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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 06/12/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter              Wednesday 06-12-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Short Term Market Techincals Turn Positive
Watch List:       CREE, HIT, NVDA, WEN, and more...
Play of the Day:  Bears Better Beware


*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************       
 06-12-2002        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9617.71 +100.45  9624.77  9449.98 3324 mln   1615/1590
NASDAQ   1519.12 + 21.94  1519.16  1474.56 2055 mln   1559/1922
S&P 100   507.02 +  6.32   507.98   496.57   totals   3174/3512
S&P 500  1020.26 +  6.66  1021.85  1002.58
RUS 2000  462.99 +  0.21   464.03   457.41
DJ TRANS 2706.72 +  0.15  2710.12  2671.58
VIX        27.01 -  0.71    29.34    26.98
VIXN       52.86 -  1.41    54.92    52.86
Put/Call Ratio      0.99
*******************************************************************


===========
Market Wrap
===========

SHORT TERM MARKET TECHNICALS TURN POSITIVE
Although I remain longer term cautious on the market, today's 
action suggests a vigorous short-term rebound is probable.

I'm still cautious--bearish--when I look out over the rest of 
this summer.  Short-term, though, throw me into the bull camp.

In recent Market Wraps I've been a bit dogmatic in my view that 
the Dow was likely to see 9250 before it saw anything above 9900. 
While that still may be the case--and while I remain very 
cautious on this market--today's action has all the ingredients 
for giving us a sharp rebound in coming days.  The Dow finished 
today at 9617; while we could dip back to the 9500-9550 level 
tomorrow, it now appears that the Dow now has the technical 
support it needs to rebound to either 9800 or 10,000+- over the 
next several days.  The NASDAQ Composite is less healthy, but it 
too could begin moving higher in coming days.

Adjusting The Stops On Our Short Stock Plays:

My short-term market perspective has demanded that we make a 
number of adjustments on our plays.  If you follow our play list, 
one of the things you'll see in tonight's updates is this:  we've 
significantly tightened stops on nearly all of our short 
positions.  Why have I elected to make our stops so tight that 
they almost ensure we'll be stopped out in the course of a 
rebound? If the market rebounds as we think it might in coming 
days, this rebound should be strong enough to wipe out the 
attractive gains we've accumulated unless--we greatly tighten 
stops now. If we do not do this, then we risk losing most of 
these well-earned gains, or worse: turning profits into losses.  

Naturally, if we do get bounced out of many of our short trades, 
we'll want to re-establish these (or similar shorts) once a 
short-term market rebound has run its course.  I know that this 
kind of frenzied trading activity can sometimes leave readers 
questioning my methods--if not my sanity.  But the bottom line 
for me is that we must help our readers 1) protect profits and 2) 
help ensure that existing gains do not become losses.  I guess 
this is just a long way of saying that we apologize if our play 
list changes frequently in coming days.  Our only purpose is to 
help our readers navigate the wild market oscillations that are 
likely over the next week or two.


Today's Market:  

We had a pile of stock-related news today, but in the end most of 
it did not matter.  The only things that seemed to matter, and 
meaningfully influenced the market, were late afternoon rumors 
that Microsoft was going to preannounce to the upside.  While 
this is just a rumor, it resulted in serious technical 
improvement in the Dow, as well as the SPX and NASDAQ Composite.

On the day, the Dow advanced 100 points to 9617 after hitting an 
intraday low of 9450, the Dow's lowest level since Nov. 2001.  
The SPX worked higher in a more sluggish fashion, adding about 7 
to close at 1020.  Technically, it is weaker than the Dow.  The 
NASDAQ Composite hit its lowest level since the end of Sept. 
2001, when it established a 1475 intraday low.  But it, too, 
rallied on the heals of the MSFT rumor, finishing up 22 points at 
1519.

Regardless of how true the rumor about MSFT, one thing is true:  
MSFT is now presenting a technical breakout that should benefit 
both the Dow and tech stocks in general.  The stock not only 
broke out of a two-month reverse head and shoulders bottoming 
formation; its RSI also broke out above resistance for the first 
time in months (see chart below).  

