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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 06/06/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Thursday 06-06-2002
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Intel Updates At Low End Of Forecast
Play-of-the-Day:  Give It To Me Straight, DOC
Market Sentiment: Oh, Intel

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Intel updates at low end of forecast

A lower trading session on Wall Street found stocks lower in 
after-hours trading after the worlds largest semiconductor maker 
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) $27.00 -4.18% said it saw Q2 revenues coming 
in between $6.2 and $6.5 billion, which was below the current 
consensus among analysts of $6.7 billion, blaming the softer than 
expected demand in Europe.  Intel (INTC) said Q2 gross margin 
percentage (often associated with pricing pressures) is expected 
to be approximately 49%, plus or minus a couple of points, 
compared to the previous range of 53%, primarily due to the lower 
than expected revenue and product mix.

Using the mid-points of Intel's (INTC) guidance for revenue and 
gross margins, Q2 earnings would be closer to $0.11 a share, 
which would be below current consensus of $0.15 a share.

Intel (INTC) said it still expects a seasonally stronger second 
half, but that didn't seem to appeal to many traders in after-
hours trading.

Trading was rather "wild" as after-hours trading found Intel 
(INTC) trading as low as $24 and as high as $27.  As I write 
(06:00 PM EST) shares of INTC are trading $24.24, down 10% from 
today's regular session close.

As always, it is difficult to say how the stock will open 
tomorrow morning, but it does look lower.  In tonight's market 
monitor at OptionInvestor.com, I did note the sudden "spike" to 
the $27 level in after-hours.  I'm not sure what took place then.  
I did review the trades and all time stamps were at that current 
level and were not "tagged" with any type of "out of order" trade 
designation that would have indicated those trades around the $27 
level were from normal market hours.

Similar action was seen in semiconductor equipment maker Applied 
Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) $20.92 -6.39% in after hours trading.  
Here too the stock got hit to the downside at $19.40 in after-
hours trading, but then spiked to the $21 level just as Intel 
(INTC) traded $27.  As I write (06:08 PM EST) shares of AMAT are 
trading $19.40, down 7.26% from today's regular session close. 

It was interesting, to look at the trades which took place at the 
higher levels in both AMAT and INTC.  Several trades of greater 
than 25,000 shares were at the higher levels, while the smaller 
100 and 1000 share traders were at the lower end of the ranges 
mentioned.

What this has me "speculating" is that the institutional investor 
is perhaps covering short positions on the bad news, or willing 
to pay a higher price for needed liquidity.  For instance, an 
institutional short in AMAT calls his/her market maker and says 
"buy in 50K net $21" (meaning, buy me 50,000 shares and I'm only 
willing to pay $21) and the market maker places a bid at $20 and 
takes stock from retail traders (you and I) at $20 (or already 
has some long inventory he/she can sell to the client at $21) 
puts together a block of 50K shares and prints the 50K at $21.

The "logic" behind my thinking the higher prints were buy-side 
(either short covering or bullish investor seeking exposure) is 
that if I were a market maker and a client called me looking to 
sell 50K shares at $21, I'd tell him/her to go fly a kite as AMAT 
is trading $19.40 and I'm not going to buy from you at $21 when I 
can get stock at $19.40.  After all, I'd have to carry that risk 
overnight and into tomorrow morning's open.  Who knows what can 
happen between then and now?

In all, I've said before that what really matters is what takes 
place during normal trading hours when all market participants 
have equal opportunity to trade.

Intel Chart - Daily Interval




For me, Intel (INTC) was about the only large-cap technology 
stock I felt had a chance at bullishness, thus my bullish profile 
for 1/2 bullish position the morning of May 24th.  After hours 
trading does look as if this trade will be stopped out for a loss 
if INTC opens at current levels of $24.24.

I will continue to monitor INTC in the coming sessions as a loss 
if stopped out at $25 or lower, will be confirmation perhaps of 
just how negative the market is right now toward technology 
stocks.  Again, it has been my observation that the semiconductor 
sector was the strongest sector of technology, and that Intel 
(INTC) was the best risk/reward trade in the semiconductor 
sector.

Therefore, if the MARKET will sell the stock at $25, then there 
are other stocks, further away from any proverbial "money pot" or 
down the food chain that will have further downside too.

That's right... Cisco!

I wouldn't consider Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) $15.46 -2.88% a 
semiconductor stock, but Intel's (INTC) lowered guidance from 
tonight did have a negative impact on previously bearish profile 
CSCO as this stock trades $14.77 in after hours trading.

Cisco Systems Chart - Daily Interval




My bullishness in Intel (INTC) was perhaps offset with 
bearishness in Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) $15.46 -2.88% as a 
representative of the Networking Index (NWX.X) 176.33 -4.71%, 
which broke to a new 52-week low.  Those short CSCO from previous 
commentary can lower stops to just above the 50-day MA of $15.55, 
say $15.75.  Near-term target to lock in gains would be the mid-
point of regression at $14 as a bear looks for the 05/07-05/08 
gap to get partially filled to the downside.

