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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 06/20/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Thursday 06-20-2002
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Focusing On the Negatives
Play-of-the-Day:  Wilfred Brimley In A Tutu
Market Sentiment: The Street Of Fear

************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************
      06-20-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9431.77 -129.80  9573.89  9425.88 1.33 bln   1324/1639
NASDAQ   1464.75 - 32.10  1503.01  1461.59 1.66 bln   1480/1950
S&P 100   500.02 -  7.62   509.26   499.08   Totals   2704/3589
S&P 500  1006.29 - 13.70  1023.33  1004.59             
RUS 2000  460.25 -  2.67   466.61   499.08
DJ TRANS 2747.36 -  7.70  2766.05  2735.44
VIX        32.50 +  2.79    32.50    29.95
VXN        57.93 +  2.69    59.15    55.73
TRIN        2.24
PUT/CALL      1.04
*************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Focusing on the negatives

Stocks suffered a second-straight session of losses as earnings 
jitters and U.S. dollar weakness on the heels of a record current 
account deficit took the spotlight.  Investors seemingly ignored 
this afternoon's better-than-expected Philadelphia Fed report 
that showed further strengthening in the economy.

The Euro jumped to a 52-week high against the U.S. dollar after 
the U.S. registered a record trade deficit of $35.94 billion in 
April, which was wider than the $32.4 billion deficit projected 
by economists.  Helping to rattle the nerves of investors was the 
first-quarter account deficit also at a record $112.5 billion as 
inflows of foreign capital plunged 55%.  But U.S. capital 
outflows to foreign markets also declined by a staggering 86% in 
the recent quarter.

What is rather interesting and needs to be understood or at least 
monitored is the bond market's reaction to today's economic data.  
Remember that jobless claims, current account and the trade 
deficit numbers were released prior to the opening of stocks at 
08:30 AM EST.  All three numbers came in somewhat "negative" as 
it relates to the consensus estimates.

It's my thinking that the jobless claims and trade deficit 
numbers would have triggered a more "defensive" reaction from the 
bond market (buying in bonds), but the higher budget deficit 
would have triggered some selling in U.S. Treasuries (thinking 
that if budget deficit was growing, then selling in U.S. 
Government debt).

All of this, is a bit confusing as it relates to bond market 
action isn't it?  Later in the day, many analysts are saying that 
they think the selling in bonds today is solely due to today's 
first-quarter account deficit of $112.5 billion versus consensus 
estimates of $108 billion.  After all, the benchmark 10-year 
YIELD ($TNX.X) did finish at its high of the day, jumping to 
close with a YIELD of 4.826%!

But wait!  I'm not going to be so fast to say that today's 
selling in Treasuries was ENTIRELY due to the "bad news" of the 
account deficit.

At 12:00 ET, the Philly Fed report was released and came out with 
a very bullish reading of 22.2, which was well above consensus 
estimate of 11.0.  My thinking here is that this was a very 
bullish economic piece of data.  While the Dow Industrials did 
rally about 50-points after its release, stocks sank by session's 
end.  

But look at a 5-minute chart of the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X).  Was 
today's selling in Treasuries because of the "bad news" from the 
account deficit, or the "good news" from the stronger than 
expected Philly Fed report?  I'm thinking the latter, here's why.

10-year YIELD Chart ($TNX.X) - 5-minute chart




I have to at least question the "blanket statement" among some 
analysts that say today's selling in Treasuries was due to the 
current account numbers.  If we look at the 5-minute chart and 
attach a time line as to the bond market's response to when the 
various bits of economic data were released, we see that YIELD 
did indeed jump in early session trading, but then we actually 
saw buying come back into Treasuries (more defensive posture from 
the market) despite the current account numbers.  However, at 
12:00, right when the Philly Fed report was released, which 
showed a much stronger economic environment, some sharp selling 
took place in treasuries (less defensive posture).  

I can't say emphatically that the selling in Treasuries today 
should be bullish for stocks in the coming sessions, but I can't 
hang my hat on today's selling in Treasuries being due to the 
bond market thinking that it needed to sell Treasuries because of 
the current account numbers either.  

The bond market had 3.5 hours to digest the current account 
numbers, but we see that while there was some selling for about 
30-minutes following the release of that data, Treasuries 
actually found the more defensive buying later in the morning.  
The "real" selling didn't take place until the more bullish 
economic data was released at 12:00, when YIELD really snapped 
higher.

Now.... I will be the first to admit that the broader market 
averages look "rather terrible" into today's close, but I've also 
said numerous times that the bond market is much smarter than the 
stock market.

In my view, equity traders (especially bearish equity traders) 
need to be on the alert near-term.  My analysis of the bond 
market action is that it actually perceived the Philly Fed report 
as bullish and signaling some ramped up type of economic growth 
(as it relates to today's action) and some cash was generated 
from the selling in Treasuries.

