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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 06/14/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 06-14-2002
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Sprint, Terrorism, and Sentiment
Play-of-the-Day:  Flirting With Disaster
Watch List:       AMWD, GILD, TGIC, and much more!
Market Sentiment: Market Sentiment will be available on the Premier
                  Investor website late Saturday afternoon

******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
        WE 6-14          WE 6-07          WE 5-31          WE 5-24
DOW     9474.21 -115.46  9589.67 -335.58  9925.25 -179.01  -248.82  
Nasdaq  1504.74 - 30.74  1535.48 - 80.25  1615.73 - 45.76  - 79.90 
S&P-100  501.76 -  5.56   507.32 - 21.88   529.20 - 10.72  - 13.38 
S&P-500 1007.27 - 20.26  1027.53 - 39.61  1067.14 - 16.68  - 22.77 
W5000   9549.72 -202.97  9752.69 -353.80 10106.49 -144.15  -223.54  
RUT      459.07 - 11.44   470.51 - 16.96   487.47 -  6.17  - 15.30 
TRAN    2673.14 - 13.52  2686.66 - 62.60  2749.26 +  5.59  - 54.69 
VIX       29.93 +  3.28    26.65 +  3.75    22.90 +  1.64  +   .88 
VXN       55.67 +  3.43    52.24 +  6.29    45.95 +  3.09  -   .08 
TRIN       1.34             1.30             1.11             1.59       
Put/Call   1.15              .79              .73              .82       
******************************************************************


===========
Market Wrap
===========

Sprint, terrorism and sentiment

Sprint, terrorism and sentiment was all it took to have stocks 
hit their lows of the session, but once all the bad news was out 
on the table, stocks managed to recover back near unchanged 
levels by the close.

If early morning terrorist attacks in Karachi, Pakistan were not 
enough to send shivers down an investor's spine, then an early 
morning warning from long distance communications provider Sprint 
Corp. (NYSE:FON) $11.75 -17.7% and digital wireless Sprint PCS 
Group (NYSE:PCS) $4.40 -26.54% did.  

Then at around 10:00 AM EST, the University of Michigan's 
consumer sentiment index for mid-June disappointed investors a it 
dropped to 90.8 versus May's 96.9 reading.  Coupled with 
Thursday's retail sales slump, the lower sentiment data sparked 
further worries that the consumer and pillar of stability for the 
U.S. economy through the recession, may finally be rolling over.

In past commentary, we've noted how consumer sentiment has been 
tied to the performance of the stock market, specifically the 
NASDAQ.  An economist at UBS Warburg echoed those beliefs today 
by saying "The slump in the stock market likely helped to drive 
consumer sentiment to a four month low.  Consumers apparently 
anticipate that growth will slow and the unemployment rate will 
stagnate over the balance of this year.  That combination is 
likely to keep a lid on household spending."

In other economic news today, industrial production rose 0.2%, 
its fifth straight increase, but was less than the expected 0.4% 
forecast.  Capacity utilization rose just fractionally from the 
prior month to a 75.5% rate, but was sill less than the 75.7% 
rate that economists had forecasted.  While industrial production 
was rising by 0.2%, April business inventories fell by a 
forecasted 0.2%.

Lower for fourth straight week

While the market averages were able to shrug off this morning's 
blues for the most part, the weekly data shows that the major 
market averages fell for a fourth consecutive week.  

Weekly market averages/section action




This week's action has selling relatively evenly distributed 
among the major market averages.  The tech-laden NASDAQ-100 Index 
(NDX.X) 1,109.6 +0.27% managed a gain on today's session, but was 
still the worst performing major average.  Microsoft 
(NASDAQ:MSFT) $55.25 +1.89% now has a 12.56% weighting in the 
NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X) and this week's 6.2% gain from the worlds 
largest software maker had a major impact on how the NASDAQ-100 
and even the Dow Industrials traded.  

If there's one stock right now that bulls will hang any hopes of 
a summer rally on and that bears don't want to see catch fire,  
it would have to be Microsoft (MSFT).  While the stock stumbled 
out of the gate this morning by gapping down to $53.00, the stock 
came close to challenging Wednesday's highs of $55.78. 

This week "big winner" on price performance was Treasuries, as 
the 10-year YIELD plunged to 4.806%.  That action sucked quite a 
bit of cash from the markets and it showed.  Especially in the 
telecom and telecom equipment sectors.

The Fiber Optic Index (FOP.X) took its turn as this week's 
biggest loser, shedding 9% on the week.  As I look through the 
various components of this index, it looks like Cisco Systems 
(NASDAQ:CSCO) $14.30 -3.96% represented the bulk of the sector's 
declines as the stock fell 11.06% on the week.  Cisco (CSCO) also 
carries a heavy weighting in the Networking Index (NWX.X) 165.78 
-1.04%, which fell -5.7% this week.  

One thing I'd note here.  I've noted in the past that CSCO was 
about the only remaining "networking" or "communication 
equipment" stock that was trading above $15 that a trader might 
feel "comfortable" shorting.  It's worth noting that this stock 
actually outperformed to the downside, while many of the now 
smaller valuation stocks either held their ground or made small 
advances.  What a trader needs to understand in relation to Cisco 
(CSCO) is that while the stock is only down about $2 from when I 
first mentioned the stock as a bearish candidate near $16, a 
little short covering rally of $1, back to resistance still 
represents a fairly sizable percentage gain.  With the NASDAQ-100 
Bullish % ($BPNDX) now at 16% bullish, bears still need to 
exercise some caution and be careful not to overweight on the 
bearish side.  Currently, I'd want to lower stops to a break-even 
level at a minimum.  I'm sure I'm not the only one that looked to 
short Cisco (CSCO) to get some exposure to the telecom equipment 
sector.  Technically, I'd have a stop on any bearish positions 
set just above previously shown retracement of $15.27.  For those 
still bearish the stock, it may also be helpful to go back and 
review some point and figure comments from the May 13th market 
wrap.
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/markets/marketwrap/053102_1.asp
It may help you understand where we've been, and where we are now 
as it relates to Cisco (CSCO) and the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % 
($BPNDX).

Internals still defensive

Bears may have been a bit disappointed by today's action as the 
early morning declines were somewhat reversed, especially for 
many technology stocks.

The main indicator I like to monitor for the larger cap 
technology levels of risk had the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) 
from www.stockcharts.com seeing a net loss of 4 stocks to sell 
signals on their point and figure charts this week, and after 
today's action, now has this indicator reading 16%.  

