PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 05-15-2002 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/e15b_1.asp ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Cautiously Bullish Watch List: AAPL, CLS, MXIM, RFMD, and more... Play of the Day: Waiting On the Numbers ****************************************************************** MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ****************************************************************** 05-15-2002 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 10243.70 + 29.74 10349.10 10223.70 1409 mln 1681/1485 NASDAQ 1725.60 + 6.50 1759.33 1694.34 1620 mln 1826/1680 S&P 100 542.02 - 3.58 549.41 541.43 totals 3507/3165 S&P 500 1091.07 - 6.21 1104.23 1088.94 RUS 2000 513.54 + 1.82 515.26 508.50 DJ TRANS 2797.98 + 29.74 2808.79 2762.49 VIX 22.13 - 0.03 22.42 21.03 VIXN 45.29 + 0.00 46.13 43.29 Put/Call Ratio 0.70 ****************************************************************** =========== Market Wrap =========== WE REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH My Underlying Market View: Cautiously Bullish. From mid March until early May, the major market indexes--Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite--were in a sustained decline. Major stocks were clobbered. Economic reports seemed contradictory. Bulls suffered. Bears ruled. Frustrating for investors? Heck yeah! But in the last few days we've seen some hopeful improvements--reversals, actually--in the major indexes. And these reversals appear to be significant. As I'll discuss below, I am cautiously bullish on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite as we go forward over the next few weeks. The March-May consolidation now seems to be mostly over-- MOSTLY--and these indexes are displaying technical strength which suggests they will plod higher, in a sloppy two-steps-up-one- step-back manner. Today's Market: The CPI (Consumer Price Index) for April was released this morning. Consumer prices rose 0.5%, compared to an expected 0.4%. During the first four months of 2002, the CPI rose at a rate of 3.8%; during 2001, the CPI rose only 1.6%, and this discrepancy may have been enough to give some investors the willies during trading hours. But investors should have applauded the news on industrial production in the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Industrial output rose 0.4 percent in April, the Federal Reserve said this morning. The Fed noted that this is the fourth straight monthly increase in the output numbers. Capacity utilization rose slightly to 75.5 percent from a 75.3 percent level in March. The industrial reports give increasing support to the notion that the US economy is improving. It's no secret that the markets were holding their breath last night as Applied Materials (AMAT) released its earnings. When the semiconductor company reported slightly better than expected profits yesterday, we suspected that today's markets would get juiced for another positive session. With several brokerages raising their ratings on AMAT this morning, the Nasdaq Composite was able to add on 6.5 points, or 0.37%, to close at 1725. But the big cap indexes were caught up in minor profit taking. The Dow lost 54 points, closing still well above the key 10,000 level, at 10,244. The S&P Index dropped a proportional amount, about 0.5%, to finish at 1091. After the strength of the last few trading sessions, today's pullback in the Dow and S&P 500 (SPX.X) seems only natural. IBM's analyst meeting, which convened after the market closed today, did little to push the S&P futures one way or the other. As of 6 p.m. EDT, the futures were up only fractionally. Big Blue told analysts that its current environment continues to be difficult, but that its long-term expectation is to generate "double-digit" earnings into the future. Cost cutting is expected to be a principle part of this double-digit strategy to achieve these earnings, though the company did not elaborate on any reductions in its huge workforce. With IBM offering little to roil markets after-hours, the only other land mines for which we've been watching this evening concerned earnings. So far all is well on this front. Intuit (INTU) reported better than expected profits while Ann Taylor (ANN) and Brocade Communications (BRCD) came in as expected. Both INTC and BRCD traded down in after hours, but only by about 1/2% to 1%: hardly the stuff that produces market implosions. Getting Ready For Tomorrow, Thursday, May 16th. Thursday morning's economic reports will include 1) housing starts, 2) building permits and 3) initial jobless claims. There has been some uncertainty in the markets recently as to whether the brisk pace of home construction can continue. If the two construction-related reports are better than expected, this will be encouraging for the budding economic recovery in the US. If this is the case, traders can anticipate, more than likely, that Thursday's market will get an opening boost from the positive construction reports. At a technical level, the Market Volatility Index (VIX) has returned to readings in the low 20's. In the last few months the VIX has had a tendency reverse in the 19-20 region; when the VIX does reverse at these levels, selling pressure usually visits the markets. The VIX closed today at 21.93. My interpretation of this is as follows: 1) options investors have become overly bullish, and complacent (since the VIX is a contrarian indicator, this bullishness makes me short term cautious) and 2) as such, near term market volatility is likely to increase once the VIX begins its next upward move. Here are some key technical levels on the major indexes to watch on Thursday, May 16th: The Dow Jones Industrial Average: Support is in the 10,120 region, so another 100+ point dip would not be surprising, perhaps by the end of the week. Could we go lower? Sure, but 9970 should be the worst we'd see. S&P 500 (SPX): First support for the SPX is at 1075. If the bears get frisky, we might get pushed down to the 1055 level. As of tonight, I think that would be about it. Nasdaq Composite: The Composite (COMPX) has been the most volatile of the major indexes. Technically, it looks like it runs into resistance at the 1810 level, about 90 points above today's close of 1725. This means the COMPX might surprise us in coming days with more strength. The index should have support in the 1650-1665 region if and when brisk profit taking hits the tech stocks. Each night I'm going to plan to cover a few of the sector indexes which are likely to see action--good or bad--in coming days. Here's my thoughts on tonight's sectors: Bank Index (BKX) This index has just begun to move off of a two-month consolidation, much like the Dow. It closed at 904 today; our weekly technical indicators all point higher. This index has a tendency to sometimes lead the broader market, and the positive nature of the index is bullish for the S&P 500. Many bank/financial stocks have technical patterns similar to this index. Some of the financial-related stocks which have positive patterns include ONE, FBF, JPM, and HBC. Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC) In our Watch List, and our plays, you've no doubt seen a number of "boring" stocks appear recently. Old guard stocks, so to speak: autos, oils, manufacturers and the like. These are stocks who's well-being is bound to the state of the economy; stocks which rise and fall (hence, cyclical) with good times and bad. This index is mirroring the signals we're receiving from the Dow: higher stock prices in these stocks seem likely. An example: Deere & Company reported better than expected earnings on Tuesday, was upgraded on Wednesday and is flashing a technical pattern that we think is screams "breakout." ELUX, APN, AHC, DE, and DCN are a few stocks traders should watch. The CYC Index closed at 592. Once above 600, this could be a tough one to hold down. Sometimes boring can be good! Morgan Stanley Healthcare Index (HMO) The HMO Index was a big winner during the March-May time period when the rest of the market was suffering. Now, though, I think the tables are about to be turned. Stocks like WLP, which we have profiled recently on our Watch List, are probably in for a few weeks of more profit taking. The HMO Index closed on Wednesday at 609. The index will have to break through the 635 region to begin a new upward move. Conversely, traders involved with stocks in this index will want to be cautious on a move below 570. Semiconductor Index (SOX) The SOX is one of those indexes that can thrash the markets around on a daily basis. It is the tail that wags the dog on many trading days. That's the reason that Applied Materials' (AMAT) earnings were so eagerly awaited last night. Some of the markets' most impressive companies are in this index, including Intel (INTU), Texas Instruments (TXN) and Micron Technology (MU). The SOX closed at 538 on Wednesday. It should have support in the 515 region over the next few trading sessions. If it is able to begin trading above 546, traders should look for the SOX to make a serious run for the 600 region. Oil Services Index (OSX) The oil services sector--composed of stocks like HAL, SLB, BJS, and RIG--has been a powerful performer this year. There is a 50- 50 chance, though, that the index, like the HMO Index, is getting top-heavy and may fall into a multi-week consolidation. The upside to this observation, though, is this: the OSX could add on another 10-12% before running out of steam. The index closed at 106 today. A move back above 112 should allow it to reach the 120 region, which may be its eventual top. If we begin to see the OSX stalling persistently at the 110 region in coming days, however, that is likely to be an indication that its consolidation is ready to start. Siegfried Brian Barger, Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Apple Computer - AAPL - close: 25.28 change: -0.33 WHAT TO WATCH: Short-term traders who are anticipating a continuation of the recent tech rally may want to consider biting into AAPL. After briefly piercing the bottom of its ascending channel last week, the stock shot higher with the NASDAQ. Shares are now faced with a test of resistance at $26, which thwarted rally attempts in February and April. The MACD is curling higher from just below the zero-line. This is significant, because the two previous attempts to break the $26 level were not accompanied by a bullish MACD. This indicates that AAPL may have enough momentum to break over resistance. In terms of specific action points, we'd be looking for a move over the 2002 high of $26.17. Shares may face additional resistance at the 2001 high of $27.12, but if the tech sector remains strong we'd expect a test of the top of the channel near $28. P-n-f chartists would also point out that a trade at $27 would create a double-top buy signal. --- Celestica - CLS - close: 32.55 change: +1.39 WHAT TO WATCH: The past week has been a fun ride for shareholders of CLS: The stock has risen over 28% from its low of $25.32 on May 7th. This fact alone should have some bears licking their chops in anticipation of a healthy dose of profit-taking. We think CLS is an attractive short because in addition to being overbought, the stock also faces resistance at the 50-dma ($32.80). This matches up nicely with the top of the stock's descending regression channel. Traders targeting a decline could do so with relatively little risk by placing a stop slightly above the 50-dma. If CLS keeps moving higher we'd look for a pullback near $34, which acted as resistance in April. This level is reinforced by the 50% retracement from the September lows to December highs. --- Maxim Integrated Products - MXIM - close: 50.76 change: +0.02 WHAT TO WATCH: Is the SOX.X (semiconductor index) headed back to 600? We're not sure, but MXIM could be a good way to take advantage of continued bullishness in the sector. The stock looks compelling on a technical basis: Although it only finished with a fractional gain today, MXIM rose to a near-term high in intraday trading and closed above the 200-dma. The move over $52 pushed the stock above bearish resistance on the p-n-f chart. Furthermore, the MACD is signaling a bullish crossover. This bodes well for a retest of the $58 resistance level. Watch for a move over today's high of $52.97 (just above the 50-dma) to offer a possible entry point. --- RF Micro Devices - RFMD - close: 18.18 change: -0.22 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of RFMD joined the SOX.X is a steep rally over the past week. Maybe "steep" is an understatement; the stock has risen nearly 25% from its May 7th lows. That's a lot of gains for bulls to digest, but we think RFMD may consolidate for a few sessions and continue higher. The stock has risen above bearish p-n-f resistance at $18.00. This often signals the beginning of a longer-term uptrend. Looking at a daily chart, you can see that RFMD has briefly spiked higher three times this year. Of course, there's no guarantee that this will happen again, but it does show that the stock has the potential to post large gains in a small amount of time. Aggressive traders could target entries at current levels, while others may want to wait for several days of consolidation near the $18 level. If RFMD does spike higher once again, we'd be looking for a move to $21- $22. ============= MORE TO WATCH ============= Dole Foods Inc. - DOL - close: 33.43 change: +0.03 DOL has been stair-stepping its way higher for several months and has spent the last two months consolidating under resistance at $34. A close over this level could portend another leg higher. --- Charter One Financial - CF - close: 35.20 change: +0.80 CF recently bounced from its 50-dma and has moved higher on rising volume. The MACD and daily stochastics both look bullish, which leads us to believe that CF will break over resistance at $36. Traders can consider long entries on a close above this level. =============== Play-of-the-Day (BULLISH) =============== Mohawk Industries - MHK - close: 66.91 change: +0.76 stop: 62.98 Company Description: Mohawk is a leading supplier of flooring for both residential and commercial applications and a producer