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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 05/08/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter              Wednesday 05-08-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap:      How do you like them apples?
Watch List:       IGT, WLP, XOM, NOVN, AMZN, and VRSN
Play of the Day:  What Software Rally?


******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
      05-08-2002          High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10141.83 +305.28 10148.94  9847.96  1.50 bln   2021/1177
NASDAQ   1696.29 +122.47  1696.35  1625.73  2.39 bln   2465/1085
S&P 100   540.62 + 22.40   540.80   518.22   Totals    2486/2262
S&P 500  1052.67 + 20.76  1075.96  1052.65
RUS 2000  509.75 + 10.77   509.83   498.98
DJ TRANS 2753.01 + 69.17  2756.56  2684.57
VIX        23.16 -  1.41    24.09    22.28
VXN        45.85 -  4.27    49.16    45.85
TRIN        0.38
PUT/CALL    0.65

******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

How do you like them apples?

Now that's what equity traders call a rally.  The Dow Industrials 
(INDU) jumped 305 points (+3.10%), the S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 
gained 39 points (+3.75%) and the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) surged 
122 points (+7.78%), as stocks jolted to their most powerful 
daily performance of the year with some determination following 
better than expected earnings from Cisco Systems (CSCO).

Bulls could care less what the "reason" was for today's rally was 
and they like their apples green, just like a Granny Smith.  
There was plenty of green to go around today and many of the 
sector gains were in the double-digit percentages.

U.S. Market and Index Watch




Only the Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 76.92 -0.74% and the DJUS Home 
Construction Index (DJUSHB) 382.29 -0.68% finished lower on the 
session.  While Treasury YIELDS finished in the green, the higher 
YIELD in the 30-year ($TYX.X), 10-year ($TNX.X) and 5-year 
($FVX.X) shows a major round of selling took place (YIELDS rise 
as price of the bonds fall) and most likely a great deal of the 
cash either found its way into stocks or becomes slated for 
buying some stocks on a pullback.

Gold most likely pulled back as today wasn't really a day that 
bulls were looking to play defense.  Homebuilders saw marginal 
weakness as the higher YIELDS in the 10 and 30-year YIELDS will 
make it difficult for mortgage rates to drift lower, as has been 
the case in recent weeks.

But don't think that every market participant believes today's 
rally was anything more than short-covering from an oversold 
condition.  Stephen Carl, head of U.S. equity trading at The 
Williams Capital Group, labeled Wednesday's action as "an 
aberration."  Carl went on to say, "The market's been depressed 
for so long, particularly in the tech sector.  People were 
looking for an excuse to buy, and Cisco's earnings report 
provided it."

And there was some covering done, especially in Cisco Systems 
(NASDAQ:CSCO) $16.27 +24.38%.

Cisco Systems Chart - Daily Interval




Cisco's bar chart with retracement and regression overlaid is 
probably the best example of assessing risk/reward in a trade 
that can be found.  We can perhaps see how bears were willing to 
risk a move to the upper end of regression and retracement at 
$15.27 for a potential climactic sell-off on bad news to the 
lower end of regression and retracement at $11.24.  In 
yesterday's commentary at OptionInvestor.com, I pointed out that 
bears holding the stock short/put from the $15 level may want to 
lock in 1/2 position gains as risk/reward in the stock looked to 
be 50/50.  When the stock gapped this morning and traded above 
the $15.27 level, it was time to call it quits and move to the 
sidelines.

Cisco's chart is also an excellent example of how important 
"discipline" is when it comes to trading.  Sure, the 
fundamentalist that is bearish is saying, "This is crazy!  
There's no way Cisco's earnings should have triggered such a 
market rally."  

