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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 05/28/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 05-28-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Sell In May And Go Away
Market Sentiment: Uncertainty Rules
Play-of-the-Day:  This Stock Is Trash


-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------        
      05-28-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9981.58 -122.68 10118.51  9961.86 0.96 bln   1392/1775
NASDAQ   1651.86 -  9.32  1671.35  1632.75 1.13 bln   1586/1905
S&P 100   534.32 -  5.60   540.89   532.05   Totals   2978/3680
S&P 500  1074.55 -  9.27  1085.98  1080.31
RUS 2000  492.41 -  1.23   495.22   487.43
DJ TRANS 2728.13 - 15.50  2749.01  2700.49
VIX        22.43 +  1.27    23.37    21.68
VXN        45.11 +  2.25    46.48    44.45
TRIN        1.72
PUT/CALL    1.08

-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Sell in May and go away

There's an old market adage that say's "sell in May and go away" 
to describe the market's seasonal doldrums before the summer 
vacationing season, when Wall Street tycoons close up shop and 
head to the beach house for some rest and relaxation.

Volume was once again very light, just as it was late last week.  
Today's NYSE volume was light with just over 953 million shares 
traded, while the NASDAQ volume was also anemic at 1.3 million 
shares.  While volume has never had an economist or market 
analyst projecting up or down price action, it certainly looks 
like many traders and investors have traded in the leather 
captain's chair for the more simple comforts of weaved nylon 
somewhere on a sandy beach.

A number of economic reports were released today.  Consumer 
confidence rose to 109.8 in May, which was in line with the 
consensus of 109.6.  Existing home sales rose a strong 7% to a 
5.79 million unit rate, which was much stronger that the 5.35 
million consensus.

Despite the "good news" in the economic numbers, the broader 
market averages traded lower as the S&P 500 fell 9 points to 
1,074 and the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) fell 0.56%, trading down 9 
points to 1,652.  

Some analysts pointed to the expectations component of the 
confidence report, a forward looking part of confidence, which 
was not as bullish that could point to consumers slowing their 
spending down the road.  The May expectations component slipped 
to 109.4 versus April's 109.6, while the current conditions index 
rose to 110.3 compares to 106.8 registered in April.

Dow's biggest loser was Home Depot

Helping the Dow Industrials achieve a 122 point decline was 
shares of building supply retailer Home Depot (NYSE:HD) $41.54 
-4.32% after UBS Warburg downgraded the stock to "hold" from 
"buy" on fears that HD is changing too much too fast.  Although 
HD says sales trends reflect weather and the economy, UBS thinks 
aggressive change plus a new operating team has left some sales 
on the table.  UBS Warburg noted that Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) $47.99 
-0.22% is now more profitable that HD, which UBS believes is a 
testament to their focus, but also suggests HD could do more to 
protect market share.

Home Depot Chart - Daily Interval




We talked about Home Depot (HD) in the market wrap on 05/21/02 
and thought the stock might be vulnerable to the $40.66 level if 
the $44.56 level were violated to the downside.  It took a few 
days, but HD traded pretty much like we thought it might on a 
break of $44.56.  Bears that are holding this one short from the 
05/22/02 break should now be lowering their stops to just above 
today's high of $43.42.  That should give the trader ample 
opportunity for the stock to trade the $40.66 level again, or 
perhaps the bearish vertical count from the point and figure 
chart of $39.  

My "style" of trading is to close out gains a little earlier than 
bearish vertical counts.  The longer you're in a trade, the 
longer a trader has capital at risk.  At current levels, HD has 
declined about 6.7%, easily outpacing the recent 4-day decline in 
the S&P 500.

AT&T looks like sand castle that surf keeps eroding

While Wall Street tycoon may have already headed to a summer 
retreat on a sunny beach for the summer, shares of Dow component 
and telecom bellwether AT&T (NYSE:T) $12.41 -2.97% sunk to a new 
52-week low and is approaching its 12/21/00 low of $11.92.  

AT&T Chart - Daily Interval




Last year, shares of T almost doubled (100%) from their 12/21/00 
low of 11.98 then the stock traded as high as $21.50 (upper 
retracement) last summer.  Since then, a steady wave of selling 
has seen the stock's price slowly crumble, almost like a sand 
castle built to close to the ocean, where telecom sector 
bearishness has slowly deteriorated the stock's outward 
appearance.

