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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 05/23/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Thursday 05-23-2002
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Inchworm or Anaconda?
Play-of-the-Day:  Whats This?  "A Triangle."
Market Sentiment: Rally of Substance?


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U.S. Market Numbers
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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
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05-23-2002        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10216.10 + 58.20 10216.10 10087.00 1180 mln   1988/1150
NASDAQ   1697.63 + 24.18  1697.77  1651.89 1536 mln   2028/1417
S&P 100   547.57 +  5.65   547.57   538.73   totals   4016/2567
S&P 500  1097.08 + 11.06  1097.10  1080.55
RUS 2000  501.24 +  7.33   501.34   490.85
DJ TRANS 2762.50 + 46.30  2762.94  2715.04
VIX        20.35 -  1.23    22.21    20.24
VIXN       43.20 -  1.75    45.74    42.75
Put/Call Ratio      0.62

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===========
Market Wrap
===========

Inchworm or Anaconda?

Wow!  In our 01:00 Update we thought there might be some 
"anchoring" in the tail of the technology inchworm as both the 
Biotech Index (BTK.X) and GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) were 
trading rather firm and perhaps setting up some bullishness in 
technology.  But a NASDAQ-100 Trust (AMEX:QQQ) 32.03 +2% surge 
into the close?  That wasn't an inchworm we were monitoring, it 
was more like an Anaconda!

It was the biotech's and the Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 431.24 
+7.4% that surged in the final two hours of trading that had the 
QQQ's surging higher into the close.  There have been reports of 
the Anaconda devouring small children in the flooded marshes, and 
there may be a few bears feeling the squeeze at the end of 
today's session.

The catalyst looks to have been Biogen (NASDAQ:BGEN) $40.32, 
which was halted for trading all day today, ahead of a U.S. 
advisory panel's review for its Amevive drug.  

I must confess, I didn't even know Biogen (BGEN) had been halted 
for trading, but perhaps our observations at 01:00 didn't make 
that necessarily important.  We at least observed the slight 
bullishness taking place in the group and perhaps got some 
exposure with a QQQ trade.

In the end, the advisory panel gave its backing for Biogen's 
(BGEN) Amevive, a drug to treat the hard-to-cure skin disease 
psoriasis.  Once the news favorable news was released, the 
Biotech Index (BTK.X) surged into the close.

Spectacular was the trading in the Biotech HOLDRS (AMEX:BBH) 
$102.25 +7.57%.  With Biogen (BGEN) halted, one way for 
institutions to get some exposure to the stock was through this 
security.  

Biotech HOLDRS since 12/31/01 - weighting




It's fully noted that while today's "good news" came from the 
halted Biogen (BGEN) $40.32, which didn't trade a share all day, 
bullishness abounded in the group.  I've tried to sort the 
Biotech HOLDRS (BBH) by "cost" to reflect how this basket of 
stocks would have been weighted at the end of last year.  I've 
grouped together (**) AMGN and IMNX as these two companies are 
scheduled to merge.  Recently, ABI and CHIR were split apart from 
the original Applera Corporation to reflect their different 
business units and biotechnology expertise.  In the far column to 
the right, I've added a QQQ to show which stocks are actually 
part of the NASDAQ-100 Trust (AMEX:QQQ).  We performed a similar 
exercise in the GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) not too long ago.

As you can see from the "P/L %" column, it's been a relatively 
rough 2002 for the biotechs.  Only Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) 
38.00 +7.64% is showing gains since the end of last year.

The "Total" row for "value" and "P/L%" is going to be invalid as 
my q-charts portfolio shows a $0.00 value and -100% loss for BGEN 
because the stock didn't trade today.

What most likely happened with the Biotech HOLDRS was that 
institutions along with investors that wanted or needed exposure 
bullish exposure to Biogen (NASDAQ:BGEN) and the good news, most 
likely turned to the BBH as a security to get some exposure.  The 
impact was noticeable as the BBH traded 3.7 million shares, more 
than 3-times its normal daily volume.

When I say "needed exposure" to Biogen (BGEN) I'm talking in 
regards to those traders/investors that were most likely short 
the stock prior to today's announcement.  

Biogen Chart - $1 box




Shares of Biogen (BGEN) recently achieved their bearish vertical 
count of $40 from the point and figure chart.  We're never 
certain, but the bearish action in the stock may well have been 
the MARKET'S way of removing risk from the stock and discounting 
a potential negative outcome from today's Amevive drug review.  

The MARKET never got a chance to respond to today's outcome as 
trading in BGEN was halted all session.  Tomorrow is when things 
get interesting.  Especially for subscribers that may have bought 
some QQQ's from today's 01:00 update.