It is quite possible that MSFT's technical strength will be the 
single element to help the larger market enjoy a spirited rebound 
over the next 1-2 weeks before more weakness sets in (see 
discussion below). 

DAILY PRICE CHART OF MICROSOFT (MSFT)




There was obviously other news today than just that associated 
with Microsoft.  Here's a run down of the more significant items 
from today:

1.	Late in the afternoon the Federal Reserve released its "Beige Book" 
    of business conditions in different regions of the US.  It implied 
    that economic growth remained moderate, with quiet labor markets 
    and flat retail sales.  The market barely gave the report any attention.

2.	Grocery store chains were whacked hard today when Safeway (SWY) lowered 
    its earnings guidance for all of 2002.  Merrill leapt to its feet to 
    downgrade competitor Albertson, and the plunge was on for grocery stocks. 
    Our long play in Winn Dixie (WIN) was pounded by the turbulence, and we 
    were stopped out of this position.  Other stocks hurt in addition to Safeway
   (SWY), Albertsons (ABS) and Winn Dixie (WIN) included Kroger (KR), Great Atlantic
   (GAP) and health food grocer Whole Foods (WFMI).  After the market closed,
    though, Kroger upped guidance and Albertsons reaffirmed guidance for the 
    upcoming quarter.  This may ease some of today's pain when trading opens 
    on Thursday.

3.	Motorola (MOT) said that it expects to meet or exceed its June quarter 
    earnings estimates.  The news seemed to help many stocks in similar 
    technology sectors.  Intel closed up sharply today--finally--after 
    hitting a low of $20.00.  Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was upgraded 
    by Prudential; Motorola competitor Nokia (NOK) was upgraded by Dresdner.  
    After trading ended, Microchip technology (MCHP) spoke up, saying it too 
    expects higher earnings in the current quarter.

4.	Proctor and Gamble (PG) spiked higher by $4.00, to $93.00, after it 
    issued guidance saying that it expects higher EPS growth for its June quarter.

Lastly, the soap opera report of the day involved ImClone's 
chairman who was arrested at his home this morning by federal 
prosecutors; he was charged with insider trading.  Investors 
seemed to be immune to this kind of stuff now, shrugging off one 
more gross impropriety by a corporate CEO.

Getting Ready For Thursday, June 13th.

Thursday will not see the release of any influential economic 
reports; these will come on Friday, when a series of potentially 
market-moving reports are released:  Industrial Production, 
Capacity Utilization, Business Inventories and Consumer 
Sentiment. 

What we are likely to see, though, is some good old-fashioned, 
wide-eyed market volatility.  While I think many of the major 
indexes have now found short-term bottoms, the indexes may still 
dip a bit more before trying to snap higher on Thursday or 
Friday.  In the section below, I discuss how several of the 
indexes are likely to behave.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) Closed at 9617: Today's 
reversal in the Dow seems to have represented the point at which 
a fairly good rebound can commence.  Over the next few weeks, it 
still appears that the Dow will go down to the 9150-9200 region--
at least.  For the time being, though, a rebound up to either the 
9800 level or the 10,000 region seems fairly likely.  The lower 
level represents both a logical resistance region as well as the 
38.2% retracement (of the May 17 - June 12 decline).  Sharp 
declines, like that experienced by the Dow since May 17th when it 
peaked at 10353, will sometimes only rebound to the 38.2% level.  
The 10,000 region represents both the more frequent 61.8% 
retracement as well as the general region of the 50-dma.  

Why do I think a rebound to 9800-10,000 is ready to occur now?  
The daily chart below illustrates two key reasons for my short-
term view:

1.	The Dow traded right Down to the 161% retracement of its previous
    advance and 
2.  Today's reversal pushed the RSI above its declining 
    trend line.  Because the RSI is a leading--not coincident--indicator,
    it suggests that the same trend line break will be forthcoming
    for Dow itself. 
3.  Today's lower low in the Dow was not accompanied by a lower low 
    in the RSI.  This "Bullish RSI Divergence" frequently portends 
    sharp rebounds.

