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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 04/30/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 04-30-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      I'll call it like I see it
Market Sentiment: Renewed Confidence?
Play-of-the-Day:  Playing the tech bounce


-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------        
      04-30-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9946.22 +126.35 10006.28  9818.90 1.54 bln   2214/ 942
NASDAQ   1688.23 + 31.30  1697.03  1652.93 1.86 bln   2248/1312
S&P 100   532.40 +  5.56   536.02   525.93   Totals   4462/2254
S&P 500  1076.92 + 11.47  1082.51  1063.52
RUS 2000  510.67 + 10.13   510.68   500.09
DJ TRANS 2704.72 +  9.88  2718.55  2683.84
VIX        23.78 -  2.33    26.64    23.49
VXN        42.86 -  2.26    45.59    42.70
TRIN        0.74
PUT/CALL    0.80

-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

I'll call it like I see it

While today's rally for stocks was nice, I'm hesitant to say that 
stocks have found a definitive bottom.  I try and view the market 
as unbiased as I can, but when I look across the board, all that 
impresses me from today's "rally" was the action in the 
Forest/Paper Products Sector ($FPP.X) and perhaps the deeper 
cyclicals as a whole.

April was a rough month for the bulls.  The broader New York 
Composite ($NYA.X) fell 4.3% for the month, and it could have 
been worse if not for today's 1% recovery.  Another broader 
market index had the NASDAQ-Composite ($COMPX) suffering a 8.5% 
decline and today's 1.8% recovery seems rather miniscule 
considering this month's decline.  The S&P 500 (SPX.X), what most 
participants refer to as "the market" fell 6.3% in April.  
Larger-cap technology as depicted by the NASDAQ-100 ($NDX.X) fell 
a staggering 12.1% during the month.

Hey, its only one day right?  We can't expect the broader market 
averages to recoup all that they lost over April.

Today's biggest sector gainer had the Biotech Index (BTK.X) 
finishing up 3.98% at 436.  For the month of April, this sector 
got hit rather hard with a 12.8% decline, but not nearly as hard 
as the GSTI Software Index (GSO.X), which lost 20% for the month 
or the Combined Telecom Index (IXTCX), which fell 19.7% for the 
month.  Today's 2.5% gain in the GSO.X and 2.3% gain in the IXTCX 
didn't look like bulls were eager to look for bottoms, but more 
like some shorts locking in some gains from April's shower of 
good fortune.

Shares of software maker Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ:ORCL) $10.04 
-3.7% trader weak today and closed at a new 52-week low.  The 
stock was under pressure most of the session after senior vice 
president of Oracle product industries and Latin America sales, 
Sebastian Gunningham, decided to leave the company to take a 
position with a small software company based in Miami.

Hey, its only one day right?  We can't expect the broader market 
averages to recoup all that they lost over April.

Nope, but the rally that impressed me most today was that found 
in the Forest/Paper Products Index (FPP.X) and 2.99% gain.  That 
was less than the 3.98% gain in the biotechs, but when one 
considers that the FPP.X fell just 2.2% in April, today's gains 
erased about 1/2 of April's losses and hints to me that this 
sector lacks aggressive sellers found in other sectors that could 
squash a more prolonged rally.

Forest/Paper Stocks - Today's volume and price action



The above list of stocks are names that might be categorized as 
"forest/paper" stocks.  Those with a (FPP) next to the stock's 
symbol are components of the Forest/Paper Index ($FPP.X).  On the 
far right of the chart, I've simply placed two prices.  The 
number on the left would be a price level where a point and 
figure "sell signal" would take place and invalidate the current 
bullish count.  The price on the right is the current bullish 
vertical count.

Those stocks currently trading below a bearish resistance trend 
from the point and figure chart are marked "Below Trend."  Today 
I'm noting that both TIMBZ and CRO traded against the sector and 
both also trade below trend.  

What a trader investor can do with the above data is begin 
looking at stocks in the group that have favorable longer-term 
risk/reward ratios.  That is, the risk for a bull to a sell 
signal, measured against a longer-term price objective using the 
bullish vertical count technique.

I consider (as do many) the forest paper stocks as deeper 
cyclicals.  Currently, I'm not ready to place any large bets on 
the above names, but I want to note today's bullishness along 
with April's more bullish performance relative to the broader 
market averages.

Smurfit-Stone Container - $0.50 box



The above chart of Smurfit-Stone Container (NASDAQ:SSCC) $16.24 
+4.37% helps "explain" the risk/reward levels outlined.  A trade 
at $14, would be a "sell signal" (column of O exceeding a 
previous column of O) and also break the upward trend or bullish 
support.  

