
3.77 percent decline didn't come on any specific news, but we did 
notice that the fellow dot-commers EBAY and YHOO traded in a 
similar fashion.  Speaking of EBAY, they released earnings after 
the bell today.  Q1 profits came in higher than expected, but the 
stock was trading down in after-hours on concerns of future 
growth.  We'll see how the brokerages weigh in tomorrow morning, 
but the AMZN was trading near $14 in after-hours.  Although the 
MACD is showing a recent bullish crossover, we wouldn't recommend 
new entries until the EBAY news has been digested.  We'll be 
happy with a close over $14 for AMZN on Friday.

Picked on April 17th at $14.35
Gain since picked:       -0.11
Earnings Date         04/23/02 (confirmed)




---

Hartford Financial - HIG - cls: 69.29 chg: -0.54 stop: 66.49

Try as they might, the bulls just couldn't push HIG above 
resistance at $70.  Shares hovered under that level in morning 
trading but quickly yielded to sector-wide selling, as ALL and 
PGR suffered post-earnings declines.  HIG also dipped with the 
rest of the market on the news out of Italy.  Shares eventually 
bounced from a low of $68.27 and proceeded to move higher for the 
remainder of the day.  Overall, HIG weathered the negative sector 
news pretty well, and outperformed most of the noteworthy 
insurance stocks.  The strategy for new entries remains the same:  
Traders can target an intraday move above $70, while those with a 
more conservative approach can wait for a close above that level.  
In late-breaking news, HIG announced that its Board of Directors 
had declared a quarterly dividend of 26 cents/share, payable on 
July 1st to stockholders of record on June 3rd.  HIG releases Q1 
earnings on Monday.  
   
Picked on March 13th at $65.74
Gain since picked:       +3.55
Earnings Date         04/22/02 (confirmed)
 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cablevision - CVC - close: 28.23 change: -0.22 stop: *text*

Shares of CVC appear to have run straight into resistance at the 
$29.00 level as it has been unable to trade above it for the last 
three days.  Currently, we are untriggered on this short play and 
continue to wait for CVC to trade at $26.24 or lower.  We have 
considered moving our trigger higher, especially if CVC rolled 
over at $30, but this may not occur.  More aggressive bears could 
consider potential short plays if CVC trades under $28.00 but 
given the shape of the MACD we are growing a bit more cautious 
and thus prefer to see some confirmation to the downside.

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain  since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date        05/14/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------
  Closed Bullish
  --------------

Southwest Airlines - LUV - cls: 18.55 chg: -0.45 stop: 18.29

We knew LUV might be volatile following this morning's earnings 
announcement, but events in Europe had the stock moving faster 
than we expected.  LUV sold off rapidly on news that a small 
plane crashed into a Milan skyscraper.  Shares dropped as far as 
$18.04 before it became apparent that the crash was an accident.  
Our stop at $18.29 was also violated, which closed this play for 
a 3.4 percent loss.  As far the actual earnings announcement, LUV 
reported a Q1 profit of $.03/share.  The stock was trading 
slightly lower in morning trading before the news hit.  LUV will 
likely be the only major airline to report a profit this quarter, 
but it appears that fundamental strength may already be priced 
into the stock.

Picked on April 4th at $18.94
Gain since picked:      -0.65
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (confirmed)
 




==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

Maxwell Shoe Sizes Up 3-for-2 Split

Maxwell Shoe Co. Inc. (NASDAQ: MAXS) announced today that its 
Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock split of the Class 
A common stock.

The split will come in the form of one additional share of common 
stock for every two shares held, with fractional shares payable in 
cash. Shareholders of record as of May 3, 2002 will be entitled to 
the extra shares on the May 17th payable date.

MAXS has not split since it began trading in 1994.  The stock has 
put on quite a show in recent sessions and has risen almost 25% 
since April 5th, 2002.