of woven and tufted broadloom carpet, rugs and ceramic tile. The Company designs, manufactures and markets premier carpet brand names and a broad line of home products including rugs, throws, pillows and bedspreads. (source: company press release) - ORIGINAL WRITE UP: May 3rd, 2002 - Why We Like It: The continued rise in homebuilding-related issues has made it a bit difficult to find a long play in the sector. Sure, there are plenty of stocks with strong charts. The problem is finding one that doesn't look overbought. Fortunately, our scan of stocks in the group turned up MHK. The company is not a homebuilder per-se, but as a manufacturer of carpets, rugs and flooring, it stands to benefit from a strong sector. Business is brisk, as evidenced by the April 15th earnings announcement that featured an EPS of 77 cents/share, versus the estimate of 67 cents. Sales were up 12% from the year-ago total. MHK is displaying technical strength as well. Shares have trended higher since the earnings announcement and are within striking distance of the all-time high at $68.10. The daily stochastics are rising higher with room to move, which indicates that the stock may break over this level. The DJUSHB home construction index is at the midline of its ascending channel. Traders looking to confirm bullish sector sentiment may want to wait for the index to continue higher before going long. We're starting this play with a stop at $62.98, below the 50-dma. This would be a 5% move from the current price. We do expect potential resistance at $70 but the top of the channel should be close to $75, which is our initial profit target. - Most Recent Update: May 14th, 2002 - This morning's strong retail numbers kicked off a triple-digit rally in the Dow Jones that spread to the homebuilding sector. The DJUSHB home construction index bounced vigorously from the bottom of its ascending channel and finished the day with a 4.5% gain, while MHK moved higher with the sector and tacked on 3%. In the short-term, we're expecting the DJUSHB to retest the midline of its channel near 400 and propel MHK to a test of resistance at $68. A move over this level could clear the way for a move to psychological resistance at $70 and hopefully beyond. - Play-of-the-Day Comments: May 15th, 2002 - Stronger-than-expected retail sales numbers sent the retail sector rocketing higher yesterday. In this uncertain economic climate, investors lend a lot of credence to this sort of "boring" economic data. Keeping with this theme, we think MHK could receive a substantial boost from tomorrow's release of housing starts data. An upside surprise could be the catalyst that MHK needs to breakout to all-time highs. Besides, the bearish reaction to the inflationary CPI data today hit several of the homebuilding stocks pretty good. Bulls might decide to buy the dip tomorrow. Of course in MHK's case it could be by the breakout. If the market reaction is positive (the numbers are released before the bell), aggressive traders can consider entries on a move above the all-time high of $68.45. However, be aware that bears may defend psychological resistance at $70. Picked on May 3rd at $66.30 Gain since picked: +0.61 Earnings Date 04/15/02 (confirmed) ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 05-10-2002 section 2 of 3 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/e10b_2.asp ================================================================= In section two: Net Bulls New Bearish Plays: BRCM, QCOM, VZ Bullish Play Updates: SNE, TTN Bearish Play Updates: BMC, TBH Stock Bottom / Active Trader New Bearish Plays: DHR, HD, TSG Bullish Play Updates: RKY, DCX, GR, LTR, MHK, TBL Bearish Play Updates: IGT High Risk/Reward New Bullish Plays: VRSN Bearish Play Updates: DOX Closed Bullish Play: AMAT ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== =============== NB New Plays =============== ----------------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- Broadcom - BRCM - close: 24.54 change: -1.24 stop: *see text* Company Description: Broadcom Corporation is the leading provider of highly integrated silicon solutions that enable broadband communications and networking of voice, video and data services. Using proprietary technologies and advanced design methodologies, Broadcom designs, develops and supplies complete system-on-a-chip solutions and related hardware and software applications for every major broadband communications market. Broadcom's diverse product portfolio includes solutions for digital cable set-top boxes and cable modems; high-speed local, metropolitan and wide area and optical networks; home networking; Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP); carrier access; residential broadband gateways; direct broadcast satellite and terrestrial digital broadcast; digital subscriber lines (DSL); wireless communications; SystemI/O(TM) server solutions; and broadband network processors. These technologies and products support our core mission: Connecting everything(TM). (source: company press release) Why We Like It: It has not been the best week for BRCM shareholders. Despite an already weak semiconductor sector and a sinking Nasdaq market, BRCM was hammered even harder on company specific news that hit last Tuesday. Shares dropped about 13% when Motorola (NYSE:MOT), a big customer of BRCM's, announced it would chose Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) to supply components for MOT's next- generation cable modem. Not only is BRCM losing the sale but it's another instance where competition is creeping in on BRCM's market share. The SOX and BRCM did bounce on Wednesday with the rest of the market's reaction to CSCO's news, but like the markets, BRCM has given back all of its gains. The recent closes under the $25.00 level are a breakdown of the 80.1% retracement level (using September lows to January highs). With this support level broken, bears could argue that BRCM will be bent on re- testing the September lows near $18.50. We are going to aim for a move to the $20 level, which could turn out to be psychological support for the stock. You may also want to keep an eye on the SOX but we feel it could test the 450 level again soon (closed at 503). While we like BRCM at current levels and wouldn't mind shorting it on a failed rally near $27.00 we are going to use a trigger point to go short on the stock. By waiting for BRCM to fall below the $24.50 mark, we can catch it on the way down. Our trigger will be $24.49 and we'll exit the play if shares reach $20.25 or lower. Once we are triggered we're going to begin with a stop loss at $27.01, just over the 10% level (above our entry point) but we'll quickly lower the stop once shares confirm their trajectory towards the $20 mark with a close under $24.00. Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/17/02 (confirmed) --- QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 26.80 change: -1.54 stop: 30.01 Company Description: QUALCOMM Incorporated is a leader in developing and delivering innovative digital wireless communications products and services based on the Company's CDMA digital technology. The Company's business areas include CDMA chipsets and system software; technology licensing; the Binary Runtime Environment for Wireless(TM) (BREW(TM)) applications platform; QChat(TM) push-to- talk technology; Eudora® e-mail software; digital cinema systems; and satellite-based systems including portions of the Globalstar(TM) system and wireless fleet management systems, OmniTRACS® and OmniExpress®. QUALCOMM owns patents that are essential to all of the CDMA wireless telecommunications standards that have been adopted or proposed for adoption by standards-setting bodies worldwide. QUALCOMM has licensed its essential CDMA patent portfolio to more than 100 telecommunications equipment manufacturers worldwide. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: Does the term better late than never still work? We came so close to playing QCOM short when it failed at the $40 level in mid-April but chose not to. Watching it fall to the $25 area was painful. Those who acted on our suggestion in the Watch List in April are probably pleased with their results. The recent spike higher in shares of QCOM due to the short-lived market rally on Wednesday have created another failed rally at the $30 level. The stock has fallen back under the $27 mark and we feel it could be on its way to the $20 level. QCOM is infamous for its volatility so we're playing this one in the high-risk/reward section of the play list. We feel it's also a HR play because we have to use a wide stop with overhead resistance up at the $30 area (or $29.50). We are going to open the play at current levels but it wouldn't hurt to consider shorts on failed rallies near $28.00. We'll start the play with a stop at $30.01 but you could probably squeeze that to the $29.50 level, which is near the recent high on Wednesday. We're aiming for a drop to the $20 area but will keep our options open at this time. With the big dip in the IXTCX on Friday and the lack of strength in the broader markets we don't see a lot of fear by the bears in this stock despite its oversold condition. Picked on May 10th at $26.80 Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/24/02 (confirmed) --- Verizon Comm. - VZ - close: 39.35 change: -0.80 stop: *text* Company Description: Verizon Communications is one of the world's leading providers of communications services. Verizon companies are the largest providers of wireline and wireless communications in the United States, with 133.8 million access line equivalents and approximately 29.6 million wireless customers. Verizon is also the largest directory publisher in the world. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: Has the telecom sector bottomed out yet? We think not. These days just about anything related to telecommunications is being sold with reckless abandon. For visual evidence of the sector weakness, take a look at the charts of WCOM, Q, QCOM, T, NOK, SBC, and AT...to name a few. We strongly considered the latter two stocks as short plays, but ultimately decided on VZ because it has no underlying historical support and is threatening to break below its all-time low. Although VZ is currently at the bottom of its long-term descending channel (dating back to summer 2001), we believe continued negative sector news will cause the stock to break lower. Technically speaking, a move below $38 will create a double-bottom p-n-f sell signal. We are going to use a trigger to go "short" this play with a move below the current 52-week low near 38.62. With the MACD trying to rebound, we want to make sure that VZ breaks below this level before going short, so our entry price is set at $38.61. We'll open the play if shares trade at or below this level. Because we're gaming a breakdown on a stock that is already oversold, we'll use a fairly tight stop at $40.06. More aggressive traders may want to use a stop above recent highs of $42.00, which has been overhead resistance for three weeks. P-n-f chartists may point out that VZ is currently above its bearish vertical count at $38. This is a valid concern, but the premise of this play is that sector-wide bearishness will drag the stock below all levels of support. Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/23/02 (confirmed) =============== NB Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Sony - SNE - close: 54.75 change: +0.15 stop: 51.25 On Thursday, Sony's chief financial officer predicted growth across all of its diversified entertainment businesses, with the globally popular PlayStation taking part of the lead. "We expect that all segments will improve operating profits this year," Sony's CFO Teruhisa Tokunaka said at a corporate strategy meeting in Tokyo. Sony's stock price continues to amble upward and we remain comfortable with its rising, positive technical indicators. The 50-dma is rising consistently and currently rests at 53.25; we expect this moving average to serve as support in any pullback the stock may face in coming days. Picked on April 4th at $53.01 Gain since picked: +1.74 Earnings Date 04/25/02 (confirmed) --- Titan Corporation - TTN - cls: 22.27 chg: -0.76 stop: 21.99 As summarized in recent updates, Titan has enjoyed several new contracts and this has helped the defense contractor's stock remain stable relative to this week's wild undulations in the broader market. Our perspective on this stock, and the defense sector in general, is that their stock prices will continue to be supported by a national policy which encourages enhanced national defense--and the expenditures which go along with such a policy. The chink in our bullish armor is that the overall markets are tanking and investors may be inclined to sell their winners to protect capital. We don't see any other reason for the 3.3% decline on Friday other than traders taking money off the table ahead of the weekend. The session-long sell-off paused midday only to return with gusto into the last two hours of trading. This isn't a very good sign for TTN on Monday and odds are we might be stopped out if the markets open down. More aggressive traders could watch for a bounce down at the 200-dma, well below our stop, for future bullish trades. Picked on April 15th at $21.26 Change since picked: +1.01 Earnings Date 04/25/02 (confirmed) -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- BMC Software - BMC - close: 15.98 change: -0.47 stop: 16.53 *new* On Thursday we said we were looking for our new short position in BMC to decline to the 14.90 region. We started this trade with a nice one day drop of 3%, and are looking for more downside in coming days. Although the broader market--and particularly the tech stocks--have been unable to keep their considerable gains from earlier in the trading week, we recognize that any significant, positive news event could turn tech stocks into roman candles again. IBM executives will meet with analysts on Wednesday, and that meeting has the potential to do the same thing Cisco did this week--ignite tech stocks, giving many a one day boost of 10% or more. With this in mind, we are lowering our buy stop to a near-breakeven level of 