While AT&T doesn't have nearly the impact on the Dow Industrials 
as it once had, the stocks decline to these levels has brought a 
realization to the MARKET that no stock is invincible.  Trader's 
speculate that AT&T may actually have to reverse split their 
shares after the company officially spins off its recently sold 
broadband business to Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSK) as that "asset" will 
no longer contribute to AT&T's stock value.

Last week, it was reported that Comcast (CMCSK) $29.05 -2.22% 
sold a 42-million share block of AT&T (T) stock to Salomon Smith 
Barney, in order to maintain its investment-grade debt rating.  
Comcast wouldn't disclose the price that the AT&T shares were 
sold, when the announcement was made last Tuesday evening, after 
T had closed at $13.16.

Key earnings to monitor tomorrow morning

While tonight's mid-quarter update from semiconductor-equipment 
maker Novellus Systems (NASDAQ:NVLS) $46.67 +1.06% was all the 
talk today, I think tomorrow morning's earnings and comments from 
home builder Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) $30.27 (unchanged) could 
have a major impact on the markets.

The home builders have been one of the closely monitored sectors 
as it relates to the health of the economy, and so far, this 
group of stocks and the new home sales numbers have remained 
strong.

Tomorrow, before the opening bell, analysts are looking for Toll 
Brothers (TOL) to report Q2 earnings of $0.62 a share versus 
year-ago earnings of $0.58 a share.  Any disappointment or 
"cautious" outlook from the homebuilder could set the sector into 
a tailspin as bearish traders have been looking for the "housing 
bubble" to pop for a couple of quarters.

On May 15th, it should be noted that Toll Brothers' Vice Chairman 
Bruce E. Toll sold 700,000 shares of stock just sessions before 
when the stock was trading new 52-week highs near $31.00.  His 
original 144 filing (insider sales filing with the SEC) was for 1 
million shares, but Mr. Toll informed the company that he does 
not currently intend to sell any additional shares and has 
amended his 144 filing accordingly.

I must say, I pay a lot more attention to insider buying than I 
do insider selling.  However, with the Enron "debacle" still on 
many trader's minds, selling 700,000 shares near $30 is not 
necessarily "walking around money" and any type of negative news 
out of tomorrow morning's conference call would undoubtedly raise 
some suspicions amongst traders and other market participants in 
the housing sector.

Toll Brothers Chart - Daily Interval




I've shown the weekly interval chart of Toll Brothers (TOL) to 
show subscribers how strong this and some other homebuilders have 
traded over the past couple of years.  I don't think it is unfair 
for any officer, director, or employee of the company to be 
taking some profits off the table.  However, considering some of 
the recent events at Enron, Adelphia (NASDAQ:ADLAE) $2.00 -27.7% 
and other company's where insiders have bailed out near tops, you 
can bet that market participants will be keeping a close eye on 
TOL after it reports earnings tomorrow morning.

In February, after the company's last earnings report, the market 
responded very bullish to TOL's earnings by gapping the stock 
higher on February 26th to a new 52-week high at $23.25.  There's 
some good news built into the stock at current levels, as well as 
others in the sector.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

Uncertainty Rules
By Eric Utley

A slew of seemingly positive data failed to inspire investors
Tuesday, who instead deferred to geopolitical risks and the
uncertainty over corporate profits.  Blue chips and economically
sensitive transport issues fared worse than tech shares, which
was a change from the recent trend.

The sector scorecard was littered with 1 and 2 percent drops in
groups such as the banks, cyclicals, and software shares.  The
lone bright spot in the technology group was the Biotechnology
Index (BTK.X), which gained more than 2 percent for the day on
the back of continued strength in Biogen (NASDAQ:BGEN).

The one sector that really stood out, again, was the Gold and
Silver Index (XAU.X), which ran up to another fresh 52 week
high.  As noted below, the XAU was the best performing index for
the day with its 3.27 percent gain.  June gold (GC02M) traded
as high as $325.8 per ounce Tuesday before pulling back on what
looked like profit taking.

The rate at which the rally in gold is increasing is worrisome,
for both gold investors and the broader market.  For one, the
near parabolic rally in the equities can't last indefinitely;
then again, they said the same thing about tech stocks in the
late 90's, the same ones who missed most of the rally up to
6000.  To digress, there's some excessive upside action in the
gold shares, many of which are trading at very rich premiums,
including the hedged companies who stand to miss out on much of
the rise in bullion through forward sales.  For the broader
market, the rise in gold portends either inflation or a flight
to hard assets, neither of which are particularly good for stocks
in general.  We'll continue to explore this relationship as the
story unfolds.

