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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 05/16/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                          05-16-2002
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Treasury Yields Say "Recovery"
Play-of-the-Day:  Driving Over the Bears
Market Sentiment: Expired


-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
        05-16-2002        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10289.20 + 45.50 10318.80 10230.70 1237 mln   1419/1732
NASDAQ   1730.40 +  4.80  1734.71  1713.81 1437 mln   1568/1930
S&P 100   547.88 +  5.86   548.17   541.08   totals   2987/3662
S&P 500  1098.23 +  7.16  1099.29  1089.17
RUS 2000  507.40 -  6.14   513.10   506.02
DJ TRANS 2768.97 - 29.01  2805.18  2765.82
VIX        21.45 -  0.57    22.25    20.88
VIXN       44.52 -  0.34    45.42    44.20
Put/Call Ratio      0.86
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

TREASURY YIELDS SAY "RECOVERY" 


I Am Still Bullish.   

In tonight's commentary I place a good bit of weight on the past 
lesson we learned from US Treasury Note yields.  That lesson:  
the bond market has a tendency to flash key reversal signals 
concerning the longer term direction of the US economy, and stock 
market.  It did it in January 2001, prior to the collapse of the 
stock market; it is doing it again today.  Now, this is not the 
only reason I am cautiously bullish on the stock market; there 
are several other reasons.  But the bottom line for tonight's 
discussion remains this: Treasury yields are telling us that a 
real recovery is underway, and that the stock market is poised to 
move higher in coming weeks and months.

Today's Market:  

Today's morning market action was initially influenced by the 
April housing report, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's monthly 
index for May, and initial jobless claims for the week ending May 
11th. Housing starts slumped modestly, off 5% from the previous 
month, and this disappointed Wall Street at first, which expected 
a rise in this number.  Philadelphia's economic activity plodded 
along but at a slower rate, with the Philly index falling from a 
reading of 12.3 in April to 9.1 for May. Meaning what?  Well, as 
long as the index remains above a reading of "0", economic 
conditions continue to improve, but the 9.1 level (compared to 
the higher 12.3) indicated a loss of momentum.   The last report 
that was whipped into this morning's market breakfast was 
concerning jobless claims. Claims rose 2,000 to 418,000 from the 
previous week's figure of 416,000, meaning that workers continue 
to lose jobs due to layoffs.   Economists were generally 
anticipating a reduction in claims, to the 407,000 level.  
 
So how did investors interpret this array of Somonex-inspired-
yet-important economic news?  Concisely, each of these reports 
implied sluggishness in US economic growth.  At least for today, 
anyway.  The impact at the open?  Not surprisingly, investors 
became weak-kneed right off the starting block, pushing the major 
averages down fractionally, while pumping money into bonds--hey, 
that's where the money goes when concerns about a weak economy 
arise.  By the time the markets closed, though, the Dow & S&P 500 
nudged up by about 1/2%, while the Nasdaq Composite muddled 
higher by 1/4%.

The broader issue I want to address, though, is this: do I think 
the economy is still sliding downward...and with it the stock 
market?  My answer: No. Sure, we aren't seeing steam drift off a 
sizzling recovery yet; it's just not that hot.  But we are seeing 
improvements, and our stock market is telling us about some of 
them.  Here are a few items that are leading me to this 
perspective:

Yields Are Rising:  
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note (TNX.X) has now formed a 
huge, long term reverse head and shoulders pattern on its weekly 
YIELD chart.  This means, to me, that yields will rise--and, as a 
result, so will general interest rates--in coming weeks and 
months.  Why are yields rising? Yields are anticipating stronger 
economic activity and, with it, the prospect of inflationary 
pressures (not all inflationary pressures are bad, remember).  
Remember when yields peaked in January of 2001, and then began 
declining.... just about 6 weeks prior to the beginning of one of 
the most brutal bear markets in our history?  The Treasury market 
anticipates the economy.  It is telling us something important 
today.  We should listen.

The S&P 500 Has Established a Long Term Bottom:  
Yes, I know: there are lots of folks who will disagree with me 
whole-heartedly.  But here's the long and short of this argument.  
The SPX has a weekly price pattern, which is very similar to the 
reverse head and shoulders pattern on ten-year note yields 
discussed immediately above. Yields and the market are moving in 
lock step, with yields leading by a month or so.  We should not 
lose site of this important market relationship.

Corporate Capital Expenditures Are Improving:  
There's lots of debate about whether capital expenditures (Wall 
Street seems only able to call it "cap-ex") are improving, but 
one thing is for sure: without improvements in "cap-ex", there 
will be little improvement in general economic growth.  In fact, 
the Federal Open Market Committee (you know, they're the fed boys 
charged with raising and lowering interest rates) has pinpointed 
weak capital spending as the major obstacle to a robust, 
sustained recovery in the economy.  

