PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 06-04-2002 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. ! The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/f04b_1.asp ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Bent, But Not Broken Market Sentiment: Fear On The Street: It's Up To The 200-dma Play-of-the-Day: Filling the Gap ----------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Market Numbers ----------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ----------------------------------------------------------------- 06-04-2002 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 9687.84 - 22.00 9739.41 9592.79 1.48 bln 1407/1768 NASDAQ 1578.12 + 15.60 1587.79 1548.31 1.61 bln 1575/1877 S&P 100 516.03 + 1.29 518.94 510.65 Totals 2982/3545 S&P 500 1040.69 + 0.01 1046.06 1030.52 RUS 2000 473.76 - 0.63 475.11 467.11 DJ TRANS 2663.50 - 26.30 2691.43 2638.42 VIX 26.94 + 1.24 27.93 25.94 VXN 49.66 + 2.01 50.12 47.91 TRIN 1.32 PUT/CALL .87 ----------------------------------------------------------------- =========== Market Wrap =========== Bent, but not broken The broader market averages finished the day near "unchanged" levels and for the most part, traders are left looking at a market not that much different than yesterday's close. As I look at things, I'm having some flashbacks to my younger years when dad took me to the demolition derby and we watched a bunch of cars crash into each other until one car was left running. There were times when the "orange car" looked to be sputtering its last breath of octane as blue smoke was pouring out the tailpipe. The "orange car" was my favorite and the one I had cheered for the entire race as I devoured the cone of cotton candy dad had bought me earlier in the evening. As the evening of demolition progressed, my stomach felt much like the orange car looked. Not good. A lot of damage had been done, not only to my internals, but also the exterior of the orange car and it too had some internal engine problems as depicted by the blue billows of smoke. But low and behold, the sputtering orange car came to life, the choppy sound of its once sputtering engine had blue smoke turning to a pale white and the car was able to once again start moving across the dirt covered track in search of another car it could ram. Just like that, there was hope that my favorite car was once again "technically sound" and still able to win the derby. I knew in my heart that one more blow to the front part of the orange car, which housed the now very fragile engine, would certainly spell doom. In essence, the orange car was bent, but not yet broken. As I look at various stocks that comprise the indexes that eventually make up "the market," I see a lot of orange cars that are puffing out some blue smoke. While they're bent, they may not yet be broken as a late session recovery had some stocks firming into the close. The orange car to keep an eye on If there's one stock I think that can perhaps get bulls interested in this market and give bears a "cotton candy stomach ache" its shares of semiconductor giant Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) $27.50 +3.3%. While the stock has sputtered since my bullish profile the morning of May 24th at $28.79 (for 1/2 bullish position, stop $25) bullish comments from Bank of America with about 5-minutes left to go in trading had the stock pegging its session high and helping the once strong Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) fishing as today's biggest sector gainer. Bank of America's bullishness came from a couple of reasons, one that I mentioned in past commentary, which was risk/reward from a bullish trade perspective. While BofA recommended buying the stock based on attractive risk/reward ahead of Thursday's mid- quarter update, the firm also cited some chatter out of a Taiwan trade show that confirmed their comments from last week that motherboard manufacturers were saying business will pick up in the second half of this year. Intel Chart - $1 box The only thing that caught my eye from Bank of America's comments was the "risk reward" trade in Intel (INTC). While BofA didn't outline a stop, I've previously outline any bullish trade in Intel (INTC) with a stop at $25, using the bullish support trend as technical "reason" to select this stock as bullish. While it is a stretch to say that the entire market action will be based on Intel's (INTC) mid-quarter update on Thursday, the point and figure chart of INTC shows the stock is still holding above bullish trend just two days before Thursday's mid-quarter update. In my constant effort to remain "unbiased" toward the market and call it like I see it, I put myself in the place of a bear that actually shorted shares of Intel (INTC) the morning of May 24th at $28.79. While the stock has been "bent" to $27.50, I'm not necessarily seeing a bunch of blue smoke billowing out the tailpipe at $27.50 either. A quick look at the Semiconductor HOLDRS (AMEX:SMH) $37.80 +2.85% shows the sector as a whole had a bullish day today. I've sorted the components by "Net% gain" from today's action, but this is a weighted group of stocks, where Intel (INTC), Applied Materials (AMAT) and Texas Instruments (TXN) carry the bulk of weight. Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) - Sorted by Daily % gain The Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) look almost identical to the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 466.89 +3.43% technically. However, unlike the SOX.X, traders and investors will trade the SMH on an intra-day basis just like they would a stock, but a trade in the SMH spreads an investment (long or short) across 20 different stocks with a semiconductor "theme." While Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ:BRCM) $24.01 +7.91% was the SMH's best performing stock today, this isn't a stock I'm looking for any type of leadership from based on technicals. In this weekend's Barron's, former Cowen analyst Drew Peck recommended shorting shares of BRCM at current levels as he believed the stock would trade lower over the next 12-18 months. Broadcom Corp. Chart - $0.50 & $1 box Today's "out-performance" by Broadcom (BRCM) $24.01 +7.91% does hint that there are some bears still willing to do some short covering. With stock in downward trends like BRCM is, bearish traders aren't necessarily