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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 06/10/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Monday 06-10-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Intel Under $10?
Watch List:       AHC, AMR, ABC, AET, CREE, IR, and more...
Play of the Day:  Not So Swift

******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
      06-10-2002          High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9645.40 + 55.73  9718.09  9562.54  1.22 bln   1657/1562
NASDAQ   1530.69 -  4.79  1551.80  1526.96  1.51 bln   1573/1885
S&P 100   509.03 +  1.71   513.10   505.63   Totals    3230/3447
S&P 500  1030.74 +  3.21  1038.18  1025.45
RUS 2000  469.29 -  1.22   473.50   468.60
DJ TRANS 2721.12 + 34.46  2735.67  2685.21
VIX        26.15 -  0.50   27.06     25.47
VXN        52.54 +  0.30   53.09     51.46
TRIN        1.00
PUT/CALL    0.77
******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========


INTEL UNDER $10?

I was not impressed with last Friday's positive reversal.  I 
remain bearish, and expect any strength on Tuesday or Wednesday 
to be replaced with more broad market weakness.

I continue to believe that the Dow is far more likely to see 
9250, or much lower, before it sees anything above 9900.  My view 
on the Nasdaq is even more cautious.  With INTL effectively 
collapsing since Friday--it is signaling that it will break its 
September 2001 lows--the prospects for the tech sector and, with 
it, the Nasdaq Composite, seem pretty gloomy. The Semiconductor 
Index (SOX) will need to find a serious bottom, and the ability 
to rebound, at the 424 region; it closed today at 437.  I discuss 
my views for these indexes, and others, in the sections below.

Today's Market:  

There were no economic reports, or earnings, responsible for 
today's up-and-down market session.  The broader averages opened 
up, but by mid-morning the whipsaw had begun.  The culprit--
again--was domestic terrorism.  US Attorney General Ashcroft 
announced that the Justice Department had arrested an individual 
suspected of preparing to combine explosives and radioactive 
material into a "dirty bomb."  Stocks dropped immediately until 
it was announced that this was really an old event--the arrest 
was made a month ago.  Happy again, investors drove the averages 
higher, until the last hour of trading, that is.  At one point, 
the Dow was up over 100 points, hitting 9718, before giving up 
more than half of its intraday gains, closing at 9645.  The SPX 
followed the Dow's lead, hitting 1038 intraday, only to finish up 
just 3 points at 1031 when all the trading was through.  The 
Nasdaq Composite spent a portion of the day crawling into 
positive territory, reaching a high of 1552; by the time trading 
was done, however, the COMPX had declined 5, finishing the Monday 
session at 1531.    

Other than the terrorist matter, news-related events were 
relatively muted.  Here are a few that seemed to influence 
investors.

NOKIA GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY:  JP Morgan upgraded Nokia and 
Erickson, both makers of telephone equipment, while Merrill Lynch 
reported that it expected mobile handset growth to be lower than 
expected.  Nokia offers mid-quarter guidance tomorrow, Tuesday, 
and this may move some of the stocks in that sector.

HMO INDEX:     After the close, HMO & healthcare stocks took 
center stage.  Wellpoint (WLP) raised earnings guidance for 2002 
as well as for each of the individual quarters remaining for the 
year: Q2, Q3, Q4.  In similar fashion, Tenet Healthcare (THC)--
one of PI's long positions--said that it expects to beat the 
street's EPS estimates for Q4, as well as for its full fiscal 
year.  Both stocks are associated with the recently high-flying 
HMO index (HMO).  The otherwise attractive weekly chart of this 
index contains a couple of items about which traders need to 
aware.  

In particular, I'm wondering if this index is on the cusp of 
putting in a double top.

WEEKLY PRICE CHART OF HMO INDEX




So far, the HMO has NOT established a double top.  It needs to 
reach 645, or higher, this week for a second top to be in place.  
Then, obviously, it will need to decline back below this level--
and close below this level--for a second top, with bearish 
implications, to be in place.  So, no double top--yet.  But as 
active traders this is the very kind of thing we need to 
anticipate.  If WLP and THC are able to lead the sector, and HMO 
Index, higher on Tuesday as we think they will, we'll probably 
get a move above 645 (only 2% above Monday's 632 close).  So our 
job will be to watch for a close on Wednesday, Thursday or 
Friday--or maybe even tomorrow--back below that level.

