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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 06/13/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Thursday 06-13-2002
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Adobe Beats Estimates, But Trades Lower
Play-of-the-Day:  Take the Money, En-Ron
Market Sentiment: ImCloned

************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************
      06-13-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9502.80 -114.90  9625.40  9491.86 1.36 bln   1059/1895
NASDAQ   1496.86 - 22.30  1526.41  1495.64 1.54 bln   1282/2172
S&P 100   501.16 -  4.86   509.26   501.41   Totals   2341/4067
S&P 500  1009.56 - 10.70  1023.47  1008.12
RUS 2000  455.98 -  7.01   463.90   455.78
DJ TRANS 2704.82 -  1.90  2731.44  2702.78
VIX        28.73 +  1.72    28.81    27.08
VXN        54.30 +  1.44    55.81    53.51
TRIN        1.14
PUT/CALL    0.84
*************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Adobe beats estimates, but trades lower

After-hours news from various stocks are getting some rather 
bearish reactions and most likely finds some technology stocks 
under pressure tomorrow morning.  That won't be too different 
than what traders saw today as the broader market averages 
whipsawed throughout the day, only to finish lower.

After the bell, desktop software maker Adobe Systems 
(NASDAQ:ADBE) $36.19 -3% reported second quarter pro forma 
earnings of $96.4 million, or $0.27 a share, which beat consensus 
estimates of $0.25 on revenues of $317.4 million, which was also 
above consensus estimate of $312.6 million.  The company said 
GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) net income was 
for the quarter were $0.22 a share, based on 247.7 million 
weighted average shares.

Shares of Adobe traded lower at $33.75 (-6.7% from its close) in 
after-hours trading when the company said it saw Q3 revenues in 
the range of $300-$320 million, versus current consensus of 
$324.8 million, and earnings of between $0.24 and $0.27 a share 
versus consensus of $0.26.

President and CEO Bruce Chizen said, "Despite a continuing soft 
economy, we had a solid quarter with a strong release of 
Photoshop.  Strategically, we took steps to realize the large 
Acrobat opportunity in the enterprise with the closure of our 
Accelio acquisition and our new SAP relationship."

Adobe Systems Chart - Daily Interval




Adobe Systems (ADBE) is a tough stock to try and trade.  For 
whatever reason, the stock gets whipped around and can have a 
trader pulling his/her hair out.  Nonetheless, tonight's earnings 
and after-hours reaction hints that some software stocks may be 
under some selling pressure tomorrow morning.  Tonight's negative 
market reaction looks to be in response to what analysts were 
looking for in the upcoming third quarter.  The apparent 
shortfall related to analyst's revenue forecast may have analysts 
lowering some revenue forecasts for other software makers in the 
coming weeks.

Growth collapsed, so did stock

Just when a Genesis Microchip (NASDAQ:GNSS) $12.24 +2.85% bull 
thought things couldn't get any worse, they did, when the company 
reduced its Q1 revenue outlook to $41-$43 million from prior 
forecast of $60 million (consensus was for $58.1 million).  The 
flat panel display manufacturer blamed the shortfall on a recent 
drop in orders, which the company attributed to customers working 
off their inventories that were built up in anticipation of 
continued strong unit growth in the flat panel market.  The 
company believes that growth has collapsed due to sector-wide LCD 
panel manufacturing constraints, but does not believe the revenue 
shortfall was due to greater-than-expected price declines for its 
products in the quarter. 

Genesis Microchip Chart - $0.50 and $1 box




In our 09:00 EST Update on May 30th, we made mention of 
Prudential's comments prior to the market open and trading was 
heavy at the $20.12 level.  You can see from the long column of 
O's that the stock was under heavy distribution.  Tonight we find 
out why.

Stock to trade bearish

One stock I'd have a "bearish eye" on for a trade tomorrow would 
be shares of graphics processor maker NVIDIA Corporation 
(NASDAQ:NVDA) $27.66 -1.03%.  My thinking here is if things are 
"as bad" as it seems at Genesis (GNSS) and the flat panel display 
market, then things may not be that good at a graphics chip maker 
either.  The technicals seem to support that thought also.

NVIDIA Corporation - Daily Interval




Shares of NVIDIA (NVDA) are trading $27.50 in after-hours and may 
provide a short-term trade to the downside.  A trader can use the 
"inside day" trading technique to set up the trade with, using a 
break below today's low of $26.77 as a trigger for the stock to 
pick up steam to the downside.  I have had retracement on the 
above chart set at the 52-week high and a relative low dating 
back to December 2000 (52-week low was $22.66 on October 2nd).  
On Wednesday, NVDA broke to a new relative low on heavy volume.  
Tonight's news out of GNSS may be "the final straw" and provide a 
bearish trader a good trade setup in NVDA.  Yesterday, RBC 
Capital downgraded NVIDIA (NVDA) to "sector perform" from 
"outperform," citing the Taiwan Computex Computer show indicating 
that inventory levels of PC motherboards remain above seasonally 
normal levels in the channel.

