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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 05/21/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 05-21-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Home Depot Painted Cautious Outlook and Retailers Suffered
Market Sentiment: Crazy Commodities, Indifferent Investors
Play-of-the-Day:  The Storage Sector Blues


-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------        
      05-21-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10105.71 -123.80 10292.95 10086.55 1.17 bln   1135/2012
NASDAQ   1664.18 - 37.40  1717.93  1660.22 1.44 bln   1273/2254
S&P 100   538.28 -  7.00   549.56   537.81   Totals   2408/4266
S&P 500  1079.88 - 12.00  1099.55  1079.08
RUS 2000  495.46 -  7.71   504.89   494.27
DJ TRANS 2702.78 - 58.60  2773.05  2699.66
VIX        22.56 +  1.00    23.23    20.62
VXN        44.65 +  1.77    44.96    42.63
TRIN        1.19
PUT/CALL    0.90

-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Home Depot painted cautious outlook and retailers suffered

Stocks looked ready to trade bullish as today's trading session 
got underway, but a late-morning conference call from Dow 
component Home Depot (NYSE:HD) $44.90 -7.42% and words of caution 
regarding the company's cautious outlook, ended up painting a 
picture that had a yellow brick road turning to a dusty pothole 
laden road by the session's end.

In the early going, 27 of the 30 Dow components were trading in 
positive territory, but by session's end, just 8 components 
finished with gains.

Home Depot Chart - Daily Interval




Breaks above or below the longer-term 200-day moving average are 
noteworthy, especially when those break come on heavy volume.  
Today's break below HD's 200-day came on 22 million shares, which 
is roughly 3-times more than its average daily volume.  

The supply/demand picture for Home Depot (HD) is still longer-
term bullish as the stock still trades above bullish support 
trend, but the bearish vertical count of $39 is hint that there 
could be further downside in the stock.  The pattern of lower 
highs and lower lows gives the look of institutional distribution 
in the stock.

Home Depot Chart - $1 box




There are starting to be some similarities show up in the point 
and figure chart of HD that dates back to last August (red 8) and 
September (red 9) when HD broke below bullish support after 
previously establishing a bearish count of $38.  One could 
imagine that the stock was "destined" to trade that bearish count 
prior to the terrorist attacks that drove the stock to an 
ultimate low of $31.

Bulls will argue that the economy is stronger today than that 
found in August of last year, but with Home Depot (HD) issuing a 
cautionary outlook on the economy and not giving any upside 
guidance to near-term quarterly earnings, today's upside 
earning's surprise left little cheer in a bull's heart.

Losing out to Lowe's?

Yesterday, Home Depot's main competitor Lowe's Companies 
(NYSE:LOW) $46.13 -1.43% also reported better than expected 
earnings as sales rose 23% compared to a 17% rise in sales at 
Home Depot.  

Lowe's (LOW) also gave slightly more bullish outlook going 
forward saying it saw a 4% to 6% gain in upcoming same store 
sales, compared to guidance of 2% to 4% same store sales growth 
from Home Depot.  

Home Depot's Chief Financial officer Carol Tome told reporters in 
an interview that the retailer was comfortable with its annual 
revenue growth targets of 15-18%, but conceded that same-store 
sales were a market concern.  But she said her company (HD) and 
Lowe's (LOW) are "really not the same business" when it comes to 
comparable-store performance.  "We have a much bigger geographic 
base of stores," Tome said.  "Our geography is so much different 
than Lowe's, that they don't have the same issues that we do."

Home Depot (HD) operates 1,386 stores in the U.S., Canada and 
Mexico, while Lowe's (LOW) has 785 stores in 42 U.S. states.

Analysts will point out that Home Depot and Lowe's are at 
different stages in their growth cycle, with Lowe's building its 
presence by adding stores in major metropolitan markets, while 
Home Depot is cutting back store growth as its store base 
matures.

Lowe's Chart - $0.50 & $1 box




I think it would be "premature" to jump to a conclusion that 
today's bearish action in Home Depot (HD) was a vote by the 
market about the economy.  I do think however that there were 
some "growth" investors bailing out of the stock when HD didn't 
give a robust outlook for same store sales near-term.  The point 
and figure chart of Lowe's (LOW) does resemble that of stock that 
is indeed at more of a growth phase in its cycle.

In "marketing terms" there are various cycles that a product or 
business model will undergo.  Home Depot's challenge going 
forward will be to leverage its size and ability to cut costs in 
order to increase margins as it has a footprint in many markets 
throughout North America.  Lowe's on the other hand is seeking 
new markets that it does not yet occupy and give Home Depot a run 
for consumer's business.

Both Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) reported upside earnings, 
but right now, Lowe's looks to be the "growth" stock.  Trader's 
that are attempting to monitor the MARKET'S perception of the 
economy at the consumer level and perhaps the home improvement 
level should also be using the stock of LOW as a basis of 
observation.

Both Home Depot and Lowe's are components of the Retail HOLDRS 
(AMEX:RTH) $96.90 -3.1% that we just recently added to our weekly 
sector list.  Today's cautious comments regarding Home Depot's 
view of the economy as it relates to its business had far 
reaching effect.  Not one of the stocks that comprise the Retail 
HOLDRS (RTH) finished in positive territory.