GOLD AND OIL:  Gold and Oil stocks were both weak today, and both 
are in intermediate term declines.   Although crude oil futures 
dipped only a penny, the XOI (Oil Index) lost 1.5% and the Oil 
Services Index (OSX) dropped over 3%.  We're expecting the entire 
oil complex to move lower, aggressively, in the next few days.  
Our "Play of the Day" for tomorrow--Swift Energy (SFY)--is an oil 
stock that will likely suffer if crude futures plunge later this 
week.  

Gold futures were notably weak, dropping 2%, with the June gold 
contract off about $6.  

INTEL:   Perhaps one of the most under-reported topics today was 
the continuing decline in Intel (INTC). A weekly chart is 
presented below, and it is one ugly bunch of numbers. After last 
Thursday evening's lowered guidance, the stock has fallen like a 
melon dropped out my office window.  INTC dropped another $0.93 
today, closing near its intraday lows at $21.07.  I think the 
plunge in this stock is being vastly underestimated, since my 
current technical indications for the stock suggest that it could 
be headed to a level well below its Sept. 2002 low of $19.08.  
Given the prominence this stock--and its sector--play in both the 
Dow and the Nasdaq, it seems to me that it will be very difficult 
for the averages to make much headway--except in a downward 
direction--if a major leader has been decapitated and 
eviscerated.

WEEKLY PRICE CHART OF INTEL (INTC)




I have noted before in this column that stocks decisively 
breaking below their 78.6% retracements--as INTC has done (see 
chart)--most frequently continue down to either their 127% or 
161.8% retracements.  Yes, there are other retracement levels 
above these, but my experience has shown me the extraordinary 
frequency with which the 127% and 161.8% levels are hit.  We'll 
have a better idea in a few days if this is likely to happen to 
INTC.  If its RSI breaks the declining support line it has used 
since late 2001, its downside movement will accelerate and I will 
have to assume that in such an environment INTC will be headed to 
one of these other two retracement levels ($14.58 and $8.50, 
respectively).  Frankly, I find either one of them almost 
unbelievable.  Is it possible INTC could actually trade under 
$10.00?  It staggers me to entertain that prospect, but that's 
what my charts are telling me at this time.

Getting Ready For Tuesday, June 11th.

There are really no economic reports of any significance for 
Tuesday.  We won't see much until Friday, when a series of 
potentially market-moving reports are released:  Industrial 
Production, Capacity Utilization, Business Inventories and 
Consumer Sentiment. Otherwise, the markets are likely to be moved 
by technical considerations.  So here are a few charts that offer 
my view of where key sectors and indexes may be headed in coming 
days.

The Crude Oil Futures (CL02N) Seem Poised For More Downside.  
They Closed at $24.26:   The weekly chart of crude oil futures 
illustrates that oil put in a sharp double top at $28.58 on May 
14th; since then the futures have fallen consistently.  When you 
look at this chart, you'll note that the lower Bollinger Band, 
and its 5-week ma, are both declining rapidly; this is usually an 
indication that lower prices are likely in the near-term.  Crude 
futures seem to be headed down to either the 61.8% or 78.6% 
retracement, or $23.00 and $21.50 respectively.   If this decline 
occurs over the next 1-3 weeks, we can expect fast declines in 
the Oil Index (XOI) and Oil Services Index (OSX) and the stocks 
comprising both these sectors.

WEEKLY PRICE CHART OF CRUDE OIL FUTURES (CL02N)





The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) Looks Like It Will Move 
Much Lower; It Closed at 9645: I said last week that Dow MUST 
return--immediately--to a level within the boundaries of its 
triangular consolidation (that is, decisively above 9900) if it 
is to offer any hope of repairing last week's technical 
deterioration.  The chart below suggests that it remains very 
weak, and the likelihood of a return above 9900 improbable. The 
Dow will do good to rebound to 9800, and that is probably pushing 
it. Unless something extraordinary occurs this week, I look for a 
decline to at least the 61.8% retracement (9166) over the next 
couple of weeks.

