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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 06/21/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 06-21-2002
                                                    section 1 of 3
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      The Bear's Last, Vicious Roar
Play-of-the-Day:  Bears Applying Pressure
Watch List:       INTC, LMT, AOL, TBH, ACV, MO, EP, and tons more!
Market Sentiment: Somebody Please Pass the Towel

******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
        WE 6-21          WE 6-14          WE 6-07          WE 5-31 
DOW     9253.79 -220.42  9474.21 -115.46  9589.67 -335.58  -179.01  
Nasdaq  1440.95 - 63.79  1504.74 - 30.74  1535.48 - 80.25  - 45.76 
S&P-100  489.42 - 12.34   501.76 -  5.56   507.32 - 21.88  - 10.72 
S&P-500  989.13 - 18.14  1007.27 - 20.26  1027.53 - 39.61  - 16.68 
W5000   9389.98 -159.74  9549.72 -202.97  9752.69 -353.80  -144.15 
RUT      461.07 +  2.00   459.07 - 11.44   470.51 - 16.96  -  6.17 
TRAN    2755.64 + 82.50  2673.14 - 13.52  2686.66 - 62.60  +  5.59 
VIX       31.28 +  1.35    29.93 +  3.28    26.65 +  3.75  +  1.64 
VXN       59.30 +  3.63    55.67 +  3.43    52.24 +  6.29  +  3.09 
TRIN       2.01             1.34             1.30             1.11        
Put/Call   1.27             1.15              .79              .73               
******************************************************************


===========
Market Wrap
===========

THE BEAR'S LAST, VICIOUS ROAR

I remain bearish--but think we are now nearing the wicked 
swoooosh that will allow the markets to find a real bottom.

When I look at the technical charts of the major averages, and 
key indexes like the SOX, I see one thing: increasing downside 
momentum that is likely to end in a rather horrid sell-off in 
coming days.

When I wrote Wednesday's Market Wrap, I noted that 1) Ten year US 
Treasury yields were likely to continue lower, meaning that the 
equity markets were going lower as well and 2) the Market 
Volatility Index (VIX) seemed poised to rise further--confirming 
the notion of more market weakness--until it peaks at a reading 
in the 34-42 range.  

My theme for tonight continues Wednesday's perspective.  Tonight, 
though, I believe there's a good chance we are going to see a 
final, wicked convergence in the movements of the US Dollar Index 
(DX00Y), Ten Year Treasury Yield Index (TNX), Market Volatility 
Index (VIX) and the Dow/NASDAQ.  This convergence of all things 
bad, so to speak, should result in a market, uh, "decline" which 
finally gives us a serious, tradable bottom.  

Yes, I know: I'm probably a fool for even suggesting that I might 
have a clue as to what is likely to occur in the next week or 
two.  But I do, and you're going to have to forgive me for my 
lack of intellectual modesty.

Sometime in the next week--maybe two, though sooner is more 
likely than later, I believe--I'm going to be looking for these 
indexes to reach "reversal levels."  There is great danger in 
attempting to "call" a bottom. But I am a forecaster at heart, 
and all of the major indexes seem to be converging on key 
retracement levels.....levels that produce meaningful reversals.  
So here goes:  here's the scenario for which I'll be watching:

US Dollar Index (DX00Y):  The dollar is set to continue its 
plunge from today's 108 close to at least the 106.65 level 
(161.8% retracement of Sept. 2001 - Feb. 2002 advance).  A spike 
to the 102 level might occur in a sharp sell-off.  I don't see 
anything lower for the dollar.

Ten Year Yield Index (TNX): The TNX seems set to continue its 
decline from today's close of 4.76% to 4.40% - 4.60%  (the 61.8% 
or 78.6% retracements, respectively, of its October, 2001 - March 
2002 advance).  Good news if you are a holder of Treasuries.

The Market Volatility Index (VIX):  This index, which closed at 
31.56 today, is demonstrating enough momentum to take it to the 
38 - 42 region.  This is slightly different than Wednesday 
night's remarks; unless the market just implodes, something on 
either side of 40 is likely to signal a market reversal, and the 
beginning of an intermediate term market rebound.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU):  The Dow finished today 
at 9254.  The most likely level for the Dow to find a bottom now 
seems to be in the 8800 region, roughly the range of its 78.6% 
Fibonacci retracement of the Sept. 2001 - March 2002 advance. 

The Nasdaq Composite (COMPX):  The COMPX closed today at 1440, 
and performed fairly well given the weakness in the Dow.  But 
this index looks like it is going to decline all the way to the 
127% retracement of its Sept. 2001 - Jan. 2002 advance.  
Interpretation:  The COMPX is headed down another 200 points, to 
1225-1250 before this mess is concluded.

The next two weeks are likely to be very difficult for investors.  
But then we should be set to start doing the one thing that's 
been missing over the last year: investing.

Today's Market:  

Another Friday, but this time, no rebound.  The NASDAQ somehow 
held up while the Dow crumbled and major indexes like Software 
(GSO), Networking (NWX), Biotech (BTK), Combined Telecom, 
Wireless, and Pharmaceutical were hitting or nearing multi-year 
lows.  

The big news today surrounded the continuing plunge of the US 
Dollar.  Money flew out of equities and ran to Treasuries.  The 
weaker dollar encouraged foreign investors to sell their big cap 
US stocks, and that took its toll on the Dow, in particular.  In 
the end today, the Ten-Year Treasury Note finished up in price 
and down in yield, at 4.76%. The ten-year seems to be a parking 
lot for the money jettisoning out of equities.  After being off 
more than 200 points, the Dow sprang back to finish with a loss 
of 178 points, at 9254.  The S&P 500 followed closely behind, 
dropping 17 points to 989.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite was 
able to lose just 24 points--I guess we could call that an 
accomplishment--posting a close of 1441.  The COMPX was helped by 
the Russell 2000 Index which did not have a losing day; it ended 
up, fractionally, finishing at 461.

Here are some of the key developments that took place during 
today's trading:

Stocks like IBM, Microsoft (MSFT), United Technology (UTX), and 
Micron Technology (MU) today were on the receiving end of 
downgrades and/or lowered EPS revisions. IBM and INTC managed to 
hit new multi-year lows--certainly a very negative event for the 
broader market--with Big Blue closing at $68.75 and the Pentium 
People finishing below $19.00

Although Soundview lowered its rating of Dell, the boys over at 
Salomon Smith Barney countered with an upgrade, and DELL actually 
ended in green today, up a nickel.  Prudential raised its rating 
on Solectron (SOL); QUALCOMM (QCOM)--get this--said that it 
expects to meet or exceed guidance.  The world is one crazy 
place.

But QUALCOMM's positive spin on its business was whacked across 
the forehead by Banc of America Securities, which downgraded much 
of the wireless sector, including MOT, ERICY, RFMD, ANEN and, of 
course, QCOM.  Moody's jumped into the foray later in the day, 
announcing that its outlook for the US wireless industry had been 
changed to negative, based on decelerating growth in the 
industry, and greater competitiveness. 

