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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 05/15/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter              Wednesday 05-15-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Cautiously Bullish
Watch List:       AAPL, CLS, MXIM, RFMD, and more...
Play of the Day:  Waiting On the Numbers


******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
        05-15-2002        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10243.70 + 29.74 10349.10 10223.70 1409 mln   1681/1485
NASDAQ   1725.60 +  6.50  1759.33  1694.34 1620 mln   1826/1680
S&P 100   542.02 -  3.58   549.41   541.43   totals   3507/3165
S&P 500  1091.07 -  6.21  1104.23  1088.94
RUS 2000  513.54 +  1.82   515.26   508.50
DJ TRANS 2797.98 + 29.74  2808.79  2762.49
VIX        22.13 -  0.03    22.42    21.03
VIXN       45.29 +  0.00    46.13    43.29
Put/Call Ratio      0.70

******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

WE REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH 


My Underlying Market View:  Cautiously Bullish.   

From mid March until early May, the major market indexes--Dow, 
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite--were in a sustained decline.  Major 
stocks were clobbered.  Economic reports seemed contradictory. 
Bulls suffered. Bears ruled. Frustrating for investors?  Heck 
yeah!  But in the last few days we've seen some hopeful 
improvements--reversals, actually--in the major indexes.  And 
these reversals appear to be significant.  As I'll discuss below, 
I am cautiously bullish on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 
500 and Nasdaq Composite as we go forward over the next few 
weeks. The March-May consolidation now seems to be mostly over--
MOSTLY--and these indexes are displaying technical strength which 
suggests they will plod higher, in a sloppy two-steps-up-one-
step-back manner.  

Today's Market:  

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) for April was released this 
morning.  Consumer prices rose 0.5%, compared to an expected 
0.4%. During the first four months of 2002, the CPI rose at a 
rate of 3.8%; during 2001, the CPI rose only 1.6%, and this 
discrepancy may have been enough to give some investors the 
willies during trading hours.  But investors should have 
applauded the news on industrial production in the nation's 
factories, mines and utilities.  Industrial output rose 0.4 
percent in April, the Federal Reserve said this morning.  The Fed 
noted that this is the fourth straight monthly increase in the 
output numbers.  Capacity utilization rose slightly to 75.5 
percent from a 75.3 percent level in March. The industrial 
reports give increasing support to the notion that the US economy 
is improving.

It's no secret that the markets were holding their breath last 
night as Applied Materials (AMAT) released its earnings.  When 
the semiconductor company reported slightly better than expected 
profits yesterday, we suspected that today's markets would get 
juiced for another positive session. With several brokerages 
raising their ratings on AMAT this morning, the Nasdaq Composite 
was able to add on 6.5 points, or 0.37%, to close at 1725.  But 
the big cap indexes were caught up in minor profit taking.  The 
Dow lost 54 points, closing still well above the key 10,000 
level, at 10,244.  The S&P Index dropped a proportional amount, 
about 0.5%, to finish at 1091. After the strength of the last few 
trading sessions, today's pullback in the Dow and S&P 500 (SPX.X) 
seems only natural. 
 
IBM's analyst meeting, which convened after the market closed 
today, did little to push the S&P futures one way or the other.  
As of 6 p.m. EDT, the futures were up only fractionally.  Big 
Blue told analysts that its current environment continues to be 
difficult, but that its long-term expectation is to generate 
"double-digit" earnings into the future.  Cost cutting is 
expected to be a principle part of this double-digit strategy to 
achieve these earnings, though the company did not elaborate on 
any reductions in its huge workforce.

With IBM offering little to roil markets after-hours, the only 
other land mines for which we've been watching this evening 
concerned earnings. So far all is well on this front.  Intuit 
(INTU) reported better than expected profits while Ann Taylor 
(ANN) and Brocade Communications (BRCD) came in as expected. Both 
INTC and BRCD traded down in after hours, but only by about 1/2% 
to 1%: hardly the stuff that produces market implosions.