WEEKLY PRICE CHART OF DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE





S&P 500 (SPX) Closed at 1031: The SPX traded as high as 1038 
today; I said last week that we might see this index move back to 
1050 before more weakness sets in (though 1070 was not 
impossible).  The Dow is pulling the strings, and I look for this 
index to follow its lead.  If the Dow can struggle back to 9800, 
before more weakness hits it, which should equate to a return to 
SPX 1050+-.  The bottom line, though, is more weakness after a 
short rally (is it already over?) this week.

Nasdaq Composite (COMPX) Closed at 1531: I am not ready to say 
that the COMPX is headed straight to the 1240 region, as 
suggested by the weekly chart below, but as I noted last week, 
that remains a high probability. The weekly RSI is trending 
lower, and the COMPX is accompanied by a sharply declining 1) 
lower Bollinger Band, and 2) 5-week Bollinger Band ma.  These 
tell me that lower levels are coming, and quickly.  Now that the 
COMPX has broke its 78.6% retracement, the next likely stopping 
level, in coming weeks, is the 127% retracement, which sits at 
COMPX 1240.  Ugly indeed.  Will the index be able to rebound this 
week to the 1550 or 1600 resistance levels before more weakness 
sets in?  I don't know if it can. 

WEEKLY PRICE CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE (COMPX)




The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) Closed at 469:   I said on Friday 
that I thought the RUT might be able to rebound back into the 
480-487 region, before stalling and turning down again; that is 
still my view.  The Russell hit an intraday higher of 474 today.  
Once the Nasdaq and Dow start to decline this week, the RUT 
should be in for a more extended decline to 433, or lower.  

Keep your thinking caps on, and trading seat belts tight!

Siegfried Brian Barger, 
Editor   


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------


Amerada Hess - AHC - close: 78.09 change: +1.36

WHAT TO WATCH: We are bearish on oil prices, and believe that 
they are headed lower in coming days, and weeks.  AHC is likely 
to falter on lower oil prices, and we think this stock could be 
an attractive short.  The stock recently completed a double top 
on its weekly chart, with a bearish divergence on the RSI.  
Today, it closed under its 50-dma.  A rebound over the next few 
days to $81.00 is possible, but not likely.




---

AMR Corporation - AMR - close: 20.60 change: +0.53

WHAT TO WATCH: Something is happening with the airlines: we are 
seeing signs that the sector has bottomed.  A recent report of 
insider buying in AMR has us intrigued, on the long side.  With 
oil prices coming down--one of the major expenses for airlines--
we think that the airlines (XAL Index) could be the one sector 
that advances even if the Dow weakens in coming weeks.  AMR has 
resistance at its 50-dma, but we think that it now possesses a 
short-term pattern that will allow it to fracture this level 
quickly.  We'd turn negative on AMR if it began trading below its 
recent support level, in the $19.50 region.




---

Amerisourcebergen - ABC - close: 81.11 change: +2.47

WHAT TO WATCH: A three-day rally in shares of ABC has produced 
some very bullish technicals.  First and foremost, the stock has 
plowed through resistance at $80.00 and is trading at 52-week 
highs.  The volume backing today's move was very promising as 
well.  At 1.76M shares, it was the largest in over a month.  The 
oscillators are looking good as well.  The MACD is on the verge 
of a bullish crossover, while the daily stochastics (5,3,3) are 
charging higher and still have plenty of room to move.  Finally, 
the icing on this technical cake is the triple-top p-n-f buy 
signal that was produced by today's move.  Aggressive entries can 
be targeted on continued strength from current levels, while 
patient traders may want to wait for a pullback to the $80 level.




--- 

Aetna Inc. - AET - close: 49.08 change: +0.84

WHAT TO WATCH: A breakout could be looming for AET.  The stock 
has been outperforming the broader market in recent weeks and 
looks to be headed for a retest of stubborn resistance at the $50 
level.  With the daily stochastics (5,3,3) powering higher and 
MACD about to produce a bullish crossover, we think the odds of a 
breakout are good.  The two previous breakout attempts (late-
April/early-May) were not accompanied by a bullish MACD.  Entries 
can be evaluated on a close over $50.00, with more cautious 
traders may want to wait for a move above the 52-week high at 
$51.00.




