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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 05/02/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                          05-02-2002
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Factory orders up 0.4%, slightly better than expected
Play-of-the-Day:  Looking for a bounce
Market Sentiment: A Tale of Two Markets

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
        05-02-2002        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10091.90 + 32.30 10117.50 10040.10 1363 mln   1831/1291
NASDAQ   1644.90 - 32.71  1695.07  1640.80 1849 mln   1705/1783
S&P 100   537.53 -  1.00   541.66   534.65   totals   3536/3074
S&P 500  1084.56 -  1.90  1091.42  1079.46
RUS 2000  513.37 +  2.54   514.17   509.80
DJ TRANS 2749.51 +  5.85  2773.98  2736.55
VIX        22.38 +  0.18    22.99    22.10
VIXN       44.52 +  0.70    45.03    43.11
Put/Call Ratio      0.93
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Factory orders up 0.4%, slightly better than expected

Stocks showed some fairly significant divergence today, despite 
March factory orders that showed a 0.4% gain during the month of 
March, which was higher than economists' estimates of a 0.2% 
gain. 

Financials, paper products, home-builders and financials 
responded favorably, while broader technology traded lower.


DJ US Home Construction Index Chart - Daily Interval



Despite an overall March construction spending number released 
yesterday, which showed a decline of 0.9%, construction spending 
at the residential level was about flat, while commercial 
constructions spending fell.  That "bit of DIVERGENCE" is the 
spending numbers had the Dow Jones Home Construction Index 
(DJUSHB) managing a close at a 52-week high today.

Also helping the homebuilders today was Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) 
$65.75 +0.45%, saying the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 
6.78% for the week ending May 3, down from 6.88% a week ago.  The 
15-year loan took a similar tumble, 6.26% from 6.35%.

Are we there yet?

Some painful lessons are still being learned as even some of the 
"big names" of the NASDAQ continue to slide, and they're not 
declining on light volume either.

The top three most actively traded stocks in the entire market 
saw shares of Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ:SUNW) $6.45 -7.46%, 
WorldCom (NASDAQ:WCOM) $2.03 -8.14% and Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) 
$8.55 -9.52% trade new 52-week lows and put a damper on the 
NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X), which slid -3.3% to 1,225.

The NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) from stockcharts.com has 
tonight's reading at 25% and still in "bear confirmed" status.  
This is our main risk monitoring tool for understanding "market 
risk" as it relates to the NASDAQ-100.  Readings below 30% are 
considered "oversold" while readings above 70% are considered 
"overbought."  Traders that understand the tool are able to 
associate it with how institutions will manage risk in their 
inventories.

Here's a chart of the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) with retracement 
attached at the relative highs and relative lows that "defines a 
range"  I've added some inflection points from the bullish 
percent chart so that we can better understand that bears are now 
carrying the bulk of the risk and looking for some type of sharp 
capitulation from the bulls to lock in gains.

NASDAQ-100 Chart (NDX.X) - Daily Interval



It's interesting to note the "levels" of retracement that have 
really come into play on a rather consistent basis on the move 
higher from September to December, and then back down again.  
What's also interesting and rather staggering is how well the 
bullish percent chart has done its job at indicating "overbought" 
and "oversold" levels of risk.  Institutional market makers in 
the NASDAQ are usually buyers at oversold levels (below 30%) and 
sellers at overbought levels (above 70%).

While the bullish percent chart shows levels of bullishness with 
X's and O's (X is upward movement, O is downward movement) and 
keeps track of the passage of time with numbers or letters to 
mark the first of each month (8=Aug, 9=Sep, A=Oct, B=Nov, C=Dec, 
1=Jan, 2=Feb, 3=March, 4=April, 5=May) a trader can still compare 
a bar chart of the NASDAQ-100 with retracement and regression 
overlaid and compare it to the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % to better 
understand levels of bullishness and risk.

NASDAQ-100 Bullish % Chart ($BPNDX) - 2% box



At the end of today's session, only 25% (25 of the 100 stocks) of 
the stocks in the NASDAQ-100 are showing a point and figure buy 
signal on their point and figure charts.  Levels below 30% are 
considered "oversold" and helps a trader/investor understand 
"market risk" as it relates to the NASDAQ-100 universe of stocks 
being a "market."

A subscriber that will print out both charts and lay them side by 
side will begin to understand how an institutional trader may 
view "market risk" and control his/her inventory in stocks they 
make a market in.  Usually, a market maker finds plenty of 
sellers in more oversold conditions as "panic" can take hold.  It 
at times of "panic selling" that a market maker must step in and 
provide liquidity to the sellers (the market maker must buy when 
everyone else wants to sell).  Conversely, when the market gets 
more "overbought" the market maker usually if finding a lot of 
buyers in the market and must therefore turn into a seller, in 
order to provide liquidity for all the buyers.

How do market makers like Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers and the 
multitude of other market makers stay in business when the 
markets are going down?  One way is from the commissions per 
share that they charge, but if you're only making 3-5 cents a 
share during your market making activity, that won't come close 
to making up for a stock that has fallen 30% if you hold 
1,000,000 shares of the stock in your inventory.  No, the only 
reason they're still in business is because they buy low and sell 
high and know how to monitor "market risk."