Well, it seems crazy, but to a bear, it could become an excuse to 
be complacent and hope the stock pulls back.  Today's earnings 
response makes about as much sense as the November 5th response 
when CSCO reported earnings of 4-cents a share and beat estimates 
by 2-cents and the stock jumped from the $18 level to $21.80 over 
the next couple of weeks.  Then on February 6th, CSCO reported 
earnings of 9-cents a share and beat estimates by 4-cents.  Just 
as it did little good for bulls to argue and scratch their heads 
as to the decline from February 6th, the MARKET sure didn't sit 
around and argue today.  Bearish traders that were trading the 
regression trend into last night's close understood where a risk 
level was and when it was broken to the upside, it was time to 
remove the risk from the account.

Even the beaten down GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) 130 +12.39% saw 
robust gains.  In late April, the GSO.X had achieved our near-
term bottom where we expected a rebound at the 130 level, but did 
fall further without much of a rebound.  Well... until today.

GSTI Software Index Chart - Daily Interval




The GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) closed at its session high and 
hints that bears were locking in gains into the close.  We're 
cautioning bears not to be complacent and underestimate the 
potential of a prolonged rally.

The GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) is one of the "biggest" sector 
indexes as it relates to the number of stocks that comprise the 
index.  Many have just 15 or 20 stocks in the index, but there 
are 52 stocks that comprise the GSO.X.  While I can only show 39 
of them (due to vertical size limitations), 51 of the 52 
components finished the session with a gain.

39 volume leaders in the GSTI Software Index (GSO.X)




A rising tide in technology lifted all boats in the GSO.X index 
today.  Well, all but one.  Poor little old Amdocs (NYSE:DOX) 
$17.74 -1.44%.  Hey!  What am I saying.  That's one of our 
bearish plays on the play list!

Amdocs Ltd. Chart - Daily Interval




Today, Merrill Lynch downgraded Amdocs Ltd. (DOX) to "long-term 
buy" from "strong buy," saying that recent channel checks suggest 
there continues to be worrisome trends beneath the surface, such 
as 1) little traction in the 2.5G wireless billing market, 2) 
decline in size/number of new contracts, 3) customers demanding 
price adjustments, and 4) limited growth opportunities and 
expansion near-term in the wireline/3G/product via acquisition.  
Merrill also thinks that DOX management is still in the "denial 
phase" when it comes to revenue/EPS guidance, as they are guiding 
for 10% growth while Merrill estimates a 12-22% decline next 
year, which is 20% below the Street's consensus.

One has to wonder.... why does Merrill wait until today to 
actually downgrade the stock?  I went through some notes.  On 
November 1 of last year, Merrill had removed DOX from its 
"Techfolio" list at $26.62.  Then on January 23rd, when the stock 
was trading $32.60, Merrill was "cautious" on DOX, saying that 
sequential declines in revenues, deferred revenues, backlog, and 
license revenues, pointed to weak results.

Speaking of Merrill Lynch (NYSE:MER) $43.95 +8.14%, traders 
should have been stopped out of this bearish play at the opening 
of trading at $43 for a small gain from profile.  With MER being 
one of the company's under the SEC's watch, maybe one doesn't 
have to wonder why.  Yes, we weren't the only ones looking short 
the stock and $44, and I don't think we'll be the only ones 
looking for another opportunity between $46 and $48.

Merrill Lynch Chart - Daily Interval




Was it Cisco's earnings or last night's news report from Reuters 
that Merrill Lynch's court appearance with the New York Attorney 
General Eliot Spitzer had been pushed back until May 16th due to 
"productive discussions" between the parties, or this morning's 
Wall Street Journal story that reported MER and the NY AG had 
arrived at a "framework" for a possible deal that could soon 
settle an investigation in to the firm's stock-research practices 
and prevent the AG from seeking civil or possible criminal 
charges, that had the stock rebounding today?

If you said "Who cares?" then you're probably not in the 
minority.  As usual, we'll look for the best trade setup, wait 
for things to settle down a bit, and if the stock rallies back to 
a level where we can control our risk better and MACD begins to 
roll over, you'll probably see "mother Merrill" on our bearish 
play list again.

Can the rally last?

