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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 05/09/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                          05-09-2002
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Slow Drift Lower
Play-of-the-Day:  Software Faces Hard Wear
Market Sentiment: Bull Alert!


-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
        05-09-2002        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10037.40 -104.40 10144.70 10016.70 2153 mln   1117/2050
NASDAQ   1650.50 - 45.80  1762.28  1725.24 1580 mln   1189/2313
S&P 100   531.69 -  8.93   540.62   531.15   totals   2306/4363
S&P 500  1073.01 - 15.84  1088.85  1072.23
RUS 2000  501.39 -  8.36   509.85   501.37
DJ TRANS 2702.44 - 50.57  2753.93  2700.35
VIX        24.36 +  0.75    24.54    23.39
VIXN       48.08 +  0.28    48.66    47.01
Put/Call Ratio      0.77
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Slow drift lower

It was a slow drift lower for the major indexes today as stocks 
gave back about one-third of yesterday's gains.  I struggled to 
find any type of chart that screamed out at me to trade it.

Today's stock "excitement" was found in Clean Harbors 
(NASDAQ:CLHB) $12.07 +11.65%, after news hit that traces of 
anthrax were found in pieces of commercial paper at the Federal 
Reserve mail facilities.  Clean Harbors (CLHB) does more than 
just test for anthrax, as the company is also involved in the 
treatment and disposal of industrial wastes for customers in the 
U.S. and Puerto Rico.

Clean Harbors Chart - Daily Interval



I'm always hesitant to mention stocks that "make a move" from 
news that may fade into the sunset the following day and leave 
traders holding the bag.  While Clean Harbors definitely fit the 
profile of a "story stock" back in October, after first reports 
of anthrax type terrorist activity in the U.S. it's notable that 
the stock also responded bullish back in February when the 
company announced intentions to buy beleaguered Safety-Kleen's 
chemical testing operations.  Just yesterday, the Amex announced 
that it would start trading options on the stock beginning today.  
For many company's, having listed options on the stock can open 
some institutional ownership doors.  Many institutions will not 
even consider investing/holding a security unless it has listed 
options on the stock.  If a stock does have options, an 
institution may be more willing to buy the stock, then if 
something goes wrong and liquidity in the underlying stock due to 
market conditions is limited, the risk can be partially offset in 
the options market.

Software still seems soft

The GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) fell 4.2% to 124.84 today as 
sector bellwether Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) $52.12 -5.18% gave 
back the bulk of yesterday's gains, despite yesterdays news that 
it had seen sales surge for its X-box video game system 
throughout Europe as customers embraced the recent price 
reductions.

Shares of Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) $8.48 -7.32% suffered declines and 
broke back below yesterday's low.  This comes a day after 
Oracle's CFO Jeff Henley questioned Gartner/Dataquest's 2001 
database market share report, which hinted that Oracle was 
loosing its dominance in the database software arena.  Oracle 
believes the way the study was conducted was not fair as 
competitors IBM (NYSE:IBM) $79.93 -3.05% and Microsoft (MSFT) 
provided industry analysts with numbers that were not audited.

Oracle Corporation Chart - Daily Interval



As I scoured some technology stocks to short today, ORCL's drop 
back below yesterday's low hints that there are few bulls trying 
to defend the stock.  Aggressive bears may be shorting with a 
stop just above yesterday's high of $9.18.  Yes, that's about 9% 
heat to a stop from current levels, but a trader trading a 
partial position can ease into a short.  While it seems 
"ruthless" to some to short a stock that's under duress and lacks 
defenders, its usually the lamb that cries the loudest that a 
bear plucks from the flock.

Speaking of "lambs" in the software sector.  Amdocs (NYSE:DOX) 
$16.95 -4.45% found few buyers today, even after JP Morgan came 
out in defense of the software maker, saying that concerns over a 
weakening pipeline were based on misinformation.  

Another stock to look at tomorrow based on the "inside day" 
trading technique for a potential short is a recently dropped 
play in shares of SERENA Software (NASDAQ:SRNA) $13.99 -3.51%.  
The stock rallied from our bearish target where the play was 
closed on Tuesday, right back to the upper end of downward 
regression.  If software stocks continue to weaken, then SRNA may 
be another good trade using the "inside day" technique of 
shorting the break below today's low of $13.99, following with a 
stop just above today's high of $14.62 and targeting the $11.50 
level short-term.

A day of rest?