I do think that shares of SSCC have pulled back, due to broader 
market weakness and not necessarily due to "stock specific" 
reasons.  The stock has been strong relative to the market (S&P 
500), which hints the stock is still under accumulation longer-
term and perhaps lacks aggressive sellers.

Little change since Friday

One thing I noticed today when I was tabulating the broader 
market and index performances for April was that the NYSE 
Composite ($NYA.X), S&P 500 Index ($SPX.X), S&P 100 Index 
($OEX.X) and Russell 2000 ($RUT.X) closed at exactly the same 
levels as Friday!

The Dow Industrials ($INDU) are 36 points higher than Friday's 
close, the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) is up a whopping 5 points and 
the NASDAQ-100 ($NDX.X) is up just over 27 points.

To take today's action and build the scenario that a bottom is in 
place and valuations are now cheap, would be a leap of faith for 
me.  A trader looking to trade many technology stocks long must 
carefully try and ascertain what stocks are most likely to have 
bears covering and risk/reward then becomes the ultimate 
determination for such analysis.

I'm willing to take the risk and ride the tails of the bear!

Traders that have perhaps built some gains in their account by 
shorting some stocks this past month, may now be seeing some 
trades they currently have on (on the bearish side) have been 
firming a bit.

This type of observation will have some aggressive traders 
turning into short-term bulls and looking to play the short-term 
demand shifts that can take place under a short-covering rally 
type of market environment.

One stock I came across today was in the biotechnology space.  
Shares of ImClone Systems (NASDAQ:IMCL) $16.10 +7.3% have 
probably had enough bad news to choke a horse.  All I'm noting 
today is that the stock hasn't fallen below it's February 8th low 
of $13.77, despite all the bad news.

ImClone Systems Chart - Daily Interval



I would not encourage any subscriber to try and "build your 
account" off of a bullish trade in ImClone (IMCL) but volume has 
been rather light the past three sessions and considering the 
drubbing the market took yesterday (Monday) the stock didn't 
break to new lows.  An aggressive, yet disciplined bull looking 
to ride the coattails of a potential short-covering rally might 
find an action point on the break above the $16.87 level of 
retracement.  The trader would go in with the very short-term 
view and look for a "pop" to the $19.90 level and exit BEFORE the 
downward trend or $19.97 retracement level is encountered.  Any 
break below today's low of $14.72 or the 52-week low of $13.77 
must be honored with a stop.  

Again... if you're a bull and looking to buy the bottoms, you'd 
better be disciplined.  With action points, stops and targets.

More economic data!

Tomorrow's economic data has the ISM coming out during market 
hours at 10:00 AM.  Economists are looking for a reading of 
55.0%.  Also due out at 10:00 is construction spending (consensus 
for a gain of 0.1%) and Domestic Vehicle Sales (consensus of 13.3 
million).

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

Renewed Confidence?
By Eric Utley

The market felt like it wanted to rally even before the release
of consumer confidence.  Maybe the buyers were ready to do just
that: Buy!  Of course the end of the month may have played a
role in Tuesday's rally.  Those crazy fund managers like to do
crazy things at the end of the month to try to make their
portfolios look better than they actually are.

In fact, a lot of late last week's and yesterday's weakness
may have been attributable to end of the month selling of
major positions by the funds.  That selling appeared to have
run its course this morning.  I was watching Qwest Communications
(NYSE:Q) all day out of curiosity more than anything.  It
traded below $4.50 this morning on what appeared to be further
heavy liquidation.  Then that selling stopped and the stock
rebounded for about $1 before settling in for the day.
Multiple the action in Q a couple of hundred times, and maybe
the consumer confidence number really didn't have anything to
do with the rally.

Despite the strong confidence number, however, Treasuries
finished slightly higher.  The benchmark 10-year yield (TNX.X)
finished at 5.091%.  You'd think that bond traders would be a
bit more nervous if the consumer confidence number actually
meant anything to the economy, wouldn't you?