Biogen volatile in after-hours

Biopharmaceutical maker Biogen (NASDAQ:BGEN) $39.44 +0.63% was 
back in the news yet again tonight and its shares were trading 
volatile in after-hours action when the company said the FDA had 
requested "clarification and information related to data Biogen 
previously submitted" on its highly anticipated Amevive drug, 
which is an application for psoriasis treatment.  

The stock originally fell as much as -6% from its closing tick as 
investors first feared the FDA news was calling for a new 
clinical trial, but once cleared up and the full press release 
was read, it turns out that the FDA was only looking for 
clarification from the previously completed study and also 
proposed post-marketing clinical studies to "further define the 
safety and effectiveness of Amevive."  Trading then found the 
stock rebounding to the $40.14 level.

10-year YIELD breaks below 4.967%

The main technical action that I witnessed in the market today 
was the benchmark 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) breaking below the 
4.967% YIELD level we had been monitoring and this is a sign that 
"bond bulls" are becoming more aggressive from the buy side, thus 
driving YIELD lower.  YIELDS across all the major maturities were 
lower today and depicts a continuing defensive posture from the 
market.

10-year YIELD chart - Daily Interval




According to TrimTabs, which monitor cash inflows and outflows 
among mutual funds, the past two weeks has seen net outflows from 
equities of $12.6 billion ($4.3 billion this past week), compared 
to net inflows to bond funds of $200 million in the latest week 
and $1.4 billion the week prior.  International equity funds have 
also seen net outflows of $900 million in the latest week, down 
slightly from net outflows of $1 billion the week earlier. 

However, this "math" doesn't necessarily equate when comparing 
stock outflows to bond fund inflows.  

This has me thinking that what might be happening is that some 
money from foreign investors cash accounts may perhaps be moving 
back to the U.S. and "parking itself" back into Treasuries near-
term.

I can't conclusively say that this is happening, but the June 
U.S. Dollar Index (dx02m) shows the U.S. $ has been firming 
against the major foreign currencies over the past week at 
111.15.  Remember, the U.S. Dollar Index (dx02m) was near 120.00 
back in March.

The main thing I think a bearish equity trader needs to be 
careful of and monitor closely is this.

In recent weeks, we've noted that some of the foreign equity 
markets have performed well versus the major U.S. market 
averages.  This may now have some foreign investors "seeking out" 
perceived value as U.S. stock prices have declined, and we could 
be seeing some cash come back to the U.S. that may have left 
earlier this spring.

Near-term, U.S. equity bears may want to keep an eye on the U.S. 
$.  Be alert for any renewed strength, that may further hint of 
U.S $ buying, which may be created as foreign currencies are 
converted/exchanged to U.S. $.

While that type of action could be hint of money coming back to 
the U.S., often times the first step is for the money to be 
"parked" in a Treasury bond, until a firm "stock purchase 
desicion" is made.

Should we see further strengthening in the U.S. $, coupled with 
selling in Treasuries (higher YIELD as a result) that could be 
the "heads up" for U.S. equity/stock markets to rebound.

Right now, YIELDS continue to fall, so it certainly appears that 
money is being parked in Treasuries, not in stocks.  It is also 
noted that the market internals as depicted by the S&P 500 
Bullish Percent ($BPSPX) from www.stockcharts.com continues to 
erode with 47.4% of the stocks now showing "buy signals" on their 
point/figure charts.  Remember, in early June, this indicator was 
at the 58% level.  

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


=========================
Play-of-the-Day           (New high-risk/reward BEARISH play)
=========================

PPL Corporation - PPL - close: 31.86 change: -1.35 stop: *text*

Company Description:  
PPL Corporation generates and sells electricity in the 
northeastern and western parts of the United States and in 
Canada.

Why We Like It:
PPL possess a 20-month topping pattern that looks suspiciously 
like a sloppy head and shoulders, with prices sitting atop the 
last bastion of support before falling off a cliff.  Normally, 
that would be enough to grab our attention and cause us to 
salivate like Pavlov's dogs. But today's news, in combination 
with sell signals on the weekly MACD, Stochastic Oscillator and 
RSI, make this an irresistible short play.  Pennsylvania energy 
regulators claimed today that PPL Corp. had unfairly manipulated 
prices in its Mid-Atlantic power market. The Pennsylvania Public 
Utilities Commission said that it has determined that the PPL's 
actions "damaged wholesale and retail markets and the public's 
confidence in them."

In an era of Enron, Williams Company, ImClone and Tyco, this is 
the kind of corporate impropriety that can be devastating to a 
stock's price.  And we'd like to profit from such devastation.

We want to short PPL on a move below $31.65, with this one 
qualification: if PPL gaps down below $30.50, we will not short 
it, preferring to wait for a more attractive entry point. Once 
the trade is triggered, we'll use an initial buy stop of $34.18.  
We think this stock is capable of falling briskly through its 
"fast move region," declining over several weeks to its next 
major support at the $24.00 region.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date        7/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 




================
Market Sentiment
================

ImCloned
By Eric Utley

Was it the Congressional hearings Thursday afternoon that tanked
the market, or the consumer?  Maybe it was a little bit of both.
It felt like Enron all over again.  The same cast of characters
were asking the questions, only a different frightened bunch of
suits were in the hot seat.  I remember back during the Enron
hearings that the market got a little jumpy just seeing those guys
on CNBC.  Could be a repeat with ImClone.