Shares of Overture Services (NASDAQ:OVER) $18.31 -1.00% may be a 
stock to keep an eye on near-term.  After announcing that its 
relationship with AOL had ended, the stock has been sitting right 
at a retracement support level near $18.  I would have thought 
the stock might have rallied just a little bit yesterday with 
some shorts locking in gains, but it doesn't appear that there 
are too many nervous bears looking to cover their positions.  
With a bearish vertical count of $0.00 on the point and figure 
chart, a break below today's low of $17.85 could have remaining 
bulls saying "it's over" and flushing the stock to the $12.50 
level.

Overture Services Chart - Daily Interval



One thing I'm trying to look for in a trade right now, is a trade 
that not only provides some "room" to a target, but more 
importantly a trade setup where I can better control my risk.  A 
break below today's low of $17.85 could trigger selling in shares 
of OVER as bulls call it quits.  There may be some frustration 
with the stock that it didn't rally yesterday.  A tight stop can 
be placed just above yesterday's high of $19.39 with the 
thinking, if it couldn't trade above that level on Wednesday when 
stocks were rallying, then it shouldn't trade above that level 
near-term.  However, a trader following that logic would stay 
firm with a stop at $19.40 to be safe.

I still feel that "tech bears" need to be very disciplined and 
not complacent with their trading as the NASDAQ-100 bullish % 
($BPNDX) is below the 30% level and a bear needs to be very 
careful of short-covering rallies, perhaps like that found just 
yesterday.

Today was what many traders call a "dull market" in that stocks 
just edged lower.  There's an old trader's saying that "you never 
short a dull market."  I agree with that to a point.  However, I 
think a bear can still be very selective, look for trades where 
they can control their risk with some tight stops, and look for 
some stocks where capitulation can drive the price lower.

For bullish traders, today's market action really looked as if 
bulls have little interest in things.  I was impressed with 
Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) $25.26 -1.17% ability to trade 
above the $26 level, but the overall lack of bullishness in the 
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 503.48 -3.61% will test my patience.  
As a trader, I'm just not willing to give back a nice gain like 
we have right now, especially in such a difficult market 
environment that bulls have had.  

If we have to trade stocks like AMAT 20 times this year to scalp 
a 10% gain, then that's what we'll try and do.  If other bulls 
are just going to sit around on their hands and do nothing but 
trade a range, then that's the kind of adjustment you and I may 
have to make.  In tonight's play update, we're moving the stop up 
to $24.90 to try and remove risk from the trade.

Cyclicals were dead

Today's action in the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) 
574.27 -1.01% showed little effort from bulls to push past the 
580 level.  While one day doesn't may a trend, this is a sector 
that bulls could have really pushed to try and make a statement.  
If not for DOW Chemical's (NYSE:DOW) $33.64 +3.25% gain, the 
CYC.X wouldn't have held up as well.

Economic data

I don't think today's jobless data had any impact on trading.  
Sure, a better number could have helped the bulls, but this 
morning's number just didn't stimulate any juice to build on 
yesterday's rally.

Tomorrow morning we'll get April Producer Price Index (PPI) and 
the PPI Core.  Economists are looking for 0.4% and 0.1% 
respectively.  I'm not expecting any surprises from the numbers.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (New BEARISH play)
=========================

BMC Software - BMC - cls: 16.45 chg: -0.13 stop: 17.11 

Company Description: 
BMC Software, Inc. provides major corporations with comprehensive 
software solutions to enterprise (company-wide) information 
management. BMC's software solutions and products allow a company 
to manage the various components and technologies within their 
information technology (IT) systems from end to end, from 
mainframes to web applications.

Why We Like It: 
Since May 1st, BMC has moved sharply upward from a low of 13.97 
to today's high of 16.78.  A recent upgrade on May 6th by 
Deutsche Securities as well as a favorable earnings report in a 
two-day period represents two of the major reasons for this spike 
in the stock price.  While we think a good earnings report will 
help BMC longer term, we currently view the stock as over-
extended in the near term and ready for a hefty pullback.  
Technically, the stock stalled today right at both its 50-dma and 
200-dma, and volume has been declining while the price has moved 
higher.  Both are negatives.  Accordingly, we have elected to 
take a short position in BMC. Our preference would be to short 
BMC on a small advance, perhaps to the 16.65 region, but shorting 
at or slightly below today's close (16.45) may be necessary if 
the stock fails to bounce in the next few days.  Thus we're 
opening the play at current levels but we'd suggest waiting to 
see if it trades up slightly to get a better entry point.  We'll 
protect our position with a buy stop placed fractionally above 
the converging 50-dma and 200-dma, at 17.11.  We will be looking 
for a decline to the 14.90 region at which we may elect to take 
profits--we'll just have to see once we reach that level.