It is quite possible that the Dow will attempt to make one more dip to 
its lower Bollinger Band, at about 9500, before fully starting its rebound.

DAILY PRICE CHART OF DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE




S&P 500 (SPX) Closed at 1020  The SPX has produced a daily chart 
that is a bit less orderly than the Dow.  Today's low actually 
overshot the 161.8% retracement, but it was close enough that it 
appears to be following the same reversal pattern established by 
the Dow (see chart below).  Although I remain longer term bearish 
on the SPX, I think the index is likely to rebound to either 1050 
or 1070 before it turns downward again; this rebound should 
commence in the next day or two, and run for perhaps a week, 
maybe a bit more.  Later this summer a decline to the 910 level 
still looks likely.      

DAILY PRICE CHART OF THE S&P 500 (SPX)





Nasdaq Composite (COMPX) Closed at 1519: Until I see something 
that changes my mind, I remain of the opinion that the COMPX is 
headed for the 1240 region later this summer.  Over the next week 
or two, though, the index is flashing signals that it wants to 
rebound along with the Dow.  

The daily chart below illustrates the reasons for my positive 
short-term view even though today's reversal occurred a bit below 
a key retracement level.  I always become a bit cautious when I 
see a key retracement level fractured like this one, because it 
suggests to me that the index may still have enough weakness to 
take it down to the next level.  But I am banking on two things 
here. First, that the Dow--which is technically more prepared for 
a good rebound--will drag the COMPX along with it.  Second, the 
RSI looks like it is begging to break above its resistance line--
and this is almost always a positive development.

During Thursday's trading don't be surprised if the COMPX starts
 the day a bit weak, or even retests it lower Bollinger Band (5-
dma, 1.7-sd).  It may need to do this before it is technically 
ready to advance.  As noted on the chart, there is a slight 
possibility that the index could go to the lower 161.8% 
retracement--which sits at about 1450--before its rebound starts.

DAILY PRICE CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE (COMPX)




The Semiconductor Index (SOX) Closed at 434:   After being 
thrashed in recent weeks, the SOX seems ready for a rebound along 
with the rest of the indexes.  The chart is similar to the NASDAQ 
Composite above, and needs little explanation.  Unlike the COMPX, 
though, the RSI for the SOX has broken above its resistance line, 
suggesting that this sector will lead a rebound in the NASDAQ.  
The SOX should be capable of rebounding to either the 475 or 505 
level before more selling sets in.  

DAILY PRICE CHART OF SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX (SOX)



The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) Closed at 457:   I still think the 
RUT will decline to 433, or lower, once the rebounds in the other 
averages have run their course, and they start downward again. I 
can only assume that the RUT will follow the Dow and COMPX as 
they rebound.  Right now it appears that the RUT should be able 
to reach either the 480 or 494 regions before turning back down.


Siegfried Brian Barger, 
Editor   



==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Cree Inc. - CREE - close: 12.99 change: +1.09

WHAT TO WATCH: Cree has been forming a bottom since April. Within 
the last three days, though, the stock has begun to lift off this 
bottom, doing so on a surge of volume.  Additionally, we have now 
started to see CREE close above its 50-dma.  Add to this that 
CREE 1) raised it guidance two days ago, 2) was upgraded by 
Prudential to a buy on Monday and 3) may be at the right place at 
the right time as the NASDAQ Composite attempts a sharp rebound--
well you get the picture.  We think it could make an attractive 
long play.  We'd probably go long above today's high of $13.00, 
using a sell stop under today's low ($11.55).  There is a wide 
range between these two values, so it would be best if traders 
took smaller, rather than larger, positions.