Here's why.  Let's face it.  Today's bullishness in the QQQ, 
broader tech indexes and even in some of the major market 
averages was mostly due to the biotechs and any exposure to the 
group.  We can find some confirmation from that by the number of 
Biotech HOLDRS that are part of the QQQ (12 to be exact).  There 
are actually 18 stocks in the QQQ that can be classified as 
"biotech."  The 6 not listed in the BBH are (ABGX, BMET, CEPH, 
IMCL, IVGN, PDLI).  

Now, just as the biotechs were perhaps one of our "key" sectors 
that turned us onto the QQQ as a bullish play, then we will want 
to look at the BBH for some levels to look for resistance.

Right now, you and I are trading a little blind as we have no 
clue how Biogen (BGEN) is going to open for trading, or what 
impact it may have on things, but the MARKET did tip its hat a 
bit from the bullishness in the biotech index so this is an area 
of concentration right now.

Biotech HOLDRS Chart - Daily Interval




Near-term, the BBH looks to have upside to the $108 level.  It's 
interesting to say the least at how this basket of stocks has 
traded in relation to conventional retracement.  We get a decent 
"tie-in" with the 50-day moving average at the $108 level too.

However, I think there's a good possibility that the BBH could 
achieve the $114-$115 level in the not-to-distant future.  The 
upward trend on the chart goes back to the 03/22/01 and the low 
found there at $92.51 (just undercut recently at $90).  I will 
also note that according to Dorsey/Wright and Associates, this 
group of stocks is "bull alert" at 28%.  In essence, this group 
is still quantitatively "oversold" with only 28% of the stocks in 
the biotech "universe" showing a point and figure buy signal on 
its chart!

While $114 may seem unreasonable, I will note that in March of 
last year, when the BBH found its then bottom of $92.51, two 
months later the BBH was trading as high as $142.

I think there are most likely some shorts in these stocks that 
aren't going to be sleeping too well tonight.

Tomorrow will be a very "emotionally" filled day in the biotechs.  
Anything can happen and it's not a bad bet that it's most likely 
going to be to the upside.

Away from the biotechs

While the bulk of my focus today was what was taking place in the 
semiconductors, biotechs and software sectors, I was also 
monitoring the good old Dow Transports (TRAN) 2,762.50 +1.7% and 
the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) 592.41 +1.04%.  Both of 
these economically sensitive groups hung tough during the earlier 
market declines and both are approaching key technical levels 
that could further bolster a market rally.

The "key" level to watch for the CYC.X is a break above $600, 
which would be new 52-week highs.  They're just 8 points away and 
all heck can still break loose to the upside here.

The Dow Transports (TRAN) key level in my mind is the 2,810 
level.  Here we see the rounding lower 50-day moving average and 
extension of old upward trend from the September lows.  If this 
group gets back on that upward trend, then another piece of the 
strong economic puzzle falls back into place.  A break above 
2,810 could then set the stage for a retest of the March highs 
near 3,050.  Folks, that about an 8.5% potential move.  First 
things first and bulls need a break above 2,810.

Also economically sensitive are the homebuilders.  The Dow Jones 
Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) 376.28 +2.07% also traded strong 
today as the economic data from this morning kept this group 
above its starting to round flat 50-day moving average of 364.  I 
don't really see a "key" level of resistance here, but the longer 
the group stays above its 50-day moving average, the more 
concerned any bears in the group will become.

It was a wild day in the Treasury market and action there was 
somewhat similar to what we saw in stocks.  The morning started 
out with some brief selling in Treasuries, but then buyers showed 
up on concerns about the Middle East.  But as the session 
progressed, YIELDS whipped around (selling in Treasuries) and 
before you knew it, YIELDS were at their session highs.  Selling 
peaked right about the time that "rumor" started circulating that 
Biogen (BGEN) was going to get a favorable decision on its 
Amevivie drug.

Today's action in the Treasury market really looks suspicious.  
There's really little reason that such an economically or 
geopolitical type instrument should have traded the way it did 
today.  This has me further believing that there was a heck of a 
lot of buying in the biotechs today, and perhaps hedge fund 
activity was the highest.

This is the "perfect" type of trading action that a hedge fund 
short a bunch of biotechs would do.  If they've been shorting 
biotechs down the scale and all of a sudden you get some 
potentially favorable news in a large biotech stock, I could 
easily see some hedges coming off in short positions, and some 
rotation out of Treasuries (where the money from short sales had 
been parked).

More economic data!

Tomorrow morning at 08:30 AM EST, we'll get a look at Q1 
preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  Economists are looking 
for a healthy rate of 5.8%.