16.53. Picked on May 9th at $16.45 Gain since picked: +0.47 Earnings Date 05/06/02 (confirmed) --- Telecom Brasil - TBH - close: 27.70 change: -0.05 stop: 29.40 Our telecom short is behaving like a doll tossed out a sky scraper window. You can almost hear the shrieks of on-lookers below; we suspect that's the way current TBH shareholders feel. With the telecom sector as one of the major anchors for the markets on Friday (as witnessed by the 4.2% decline in the IXTCX), we were a bit surprised to see TBH only lose 5 cents. Shares of the ADR holder did hit a new intraday relative low but an afternoon bounce erased most of the losses. We still feel the sector is heading lower but another bounce for TBH may be in the cards. We've noticed that shares have been failing at the 5-dma during the last couple of weeks so don't be surprised to see TBH rally to the $28.50 or $28.65 level before rolling over again. If you're looking for new entries that could be the area to watch (assuming it has the strength to get back over the $28 level). The MACD is still sinking and the RSI looks like it could be aiming for January lows. More conservative traders might want to consider protecting 5% of our 7% gain with a stop at $28.32. We're going to leave our stop at $29.40 for the moment as we see where TBH is likely to re-establish overhead resistance. As we noted in the Thursday update, we're looking for a move to the $26.50 level to cover for a profit. Some traders may want to just let the stock run and keep the short open until your stopped out, but be sure to continue to cinch down that stop and protect your gains. We'll move our stop lower once we have a 10% gain in the play. Picked on May 3rd at $29.83. Gain since picked: +2.13 Earnings Date N/A ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== ----------------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- Danaher Corp. - DHR - close: 69.89 change: -0.68 stop: *see text* Company Description: Danaher Corporation manufactures scientific and technical tools used by industry. Some of the company's subsidiary businesses include Mechanics Hand Tools, Jacobs Chuck Manufacturing Company, Delta Consolidated Industries, Jacobs Vehicle Systems, Hennessy Industries and Joslyn Manufacturing Company. Why We Like It: Since early March, 2002, Danaher Corporation's stock has been in a meandering consolidation. Until this past week, DHR had managed to remain above its rising 50-dma. Now, however, prices have begun trading below this key indicator. Perhaps as important are these technical observations: 1) the weekly RSI has, within the past 2 weeks, broken a rising trend line which had been in place since September, 2001 and 2) the weekly Stochastic Oscillator has turned decidedly downward. Fundamentally, Danaher reported a first quarter loss on April 18 when it released its earnings report. The loss was attributable to a one time, non-reoccurring charge for goodwill. At the time that earnings were reported, the company said that while it was comfortable with analysts estimates for its second quarter, it also acknowledged that its European business remained sluggish, and that they viewed the US market as fragile. Since releasing these earnings the stock has been in a persistent decline, and we expect to take advantage of this growing price weakness by shorting the stock. Since DHR just began trading below its 50- dma this week, we might see the stock attempt to rebound slightly in the coming week. For this reason, our strategy will be to short DHR only if it breaks below 69.40, its low for the past four weeks. Our buy stop will be placed at 73.01, which is just above near term resistance, and the 50-dma. Over the next few weeks, we'll be expecting DHR to decline to the low 60's near its 200-dma at which time we will expect to close out the trade. A profit target in the low 60's will coincide with the bullish PnF support line currently near $62. Bears will need to keep in mind that the bulls could try and defend the stock price at the $65 support level. Picked on May xxth at $xx.xx <-- see text Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/18/02 (confirmed) --- Home Depot - HD - close: 45.50 change: -0.65 stop: 47.51 Company Description: Home Depot, Inc. is a major North American home improvement retailer operating over 1,100 stores. Why We Like It: Since December 5th, 2001, HD has been in a lengthy sideways consolidation, trading between 47.00-52.75. This week, though, HD began to break out of this consolidation, to the downside. The stock now faces a resistance region (46.50-48.80) which should create considerable difficulty for the shares in coming weeks. We noticed an article near the first of the month that discussed some cautiousness by analysts on whether HD can actually achieve its stated targets of 15% to 18% growth from 2002 to 2004. Especially with a reduction in store openings and some suspect softer growth for the industry as a whole. These concerns have been taking shape as a somewhat sloppy head and shoulders top has now formed on the daily and weekly price chart; these factors have encouraged us to short HD at current levels (45.50). With that said, we'd certainly find it preferable if we could short HD at a slightly higher level, perhaps a failed rally at the 200-dma (near 46.50), if HD were advance on Monday morning. Once in this short position, traders will want to use at buy stop of 47.51, which is just above HD's near term resistance and highs of the last two weeks. More conservative traders may want to consider using a trigger point to go short just under the recent lows near $44.50. We are targeting a move to the $40 level but expect potential support by the bulls near $42.50. If you take any position in this stock, be sure to remember that HD will report its quarterly earnings on May 21st. Picked on May 10th at $45.50 Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 05/21/02 (confirmed) --- Sabre Holdings Corp - TSG - cls: 40.13 chg: -0.41 stop: *see text* Company Description: Sabre is the leading provider of technology, distribution and marketing services for the travel industry. Headquartered in Southlake, Texas, in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, the company has approximately 7,000 employees in 45 countries. Sabre reported 2001 revenues of $2.1 billion. Sabre owns Travelocity.com, the most popular travel site on the Web, and GetThere, the world's leading provider of Web-based travel reservation systems for corporations and travel suppliers. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: The multi-month blossom that has graced the portfolios of online travel investors in shares of ROOM, EXPE and TSG appears to be wilting. Not only has the sector been hit by news that airlines and car rental companies are cutting their commissions to travel agencies but word of a price war has some investors looking for the exits. The change in landscape with the no commission development has lead to large players like EXPE, ROOM and TSG into negotiating "marketing fees" with the major airlines to replace this loss of commission revenue. While this news has been out for a while, the recent drop in share price across the major players is due to a potential price war with two of the major hotel chains. Six Continents PLC and Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide have been making noise that they will soon announce plans to beat the rates consumers might find through online travel sites. Investor reaction was negative as some panicked to sell their winners and lock in gains. EXPE, ROOM and TSG have are all down 10% to 15% from their recent highs. Analysts were quick to call the share price declines an over reaction but fears may be growing that a price war could turn the industry into a cutthroat competition. We feel that there could be a lot more downside to go. These stocks have all seen very healthy runs. Before the recent profit taking, shares of EXPE were up over 300% from their September lows, ROOM was up about 250% and TSG had doubled. We're going to pick on TSG as the stock has obviously under performed its peers. With shares of TSG hovering at its 200-dma, we're going to use a trigger point to go short the stock on a breakdown. Our official trigger to go short will be $39.74. Once we are triggered we'll start the play with a stop loss at $42.01 but we'll be quick to tighten the stop as the play progresses in our favor. Our initial target is the $35 level but shares could certainly fall farther. Please take note that the PnF chart shows both ROOM and TSG currently trading at their bullish support line. Shares might bounce from here and this is a big reason why we are using a trigger, but more conservative traders may want to use a trigger at $37.98 or something close the $38 level to confirm a break in the PnF support for TSG. Picked on May Xth at $xx.xx <-- see text Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/18/02 (confirmed) =============== AT Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Adolph Coors - RKY - close: 66.47 change: +0.27 stop: 63.89 RKY has had a recent tendency to fade the Dow, and today was no exception. Shares traded an inside day and finished with a gain of 27 cents. Next week we'll be looking for RKY to trade over $68 and revisit the near-term high at $69.25. Conservative traders still targeting entries could use a stop just under the 50-dma at $65.18, and use today's high of $66.62 as an action point to go long. However, be forewarned that rival BUD has just closed its third consecutive day under its 50-dma and looks weak. BUD might be the weight that is slowing RKY down. Picked on May 2nd at $68.36 Gain since picked: -1.89 Earnings Date 04/25/02 (confirmed) --- DaimlerChrysler - DCX - close: 47.55 change: -0.20 stop: 44.66 Strikes in the German metals and electronics industries continued Friday; they are expected to widen next week. As we have reported previously, these strikes may have some effect on German-based auto maker DaimlerChrysler. Overall, though, the technical pattern on this stock does not confirm any negative influence on DCX's stock price from the strikes, and we remain optimistic about this big cap long position. One of the observations we've recently made is that volume expands on up days and contracts on down downs. This suggests that buyers are willing to acquire the stock on strength, while a decline in DCX's price produces only modest selling. This, obviously, is good for our bullish bias. Picked on May 6th at $46.50 Gain since picked: +1.05 Earnings Date 02/20/02 (confirmed) --- Goodrich Corp - GR - close: 32.00 change: -0.33 stop: 30.97 After starting the day higher, Goodrich finished lower today, settling right on top of its 50-dma. Last night we discussed the need for GR to move above, and remain above, 32.35, which thus far it has been unable to do. With today's close riding the 50- dma, we'll be watching Goodrich early next week to see if it can use this dma--which coincides with a support region in and around 31.85--as a good point from which to continue working higher. One point that traders may want to take note of was the late news story about GR cutting 1000 jobs with plans to cut more. We are playing GR mainly due to their defense-division but they are still suffering from a slow down in the commercial aircraft market. It's possible that investors might see the job cuts as a way to keep earnings inline with expectations. Picked on May 3rd at $31.97 Gain since picked: +0.03 Earnings Date 04/24/02 (confirmed) --- Loews Corporation - LTR - cls: 59.13 chg: -0.58 stop: 58.45 Loews moved down about 1% today, following the negative lead of the broader indexes. Today was the first day since April 4th that the stock closed under the 50-dma. We said yesterday that we would be watching to see if the stock is able to use the 50- dma as a rebound point, and this will continue to be the case with today's modest break of the 50-dma. Please remember, too, that we suggested any new positions in this stock be deferred until it moves back above the 60.00 level. Picked on May 7th at $60.50 Gain since picked: -1.37 Earnings Date 05/09/02 (confirmed) ---- Mohawk Industries - MHK - close: 64.24 change: -0.12 stop: 62.98 Fed Chairman Greenspan chimed in today with some comments on the homebuilding sector. Speaking at a Chicago banking conference, Big Al opined that the housing market should continue to see demand, and that the sector has not yet formed a bubble. One might expect that the group would trade higher on the comments, but the DJUSHB home construction index actually dropped over 3%. Today's fractional decline in shares of MHK is encouraging, considering how it outperformed both its sector and the broader market. Of course, MHK isn't a homebuilder per se, but still tends to move with the group. Also encouraging was the successful test of the 50-dma at $63.44. Lower-risk entries can be considered at current levels if the sector rebounds next week. Watch for the DJUHSB to bounce from its own 50-dma (currently at 362), which coincides with the bottom of its ascending regression channel. Picked on May 3rd at $66.30 Gain since picked: -2.06 Earnings Date 04/15/02 (confirmed) --- Smith Intl - SII - close: 74.19 change: +2.22 stop: 68.95 The OSX.X oil service index was a beacon of strength on Friday, finishing with a 2.3% gain despite a 97-point decline in the Dow Jones. SII reflected the strong sector and tacked on nearly 3.1%. Shares have been strong since briefly trading under the $70 level on Tuesday and are now within striking distance of the 10-month high at $75.65. We think continued sector strength will push the stock above this level. Aggressive short-term traders can continue to target a move over $75.65, but upside potential is somewhat limited. We're anticipating that SII will eventually find resistance at the top of its ascending channel near $80. Picked on April 26th at $71.29 Gain since picked: +2.90 Earnings Date 05/02/02 (confirmed) --- Timberland Company - TBL - cls: 41.29 chg: -0.91 stop: 39.95 Retailers were roughed up today, with the RLX.X (S&P Retail Index) dropping just about 2%. Our long position in Timberland followed the RLX.X's lead, declining slightly