Of course the sales report from the Commerce Department this
morning kicked the day off on a sour note, which again brought
up a familiar debate: Will the consumer hold on?  I'm not smart
enough to know, but I do know that the retail sector has shown
signs of weakness over the last several weeks.

The market seems very on edge right now, and so do the major
averages.  It feels like we're on the brink of a major washout,
but I've been saying that for quite a while now.  Most oscillators
show an increasingly oversold market, but that doesn't mean it
can't grow more so.  And earnings are just not what they were
expected to be noting tonight's most recent blow ups in Adobe
and Genesis.  All of this has the making for a throw in the
towel sort of session, followed by a sustainable and tradable
rally.

There are just so very many risks to the bulls right now that
no one wants to be the first to try and buy this market.  The
political events around the world, combined with this probe
and that probe into new companies every day, and the lack of
earnings or quality earnings all mix for a recipe to avoid
stocks.  The bond market has been benefiting from these risks
to stocks as witnessed by the further upside in Treasuries
today.

All in all, the market is likely to remain on the defensive
as no discernible catalyst for a rally has emerged just yet.
At the same time, we haven't had the short term washout to
clear the path for a tradable rally.  We could get there
tomorrow, and there are some things to watch for.  For
starters, we need to see a decliners swamp advancers during
the day.  And we need a very heavy volume total on the NYSE
and NASDAQ markets, which we haven't gotten yet, not by a
long shot.  And finally, we need to see the fear gauges of
the market rise and close above key levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     :  9503

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  9662
 50-dma: 10024
200-dma:  9857

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1010

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1033
 50-dma: 1081
200-dma: 1109

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1107

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1151
 50-dma: 1266
200-dma: 1423


Oil Service ($OSX)

The OSX was the day's best performing sector.  The index traded
higher for the second consecutive session Thursday, finishing
the day better by 1.07 percent.

Leaders to the upside included Tidewater (NYSE:TDW), Baker
Hughes (NYSE:BHI), Transocean (NYSE:RIG), Cooper Cameron
(NYSE:CAM), and Nabors (NYSE:NBR).

52-week High: 126
52-week Low :  58
Current     :  97

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  98
 50-dma: 103
200-dma:  88


Disk Drive ($DDX)

The DDX, an unfamiliar name to the sector spotlight, was the
worst performing sector during Thursday's sell off.  The index
finished the day lower by 4.70 percent.

Leading the way to the downside included Read Rite (NASDA:RDRT),
Quantum (NYSE:DSS), M Systems (NASDAQ:FLASH), Sandisk
(NASDAQ:SNDK), and Maxtor (NYSE:MXO)

52-week High: 120
52-week Low :  59
Current     :  70

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 77
 50-dma: 90
200-dma: 92

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

My good buddy Mark Phillips wrote in an e-mail today that the
VIX needs to close above 30 before signaling a capitulation that
leads to a tradable short-term rally.  I don't need to say
anything more.

Make that 60 for the VXN.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 28.81 +1.80
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 54.27 +1.41

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.84        471,438       397,139
Equity Only    0.74        363,520       270,959
OEX            0.91         20,963        19,068
QQQ            0.59         28,694        16,926

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          54      - 1     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    19      + 1     Bull Correction
DOW           47      + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       47      - 2     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       48      + 0     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.28
10-Day Arms Index  1.48
21-Day Arms Index  1.35
55-Day Arms Index  1.36

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1229          1960
NASDAQ     1271          2137

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE       63            101
NASDAQ     42            167

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,398
NASDAQ   1,572

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 06/04/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials brought in a few of their shorts last week and added
a few longs.  Small traders grew slightly less bullish, but not
by a meaningful amount.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
05/21/02      354,039   429,803   (75,764)   (9.7%)
05/28/02      362,607   442,845   (80,238)   (9.9%)
06/04/02      369,298   440,027   (70,729)   (8.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
05/14/02      163,035     58,587  104,448     49.8%
05/21/02      172,313     57,803  114,510     49.8%
06/04/02      167,713     58,885  108,828     48.0%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials grew quite a bit more bullish last week by
bringing in a large number of short positions.  Small traders
meanwhile grew increasingly bearish with their addition of a
number of short positions, to just off of their yearly high in
bearishness.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
05/21/02       51,448     45,375     6,073   (6.3%)
05/28/02       49,669     44,900     4,769   (5.0%)
06/04/02       47,875     39,100     8,775   (9.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,775  - 06/04/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
05/21/02       12,567    19,899    (7,332)    22.6%
05/28/02       12,562    16,969    (4,407)    14.9%
06/04/02       12,162    21,420    (9,258)    27.2% 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow commercials added a few more shorts than longs last week for
a reduction in their new bullish position.  The small traders
were much more active with a significant drop in their bearish
position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
05/21/02       20,173    15,317    4,856     13.7%
05/28/02       20,289    15,513    4,776     13.3%
06/04/02       20,564    16,169    4,395     11.0% 