---

Hitachi Ltd - HIT - close: 67.50 change: -1.00

WHAT TO WATCH: We were really tempted to add HIT as a short play 
tonight, but darn it...The volume is just too low!  The ADR 
trades on an average daily volume of just 35K, which is well 
under our minimum volume for adding plays.  But this doesn't mean 
it's not a good short candidate for aggressive traders willing to 
trade a lower-volume stock.  In last weekend's Watch List we 
talked about Hitachi's reliable support at the 100-dma ($69.34).  
That support level was abandoned this week, and the stock is now 
trading in a "fast-move" region between $60-$68.  In other words, 
we expect shares to rapidly decline, mirroring the sharp gains in 
late-February/early-March.  Our bearish outlook is furthered by 
today's violation of the ascending p-n-f support at $68.  Entries 
can be considered on a failed rally at $68.00-$69.00 or on a 
break below today's low of $66.62.


 

---

NVIDIA Corp - NVDA - close: 27.95 change: -2.64

WHAT TO WATCH: NVDA was spanked for an 8.6% loss today after RBC 
Capital downgraded the stock.  The firm believes that recent 
trade show and channel checks lend themselves to a cautious near-
term view.  In other words, they're not anticipating a whole lot 
of demand for NVDA's chips in the near future.  Time will tell 
whether this is really the case, but there's no disputing the 
technical weakness of the company's stock.  Shares have fallen to 
multi-month lows and appear to be headed for a retest of the 
September lows near $23.  Today's move created a double-bottom p-
n-f sell signal and came on strong volume of nearly twice the 
daily average.  The downtrending MACD and daily stochastics also 
portend more selling in the near-term.  Traders can consider 
bearish positions on a failed rally to the $30 level or a move 
under today's low of $26.67.




--- 

Wendy's Intl - WEN - close: 40.05 change: +0.87

WHAT TO WATCH: Shareholders of WEN have enjoyed a tasty breakout 
this week.  After an extended consolidation period under $38, WEN 
shot above that level on Monday after the company announced its 
May same-store sales rose by 7.1%.  The good news carried over 
through the past two sessions and propelled shares above the $40 
level.  Buying interest has been steadily increasing, with 
today's gain coming on the second strongest volume reading of the 
year.  Although aggressive entries could be considered on a 
continued rally above $40.00, those with a longer-term strategy 
should watch for a pullback to the $38 level.   




=============
MORE TO WATCH
============= 

Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 16.68 change: -0.14

F isn't exactly the strongest auto stock out there, but the 
recent pullback has offered short-term investors with a nice 
risk/reward setup.  Long positions could be taken at current 
levels with a stop beneath the 50-dma at $16.35.  With the 200-
dma just above this level, it'll take a real bearish conviction 
to push the stock much lower.  We'd be looking for a near-term 
move to the May highs near $18.




--- 

Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 55.90 change: -0.10

Unlike the broader market, FDX has been uptrending for more than 
a week and is trading close to near-term highs.  The p-n-f chart 
is also signaling a double-top buy signal.  Entries can be 
considered at current levels or on a pullback to the ($53.56), 
but be aware of possible resistance at the $58 level.


 

---  

Procter & Gamble - PG - close: 93.00 change: +4.00

PG enthusiastically bounced from the bottom of its ascending 
channel.  Shares moved higher by 4.5% today, thanks to the 
company's raised Q4 guidance.  The bullish MACD crossover and 
rising daily stochastics suggest a near-term move to the $100 
level.  Possible action points to go long include a continued 
rally over $93.00 or a pullback to the $91.00 region.


 

---

PacifiCare Health Systems - PHSY - close: 27.70 change: +0.67

If you'd like to see a near-perfect triangle, that seems ready to 
break out, this is the price chart to see.  PHSY looks like it 
could enjoy a sharp (though perhaps short) advance once it moves 
above $28.25.