In the end, investors pulled their money out of anything that 
didn't have to do with homebuilding.

Getting Ready For Monday, June 24th.

A pile of economic reports will be released next week, and the 
Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on Tuesday 
and Wednesday.  Here's the lowdown on next week's EKG of the US 
economy:

Tuesday sees the release of Consumer Confidence, Existing Home 
Sales, and the start of the 2-day Federal Reserve meeting.  Also, 
don't forget that FedEx (FDX) and Micron Technology (MU) present 
earnings.  FDX does the dirty deed before the open; MU keeps us 
in suspense until after the close.

Durable Goods and New Home Sales are released on Wednesday 
morning, before the Fed finishes its meeting in the afternoon.  

Thursday will be concerned primarily with the Final GDP numbers 
for Q1. These are released before trading begins, at 8:30 EDT.

Friday addresses the strength of the consumer.  Personal Income 
and the Michigan Sentiment Survey for June will round out the 
week.

Here are some quick thoughts on major indexes for next week: 

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (TRANS)  Closed today at 
2756.  So far the Trannies have remained above the key support 
level I mentioned on Wednesday evening:  2750.  If you see this 
level start to break, you can figure that its current rally was 
meaningless, and that the Dow is preparing for the decline I 
discussed earlier in this wrap.  

The Russell 2000 (RUT):  The RUT closed at 461.  It is headed to 
at least 448--and more likely 409 - 433--before it begins its 
next major leg upward. 

The Semiconductor Index (SOX):  The SOX closed at 377.  I said 
Wednesday that it was headed to "370 or so, unless it pulls some 
sort of miraculous recovery at the 400 support."  It obviously 
did not.  This thing is a mess, and that's being polite.  Its 
next major retracement is at 286.

The Defense Industry Index (DFX): Closed today at 200. I continue 
to believe that the DFX must remain above the 197 level in order 
to usher in a new upward phase.  If it can't hold that level, 
look for a haircut to 188 short term.

The Dow Jones US Home Construction Index (DJUSHB): The Home 
Building Index closed at 387. Important support is at 370.  As 
long as it stays above this level, money should continue to 
rotate into the sector.  Don't forget that we have housing sales 
data released on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Stronger than expected 
numbers could keep this index heading toward a short-term peak of 
what I expect will be about 410.

The Oil Services Index (OSX):  The OSX finished today at 97.05. 
It still looks to me like this thing is forming a large head and 
shoulders top.  I continue to be bearish on it as long as it 
trades below 105. 

------------------

Be careful over the next week or two.  You don't want to become
market road kill.

Siegfried Brian Barger, 
Editor   
brian@PremierInvestor.net


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH)
=========================
(( new Net Bulls short play ))

Network Appliance - NTAP - close: 12.19 change: -0.38 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Network Appliance is a world leader in open network storage 
solutions for today's data-intensive enterprise. Since its 
inception in 1992, Network Appliance has pioneered technology, 
product, and partner firsts that continue to drive the evolution 
of storage. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
To paraphrase Han Solo, we've got a very bad feeling about this.  
Bad for the bulls, that is.  NTAP is teetering on the edge of 
what could be a substantial breakdown.  Stuck in a three-month 
downtrend, shares have recently found support near $12.00.  
Although NTAP has repeatedly bounced from this level, the 
technical indicators suggest that it's just a matter of time 
before support gives way.  More on that later.  NTAP's ugly stock 
chart reflects a lack of fundamental strength.  The news front 
has been relatively quiet, but Wall Street didn't take kindly to 
the company's May 14th earnings announcement that featured 
disappointing revenue numbers.  Although NTAP did meet earnings 
estimates, these days it takes only the slightest hint of bad 
news to send investors running for the exits.  With the "big 
boys" of the computer world (INTC, AAPL, AMD, IBM) all suffering 
from reduced demand, it stands to reason that NTAP probably won't 
be seeing its business pick up anytime soon.

So why do we think NTAP is due for a breakdown?  Well, some would 
argue the breakdown began today, when NTAP briefly slipped below 
$12.00 in the final 15 minutes of trading.  This created a 
double-bottom breakdown on the p-n-f chart.  Although shares 
rebounded into the close, this was a significant chink in the 
bulls' armor.  We're also basing our bearish outlook on the 
oscillators.  Although NTAP has fallen sharply in recent 
sessions, the daily stochastics (5,3,3) indicate there's plenty 
of downside potential remaining.  The MACD is also hinting at a 
bearish crossover.  Finally, we feel NTAP will suffer the effects 
of a continued decline in the NASDAQ.  If you already read 
tonight's market wrap, you know that we're anticipating more 
selling in the tech sector over the next week.

Because we don't want to enter this play until NTAP actually 
breaks though support, we're placing a trigger to go short at 
$11.92, just below today's low.  If/when the play is activated, 
our stop will be set just above today's high at $12.82.  A full-
fledged breakdown should take NTAP to the next level of support 
at the $10.00 level.  We're going to set an official exit price 
at $10.11 - roughly 15% from our entry price.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       05/14/02 (confirmed)
 




==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------

Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 18.73 change: -0.51 

WHAT TO WATCH: We had been hypothetically long Intel in our PI 
Play List earlier this week, expecting the semiconductor stock to 
fill the gap it had between $23.00 and $26.00.  Unfortunately, 
that trade was stopped out on Thursday when INTC began breaking 
below $20.00.  Now that INTC has broken the $19.00 level, its 
technical pattern is becoming increasingly negative.  The stock 
has experienced increasing volume on each of the last three days 
as it has been in its mini-freefall.  There is a very good chance 
that unless INTC rebounds back above $20.75 on Monday, it will be 
headed to $16.55 or, perhaps, $14.70.




---

Omnicom - OMC - close: 53.04 change: -0.58 

WHAT TO WATCH: After spiking down hard in the days following June 
11th, OMC enjoyed a modest "consolidation rebound."  During this 
rebound process, OMC built a weeklong pattern of higher lows, 
from which it began to break down on Thursday.  A decline to 
$45.00 - $46.00 seems like the next move the stock will make.  It 
is an attractive short candidate below today's low of $52.94.




---

Philip Morris - MO - close: 52.65 change: -2.15 

WHAT TO WATCH: RJ Reynolds agreed to pay damages in a smoking 
related law suit today, and that move put pressure on other 
tobacco companies like big MO.  Mo had recently enjoyed a six-
month advance following a hefty consolidation in the Oct. - Dec. 
2001 period.  The stock peaked in early June at $58.00.  Today's 
plunge makes it clear that the stock has begun a substantial 
consolidation.  MO closed below its 50-dma for the fourth day on 
Thursday...then today's -$2.15 swan dive.  MO is headed to at 
least it's 200-dma ($50.70); a move to its 61.8% retracement, at 
$47.25 seems more likely.  If you put a short on this stock, a 
good place for a buy stop would be just above the 50-dma at 
$55.25.




