PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 05-30-2002 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/e30b_1.asp ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Weird Day, Interesting Ending Play-of-the-Day: Grawing at All-time Highs Market Sentiment: One Day Chance ----------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Market Numbers ----------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ----------------------------------------------------------------- 05-30-2002 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 9910.70 - 11.30 9943.50 9802.20 1236 mln 1493/1681 NASDAQ 1631.92 + 7.53 1637.65 1607.30 1360 mln 1664/1767 S&P 100 528.88 - 1.16 531.56 523.31 totals 3157/3448 S&P 500 1064.66 - 3.00 1069.50 1054.26 RUS 2000 487.83 + 0.23 489.57 482.60 DJ TRANS 2717.96 - 6.96 2725.51 2697.96 VIX 23.14 - 0.54 24.51 22.77 VIXN 46.57 - 1.00 47.66 45.04 Put/Call Ratio 0.80 ----------------------------------------------------------------- =========== Market Wrap =========== Weird day, interesting ending Today was perhaps what I would describe as a "weird day, with an interesting ending." The markets came to a standstill at around 10:30 AM EST today as the traders observed 2-minutes of silence in order to reflect on the terrorist attacks of September 11th and observe the end of recovery efforts at the World Trade Center location in Manhattan, New York. The most widely quoted market average had the Dow Industrials (INDU) trading in negative territory of the bulk of the session, only to rally near the close of trading to finish at 9,911 -0.1%. Many found it interesting if not very coincidental that the day recovery efforts ended at the World Trade Center location from the September 11th attacks, having the last three digit close of the Dow "911" also remembering what happened in the heavily populated financial district. It should also be noted that today's low in the Dow Industrials (INDU) came at 9,802.23. This is once again rather peculiar as the Dow hasn't traded 9,800 despite some pretty close calls on April 29th at 9,811.57 (rallied to 10,117 following 3 sessions) and May 6th at 9,807.69 (rallied to 10,353.43 9 sessions later). It still appears this is a level of support that is still finding some buyers. Volume picked up a bit from previous sessions as the NYSE total volume came in at 1.2 billion, compared to recent session of under 1 billion shares. Volume also picked up on the NASDAQ Composite with just over 1.5 billion traded. Breadth was marginally negative with 8 stocks declining versus 7 advancing on the NYSE, while decliners outnumbered gainers on the NASDAQ by a 17 to 16 margin. Today's trading was overshadowed with rising tensions between Pakistan and India, which had many traders on edge. Defense stocks as depicted by the PHLX Defense Index (DFX.X) 200.98 +0.91% showed gains, after recently pulling into its rising 50-day moving average. PHLX Defense Index (DFX.X) - Daily Interval I should have perhaps been more alert last night to what was taking place in Pakistan and India. There was undoubtedly some good trades in this group of stocks today. The DFX.X came right into its trending higher 50-day moving average and the lower end of upward regression, both good places to be looking for some support and using events in the Middle East to be a catalyst for a near-term move higher. It is worth noting that the "group" didn't surge. One stock in the group that did "surge" or at least had a nice gain was shares of Rockwell Collins (NYSE:COL) $26.52 +6.08%. I did profile this stock as bullish in this morning's market monitor before the market open at OptionInvestor.com, unfortunately I didn't find it for this morning's 09:00 Update, but there were some strikingly similar technicals at play in COL that were present in the DFX.X. This may still come in handy for traders in coming sessions. Rockwell Collins Chart - Daily Interval I don't think I was the only one that built the "correlation" between the DFX.X, COL, and events in the Middle East this morning. We've profiled COL as bullish in the past and simply missed this one. Rockwell Collins (COL) is NOT a component of the DFX.X, but still a "defense" stock that correlates well with the index. Components of the DFX.X are (ATK, BA, DRS, EASI, EDO, ESL, GD, GE, GY, ITT, LLL, LMT, NOC, RTN, TDY, UTX). So what about Goodrich? Goodrich (NYSE:GR) $33.31 -0.44% is a "defense" stock that has been profiled as bullish in our play list since May 3rd. Nope, they don't make tires, they are a supplier of systems and services to the commercial and military aviation markets. Today's action in GR shows the stock didn't participate in the "defense" bullishness and most likely that's simply due to current supply/demand issues. The technicals in GR look very similar to the DFX.X and even COL and we're expecting a move higher from current levels, but want to see further bullishness in the sector to help out. Goodrich Corporation Chart - Daily Interval It has been a slow, yet gradual move higher in Goodrich (GE) since our profiling of the stock on May 3rd. I think the stock is currently trying to "eat through" some remaining overhead supply dating back just prior to the terrorist attacks. Some general bullishness from the defense group couldn't hurt and perhaps have some old bulls changing their minds about selling. The lower highs from MACD is worth noting, thus near-term importance of stock price appreciation to get MACD to kick higher. If GR can get back above mid-level of regression (currently $34.75) then the upper end of regression near $37 is a good trading target. Triple whack! All three of the energy traders we discussed last night saw some downside action today as El Paso (NYSE:EP) $25.50 -5.59%, Williams Company (NYSE:WMB) $14.00 -9.5% and Aquila (NYSE:ILA) $12.38 -10.67% traded 52-week lows. Yesterday, El Paso (EP) got crushed lower, but was defended by Lehman Brothers today. Lehman upgraded EP to "buy" from "market perform" based on credit clarity, noting that EP's restructuring/repositioning action has drawn favorable reaction from the rating agencies, with Moody's affirming Baa2 and S&P commenting in a positive vein. Lehman's 12-month price target is $33. Salomon Smith Barney on the other hand downgraded shares of El Paso (EP), Mirant (NYSE:MIR) $9.05 -4.02% , Auila (ILA) and Williams (WMB), which aided in the declines. Salomon cited continued scrutiny by the debt rating agencies, mounting legal and regulatory risks and concerns over heightened challenges for their business models as reasons for downgrading. "We believe all of these will likely negatively impact the earnings potential and growth outlooks of merchant business," said analyst Ray Niles in a research note. "Until these issues are resolved, we expect upside for the entire group to be limited and for the most credit sensitive stocks to trade at or near their respective asset values." I (Jeff Bailey) am not sure what "asset values" Mr. Niles is talking about, but I'm thinking that book value is a place to start. According to recent filings here is the calculated "book value" for each stock mentioned by Mr. Niles. EP=$17.56, MIR=$13.62, ILA= $22.43 and WMB= $11.18. As you can see, EP and WMB still trade above their book values, while MIR and ILA trade below book value. According to Investopedia.com (a financial terms dictionary), Book Value is basically the net asset value of a company. Calculated by total assets minus intangible assets (patents, goodwill) minus liabilities. I can't remember what Enron's book value was. However, when a company "cooks its books" it can still be tough to be sure. As always, all that really matters is what the MARKET thinks, as it is the eventual determiner of a stock's price. Some reversals in technology Part of what made today's action rather "weird" was a Wall Street Journal report regarding talks between that body and software giant Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) $52.64 +1.13%. What? SEC talks and a gain in the stock? What gives here? The article said that Microsoft (MSFT) and the SEC are in negotiations to resolve long-standing SEC allegations that the company artificially DIMINISHED its results to satisfy Wall Street's demand for steady revenue and profit growth. Reportedly, MSFT will not have to pay a fine, but may face civil charges that the company failed to keep accurate records. Microsoft Chart - Daily Interval I'll admit that I just don't have a directional bias on MSFT right now. I've been monitoring this stock like a hawk watching a mouse in recent weeks. The stock has traded strong "relative" to broader technology, but current technicals leave me 50/50. As I look at it, in the past week, any time a trader shorted a break below the mid-point of regression, the stock rallied. Under recent market conditions, I would have thought the stock would have at least had some more volatile downward spikes. Also confusing is I just can't get a feel for how the MARKET might respond to what kind of "understatement" of earnings Microsoft (MSFT) has been giving. I can't say that this "understatement" of financials is necessarily anything new in financial reporting. For years, companies like MSFT and Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) $16.01 were said to have "deferred" revenues to try and smooth out seasonal cycles and have quarterly financials end up smoothing out a bit. I'm not saying this type of accounting is correct, ethical, or anything else, but I was always taught that if you're going to represent any type of financial "result," its better to do it on the side of caution. The only thing that might have made today any "weirder" was if a group of bears sued Microsoft (MSFT) for misrepresenting their financials. I've seen just about everything else, so don't rule it out. By session's end, the GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) 123.12 +2.5% came out as today's sector winner. Helping the sector's gains were shares of PeopleSoft (NASDAQ:PSFT) $21.04 +8.51% trading strong after Soundview said that early gains in PSFT, ORCL, SAP and SEBL was likely due to channel checks in the enterprise software group, indicating visibility in May has significantly improved and is running ahead of last year, and that professional services firms are indicating a significant increase in requests for proposals. For now, I (Jeff Bailey) will take some notes regarding Soundview's channel checks, but requests for proposals (RFPs) are a reason for some bears to lock in gains, but not necessarily a reason to get bullish on the sector. However, I'll try and keep an eye on some of the stocks in the enterprise resource group just in case. While Soundview didn't mention these two stocks, I'd also add Kronos (NASDAQ:KRON) $40.06 +0.32% and SAP (NYSE:SAP) $26.50 +1.53% to a watch list for Soundview's analysis. Semiconductors post first gain in 8 sessions It's been 8 consecutive days of declines for the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 480.52 +0.08%, but the streak was broken on this the 9th trading session. It didn't look good for the sector at the open as a pre-market comment from Prudential and trimming of earnings estimates on Genesis Microchip (NASDAQ:GNSS) $16.70 -28% saw that stock get crushed throughout the session and break to a new 52-week low. While GNSS is not a component of the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X), just the thought that a graphic chip maker was having its earnings estimates cut, sent some shivers through the sector. One "positive" comment I saw today in the sector related to programmable chip maker Altera (NASDAQ:ALTR) $18.39 +1.26%. In today's market monitor on OptionInvestor.com, I noted at 02:08:58 PM EST.... Altera (ALTR) $18.06 -0.54% ... Prudential says their impression is that ALTR's new Stratix product is gaining more design-win momentum than firm had expected, and if this continues it should translate into a rapid ramp for this product over the next several quarters; also, software support feedback for Stratix is quite good, unlike several years ago with Apex, which led to market share losses. Pru reiterates "buy" rating and $28 price target. I viewed this as very "stock specific" and probably not a "sector moving" call. For the most part, ALTR's intraday action after that comment from Prudential saw similar impact on the entire sector and broader market. Besides, I already stuck