---

Supervalu Inc - SVU - close: 28.32 change: -1.47

SVU's lazy sideways trading pattern was rudely interrupted today 
after MER cut its rating on several grocery stocks and SWY 
announced an earnings warning.  The 5% decline came on strong 
volume and there is little in the way of support until the $26 
area.  If level gives way a test of the 200-dma ($24.48) wouldn't 
be out of the question.  Target possible shorts below today's low 
of $27.80.  Note that SVU is usually a pretty slow mover and thus 
better suited to longer-term plays.






===============
Play-of-the-Day  (New high-risk/reward BULLISH play)
===============

Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 21.58 change: +1.36 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Intel, the world's largest chipmaker, is also a leading 
manufacturer of computer, networking and communications products. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
This long play is based on the premise that today's afternoon 
rally in the broader markets will carry over into the next few 
sessions.  If it does, we think INTC is well positioned to lead 
the tech sector higher.  "Say what?!", you may be saying.  
"You're bullish on INTC less than a week after the company 
lowered its revenue guidance?"  Yes we are.  But let us qualify 
that statement.  We're bullish on a short-term technical basis.  
We couldn't give two chips how the fundamentals are or where the 
stock will be trading in a few months.  What we're looking for is 
a quick rally that will have INTC filling in a large chunk of the 
June 7th gap.  The stock is looking oversold, as gauged by both 
the daily and weekly stochastics.  Today's action was encouraging 
for the bulls as well, with the stock bouncing exactly at $20.00 
and staging an impressive reversal.  If INTC starts filling its 
gap the short-covering rally could be fast and furious.  However, 
because we'd like to see the stock actually move into this region 
before entering the play, we won't go long until shares trade at 
or above $22.77.  Take note that we WILL NOT enter the play if 
INTC gaps above $23.00.  We don't want to get caught in a 
situation where our entry point is somewhere in the middle of the 
gap.  Our initial profit target will be at the $26.00 level, 
although we might re-evaluate that strategy if shares falter 
near $25.00.  If the play is triggered we'll manage our risk with 
a relatively tight stop at $21.69, just below the June 7th low. 

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       10/15/02 (unconfirmed)
 





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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 06-12-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/f12b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Stop Adjustments:      BLDP, CLS, TEK (bearish)
  Triggered Plays:       IBM (bearish)

Active Trader Non-Tech Stocks
  Stop Adjustments:      DHR, FO, BSTE (bearish)
  Triggered Plays:       MYG (bearish)
  Closed Bullish Plays:  WIN

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     INTC
  Stop Adjustments:      DOX, SFY (bearish)
  Closed Bullish Plays:  TSCO

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
=============== 

Stop Adjustments
---------------- 

Ballard Power - BLDP - cls: 17.11 chg: -1.47 stop: 17.69 *new*

BDLP was slammed for a loss of nearly 8% today.  We weren't able 
to find any news to explain the heavy selling, but bulls may have 
been throwing in the towel after Monday's failed rally at the $20 
level.  Tonight we're going to move our stop to $17.69, two cents 
above the stock's afternoon high.  This should protect a gain of 
7.8% from our original entry point.  We're also going to bump up 
our official profit target to $15.21, a couple of dimes above 
where we think shorts will attempt to cover and bulls may feel 
tempted to buy the dip at support ($15).  At this rate we 
wouldn't be surprised to see shares reach that level within the 
next 2-3 sessions. Please be sure to see our discussion of our 
lowered stop levels in tonight's "Market Wrap" section.


 

---

Celestica - CLS - cls: 25.75 chg: -0.11 stop: 25.92 *new*

CLS has been an excellent short for us.  Because we now believe 
there is a risk of a sharp market rebound, we've decided to 
really tighten our buy stop on this short position.  We'll now 
use $25.92--a level just above CLS's high of today's final hour 
of trading--as our new stop. Please be sure to see our discussion 
of our lowered stop levels in tonight's "Market Wrap" section.




---

Tektronix - TEK - cls: 19.29 chg: +0.44 stop: 19.56 *new*

Keeping with our theme of ratcheting down our buy stops to 
protect our gains, and our selves from losses, TEK has a new stop 
at $19.56, just a penny above today's high.  Please be sure to 
see our discussion of our lowered stop levels in tonight's 
"Market Wrap" section.