Which brings me to some of the earnings reports and guidance we 
have recently received from companies like CSCO ("we hit a home 
run"), Dell, IBM (looking for "double-digit" growth into the 
future), Deere, Dana Corp., and a host of other companies.  The 
products of these companies--which represent capital expenditures 
for corporate America--are showing an increase in sales (well at 
least most of them.  The CSCO report is pretty suspect.).  The 
most recent example: Dell's earnings and guidance, which were 
released after today's market close.  Not only did the company 
earn $0.17 a share for their first quarter, above consensus 
estimates of $0.16, but the company said that its sales and 
profits were helped by a hefty 16% increase in sales to corporate 
customers. Sales to corporate customers?  That sure sounds like 
"cap-ex" to me!  Want another example?  Tonight's release of the 
semiconductor book-to-bill ratio showed that orders jumped 17% in 
April, with the book-to-bill standing at 1.2.  On a year-over-
year basis, orders rose for the first time in 15 months.  My 
point: cap-ex is improving, and this will become clearer as more 
current, broader-based manufacturing reports are released in May.  
But Treasury yields are already telling us this in their sneaky 
government-speak.

Getting Ready For Tomorrow, Friday, May 17th.

Friday morning's economic reports are minimal.  We'll get the 
preliminary report on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey 
around 10 a.m. EDT.  If higher consumer confidence readings are 
articulated in that survey, this should give a boost to the 
market averages after its release.  Trade balance numbers are 
reported before the open; as far as I am concerned, there will 
need to be equivalent to the elimination of the US tax code for 
this snoozer of a report to nudge the market at all.  We have 
virtually no important earnings announcements scheduled for 
Friday.  

Last night I mentioned that the Market Volatility Index (VIX) was 
nearing the 19-20 region; this is USUALLY a reading which gives 
rise to increasing volatility and with it market weakness, but 
only once the VIX begins to reverse upward.  As of today, the VIX 
closed at 21.13--very close to a "cautious" reading for the stock 
market--but its technical chart is suggesting this index will go 
lower in coming days.  The implication: we are likely to see the 
broader market averages move upward over the next couple of days 
as this index edges down to reading of 19-20.  At that point, the 
risk of short term market weakness increases considerably.

Now, for those of you who like numbers the way Motley Crue's 
Vince Neil enjoys, well, uh, dating, here's some key technical 
levels on the major indexes for Friday, May 17th:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow is trying to move 
upward toward resistance at the 10,450 level.  
Support/retracement levels are in the 10,215-10,225 area.  A move 
below this region will likely push the Dow down to the 10,125 
region where it would find good support.  I vote for a move 
upward before downward.

S&P 500 (SPX): First support for the SPX for Friday has been 
moved up to 1086.  The index is telling us, though, that it wants 
to move higher over the next few days....until the VIX (see 
above) tells us that market weakness is ready to set in.  I see 
fairly firm short-term resistance at SPX 1120-1125.

Nasdaq Composite: As I said last night, I think the Nasdaq 
Composite (COMPX) still has a good chance of rising over the next 
couple of days before getting whacked by some healthy profit 
taking.  COMPX 1775-1810 is the point most likely to produce 
resistance. If we get above this, look out bears!  We'd be headed 
considerably higher.  The COMPX should have good support in the 
1650-1665 region; that was my view last night.  This remains the 
case.  But the current strength of the COMPX is suggesting that 
something higher, in the 1695-1700 area, may be a more likely 
rebound area for the index if we see any weakness on Friday.

Here's my thoughts on tonight's sectors.  Other sectors covered 
in my recent market wraps include the SOX, CYX, BKX, HMO, and 
OSX.  Be sure to check them out.

Treasury Note Yields (TNX)

I've already addressed the general topic of longer-term yields 
and the hints they are giving us about our economy and the stock 
market.  The Ten-year US Treasury yields (TNX) are currently at 
5.12%.  I think it is highly unlikely they will return to levels 
much below 5.0% again.  In the next several weeks, yields are 
hinting that they want to rise to 5.49% before hitting 
resistance.  If yields can get above this--and I think there is a 
very good chance they will--look for a move toward 6% by mid 
July.


Broker Dealer Index (XBD)

Clobbered.  That's the best description to use for this index.  
But I think it has bottomed, both short-term and longer-term.  
Like last night's discussion of the Bank Index, which includes 
some brokerages as well, companies like JPM, MDW, BS, AMTD and 
others have attractive short-term patterns.  You should not 
mortgage the house on this sector--nothing is going to go 
straight up.  But I'd bet my size 42 David Lee Roth Spandex 
tights that this index will be considerably higher in 4-5 weeks. 
As long as this index (which closed at 483) stays above 450, it 
should continue to recover.