The most interesting, in my opinion, and maybe even the most
telling indicator of this market is the CBOE Market Volatility
Index (VIX.X).  Once again, the VIX (read: fear) imploded
during Tuesday's rally.  The VIX dropped by nearly 9 percent
on the 1.05 percent pop in the S&P 100 (OEX.X).  The lack of
skepticism in the face of rallies shows the crowd's willingness
to buy into the attempt.  That's not the stuff that bottoms
are built on.  Complacency remains a problem, which is why
any rally from here should not hold.  Sure, we could see the
market move higher for a week or so with as oversold as stocks
have become.  But it will be a trading rally and nothing more
until we see a wall of worry built.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages


DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     :  9946

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10065
 50-dma: 10273
200-dma:  9929

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1077

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1099
 50-dma: 1127
200-dma: 1129


Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1277

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1324
 50-dma: 1412
200-dma: 1491


Biotech ($OSX)

The BTK was the day's best performing sector with its 3.98
percent pop.  But the index is hovering just above its yearly
lows, which tells me that Tuesday's strength was primarily a
product of short covering.

The best performing shares in the group included Millennium
Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:MLNM), OSI Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:OSIP),
Protein Design Labs (NASDAQ:PDLI), ImClone (NASDAQ:IMCL),
Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), and Enzon (NASDAQ:ENZN).

52-week High: 676
52-week Low : 411
Current     : 436

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 457
 50-dma: 488
200-dma: 519


Gold and Silver ($XAU)

The XAU measurably fell for the second consecutive session on
what appeared to be sector rotation.  Spot prices fell back
after running up past the $310 per ounce level.  The XAU was
Tuesday's worst performing sector with its 3.78 percent plunge.

Leading to the downside included shares of Harmony Gold
(NASDAQ:HGMCY), Placer Dome (NYSE:PDG), American Eagle Mines
(NYSE:AEM), Gold Fields (NASDAQ:GOLD), and Newmont Mining
(NYSE:NEM).

52-week High: 74
52-week Low : 78
Current     : 49

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 74
 50-dma: 68
200-dma: 59

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

Pretty amazing!  The VIX traded right up to its simple 200-dma
yesterday and again today before plunging back to earth.  While
I find the rally in the VIX promising as it relates to finding
a bottom in stocks, I can't get past the fact that each time
stocks even hint at a run complacency returns to the VIX in a
big way.  Selling rallies will continue working so long as we
observe the lack of stick in the VIX.

The VXN is showing a little bit more fear, which may mean that
we're closer to a bottom in tech related shares than the S&P
100 types of stocks.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 23.78 -2.33
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 42.88 -2.24

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.80        578,779       462,089
Equity Only    0.69        500,810       319,460
OEX            0.88         16,195        14,254
QQQ            1.57         36,828        57,916
 
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          63      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    28      + 0     Bear Confirmed
DOW           53      + 0     Bear Alert
S&P 500       62      - 1     Bear Alert
S&P 100       57      + 1     Bear Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.48
10-Day Arms Index  1.41
21-Day Arms Index  1.45
55-Day Arms Index  1.24

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      2214            942
NASDAQ    2248           1312

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      161             69
NASDAQ    195            108

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,312
NASDAQ   1,959

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 04/16/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

The spread between S&P commercials and small traders narrowed
during the most recent reporting period.  Commercials added a
few more longs than shorts, resulting in a small reduction in the
group's net bearish position.  Meanwhile, small traders added
quite a few short positions, coming off of the group's yearly
high in bullishness.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
04/02/02      313,294   406,337   (93,403)  (13.0%)
04/09/02      320,101   411,075   (90,974)  (12.4%)
04/16/02      322,578   411,245   (88,667)  (12.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/02/02      149,449     43,139  106,310     55.2%
04/09/02      151,237     47,678  103,559     52.1%
04/16/02      150,529     50,424  100,105     49.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials grew less bearish during the most recent
reporting period.  The group added a number of long positions,
while maintaining last week's short position.  Net, however, the
group is still bearish.  Small traders went in the opposite
direction by adding more shorts than longs, for a decrease in
the group's net bullish position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
04/02/02       26,211     31,840    (5,629)   (9.7%)
04/09/02       28,985     35,221    (6,236)   (9.7%)
04/16/02       32,024     35,723    (3,699)   (5.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   7,774  - 12/21/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
04/02/02       10,615     7,769     2,846     15.5%
04/09/02       11,640     8,353     3,287     16.4%
04/16/02       12,458    10,572     1,878      8.2% 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow commercials grew less bullish during the most recent reporting
period by reducing their number of longs and increasing their
number of shorts.  The group's net bullish position dropped by
about 1,100 contracts.  Small traders added slightly more longs
than shorts for a reduction in the group's net bearish position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/02/02       18,717    12,549    6,168     19.7%
04/09/02       19,393    13,445    5,948     16.7%
04/16/02       19,080    14,267    4,813     14.4% 

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
04/02/02        5,192     9,007    (3,815)   (26.9%)
04/09/02        5,459     9,340    (3,881)   (26.2%)
04/16/02        5,644     9,448    (3,804)   (25.2%) 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------