Retail HOLDRS hypothetical portfolio from 12/31/01




I set up a hypothetical portfolio of the Retail HOLDRS (RTH) 
benchmarked from their December 31st close.  The above list is 
then sorted by % profit/loss for the current year.  Everything to 
the right of the vertical blue line, is data based on the 
December 31st close.  The # of shares, is the same as outlined 
per the Retail HOLDRS per AMEX.  Those with a larger "cost" 
column could be though of as having a greater weight or impact on 
how the sector performs over time.  Just as we've done in the 
past with the Dow Industrials hypothetical portfolio, a 
trader/investor could "label" some of the various retailing 
components.  

Birds of a feather flocking together

While today's selling in the group was broad I will note that the 
"grocers" like Albertson's (ABS), Kroger (KR) and Safeway (SWY) 
traded just fractionally lower.  While these stocks are not 
really indicative of the economy, its interesting that they 
didn't manage to dodge some of the bearishness brought to the 
retailers today.

It's also interesting to note that "drugstore chains" CVS 
Corporation (CVS) $33.05 -2.16% and Walgreen Company (WAG) $37.70 
-1.04% have nearly identical year-to-date performance as both 
stocks are up about 12% this year.  Walgreen's (WAG) looks 
technically stronger as the stock had recently violated its 
bearish resistance trend on the point and figure chart, and 
trades above its curling higher 200-day moving average, which 
resides just below at $36.00.  CVS still trades below its bearish 
resistance trend, while its 200-day moving average is still 
trending lower at the $31.25 level.

While I did say that Home Depot may be at a more "mature" stage 
of its business cycle, that doesn't necessarily mean a stock 
can't be a good performer.  Sears Roebuck (S) $55.64 -1.52% is 
hardly considered to be the "new kid on the block," yet it has 
been one of the better performers year-to-date.

One thing that is a bit concerning when looking at Home Depot and 
Lowe's is that neither stock is showing a gain year-to-date.  
While a great deal of mortgage refinancing took place in recent 
months and earnings have been strong for both Home Depot and 
Lowe's, we should monitor both closely near-term.  Further 
weakness could hint that the consumer is either changing their 
spending habits or once again drawing in their purse strings.

The recently released consumer confidence numbers showed gains, 
but any continued weakness, especially in Home Depot (HD) could 
be hint that the MARKET believes that its not just Home Depot's 
business that is maturing, but also the spending habits of 
consumers.

Play list has a "retailer"

We're keeping a close eye on shares of Timberland (NYSE:TBL) 
$40.51 -3.59% as this manufacturer/retailer of footwear and 
apparel came under some selling pressure with the broader 
retailing group today.  The stock has found buyers near the 
$40.00 level in the past and I think we need to see a rebound in 
retailing stocks near-term if the stock is to hold above our stop 
at $39.95.  

Timberland Chart - Daily Interval




Shares of Timberland (TBL) tried to make a bullish move yesterday 
and came very close to the 61.8% retracement level from my 
"fitted" retracement.  The stock has found buyers in the past 
right near the 50% retracement level.  Today's decline most 
likely was in sympathy with the broader retailing category and 
not necessarily "stock specific."  Regardless, we'll keep a tight 
stop under the $40 level as a break there along with any further 
weakness in the retailers could have the stock vulnerable to the 
$36.70 level or starting to round higher 200-day MA at $36.09.  
MACD indicator is rather "neutral" right now, but starting to 
round ever so fractionally lower.  Only a bounce near current 
levels will have MACD kicking higher and giving a bullish trader 
the needed price action to stay long the stock.

No economic data until Thursday

There is no economic data scheduled for release tomorrow, but 
traders and investors will be on the alert Thursday morning when 
April Durable Goods orders are to be released.  Economists are 
looking for Durable Goods order to show a 0.4% gain, compared to 
a -0.5% decline in March.  Durable goods has shown a gain in 3 of 
the past 4 months, spurred by gains in the transportation sector.  
Excluding transportation, orders are expected to show a decline 
for a 5th consecutive month, reflecting continued investment 
contraction.

Also scheduled on Thursday morning before the opening bell will 
be initial jobless claims for the week ending Friday, May 18th.  
Economists are looking for a 410,000 reading, which would be 
below the previous week's 418,000 level.  The 4-week average of 
continued claims reached a 19-year high, partially due to the 
government extending unemployment benefits.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

Crazy Commodities, Indifferent Investors
By Eric Utley

Is one segment of the market smarter than another?  Some suggest,
and I believe, that the bond market is smarter than the stock
market.  But what about the commodity markets?

The Commodities Research Board (CRB) Index ($CRB.X) closed
slightly lower Tuesday, but is still looking pretty bullish over
the intermediate-term.  I can foresee a big unwinding to the
upside in this index over the next two or three months.  More
precisely, though, let's take a look at two of the more telling
commodities markets: gold and oil.