--- 

Cree, Inc. - CREE - close: 12.67 change: +1.67

WHAT TO WATCH: Cree issued guidance for its fourth quarter this 
morning, indicating better revenue and earnings.  Prudential 
upgraded the stock on the improved guidance, and CREE enjoyed a 
strong day on Monday, with a huge volume surge.  The stock is 
currently extended, but once it is above a resistance area at 
about $13.75 - $14.50, it enters a fast move region, with gaps, 
that could see it rising very quickly to the $17.50 - $18.00 
region.  This is a high-risk trade because of the extended nature 
of the stock.  Traders might watch for a dip to today's low 
($11.55), followed by an immediate rebound, as a signal the stock 
is preparing for its next push upward.




---

Ingersoll Rand - IR - close: 49.33 change: +0.19

WHAT TO WATCH: IR has formed a large double top on its weekly 
chart and, like AHC profiled above, is sporting a bearish 
divergence on its RSI.  The stock has closed under its 50-dma 6 
of the last 8 trading sessions, and for the last three 
consecutive days.  It has resistance in the region of its 50-dma 
($50.50) and this should restrain any rebound.  Once it moves 
below $48.25, little exists to stop IR from dropping quickly.  We 
like this as a short play--obviously!




---

Lehman Bros. - LEH - close: 60.60 change: +0.43 stop: 

WHAT TO WATCH: Shareholders of LEH weathered some heavy selling 
in late May after the stock topped out near $67.  The recent 
action has been more palatable for the bulls, as LEH found buyers 
just above its bullish p-n-f support at $58.  The last two 
sessions have seen shares move nicely off that level.  With the 
daily stochastics (5,3,3) heading higher and MACD beginning to 
level out, aggressive entries can be considered at current 
levels.  The obvious fly in the ointment here is the collection 
of major moving averages (50,100,200) that are bunched together 
between $62-$63.  However, it's worth noting that on the last leg 
higher (late-April to mid-May), those MA's did little to impede 
the stock's progress.  We also like the action in the Broker 
Dealer Index (XBD), which seems to be basing at support near 435.  
This happens to be where the 50% retracement level (September 
lows to January highs) is located.





=============
MORE TO WATCH
============= 

ASA Ltd. - ASA - close: 32.25 change: -2.50

Shares of this South African company have lost more than 12% in 
the past two sessions.  The volume backing the decline has been 
brisk; today's reading was the second highest of the year.  With 
shares closing well under the 50-dma, there isn't any discernable 
support until the $28-$30 region.  




--- 

SPX Corp. - SPW - close: 123.40 change: -6.86 

SPW fell more than 5% today and came to a halt just above the 
200-dma.  A break under this level ($123.28) could lead to a test 
of bullish p-n-f support at $110.  The rising volume, triple-
bottom p-n-f breakdown, and downtrending oscillators all suggest 
further selling in the near-term.






===============
Play-of-the-day (BEARISH)
===============

Swift Energy - SFY - close: 13.44 change: -0.59 stop: 14.27

Company Description:
Swift Energy Company develops and operates oil and gas wells. Its 
major focus concerns onshore oil and natural gas reserves in 
Texas and Louisiana, and onshore oil and natural gas reserves in 
New Zealand. Swift owns or has interests in 1,235 wells; 854 of 
these wells represent 95% of its proven reserves. (source: 
company press release)




- ORIGINAL WRITE UP: June 6th, 2002 -

Why We Like It:
Since October of 2000, SFY has been in an extended bear market. 
The price of its stock has declined from a high of $43.50 to 
today's new 52 week low of $13.70. This decline has been 
unrelenting in recent months and, more particularly, in recent 
weeks. It is unclear to us why this stock has failed to respond, 
even remotely, to the more positive movement of the XOI (Oil 
Index), OSX (Oil Services Index) or even recent spikes in the 
price of crude oil over the last couple of years. The current 
turbulence surrounding other oil/energy related companies like 
Enron and Williams Company has no doubt hurt the Swift as well. 
As if all this is not tragic enough for the stock, AG Edwards 
downgraded SFY on May 31st; this followed a similar downgrade on 
May 1st by both JP Morgan and Lehman Brothers.