Psychology in play

Tonight news from Intel also shows just how poor a bull's 
psychology may be and how that negativity spreads at what seems 
almost "senseless" proportions.  Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) $42.79 
-5.97% broke to a 52-week low today, but even after Intel's news, 
this biotech giant's stock saw further selling in after-hours 
trading at $41.20.  I'd argue that AMGN has very little to do 
with Intel's news on the semiconductor sector, but after-hour's 
trading has everything to do with "tech" psychology.  Biogen 
(NASDAQ:BGEN) $47.70 -3.51% also saw further declines to $46.00 
in after-hours trading.

Some of this "senseless" trading in after-hours is sign of near-
term capitulation from the market.  Why would a bull in AMGN or 
BGEN decide to sell their stock in after-hours trading based on 
tonight's INTC news?  Unless of course they're psychology is so 
damaged that they've simply had had enough and just want out.

Market Internals

Yesterday, our more longer-term indicator of true market 
bullishness/bearishness turned lower in the NYSE Bullish Percent 
($BPNYA) from www.stockcharts.com.  This is a much broader 
sampling of stocks than the more volatile and faster changing 
NASDAQ-100 Bullish Percent ($BPNDX).  

As pointed out in today's 01:00 Update, this now has all of the 
major bullish percent charts in a column of O and showing market 
internals are really starting to erode as more and more stocks 
generate sell signals on their charts.  Tonight's close shows 
57.05% of the stocks listed on the NYSE having a "buy signal" 
still associated with its point and figure chart.

NYSE Bullish % Chart - 2% box




Wow! Over 8.5 years of bullish % data can be viewed on the NYSE 
Bullish % ($BPNYA) from www.stockcharts.com.  This tells us that 
this broader market indicator is a slower and more methodical 
mover.  While it is a "slow mover" yesterday's reversal is 
another negative that shows market internals on the more 
institutionally held NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 555.90 -0.71%.  The 
NYSE Composite is what many call "the true market" as the stocks 
listed there as opposed to the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 1,568 -
1.64% are less influenced by some of the gyrations that market 
makers can have on stock price action.

For now, yesterday's reversal in the NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYA) 
become a 1,000 lb. gorilla that will almost act like a pillow
 that smothers near-term rallies.

Traders will now note, that a comparison of the quicker moving 
NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX), which currently reads 27% bullish 
is at "opposite ends" of bullishness.  This is an important 
observation to understand when it comes to BEARISH trading.  

Equity BEARS should now start turning their attention to 1,2 and 
3-lettered stocks that are breaking below upward trends and 
generating sell signals, or looking to short 1,2 and 3-lettered 
stocks that trade below trend and have perhaps rallied to levels 
of resistance.  In essence, these types of stocks should provide 
better risk/reward trading near-term as it relates to the bullish 
%.

I need to stress!  Below trend and generating sell signals.  Too 
often, a trader will simply think they can find success in a 
bearish trade "just because" the bullish % reverses lower.  Yet 
often times, a stock in an upward trend that is still on a buy 
signal buck the broader market decline and outperforms to the 
upside or performs relatively better than other trades that could 
have been taken.

NASDAQ-100 Bullish % Chart - 2% box




Today's action has found a net loss of 3-stocks to sell signals 
in the NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X) 1,157.62 -3.17% as the NASDAQ-100 
Bullish % ($BPNDX) chart shows just 24% (24 of the 100 stocks) 
having a buy signal associated with its chart.  Applied Materials 
(NASDAQ:AMAT) was one of the stocks that did finally generate a 
sell signal (column of O exceeding a previous column of O) on its 
point and figure chart when the stock traded $21 on Monday.

You can see from the above chart that we only can view about 
1-year's worth of bullish % data in the NASDAQ-100 bullish %, and 
it seems to "react" to the oversold (below 30%) and overbought 
(above 70%) levels on a more frequent basis.  

There are perhaps two reasons for this as compared to the NYSE 
bullish %.  One reason is that there are only 100 stocks in the 
NASDAQ-100 bullish %, while there are over 3,000 stock listed on 
the NYSE.  The second reason is that NASDAQ listed stocks are 
often times more volatile as you have market makers constantly 
assessing and managing risk/reward in their inventories.

Tomorrow morning, bearish traders that are looking to short some 
NASDAQ stocks need to be careful that they don't chase a gap 
lower and short, then find the stock they shorted that may be 
more overextended to the downside on its chart get a bounce from 
short covering as those that "took the risk" to hold a short 
position ahead of tonight's Intel update, buy some weakness on a 
gap lower at the open.

NASDAQ-Composite Bullish % Chart - 2% box




The broader NASDAQ-Composite Bullish Percent ($BPCOMPQ) gives the 
trader/investor a more "worldly" view of the NASDAQ internals and 
risk in that market, while the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) 
gives a view of larger-cap NASDAQ stocks.  Combined with the NYSE 
Bullish Percent ($BPNYA), a trader/investor pretty much has 
things covered.  

Investors/traders still need to honor stops in bullish/bearish 
trades, despite what they may be hearing about "oversold" 
conditions.  When you look at the NYSE and NASDAQ bullish percent 
charts, these two broader market indicators are nowhere near 
"oversold" levels as it relates to their bullish % charts.