June crude was off by $1 per barrel today following the
American Petroleum Institute's report of a build-up in
inventories.  While Tuesday's drop was a big move, bigger
picture analysis shows us that oil is trading north of $27
per barrel, and well above last year's highs.

Meanwhile, gold -- as measured by both the metal and equities --
hit yet another multi-year high during today's trading.  June
gold hit $316.60 an ounce, while the Gold and Silver Index
($XAU.X) graced the best performing sector spot with its
advance above the 85 level.

What I found perplexing about Tuesday's polarity in oil and
gold is that the latter's move was rationalized by the talk
of further terrorist attacks.  So why didn't oil respond?
Maybe that's a moot point when considering only a one day
move, but something worth further observation nonetheless.

Bigger picture, however, oil is a whole heck of a lot closer
to yearly highs than lows; gold is at yearly highs.  But
fear, as measured by the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX.X),
is trading closer to yearly lows.

We observed nine month trend of the market's sentiment
yet again last week when the VIX imploded on the first sign
of strength in the OEX.  The VIX's move higher today was
also rationalized by the terrorism threat, but also on the
weakness in stocks.

What I can't figure out is why the VIX isn't higher with all
the gloomy talk about, specifically the threat of an attack
on the Statue of Liberty or the Brooklyn Bridge.  Heck, that
scares me.  But it's not frightening the market by the
magnitude I would expect.

Either one or more of the markets I track every day has got it
wrong.  There's no conclusion to tonight's sentiment, because
this story is still being written, and where it ends from here
even I can't guess.  But I think the relationship between oil,
gold, and fear will lead us down the road.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     : 10106

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10175
 50-dma: 10231
200-dma:  9904

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1080

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1086
 50-dma: 1113
200-dma: 1120

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1256

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1276
 50-dma: 1355
200-dma: 1459


Gold and Silver ($XAU)

There's a lot of emotion at play in the $XAU, and it's
primarily fear.  Further terrorist warnings fueled today's
rally, which saw the $XAU hit another multi year high.  The
index earned the day's best performing sector spot with its
2.15 percent rally.

Gold equities on the move higher included Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI) -
the stock recently moved to the NYSE, previously trading on the
Nasdaq under the ticker GOLD - Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM),
Harmony Gold (NASDAQ:HGMCY), and Anglogold (NYSE:AU).

52-week High: 85
52-week Low : 49
Current     : 85

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 79
 50-dma: 72
200-dma: 61


Internet ($INX)

The $INX earned the day's worst performing sector spot with its
nearly 4 percent slide.  There wasn't a lot of news from the
group, and there was an interesting pattern among the index's
poorest performing components for the day.  There's a theme
here, see if you can spot it.

The worst performing components included CMGI (NASDAQ:CMGI),
Inktomi (NASDAQ:INKT), Earthlink (NASDAQ:ELNK), and InfoSpace
(NASDAQ:INSP).  Other movers included Overture Services
(NASDAQ:OVER) and Check Point (NASDAQ:CHKP).

52-week High: 243
52-week Low :  76 
Current     :  97

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  96
 50-dma: 105
200-dma: 117

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

Fear returned to the OEX, evidenced by the rise in the VIX
Tuesday.  But it's not trading where you might expect given the
frequency of talk about further terrorist attacks.  I can't
rationalize it, this remains a complacent market.

The VXN, which didn't breakdown with the gusto of the VIX last
week, rebounded today to the tune of about 4 percent.  The
daily chart of the VXN shows a nice pattern of relatively
lower highs, which in a way confirms the weakness in the NDX.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 22.56 +1.00
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 44.58 +1.70

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.90        482,992       434,205
Equity Only    0.71        403,203       288,899
OEX            1.14         17,797        20,344
QQQ            0.77         46,002        35,202

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          63      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    46      - 4     Bull Confirmed
DOW           67      + 0     Bear Correction
S&P 500       65      + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       66      + 1     Bear Correction

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.06
10-Day Arms Index  1.11
21-Day Arms Index  1.26
55-Day Arms Index  1.26

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1138           2030
NASDAQ    1270           2253

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      80             33
NASDAQ    92             96

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,183
NASDAQ   1,659

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 05/14/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

S&P commercials reverted to their bearish commitments by reducing
their longs and adding to shorts.  Small traders grew more bullish
by adding a large amount of longs; small traders are 3,000
contracts away from their most bullish reading of the year.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
04/30/02      340,936   421,673   (80,737)  (10.6%)
05/07/02      348,019   422,801   (74,782)   (9.7%)
05/14/02      343,941   424,893   (80,952)  (12.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/30/02      153,158     56,372   96,786     46.2%
05/07/02      154,664     59,583   95,081     44.4%
05/14/02      163,035     58,587  104,448     49.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials shifted to a decidedly bullish position last
week by adding longs and dropping shorts.  Commercials are net
long more than 5,000 contracts.  Small traders meanwhile went in
the opposite direction by establishing a position that was net
short more than 5,000 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
04/30/02       34,591     35,933    (1,342)   (9.7%)
05/07/02       38,338     39,152      (814)   (1.1%)
05/14/02       40,858     35,761      5,097   (5.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   7,774  - 12/21/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
04/30/02       12,271    12,703     (432)      1.7%
05/07/02       13,229    13,161        68      0.3%
05/14/02       11,920    17,479    (5,559)     8.2% 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow commercials added a few more longs than shorts for an
increase in the group's net bullish position.  Small traders
went in the opposite direction by reducing their longs and
adding to their shorts.  