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
05/21/02        3,661     9,585    (5,924)   (44.7%)
05/28/02        5,709     9,180    (3,471)   (23.3%)
06/04/02        7,114     9,639    (2,525)   (14.7%) 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------







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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 06-13-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/f13b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Plays:     NVDA
  Bearish Play Updates:  TEK, IBM
  Closed Bearish Plays:  BLDP, CLS

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  DGX, KCP, OHP, THC
  Bearish Play Updates:  ACV, DHR, FBN
  Closed Bearish Plays:  BSTE, FO

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     BGEN, CNXT
  New Bearish Plays:     PPL
  Bullish Play Updates:  INTC, JCI
  Bearish Play UPdates:  MVK, MYG
  Closed Bearish Plays:  DOX, SFY

Split Trader
                         ERES:  3-for-2 split announcement 

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
                         


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=============
NB New Plays
=============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------  

NVIDIA Corp - NVDA - close: 27.66 change: -0.29 stop: *text*

Company Description:
NVIDIA Corporation, located in Santa Clara, CA, is the global 
leader in advanced graphics and multimedia processing technology 
for the consumer and professional computing markets. Its 2D, 3D, 
video and multimedia capabilities make NVIDIA one of the premier 
semiconductor companies in the world. NVIDIA offers a wide range 
of products and services, delivering superior performance and 
crisp visual quality for PC-based applications such as 
manufacturing, science, e-business, entertainment and education. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
In a bold move (or foolish, depending on your perspective), NVDA 
recently decided to enter into direct competition with INTC.  The 
leading graphics processor (GPU) manufacturer has created a 
partnership with AMD to produce motherboards with built-in NVDA 
technology.  Only time will tell whether the company gets 
systematically dismantled by the 900-lb semiconductor gorilla, 
but investors seem to have a decidedly negative view of this 
strategy.  NVDA has been trading in a declining regression 
channel for most of the year and is threatening a retest of its 
September lows near $22.  Shares were hit with heavy selling on 
Wednesday after RBC Capital Markets downgraded the company based 
on poor X-box sales and what appears to be an increasing market 
share for INTC's own GPU.  If NVDA's technical signals are any 
indication, we're inclined to agree with this bearish forecast.  
The bearish vertical count of $19 on the point-and-figure chart 
suggests that there's certainly a lot more downside potential.  
The oscillators also portend more selling, with the daily 
stochastics (5,3,3) plummeting towards the oversold band and MACD 
rolling lower from under the baseline.  Our action point to go 
short on NVDA will be at $26.66, just under Wednesday's low.  If 
triggered, our stop will be placed at $29.01.  More conservative 
traders could probably get away with a stop just above today's 
high of $28.68.  We're going to initially target the $20 level.  
This is somewhat optimistic, because it assumes that shares will 
break under the September lows.  We're basing this sunny outlook 
on the bearish vertical count at $19.  However, if NVDA does find 
support at those lows (near $22.50), we won't hesitate to take 
our gains off the table.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       05/22/02 (confirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Intl Business Mach - IBM - cls: 75.60 chg: +0.95 stop: 77.41 *new*

Our short play in IBM was triggered on Wednesday when shares 
declined below our action point at $74.94.  Although the broader 
market was negative most of the trading day, IBM was able to 
remain in positive territory. Two brokerage-related comments were 
behind IBM's positive day.  SG Cowen raised Q2 EPS estimates 
based on the company's restructuring actions. UBS Warburg chimed 
in with support of Big Blue's restructuring as well, saying that 
the restructuring eliminates businesses which have frustrated 
IBM's earnings and competitiveness. Warburg maintains a price 
target on IBM of $120, well above its current $75.00+- trading 
region. IBM's short-term technicals have turned positive as a 
result of today's advance.

Although IBM did see green ink today, it closed below our 
declining Bollinger Band 5-dma.   We're going to take advantage 
of this to tighten our stop, particularly in light of today's 
brokerage enthusiasm.  We've set the new buy stop at $77.41, just 
above today's high and just below the declining 10-dma.  Please 
remember that our profit-target is at $65.26, representing the 
bottom of IBM's regression channel.  

Picked on June 12th at $74.94 
Gain since picked:      -0.66
Earnings Date        04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Tektronix - TEK - cls: 18.86 chg: -0.43 stop: 19.46 *new*

TEK traded lower nearly the entire day, but most of our short-
term technical indicators bumped higher before edging lower 
again, and we're tightening our buy stop once again.  You may 
recall that in Wednesday's "Market Wrap" we said that the Dow and 
NASDAQ were both likely to enjoy short but brisk rebounds in 
coming days.  These bounce-rallies have failed to hold but we 
don't want to risk too much in TEK.  TEK is now presenting 
indications that it is going to bounce with--or without--the 
stock market at the $18.50 level.  With these considerations in 
mind, our new buy stop has been placed at $19.46, just above 
today's high.  Here's why:  the last few sessions have shown a 
trend of lower highs.  Aggressive players who used the previous 
day's high as their stop would have remained in the play while 
reducing risk.  We're going to do the same thing here.  If we are 
stopped out at this level, we'll essentially be breakeven with a 
9-cent gain.  Fortunately for the bears, the 5-minute chart is 
looking like a failed rally and we like the close back under the 
$19.00 level.  This does contradict some of our indicators and is 
part of the reason for our cautious stop placement.