my neck out For now, I've gotten bullish enough in technology, specifically with semiconductors with Friday morning's "line in the sand" comments regarding a bullish 1/2 position in Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) $27.42 +0.55%. Much like the SOX.X, Intel has edged lower day after day. The potential for the "reverse head and shoulders" pattern from the bar chart has been eliminated when the stock broke below the $27.50 level yesterday. However, today's trade at $27, had the stock testing the bullish support trend on the point and figure chart. For now, stop remains as profiled in my commentary at $25 and things would get interesting should the stock trade $32. Yep, that seems "weird" to be thinking this way, but hey, today was a weird day, so I'll just try and blend in. After hours news Traders that may have traded shares of PDA-maker Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) $14.65 -2.2% from recent bearish commentary, are seeing some further downside action in after-hours trading tonight at $14.35. It wasn't anything RIMM said, but what fellow PDA-maker Palm Inc. (NASDAQ:PALM) $2.21 -4.78% said in after-hours trading. Palm (PALM) announced that its Q4 revenue will be approximately $230 million versus the consensus estimate for revenues of $297.8 million, saying market conditions deteriorated compared to both the year-ago quarter and recent months. This has most likely put another cloud on the horizon for RIMM as it relates to our prior thinking that Handspring's (NASDAQ:HAND) $2.02 -3.80 new Treo PDA might bring some further competition to RIMM's BlackBerry. Tomorrow's economic data Revised Productivity and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released. The productivity revision will be released prior to the open, while the Michigan sentiment will come out during trading. Also due out during market hours is Factor Orders for April. Economists are looking for a 0.3% gain. While the MARKET seems to have concentrated more on what is going on overseas than here at home in recent sessions, we never know what type of reaction any surprises from the economic data might bring. Stay alert and don't be complacent! Jeff Bailey Senior Market Technician ========================= Play-of-the-Day (BULLISH play) ========================= Dentsply Intl. - XRAY - cls: 40.26 chg: +0.78 stop: 37.95 Company Description: XRAY manufactures dental prosthetics, precious metal alloys for dental use, ceramics products for dentistry, endodontic instruments, injectible anesthetics, and crown and bridge materials. - ORIGINAL WRITE UP: May 24th, 2002 - Why We Like It: In conjunction with Zacks Investment Research, Fortune Magazine has developed a list of "all analysts" from a field of more than 5,500 brokerage analysts, who consistently beat their peers. One of these "All Star" analysts is Ed Snyder who recently recommended XRAY (May 3rd). According to his research, he expects XRAY to produce EPS surprises and upward earnings revisions in coming quarters; he believes that these EPS successes will drive prices higher. The stock sports a PE of 26 and has a projected growth rate of 27%, meaning that it trades at an extremely attractive PEG of under 1.00. At a technical level, the stock has been in a broad sideways consolidation since mid- April. This past week, though, XRAY began edging very close to a breakout level of $40.25, doing so on increasing volume. We like the fact that daily and weekly momentum indicators are all at high levels, supporting our notion of an imminent breakout. We would suggest taking long positions in XRAY once it has moved above a trigger price of $40.25, with a sell stop placed just beneath the rising 50-dma, at $37.95. If XRAY breaks out as we expect, our initial price target will be $43.25 but aggressive traders might consider aiming for a move towards the $45 level. Keep an eye on the MACD. It looks like a bullish crossover is imminent. - Most Recent Update: May 30th, 2002 - You know that agonizing combination of dread and anticipation that you feel when the dentist's drill starts buzzing just inches from your teeth? That must be how XRAY bears feel right now. The stock gained nearly 2% today on strong volume of 533K versus the 318K average and finished over the $40 level. That's a new all-time closing high. The near-term high at $40.70 and all-time high at $40.95 are looking very vulnerable, especially considering the fact that the MACD has just produced a bullish crossover. Entries can be evaluated at current levels, although cautious traders (or those with a longer-term approach) may want to wait for a close above $41. - Play-of-the-Day Comments: May 30th, 2002 - With the MACD signaling a fresh bullish crossover, we think odds are good that XRAY will be setting new all-time highs in the near future. We like the close over the $40 mark and the decent volume. We're looking for a follow through heading into the weekend. Picked on May 28th at $40.25 Gain since picked: +0.01 Earnings Date 04/14/02 (confirmed) ================ Market Sentiment ================ One Day Chance By Eric Utley Well, so much for the post Memorial Day rally. Or maybe Thursday's little late day ramp job was the beginning of the rally. It seems a little late, though. The Nasdaq-100 (NDX.X) has about 2 percent, or about 25 points to go for a positive finish for this week, which is certainly possible with month's end. Those wily fund managers like to play games at the end of the month in an attempt to try to boost short term performance, and in turn appeasing investors who've taken it on the chin once again this year. With the light holiday volume it would be pretty easy to push around tech stocks tomorrow, so that's something to keep in mind going into the session. Elsewhere, there was a trend in the sector scorecard that I'd like to touch upon. There was a concentrated amount of selling in some of the more economically senstive sectors today, which didn't show up in the closing figures for the broader market averages. What I saw was weakness in the Airlines, Cyclicals, and Paper stocks that was disconcerting for those who are believers in the second-half recovery thesis. Without the participation from the