===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((BULLISH play))
===============

Titan Corp - TTN - close: 22.86 change: +0.69 stop: 20.99

Company Description:
Headquartered in San Diego, The Titan Corporation creates, builds 
and launches technology-based businesses, offering innovative 
technical solutions. For more than 20 years, Titan has provided 
comprehensive information systems solutions and services to the 
Department of Defense and intelligence agencies. Today, three of 
Titan's four core businesses develop and deploy communications 
and information technology solutions and services for both 
government and commercial customers. (source: company press 
release)


- ORIGINAL WRITE UP: April 12th, 2002 -

Why We Like It:
These days it's a bit difficult to find a tech stock that's 
threatening to break to new near-term highs, but TTN fits the 
bill (that's near-term as in relative, not 52-week highs). Recent 
strength in the stock can be attributed to the fact that TTN 
provides services to both the commercial and defense sectors. A 
scan of news releases for the company shows four defense 
contracts have been awarded in the month of April; The most 
recent being a $103M IT contract from the Air Force that was 
announced today. This propelled shares of TTN higher by 5.6 
percent and set up what could be an attractive entry point. The 
stock closed right at the $21 resistance level, which has kept a 
lid on every attempted rally since early February. The 200-dma at 
$21.18 provides additional resistance. We think the recent flurry 
of contracts could power the stock above this level, but want to 
verify a breakout first. For this reason, we're going write this 
play with a trigger at $21.26. If TTN trades at or above this 
level, we'll go long with a stop at $19.74. This should prevent 
us from getting trapped in a reversal. P-n-f chartists may notice 
that the stock has bearish resistance at $22. This would be 
logically be the next level of resistance after the 200-dma, but 
we think the momentum created by the breakout above $21 will be 
enough to carry it though $22. Such a move would also create a 
double-top breakout on the p-n-f and put our profit target of 
$25.50 within reach (although expect resistance at $24). Be sure 
to monitor events in the Mid East, as a deterioration of the 
regional tensions (can it get much worse?) could spotlight the 
defense sector even more.

- Most Recent Update: April 30th, 2002 -

Shares of TTN were looking strong last Friday following a 
positive earnings report, but were dragged down by negative 
sentiment in the broader tech market.  Nonetheless, TTN finished 
the day with a gain, and we were looking for that relative 
strength to come into play if the NASDAQ rallied.  Sure enough, 
today's tech strength translated into some nice gains for TTN.  
Shares added over 3 percent on stronger than average volume and 
closed within striking distance of the near-term high at $23.20.  
If the oscillators are any indication, bulls will soon push the 
stock above this level:  Both the MACD and daily stochastics are 
beginning to curl higher with ample room to move.  Aggressive 
short-term traders could target a move over $23.20, but look out 
for possible resistance to emerge near $24.

- Play-of-the-Day Comments: April 30th, 2002 -

A plummeting NASDAQ erased Friday's post-earnings rally in TTN.  
When short-covering finally hit the tech sector today, the stock 
outperformed with a 3.1 percent gain.  We think a continuation of 
today's NASDAQ rally could push TTN above it's Friday high of 
$23.20.  This would help to confirm a move over bearish p-n-f
resistance at $23.

Picked on April 15th at $21.26
Change since picked:     +1.60 
Earnings Date         04/25/02 (confirmed)
 




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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 04-30-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/d30b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls     
  Bullish Play Updates:  SNE, TTN
  Bearish Play Updates:  BRCM, CA, DPMI, KRON, SRNA

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  CTEC, SII
  Bearish Play Updates:  JPM, MER, GDT, V

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  AMAT, GNCMA
  Closed Bearish Play:   CVC

Split Trader
  Stock Splits
                         AWR:  3-for-2 split announcement
                         SLFI: 5-for-4 split announcement

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Sony Corp (ADR) - SNE - close: 54.20 change: -1.28 stop: 51.25

Although the Nikkei index put in a strong performance on Tuesday, 
SNE gapped down over a point to start today's session.  Weighing 
on the stock were concerns that large Japanese exporters would 
suffer from the rising yen, which is at a near-term high versus 
the dollar.  Shares bounced from $53.50 and trended higher for 
the rest of the session.  Today's 2.3 percent may prove to be a 
buying opportunity if those export worries quickly blow over.  Of 
course there is always the possibility that investors merely 
overreacted to news that SNE was taking a one percent stake in 
RNWK as part of an alliance to distribute digital media.  
Technically, and on an hourly chart, we noticed that SNE is 
currently sitting above an ascending trendline.  We're 
anticipating that continued Nikkei strength will fuel a rise from 
this level.  