Now, lets "zoom out" and re-visit the 10-year YIELD on the daily 
interval bars.  If you've been following along, remember how we 
have tried to correlate the lower YIELDS of the 10-year, with 
price action in the Dow Industrials?  The thinking being that as 
money flowed toward Treasuries on a more defensive posture, 
stocks might suffer the consequences as the stock market is 
starved of cash.

10-year YIELD Chart - Daily Interval




The 5-minute chart interval hints to me, that the bond market 
actually saw selling today due to the Philly Fed report, but I 
still have to understand that the lower YIELD on the daily 
interval and breaking of retracement levels has had a lot of cash 
moving into Treasuries.  It's rather "startling" though, how the 
10-year YIELD snapped back above the 4.801% level.  Just a couple 
of days ago, prior to the break of that level, I thought a break 
of that level may really find stocks in trouble as the stock 
market would be further starved of cash that was flowing into the 
perceived safety of the benchmark 10-year Treasury.  

I made note above of December 14th.  That was a "weird" little 
spike lower, almost like a "bear trap" that we would see in a 
stock's chart from time to time.  As it relates to YIELD, it 
would have been called a "bull trap" for a bond trader.  

I've also made note of the 50% and 38.2% retracement levels.  
That's because we've been using a similar retracement on the Dow 
Industrials (INDU) to get a feel for what part of a broader 
trading range we might be in as it relates to the 10-year YIELD.

Dow Jones Industrial Chart - Daily Interval




Today was a "day of DIVERGENCE" between YIELD and what the Dow 
Industrials did.  Heck, you could say that as it relates to the 
broader market averages.  The main reason I point out today's 
divergence is to simply have BEARISH equity traders on the alert 
right now.

I do think that the "currency issue" is definitely weighing on 
things, and trading action their may dictate the eventual outcome 
for stocks.

The MARKETS still don't like the U.S.$ and that has really had a 
negative impact on investor's psychology and stocks for that 
matter.

I can still here some currency followers and market analysts 
saying "a gradual decline in the dollar is OK, but we wouldn't 
want to see a sharp decline in its value."

September U.S. Dollar Index futures (dx02u) - Daily Interval




While the Euro jumped to new highs against the U.S. $ today, the 
above chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (dx02u) shows the dollar has 
been falling against a basket of foreign currencies.  Today's 
decline was perhaps more indicative of the current account 
deficit and worries expressed there.  Should the US% continue to 
weaken I would view it as a negative.

Right now however, it looks like the only chance for a stock 
market rebound in the U.S. is going to have to be coupled with a 
rebound in the U.S. $.

The action in the currency markets, then "explains" the renewed 
bullishness found today in the Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 78.89 
+4.60% as investors looked to be once again scampering back into 
the group as the US$ continued to weaken.

Tonight, our play pickers are adding Anglogold Ltd. (NYSE:AU) 
$29.59 +4.19% to the bullish play list, just in case the US$ 
continues its torrid decline lower (see play write up).

Not a pretty picture

Darn it!  Our play writers, specifically Kent Barton was all over 
today's "play of the day" in Amdocs (NYSE:DOX) $14.56 -1.68% when 
he profiled it as a bearish play.  The only problem?....Our play 
list was never triggered.

For those that may have "jumped the gun" and taken the trade 
anyway, you should be aware that tonight, after the close of 
trading, the company warned for Q3 and the stock got crushed to 
the $10.00 level in after-hours trading.  The final trade in 
after-hours was a whopping 4.5 million share block at $10.00 
even.

If short, I'd sure as heck snug down a stop to the $10.25 level 
to help try and protect a gain.  For now, we're dropping the 
profile as we don't want to try shorting the gap lower, but will 
keep in our minds in the coming weeks if the stock gives another 
good trade setup.

It should be noted too.  While some brokerage firms have been 
getting a "bad wrap" for their stock specific calls (some 
justified, some not), on May 8th, Merrill downgraded DOX 
($17.74).  On May 23, Lehman downgraded DOX ($17.71).  On June 
14, Kaufman Bros. downgraded the stock too ($16.11).

While some of the downgrades were "buy" from "strong buy" a 
downgrade in the analyst community is a downgrade and the analyst 
gets graded on his/her correct call by either "upgrade" or 
"downgrading" as if it were a "buy" or "sell" call.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician
PremierInvestor.net



=========================
Play-of-the-Day           (New high-risk/reward BEARISH play)
=========================

Williams Company - WMB - close: 7.35 change: -0.19 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Williams Companies, Inc. sells and transports natural gas and 
petroleum products.  The company is also involved with price risk 
management services.

Why We Like It:
Until late May, WMB was hardly a household name; after May 24th, 
though, the company become associated with energy price 
manipulation--a company accused of manipulating energy prices 
during the power crisis that engulfed California, and the western 
United States, in 2000.  After these accusations became public, 
WMB's stock price tumbled from about $18.00 on May 23rd to its 
current level.  Naturally, debt downgrades by Moody's and 
Standard and Poor's, brokerage downgrades by Salomon and CIBC 
World Markets, and lowered earnings guidance on June 10th have 
hardly helped WMB's stock price.