Then at 10:00 AM, April New Home Sales are scheduled for release.  
Analysts are looking for 883,000.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


=========================
Play-of-the-Day           (BULLISH play)
=========================

Crane Corporation - CR - cls: 28.55 chg: +0.34 stop: 26.94

Company Description:
Crane Company is a diversified industrial conglomerate that 
manufactures products for several market sectors: aerospace, 
engineered materials, fluid handling controls and merchandising 
systems. (source: company press release)



- ORIGINAL WRITE UP: May 17th, 2002 -

Why We Like It: 
Cranes company description, above, creates more questions than it 
answers about the firm's actual business.  But to us, Crane can 
be viewed as this: a huge manufacturing, cyclical company 
producing capital goods for the corporate sector.  Meaning?  CR 
is the kind of company likely to see good price appreciation in 
its stock as the economy improves and as Dow-type stocks attract 
investor money flow.  And this is precisely the environment we 
see today: slowly improving conditions for both the economy and 
the major market averages.  Since April 10th, CR has been in a 
meandering sideways consolidation between roughly $26.00 and 
$28.00.  This has been healthy; rests always are.  Within the 
last week, however, the stock used its rising 50-dma as a 
springboard for what appears to be the beginning of a new 
(potentially) multi-week advance. The last time CR broke out of 
such a consolidation, in February of this year, the stock 
advanced 30% before resting.  We think a similar move is possible 
in coming weeks. Technically, CR's weekly RSI has just recently 
begun rising; the Stochastic Oscillator is on the verge of giving 
a buy-signal cross over; and the MACD is in a solid, positive up-
trend.  The daily technicals don't look bad either.  The MACD 
just produced a bullish crossover on Friday after basing near the 
zero line.  We did note that volume was lighter than we would 
have preferred for the positive move over the $28 level on Friday 
but it looks like an entry point for bulls.  There is potential 
resistance at $28.50 and again near $29.00 but we expect these to 
be mere speed bumps on the way up.  A much more significant level 
of resistance to watch for is the $30 mark.  Just for kicks, 
print a chart and draw a trendline from the December high and 
extend it through the April highs.  You'll see it connect near 
the $30 area.  Short-term traders may want to consider taking 
profits here.  A study of the weekly chart will show long-term 
overhead resistance can be found at the $32.00 to $32.50 area.  
Premier is going to aim just below this level and our profit 
target will be $31.00 to $31.50.  Fortunately, the PnF chart also 
shows a bullish breakout above bearish resistance.  We're going 
to start the play with a stop at $26.94.

- Most Recent Update: May 23rd, 2002 -

No news is good news and Crane bulls seem to find comfort in the 
company's quiet behavior.  CR essentially followed Thursday's 
oscillations in the Dow, declining early in the trading day with 
the big cap average, then rebounding as the Dow clawed its way 
back into positive territory. The stock closed just a penny below 
its high for the day on rising volume. With today's intraday 
reversal, Crane has broken out of a short one-week consolidation 
and remains nicely above its rising 50-dma.  New long positions 
in Crane can be initiated at current levels as we expect shares 
to breakout above current resistance at $29.00.

- Play-of-the-Day Comments: May 23rd, 2002 -

The resistance level at $29 is looking awfully fragile.  CR has 
broken out of a triangular consolidation pattern on rising 
volume.  Shares finished strong today, closing just under the 
highs for the day.  Traders can evaluate entries at current 
levels, although more cautious types should wait for the stock to 
trade above $29.

Picked on May 17th at $28.22 
Gain since picked:     +0.33
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed)
 




================
Market Sentiment
================

Rally of Substance?
By Eric Utley

Do the last two late day ramps portend a summer rally?  Or were
they just more of the same?  That is, short covering.  Well, by
my estimation, the late day rallies were nothing more than short
covering.  I surmise that much by the blatant display of emotion
in the upside movement; the fear to the upside on the part of
the shorts.

That kind of buying isn't the type that bottoms are built on,
but what's new?  We've been noting that sort of thing for quite
a while now.  Meanwhile, my favorite gauge into the market's
sentiment, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX.X), imploded,
again, in the last two days.  Once again, without fear of the
downside on the part of longs, there's no wall of worry -- a
necessary aspect of a bull market -- to climb higher.  The lack
of stick in the VIX tells me that the crowd still believes, err,
hopes in the rally. 

Meanwhile, the ARMS Index numbers are moving off of extreme
levels thanks in part to the general strength in stocks in the
last two days.  The longer term measures are now closer to an
extreme overbought level than the shorter measures.

Market internals were not as pretty as the picture in the
averages.  Decliners outpaced advancers on both the NYSE and
the NASDAQ, but it was only by a fractional amount on the
former.  The new high/new low line, however, improved during
the day by a wide margin especially on the NYSE.  Volume was
less than active.

As for bullish percent, well the Nasdaq-100 reading has been all
over the map recently because of the increased volatility.  It's
back in bull correction mode, below the 50 percent level, which
is not as bullish as bull confirmed.  But hey, did you know the
week following Memorial Day is most bullish based on history?