It's now fairly evident that risk in the NASDAQ-100 was "high" 
for the bulls back in December (red C) and again in mid-March 
(after the red 3).

Tie it in with Applied Materials!

Today our bullish play list was triggered on a bullish trade in 
semiconductor equipment maker Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) 
$22.87 -6.27%.  As mentioned a couple of days ago, this bullish 
trade was not for the weak at heart.  It can be nerve-racking to 
buy a stock that has declined nearly 6% in a single session.

However, as long as the trader is disciplined, the trader may 
begin to understand what we are looking for.

Applied Materials (AMAT) is a component of the NASDAQ-100.  Of 
the 25 stocks still showing a "buy signal" on its point and 
figure chart, AMAT is one of those stocks.

After you have studied the NASDAQ-100 bullish % from above and 
the different "months" or time-periods on that chart, then there 
may actually be a reason we are looking to trade bullish this 
stock.

Applied Material Chart - $1 & $0.50 box



We've profiled a bullish trade in AMAT with a much tighter stop 
than where a point and figure sell signal would be generated if 
AMAT did trade the $20 level.  AMAT is one of the 25 stocks in 
the NASDAQ still showing a buy signal on its point and figure 
chart, as the stock "created" the buy signal when it traded $25 
back in early March (just after red 3).  

Do you see perhaps how that "buy signal" most likely contributed 
to the bullish % getting above 70% back in March?  In March, the 
"risk was high" as it relates to the bullish %.  Now we might 
understand that risk is "lower" as it relates to the NASDAQ-100 
bullish %.

Today's bullish entry in AMAT on weakness isn't a trade for 
everyone, unless you're comfortable with the "risk" in the trade 
and have some confidence in the point and figure charting system.  
It is imperative that a trader be disciplined with a stop and 
trade the stock on it own merits.

If you're a trader that is holding a bunch of bearish trades from 
our play list, you may indeed have felt more "comfortable" with a 
bullish trade in AMAT, as that trade may eventually offset some 
bearish trades you hold in other weaker NASDAQ stocks that trade 
BELOW trend and have BEARISH vertical counts associated with 
their charts.

My thoughts have always been, that strong stocks tend to gain 
first bullish sponsorship when a rally takes hold and that weaker 
stocks will lag the rally. 

With the NASDAQ-100 bullish percent at lower levels of 
bullishness, there has been a lot of risk reduced in the NASDAQ-
100.  We're very early to be looking long, but at lower risk 
levels, the odds are in the favor of a bullish trade just above 
trend.

If you like AMAT as a bullish trade, but just not comfortable 
with the stock's recent decline, then look for some firming in 
the NASAQ-100 (NDX) near the 1,200 level.  It certainly will help 
a bull in an AMAT trade to see some type of "market firming" in 
the NASDAQ-100.  Hey, if the weakest of technology stocks will 
find buyers, then the odds greatly increase for one of the 
stronger stocks to find buyers.

Key technicals to watch for tomorrow!

I've said before that the Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,091 +0.32% 
can have an impact on "investor psychology" and tomorrow could be 
an important day.  The Dow managed to squeak out at 32-point gain 
today and now sits just below downward trend on the bar chart.  

A break much above the 10,120 level could spark a near-term rally 
in the Dow Industrials and also get some bears to get a little 
nervous in the NASDAQ.  

The Dow's action today really diverged from the NASDAQ and if it 
can lead higher, it might just pull the rest of the market up 
with it.

We've tightened our stops in the play list and will be ready for 
whatever the MARKET deals out.  May sure to check the play list 
for updates so you've got a plan in place.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

Applied Materials - AMAT - close: 22.87 change: -1.53 stop: 20.89

Applied Materials, the largest supplier of products and services 
to the global semiconductor industry, is one of the world's 
leading information infrastructure providers. Applied Materials 
enables Information for Everyone(TM) by helping semiconductor 
manufacturers produce more powerful, portable and affordable 
chips. (source: company press release)


- ORIGINAL WRITE UP: April 25th, 2002 -

It has been days now that the Premier Investor Newsletter has 
been looking for and discussing a pull back in shares of AMAT as 
a preferable entry point to go long. The recent dip under the 50-
dma and today's trading around $24.50 to $25.00 looks like a 
great dip to support at the bottom of its ascending regression 
channel (we would encourage you to use a standard regression 
channel from the September lows). It would seem now is the time 
to put our "money" where our mouth is (using a hypothetical 
portfolio of course). 