But our interest in shorting WMB has little to do with these 
depressing fundamentals.  We simply like the way WMB's price has 
traded sideways for the last two weeks, forming a small 
consolidation "shelf" which, in our experience, frequently 
portends another imminent breakdown.  Have you ever watched 
someone stand on the lip of the high dive board just before they 
sprang downward? You get the picture.

We've shorted WMB previously and enjoyed nice gains.  We're ready 
for a repeat performance.

This is a very high-risk play because an upward reversal in the 
stock could produce a very sharp rebound.  With this in mind, our 
strategy will be to short WMB once it moves back below our lower 
daily Bollinger Band (5-dma, 1.7sd), which currently sits at 
$7.15.  We will not short WMB if it gaps below $7.03; if this 
occurs we will simply wait for another entry point.  Once we are 
in this trade, we'll use a buy stop of $7.86, which is above the 
price congestion of recent days, and today's high.  More 
aggressive traders might want to consider a wider stop just above 
Wednesday's high near $8.30 and more conservative traders 
(probably shouldn't be playing this one but...) might want to 
consider using a trigger under the $7.00 mark, like $6.99.  If 
WMB breaks down as we think it will, a sharp decline to the lower 
weekly Bollinger Band (5-wma, 1.7sd) is likely; that band sits at 
$3.60.

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         07/25/02 (unconfirmed)
 




================
Market Sentiment
================

The Street of Fear
By Eric Utley

I look like a goat after Tuesday's piece.  The one in which I
opined that bears should be careful, and bulls encouraged.  Well,
that was wrong!  But I don't give up on the indicators that have
made me a lot of money in the past just that easily.  Nope.  Not
at all.

Here's the way I look at Thursday's action.  The NDX was
particularly hit hard, but it only lost two stocks from the
bullish percent reading, which by the way is still in bull
alert.  Plus take a look at the moon shot in the NDX Volatility
Index (VXN.X).  It's quickly approaching the 60 level, which it
hasn't traded above since last November.  Sure there's plenty
of upside to it, seeing that it reached over 90 on an intraday
basis the day the market bottomed last fall.  There's the key,
a high fear level coincides with market bottoms.  So I maintain,
that if you're going to be bearish on this market, do so
carefully.  Use upside risk management procedures all the
more diligently.

The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) is flashing the same
signs.  It closed above the 30 level for the first time since
last fall, which means options premiums are on the rise and so
is fear.  Yes, it could go a lot higher, but going with the
crowd to the downside is growing increasingly risky, and yet
it is crowded.  Again, if you're going to be bearish, be
careful about it.  Be quick to take a big gain on a wash
out event, because I smell it around the corner.

Finally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Bullish Percent
($BPINDU) reversed from bear confirmed into bear correction
yesterday.  That came after the index achieved its bearish
price objective of 9300 as Mr. Bailey has pointed out.  That's
another preliminary sign to be cautious on the short side of
this market.  Good luck out there!

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     :  9432

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9573
 50-dma: 9956
200-dma: 9839

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1006

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1021
 50-dma: 1071
200-dma: 1105

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1062

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1116
 50-dma: 1240
200-dma: 1412


Gold and Silver ($XAU)

The XAU fell back into favor Thursday on the heels of the
spooky economic data.  The index earned the day's best
performing sector spot with its 4.60 percent gain.

Leading the way to the upside included Meridian Gold
(NYSE:MDG), Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI), Harmony Gold (NASDAQ:HGMCY),
and Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM).

52-week High: 89
52-week Low : 49
Current     : 79

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 76
 50-dma: 78
200-dma: 63


Fiber Optic ($FOP)

Nothing changed from last Tuesday.  Yep, the day's worst
performing sector spot once again went to the FOP.  It
narrowly bested the SOX and BTK to the downside with its
4.89 percent drop.  The other two lost 4.84 percent for the
day.

Leading losers in the FOP included Vitesse (NASDAQ:VTSS),
Applied Micro Circuits (NASDAQ:AMCC), Lucent (NYSE:LU),
and Avanex (NASDAQ:AVNX).

52-week High: 139
52-week Low :  47
Current     :  47

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 52
 50-dma: 69
200-dma: N/A

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

Now we're getting serious.  The VIX closed above the 30 level
in today's session, well above the 30 level.  Traders will start
taking notice of this index.  Fear is certainly on the rise.
We're getting closer.

The VXN hit 59 intraday Thursday.  Not too far off from 60.
Here, too, we're getting closer...