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     : 10216

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10194
 50-dma: 10215
200-dma:  9901

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1097

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1088
 50-dma: 1110
200-dma: 1119

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1287

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1279
 50-dma: 1346
200-dma: 1454


Biotech ($BTK)

The BTK exploded by more than 7 percent Thursday ahead of the
ruling on Biogen's (NASDAQ:BGEN) psoriasis drug.  Biogen got
approval and the BTK earned the day's best performing sector
spot.  The upside movement in individual equities was even
more impressive.

The day's best performing individual components included
Human Genome Sciences (NASDAQ:HGSI), MedImmune (NASDAQ:MEDI),
Sepracor (NASDAQ:SEPR), Protein Design Labs (NASDAQ:PDLI),
and Abgenix (NASDAQ:ABGX).

52-week High: 676
52-week Low : 375
Current     : 431

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 409
 50-dma: 458
200-dma: 509


Fiber Optic ($FOP)

A completely different news event was responsible for the day's
worst performing sector: Ciena's (NASDAQ:CIEN) talk.  A
component of the FOP, Ciena weighed on the group to the tune of
0.65 percent in the index.  The FOP was the worst performing
sector for the day.

Leading individual downside movers included Ciena, Corning
(NYSE:GLW), Finisar (NASDAQ:FNSR), MRV Communications
(NASDAQ:MRVC), Alcatel (NYSE:ALA), and Vitesse (NASDAQ:VTSS).

52-week High: 139
52-week Low :  65 
Current     :  69

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 72
 50-dma: 81
200-dma: N/A

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

Hey, guess what?  The VIX is trading with a 20 handle.  Shocking!

The VXN is trading near the lower end of its ascending channel.
I would view a breakdown as confirmation of the recent strength
in stocks.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 20.34 -1.25
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 43.28 -1.42

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.90        482,992       434,205
Equity Only    0.71        403,203       288,899
OEX            1.14         17,797        20,344
QQQ            0.77         46,002        35,202

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          63      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    41      - 1     Bull Correction
DOW           67      + 0     Bear Correction
S&P 500       64      + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       66      + 0     Bear Correction

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  0.93
10-Day Arms Index  1.08
21-Day Arms Index  1.26
55-Day Arms Index  1.25

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      2006           2025
NASDAQ    1155           1417

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE     107             23
NASDAQ    82             63

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,183
NASDAQ   1,759

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 05/14/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

S&P commercials reverted to their bearish commitments by reducing
their longs and adding to shorts.  Small traders grew more bullish
by adding a large amount of longs; small traders are 3,000
contracts away from their most bullish reading of the year.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
04/30/02      340,936   421,673   (80,737)  (10.6%)
05/07/02      348,019   422,801   (74,782)   (9.7%)
05/14/02      343,941   424,893   (80,952)  (12.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/30/02      153,158     56,372   96,786     46.2%
05/07/02      154,664     59,583   95,081     44.4%
05/14/02      163,035     58,587  104,448     49.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials shifted to a decidedly bullish position last
week by adding longs and dropping shorts.  Commercials are net
long more than 5,000 contracts.  Small traders meanwhile went in
the opposite direction by establishing a position that was net
short more than 5,000 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
04/30/02       34,591     35,933    (1,342)   (9.7%)
05/07/02       38,338     39,152      (814)   (1.1%)
05/14/02       40,858     35,761      5,097   (5.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   7,774  - 12/21/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
04/30/02       12,271    12,703     (432)      1.7%
05/07/02       13,229    13,161        68      0.3%
05/14/02       11,920    17,479    (5,559)     8.2% 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow commercials added a few more longs than shorts for an
increase in the group's net bullish position.  Small traders
went in the opposite direction by reducing their longs and
adding to their shorts.  

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/30/02       17,275    13,341    3,934     12.8%
05/07/02       19,967    14,045    5,922     17.4%
05/14/02       21,080    14,725    6,355     14.4% 

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
04/30/02        5,813     8,869    (3,056)   (20.8%)
05/07/02        5,124     9,831    (4,707)   (31.5%)
05/14/02        4,930    10,899    (5,969)   (25.2%) 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------



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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 05-23-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/e23b_2.asp
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In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  SNE
  Bearish Play Updates:  BRCD, CLS, TBH

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bullish Play:      RIG
  Bullish Play Updates:  CR, DCN, DCX, GR, HRB, MHK, RKY
  Bearish Play Updates:  BA, DHR, TSG

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  INVN, LU, PVN

Split Trader
                         
                         KSWS:  2-for-1 split announcement
                         MHO:   2-for-1 split announcement
                         

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Sony - SNE - close: 59.70 change: +0.14 stop: 58.31 *new* 

We continue to like the short-term and longer-term technical 
indicators on SNE. The stock has enjoyed a very productive two-
week period, rising nearly $7 in price.  It is not unrealistic to 
expect the stock will soon consolidate, and the $60 region could 
be where its next short term pause will occur.  Please remember 
that we have now set an official profit-target of $62.49 on this 
trade.  If you are a very aggressive trader, you may want to wait 
for a potential move to the $65 level.  We have raised our sell 
stop to 58.31 in order to protect at 10% gain in this position.