---

Championship Auto Racing - MPH - close: 8.40  change: -0.20

WHAT TO WATCH: MPH plunged from about $14.00 to about $8.00 
during the mid-May - early June time period.  Subsequent to that 
plunge, the stock has traded slowly higher, moving nicely within 
a rising regression channel over the last two weeks.  MPH broke 
down, out of that channel, today.  If you elect to short this 
stock, you'll need to recognize that it is a high risk 
opportunity, since MPH usually trades 100k shares, or less, per 
day.  Aggressive traders will probably want to short MPH as it 
moves below today's low of $8.19. A buy stop at $9.35, or 
slightly higher, would be mandatory.




---

Office Depot - ODP - close: 16.44  change: -0.62 

WHAT TO WATCH: Office Depot peaked in mid-April, and has been 
slowly declining since then.  The stock began closing under its 
200-dma yesterday, and volume increased dramatically on both 
Thursday and Friday.  ODP needs to move back above $17.75 in the 
next few days, or it runs the distinct risk of dropping 
considerably below its $15.50 support level.




---

Trimble Navigation - TRMB - close: 15.34 change: +0.37 

WHAT TO WATCH: Trimble is a lower volume technology-related stock 
that trades about 100k daily.  When shorting such stocks traders 
need to remember that a short-covering panic can be painful in 
low volume equities.  With that said, this stock has formed a 4 
month head and shoulders top which began breaking down on 
Thursday.  The stock is decidedly below its 50-dma and 200-dma.  
TRMB is an attractive short in the $15.00 - $15.60, with a stop 
above the 200-dma at about $16.25.  We estimate that TRMB will 
fall to the $12.75 - $13.25 area before attempting a serious 
rebound.  




---

Alberto Culver Co. - ACV - close: 51.10 change: -0.90 

WHAT TO WATCH: We (hypothetically) shorted this stock a couple of 
weeks ago, but were forced to cover during the recent sharp 
rebound in the market.  The stock continues to waddle along a 
shelf of support in the $51.00 - $52.00 region.  We think that 
the next time it moves below $50.50, it will begin a sharp 
decline.  If you go short, you'll want to use a stop in the 
$53.75 region.  The 200-dma sits at $47.85, but we think any 
support found could be limited.  Traders will want to take 
profits, though, if the 200-dma is a troublesome child.  




---

Lockheed Martin - LMT - close: 70.36 change: +0.36 

WHAT TO WATCH: The Defense & Aerospace sector has renewed its 
sizzling performance during the last couple of weeks.  And money 
seems to still want to flow into this area as the US government 
makes greater commitments to national security.  LMT's price is 
very extended--there is no doubt about that.  But the stock has a 
tendency to push higher, trading between its 5-dma and its upper 
Bollinger Band (1.7sd).  Additionally, the stock has been 
recently moving above the previous day's lows, or that of 2 days 
prior. Aggressive traders may want to go long the stock, trailing 
their stops under the low of two days previous, as the stock 
edges higher.  Let the stop take you out.




---

Newell Rubbermaid - NWL - close: 34.01 change: +0.08

WHAT TO WATCH: Since July 2001 NWL has been trading consistently 
within the confines of a longer-term regression channel. 
Additionally, the stock has used its 50-dma throughout 2002 as a 
rebound point.  As of today, NWL sits both at the bottom of its 
longer-term regression channel and just on top of its rising 50-
dma.   Although NWL looks attractive as a long at this point, 
traders need to recognize that these regression channels work 
well as predictive tools--until they fail.  If you go long, 
you'll need to get cautious if NWL were to decline below $32.50




--- 

Standard Pacific - SPF - close: 34.40 change: +1.10

WHAT TO WATCH: SPF has seemingly finished an eight week 
consolidation, and has recently begun to edge higher, trading 
above its 50-dma.  SPF's weekly RSI has broken its downtrend 
while its MACD is ready to turn positive again.  This stock has 
all the ingredients of an attractive long opportunity.  Just 
remember this, though:  even good stocks have a hard time 
advancing in a crumby market.




----

El Paso Corp - EP - close: 20.70 change: +0.75

WHAT TO WATCH: El Paso is one of the beleaguered energy stocks.  
It currently possesses a price pattern similar to that discussed 
on June 20 in our New Play on Williams Company (WMB).  EP is 
preparing to move below a small shelf of support it has used over 
the last 2 weeks.  Once EP moves back below $19.75, we feel it 
will have begun a new, and sharp, decline.  




----

Telecom Brasil - TBH - close: 20.60 change: -1.80

WHAT TO WATCH: TBH has gotten hammered in recent days over 
speculation that Brazil's government would take a turn to the 
left.  Although the Presidential election isn't until October, 
current frontrunner Luis da Silva has a commanding lead.  If 
elected, many believe he would deal a severe blow to the free 
market economy by implementing a number of socialist programs.  
This will probably continue to weigh on TBH in weeks to come.  
Entries can be evaluated on a break below the $20 level, which 
would be new all-time lows.




--- 

America Online - AOL - close: 15.06 change: -0.94

AOL at $15...Who woulda thunk it?  The stock hasn't traded this 
low since 1998, and it doesn't look like it'll rebound anytime 
soon.  As a matter of fact, AOL looks vulnerable to yet another 
wave of selling.  The stock is just beginning to fall from the 
top of its descending regression channel.  Volume is rising, and 
the MACD and daily stochastics are both looking bearish.  A trade 
at $15.00 will create a double-bottom p-n-f sell signal.  Bearish 
entries can be considered on a break below that level.  If the 
market really begins to accelerate to the downside, we wouldn't 
be surprised to see AOL eventually reach the $10.00 level.





----------------
The RADAR Screen
----------------
( PnF = point-and-figure chart.  rez = resistance )

-- Bullish Ideas -- 

NAFC - Just broke over rez, PnF looks bullish.  Could make
       a move to $36.

THO -  Impressive uptrend, recently announced a stock split,
       positive MACD, trading at all-time highs.

ABCW - Moved over rez at $23 today on strong volume, approaching
       all-time highs near $24.

USFC - Transports have been strong, and this one's on fire.  
       Target a pullback to the $37 level.


-- Bearish Ideas --

PLCM - Traded new 52-week lows today on rising volume.  Short 
       below $12.00 with a target of $10.00. 

TV  -  Recent break below 200-dma could lead to more selling.
       Watch for a move below the February low of $37.30.
       Bearish MACD and stochastics.  

FDP -  The shorts squeezed the heck out of Del Monte, but the 
       the stock is now looking overdue for some consolidation.  
       Oscillators are beginning to curl lower.  May pull back
       to $25.

CC  -  Shares short-circuited this week and dropped below the
       200-dma.  Could take aggressive entries at current levels
       with a downside target of $16-$17.

FMX -  Broke under the 200-dma today on strong volume.  Could 
       fall to $34-$35 next week.  