Picked on June 7th at $19.55
Gain since picked:     +0.69
Earnings Date       06/20/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  -------------------- 

Ballard Power - BLDP - cls: 17.52 chg: +0.41 stop: 17.69 

Last night we moved our buy stop down for BLDP, to $17.69.  We 
felt that BLDP was either going to crack, turning much lower, or 
that it would attempt to follow the rest of the market as it 
rebounds in coming days.  Although BLDP started the morning off 
weak, it soon rebounded and moved high enough to hit our buy 
stop.  We are now out of this trade with a nice 7.8% gain.

Picked on June 7th at $19.19
Gain since picked:     +1.50
Earnings Date       04/29/02
 



---

Celestica - CLS - cls: 24.80 chg: -0.95 stop: 25.92 

Last night we tightened our buy stop on CLS to $25.92--a level 
just above CLS's high of its final hour of trading on Wednesday. 
The stock was fairly volatile in Thursday's session.  This may 
have been the result of the company's re-affirmation of guidance 
for Q2, generally a positive element in the current market 
environment. This was countered, though, when Kaufman Brothers 
initiated coverage of the stock with a "Hold," hardly a huge vote 
of confidence.  In the process of flailing between a low of 
$24.52 and a high of $26.22, our stop was hit.  This short 
position was closed with a nice gain of $5.02, or 16.2%.  Since 
June 7th, CLS has been attempting to form a bottom; daily 
Stochastics and MACD have both started to turn positive.  We'll 
take the money and run, so to speak.  We would not encourage new 
short positions at this time, except for aggressive traders who 
see the close under the $25 mark as the next turning point on its 
journey to the $20 level.

Picked on May 21st at $30.94
Gain since picked:     +5.02
Earnings Date       04/17/02 (confirmed)
 





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Quest Diagnostic - DGX - close: 88.27 change: -0.95 stop: 86.49

We're beginning to get a little concerned about DGX.  The stock 
reversed course after setting a near-term high on Tuesday and has 
weathered two days of losses.  Today's 1% decline was enough to 
violate the 50-dma ($88.78), and shares closed well under that 
level.  We'd been hoping that DGX would consolidate above the 50-
dma.  The downtrending daily stochastics (5,3,3) are also 
somewhat worrisome.  On a more bullish note, DGX has retraced 
roughly 61% of the recent rally (May 28th lows to June 11th 
highs).  The bulls did not seem willing to relinquish this level 
today.  It's also worth noting that today's decline was probably 
a result of the declining broader market and not indicative of 
stock-specific weakness.  However, due to the technical 
uncertainty we would not recommend entries at this time.

Picked on June 7th at $90.93
Change since picked:   -2.66
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed) 



 
---

Kenneth Cole - KCP - close: 28.15 change: +0.11 stop: 26.24

Moving contrary to the Dow Jones, KCP posted a small gain today.  
That relative strength bodes well for a move back to the near-
term high at $29.60.  Although the daily stochastics (5,3,3) have 
started to fall from the overbought region, it's interesting to 
note that the recent consolidation has come on lighter-than-
average volume.  We'll be watching for volume to pick up again 
and carry KCP to the $30 level.  Of course, KCP will have a hard 
time getting over the $30 level if the broader market continues 
to decline.  In terms of new entries, traders may want to wait 
for a bounce from the 50-dma at $26.86.

Picked on June 7th at $27.50
Change since picked:   +0.65
Earnings Date       05/01/02 (confirmed) 




---  

Oxford Health - OHP - close: 49.70 change: -0.54 stop: 46.48

After an impressive multi-day rally, the HMO Health Provider 
Index was due for some consolidation.  A veritable flood of 
positive sector news had propelled both the HMO and OHP to all-
time highs.  Despite posting a loss today, the stock traced a 
higher-high and higher-low, compared to Wednesday's trading 
range.  This bodes well for an eventual test of the all-time high 
at $51.94.  New entries can be evaluated on a close above $50.00 
or a bounce in the range from $48.00 to $48.50, but remember that 
we'll be exiting the play if OHP reaches $54.89.

Picked on June 7th at $48.64
Change since picked:   +1.06
Earnings Date       05/01/02 (confirmed)




---

Tenet Healthcare - THC - cls: 76.14 chg: +0.04 stop: 71.72

Bulls should be pretty pleased with the way THC has traded since 
it spiked higher earlier this week.  The stock posted a 
fractional gain today after bouncing from what appears to be 
near-term support at $75.70.  That's not too shabby, considering 
the Dow Jones was hit for a triple-digit loss.  THC mirrored the 
action on the RXH, the Healthcare Index, which also finished with 
a small gain.  If the broader market manages a strong rebound on 
Friday we'd expect THC to make a run at it's near-term high of 
$78.00.  Aggressive traders can consider going long if the stock 
rallies from current levels, but remember that we will exit this 
play if THC trades at or above $79.94.