Picked on April 4th at $53.01
Gain since picked:      +6.69
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Brocade - BRCD - close: 20.30 change: +0.16 stop: 21.26

Our short position in BRCD was initiated on Wednesday when the 
stock traded down to the trigger price of $19.35.  The stock was 
able to rebound with the Nasdaq late on Thursday afternoon.  
We'll be watching BRCD's $21 region in coming days, an area of 
limited resistance for the stock.  BRCD continues to trade well 
below its declining 50-dma, which currently sits at $24.17 (and 
well above our stop).

Picked on May 22nd at $19.35 
Gain since picked:     -0.95
Earnings Date       04/15/02 (confirmed)




---

Celestica - CLS - close: 31.30 change: +0.10 stop: 33.21

UBS Warburg initiated coverage of Celestica today with a "hold" 
rating. The stock responded with a long yawn to the lukewarm 
rating. CLS continues to trade just below its declining 50-dma, 
and this remains positive for our short position. As CLS has 
drifted downward over the last 5 trading sessions, volume has 
trended downward, suggesting to us that sharp selling pressure 
has not yet started to affect the stock.  We would not initiate 
new short positions until CLS trades back down below our entry
point of $30.94.

Picked on May 21st at $30.94
Gain since picked:     -0.36
Earnings Date       04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Telecom Brasil - TBH - close: 28.05 change: +0.35 stop: 30.01

Our new short position in TBH struggled today.  The telecom 
sector rebounded from yesterday's downgrading of Qwest's debt to 
junk status.  The rebound may have been associated with an  
announcement by Qwest executives who said that the company was 
disappointed in the downgrade by Standard and Poor's, feeling 
that S&P had no basis for the action.  The company also reassured 
Qwest bondholders that they would get paid. The Combined Telecom 
Index (IXTCX) rebounded along with Qwest; the index added about 
1/2%.  TBH continues to trade well below its declining 50-dma, 
and the stock has fairly healthy resistance between $29.00 and 
$29.65. We expect this resistance to stall any advance on Friday.  
Interested traders in TBH might be curious to check out the other 
overseas telecom stocks.  They aren't doing that well.  Check out 
DT, FTE, and NOK.

Picked on May 22nd at $27.70 
Gain since picked:     -0.35
Earnings Date            N/A
 





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT New Plays
===============

  ----------------
  New Bullish Play
  ----------------

Transocean Inc. - RIG - cls: 39.26 chg: +0.66 stop: 36.84

Company Description:
Transocean is the world's largest offshore oil and gas drilling 
contractor.  Its major business is to provide contract drilling 
rigs, equipment and workers to the oil and gas industry.  The 
company owns a large fleet of drillships, jack-up rigs, drilling 
barges, and platform-drilling rigs.

Why We Like It:
The Oil Services Index (OSX) has been in a short-term but 
volatile consolidation since May 3rd.  As part of its 
consolidation the index has successfully bounced off its rising 
50-dma for the past week; we think this index is now ready to 
begin its next meaningful advance.  As a major member of this 
industrial sector, we have selected to play RIG on the long side. 
Fundamentally, we think the continuing improvement in the US 
economy, exemplified by Thursday's report that durable goods have 
risen for five consecutive months, will only help the stock price 
of companies like RIG whose earnings expand (and contract) with 
the economy.  Recent analyst recommendations on this stock have 
been consistently very positive, including Wachovia's April 30th 
"strong buy" and Salomon's May 1st "outperform" statements. 

We had a difficult time deciding whether we should play RIG, or a 
number of other related stocks like AHC, OXY, ARA, and HAL.  In 
the end, though, we elected to go long that stock possessing the 
most bullish, yet least over-extended technical chart pattern on 
both our daily AND weekly charts.  The technical situation for 
RIG is impressive, too: volume has been advancing for the last 
several days as it has successfully broken out of a triangular 
consolidation, while the RSI, MACD, Stochastics and Bollinger 
Bands (5-ma, 1.7 sd) are all rising on both daily and weekly 
charts. RIG was up 1.7% today, and we would not be surprised to 
see the stock dip over the next day or two before it begins 
moving higher.  Our official buy point will be at current levels, 
though patient traders may wish to wait and see if the stock 
pulls back to the $38.50 region.  Our profit target is $44.00, 
which we think can be reached within the next four weeks.  Our 
sell stop on this trade has been set at $36.84, which is both 
below Wednesday's low, and a near-term region of support.

