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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 05/14/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 05-14-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Banner Day For Bulls
Market Sentiment: Full Steam Ahead?
Play-of-the-Day:  Boring sector, compelling stock!


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U.S. Market Numbers
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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
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      05-14-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10298.14 +188.48 10304.44 10119.34 1.41 bln   2207/ 984
NASDAQ   1719.05 + 66.51  1722.26  1691.42 2.60 bln   2432/1119
S&P 100   545.42 + 11.84   545.89   534.66   Totals   4639/2103
S&P 500  1097.28 + 22.72  1097.71  1074.56             
RUS 2000  511.40 + 12.00   511.99   499.72
DJ TRANS 2767.70 + 64.73  2770.04  2702.12
VIX        21.89 -  1.62    22.90    20.81
VXN        44.34 -  1.78    46.61    44.01
TRIN        0.57 
PUT/CALL         0.57

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===========
Market Wrap
===========

Banner day for bulls

This morning's stronger than expected retail sales numbers had 
stock surging for a second consecutive session as bulls and bears 
did some aggressive buying.

Bulls most likely were concentrating in those sectors of the 
market that were most impacted from good economic news, while 
bears were hard at work covering some positions just in case 
tonight's after-hours earnings from tech bellwether's Applied 
Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) $26.64 +4.14% or Hewlett-Packard 
(NYSE:HPQ) $20.50 +2.6% held any bullish surprises.

The Dow Industrials (INDU) jumped 188 points (+1.86%) to 10,298 
as traders pushed the Dow back above its 50-day moving average.  
Shares of semiconductor-maker Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) $30.15 +5.71%, 
building products retailer (NYSE:HD) $47.98 +5.17% and discount 
retailer Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) $57.39 +4.26% lead the Dow's gains, 
while consumer products maker Philip Morris (NYSE:MO) $54.91 -
1.48% and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) $61.04 -1.29 along with 
fast food giant McDonalds (NYSE:MCD) $29.98 -1.41% traded lower.

The broader NYSE Composite (NYA.X) gained 9.47 points (+1.65%) to 
582.65 on volume of 1.4 billion shares.  Breadth was positive 
with gainers handily outpacing decliners by a 2 to 1 margin.  One 
of the decliners had just-removed from the S&P 500 Index U.S. 
Airways (NYSE:U) $2.85 -4.36% breaking to a new low on volume of 
13.6 million shares.

The equally broad NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) mounted an impressive 
66.51 point gain (+4.02%) to 1,719.05 as 2,433 stocks advance 
while 1,117 issues decline and 251 stocks finished unchanged.  
Volume on the NASDAQ was heavy at 2.6 billion shares.

NASDAQ-listed WorldCom (NASDAQ:WCOM) $1.24 -13.88% set a single 
day volume record with over 670 million shares traded.  Normally 
this type of volume would be exciting, but considering the stock 
is trading at just $1.24, not all that impressive.  WorldCom 
(WCOM) was removed from the S&P 500 (SPX.X) today due to lack of 
representation.  That's a polite way for Standard & Poor's to 
say, "the stock doesn't matter anymore.

I'm wondering if any S&P 500 Index mutual fund holders are 
viewing today's S&P 500 adjustments with a wrinkled brow?  With 
WorldCom (WCOM) trading at all-time lows, I guess the phrase "buy 
low and sell high" doesn't hold here.

Keep this in mind later in the year if you're thinking about any 
type of S&P 500 indexed mutual fund investment for your 
retirement account at work, a child's college fund or any other 
investment.  Lots of capital losses were REALIZED today by index 
funds.

I apologize if this sounds a little cynical, but two years ago, 
some mutual fund "analysts" were saying that an investor was 
wasting his/her time to buy any mutual fund other than an "index 
mutual fund."  However, it is interesting to note that both of 
the replacements for WCOM and U were trading at substantially 
lower prices 2-years ago in BJ Services (NYSE:BJS) $38.65 +0.75% 
and Apollo Group (NASDAQ:APOL) $37.56.

What investors have learned in the past two years and are still 
learning is "risk" and that it needs to be managed.  For any 
index fund, "market risk" is not necessarily managed in an index 
fund.

In 1999-2000, index funds were all the rage as they handily beat 
other stock mutual funds where the fund managers there were 
actually monitoring and making investment decisions with some 
thought to risk.  Sure, many "value" equity funds under-performed 
the S&P 500 during that time, but boy have some of those value 
funds or individual fund managers that were monitoring and 
controlling "market risk" beating the pants off the S&P 500 in 
the past 18 months.

Speaking of risk!  Membership does have its privileges

I was in a pretty good mood at the end of today's trading 
session, until I saw our play list.

I'll make this point one last time and I surely hope subscribers 
understand what took place, as I don't think all of us at 
PremierInvestor.net fully understood Friday's commentary 
regarding the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) and what it was 
saying about "BEARS are carrying the bulk of the risk in the 
NASDAQ-100."

Bearish traders in Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) $30.68 +5.46% and 
Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) $28.35 +7.42 got their fingers chopped 
today.  BOTH STOCKS comprise the NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X) 1,305.55 
+5.15%.  I think BOTH STOCKS also benefited from a more 
"oversold" NASDAQ-100 market environment where the odds of a 
bearish trade working in the favor of a bearish trader were 
relatively low.