Picked on May 29th at $72.98
Change since picked:   +3.16
Earnings Date       04/02/02 (confirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Alberto Culver - ACV - close: 52.03 change: -1.21 stop: *text*

ACV just doesn't want to cooperate with our bearish outlook.  The 
stock never dropped below our trigger at $51.14, and actually 
trended higher in recent sessions.  However, just as we were 
ready to give ACV to heave-ho, the stock was hit for a 2.2% loss.  
This created a reversal in the fast daily stochastic (5,3,3) and 
prevented what appeared to be an imminent bullish MACD crossover.  
Because of these developments, we're willing to give ACV at least 
one more day to perform.  Its on very thin ice, though...if the 
stock doesn't decline on Friday we'll probably drop this play.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       05/25/02 confirmed 


 

---

Danaher Corp. - DHR - cls: 63.08 chg: -1.37 stop: 63.44 *new*

We're getting close to our goal!  Shares of DHR dropped for the 
fourth consecutive session today and set a new multi-month low, 
closing just above the worst levels of the day.  Premier Investor 
is currently up 8.6% on this play, and conservative traders 
shouldn't hesitate to take profits if the stock rebounds from 
current levels.  We're feeling optimistic about a continued 
decline, and fully expect to see a test of the 200-dma at $62.84.  
Because this moving average keeps rising, we're going to bump our 
official profit-target up to $62.91.  We're also challenging the 
stock with a very tight stop at $63.44.  This strategy should 
ensure that we won't see too many of our gains go up in smoke if 
DHR manages a bounce.

Picked on May 13th at $69.03
Gain since picked:     +5.95
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed) 




--- 

Furniture Brands - FBN - cls: 34.39 chg: -1.09 stop: 36.76 *new*

We're pretty pleased with today's price action in FBN.  After 
falling through near-term support at $35.00, the stock 
accelerated to the downside and fell below intermediate-term 
support near $34.50.  At this rate we wouldn't be surprised to 
see FBN test its 200-dma ($32.18) within the next few trading 
sessions.  Technically speaking, we're encouraged by the daily 
stochastics (5,3,3,), which are dropping toward the oversold 
region.  Entries could be considered on a failed rally at the $36 
level or a break under $34.00, with the latter strategy lending 
itself to a more aggressive short-term approach.  To minimize 
risk, we're going to inch our stop down to $36.76, just above the 
Tuesday high.

Picked on June 7th at $35.12
Gain since picked:     +0.73
Earnings Date       04/24/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  -------------------- 

Biosite, Inc. - BSTE - close: 24.40 change: -0.62 stop: 25.20

In order to avoid getting caught in a possible short-term broader 
market rally, we lowered BSTE's stop to $25.20 last night.  Our 
play was closed for a gain of 4.1% after the stock sneaked above 
this level in early-morning trading.  On a technical basis, BSTE 
continues to look weak.  The stock wound up doing a 180 and 
finishing the day with a 2.4% loss.  That's another near-term 
low.  If shares continue to decline we'd expect support to emerge 
in the $23-$24 region.

Picked on June 7th at $26.29
Gain since picked:     +1.09 
Earnings Date       04/22/02 (confirmed)


 

--- 

Fortune Brands - FO - close: 53.38 change: +0.88 stop: 53.32 

Last night we elected to minimize our upside risk in FO by moving 
our stop down to $53.32.  In hindsight, it's a good thing we did!  
FO traded higher by 1.6% today after the company raised its Q2 
and full-year earnings outlook.  Shares plowed right through the 
50-dma and traded to an intraday high of $54.67.  Our play was 
closed at the opening price of $53.40, which represents a loss of 
3.0% from our original entry point.  With the good news likely to 
cast a positive aura on FO for the next few sessions, we're more 
than happy to be out of this play.
 
Picked on June 10th at $51.83 
Gain since picked       -1.49
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (confirmed)
 





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=============
HR New Plays
=============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  ----------------- 

Biogen - BGEN - close: 39.44 change: +0.25 stop: *text*

Company Description:  
Biogen, Inc., winner of the U.S. National Medal of Technology, is a 
biopharmaceutical company principally engaged in discovering and 
developing drugs for human healthcare through genetic engineering. 
Headquartered in Cambridge, MA, the Company's revenues are 
generated from international sales of AVONEX® (Interferon beta-1a) 
for treatment of relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis, and from 
the worldwide sales by licensees of a number of products covered 
under patents controlled by the Company (source: Company website)

Why We Like It:
Our selection of Biogen is closely related to our current market 
view.  And that is this:  the stock market remains very weak 
longer term (looking out over the summer) but short term we think 
there exists the prospect of a sharp snap-back rebound.  As such, 
we currently only wish to assume long positions in those equities 
most likely to advance quickly during such a short market 
rebound.  Technically, the kind of price pattern most consistent 
with our goal is the price gap.  Biogen has left two nearby gaps 
on its chart in the last 3 weeks, and both run from about $43.00 
to $47.00.  Our interest is very simple: we only want to be long 
BGEN as it moves into the gap.  We're optimistic that tonight's 
positive FDA news on Biogen's psoriasis drug (Amevive)--as well 
as recent upgrades by AG Edwards on June 10th and SG Cowen on 
June 3rd--will conspire to push BGEN into its gap in the next 
several days.