Picked on May 9th at $16.45 
Gain since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date      05/06/02 (confirmed)





================
Market Sentiment
================

Bull Alert!
By Eric Utley

Tech bulls have been waiting for this day since 200 points ago in
the Nasdaq-100 (NDX.X).  That's right, ladies and gentleman, the
NDX is in bull alert.  It happened this morning with a simple
buy signal from one of the components.  The indicator actually
added four stocks today, but it only needed one based on
Wednesday's level.

We've been seeing signs of short term selling exhaustion (don't
confuse that with capitulation) for a more than a week now.
The ARMS Index (INDEX:TRIN) reached extreme levels, which were
worked off during Wednesday's blow-off, but more importantly
I had been keying off of the oversold nature of the $BPNDX.
Any time a bullish percent indicator gets below 30, I start
paying attention to the upside risk associated with such a
condition.  (The $BPNDX, by the way, reached as low as 17
recently.)

The reversal in itself doesn't say much for short term
direction.  Instead, it tells us that short term risk is
weighted to the upside.  Yes, that can translate into a
higher probability for upside, but it's not an absolute.

There are several things to think about tonight concerning
open Nasdaq-100 positions.  If you're short, you have to
start assessing where your upside risk lies.  If you're
sitting on healthy profits, for instance, now would be a good
time to start scaling out of positions.  Intraday weakness
from here may be a good place to start bringing in your
short positions, because you can bet that's what the
institutional players will be doing.

If you've been itching to get long tech names, now is the
time to start trying aggressive bullish positions in some of
the NDX's stronger names.  The types of stocks to look for are
ones on buy signals, preferably trading at or near meaningful
support levels.  Also, look for stocks that have achieved
vertical counts, and have since rebounded from them.  These
types of set ups allow for tighter risk management.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     : 10037

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  9966
 50-dma: 10275
200-dma:  9914

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1073

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1073
 50-dma: 1123
200-dma: 1124

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1240

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1230
 50-dma: 1389
200-dma: 1474


Gold ($XAU)

The XAU returned to the best performing sector spot Thursday with
its 2.13 percent rebound.  Merger talk surfaced which may have
spurred a bid in the group, but the weakness in stocks also
contributed to the strength of this defensive group.

Sector leaders included Harmony Gold (NASDAQ:HGMCY), Barrick
(NYSE:ABX), Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM), Anglogold (NYSE:AU), and
Meridian Gold (NYSE:MDG).

52-week High: 80
52-week Low : 49
Current     : 79

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 77
 50-dma: 70
200-dma: 60


Biotech ($BTK)

The BTK went back out of favor during Thursday's retreat.  The
group shed 4.79 percent for the day, finishing at its low for
the session.

Sector movers included ImClone (NASDAQ:IMCL), Celera (NYSE:CRA),
Affymetrix (NASDAQ:AFFX), Sepracor (NASDAQ:SEPR), Millennium
(NASDAQ:MLNM), Human Genome (NASDAQ:HGSI), and Protein Design
Labs (NASDAQ:PDLI).

52-week High: 676
52-week Low : 375
Current     : 395

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 412
 50-dma: 478
200-dma: 515

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

Not by much surprise, the VIX turned lower on the strength in
stock's during Wednesday's session.  But the fear gauge did
turn higher Thursday, keeping its short term ascending trend
intact.

The VXN too turned lower in Wednesday's trading, but spiked
higher Thursday.  It too is still trending higher.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 24.33 +1.04
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 48.08 +2.27

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.77        451,887       348,300
Equity Only    0.68        368,213       251,872
OEX            1.61         13,253        21,396
QQQ            0.67         32,639        21,922

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          63      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    27      + 4     Bull Alert
DOW           53      + 3     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       59      + 1     Bear Alert
S&P 100       54      + 2     Bear Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.41
10-Day Arms Index  1.45
21-Day Arms Index  1.39
55-Day Arms Index  1.24

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1114           2076
NASDAQ    1186           2315

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE       96             30
NASDAQ    133             69