Getting Ready For Tomorrow, Thursday, May 16th.

Thursday morning's economic reports will include 1) housing 
starts, 2) building permits and 3) initial jobless claims.  There 
has been some uncertainty in the markets recently as to whether 
the brisk pace of home construction can continue. If the two 
construction-related reports are better than expected, this will 
be encouraging for the budding economic recovery in the US.  If 
this is the case, traders can anticipate, more than likely, that 
Thursday's market will get an opening boost from the positive 
construction reports. 

At a technical level, the Market Volatility Index (VIX) has 
returned to readings in the low 20's.  In the last few months the 
VIX has had a tendency reverse in the 19-20 region; when the VIX 
does reverse at these levels, selling pressure usually visits the 
markets.  The VIX closed today at 21.93.  My interpretation of 
this is as follows: 1) options investors have become overly 
bullish, and complacent (since the VIX is a contrarian indicator, 
this bullishness makes me short term cautious) and 2) as such, 
near term market volatility is likely to increase once the VIX 
begins its next upward move.  

Here are some key technical levels on the major indexes to watch 
on Thursday, May 16th:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average:   Support is in the 10,120 
region, so another 100+ point dip would not be surprising, 
perhaps by the end of the week. Could we go lower? Sure, but 9970 
should be the worst we'd see.

S&P 500 (SPX): First support for the SPX is at 1075.  If the 
bears get frisky, we might get pushed down to the 1055 level.  As 
of tonight, I think that would be about it.  

Nasdaq Composite: The Composite (COMPX) has been the most 
volatile of the major indexes. Technically, it looks like it runs 
into resistance at the 1810 level, about 90 points above today's 
close of 1725.  This means the COMPX might surprise us in coming 
days with more strength.  The index should have support in the 
1650-1665 region if and when brisk profit taking hits the tech 
stocks.

Each night I'm going to plan to cover a few of the sector indexes 
which are likely to see action--good or bad--in coming days.  
Here's my thoughts on tonight's sectors:

Bank Index (BKX)

This index has just begun to move off of a two-month 
consolidation, much like the Dow.  It closed at 904 today; our 
weekly technical indicators all point higher. This index has a 
tendency to sometimes lead the broader market, and the positive 
nature of the index is bullish for the S&P 500.  Many 
bank/financial stocks have technical patterns similar to this 
index.  Some of the financial-related stocks which have positive 
patterns include ONE, FBF, JPM, and HBC.

Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC)

In our Watch List, and our plays, you've no doubt seen a number 
of "boring" stocks appear recently.  Old guard stocks, so to 
speak: autos, oils, manufacturers and the like.  These are stocks 
who's well-being is bound to the state of the economy; stocks 
which rise and fall (hence, cyclical) with good times and bad.  
This index is mirroring the signals we're receiving from the Dow:  
higher stock prices in these stocks seem likely. An example:  
Deere & Company reported better than expected earnings on 
Tuesday, was upgraded on Wednesday and is flashing a technical 
pattern that we think is screams "breakout."   ELUX, APN, AHC, 
DE, and DCN are a few stocks traders should watch.  The CYC Index 
closed at 592.  Once above 600, this could be a tough one to hold 
down.  Sometimes boring can be good!

Morgan Stanley Healthcare Index (HMO)  

The HMO Index was a big winner during the March-May time period 
when the rest of the market was suffering.  Now, though, I think 
the tables are about to be turned.  Stocks like WLP, which we 
have profiled recently on our Watch List, are probably in for a 
few weeks of more profit taking.  The HMO Index closed on 
Wednesday at 609. The index will have to break through the 635 
region to begin a new upward move.  Conversely, traders involved 
with stocks in this index will want to be cautious on a move 
below 570.