Airline Index (XAL)

Like the brokers (above) you can color this index "bloody red." 
But the XAL has now declined on our weekly charts to a key 
Fibonacci retracement level (78.6%)--of the XAL's Sept, 2001 to 
March, 2002 advance.  The XAL's low of 77.6 registered on May 
13th coincides with this retracement. If our forecast is correct, 
this index should now move higher and not drop back below a 
reading of 77.6; it closed today at 82.46.

Like I always tell the elk up here in the Rocky Mountains: being 
rich and healthy is better than being sick and poor. Well, that's 
just my bias, anyway.

Siegfried Brian Barger, 
Editor   


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (New BULLISH play)
=========================

Dana Corp. - DCN - close: 21.72 change: +0.92 stop: see text

Company Description:
Dana is a major supplier of components and products for 
automobiles and other vehicles.  The company not only markets its 
products to auto manufacturers, to be used in the production of 
new automobiles, but also to after market enterprises.  

Why We Like It:
Dana is part of the cyclical complex, a company who's fortunes 
are tied to the performance of the US economy.  It's no surprise 
that its stock was bludgeoned in the last few years, with its 
price dropping from a 1998 high near $60 to today's close of 
$21.72.  We have been watching the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index 
(CYC) recently, and believe that this index, like the Dow Jones 
Industrial Index, is on the verge of another healthy breakout. 
Dana's chart looks similar. Dana informed analysts on Wednesday 
evening that it expects earnings to now be in the range of $0.33-
$0.35 per share for its second quarter, rather than the previous 
forecast of $0.28.  This improvement in guidance gave the stock a 
strong price boost today of over 4%, and this move represents an 
important breakout after a two month sideways consolidation.  
Today's breakout was accompanied by a large volume spike. Other 
impressive technical factors are these: the RSI, Stochastic 
Oscillator and MACD are all positive, or turning positive, on 
both our daily and weekly charts.  Technically and fundamentally 
we consider this to be a very attractive long play.  Long 
positions could be taken on a move above today's high ($21.85), 
with a stop placed below near-term support at $19.95.  However, 
our official trigger point will be $22.26, since the $22 level 
could be temporary resistance.  We want to catch it on the 
breakout.  Expect this play to be triggered in the next few 
trading sessions.

Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:  +0.00
Earnings Date      04/17/02 (confirmed)
 




================
Market Sentiment
================

Expired
By Eric Utley

The bulls took a break from their recent buying binge during
today's session, leaving the major market averages slightly
higher for the day.  Bonds were higher too.  And for good measure,
gold equities found a bid to the tune of 2 percent.

In other words, there wasn't much to conclude from Thursday's
session other than stocks finished fractionally higher.  The
S&P 500 (SPX.X) traded in a very narrow range for the day;
intraday high to low measured 10 points.  The lack of volatility
during the session was a product of May options expiring tomorrow.
Traders finished their squaring of positions ahead of
expiration, with most sitting from the sidelines watching the
paint dry on the charts.

In the risk department, we've seen several major markets shift
back to bullish positions.  Most notably, the Nasdaq-100 Bullish
Percent ($BPNDX) and S&P 500 Bullish Percent ($BPSPX) reversed
back into bull confirmed mode, confirming the bull alert
positioning that we observed last week.  The Dow and OEX measures
reversed back up into a bear correction mode.

Like we talked about a few columns ago, the risk has now shifted
to the upside in the major averages.  That's not to say that
stocks go straight higher, but that the risk is now higher
rather than lower.  To the bears, that means covering short
positions, resulting in demand to the upside.  For the bulls,
that means trying bullish positions with good risk management.

As for tomorrow's action, the options expiration may continue to
lend to the lack of volatility in the market.  Put/call ratios as
well as market fear gauges are difficult to read into this close
to expiration.  

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     : 10289

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10071
 50-dma: 10251
200-dma:  9907

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1098

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1075
 50-dma: 1117
200-dma: 1122

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1315

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1240
 50-dma: 1370
200-dma: 1465


Internet ($INX)

The INX was the best performing sector during today's session
with its 2.77 percent gain.  Most tech sectors finished in
positive territory, but the Internet sector gained the most for
the day.

The best performing stocks in the sector included Juniper
(NASDAQ:JNPR), Checkpoint (NASDAQ:CHKP), Cisco Systems
(NASDAQ:CSCO), and CMGI (NASDAQ:CMGI).