aformentioned groups, Thursday's late day rally seems to me nothing more than another short covering rally with a bit of month-end buying thrown in. That's not to say it won't continue into tomorrow's session, because I think it will. But looking out into next week, things don't look so well for the bulls. And at the risk of sounding like a broken record, I didn't like the action in the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) Thursday. The S&P 100 (OEX.X) finished off of its lows, but still fractionally lower. Yet the VIX couldn't manage to trade higher, revealing ever more complacency in the market. The mere sight of the rebound in the OEX was enough for the VIX to roll over from its earlier rally attempt. Tying this observation in with our sector observations, I think that there's a lot of risk to the OEX names minus tech components. The one potentially bullish metric in tonight's sentiment is the short term ARMS Index reading. The 5-day moving average is creeping back into extreme oversold readings, perhaps signaling a short term relief rally around the corner. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 11350 52-week Low : 8062 Current : 9912 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10127 50-dma: 10167 200-dma: 9890 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1316 52-week Low : 945 Current : 1065 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1085 50-dma: 1103 200-dma: 1116 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 2071 52-week Low : 1089 Current : 1128 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1269 50-dma: 1325 200-dma: 1445 Software ($GSO) Here's an unfamiliar sector to the best peforming spot. But the GSO earned it Thursday with its 2.50 percent rally on bullish comments from Wall Street. Leaders to the upside included Veritas (NASDAQ:VRTS), Rational Software (NASDAQ:RATL), PeopleSoft (NASDAQ:PSFTA), and Siebel Systems (NASDAQ:SEBL). 52-week High: 241 52-week Low : 112 Current : 123 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 126 50-dma: 139 200-dma: 159 Gold and Silver ($XAU) The profit takers did just that in the XAU, which earned the day's worst performing sector spot with its 2.44 percent give back. Leading to the downside included Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI), Harmony Gold (NASDAQ:HGMCY), Anglogold (NYSE:AU), and Barrick (NYSE:ABX). 52-week High: 89 52-week Low : 49 Current : 84 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 84 50-dma: 75 200-dma: 62 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Volatility I though we might finally witness the VIX trade higher in conjunction with stocks Thursday, but it didn't happen. The fear gauge imploded on the late day rebound. The VXN did have some stick to it, closing higher on the rebound in the NDX. From this little observation, I'd be more inclined to be bullish on tech stocks for a trade than the NYSE names. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 22.96 -0.07 Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN) - 46.62 +0.91 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.82 300,464 245,610 Equity Only 0.59 257,679 152,740 OEX 1.00 12,617 12,627 QQQ 0.27 17,345 4,689 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 63 + 0 Bull Confirmed NASDAQ-100 40 - 1 Bull Correction DOW 67 + 0 Bear Correction S&P 500 64 + 0 Bull Confirmed S&P 100 66 + 0 Bear Correction Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-Day Arms Index 1.47 10-Day Arms Index 1.22 21-Day Arms Index 1.27 55-Day Arms Index 1.31 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when the do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals Advancers Decliners NYSE 1494 1697 NASDAQ 1676 1757 New Highs New Lows NYSE 77 60 NASDAQ 95 133 Volume (in millions) NYSE 1,237 NASDAQ 1,574 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 05/21/02 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 S&P commercials added more longs than shorts last week, resulting in an decrease in the group's net bearish position. Small traders did just the opposite for a net increase in their bullish positions. Small traders are less than 2,000 contracts away from their most bullish reading of the year. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 05/07/02 348,019 422,801 (74,782) (9.7%) 05/14/02 343,941 424,893 (80,952) (12.1%) 05/21/02 354,039 429,803 (75,764) (9.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01 Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 05/07/02 154,664 59,583 95,081 44.4% 05/14/02 163,035 58,587 104,448 49.8% 05/21/02 164,964 58,950 106,014 47.3% Most bearish reading of the year: 36,513 - 5/01/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02 NASDAQ-100 Nasdaq commercials grew slightly more bullish last week with a gain of 1,000 contracts to their net bullish position. Small traders on the other hand grew more bearish by adding to their existing chunk of shorts. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 05/07/02 38,338 39,152 (814) (1.1%) 05/14/02 40,858 35,761 5,097 (5.5%) 05/21/02 51,448 45,375 6,073 (6.3%) Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 7,774 - 12/21/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 05/07/02 13,229 13,161 68 0.3% 05/14/02 11,920 17,479 (5,559) 8.2% 05/21/02 12,567 19,899 (7,332) 22.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (9,877) - 12/21/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,460 - 3/13/01 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Dow commercials grew less bullish last week by reducing their long position and adding to their short position. Small traders remained flat in their actions. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 05/07/02 19,967 14,045 5,922 17.4% 05/14/02 21,080 14,725 6,355 14.4% 05/21/02 20,173 15,317 4,856 13.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 05/07/02 5,124 9,831 (4,707) (31.5%) 05/14/02 4,930 10,899 (5,969) (25.2%) 05/21/02 3,661 9,585 (5,924) (44.