Friday's NASDAQ-100 Bullish % reading on the chart was 28%.  Any 
guess what it is at the end of today's trading?  How about 48%!

NASDAQ-100 Bullish % Index ($BPNDX) - 2% chart




That green addition of X's was today's damage.  Now I'm going to 
drive home the point of risk and how dangerous it could be to be 
"complacent."  I'll tell you this.  Over the years, I've heard it 
all.  "Yes, but...."  There are not "buts" about it.  The bullish 
% is a very good indicator of risk and more times than not, if 
you try and trade against the odds, chances are your going to 
lose.

What "sold" me on point and figure charting was LEARNING from 
past mistakes and reviewing trades.  While many investment sites 
talk only about their successes, it is perhaps most important to 
admit and understand your failures.

I'm not beating on the play picker for the profiled trade in 
Qualcomm (QCOM), but lets at least understand that the NASDAQ-100 
Bullish % was "bull alert" when we tried to short QCOM.

Now, lets look at the point/figure chart and look at the trade 
purely from a risk/reward standpoint.

Question.  At what point would QCOM give a "buy signal" and 
contribute to the NASDAQ-100 bullish %?

Current Answer: $41

Question.  Is the "risk" for a bear to the "buy signal" ($41) 
worth the potential reward of the bearish vertical count?

Current Answer:  No.  The bearish vertical count is $25.  From 
profiled $26.80, risk/reward based on point/figure for bear was 
risking $14.20 to potentially make $1.80.  While bearish vertical 
counts can be exceeded to the downside, what might a market maker 
in the stock be doing with the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % in "bull 
alert" status?  Odds are, buying.

Qualcomm Chart - $1 box




The point and figure chart of Qualcomm (QCOM) was NOT used when 
selecting/profiling QCOM as a bearish candidate.  If it had, then 
perhaps the stock would not have been profiled as bearish.  I 
dare say, the stock would probably NOT have been profiled as 
bullish either.  

Seconds anyone?

We went back for "bearish seconds" in shares of Broadcom 
(NASDAQ:BRCM) $28.35 +7.42% and got served a plate full of crow.  
To be honest here, the ONLY thing that would have kept a bear 
away from a BRCM short Monday morning was the NASDAQ-100 Bullish 
% being bull alert.

Lesson:  Friday night I mentioned we were trying to avoid NASDAQ 
stocks because "tricky market makers" could suck a trader into a 
trade and I wanted to AVOID such a chance.  Maybe I'm just 
paranoid, but Monday morning's early trade just below Friday's 
low of $24.41 looks to a "trick" by market makers.  Heck, we 
tried to protect against just blatantly shorting the stock and 
set a trigger on the trade.  

Lesson:  Sometimes, no matter how well you set up a trade, 
precautions taken, etc. the trade will go against you.  When that 
happens, it is best to cut the trade, take the loss, and move on.

Broadcom Chart - $1 and $0.50 box




I think we took just about every type of precaution in the 
Broadcom (BRCM) bearish trade that we could.  If there was one 
stock in the NASDAQ-100 that looked ready to crater, then BRCM 
was the candidate.  At time of profile, the bearish vertical 
count of $14 gave us the reason to be thinking the stock was 
further vulnerable to lower lows.  $29 was the "first sign of 
trouble" for the bears and we had profiled a stop lower than that 
at $27.01, so profiled risk/reward was risking $2.50 to 
potentially make $10.49.  The point/figure chart risk/reward by 
itself was risking $4.50 to potentially make $10.49.

Now, one thing more I'll mention is how you and I can use trade 
size to control risk in our accounts.  When the NASDAQ-100 
Bullish % is in a column of X like it is/was, then bearish 
traders can still be looking to short some stocks, but by 
establishing just 1/4 or 1/2 positions, then experiences like we 
just had in BRCM and QCOM are still painful and unpleasant, but 
not as unpleasant as full positions.

To further drive home this point, remember recent conversations 
from commentary regarding market makers beginning to square their 
inventories from bearish to "neutral" if not more bullish.

Bearish traders from our play list are not the only ones that 
were holding some BRCM short at today's open.  I'm willing to bet 
that the bulk of institutional market makers are net-short in the 
stock.  However, be very careful if you're a bear that did not 
honor your trading stop at today's open.  While I disliked 
today's experience with BRCM, think about the market makers that 
may be short million's of shares.

You and I don't know what a market makers order flow was like 
today in BRCM.  This is our disadvantage compared to a market 
maker.  He/she has a much better feel for the stock as it relates 
to a "buy" or "sell" side bias in their order flow.

It's not your job

It's not your job to assess risk/reward in the plays we profile, 
but for those that subscribe to also try and learn about 
trading/investing and to measure risk/reward using point and 
figure charting, then hopefully the above commentary helps us 
understand these two stocks and why those trades didn't work out.  
If we learn some reasons "why" something may have happened, then 
we're better prepared in the future to avoid these types of 
trades.

The bull had some bite

In today's 01:00 update, we mentioned that the Morgan Stanley 
Cyclical Index (CYC.X) 587.83 +2.47% was trying to get back on 
upward trend on its bar chart.  At that time the CYC.X was 
trading 585.11 so there was some continued bullishness into the 
close and this to me now has me thinking that today's broader-
market action was "just short covering."  