52-week High: 243
52-week Low :  76
Current     : 100

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  92
 50-dma: 106
200-dma: 118


Biotech ($BTK) 

The BTK was the worst performing sector during Thursday's
session with its 3.26 percent drop on the day.  The poor
earnings report from ImClone (NASDAQ:IMCL) pressured the
already beaten down sector.

The worst performing stocks in the group included the
aforementioned ImClone, Protein Design Labs (NASDAQ:PDLI),
MedImmune (NASDAQ:MEDI), Enzon (NASDAQ:ENZN), and Millennium
(NASDAQ:MLNM).

52-week High: 676
52-week Low : 375
Current     : 409

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 402
 50-dma: 468
200-dma: 512

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX continued lower during today's session, in a way
confirming the recent bullishness we've seen in the broader
market.  But it's slipping back towards historic lows.

The VXN has slipped into a short term descending trend, dropping
another 2 percent during Thursday's session.  I'll be watching
for the curling 50-dma near 42 to provide a lift.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 21.10 -1.03
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 44.55 -0.85

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.86        610,176       522,160
Equity Only    0.72        476,655       343,676
OEX            1.40         29,868        41,694
QQQ            0.83         56,745        47,074

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          63      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    50      + 1     Bull Confirmed
DOW           53      + 0     Bear Correction
S&P 500       63      + 3     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       61      + 3     Bear Correction

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.23
10-Day Arms Index  1.32
21-Day Arms Index  1.37
55-Day Arms Index  1.25

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1429           1742
NASDAQ    1576           1919

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      122             49
NASDAQ    148             78

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,227
NASDAQ   2,645

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 05/07/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

S&P commercials eased further from their extreme bearish
positioning.  The group added more longs than shorts for a
reduction to their net bearish position.  Small traders backed
off from their most bullish reading by adding more shorts than
longs.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
04/16/02      322,578   411,245   (88,667)  (12.1%)
04/30/02      340,936   421,673   (80,737)  (10.6%)
05/07/02      348,019   422,801   (74,782)   (9.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/16/02      150,529     50,424  100,105     49.8%
04/30/02      153,158     56,372   96,786     46.2%
05/07/02      154,664     59,583   95,081     44.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials stayed on the fence during the most recent
reporting period.  The group's net position is short 814
contracts; not much conviction there.  Same thing with small
traders; they're long a full 68 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
04/16/02       32,024     35,723    (3,699)   (5.5%)
04/30/02       34,591     35,933    (1,342)   (9.7%)
05/07/02       38,338     39,152      (814)   (1.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   7,774  - 12/21/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
04/16/02       12,458    10,572     1,878      8.2% 
04/30/02       12,271    12,703     (432)      1.7%
05/07/02       13,229    13,161        68      0.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders remained flat during the most recent reporting
period.  The group added a few longs and shorts.  Small traders
grew more aggressive on the bearish side by bringing their net
position to short 4,700 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/16/02       19,080    14,267    4,813     14.4% 
04/30/02       17,275    13,341    3,934     12.8%
05/07/02       19,967    14,045    5,922     17.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
04/16/02        5,644     9,448    (3,804)   (25.2%) 
04/30/02        5,813     8,869    (3,056)   (20.8%)
05/07/02        5,124     9,831    (4,707)   (31.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                          05-16-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  SNE, TTN

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bullish Play:      DCN
  Bullish Play Updates:  DCX, GR, LTR, MHK, RKY, SGR, SII, TBL
  Bearish Play Updates:  DHR, TSG

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Play:      CCK

Split Trader
                         
                         BER:  3-for-2 split announcement
                         MMC:  2-for-1 split announcement
                         PMI:  2-for-1 split announcement
                         SRCL: 2-for-1 split announcement
                         STJ:  2-for-1 split announcement

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Sony - SNE - close: 56.48 change: +0.33 stop: 52.99 

We reported on Tuesday that Sony had cut the price of its popular 
PlayStation2, anticipating a similar move by Microsoft on its 
competitive product, Xbox.  Yesterday, Microsoft dropped the Xbox 
price to $199, matching PlayStation2.  Mr. Softy's move 
encouraged positive brokerage comments on the electronic games 
sector today, benefiting not only MSFT but also stocks like ERTS 
and SNE.  SNE now has very minimal near-term resistance at 
$57.10.  Once above this level we expect the stock will then be 
headed toward the $60.00 to $61.00 level.  The technicals all 
remain positive, and attractive.  New positions can be initiated 
once the $57.10 resistance is taken out with a close above that 
level.