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/30/02       17,275    13,341    3,934     12.8%
05/07/02       19,967    14,045    5,922     17.4%
05/14/02       21,080    14,725    6,355     14.4% 

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
04/30/02        5,813     8,869    (3,056)   (20.8%)
05/07/02        5,124     9,831    (4,707)   (31.5%)
05/14/02        4,930    10,899    (5,969)   (25.2%) 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------


===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((new BEARISH play))
===============

Brocade Communications - BRCD - cls: 19.85 chg: -0.82 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Brocade offers the industry's leading intelligent platform for 
networking storage. The world's leading systems, applications, 
and storage vendors have selected Brocade to provide a networking 
foundation for their SAN solutions. The Brocade SilkWorm® family 
of fabric switches and software is designed to optimize data 
availability and storage and server resources in the enterprise. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The NASDAQ-100 has plenty of ugly-looking stocks, but it can be 
tricky finding one that isn't grossly oversold or trading under 
$10 (or a combination thereof!).  We think BRCD is a good short 
candidate because in addition to being technically weak, the 
stock has plenty of downside potential.  The storage sector as a 
whole has had investors singing the blues.  For visual evidence, 
check out the charts for EMC, STK, and NTAP.  BRCD announced 
earnings on May 15th that were in-line with estimates.  This came 
a day after the accidental release of better-than-expected 
revenue numbers during a conference call.  Clerical blunders 
aside, the numbers seemed positive, but investors have spent the 
last week selling the stock.  It seems that Wall Street may not 
share the company's optimistic outlook for future revenues.  BRCD 
is now under the $20 level and in danger of breaking to levels 
not seen since October.  Furthermore, the p-n-f chart is 
signaling a bearish triangle sell signal.  We think shares look 
ripe for a decline to the $18 level.  This is the location of the 
81% retracement from the October lows to January highs.  If this 
level fails, BRCD has no technical support until $13.00.  To make 
sure we don't enter the play until the stock is trading at multi-
month lows, we won't go short until BRCD trades below $19.36.  If 
we're triggered our stop will be placed at $21.26, just above 
today's high.  This is roughly 10% from our entry price.  
Cautious traders could place their stops closer to the $20 level, 
which should act as psychological resistance.

Picked on May xth at   $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        05/15/02 (confirmed)
 





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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 05-21-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/e21b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls     
  New Bearish Plays:     BRCD
  Bullish Play Updates:  SNE
  Bearish Play Updates:  CLS
  Closed Bullish Plays:  TTN

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     BA
  Bullish Play Updates:  CR, DCN, DCX, GR, HRB, MHK, RKY, SGR, SII, TBL
  Bearish Play Updates:  DHR, TSG

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  CCK, LU, PVN

Split Trader
  Stock Splits
                         OZRK: 2-for-1 split announcement
 

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=============
NB New Plays
=============

  ----------------
  New Bearish Play
  ---------------- 

Brocade Communications - BRCD - cls: 19.85 chg: -0.82 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Brocade offers the industry's leading intelligent platform for 
networking storage. The world's leading systems, applications, 
and storage vendors have selected Brocade to provide a networking 
foundation for their SAN solutions. The Brocade SilkWorm® family 
of fabric switches and software is designed to optimize data 
availability and storage and server resources in the enterprise. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The NASDAQ-100 has plenty of ugly-looking stocks, but it can be 
tricky finding one that isn't grossly oversold or trading under 
$10 (or a combination thereof!).  We think BRCD is a good short 
candidate because in addition to being technically weak, the 
stock has plenty of downside potential.  The storage sector as a 
whole has had investors singing the blues.  For visual evidence, 
check out the charts for EMC, STK, and NTAP.  BRCD announced 
earnings on May 15th that were in-line with estimates.  This came 
a day after the accidental release of better-than-expected 
revenue numbers during a conference call.  Clerical blunders 
aside, the numbers seemed positive, but investors have spent the 
last week selling the stock.  It seems that Wall Street may not 
share the company's optimistic outlook for future revenues.  BRCD 
is now under the $20 level and in danger of breaking to levels 
not seen since October.  Furthermore, the p-n-f chart is 
signaling a bearish triangle breakdown.  We think shares look 
ripe for a decline to the $18 level.  This is the location of the 
81% retracement from the October lows to January highs.  If this 
level fails, BRCD has no technical support until $13.00.  To make 
sure we don't enter the play until the stock is trading at multi-
month lows, we won't go short until BRCD trades below $19.36.  If 
we're triggered our stop will be placed at $21.26, just above 
today's high.  This is roughly 10% from our entry price.  
Cautious traders could place their stops closer to the $20 level, 
which should act as psychological resistance.