Previously, we had AMAT on the bullish tech stock play list but 
we were never triggered as shares never traded at $27.20 or 
above. Yet now that the sector has pulled back we believe traders 
might get a favorable entry point as AMAT slips with the sector 
movement. The challenge is that while buying AMAT between $24 and 
$25 looked good a few days ago, the deterioration in the SOX has 
suddenly soured our stomach on going long AMAT at this level. 
Investors should use a market, sector, stock focus when 
evaluating plays because the vast majority of a stock's movement 
is market and sector related. Yet AMAT is a good example of how a 
strong stock, who has seriously been out performing the sector, 
will still get dragged down as the group moves lower. The belief 
follows that when the sector turns around then AMAT will out 
perform to the upside. This all sounds well and good but both 
Jeff and I look at AMAT's chart and feel like we're about to try 
and grab a falling knife. Hence the move from the tech list to 
the high risk/reward list.

This is our plan. We're going to set an entry range on AMAT and 
if shares trade anywhere inside it we'll "go long" but by doing 
so we have to give the stock some room to move if the SOX keeps 
slipping. Traders who follow this strategy have to be willing to 
take some heat or just sit back and wait for a bottom and 
turnaround to reappear. Given that the SOX had fallen five days 
in a row, today's less than 1 percent gain does not offer us a 
lot of confidence. The chip index is less than one point above 
its 200-dma. Is the group short-term oversold? Yes. Can it 
continue to breakdown? Absolutely. If the SOX moves lower 
tomorrow, then a re-test of the 500 level of support seems like a 
sure thing. Now how do we apply this to AMAT?

With the expectation that the SOX is doomed to trade lower, then 
we are going to use an entry range of $22.99 to $22.00. Odds are 
good we'll get triggered at the $22.99 side of the range but when 
we do we'll start the play with a stop loss at $20.89, which is 
below the Feb. 22nd low. AMAT would have to cross its 200-dma 
before we got stopped out. Traders should feel comfortable 
adjusting the entry range to their own style. Maybe yours is 
between $22.49 and $21.50. Maybe you'd rather wait to see if AMAT 
trades to its 200-dma first. Whatever you do, we would suggest 
you look at a PnF chart of the SOX to give you perspective on the 
chip sector's strength. FYI: AMAT has set its earnings date for 
Tuesday, May 14th, 2002.

- Most Recent Update: May 2nd, 2002 -

It took two weeks and a change of strategies, but we're finally 
long on AMAT.  En route to a loss of 6.2 percent, shares fell 
below our trigger price at $22.99.  We think the timing of this 
play works in our favor.  Had we been triggered when the SOX was 
still up at 525, there might have been enough potential sector 
downside to violate our stop.  However, our odds are better now 
that the SOX is hovering near the critical 500 support level.  
We're expecting a bounce from this level to give AMAT a boost.  
However, caution is encouraged.  Even though we are buying on the 
pull back, the chip sector's reaction to the fresh industry 
report out today is discouraging.  The Semiconductor Industry 
Association (SIA) said that March semiconductor revenues dropped 
20 percent but this was still the best year-over-year comparison 
in months.  Gains in the chip sector this quarter were strongest 
in the DRAM and programmable chip industries.  The 7.2 percent 
rise in sales over February is the largest month-over-month 
increase since 1986.  Yet despite this positive news the SOX sold 
off again with what appears to be a very strong failed rally at 
its 200-dma (again).  The real test will be to see if the 500 
level will hold as support like many in the market expect it to.   
Those who are afraid of catching a falling knife and would like 
to see AMAT display some bullish conviction could wait for the 
stock to move back above $23.50.  This level had provided support 
over the past week.  Now that we've been triggered, our stop is 
set at $20.89.  This will force AMAT to trade below the 200-dma

- Play-of-the-Day Comments: May 2nd, 2002 -

A sell-off in shares of AMAT brought the stock below our trigger 
price.  With the SOX.X just above the critical 500 support level, 
we think a bounce in the chip sector is imminent.  AMAT looks 
near-term oversold and has near-term upside to the $28 level.  
cautionary note: All bets are off if the SOX falls through 500.  
An intraday dip to 497-498 would be within the support range, but 
a solid break below that level would likely create another wave 
of selling in the group, including AMAT.

Picked on May 2nd at   $22.99 
Change since picked:    -0.12 
Earnings Date        05/14/02 (confirmed)
 




================
Market Sentiment
================

A Tale of Two Markets
By Eric Utley

The major market averages finished mixed in Thursday's session.
The blue chip heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) finished
in positive territory.  While the technology barometer in the
Nasdaq-100 (NDX.X) finished much lower.

The sector scorecard revealed a decidedly negative slant to the
technology sectors.  All eight of the tech sectors that I track
finished decidedly negative.  The Semiconductor Sector Index
(SOX.X) earned the day's worst performing sector spot with its
4.39 percent plunge.  What a reversal of role in that sector.
It wasn't too long ago that the chips were the go to sector for
the bulls, but not anymore.  Meanwhile, the Paper Index (FPP.X),
about as old economy as it gets, bolted higher to earn the day's
best performing sector spot.

It was the same story in the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX.X)
yesterday, when fear imploded like it normally does during days
of strength in stocks.  Quite simply, there's no wall of worry
for this market to climb.  Without it, rallies are nothing more
than opportunities to get short.  We are starting to see a tick
higher in the put/call data, but it seems that when the fear
hangs around for a day or two, it inevitably collapses in the
form of excessive call buying.