One thing we monitored today was the action in the Treasury 
market.  Treasuries sold off rather sharply today, and its a 
rather "rare" occurrence that the bond market would see such 
sharp selling due to an earning's announcement from ANY company 
(well, maybe a General Electric, but not CSCO).  No, there's 
something else other than just Cisco's (CSCO) earnings from last 
night.  Something that had MARKET participants willing to sell 
the safety/security of Treasuries.  

The deep cyclicals as depicted by the Morgan Stanley Cyclical 
Index (CYC.X) 580.15 +2.53% partially "confirmed" today's move in 
techs and now threatens to get back above the upward trend on our 
bar charts, currently at 580.  I say "confirmed" as it pertains 
to my past thoughts of how this group of stocks needed to perform 
strong and act like a leader.  Tomorrow's action in the CYC.X 
could well be a near-term key to just how bullish today's rally 
could get going forward, or fall back on its face.

Tomorrow, I'll be watching the bond market and CYC.X closely.  If 
Treasuries see further selling tomorrow and the CYC.X breaks back 
above the 580 level, then the "force" or "conviction" behind a 
move higher will most likely dictate what bears do in their 
bearish technology positions.  It could also dictate what "new 
bulls" do with cash raised from today's cash raised from bond 
selling.

In Friday's wrap, I discussed shares of FedEx (NYSE:FDX) $52.76 +5.71%
as a stock I'd be monitoring closely this week for a 
bullish trade.  If we were to see some weakness tomorrow, I'd 
look to trade long FDX on a pullback below $51, follow with a 
stop at $49.50 and target $58 as a bullish trade target.  If we 
don't get a pullback, then I'd be willing to take 1/2 position 
long on a break above $53.25, stop $49.50 and target $58.

Cyclical Index Components - Sorted by % daily gain




FedEx (NYSE:FDX) is a stock we wanted to monitor this week.  I 
like what I've seen and the stock was a "top performer" in the 
cyclicals.  If the CYC.X breaks above the 580 level with some 
conviction tomorrow, the FDX is a good bullish candidate.

Don't forget.  In November and December of last year, there were 
a lot of fund managers criticized for "missing the move" off the 
bottom.  Even with today's NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X) 10.6% gain, the 
NASDAQ-100 bullish percent is only showing a reading of 23% and 
still "bear confirmed" and would take a current chart reading of 
46% to get back to "bull confirmed!"  Bears are still carrying 
the bulk of the risk in the bigger technology.  There's plenty of 
time to get long.

Stay disciplined!

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician
PremierInvestor.net


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------


Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 62.18 change: +0.21

WHAT TO WATCH: Attentive PI readers may recall that we shorted 
IGT last month (April 17th), but were stopped out for a small 
gain after the stock reached the bottom of its descending 
regression channel.  Shares traded sharply higher after reporting 
strong earnings on April 23rd and have since moved to the top of 
the channel.  Since IGT shows no signs of breaking over this 
level, we're looking for shares to head lower in the near-term.  
The oscillators support our bearish outlook, with the daily 
stochastic heading lower and the MACD beginning to level off near 
the baseline.  Potential short entries could be evaluated on a 
move below the near-term low of $61.29, which is just below the 
50-dma.  We'd be targeting a move to the 200-dma at $58.11.


 

---

Wellpoint Health Ntwk - WLP - close: 74.63 change: +1.32

WHAT TO WATCH: Those of you who trade with a "fade the crowd" 
mentality might be interested in shorting this HMO stock.  WLP 
joined the HMO.X (Morgan Stanley Healthcare Index)in a mammoth 
rally that had the sector trading near all-time highs on almost a 
daily basis throughout March and April. During the index's two 
month ascent, we periodically forecasted (successfully, we might 
add) probable resistance levels using the "stacked channel" 
method.  This involves taking an existing regression channel (in 
this case, the one in which the HMO index traded from the 
September lows to mid-April), and then "cloning" it and stacking 
it on top of the original channel.  The index found resistance at 
the top of the "stacked" channel but eventually broke higher.  
When this happened we stacked a third channel on top of the 
second.  The HMO ran headlong into the top of this channel and 
has since been dropping lower.  You can view a picture of this 
stacked channel by visiting the website and clicking on tonight's 
watch list.  A break of the HMO 600 level could open the door for 
a move to 550.  WLP looks near-term overbought (the MACD just 
gave a bearish crossover) and may be a good way to short the 
index.  Look for a bump off the all-time highs near 77.00 or a 
break below today's low of 71.88 as possible shorting trigger 
points.   