Picked on May xth at   $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        05/15/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Sony - SNE - close: 58.05 change: +0.40 stop: 55.50 

After a nice four day run upward, the Nikkei finally experienced 
a losing session on Monday.  Although SNE gave back a chunk of 
Friday's strong gains due to the overall weakness in the Nikkei--
as well as the Dow's 100+ loss on Monday--the stock recovered 
nicely on Tuesday.  Part of the reason: Merrill Lynch's Japanese 
office upgraded SNE to a "strong buy" from its previous "neutral" 
rating.  We see nothing in SNE's technical pattern to suggest 
that it is ready to consolidate yet, particularly since the stock 
is now above the $57.10 resistance level.  New long positions can 
be taken in the stock at current levels or on pull backs to the 
$56.50 support area.  Be sure to use the $55.50 sell stop.

Picked on April 4th at $53.01
Gain since picked:      +5.04
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Celestica - CLS - close: 31.25 change: -0.25 stop: 33.21

Our short position in CLS was triggered late this afternoon when 
CLS dipped to $30.92, $0.02 below our trigger of $30.94. Now that 
our CLS position has been activated, we'll employ a buy stop of 
$33.21, a cent above CLS's May 17th high. It is comforting to us 
that CLS has experienced difficulty moving above its declining 
50-dma in recent trading sessions. Technical indicators on CLS, 
like the RSI and Stochastics Oscillator, are also rolling over.  
All of this suggests to us that CLS's price may follow soon.  
This inability to advance supports our short position in this 
stock but we are a bit surprised that shares held up this well 
under the recent market weakness.  

Picked on May 21st at $30.94
Gain since picked:     -0.31
Earnings Date       04/17/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Titan Corporation - TTN - cls: 21.88 chg: -0.67 stop: 21.99 

General weakness in the defense and aerospace sector pulled many 
stocks in this industry down yesterday, as well as today, 
including TTN.  In recent days we had moved our sell stop up in 
order to protect our small gains in this long position, and our 
most recent stop of $21.99 was hit today.  We closed this trade 
out with a $0.73 gain, equal to 3.4%.  At the present time we 
think that the defense and aerospace may be preparing to enter a 
period of consolidation and would discourage new positions in the 
sector until we have a better reading on its direction over the 
next several weeks.  Longer-term investors will want to watch how 
TTN reacts to the 200 and 50-dma just below current levels.

Picked on April 15th at $21.26
Change since picked:     +0.76
Earnings Date         04/25/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=============
AT New Plays
=============

  ----------------
  New Bearish Play
  ---------------- 

Boeing Company - BA - close: 44.35 change: -0.78 stop: 45.80

Company Description:
Boeing Company is a global leader in aerospace and defense.  The 
company's products include commercial airplanes, military 
aircraft, missile systems and space communications like 
satellites.

Why We Like It:
We feel a bit duplicitous suggesting a short position in Boeing 
while simultaneously believing that the Dow Jones Industrial 
Average is on the road to recovery.  But the technical pattern 
forming on BA is simply too staggeringly sexy to disregard, 
particularly with its bodacious risk/reward considerations: $7+ 
of potential gain with less than $1.50 of risk.   Here's the 
skinny on BA: since April 25th, BA has been slowly rising, 
forming a triangular consolidation accompanied by relatively 
uninspiring volume.  This triangle formed after BA's sharp drop 
in price during BA's April 12th to April 25th decline from $50 to 
$41.  Technically, triangles like that on Boeing are usually 
continuation patterns; that is, they continue the previous trend.  
Other technical analysis interpretations actually practice that a 
triangle with higher lows is a bullish formation, but whoa to the 
bull that buys the downside breakout.  These can be painful 
indeed as bears tend to pounce on these signs of weakness. BA's 
triangular pattern has formed just beneath its 50-dma, which 
itself has become a problem since it is no longer rising. Today, 
BA began to break down, and out of, its triangular consolidation 
after failing once again to trade above its 50-dma.  We feel that 
today's decline may be the first move of a process that 
eventually takes BA down to the $37.00 region in coming weeks.  
Now, with all this said, there is one more technical factor that 
needs to be addressed: triangles will sometimes--sometimes--break 
down only to suddenly reverse upward.  While we do not think this 
will be the case with BA, given its inability to move above its 
50-dma, we are nonetheless going to maintain a tight stop on this 
short position. Succinctly, we will cover our short if BA moves 
back into the triangle.  While we are looking for a decent move 
downward we would be negligent if we failed to mention two areas 
of support that bulls may try to defend.  First is the 200-dma 
currently near $42.30.  Second is the region between the April 
lows near $41 and the psychological support level at the $40 
mark.  More conservative bears might want to wait for BA to close 
under its 200-dma before considering positions.  So here are the 
numbers behind our strategy: First of all we're going to short BA 
at current levels but traders might want to consider these two 
potential entry points.  One alternative entry would be a move 
below today's low of $44.11.  A second alternative entry would be 
a failed rally at the $45.00 area.  One thing that we are 
certain, is we will NOT OPEN the play in the newsletter if BA 
gaps above the $45.10 mark at tomorrow's open.  Above $45.10 (or 
even $45.00) would look too dangerous to open a bearish position.  
We will start the play with a tight stop at $45.80, just a few 
cents above today's high. We simply do not want to maintain a 
short position in BA if it moves back into the triangle.