================
Market Sentiment
================

Somebody Please Pass The Towel
By Eric Utley

This market is uglier than Tyson's last defeat versus Lewis.  Will
this fight end in a TKO too?  The bulls are still standing, but it
feels like they're using only one of the four available appendages.
Meanwhile, it feels good to be a bear, doesn't?  Having your way
with the market, sticking and jabbing, every once in a while
throwing down a roundhouse power punch.  Let's take a look at
how the judges are scoring this one.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) is about 600 points away
from its 200-dma -- an important moving average for gauging long
term trends.  The S&P 500 (SPX.X) is about 125 points away from
its 200-dma, and the Nasdaq-100 (NDX.X) is about 400 points below
its long term moving average.  However many deviations away from
the 200-dma we are now I'm not quite sure.  But I do know this:
It's at an extreme.

Friday's best performing sector was the Utility Index (UTY.X)
with a whopping 0.57 percent gain.  This was once a grandma
sector until the boys of Enron, Dynergy (NYSE:DYN), and
Williams (NYSE:WMB) came along.  Still, there may be some
defensive appeal in the utilities names, explaining Friday's
bid.  At the other end of the spectrum, the Software Index
(GSO.X) was the worst performing sector of the day with its
4.66 percent plunge below September's lows.  Software is
technology.  Need we go further?

For the first time in a long time the four put/call ratios
tracked in this column all finished above 1.0, meaning that
more puts traded than calls Friday.  I really hate it when
these interesting observations take place around expiration,
particularly a triple witch expiration, because I have no way
of telling how much the expiration played into these numbers.
Sometimes it can artificially inflate one side of the market,
which I think is what happened Friday.  I'd like to see the
same observation next Tuesday, which would tell us a lot more
about the sentiment of the market.

Surprisingly, the bullish percent numbers were not hit hard.
Sure, the Dow Jones Bullish Percent ($BPINDU) reversed back
into bear confirmed, but the NYSE, NDX, and SPX numbers held
up pretty well.  And I'd like to point out once again that
the Nasdaq-100 Bullish Percent ($BPNDX) is still in a bull
alert position even after Friday's decline.  So there was a
bit of a divergence there between the price of the NDX itself
and the internals of the market.

For the first time in more than a week, the ARMS numbers
moved back towards extreme oversold readings.  What's
interesting about this particular time is that the longer
term readings are getting up there in conjunction with a high
reading in the short-term indicators.  So while the 5 and
10-day numbers have been gyrating, the 21 and 55-day numbers
have been moving steadily higher.  The higher the longer term
numbers, the closer we are to a very significant turning
point in the market, or so the theory goes.  At any rate,
the shortest of them all in the 5-day popped up to 1.48 last
Friday.

The advance/decline line was not as negative as I had hoped
for in last Friday's session.  In fact, it wasn't bad at all
with a 13/18 ratio on the NYSE, and a 16/17 reading for the
Nasdaq.  See, there are still some bulls out there.  But they
had better not look at the new high/new low numbers.  Ugly!
About 200 new lows were hit on the Nasdaq, and 145 on the
NYSE.  

Then there's the goings on in the Commitment of Traders (COT)
report.  From a very anecdotal observation, it looks to me
as if the commercial interest in the three big futures
markets are buying into the weakness in the averages.  That's
to say, they're bringing in short positions and adding long
positions along the way, reducing their net bearish positions,
or increasing net bullish positions.  This divergence is so
indicative of a market turning point that it's silly.  It
can't be that obvious, can it?

The thing that strikes me as disconcerting is that so many now
are calling for capitulation.  Even the folks over at CNBC are
asking the floor traders when the market is going to wash out
and rebound into an extended summer rally.  I don't like that
so many people are asking for the capitulation; nevertheless,
the numbers here in this column certainly point to that end.
We could see it next week.  Stay tuned!

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     :  9254

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9540
 50-dma: 9936
200-dma: 9835

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     :  989

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1017
 50-dma: 1068
200-dma: 1104

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1036

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1106
 50-dma: 1234
200-dma: 1410


Utility ($UTY)

Wow!  The UTY was the best performing sector during Friday's
market meltdown.  Oh yea, the UTY gained 0.57 percent on the
day.  Wow!

Leading to the upside included shares of Northeast Utility
(NYSE:NU), Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK), Progress Energy (NYSE:PGN),
DTE Energy (NYSE:DTE), and American Electric Power (NYSE:AEP).

52-week High: 376
52-week Low : 301
Current     : 316

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 316
 50-dma: 332
200-dma: 327


Software ($GSO)

The GSO was the worst performing sector during Friday's session.
It lost 4.66 percent, on its way below September's lows.

The Amdocs (NYSE:DOX) warning was the primary driver for the
weakness in the group.  Not by surprise, the stock was the
worst performing component of the GSO with its 41 percent
plunge.  Other notable downside movers included Rational
Software (NASDAQ:RATL), off by 9.40 percent, I2 Tech
(NASDAQ:ITWO), down by 7.82 percent, and Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU),
lower by 6.43 percent, and helping along the weakness with its
own negative news item. 

52-week High: 234
52-week Low : 106
Current     : 106

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 115
 50-dma: 126
200-dma: 154

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

I hope, I truly hope, that the VIX's weakness Friday was a product
of the triple witch expiration, and not lower on its own merits.
That would be something, wouldn't it?  We'll know more next week,
but like my buddy Mr. Phillips said, "I don't like the zag in the
VIX."

The VXN did what it was supposed to Friday.  It's nice when it
works that way.  It kissed the 60 level, but fell a bit lower
as the day wore on.  Still, it's getting up there, which is a
good thing.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 31.56 -0.94
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 59.29 +1.36

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          1.27        652,242       828,451
Equity Only    1.16        463,867       539,982
OEX            1.43         57,085        81,421
QQQ            1.94         34,059        65,908

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          52      - 1     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    20      - 1     Bull Alert
DOW           43      - 3     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       45      - 1     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       47      - 2     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.48
10-Day Arms Index  1.40
21-Day Arms Index  1.47
55-Day Arms Index  1.38

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1378          1805
NASDAQ     1668          1749

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE       91             145
NASDAQ     61             199

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,805
NASDAQ   1,962

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 06/18/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Get this, S&P commercials grew less bearish by a wide margin last
week.  They brought in their net short position by about 18,000
contracts.  Not by surprise, small traders grew less bullish by
about 12,000 contracts. 