Despite continued price gains in oil, the Dow Jones Transports 
(TRAN) 2,768.24 +2.39% had a strong day.  The 2.39% gain in the 
TRAN wasn't entirely due to a rebound in the beaten down Airlines 
either as the Airline Index (XAL.X) 82.08 +2.76% didn't 
outperform the TRAN by all that much.  

On the energy front, today's action in the Light, Sweet Crude Oil 
futures (cl02m) surged to an intra day high of $29.45 to close at 
$29.36 (+3.45%).  Traders site there was an unwinding of short 
positions in the crude oil futures market ahead of tonight's 
American Petroleum Institute report on stockpiles.  With good 
reason too.  Tonight's API report showed that U.S. crude stocks 
fell 7.357 million barrels.  U.S. gasoline stocks were up 2.073 
million barrels, while U.S. distillate stocks were up 1.649 
million barrels.  U.S. refinery runs were 92.5% versus 93.2% last 
week.

AMAT beats by a penny

Tonights long-awaited earnings from Applied Materials 
(NASDAQ:AMAT) $26.64 +4.14% had the semiconductor equipment maker 
beating estimates by a penny.  Revenues fell 45.9% year-over-year 
to $1.16 billion, but better than consensus of $1.04 billion. New 
orders of $1.69 billion for the second fiscal quarter of 2002 
increased 51.1% from $1.12 billion for the first quarter of 2002, 
and increased 25% from $1.35 billion for the second quarter of 
2001. The new orders number of $1.69 billion figure for Q2 was 
higher than most estimates looking for $1.3-$1.4 billion; high 
estimate was Salomon Smith Barney at $1.5-$1.6 billion.

In the company's conference call, "Momentum increased in the 
second quarter as customers expanded capacity for their leading-
edge technology applications," said James C. Morgan, chairman and 
chief executive officer. "We are seeing strong demand for our 
advanced products and service solutions as the semiconductor 
industry begins to recover and customers increase their capital 
spending." "While we believe that further improvement in 
worldwide economic conditions is necessary to drive the next 
phase of recovery for the semiconductor industry, we are 
encouraged by the current technology expansions. As applications 
for semiconductors continue to increase and electronics products 
become available to more people around the world, the long-term 
prospects for the semiconductor industry remain strong. With 
industry-leading products and services designed to help our 
customers bring new chips to market more quickly, Applied 
Materials is well-positioned to capitalize on the opportunities 
ahead," concluded Morgan.

In after-hours trading, shares of AMAT were active at the $27.93 
level.


Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

Full Steam Ahead?
By Eric Utley

As it turned out, we were a few days early on the tepidly bullish
market call last Thursday.  But our trusted indicator didn't let
us down.  It was, after all, right again!  The Nasdaq-100
Bullish Percent ($BPNDX) reversal into bull alert mode, below the
30 percent level we might add, last Thursday foreshadowed what
we've seen in the technology sector so far this week.

So where do we go from here?  To me, there appears to be more
upside in this rally from Tuesday's close.  But that's not based
upon Applied Materials' (NASDAQ:AMAT) perceived bullish earnings
report after the bell today.  Rather, I see room to the upside
in key technology measures.  Certainly enough room to trade.  If
you're still bearish on technology, I think you're better off
waiting for a better entry point at higher prices until the bulls
run their course.  

I've seen a significant shift in several of my indicators that
suggests the upside is where the risk lies.  But looking out past
this recent upside, I do see some troubling signs as they relate
to the intermediate term.  Namely the lack of stick in the CBOE
Market Volatility Index (VIX.X).  For whatever reason, investors
continue to believe in every rally that even hints towards carrying
stocks higher over the short term.  What we need to see in order
for a rally to last over the intermediate to long terms is a wall
of worry to form.  That way to monitor for that wall is through
the volatility measures.  I just don't see it yet.

An interesting study of a wall of worry can be found in the Gold
and Silver Index (XAU.X).  Readers can examine the trading of
puts versus calls on the XAU.X, and the relationship with price
in the index, to observe what a wall of worry looks like, and how
an asset's price climbs that wall.

Nevertheless, over the short term, it appears that the easier
direction to trade is the bullish direction.  Until we see a
significant shift in the indicators, most accurately the $BPNDX,
the bears will likely remain on the run, while the bulls will
press ahead.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     : 10298

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10323
 50-dma: 10261
200-dma:  9907

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1097

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1074
 50-dma: 1120
200-dma: 1122

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1306

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1226
 50-dma: 1378
200-dma: 1468


Software ($GSO)

The GSO.X was the best performing sector in today's technology
led rally.  The sector edged past other tech sectors such as
the SOX, BTK, and INX to earn the top spot.  The GSO.X gained
6.40 percent for the day.

Top movers included Novell (NASDAQ:NOVL), Veritas (NASDAQ:VRTS),
Agile Software (NASDAQ:AGIL), Ariba (NASDAQ:ARBA), and BEA
Systems (NASDAQ:BEAS).

52-week High: 246
52-week Low : 112
Current     : 133

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 124
 50-dma: 148
200-dma: 162


Gold ($XAU)

The tech led rally Tuesday caused a shift out of defensive
sectors of the market.  And gold is as defensive as it gets.
The XAU.X earned the day's worst performing sector spot with
its 5.49 percent drop.