Such as has been the case this year, the only major bullishness
that I can find is due to the oversold nature of the market.
The ARMS Index is creeping towards extreme territory.  We're
starting to see the longer term numbers move towards extreme
oversold territory, which may be a harbinger of a bigger rally
on the horizon.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     : 10091

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10038
 50-dma: 10282
200-dma:  9928

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1085

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1090
 50-dma: 1126
200-dma: 1128


Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1225

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1293
 50-dma: 1406
200-dma: 1487


Paper ($FPP)

Jefferson Smurfit (NYSE:JS), an Irish paper and packaging
company, said that it was in talks to be acquired.  That news
sparked a rally in the paper sector, sending the FPP higher by
2.05 percent for the day.  The sector was the best performing
on my screen.

Sector movers included Bowater (NYSE:BOW), Louisiana Pacific
(NYSE:LPX), Weyerhauser (NYSE:WY), Boise Cascade (NYSE:BCC),
and International Paper (NYSE:IP).

52-week High: 381
52-week Low : 270
Current     : 360

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 355
 50-dma: 362
200-dma: 360


Semiconductor ($SOX)

The SOX was the day's worst performing sector with its 4.39
percent drop.  Micron's (NYSE:MU) formal withdrawal from buying
Hynix induced another round of selling.

Sector losers included Credence (NASDAQ:CMOS), KLA Tencor
(NASDAQ:KLAC), Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), PMC Sierra
(NASDAQ:PMCS), and Micron.

52-week High: 711
52-week Low : 344
Current     : 504

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 537
 50-dma: 571
200-dma: 536

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

Big surprise, the VIX continued imploding yesterday.  It gained
back a fraction today, but nothing really worth noting.  We'll
see if fear returns next week.

Meanwhile, the VXN has a bit more stick too it, probably because
of the wreck in the Nasdaq-100.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 22.38 +0.07
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 44.43 +0.52

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.93        456,794       425,390
Equity Only    0.84        396,257       332,026
OEX            0.84         10,824         9,106
QQQ            0.60         50,024        30,023
 
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          63      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    25      - 2     Bear Confirmed
DOW           50      + 0     Bear Alert
S&P 500       60      - 1     Bear Alert
S&P 100       54      - 2     Bear Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.31
10-Day Arms Index  1.42
21-Day Arms Index  1.38
55-Day Arms Index  1.24

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1844           1702
NASDAQ    1304           1773

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      248             41
NASDAQ    216             96

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,364
NASDAQ   2,060

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 04/16/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

The spread between S&P commercials and small traders narrowed
during the most recent reporting period.  Commercials added a
few more longs than shorts, resulting in a small reduction in the
group's net bearish position.  Meanwhile, small traders added
quite a few short positions, coming off of the group's yearly
high in bullishness.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
04/02/02      313,294   406,337   (93,403)  (13.0%)
04/09/02      320,101   411,075   (90,974)  (12.4%)
04/16/02      322,578   411,245   (88,667)  (12.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/02/02      149,449     43,139  106,310     55.2%
04/09/02      151,237     47,678  103,559     52.1%
04/16/02      150,529     50,424  100,105     49.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials grew less bearish during the most recent
reporting period.  The group added a number of long positions,
while maintaining last week's short position.  Net, however, the
group is still bearish.  Small traders went in the opposite
direction by adding more shorts than longs, for a decrease in
the group's net bullish position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
04/02/02       26,211     31,840    (5,629)   (9.7%)
04/09/02       28,985     35,221    (6,236)   (9.7%)
04/16/02       32,024     35,723    (3,699)   (5.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   7,774  - 12/21/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
04/02/02       10,615     7,769     2,846     15.5%
04/09/02       11,640     8,353     3,287     16.4%
04/16/02       12,458    10,572     1,878      8.2% 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow commercials grew less bullish during the most recent reporting
period by reducing their number of longs and increasing their
number of shorts.  The group's net bullish position dropped by
about 1,100 contracts.  Small traders added slightly more longs
than shorts for a reduction in the group's net bearish position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/02/02       18,717    12,549    6,168     19.7%
04/09/02       19,393    13,445    5,948     16.7%
04/16/02       19,080    14,267    4,813     14.4% 

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
04/02/02        5,192     9,007    (3,815)   (26.9%)
04/09/02        5,459     9,340    (3,881)   (26.2%)
04/16/02        5,644     9,448    (3,804)   (25.2%) 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------



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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                          05-02-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/e02b_2.asp
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In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  SNE, TTN
  Bearish Play Updates:  BRCM, CA, DPMI, SRNA
  Closed Bearish Play:   KRON

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  CTX, RKY, SII
  Bearish Play Updates:  JPM, MER, GDT, V

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  AMAT
  Closed Bullish Plays:  GNCMA

Split Trader
                         
                         COH:  2-for-1 split announcement
                         DBRN: 2-for-1 split announcement

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Sony Corp (ADR) - SNE - close: 53.45 change: -1.35 stop: 51.25