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,777) - 10/12/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 05-30-2002 section 2 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/e30b_2.asp ================================================================= In section two: Net Bulls Bearish Play Updates: BRCD, CLS, TBH Stock Bottom / Active Trader New Bullish Plays: AZO, RJR Bullish Play Updates: ATK, CR, DCN, DCX, GR, RIG, RSG, THC, XRAY Bearish Play Updates: BA, DHR, TSG Closed Bullish Plays: HRB, RKY High Risk/Reward Bullish Play Updates: LU, PVN Split Trader BEL: 3-for-2 split announcement EXPD: 2-for-1 split announcement Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Brocade - BRCD - close: 19.11 change: +0.78 stop: 20.61 *new* Uh-oh! Bears need to be on alert. Shares of BRCD bounced with the markets today on decent volume considering the trend. Worse still was the candlestick formation created today - a bullish engulfing pattern, which is (big surprise) bullish. Since the downtrend in the Nasdaq and BRCD are still in effect we're going to keep the play open but we'll lower our stop. Shares failed twice last week near the $20.60 mark so our new stop will be $20.61. More conservative traders might consider something just north of $20.00. In the news today, BRCD filed a quarterly report with the SEC with answers and counterclaims against McData Corp who is suing Brocade over patent infringement. BRCD claims the lawsuit is without merit. Picked on May 22nd at $19.35 Gain since picked: +0.23 Earnings Date 04/15/02 (confirmed) --- Celestica - CLS - close: 29.50 change: -0.20 stop: 32.01 *new* Shares of CLS have rolled over as expected and we're very encouraged by the new closes under the $30 level. The stock has begun to fall away from the top band of its descending regression channel but we did see a small afternoon bounce today. Bears should also take note that the MACD is performing a beautiful bearish rollover right up against the zero line but this doesn't preclude a potential bounce back to the $30 or $30.50 area. Personally, we'd prefer to see CLS remain below the $30 mark and another failed rally there might be a new entry point. We are lowering our stop to $32.01 and this will still keep the stop both above the top of the channel and above the 10 & 50-dma's. Picked on May 21st at $30.94 Gain since picked: +1.44 Earnings Date 04/17/02 (confirmed) --- Telecom Brasil - TBH - close: 29.12 change: -0.28 stop: 30.01 Hmmm... one might think we've been outwitted by TBH in our bearish strategy. Since we've picked it the darn thing has gone almost straight up (slowly) back to overhead resistance. The next couple of days could be key to the future direction of TBH. Shares are essentially sitting just below the top edge of its descending regression channel (from the early March highs) and below the $29.65 and $30.00 overhead resistance levels. Traders can watch the $29.65 level as an early warning signal. A move above this mark will probably forecast that we're about to be stopped out. We're still bearish but we need to see some confirmation and we would not recommend new positions until the stock began to rollover again. However, more aggressive traders could certainly consider this a low risk entry since our stop is so close. We did note that another south-of-the-border communication stock, TMX, fell pretty hard yesterday and closed under its 200-dma. There was no bounce in shares of TMX today and this negativity could carry over into TBH again. Picked on May 22nd at $27.70 Gain since picked: -1.42 Earnings Date N/A ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== ============= AT New Plays ============= ----------------- New Bullish Plays ----------------- Autozone - AZO - close: 82.56 change: +1.91 stop: 78.94 Company Description: AutoZone sells auto and light truck parts, chemicals and accessories through 3,052 AutoZone stores in 44 states plus the District of Columbia in the U.S. and 27 AutoZone stores in Mexico and also sells the ALLDATA brand automotive diagnostic and repair software. On the web, AutoZone sells diagnostic and repair information through alldatadiy.com, and auto and light truck parts through AutoZone.com. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: In a market where investors are searching high and low for companies that are increasing revenues and sales, AZO might be just what they are looking for. The company recently released their Q3 earnings report and the numbers were good. Earnings per share were up 71%, net profit was up 61% and sales were up 11%. The EPS estimates were 78 cents and AZO turned in 96 cents a share, which beat the 56 cents from a year ago. Management said that sales were rising as the number of aging vehicles on the road grows. You might want to take note that AZO is typically seen as a specialty retailer and that may be what's saving it from the downturn that recently hit the auto-parts makers. A downgrade by USB Warburg on shares of Lear Corp (LEA) and BorgWarner (BWA) to "hold" from "buy", claiming high valuations, hit the entire group. Shares of DCN and DPH and CUM were also hit by the downgrade. In contrast, buyers stepped into AZO today after a nice pullback to the new support/previous resistance at $80 (on the daily chart). We also like the pattern on the PnF chart and the current bullish price objective is north of $100. Despite our enthusiasm for what we see in AZO we are going to be conservative with our stop and place it just under the $79.00 level. This should keep our risk less than 5%. We're going to be a little aggressive and target a move to $97.50 but we'd be happy to see AZO hit $90. Given the defensive nature of the market right now, a company that is increasing sales with a growing market (aging cars on the road) is bound to attract investor attention. Picked on May 30th at $82.56 Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 05/21/02 (confirmed) --- RJ Reynolds - RJR - close: 70.34 change: +0.17 stop: 67.94 Company Description: R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Holdings, Inc. is the parent company of R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company and Santa Fe Natural Tobacco Company, Inc. R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company is the second-largest tobacco company in the United States, manufacturing about one of every four cigarettes sold in the United States. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: Tobacco stocks are on the move. Sector leader MO set a multi- year high today after it announced the sale of Miller Brewing to South African Breweries. Other strong stocks in the group include BTI, UST and RJR. We think the latter is an attractive bullish play, even more so than MO. RJR has performed nicely since bouncing from the 50-dma ($67.68) in mid-May and received a shot in the arm on Thursday after MER initiated coverage on the company. This created a powerful bounce from the bottom of RJR's ascending regression channel. We also like the MACD, which is about to produce a bullish crossover. The previous two crossovers (in early February and early April) preceded strong rallies. The broader market hardly seems ready to explode to the upside (unlike Pakistan and India), but that could actually work to our advantage. Tobacco stocks are traditionally defensive plays that do well during market downtrends or periods of uncertainty. Due to the bullish technical developments listed above, we think RJR will break though resistance at $72 and trade to all-time highs. With no overhead supply the breakout could be powerful. We're going to initially target the $75 level, although we wouldn't hesitate to exit if shares falter near the top of the regression channel around $74. Our initial stop-loss is set at $67.94, just under the bottom of the channel. Picked on May 30th at $70.34 Change since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/18/02 (confirmed) =============== AT Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Alliant Techsystems - ATK - cls: 107.29 chg: +2.27 stop: 99.33 So far, so good. ATK outperformed the broader market today and tacked on 2.1%, moving above the 50-dma ($105.55) and back into its ascending channel. The relative strength may have been due to reports that Pakistan was massing more troops along the Indian border. A full-fledged outbreak of war could spark a short-term rally in defense contractors. In terms of sector performance, the DFX.X defense index once again found support at its 50-dma and finished the day with a small gain. If ATK keeps rising on Friday we'd anticipate some resistance at the $110 level. Cautious traders may want to tighten their stops to $102.27, just under the Wednesday low. Picked on May 24th at $104.85 Change since picked: +2.44 Earnings Date 05/09/02 (confirmed) --- Crane Corporation - CR - cls: 27.53 chg: -0.02 stop: 26.94 In the most recent update for CR we discussed how the stock had bounced from what appeared to be solid support at the 50-dma. This level was successfully tested again on Wednesday but was violated after shares gapped lower this morning. The stock briefly clawed its way into positive territory but ultimately was unable to close over the 50-dma. Overall, we think the lighter- than-average volume and fractional loss suggests a lack of direction. Although the MACD is beginning to curl lower, the daily stochastics (5,3,3) are approaching the oversold extreme, which indicates that the recent downtrend may soon come to an end. Considering that our stop is at $26.94, entries with a relatively small amount of risk could be considered if CR bounces from current levels. Just keep in mind that CR could dip a bit lower to the $27 mark before it tries to rebound. Picked on May 17th at $28.22 Gain since picked -0.69 Earnings Date 04/18/02 (confirmed) --- DaimlerChrysler - DCX - close: 49.14 change: -1.13 stop: 44.66 Our automotive ADR gapped lower this morning following a triple- digit decline on the German DAX. The U.S. markets weren't exactly a bastion of strength either, and DCX trended lower with the Dow Jones for most of today's session before finishing with a loss of 2.2%. Not only was the $50 level abandoned, but shares also fell below last week's lows. Lest we get too negative, it's worth pointing out that the stock did not violate its two-month uptrend and is firmly above the 50-dma at $46.75. The afternoon recovery also bodes well for the bulls. However, if DCX does head lower on Friday, traders looking for new entries can target a bounce from the 50-dma although we'd prefer to see a bounce near $48. Picked on May 6th at $46.50 Gain since picked: +2.64 Earnings Date 02/20/02 (confirmed) --- Dana Corp. - DCN - close: 20.85 change: -0.85 stop: 20.44 Talk about cutting it close. On Thursday DCN pegged an intraday low of $20.48, just four cents above our stop. Fortunately an afternoon rally in the broader market helped to lift the stock safely above this level. Although we're still in the play, today's 3.9% loss is not encouraging. Volume has been increasing over the past three days of selling. Today's break of the $21.75-$22.00 support level came on the strongest volume in almost two weeks. With the MACD about to produce a bearish crossover, we would be very cautious about entering new positions at this time. A move back over the $22 level would go a long way in restoring our confidence in DCN. Picked on May 17th at $22.26 Change since picked: -1.41 Earnings Date 04/17/02 (confirmed) --- Goodrich Corp - GR - close: 33.31 change: -0.15 stop: 30.97 Resistance at the $34 level proved too much for shares of GR, which lost 15 cents today. GR actually traded under the $33 level for a short time this afternoon before staging an impressive afternoon rally. Although the stock has fallen back to the bottom edge of its ascending channel, the 50-dma at $32.38 should provide support. The DFX.X defense index bounced from its own 50-dma today and looks like it may have put in a near-term bottom. Entries in GR can be evaluated on a bounce from the 50- dma or a move above the relative highs between $34.00 and $34.45. Picked on May 3rd at $31.97 Gain since picked: +1.34 Earnings Date 04/24/02 (confirmed) --- Transocean Inc. - RIG - close: 37.45 change: -0.75 stop: 36.84 The recent downtrend in the price of oil seems to be keeping a lid on oil stocks. Crude futures (cl02n) dropped to a six-week low today, while the OSX.X oil service gave back 1.7%. RIG followed suit with a decline of nearly 2%. Shares tested the $37 level but seemed to find bidders after the oil market closed shortly after 2:00PM. With the daily stochastics (5,3,3) heading lower, we'd prefer to