Semiconductor Index (SOX)

The SOX is one of those indexes that can thrash the markets 
around on a daily basis. It is the tail that wags the dog on many 
trading days. That's the reason that Applied Materials' (AMAT) 
earnings were so eagerly awaited last night.  Some of the 
markets' most impressive companies are in this index, including 
Intel (INTU), Texas Instruments (TXN) and Micron Technology (MU).  
The SOX closed at 538 on Wednesday. It should have support in the 
515 region over the next few trading sessions.  If it is able to 
begin trading above 546, traders should look for the SOX to make 
a serious run for the 600 region.

Oil Services Index (OSX)

The oil services sector--composed of stocks like HAL, SLB, BJS, 
and RIG--has been a powerful performer this year.  There is a 50-
50 chance, though, that the index, like the HMO Index, is getting 
top-heavy and may fall into a multi-week consolidation.  The 
upside to this observation, though, is this: the OSX could add on 
another 10-12% before running out of steam.  The index closed at 
106 today. A move back above 112 should allow it to reach the 120 
region, which may be its eventual top.  If we begin to see the 
OSX stalling persistently at the 110 region in coming days, 
however, that is likely to be an indication that its 
consolidation is ready to start.

Siegfried Brian Barger, 
Editor   


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------


Apple Computer - AAPL - close: 25.28 change: -0.33

WHAT TO WATCH: Short-term traders who are anticipating a 
continuation of the recent tech rally may want to consider biting 
into AAPL.  After briefly piercing the bottom of its ascending 
channel last week, the stock shot higher with the NASDAQ.  Shares 
are now faced with a test of resistance at $26, which thwarted 
rally attempts in February and April.  The MACD is curling higher 
from just below the zero-line.  This is significant, because the 
two previous attempts to break the $26 level were not accompanied 
by a bullish MACD.  This indicates that AAPL may have enough 
momentum to break over resistance.  In terms of specific action 
points, we'd be looking for a move over the 2002 high of $26.17.  
Shares may face additional resistance at the 2001 high of $27.12, 
but if the tech sector remains strong we'd expect a test of the 
top of the channel near $28.  P-n-f chartists would also point 
out that a trade at $27 would create a double-top buy signal.

Chart =


--- 

Celestica - CLS - close: 32.55 change: +1.39

WHAT TO WATCH: The past week has been a fun ride for shareholders 
of CLS: The stock has risen over 28% from its low of $25.32 on 
May 7th.  This fact alone should have some bears licking their 
chops in anticipation of a healthy dose of profit-taking.  We 
think CLS is an attractive short because in addition to being 
overbought, the stock also faces resistance at the 50-dma 
($32.80).  This matches up nicely with the top of the stock's 
descending regression channel.  Traders targeting a decline could 
do so with relatively little risk by placing a stop slightly 
above the 50-dma.  If CLS keeps moving higher we'd look for a 
pullback near $34, which acted as resistance in April.  This 
level is reinforced by the 50% retracement from the September 
lows to December highs.

Chart =


--- 

Maxim Integrated Products - MXIM - close: 50.76 change: +0.02

WHAT TO WATCH: Is the SOX.X (semiconductor index) headed back to 
600?  We're not sure, but MXIM could be a good way to take 
advantage of continued bullishness in the sector.  The stock 
looks compelling on a technical basis: Although it only finished 
with a fractional gain today, MXIM rose to a near-term high in 
intraday trading and closed above the 200-dma.  The move over $52 
pushed the stock above bearish resistance on the p-n-f chart.  
Furthermore, the MACD is signaling a bullish crossover.  This 
bodes well for a retest of the $58 resistance level.  Watch for a 
move over today's high of $52.97 (just above the 50-dma) to offer 
a possible entry point.

Chart =
 

--- 

RF Micro Devices - RFMD - close: 18.18 change: -0.22

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of RFMD joined the SOX.X is a steep rally 
over the past week.  Maybe "steep" is an understatement; the 
stock has risen nearly 25% from its May 7th lows.  That's a lot 
of gains for bulls to digest, but we think RFMD may consolidate 
for a few sessions and continue higher.  The stock has risen 
above bearish p-n-f resistance at $18.00.  This often signals the 
beginning of a longer-term uptrend.  Looking at a daily chart, 
you can see that RFMD has briefly spiked higher three times this 
year.  Of course, there's no guarantee that this will happen 
again, but it does show that the stock has the potential to post 
large gains in a small amount of time.  Aggressive traders could 
target entries at current levels, while others may want to wait 
for several days of consolidation near the $18 level.  If RFMD 
does spike higher once again, we'd be looking for a move to $21-
$22.