Picked on April 4th at $53.01
Gain since picked:      +3.47
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (confirmed)




---

Titan Corporation - TTN - cls: 23.10 chg: -0.05 stop: 21.99 

We might as well just leave the same sentence up for each update 
on TTN: "Titan receives new government contract."  The company 
announced, AGAIN, that it had received a $100 million contract, 
this time from the US Army.  The contract runs through 2007 and 
involves the procurement of various communications equipment and 
services for the Army's Communications & Electronics Command.  
TTN's price has been struggling in and around the $23 region, and 
we have seen a very modest slump in daily volume.  With that 
said, though, technical indictors on both our daily and weekly 
price charts remain decidedly positive, supporting the notion of 
higher prices in coming weeks.

Picked on April 15th at $21.26
Change since picked:     +1.84
Earnings Date         04/25/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT New Plays
===============

  ----------------
  New Bullish Play
  ----------------

Dana Corp. - DCN - close: 21.72 change: +0.92 stop: see text

Company Description:
Dana is a major supplier of components and products for 
automobiles and other vehicles.  The company not only markets its 
products to auto manufacturers, to be used in the production of 
new automobiles, but also to after market enterprises.  

Why We Like It:
Dana is part of the cyclical complex, a company who's fortunes 
are tied to the performance of the US economy.  It's no surprise 
that its stock was bludgeoned in the last few years, with its 
price dropping from a 1998 high near $60 to today's close of 
$21.72.  We have been watching the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index 
(CYC) recently, and believe that this index, like the Dow Jones 
Industrial Index, is on the verge of another healthy breakout. 
Dana's chart looks similar. Dana informed analysts on Wednesday 
evening that it expects earnings to now be in the range of $0.33-
$0.35 per share for its second quarter, rather than the previous 
forecast of $0.28.  This improvement in guidance gave the stock a 
strong price boost today of over 4%, and this move represents an 
important breakout after a two month sideways consolidation.  
Today's breakout was accompanied by a large volume spike. Other 
impressive technical factors are these: the RSI, Stochastic 
Oscillator and MACD are all positive, or turning positive, on 
both our daily and weekly charts.  Technically and fundamentally 
we consider this to be a very attractive long play.  Long 
positions could be taken on a move above today's high ($21.85), 
with a stop placed below near-term support at $19.95.  However, 
our official trigger point will be $22.26, since the $22 level 
could be temporary resistance.  We want to catch it on the 
breakout.  Expect this play to be triggered in the next few 
trading sessions.

Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:  +0.00
Earnings Date      04/17/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

DaimlerChrysler - DCX - close: 47.80 change: -0.13 stop: 44.66

A wage deal between the German employers association and the IG 
Metal unions was minted on Wednesday night.  Although this should 
put an end to many of the strikes currently plaguing German 
industry, shareholders of DCX responded with a collective yawn.  
Shares briefly traded to a near-term high of $48.39 and finished 
the day with a fractional loss.  On a technical basis, DCX 
continues to look ripe for a breakout.  A close above today's 
high could present an entry point for traders still looking to go 
long.

Picked on May 6th at $46.50 
Gain since picked:    +1.30
Earnings Date      02/20/02 (confirmed)




---

Goodrich Corp - GR - close: 32.53 change: +0.19 stop: 30.97 

Goodrich's Chairman and CEO addressed CSFB's Aerospace & Defense 
Finance Conference on Wednesday, May 15th.  The executive told 
participants that the company continues to expect 2002 per-share 
earnings of $2.45 to $2.55 from continuing operations after it 
completes, in May, a planned spin-off of its industrial products 
business. Thomson Financial/First Call currently shows consensus 
estimates for 2002 earnings of $ 2.46 a share after the spin-off.  
This suggests to us that GR may be on track to beat current 
profit projects for 2002. At a technical level, GR has been able 
to close above its 50-dma for the last 7 trading sessions; we 
feel it is likely to use this ma as a springboard for higher 
stock prices in coming weeks.  Traders should take note, however:  
The stock has a resistance region at $33.25-$34.00.  This may 
cause the shares to consolidate briefly when the stock reaches 
this region.

Picked on May 3rd at $31.97
Gain since picked:    +0.56
Earnings Date      04/24/02 (confirmed)




---

Loews Corporation - LTR - cls: 58.95 chg: -0.20 stop: 58.45

Shares of LTR moved lower today for the third straight session.  
Although LTR declined by only $0.20, we're a bit concerned that 
it closed under 50-dma for the second day in a row.  This moving 
average had acted as support since early April.  On a more 
bullish note, the stock closed near the $59 support level.  We're 
looking for LTR to reverse course and bounce back over the 50-
dma.  Our stop-loss at $58.45 should protect us from a more 
significant decline if this rebound does not occur.  The 
insurance sector as a whole was somewhat directionless today, 
with ALL, PGR, and PRU all posting small losses. In addition to 
hotels and some other industrial interests (like DO), Loews has a 
large insurance subsidiary (in CNA).