make RIG prove itself by trading over the Wednesday high of $38.41 before considering new positions. More conservative traders might want to wait for a close over $39.30 or even the $40 level. Picked on May 23rd at $39.26 Gain since picked: -1.81 Earnings Date: 04/30/02 (confirmed) --- Republic Services - RSG - cls: 21.12 chg: +0.08 stop: 19.87 This long play was activated yesterday after RSG hit our trigger at $21.26. The stock hit a 52-week high after receiving an upgrade from JPM. Shares have been rangebound in the past two sessions, trading between $20.95 and $21.41. The way RSG has consolidated last week's gains while remaining above the $21 level bodes well for the bulls. Some traders might want to wait for shares to get back above the $21.40 level or even $21.50 but we wouldn't mind a bounce here at $21.00. Picked on May 30th at $21.26 Gain since picked: -0.14 Earnings Date 04/29/02 (confirmed) --- Tenet Healthcare - THC - close: 74.20 change: +1.22 stop: 69.33 The healthcare sector continues to display impressive relative strength versus the broader market. The HMO.X health provider index turned in a 1.6% gain today and shot through resistance at 620. The index hasn't traded this high since early May. THC mirrored the sector with a 1.6% gain of its own, although trading was somewhat flat until the final two hours of trading. It looks like the stock is picking up a head of steam that could carry it over the all-time high at $75.45. Volume has been picking up over the past two sessions (both positive days), daily stochastics are rocketing higher, and a bullish MACD crossover looks imminent. Entries can be evaluated at current levels, although conservative players may want to wait for THC to either move over its all-time high or pull back to the $72 level. Picked on May 29th at $72.98 Change since picked: +1.22 Earnings Date 04/02/02 (confirmed) --- Dentsply Intl. - XRAY - cls: 40.26 chg: +0.78 stop: 37.95 You know that agonizing combination of dread and anticipation that you feel when the dentist's drill starts buzzing just inches from your teeth? That must be how XRAY bears feel right now. The stock gained nearly 2% today on strong volume of 533K versus the 318K average and finished over the $40 level. That's a new all-time closing high. The near-term high at $40.70 and all-time high at $40.95 are looking very vulnerable, especially considering the fact that the MACD has just produced a bullish crossover. Entries can be evaluated at current levels, although cautious traders (or those with a longer-term approach) may want to wait for a close above $41. Picked on May 28th at $40.25 Gain since picked: +0.01 Earnings Date 04/14/02 (confirmed) -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Boeing Company - BA - close: 43.66 change: +0.66 stop: 45.80 After a week long downtrend we had expected the bears to keep the momentum going until shares touched the 200-dma. Unfortunately, it appears that a new order for two planes from Alaska Airlines may have caused some shorts to cover prematurely. We don't really see an order for two planes significantly changing the fundamentals for BA but it is improvement in a beleaguered sector. We would probably step back from any new positions until we see where BA will find new overhead resistance. It could show up near psychological resistance at $45, the 50-dma at $45.50 or $46.00 - at which case we'd be stopped out. Picked on May 21st at $44.35 Gain since picked: +0.69 Earnings Date 07/18/02 (unconfirmed) --- Danaher Corp. - DHR - close: 67.86 change: -1.02 stop: 72.01*new* Bears are gaining momentum in shares of DHR. The messy head-and- shoulders pattern the stock had been working on finally broke with the close below the neckline (today). If you project a target from the broken pattern it would point to a move to the $62 area, which happens to coincide with the 200-dma near $62.50. Short-term traders may want to consider taking profits as the stock approaches potential support at $65 but as indicated in our original write up, we're aiming for the 200-dma. We see more good news for the bears as DHR not only closed below its 100-dma but did so on rising volume. A glance at the PnF chart also shows a new bearish sell signal and a bullish-signal-reversed pattern (not good for long players). The bullish support line on the PnF chart also corresponds closely to the 200-dma on the daily and our target. This could be a good place to consider short-term entries as would any failed rally near $69.00. As we approach the $65.00 level we'll adjust our stop again. Picked on May 13th at $69.03 Gain since picked: +1.17 Earnings Date 04/18/02 (confirmed) --- Sabre Holdings - TSG - cls: 37.63 chg: +0.06 stop: 38.11 *new* The PnF chart may look dire for investors but the daily is starting to bottom out. Shares of TSG have found support near its January lows. While the trend is still bearish we're getting the feeling that a bounce is on the way. Dedicated bears can keep the play open but we would suggest you use a wide stop above the 200-dma or even above $40.00. We're going to try and salvage some of our gains and tighten our stop to just above the 10-dma at $38.11. Picked on May 13th at $39.74 Gain since picked: +2.11 Earnings Date 04/18/02 (confirmed) =============== AT Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bullish Plays -------------------- H&R Block - HRB - cls: 44.91 chg: -1.01 stop: 44.49 HRB's Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of 16 cents/share today, but that news did little to help the stock. Shares gave back 2.1%, falling below both the $45 level and our stop at $44.49. Our long play was closed for a loss of $2.39. Given the bearish MACD and daily stochastics, we would not advise entries at current levels. Aggressive short-term traders could try to capture a bounce from the 50-dma ($43.99). We may give HRB a second look if it bounces from the $42 level, which is bolstered by the 200-dma. Picked on May 17th at $46.88 Gain since picked: -2.39 Earnings Date 06/12/02 (unconfirmed) --- Adolph Coors - RKY - close: 65.78 change: -1.40 stop: 65.98 The beverage sector was bubbling with excitement this morning over the news that MO had agreed to sell Miller Brewing to South