Lots of trader's wonder why the NASDAQ Composite Bullish % 
($BPCOMPQ) doesn't get up to the 70% level like the S&P 500 
Bullish % ($BPSPX) and NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYA) will on occasion.  
The only explanation I've been able to come up with based on 
conversations with point and figure analysts is that NASDAQ 
listed stocks aren't as "institutionally held" as are NYSE listed 
stocks.  An when higher levels of market bullishness are found, 
mutual funds tend to prefer NYSE listed stocks over NASDAQ listed 
stocks.  

Often times we will see stocks change their listing from the 
NASDAQ and move over to the NYSE.  Perhaps now we know why.  
Emulex Corporation (NASDAQ:EMLX) $30.41 -1.2% recently announced 
it would switch to the NYSE, which will take place later this 
month on June 25th.  EMLX said "moving to the New York Stock 
Exchange will increase Emulex's visibility with a wider base of 
investors in domestic and international markets."

You see?  Membership does have its privileges!  At least Emulex 
seems to think so.

Personally, I think EMLX simply got tired of their stock price 
being jerked around from market maker influence and was looking 
for some stability.

I'm also going to make a prediction, but this will take some more 
research.  Over time, I've seen some NASDAQ listed stocks, switch 
their listing from NASDAQ to NYSE prior to a merger with a larger 
NYSE listed stock.

While this is not a reason to speculate bullishly, I'm going to 
start keeping a closer eye on EMLX.  The stock has held up rather 
well in the past couple of months, relative to other stocks in 
the data storage/networking area.  I'm not an expert on 
merger/acquisitions, but it might make sense for an IBM / EMLX 
type of partnership.  I also thought of and EMC / EMLX 
partnership, but with EMC stock down at $7.28, EMC looks to have 
enough problems on their hands without trying to worry about a 
merger integration.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


=========================
Play-of-the-Day           (New BEARISH play)
=========================

Amdocs Ltd - DOX - close: 17.81 change: -0.33 stop: 18.86

Company Description:
Amdocs is the world's leading provider of CRM, billing and order 
management systems to the communications industry. Amdocs has an 
unparalleled success record in project delivery of its mission-
critical products. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It: 
Much like the plummeting NASDAQ, the GSO.X software index has 
given bulls a severe case of heartburn in recent weeks...and a 
break under its September lows could be downright nauseating.  
Thus far DOX has held up relatively well versus the sector, but 
that could work to our favor.  With so many software stocks 
looking ridiculously oversold, it's difficult to find short 
candidates that aren't begging for a short-covering rally.  DOX 
is not as overextended, and has ample room to move to the 
downside.  The recent sideways trading has also set up the 
technical basis for this play.  DOX is currently trading at the 
top of its descending regression channel.  Shares haven't broken 
out of this range for five months, and given the overall tech 
weakness, we doubt it's going to happen this time either.  It's 
also interesting to note that the stock has just broken out of 
its triangular consolidation, which is characterized by a pattern 
of higher lows and lower highs.   We're going to initially target 
the $15 level (which coincides with the channel's midline), 
although we may consider exiting the play if shares bounce from 
the relative lows near $16.  Although DOX will probably gap lower 
with the tech sector tomorrow, it's a listed stock and thus not 
likely to gap as much as its NASDAQ counterparts.  We'll also be 
closely monitoring the GSO.X to see how it behaves at the 112 
level, near the September lows.  A break of this level could lead 
to a quick test of 100, while a strong bounce could spell trouble 
for sector bears.  Our initial stop is placed at $18.86, just 
above the Wednesday high.

Picked on June 6th at $17.81 
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date        4/23/02 (confirmed)
 




================
Market Sentiment
================

Oh, Intel
By Eric Utley

Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) lowering of guidance after the bell
Thursday changed the market's sentiment in one quick swoop.  Not
to say that it was even remotely bullish ahead of the chip
maker's mid quarter update.  But any hope that was left before
the close of another tough day in the market was most likely
dashed after the close.

Judging by the way that the PC sensitive stocks were trading
in after hours, as well as the futures market, we're in for an
ugly opening tomorrow morning.  We wondered Tuesday night if
Intel could provide the catalyst for the bulls to turn around
the oversold nature of the technology heavy Nasdaq market, and
spark a short term rally in tech shares.  Intel sure enough
provided a catalyst, but it wasn't of the type that we had
speculated.  Tonight, we're wondering if Intel's news will
provide the catalyst to spark a short term washout in the
market.  Let's take a look at the sentiment figures.

The sector scorecard wasn't all too surprising Thursday.  Every
technology sector on my screen was bleeding red, led by the
Fiber Optic Index (FOP.X) and Biotechnology (BTK.X).  What
really stuck out to me was the weakness in the banks, which
had been holding up very well prior to the last two days of
blood letting in the broader markets.  The KBW Bank Sector
Index (BKX.X) finished off by more than 2 percent, which is
a pretty big move for that index.  Two of the lead banks in
the sector, Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC),
both look pretty ugly.  On the other side, the defensive
natured gold stocks were back to their rally.

The internals of the market were as ugly as I can remember
in a long time.  Decliners swamped advancers, volume was
relatively heavy, and there were a whole lot of new lows
traced during Thursday's session, especially on the Nasdaq
market.  Not too many new highs were hit.