Movers to the downside included Meridian Gold (NYSE:MDG),
Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM), Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM),
and Harmony Gold (NASDAQ:HGMCY).

52-week High: 81
52-week Low : 49
Current     : 76

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 78
 50-dma: 71
200-dma: 60

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX imploded Tuesday following Monday's move lower.  The
fear gauge isn't revealing much of that emotion with the return
of the bulls.  There's no wall of worry here.

After kissing its 200-dma for the second time last Friday, the
VXN headed lower on the strength of tech shares during Monday's
session.  Tuesday, the VXN lost another 3.85 percent.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 21.89 -1.62
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 44.34 -1.78

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.57        896,455       508,222
Equity Only    0.49        748,853       364,059
OEX            0.76         44,887        34,322
QQQ            0.66         69,759        45,755

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          62      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    28      + 1     Bull Alert
DOW           53      + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       57      - 1     Bear Alert
S&P 100       53      - 1     Bear Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.15
10-Day Arms Index  1.31
21-Day Arms Index  1.32
55-Day Arms Index  1.25

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      2228            986
NASDAQ    2433           1117

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      139             28
NASDAQ    170             55

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,419
NASDAQ   2,598

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 05/07/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

S&P commercials eased further from their extreme bearish
positioning.  The group added more longs than shorts for a
reduction to their net bearish position.  Small traders backed
off from their most bullish reading by adding more shorts than
longs.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
04/16/02      322,578   411,245   (88,667)  (12.1%)
04/30/02      340,936   421,673   (80,737)  (10.6%)
05/07/02      348,019   422,801   (74,782)   (9.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/16/02      150,529     50,424  100,105     49.8%
04/30/02      153,158     56,372   96,786     46.2%
05/07/02      154,664     59,583   95,081     44.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials stayed on the fence during the most recent
reporting period.  The group's net position is short 814
contracts; not much conviction there.  Same thing with small
traders; they're long a full 68 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
04/16/02       32,024     35,723    (3,699)   (5.5%)
04/30/02       34,591     35,933    (1,342)   (9.7%)
05/07/02       38,338     39,152      (814)   (1.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   7,774  - 12/21/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
04/16/02       12,458    10,572     1,878      8.2% 
04/30/02       12,271    12,703     (432)      1.7%
05/07/02       13,229    13,161        68      0.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders remained flat during the most recent reporting
period.  The group added a few longs and shorts.  Small traders
grew more aggressive on the bearish side by bringing their net
position to short 4,700 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/16/02       19,080    14,267    4,813     14.4% 
04/30/02       17,275    13,341    3,934     12.8%
05/07/02       19,967    14,045    5,922     17.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
04/16/02        5,644     9,448    (3,804)   (25.2%) 
04/30/02        5,813     8,869    (3,056)   (20.8%)
05/07/02        5,124     9,831    (4,707)   (31.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------



===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((new BULLISH play))
===============

Shaw Group - SGR - cls: 34.29 chg: +0.94  stop: *see text* 

Company Description: 
The Shaw Group provides piping systems and engineering to the 
power generation industry.  For the six month period ending in 
February, 2002, the Shaw Group generated $1 billion in sales, 
with a net profit up 68% from its previous period, of $40 
million.   

Why We Like It: 
The Shaw Group may sound like it operates a horrifically boring 
business and, well, that may just be the case.  But we find the 
company and stock attractive at this point in time for a variety 
of fundamental and technical reasons. With a PEG ratio (PE/growth 
rate) of just .68, this stock is trading at a substantial 
discount to its growth rate, and this situation frequently allows 
good upside potential for prices.  Perhaps this was part of the 
reason that Frost Securities initiated coverage of SGR on May 6th 
with a "strong buy" rating.  Most important for us, 
fundamentally, is the recognition that SGR is the kind of stock 
which will generate more revenue, and more profit, in an 
improving economy.  And this is the environment in which we 
believe the US market now finds itself.  At a technical level, 
SGR is demonstrating good price strength in all our major weekly 
momentum indicators like the RSI, Stochastics and MACD.  Our 
strategy will be to buy SGR on a move above the modest resistance 
it has 35.75; once this trade is in play, we'll use a sell stop 
of 31.95.   

Picked on May xxth at $ xx.xx <-see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date         04/15/02 (confirmed)
 





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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 05-14-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/e14b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls     
  Bullish Play Updates:  SNE, TTN
  Bearish Play Updates:  TBH
  Closed Bearish Plays:  BRCM, VZ

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bullish Plays:     SGR
  Bullish Play Updates:  DCX, GR, LTR, MHK, RKY, SII, TBL
  Bearish Play Updates:  DHR, IGT, TSG
  Closed Bearish Plays:  HD

High Risk/Reward
  Closed Bearish Plays:  DOX, QCOM

Split Trader
  Stock Splits
                         FOSI: 3-for-2 split announcement
                         GBTS: 11-for-10 split announcement
  Split Updates
                         GG:   2-for-1 split confirmation

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Sony - SNE - close: 55.60 change: +0.60 stop: 52.99 *new*	

Sony fired the first shot today in what may become a summer price 
war between makers of electronic games.  SNE slashed $100 off the 
price of its popular PlayStation2, front-running an expected move 
by Microsoft to do the same with its Xbox.  Investors greeted 
Sony's competitive strategy positively and its stock enjoyed 
strong buying on the day.  Our technical indicators continue to 
support higher prices.  We have raised our sell stop to 52.99, 
just below a near-term region of support, in order to enhance the 
protection of this position.  