The S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) saw the S&P 100 also losing a net 
of 4 stocks to sell signals this week, and now stands at 46%.  
Unlike the more tech-laden NASDAQ-100, the S&P 100 has a broader 
diversity of stocks from various sectors of the economy.  While 
Microsoft (MSFT) comprises over 12% weighting in the NASDAQ-100, 
it only carries a 4.99% weighting in the OEX.X.  If you'd like to 
see the 100 components of the S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) and what 
weighting each stock has, you can visit 
http://www.cboe.com/Common/PageViewer.asp?SEC=4&DIR=OPIndexComp&FILE=snp100.doc

The broader yet S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) found this bullish % 
indicator falling to 44.2% as of tonight, down from last Friday's 
reading of 52%.  This tell us we saw a net loss of about 39 
stocks to sell signals.

And finally, the very broad and broadest of all the bullish 
percents, we saw net declines in both the NYSE Composite Bullish 
% ($BPNYA) and NASDAQ Composite Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ).  The NYSE 
Bullish % fell to 52.2% bullish from last Friday's reading of 
55.9% and the NASDAQ Composite Bullish % fell to 40.2% from last 
Friday's reading of 43.4%.

Just remember, the major market averages are WEIGHTED, while the 
bullish % are not.  While a stock like Microsoft (MSFT) carries a 
large 12% weighting in the NASDAQ-100, Microsoft only gets 1 
equally weighted vote as it relates to the bullish %.

For any type of true "heads up" for a rally, I've found that the 
NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) is often times the first bullish % 
to reverse higher.  As mentioned before, technology bears need to 
be careful with their shorting in this area and be paying close 
attention to risk management.  Levels below 30% are deemed 
"oversold."

New retracement on Aquila

I wanted to quickly show subscribers a "new" retracement on 
Aquila Inc. (NYSE:ILA) 10.50 -14.28%, which was a stock that I 
got several e-mails from based on past bearish profile in my May 
29th market wrap.  

Bears got a nice break lower in the stock today, after about a 
week and a half of patient waiting after the initial break lower 
on May 30th.

The original retracement we were using was a bit "wide" for what 
has taken place, and today I refined this retracement for those 
that wanted to hang on a little longer.  Subscribers will note 
that some levels are very close to those previously shown, but 
the new retracement gives us one more level to monitor near term 
and helps the trader make a better risk/reward decision for their 
account.

Aquila Inc. Chart - Daily Interval




A broker downgrade, an SEC request for information regarding 
potential "round-trip" trades from energy swaps, and the company 
saying it will review its dividend policy is just what a bearish 
trader needed for a sharp break lower today.  

Aquila (ILA) company officials maintain that it has not engaged 
in any fabricated "round-trip" trades with other companies, and 
that all of its trades that resembled the wash trades previously 
investigated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) 
were done for legitimate business reasons.

Regardless of what ILA thinks, or what the MARKET may think, I 
don't like to risk the potential loss of gains that some traders 
may be holding and suggest some gains be taken off the table 
here.  By doing so, some risk from the trade is removed, just in 
case the SEC agrees with ILA.

Volatility for triple-witching

Next Friday (June 21) will be triple-witching and this will most 
likely add some volatility to trading as stock options, stock 
index futures options, and stock index futures all expire.  The 
"mass" expiration can cause wild gyrations and false moves in 
prices as contracts are covered, rolled over, or closed out. 

Some unwinding and even rolling forward of institutional hedges 
has most likely already taken place, but as we near next week's 
expiration, we could see increased volatility from triple-
witching.

Triple-witching can be more volatile than conventional stock 
option expiration weeks as the "futures" portion of expiration 
only happens quarterly (4 times per year).  

This week's upcoming action could be more volatile than some 
triple-witching expirations and it would be advised for traders 
to only trade smaller positions (long or short).

With the S&P 500 down about 12% so far this year, you can 
certainly imagine that there were some June S&P futures (sp02m) 
positions put on at the end of last year and in March (end of the 
first quarter).  

Again, I'm anticipating some volatility and things can get VERY 
volatile.  The best way to manage risk in a trade is to reduce 
trade size.  True, you may not get rich quick, but you won't get 
poor quick either.

I love history....

I you don't want to be reminded of what raging bull market used 
to be, then don't click on the following link.  However, I like 
to read past articles and see things that were going on in the 
markets from days past.  Here's an interesting article that was 
written on September 17, 1999, which was a triple-witching 
session.
http://investor.cnet.com/investor/news/newsitem/0-9900-1028-6117920-0.html

Excite@Home?  Tell me grandpa, what did they do?

Have a nice weekend.  Remember, only you can prevent forest 
fires!

Jeff Bailey


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH)
=========================
(( new Active Trader short play ))

Cooper Industries - CBE - close: 40.46 change: -0.89 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Cooper Industries, with 2001 revenues of $4.2 billion, is a 
worldwide manufacturer of electrical products, tools and 
hardware. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
CBE is set up for what could be a substantial breakdown.  Since 
March, the stock has consistently found support near $40.00.  
Shares traded a new multi-month low today after briefly breaking 
under that level.  Although an afternoon rebound took CBE back 
above the 200-dma ($40.38), we think it's just a matter of time 
before the bears pile on.  If this occurs, CBE will fall into a 
"fast move" region between $34-$39.  We'd expect to see shares 
decline just as fast as they rallied in early-March.  So what are 
the technical reasons that we're anticipating a full-fledged 
breakdown?  First and foremost, below the $40 level (and 200-dma) 
there isn't any historical support to speak of until $36.00.  
Bulls will have little to hang their horns on if CBE slips lower.  
Today's decline also created a double-bottom sell signal on the 
p-n-f chart.  The oscillators look bearish as well, with the 
daily stochastics (5,3,3) downtrending and MACD beginning to curl 
lower from below the baseline.  We don't want to short CBE before 
it breaks down, so this play won't be activated until the stock 
trades below today's low of $39.82.  If triggered, we'll use a 
fairly tight stop at $41.87, just above the Thursday high.  Our 
initial profit target will be at the $33 level.  This is near 
both the February lows and 81% retracement from January lows to 
April highs.  If things really accelerate to the downside we 
might aim for the $30 level.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       04/23/02
 




==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------

American Woodmark Corp. - AMWD - close: 54.45 change: -2.06

WHAT TO WATCH: AMWD is approaching what could be a pivotal action 
point.  A three-week selloff has taken the stock down to its 200-
dma at $53.77.  With shares looking quite oversold, a bounce 
could quickly take the stock back to near-term resistance at 
$60.00.  Traders betting on a short-covering rally could manage 
risk with a stop just under the 200-dma.  On the other hand, a 
break below this moving average could lead to yet another round 
of selling.  If this were the case we'd expect AMWD to test the 
$50 level in short order.  Be advised that AMWD trades on low 
volume of 49K shares/day.