Picked on April 4th at $53.01
Gain since picked:      +1.19
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

Titan Corp - TTN - close: 22.86 change: +0.69 stop: 20.99

Shares of TTN were looking strong last Friday following a 
positive earnings report, but were dragged down by negative 
sentiment in the broader tech market.  Nonetheless, TTN finished 
the day with a gain, and we were looking for that relative 
strength to come into play if the NASDAQ rallied.  Sure enough, 
today's tech strength translated into some nice gains for TTN.  
Shares added over 3 percent on stronger than average volume and 
closed within striking distance of the near-term high at $23.20.  
If the oscillators are any indication, bulls will soon push the 
stock above this level:  Both the MACD and daily stochastics are 
beginning to curl higher with ample room to move.  Aggressive 
short-term traders could target a move over $23.20, but look out 
for possible resistance to emerge near $24.

Picked on April 15th at $21.26
Change since picked:     +1.60 
Earnings Date         04/25/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Broadcom Corp - BRCM - close: 34.50 change: +1.65 stop: 36.76

Hmmm... bears should probably start to get cautious on BRCM as 
the stock really out performed the index today in the market's 
rally today.  While the SOX traded up to its 200-dma and rolled 
over again, shares of BRCM added five percent and tried to 
maintain the majority of its gains before the close.  Longer-
term, chart readers can see the trend developing in shares of 
BRCM.  Draw a trendline from the top in January 02 across the top 
in March and extended it forward and you'll see it connect with 
the top in mid-April.  There is a similar trend line across the 
bottom of BRCM from the February 02 low to the early and late 
April lows although this trajectory is a lot milder.  
Essentially, if the sector (SOX) does not breakdown under support 
at 500, then BRCM may be left to stew in its own juices and that 
pot looks like a continuing consolidation between these two 
trendlines until we get the eventual breakout one way or the 
other.  Currently, our stop at $36.76 is inside this triangular 
formation and we will be stopped out if BRCM trades up to the top 
of the trendline before rolling over again.  More aggressive 
traders can alter their strategy as they see fit.  We did not 
hear anything positive or negative from BRCM's CEO speech at the 
technology conference on Monday and are left to speculate if 
there was anything said that could have had an affect on the 
stock price today.  More conservative traders could use the $36 
level to place their stops but if the market continues its 
rebound tomorrow then you're almost guaranteed to be closed out 
of the trade.

Picked on April 24th at $34.84 
Gain since picked:       +0.34
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (confirmed)




---

Computer Assoc. - CA - close: 18.60 change: +0.90 stop: 19.05

The overall bearish trend for CA still looks intact but the 
rebound in the Nasdaq and the software sector today was enough to 
fuel a five percent gain in CA.  More aggressive traders willing 
to take the heat can use the declining 50-dma as a guide for stop 
placement $19.31 or even use the natural $20 level as a guide.  
We are going to keep our stop at the $19.05 trigger and fully 
expect to be stopped out if the Nasdaq continues to rebound 
tomorrow.  We were almost stopped out today as the stock rallied 
to $18.94 before stepping back into the closing bell.  This is a 
real judgement call for traders.  We don't expect the rally to 
last but then the market is known for fooling everyone and doing 
the unexpected.  The temptation would be to widen your stops and 
keep the play alive with the anticipation that the stock will 
roll over again with the markets.  However, the disciplined thing 
to do is honor your stops, wherever you have them set and follow 
your game plan.  If shares rally up to $20 and begin to roll over 
again then we can consider new bearish positions.

Picked on April 18th at $18.49 
Gain since picked:       +0.49
Earnings Date         05/14/02 (unconfirmed)




--- 

DuPont Photomasks - DPMI - close: 38.98 change: +1.89 stop: 40.01

Shares of DuPont Photomasks have been in a relative free fall for 
the last several sessions with a slight pause at the 200-dma.  
With the stock moving our direction we lowered our stop to the 
$40.01 level on Monday night to reduce our exposure given the 
expectation that the SOX and the Nasdaq were going to produce an 
oversold rally.  The oversold rally did materialize and the SOX 
rallied up to its 200-dma before beginning to roll over again.  
The challenge now is trying to forecast how to play DPMI without 
knowing if the Nasdaq and the tech sectors will be able to keep 
the rally alive for another day.  Shares of DPMI did gain almost 
five percent today, which out performed the SOX, but they closed 
at the $39 level.  Our biggest concern is that DPMI might rally 
tomorrow, stop us out at $40.01, and then fail again at the 200-
dma like the index.  Since we do not believe in widening a stop 
once it has been tightened we'll have to live with that decision.  
Those traders who are aggressive enough to take the risk might 
want to consider placing their stop just north of the 200-dma 
(41.34) on DPMI.  In the news, DPMI announced that it will be 
presenting at the Merrill Lynch Hardware Heaven conference in San 
Francisco on May 2nd, 2002 at 11:15 a.m. PST.  