---

Exxon Mobil - XOM - close: 40.01 change: +0.91

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this Dow component have dropped nearly 
10% from its April high and are now resting above an ascending 
trend line dating back to September.  We think XOM is a good 
candidate for a dip-buying strategy because, in addition to 
staying above the historical uptrend, the shares have 
successfully tested bullish p-n-f support.  A breakout in the 
price of oil (which is threatening a move to multi-year highs) 
may fuel a rebound in shares of XOM.  Watch for a close above the 
200-dma at 40.28 to offer a possible action point for bullish 
positions.


 

---

Noven Pharmaceuticals, Inc - NOVN - close: 21.75 change: +0.75

WHAT TO WATCH: NOVN primarily manufactures prescription 
transdermal products, including delivery systems for use in 
hormone replacement therapy. We find this a potentially 
attractive long play for several technical reasons: 1) the RSI is 
rising nicely, as is our fast Stochastic; 2) the stock just moved 
above its 50-dma today, and used this as support; 3) the MACD 
just signaled a bullish crossover at the zero line; and 4) our 
longer term weekly chart shows that NOVN has just finished a two 
month consolidation, off of which it has started to advance.  A 
modest pullback to 21.00 should offer an attractive entry point 
for active traders.  The stock should possess short-term support 
at 20.50.  Keep in mind that shares could have overhead 
resistance at the $23 and $24 levels.




--- 

Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 17.32 change: +1.21

WHAT TO WATCH: Amazon broke its short term negative trend of 
declining prices during Wednesday's trading, and we like this 
stock as a potential long play.  AMZN has created a support zone 
in the 16.36 region.   After today's sharp advance, we would 
encourage active investors and traders to look for a dip as an 
opportunity to take long positions. Our expectation is that 
Amazon will dip on Thursday or Friday to the 16.36-16.88 region, 
and this could provide an entry opportunity for investors.  
Currently, AMZN just crossed the midline of its ascending channel 
(from the September lows) and we would probably target the top of 
the channel near $20.00.




--- 

VeriSign - VRSN - close: 10.25 change: +1.37

WHAT TO WATCH: On April 25th, VeriSign presented less than 
impressive earnings, was downgraded by several brokerages and was 
confronted by analysts who predicted the company's revenue would 
be shrinking in coming quarters.  With such unpleasantries 
abounding, was anyone really surprised when the stock received a 
nasty 45+% hair cut in its stock price?  So why would we think 
this stock has potential as a long play?  Yes, I said "long."  
This is a high risk, high reward play that would need to be 
traded with strong, unwavering discipline. Our thinking goes like 
this: Stock prices have a tendency to rebound quickly when they 
enter a previous downward "gap" or "fast move" area.  VRSN will 
only be attractive if it actually begins moving into the huge gap 
region it left on April 25th.  However, we can play the "fast 
move" area ahead of the gap and--for our trading purposes-- this 
fast move region begins at 10.50 and ends at $12.00.  Once in 
such a trade, it is mandatory that traders use a tight sell stop 
and we would suggest something in the neighborhood of 9.96 or 
slightly lower.  It is unclear how much of the gap VRSN might 
attempt to fill, but the first point at which to expect it to 
stall would be 11.90, which is 10 cents below the bottom edge of 
the true gap.  Tops and bottoms of a gap or a window can be 
strong resistance.  However, if VRSN can break above $12.00 it 
could trade to the top of the gap near $15.00 rather quickly.