Chart =



=============
MORE TO WATCH
=============

Dole Foods Inc. - DOL - close: 33.43 change: +0.03

DOL has been stair-stepping its way higher for several months and 
has spent the last two months consolidating under resistance at 
$34.  A close over this level could portend another leg higher.

Chart =


---  

Charter One Financial - CF - close: 35.20 change: +0.80

CF recently bounced from its 50-dma and has moved higher on 
rising volume.  The MACD and daily stochastics both look bullish, 
which leads us to believe that CF will break over resistance at 
$36.  Traders can consider long entries on a close above this 
level.
 
Chart =



===============
Play-of-the-Day  (BULLISH)
===============

Mohawk Industries - MHK - close: 66.91 change: +0.76 stop: 62.98

Company Description:
Mohawk is a leading supplier of flooring for both residential and 
commercial applications and a producer of woven and tufted 
broadloom carpet, rugs and ceramic tile. The Company designs, 
manufactures and markets premier carpet brand names and a broad 
line of home products including rugs, throws, pillows and 
bedspreads. (source: company press release)


- ORIGINAL WRITE UP: May 3rd, 2002 -

Why We Like It:
The continued rise in homebuilding-related issues has made it a 
bit difficult to find a long play in the sector. Sure, there are 
plenty of stocks with strong charts. The problem is finding one 
that doesn't look overbought. Fortunately, our scan of stocks in 
the group turned up MHK. The company is not a homebuilder per-se, 
but as a manufacturer of carpets, rugs and flooring, it stands to 
benefit from a strong sector. Business is brisk, as evidenced by 
the April 15th earnings announcement that featured an EPS of 77 
cents/share, versus the estimate of 67 cents. Sales were up 12% 
from the year-ago total. MHK is displaying technical strength as 
well. Shares have trended higher since the earnings announcement 
and are within striking distance of the all-time high at $68.10. 
The daily stochastics are rising higher with room to move, which 
indicates that the stock may break over this level. The DJUSHB 
home construction index is at the midline of its ascending 
channel. Traders looking to confirm bullish sector sentiment may 
want to wait for the index to continue higher before going long. 
We're starting this play with a stop at $62.98, below the 50-dma. 
This would be a 5% move from the current price. We do expect 
potential resistance at $70 but the top of the channel should be 
close to $75, which is our initial profit target. 

- Most Recent Update: May 14th, 2002 -

This morning's strong retail numbers kicked off a triple-digit 
rally in the Dow Jones that spread to the homebuilding sector. 
The DJUSHB home construction index bounced vigorously from the 
bottom of its ascending channel and finished the day with a 4.5% 
gain, while MHK moved higher with the sector and tacked on 3%. In 
the short-term, we're expecting the DJUSHB to retest the midline 
of its channel near 400 and propel MHK to a test of resistance at 
$68. A move over this level could clear the way for a move to 
psychological resistance at $70 and hopefully beyond.

- Play-of-the-Day Comments: May 15th, 2002 -

Stronger-than-expected retail sales numbers sent the retail 
sector rocketing higher yesterday.  In this uncertain economic 
climate, investors lend a lot of credence to this sort of 
"boring" economic data.  Keeping with this theme, we think MHK 
could receive a substantial boost from tomorrow's release of 
housing starts data.  An upside surprise could be the catalyst 
that MHK needs to breakout to all-time highs.  Besides, the 
bearish reaction to the inflationary CPI data today hit several 
of the homebuilding stocks pretty good.  Bulls might decide to 
buy the dip tomorrow. Of course in MHK's case it could be by the 
breakout.  If the market reaction is positive (the numbers are 
released before the bell), aggressive traders can consider 
entries on a move above the all-time high of $68.45.  However, be 
aware that bears may defend psychological resistance at $70.