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 31.94 +2.23
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 57.93 +2.69

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          1.04        629,987       655,058
Equity Only    0.83        481,697       399,569
OEX            1.08         44,283        47,621
QQQ            0.88         36,300        31,880

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          53      + 0     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    21      - 2     Bull Alert
DOW           46      - 3     Bear Correction
S&P 500       46      - 1     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       49      + 0     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.34
10-Day Arms Index  1.31
21-Day Arms Index  1.42
55-Day Arms Index  1.36

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1440          1759
NASDAQ     1459          1928

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE       86             101
NASDAQ     58             184

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,357
NASDAQ   1,709

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 06/11/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

S&P commercials continued to position less bearish in the last
week by adding more longs than shorts.  Small traders went in the
opposite direction by reduing their net bullish position by about
4,000 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
05/28/02      362,607   442,845   (80,238)   (9.9%)
06/04/02      369,298   440,027   (70,729)   (8.6%)
06/11/02      388,751   457,018   (68,267)   (8.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
05/28/02      172,313     57,803  114,510     49.8%
06/04/02      167,713     58,885  108,828     48.0%
06/11/02      174,357     69,464  104,893     43.0%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials reached a second consecutive yearly high
in bullishness!!!  Small traders reached their most
bearish position in over a year!!!

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
05/28/02       49,669     44,900     4,769    5.0%
06/04/02       47,875     39,100     8,775    9.3%
06/11/02       45,946     36,878     9,068   10.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
05/28/02       12,562    16,969    (4,407)    14.9%
06/04/02       12,162    21,420    (9,258)    27.2% 
06/11/02       14,561    25,330   (10,769)    27.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow commercials continued to ease out of their net bullish
position last week.  The group added a few more shorts, and
dropped a few longs.  Small traders were flat for the week.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
05/28/02       20,289    15,513    4,776     13.3%
06/04/02       20,564    16,169    4,395     11.0% 
06/11/02       20,369    17,172    3,197     8.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
05/28/02        5,709     9,180    (3,471)   (23.3%)
06/04/02        7,114     9,639    (2,525)   (14.7%) 
06/11/02        7,500     9,925    (2,425)   (13.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 06-20-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/f20b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Plays:     MXIM
  Bullish Play Updates:  MSFT
  Bearish Play Updates:  CMCSK

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  KCP, N, OHP, THC, TOL
  Bearish Play Updates:  CBE

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     AU
  New Bearish Plays:     WMB
  Bullish Play Updates:  AMZN, JCI, KSWS
  Bearish Play Updates:  CCK, PPL, RATL
  Closed Bullish Plays:  BGEN, INTC
  Closed Bearish Plays:  DOX

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
                         


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=============
NB New Plays
=============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------  

Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 39.61 change: -2.80 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Maxim Integrated Products is a leading international supplier of 
quality analog and mixed-signal products for applications that 
require real world signal processing. (source: company press 
release)

Why We Like It:

To say that the chip sector is weak is a gross understatement.  
The semiconductor index (SOX.X) has been moving lower since early 
March and appears to accelerating to the downside.  Adding more 
selling pressure to the group this week was Tuesday's earnings 
warnings from AMD and AAPL (it's not a chip stock but slower pc 
sales don't help anyone), plus the additional bad news from INTC, 
RMBS and let's not forget MU being subpoenaed in a potential 
criminal investigation by the Feds.  With today's close under 
400, the SOX index appears to be headed for a retest of its 
September lows near 350.  While many other chip stocks (BRCM, 
ALTR...even INTC) have already endured a mauling from the bears, 
MXIM appears to have plenty of room to drop.  Today shares closed 
under $40.00 for the first time since October.  The stock is now 
threatening to break through the bottom of its descending 
regression channel.  If this occurs there are no underlying 
support levels to prevent a retest of the September lows near 
$33.  

There are several technical reasons that we believe this will 
eventually happen.  The volume backing today's 6.6% loss was a 
hefty 11.8M shares.  That's the second-highest reading of the 
year and it indicates a good deal of bearish conviction.  Today's 
breakdown also created a double-bottom p-n-f sell signal.  And 
finally, bulls searching for a sign of technical strength had 
better not look at the oscillators.  The MACD just produced a 
bearish crossover, and the daily stochastics (5,3,3) are in a 
freefall.  This suggests that MXIM will not be able to maintain 
its regression channel.  In light of this technical weakness, 
we're going to shoot for a decline to the $33 level.  In order to 
confirm a breakdown to relative lows, we won't enter this play 
until MXIM falls under today's low of $39.34.  If triggered, our 
stop will be set at $43.41, one cent above today's high.  Ultra-
conservative traders could use a stop just above $40.00.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       04/29/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------  

Microsoft - MSFT - close: 54.10 change: -0.26 stop: 52.93 

Today's 26-cent loss in MSFT was nothing to write home about, but
overall we can't complain.  Bears may have been waiting to pounce 
on last night's news that Microsoft had refused to offer 
additional concessions to end its antitrust case.  This 
essentially leaves the decision up to the federal judge.  The 
lack of a selloff is encouraging.  It was also nice to see the 
stock finish with only a small loss on a day when the NASDAQ shed 
2.1%.  That's the sort of relative strength we'll need to see 
from MSFT in the coming days if shares are going to break over 
the near-term high at $56.44.  A pullback to the 50-dma ($53.43) 
could yield an opportunity to open new positions with a 
relatively small amount of risk.  However, take note that the 
daily stochastics (5,3,3) have begun to fall from the overbought 
region.  This could portend more selling in the near-term.