worried about bulls, but only bears that are locking in gains as profits grow. I like to go back and perform multiple bullish and bearish counts on stocks to try and get a perspective of how the stock has traded in relation to past counts, but also look for some commonality from the counts to see how much credence can be placed on them. Earlier this year, BRCM gave a sell signal at $45, which had the resulting column of O's hinting at $32. The stock traded $31, then gave a "buy signal" at $36. Eventually, the MARKET seemingly gathered more information, the stock consolidated, then gave another sell signal at $31 in late April (just before red 5) that built a bearish count of $14. That bearish count was negated as the stock did trade at $29 (a buy signal created by an X column exceeding a previous column of X). However, that bullishness was also short-lived and the stock broke lower again, and once again has the bearish count hinting at $14. As I look at Intel (INTC) and Broadcom (BRCM) I see two different types of semiconductors stocks. Intel is more of a "computer chip" maker, while Broadcom is more of a "telecom equipment chip" maker. As it relates to past analogies of "head" and "tail" I'd place INTC at the "head" and BRCM at the "tail." Today's action is very indicative of short-covering in the group. To really get any bullishness going on a continues basis, INTC needs to get above $32 and that might then help pull BRCM above current resistance of $30. If Intel (INTC) were to say anything disappointing in Thursday's mid-quarter update, I think the stock to be looking short is Broadcom (BRCM). It's a stock that is under greater distribution that Intel (INTC) and most likely a stock the MARKET does not see any type of near-term catalyst for bullishness. Other signs of bending, but not breaking In yesterday's 03:00 EST Update at OptionInvestor.com, I wanted traders to be keeping a close eye on the Wireless Telecom Index (YLS.X) 53.39 -0.81% as it related to a bearish trade in Verizon (NYSE:VZ) $42.35 +0.04% I had profiled on Friday near the $43.39 level. The YLS.X is an index we follow on a weekly basis in our Friday wraps and one of the weaker areas of the market. This is a sector that every trader/investor can at least be monitoring to try and get a feel for how bearish the market is. Again, this isn't a group that "smart" bulls have been focusing on. If they have, then they've been losing money at an alarming rate, even when benchmarked back to the September lows. A bear in this sector isn't concerned about what a BULL is doing, only what a bear is doing in regards to short covering. The level I wanted traders to be keeping an eye on was the $52.83 level. While the YLS.X did trade as low as 52.31, it didn't break that level on a closing basis. In all, this sector is smoking a lot of blue smoke out the tail pipe. The near-term question is "can it come back to life from short-covering, or will it simply go down in flames?" Wireless Telecom Sector Index Chart - Daily Interval While there was some "life" in the semiconductor's the Wireless Index (YLS.X) edged slightly lower. I'm a bit surprised that this group didn't get flushed and break the 52.83 level with some gusto. I think this sector represents a valid observation of how some stocks are hanging on by a thread, but may be a little "sold out" near-term. This sector is rather volatile, and we can see how it isn't a stretch to our imagination that a short-covering rally could see this index jump to the 60 level and upper end of downward regression. The point and figure chart currently has a bearish vertical count hinting at 41.00 and this ties in rather nice with fitted retracement as shown above. However, bears currently holding some stocks in this group short want to see index break this 52.83 level to signal that other bears aren't so willing/eager to cover and lock in gains. While the YLS.X is broken, it wasn't smashed today and bears need to be controlling their trade size and continually managing their account. Tonight's Internals Today's action had the more volatile NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) seeing 4 more stocks generate sell signals on their point and figure charts and now just 26% of the stocks in this market are showing a "buy signal" still associated with their charts. From a level of "risk," the NASDAQ-100 is now at a very similar level of risk as that found on Thursday, March 9th. The broader S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) saw a net loss of 3.6% of stocks (approximately 18 stocks) to sell signals on their point and figure charts, which has this market now reading, "bear confirmed" status. A benchmark here would be the February low reading of 54%. Every bullish percent except the NYSE Composite Bullish % ($BPNYA) is in a more "bearish" stage of internal weakening. The MARKET is truly on what I feel a pivot point as internal weakening continues to have the broader market averages on the brink of some potentially pivotal declines. Market psychology is quite negative. While I didn't discuss today's events regarding Tyco Intl.'s (NYSE:TYC) $16.77 +4.48% ex-CEO being indicted in New York for personal sales-tax evasion, I do believe this is weighing somewhat on any bull that has been contemplating a bullish investment in any stock. While Mr. Kozlowski's current problems are personal, too many investors heard and read Mr. Kozlowski's statements regarding Tyco's (TYC) truthful accounting practices. While there has not been any findings that TYC itself has had any accounting irregularities, investors are continually being fed a plate full of suspicious vittles that is becoming harder and harder to digest as it relates to confidence in some company's leadership. Intel on my mind As I look through the various bullish % charts, there is only one thing in my mind that would create a catalyst for a rally. That "one thing" is Thursday evening Intel (INTC) mid-quarter update. With the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) right back near an "oversold" level, the only thing I see keeping the markets from complete capitulation on the downside is upcoming Intel (INTC) update. Current market conditions are perhaps "exactly" like that found just before Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) $16.08 +4.89 quarterly earnings, which were announced the