Our strategy is this: first, we will only go long BGEN once it 
moves into it's gap, above $43.00.  Second, we WILL NOT buy BGEN 
if is gaps up into this gap; we want to buy it as it simply 
trades into this region.  Finally, once triggered, we will use a 
sell stop of $41.10, which is just below a region of support on 
our hourly charts.  We'll be looking for BGEN to advance all the 
way to the top of the gap, at about $47.00. 

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date        7/18/02 (confirmed)
 



---  

Conexant Systems - CNXT - close: 5.00 change: +0.08 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Conexant Systems, Inc. is a worldwide leader in semiconductor 
system solutions for communications applications. Conexant 
leverages its expertise in mixed-signal processing to deliver 
integrated systems and semiconductor products through three 
separate businesses that address the wireless communications, 
broadband access and Internet infrastructure markets. (source: 
company website)

Why We Like It:
CNXT has seen better days.  The stock has been marching steadily
 lower since topping out near $18 in late December and is 
currently trading at all-time lows.  So what makes us want to 
attempt a long play?  Quite simply, we're looking for a short-
covering rally to give us a quick pop back to the $6.35-$6.50 
area.  The recent consolidation near $5.00 indicates that the 
near-term selling may be exhausted.  This perspective is 
supported by the daily stochastics, which are beginning to curl 
higher from the extreme oversold region.  We're also encouraged 
by the bullish action on the MACD histogram.  A similar oversold 
case could be made for the semiconductor index (SOX.X), which has 
recently found support near 420.  Our specific entry/exit 
strategy is as follows: We won't enter this play until CNXT 
trades above the near-term high of $5.40.  If we get triggered 
we'll use a stop-loss at $4.99.  However, be advised that we 
won't enter the play if CNXT gaps above $5.45.  Our profit-target 
will be set at $6.39, which would be a gain of roughly 18% from 
our entry point.

Picked on June xth at xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:  +0.00
Earnings Date      04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

PPL Corporation - PPL - close: 31.86 change: -1.35 stop: *text*

Company Description:  
PPL Corporation generates and sells electricity in the 
northeastern and western parts of the United States and in 
Canada.

Why We Like It:
PPL possess a 20-month topping pattern that looks suspiciously 
like a sloppy head and shoulders, with prices sitting atop the 
last bastion of support before falling off a cliff.  Normally, 
that would be enough to grab our attention and cause us to 
salivate like Pavlov's dogs. But today's news, in combination 
with sell signals on the weekly MACD, Stochastic Oscillator and 
RSI, make this an irresistible short play.  Pennsylvania energy 
regulators claimed today that PPL Corp. had unfairly manipulated 
prices in its Mid-Atlantic power market. The Pennsylvania Public 
Utilities Commission said that it has determined that the PPL's 
actions "damaged wholesale and retail markets and the public's 
confidence in them."

In an era of Enron, Williams Company, ImClone and Tyco, this is 
the kind of corporate impropriety that can be devastating to a 
stock's price.  And we'd like to profit from such devastation.

We want to short PPL on a move below $31.65, with this one 
qualification: if PPL gaps down below $30.50, we will not short 
it, preferring to wait for a more attractive entry point. Once 
the trade is triggered, we'll use an initial buy stop of $34.18.  
We think this stock is capable of falling briskly through its 
"fast move region," declining over several weeks to its next 
major support at the $24.00 region.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date        7/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 21.11 change: -0.47 stop: *text*

Our long play in INTC has yet to be triggered but we remain 
optimistic that it will be initiated within the next few days. 
News from other semiconductor stocks--both KLAC and AMAT both 
confirmed guidance today--remains generally positive.  INTC has a 
gap above $22.75, and our strategy is to simply take a quick 
trade in the stock as it fills the gap.  As noted last night, we 
won't go long until shares trade at or above $22.77.  And we WILL 
NOT enter the play if INTC gaps above $23.00.  Our initial profit 
target will be at the $26.00 level.  If the play is triggered 
we'll manage our risk with a relatively tight stop at $21.69, 
just below the June 7th low. 

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       10/15/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Johnson Controls - JCI - close: 82.57 change: -0.83 stop: 79.94

Johnson Controls' workers at four of its plants went on strike 
Wednesday, claiming anti-union acts and unfair labor practices on 
the part of JCI.  The labor dispute has now forced General Motors 
and DaimlerChrysler to stop auto production at two of their 
factories.  Technically, JCI has formed a small triangle at the 
bottom of its May 24th - June 7th decline.  Prices currently sit 
at the lower boundary of this consolidation.  We'll be watching 
to see if it can rebound, once again, off this tend line.  