Picked on June 17h at $55.66
Change since picked:   -1.56
Earnings Date       07/15/02 (confirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Comcast Corp - CMCSK - close: 24.55 change: -1.57 stop: 26.77
 
CMCSK was hammered today on renewed concerns of an imminent 
credit downgrade.  Investors seemed to ignore comments from 
Solomon Smith Barney, who downplayed the effects of such a 
downgrade.  When all was said and done CMCSK had posted a loss of 
6%.  Volume was a brisk 20.4 M shares, nearly twice the daily 
average.  Our short play was triggered shortly after the opening 
bell when CMCSK traded at $25.74.  Our stop is now set at $26.77.

Today's move created some bearish developments in the 
oscillators.  The MACD (which had previously looked positive) is 
beginning to curl lower, while the daily stochastics (5,3,3) have 
started to fall from overbought levels.  This tells us that CMCSK 
may have plenty of downside potential remaining.  With this in 
mind, we're going to set an official profit-target at $22.11, 
near the bottom of the stock's regression channel.  This would be 
a gain of roughly 14% from our entry price.  Although today's 
decline makes targeting new entries a more difficult task, 
aggressive short-term traders could watch for a break below 
today's low of $23.45.  The bulls may offer a defense at the 52-
week low ($22.90), but we think shares will eventually fall below 
this level.  A failed rally at $25.00 could also provide a 
bearish entry point.

Picked on June 20th at $25.74
Gain since picked:      +1.19
Earnings Date        05/01/02 (confirmed)
 





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Kenneth Cole - KCP - close: 29.40 change: +0.03 stop: 27.47 *new*

Shares of KCP continue to simmer under $30.00.  The stock has 
traded strong versus the broader market, as evidenced by the lack 
of a selloff on Wednesday and today's fractional gain.  The 
strategy for targeting new positions remains the same: watch for 
a break above the 52-week high ($30.50) or a pullback to the 50-
dma at $27.49.  Tonight we're going to inch our stop to $27.47, 
just under that level.  Short-term or conservative traders may 
still want to consider taking their gains off the table if KCP 
can't break over the $30 region. 

Picked on June 7th at $27.50
Change since picked:   +1.90
Earnings Date       05/01/02 (confirmed) 




---   

Inco Ltd. - N - close: 21.89 change: +0.20 stop: 20.99

So far, so good.  After bouncing from its 50-dma on Monday, N has 
trended higher and outperformed the weak broader market.  This 
may be due to its nature as a "defensive" stock.  Nickel isn't 
exactly a precious metal, but investors may still view the mining 
group as a relatively safe place to put their money.  In the most 
recent update we mentioned that our bullish outlook was bolstered 
by the uptrending daily stochastics (5,3,3).  We're pleased to 
see that this oscillator continues to look strong, and also like 
how the MACD is starting to level out just above the baseline.  
New bullish positions can be evaluated on a move over yesterday's 
high ($22.40) or a pullback to the 50-dma at $21.27.  The first 
strategy is probably better left to more aggressive traders.

Picked on June 14th at $21.42
Change since picked:    +0.47
Earnings Date        04/16/02 (confirmed)  




---

Oxford Health - OHP - close: 49.69 change: -0.69 stop: 46.48

Those stubborn bears just don't want to give up the $50 level, do 
they?  On Tuesday OHP looked well positioned to attack its all-
time high of $51.94.  Even in the face of yesterday's triple-
digit Dow Jones decline, shares were able to close above $50.00.  
Today's session was a different story, as OHP pulled back in 
lockstep with the HMO.X and finished with a 1.3% loss.  
Pressuring the sector was news that the Supreme Court upheld the 
rights of patients to an independent review if an HMO refuses to 
pay a health insurance claim (Reuters).  The analyst consensus 
seems to be that this won't have a large impact on the bottom 
line of health providers, but it still provided a good excuse for 
some profit taking.  Traders can consider new positions on a 
pullback to $48.50, near the bottom of OHP's regression channel.  
If shares continue below this level we'd expect the 50-dma at 
$46.56 to provide support.

Picked on June 7th at $48.64
Change since picked:   +1.05
Earnings Date       05/01/02 (confirmed)




---

Tenet Healthcare - THC - cls: 75.40 chg: -2.70 stop: 72.83

It's been a choppy week for THC.  Monday's dip under $75 proved 
to a short-term buying opportunity, as shares proceeded to rally 
nicely with the RXH.X healthcare index.  Yesterday THC traded a 
new all-time high of $78.20.  Although the close over $78.00 had 
us anticipating a move to the $80 level, those hopes were dashed 
by today's 3.4% decline. 