Picked on April 4th at $53.01
Gain since picked:      +2.59
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (confirmed)




---

Titan Corporation - TTN - cls: 22.99 chg: +0.10 stop: 21.99 

Titan is at it again, pulling in new government contracts.  The 
company announced Tuesday that it has received a $26 million  
cost-plus-fixed-fee contract to assist with the Navy's 
implementation of the "Affordable Weapon Systems Program" at the 
Office of Naval Research (ONR). With the Dow hinting that it may 
be ready to begin a serious advance, we like stocks like Titan 
which should be able to ride the strength of the big cap sector, 
as well as that of defense-related stocks.  The technicals on TTN 
remain healthy, with TTN remaining well above its 50-dma and 200-
dma, which are on the verge of crossing--a positive technical 
indicator.  We just wish this stock could finally close above 
that $23 level of resistance!
 
Picked on April 15th at $21.26
Change since picked:     +1.73
Earnings Date         04/25/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Telecom Brasil - TBH - close: 27.30 change: +0.65 stop: 28.35 *new* 

The North American Telecom Index (XTC.X) has been attempting to rebound 
over the last two days. The index was up about 3% today, and our TBH 
short rebounded with the index.  The combined telecom index (IXTCX) is 
also turning in a similar performance and may have put in a bottom (at 
least short-term) at the 130 level.  A move over the 140 level for the 
IXTCX, currently at 138, could mean a bullish reversal is underway.  We 
have elected to lower our buy stop on this short position to $28.35.  
This will protect a 5% profit in this short position and, importantly, 
provide us with the opportunity for further gains should this stock 
head lower after its brief rebound effort.  Our charts are showing 
potential overhead resistance that bears may use to their advantage at 
the 5-dma (near $27.90) and the 50-hour ma (near $28.23).  More 
conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop to protect larger 
gains.  We would not encourage new entries at this time due to broader 
market bullishness although more aggressive traders could look for 
shares to put in another failed rally.  However, we have to admit we 
have a dissenting vote on our analyst team and his is casting his lot 
in with the bears despite the strength in the sector recently.  His 
belief that more weakness is in store for TBH rests on the use of 
modified Bollinger Bands, and Fibonacci retracements. It has been our 
experience that when sharply declining stocks rebound, their first 
bounce will typically stall at 1) their (declining) Bollinger Band ma 
and/or 2) the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Sharp delcines off these 
levels subsequently result in many cases. As of this evening, the ma 
sits at $27.97 and our 38.2% retracement is at $27.63. Since we use a 
5-day ma, rather than the standard 20-day ma, our Bollinger Bands are 
much more sensative--and better able to anticipate short term moves--
than traditional Bollinger Bands. 

Picked on May 3rd at $29.83. 
Gain since picked:    +2.53
Earnings Date           N/A





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Broadcom Corp. - BRCM - close: 28.35 change: +1.96 stop: 27.01

Nasdaq weakness during Monday morning caused our shorting trigger 
of $24.49 to be activated on BRCM.  A rally later in the day, 
which buoyed the chip sector, had BRCM reversing, flying higher 
by over 7%.  Today, the stock simply gapped up at the open--aided 
by a "buy" rating from Pacific Crest Securities--unfortunately 
triggering our 27.01 buy stop, which covered the short in BRCM, 
kicking us out of this trade.  BRCM will probably continue its 
short-term volatility, especially on the heals of AMAT's Tuesday 
evening earnings release.  It is always difficult to get 
"whipsawed" so sharply on a trade; hopefully we can all learn 
from such frustrations...learn that stops help us to control the 
pain, and losses.  

Picked on May 13th at $24.49 
Gain since picked:     -2.52
Earnings Date       04/17/02 (confirmed)




---

Verizon Comm. - VZ - close: 42.16 change: +1.22 stop: 40.06

On Friday, May 10th, we said we wanted to short VZ, but only if 
it dipped below a trigger level of $38.61.  Since then the stock 
has rallied forcefully, in unison with the broader market, and it 
is now nearly 10% away from out trigger; as such, we have elected 
to drop this untriggered short play at this time.  

Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date       04/23/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=============
AT New Plays
=============

  ----------------
  New Bullish Play
  ---------------- 

Shaw Group - SGR - cls: 34.29 chg: +0.94  stop: *see text* 

Company Description: 
The Shaw Group provides piping systems and engineering to the 
power generation industry.  For the six month period ending in 
February, 2002, the Shaw Group generated $1 billion in sales, 
with a net profit up 68% from its previous period, of $40 
million.   