Triggered Short Plays
--------------------- 

Intl Business Mach - IBM - cls: 74.65 chg: -0.84 stop: 81.01*new*

Moving in accordance with its recent trend, IBM drifted lower on 
Wednesday and set another multi-year low.  This play was 
triggered when shares hit our action point at $74.94.  Although 
our stop-loss is currently set at $81.01, a continued decline 
would probably lead us to move our stops down to just above the 
$80 level.

On a related note, we erroneously reported in the original update 
that IBM is a component of both the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100.  
This is true of INTC and MSFT, but not IBM.  Heck...IBM doesn't 
even have four letters!  Our apologies for any confusion this may 
have caused.






=================================================================
Active Trader/Non-tech Stocks (AT) section
=================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
=============== 

Stop Adjustments
---------------- 

Danaher Corp. - DHR - cls: 64.45 chg: -1.44 stop: 65.15 *new*

DHR lost another 2.1% today and is quickly approaching the 200-
dma.  At this time we're going to slightly adjust our profit-
target to $62.84, which reflects the rising action of this moving 
average.  Although the recent trend suggests a test of this 
level, we're going to protect some of our gains by moving our 
stop to $65.15, just above an intraday resistance region.  This 
would represent a move of 5.8% from our entry point. Please be 
sure to see our discussion of our lowered stop levels in 
tonight's "Market Wrap" section.


 

---

Fortune Brands - FO - cls: 52.50 chg: +0.4 stop: 53.32 *new*

We've placed FO's new buy stop just above its 50-dma, declining 
upper Bollinger Band and today's high.  It is now at $53.32.  If 
this stop is hit, we'll exit the trade with about a 3% loss.  
Please be sure to see our discussion of our lowered stop levels 
in tonight's "Market Wrap" section.




----

Biosite - BSTE - cls: 25.02 chg: -0.50 stop: 25.20 *new*

BSTE has been given a new buy stop at $25.20.  This is a very 
tight buy stop, just above an intraday shelf of resistance formed 
during today's trading.  If we are stopped out at this level, 
we'll nonetheless be able to protect about a 4% gain in this 
position.  Please be sure to see our discussion of our lowered 
stop levels in tonight's "Market Wrap" section.





Triggered Short Plays
--------------------- 

Maytag Corp - MYG - close: 45.27 change: +2.97 stop: 48.11

Our criteria for shorting MYG - an opening price between $44.50-
$44.75 - was met this morning when the stock opened at $44.50.  
This activated our short play with a stop at $48.11.  Although 
shares traded over the $46 level on an intraday basis, the bulls 
couldn't muster a close above the 50-dma at $45.49.  The shares 
continue to have considerable resistance in the $45.50 - $47.50 
region.  





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Winn Dixie Stores - WIN - cls: 17.64 chg: -0.65 stop: 17.84

Well, that was unexpected. WIN gapped sharply lower this morning, 
opening under both the 50-dma and our stop-loss at $17.84.  The 
play was closed at the opening trade of $17.20, which represents 
a loss of 7.9% from our entry point.  Pressuring the stock was a 
downgrade from MER and earnings warning from SWY.  Needless to 
say, it wasn't the best day to be long in a grocery stock.  With 
WIN now firmly under its 50-dma, we would not be looking to buy 
this dip.