Why the sudden wave of selling?  Without any company or sector-
specific news to explain the move, we suspect that simple profit 
taking may be at work here.  A Supreme Court ruling in favor of 
patient's rights may also have pressured the healthcare sector; 
this decision allows patients to seek remedies outside their HMO 
if the HMO refuses to provide certain treatments.  If shares 
continue lower on Friday we'd expect support at Monday's low 
($74.40) and the 50-dma at $73.10.  New entries can be evaluated 
on a bounce from either one of these levels.  Remember that we 
have an official profit-target at $79.94.

Picked on May 29th at $72.98
Change since picked:   +2.42
Earnings Date       04/02/02 (confirmed)
 

 

--- 

Toll Bros. - TOL - close: 30.76 change: +0.93 stop: 28.98 *new*

Yesterday our long play in TOL was triggered at $30.36.  The 
entire homebuilding sector traded higher after LEN blew away 
earnings estimates.  On Thursday we were promptly rewarded with a 
3.1% gain.  A testament to the strength of TOL is the fact that 
it actually outperformed LEN yesterday.  It's also nice to see 
TOL outperform the DJUSHB homebuilding index, which set a new 
relative high today.  There was a lot of speculation that the 
index may have been due for some heavy selling after tracing a 
loose head-and-shoulders formation.  The bulls appear to have put 
that speculation to rest.  The rising MACD indicates that it may 
be a matter of days before the DJUSHB tests the 400 level.  
Speaking of which, TOL's MACD just produced a bullish crossover.  
This bodes well for a break above the all-time high at $31.80.  
New entries can be considered on a pullback to $30.00 or on a 
move above $32.00.  Note that tonight we're raising our stop to 
$28.98, under the 50-dma.  Traders willing to take more heat 
could use a stop just under the relative low of $27.04. 

Picked on June 19th at $30.36
Change since picked:    +0.40
Earnings Date        05/29/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cooper Industries - CBE - close: 41.25 change: -0.60 stop: *text*

CBE moved lower with the broader market today and finished with a 
1.4% loss.  We continue to wait for shares to hit our trigger at 
$39.81.  This will necessitate a move below both the relative low 
($39.82) and 200-dma at $40.07.  If CBE trades higher on Friday 
we'll probably close this play.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       04/23/02 (confirmed)
 





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=============
HR New Plays
=============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  ----------------- 

AngloGold Ltd. - AU - close: 29.59 change: +1.19 stop: *text*

Company Description:
AngloGold Limited mines for gold in Africa, North America, South 
America and Australia. 

Why We Like It:
Gold mining stocks zoomed higher into the end of May, at which 
time they began a consolidation.  AngloGold followed the lead of 
its sector, pulling back from a high of $34.66 to the $28.00 - 
$30.00 region.  During this three-week consolidation, AU has 
employed its rising 50-dma as a fairly reliable point of support.  
The stock continues to trade slightly above the 50-dma and is on 
the verge of moving out of the price congestion that has held it 
in recent days; it now seems ready to resume its upward movement, 
and we like AU as a long play from current levels to the $34.00+ 
region.  

We are favorably disposed toward gold stocks at this time--at 
least for the short-term--since they have been moving higher on 
both a declining US dollar and declining US stock market.  We 
think both are vulnerable to more weakness in coming days. Oh, 
and did we mention that the price of gold itself was rising 
again?  The June contracts (gc02m) have bounced off their recent 
lows and closed at $324.00.

Our strategy is simple: we want to go long AU once it moves back
above yesterday's high of $29.75.  Please note however, that we 
will not go long the stock if it gaps above $30.85 (or the 20-
dma).  More conservative traders might want to consider looking 
at entries once AU trades over the $30 mark or use the recent 
tops at $30.35 as a trigger point.  If AU does gap higher than 
the 20-dma for some reason, we'll wait for a better entry point.  
Once long, we'll use a sell stop just below the 50-dma, at 
$28.11.

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date        04/20/02 (confirmed)
 



  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Williams Company - WMB - close: 7.35 change: -0.19 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Williams Companies, Inc. sells and transports natural gas and 
petroleum products.  The company is also involved with price risk 
management services.

Why We Like It:
Until late May, WMB was hardly a household name; after May 24th, 
though, the company become associated with energy price 
manipulation--a company accused of manipulating energy prices 
during the power crisis that engulfed California, and the western 
United States, in 2000.  After these accusations became public, 
WMB's stock price tumbled from about $18.00 on May 23rd to its 
current level.  Naturally, debt downgrades by Moody's and 
Standard and Poor's, brokerage downgrades by Salomon and CIBC 
World Markets, and lowered earnings guidance on June 10th have 
hardly helped WMB's stock price.