Picked on May 21st at $44.35
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       07/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Crane Corporation - CR - cls: 28.06 chg: -0.11 stop: 26.94

We continue to like the technical indicators surrounding our long 
position in Crane Company.  Yes, this stock moves like a turtle, 
but in this market that is as much a blessing as it is a 
frustration.  CR has support in the $27.65 region, which is just 
above its rising 50-dma ($27.40).  CR may drift downward in 
coming trading sessions toward these support regions, but we will 
look for the stock to rebound off these levels.

Picked on May 17th at $28.22 
Gain since picked:     -0.16
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed)
 



---

H&R Block - HRB - cls: 46.04 chg: +0.00 stop: 44.49

HRB drifted lower during the last two trading sessions, following 
the lead of the overall stock market.  The stock has formed an 
attractive reverse head and shoulders (RHS) bottom pattern on its 
daily chart, and a move above $47.40 should "activate" this 
positive technical formation.  Our Stochastics Oscillator has 
become overbought, and begun to turn downward, suggesting that it 
may still be a few more days until HRB is able to meet the 
challenge of breaking out of the RHS.  Our guess is that it will 
need support from the broader market to accomplish this. In the 
mean time, a bounce off the $45.00 to $45.50 area might be an 
attractive entry point for new longs - just try and catch it on 
the way up, not the way down.

Picked on May 17th at $46.88 
Gain since picked:     -0.84
Earnings Date       06/12/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Shaw Group - SGR - cls: 34.79 chg: -0.11 stop: *see text* 

We are STILL waiting for our long trade in SGR to be triggered; 
our official price for going long is $35.75 (or above).  There 
has been virtually no news on this stock in recent days to help 
push it upward although we almost got triggered again when SGR 
traded to $35.70 in Monday's session.  As we said on Friday, 
since this stock falls into the cyclical sector, the trade is 
unlikely to be triggered until we see the cyclical-heavy Dow 
Jones Industrial Average begin its own rebound.

Picked on May xxth at $ xx.xx <-see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/15/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Goodrich Corp - GR - close: 33.27 change: -0.07 stop: 30.97 

Goodrich enjoyed an upgrade on Monday, May 20th, by Wachovia 
Securities.  The firm raised GR from a "market performer" to a 
"buy". Although GR was able to use this positive mention to buck 
Monday's weakness, it experienced an intraday reversal and GR 
continues to be constrained by the $34.00-$34.50 resistance 
region. As the result of Monday's reversal, it is our opinion 
that GR may undergo a short-term consolidation in coming days 
that brings the stock down to a support/retracement region near 
$32.25. Once GR is able to move above troublesome resistance at 
$34.00-$34.50, it is our forecast that the stock should be headed 
toward a likely Fibonacci "lid" near $37.00.  More aggressive 
traders could attempt to use the expected pull back as a new 
entry point.

Picked on May 3rd at $31.97
Gain since picked:    +1.30
Earnings Date      04/24/02 (confirmed)


 

---

Timberland Company - TBL - cls: 40.51 chg: -1.51 stop: 39.95 

Although retailers Target (TGT) and Home Depot (HD) came in with 
better than expected earnings today, the cautious guidance each 
offered Wall Street concerning subsequent quarters caused 
virtually all retailers--and the general market--to decline 
during Tuesday's trading.  Timberland was caught up in this sell-
off, and today's decline in the stock sent it noticeably below 
its 50-dma.  We're naturally frustrated by this reversal of 
fortune, particularly after TBL announced on Monday that it would 
be buying back up to 4 million shares; generally, such an 
announcement is positive for stock prices since buybacks reduce 
the supply of outstanding stock, increasing EPS numbers.  Forbes 
was favorably impressed with TBL's commitment to buy back its 
stock, ranking Timberland on Monday as one of "Ten Buyback Stocks 
To Buy." We suggested last Friday that more conservative traders 
reduce risk on this trade by upping their sell stop to just under 
$41.00, which would have been triggered during today's trading.  
However, we will continue to leave our official sell stop at 
$39.95.  We would not encourage any new positions in this stock 
at this time.

Picked on May 3rd at $41.89 
Gain since picked:    -1.38
Earnings Date      04/18/02 (confirmed)




---

Dana Corp. - DCN - close: 21.96 change: -0.34 stop: 20.44

Since gapping upward on Thursday and Friday of last week, Dana
has pulled back in unison with the broader market.  Dresdner 
Securities upgraded the auto parts maker today to a "buy", but 
this vote of confidence was unable to lift the stock out of its 
intraday doldrums as it closed down about 1.5%.  The pullback 
seems completely normal after last week's sharp advance, and 
we'll be looking for DCN to find support near the $21.75 level, 
very close to today's low of $21.85.  If the stock is not able to 
rebound at this level, then we'll look for a rebound closer to 
the 50-dma, in the $20.75 region.  Either way, we do not see our 
sell stop being hit by DCN's short-term consolidation.  Chart 
readers will note that the two-day pull back this week has been 
on lighter volume, which doesn't show much conviction and only 
adds to the belief that we're seeing normal profit taking in a 
bullish trend.  A bounce at the $21.00 level would be an 
attractive entry for a new long, but again, we'd consider it on 
the way up, not the way down.