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
06/04/02      369,298   440,027   (70,729)   (8.6%)
06/11/02      388,751   457,018   (68,267)   (8.1%)
06/18/02      437,530   487,956   (50,426)   (5.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/04/02      167,713    58,885   108,828     48.0%
06/11/02      174,357    69,464   104,893     43.0%
06/18/02      181,178    88,517    92,661     34.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials eased off of their recent bullishness by
adding back a few more shorts.  Small traders went in the
opposite direction by adding a few more longs than shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
06/04/02       47,875     39,100     8,775    9.3%
06/11/02       45,946     36,878     9,068   10.9%
06/18/02       54,816     49,169     5,647    5.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
06/04/02       12,162    21,420    (9,258)    27.2% 
06/11/02       14,561    25,330   (10,769)    27.0%
06/18/02       20,883    29,153    (8,270)    16.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow commercials bought into the weakness last week to the tune of
more than 3,000 contracts added to their net bullish position.
Small traders made the money.  They added to their net short
position by more than 4,000 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/04/02       20,564    16,169    4,395     11.0% 
06/11/02       20,369    17,172    3,197      8.5%
06/18/02       25,995    19,115    6,880     15.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
06/04/02        7,114     9,639    (2,525)   (14.7%) 
06/11/02        7,500     9,925    (2,425)   (13.9%)
06/18/02        5,379    11,813    (6,434)   (37.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 06-21-2002
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Plays:     FDC, NCR, NTAP
  Bullish Play Updates:  CMCSK, MXIM
  Closed Bullish Plays:  MSFT

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     GR
  Bullish Play Updates:  KCP, N, OHP, THC, TOL
  Bearish Play Updates:  CBE

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  AMZN, AU, JCI, KSWS
  Bearish Play Updates:  CCK, PPL, RATL, WMB
  
                         

==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays 
  ----------------- 

First Data Corp - FDC - close: 38.27 change: -1.83 stop: *text*

Company Description:
First Data Corporation provides high-volume information 
processing as well as payment instruments, card issuer services, 
and merchant processing services for the credit card industry.

Why We Like It:
First Data has been struggling to rebound back above its 
declining 50-dma for over four weeks now.  Unlike stocks in the 
homebuilding and defense sectors, which have been able to move 
counter to a deteriorating market, FDC is hostage to broader 
market forces--and weakness.  Technically, FDC is demonstrating 
an unusual, interesting and bearish formation on its daily RSI: a 
head and shoulders top which has started to break down.  Patterns 
on the RSI are frequently more powerful than those appearing on 
price charts because they are predictive: once the RSI pattern 
emerges, or breaks down, prices are likely to follow.

Our strategy will be to short FDC as it moves below the 200-dma, 
on which it effectively closed tonight.  Once FDC trades below 
$38.10, we'll short it, with the following qualification: we will 
not take a short position if it gaps below $37.50.  Our buy stop 
will be placed above the 50-dma, and associated resistance, at 
the $40.55 level.  Our official profit target is $34.10.

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         07/11/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

NCR Corp - NCR - close: 34.21 change: -1.08 stop: 35.32

Company Description:
NCR Corporation is a leading global technology company helping 
businesses build stronger relationships with their customers. 
NCR's ATMs, retail systems, Teradata data warehouses and IT 
services provide Relationship Technology(TM) solutions that 
maximize the value of customer interactions. (source: company 
press release)

Why We Like It:
The tech sector has plenty of weak stocks, but NCR really stands 
out as a P-I-G.  The stock has been trading in a downward 
regression channel since March.   Shares recently released from 
the top of the channel and have endured three consecutive days of 
heavy selling accompanied by rising volume.  Although it could be 
argued that NCR is already oversold, the oscillators tell a 
different story: The MACD has just signaled a bearish crossover, 
while the daily stochastics have not yet reached the oversold 
extreme.  Point-and-figure enthusiasts will also be encouraged to 
note that NCR has broken below bullish support and is signaling a 
fresh double-bottom sell signal.  

These technical indicators lead us to believe that NCR will soon 
reach the bottom of its channel near $32.  However, given the 
weakening broader market, we feel that a move to the $30 level is 
not out of the question.  To avoid getting trapped in a short-
covering rally, we're going to use a relatively tight stop of 
$35.32, just above today's high.  More aggressive traders may 
want to use a stop over $36.00. 

Picked on June 21st at $34.21
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        07/25/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Network Appliance - NTAP - close: 12.19 change: -0.38 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Network Appliance is a world leader in open network storage 
solutions for today's data-intensive enterprise. Since its 
inception in 1992, Network Appliance has pioneered technology, 
product, and partner firsts that continue to drive the evolution 
of storage. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
To paraphrase Han Solo, we've got a very bad feeling about this.  
Bad for the bulls, that is.  NTAP is teetering on the edge of 
what could be a substantial breakdown.  Stuck in a three-month 
downtrend, shares have recently found support near $12.00.  
Although NTAP has repeatedly bounced from this level, the 
technical indicators suggest that it's just a matter of time 
before support gives way.  More on that later.  NTAP's ugly stock 
chart reflects a lack of fundamental strength.  The news front 
has been relatively quiet, but Wall Street didn't take kindly to 
the company's May 14th earnings announcement that featured 
disappointing revenue numbers.  Although NTAP did meet earnings 
estimates, these days it takes only the slightest hint of bad 
news to send investors running for the exits.  With the "big 
boys" of the computer world (INTC, AAPL, AMD, IBM) all suffering 
from reduced demand, it stands to reason that NTAP probably won't 
be seeing its business pick up anytime soon.

So why do we think NTAP is due for a breakdown?  Well, some would 
argue the breakdown began today, when NTAP briefly slipped below 
$12.00 in the final 15 minutes of trading.  This created a 
double-bottom breakdown on the p-n-f chart.  Although shares 
rebounded into the close, this was a significant chink in the 
bulls' armor.  We're also basing our bearish outlook on the 
oscillators.  Although NTAP has fallen sharply in recent 
sessions, the daily stochastics (5,3,3) indicate there's plenty 
of downside potential remaining.  The MACD is also hinting at a 
bearish crossover.  Finally, we feel NTAP will suffer the effects 
of a continued decline in the NASDAQ.  If you already read 
tonight's market wrap, you know that we're anticipating more 
selling in the tech sector over the next week.

Because we don't want to enter this play until NTAP actually 
breaks though support, we're placing a trigger to go short at 
$11.92, just below today's low.  If/when the play is activated, 
our stop will be set just above today's high at $12.82.  A full-
fledged breakdown should take NTAP to the next level of support 
at the $10.00 level.  We're going to set an official exit price 
at $10.11 - roughly 15% from our entry price.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       05/14/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Comcast - CMCSK - close: 24.09 change: -0.46 stop: 25.76 *new*
 
CMCSK briefly traded in the green this afternoon on news that S&P 
had maintained its "BBB" credit rating on the company.  Although 
credit downgrade worries had pressured the stock on Thursday, 
today's bounce was short-lived.  Shares trended lower for the 
latter part of the session and finished with a 1.8% loss.  The 
stock's oscillators continue to look negative, with the MACD on 
the verge of a bearish crossover and daily stochastics in a steep 
decline.  This bodes well for a decline to the bottom of CMCSK's 
regression channel near $22.  New short positions can be targeted 
on a break below the Thursday low ($23.45) or a failed rally to 
the $25.00-$25.50 area.  Premier Investor is currently up more 
than 6% on this play, and short-term traders may want to consider 
taking their gains off the table now.  To mitigate or upside 
risk, we're going to tighten our stop to $25.76, two cents above 
break-even.  Remember that we'll close this play if CMCSK trades 
at or below $22.11.