Meanwhile, it's the week following Memorial Day -- a historically
bullish week for stocks -- but no one seems to care.  Stocks
plunged early on and never really could muster a rally back up to
positive territory.  Rumors circulated early in the day that
President Bush had departed his NATO engagement earlier, which had
some speculating that there was trouble on the domestic front.
That particular rumor was squelched when Bush emerged with the
Pope.  The fact that we even touch upon such silliness reveals
just how jittery the market is.  Moreover, we saw that much in the
rise in the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) Tuesday.

The only thing we can do as traders is to define our risk
parameters and stick with what's working.  Be bullish on strong
stocks, and bearish on weak stocks when the risk management lines
up.  As for the broader market, it will remain levered to the
upcoming economic releases and earnings guidance.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     :  9982

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10211
 50-dma: 10207
200-dma:  9898

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1075

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1090
 50-dma: 1107
200-dma: 1117

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1245

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1286
 50-dma: 1337
200-dma: 1450


Gold & Silver ($XAU)

The XAU was once again the best performing sector for the day
with its 3.27 percent climb higher to yet another new multi
year high.  The metal traded above $325 per ounce.

Leading individual names to the upside included Meridian Gold
(NYSE:MDG), Anglogold (NYSE:AU), Harmony Gold (NASDAQ:HGMCY),
Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM), and Freeport McMoran (NYSE:FCX).

52-week High: 89
52-week Low : 49
Current     : 89

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 82
 50-dma: 74
200-dma: 62


Forest & Paper ($FPP)

The FPP was the worst performing sector for the day with its
1.76 percent drop.  Weak broader market conditions as well as
economic uncertainty were to blame.

Leaders to the downside included Georgia Pacific (NYSE:GP),
Louisiana Pacific (NYSE:LPX), Boise Cascade (NYSE:BCC), and
Abitibi (NYSE:ABY).

52-week High: 382
52-week Low : 270
Current     : 364

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 372
 50-dma: 364
200-dma: 337

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX spiked higher Tuesday to the tune of more than 5 percent.
I'm starting to see signs of increased fear, reversing the trend
that was in place through early last week.

The same goes for the VXN, which appears to have formed a very
short term base from which it may climb higher this week, in
essence confirming weakness in the Nasdaq-100 (NDX.X).

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 22.26 +1.10
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 45.07 +2.21

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          1.08        291,244       313,532
Equity Only    0.84        230,301       193,971
OEX            1.12         11,285        12,645
QQQ            2.41         15,215        36,785

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          62      - 1     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    38      - 2     Bull Correction
DOW           67      + 0     Bear Correction
S&P 500       62      - 1     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       64      - 2     Bear Correction

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.26
10-Day Arms Index  1.07
21-Day Arms Index  1.26
55-Day Arms Index  1.28

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1392           1795
NASDAQ    1583           1899

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      82             29
NASDAQ    80             63

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       953
NASDAQ   1,319

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 05/21/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

S&P commercials added more longs than shorts last week, resulting
in an decrease in the group's net bearish position.  Small traders
did just the opposite for a net increase in their bullish
positions.  Small traders are less than 2,000 contracts away from
their most bullish reading of the year.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
05/07/02      348,019   422,801   (74,782)   (9.7%)
05/14/02      343,941   424,893   (80,952)  (12.1%)
05/21/02      354,039   429,803   (75,764)   (9.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
05/07/02      154,664     59,583   95,081     44.4%
05/14/02      163,035     58,587  104,448     49.8%
05/21/02      164,964     58,950  106,014     47.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials grew slightly more bullish last week with
a gain of 1,000 contracts to their net bullish position.  Small
traders on the other hand grew more bearish by adding to their
existing chunk of shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
05/07/02       38,338     39,152     (814)   (1.1%)
05/14/02       40,858     35,761     5,097   (5.5%)
05/21/02       51,448     45,375     6,073   (6.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   7,774  - 12/21/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
05/07/02       13,229    13,161        68      0.3%
05/14/02       11,920    17,479    (5,559)     8.2% 
05/21/02       12,567    19,899    (7,332)    22.6%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow commercials grew less bullish last week by reducing their
long position and adding to their short position.  Small
traders remained flat in their actions.  