over 2%. Like some of our other long positions, TBL closed right on top of its 50- dma; our expectation is that this will serve as a springboard for a rebound next week but traders may want to wait and see this bounce begin before committing to any new positions. Picked on May 3rd at $41.89 Gain since picked: -0.60 Earnings Date 04/18/02 (confirmed) -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 61.87 change: +0.15 stop: *text* Shares of IGT spent Friday's session trading in a narrow range between $61.60-$62.39. The stock closed with a fractional gain, which is surprising when one considers that sector leaders MGM and HET finished solidly in the red. However, bears can take heart in the fact that shares were unable to trade over Thursday's high and sold off sharply in the last 90 minutes of trading (considering the tight range, of course). Since IGT did not trade at or below our action point of $61.24, this play is not triggered. We suspect that the stock will build downside momentum once it releases from the top of its channel. Our trigger is an attempt to ensure that this occurs before we actually open the play. Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/23/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section ================================================================== =============== HR New Plays =============== ---------------- New Bullish Play ---------------- VeriSign - VRSN - cls: 10.07 chg: +0.22 stop: *text* Company Description: VeriSign, Inc. is a provider of digital security services, enabling internet business to ensure that their digital commerce and communications are safe. VeriSign also provides web business with the registration of their dot-com names. Why We Like It: A few nights ago we profiled VeriSign in our Watch List. At that time, we pointed out that the stock had suffered a horrific 45% drop in price on April 25th after its earnings report and a subsequent series of harsh remarks from the brokerage community. The rapid, sharp "fast move region" left on our technical charts when the stock plunged that day is the reason we find VRSN attractive as a high-risk long position. Stock prices have a tendency to rebound quickly when they enter a previous downward "gap" or "fast move" area. VRSN will only be attractive to us as a long position if it actually begins moving back into the huge fast move region it left on April 25th; for our trading purposes this fast move region begins at 10.50 and may end at $12.05. Our strategy to trade VRSN will be to buy it above 10.50, and use a tight sell stop of 9.96. If this play is triggered, traders should be prepared to take profits around 11.90--before it hits the 12.05 resistance area--unless it simply slices through this region with no evidence it is ready to stall. The reason we have added this qualification is this: if VRSN can break above $12.05 it could trade to the top of the gap near $15.00 rather quickly-- perhaps within just a few days. Finally, remember this: a long position in VRSN represents a high risk, high reward play that needs to be traded with unwavering discipline. You need to adhere to your own stop loss strategy. The number of shareholder lawsuits being pointed at VRSN should be evidence enough that the "fundamentals" aren't worth investing in this stock. We're merely trying to trade an oversold bounce. Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/25/02 (confirmed) =============== HR Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Amdocs Ltd - DOX - close: 16.74 change: -0.21 stop: 17.51 *new* DOX might be showing sings of bottoming out. Although shares lost 1.2% today, this was better than the 3.2% loss turned in by the GSO.X software index. We're not surprised that the $16.50 level is putting up resistance for the bears since shares bounced there a couple of days ago. However, we continue to see lower highs for the stock, which is a bearish indicator of sellers leaning on it. We're going to take advantage of this lower highs pattern and lower our stop to just above Friday's high. This puts our new stop loss at $17.51. The next couple of sessions could be important for DOX. Will the GSO.X find support at the September lows and rebound? Will DOX find true support at $16.00? We are targeting an exit near the $15.00 level, which should be psychological support for the share price. Our official exit target will be $15.25 and if shares trade at that price or lower we'll close the play (assuming we're not stopped out first at $17.51). Our new stop should protect a gain of 9%. Picked on May 3rd at $19.25 Gain since picked +2.51 Earnings Date 04/23/02 (confirmed) =============== HR Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bullish Plays -------------------- Applied Materials - AMAT - cls: 23.70 chg: -1.56 stop: 24.90 Some profit-taking in the SOX.X was expected after Wednesday's huge short-covering rally, but sector bulls are probably getting a little hot under the collar after the lack of follow through and subsequent retracement of nearly all Wednesday's gains. AMAT moved lower with the group today and has begun to fill the gap created Wednesday morning. Our stop-loss of $24.90 was violated early in the session, which closed this play for a gain of $1.91, or 8.3%. Due to its relative strength and p-n-f chart (shares are still above bullish support) we continue to like AMAT as a way to go long on the chip sector. We suspect that the stock may completely fill the aforementioned gap and head higher from there. However, AMAT will be hard-pressed to rally if the NASDAQ continues to decline. For any traders still considering positions, don't forget that AMAT is expected to announce earnings on Tuesday, May 14th. Any negative comments could tank the whole sector and likely the Nasdaq (if it wasn't falling already). Picked on May 2nd at $22.99 Change since picked: +1.91 Earnings Date 05/14/02 (confirmed) ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 05-10-2002 Section 3 of 3 Copyright © 2002, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/e10b_3.asp ================================================================= In section three: Market Watch for Week of May 13th - Major Earnings - Stock Splits - Economic Reports Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= ================================================== Market Watch for the week of May 13th ================================================== ------------------------ Major Earnings This Week ------------------------ Symbol Company Date Comment EPS Est ------------------------- MONDAY ------------------------------- VNT C. A. Nac Tele de Ven Mon, May 13 After the Bell N/A FUN Cedar Fair LP Mon, May 13 After the Bell -0.59 CKC Collins&Aikman Mon, May 13 -----N/A----- 0.01 DQE DQE Mon, May 13 After the Bell 0.22 EN Enel S.p.A. Mon, May 13 Before the Bell N/A HC Hanover Compressor Mon, May 13 Before the Bell 0.23 MAC Macerich Company Mon, May 13 Before the Bell 0.70 MAY May Department Store Mon, May 13 -----N/A----- 0.31 MCCC Mediacom Mon, May 13 Before the Bell -0.65 TEM Telefonica Moviles Mon, May 13 Before the Bell N/A