Picked on June 20th at $25.74
Gain since picked:      +1.65
Earnings Date        05/01/02 (confirmed)
 

 

--- 

Maxim - MXIM - close: 36.67 change: -2.94 stop: 38.90 *new*

We didn't have to wait long to be triggered in MXIM.  The stock 
gapped below our original action point, so we entered the play at 
the opening trade of $38.90.  Shares plummeted to a loss of 7.4% 
loss and closed at levels not seen since October.  Although the 
$35 level may offer temporary support next week, it appears 
likely that MXIM will retest its September lows.  The stock has 
completely broken through its descending channel, the MACD and 
daily stochastic oscillators are downtrending, and the SOX is in 
a freefall.  With this in mind, we're going to establish an 
official exit price of $33.26.  This would be a gain of roughly 
14% from our entry price.  We're also going to tighten our stop 
to breakeven ($38.90).  More aggressive traders should keep their 
stops above $40.00, while ultra-conservative types could use a 
stop at $38.16, above the afternoon high.  

Picked on June 21st at $38.90
Gain since picked:      +2.23
Earnings Date        04/29/02 (confirmed)





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------  

Microsoft - MSFT - close: 52.28 change: -1.82 stop: 52.93 

To quote last night's update: "...take note that the daily 
stochastics (5,3,3) have begun to fall from the overbought 
region.  This could portend more selling in the near-term."  That 
was certainly the case today, as MSFT led the NASDAQ lower with a 
3.3% decline.  Our long play was closed for a 4.9% loss when 
shares violated our stop-loss shortly after 12:00 p.m.  MSFT had 
previously shown some promising relative strength but with fellow 
tech big-cappers IBM, CSCO, and INTC plummeting to relative lows, 
the bulls were fighting an uphill battle.  It also didn't help 
that the GSO (Software Index) has fallen to all-time lows.  At 
this point the outlook for MSFT (and the NASDAQ in general) is 
decidedly bearish.  We wouldn't be surprised to see the stock 
test the $48-$50 region next week.

Picked on June 17h at $55.66
Change since picked:   -2.73
Earnings Date       07/15/02 (confirmed)
 





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Goodrich Corp. - GR - close: 27.05 change: -1.52 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Goodrich Corporation is a global supplier of aerospace components, 
and services.  Its products are designed to serve the commercial, 
military, and general aviation markets.

Why We Like It:
Goodrich is part of the recently hot defense and aerospace 
sector.  Until late May, the stock could do no wrong.  Since 
then, though, it has been in a process of steady deterioration.  
Although GR has enjoyed a variety of rating upgrades by the likes 
of Wells Fargo, SG Cowen and Wachovia during the month of June, 
the stock has continued to decline from its higher near $34.00 to 
current levels ($27.00).  We suspect that the behind-the-scenes 
reason for this weakness is attributable not only to the crummy 
market environment, but also speculation that GR's debt might be 
downgraded by Moody's.

Technically, GR's price chart began a new short term breakdown 
today as the stock dropped out of a region of support--closing 
below its 200-dma.  Volume has been building in the last three 
days as sellers have begun to romp on GR, and its daily RSI looks 
as if it will spike downward into deeply oversold territory in 
coming days--taking GR's price with it.  

Our approach to shorting GR will be as follows.  We will short it 
on a move below today's low of $26.96, but under no circumstances 
will we short it if it gaps below $26.65.  Once triggered we'll 
employ a buy stop just above near by resistance, at $29.68.  

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         07/24/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Kenneth Cole - KCP - close: 29.15 change: -0.25 stop: 28.79 *new*

It looks like KCP wants to trade higher, but shares just can't 
buck the broader market downtrend.  The stock pulled back with 
the Dow Jones today but still managed to close over $29.00 for 
the fourth straight session.  Our oscillators are somewhat mixed, 
with the MACD still trending higher and daily stochastics 
beginning to drop from the overbought region.  The ability of KCP 
to break to new relative highs will likely depend on whether the 
Dow can stage a rebound next week.  At this time we're going to 
take a very defensive stance on this play and raise our stop to 
$28.79, under today's low.  We have no desire to see our hard-
fought 6% gain turn into a loss.

Picked on June 7th at $27.50
Change since picked:   +1.65
Earnings Date       05/01/02 (confirmed) 




---   

Inco Ltd. - N - close: 21.62 change: -0.27 stop: 20.99

As was the case last Friday, N finished the week with a 
successful test of its rising 50-dma.  After distancing itself 
from this moving average over the past three days, shares finally 
succumbed to the falling broader market.  News that the 
Newfoundland legislature had approved a deal to develop Inco's 
Voisey Bay nickel deposit seemed to have little impact on the 
stock.  Traders can continue to look for long positions on 
bounces from the 50-dma ($21.29) or a break above the Wednesday 
high of $22.40.  Technically, N's relative strength versus the 
Dow Jones bodes well for a rebound next week. 

Picked on June 14th at $21.42
Change since picked:    +0.20
Earnings Date        04/16/02 (confirmed)  




---

Oxford Health - OHP - close: 49.11 change: -0.58 stop: 46.48

All things considered, OHP held up pretty well today.  Shares 
outperformed both the Dow Jones and the HMO Index (HMO), which 
may still be feeling the effects of yesterday's negative Supreme 
Court decision.  Technically, the next few sessions could be very 
pivotal for OHP.  The stock is approaching the bottom of its 
ascending regression channel.  Although this channel has been 
intact for more than six months, the bulls may really be tested 
on this decline.  The oscillators are decidedly negative, with 
the MACD about to signal a bearish crossover and daily 
stochastics (5,3,3) dropping lower.  On the other hand, a rebound 
in the HMO Index next week could reverse these oscillators and 
quickly send OHP back above the $50 level.  If the channel is 
broken we're confident that the 50-dma ($46.69) will prevent a 
more serious decline.  In light of the technical uncertainty, 
only aggressive traders should attempt to buy a bounce from 
current levels.  Although we're keeping our stop under the 50-
dma, more cautious types may want to move theirs to just under 
$48.00.

Picked on June 7th at $48.64
Change since picked:   +0.47
Earnings Date       05/01/02 (confirmed)




---

Tenet Healthcare - THC - cls: 74.75 chg: -0.65 stop: 72.83

THC gapped slightly lower this morning and set its intraday low 
at the opening trade.  Shares fared better than the RXH.X 
healthcare index, which dropped 1.8%.  The index has suffered two 
consecutive days of heavy selling and closed under its 50-dma for 
the first time since early March.  Given the sector downtrend and 
bearish oscillators, we're expecting that THC will retest its 50-
dma ($73.17) within the next few sessions.  Traders can consider 
new entries if shares bounce from this level.  In the news last 
night, THC announced that it had sold $400 Million in five-year 
notes.