African Breweries. The new company, to be called SABMiller, will be second only to BUD in the worldwide brewing market. RKY traded lower on the news as investors speculated that the Coors brand may have a more difficult time competing for market share against the enlarged company. The stock began to sell off around lunchtime and proceeded to violate our stop-loss at $65.98. This closed out our play for a loss of 3.4%. Volume came in at a brisk 1.1M, which is more than double the average. With shares closing under the 50-dma for the first time since February and oscillators looking bearish, we would not be looking to buy this dip. Picked on May 2nd at $68.36 Gain since picked: -2.38 Earnings Date 04/25/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section ================================================================== =============== HR Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Lucent Technologies - LU - close: 4.85 change: +0.01 stop: *text* More and more we're seeing LU's friends and foes in the business get pounded and yet LU's share price continues to build on its pattern of higher lows. Of course we could just be looking too hard with our bullish bias. Lest we forget, this is purely a technical play. We don't see a lot of fundamental reason to buy LU, especially after Nortel's comments yesterday (although NT's comments were focused on the fiber business). As it stands now, our play in LU has yet to be triggered but the slow consolidation under the $5.00 mark might be coiling for a breakout. This is truly an aggressive play and we are fighting the sector downtrend. Look for a move at or above $5.03 to go long and our target is the $6.00 area. Our stop will be $4.49 when triggered. Picked on May xth at $xx.xx <- see text Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/22/02 (confirmed) --- Providian Financial - PVN - cls: 7.87 chg: +0.22 stop: 6.99 A nice run into the close put the ending numbers for PVN with a +2.87% gain. The stock had bounced intraday off its 50-dma on Wednesday when the broader markets sank for their third day in a row. More aggressive traders could use today's bullishness as a potential signal for new entries but be aware that shares have struggled with the $8.00 mark twice in the last few sessions. We want to remind readers that the Newsletter's exit price is officially $8.45 and we'll close the play should PVN trade at or above that level. More conservative types could use Wednesday's low as a new stop but we're going to leave ours just under $7. Picked on May 22nd at $7.66 Gain since picked: +0.21 Earnings Date 05/06/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== Split Trader (ST) section ================================================================== Split Announcements ------------------- Bennett Environmental announces 3-for-2 stock split Bennett Environmental, Inc. (AMEX: BEL) announced this afternoon that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock split. Although no distribution or record dates were given, the company expects the split will be completed before the end of June. Split Trader will relay this information as soon as it becomes available. BEL has not split since it began trading in 1996. Today's announcement comes after a meteoric rise in the stock's price, which has more than tripled in 2002. The stock closed at $18.70 on Thursday. For a current quote, click here: http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=BEL About the company Bennett Environmental Inc. is a North American leader in high temperature treatment services for the remediation of contaminated soil and has provided thermal solutions to contamination problems throughout Canada and the US. Bennett Environmental's proprietary technology provides for the safe, economical and permanent solution to contaminated soil. Independent testing has consistently proven that the technology operates well within the most stringent criteria in North America. (source: company press release) --- Expeditors International declares 2-for-1 stock split In late-breaking news this evening, Expeditors International of Washington (NASDAQ: EXPD) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split. The split will take the form of a 100% stock dividend and will be issued on or about June 24, 2002 to shareholders of record on June 10, 2002. EXPD most recently split in 1999; also a 2-for-1 offering. Shares have gained 4% in 2002. The stock closed at $59.35 on Thursday. For a current quote, click here: http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=EXPD About the company Expeditors is a global logistics company headquartered in Seattle, Wash. The company employs trained professionals in 167 offices and 13 international service centers located on six continents linked into a seamless worldwide network through an integrated information management system. Services include air and ocean freight forwarding, vendor consolidation, customs clearance, marine insurance, distribution and other value added international logistics services. (source: company press release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals -------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change MO Philip Morris Companies 56.58 +0.57 OHP Oxford Health Plans Inc 48.36 +1.78 STZ Constellation Brands Inc 29.00 +0.60 DOL Dole Food Co 32.83 +0.51 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change MEDC Med-Design Corp 16.60 +2.80 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change HCA HCA Inc 50.09 +1.69 COL Rockwell Collins Inc 26.52 +1.52 TRI Triad Hospitals Inc 45.60 +1.10 SFG Stancorp Financial 56.50 +1.81 HOV Hovnanian Enterprises 30.58 +1.13 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change GSK GlaxoSmithKline 42.06 -1.47 DUK Duke Energy Corp 31.78 -1.73 P Phillips Petroleum 57.00 -1.50 BR Burlington Resources Inc 40.27 -1.94 AVY Avery Dennison Corp 64.06 -2.40 TDS Telephone & Data System 74.80 -2.15 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change PTR Petrochina Co Ltd 20.10 -0.28 AHC Amerada Hess Corp 82.07 -0.80 OCAS Ohio Casualty Corp 20.84 -0.96 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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