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
05/07/02       19,967    14,045    5,922     17.4%
05/14/02       21,080    14,725    6,355     14.4% 
05/21/02       20,173    15,317    4,856     13.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
05/07/02        5,124     9,831    (4,707)   (31.5%)
05/14/02        4,930    10,899    (5,969)   (25.2%) 
05/21/02        3,661     9,585    (5,924)   (44.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------



===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((new BULLISH play))
===============

Republic Services - RSG - cls: 21.15 chg: +0.75 stop: *text*

Company Description:  
Republic Services is, well, a garbage company. It provides non-
hazardous solid waste disposal in 22 states, with its business 
offering services to commercial, industrial, municipal and 
residential customers through the 146 companies it operates. 

Why We Like It:
We can say unequivocally that we do not find the garbage business 
very glamorous.  But reality is reality, and here is the 
investment reality we see: as the US economy improves, waste 
disposal--and the demand for this service--is simply bound to 
grow.  RSG is a leader in this industry and is now enjoying 
upward revisions for both its 2002 and 2003 profits.  Today, JP 
Morgan upgraded the stock based on the expectation that RSG will 
continue to benefit from investors' flight to quality in the 
present market environment.  JPM raised their earnings estimates 
for 2002 to $1.39 from $1.37 and to $1.54 from $1.49 for 2003.   
Technically, RSG has been in a consolidation for the last 2 
weeks, and we feel that today's upgrade and 3% price advance, 
which occurred on heavy volume, is the kind of lift-off the stock 
needs to begin a new leg higher.  The stock is demonstrating good 
technicals: RSI, Stochastics Oscillators, and MACD.  Our strategy 
for taking a long position in this stock will be as follows: 
officially, we'll only buy new positions on a move above today's 
high ($21.16 or higher).  Please note that there is a very good 
chance the stock will dip to support at about $20.73 in the next 
day or two, and aggressive traders may wish to wait for this and 
take long positions on such a decline.  Once this trade is 
activated, we'll use a stop just below the May 22 low ($19.87 or 
lower).  Over the next couple of weeks we think the stock can 
move to the $22.25 region or higher; accordingly, we are 
targeting an initial gain of about 4%-6% in this position.

May xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/29/02 (confirmed)
 






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The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 05-28-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/e28b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls     
  Bullish Play Updates:  SNE
  Bearish Play Updates:  BRCD, CLS, TBH

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     RSG
  Bullish Play Updates:  ATK, CR, DCN, DCX, GR, HRB, MHK, RIG, RKY, XRAY
  Bearish Play Updates:  BA, DHR, TSG
  Closed Bullish Plays:  OO

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  LU, PVN
  Closed Bullish Plays:  INVN

Split Trader
  Stock Splits
                         GMRK: 2-for-1 split announcement
 

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Sony - SNE - close: 58.23 change: -1.17 stop: 58.31 

Ahead of the shortened US trading week, Asian markets were 
generally flat to slightly down in over night trading.  Japan's 
Nikkei Average fell 40.27 points, or 0.3 percent, to 11,936.08, 
and this may have placed slight pressure on SNE during Tuesday's 
US trading session. Additional pressure may have been due to 
comments from a senior executive of phone maker Sony Ericsson who 
said Tuesday that sales of mobile phones were likely to increase 
only marginally in 2002. We noted recently that we thought a 
consolidation in the $60 range was likely given SNE's strong 
recent performance; we'll look for the stock to find support in 
the next few days in the $57.50 region. The stock still looks 
technically healthy. Our official profit-target remains at $62.49 
although aggressive traders may want to hold out for a potential 
move to the $65 level.  

Picked on April 4th at $53.01
Gain since picked:      +5.22
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Brocade - BRCD - close: 19.14 change: -0.47 stop: 21.26

In the absence of any notable news during the last few days, 
Brocade declined on Tuesday.  BRCD traded at its lowest levels 
since September 2001. Today's higher volume breakdown to new 
short-term lows should generate more weakness in coming days.  
The one item which could affect our short position is the mid-
quarter report issued by NVLS after today's close.  