Picked on May 29th at $72.98
Change since picked:   +1.77
Earnings Date       04/02/02 (confirmed)
 

 

--- 

Toll Bros. - TOL - close: 30.90 change: +0.14 stop: 28.98

A pullback in the DJUSHB (Homebuilding Index) could be expected 
after posting steady gains all week...especially on a day when 
the Dow Jones dropped 177 points.  But lo and behold, the index 
actually finished with a small gain!  That's some impressive 
relative strength.  TOL mirrored the sector action and posted a 
14-cent gain, tagging a new relative high of $31.39 in the 
process.  So what to make of today's action?  Obviously we're 
encouraged that TOL did not sell off with the Dow.  However, we 
would not be surprised to see some consolidation early next week.  
The DJUSHB has posted six straight days of gains and looks 
overdue for a little backing and filling.  The same applies to 
TOL, which added 10% this week.  If this pullback occurs, a 
bounce from the 50-dma ($29.34) could provide an opportunity to 
take new bullish positions.  Of course, there isn't any reason 
why shares can't continue higher unabated.  Aggressive entries 
can be considered if TOL moves above the all-time high of $31.80.

Picked on June 19th at $30.36
Change since picked:    +0.54
Earnings Date        05/29/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cooper Industries - CBE - close: 40.00 change: -1.25 stop: *text*

CBE is finally picking up some downside momentum.  Shares gapped 
lower this morning, briefly rallied to the $41 level, and then 
tanked with the Dow in late-afternoon trading.  The stock closed 
just above its 200-dma.  If the downtrending MACD and daily 
stochastics are any indication, it's just a matter of time until 
this moving average is violated and CBE falls below our trigger 
price at $39.81.  If the play is activated our stop will be set 
at $41.87.  In related news, Cooper announced this afternoon that 
it had issued $300 Million in five-year notes.  This seemed to 
have little impact on the stock price.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       04/23/02 (confirmed)
 





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amazon.com, Inc. - AMZN - cls: 17.55 chg: -0.00 stp: 16.19 

One a day of misery in the broader market, AMZN held tough, 
finishing the day unchanged.  AMZN continues to trade just above 
its rising 50-dma--a support that has treated it well in the last 
week.  As we noted on Thursday evening, while our official sell 
stop remains at $16.19, the tumultuous nature of the market might 
encourage risk-adverse traders to consider closing this long 
position if AMZN moves much below the 50-dma, now sitting at 
$17.23.

Picked on June 14th at $16.82
Gain since picked:      +0.73
Earnings Date        04/23/02 (confirmed)
 



---

AngloGold Ltd. - AU - close: 28.84 change: -0.75 stop: *text*

Although the gold futures edged up today, to $324.60 per ounce, 
the gold mining stocks, typified by the XAU Index, did not.  The 
XAU was down about 1% in trading today; AngloGold bested that 
performance, on the downside, with a slide of $0.75.  Our play 
remains uninitiated.  As we stated on Thursday, we only wish to 
go long AU once it have moved back above $29.75.  Please note 
however, that we will not go long the stock if it gaps above 
$30.85.  

Once long, we'll use a sell stop just below the 50-dma, at 
$28.11.

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date        04/20/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Johnson Controls - JCI - close: 82.30 change: -0.72 stop: 79.94

After the close today it was announced that JCI had filed a 
lawsuit against Donnelly over a car compass that it manufactures.  
We're not sure how this action might affect the stock on Monday, 
but we do know that the last few days of trading have been 
frustrating.  JCI rebounded sharply earlier this week, only to 
stall just below its 50-dma.  JCI is now only slightly above its 
200-dma at $81.20.  New positions in JCI should be deferred until 
the 50-dma is broken, or until the stock begins a hearty rebound 
off the 200-dma.  Such an approach would offer a much lower risk 
entry given our stop just under the $80 level.

Picked on June 7th at $83.31
Gain since picked:     -1.01
Earnings Date       07/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

K-Swiss Inc. - KSWS - cls: 49.30 chg: +0.46 stop: 48.90 *new*

KSWS is STILL benefiting from buying pressure ahead of Monday's 
2-for-1 stock split. We're not sure how much higher the stock 
can go before profit taking sets in, particularly in this kind 
of volatile stock market.  K-Swiss' stock price is now 
challenging the psychologically important resistance region of 
$50.00, and that could pose a problem--though the new price 
(post split) will be much more attractive to smaller investors.  
In order to protect our gains in this position, we've tightened 
our sell stop, placing it just below today's low; once the 
selling pressure starts, we want to take our money and run.   
The new stop is $48.90.

Picked on June 18th at $46.61
Change since picked:    +2.69
Earnings Date         07/25/02 (unconfirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Crown Cork Seal - CCK - close: 7.05 change: +.40 stop: 8.01 *new*

The Crown Cork gang came to life today, advancing 4.5% on no news 
and surrounded by a market of misery. We're still scratching our 
heads on that one.   Regardless of the reasons for the pop 
upward, though, this stock remains technically weak and has stiff 
resistance at the $7.70 - $8.00 region.  We've nudged our buy 
stop down to $8.01

We think CCK can hit at least the $6.00 region in coming days, 
though a move to the 200-dma, at about $5.40, also seems within 
reach.  As noted on Thursday evening, $5.40 is our official 
profit target for this play.

Picked on June 20th at $7.31 
Change since picked:   +0.26
Earnings Date       07/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

PPL Corp - PPL - close: 31.49 change: +0.19 stop: 33.22

PPL has been rebounding over the last few days, though this price 
action has been accompanied by declining volume.  We look for 
more weakness to resume in the stock soon; it has considerable 
resistance in the $32.00 - $32.50 region and the lower-volume 
rebound signals a lack of buyer conviction.  We now have an 
official profit target of $24.75, and will cover this position in 
the event that news--or the stock market--plunge the stock down 
to this level in coming weeks.  PPL is presently trading in a 
region of little support, and a sharp decline of this magnitude 
cannot be dismissed.

Picked on June 19th at $31.60 
Gain since picked:      +0.11
Earnings Date          7/18/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Rational Software - RATL - cls: 9.25 change: -0.96 stop: 11.05

The Software Index (GSO) dropped over 4.5% today, and RATL dove 
off the cliff with it, declining 10%.  Our short play in RATL was 
finally triggered this morning at $9.94, so we've started this 
trade with a sexy little 7% gain on Day One.   We still feel that 
a decline to the $7.50-$8.00 region is likely near term, and it 
could come quickly given the state of the Nasdaq, GSO and SOX.  
We are setting our profit target, however, at the bottom of 
RATL's weekly regression channel (Feb - June).  Our official 
profit target it $5.50. 