Picked on May 3rd at $66.30 
Gain since picked:    +0.61  
Earnings Date      04/15/02 (confirmed)
 
Chart =




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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact advertising@PremierInvestor.net.

*****************************************************************


Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 05-15-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/e15b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:
  
Net Bulls
  Closed Bearish Plays: TBH

Active Trader Non-Tech Stocks 
  Closed Bearish Plays: IGT

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  -------------------
  Closed Bearish Play
  -------------------

Telecom Brasil - TBH - close: 27.92 change: +0.62 stop: 28.35

The beleaguered telecom sector finally experienced a short-
covering rally this week.  There wasn't any specific news to 
suggest that the group may have bottomed out, but stocks like TBH 
were due for some short-covering after a 3-week decline.  In 
intraday trading today, TBH violated our stop-loss of $28.35.  At 
this point our play was closed out for a gain of 4.96% from our 
original entry point.  We're still bearish on the stock, but 
would like to see a rollover near the $30 level before 
reconsidering a short position.  Bears would also want to see the 
North American Telecom index (XTC.X) falter at the 550 resistance 
level or watch for the IXTCX Combined Telecom Index to closed 
back under the 140 level for a potential rollover.  Traders still 
looking for telecom shorts may also want to take a look at T, 
which has been relatively weak compared to other stocks in the 
group.

Picked on May 3rd at $29.83 
Gain since picked:    +1.48
Earnings Date           N/A





=================================================================
Active Trader/Non-tech Stocks (AT) section
=================================================================

===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  -------------------- 

Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 64.13 change: +0.54 stop: *text*

We had bearish aspirations for IGT, but the stock just didn't 
want to cooperate.  Our strategy was to capture a rollover from 
the top of the stock's descending channel.  Instead of rolling 
over, IGT moved higher with the broader market rally and is now 
trading near levels not seen since early-March.  Needless to say, 
we're no longer willing to attempt a short play on this stock.  
Since shares did not move below $61.25, our play was never 
triggered.  A similar move out of the descending channel in March 
turned out to be a bull trap, but at this point we need to wait 
and see whether the rally is sustainable.  We may give IGT 
another look if it falls below the 50-dma near $61.

Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date      04/23/02 (confirmed) 






==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change  

DT      Deutsche Telekom           12.58     +0.53
MLEA    Millea Holdings Inc ADR    40.07     +0.56
YUM     Tricon Global Restaurants  64.90     +0.75
CF      Charter One Financial      35.20     +0.80
FTN     First Tennessee Natl. Corp 40.45     +0.71
RDN     Radian Group               54.76     +0.95

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AMZN    Amazon.com Inc             19.94     +1.13
IMMU    Immunomedics Inc           14.41     +1.42
USU     USEC Inc                    8.95     +1.10
BLUD    Immucor Inc                17.86     +1.16
MRGE    Merge Technologies Inc      8.25     +1.01

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UBS     UBS AG Ord.                50.86     +1.22
FDC     First Data Corp            82.18     +2.73
CCU     Clear Channel Comm. Inc    52.65     +2.69
QCOM    QUALCOMM Inc               32.07     +1.39
ITW     Illinois Tool Works        74.00     +1.54
NWS     The News Corp. Ltd         30.43     +1.98
MCO     Moody's Corp               50.26     +1.77

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MO      Phillip Morris Companies   53.59     -1.32
AIG     American Intl. Group       65.90     -2.17
ABT     Abbott Labs                46.90     -4.84
SGP     Schering Plough            25.00     -3.49
BAX     Baxter Intl. Inc           53.34     -1.63
IMI     San Paolo IMI Spa          21.30     -1.42

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

DEBS    Deb Shops Inc              31.25     -1.12
DRQ     Dril-Quip Inc              23.98     -1.50
ESV     Ensco Intl. Inc            33.12     -2.24



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To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





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