To reiterate what we observed Tuesday night, the short-term
ARMS Index indicators are still in extreme oversold readings
above the 1.50 level.  Both the 5-day and 10-day are now in
oversold readings above 1.50.

And then there's the fear gauges of the market, the CBOE
Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) and the Nasdaq-100 Volatility
Index (VXN.X).  Both are revealing heightened states of
market fear, and both are poised to stage big follow through
breakouts during tomorrow's session.  We'll see if both can
hold above their respective technical levels, or if they
pullback on any strength in stocks.

The bullish percent data was very active Thursday.  The NYSE
Composite reversed into bull correction mode, which was
probably the most important development because of the broad
nature of the index.  Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 fell down to
24 percent.  That index should lose a few more stocks
tomorrow, and by doing so grow much more oversold.  And the
Dow reversed into a bear confirmed mode as well.

With several indicators pointing to a very oversold market,
I wouldn't be surprised by a washout event tomorrow thanks to
Intel.  Be prepared to trade either side, though, as the
volatility should produce plenty of profit opportunities.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     :  9625

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  9941
 50-dma: 10116
200-dma:  9879

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1029

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1062
 50-dma: 1093
200-dma: 1112

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1158

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1213
 50-dma: 1298
200-dma: 1434


Gold and Silver ($XAU)

The shiny stuff was back in the spotlight Thursday.  The XAU
reclaimed the best performing sector spot after its recent
slide.  The sector finished 0.77 percent higher Thursday,
pathetically earning the day's best performance.

Leading to the upside included Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI),
Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM), Harmony Gold (NASDAQ:HGMCY),
Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX), and Placer Dome (NYSE:PDG).

52-week High: 89
52-week Low : 49
Current     : 84

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 85
 50-dma: 77
200-dma: 63


Fiber Optic ($FOP)

The FOP was back in the dog house, falling 5.03 percent for
the day.  It barely edged out the BTK for the worst
performing sector spot for the day.

Leading to the downside included shares of Nortel
Networks (NYSE:NT), Vitesse (NASDAQ:VTSS), JDS Uniphase
(NASDAQ:JDSU), Alcatel (NYSE:ALA), Lucent (NYSE:LU), and
ADC Telecommunications (NASDAQ:ADCT).

52-week High: 139
52-week Low :  57
Current     :  57

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  63
 50-dma:  76
200-dma: N/A

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX traded above the 28 level Thursday, slightly above its
intraday high traced Tuesday.  We should see some follow
through into Friday's session.  But will have to wait to draw
any conclusions over the weekend, when we see where the VIX
closes Friday.

The VXN penetrated its 200-dma to the upside Thursday, but
couldn't manage a close above despite the weakness in the
Nasdaq-100 (NDX.X).  Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) news should inspire
a breakout and close above Friday.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 27.36 +2.65
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 49.83 +1.81

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.73        365,435       266,163
Equity Only    0.55        306,482       169,056
OEX            1.01         15,482        15,750
QQQ            0.40         27,820        11,267

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          57      - 1     Bull Correction***
NASDAQ-100    24      - 3     Bull Correction
DOW           50      - 3     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       52      - 1     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       51      - 1     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.68
10-Day Arms Index  1.57
21-Day Arms Index  1.32
55-Day Arms Index  1.36

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       993           2192
NASDAQ     965           2477

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE       63            110
NASDAQ     44            194

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,611
NASDAQ   1,622

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 05/28/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials grew more bearish last week by adding about 5,000
contracts to their net bearish position.  They did so by adding
more shorts than longs.  Listen up!  Small traders reached their
most bullish position in over a year by adding a big number of
long positions to total more than 114,000 net long contracts.  The
spread here between commercials and small traders has widen
considerably over the last two weeks!

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
05/14/02      343,941   424,893   (80,952)  (12.1%)
05/21/02      354,039   429,803   (75,764)   (9.7%)
05/28/02      362,607   442,845   (80,238)   (9.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
05/07/02      154,664     59,583   95,081     44.4%
05/14/02      163,035     58,587  104,448     49.8%
05/21/02      172,313     57,803  114,510     49.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials grew less bullish last week by reducing their
longs more than their shorts.  Small traders went in the opposite
direction by growing less bearish, reducing their net position by
about 3,000 contracts. 

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
05/14/02       40,858     35,761     5,097   (5.5%)
05/21/02       51,448     45,375     6,073   (6.3%)
05/28/02       49,669     44,900     4,769   (5.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   7,774  - 12/21/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
05/14/02       11,920    17,479    (5,559)     8.2% 
05/21/02       12,567    19,899    (7,332)    22.6%
05/28/02       12,562    16,969    (4,407)    14.9%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow commercials were flat on a week over week basis.  Their net
position lost less than 100 contracts.  Small traders grew less
bearish, though, by adding a number of long positions.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
05/14/02       21,080    14,725    6,355     14.4% 
05/21/02       20,173    15,317    4,856     13.7%
05/28/02       20,289    15,513    4,776     13.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
05/14/02        4,930    10,899    (5,969)   (25.2%) 
05/21/02        3,661     9,585    (5,924)   (44.7%)
05/28/02        5,709     9,180    (3,471)   (23.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------