 

--- 

Gilead Sciences Inc. - GILD - close: 32.93 change: +1.59

WHAT TO WATCH: Hey, it's a biotech that isn't trading at multi-
year lows.  To be sure, GILD has suffered some heavy selling in 
recent weeks...But we think the bearish trend may have run its 
course.  What we like about the stock is how it mustered a bounce 
from the $30 level.  This has created some bullish action in the 
MACD and daily stochastic oscillators.  Traders can consider 
entries on a move above today's high of $33.75, well above the 
200-dma.  Although the 50-dma ($34.14) could act as resistance, a 
full-fledged short-covering rally in the biotech sector could 
quickly have GILD trading in the $36-$38 region.




---

Triad Guaranty Inc. - TGIC - close: 40.27 change: -1.20

WHAT TO WATCH: Here's a stock that aggressive dip-buyers might 
want to take a look at.  TGIC has been in a freefall for over a 
week and has lost nearly 13% since breaking below its 50-dma.  
However, shares came to a dead stop at $40.00 today.  This level 
happens to coincide with the stock's bullish p-n-f support.  
Short covering bounce, anyone?  A relatively tight stop could be 
placed just under the 200-dma at $39.13, which creates a 
favorable risk/reward setup for TGIC.  We'd be targeting a near-
term move back to the $44-$45 region.  Note that TGIC trades on 
low average daily volume of 33K shares.





=============
MORE TO WATCH
=============

BE Aerospace - BEAV - close: 12.57 change: +0.06

We've profiled BEAV before; the stock has been trading in a 
sideways fashion since early April, waiting to break out. It has 
recently been bumping against its rising 50-dma. Combined with an 
improving RSI, Stochastics and MACD, this stock seems to be 
begging for release.  Once over price congestion at $13.40, the 
stock should be headed for its $17.50 resistance region.  If you 
play this firecracker, keep a close stop--a move below $11.90 
begins to put the stock into an ugly downward gap.




---

Broadcom Corp. - BRCM - close: 19.65 change: -0.40

BRCM is approaching its September lows at $18.40.  A break below 
this level could quickly take the stock to $15.00, while a short-
covering bounce could send shares back above $20.00.  Either way, 
BRCM is likely to make a big move.




---

Cytyc Corp - CYTC - close: 11.12 change: -0.84

This NASDAQ-100 component is trading at multi-year lows and looks 
to be headed for a test of the $10.00 level.  A break below 
$11.00 could afford short-term traders a chance to capture a 
quick 8%-9% move. 


 

--- 

Network Appliance - NTAP - close: 13.19 change: +0.25

Solid support at $12.00 was tested again today.  The NASDAQ 
bounce gave the bulls a reprieve, but will it last?  A break 
below $12.00 could open the door for a quick move to the $10.00 
level.  




---

Veritas Software - VRTS - close: 22.64 change: +0.11

VRTS has been forming a small triangle consolidation at the 
bottom of its March - June decline for the last 2 weeks.  
Normally this would be a negative situation. But VRTS is very 
close to breaking out of this pattern, in an upward direction.  
If there is any NASDAQ strength early next week, this stock could 
try to make a run from current levels to $27.50.


 

----------------
The RADAR Screen
---------------- 

T    - Super aggressive.  Hammer candlestick at the bottom of   
       trend could signify a reversal.  Target the $12 level.

ORCL - Another aggressive play, targeting a move back to the 50-
       dma at $9.50.

S    - Buying at support of $55 and 50-dma.  Target $60.00.

CCL  - Aggressive entry at 200-dma support and hammer 
       candlestick.  Could also short under 200-dma.

NWL  - Watch for a dip to the $32 area for a bounce, then aim for 
       $36. 

STJ  - Looks like a bounce.  Somewhat aggressive.  Possible rez
       at $80 and 50-dma, definitely at $85.

PCG  - Bounce at strong support of $19.75-$20.00...But terrible s
       sector!

WEN  - Looks like an entry with bounce at $38.50. 

F    - Could short to $14, but looks like it could bounce first.

DOV  - Oversold like everything else, but possible target of $30.

SV   - Which way will it go?  Currently at September lows. 

GR   - Use trigger under 200-dma, target potential support at $25

MCRS - Just moving above 50-dma with buy signals on RSI & MACD

ORCL - Earnings are released Tuesday night. Just how brave R U?

ATML - Double bottom w/bullish RSI. Great volume for long play.


================
Market Sentiment
================

Please check the Premier Investor website.  The market sentiment
will be posted late Saturday afternoon.




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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 06-14-2002
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/f14b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bullish Plays:     MSFT
  Bearish Play Updates:  IBM, NVDA, TEK

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bullish Plays:     N
  New Bearish Plays:     CBE
  Bullish Play Updates:  KCP, OHP, THC
  Bearish Play Updates:  ACV, FBN
  Closed Bullish Plays:  DGX
  Closed Bearish Plays:  DHR

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     AMZN, KSWS
  New Bearish Plays:     RATL
  Bullish Play Updates:  BGEN, CNXT, INTC, JCI
  Bearish Play Updates:  MYG, MVK, PPL

Long-term Plays
  Bullish Play Updates:  UHS
  Closed Bullish Plays:  SAFC
  
                         

==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays 
  ----------------- 

Microsoft - MSFT - close: 55.25 change: +1.03 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Microsoft is, well, you know: the company that makes computers 
and most of the business world, work. Windows. Excel. Outlook 
Express. MSN. Hotmail.  The only items for which they don't 
provide software are....well, none.

Why We Like It:
In the last few days, MSFT has emerged as a market leader, 
helping the Dow and many tech sectors survive the thrashing that 
hit the markets this week. MSFT has begun to consistently move 
higher, on increasing volume, over the last two weeks. Rumors 
mid-week that MSFT was preparing to pre-announce improved 
guidance contributed to the recent performance of the stock.  
Technically, the items that impress us most are these:

Since mid-April MSFT has been forming a triangular consolidation 
at the bottom of its March - May decline.  While this pattern is 
frequently negative, MSFT began breaking out of it--rather than 
breaking down from it--on Wednesday.  The same bullish rally on 
Wednesday also shot shares of MSFT up through the top of its 
descending regression channel from the trend change in mid-
January.  It doesn't hurt to see stronger volume, something of a 
rarity these days, on the rallies either.

The MACD, RSI and Stochastic Oscillator have all turned 
positive, and MSFT has recorded 3 straight closes above its 50-
dma.