Picked on May 22nd at $19.35 
Gain since picked:     +0.21
Earnings Date       04/15/02 (confirmed)




---

Celestica - CLS - close: 30.45 change: +0.19 stop: 33.21

Celestica's technical pattern remains week, exemplified by our 
modified Bollinger Bands (5-dma, 1.7 sd) that are pointed 
decidedly downward.  The daily Stochastic Oscillator has produced 
a short-term pattern, called a stochastic "hook," near its 
oversold region; when these occur more weakness nearly always 
follows.  Other negative considerations include the fact that CLS 
traded further into its May 14th gap today, and that its 50-dma 
remains in a fairly sharp down trend.  All of these support our 
short position in this stock.  

Picked on May 21st at $30.94
Gain since picked:     +0.54
Earnings Date       04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Telecom Brasil - TBH - close: 28.40 change: +0.40 stop: 30.01

Although TBH enjoyed a rebound today, we believe this equity is 
still building a negative technical formation.  It is likely to 
begin showing this weakness when its price breaks out of the 
current triangular consolidation it has been forming since May 
13th. We think that a fairly brisk decline will begin once TBH 
has moved back below $27.75--that is, once it has broken the 
bottom boundary of its triangle. As we said the other day, new 
short positions in TBH should be deferred until TBH has moved 
back below our shorting point of $27.70.

Picked on May 22nd at $27.70 
Gain since picked:     -0.70
Earnings Date            N/A
 





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=============
AT New Plays
=============

  ----------------
  New Bullish Play
  ---------------- 

Republic Services - RSG - cls: 21.15 chg: +0.75 stop: *text*

Company Description:  
Republic Services is, well, a garbage company. It provides non-
hazardous solid waste disposal in 22 states, with its business 
offering services to commercial, industrial, municipal and 
residential customers through the 146 companies it operates. 

Why We Like It:
We can say unequivocally that we do not find the garbage business 
very glamorous.  But reality is reality, and here is the 
investment reality we see: as the US economy improves, waste 
disposal--and the demand for this service--is simply bound to 
grow.  RSG is a leader in this industry and is now enjoying 
upward revisions for both its 2002 and 2003 profits.  Today, JP 
Morgan upgraded the stock based on the expectation that RSG will 
continue to benefit from investors' flight to quality in the 
present market environment.  JPM raised their earnings estimates 
for 2002 to $1.39 from $1.37 and to $1.54 from $1.49 for 2003.   
Technically, RSG has been in a consolidation for the last 2 
weeks, and we feel that today's upgrade and 3% price advance, 
which occurred on heavy volume, is the kind of lift-off the stock 
needs to begin a new leg higher.  The stock is demonstrating good 
technicals: RSI, Stochastics Oscillators, and MACD.  Our strategy 
for taking a long position in this stock will be as follows: 
officially, we'll only buy new positions on a move above today's 
high ($21.16 or higher).  Please note that there is a very good 
chance the stock will dip to support at about $20.73 in the next 
day or two, and aggressive traders may wish to wait for this and 
take long positions on such a decline.  Once this trade is 
activated, we'll use a stop just below the May 22 low ($19.87 or 
lower).  Over the next couple of weeks we think the stock can 
move to the $22.25 region or higher; accordingly, we are 
targeting an initial gain of about 4%-6% in this position.

May xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/29/02 (confirmed)
 



===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Adolph Coors - RKY - close: 67.30 change: -0.95 stop: 65.98

Shares of RKY pulled back 1.39% on Tuesday amid speculation that 
the growing popularity of "malternative" beverages such as 
Smirnoff Ice would eat away at the market share for Coors Light.  
It was a bit disappointing to see the stock fall back under $68 
just one session after setting a new 52-week high, but with the 
Dow Jones dropping 122 points it was an uphill battle for the 
bulls.  RKY is sitting between the 50-dma at $66.48 (support) and 
52-week high at $69.14 (possible resistance.)  Use these levels 
to gauge new entries, keeping in mind that shares may also face 
resistance at the $70 level.

Picked on May 2nd at $68.36
Gain since picked:    -0.11
Earnings Date      04/25/02 (confirmed) 




---
  
Alliant Techsystems - ATK - cls: 104.75 chg: -0.10 stop: 99.33

Thumbing its nose (nosecone?) at the weak broader market today 
was the DFX.X defense index, which finished ever-so-slightly in 
the green.  The relative strength may have been due to 
speculation over a possible war erupting between Pakistan and 
India.  From a technical standpoint, the index bounced almost 
exactly at its 50-dma.  ATK didn't fair quite as well, as shares 
posted a small loss and closed under the 50-dma ($105.24) for the 
second straight session.  With the stock testing the bottom of 
its ascending channel and the overall defense sector looking 
ready for a bounce, we're expecting some gains in the near 
future.  New entries can be evaluated if ATK breaks over the 50-
dma.