Picked on April 26th at $39.47
Gain since picked:       +0.49
Earnings Date         04/24/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Kronos Inc. - KRON - close: 40.59 change: +0.78 stop: *text*

We remain untriggered in this bearish play on KRON and for good 
reason.  Buyers have been exceptionally resilient in defending 
KRON at the $39 level for the last several sessions.  The rally 
today in the Nasdaq and software group has fueled a move back 
over the $40 mark for KRON and currently shares are staring at 
the 200-dma.  We feel that if KRON closes above its 200-dma we'll 
drop the open-untriggered play and merely keep KRON on our 
internal watch list.  We would expect stronger overhead 
resistance at the $42.50 level should KRON find new strength.

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- see text 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/23/02 (confirmed)




--- 

SERENA Software - SRNA - cls: 13.65 chg: +0.44 stop: 14.01 *new*

We all know nothing goes down in a straight line, but in an 
effort to keep a tight control on our risk, we have been 
tightening our stops on a lot of winning and losing trades.  We 
are doing the same with SRNA even though a two or three day 
oversold rally is not something that would disrupt the current 
downtrend.  Our new stop will be $14.01 and odds are very high 
that if the Nasdaq continues to rebound tomorrow we will be 
stopped out.  Meanwhile, more aggressive traders who are willing 
to take the heat might want to consider placing their stops near 
the 10-dma at $14.77 or above price resistance at $15.00.  There 
hasn't been any change in the fundamentals for the software group 
and the rally is likely to be made up of short-covering or 
aggressive bulls trying to pick a bottom.  In the news, SRNA 
reported that they had appointed a new chairman of the board, 
replacing the company's founder.  Keep an eye on the GSO.X 
software index for an idea of investor interest in the group.

Picked on April 23rd at $14.94 
Gain since picked:       +1.29
Earnings Date         02/21/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cholestech - CTEC - close: 18.10 change: -1.23 stop: 17.98 *new*

D'oh!  We hate it when that happens.  CTEC opened the week with a 
trade at our trigger at $20.05, which triggered this long play 
with a stop at $17.49.  Shares proceeded to move back under the 
$20 level, which acted as resistance for the rest of the session.  
Today's trading was downright ugly, as CTEC faded the RXH.X 
healthcare index and lost 6.4 percent.  Due to the large decline, 
we're going to get defensive and move our stop up to $17.98.  We 
expect this level to be violated tomorrow, but shares will first 
have to trade under possible support at $18.  We could not 
uncover any news or reason for the sharp decline.

Picked on April 29th at 20.05
Gain since picked:      -1.95
Earnings Date        04/24/02 


 

--- 

Smith Intl. Inc - SII - close: 70.05 change: -0.61 stop: 65.49

Shares of SII spent the last two sessions consolidating some of 
last week's move higher.  The stock briefly dipped under previous 
resistance at $70 today, but bounced back to close over that 
level.  Today's 0.86 percent decline mirrored a similar move in 
the OSX.X oil service index, which shed 0.81 percent.  Driving 
the group lower was a decrease in the price of oil (cl02m).  
Technically, we like how the $70 level has held, and aggressive 
traders may want to consider an entry on a bounce from this 
level.  Those looking for bullish confirmation could wait for a 
move above the near-term high of $71.68.

Picked on April 26th at $71.29 
Gain since picked:       -1.24
Earnings Date         05/02/02 (confirmed)






  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

J.P. Morgan - JPM - close: 35.10 change: +0.76 stop: 38.01

Monday's test of the 50-dma (currently at $34.10) proved to be a 
short-term bottom for shares of JPM.  Today's 126-point gain on 
the Dow Jones helped to push JPM to a 2.2 percent gain.  Although 
shares finished solidly in the green, today's action was somewhat 
encouraging for the bears.  A failed intraday test of the $36 
level led to a steady decline in late-afternoon trading.  This 
leads us to believe that the move higher may have a temporary 
short-covering event.  Relatively low-risk entries can be 
considered at current levels, so long as your stop is nestled 
just above $36.  More patient traders may want to wait for a 
break below the near-term low at $34.00, but note that JPM may 
find support at the April low of $33.10.  We are happy to report 
that the recent trading finally caused the rollover we had been 
anticipating on the PnF chart to appear.  