Shares closed at $19.43 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=MAXS


About the company
Maxwell Shoe Company Inc. designs, develops and markets casual and 
dress footwear for women and children. The Company's brands 
include ANNE KLEIN 2®, DOCKERS® FOOTWEAR FOR WOMEN, J. G. HOOK, 
JOAN AND DAVID, CIRCA JOAN & DAVID, MOOTSIES TOOTSIES AND SAM & 
LIBBY.  (source: company press release)

---

Union Planters sows a 3-for-2 stock split, announces dividend

Concurrent with today's Q1 earnings announcement, the Union 
Planters Corp. (NYSE: UPC) Board of Directors also declared a 3-
for-2 stock split.  The split will come in the form of a 50% stock 
dividend, and will be payable on June 6, 2002 to stockholders of 
record as of May 22. 

The board also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $.50/share on 
UPC Common Stock and on UPC 8% Series E Preferred Stock, to be 
payable on May 15, 2002 to stockholders of record as of May 1, 
2002.

This will mark the first time since 1989 that the stock has split.  
YTD, shares are higher by 10.2%, reflecting similar strength in 
the banking sector.

UPC closed at $49.76 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=UPC


About the company
Founded in 1869, Union Planters is one of the 30 largest bank 
holding companies with $33 billion in total assets, providing 
banking, mortgage, investment and insurance services to over two 
million individuals and businesses. Based in Memphis, Tennessee, 
Union Planters has 764 banking offices located in 12 states.
(source: company press release)

---


Wilmington Trust announces 2-for-1 stock split and boosts dividend

A bevy of news came out of today's Wilmington Trust Corp. (NYSE: 
WL) annual meeting.  In addition to earnings, the company 
announced a 2-for-1 stock split.  The split will take the form of 
a 100% stock dividend, to be payable on June 17, 2002 for 
shareholders of record on June 3, 2002.  This marks the first 
split since 1992.

The Board of Directors also raised the cash dividend 6.25%, from 
48 cents/share to 51 cents/share.  The dividend is payable on May 
15, 2002 to shareholders of record on May 1, 2002.   

Furthermore, The Board also approved a new 4-million-share stock 
buyback program, which will begin when the current plan is 
completed.

The stock closed at $68.60 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=WL


About the company
Wilmington Trust Corporation is a financial services holding 
company that provides wealth management and specialty corporate 
trust services to clients throughout the U.S. and in more than 50 
other countries, and commercial banking services throughout the 
Delaware Valley region. (source: company press release)




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MRK     Merck & Co                 56.57     +1.52
SO      The Southern Company       27.75     +0.77
UB      Unionbancal Corp           46.55     +1.27
NBR     Nabors Industries Inc      44.40     +1.19
RJR     RJ Reynolds Tobacco Hldgs  67.60     +0.62
VLO     Valero Energy Corp         48.61     +1.06

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ISIS    Isis Pharmaceuticals       18.00     +1.31
IFNY    Infinity Inc               18.10     +1.01
HTEI    H.T.E. Inc                  6.66     +1.14
TBAC    Tandy Brands Accessories   10.85     +0.90
DYII    Dynacq Intl. Inc           16.63     +0.68

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ATH     Anthem Inc                 68.25     +3.60
GAS     Nicor Inc                  48.10     +0.61
CMO     Capstead Mortgage Corp     22.35     +1.65
AEOS    American Eagle Outfitter   26.10     +1.34
UNH     UnitedHealth Group Inc     84.26     +4.69
WLP     Wellpoint Health Network   70.08     +2.38
TGH     Trigon Healthcare Inc      79.20     +2.43
CAM     Cooper Cameron Corp        54.56     +1.71
OCR     Omnicare Inc               28.30     +1.17
MME     Mid-Atlantic Medical Srvc  32.20     +2.04
LIN     Linens 'n Things Inc       35.10     +1.36

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UTX     United Technologies        67.25     -2.55
CL      Colgate-Palmolive          53.95     -3.80
BA      Boeing Co                  43.70     -1.67
NKE     Nike Inc                   55.40     -2.00
FRX     Forest Labs                75.00     -1.17
SEIC    SEI Investments Company    36.74     -2.29
DV      Devry Inc                  25.52     -5.48
BGG     Briggs & Stratton Corp     40.76     -5.02

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AVP     Avon Products Inc          54.45     -1.31
HON     Honeywell Intl             38.30     -2.16
BLL     Ball Corp                  48.24     -1.21
TBL     Timberland Co              41.74     -3.22




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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
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subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.






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