Picked on May 24th at $104.85
Change since picked:    -0.10
Earnings Date        05/09/02 (confirmed)


 

---

Crane Corporation - CR - cls: 27.93 chg: -0.47 stop: 26.94

Hmmm...Is this an entry point?  Time will tell, but CR is resting 
above what appears to be solid support.  The stock pulled back 
1.6% today and successfully tested its 50-dma at $27.60. This 
level roughly coincides with the 50% retracement of the May 7th 
low to May 24th high.  With our stop just under the 50-dma, 
relatively low-risk entries can be evaluated at current levels.  
Overhead resistance remains at $28.75-$29.00.

Picked on May 17th at $28.22 
Gain since picked:     +0.29
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

DaimlerChrysler - DCX - close: 49.96 change: +0.61 stop: 44.66

DCX bucked the broader market trend today and finished with a 
1.2% gain.  Despite a negative session on the German DAX, the 
DaimlerChrysler ADR gapped higher this morning and quickly traded 
to a 52-week high of $50.88.  Unfortunately, DCX finished under 
the $50 level after being dragged lower with the Dow Jones.  If 
shares head higher, a close over $50 or intraday move over $50.88 
would be a good time to assess new bullish positions.  Premier 
Investor is currently up 7.4% on this play.

Picked on May 6th at $46.50 
Gain since picked:    +3.46
Earnings Date      02/20/02 (confirmed)



 
---  

Dana Corp. - DCN - close: 22.03 change: -0.27 stop: 20.44

Shares of DCN continue to consolidate above $22 on light volume.  
Although it's nice to see this support level hold, the stock is 
experiencing a series of lower highs and we will feel more 
comfortable once DCN is able to move back above last Thursday's 
high ($22.55).  Such a move would allow it to retest the near-
term high at $23.22, but this may prove difficult if the broader 
market remains weak.  Conservative traders may want to raise 
their stops to $21.74 (below last week's low), but we feel 
confident that the 50-dma ($20.76) will protect our current stop.

Picked on May 17th at $22.26 
Change since picked:   -0.23
Earnings Date       04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Dentsply Intl. - XRAY - cls: 39.74 chg: -0.19 stop: 37.95

Our long play in XRAY was activated this morning after the stock 
moved above our trigger price at $40.25. The rally proved to be a 
head-fake, as shares quickly gravitated back to the $40 level.  
Volume was robust, coming in at 693K.  That's the highest reading 
since late January.  What can we make of this volume spike?  
Well, it could simply be the culmination of a steady increase in 
buying over the past week.  It could also portend a large move in 
the near future.  The MACD and daily Stochastics (5,3,3) are both 
looking bullish, suggesting such a move would be to the upside.  
Of course, the volume was not accompanied by positive price 
action.  In any case, we're looking for XRAY to make its way back 
above the $40 level and eventually test the 52-week high at 
$40.95.  Remember that our stop is set at $37.95.

Picked on May 28th at $40.25
Gain since picked:     -0.51
Earnings Date       04/14/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Goodrich Corp - GR - close: 33.84 change: +0.48 stop: 30.97 

GR just keeps creeping higher, using the bottom of its ascending 
channel as support.  Shares finished with a 1.4% gain today, 
which isn't too shabby compared to the triple-digit decline in 
the Dow Industrials.  It was also nice to see strong volume 
backing today's move.  Today's reading of 931K was the highest in 
over a month.  From a sector-wide perspective, we're encouraged 
by the DFX.X defense index's successful test of its 50-dma.  If 
GR continues its ascent tomorrow, a move over the multi-month 
high of $34.45 could provide a possible action point for new 
positions.

Picked on May 3rd at $31.97
Gain since picked:    +1.87
Earnings Date      04/24/02 (confirmed)


 

--- 

H&R Block - HRB - cls: 46.28 chg: -0.23 stop: 44.49

HRB must be taxing the bears' patience.  Shares outperformed the 
Dow for another session today after staging a late-morning 
recovery from below the $46 level.  Technically, we're still 
watching for a move over $47.00 to confirm a breakout from its 
reverse head-and-shoulders pattern.  The bullish daily 
stochastics (5,3,3) suggest this may occur, as does the recent 
trend of relative strength.