Picked on May 17th at $22.26 
Change since picked:   -0.30
Earnings Date       04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

DaimlerChrysler - DCX - close: 48.97 change: -0.22 stop: 44.66

Shares of DCX continue to consolidate under the $50 level.  The 
stock traded to a high of $50.41 today, but buyers stepped on the 
brakes after the broader market began to weaken.  Nonetheless, it 
was encouraging to see DCX outperform the Dow Jones, and we 
suspect that a broader market rally this week could propel DCX to 
new relative highs.  Entries can be considered on a close over 
$50 or pullback to $48.  The latter scenario would satisfy those 
who want to see last Friday's gap filled before entering a long 
position.

Picked on May 6th at $46.50 
Gain since picked:    +2.47
Earnings Date      02/20/02 (confirmed)



 
---

Mohawk Industries - MHK - cls: 69.00 chg: -0.80 stop: 64.87

Today's orderly 1.1% pullback in MHK on less volume than the 
recent rally attempt could be expected after shares added over 7% 
in just two sessions.  Technically, MHK continues to look strong.  
Yesterday the stock shot above resistance near $68.50 and traded 
to an all-time high of $70.60.  The p-n-f chart is signaling a 
double-top buy signal, and shares have already broken above 
psychological resistance at $70 on an intraday basis.  It was 
also encouraging to see that MHK pulled back to fill in Monday 
morning's gap and proceeded to bounce higher.  On a more bearish 
note, the stock continues to be pressured by the midline of its 
ascending channel.  Traders can consider new entries if shares 
move over $70.60, which is above both the midline and 
psychological resistance at $70.  If shares head higher we'll be 
targeting the $75 level, which coincides with the top of the 
channel.  Also note that last night we tightened our stop to 
$64.87.

Picked on May 3rd at $66.30
Gain since picked:    +2.70
Earnings Date      04/15/02 (confirmed) 




---

Adolph Coors - RKY - close: 67.96 change: +0.07 stop: 63.89

RKY finished today's session with a fractional gain.  That isn't 
too shabby, considering the triple-digit decline on the Dow 
Jones.  We'd been looking for a close over $68, but that level 
may be losing its significance; shares seem to have no trouble 
trading above $68 on an intraday basis.  The oscillators are 
mixed, with the MACD about to signal a bullish crossover and 
daily Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) approaching the overbought 
band.  The bulls also face hurdles at the relative high of $69.25 
and psychological resistance at $70.  The technical picture is 
uncertain, but aggressive traders can consider bullish positions 
if RKY closes above $68.
 
Picked on May 2nd at $68.36
Gain since picked:    +0.40
Earnings Date      04/25/02 (confirmed) 




---

Smith Intl - SII - close: 71.58 change: -1.81 stop: 71.29

Reflecting a similar decline in the price of oil (cl02m), the 
OSX.X shed nearly 2% today.  The index is now hovering just above 
potential support at the 50-dma ($103).  A successful test of 
support by the index should help to stem additional selling in 
SII, which gave back 2.4% today.  Additionally, the daily 
Stochastics (5,3,3) have reached the oversold band, which 
indicates the recent round of selling may be nearing an end.  The 
question is whether the stock can remain above our stop-loss at 
$71.29.  At this point it seems likely that we'll be stopped out 
tomorrow at break-even, but a bounce could prove to be a buying 
opportunity for aggressive bulls.

Picked on April 26th at $71.29 
Gain since picked:       +0.29
Earnings Date         05/02/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Danaher Corp. - DHR - close: 69.25 change: -1.61 stop: 73.01

What a difference two days makes.  In our weekend update, we 
discussed how DHR was displaying a bullish MACD and stochastics, 
and did not seem willing to fall below the 50-dma at $71.80.  
Thus, we were pleased to see the bulls abandon this level on 
Monday.  The stock continued its decline today with a 2.2% loss, 
which in turn caused the aforementioned oscillators to begin 
trending lower.  Given the bearish technical developments, we 
think new entries can be evaluated at current levels, especially 
with the move under $70 again.  However, cautious traders may 
want to wait for shares to fall under the $69 level.  In the news 
on Monday, Hathaway Corp. (HATH) agreed to sell most of its power 
and process segment to DHR for $6.55M.  