The bottom line on Swift is this: SFY stock is fundamentally 
about as ugly as a two-headed, bucktoothed rat, and its technical 
condition is no less disturbing. From May 7th through June 5th, 
SFY had been attempting to consolidate sideways, between roughly 
$14.00 - $16.00. That effort seems to have failed today--
miserably--with the stock dropping nearly 5% in the absence of 
any news. We are interested in shorting it because of its current 
technical weakness and because we believe that the price of crude 
oil is on the verge of a sharp drop, perhaps from the current 
$25.00 range to something near $21.00 over the next couple of 
weeks. 

We will enter a short position once SFY has traded below today's 
low of $13.70. Once this short play is triggered, we will use a 
very, very tight stop. Why? Technically, we think that SFY's 
price should simply collapse lower without any meaningful 
rebound. If this scenario does not occur, though, we will have to 
acknowledge that reversal in price is possible and we do not want 
to be short under such circumstances. With this in mind, our buy 
stop will be just above near-term resistance at $14.26. Our 
short-term price target is $12.15, which represents the 161% 
retracement of the Feb. 20th - April 2nd advance. From a 
reward/risk perspective, we are risking a 4% loss in the hope of 
receiving a fairly quick 11% gain (at a minimum), providing a 
nice reward/risk ratio of just about 3:1.

- Most Recent Update: June 7th, 2002 -

We didn't have to wait long to get triggered in SFY. The stock 
quickly fell below our action point at $13.69 this morning, 
activating this short play with a stop at $14.27. Unfortunately 
the bearishness was short-lived. Of all the sectors that we 
monitor, the OSX (Oil Service Index) posted the largest gain. SFY 
mirrored the sector action and rose steadily for most of the 
session, ultimately finishing with a gain of 2.4%. Not a bad 
rally...but is it sustainable? We doubt it. The trend in SFY is 
still decidedly bearish, with the stock setting a new multi-year 
low today and the MACD about to produce a bearish crossover. 
Keeping in mind that our profit-target is at $12.15, traders can 
consider new entries on a move below the $14.00 level or today's 
low of $13.55.


- Play-of-the-Day Comments: June 10th, 2002 -

As outlined by Brian Barger in tonight's Market Wrap, the near-
term outlook for oil stocks is not looking bullish.  Crude 
futures (cl02n) have been trending lower for more than two weeks.  
At this rate, it's just a matter of time before oil falls under 
its April lows of $23.30/barrel.  SFY has been moving lower with 
the sector and dropped another 4.2% on Monday.  Although the 
stock looks near-term oversold, there is little in the way of 
historical support to prevent it from falling to the $12 level.  
Furthermore, shares are trading at new 52-week lows and the MACD 
is beginning to curl lower.  If the bears really start running 
amok in the oil sector, we wouldn't be surprised to see SFY test 
the $10 level.  New entries can be considered on a move below 
today's low of $13.38, but keep those stops tight!  Getting 
caught in a short-covering rally is about as much fun as 
receiving a knockout punch from Lennox Lewis.

Picked on June 7th at $13.69
Gain since picked:     +0.25
Earnings Date       05/01/02 (confirmed)






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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Monday 06-10-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/f10b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Closed Bearish Plays:  CMCSK

Active Trader Non-Tech Stocks
  Play Comments:         THC (bullish)
  Triggered Plays:       FO (bearish)
  Closed Bullish Plays:  DCX, RJR

High Risk/Reward
  Triggered Plays:       TSCO (bullish) 
  Closed Bearish Plays:  INMT

Long-term Plays
  Bullish Play Updates:  SAFC, UHS 

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Comcast Corp - CMCSK - cls: 24.22 chg: -1.13 stop: 26.27

CMCSK continued lower today in predictable fashion, losing 4.4% 
en route to yet another 52-week low.  The stock also hit our 
profit target of $24.30, which was established in the most recent 
update.  This closed our play for a gain of 12.8%.  Not a bad 
one-week move!  We're content to close out this play for a 
double-digit gain, but how much downside does CMCSK have left?  
It's tough to say.  Although it looks like the stock will test 
the low end of its descending channel near $22.50, a sudden 
short-covering rally could be ignited by any piece of good news 
in the cable sector.  On the other hand, it's possible the CMCSK 
could crash though the bottom of its channel and test the $20 
level...Especially if fellow cable providers COX and CHTR 
continue to freefall.  With this in mind, aggressive traders may 
want to short CMCSK on a move below today's low of $23.91.