But our interest in shorting WMB has little to do with these 
depressing fundamentals.  We simply like the way WMB's price has 
traded sideways for the last two weeks, forming a small 
consolidation "shelf" which, in our experience, frequently 
portends another imminent breakdown.  Have you ever watched 
someone stand on the lip of the high dive board just before they 
sprang downward? You get the picture.

We've shorted WMB previously and enjoyed nice gains.  We're ready 
for a repeat performance.

This is a very high-risk play because an upward reversal in the 
stock could produce a very sharp rebound.  With this in mind, our 
strategy will be to short WMB once it moves back below our lower 
daily Bollinger Band (5-dma, 1.7sd), which currently sits at 
$7.15.  We will not short WMB if it gaps below $7.03; if this 
occurs we will simply wait for another entry point.  Once we are 
in this trade, we'll use a buy stop of $7.86, which is above the 
price congestion of recent days, and today's high.  More 
aggressive traders might want to consider a wider stop just above 
Wednesday's high near $8.30 and more conservative traders 
(probably shouldn't be playing this one but...) might want to 
consider using a trigger under the $7.00 mark, like $6.99.  If 
WMB breaks down as we think it will, a sharp decline to the lower 
weekly Bollinger Band (5-wma, 1.7sd) is likely; that band sits at 
$3.60.

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         07/25/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amazon.com, Inc. - AMZN - cls: 17.55 chg: -0.75 stp: 16.19 

AMZN enjoyed a few days of good price strength after announcing 
new incentives for its customers--free shipping for orders over 
$49.00.  But that ended abruptly today with the stock closing 
down nearly 5%.  There can be no doubt that the generally ugly 
mood of the market was behind much of today's weakness.  But 
today's drop in AMZN did little more than bring it back to its 
rising 50-dma that has served it well in the past as a point of 
support.  Although our official sell stop remains at $16.19, the 
tumultuous nature of the market might encourage risk-adverse 
traders to consider closing this long position if AMZN moves much 
below the 50-dma, which presently sits at $17.15.  

Picked on June 14th at $16.82
Gain since picked:      +0.73
Earnings Date        04/23/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Johnson Controls - JCI - close: 83.02 change: -2.64 stop: 79.94

On June 18th, JCI traded up to $87.10, a level just below the key 
61.8% retracement of its May 24 - June 14 decline; this 
retracement coincided with JCI's 50-dma.  In the two days since, 
the stock has pulled back considerably.  We noted on June 18th 
that particularly bearish traders might want take profits soon in 
JCI; with today's move back to the $83.00 level, that perspective 
was certainly useful. JCI's 200-dma sits at $81.14, and it will 
be important that JCI remain above that support in coming days.  
As we said on Tuesday evening, new positions in JCI should be 
deferred until the 50-dma is decisively smashed or shares bounce 
off their 200-dma yet again.  This latter approach would offer a 
much lower risk entry given our stop just under the $80 level.

Picked on June 7th at $83.31
Gain since picked:     -0.29
Earnings Date       07/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

K-Swiss Inc. - KSWS - cls: 48.84 chg: +0.68 stop: 48.51 *new*

KSWS continues to enjoy persistent buying ahead of its June 24th 
2-for-1 stock split. The stock has now reached its 127% 
Fibonacci retracement (of its May 24 - June 6 decline).  
Although it is certainly possible that KSWS will continue to 
advance to its other key "rally-mode" retracement of 161.8% 
($51.75) before serious profit taking, the ugly mood of the 
stock market leaves us feeling grateful for the current 4.8% 
gain in this position.  As such, we've elected to tighten our 
sell stop, effectively turning it into a stranglehold.  The new 
stop is $48.51.

Picked on June 18th at $46.61
Change since picked:    +2.23
Earnings Date         07/25/02 (unconfirmed)
 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  -------------------- 

Crown Cork Seal - CCK - close: 6.65 change: -0.82 stop: 8.21

CCK opened this morning at $7.31, which was at the lower end of 
our $7.25 - $7.60 trigger range.  We are now hypothetically short 
the stock at $7.31, and are using a buy stop of $8.21.  We think 
the stock can hit at least $6.00 in coming days, though a move to 
the 200-dma, at about $5.40, now seems within reach.  
Accordingly, we are going to use $5.40 as our official profit 
target as of this evening. Today's sharp 9% decline came on 
strong volume; this continues to support the notion of lower 
prices in coming days.

Picked on June 20th at $7.31 
Change since picked:   +0.00
Earnings Date        07/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

PPL Corp - PPL - close: 31.30 change: -0.05 stop: 33.22

PPL replied to the Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission (PUC) 
today, saying that the energy company did not attempt to 
manipulate prices as claimed recently by the PUC.  In a separate 
action, the company publicly announced that 26 of its officers 
purchased in aggregate over 21,000 shares of PPL.  The action was 
taken to demonstrate confidence in the company's innocence and, 
obviously, its future.