Picked on June 7th at $83.31
Gain since picked:     -0.74
Earnings Date       07/18/02 (confirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  -------------------- 

Maytag Corp - MYG - close: 44.12 change: -1.15 stop: 46.01 *new*

Our short position in Maytag was triggered on Wednesday, June 
12th. We shorted it as it gapped up at the open, selling it short 
at the opening price of $44.50.  Although the stock moved higher 
on Wednesday than we anticipated, it has subsequently behaved 
just as we expected, pulling back sharply since hitting its 
Wednesday's intraday high of $46.45.  Now that we are in the 
green on this trade, we've lowered our buy stop to a level just 
above the 50-dma and resistance, at $46.01.  

Our initial price target is $38.75.  If MYG is unable to rebound 
at this level, and sharply pierces through it, a decline to 
$33.00 is very possible over the next few weeks although we will 
keep a wary eye on the 200-dma near the potential psychological 
support level at $35.00.

Picked on June xth at $44.50 
Gain since picked:     +0.38
Earnings Date       07/16/02 confirmed
 



---

Maverick Tube - MVK - cls: 13.75 chg: -0.30 stop: 14.01 *new*

Our short position in Maverick Tube was triggered today as MVK 
traded up to an intraday high of $14.45.  As PI readers may 
recall, our strategy with MVK was to short it on a rebound to 
$14.15, expecting resistance in the $14.00 - $14.50 region to 
then turn the stock downward.  This is precisely the sequence of 
events that occurred today, giving us a healthy one-day gain of 
about 3%.  We're going to set a tight stop on this trade now, 
using 14.01--a level just above intraday resistance and the 
declining Bollinger Band 5-dma.  

Picked on June 13th at $14.15 
Gain since picked:      +0.40
Earnings Date        07/18/02 confirmed
 




===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  -------------------- 

Amdocs Ltd - DOX - close: 16.28 change: +0.02 stop: 16.44 

DOX scampered up, then down today, hitting our recently tightened 
stop of $16.44.  While we still think this stock has more 
downside left in it, we're content to take our nice 6% short term 
gain and re-evaluate subsequent shorting opportunities at a later 
date.  Technical indicators for DOX are now mixed, with at least 
one of these--the Stochastic Oscillator--giving a short-term 
bullish signal as it moves out of oversold readings.  We'd prefer 
not to be in DOX if it begins to sharply reverse upward in coming 
days.
 
Picked on June 6th at $17.50 
Gain since picked:     +1.06
Earnings Date        4/23/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Swift Energy - SFY - close: 14.26 change: +0.37 stop: 13.90 

Our newly tightened buy stop was hit during today's trading, 
closing out this trade with a 1.5% loss.  Disappointing, yes; but 
that's the nature of trading--cut losses quickly but let profits 
run.  Unfortunately, we had to do the former rather this time 
rather than the latter. With all of the short term technical 
indicators now turning positive on SFY--RSI, Stochastics, MACD--
we're not likely to revisit SFY with new short positions anytime 
soon.

Picked on June 7th at $13.69
Gain since picked:     -0.21
Earnings Date        05/01/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

eResearch announces 3-for-2 stock split

During the lunch hour today, eResearchTechology, Inc. (NASDAQ: 
ERES) announced that its Board of Directors had authorized a 3-
for-2 stock split.

The split will be distributed on July 16, 2002 to shareholders of 
record on June 25, 2002.  

This will be the first split for ERES since it began trading in 
1997.  The stock is currently trading near its all-time highs and 
has nearly doubled in 2002.

Shares closed at $21.86 on Thursday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=ERES


About the company
Based in Philadelphia, PA, eResearchTechnology, Inc is a provider 
of technology and services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology 
and medical device industries on a global basis. The company is a 
market leader in providing centralized core-diagnostic 
electrocardiographic (ECG) services to evaluate cardiac safety in 
clinical development. The Company is also a leader in providing 
technology and services to streamline the clinical trial process 
by enabling its customers to automate the collection, analysis, 
and distribution of clinical data in all phases of clinical 
development. (source: company press release). 


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 

Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

DUK     Duke Energy Corp           31.00     +0.87
EP      El Paso Corp               22.55     +0.65
APA     Apache Corp                54.52     +1.19
FDP     Fresh Del Monte Produce    25.50     +0.55
WGOV    Woodward Governor Co       57.00     +1.43
HBHC    Hancock Holding Co         60.18     +0.64

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CENT     Central Garden & Pet Co   16.27     +1.07

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BMS     Bemis Co Inc               51.24     +1.40
LPNT    Lifepoint Hospitals        39.55     +1.19
USPI    UTD Surgical               31.14     +2.39
ATU     Actuant Corp               41.80     +1.02
WTFC    Wintrust Financial Corp    31.30     +1.60
JASA    Jo-Ann Stores Inc          26.96     +1.96

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

TEF     Telefonica Sa              26.37     -1.12
STM     STMicroelectronics         21.96     -1.41
EDS     Electronic Data Systems    46.55     -2.73
BBY     Best Buy Co Inc            41.67     -1.52
WPPGY   WPP Group Plc ADR          45.31     -1.99
MHP     McGraw-Hill Companies      57.10     -2.18

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

HCBK    Hudson City Bancorp        39.40     -0.60
ALAB    Alabama National Bancorp   42.34     -0.86



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