Picked on June 3rd at 27.89
Gain since picked:    +3.59
Earnings Date      05/01/02 (confirmed)






=================================================================
Active Trader/Non-tech Stocks (AT) section
=================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
=============== 

Play Comments
------------- 

Tenet Healthcare - THC - cls: 76.09 chg: +1.27 stop: 71.72

THC traded to a new all-time high of $76.50 today.  That alone is 
good news for this play, but it's what happened after the market 
closed that could really get shares moving to the upside.  The 
company announced that it expects to "comfortably exceed" analyst 
expectations for both Q4 and the full year, based on cost cutting 
and debt reduction measures.  THC doesn't trade in after-hours, 
but we're definitely anticipating a good-sized gap higher on this 
news.  This should put our original profit-target at the $80 
level within reach.  Insofar as an "official" price target, we're 
going to wait to see how things play out tomorrow.  Today's news 
creates the possibility that THC may rise well over $80.00.  


 

Triggered Short Plays
---------------------

Fortune Brands - FO - close: 52.49 change: +0.41 stop: 55.17

Our short play in FO was triggered at the opening price of $51.83 
this morning after the stock gapped below our action point at 
$52.05.  Although shares quickly rallied back above the $52 
level, the 50-dma at $53.14 was never in danger of being 
violated.  Aggressive traders could target new entries on a 
rollover from this level, while others may want to wait for a 
move below today's low of $51.75.  Remember that our stop is set 
at $55.17.





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

DaimlerChrysler - DCX - cls: 46.70 chg: -0.84 stop: 46.72

Although we were hoping that Friday's bounce from the 50-dma 
would signal the beginning of another leg higher for DCX, the 
bears had other ideas.  The stock was weak from the get-go this 
morning and violated our stop at $46.72 within the first half-
hour of trading.  This closed our play for a gain of 22 cents.   
If the recent selloff in GM is any indication, DCX may suffer 
more selling in the near future.  With shares now under the 50-
dma ($47.02), we would not be looking for new entries at current 
levels.

Picked on May 6th at $46.50 
Gain since picked:    +0.22
Earnings Date      02/20/02 (confirmed)
 

 

--- 

RJ Reynolds - RJR - close: 68.02 change: -0.52 stop: 67.94

Based on the bearish MACD and daily stochastics, we were somewhat 
suspicious of Friday's bounce from the 50-dma.  Sure enough, RJR 
broke under that level ($68.29) today and briefly fell under 
$68.00.  The stock violated our stop-loss at $67.94, which closed 
this play for a loss of 3.4%.  This dip may eventually prove to 
be a bear trap (much like the dip in mid-May), but with RJR 
closing under the 50-dma and MACD looking bearish, we would not 
advise taking any long positions at these levels.

Picked on May 30th at $70.34
Change since picked:   -2.40
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
=============== 

Triggered Short Plays
---------------------

Tractor Supply - TSCO - close: 61.70 change: +2.15 stop: 54.15

The positive momentum TSCO displayed on Friday carried over to 
today's session, with shares adding 3.6% and setting an all-time 
high of $62.79.  The stock gapped above our trigger at $60.21, so 
we entered this play as of the opening trade at $61.25.  Our 
stop-loss is located at $54.15.





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Intermet Corp. - INMT - cls: 9.70 chg: +0.65 stop: 9.61

INMT gapped up this morning and quickly eclipsed our stop at 
$9.61, thus closing our short play for a loss of 13 cents.  
Although we couldn't find any news to explain the early-session 
strength, the company did announced this afternoon that it had 
sold $175M in seven-year notes.  Shares remained strong all day 
and finished near the highs of sessions.  Although INMT has 
managed a decent bounce from the Friday low, it still faces 
psychological resistance at $10.00, just above the 50-dma 
($9.98).  Bears should be watching for a failed rally at this 
level.  However, be aware that the daily stochastics (5,3,3) are 
bullishly emerging from the oversold region.