On its weekly chart, MSFT has formed a reverse head and 
shoulders pattern on its RSI indicator (not the price chart)--a 
positive breakout pattern in either case. Other weekly 
technicals are positive or quickly improving as well.

Our strategy: traders will want to buy MSFT on a move above 
today's high of $55.61.  Once triggered, we'd use a sell-stop 
under the 50-dma, and today's low, at $52.93. Our initial profit 
objective is the 200-dma currently near $59.66.  We suspect that 
the $60 level might also pose as potential psychological round 
number resistance.  Keep in mind that PnF chart fans might want 
to wait for a move above $56 or even $57 since this represents 
the bearish resistance line.  An alternative entry would be to 
wait for a move over the mid-May highs at $56.44.  

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         07/15/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Intl Business Mach - IBM - cls: 76.17 chg: +0.57 stop: 77.41 

Our trade in IBM looked good this morning until the market, 
particularly the tech sector, began to reverse.  Short term 
technicals have begun to turn positive--RSI, MACD and 
Stochastics.  If the market experiences any significant strength 
next week, this short play will be in jeopardy of getting stopped 
out.  We think there is still more weakness to be experienced by 
IBM, and we're optimistic we'll see that before it rebounds.   We 
continue to maintain a downside profit-target at $65.26, 
representing the bottom of IBM's regression channel.  

Picked on June 12th at $74.94 
Gain since picked:      -0.66
Earnings Date        04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

NVIDIA Corp - NVDA - close: 28.18 change: +0.52 stop: 29.01


NVDA dropped at the open this morning, triggering our play at the 
opening price of $26.64. BMO Nesbitt Burns came out today and 
initiated coverage of NVDA with an "underperform" rating--the 
kind of statement that would normally have pushed the stock down 
hard.  But the broader market reversed its substantial morning 
losses, and the rising tide lifted all boats--well, most of them-
-including NVDA. Now that the trade is active, we'll use a $29.01 
buy stop.  Our price target remains at the $20 level.  The stock 
does have some support in the $22.50 region, and we would not 
hesitate to pocket gains at that level if the stock starts to act 
frisky.  

Picked on June 14th at $26.64 
Gain since picked:      -1.54
Earnings Date        05/22/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Tektronix - TEK - cls: 18.78 chg: -0.08 stop: 19.46 

Like the rest of the technology sector, TEK dropped early in the 
morning only to rebound later in the day.  Although Tektronix 
traded as low as $18.50, it finished the trading day down only 
about 1/2%. TEK announces earnings after the close on Thursday, 
June 20th, and we'll be watching to see how it trades ahead of 
this event.  The stock is bumping against its 5-dma; a move above 
that level will challenge our buy stop at $19.46.  Please note 
that we generally prefer not to hold positions over earnings; it 
is therefore likely that we will exit this position by Thursday's 
close.

Picked on June 7th at $19.55
Gain since picked:     +0.77
Earnings Date       06/20/02 (confirmed)
 





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Inco Ltd. - N - close: 21.42 change: -0.09 stop: 20.99

Company Description:
Toronto, Canada-based Inco Limited, traded on both the Canadian 
and the NYSE stock exchanges, is primarily focused in mining for 
nickel, copper and other precious metals like cobalt.  (source: 
company press release)

Why We Like It:
News is a bit scarce for this Canadian mining company, known as 
the western world's largest nickel producer, but there has been a 
story building about its Canadian nickel asset that the company 
has not been able to develop.  In late May...the "buzz" was that 
Inco Ltd would be allowed to develop the "big, rich" Voisey Bay 
nickel deposit.  As recently as June 11th, years of talks and 
negotiations finally came together for Inco & Canada's poorest 
province, Newfoundland.  Together, the provincial government and 
Inco agreed to a 30-year, $1.9 billion deal to develop the huge 
Voisey Bay nickel deposit (source: Reuters).  While the company 
is sinking a hefty sum in this partnership with the Canadian 
government it will finally begin to start the process that will 
allow it to mine this nickel deposit it paid $2.6 billion (US$) 
for back in 1996.  On a technical basis we're encouraged by the 
long and dependable bullish trend that has been relatively 
unfettered by the market volatility since it began back in late 
September.  While other sectors began to rollover and consolidate 
in 2002, there have been a few stocks in the metals & mining 
group that have kept their strength and shares of Inco have 
maintained their trend.  Currently there are several observations 
that lead us to believe this is an opportune time to enter a 
bullish trade in the stock.  Shares of N have come down to the 
bottom of its regression channel, which happens to coincide with 
its rising 50-dma.  Furthermore, this level of support also 
corresponds with the $21 level that was previous resistance back 
in April.  Once broker, resistance tends to become support.  
Furthermore, the intraday bounce today is a 50% retracement from 
its late April to early June advance.  We will admit the MACD 
still looks bearish but the stochastics (14,1,3) and the momentum 
indicator are suggesting bottoms have been reached.  We're going 
to place our stop at just under the $21.00 level ($20.99), which 
will also be below the 50-dma.  This should keep our risk to less 
than 50 cents.  Meanwhile, our target is the recent highs near 
$23.50 to the top of the channel near $24.00.  If you prefer an 
action point, we'd look for a move back over the $21.50 level to 
initiate a play.  

*check out the attached chart*

Picked on June 14th at $21.42
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date        04/16/02 (confirmed)
 



  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Cooper Industries - CBE - close: 40.46 change: -0.89 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Cooper Industries, with 2001 revenues of $4.2 billion, is a 
worldwide manufacturer of electrical products, tools and 
hardware. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
CBE is set up for what could be a substantial breakdown.  Since 
March, the stock has consistently found support near $40.00.  
Shares traded a new multi-month low today after briefly breaking 
under that level.  Although an afternoon rebound took CBE back 
above the 200-dma ($40.38), we think it's just a matter of time 
before the bears pile on.  If this occurs, CBE will fall into a 
"fast move" region between $34-$39.  We'd expect to see shares 
decline just as fast as they rallied in early-March.  So what are 
the technical reasons that we're anticipating a full-fledged 
breakdown?  First and foremost, below the $40 level (and 200-dma) 
there isn't any historical support to speak of until $36.00.  
Bulls will have little to hang their horns on if CBE slips lower.  
Today's decline also created a double-bottom sell signal on the 
p-n-f chart.  The oscillators look bearish as well, with the 
daily stochastics (5,3,3) downtrending and MACD beginning to curl 
lower from below the baseline.  We don't want to short CBE before 
it breaks down, so this play won't be activated until the stock 
trades below today's low of $39.82.  If triggered, we'll use a 
fairly tight stop at $41.87, just above the Thursday high.  Our 
initial profit target will be at the $33 level.  This is near 
both the February lows and 81% retracement from January lows to 
April highs.  If things really accelerate to the downside we 
might aim for the $30 level.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       04/23/02
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Kenneth Cole - KCP - close: 28.25 change: +0.10 stop: 26.24

Compared to the huge range posted by many of the stocks we 
follow, today's action in KCP was pretty tame.  The stock dipped 
to a low of $27.60 and lazily trended higher for the rest of the 
session, finishing at the highs of the day.  The technical 
picture remains unchanged; daily stochastics are falling, the 
MACD is uptrending, and volume is downright anemic.  Next week 
we'll be watching for renewed buying interest to propel KCP above 
the $30 level.  Traders looking to go long should continue to 
watch for a bounce from the 50-dma ($27.04) assuming Friday's 
session was not the end of the expected profit taking we alluded 
to in earlier updates.  Short-term traders will want to consider 
taking profits at $30 while we continue to aim higher.  