===============
Play-of-the-Day  (Bearish)
===============

Amdocs Ltd - DOX - close: 17.74 change: -0.26 stop: 18.51 *new*

Amdocs is the world's leading provider of CRM, billing and order 
management systems to the communications industry. Amdocs has an 
unparalleled success record in project delivery of its mission-
critical products. (source: company press release)


- ORIGINAL WRITE UP: May 3rd, 2002 -

Recently one of the hotly debated subjects at the PI office has 
been whether it's too late to short tech stocks. No doubt about 
it, the NASDAQ is looking oversold and the software sector has 
been hit even harder. The GSO.X software index has lost over 30% 
since early March and is just 9 points away from its all-time low 
at 112. Nonetheless, we're playing DOX because the stock is 
technically weak and there is no guarantee that the GSO will find 
support. After all, the SOX.X just fell below the 500 level that 
had provided support for several months. What grabbed our 
attention today was the way DOX dropped 3.6 percent on high 
volume and closed under support at $20. Shares have traded in a 
descending channel for most of the year and are just now dropping 
from the upper band. The downtrend has accelerated in recent 
weeks, following the April 23rd earnings announcement in which 
the company reported higher profits but guided lower for the 
year. This resulted in no less than three brokerage downgrades 
for DOX. Thanks for the head's up, guys. With the bears firmly in 
control, we're looking for a near-term move to the channel's 
midline at $18. This would be a move of nearly 9%. A complete 
breakdown in the sector could bring the stock even lower, but 
we'll evaluate our exit strategy if/when DOX trades near the $18 
level (a move to the $17 or $16 area does not seem out of the 
question). Under normal circumstances we have no problem taking 
10% risk with our stop on a high-risk play. However, given the 
sharply oversold sector, we're going to go with a 5% stop at 
$20.76. This will still force shares to trade over $20, which 
should now act as resistance. Traders with a more aggressive 
approach may want to place their stop above near-term resistance 
at $22.

- Most Recent Update: May 7th, 2002 -

Bearish traders in DOX kicked the week off in style yesterday 
after the stock plummeted 8.5%.  Selling volume was brisk, at 
10.1M versus the 2.7M average.  Due to the steep decline, we 
tightened our stop to 20.01.  Today's trading was more subdued, 
as shares traded in an extremely narrow range near the 18.00 
level for most of the day.  Although the lack of buyers is 
encouraging, DOX will likely receive a shot in the arm tomorrow.  
We think the NASDAQ (including the oversold software sector) will 
rally on the news that CSCO reported strong-than-expected Q3 
profits.  Of course, any less than positive news from the CSCO 
camp before tomorrow's open--or negative brokerage opinions--
could quickly change the bullish outlook.  If DOX does head lower 
we'll be looking for a move below today's low of 17.85.  This 
would be a violation of today's "inside day."  Note that because 
of the gap lower on Monday, our entry price is the opening price 
of 19.25, instead of our original picked price of 19.73.

- Play-of-the-Day Comments: May 8th, 2002 -

Now that's what we call relative weakness!  DOX faded every other 
component of the GSO.X software index today and finished in the 
red.  Shares were pressured by a downgrade from Merrill Lynch, 
and traded as low as 16.11 before finishing with a 1.4% loss.  
Although this bodes very well for our short play, we're going to 
lower our stop to 18.51, which is above today's high.  This 
should protect a gain of 3.8%.  If the tech rally fizzles out 
tomorrow we'd expect DOX to at least retest today's low.  On the 
other hand, DOX may try to play "catch-up" with the rest of the 
sector if the NASDAQ continues higher tomorrow.  Traders should 
verify market weakness before considering any new short position 
in this stock, and be aware that the bottom of the stock's 
descending channel (currently at 15.00) may provide support.