Picked on May xth at   $39.26
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/30/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Crane Corporation - CR - cls: 28.55 chg: +0.34 stop: 26.94

No news is good news and Crane bulls seem to find comfort in the 
company's quiet behavior.  CR essentially followed Thursday's 
oscillations in the Dow, declining early in the trading day with 
the big cap average, then rebounding as the Dow clawed its way 
back into positive territory. The stock closed just a penny below 
its high for the day on rising volume. With today's intraday 
reversal, Crane has broken out of a short one-week consolidation 
and remains nicely above its rising 50-dma.  New long positions 
in Crane can be initiated at current levels as we expect shares 
to breakout above current resistance at $29.00.

Picked on May 17th at $28.22 
Gain since picked:     +0.33
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed)
 



---

DaimlerChrysler - DCX - close: 49.87 change: -0.73 stop: 44.66

DCX gapped higher on Wednesday morning and traded to a 52-week 
high of $50.77.  Investors may have been cheering the company's 
new plan to cut costs in logistics, marketing, IT, and salary 
payments.  Shares appeared to be poised for a test of the 2001 
high of $52.72.  However, the ADR opened under the $50 level this 
morning following a lackluster session on the German DAX.  
Today's 1.4% decline was backed by strong volume, which is 
normally considered bearish.  We actually think this is a bullish 
indicator, due to the fact that shares finished at the high of 
the day and closed above the opening price.  It's also 
encouraging to see DCX outperform GM, which has been trending 
lower for over a week.  If the broader market closes out the week 
on a strong note, we'd expect DCX to move back above the $50 
level.  Aggressive traders can consider bullish positions if 
shares move above $50.00 or $50.77.

Picked on May 6th at $46.50 
Gain since picked:    +3.37
Earnings Date      02/20/02 (confirmed)



 
---  

Dana Corp. - DCN - close: 22.26 change: -0.06 stop: 20.44

Shareholders of DCN enjoyed a strong rally last week, so it isn't 
surprising to see some consolidation of those gains.  The stock 
has been pulling back on declining volume while remaining above 
near-term support at $21.75.  The location of this support may 
not be a coincidence; our retracement on the hourly chart (from 
the May 10th low to May 17th high) shows that shares have pulled 
back to the 38.2% level--a typical retracement after a sharp gap-
laden advance.  The way DCN has maintained this level is very 
bullish, and we're anticipating a move higher in the near future.  
New entries can be considered on a move above today's high of 
$22.55, although conservative traders may want to place their 
stops just under the relative low of $21.72.

Picked on May 17th at $22.26 
Change since picked:   +0.00
Earnings Date       04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Goodrich Corp - GR - close: 33.58 change: unch stop: 30.97 

GR just can't seem to release from the bottom of its ascending 
channel.  Of course, "ascending" is the operative word here.  As 
long as it keeps uptrending, the stock has a shot at breaking 
over the multi-month high of $34.45.  A move over this level 
would clear the way for a test of the channel's midline at $36.  
The catalyst for a breakout could be provided by a rally in the 
DFX.X defense index, which successfully tested support today.  
Our outlook for the immediate future is continued consolidation 
between $33-$34, although entries can be evaluated on a pullback 
to the 50-dma at $32.22.

Picked on May 3rd at $31.97
Gain since picked:    +1.30
Earnings Date      04/24/02 (confirmed)


 

---

H&R Block - HRB - cls: 46.25 chg: +0.25 stop: 44.49

Technically, HRB is still trying to break out of its reverse head 
and shoulders pattern that goes back to mid-March. It still needs 
to move above $47.40 to "activate" this positive technical 
formation. We were encouraged by today's action, which had HRB 
closing very near its intraday high.  In our May 21 update on HRB 
we noted that a rebound off the $45.00 - $45.50 area might be an 
attractive entry point for new long positions, and the stock gave 
us a chance such an entry on Wednesday, when it traded down to a 
low of 44.94. 

Picked on May 17th at $46.88 
Gain since picked:     -0.63
Earnings Date       06/12/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Mohawk Industries - MHK - cls: 68.94 chg: -0.71 stop: 64.87

The homebuilding sector turned in a strong performance today.  
RYL, CTX, TOL, and KBH all finished with respectable gains, while 
the DJUSHB (Dow Jones Home Building Index) bounced near its 50-
dma and tacked on 2%.  MHK, however, bucked the trend and 
declined by 1%.  The combination of 1) psychological resistance 
at $70 and 2) the midline of MHK's ascending channel are proving 
to be a formidable challenge for the bulls.  A break above 
resistance could have the bears running scared - especially if 
the housing sector remains strong.  With this in mind, traders 
can use the all-time high of $70.60 as a possible action point to 
go long unless you prefer to play the bounces at $68.00.