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,154
NASDAQ   1,580

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 04/30/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials grew less bearish again during the most recent
reporting period by adding more longs than shorts.  It was the
third week of decreased bearishness for the S&P commercials.
Meanwhile, small traders grew less bearish by adding more
short positions.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
04/09/02      320,101   411,075   (90,974)  (12.4%)
04/16/02      322,578   411,245   (88,667)  (12.1%)
04/30/02      340,936   421,673   (80,737)  (10.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/09/02      151,237     47,678  103,559     52.1%
04/16/02      150,529     50,424  100,105     49.8%
04/30/02      153,158     56,372   96,786     46.2%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials grew less bearish by adding a number of
long positions last week.  The group is still net bearish, but
growing less so with each week.  On the other side, small
traders slipped from a net bullish to a net bearish position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
04/09/02       28,985     35,221    (6,236)   (9.7%)
04/16/02       32,024     35,723    (3,699)   (5.5%)
04/30/02       34,591     35,933    (1,342)   (9.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   7,774  - 12/21/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
04/09/02       11,640     8,353     3,287     16.4%
04/16/02       12,458    10,572     1,878      8.2% 
04/30/02       12,271    12,703     (432)      1.7%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders reduced their net bullish position again during
the most recent reporting period.  The group grew less bullish
by dropping more longs than shorts.  Meanwhile, small traders went
in the opposite direction by reducing their net bearish position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/09/02       19,393    13,445    5,948     16.7%
04/16/02       19,080    14,267    4,813     14.4% 
04/30/02       17,275    13,341    3,934     12.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
04/09/02        5,459     9,340    (3,881)   (26.2%)
04/16/02        5,644     9,448    (3,804)   (25.2%) 
04/30/02        5,813     8,869    (3,056)   (20.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------



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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                          05-09-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/e09b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Play:      BMC
  Bullish Play Updates:  SNE, TTN
  Bearish Play Updates:  TBH

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Play:      IGT
  Bullish Play Updates:  RKY, DCX, GR, LTR, MHK, SII, TBL
  Closed Bearish Play:   GDT

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  AMAT
  Bearish Play UPdates:  DOX

Split Trader
                         
                         ATK:  3-for-2 split announcement
                         APPB: 3-for-2 split announcement
                         JNC:  2-for-1 split announcement

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB New Plays
===============

  ----------------
  New Bearish Play
  ----------------

BMC Software - BMC - cls: 16.45 chg: -0.13 stop: 17.11 

Company Description: 
BMC Software, Inc. provides major corporations with comprehensive 
software solutions to enterprise (company-wide) information 
management. BMC's software solutions and products allow a company 
to manage the various components and technologies within their 
information technology (IT) systems from end to end, from 
mainframes to web applications.

Why We Like It: 
Since May 1st, BMC has moved sharply upward from a low of 13.97 
to today's high of 16.78.  A recent upgrade on May 6th by 
Deutsche Securities as well as a favorable earnings report in a 
two-day period represents two of the major reasons for this spike 
in the stock price.  While we think a good earnings report will 
help BMC longer term, we currently view the stock as over-
extended in the near term and ready for a hefty pullback.  
Technically, the stock stalled today right at both its 50-dma and 
200-dma, and volume has been declining while the price has moved 
higher.  Both are negatives.  Accordingly, we have elected to 
take a short position in BMC. Our preference would be to short 
BMC on a small advance, perhaps to the 16.65 region, but shorting 
at or slightly below today's close (16.45) may be necessary if 
the stock fails to bounce in the next few days.  Thus we're 
opening the play at current levels but we'd suggest waiting to 
see if it trades up slightly to get a better entry point.  We'll 
protect our position with a buy stop placed fractionally above 
the converging 50-dma and 200-dma, at 17.11.  We will be looking 
for a decline to the 14.90 region at which we may elect to take 
profits--we'll just have to see once we reach that level.

Picked on May 9th at $16.45 
Gain since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date      05/06/02 (confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Sony - SNE - close: 54.60 change: -0.54 stop: 51.25	

In Tokyo, the Nikkei Average gained 1 percent, closing at 
11,633.30. The healthy market advance in Japan was at least 
partially the result of Wednesday's Dow 300 point spike.  After 
Wednesday's sharp advance in Sony, though, SNE experienced very 
modest profit-taking today.  We continue to like the positive 
technical indicators on SNE, and are still looking for a 
breakout--above its recent March 7 high of 57.10--in the next few 
weeks.