Picked on May 3rd at $19.25
Gain since picked     +1.51
Earnings Date      04/23/02 (confirmed)
 





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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 05-08-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/e07b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:
  
Net Bulls
  Closed Bearish Plays: CA

Active Trader Non-Tech Stocks 
  Closed Bullish Play:  CTX
  Closed Bearish Plays: GCI, JPM, MER, V

High Risk/Reward
  Stop Adjustments:     AMAT (bullish), DOX (bearish)

Long-Term Plays
  Closed Bullish Play:  UNM

Split Trader Stock Splits
  Split Announcement:  
                        APWR: 3-for-2 split announcement
                        PRSP: 2-for-1 split announcement
  Split Update:         FDC:  Distribution date announcement

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  -------------------
  Closed Bearish Play
  -------------------

Computer Associates - CA - cls: 18.66 chg: +1.28 stop: 17.80

We enjoyed a nice gain in our CA short position of about 6% into 
yesterday's close.  Naturally, we knew some of this would 
evaporate once this morning's CSCO-inspired opening sent most 
tech stocks considerably higher. By the time the dust cleared at 
the open, our gain in this short position had been cut in half, 
giving us a modest 2.7% gain.  CA gapped up higher, and far more 
aggressively than expected, when the market opened at 9:30 a.m. 
EDT.  Had this been an actual trade with a 17.80 buy stop, the 
trade would have likely been executed at the opening level of 
18.00.  It is always frustrating to lose a good chunk of your 
profit....but remember this: it is a heck of a lot more troubling 
to lose your money, and your shirt.  Stops help you keep both.  

Picked on April 18th at $18.49 
Gain since picked:       +0.49
Earnings Date         05/14/02 (unconfirmed)





=================================================================
Active Trader/Non-tech Stocks (AT) section
=================================================================

===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  -------------------
  Closed Bullish Play
  -------------------

Centex - CTX - cls: 55.14 chg: -1.11 stop: 54.89

When CSCO said "jump" this morning, all the techs did, and so did 
tech investors. Unfortunately, investors apparently decided to 
sell one sector to help finance today's new positions in tech 
sectors...and one that was sacrificed was that of home 
building/construction. Although the Dow Jones US Home 
Construction Index (DJUSHB) lost only .68%, our position in this 
sector, CTX, lost nearly 2%.   Centex essentially dropped right 
from the open, triggering our sell stop when it moved below our 
stop of 54.89 on its way to a daily low of 54.60.  

Picked on May 1st at $57.78 
Gain since picked:    -2.89
Earnings Date      04/23/02 (confirmed) 




  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  -------------------- 

Gannett Company - GCI - cls: 74.58 chg: +3.08 stop: 72.37

Tech stocks weren't the only ones to benefit from last night's 
strong CSCO earnings.  Media stocks also caught a bid, with CCU, 
DIS, DJ, GCI, KRI all finishing solidly in the green.  Fueling 
the sector rally may have been speculation that companies more 
willing to spend money on networking equipment will also consider 
spending more on advertising.  Of course, on a day when the Dow 
jumped over 300 points it's difficult to find sectors that didn't 
experience a strong day.  GCI opened strong this morning and 
quickly moved above our stop at $72.37.  This closed out our play 
for a 2.3% gain.  GCI may continue higher in the near-term, but 
there was no company-specific news to fuel today's move and we'd 
look for shares to falter near the 50-dma at $76.17.

Picked on May 3rd at $74.13 
Gain since picked:    +1.76
Earnings Date      04/16/02 (confirmed)



 
---

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. - JPM - cls: 36.91 chg: +2.28 stop: 35.56

Today's sharp rebound in the market--and a hefty 6.5%+ advance in 
the Securities Broker Dealer Index (XBD.X)--caused immediate 
hardship for our short position in JPM.  Our buy stop of 35.56 
would probably have been executed (had this been an actual trade) 
at the opening price of 36.59, a full dollar above our stop 
level.  Stops, as all investors should and better know, 
effectively become market orders that are executed at the first 
price once the stop has been triggered.  The opening spike in JPM 
caused yesterday's modest profit in the position to disintegrate, 
leaving us with a loss of about 3%.  