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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 06-06-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bearish Play Updates:  AT, CLS, CMCSK, NET, TBH
  Closed Bearish Plays:  BRCD

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  DCX, OHP, RJR, THC
  Bearish Play Updates:  BA, BSTE, DHR, FBN

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:     DOX, SFY
  Bullish Play Updates:  PVN
  Bearish Play UPdates:  INMT

Split Trader
                         KRB:  3-for-2 split announcement
                         SII:  2-for-1 split announcement
                         PNRA: 2-for-1 split approval


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Alltel Corp - AT - close: 49.29 change: -2.00 stop: 50.24 *new*

Our short position in this wireless telecom company finally began 
spurting a smidgeon of green ink for us with today's sharp 
decline.  Now comes the hard part: AT's low today represented the 
key 61.8% ($49.00) retracement of its recent May 13th - May 24th 
rise.  Although we could see a bit more down side, to the 78.6% 
level ($48.27), a reversal at $49.00 is not out of the question.  
Accordingly, we're going to adjust our stop in order to protect 
this position from an unexpected reversal, lowering the buy stop 
to $50.24.  This level is just above near term resistance--the 
lows since May 22.  Very aggressive traders might want to 
consider new short positions in AT as long as it continues 
trading under the new stop level ($50.24)

Picked on June 4th at $49.94
Change since picked:   +0.65
Earnings Date       04/25/02 (confirmed)




---

Celestica - CLS - close: 26.90 change: -0.28 stop: 27.82 *new* 

After Tuesday's lowered guidance from competitor Flextronics--
which whacked both FLEX and CLS, some analysts have said that 
they believe CLS will not follow suit. Even with this as a 
backdrop for the stock, CLS moved lower today along with the rest 
of the tech sector and the Nasdaq Composite.  We still think that 
CLS can decline to either its 127% or 161.8% Fibonacci 
retracement (of its May 7-May 17 advance); these levels are 
$23.45 and $20.82 respectively.  New short positions can be 
entered on a break below yesterday's low of $26.32.  Please note 
that we have lowered our buy stop again to $27.82, which is just 
above our declining Bollinger Band 5-dma, and yesterday's high.

Picked on May 21st at $30.94
Gain since picked:     +4.04
Earnings Date       04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Comcast Corp - CMCSK - cls: 25.58 chg: -0.12 stop: 26.89 *new*

Our price target for this short position remains at the $24 
level, which would have CMCSK declining to at least the 127% 
retracement of its April 30 - May 22 advance.  We have elected to 
lower our buy stop again to $26.89 in order to protect profits in 
this trade.  This new buy stop level is just above yesterday's 
high as well as slightly above our sharply declining Bollinger 
Band 5-dma. New positions should probably be deferred until CMCSK 
trades below today's low of $25.17.

Picked on June 3rd at 27.89
Gain since picked:    +2.31
Earnings Date      05/01/02 (confirmed)




---

Network Associates - NET - cls: 17.27 chg: -0.90 stop: 18.77 *new*

After three days of trading in the $18.00 - $19.25 range, NET 
began hitting new short-term lows today.  Technically, today's 
action, which occurred on a sharp volume spike, turned our 
Bollinger Bands (5-dma, 1.7sd) in a decidedly downward direction. 
This is clearly supportive of our short position. We are 
tightening our stop to $18.77, which is above today's high as 
well as our declining Bollinger Band 5-dma.  Our short-term price 
target is $17.25, which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci 
retracement level of NET's May 7 - May 20 advance.  Aggressive 
traders may want to be a bit slow to pull the trigger at this 
level, though, as long as the stock does not try to rebound 
quickly.  The reason:  if the 78.6% level fails, the next stop in 
coming weeks could be to the 127% level, or $13.61.

Picked on May 31st at $19.35
Gain since picked:     +2.08
Earnings Date        04/11/02 (confirmed)




---

Telecom Brasil - TBH - close: 25.90 change: -1.50 stop: 26.49 *new*

On Tuesday we briefly discussed the technical pattern forming on TBH, 
and the reasons we felt that the stock was preparing for a sharp, quick 
decline. If you do not recall our discussion about triangles that form 
at the bottom of declines, you may want to revisit our June 4th update 
on TBH.  Triangular breakdowns produce some of the sharpest, quickest 
declines, and TBH is giving us a textbook example of why these are 
excellent price patterns to short.  

If you use Stochastics in your trading, please be sure to look at TBH's 
daily Stochastic (5,3,3); it presently sits in solidly oversold 
territory.  Some traders seem to feel that a patently oversold 
Stochastic is a warning that prices are ready to rebound--or that it is 
signaling an entry point for a long position.  This is an incorrect and 
potentially dangerous interpretation, and TBH is a very good example of 
this.  When stocks have experienced sharp declines like TBH, an 
oversold Stochastic simply re-affirms that prices are likely to 
CONTINUE to close near their daily lows. Some of the sharpest declines 
in prices occur when the Stochastic is pinned in its oversold region.  
It's like driving a frisky Porsche 1988 911 Turbo at 180 MPH.  Just 
because you let off the accelerator a bit does not mean you are going 
to slow down much--or go in reverse.  You're still traveling at 155--
and that's serious speed.  The same is true with declining stocks.