Picked on April 4th at $53.01
Gain since picked:      +1.59
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (confirmed)




---

Titan Corporation - TTN - cls: 23.03 chg: +0.08 stop: 21.99 *new*

Titan continues to rack up one new defense contract after 
another. On Thursday the corporation announced that one of its 
subsidiaries, Titan Systems Corporation, had been awarded yet 
another contract, with the US Air Force, with a potential value 
of $33 million. On a day when the general market saw across the 
board profit-taking, TTN continued to plod higher.  We continue 
to like the slow but steady way that TTN's stock price is 
progressing higher.  Technical indicators, particularly the RSI, 
remain bullish and suggest higher prices in coming weeks.  In the 
current market environment, however, it makes sense to 
consistently attempt to protect profits; we have done this by 
raising our sell stop to 21.99.
 
Picked on April 15th at $21.26
Change since picked:     +1.77
Earnings Date         04/25/02 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Telecom Brasil - TBH - close: 27.75 change: -1.80 stop: 29.40 *new*

As we noted in our last update on this equity, it continues to 
look technically weak.  We have adjusted our view concerning the 
near term level to which this stock might decline; we are 
presently looking for a drop to 26.50, perhaps within the next 
several trading sessions.  Aggressive traders may wish to take 
profits as the stock nears this region.  It is certainly possible 
that TBH could drop lower.  In order to take advantage of this 
possibility--as well as lock in an attractive gain in the event 
the stock reverses on us--we are again lowering the buy stop on 
this position, to 29.40.  

Picked on May 3rd at $29.83. 
Gain since picked:    +2.08
Earnings Date           N/A






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT New Plays
===============

  ----------------
  New Bearish Play
  ----------------

Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 61.72 change: -0.46 stop: *text*

Company Description:
IGT is a world leader in the design, development and manufacture 
of microprocessor-based gaming products and software systems in 
all jurisdictions where gaming is legal. (source: company press 
release)

Why We Like It:
Readers may recall that Premier Investor closed out an IGT short 
play on April 22nd, ahead of the company's earnings announcement.  
We exited the play with a small gain just as it showed signs of 
bouncing from the bottom of its descending channel.  This bounce 
was accelerated by a favorable reaction to the earnings report.  
Following the announcement, IGT quickly rose to the top of its 
descending channel but was unable to break above that level.  
Shares have been downtrending for more than a week and look ripe 
for a breakdown.  The daily stochastics are heading lower, and 
the MACD is beginning to level off near the baseline.  This 
suggests that IGT may move lower in the near-term.  P-n-f 
chartists may wonder why we are shorting a stock that is in a 
column of X's.  This is a valid concern, but with IGT at the top 
of its channel on both the bar chart and p-n-f chart, we think 
the upside risk is minimal.  On a related note, the bullish 
percent of the gaming sector is at 66%, which is bear correction 
status.  What this tells us is that within the sector, risk is 
weighted in the bear's favor.  The outlook for IGT is negative, 
but we'd actually like to see the stock display some weakness 
before going short.  For this reason we're initiating this play 
with a trigger at $61.24, below both the near-term low and 50-
dma.  If shares trade at or below this level we'll open this 
short play with a stop at $64.06, just above the near-term high.  
We'll be targeting a move back to the bottom of the regression 
channel near $50.  The 200-dma at $58.14 may offer support, but 
we think IGT will have enough downside momentum to break though 
that level.  More cautious traders may want to wait for IGT to 
actually close below the 200-dma first as an act of confirmation.

Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date      04/23/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Adolph Coors - RKY - close: 66.20 change: -0.28 stop: 63.89

Despite a 300+ session for the Dow Jones, shares of RKY traded 
lower yesterday.  Although this relative weakness is of concern, 
it may have been the result of money rotating out of defensive 
sectors (such as the food and beverage groups), rather than a 
sign of stock-specific weakness in RKY.  Conversely, brewery 
stocks tend to do well on days when the markets suffer a 
substantial loss.  At this point it's a bit difficult to decipher 
which direction RKY will head next, but we'll be looking for the 
stock to remain above the 50-dma (currently at 65.06) and work 
its way back above resistance at $68.  Entries could be evaluated 
on a close above this level unless you're feeling more aggressive 
and want to buy a bounce off the 50-dma. 