Picked on April 24th at $35.40
Gain since picked:       -1.19
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (confirmed)




---

Merrill Lynch - MER - cls: 43.95 chg: +3.31 stop: 43.00

As we had anticipated, MER shot higher today following last 
night's news that a settlement with NY Attorney General Eliot 
Spitzer may be imminent.  Shares gapped sharply higher and opened 
at $43.00.  Since this was above our stop at $41.01, we closed 
MER at the opening price.  That was still good for a 1.65% upside 
gain from our entry point.  The stock trended higher with the 
rocketing Dow Jones for the remainder of the session and finished 
with an 8.1% gain.  Due to the likely resolution of the NY 
investigation, we wouldn't recommend short positions at this 
time. 

Picked on April 24th at $43.72
Gain since picked:       +0.72
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

Vivendi - V - close: 29.07 change: +1.50 stop: 28.50

Au revoir, Vivendi.  This play worked out better than we had 
hoped, as shares suffered losses, day after day, and traded to 
multi-year lows.  Of course, nothing goes down in a straight line 
and the stock was overdue for a bounce.  Today's monster rally in 
the Dow Jones provided the impetus for a 5.4% gain in V.  Shares 
gapped higher this morning and opened at $28.50, above our stop-
loss.  Thus, our play was closed out at the opening price for a 
gain of 14.5%.  Although V is still oversold and may continue 
higher in the near-term, the fundamental and technical weakness 
leads us to believe that the stock has not put in a "V-bottom" 
(no pun intended).  We may revisit this play if shares roll over 
once reaching the $30-$32 level.  It will be interesting to see 
if investors change their bias on the stock now that Vivendi has 
completed its deal to acquire USA Networks for $10.3 billion.

Picked on April 24th at $33.35
Gain since picked:       +4.85
Earnings Date         04/24/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  Stop Adjustments
  ----------------

Applied Materials - AMAT - cls: 25.56 chg: +3.24 stp: 22.49 *new*

The chip sector exploded today after CSCO's positive earnings 
triggered a short-covering rally.  The semiconductor index 
(SOX.X) gained 11.1%, and AMAT outperformed with a 14.5% gain.  
PI is now up 10% on this play, and cautious traders may want to 
consider heading for the exits if the rally tapers off tomorrow.  
We're willing to give AMAT more room to move, but are going to 
minimize our risk by moving our stop to 22.49.  This would force 
the stock to fill in nearly all of this morning's gap, and we 
think this is unlikely to occur.  Furthermore, we're setting a 
profit-target of 26.95.  We'll close the play if shares trade at 
or above that level.  Hopefully, the recent news about a growing 
expectation from analysts that AMAT is likely to meet or beat 
estimates and provide positive guidance will get shares to our 
profit target.  In some of the news stories out recently you 
might see that Prudential has a $35 price target for AMAT while 
Lehman Brothers has a $27.50 price target.  Our short-term profit 
target is just under the more conservative analyst number.  More 
aggressive traders may want to target the current overhead 
resistance at $28.00 as their exit point (or something just short 
of it).  AMAT is expected to announce earnings next Tuesday.  


 

--- 

Amdocs Ltd - DOX - close: 17.74 change: -0.26 stop: 18.51 *new*

Every single component of the GSO.X software index finished in 
the green today...except for DOX.  Shares were pressured by a 
downgrade from Merrill Lynch, and traded as low as $16.11 before 
finishing with a 1.4% loss.  Although this bodes very well for 
our short play, we're going to lower our stop to $18.51, which is 
above today's high.  This should protect a gain of 3.8%.  