Picked on May 13th at $69.03
Gain since picked:     -0.22
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed) 




--- 

Sabre Holdings Corp - TSG - cls: 38.53 chg: +0.58 stop: 40.01

TSG broke its three-day losing streak today.  Although shares 
gained 1.5% and outperformed the broader market, we think another 
round of selling is likely.  The technical picture remains 
bearish, with shares under the 200-dma currently at $39.70.  New 
entries can be evaluated on a failed rally at this level, while 
aggressive traders can also target a move below Monday's low of 
$37.51.  Note that last night we tightened our stop-loss to 
$40.01, above both psychological resistance and the 200-dma.  
Readers know that we find it interesting that TSG is under 
performing its rivals EXPE and ROOM.  One hypothesis is that 
investors may see TSG, with its strong focus on air travel, as 
too closely associated to the whims and misfortunes of the 
airlines.  The XAL.X has not been doing well and the new week has 
not brought any relief to the group.  Considering the fresh spat 
of terrorist warnings, we're not surprised.  The company is 
trying to expand its offerings and revamp its Travelocity site 
but the bearish trend for the stock remains intact.

Picked on May 13th at $39.74
Gain since picked:     +1.21
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Crown Cork Seal - CCK - close: 8.30 change: -0.73 stop: *text*

CCK kicked off the week in bearish fashion, as shares gapped 
under the 50-dma ($9.80) and proceeded to head even lower.  
Today's action was much the same, with shares losing another 8% 
to close at a new relative low.  Since CCK never moved above our 
trigger at $10.31, this play remains inactive.  Because the stock 
tends to be somewhat volatile we'll give it a little more time to 
bounce back.  Another day of weakness will probably earn CCK a 
position on our drop list.  Or being the mavericks that we are 
we'll look at lowering our trigger if shares show sudden strength 
near $8.00.

Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:  +0.00
Earnings Date      04/18/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

Lucent Technologies - LU - close: 4.91 change: +0.09 stop: *text*

On Monday LU came within just two cents of our action point at 
$5.05.  However, the $5 level (which has acted as resistance for 
over two months) proved to be too much for the bulls to handle, 
and the stock dropped 4% today.  The telecom sector may have been 
weighed down with rumors that a rating agency would downgrade 
Qwest's debt to "junk" status.  If shares continue lower we'd 
expect the 50-dma at $4.55 to provide support.  We'll likely drop 
the play if LU closes under this level.
 
Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:  +0.00
Earnings Date      04/22/02 (confirmed) 




---

Providian Financial - PVN - cls: 7.48 chg: +0.28 stop: *text*

Following Monday's successful test of the 50-dma ($7.16), PVN 
moved higher today by nearly 4%.  The relative strength versus 
the broader market was impressive, but shares were unable to move 
above the near-term high at $7.65.  PVN seems to be gravitating 
to the 50% retracement level ($7.40) from the top of the October 
gap to November lows.  Our strategy for entering this play 
remains the same: we'll go long if shares trade at or above 
$7.66, with a stop at $6.99.

Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:  +0.00
Earnings Date      05/06/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

Bank of the Ozarks declares 2-for-1 stock split

After the market closed today, Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. (NASDAQ: 
OZRK) announced that its Board of Directors had authorized a 2-
for-1 stock split.

The split will take the form of a 100% stock dividend and will be 
distributed on June 17, 2002 to stockholders of record on June 3, 
2002.   

This will be the first split for OZRK since it began trading in 
1997.  The stock has almost quadrupled from its 2001 low of 
$10.25, and YTD has gained 56%.

Shares closed at $39.70 on Tuesday. For a current quote, click here:

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=OZRK

About the company
Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. is a bank holding company with $867 
million in total assets as of March 31, 2002.  The Company owns a 
state-chartered subsidiary bank that conducts banking operations 
through 30 offices in 21 communities throughout northern, western 
and central Arkansas and a loan production office in Charlotte, 
North Carolina. (source: company press release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

RJR     RJ Reynolds Tobacco        68.46     +0.96
GSB     Golden State Bancorp       36.50     +0.66
FBP     First Bancorp Holding Co   35.00     +0.55
PRX     Pharmaceutical Resources   23.27     +0.67
WLT     Walter Industries Inc      14.76     +0.66

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SIL     Apex Silver Mines Ltd      17.20     +1.01
RGLD    Royal Gold Inc             14.16     +1.69
VISG    Viisage Technology          6.42     +1.06
TASR    Taser Intl                 18.27     +1.92

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SPLS    Staples Inc                21.88     +1.30
NUE     Nucor Corp                 63.52     +1.72
INVN    Invision Technologies      22.71     +3.42

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

HD      Home Depot Inc             44.90     -3.60
SAP     SAP AG ADS                 27.89     -1.86
XL      XL Capital Ltd             85.95     -1.92
CSX     CSX Corp                   34.02     -1.34
ANF     Abercrombie & Fitch Co     29.21     -1.52
MCY     Mercury General Corp       47.59     -1.24

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

RDN     Radian Group               52.71     -2.49
PMI     The PMI Group              84.96     -1.83
HSC     Harsco Corp                41.35     -1.21
CHS     Chico's FAS Inc            37.90     -3.04
NSIT    Insight Enterprises Inc    26.36     -1.60
AIB     Allied Irish Banks         27.28     -0.32
TLM     Talisman Energy Inc        44.27     -0.51
COH     Coach Inc                  56.90     -2.15



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