Media and entertainment stocks were roughed up during Thursday's 
trading.  EchoStar Communications (DISH) and Vivendi Universal 
(V) were both hit with selling, pushing closing prices down about 
5% each.  Although Sony did not escape the selling, it fared 
considerably better than either DISH or V. On the day, SNE dipped 
2.46%, falling $1.35 to 53.45. The current pullback in the shares 
appears to be nothing more than normal profit-taking since the 
shares enjoyed a short-term peak of 56.44 on April 25th. Over the 
next few days it is possible that further profit-taking may 
occur, but we expect that 51.75-52.75 will serve as a rebound 
point for the stock.  Traders can keep an eye on the rising 50-
dma at $52.26, which should act as technical support as well.  
While you're at it, keep your eyes on the NIKKEI as a guide for 
overall investor sentiment for Japanese stocks.  The NIKKEI 
gained 60 points on Thursday and closed back above the 11,500 
mark.  We did note that volume has been declining on the recent 
pullback.  This might indicate a real lack of true sellers.

Picked on April 4th at $53.01
Gain since picked:      +0.44
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

Titan Corp - TTN - close: 22.80 change: +0.10 stop: 20.99

On Wednesday, May 1st, Titan Corporation announced that one of 
its subsidiaries, Titan Systems Corp., had been awarded a 
contract with the US Navy.  The contract was awarded by the Naval 
Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division and will provide Titan 
Systems with a cost-plus-fixed-fee contract, having a potential 
value of $188 million.  Since hitting a short term low of 21.45 
on April 25th, TTN has trended higher.  Technically, TNN is 
experiencing a modest increase in its price momentum, as 
indicated by the RSI, and this should help the shares hold up in 
coming trading sessions.  Despite the positive news and the 
momentum, we want to remind readers that the $23 level continues 
to act as resistance, which we outlined on the PnF chart in our 
initial write up.  More conservative traders may want to consider 
waiting for a close over that level.  

Picked on April 15th at $21.26
Change since picked:     +1.54 
Earnings Date         04/25/02 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Broadcom Corp - BRCM - close: 32.23 change: -1.39 stop: 33.05 *new*

The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) was one of several technology-
related indexes hit with selling during Thursday, and this helped 
our short position in Broadcom (BRCM), a component of that index.  
The SOX dropped 4.39%, closing at 504.  Technically, the 500-510 
region of the SOX is a potentially important support level and 
for this reason we have elected to tighten our buy stop on this 
position, setting the new stop at 33.05.  The shares of Broadcom 
dropped slightly more than 4% during Thursday's trading and, like 
the SOX, BRCM is now sitting on top of a support region which 
runs from about 31.25-32.25.  Additionally, William J. Ruehle, 
BRCM's president, is scheduled to speak next week at two high 
visibility technology conferences:  JPMorgan H&Q Technology 
Conference (Wednesday, May 8th) and the Salomon Smith Barney 
Semiconductor Conference (Thursday, May 9th).  Accordingly, we 
believe that a tighter buy stop will help protect our gains in 
the event that BRCM rebounds off support in coming sessions, or 
responds positively in advance to Mr. Ruehle's scheduled 
appearances for next week.  

Picked on April 24th at $34.84 
Gain since picked:       +2.61
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (confirmed)




---

Computer Assoc. - CA - close: 17.85 change: -0.61 stop: 19.05

Thursday's sharp weakness in technology left few of the major 
tech stocks untouched, and that weakness easily extended to Big 
Board issues as well--to the delight of our short position in CA.  
Computer Associates was pulled down 0.61, or over 3%, with the 
shares nearly bumping up against their 50-dma before CA traded 
lower into the afternoon.  CA has now declined to its key 61.8% 
Fibonacci retracement level (using Feb. lows to April highs) and 
we will be watching to see if the stock attempts to rebound at 
this level, or continues its lackluster performance.  We did find 
it interesting that shares fell sharply in the last two hours of 
the day as if in reaction to a news event.  Yet we could not 
uncover anything that may have spooked investors so quickly.

Picked on April 18th at $18.49 
Gain since picked:       +0.64
Earnings Date         05/14/02 (unconfirmed)




--- 

DuPont Photomasks - DPMI - cls: 35.77 chg: -1.98 stp: 37.51 *new*

Shares of DuPont Photomasks (DPMI) fell over 5% today, producing 
a cumulative gain in this short position of 9.4% as of Thursday's 
close. With the shares closing the trading session at 35.77, we 
will be watching the behavior of our trade closely in the next 
few days.  The 34.45 level represents a key retracement level 
(Fibonacci 161%, using the February lows to the April highs) at 
which sharply declining stocks will frequently attempt to 
rebound. In recognition of this technical observation, we have 
lowered our buy stop on DPMI to 37.51, which should protect a 5% 
gain in the play.  While we consider this a prudent approach for 
the typical investor, more active traders may wish to consider an 
even tighter stop.  Additionally, to round out our strategy, the 
SOX may bounce from the 500 level as many expect but we could get 
another dip lower first.  With that in mind, we're going to 
institute an exit price of $35.50 on DPMI and will close the play 
for a profit if shares trade there or lower.  The very strong 
volume today and the close under $36 hints that the selling may 
not be over yet for DPMI.  Today's news report that the DuPont 
Photomasks will be presenting at the CIBC World Markets Annual 
Electronics Food Chain Conference (May 14th, 2002, 2:05 p.m. EDT) 
was unable to offer any meaningful support to its price.  We 
noted on Tuesday that DPMI will also be presenting at the Merrill 
Lynch Hardware Heaven conference in San Francisco on May 2nd, 
2002 at 11:15 a.m. PST.  