Picked on June 7th at $27.50
Change since picked:   +0.75
Earnings Date       05/01/02 (confirmed) 




---  

Oxford Health - OHP - close: 49.33 change: -0.37 stop: 46.48

Of all the sectors we watch, the HMO Index (Health Provider 
Index) is the top performer of the year.  The sector received an 
additional boost this week on positive news from THC and WLP.  
OHP pegged an all-time high of $51.94 on Tuesday but has since 
relinquished the $50 level.  Bulls should take note that the 
daily stochastics (5,3,3) are decidedly bearish and the MACD is 
beginning to curl lower.  Also concerning is the action on the 
HMO Index.  After setting an all-time high on Tuesday, it's 
traced what could be a double-top.  The index's oscillators are 
bearish as well.  Overall, the technical picture for OHP suggests 
a "wait-and-see" approach when it comes to targeting new entries.  
Possible action points to go long include a bounce from the $48 
level (near the bottom of OHP's ascending channel) or a close 
over $51.00.  More die-hard (bullish) fans of the group might 
consider moving their stop below the 50-dma support level for OHP 
but we are leaving ours at 46.48.

Picked on June 7th at $48.64
Change since picked:   +0.69
Earnings Date       05/01/02 (confirmed)




---

Tenet Healthcare - THC - cls: 74.91 chg: -1.23 stop: 71.72

THC finished the week on a bearish note, shedding 1.6% to close 
under the $75 level.  To be fair, not many stocks were able to 
escape the market-wide selloff this morning.  It's not the degree 
of the morning dip that has us concerned, but the lack of a 
strong rebound in the second half of the day.  THC faded the Dow 
Jones and actually declined in afternoon trading.  Also of 
concern are downtrending daily stochastics (5,3,3) and MACD, 
which is beginning to curl lower.  Despite these bearish 
developments, we think the 50-dma at $72.57 should provide 
reliable support.  Relatively low-risk entries can be considered 
if THC bounces from this level, which also coincides with the 
midline of the stock's ascending regression channel.  

Picked on May 29th at $72.98
Change since picked:   +1.93
Earnings Date       04/02/02 (confirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Alberto Culver - ACV - close: 51.68 change: -0.35 stop: 53.01

After narrowly avoiding being cut from our Play List, ACV was 
triggered this morning after the stock hit our action point at 
$51.14.  Shares briefly moved under the $51 level before moving 
higher with the broader market in afternoon trading.  Overall, we 
think today's action is a good start.  The new near-term low and 
reversing daily stochastics suggest that the bears may be in the 
driver's seat.  Our upside risk is minimized with a relatively 
tight stop-loss at $53.01.  What we'll be watching for next week 
is for ACV to break under the $50 level.  This could clear the 
way for a test of the 200-dma at $47.75.  Aggressive entries 
could be taken on a move below today's low of $50.85, while 
others may want to wait for a failed rally near $52.00.  Still 
another alternative would be to wait for a move under potential 
support at the $50 mark.

Picked on June 14th at $51.14
Gain since picked:      -0.54
Earnings Date        05/25/02 (confirmed) 


 

--- 

Furniture Brands - FBN - cls: 34.34 chg: -0.05 stop: 36.76

In the Thursday update we speculated that FBN could test its 200-
dma ($32.22) in the very near future.  That's exactly what 
happened this morning, as shares sank with the Dow Jones and fell 
to an intraday low of $32.12.  FBN staged an impressive rally 
from this level but still finished the day with a fractional 
loss.  The technical picture has been slightly clouded by today's 
bounce from the 200-dma.  Bulls could argue that today's dip was 
indicative of a near-term capitulation event.  The oscillators 
are somewhat mixed, with the MACD still downtrending and daily 
stochastics (5,3,3) in the early stages of a reversal.  With this 
in mind, very aggressive traders might consider new entries on a 
failed rally back to the $35.50 - $36.00 resistance, employing a 
tight stop similar to the one we're currently using.  

Picked on June 7th at $35.12
Gain since picked:     +0.78
Earnings Date       04/24/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------  

Quest Diagnostic - DGX - close: 88.24 change: -0.03 stop: 86.49

Our suspicions were already obvious after DGX broke under its 50-
dma yesterday, but this morning's steep broader market selloff 
proved to be the death of this play.   The stock spiked lower in 
the first half-hour of trading and dropped well below our stop at 
$86.49.  This is a 4.8% loss from our original entry point.  It's 
interesting to note that today's decline was halted by the 81% 
retracement level (May lows to June highs).  Bulls may point to 
this as evidence of a near-term reversal, especially considering 
that DGX recouped nearly all of its losses.  Nonetheless, we 
wouldn't be looking to take any bullish positions under the 50-
dma at $88.93.   

Picked on June 7th at $90.93
Change since picked:   -4.44
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed) 




  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  -------------------- 

Danaher Corp. - DHR - cls: 62.42 chg: -0.66 stop: 63.44

In a surprising display of weakness, DHR found absolutely no 
support at its 200-dma.  Shares gapped under that level this 
morning and proceeded to fall to an intraday low of $61.28.  
Because DHR gapped below our profit-target at $62.91, we were 
closed out at the opening price of $62.85.  This represents a 
gain of 8.9% from our original entry point.  Although DHR closed 
under the 200-dma ($62.86) and the stock posted a loss every day 
this week we feel that it may be due for some short covering.  
With possible support at the $60 level, we would not recommend 
short positions at this time.