We said recently that our current target for this short position was 
either $26.00 and, perhaps, even $25.00. Since we have now declined to 
the key 127% retracement of the May 13 - May 30 advance, which is just 
a few pennies below our first profit target of $26.00, aggressive 
traders may not want to take some gains rather than waiting for a 
potential decline to the 161.8% level ($24.85).  Our feeling is that 
TBH will either simply collapse further over the next couple of days, 
or begin a sharp rebound.  With this in mind, we've decided to really 
tighten our buy stop to $26.49, which is just slightly above the May 
13th low of $26.35.

Picked on May 22nd at $27.70 
Gain since picked:     +1.80
Earnings Date            N/A





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  -------------------- 

Brocade - BRCD - close: 19.77 change: -0.23 stop: 20.26

EMC reaffirmed guidance to analysts today, saying that it still 
sees single-digit sequential revenue expansion in its current 
quarter; the networker also indicated that they would match 
analysts' $0.02 EPS estimate.  Competitor Brocade was initially 
helped by this marginally positive announcement, climbing to a 
high of $20.36 intraday, before dipping lower in afternoon 
trading.  Unfortunately, the morning advance was enough to stop 
us out of this trade, giving us a 4.5% loss.  

Picked on May 22nd at $19.35 
Gain since picked:     -0.91
Earnings Date       04/15/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

DaimlerChrysler - DCX - cls: 48.19 chg: +0.48 stop: 46.72

Following a successful test of the 50-dma, DCX moved higher with 
the broader market on Wednesday.  This must've scared off some of 
the bears, because the stock continued to move up today despite a 
triple-digit decline on the Dow Jones.  The recent bounce is 
encouraging, but it'll take a real concerted effort by the bulls 
to power DCX above the relative high of $50.88.  This makes 
entries at current levels a sticky proposition.  The best 
strategy would probably be to wait for either another dip to the 
50-dma (currently $46.94) or a move over $50.88.

Picked on May 6th at $46.50 
Gain since picked:    +1.69
Earnings Date      02/20/02 (confirmed)



 
---  

Oxford Health - OHP - close: 47.60 change: -0.45 stop: *text*

OHP briefly showed signs of bullishness this morning, coming 
within 18 cents of our entry trigger at $48.64.  The rally was 
short-lived, however, and shares proceeded to gravitate towards 
the $48 level for the rest of the session.  With no new technical 
developments (and a nice display of relative strength versus the 
Dow Jones), we still believe that OHP will trade on the north 
side of $50.00 in the near-future.  Remember that if/when we do 
get triggered, our stop will be set at $46.48.

Picked on June Xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:   +0.00
Earnings Date       05/01/02 (confirmed)




---

RJ Reynolds - RJR - close: 68.71 change: -1.08 stop: 67.94

On Wednesday afternoon RJR announced that it would be increasing 
its quarterly cash dividend by 8.6%, to $0.95 per common share.  
The dividend will be payable on July 1, 2002 to stockholders of 
record on June 18, 2002.  This news did little to bolster the 
stock, as shares joined the broader market in an afternoon 
selloff.  Today's action was much the same, with the bears 
dominating afternoon trading.  Although the recent trend of lower 
lows is somewhat concerning, the stock has held up relatively 
well versus the Dow.  We'd expect the 50-dma at $68.18 to offer 
support if the decline continues.  Lower-risk entries could be 
considered on a bounce from this level.  

Picked on May 30th at $70.34
Change since picked:   -1.63
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed)




---

Tenet Healthcare - THC - close: 73.30 change: -0.06 stop: 69.33

After turning in an impressive performance on Wednesday, the HMO 
Index (Healthcare Index) paused to catch its breath.  Although it 
posted a small decline, sector bulls have got to be pleased with 
today's action.  The index maintained support at 620 and 
outperformed the Dow Jones, which shed 1.7%.  THC moved with 
lower as well but dropped only six cents.  We'll see how the 
market reacts to tonight's negative INTC news, but a heavy 
selloff in the NASDAQ could very well result in money rotating 
back to the healthcare sector.  Traders looking for entries 
should continue to watch for a bounce from the 50-dma ($71.56) or 
a move above the all-time high of $75.45.

Picked on May 29th at $72.98
Change since picked:   +0.32
Earnings Date       04/02/02 (confirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Boeing Company - BA - cls: 41.96 chg: -0.58 stop: 43.55

In the absence of any major news, shares of BA spent the last two 
sessions trading in a narrow range.  The stock found support at 
the $42 level, while bears would not allow a move above $42.80.  
Although the daily stochastics (5,3,3) remain pinned in the 
oversold range, there seems to be little buying interest at 
current levels.  Traders looking to open new short positions can 
continue to wait a break under the 200-dma at $41.53.  An 
alternate strategy would be to short failed rallies at the 10-dma 
($42.82), which for the past two weeks has provided resistance.  
Premier Investor is currently up 5.3% on this play.