Picked on April 26th at $39.47
Gain since picked:      +$3.70
Earnings Date         04/24/02 (confirmed)
 



---
 
SERENA Software - SRNA - cls: 12.66 chg: -0.43 stop: 13.41 *new*

We now enjoy a 15%+ gain in our Serena short. Even though we 
lowered our buy stop to 14.01 on Tuesday, we are going to lower 
it again today in order to ensure that we keep our hard won 
success.  Our new stop is 13.41, which is just slightly above the 
5 dma -- a very aggressive moving average we use when protecting 
profits.  We have chosen to implement the tighter stop for a few 
technical reasons.  The most obvious of these is this: SRNA is 
now very near a longer term support region, which formed about 7 
months ago, and which is in the 12.50 region--virtually just 
below Thursday's closing price of 12.66.  Using stops to lock in 
profits is an important component of our trading strategy; in the 
case of this trade, lowering our buy stop will help ensure we 
keep most of our gains regardless of SRNA's movement in coming 
days.  Don't forget that we currently have a profit target to 
exit the play if SRNA trades to $12.51, which could happen early 
Friday morning.  We would not consider new positions at this 
time.

Picked on April 23rd at $14.94 
Gain since picked:       +2.28
Earnings Date         02/21/02 (confirmed)





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  -------------------
  Closed Bearish Play
  -------------------

Kronos Inc. - KRON - close: 42.00 change: +0.60 stop: *text*

We noted on Tuesday that our effort to short Kronos had yet to be 
triggered.  The reason:  buyers seemed all too happy to 
consistently buy the stock near the $39 level during recent days.  
Tuesday's rally in the Nasdaq and software group, pushed KRON 
back over the $40 mark--very near the 200-dma.  Healthy advances 
on both Wednesday and Thursday have only pushed the price of KRON 
higher despite a continuing decline in the GSO.X, with the stock 
experiencing a close of 42.00 today. Although we have removed 
this trade from our short play list, we are going to continue to 
monitor this stock closely, since its recent appeal to buyers, 
and improving RSI, may make it a candidate for a long play in the 
next several days.  More persistent bears may also want to keep 
it on their list as shares are currently trading near the stock's 
descending trendline.  You can see the trendline if you draw it 
from the late January high through the April highs and then 
extend the trendline forward.

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- see text 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/23/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Centex Corp - CTX - close: 58.18 change: +0.40 stop: $54.89

Another all-time high for the DJUSHB homebuilding index 
translated to a 0.69 percent gain in shares of CTX.  The 
underperformance of the stock relative to the index (which gained 
1.3 percent) could be attributed near-term resistance at $59, 
which kept a lid on an afternoon rally.  Given the sector 
strength and uptrending stochastics, we believe CTX will plow 
through this level.  We'll also be closely monitoring how the 
DJUSHB behaves at current levels.  The index closed right at the 
midline of its ascending channel, which has acted as resistance 
since mid-March.  A move over this level could have the DJUSHB 
trading as high as 420 in the near-term, which in turn could help 
to propel CTX to new all-time highs.

Picked on May 1st at $57.78 
Gain since picked:    +0.40
Earnings Date      04/23/02 (confirmed) 




--- 

Adolph Coors - RKY - close: 68.76 change: +0.64 stop: 63.89

RKY moved higher today for the fourth straight session and 
continued to distance itself from previous resistance at $68.  
Within the first half-hour of trading shares, had moved over our 
trigger price of $68.36.  This activated this long play with a 
stop at $63.89.  Shares briefly traded over $69.00 before closing 
with a gain of almost 1 percent.  The technical picture remains 
strong: Volume has been increasing over the past couple of days, 
and was particularly brisk today with a reading of 535K versus 
the 322K average.  The MACD is on the brink of a bullish 
crossover, which bodes well for a continued rally.  Traders still 
looking to go long could open bullish positions at current 
levels, although more conservative traders might want to wait for 
a pullback and successful test of previous resistance at $68.