Picked on May 2nd at $68.36
Gain since picked:    -2.16
Earnings Date      04/25/02 (confirmed) 




---

DaimlerChrysler - DCX - close: 47.75 change: -0.27 stop: 44.66

DaimlerChrysler received both praise and modest criticism today 
from Wall Street analysts.  The car maker was applauded for its 
cost cutting programs, but some analysts cautioned that 
Chrysler's plan to introduce 11 major new models in the next 
three years was unfolding too slowly, and that such sluggishness 
could hurt 2002 revenue.  Investors were unfazed by the analysts 
views; DCX stock dipped only .5% today.  Technically, this stock 
still looks quite healthy with the growing string of higher lows 
and remains nicely positioned above its 50-dma (45.37).  We think 
there is a good possibility that DCX can move above its March 
19th near term high of 48.12 within the next few trading session.  

Picked on May 6th at $46.50 
Gain since picked:    +1.25
Earnings Date      02/20/02 (confirmed)




---

Goodrich Corp - GR - close: 32.33 change: +0.29 stop: 30.97 *new* 

Goodrich moved higher today, against the otherwise negative 
current of the broad market.  Our short-term technical 
indicators, like the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator, remain 
attractive and suggest prices will attempt to ebb higher in 
coming sessions.  One matter we will be watching, though, is 
whether GR can close above, and stay above, the $32.35 level.  
Shares had found resistance there the last couple of weeks and 
today's close is a minor breakout above it.  Plus, it's the 
second consecutive close back over the stock's 50-dma again.  
Readers may remember that we had been anticipating resistance 
near the $34.50 to $35.00 area as we target the top of its 
ascending channel near $36.00.  More conservative traders, or 
more short-term traders may want to consider exiting with a 
profit near the $34.00 to $35.00 range.  We're going to inch up 
our stop from $30.74 to $30.97 but remain below support at $31.00 
for now.

Picked on May 3rd at $31.97
Gain since picked:    +0.36
Earnings Date      04/24/02 (confirmed)




---

Loews Corporation - LTR - cls: 59.71 chg: -0.35 stop: 58.45

Loews reported lower quarterly earnings today.   The New York-
based conglomerate, which owns CNA Financial, Diamond Offshore 
Drilling, Loews Hotels and watch-maker Bulova, reported a first-
quarter net profit of $234.9 million, compared with $472.3 
million last year.   The company said it had an operating profit 
of $1.31 a share; analysts, on average, expected a profit of 
$1.26 a share. The shares of LTR have been in a short-term 
consolidation for the past week.  With the 50-dma sitting at 
59.16, we will be watching to see if the stock is able to use 
this level--which coincides with a support area as well--as the 
point at which it will begin to rebound.  We would suggest 
waiting for the stock to rebound back above the $60 mark before 
considering a new position.

Picked on May 7th at $60.50 
Gain since picked:    -0.79
Earnings Date      05/09/02 (confirmed)




----

Mohawk Industries - MHK - close: 64.36 change: -0.66 stop: 62.98 

Yesterday's stock market rally was accompanied by a similar rise 
in bond yields.  This partially explains the reason a lid was 
kept on the rate-sensitive DJUSHB homebuilding index, which 
finished the session with a small loss.  MHK managed a small gain 
on Wednesday but headed lower today with a 1% loss.  The 
technical picture remains the same: The 50-dma at $63.43 should 
provide support, while congestion remains at $66-$68.  MHK could 
be at an important turning point.  The stock has rallied from the 
$63.50 to $64.00 for the last three weeks.  A failure to do so 
now could be a change in investor sentiment.  Hopefully, the 
recent article by Smart Money might drum up some new investor 
interest.  The reporter states that MHK's management has 
increased their earnings guidance due to MHK's acquisition of TK 
to add 10 cents to earnings per share in 2002.  This was in 
comparison to the one-cent gain previously expected.  They went 
on to briefly disclaim that MHK was a strong stock based on 
positive fundamental ratios like a share price trading at 13 
times forward earnings, a long-term growth rate of 16% and a PEG 
ratio of below 1.0.  

Picked on May 3rd at $66.30
Gain since picked:    -1.94
Earnings Date      04/15/02 (confirmed)




---

Smith Intl - SII - close: 71.97 change: -1.83 stop: 68.95

A minor sell-off in crude oil sent the OSX.X (oil service index) 
lower today.  Some news sources were attributing the move to 
tensions in the mid-east.  This may or may not be the case, but 
from a technical standpoint it wasn't too surprising to see the 
commodity consolidate after yesterday's gains.  SII also rallied 
on Wednesday but was unable to muster a test of the near-term 
high at $75.65.  Aggressive traders looking for new entries can 
evaluate bullish positions on a move over this level.  If shares 
continue lower tomorrow we'd look the $70 level to act as support 
and a bounce from $70 wouldn't be a bad entry point either.