Even with these actions, PPL struggled today along with the rest 
of the stock market.  Noticeably higher volume accompanied 
today's decline relative to that of the last two days when PPL 
attempted to rally.  This, to us, is bearish.  The price chart of 
this stock continues to demonstrate deteriorating momentum as 
indicated by its weekly RSI, MACD and Stochastic Oscillator.  

Picked on June 19th at $31.60 
Gain since picked:      +0.30
Earnings Date          7/18/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Rational Software - RATL - cls: 10.21 change: -0.72 stop: *text*

The Software Index (GSO) took a 2.5% hit today, but RATL stomped 
all over that meager decline with its own 7% swhooooosh downward.  
The stock still remains above our $9.94 (or lower) trigger point.  
We suspect, however, that this trade may be triggered within the 
next day or two--the stock is begging to fall out of its four-
week consolidation triangle. Please note:  we will not short RATL 
if it gaps below $9.70.  RATL's price chart continues to look 
ripe for a pronounced breakdown. Once we are short we'll employ a 
stop at $11.05.  We still feel that a decline to the $7.50-$8.00 
region is likely. 

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date        04/24/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  -------------------- 

Biogen - BGEN - close: 40.94 change: -0.79 stop: 41.10

Biotechnology heavyweight Genzyme painted a negative earnings 
picture Wednesday night when it warned analysts that they should 
anticipate lower than expected earnings from the company for the 
current quarter.  With that as a backdrop for the biotechnology 
sector, the Biotechnology Index (BTK) dropped nearly 5% in 
Thursday's trading.  Although BGEN declined less than half that, 
the stock nonetheless experienced enough selling to hit our sell 
stop at $41.10.  Our trade was closed with a 5.7% loss.

Picked on June xth at $43.60
Gain since picked:     -2.50
Earnings Date        7/18/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 19.24 change: -0.85 stop: 19.84 

Today, INTC effectively broke down from its two-week attempt to 
rebound following the stock's June 7th plunge.  Intel mirrored 
the Semiconductor's 4.8% drop with its own -4.25% move, closing 
well under the psychologically significant $20.00 level.  
Technically, the stock now looks about the way Richard Nixon did 
the day he resigned from the Presidency.  The unrelenting string 
of bad news in recent days from the tech sector was simply too 
much for this stock, and for our long position in it.  It goes 
without saying that today's drop was enough to stop us out of 
this trade at $19.84; we leave this messy stock with a very 
frustrating hypothetical loss of 12.8%.  

Picked on June 18th at $22.77 
Gain since picked:      -2.93
Earnings Date        10/15/02 (unconfirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  -------------------- 

Amdocs Ltd - DOX - close: 14.56 change: -0.25 stop: *text*

We're about as depressed as Tommy Lee was when he found out Pam 
was hangin' with the Kid.  As PI readers might remember, DOX was 
our Play of the Day last night. Kent Barton, our resident Tom 
Cruise look-a-like and apparent stock picking genius, had 
selected this stock, much to his credit. We wanted to short DOX 
under $14.45 and Kent thought the stock could trade down to the 
psychologically significant $10.00 level.  Our trigger was missed 
by a crummy $0.10 today.  Then, after the bell today, Amdocs 
announces that it expects lower earnings in the current quarter, 
that it is replacing its CEO, and cutting jobs.  After-hours 
trades showed that at least one 4.5 million share block of the 
stock, and numerous other smaller ones, traded at $10.00--Kent, 
you da man!--and we're no longer interested in shorting the stock 
tomorrow with that kind of horrific gap likely at the open. It 
makes us nearly ill that this one got away from us. Dang!

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date         7/23/02 (confirmed)
 





==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

COL     Rockwell Collins Inc       26.57     +0.97
DHI     D.R.Horton Inc             26.25     +0.79
WTNY    Whitney Holding            34.52     +0.76
HR      Healthcare Realty Trust    31.22     +0.52
CBL     CBL & Assoc Properties     39.68     +0.60
MAC     Macerich Co                29.98     +0.83

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

WOR     Worthington Industries     16.36     +1.36
TENT    Total Entertainment Rest.  16.50     +1.49

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

LEN     Lennar Corp                61.55     +2.37
PHM     Pulte Homes Inc            58.60     +2.40
FNF     Fidelity National          31.74     +1.28
LMT     Lockheed Martin Corp       70.00     +1.80
PHLY    Philadelphia Consolidate   47.05     +2.24
CDI     CDI Corp                   27.80     +1.72
BLUD    Immucor Inc                21.70     +3.06

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CCU     Clear Channel Comm.        39.70     -4.38
S       Sears Roebuck & Co         54.95     -1.52
MXIM    Maxim Integrated Prod.     39.61     -2.80
WPPGY   WPP Group Plc ADR          43.75     -1.59
LLTC    Linear Technology Corp     30.23     -2.43
GDT     Guidant Corp               30.54     -2.43

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

PRX     Pharmaceutical Resources   27.30     -1.46



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