Picked on June 7th at $18.69
Change since picked:   -1.49
Earnings Date       04/25/02 (confirmed) 






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=============
HR New Plays
=============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 21.58 change: +1.36 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Intel, the world's largest chipmaker, is also a leading 
manufacturer of computer, networking and communications products. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
This long play is based on the premise that today's afternoon 
rally in the broader markets will carry over into the next few 
sessions.  If it does, we think INTC is well positioned to lead 
the tech sector higher.  "Say what?!", you may be saying.  
"You're bullish on INTC less than a week after the company 
lowered its revenue guidance?"  Yes we are.  But let us qualify 
that statement.  We're bullish on a short-term technical basis.  
We couldn't give two chips how the fundamentals are or where the 
stock will be trading in a few months.  What we're looking for is 
a quick rally that will have INTC filling in a large chunk of the 
June 7th gap.  The stock is looking oversold, as gauged by both 
the daily and weekly stochastics.  Today's action was encouraging 
for the bulls as well, with the stock bouncing exactly at $20.00 
and staging an impressive reversal.  If INTC starts filling its 
gap the short-covering rally could be fast and furious.  However, 
because we'd like to see the stock actually move into this region 
before entering the play, we won't go long until shares trade at 
or above $22.77.  Take note that we WILL NOT enter the play if 
INTC gaps above $23.00.  We don't want to get caught in a 
situation where our entry point is somewhere in the middle of the 
gap.  Our initial profit target will be at the $26.00 level, 
although we might re-evaluate that strategy if shares faltered 
near $25.00.  If the play is triggered we'll manage our risk with 
a relatively tight stop at $21.69, just below the June 7th low. 

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       10/15/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
HR Play Updates
=============== 

Stop Adjustments
----------------

Amdocs Ltd - DOX - close: 16.26 change: -0.64 stop: 16.44 *new*

It looks like Monday's accounting questions finally caught up 
with DOX.  The stock dropped 3.7% today and set a new multi-year 
low of $15.81 before moving higher into the close.  Due to the 
continued decline--and the possibility of a market snap-back 
later this week--we're going to move our stop down to a very, 
very tight level:  $16.44, which is just above today's intraday 
resistance level.  We're also going to set an official exit price 
of $15.26.  DOX will be closed if shares trade at or below that 
level. Please be sure to see our discussion of our lowered stop 
levels in tonight's "Market Wrap" section.




---

Swift Energy - SFY - close: 13.89 change: +.44 stop: 13.90 *new*

This trade has been both disappointing and slow moving.  We 
shorted SFY at $13.69, and since then we've been faced with a 
slow mover.  We've set our new stop just a penny above today's 
close; SFY will either begin tomorrow lower, or we'll be stopped 
out with a modest 1.5% loss.





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Tractor Supply - TSCO - cls: 66.88 chg: +0.11 stop: 66.29

In last night's update we tightened our stop to $66.29 to protect 
some of Monday's substantial gains.  Shares briefly spiked under 
this level in early-morning trading, closing out TSCO for a gain 
of 8.2%.  Not too bad for two days' work.  Traders who elected to 
keep a looser stop and are still long on TSCO should now be 
challenging the stock with a very tight stop-loss.  Don't get 
greedy!  The stock has gained nearly 20% in just four sessions 
and looks ripe for a pullback.

Picked on June 10th at 61.25
Change since picked:   +5.04
Earnings Date       07/15/02 (confirmed)
 





==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

FDP     Fresh Del Monte Produce    24.95     +0.59

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CREE    CREE Inc                   12.99     +1.09
HVT     Haverty Furniture          19.15     +2.49

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

PG      Procter & Gamble Co        93.00     +4.00
MSFT    Microsoft Corp             55.54     +2.97
QCOM    QUALCOMM                   33.00     +1.69
CCE     Coca-Cola Enterprises      22.08     +1.13
MCO     Moody's Corp               49.80     +2.16
JBHT    JB Hunt Transport          28.85     +1.38
NFI     Novastar Financial Inc     30.71     +1.12

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ABT     Abbott Labs                37.02     -1.28
BAX     Baxter Intl. Inc           46.60     -2.22
ADP     Automatic Data Processing  48.90     -1.77
SWY     Safeway Inc                31.76     -4.42
EDS     Electronic Data Systems    49.28     -1.72
OMC     Omnicom Group Inc          62.28    -15.28

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BNN     Brascan Corp               23.39     -0.48
ALD     Allied Capital Corp        24.52     -0.78



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