Why We Like It: 
The Shaw Group may sound like it operates a horrifically boring 
business and, well, that may just be the case.  But we find the 
company and stock attractive at this point in time for a variety 
of fundamental and technical reasons. With a PEG ratio (PE/growth 
rate) of just .68, this stock is trading at a substantial 
discount to its growth rate, and this situation frequently allows 
good upside potential for prices.  Perhaps this was part of the 
reason that Frost Securities initiated coverage of SGR on May 6th 
with a "strong buy" rating.  Most important for us, 
fundamentally, is the recognition that SGR is the kind of stock 
which will generate more revenue, and more profit, in an 
improving economy.  And this is the environment in which we 
believe the US market now finds itself.  At a technical level, 
SGR is demonstrating good price strength in all our major weekly 
momentum indicators like the RSI, Stochastics and MACD.  Our 
strategy will be to buy SGR on a move above the modest resistance 
it has 35.75; once this trade is in play, we'll use a sell stop 
of 31.95.   

Picked on May xxth at $ xx.xx <-see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date         04/15/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Adolph Coors - RKY - close: 65.89 change: -0.29 stop: 63.89

Although retailers moved sharply higher today, the trading in 
consumer stocks was somewhat tepid.  RKY finished the session 
with a 29-cent loss for its lowest close of the month.  With the 
50-dma just less than 50 cents away, we're looking for shares to 
firm up at current levels.  Daily stochastics (using 5,3,3 as the 
setting) have bottomed, which indicates that near-term selling 
may be exhausted.  On a related note, it's interesting to note 
the trading action in BUD, which lost another 3% today.  Although 
RKY could be dragged lower by a continued decline in BUD, the relative 
strength is encouraging.  On a news-related note, RKY 
will hold its annual Shareholder Meeting on Thursday, May 16th.
 
Picked on May 2nd at $68.36
Gain since picked:    -2.47
Earnings Date      04/25/02 (confirmed) 




---

DaimlerChrysler - DCX - close: 47.99 change: +0.09 stop: 44.66

Strikes continue to roil the German metals and electronics 
industries, but there's optimism that Wednesday's wage talks 
between union and corporate officials will bring the conflict--
which has the ability to affect DCX--to a conclusion soon. 
DaimlerChrysler continues to hold up well in the face of this 
challenge and that of a volatile US market, with the stock eking 
out modest gains in recent days.  Technically, all systems remain 
a go: our weekly RSI, Stochastic Oscillator and MACD are rising, 
portending higher prices in coming weeks.

Picked on May 6th at $46.50 
Gain since picked:    +1.49
Earnings Date      02/20/02 (confirmed)




---

Goodrich Corp - GR - close: 32.73 change: +0.61 stop: 30.97 

The Chairman and CEO of Goodrich Corporation will address CSFB's 
Aerospace & Defense Finance Conference in New York City on 
Wednesday, May 15, 2002 at 9:15 a.m. EDT. Ahead of this 
presentation, GR advanced nearly 2% on Tuesday.  The stock spent 
the early April to early May period consolidating; since that time 
we have seen GR's price move up, and we like the renewed strength 
in its technicals, particularly the RSI and MACD.  Within just the 
last four trading sessions, GR's 50-dma has become a sturdy 
support for the stock and we now look for it to begin rising 
consistently off this support.  Additionally, one of our own 
analysts pointed out that the 5-dma just produced a bullish 
crossover of the 15-dma, which can be used as a short-term 
indicator of trend.

Picked on May 3rd at $31.97
Gain since picked:    +0.76
Earnings Date      04/24/02 (confirmed)




---

Loews Corporation - LTR - cls: 59.71 chg: -0.67 stop: 58.45

Loews moved down today after announcing that it would be paying a 
$0.445 dividend to holders of its Carolina Group (CG) subsidiary. 
Dividend payments effectively represent a distribution of 
corporate profits, so it was only natural that the stock declined 
today.  Since April 4th, LTR has been able to find support at, 
and rebound off of, its 50-dma.  Additionally, since Friday LTR 
has been bouncing off this level on a daily basis, and trading on 
either side of it, and we believe this "dance for support" will 
give rise to an attractive near-term rebound in the stock.  A 
slightly clearer picture can be seen on the 30-minute interval 
chart.  Traders will notice that the $59.00 level has been 
support and more conservative traders may want to wait for shares 
to close over the $61.00 mark before committing any capital.  Our 
technical indicators are offering some mixed signals.  While 
stochastics (using the default setting of 14,1,3) have rebounded 
from oversold, they have stalled with today's decline.  Patience 
is the best tool for this play right now.  

Picked on May 7th at $60.50 
Gain since picked:    -0.79
Earnings Date      05/09/02 (confirmed)




----

Mohawk Industries - MHK - close: 66.15 change: +1.96 stop: 62.98 

This morning's strong retail numbers kicked off a triple-digit 
rally in the Dow Jones that spread to the homebuilding sector.  
The DJUSHB home construction index bounced vigorously from the 
bottom of its ascending channel and finished the day with a 4.5% 
gain, while MHK moved higher with the sector and tacked on 3%.  
In the short-term, we're expecting the DJUSHB to retest the 
midline of its channel near 400 and propel MHK to a test of 
resistance at $68.  A move over this level could clear the way 
for a move to psychological resistance at $70 and hopefully 
beyond.   