Picked on April 24th at $35.40
Gain since picked:       +0.30
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Merrill Lynch - MER - close: 41.94 change: -0.17 stop: 46.06

Today's fractional loss in MER is rather conspicuous when one 
considers that the Dow Jones was up by 1.2 percent today.  Shares 
briefly traded above $43 during the lunch hour, but hungry bears 
gnawed on the stock for the remainder of the session.  
Yesterday's trading was also promising, as MER sold off sharply 
after filling in the April 25th gap.  New entries can be 
evaluated on another rollover from $43 or a move under the near-
term low of $41.30.  A move under this level could lead to a test 
of psychological support at $40.  Readers doing some research on 
this stock probably noticed that MER received an upgrade from a 
hold to a buy this morning but shares failed to react to it, 
which further demonstrates the grip bears probably have on the 
stock.  Short-term traders probably want to consider taking 
profits if MER slips toward the $40 mark.

Picked on April 24th at $43.72
Gain since picked:       +1.78
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

Guidant Corp - GDT - close: 37.60 change: unch stop: *text*

Judging by the way GDT failed to participate in today's broader 
market rally, it may just be a matter of time before this play is 
triggered.  The stock has attracted little in the way of buying 
interest over the past two sessions.  Shares continued to falter 
at the $38 level, which acted as solid resistance on Friday.  It 
was also interesting to see that GDT couldn't trade higher even 
though the RXH.X healthcare index tacked on 2 percent.  If this 
trend of relative weakness continues we'd expect GDT to fall 
under our trigger price of $36.94.  If/when this happens, our 
initial stop will be set at $40.01.

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (confirmed)




---

Vivendi Universal - V - close: 32.12 change: -0.37 stop: 36.01

V hit a 52-week low after gapping lower this morning.  Pressuring 
the stock was news that the company had absorbed a 17 billion 
euro write-down charge for Q1, as well as continued concerns over 
a share buyback program.  Shares moved higher with the market as 
the session progressed but ran into a literal wall of resistance 
at $32.20.  Today's relative weakness is promising, and 
aggressive traders could consider new short positions if shares 
rollover from current levels.  However, be advised that we expect 
the bulls to attempt a defense of the $30 level.  Not only is 
this level psychological support, but it also roughly coincides 
with the midline of V's descending regression channel.  We think 
the stock could eventually fall as far as $25, but cautious 
traders may want to lock in gains if shares bounce from $30.  We 
wouldn't be surprised to see V rebound up towards the $33 level 
if the broader markets continue to show strength tomorrow.

Picked on April 24th at $33.35
Gain since picked:       +1.13
Earnings Date         04/24/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Applied Materials - AMAT - close: 24.32 change: +0.38 stop: *text*

We watched our screens closely on Monday, waiting for AMAT to 
enter our trigger range between $22.99-$22.00.  Shares came close 
to that level in afternoon trading, but bottomed out at $23.37.  
AMAT moved higher in today's trading as tech stocks put in a 
strong performance.  Frankly, this rally smacks of short-covering 
and revealed little in the way of bullish conviction.  The SOX 
topped out at its 200-dma and trended lower for the rest of the 
session.  Large buyers may want to see a retest of the 500 
support level before committing capital.  AMAT traded in a 
similar fashion and sold off after failing to move of the 50-dma.  
If semiconductors continue to move lower tomorrow we may see the 
stock once again approach our trigger.  If this occurs when the 
SOX is hovering above 500, cautious traders may want to wait for 
the index to bounce from that level before going long.

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00 
Earnings Date        05/14/02 (confirmed)
 



---

General Communication - GNCMA - cls: 9.98 chg: +0.19 stop: *text*

Today's NASDAQ rally helped boost GNCMA nearly 2 percent, but the 
stock was unable to move over resistance at $10.  This continued 
a trend of lower highs that began on April 16th.  On a more 
bullish note, shares managed a nice bounce from support at $9.50.  
In any case, we'll continue to wait for GNCMA to trip our trigger 
at $10.31.  This means that the stock must break both the 
aforementioned trend and the 200-dma at $10.13 before we go long.  
If we do get triggered, our stop will be set at $9.39.  We did 
find it interesting that news of WCOM liquidating 40 percent of 
its stake in GNCMA earlier this month did not have a negative 
affect on the stock price.  The new story said that WCOM sold 
more than 2.5M shares of GNCMA over a two-day period on April 
10th and 11th at $9.00 a piece.  Chart observers will notice the 
huge spike in volume those two days.  Even more interesting was 
that GNCMA rallied the next three days after the sale.