Picked on May 7th at $60.50 
Gain since picked:    +1.55
Earnings Date      05/09/02 (confirmed)




---

Mohawk Industries - MHK - close: 65.02 change: -1.89 stop: 62.98 

Housing stocks were hit with a round of selling after this 
morning's economic data was released.  Housing starts in April 
came in at 1.55 million, versus the consensus estimate of 1.63 
million.  Building permits, which are considered a leading 
indicator, actually rose 0.3%.  Although the latter figure would 
seem to suggest a continued demand in the homebuilding group, 
investors used housing starts data as an excuse to take profits.  
The DJUSHB home construction index suffered a 2.6% loss, while 
MHK dropped 2.8% on the news.  Shares are currently in "no-mans-
land" between support at the 50-dma ($63.54) and resistance at 
$68.  A 60-minute chart shows that shares have traced a head-and-
shoulders formation.  Although we're not overly concerned by this 
development, we would not recommend new entries at this time. 

Picked on May 3rd at $66.30
Gain since picked:    -1.28
Earnings Date      04/15/02 (confirmed) 




---

Adolph Coors - RKY - close: 67.70 change: +0.42 stop: 63.89

Shares of RKY bubbled higher yesterday after Thomas Weisel said 
Coors is their top pick in the beverage sector.  The stock 
continued its ascent today with a 42-cent gain, but wasn't quite 
able to close above resistance at $68.  Overall, it looks like 
the recent dip to the rising 50-dma was a positive development 
for the bulls.  In addition to confirming that level of support, 
the decline also allowed RKY to "blow off some steam" in an 
orderly fashion.  The daily stochastic oscillator (5,3,3) has 
moved out of the oversold band and possess ample room to run.  
The last attempt to break out above $68 was not accompanied by a 
bullish stochastic reading.  Although traders can consider new 
entries on a close above $68, those who are more cautious may 
want to wait for RKY to move over the near-term high of $69.25.
 
Picked on May 2nd at $68.36
Gain since picked:    -0.66
Earnings Date      04/25/02 (confirmed) 




--- 

Shaw Group - SGR - cls: 34.13 chg: -1.00  stop: *see text* 

Our trade in SGR came very close today to being triggered.  We 
noted on Tuesday that we'd step into a long position in this 
industrial corporation once it moved above its resistance price 
of $35.75.  Today, it reached $35.70, then turned back down.  At 
a technical level, SGR continues to demonstrate good price 
strength in our momentum indicators: RSI, Stochastics and MACD.  
Our strategy remains unchanged: we'll buy at or above $35.75; 
once the trade is in play, we'll use a sell stop of $31.95.  On 
May 6th Shaw was raised to a "strong buy" by Frost Securities. In 
related recent brokerage action, Credit Lyonnais Securities 
initiated coverage of Shaw on April 24th with a "buy" on the 
stock.

Picked on May xxth at $ xx.xx <-see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/15/02 (confirmed)
 

 

---

Smith Intl - SII - close: 74.62 change: +1.39 stop: 71.29

If you were following the oil sector on Tuesday, you're probably 
already aware of the sector's precipitous afternoon sell-off.  
The price of oil (cl02m) declined sharply on false rumors that 
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez had been assassinated.  Also 
pressuring the group were incorrect reports of British troops in 
Iraq.  SII (which had already gapped down after a downgrade from 
Deutsche Securities) moved lower with the sector and by the end 
of the session had given back the previous two days' gains.  
Today's price action was more bullish.  Although oil continued 
lower, SII finished with a 1.89% gain and outperformed the OSX.X 
(oil service index).  We're looking for continued sector strength 
to propel shares above the relative high of $77.45, which would 
clear the way for a test of the $80 level.

Picked on April 26th at $71.29 
Gain since picked:       +3.33
Earnings Date         05/02/02 (confirmed)


 

--- 

Timberland Company - TBL - cls: 42.11 chg: -0.05 stop: 39.95 

TBL moved higher with the retail sector on Tuesday but has since 
pulled back and retraced a large chunk of those gains.  Shares 
moved fractionally lower today after a brief jaunt under the $42 
level.  Technically, we're still waiting for TBL to move above 
$42.75 and begin filling in the April 18th gap.  New entries can 
be evaluated on a move above this level, with a near-term price 
target of $44-$46.  We'd also like to see the MACD (which has 
gone flat at the baseline) begin to curl higher.