Picked on June 21st at  $9.94
Change since picked:    +0.69
Earnings Date        04/24/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Williams Company - WMB - close: 7.13 change: -0.22 stop: 7.86

Our trigger for this trade was $7.15, or lower, and WMB began 
trading today at $7.08, setting this trade in motion; 
accordingly, we will use this lower level as the entry point for 
our hypothetical short play in this stock. We still think that 
WMB will break down soon, heading to its lower weekly Bollinger 
Band (5-wma, 1.7sd). This band currently sits at  $3.60, and this 
is going to be our official profit target as well.

Picked on June 21st at  $7.08 
Change since picked:    -0.05
Earnings Date         07/25/02 (unconfirmed)
 






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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 06-21-2002
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
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http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/f21b_3.asp
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of June 24th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================



==================================================
Market Watch for the week of June 24th
==================================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

SONC   Sonic Corporation      Mon, Jun 24  After the Bell    0.34
WAG    Walgreen               Mon, Jun 24  -----N/A-----     0.25

------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

COMS   3Com                   Tue, Jun 25  After the Bell   -0.02
APOL   Apollo Group           Tue, Jun 25  Before the Bell   0.24
CHBS   Christopher & Banks    Tue, Jun 25  -----N/A-----     0.33
EMMS   Emmis Communications   Tue, Jun 25  Before the Bell  -0.08
FDO    Family Dollar Stores   Tue, Jun 25  Before the Bell   0.35
FDX    FedEx Corp             Tue, Jun 25  Before the Bell   0.77
KBH    KB Home                Tue, Jun 25  Before the Bell   1.11
KR     Kroger                 Tue, Jun 25  Before the Bell   0.44
MU     Micron Technology      Tue, Jun 25  After the Bell    0.07
PAYX   Paychex                Tue, Jun 25  Before the Bell   0.19
RAD    Rite Aid Corporation   Tue, Jun 25  -----N/A-----    -0.07
SJR    Shaw Communications    Tue, Jun 25  After the Bell     N/A
UOPX   Un. of Phoenix Online  Tue, Jun 25  Before the Bell   0.13

-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

STZ  Constellation            Wed, Jun 26  After the Bell    0.37
GIS  General Mills            Wed, Jun 26  Before the Bell   0.25

------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

AM  American Greetings        Thu, Jun 27  Before the Bell   0.43
CAG  ConAgra Foods, Inc.      Thu, Jun 27  Before the Bell   0.33
NKE  Nike                     Thu, Jun 27  After the Bell    0.75
TKS  Tomkins                  Thu, Jun 27  Before the Bell    N/A

------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

None

----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

KSWS    K-Swiss Inc.              2:1      06/21       06/24
JNC     John Nuveen Co            2:1      06/21       06/24
PNRA    Panera Bread              2:1      06/24       06/25
PENN    Penn National Gaming, Inc.2:1      06/24       06/25
THC     Tenet Healthcare Corp.    3:2      06/27       06/28
GMRK    GulfMark Offshore, Inc.   2:1      06/27       06/28
TRBS    Texas Regional Bancshares 3:2      06/27       06/28
STJ     St. Jude Medical, Inc.    2:1      06/28       07/01
JILL    J. Jill Group             3:2      06/28       07/01
MMC     Marsh McLennan Companies  2:1      06/28       07/01
CMC     Commercial Metals         2:1      06/28       07/01
FPU     Florida Public Utilities  4:3      06/28       07/01
BER     W.R. Berkley              3:2      07/02       07/03
COH     Coach Inc                 2:1      07/03       07/05
SII     Smith Inte                2:1      07/05       07/08
THO     Thor Industries           2:1      07/05       07/08
MLAN    The Midland Company       2:1      07/05       07/08


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Micron Technology and FedEx report earnings on Tuesday.  But the big 
market movers this week--other than unforeseen global disasters, of 
course--are likely to be a pile of economic reports hitting the 
wires Tuesday through Friday: Housing numbers, Consumer Sentiment & 
Confidence, the Final GDP...pretty much everything but the kitchen 
sink!  And of course don't forget that Doc Greenspan and his FOMC 
boys hold a two-day chitchat on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

==============================================================
                       -For-           

Monday, 06/24/02
----------------
None

Tuesday, 06/25/02
-----------------
Consumer Confidence (DM)Jun  Forecast:  109.6  Previous:    109.8
Existing Home Sales (DM)May  Forecast:  5.63M  Previous:    5.79M
FOMC Meeting (2-Day)(DM)

Wednesday, 06/26/02
-------------------

Durable Orders (BB)     May  Forecast:   0.5%  Previous:     0.8%
New Home Sales (DM)     May  Forecast:   915K  Previous:     915K
FOMC Meeting (2-Day)(DM)

Thursday, 06/27/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)    06/22  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:    393K
GDP-Final (BB)            Q1  Forecast:   5.6%  Previous:    5.6%
Chain Deflator-Final (BB)Apr  Forecast:   1.0%  Previous:    1.0%
Help Wanted Index (DM)   May  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:      47
FOMC Minutes             5/7

Friday, 06/28/02
----------------

Personal Income (BB)    May  Forecast:   0.3%  Previous:     0.3%
Personal Spending (BB)  May  Forecast:   0.0%  Previous:     0.5%
Mich Sentiment-Rev. (DM)Jun  Forecast:   90.8  Previous:     90.8
Chicago PMI (DM)        Jun  Forecast:   58.5  Previous:     60.8

Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

KIM     Kimco Realty               32.90     +0.70
FAF     First American Corp        22.90     +0.70
CLP     Colonial Properties Trust  38.30     +0.81
ABCW    Anchor Bancorp             23.40     +0.51
STW     Standard Commerical        22.44     +1.24
CPV     Correctional Props Trust   21.04     +0.89

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

XRX     Xerox Corp                  8.97     +1.12
POL     Polyone Corp               12.10     +1.02
FCH     Felcor Lodging Trust Inc   18.42     +1.01
SUG     Southern Union Co          16.50     +1.20
AVID    Avid Technology Inc        10.13     +2.13

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

GD      General Dynamics Corp     110.58     +1.33
BF      BASF Ag ADS                44.55     +1.05
PGN     Progress Energy            52.25     +1.74
GGP     General Growth Props Inc   50.20     +1.30
DSL     Downey Financial Corp      51.25     +1.30
SHU     Shurgard Storage Centers   35.80     +1.15
CMC     Commercial Metals Co       48.49     +2.15

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MRK     Merck & Co                 49.98     -2.22
MO     Phillip Morris Companies    52.65     -2.15
JNJ     Johnson & Johnson          53.00     -2.04
IBM     Intl Business Machines     68.75     -2.83
ADP     Automatic Data Processing  43.90     -1.49
TV     Grupo Televisa Sa Gdr       38.05     -1.37

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

PDCO    Patterson Dental           50.59     -1.92
CBZ     Cobalt Corp                20.89     -1.95
MSFT    Microsoft Corp             52.28     -1.82
HMA     Health Management Assoc.   20.88     -0.82



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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





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