Picked on May 13th at $69.03
Gain since picked:     +6.18
Earnings Date       04/18/02 (confirmed) 






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  ----------------- 

Amazon.com, Inc. - AMZN - close: 16.82 change: -0.61 stop: 15.24

Company Description:
Amazon.com, a Fortune 500 company based in Seattle, Wash., opened 
its virtual doors on the World Wide Web in July 1995 and today 
offers Earth's Biggest Selection. Amazon.com seeks to be the 
world's most customer-centric company, where customers can find 
and discover anything they might want to buy online. Amazon.com 
and sellers list millions of unique new and used items in 
categories such as electronics, computers, kitchen products and 
house wares, books, music, DVDs, videos, camera and photo items, 
toys, baby and baby registry, software, computer and video games, 
cell phones and service, tools and hardware, travel services, 
magazine subscriptions and outdoor living items. (source: company 
press release)

Why We Like It: 
It's all about the channel!  In sharp contrast to the NASDAQ, 
AMZN has been trending higher since September.  Its range has 
been governed by an ascending regression channel.  Thus far it's 
been an extremely reliable way to gauge entry points in AMZN.  
Attentive Premier Investor readers may recall that we used this 
strategy on two previous AMZN declines to reap some handsome 
gains.  Looking at the channel, one can see that it hasn't quite 
touched the bottom yet.  Are we early to the party by going long 
at these levels?  Perhaps.  However, our stop-loss at $15.24 
(just below the 100-dma, which, by the way, shares have bounced 
off of twice since January 2002) gives AMZN plenty of breathing 
room.  Besides, we are looking for potential support between 
$16.00 and $15.75 - the recent lows in early May.  We think we're 
justified in going long now because a.) the daily stochastics 
(5,3,3 setting) have already begun to turn up and b.) We're 
anticipating some near-term bullishness in the tech sector.  Our 
initial profit target will be the $22 level, near the top of the 
regression channel.  Of course, we won't hesitate to take our 
gains off the table if shares have trouble getting over $20.00.  
Fundamentally speaking, we're also encouraged by Monday's news 
that the SEC had finished its probe of AMZN without finding any 
wrongdoing.  These days it's kind of refreshing to see a company 
that has solid accounting practices.  If you're looking for an 
alternative entry, consider waiting until shares trade back above 
$17.60 or the $18.00 levels.

Picked on June 14th at $16.82
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/23/02 (confirmed)
 

 

--- 

K-Swiss Inc. - KSWS - close: 46.20 change: +0.51 stop: *text*

Company Description:
K-Swiss Inc. makes and markets a wide diversity of athletic 
footwear used in high performance sports, fitness activities and 
for casual wear.

Why We Like It:
Since September 2001 K-Swiss has been in a consistent advance, 
interrupted by brief 4-6 week consolidations.  The stock seems 
to have just finished such a consolidation, and we feel this is 
a good point at which to take a long position.  The stock 
operates in a near vacuum of regular news, and perhaps this 
silence--"now news is good news"--has served the company well.

Technically, the stock has managed to use the 50-dma as a kind 
of security blanket, trading below it for brief periods before  
rebounding back above and charging higher.  During today's 
trading KSWS declined right to the 50-dma before rebounding 
forcefully off it, rising on good volume.  The stocks possess a 
positive RSI, Stochastics and MACD on its daily chart, and its 
weekly RSI is on the verge of breaking its declining trend line-
-nearly always a positive technical sign. KSWS splits 2:1 on 
June 21st. This could be a distinct positive element for the 
stock--remember the good old days when stocks ramped up hard 
around split time?

We'll take a long position once KSWS trades above nearby 
resistance at $46.61. Once triggered our initial sell stop will 
be at $44.71, which is just below the 50-dma and a small region 
of support. There exists some resistance in the $47.00 - $48.00 
region. PnF chartists should note that once KSWS scampers over 
the $48.00 resistance, it will have reversed a bearish signal--
and that's a positive technical accomplishment!  Although there 
is psychological resistance at the $50.00 level, we've 
estimated--using Fibonacci methods and regression channels--that 
KSWS can move to the $52.00-$53.00 region before experiencing 
another of its 4-6 week consolidations.

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         04/25/02 (confirmed)
 



  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Rational Software - RATL - cls: 10.39 change: -0.68 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Rational Software Corp. provides tools and services that help 
companies and individuals automate the software development 
process. 

Why We Like It:
Fundamentally, RATL has suffered along with the rest of the 
software sector (GSO Index).  Less than 2 weeks ago UBS Warburg 
trimmed earnings estimates and price targets on nearly all the 
software stocks it follows, including Rational.  Rational 
Software peaked in late January 2002, embarking on a sustained 
decline that hit its first significant bottom in early May.  
Since then, the stock has traced a triangular consolidation, and 
it sits on the verge of falling out of this consolidation, and 
beginning a new decline.  

With the enormous volatility that has recently held the market 
hostage, we only wish to enter a short position in this stock 
once it begins to drop decisively out of its present 
consolidation.  Accordingly, we'll short RATL once it trades 
below $9.94; as we frequently note, though, we will not short it 
if it gaps downward, in this case below $9.85. If this occurs, 
we'll re-evaluate our entry strategy.  Once we are short, though, 
we'll employ an extremely tight stop, at $10.37, which is above a 
nearby region of resistance. If RATL breaks down as we think it 
might in coming days, the stock will attempt to find support 
initially at about $9.00. Once this has been breached though, a 
much deeper decline--to the $8.00 to $7.50 area is likely.

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date        04/24/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Biogen - BGEN - close: 42.42 change: +2.98 stop: *text*

On a day when the general market was extremely volatile--and at 
times extremely weak--the biotechs were standouts on the upside.  
The Biotech Index (BTK) was up over 4%, and BGEN scrambled up 
over 7%.  Helped by last night's positive FDA news concerning its 
psoriasis drug, and today's SunTrust Robinson Humphrey's rating 
of "outperform", BGEN's strength was accompanied by healthy moves 
in AMGN and MLNM, among others.  But Biogen's advance on Friday 
still left it short of our trigger point, and this trade remains 
to be initiated.  Our strategy has been changed just slightly:  
we still wish to only go long once BGEN moves into its gap, but 
we've upped the entry level to $43.60; please remember that we 
will NOT buy it if it gaps up into the +$43.00 region; we want to 
buy it as it simply trades into this region.  Finally, once 
triggered, we will use a sell stop of $41.10.  We'll be looking 
for BGEN to advance all the way to the top of the gap, and 
resistance in that area, which is in the $47.00 - 48.50.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date        7/18/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Conexant Systems - CNXT - close: 7.82 change: -0.18 stop: *text*

CNXT closed down about 2% today, proportionally more than the SOX 
Index.  If the NASDAQ is able to continue its winning ways next 
week, though, we think this play will be triggered. Technically, 
the stock is trying to move out of an oversold condition on both 
the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator.  As we said on Thursday 
evening, we will only take a long position in Conexant once it 
moves above its near-term high of $5.40-- but we will NOT enter 
the play if CNXT gaps above $5.45.  Once triggered, we'll employ 
a stop-loss at $4.99.  Our profit-target is at $6.39, just below 
a shelf of near term resistance.