Picked on April 26th at $71.29 
Gain since picked:       +0.68
Earnings Date         05/02/02 (confirmed)




---

Timberland Company - TBL - cls: 42.20 chg: -0.06 stop: 39.95 

Apparel and shoe maker Timberland Company drifted quietly lower 
today but performed better than the S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 
which declined by 1.3%.  We noted in recent days that TBL 
continues to trade well above its 50-dma, which is positive, and 
that the stock also possesses the ability for an attractive short 
term gain if it can move into a price gap which resides above 
42.68 (actually, you'll notice that sellers are hitting the stock 
between $42.70 and $42.75). Although we may see the stock price 
float lower in coming days as it consolidates, the technical 
indicators remain healthy.  A bounce off the 50-dma at 41.00 
would not be a bad entry point and the MACD looks like it could 
produce a bullish crossover near the zero line at any day.

Picked on May 3rd at $41.89 
Gain since picked:    +0.31
Earnings Date      04/18/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  -------------------
  Closed Bearish Play
  ------------------- 

Guidant Corp - GDT - close: 38.54 change: +1.04 stop: 39.01

In contrast to the rocketing Dow and NASDAQ, GDT traded in a 
subdued fashion on Wednesday following the death of its Chief 
Medical Officer in an auto accident.  The relative weakness could 
also be attributed to money rotating from the healthcare group 
into the long-neglected tech sector.  Wednesday afternoon's 
announcement of a new vessel harvesting system for heart surgeons 
had little impact on the stock, which finished the session with a 
small gain.  Today's trading was a different story, as GDT shot 
to an intraday high of $39.70 after its competitor (MDT) 
announced plans to sell a drug-coated stent.  How this is 
beneficial to GDT is beyond us, but the reaction was decidedly 
positive.  The stock violated our stop-loss at $39.01, which 
closed this play for a loss of 5.6%.  More upside may be in 
store, but if GDT does continue higher we'd expect a rollover 
near the 50-dma at $40.58 or the 200-dma at $41.60.

Picked on May 7th at $36.94
Gain since picked:    -2.07
Earnings Date      04/18/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Applied Materials - AMAT - cls: 25.26 chg: -0.30 stop: 24.90 *new*

Strong earnings from CSCO provided the spark for a monster short-
covering rally in the chip sector on Wednesday.  We suspected 
that the group was due for a bounce, but were nonetheless 
surprised by the strength of the rally.  Of course, we're not 
about to complain about a 14.5% gain for AMAT in one day.  AMAT 
continued higher today before being dragged down by the NASDAQ in 
afternoon trading.  Shares finished with a 1.1% loss, which is 
better than the 3.6% decline turned in by the SOX.X semiconductor 
index.  The near-term outlook is a bit cloudy.  On one hand, AMAT 
has continued its pattern of relative strength and is showing 
bullish signals on the MACD and daily stochastics.  On the other 
hand, the stock has risen sharply from its Tuesday low and some 
chartists speculate Wednesday morning's gap will need to be 
filled before stocks like AMAT move higher.  To avoid getting 
caught in such a move, we're going to raise our stop to $24.90, 
just below today's low of 25.00.  This should protect a gain of 
8.3%.  Also note that in last night's update we placed a profit 
target at $26.95.  We'll close this play if AMAT trades at or 
above this level.

Picked on May 2nd at   $22.99 
Change since picked:    +2.27
Earnings Date        05/14/02 (confirmed)
 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  -------------------- 

Amdocs Ltd - DOX - close: 16.85 change: -0.79 stop: 18.51

As we mentioned in last night's update, DOX was the only 
component of the GSO.X software index that finished Wednesday's 
session with a loss.  This blatant display of relative weakness 
had us thinking that a reversal of the NASDAQ rally would lead to 
additional selling in DOX.  That theory proved correct today.  
The GSO.X software index gave back 4.2% of Wednesday's gains, 
while DOX dropped another 4.4%.  The stock fell despite positive 
comments from of J.P. Morgan; the broker said that concerns about 
a weakening pipeline were based on bad information.  Investors 
may have lent more credence to yesterday's downgrade from Merrill 
Lynch and tossed aside JPM's comments as yet another case of 
"dueling brokerages."  DOX is now approaching the bottom of its 
descending channel near $16, which provided support on Wednesday.  
Cautious traders may want to lock in their gains if the stock 
bounces from this level.  Since this is a high-risk play we're 
going to target a move to psychological support at $15.  We'll 
initiate an official profit-target if/when shares approach this 
level.