Picked on May 3rd at $66.30
Gain since picked:    -0.15
Earnings Date      04/15/02 (confirmed) 




---

Smith Intl - SII - close: 76.14 change: +0.08 stop: 71.29

Although the price of oil (cl02m) shot to another relative high 
today, the OSX.X oil service index finished with a fractional 
loss.  The index has risen nearly 7% over the past week and may 
face some additional consolidation before attempting a move over 
the multi-month high of $112.74.  SII traded higher this morning 
following an upgrade from Bear Stearns, but finished with only a 
fractional gain.  Premier Investor is currently up 6.8% on this 
play, and short-term traders may want to consider reaping gains 
at current levels.  We're expecting an eventual move to the $80 
level and will likely initiate an exit price if shares move much 
higher.  SII looks technically stronger than the OSX.X because it 
actually traded to a near-term high today.  Please note that we 
did raise our stop to breakeven in the Monday night email.

Picked on April 26th at $71.29 
Gain since picked:       +4.85
Earnings Date         05/02/02 (confirmed)




---

Timberland Company - TBL - cls: 42.66 chg: +1.08 stop: 39.95 

This morning's retail sales report presented investors with hefty 
gains--up 1.2% compared to an expected .7% increase--and the US 
Commerce Department noted that consumer spending was particularly 
brisk in autos and building materials.  Shoe and apparel maker 
Timberland climbed on top of the report and rode it hard into the 
close, advancing more than 2%.  We are particularly optimistic 
about the short-term performance of TBL.  Shares have rebounded 
nicely off the 50-dma and the MACD looks like it's about to make 
a big bullish crossover near the baseline.  The stock has a price 
gap just above the $42.75 level, and we will be looking for TBL 
to advance quickly once it is able to gain a foothold in this gap 
and fill it.  The gap runs up to $44.83, where short-term traders 
may wish to take profits.  With that said, we continue to feel 
that TBL has the ability to move well beyond $44.83 in coming 
weeks - at least to more pronounced overhead resistance at $46.

Picked on May 3rd at $41.89 
Gain since picked:    +0.77
Earnings Date      04/18/02 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Danaher Corp. - DHR - close: 71.21 change: +1.83 stop: 73.01

Our short play in DHR was triggered yesterday after the stock 
gapped below our trigger price.  Shares moved higher today with 
the broader market and closed above the $70 level.  If the stock 
continues higher, the 50-dma at $71.78 should act as resistance.  
Bears will be watching for a move below yesterday's low of 
$69.01.  A break of this level could lead to a test of 
psychological support at $65.  Traders may want to wait for 
shares to fall back under the $70 level before considering new 
short positions.

Picked on May 13th at $69.03
Gain since picked:     -2.18
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed) 




---

Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 63.59 change: +0.29 stop: *text*

IGT moved higher with the gaming sector yesterday after JPM 
reaffirmed their "buy" rating on HET, which is also in the gaming 
sector.  Today's trading was more subdued, as shares ignored a 
strong rally in the Dow Jones and turned in a small 29-cent gain.  
From a technical perspective, the stock is threatening to break 
out of its descending channel.  If this occurred we would no 
longer be willing to go short.  After all, the premise of the 
play was to capture a move to the bottom of the channel.  For now 
we're keeping our trigger set at $61.24, although we'll probably 
close the play (untriggered) if IGT moves above $65.

Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date      04/23/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

Sabre Holdings Corp - TSG - cls: 38.74 chg: -1.31 stop: 42.01

A nice start for this short play!  After being triggered on 
Monday, TSG faded today's rocketing Dow Jones and NASDAQ.  
Driving the stock lower may have been news that EXPE (one of 
TSG's direct competitors) received positive comments from Morgan 
Stanley.  It stands to reason that if the outlook for EXPE is 
improving, it may be at the expense of TSG.  Shares lost 3.2%, 
traded briefly at a multi-month low, and closed under the 200-
dma.  Volume was brisk, coming in at nearly 3M versus the 937K 
average.  Furthermore, the stock broke though bullish support on 
the p-n-f chart.  The relative weakness and technical damage 
created by today's move bodes well for the bears--including us.  
Bulls may defend the lows for the year (2002) at $36.85, but 
given enough time we think TSG will reach the $35 level.  
Aggressive short-term bears can target new entries on a move 
below today's low of $37.60 or a failed rally under $40.

Picked on May 13th at $39.74
Gain since picked:     +1.00
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Home Depot - HD - close: 47.98 change: +2.36 stop: 47.51

Retail stocks exploded this morning after WMT and JCP reported 
better-than-expected earnings.  Adding fuel to the bullish sector 
sentiment was a 1.2% increase in April retail sales, which nearly 
doubled the expected gain of 0.7%.  Shares of HD gapped higher on 
the news but pulled back just one cent shy of our stop at $47.51.  
It wasn't until later in the session that shares rose above this 
level, at which point our play was closed for a loss of 4.4%.  
Shares finished the day with a 5.1% gain, just under the 50-dma 
at $49.19 but above its 200-dma.  Given the litany of bullish 
retail news today, we wouldn't be surprised to see the sector 
continue higher in the near-term.  Technically speaking, HD 
should find resistance near $50.  A failed rally at this level 
might be worth taking a look at if the sector bullishness fades 
away.