TM Toyota Motor Mon, May 13 -----N/A----- N/A VAL Valspar Mon, May 13 -----N/A----- 0.65 WTW Weight Watchers Int Mon, May 13 After the Bell 0.28 ------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------ ANF Abercrombie&Fitch Tue, May 14 -----N/A----- 0.21 ROS AO Rostelecom Tue, May 14 Before the Bell N/A AMAT Applied Materials Tue, May 14 After the Bell 0.02 BEAS BEA Systems Tue, May 14 -----N/A----- 0.05 BNG Benetton Group Tue, May 14 Before the Bell N/A CA Computer Ass. Int Tue, May 14 After the Bell -0.04 CSC Computer Sciences Corp Tue, May 14 After the Bell 0.77 DE Deere & Company Tue, May 14 Before the Bell 0.43 FIA Fiat SPA ADR Tue, May 14 -----N/A----- N/A FOX Fox Entertainment Tue, May 14 Before the Bell 0.04 JCP JC Penney Tue, May 14 -----N/A----- 0.24 KEP Korea Electric Power Tue, May 14 -----N/A----- N/A NTAP Network Appliance Tue, May 14 After the Bell 0.04 NWS News Corporation Tue, May 14 Before the Bell 0.15 PUB PUBLICIS Groupe SA Tue, May 14 -----N/A----- N/A IMI SanPaolo IMI SpA Tue, May 14 -----N/A----- N/A TRK Speedway Motorsports Tue, May 14 Before the Bell 0.39 TIF Tiffany Co Tue, May 14 Before the Bell 0.22 TJX TJX Companies Tue, May 14 Before the Bell 0.26 UBS UBS AG Tue, May 14 -----N/A----- N/A ZLC Zale Corporation Tue, May 14 Before the Bell 0.2 ----------------------- WEDNESDAY ----------------------------- ACXM Acxiom Wed, May 15 After the Bell 0.15 ADVP AdvancePCS Wed, May 15 After the Bell 0.33 ANN AnnTaylor Stores Wed, May 15 After the Bell 0.63 BOX BOC Group PLC Wed, May 15 -----N/A----- N/A BRCD Brocade Comm Systems Wed, May 15 After the Bell 0.06 CWP Cable&Wireless Plc Wed, May 15 Before the Bell N/A CPB Campbell Soup Wed, May 15 -----N/A----- 0.23 CZN Citizens Comm Co. Wed, May 15 -----N/A----- -0.02 SID Companhia Sideru Nac Wed, May 15 Before the Bell 0.16 CSR Credit Suisse Group Wed, May 15 12:00 am ET N/A FD Federated Department St Wed, May 15 -----N/A----- 0.35 GMST Gemstar-TV Guide Int Wed, May 15 After the Bell 0.14 HPC Hercules Wed, May 15 Before the Bell 0.16 INTU Intuit Wed, May 15 After the Bell 0.72 JHX James Hardie Industries Wed, May 15 -----N/A----- N/A MTA MATÁV Wed, May 15 -----N/A----- N/A NBG National Bank of Greece Wed, May 15 -----N/A----- N/A NEM Newmont Mining Wed, May 15 Before the Bell 0.12 JWN Nordstrom Wed, May 15 After the Bell 0.22 PSS Payless ShoeSources Wed, May 15 Before the Bell 1.05 PNX The Phoenix Companies Wed, May 15 Before the Bell 0.17 ------------------------- THURSDAY ----------------------------- ATK Alliant Techsystems Thu, May 09 Before the Bell 1.02 A Agilent Technologies Thu, May 16 -----N/A----- -0.23 AZ ALLIANZ AG Thu, May 16 Before the Bell N/A AEOS American Eagle Outfit Thu, May 16 -----N/A----- 0.16 ADI Analog Devices Thu, May 16 After the Bell 0.12 ADSK Autodesk Thu, May 16 After the Bell 0.15 IRE Bank of Ireland Thu, May 16 Before the Bell N/A BTY British Telecomm PLC Thu, May 16 -----N/A----- N/A DELL Dell Thu, May 16 After the Bell 0.16 EON E.ON AG Thu, May 16 -----N/A----- N/A HRL Hormel Foods Thu, May 16 Before the Bell 0.22 KSS Kohl`s Thu, May 16 After the Bell 0.29 LE Lands` End Thu, May 16 Before the Bell 0.37 NAV Navistar International Thu, May 16 Before the Bell -0.11 REP Repsol YPF, S.A. Thu, May 16 -----N/A----- N/A TEF Telefonica, S.A. Thu, May 16 03:00 am ET N/A TD Toronto Dominion Bank Thu, May 16 -----N/A----- N/A ------------------------- FRIDAY ------------------------------- SCM Swisscom AG ADS Fri, May 17 -----N/A----- N/A ------------------------------- Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks... ------------------------------- Symbol Company Name Ratio Payable Executable FAST Fastenal 2:1 05/10 05/13 IFNY INFINITY Inc 2:1 05/10 05/13 BBY Best Buy 3:2 05/10 05/13 STZ Constellation Brands 2:1 05/13 05/14 CNTL Cantel Ind 3:2 05/14 05/15 EPD Enterprise Products 2:1 05/15 05/16 FULT Fulton Financial 5:4 05/17 05/20 VLY Valley National Bancorp 5:4 05/17 05/20 ANN Ann Taylor 3:2 05/17 05/20 OCFC OceanFirst Financial 3:2 05/17 05/20 MAXS Maxwell Shoe Co 3:2 05/17 05/20 YORW York Water Co 2:1 05/17 05/20 LLL L-3 Communications 2:1 05/17 05/20 ZRAN Zoran Corp 3:2 05/21 05/22 ANE Alliance Bancorp 11:10 05/21 05/22 DCM NTT DoCoMo 5:1 05/22 05/22 GTK GTECH Holdings Corp. 2:1 05/23 05/24 BKNW Bank of the Northwest 5:4 05/24 05/28 -------------------------- Economic Reports This Week -------------------------- Earnings season rambles on. Next week we'll have key tech stocks like BEA Systems, Applied Materials, Dell and Computer Associates reporting. IBM has an analyst meeting on Wednesday. Mix in Wednesday's CPI report, Thursday's housing numbers and Friday's consumer sentiment and we have the ingredients for another stimulating trading week. Yikes! ============================================================== -For- Monday, 05/13/02 ---------------- None Tuesday, 05/14/02 ----------------- Retail Sales (BB) Apr Forecast: 0.5% Previous: 0.1% Retail Sales ex-auto(BB) Apr Forecast: 0.4% Previous: 0.3% Wednesday, 05/15/02 ------------------- CPI (BB) Apr Forecast: 0.4% Previous: 0.3% Core CPI (BB) Apr Forecast: 0.2% Previous: 0.1% Business Inventories(BB) Mar Forecast: -0.2% Previous: -0.1% Industrial Production(DM)Apr Forecast: 0.4% Previous: 0.7% Capacity Utilization(DM) Apr Forecast: 75.6% Previous: 75.4% Thursday, 05/16/02 ------------------ Initial Claims (BB) 05/11 Forecast: N/A Previous: 411K Housing Starts (BB) Apr Forecast: 1.625M Previous: 1.646M Building Permits (BB) Apr Forecast: 1.650M Previous: 1.630M Philadelphia Fed (DM) May Forecast: 12.0 Previous: 12.3 Friday, 05/17/02 ---------------- Trade Balance (BB) Mar Forecast:-$32.5B Previous: -$31.5B Mich Sentiment-Prel.(DM) May Forecast: 93.0 Previous: 93.0 Definitions: DM= During the Market BB= Before the Bell AB= After the Bell ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Ticker Company Name Close Change -------------------------------- Value Plays With Bullish Signals -------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change PDS Precision Drilling Corp 37.94 +0.60 RGFC R&G Financial Corp 22.56 +0.98 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change OVRL Overland Data Inc 12.96 +1.35 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change IFIN Investors Financial Svcs 76.43 +1.94 AM American Greetings 22.35 +2.90 ABF Airborne Freight Corp 22.17 +1.14 CUB Cubic Corp 30.24 +1.85 ASGN On Assignment Inc 22.36 +1.24 ASA A S A Ltd 37.99 +1.40 JWL Whitehall Jewelers Inc 20.49 +1.04 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change AZN Astrazeneca 44.84 -1.16 DEO Diageo Plc ADS 51.35 -1.51 MAR Marriott Intl. Inc 39.60 -1.05 AGN Allergan Inc 57.01 -4.04 REI Relaint Energy Inc 21.45 -3.15 KG King Pharmaceuticals 26.88 -1.92 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change E Eni Spa ADS 73.75 -1.42 DP Diagnostic Products Corp 46.45 -1.27 IBOC Intl. Bancshares Corp 49.75 -1.47 UNF Unifirst Corp 26.40 -1.55 SAFM Sanderson Farms Inc 26.06 -0.34 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2002 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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