Picked on May 3rd at $66.30
Gain since picked:    +2.64
Earnings Date      04/15/02 (confirmed) 




---

Adolph Coors - RKY - close: 68.55 change: +0.05 stop: 63.89

Although shares of RKY closed with a gain of just 5 cents, we 
think the technical picture has improved.  The stock closed over 
$68 for the second day in a row (after trading to an intraday low 
of $68.00) and extended its weeklong trend of tracing higher 
highs.  This bodes well for a test of the near-term high at 
$69.25.  However, a glance at the oscillators reveals that RKY 
may face further consolidation before it makes a run at the 52-
week high of $69.25.  While the MACD has gone flat, the daily 
stochastics (5,3,3 setting) are beginning to drop from the upper 
band.  This could portend a retest of Monday's low ($67.29) or 
even the rising 50-dma at $66.25.  Traders could use a bounce 
from the 50-dma as a new entry point.

Picked on May 2nd at $68.36
Gain since picked:    +0.19
Earnings Date      04/25/02 (confirmed) 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Boeing Company - BA - close: 44.15 change: -0.26 stop: 45.80

We initiated a short position on Boeing at yesterday's open. The 
stock has struggled since then, dropping noticeably early in each 
trading session then clawing its way back to recoup some of its 
losses by each close. Boeing may have picked up buyers late today 
as investors began to concentrate on the good Durable Goods 
report from this morning, which showed a nice gain of 1.1%, the 
fifth monthly gain in a row.  Traders might want to keep an eye 
on the news for BA.  There has been a bunch recently.  We noticed 
that BA expects to build 8 fewer wide-body jets for its 2003 
production schedule as the company grows more concerned about 
traffic for the jumbo jet products.  BA's CEO was in the news on 
Wednesday with dire news for the Airlines business.  He does not 
expect air travel to pick up anytime soon.  He was quoted as 
saying it will take a "relatively long time" for air travel to 
get back to pre Sept. 11th levels.  J.P. Morgan also chimed in on 
their concerns for BA's revenues related to the wide-body plane 
cut back.  More bad news for BA and good news for bears was word 
that BA might take additional writedowns for its satellite unit.  
The satellite business has been rough and their division reported 
a loss in their latest quarter that was characterized by launch 
delays and product repairs.  In contrast to these concerns, bulls 
might attempt to focus on BA's positive news.  This afternoon a 
report came out that BA could sell hundreds of unmanned combat 
drones to the U.S. as technology progresses to use drones for a 
variety of tasks. We will be looking for BA to stall near $45 
should it to try to rebound on Friday.

Picked on May 21st at $44.35
Gain since picked:     +0.20
Earnings Date       07/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Danaher Corp. - DHR - close: 70.90 change: +1.39 stop: 73.01

DHR traded higher today in lock step with the Dow.  The stock 
closed below its flat 50-dma, which now sits at $71.70.  We want 
to see the stock remain under this average, since a close above 
it will be negative for our short position.  New short positions 
in DHR might be best initiated on a move back below $69.03, the 
point at which this trade was initiated.

Picked on May 13th at $69.03
Gain since picked:     -1.87
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed) 




--- 

Sabre Holdings Corp - TSG - cls: 38.04 chg: +0.27 stop: 40.01

Travel-related Internet stocks were reasonably strong today, with 
Expedia (EXPE) gaining 4% and ROOM (Hotels.com) adding 1.5%.  In 
this environment, a rising tide seemed to lift all boats and TSG 
was able to move higher in the wake of the good performance 
enjoyed by its competitors. Although TSG advanced about 0.75% 
today, it did so on lack-luster volume and this helps support our 
bearish position on this stock.  TSG looks like it may try to 
rebound a bit further in the next couple of trading sessions, but 
we will expect resistance in the $39.00 area to stop any advance.

Picked on May 13th at $39.74
Gain since picked:     +1.70
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

InVision Technologies - INVN - cls: 24.18 chg: -0.83 stop: *text*

INVN was hit for a 3.3% loss today after the FAA approved a 
competitor's explosive detection system.  Shares gapped lower 
this morning and never approached our entry trigger at $25.21.  
S.G. Cowen defended INVN, based on its belief that the company 
will soon receive FAA certification of a similar system.  From a 
technical perspective, some consolidation of the past two days of 
gains could be expected.  The pullback on lighter volume and 
close over the 200-dma suggests that the bulls may make another 
run at the $25 level.  If this play is triggered, our stop will 
be located at $23.08.

Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date      04/23/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Lucent Technologies - LU - close: 4.80 change: -0.01 stop: *text*

LU continues to trade in a narrow range between the 50-dma at
$4.53 and resistance at $5.00.  In the absence of any 
significant news over the past two sessions, the stock has not 
tested either of those extremes.  LU did drop today after Q had 
its debt-rating cut to "junk" by S&P, but recovered those losses 
by the closing bell.  As long as LU can stay above the 50-dma, 
we'll be content to keep this potential play open.  Our trigger 
to go long remains set at $5.05. 
 
Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:  +0.00
Earnings Date      04/22/02 (confirmed) 




---

Providian Financial - PVN - cls: 7.72 chg: -0.16 stop: 6.99

Our long play in PVN was activated on Wednesday after shares 
moved above the near-term high of $7.65.  The stock rose steadily 
throughout the session before closing at a relative high.  
Today's action was more subdued, as a failed test of the $8.00 
level gave way to a 2% loss. After the market closed, Fitch 
Ratings downgraded PVN's senior debt from a B+ to a B.  At this 
point in the evening we are not sure the downgrade will 
materially affect the shares on Friday, or if Fitch's action had 
already been integrated into PVN's current share price.  Today's 
failure at the $8.00 level suggests that new entries be deferred 
until PVN moves over resistance at $8.00.  However, in light of 
our profit-target, such a strategy is best left to those who are 
anticipating a break over a second resistance level at $8.50.  
We'll be bailing out with a 10% gain if shares trade at or above 
$8.45.

Picked on May 22nd at $7.66
Gain since picked:    +0.06
Earnings Date      05/06/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

K-Swiss declares 2-for-1 split, boosts dividend

After the market closed today, K-Swiss Inc. (NASDAQ: KSWS) 
announced that its Board of Directors had declared a 2-for-1 stock 
split.

The split will be payable on June 21, 2002 to shareholders of 
record on June 7, 2002.  Post-split trading will commence on June 
24, 2002.  The Board also approved an increase of the quarterly 
cash dividend, from 3 cents/share to 4 cents/share.  The dividend 
will be payable on July 15, 2002 to shareholders of record on June 
28, 2002.

KSWS last split in 1999, and has gained 36% in 2002.  Shares are
currently trading near all-time highs. 

The stock closed at $45.49 on Thursday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=KSWS


About the company
K-Swiss Inc. designs, develops and markets an array of athletic footwear 
for high performance sports use, fitness activities and casual wear 
under the K-Swiss brand. The Company also designs and manufactures 
footwear under the Royal Elastics and National Geographic brands. 
(source: company press release)

---

Schottenstein Homes constructs 2-for-1 stock split

Prior to the opening bell this morning, M/I Schottenstein Homes, 
Inc. (NYSE: MHO) announced a 2-for-1 stock split.

The split will be distributed on June 19, 2002 to shareholders of 
record on June 5, 2002.   

This marks the first split for MHO since it began trading in 1993. 
 The stock has more than doubled from its September lows, 
reflecting sector-wide bullishness in the homebuilding group.  
Shares have risen 28% YTD.

MHO closed at $63.88 on Thursday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=MHO


About the company
M/I Schottenstein Homes, Inc. is one of the nation's leading 
builders of single-family homes, having sold over 50,000 homes. 
The Company's homes are marketed and sold under the trade names 
Horizon, M/I Homes and Showcase Homes., physician and dental 
offices, laboratories and clinics.
(source: company press release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
-------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

E       Eni Spa ADS                77.73     +0.61
STI     Suntrust Banks Inc         69.97     +1.22
OXY     Occidental Petroleum       30.67     +0.53
HAL     Halliburton Co             19.40     +1.40
MLI     Mueller Industries Inc     34.91     +0.59
OII     Oceaneering Intl           31.38     +1.16

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UTHR    United Therapeutics Corp   14.71     +1.06
CPTS    Conceptus Inc              18.71     +2.81

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MDT     Medtronic Inc              47.45     +1.41
RY      Royal Bank of Canada       37.14     +1.25
AZO     Autozone Inc               81.30     +4.63
CCR     Countrywide Credit         50.04     +1.17
WSM     Williams Sonoma Inc        32.12     +3.09
PDCO    Patterson Dental           47.35     +1.85
OSI     Outback Steakhouse Inc     39.08     +2.18

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

TM      Toyota Motor Corp ADS      55.15     -1.01
HD      Home Depot                 42.90     -1.35
GSK     GlaxoSmithKline            46.39     -1.56
DGX     Quest Diagnostic           84.96     -1.07
TER     Teradyne Inc               28.00     -1.06
NVDA    NVIDIA Corp                35.73     -2.32

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BF.B    Brown-Forman Corp. Class B 77.00     -1.66
RCII    Rent-A-Center Inc          58.85     -2.68
GTK     GTech Holdings             59.18     -0.82



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