==================================================================
LONG-TERM PLAYS (LT) section
==================================================================

===============
LT Closed Plays
===============

  -------------------
  Closed Bullish Play
  -------------------

UnumProvident Corp - UNM - close: 26.75 change: -0.15 stop: 26.89

After marching steadily higher in early-April, our long-term 
insurance play just couldn't seem find its footing.  UNM stumbled 
early this week ahead of its earnings report and broke below 
near-term support at $27.50.  On Tuesday the stock declined below 
our stop at $26.89, which closed this play for a loss of $1.59, 
or 5.5%.  This made the Tuesday evening earnings announcement a 
moot point, but for those who are curious the company reported an 
EPS of 62 cents/share, versus the consensus estimate of 63 
cents/share.  UNM said its quarterly net profit fell by more than 
half, due to investment-related losses.  This morning the stock 
traded sharply lower on the news but (thanks to the soaring Dow) 
was able to recoup most of these losses by the closing bell.  
Although shares may have established a near-term bottom today, at 
this point we think there are other stocks in the insurance 
sector that may offer more attractive long plays than UNM.

Picked on April 5th at $28.48
Gain since picked:      -1.59
Earnings Date        05/07/02 (confirmed)





=================================================================
Split Trader Stock Splits (ST) section
=================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

AstroPower generates a 3-for-2 stock split

Just as traders went to lunch today, AstroPower, Inc (NASDAQ: 
APWR) announced that its Board of Directors had authorized a 3-
for-2 stock split.

The split will come in the form of a 50% stock dividend and will 
be distributed on May 31, 2002 to shareholders of record on May 20, 2002.

APWR has not split since it began trading in 1998.

Shares closed 32.45 on Tuesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=APWR


About the company
AstroPower develops, manufactures, markets and sells a range of 
solar electric power generation products, including solar cells, 
modules, panels and our SunChoice(TM) pre-packaged systems for the 
global marketplace. (source: company press release)

-----

Prosperity Bancshares sets 2-for-1 stock split

Before the bell this morning, the Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. 
(NASDAQ: PRSP) Board of Directors announced a 2-for-1 stock split.

The split will take the form of a 100% stock dividend and will be 
payable on May 31, 2002 to stockholders of record on May 20, 2002.

This will be the first time PRSP has split since the stock began 
trading in late 1998.  YTD, shares have risen by approximately 25%.

Shares closed at $33.98 on Tuesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=PRSP


About the company
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. SM, formed in 1983, is a $1.290 
billion bank holding company headquartered in Houston, Texas. 
Operating under a community banking philosophy, Prosperity seeks 
to develop broad customer relationships based on service and 
convenience. (source: company press release)

--- 

==================
Stock Split Update
==================

At its annual shareholders meeting, First Data Corp.'s (NYSE: FDC) 
shareholders approved announced that it will now be able to 
complete a previously announced dividend stock split.  
Shareholders of record as of May 20, 2002 will receive one share 
of the company's common stock for each share owned. The 
distribution will occur after the close of business on June 4, 
2002.


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change  

BBT     BB&T Corp                  38.61     +0.53
UNP     Union Pacific Corp         58.30     +1.50
GDW     Golden West Financial      68.98     +0.59
APA     Apache Corp                58.90     +0.57
MGA     Magna Intl. Inc            74.90     +1.01
ABK     Ambac Financial Group      63.81     +0.95

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

INGR    Intergraph Corp            18.40     +1.40
KROL    Kroll Inc                  19.80     +1.26
SMTL    Semitool Inc               15.18     +1.04

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

KO      Coca-Cola Co               57.62     +2.11
UNH     United Health Group Inc    89.61     +1.80
CCL     Carnival Corp              34.58     +1.27
RIG     Transocean Sedco Forex     37.20     +1.70
DGX     Quest Diagnostics          94.75     +2.86
AU      Anglogold Ltd              28.59     +1.77
BBI     Blockbuster Inc            30.00     +1.40

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ACE     ACE Ltd                    39.69     -3.83
PCAR    Paccar Inc                 68.30     -3.17
MRVL    Marvell Technology Group   33.88     -2.12
SEE     Sealed Air Corp            43.45     -1.22
SNPS    Synopsys Inc               43.72     -1.39
BMS     Bemis Co                   51.76     -1.47

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

        ... none ...



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