Picked on May 3rd at $41.89 
Gain since picked:    +0.22
Earnings Date      04/18/02 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Danaher Corp. - DHR - close: 71.97 change: +0.24 stop: 73.01

Our short play in DHR continues to attempt to build a head and 
shoulders topping pattern on our weekly charts.  In recent days 
the stock has enjoyed a rebound along with the market. As of 
tonight DHR sits right on top of its 50-dma which is no longer 
trending higher but which has started to move flat.  Naturally 
we'll be watching to see if DHR begins trading beneath this 
support region on Friday or Monday.  We would not encourage new 
short positions in DHR until it is again trading beneath this 
level.  

Picked on May 13th at $69.03
Gain since picked:     -2.94
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed) 




--- 

Sabre Holdings Corp - TSG - cls: 39.42 chg: -0.36 stop: 42.01

It has been tough the last few days holding short positions in a 
market which has enjoyed renewed strength.  Although TSG 
rebounded with the market on Wednesday, it struggled on Thursday, 
ending lower and we still have about a 1% gain in this short 
position. TSG closed below the 50-dma today, but we'll want to 
see the stock trade below it's Tuesday close of $38.74 within the 
next day or two.  The technical reasons we want to see such a 
close include this:  a close below $38.74 should turn the 
Bollinger Bands downward again, and this is an important 
indicator of lower short term prices.  Please remember that we 
use modified parameters on our Bollingers: a 5-dma rather than 
the standard 20-dma, and a standard deviation of 1.7 rather than 
2.0.  Volume has been fading on both positive and negative days;
we view this as a constructive element for our short position.

Picked on May 13th at $39.74
Gain since picked:     +0.32
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR New Plays
===============

  ----------------
  New Bullish Play
  ----------------

Crown Cork Seal - CCK - close: 9.98 change: +0.37 stop: see text

Company Description:
Crown Cork & Seal is a leading supplier of packaging products to 
consumer marketing companies around the world. World headquarters 
are located in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (source: company website)

Why We Like It:
Shareholders of CCK have been on an incredible ride over the past 
six months.  Since bottoming at $0.83 (yes, that's 83 cents) in 
December, the stock has seen an astounding ramp-up in its price.  
From early-December to its mid-April high, CCK increased 13-fold.  
Most recently, shares have pulled back to the 50-dma just under 
the $10 level.  At this point you may be wondering, "What the 
heck are these guys doing going long on this stock?  It's so 
over-extended."  Well, we'd certainly agree that CCK could be due 
for some more profit-taking.  However, we also believe that the 
recent dip has created an attractive risk/reward setup for this 
short-term high-risk/reward long play.  The rising 50-dma has 
acted as support over the past week, which indicates that at 
least some of the weak hands may have been shaken out during the 
pullback.  Meanwhile, the daily stochastics (5,3,3) are bullishly 
moving higher from deeply oversold levels.  Fundamentally 
speaking, CCK reported earnings on April 18th that came in two 
cents better than analyst expectations.  They still reported a 
larger year-over-year loss, but investors seem to be more focused 
on the prospect of a turnaround in business.  One analyst felt 
that CCK was attractive on a valuation basis with shares trading 
at only three times cash flow.  In terms of sector strength, the 
FPP.X forest/paper index looks poised to breakout above the 380 
level.  We'd expect that continued strength in the group would 
rub off on CCK.  If shares bounce from the 50-dma, we're 
anticipating a near-term move to the $12 level.  Our trigger at 
$10.31 (a penny above today's high) is an attempt to ensure that 
the stock is actually bouncing before we go long.  The play will 
be activated if CCK trades at or above this level.  If triggered, 
our stop-loss will be set at $9.10, just below the near-term low.  
More aggressive traders may want to have their stop below the 
$9.00 level.

Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:  +0.00
Earnings Date      04/18/02 (confirmed)
 




==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

W.R. Berkley declares 3-for-2 stock split, regular dividend

After the market closed today, the W.R. Berkley Corp (NYSE: BER) 
announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock 
split.

The split is expected to be issued on July 2, 2002 to shareholders
of record on June 17, 2002.  The Board also declared a regular 
quarterly cash dividend of $.13/share.  The dividend will be paid 
on July 2, 2002 to shareholders of record on June 17, 2002.

BER most recently split in 1997; also a 3-for-2 offering.  YTD, 
the stock has risen by approximately 11%.

Shares closed at $59.47 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=BER


About the company
Founded in 1967, W. R. Berkley Corporation is an insurance holding 
company which operates in five segments of the property casualty 
insurance business: specialty insurance, alternative markets, 
reinsurance, regional property casualty insurance and 
international. (source: company press release)

---

Marsh McLennan sets 2-for-1 split, boosts dividend

After the market opened this morning, Marsh & McLennan Companies, 
Inc. (MMC) announced that its Board of Directors had declared a 2-
for-1 stock split.  