evening of May 7th, which sparked some short-term life into the NASDAQ-100 and larger cap technology stocks. For "risk averse" traders/investors, I would suggest staying on the sidelines near-term and get let the Intel mid-quarter update pass by. For more active traders, I would try and keep an account weighting that is about 50% short and 50% long as it relates to open positions. Both bullish and bearish trades should be monitored closely and tighter stops would be preferable and should be honored. While the MARKET has basically ignored some of the still bullish economic data, any bullishness from the Intel (INTC) conference call could have similar impact on the NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X) as that found in early May after the CSCO earnings. At that time, it certainly looks like the lower levels from the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % found institutions covering some short positions. Since we're nearing those similar reading, bears need to be cognizant of this risk level and understand the May 8th-15th action. Like I said earlier. The orange car is blowing some blue smoke out the tailpipe, but there is still a sputter in the engine. Expect some volatility into Thursday's close and uncertainty ahead of that call weighs on trader's minds. Jeff Bailey Senior Market Technician ================ Market Sentiment ================ Fear On The Street: It's Up To The 200-dma By Eric Utley The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) is rising, which means fear is doing the same. That trend is even more evident in the Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN.X). Both fear measures finished higher Tuesday, despite a rebound in the Nasdaq-100 (NDX.X). The close higher in the VXN.X may reveal that there's staying power to the short covering rally that we witnessed in the NDX names near the close of the day's trading. The ebb and flow of market psychology is amazing, especially near key turning points no matter the time frame. The spike higher in the VIX Tuesday and close above its 200-dma reveals to me that we're close to a short-term turning point for the S&P 100 (OEX.X) names. I think we're even closer in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX.X) issues due to the relatively increased oversold nature of that index. The spike further into extreme readings in the ARMS Index (INDEX:TRIN) helps to reinforce that view. The very short term 5-day reading closed at 1.71, while the 10-day moved within striking distance of extreme oversold readings. The last time we had both the 5 and 10-day ARMS readings in extreme oversold the market staged a pretty good two day rally. The 1.50 level is something to watch for in the 10-day number tomorrow. The difference between the S&P and NDX names is even more compelling in recent developments in bullish percent data. The S&P 500 Bullish Percent ($BPSPX) reversed into bear confirmed Tuesday at 54 percent. While the Nasdaq-100 Bullish Percent ($BPNDX) fell lower to finish at 26 percent, but in bull correction mode. Using this indicator alone, the plan of attack is relatively simple. Look for weak S&P names near resistance because that market holds more downside risk and is in bear confirmed mode. And look for strong NDX names near support for bullish plays, because the downside risk in that group is quite a bit lower than any other market. The bears know that, and will be more inclined to cover their tech shorts. All the tech bulls need is a catalyst. Maybe that will come from Intel? ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 11350 52-week Low : 8062 Current : 9688 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 9972 50-dma: 10125 200-dma: 9882 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1316 52-week Low : 945 Current : 1041 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1070 50-dma: 1097 200-dma: 1114 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 2071 52-week Low : 1089 Current : 1178 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1230 50-dma: 1308 200-dma: 1438 Semiconductor ($SOX) The SOX was the best performing sector on the day with its 3.43 percent rally. The gain was fed by short covering ahead of Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) mid quarter update. Sector leaders included Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM), NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Linear Technology (NASDAQ:LLTC), and Xilinx (NASDAQ:XLNX). 52-week High: 697 52-week Low : 344 Current : 467 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 481 50-dma: 537 200-dma: 526 Defense ($DFX) Here's a new one, the DFX was the worst performing sector on my watch list Tuesday with its 1.73 percent drop. Leading the way to the downside included Alliant Tech Systems (NYSE:ATK), L 3 Communications (NYSE:LLL), Titan (NYSE:TTN), and FLIR Systems (NASDAQ:FLIR). 52-week High: 210 52-week Low : 155 Current : 193 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 199 50-dma: 199 200-dma: N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Volatility The VIX finally broke and closed above its 200-dma. That level is now below at 26.19. The rally is finally showing some real signs of fear, which could eventually lead to a washout event, and from there a rally of duration. The VXN is testing its 200-dma. A breakout here would confirm what we see in the S&P names. I like the way that the VXN closed higher Tuesday along with the NDX. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 26.97 +1.27 Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN) - 48.76 +1.11 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.73 365,435 266,163 Equity Only 0.55 306,482 169,056 OEX 1.01 15,482 15,750 QQQ 0.40 27,820 11,267 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 58 - 2 Bull Confirmed NASDAQ-100 26 - 4 Bull Correction DOW 53 - 3 Bear Correction S&P 500 54 - 4 Bear Confirmed S&P 100 53 - 2 Bear Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-Day Arms Index 1.71 10-Day Arms Index 1.47 21-Day Arms Index 1.33 55-Day Arms Index 1.33 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when the do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals Advancers Decliners NYSE 1416 1784 NASDAQ 1580 1865 New Highs New Lows NYSE 69 89 NASDAQ 52 205 Volume (in millions) NYSE 1,481 NASDAQ 1,880 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 05/28/02 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercials grew more bearish last week by adding about 5,000 contracts to their net bearish position. They did so by adding more shorts than longs. Listen up! Small traders reached their most bullish position in over a year by adding a big number of long positions to total more than 114,000 net long contracts. The spread here between commercials and small traders has widen considerably over the last two weeks! Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 05/14/02 343,941 424,893 (80,952) (12.1%) 05/21/02 354,039 429,803 (75,764) (9.7%) 05/28/02 362,607 442,845 (80,238) (9.9%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01 Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 05/07/02 154,664 59,583 95,081 44.4% 05/14/02 163,035 58,587 104,448 49.8% 05/21/02 172,313 57,803 114,510 49.8% Most bearish reading of the year: 36,513 - 5/01/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 NASDAQ-100 Nasdaq commercials grew less bullish last week by reducing their longs more than their shorts. Small traders went in the opposite direction by growing less bearish, reducing their net position by about 3,000 contracts. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 05/14/02 40,858 35,761 5,097 (5.5%) 05/21/02 51,448 45,375 6,073 (6.3%) 05/28/02 49,669 44,900 4,769 (5.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 7,774 - 12/21/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 05/14/02 11,920 17,479 (5,559) 8.2% 05/21/02 12,567 19,899 (7,332) 22.6% 05/28/02 12,562 16,969 (4,407) 14.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (9,877) - 12/21/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,460 - 3/13/01 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Dow commercials were flat on a week over week basis. Their net position lost less than 100 contracts. Small traders grew less bearish, though, by adding a number of long positions. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 05/14/02 21,080 14,725 6,355 14.4% 05/21/02 20,173 15,317 4,856 13.7% 05/28/02 20,289 15,513 4,776 13.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 05/14/02 4,930 10,899 (5,969) (25.2%) 05/21/02 3,661 9,585 (5,924) (44.7%) 05/28/02 5,709 9,180 (3,471) (23.3%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,777) - 10/12/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------- =============== PLAY-of-the-Day ((new BEARISH play)) =============== Biosite, Inc. - BSTE - close: 26.82 change: -1.18 stop: *text* Company Description: A leader in the drive to advance diagnosis, Biosite Incorporated is a research-based company dedicated to the discovery and development of novel protein-based diagnostic tests that improve a physician's ability to diagnose debilitating and life- threatening diseases. The Company combines integrated discovery and diagnostics businesses to access proteomics research, identify proteins with high diagnostic utility, develop and commercialize products and educate the medical community on new diagnostic approaches that improve health care outcomes. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: This is purely a technical play...and the technicals are looking very weak. BSTE gapped sharply higher on April 23rd after beating Q1 earnings estimates. Shares proceeded to trace a sloppy head-and-shoulders formation, with the right shoulder being formed by the recent selloff from the $32 level. With today's 4.2% loss, BSTE has begun to fill in the April gap. There are several reasons that lead us to believe that shares will eventually reach the bottom of this gap near $23.00. First and foremost, volume has been increasing over the past few days. Today's reading was the largest in two weeks, which indicates that BSTE is building downside momentum. The point-and-figure chart is bearish as well; today's decline created a triple-bottom sell signal. Finally, the MACD and daily stochastics (5,3,3) are both downtrending, portending further selling in the near-term. And let's not forget about that head-and-shoulders from which BSTE recently broke down! As far as entries go, we're going to place a trigger at $26.29, just below today's low. This will also ensure that we don't get short until BSTE is trading below the March highs. If we're triggered our initial stop will be placed above the 50-dma, at $27.82. Traders willing to accept more risk may want to have their stops just above today's high of $28.85. If this play goes as planned, we'll institute a profit- target as shares approach the $23 level. Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/22/02 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 06-04-2002 section 2 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/f04b_2.asp ================================================================= In section two: Net Bulls Bearish Play Updates: AT, BRCD, CLS, CMCSK, NET, TBH Stock Bottom / Active Trader New Bearish Plays: BSTE, FBN Bullish Play Updates: DCX, RJR, THC Bearish Play Updates: BA, DHR Closed Bullish Plays: ATK, AZO, CR, DCN, GR, RSG, XRAY High Risk/Reward Bullish Play Updates: PVN Bearish Play UPdates: WMB Long-term Plays Closed Bullish Plays: ONE Split Trader Stock Splits FPU: 4-for-3 split announcement Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Alltel Corp - AT - close: 51.58 change: +1.55 stop: 52.26 Tuesday was an extremely volatile day in the broad market, and this volatility worked against us in some cases, like Alltel. Although AT was triggered today when the market dropped shortly after the open, the subsequent rebound put us in the negative column by day's end. Our short position entry point of $49.94 was triggered but then the stock, and much of the market, rebounded. AT stalled just below its 50-dma, in an area of resistance, and we think this should be sufficient to cause the stock to turn back down in the next day or two. Our stop is just above the 50-dma--and the stock's May 24th high--at $52.26. Aggressive traders may wish to short AT if it stalls at the 50- dma ($51.80) and turns down. Picked on June 4th at $49.94 Change since picked: -1.64 Earnings Date 04/25/02 (confirmed) --- Brocade - BRCD - close: 19.99 change: +1.72 stop: 20.26 Brocade Communications said today that it still expects to meet its financial targets for the third and fourth quarters of 2002, effectively