Picked on May 3rd at $19.25
Gain since picked     +2.40
Earnings Date      04/23/02 (confirmed)
 





==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

High-flying ATK announces 3-for-2 stock split

In addition to this morning's Q4 earnings report, ATK announced
before the bell that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2
stock split.

The split will be payable on or about June 10, 2002 to stockholders
of record on May 17, 2002.

ATK most recently split in September 2001 - Also a 3-for-2 offering.
Today's announcement comes after a dramatic rise in recent months
that has seen the stock price gain more than 55% since mid-January.
Shares have risen in response to a steady flow of new contracts
from the Department of Defense.

ATK closed at $108.00 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=ATK


About the company
ATK is a $2 billion aerospace and defense company with leading
positions in propulsion, composite structures, munitions, and
precision capabilities. The company, which is headquartered in
Edina, Minn., employs approximately 11,600 people and has three
business groups: Aerospace, Precision Systems, and Ammunition.
(source: company press release)

---

Applebee's serves up 3-for-2 stock split.

Late this morning, word came from Applebee's International Inc.
(NASDAQ: APPB) that the company had declared a 3-for-2 stock split.

The split will come in the form of a 50% stock dividend and will
be payable on June 11, 2002 to shareholders of record on May 24,
2002.

Shares also split 3-for-2 in June 2001. Reflecting a general
uptrend in the restaurant sector, APPB has posted steady gains
since bottoming out in September.  YTD, the stock is higher by
17%.

Shares closed at $39.83 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=APPB


About the company
Applebee's International, Inc., headquartered in Overland Park,
Kan., currently develops, franchises and operates restaurants
under the Applebee's Neighborhood Grill and Bar brand, the
largest casual dining concept in the world. (source: company
press release)
 
--- 

John Nuveen announces 2-for-1 stock split

After the market closed today, the John Nuveen Co. (NYSE: JNC) 
announced that its Board of Directors had declared a 2-for-1 stock 
split and regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.24.

The split will be effected as a 100% dividend and will be 
distributed on or about June 24, 2002 to stockholders of record on 
June 3, 2002.  The quarterly dividend will be paid on June 17, 
2002 to stockholders of record on June 3, 2002.

JNC most recently split in September 2001 (a 3-for-2 offering) and 
YTD has gained 10% 

The stock closed at $59.70 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=JNC


About the company
The John Nuveen Company, through Nuveen Investments, provides a 
distinctive array of industry-leading investment management 
services designed to build enduring relationships with financial 
advisors and their high-net-worth clients, as well as a growing 
number of institutional clients.
(source: company press release)



==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

EC      Englehard Corp             32.05     +0.78
DCOM    Dime Community Bancshare   25.80     +0.89
GBCOA   Greif Brothers Corp        36.89     +0.85

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

GPS     Gap Inc                    15.79     +1.08
RADS    Radiant Systems Inc        13.38     +1.72
GDYS    Goody's Family Clothing    10.15     +1.37

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

PBG     Pepsi Bottling Group Inc   31.40     +1.02
ATK     Alliant Techsystems Inc   113.33     +5.33
TLB     Talbots Inc                37.40     +1.90
CKFR    Checkfree Corp             22.99     +3.04
CHS     Chico's FAS Inc            40.29     +1.45
LIN     Linens 'n Things Inc       36.91     +2.49
SGR     The Shaw Group Inc         33.13     +1.38

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UPS     United Parcel Service      58.42     -1.26
HIT     Hitachi Ltd                69.75     -3.26
MAS     Masco Corp                 27.14     -1.66
HOT     Starwood Hotel & Resort    34.52     -1.34
FLR     Fluor Corp                 38.21     -1.10
CBD     Companhia Brasiliera ADS   21.00     -1.50

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

E       Eni Spa ADS                75.17     -1.17
MGG     MGM Mirage Inc             38.17     -1.45
MGA     Magna Intl. Inc            72.29     -1.85
EXPE    Expedia Inc                72.46     -4.13
WTW     Weight Watchers Intl Inc   36.91     -1.39
CGI     Commerce Group Inc         39.67     -1.32
SR      The Standard Register      32.28     -1.14
WRP     Wellsford Real Proprty Inc 22.00     -0.35
CPV     Correctional Proprty Trust 20.40     -0.69




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