Picked on May 17th at $46.88 
Gain since picked:     -0.60
Earnings Date       06/12/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Mohawk Industries - MHK - cls: 67.00 chg: -1.30 stop: 64.87

Bearish caution flags were raised on Friday after MHK failed to 
rally with the homebuilding sector.  Shares didn't underperform 
the group as severely today, but nonetheless gave back another 
1.9%.  Although MHK appears to be gaining downward momentum, 
bulls can take some comfort in the fact that volume has not been 
increasing.  However, the MACD and daily stochastic oscillators 
are portending further selling this week.  If this were the case, 
we'd expect the selling to abate near the $65 level.  In addition 
to psychological support, this is the lower end of MHK's 
ascending regression channel.  Strong numbers from TOL, who 
announces earnings before the bell tomorrow, could help to give 
the homebuilding sector a boost.

Picked on May 3rd at $66.30
Gain since picked:    +0.70
Earnings Date      04/15/02 (confirmed) 




--- 

Transocean Inc. - RIG - close: 38.25 change: +0.28 stop: 36.84

RIG made back some of the previous session's 3.2% loss today, as 
shares shrugged off a decline in the price of oil (cl02n) and 
overall weakness in the broader market. Morgan Stanley raised its 
rating on Pride International, also an oil services company, and 
this seemed to help the entire sector, including RIG.  Aggressive 
traders could use the Inside Day strategy to go long on a move 
above today's high of $38.87, although the more prudent approach 
would be to wait for a move over the Thursday high of $39.33.  
We'd also like to see the daily stochastics (5,3,3 setting) 
reverse course.  They're currently heading lower from the upper 
band, indicating that RIG may be due for some additional 
consolidation before making a break for the $40 level.  

Picked on May 23rd at $39.26
Gain since picked:     -1.01
Earnings Date:      4/30/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Boeing Company - BA - close: 43.00 change: -0.35 stop: 45.80

The IRS's contention that Boeing understated its net income from 
1979 to 1987 was in the news today, as the US Supreme court agreed 
to resolve the $419 million disagreement between the Internal 
Revenue Service and aerospace firm.  At issue is the way BA 
accounted for research and development costs, which it had 
designated as coming from its foreign sales units. With both this 
and general market weakness surrounding BA today, its stock moved 
lower.  BA is now approaching its 200-dma, which sits at $42.04.  
The stock may attempt to find support here. If it moves below this 
level, we'll continue to look for a decline to the April low of 
$41.00. New short positions should be considered only once a close 
under the 200-dma has been accomplished.

Picked on May 21st at $44.35
Gain since picked:     +1.35
Earnings Date       07/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Danaher Corp. - DHR - close: 69.57 change: -1.83 stop: 73.01

DHR opened marginally lower this morning after the Memorial Day 
weekend, and simply dropped from there.  As we noted when we 
initiated this play, the stock appears to be forming a fairly 
large head and shoulders top; this topping process goes back to 
early March 2002.  Bearish positions can still be considered on a 
move below $69.03.  Once below its recent low of $68.79, we 
believe that a sharper decline in the stock is likely.

Picked on May 13th at $69.03
Gain since picked:     -0.54
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed) 




--- 

Sabre Holdings - TSG - cls: 36.96 chg: -0.97 stop: 39.10 *new*

TSG traded today at its lowest levels in more than five months--
even though the company announced that it was initiating a major 
new advertising and branding campaign for its popular 
Travelocity.com web site. We said on Friday that a move below $37 
might provide an opportunity to open new short positions, and 
this is still the case.  Another shorting location would be a 
rebound up to resistance in the $38.00-$38.40 region.  Please 
note that we have lowed our buy stop in order to protect some of 
the profits we have established in this position.

Picked on May 13th at $39.74
Gain since picked:     +2.78
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Oakley Inc. - OO - cls: 18.43 chg: -0.35 stop: 18.23

Well, this play didn't last long.  It was triggered early Tuesday 
morning after OO hit our entry price of $18.91.  Shares were 
unable to break through the $19 level and proceeded to slide 
lower with the Dow.  An afternoon decline brought OO below our 
stop-loss at $18.23, which closed the play for a loss of 68 
cents.  We continue to like the stock as a long play (based on 
the reasons listed in the original play description), but would 
probably wait for shares to move over $19.00 before going long.  
More conservative types could wait for a close over stubborn 
resistance at $20.00.