reaffirming guidance for analysts. This positive news, combined with a turnaround in the broader Nasdaq, gave BRCD the steam it needed to move up nicely on the day. Brocade moved opposite its sector index, the NWX (Networking Index), which declined about 2% on the day. We would not initiate new short positions in BRCD until it has moved back below our entry point of $19.35. Picked on May 22nd at $19.35 Gain since picked: -0.64 Earnings Date 04/15/02 (confirmed) --- Celestica - CLS - close: 27.12 change: -1.00 stop: 29.69 *new* Flextronics dropped 18 percent today after the electronics contract manufacturer (ECM) warned Monday evening that it would not meet financial expectations for the current quarter. In the wake of this announcement, other ECM's, like Celestica (CLS), were roughed up in Tuesday's trading. CLS did enjoy a rebound off Tuesday's intraday low of $26.38 but the company still finished the day with a 3% loss--to the delight of our short position. We expect that CLS might attempt to rebound a bit further in the next day or two; however, our present perspective is that CLS's declining Bollinger Band ma (5-dma, 1.7 sd), sitting at $28.79--as well as Flextronics disappointing guidance- -should restrain any such rebound. Over the next week or two, we think that CLS can decline to either its 127% or 161.8% Fibonacci retracement (of its May 7-May 17 advance); these levels are $23.45 and $20.82 respectively. Please note, too, that we have lowered our buy stop in order to better protect the profit we currently have in this stock. Picked on May 21st at $30.94 Gain since picked: +3.84 Earnings Date 04/17/02 (confirmed) --- Comcast Corp - CMCSK - cls: 26.50 chg: -0.95 stop: 28.81 *new* Our price target for this short position remains at the $24 level. Remember that there is a bit of support just a few percent below today's close, at $26.00, and this level could be a point at which the stock will attempt to make a brief rebound. CMCSK declined today on strong volume and this lends good support to our notion that lower prices are likely in the coming week. We have lowered our buy stop to $28.81, which is just above an area of price congestion/resistance, as well as very close to our declining upper Bollinger Band (5-dma, 1.7 sd). We have found that when our Bollinger Bands are in a clear decline, it is very difficult for stocks to rebound above the upper band until they have consolidated sideways for several days. CMCSK has done no such consolidation at this time. Picked on June 3rd at 27.89 Gain since picked: +1.39 Earnings Date 05/01/02 (confirmed) --- Network Associates - NET - close: 18.94 change: +0.62 stop: 22.01 The Software sector (GSO.X) turned in a 3% bounce today and Network Associates was able to sidestep the broader-market weakness and trade higher with the sector (NET gained 3%). We are optimistic that the GSO.X will weaken further in coming days, as if failed to close above the 120 level. Intraday, NET traded down to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (of its May 7th-May 20th advance) before embarking on a sharp reversal. This is a logical point for such a rebound, and we should expect NET to move up modestly in coming days before it attempts to move lower--again. It will be important for the stock to stall near our upper Bollinger Band and/or declining 50-dma, which are currently converging at the $21.00 level. However, we'd be very surprised if NET reclaims the $20 level (now psychological and price resistance) and we'd use it as an early warning device for conservative traders. We will leave our stop at its current location. Aggressive traders may wish to enter new long positions on a failed rally in the $20.00 to $21.00 region. Less aggressive traders may simply wait and see if NET breaks below today's low of $18.11 before entering new short positions. Picked on May 31st at $19.35 Gain since picked: +0.41 Earnings Date 04/11/02 (confirmed) --- Telecom Brasil - TBH - close: 27.41 change: -0.85 stop: 28.68 *new* Since May 14th, TBH has been building a rising triangular consolidation (higher lows and lower/flat highs) at the bottom of its April 18th-May 13th decline. While these patterns look ostensibly positive to the human eye because daily lows are rising, they are technically just the opposite: these patterns most frequently break down, and as such are decidedly negative once prices have squirted out of the triangle. Such a breakdown occurred in TBH today, and this suggests to us that prices are headed lower, quickly, in coming days. New short positions can be added either 1) below today's low of $27.30, or 2) on a rebound which fails near the break down point of $28.15. Our new stop has been placed just inside of the triangle, at $28.68. We have selected this level for this reason: on those infrequent occasions when prices move back into the triangle, this signals that a powerful reversal in price is about to occur. We do not wish to be short this stock in such a situation. Our current target for this short position is either $26.00 and, perhaps, even $25.00. Picked on May 22nd at $27.70 Gain since picked: +0.29 Earnings Date N/A ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== ============= AT New Plays ============= ----------------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- Biosite, Inc. - BSTE - close: 26.82 change: -1.18 stop: *text* Company Description: A leader in the drive to advance diagnosis, Biosite Incorporated is a research-based company dedicated to the discovery and development of novel protein-based diagnostic tests that improve a physician's ability to diagnose debilitating and life- threatening diseases. The Company combines integrated discovery and diagnostics businesses to access proteomics research, identify proteins with high diagnostic utility, develop and commercialize products and educate the medical community on new diagnostic approaches that improve health care outcomes. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: This is purely a technical play...and the technicals are looking very weak. BSTE gapped sharply higher on April 23rd after beating Q1 earnings estimates. Shares proceeded to trace a sloppy head-and-shoulders formation, with the right shoulder being formed by the recent selloff from the $32 level. With today's 4.2% loss, BSTE has begun to fill in the April gap. There are several reasons that lead us to believe that shares will eventually reach the bottom of this gap near $23.00. First and foremost, volume has been increasing over the past few days. Today's reading was the largest in two weeks, which indicates that BSTE is building downside momentum. The point-and-figure chart is bearish as well; today's decline created a triple-bottom sell signal. Finally, the MACD and daily stochastics (5,3,3) are both downtrending, portending further selling in the near-term. And let's not forget about that head-and-shoulders from which BSTE recently broke down! As far as entries go, we're going to place a trigger at $26.29, just below today's low. This will also ensure that we don't get short until BSTE is trading below the March highs. If we're triggered our initial stop will be placed above the 50-dma, at $27.82. Traders willing to accept more risk may want to have their stops just above today's high of $28.85. If this play goes as planned, we'll institute a profit- target as shares approach the $23 level. Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/22/02 --- Furniture Brands Int. - FBN - cls: 35.24 chg: -1.41 stop: *text* Company Description: FBN is a major manufacturer of residential furniture in the United States. The company markets its furniture through four brands/subsidiaries: Broyhill Furniture, Lane Furniture, Thomasville Furniture and HDM Furniture. Why We Like It: Furniture Bands has enjoyed a great run in its stock price since hitting a low during the trading week of the tragic September 11th, 2001 New York terrorist attack. After hitting a September low of $17.65, FBN embarked on a sharp advance which took it to a 52 week high of $42.74 on May 3rd. Since May 3, though, FBN has been consolidating. It is our belief that this is more than simply a short consolidation. We believe that FBN--in fact, the entire home building and construction complex--is now undergoing a fairly serious consolidation that is likely to last a couple of months. On its weekly price chart, both FBN and the Dow Jones US Housing & Construction Index have formed distinctive double tops, with bearish divergences on their weekly RSI's. This particular pattern in most cases will lead to a very substantial consolidation. Our view is that the present consolidation on which FBN started on May 3rd will take it down to at least $26.84, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (of its Sept. 2001 - May 2002 advance) over the next several weeks to couple of months. With this in mind, we are interested in shorting FBN only on a rebound back to resistance in the $37.50 region. This is a bit below FBN's flat 50-dma, but resistance appears hefty enough at $37.50 to keep FBN from rising all the way to the 50-dma. We are currently expecting FBN to reach this resistance region within the next week. Once our short play has been triggered, we'll use an initial buy stop of $40.03, which is slightly above our declining weekly Bollinger Band moving average (5-wma, 1.7 sd). Experience has taught us that a declining weekly ma of this variety can serve as very solid resistance, which is not easily overcome. June xth at $xx.xx <- see text Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/24/02 (confirmed) =============== AT Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- DaimlerChrysler - DCX - cls: 47.10 chg: -1.40 stop: 46.72 *new* In the most recent update for DCX we mentioned that a bounce from the 50-dma might provide a buying opportunity. That level was tested today after shares dropped by 2.8%. Pressuring the stock was yesterday's release of May auto sales data, which showed a 5% decline. Most analysts had expected a small increase. The pullback was in-line with similar declines in shares of F and GM. After heading lower in morning trading, DCX bounced from just below its 50-dma ($46.87) and closed well above the lows for the day. So is a buyable dip? The answer likely depends on whether the broader market rebounds tomorrow. Aggressive traders can target entries at current levels with a relatively small amount of risk. This is due to the fact that we've tightened our stop to $46.72, a penny under today's low. Those willing to take a bit more heat could use a stop just under our original entry point at $46.50. Picked on May 6th at $46.50 Gain since picked: +0.60 Earnings Date 02/20/02 (confirmed) --- RJ Reynolds - RJR - close: 70.50 change: +0.27 stop: 67.94 Running contrary to the wildly gyrating Dow Jones, RJR held firm today and finished with a small gain. As a tobacco stock, its "defensive" nature makes it more attractive during periods of high volatility. Overall the day was non-eventful, with shares trading in a narrow 45-cent range. Traders looking for new entries can continue to watch for a close over $72 or a bounce from the $70 level. Picked on May 30th at $70.34 Change since picked: +0.16 Earnings Date 04/18/02 (confirmed) --- Tenet Healthcare - THC - close: 71.51 change: -2.50 stop: 69.33 Shares of THC suffered a 3.3% loss today, ending a pattern of relative strength versus the broader market. Helping to drag the stock lower was a 1.6% decline in the HMO.X health provider index, which sold off for the third straight session. The next few sessions could be pivotal for the HMO. A bounce from support at 600 could lead to a test of the near-term high at 628, while a breakdown would open the door for a test of the May low of 584. With THC hovering above the 50-dma ($71.25), shares could be well-positioned for a sector rebound. Traders could target entries at current levels with a stop just under the 50-dma. Picked on May 29th at $72.98 Change since picked: -1.47 Earnings Date 04/02/02 (confirmed) -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Boeing Company - BA - cls: 41.85 chg: -0.01 stop: 43.55 *new* Boeing said today that Turkey had signed a $1 billion contract for a small fleet of airplanes equipped with advanced radar and communications platforms for its military. Normally, such an announcement might help push a stock considerably higher. But overall weakness in big cap stocks, and the market in general, pushed the aerospace corporation fractionally lower. In order to protect our profits in this short position we have lowered our buy stop to $43.55, a level just above an area of price congestion/resistance, and BA's declining Bollinger Band moving average (5-dma, 