Picked on May 21st at $44.35
Gain since picked:     +2.39
Earnings Date       07/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 



--- 

Biosite, Inc. - BSTE - close: 26.80 change: -0.63 stop: *text*

Our short play in BSTE remains un-triggered.  The stock has 
roughly mirrored the action on the Dow Jones, following the index 
higher on Wednesday and dropping 2.3% today.  Shares came within 
21 cents of our action point at $26.29 but finished well above 
that level.  As you might recall from last night's write-up, 
we're expecting BSTE to break under the relative low and fill in 
the rest of the April 23rd gap.  That hasn't happened yet, but 
with the 50-dma looming overhead we'd be surprised to see shares 
advance beyond today's high.  If the play is activated, our stop-
loss will be placed at $27.94.  This is a slight adjustment from 
our original stop, reflecting the upward movement in the 50-dma.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       04/22/02


 

---

Danaher Corp. - DHR - cls: 68.70 chg: -0.48 stop: 71.65

We're still waiting on that breakdown.  DHR isn't exactly a 
bastion of bullishness, but it's held up pretty well versus the 
declining Dow Jones.  If the stock does move higher, we'd expect 
the 50-dma at $71.17 to provide resistance.  It's also 
interesting to note that shares have traced a pattern of higher 
lows since May 30th.  While at first glance this is a bullish 
development, a break below this trend could lead to another round 
of selling.  To this end, aggressive traders could evaluate new 
bearish positions on a break of today's low ($68.04.)  The more 
prudent approach would be to wait for a move under the near-term 
low at $67.31.

Picked on May 13th at $69.03
Gain since picked:     -0.33
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed) 




--- 

Furniture Brands Int. - FBN - cls: 35.58 chg: -0.53 stop: *text*

FBN could be coiling for a big move.  The stock has moved in an 
increasingly narrow range and traded its second consecutive 
inside day on Thursday.  Volume was tepid, coming in at less than 
half the daily average.  If the recent downtrend is any 
indication, odds are good that the move will be painful for the 
bulls.  

Due to FBN's coiling behavior (and its inability to rebound to 
the $37 level), we're going to adjust our entry strategy.  Rather 
than trying to short a failed rally, we're going to go short once 
the stock breaks below yesterday's low of $35.13.  If the play is 
triggered our stop-loss will be placed at $36.66, just above the 
Tuesday high.  Although bears should be aware of the uptrending 
daily stochastics (5,3,3), we suspect that a break below the 
current range could lead to a quick test of the 200-dma near $32.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       04/24/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=============
HR New Plays
=============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Amdocs Ltd - DOX - close: 17.81 change: -0.33 stop: 18.86

Company Description:
Amdocs is the world's leading provider of CRM, billing and order 
management systems to the communications industry. Amdocs has an 
unparalleled success record in project delivery of its mission-
critical products. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It: 
Much like the plummeting NASDAQ, the GSO.X software index has 
given bulls a severe case of heartburn in recent weeks...and a 
break under its September lows could be downright nauseating.  
Thus far DOX has held up relatively well versus the sector, but 
that could work to our favor.  With so many software stocks 
looking ridiculously oversold, it's difficult to find short 
candidates that aren't begging for a short-covering rally.  DOX 
is not as overextended, and has ample room to move to the 
downside.  The recent sideways trading has also set up the 
technical basis for this play.  DOX is currently trading at the 
top of its descending regression channel.  Shares haven't broken 
out of this range for five months, and given the overall tech 
weakness, we doubt it's going to happen this time either.  It's 
also interesting to note that the stock has just broken out of 
its triangular consolidation, which is characterized by a pattern 
of higher lows and lower highs.   We're going to initially target 
the $15 level (which coincides with the channel's midline), 
although we may consider exiting the play if shares bounce from 
the relative lows near $16.  Although DOX will probably gap lower 
with the tech sector tomorrow, it's a listed stock and thus not 
likely to gap as much as its NASDAQ counterparts.  We'll also be 
closely monitoring the GSO.X to see how it behaves at the 112 
level, near the September lows.  A break of this level could lead 
to a quick test of 100, while a strong bounce could spell trouble 
for sector bears.  Our initial stop is placed at $18.86, just 
above the Wednesday high.

Picked on June 6th at $17.81 
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date        4/23/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Swift Energy - SFY - close: 13.70 change: -0.80 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Swift Energy Company develops and operates oil and gas wells.  
Its major focus concerns onshore oil and natural gas reserves in 
Texas and Louisiana, and onshore oil and natural gas reserves in 
New Zealand. Swift owns or has interests in 1,235 wells; 854 of 
these wells represent 95% of its proven reserves.

Why We Like It:
Since October of 2000, SFY has been in an extended bear market.  
The price of its stock has declined from a high of $43.50 to 
today's new 52 week low of $13.70.  This decline has been 
unrelenting in recent months and, more particularly, in recent 
weeks.  It is unclear to us why this stock has failed to respond, 
even remotely, to the more positive movement of the XOI (Oil 
Index), OSX (Oil Services Index) or even recent spikes in the 
price of crude oil over the last couple of years.  The current 
turbulence surrounding other oil/energy related companies like 
Enron and Williams Company has no doubt hurt the Swift as well. 
As if all this is not tragic enough for the stock, AG Edwards 
downgraded SFY on May 31st; this followed a similar downgrade on 
May 1st by both JP Morgan and Lehman Brothers.