The split will be payable on June 28, 2002 to shareholders of 
record on June 7, 2002.  The Board also raised the company's 
quarterly dividend from $.53/share to $.56/share.  This represents 
a 5.7% increase.  The dividend will be paid on August 15, 2002 to 
stockholders of record on July 9, 2002.

MMC most recently split in 1998; a 3-for-2 offering.  

The stock closed at $101.50 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=MMC


About the company
MMC is a global professional services firm with annual revenues of 
$10 billion. It is the parent company of Marsh Inc., the world's 
leading risk and insurance services firm; Putnam Investments, one 
of the largest investment management companies in the United 
States; and Mercer Consulting Group, a major global provider of 
consulting services.
(source: company press release)

---

PMI Group announces 2-for-1 stock split

Shortly after lunchtime today, the PMI Group, Inc. (NYSE: PMI) 
announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock 
split.  

The split will take the form of a 100% stock dividend and will be 
payable on June 17, 2002 to stockholders of record on May 31, 
2002.  The Board also increased the quarterly cash dividend to 
$0.025 cents/share (post-split.)   

PMI last split in 1999.  Shares have risen 28% in 2002 and are 
currently trading at all-time highs.

The stock closed at $85.95 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=PMI


About the company
The PMI Group, Inc. is headquartered in San Francisco and is one
of the largest providers of mortgage credit enhancement in the 
world. The PMI Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides 
private mortgage insurance in the United States, Australia, New 
Zealand and Europe, and mortgage guaranty reinsurance in Hong 
Kong. (source: company press release) 

---

Stericycle declares 2-for-1 stock split

Shortly after the market opened this morning, Stericycle Inc. 
(NASDAQ: SRCL) announced that its Board of Directors had approved 
a 2-for-1 stock split.  

The split will be payable on May 31 to shareholders of record on 
May 16.   

SRCL has not split since it began trading in 1996.  YTD, shares 
have risen by roughly 15%

The stock closed at $72.96 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=SRCL


About the company
Stericycle provides medical waste collection, transportation, 
treatment and disposal services and safety and compliance programs 
to healthcare companies nationwide, including hospitals, physician 
and dental offices, laboratories and clinics. 
(source: company press release)

---

St. Jude Medical prescribes 2-for-1 stock split

Before the opening bell this morning, St. Jude Medical, Inc. 
(NYSE: STJ) announced that its Board of Directors had declared a 
2-for-1 stock split.

The split will take the form of a 100% dividend and will by 
payable on June 28, 2002 to stockholders of record on June 10, 
2002.

This will be the seventh split in the company's history.  The most 
recent split was a 3-for-2 offering in 1995.  Reflecting a bullish 
trend in the healthcare sector, STJ has risen sharply from its 
September lows and is currently trading near its all-time highs.

The stock closed at $82.47 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=STJ


About the company
St. Jude Medical, Inc. is dedicated to the design, manufacture and 
distribution of innovative medical devices of the highest quality, 
offering physicians, patients and payers unmatched clinical performance 
and demonstrated economic value. (source: company press release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

TYC     Tyco Intl. Ltd             20.56     +1.14
KTC     KT Corp                    23.56     +1.24
NFS     Nationwide Fncl Srvcs Inc  44.09     +0.94
ASCA    Ameristar Casinos Inc      29.65     +1.10
GGB     Gerdau Sa ADS              13.25     +0.54
CNTE    Centene Corp               25.60     +0.60

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

FRO     Frontline Ltd ADR          12.73     +0.70
PEGA    Pegassystems Inc            9.19     +0.79
USAP    Universal Stain & Alloy    16.15     +0.80
CMH     Clayton Homes Inc          18.77     +1.12
OPWV    Openwave Systems Inc        6.70     +1.03
CAO     CSK Auto Corp              15.96     +1.15

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

NYT     The New York Times Co      50.89     +1.34
WSH     Willis Group Holdings Ltd  31.00     +2.24
WTW     Weight Watchers Intl. Inc  43.95     +1.05
DDS     Dillards Inc               29.37     +2.18
CCRN    Cross Country              34.83     +2.28
TRF     Templeton Russia Fund      26.02     +1.92

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ABT     Abbott Labs                45.75     -1.15
DUK     Duke Energy Corp           34.70     -1.49
D       Dominion Resources Inc     61.64     -3.13
TXU     TXU Corp                   52.18     -1.42
ADVP    AdvancePCS                 26.98     -1.76
FLR     Fluor Corp                 36.05     -1.58

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

LXK     Lexmark Intl               60.19     -2.31
SLGN    Silgan Holdings Inc        40.50     -1.83
CW      Curtiss Wright Corp        77.20     -1.75
MTEC    Meridian Medical Tech      35.21     -5.31
RTN     Raytheon Co                42.99     -1.44



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