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earings Date         04/24/02 (confirmed)





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  -------------------
  Closed Bearish Play
  -------------------

Cablevision - CVC - close: 23.50 change: +1.03 stop: 23.51

Today's rebound in the NASDAQ and Dow Jones helped CVC recoup 
some of its recent losses with a 4.5 percent gain.  Although 
shares closed a cent below our stop at $25.51, a brief intraday 
move over that level closed out this play for a gain of 10.4 
percent.  Given the fact that CVC bounced from the bottom of its 
descending channel at $22, we wouldn't advise short positions at 
this time.  However, the downtrend is still firmly intact and a 
rollover from the channel's midline near $26 would pique our 
interest.

Picked on April 22nd at $26.24
Gain since picked:       +2.73
Earnings Date         05/02/02 (confirmed)
 





==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

American States Water makes a splash with 3-for-2 split

American States Water Co. (NYSE: AWR) announced this morning that 
its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock split.

The split will be payable on June 7, 2002 to stockholders of 
record on May 15, 2002.  The Board also declared a quarterly 
dividend of $0.325/share, to be payable on June 1, 2002 to 
stockholders of record on May 8, 2002.

AWR has not split since it began trading in 1998.  The company 
announces its Q2 earnings report before the bell on May 7, 2002.

Shares closed at $39.26 on Monday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=AWR


About the company
American States Water Company is a holding company that, through 
its subsidiaries, provides water service to 1 out of 30 
Californians located within 75 communities throughout 10 counties 
in Northern, Coastal and Southern California and to approximately 
11,000 customers in the city of Fountain Hills, Arizona and 
portions of Scottsdale, Arizona. (source: company press release)

--- 

Sterling Financial declares 5-for-4 stock split

Sterling Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: SLFI) announced a 5-for-4 stock 
split on Tuesday morning after the markets opened.

The split will take the form of a 25% stock dividend and will be 
payable on June 3, 2002 to stockholders of record on May 15, 2002.

SLFI most recently split in 1999, also a 5-for-4 offering.  Shares 
are approaching 52-weeks highs and have gained 4.4%, YTD.

The stock closed at $25.07 on Monday. For a current quote, click 
here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=SLFI

About the company
Sterling Financial Corporation is a multi-bank holding company 
that consists of a family of financial services organizations, 
which includes Town & Country Leasing, Inc., Lancaster Insurance 
Group, LLC, and Equipment Finance, Inc. (source: company press 
release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


04/30/02  ================== Trading Ideas ================== 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

PEG     Public Service Enterprises 46.35     +0.54
DHI     D.R. Horton Inc            25.80     +0.67
SFI     Istar Financial Inc        31.10     +0.80
SFG     Stancorp Financial         58.50     +1.77
CBCF    Citizens Banking Corp      33.20     +0.60
UBSI    United Bankshares Inc      32.00     +1.10

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

TSN     Tyson Foods Inc            14.02     +1.02
CBZ     Cobalt Group               19.30     +1.95
ALLY    Alliance Gaming Corp       14.88     +1.26
WTS     Watts Industries Inc       18.21     +1.16
CAO     CSK Auto Corp              15.25     +1.11
SIE     Sierra Health Services     19.50     +3.50

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UN      Unilever N.V.              64.70     +2.34
RTN     Raytheon Co                42.30     +2.24
NOC     Northrop Grumman Corp     120.66     +4.67
RIG     Transocean Sedco Forex     35.50     +1.40
FTN     First Tennessee Natl. Corp 38.66     +1.19
STZ     Constellation Brands Inc   60.40     +2.65

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AZN     Astrazeneca                46.55     -1.53
LLY     Eli Lilly & Co             66.05     -2.25
SGP     Schering Plough            27.30     -1.11
MU      Micron Technology          23.70     -2.75
FDX     Fedex Corp                 51.67     -2.14
VLO     Valero Energy Corp         43.16     -2.14

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

NE      Noble Drilling Corp        43.35     -1.74
AMGP    Amerigroup                 30.55     -2.65
JJSF    J&J Snack Foods Corp       38.52     -1.98
SNE     Sony Corp                  54.20     -1.28
NEM     Newmont Mining Corp        28.51     -1.33
PLFE    Presidential Life Corp     24.90     -0.73




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