Picked on June 6th at $9.48 
Gain since picked:    -0.13
Earnings Date      04/11/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
LONG-TERM PLAYS (LT) section
==================================================================

===============
LT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

SAFECO Corp. - SAFC - close: 31.40 change: -0.12 stop: 29.94

Financial & Insurance company SAFECO announced last week that 
it's seeing a substantial increase in new business for its new 
auto insurance product.  New policy sales are up over 40% in the 
states in which the product was initially presented:  Arizona, 
Utah and South Carolina.  With the auto insurance product now 
being introduced in Connecticut, Kansas, Indiana, Idaho and 
Wisconsin, SAFECO is optimistic it will experience similar 
results in these states as well.  The new product has doubled 
SAFECO's reach into the auto insurance market.  The company has a 
long-term goal of becoming a top-five national writer of auto 
insurance.

Our time horizon on this trade is three to six months to achieve 
our price target(s) of $36.00 to $38.00. Short-term, the stock 
has been in a consolidation and it will be important that it 
holds support in the $30.50 - $31.00 region; a decline below this 
would obviously put pressure on our sell stop.  Conservative 
traders may want to wait for SAFC to close above the 50-dma, 
which presently sits at $32.65, before engaging new long 
positions in SAFC.

Picked on May 31st at $31.99 
Gain since picked:    -0.59
Earnings Date      04/22/02 (confirmed)




---

Universal Health - UHS - cls: 49.70 chg: -0.19 stop: 43.48 

The HMO Index, and our hospital stock, Universal Health, have 
each experienced sharp rallies in the last few weeks. UHS has 
moved from a short-term low of $42.57 on May 14th to today's high 
of $50.65.  Today's trading brought USH above its 127% 
retracement of its April 29th  -  May 14th decline, before UHS 
reversed on the day.  Even with today's reversal, we think that 
the stock is likely to move on up to the higher 161.8% 
retracement ($52.25) in the next 1-2 weeks before the stock takes 
another meaningful rest.  If we're right, UHS could dip 1.5% to 
about $49.00 in the next few days before finishing its advance to 
the 161.8% levels.  After the close today, Tenet Healthcare (THC) 
upped it guidance fore the current quarter, and this should 
provide this stock with a good rally in Tuesday's trading.  Since 
THC is in the same sector as UHS, this news could give UHS the 
steam it needs to quickly move towards the $52.25 level.

Traders targeting new entries need to be aware that--if UHS is 
able to gap up tomorrow on the heels of THC's news--much of the 
remaining gains (up to the $52.25 level) may be taken before a 
new long position can be initiated.  Traders would want to keep a 
close stop on such a position, since there is a very good chance 
that UHS will stall once it reaches the $52.00+ area.

Picked on April 19th at $46.60
Gain since picked:       +3.10
Earnings Date         04/18/02 (confirmed)





==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

PKX     Posco                      30.30     +1.22
GLH     Gallaher Group             38.70     +1.00
VIP     Vimpel Communications      27.80     +0.80
TRBS    Texas Regional Bancshares  46.66     +0.67
NX      Quanex Corp                39.62     +0.77
JOUT    Johnson Outdoors Inc       19.78     +1.57

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CREE    Cree Inc                   12.67     +1.67
NNDS    NDS Group                  13.80     +2.63
BUCA    Buca Inc                   19.81     +1.58
RDEN    Elizabeth Arden Inc        16.23     +1.28
SSSW    Silverstream Software       8.90     +3.76

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UPS     United Parcel Service      62.38     +1.01
ABC     AmerisourceBergen Corp     81.11     +2.47
MGG     MGM Mirage Inc             37.14     +1.03
PDCO    Patterson Dental           52.41     +2.20
TSCO    Tractor Supply Co          61.70     +2.15
DKWD    D&K Healthcare             37.90     +1.90
CPKI    California Pizza Kitchen   25.94     +1.96

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CMCSK   Comcast Special Stock      24.22     -1.13
USAI    USA Interactive            23.96     -1.69
DHR     Danaher Corp               66.46     -3.10
SPW     SPX Corp                  123.40     -6.86
ALFA    ALFA Corp                  24.87     -2.07
ASA     ASA Ltd                    32.25     -2.50

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

.. none..	



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