Picked on May 2nd at $68.36 
Gain since picked:    +0.40
Earnings Date      04/25/02 (confirmed) 




---

Smith Intl. Inc - SII - close: 73.30 change: +1.84 stop: 65.49

SII reported lower Q1 earnings this morning, owing to a decline 
in drilling activity in the Americas.  Of course, the April 
earnings warning took most of the surprise out of today's 
announcement, and the Q1 EPS (ex-items) was in-line with 
estimates.  SII traded higher by 2.57 percent on the news to 
close at an 11-month high.  Helping to push the stock higher was 
a similar move in the oil service index (OSX.X), which also 
closed at near-term highs.  Curiously, the price of crude oil 
(cl02m) slipped lower for the third straight session.  Lately the 
OSX seems to be rising with little regard to what happens in the 
oil markets.  As long as the sector remains strong, we think SII 
is well-positioned to move higher.  Shares have followed through 
on the quadruple-top breakout of $70 and seem to be building 
upside momentum.  A glance at the volume readings over the past 
week is encouraging for bulls, since volume has declined on days 
when SII pulled back.  With a near-term upside of $80, we think 
traders still looking to go long could do so at current levels.  
The $80 level coincides with both psychological resistance and 
just above the top of SII's ascending channel.  

Picked on April 26th at $71.29 
Gain since picked:       +2.01
Earnings Date         05/02/02 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

J.P. Morgan - JPM - close: 36.25 change: +0.75 stop: 38.01

Shares of JPM popped by more than 2 percent on Thursday after 
successfully testing the 50-dma earlier in the week.  The stock 
was able to climb over near-term resistance at $36 but wasn't 
able to muster a test of the 200-dma at $36.56.  Overall, we're 
not overly concerned about today's bounce.  Shares may be 
catching up with the Dow Jones, which has gained nearly 200 
points from the Tuesday low.  The fate of JPM may rest on whether 
the Dow continues in its downward trend.  The industrials are 
currently at the top of a descending channel dating back to mid-
March.  JPM would be hard-pressed to move higher if the index 
sold off from these levels.  However, with the daily stochastics 
and MACD both looking bullish, we would wait for a move below 
today's low of $35.49 before considering new positions.

Picked on April 24th at $35.40
Gain since picked:       -0.85
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Merrill Lynch - MER - close: 42.94 change: +0.84 stop: 46.06

MER gapped higher this morning following an upgrade from fellow 
brokerage Solomon Smith Barney.  Shares traded in a narrow range 
between $42.50-$43.00 for most of the session, ultimately 
finishing with a gain of nearly 2 percent.  We mentioned in the 
most recent update that a rollover from $43 might provide an 
attractive entry point, and it looks like this may still be the 
case.  More conservative traders could enter on renewed weakness 
with a stop above today's high above $43.06.  In terms of sector 
performance, we'd look for a continued rise in the XBD.X 
broker/dealer index to peter out near the 200-dma at 475.  In 
after-hours news, Merrill's Vice Chairman announced his 
resignation after 25 years.  His timing is interesting, 
considering the recent SEC investigation into MER analysts.  
However, he denied that the probe was a factor in his departure.  

Picked on April 24th at $43.72
Gain since picked:       +0.78
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

Guidant Corp - GDT - close: 39.35 change: -0.15 stop: *text*

The intraday chart of GDT looked a bit like a cardiogram after 
news of an FDA approval hit the wires this afternoon.  Shares 
shot higher after the government green-lighted Guidant's heart 
failure treatment system.  In earlier trading, shares had been 
gravitating near the $39.50.  Buyers bid the stock as high as 
$41.50 on the news, but the rally was short-lived.  GDT actually 
closed under where they were before the announcement.  Overall, 
its hard to read too much into today's action.  Since we're not 
triggered yet, we have the luxury of waiting to see how the 
market digests this recent development.  Remember, we'll go short 
if GDT trades at or below $36.94.

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (confirmed)




---

Vivendi - V - close: 30.67 change: -1.59 stop: 32.36 *new*

Pardon my French, but doesn't "Vivendi" roughly translate into 
"freefall"?  That certainly seems to be the case, judging by the 
way V continued its high-volume decline today.  Shares gapped 
down sharply and traded flat for most of the session.  The stock 
finished with a loss of nearly 5 percent and hit yet another all-
time low.  In the "can it get any worse?" department, a French 
court ruled today that a voting malfunction had marred the 
results of the recent shareholders vote.  The news came during 
the market and didn't seem to have much of an impact on the stock 
price, but really exemplifies the fundamental uncertainty that is 
causing V to drop.  Also in the news was word that Vivendi may 
have to cough up $250 million to Herb Alpert, a famed trumpeter 
who sold his Rondor Music to Seagram for stock in August of 2000.  
Vivendi bought Seagram later that year and the agreement with 
Rondor came with it.  Part of the agreement included a parachute 
of up to $250 million if V's stock falls under $37.50 for more 
than 10 straight trading days (source: CBSMW).  As if investors 
weren't frustrated enough, this news about an additional $250M 
pay out could have more investors running for cover.  
Technically, the stock is approaching psychological support at 
$30.  We expect the bulls to defend this level.  A short-covering 
bounce seems likely, especially considering the steep decline 
over the past two weeks.  In order to protect profits we're going 
to lower our stop to $32.36, a penny above yesterday's high.  
Short-term traders may want to strongly consider taking profits 
now.  PI is currently up 8 percent on this play.