1.7 sd). New short positions in BA might be added on a failure of the stock to rebound in coming days above a lower resistance level at $42.65 or a close under the 200-dma and/or the $40 price level. Short-term traders might want to consider taking profits now while we still target the $37.00 area dictated in our original write up. Picked on May 21st at $44.35 Gain since picked: +2.50 Earnings Date 07/18/02 (unconfirmed) --- Danaher Corp. - DHR - cls: 68.37 chg: -0.07 stop: 71.65 *new* DHR is on the verge of breaking lower, we believe. Bearish positions can still be considered on a move below $69.03; or, more aggressive traders might want to short DHR on a rebound up to $70.00, an area of resistance. As we noted a few days ago, once DHR is below its recent support of $68.79, we believe that a sharper decline in the stock is likely. We've elected to move our buy stop down to $71.65, which is just above the 50-dma. Picked on May 13th at $69.03 Gain since picked: +0.66 Earnings Date 04/18/02 (confirmed) =============== AT Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bullish Plays -------------------- Alliant Tech Systems - ATK - cls: 99.26 chg: -5.94 stop: 99.33 Although the nuclear saber-rattling between India and Pakistan has had a negative impact on the broader market, defense stocks held up relatively well. Perhaps this was due to the potential increase in military spending that would be spawned by growing instability on the Indian subcontinent. In any case, the sector is singing a distinctly different tune this week. The DFX.X defense index fell below its 50-dma on Monday and continued lower today with a 1.7% decline. Meanwhile, bears pummeled ATK to the tune of 5.6%. Shares moved below our stop-loss at $99.33, closing out this play for a loss of $5.52, or 5.2%. The original premise of this play was to take advantage of a bounce from the bottom of ATK's ascending channel. With shares breaking well below that channel and closing under the $100 level, we would not be looking to buy this dip. With the close under $100 we wouldn't be surprised to see ATK test its 200-dma near $90. Picked on May 24th at $104.85 Change since picked: -5.52 Earnings Date 05/09/02 (confirmed) --- Autozone - AZO - close: 78.86 change: -2.15 stop: 78.94 The entire auto sector traded with a negative bias today following weak May auto sales from F and GM. GM raised their Q2 and full-year guidance last night, but investors seemed to selectively ignore that piece of news. Even though AZO is a specialty retailer focused on auto-parts and service the auto- manufacturing-sector weakness was sufficient to bring AZO below the $80 level. Shortly before noon, shares violated our stop at $78.94. This closed AZO for a net loss of 4.3%. Given the bearish curl to the MACD and daily stochastics, we would not be looking to go long at this time. A bounce from the rising 50-dma at $74.27 might renew our interest. Picked on May 30th at $82.56 Gain since picked: -3.62 Earnings Date 05/21/02 (confirmed) --- Crane Corporation - CR - cls: 27.06 chg: +0.02 stop: 26.94 CR kicked off the week on the wrong foot after shares sold off from the 50-dma. The stock briefly found support at $27, but that level was briefly abandoned today as the Dow Jones continued its decline. Although shares finished with a small gain, this play was closed out at the opening trade of $26.94, which happened to be our stop-loss. Looking at the daily chart, we see possible support at $26.50. Additionally, the daily stochastics (5,3,3) are pinned at oversold, which indicates that CR may due for near-term bounce. Aggressive traders could attempt to buy this dip with a stop just under $26.50. Picked on May 17th at $28.22 Gain since picked -1.28 Earnings Date 04/18/02 (confirmed) --- Dana Corp. - DCN - close: 18.96 change: -1.60 stop: 20.44 Investors hit the brakes on the auto sector today after May auto sales came in weaker than expected. Auto-parts stocks really took it on the chin, with BWA, VC, and DPH all posting substantial declines. DCN broke under the $20 level and skidded to a loss of 7.7% on the day. Although our stop-loss at $20.44 took us out of the play before the selling accelerated, we were nonetheless stopped out for a loss of 8.1%. Today's decline could prove to be a bear trap (there's some historical support at $18.50), but the bearish MACD crossover indicates that more selling may be in the cards. We would not recommend taking bullish positions at this time. Picked on May 17th at $22.26 Change since picked: -1.82 Earnings Date 04/17/02 (confirmed) --- Goodrich Corp - GR - close: 29.63 change: -1.75 stop: 30.97 Thus far it's been a rough week for defense-related stocks. The DFX.X defense index fell below its 50-dma (199.04) yesterday and continued lower today with a 1.7% decline. That's not an earth- shaking move, but it's nonetheless a bearish technical development for the sector. GR, however, was hammered for a 5.5% loss. The selling came on high volume (the highest since December!) and no discernable news. Our play was stopped out for a loss of 3.1% after the stock dropped below $30.98. We're glad to have been stopped out fairly early in the sell-off, and have no desire to be long after today's action. GR has broken far below its ascending channel, the oscillators are downtrending, and a test of the 200-dma at $27.68 looks likely. Picked on May 3rd at $31.97 Gain since picked: -1.00 Earnings Date 04/24/02 (confirmed) --- Republic Services - RSG - cls: 20.54 chg: -0.49 stop: 19.87 RSG gapped lower this morning after UBS Warburg downgraded the stock on valuation concerns. Although shares finished safely above $20.00, an intraday violation of that level led to our stop at $19.87 being hit. Our play was closed out for a loss of 6.5%. The successful test of the 50-dma ($19.69) is a positive technical development, but we think this is outweighed by the bearish daily stochastics (5,3,3) and rolling bollinger bands. We'd give RSG another look if it bounced from the 200-dma at $18.53. Picked on May 30th at $21.26 Gain since picked: -1.39 Earnings Date 04/29/02 (confirmed) --- Dentsply Intl. - XRAY - cls: 38.25 chg: -0.93 stop: 37.95 This play started off in promising fashion, with XRAY moving above the $40 level and threatening the all-time highs near $41. Unfortunately shares slipped lower this week, unable to counter the downtrend in the broader