Picked on May 28th at $18.91
Gain since picked:     -0.68
Earnings Date       04/17/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Lucent Technologies - LU - close: 4.85 change: +0.18 stop: *text*

Finally some good news for Lucent Technologies.  The company 
announced this morning that it had been awarded a multi-year 
agreement with SBC Communications Inc to provide SBC with its 
Internet Protocol Centrex solution, a process that allows 
business customers employ cutting-edge central office-based 
services.  Out strategy with LU has not changed since we 
presented this potential play:  LU has a fast move region, and a 
gap, from $5.03 to $6.06, and we want to catch the stock once it 
begins a sharp upward move into this region.  Our sell stop is 
still at $4.49. No long positions should be initiated until the 
$5.04 level has been hit and exceeded.

Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date      04/22/02 (confirmed) 




---

Providian Financial - PVN - cls: 7.52 chg: -0.33 stop: 6.99

Fitch Ratings downgraded PVN's senior debt on Thursday, and we 
were impressed that PVN was able to disregard this action when it 
actually advanced the following day. But one day can make a big 
difference.  In the absence of any other news to explain today's 
poor performance in the stock, we're speculating that today's 
sharp 4% plunge was a delayed reaction to the Fitch downgrade.  
Even with the decline, PVN has clawed its way higher since May 
6th, using its rising 50-dma as support. The stock still has 
troublesome resistance in the $8.00 region.  We need to see this 
level broken before we'd encourage any new long positions in the 
stock.  

Picked on May 22nd at $7.66
Gain since picked:    -0.14
Earnings Date      05/06/02 (confirmed)





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

InVision Technologies - INVN - cls: 23.35 chg: -0.67 stop: $23.08

Post-Memorial Day weakness forced our high risk trade in INVN 
downward at the open, hitting our sell stop of $23.08 during the 
first few minutes of trading. Had we been able to avoid the first 
couple of minutes of trading, we'd still be in this trade since 
it rebounded sharply shortly after the open.   We still believe 
this play can a potentially attractive trade in the near future, 
but at this point the trade is closed with an 8% loss.  

Picked on May 24th at $25.21
Gain since picked:     -2.13
Earnings Date       04/23/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

GulfMark Offshore Announces 2:1 Stock Split

Just in time for the lunch hour today, GulfMark Offshore Inc.
(NASDAQ: GMRK) announced a two-for-one stock split.

The split will take the form of a 100% stock dividend and will be
distributed on June 28, 2002 to shareholders of record on June
10, 2002.

GRMK has not split in the past five years.  The stock recently
tagged a multi-year high of $49.25 and has gained nearly 48% YTD.

Shares closed at $41.88 on Friday. For a current quote, click
here:

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=GMRK

About the company
GulfMark Offshore Inc. provides marine transportation services to
the energy industry through a fleet of fifty-three (53) offshore
support vessels, primarily in the North Sea, offshore Southeast
Asia, Brazil and West Africa. (source: company press release).


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
-------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

LIHRY   Lihir Gold Ltd ADR         17.76     +1.36
JOUT    Johnson Outdoors Inc       18.00     +1.60

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MDG     Meridian Gold Inc          19.17     +1.03
GRL     Gulf Indonesia Res Ltd     13.17     +2.42
KNDL    Kendle Intl. Inc           13.18     +1.38

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AU      Anglogold Ltd              34.29     +1.63
BVN     Compania De Minas Buena    31.71     +1.11
GG      Goldcorp Inc               23.21     +1.05
LSTR    Landstar System Inc       104.76     +6.91
FNIS    Fidelity Natl Info Sol     31.25     +1.29
VGR     Vector Group Inc           20.02     +1.12
WTFC    Wintrust Financial Corp    28.24     +1.19

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

HD      Home Depot Inc             41.54     -1.88
FO      Fortune Brands Inc         51.73     -2.82
GP      Georgia-Pacific Corp       27.53     -1.37
BARZ    Barra Inc                  46.28     -4.83
GAP     Great Atlantic & Pac Tea   21.07     -4.03
POWL    Powell Industries Inc      21.25     -2.12

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SC      Shell Transport & Trading  45.75     -1.28
COH     Coach Inc                  52.88     -2.23
CCJ     Cameco Corp                27.62     -1.14



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