Picked on April 24th at $33.35
Gain since picked:       +2.68
Earnings Date         04/24/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Applied Materials - AMAT - close: 22.87 change: -1.53 stop: 20.89

It took two weeks and a change of strategies, but we're finally 
long on AMAT.  En route to a loss of 6.2 percent, shares fell 
below our trigger price at $22.99.  We think the timing of this 
play works in our favor.  Had we been triggered when the SOX was 
still up at 525, there might have been enough potential sector 
downside to violate our stop.  However, our odds are better now 
that the SOX is hovering near the critical 500 support level.  
We're expecting a bounce from this level to give AMAT a boost.  
However, caution is encouraged.  Even though we are buying on the 
pull back, the chip sector's reaction to the fresh industry 
report out today is discouraging.  The Semiconductor Industry 
Association (SIA) said that March semiconductor revenues dropped 
20 percent but this was still the best year-over-year comparison 
in months.  Gains in the chip sector this quarter were strongest 
in the DRAM and programmable chip industries.  The 7.2 percent 
rise in sales over February is the largest month-over-month 
increase since 1986.  Yet despite this positive news the SOX sold 
off again with what appears to be a very strong failed rally at 
its 200-dma (again).  The real test will be to see if the 500 
level will hold as support like many in the market expect it to.   
Those who are afraid of catching a falling knife and would like 
to see AMAT display some bullish conviction could wait for the 
stock to move back above $23.50.  This level had provided support 
over the past week.  Now that we've been triggered, our stop is 
set at $20.89.  This will force AMAT to trade below the 200-dma 
at $21.56.

Picked on May 2nd at   $22.99 
Change since picked:    -0.12 
Earnings Date        05/14/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

General Communication - GNCMA - cls: 9.40 chg: -0.44 stop: *text*

We've given GNCMA plenty of time to prove itself, but the stock 
never lived up to our expectations.  Specifically, we were 
looking for shares to trade above $10.31, which would have 
required a move above the 200-dma (currently at $10.10) and the 
near-term high at $10.26.  Instead, the stock traded in a pattern 
of lower highs before dropping 4.4 percent during today's 
session.  The plummeting telecom sector may have been too much 
for GNCMA to withstand.  The technical picture has changed now 
that the stock has fallen below support at $9.50, so we're 
closing this play tonight without having been triggered.

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earings Date         04/24/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

After nearly tripling since September, COH sets 2-for-1 split

Minutes after the bell the market opened this morning, Coach, Inc. 
(NYSE: COH) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 
2-for-1 stock split.

The split will be affected as a 100% stock dividend, to be payable 
on July 3, 2002 to shareholders of record on June 19, 2002.   

This marks the first time COH has split since it began trading in 
October 2000.  Shares of many specialty retail companies have 
performed strongly in recent months, with COH leading the way:  
The stock is up 185% from its September lows.

Shares closed at $55.59 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=COH


About the company
Coach, with headquarters in New York, is a leading American 
marketer of fine accessories and gifts for women and men, 
including handbags, women's and men's small leathergoods, business 
cases, luggage and travel accessories, footwear, watches, 
outerwear, jewelry, furniture and related accessories.
(source: company press release)

-----

Dress Barn declares 2-for-1 stock split

Following its fiscal Q3 earnings report, The Dress Barn, Inc. 
(NASDAQ: DBRN) announced this afternoon that its Board of 
Directors had declared a 2-for-1 stock split.  

The split will come in the form of a 100% stock dividend and will 
be distributed on May 31, 2002, to stockholders of record on May 
17, 2002.

This marks the first time DBRN has split since a 2-for-1 offering 
in 1987.  YTD, the stock is higher by nearly 25%.  

Shares closed at $31.00 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=DRBN


About the company
Dress Barn is one of the nation's leading specialty store chains 
offering value-priced women's career and casual fashions. The 
Company operates 760 stores in 43 states. (source: company press 
release)



==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

RD      Royal Dutch Petroleum      53.69     +1.04
LEH     Lehman Brothers Holdings   62.12     +2.12
UB      Unionbancal Corp           49.60     +1.09
MGA     Magna Intl. Inc            77.38     +2.48
RJR     RJ Reynolds Tobacco        71.35     +1.05
BSC     Bear Stearns Companies     63.19     +0.59

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MCH     Millennium Chemicals Inc   15.20     +1.50
TDY     Teledyne Technologies      18.80     +1.05
NTBK    Net.Bank Inc               17.04     +1.25
HOLX    Hologic Inc                17.39     +1.30

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

WM      Washington Mutual Inc      39.45     +1.29
RIG     Transocean Sedco Forex     38.66     +1.46
CLX     Clorox Co                  46.39     +1.81
STJ     Saint Jude Medical         84.09     +1.50
VFC     VF Corp                    45.33     +1.33
DO      Diamond Offshore Drilling  33.20     +1.18

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

TM      Toyota Motor Corp          53.70     -1.99
TEF     Telefonica Sa              30.20     -2.30
FTE     France Telecom             21.86     -2.68
SAP     SAP Ag ADS                 30.25     -2.10
V       Vivendi                    30.67     -1.57

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CI      Cigna Corp                104.00     -6.83




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