Picked on June xth at xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:  +0.00
Earnings Date      04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 21.28 change: +0.17 stop: *text*

Our long play in INTC has yet to be triggered.  With today's 
impressive reversal in the NASDAQ and several of the tech 
indexes--Semiconductor, Software, Networking--we think that we 
may be within just a few days of having our long plays initiated.  
We continue to like INTC because it possesses a gap above $22.75, 
has now produced a nice double bottom with bullish RSI divergence 
on our daily chart, and is sporting a rapidly improving MACD.  
Our strategy is to simply take a quick trade in the stock as it 
fills the gap above $22.75.  We won't go long until shares trade 
at or above $22.77.  And we WILL NOT enter the play if INTC gaps 
above $23.00.  Our profit target remains at the $26.00 level.   

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       10/15/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Johnson Controls - JCI - close: 82.33 change: -0.24 stop: 79.94

One day after JCI workers at 4 plants went on strike, the labor 
dispute--which had affected both General Motors and 
DaimlerChrysler--was resolved.  With this irritation out of the 
way, Robert Baird Securities raised its rating on JCI this 
afternoon to "Market Outperform," enabling the stock to finish 
near its highs of the day.  After plunging over $2.00, the auto 
components maker crossed the closing bell with just a fractional 
$0.24 loss--a welcome accomplishment for sure!  We noted on June 
13th that JCI had formed a small triangle at the bottom of its 
May 24th - June 7th decline--and today's decline smashed through 
the lower boundary with nary a whimper--not a good sign at all.  
However, JCI's parabolic rise off its intraday lows, which also 
occurred very near JCI's key 61.8% retracement (of the January - 
May advance) may be telling us the stock is going to survive 
today's breakdown from the triangle.  If we see JCI rebound 
sharply again on Monday or Tuesday -- with its prices pushing 
back into the triangle -- some traders may want to wait for a 
move back over the $84 level.  Other traders who prefer a lower 
risk entry might consider entries here with our stop just under 
$80.  If a trader entered at 82.33, the risk with a stop at 79.94 
is less than 3% (if shares don't gap below the stop).  FYI, keep 
an eye on the 10-dma, which has been resistance this last week.

Picked on June 7th at $83.31
Gain since picked:     -0.99
Earnings Date       07/18/02 (confirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Maytag Corp - MYG - close: 43.30 change: -1.15 stop: 44.04 *new*

Maytag gapped down at the open on Friday, leaving an "island 
reversal" price pattern.   These structures are formed by a gap 
up, and then a gap down (or visa versa)--with an "island" in 
between--and they are generally good indications that the initial 
gap (up, in this case) was a fake, and that the new direction the 
stock will follow will be that of the most recent gap.  That's 
pleasing to us, since the current gap is downward.  We've 
generated a tidy little 3% gain in this trade, and are reluctant 
to let it evaporate--or become a loss--if the market strengthens 
next week. Accordingly, we've tightened our stop to $44.04.  

We continue to have an initial price target of $38.75.  

Picked on June xth at $44.50 
Gain since picked:     +1.50
Earnings Date       07/16/02 confirmed
 



---

Maverick Tube - MVK - cls: 13.90 chg: +0.65 stop: 13.91 *new*

Oil and Gas tube maker Maverick Tube shot upward from the get-go 
on Friday, helped by upward volatility in crude oil futures and 
the Oil Services Index (OSX).  With MVK trading above our short 
term 5-dma, it now appears that it will hit our buy stop if there 
is any additional strength in the oil futures or services sector. 
We're going to drop our stop to just above today's high, at 
$13.91, betting that the oil complex will decline on Monday.  If 
we're wrong, we'll be out of this trade with about a 2% gain.  
No, that's not great, but it's better than the alternative.

Picked on June 13th at$14.15 
Gain since picked:     +0.25
Earnings Date       07/18/02 confirmed
 



---

PPL Corporation - PPL - close: 31.86 change: -1.35 stop: *text*

PPL declined sharply today, on strong volume, as we thought as we 
said it would last night.  The company is under investigation for 
the alleged manipulation of energy prices, and we feel that such 
a story is not likely to be kind to PPL.  Our strategy to short 
the stock on the open this morning was frustrated by the deep gap 
downward that PPL experienced.  It opened at $30.20, effectively 
keeping us out of this trade today.  We are going to take another 
stab at shorting it on Monday morning--at its opening price--with 
the following restrictions: 1) if the stock opens above $31.00 or 
2) below $29.90, we will NOT short it. We'll simply continue this 
process until we are able to get this stock on our terms, not 
those of Serendipity.

Once the trade is triggered, we'll use a new buy stop of $33.22.
We think this stock is capable of falling briskly over several 
weeks to its next major support, which is in the $24.00 region.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date        7/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 





==================================================================
LONG-TERM PLAYS (LT) section
==================================================================

===============
LT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  -------------------- 

Universal Health - UHS - cls: 49.69 chg: -0.30 stop: 45.99 *new*

Positive news from the THC and WLP camps had the HMO (Health 
Provider Index) screaming to new all-time highs on Tuesday.  UHS 
reflected the sector bullishness and traded to a multi-month high 
of $51.15.  Unfortunately this proved to a near-term top for the 
stock.  UHS slipped back under $50.00 and was unable to close 
over this level again.  Shares finished the week with a net loss 
of 20 cents.  Our forecast for next week's action in the 
healthcare sector is neutral-to-bearish.  Both the MACD and daily 
stochastics on the HMO are trending lower, and the 650 level may 
now act as resistance.  UHS is showing similar technicals, 
suggesting that shares may continue to consolidate under $50.  At 
this point we're going to get defensive with our stop by moving 
it to $45.99, under the 50-dma. 

Picked on April 19th at $46.60
Gain since picked:       +3.02
Earnings Date         04/18/02 (confirmed)





===============
LT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  -------------------- 

SAFECO Corp. - SAFC - close: 30.76 change: +0.48 stop: 29.94

Last weekend the sky was raining ash on the Premier Investor 
offices.  In addition to covering our cars with a fine gray soot, 
this provided very tangible evidence of why SAFC traded down over 
the past week.  Many insurers were pressured by speculation that 
the raging forest fires here in Colorado would result in millions 
of dollars of claims.  Constant news of imminent terrorist 
attacks and dirty bombs didn't help the sector either.  SAFC had 
remained safely above the $30 level but traded sharply lower this 
morning with the broader market.  Our play was closed for a loss 
of 6.4% when SAFC violated the stop-loss at $29.94.  Although 
it's possible that today's dip (and subsequent rebound) created a 
near-term low, the stock faces resistance at the 20-dma ($31.39).  
This moving average has pressured SAFC for over a month.  With 
the 200-dma also looming overhead, we would not advise bullish 
positions at current levels.