market. XRAY dropped 2.3%, falling below the 50-dma for the first time since March. Shares briefly dipped under the $38 level in the final half hour of trading and took out our stop at $37.95. At this point our play was closed for a loss of 5.7%. Although a relief rally in the Dow Jones could power XRAY back above the 50-dma, the downtrending oscillators suggest a retest of the May low of $37.30. Bullish entries are not advised at current levels. Picked on May 28th at $40.25 Gain since picked: -2.30 Earnings Date 04/14/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section ================================================================== =============== HR Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Providian Financial - PVN - cls: 7.55 chg: -0.26 stop: 6.99 PVN has continued to struggle its way higher since May 6th, using its rising 50-dma as support. We've noted on a few occasions during this move that the $8.00 region continues to be bothersome resistance for PVN. We are going to leave our stop at $6.99; however, the 50-dma sits at $7.47 and trigger-happy traders who possess a low tolerance for losing positions might wish to use a sell stop near the 50-dma in case broader market weakness smacks stocks in the next few days. Aggressive traders could use the bounce at the 50-dma again as a potential entry point but with the broader markets sinking we'd be very hesitant to consider new long plays on anything right now. Picked on May 22nd at $7.66 Gain since picked: -0.11 Earnings Date 05/06/02 (confirmed) -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Williams Co. - WMB - close: 11.21 change: +0.26 stop: 13.31 After being accused yesterday of attempting to manipulate gas prices during last year's California energy crisis, Williams saw its EPS estimates cut this morning by UBS Warburg for both 2002 and 2003. Additionally, USB Warburg's energy analyst dropped his target price on WMB from $23 to $17. Even with the reduction in EPS estimates, WMB tried to struggle higher on Tuesday, mostly on the momentum of its terse public response to yesterday's gas- gauging claims, saying that its energy trading practices are both legal and fair. Traders can expect that WMB may be volatile in coming days as the market attempts to separate fact from fiction with respect to the California controversy. We would not encourage new positions at this time as shares of WMB are relatively close ($1.00) to our exit price of $10.26. However, if you are an aggressive trader, you could look for a move under Monday's low as a potential trigger in an attempt to capture any more towards $10.00. If WMB moves at or under $10.26 we'll close the play even though shares could go much lower. A close under $10 and we'll consider taking another shot at WMB. Picked on June 3rd at 13.25 Gain since picked: +2.04 Earnings Date 4/25/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== LONG-TERM PLAYS (LT) section ================================================================== =============== LT Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bullish Plays -------------------- Bank One Corp. - ONE - cls: 30.40 chg: -0.18 stop: *text* When we selected Bank One two weeks ago, we felt that the stock had finished a several-week consolidation and was ready to begin a move upward. But our entry point of $42.88 was never hit, and ONE has continued to move considerably farther away from our trigger point. Rather than take up space on our potential play list with this stock, we have chosen to remove it from our play list at this time. Picked on May xxth at $xx.xx <-see text Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 04/16/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== Split Trader (ST) section ================================================================== Split Announcements ------------------- Florida Public sets 4-for-3 stock split, boosts dividend Prior to the closing bell today, Florida Public Utilities Company (AMEX: FPU) announced that its Board of Directors had declared a 4-for-3 stock split. The split will be distributed on July 1, 2002 to stockholders of record on June 14, 2002. The Board also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.1425 per share and a dividend of $1.1875 per share on the 4-3/4% cumulative preferred stock. The dividends will be payable on July 1, 2002 to shareholders of record on June 14, 2002. FPU last split in 1998, and trades on a low average volume of 2400 shares. The stock closed at $18.85 on Tuesday. For a current quote, click here: http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=FPU About the company Florida Public Utilities Company provides energy and water services to communities in growing markets throughout Florida. The company's distribution systems provide natural and propane gas service in three areas in central and southern Florida, electric service in two areas in northern Florida, and water service in one location in northern Florida. (source: company website) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change KRC Kilroy Realty Corp 27.61 +0.75 UCFC United Community Financial 9.07 +0.62 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change .. none .. --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change ATVI Activision Inc 34.61 +2.33 BTH Blyth Inc 28.85 +1.13 EMBX Embrex Inc 25.30 +1.72 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change TM Toyota Motor Corp 52.35 -2.28 TOT Total Fina Elf SA 75.07 -1.59 AVE Aventis 65.95 -2.80 GM General Motors Corp 59.45 -1.80 CAH Cardinal Health Inc 63.65 -1.30 OMC Omnicom Group Inc 82.00 -1.41 NKE Nike Inc 50.39 -1.67 SYK Stryker Corp 51.50 -1.20 HSY Hershey Foods Corp 64.40 -1.38 JCI Johnson Controls Inc 82.64 -3.85 KG King Pharmaceuticals 25.07 -1.23 INFY Infosys Technologies 53.65 -2.46 NBR Nabors Industries Inc 40.00 -1.48 WHR Whirlpool Corp 68.35 -1.80 LLL L-3 Communications 56.78 -3.10 MHK Mohawk Industries 62.72 -1.40 GR Goodrich Corp 29.63 -1.75 DHI D.R.Horton Inc 22.37 -1.48 AC Alliance Cap Mgmt 36.09 -1.27 COH Coach Inc 47.86 -2.28 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change HIT Hitachi Ltd 73.00 -2.17 BF BASF Ag ADS 43.91 -1.61 HCA HCA Inc 48.00 -0.62 BOL Bausch & Lomb Inc 35.29 -1.81 COKE Coca Cola Bottling 47.87 -1.0 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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