The bottom line on Swift is this: SFY stock is fundamentally 
about as ugly as a two-headed, bucktoothed rat, and its technical 
condition is no less disturbing.  From May 7th through June 5th, 
SFY had been attempting to consolidate sideways, between roughly 
$14.00 - $16.00.  That effort seems to have failed today--
miserably--with the stock dropping nearly 5% in the absence of 
any news.  We are interested in shorting it because of its 
current technical weakness and because we believe that the price 
of crude oil is on the verge of a sharp drop, perhaps from the 
current $25.00 range to something near $21.00 over the next 
couple of weeks. 

We will enter a short position once SFY has traded below today's 
low of $13.70. Once this short play is triggered, we will use a 
very, very tight stop.  Why?  Technically, we think that SFY's 
price should simply collapse lower without any meaningful 
rebound.  If this scenario does not occur, though, we will have 
to acknowledge that reversal in price is possible and we do not 
want to be short under such circumstances.  With this in mind, 
our buy stop will be just above near-term resistance at $14.26.  
Our short-term price target is $12.15, which represents the 161% 
retracement of the Feb. 20th - April 2nd advance.  From a 
reward/risk perspective, we are risking a 4% loss in the hope of 
receiving a fairly quick 11% gain (at a minimum), providing a 
nice reward/risk ratio of just about 3:1.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       05/01/02 confirmed
 




===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Providian Financial - PVN - cls: 7.31 chg: -0.25 stop: 6.99

In the last 3 trading days PVN has begun to technically 
deteriorate.  Of immediate concern to us is the failure of the 
stock to remain above a trend line that runs under PVN's series 
of rising lows, which it has since May 6th.  With PVN's last 
three closes under this trend line--and with today's close 2% 
under the 50-dma--aggressive traders may wish to use an 
"unofficial" sell stop of $7.22; this level, just below today's 
low, would close this long trade with 5.5% loss IF it were to be 
hit.  

Picked on May 22nd at $7.66
Gain since picked:    -0.35
Earnings Date      05/06/02 (confirmed)


 

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  -------------------- 

Intermet Corp. - INMT - cls: 9.04 chg: -0.50 stop: 9.61 *new*

Our new play in Troy, Michigan-based Intermet was triggered this 
morning at the opening price of $9.48. This new short position 
enjoyed a nice one-day gain of nearly 5%, and its plunge in price 
was accompanied by a healthy surge in volume.  INMT is now 
trading well below its 50-dma and has successfully pushed our 
lower Bollinger Band into a deep slide--always a good technical 
indicator for a short position.  We're not going to take any 
chances with this trade, and have elected to immediately lower 
our buy stop tonight to $9.61.  There is a chance that INMT might 
try to find support at the $8.50 level, and aggressive traders 
may wish to take profits here if 1) INMT stalls at that level or 
2) moves modestly below $8.50 and then begins to rebound.  If 
INMT can successfully drive below the $8.50 level, then we'll 
likely target $6.50 as an official profit target.

Picked on June 6th at $9.48 
Gain since picked:    +0.44
Earnings Date       04/11/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

MBNA Corporation announces 3-for-2 stock split

Bank holding company MBNA Corporation (NYSE: KRB) announced a 3-
for-2 stock split after the market opened for trading today.

The split will take the form of a 50% stock dividend and will be
issued on July 15, 2002 to shareholders of record on July 1, 2002
Furthermore, the Board of Directors expects to declare a uarterly
dividend of $.07/share in mid-July, payable on October 1, 2002.
This would represent a 5% (split-adjusted) increase over the
urrent dividend.

KRB most recently split in 1998; also a 3-for-2 offering.  Shares
have rallied sharply from the September lows near $23.00 but YTD
have posted only a fractional gain.

The stock closed at $35.65 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=KRB


About the company	

MBNA Corporation, a bank holding company and parent of MBNA
America Bank, N.A., a national bank, has $98 billion in managed
loans. MBNA, the largest independent credit card lender in the
world, also provides retail deposit, consumer loan and insurance
products. (source: company press release)  

--- 

Smith International sets 2-for-1 stock split

Prior to the opening bell this morning, Smith International, Inc. 
(NYSE: SII) announced that its Board of Directors had declared a 
2-for-1 stock split.

The split will be effected as a 100% dividend and will be 
distributed on or about July 8, 2002 to shareholders of record on 
June 20, 2002.  

Shares of SII have not split in over 20 years.  Today's 
announcement comes after a rise of more than 100% from the stock's 
September lows.

SII closed at $68.56 on Thursday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=SII


About the company
Smith International, Inc. is a leading worldwide supplier of premium 
products and services to the oil and gas exploration and production 
industry, the petrochemical industry and other industrial markets 
through its four principal business units - M-I, Smith Bits, Smith 
Services and Wilson.
(source: company press release)

Split Updates
-------------

After the market closed today, Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA) announced that
the previously announced 2-for-1 stock split had recieved shareholder 
approval.  The split will be payable on June 24, 2002, to stockholders
of record on June 10, 2002. 



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