Picked on May 10th at $45.50 
Gain since picked:     -2.01
Earnings Date       05/21/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Amdocs Ltd - DOX - close: 17.85 change: +0.55 stop: 17.51

The pattern of relative weakness in DOX led to some nice gains 
for short-term bears, but shares finally responded to the NASDAQ 
rally and strung together two consecutive positive sessions.  
Although DOX was only about half as strong as the GSO.X software 
index today, it still managed to violate our stop-loss at $17.51.  
This closed out our short play for a gain of 9.0%.  As long as 
the stock continues to be weak versus the software sector, DOX 
remains an attractive short candidate.  We'd be watching for 
shares to falter at the $18 level.  Of course, the ability of 
bears to drive DOX lower will likely depend of the behavior of 
the GSO.X.  Even weak stocks tend to move higher when their 
sector is rallying. 

Picked on May 3rd at $19.25
Gain since picked     +1.74
Earnings Date      04/23/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 30.68 change: +1.59 stop: 30.01

QCOM started off the week on a positive note after UBS Warburg 
raised its rating on the company to "buy" from "hold."  Although 
the stock gained more than 5% on Monday, it was unable to muster 
a test of the $30 level.  That all changed this morning after 
positive economic numbers and an INTC upgrade sent futures 
rocketing higher.  Since QCOM opened above our stop at $30.01, 
this play was closed as of the opening price at $30.53.  Although 
QCOM has risen sharply in the last two sessions, the bullish MACD 
suggests that the stock may have more upside potential.  We 
wouldn't recommend any short positions at this time, but a failed 
rally at the $33-$34 level (near the top of QCOM's channel) would 
renew our interest.

Picked on May 3rd at $26.80
Gain since picked     -3.73
Earnings Date      04/24/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

No bones about it...Fossil announces 3-for-2 stock split

Concurrent with its earnings announcement before the bell this 
morning, Fossil, Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) announced that its Board of 
Directors had declared a 3-for-2 stock split.  

The split will take the form of a 50% stock dividend and will be 
payable on June 7, 2002 to shareholders of record on May 24, 2002.

FOSL most recently split in 1999; also a 3-for-2 offering.  The 
stock has more than doubled since September and has risen 32% YTD.

Shares closed at $27.70 on Monday. For a current quote, click here:

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=FOSL

About the company
Fossil is a design, development, marketing and distribution 
company that specializes in consumer products predicated on 
fashion and value. The Company's principle offerings include an 
extensive line of watches sold under the FOSSIL and RELIC brands 
as well as complementary lines of small leather goods, belts, 
handbags, sunglasses and jewelry and FOSSIL brand apparel. 
(source: company press release)

--- 

Gateway Financial sets 11-for-10 stock split

After the market closed today, Gateway Financial Holdings, Inc. 
(NASDAQ: GBTS) announced that its Board of Directors had approved 
an 11-for-10 stock split.

The split will take the form of a 10% stock dividend and will be 
payable on June 5, 2002 to stockholders of record on May 22, 2002.  

GBTS has not split since it began trading in June 2001.  The stock 
trades on very low average volume of 4,800 shares/day and in 
recent months had been rangebound between $9.00-$9.50.

Shares closed at $9.80 on Monday. For a current quote, click here:

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=GBTS

About the company
Gateway Financial Holdings, Inc. is the holding company for 
Gateway Bank, a full service community bank with offices in 
Elizabeth City, Edenton, Plymouth and Roper, North Carolina and 
Virginia Beach, Virginia. (source: company press release)


Split Updates
-------------

GoldCorp Confirms 2 for 1 stock split

Canadian-based Goldcorp announced today that its shareholders gave 
final approval for a 2 for 1 stock split on March 21, 2002.  
Shares of GG will begin trading at their new split price on May 
29, 2002. 

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=GG 



==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BAC     Bank of America            75.88     +0.88
BMY     Bristol-Myers Squibb       30.20     +1.83
DUK     Duke Energy Corp           36.97     +0.67
NCC     National City Corp         32.47     +0.55
CI      Cigna Corp                104.17     +1.03
UB      Unionbancal Corp           49.00     +0.82

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AMZN    Amazon.com Inc             18.81     +1.49
BEAS    BEA Systems                11.20     +1.22
TIBX    Tibco Software Inc          7.99     +1.14
ABGX    Abgenix Inc                15.11     +1.36
EXTR    Extreme Networks           11.47     +1.33
OMX     OfficeMax Inc               7.75     +1.27

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

WMT     Wal-Mart Stores Inc        57.39     +2.35
BLS     Bellsouth Corp             31.09     +1.23
AMGN    Amgen Inc                  51.79     +3.83
KSS     Kohl's Corp                73.00     +3.25
FOX     Fox Entertainment          25.70     +1.85
WY      Weyerhauser Co             67.61     +2.62
S       Sears Roebuck & Co         54.89     +2.89

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BUD     Anheuser-Busch Cos Inc     49.10     +1.54
WLP     Wellpoint Health Network   70.35     -1.62
TSG     Sabre Holdings Corp        38.40     -1.31
WW      Watson Wyatt & Co          22.50     -1.35

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

STJ     Saint Jude Medical Inc     81.95     -1.80
ATH     Anthem Inc                 64.95     -1.05
STZ     Constellation Brands Inc   28.73     -1.42
KMX     Circuit City/Carmax Group  30.42     -2.15
ATN     Action Performance Cos     42.49     -1.64
WLS     William Lyon Homes         27.10     -2.60




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