Picked on May 31st at $31.99 
Gain since picked:     -2.05
Earnings Date       04/22/02 (confirmed)







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factors beyond our control.

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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 06-14-2002
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section three:

Market Watch for Week of June 17th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================



==================================================
Market Watch for the week of June 17th
==================================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

None

------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

BBY    Best Buy               Tue, Jun 18  -----N/A-----     0.21
CC     Circuit City Stores    Tue, Jun 18  -----N/A-----     0.07
SJM    J. M. Smucker Company  Tue, Jun 18  -----N/A-----     0.37
JBL    Jabil Circuit          Tue, Jun 18  -----N/A-----     0.11
LEH    Lehman Brothers        Tue, Jun 18  Before the Bell   1.05
ORCL   Oracle                 Tue, Jun 18  After the Bell    0.12
PIR    Pier 1 Imports         Tue, Jun 18  Before the Bell   0.23

-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

ATYT   ATI Technologies       Wed, Jun 19  -----N/A-----     0.08
BSC    Bear Stearns           Wed, Jun 19  -----N/A-----     1.20
GTK    Gtech Holdings         Wed, Jun 19  Before the Bell   0.43
GUC    Gucci Group NV         Wed, Jun 19  -----N/A-----     0.41
LEN    Lennar                 Wed, Jun 19  Before the Bell   1.24
MKC    McCormick & Co         Wed, Jun 19  Before the Bell   0.22
MWD    Morgn Stanley Dn Wttr  Wed, Jun 19  Before the Bell   0.72
RGC    Regal Ent Grp          Wed, Jun 19  Before the Bell   0.27
SCS    Steelcase              Wed, Jun 19  After the Bell   -0.08
WOR    Worthington Industries Wed, Jun 19  -----N/A-----     0.21

------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

BBBY   Bed Bath&Beyond        Thu, Jun 20  -----N/A-----     0.13
CCL    Carnival               Thu, Jun 20  Before the Bell   0.30
COGN   Cognos                 Thu, Jun 20  After the Bell    0.09
DRI    Darden Restaurants     Thu, Jun 20  After the Bell    0.39
GS     Goldman Sachs          Thu, Jun 20  Before the Bell   0.99
SLR    Solectron              Thu, Jun 20  After the Bell   -0.05
TEK    Tektronix              Thu, Jun 20  After the Bell    0.12
TIBX   TIBCO Software         Thu, Jun 20  After the Bell    0.00

------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

None

----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

WTRS    Waters Instruments        3:2      06/14       06/17
OZRK    Bank of the Ozarks, Inc.  2:1      06/14       06/17
MI      Marshall & Ilsley         2:1      06/14       06/17
ALFA    Alfa Corp                 2:1      06/14       06/17
SGA     Saga Communications       5:4      06/15       06/17
HCBK    Hudson City Bancorp       2:1      06/17       06/18
WL      Wilmington Trust          2:1      06/17       06/18
YUM     Tricon Global Restaurants 2:1      06/17       06/18
PMI     PMI Group, Inc.           2:1      06/17       06/18
MHO     Schottenstein Homes       2:1      06/18       06/19
KSWS    K-Swiss Inc.              2:1      06/21       06/24
JNC     John Nuveen Co            2:1      06/21       06/24
PNRA    Panera Bread              2:1      06/24       06/25
PENN    Penn National Gaming, Inc.2:1      06/24       06/25
THC     Tenet Healthcare Corp.    3:2      06/27       06/28
GMRK    GulfMark Offshore, Inc.   2:1      06/27       06/28
TRBS    Texas Regional Bancshares 3:2      06/27       06/28
STJ     St. Jude Medical, Inc.    2:1      06/28       07/01
JILL    J. Jill Group             3:2      06/28       07/01
MMC     Marsh McLennan Companies  2:1      06/28       07/01
CMC     Commercial Metals         2:1      06/28       07/01
FPU     Florida Public Utilities  4:3      06/28       07/01

--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Earnings from the big brokerages--the Bear, Morgy, and Goldy--hit 
the market mid-week, while tech investors will fasten their seat 
belts--and wear their crash helmets?--for Tuesday evening's earning 
report from Oracle.  This week's major economic reports include 
Tuesday's CPI and Housing Starts. Then there's Thursday's Leading 
Economic Indicators and the Philly Fed report.  Other than that it 
will be a very quiet week!

==============================================================
                       -For-           

Monday, 06/17/02
----------------
None

Tuesday, 06/18/02
-----------------
CPI (BB)                May  Forecast:   0.1%  Previous:    0.5%
Core CPI (BB)           May  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:    0.3%
Housing Starts (BB)     May  Forecast: 1.600M  Previous:  1.555M
Building Permits (BB)   May  Forecast: 1.620M  Previous:  1.634M

Wednesday, 06/19/02
-------------------

None

Thursday, 06/20/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)    06/15  Forecast:   385K  Previous:    390K
Current Account (BB)      Q1  Forecast:-$107.5B Previous: -$98.8B
Trade Balance (BB)       Apr  Forecast:-$32.1B  Previous: -$31.6B
Leading Indicators (DM)  May  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:   -0.4%
Philadelphia Fed (DM)    Jun  Forecast:   10.6  Previous:     9.1
Treasury Budget (DM)     May  Forecast:-$60.0B  Previous: -$27.9B

Friday, 06/21/02
----------------

None

Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

KNSY    Kensey Nash Corp           16.57     +1.82
ARTC    Arthrocare Corp            11.99     +1.32

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

	..none..		

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

YCC     Yankee Candle Co Inc       26.74     +1.49
PHLY    Philadelphia Consolidated  44.22     +1.24
TSCO    Tractor Supply Co          70.76     +2.95

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

TM      Toyota Motor Corp          50.55     -1.30
UL      Unilever Plc               35.34     -1.04
QCOM    QUALCOMM                   29.91     -2.48
HIT     Hitachi Ltd                64.10     -1.60
GUC     Gucci Group                94.41     -1.50
ADBE    Adobe Systems Inc          31.37     -4.82

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UNH     UnitedHealth Group Inc     91.74     -3.71
ATH     Anthem Inc                 71.39     -1.01






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Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





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