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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 06/26/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter              Wednesday 06-26-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap:      The Stock Market In Zebra Stripes
Watch List:       Lots Of Shorts, Few Longs
Play of the Day:  Playing With Fire


*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************       
        06-26-2002        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9120.11 -  6.71  9160.81  8926.57 1990 mln   1362/1904
NASDAQ   1429.33 +  5.34  1436.57  1375.53 2060 mln   1432/2064
S&P 100   482.57 -  0.85   485.08   471.24   totals   2794/3968
S&P 500   973.53 -  2.61   977.43   952.92
RUS 2000  452.97 +  0.52   453.46   441.76
DJ TRANS 2637.70 +  9.78  2643.88  2578.71
VIX        32.33 -  2.94    35.99    32.29
VIXN       64.14 +  0.39    65.32    62.43
Put/Call Ratio      0.98
*******************************************************************


===========
Market Wrap
===========

THE STOCK MARKET IN ZEBRA STRIPES

I remain bearish. And don't try to confuse me with facts.

Yes, the market struggled back today from the mess called 
WorldCom.  Yes, the NASDAQ managed to rebound off its September 
lows. But the weekly technical charts--Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, 
Russell 2000--all suggest that the best today is likely to offer 
investors is another failed rebound over the next few days. The 
VIX (Market Volatility Index) still wants to go higher, and 
that's bearish.  Treasury Note yields are still pushing lower--
which they have done step-by-step as the equity markets have move 
lower. 

Now, with that said, I'm not the hardheaded type who refuses to 
look at new data simply because it might change my mind.  Several 
things have occurred in recent days that do have a bullish hue to 
them, and I'll discuss this a bit later in the Wrap.

Today's Market:  

While today's volatile and mostly negative market action was 
ostensibly attributable to Worldcom's announcement last night 
that it had committed corporate fraud, the real culprit behind 
today's weakness continues to be the absolute lack of investor 
confidence in the markets, and corporate leadership. The stock 
market can't begin to recover until the vicious selling comes to 
an end AND investors begin converting their money markets into 
stock certificates. I mean, let's face it:  when executives with 
net worths in the hundreds of millions are playing the market 
game with a stack of cards up their sleeves, its hard for mom and 
pop to feel enthusiastic about pumping money back into a market 
that has simply imitated a water slide over the last couple of 
years.  And it sure doesn't help when billionaire-wanna-be's like 
Martha Stewart--arguably TV's personification of all that is 
good, homey and sweet--is sneaking around in the dark, dumping 
stock and accessing insider information that you and I are never 
going to have.  Is that the kind of market that's going to bring 
investors back?

CLOSING NUMBERS:  When the markets closed today, the major 
averages had recovered most of their sharp opening losses.  The 
Dow ended off just 7 points, closing at 9120, after having traded 
as low as 8927.  The NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) actually finished 
in the green, up 5 points, crossing the tape at 1429.  Earlier in 
the session it had been down as low as 1375.  The S&P 500 (SPX) 
edged down about 3 points, finishing the day at 974.  The small 
cap index--the Russell 2000(RUT)--finished in the green like the 
COMPX, if just fractionally.  The Russell 2000 closed at 453, up 
1/2 point.

WORLD-CON?:  In case you spent the last 24 hours partying with 
Kid Rock, or perhaps trying on Spandex with David Lee Roth--and 
don't have the faintest idea what occurred with WorldCom (WCOM)--
well, then, here's the Cliff Notes version.  

Last night after the stock market closed, CNBC reported that WCOM 
had fiddled with its earnings reports to the tune of $3.8 
billion, allowing it to produce better earnings reports than 
would have occurred under generally accepted accounting 
procedures.  That was enough to cut the stock in half in after-
hours trading.  An hour or two later, the company formally 
announced that "accounting irregularities"--a corporate euphemism 
these days for "fraud"--had appeared in its Q1 2002 earnings 
report, and in all of its 2001 reports, and that the company 
would restate these.  Investors smelled a rat, so to speak, and I 
don't mean just in the US but around the world.  Asian and 
European markets all tanked over night in anticipation of 
weakness today in the US markets.

BANKS AND THE CON:  WCOM stock did not trade today, having been 
halted before the open.  But pre-market trades had it changing 
hands at $0.23, down $0.60 from yesterday's $0.83 close.  One 
analyst came out with a new price target on the stock:  $0.00, 
and that's not a joke.  The banks that helped WCOM finance past 
acquisitions, or ongoing operations, were clobbered in trading 
today.  Investors figured a bankrupt WCOM might not be able to 
pay back its debt (go figure that one!).  Mellon Financial Corp 
(MEL), JP Morgan (JPM), Bank One (ONE), Bank of America (BAC) and 
Fleetboston (FBF) all gapped sharply lower at the open of 
trading.  All improved later in the day as the broader market 
recovered its earlier losses.

All of today's action was not about WorldCom.  Most of it, yes; 
but not all.  Here are some of the other events that helped shape 
today's trading.  

THE FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING:  The Federal Reserve concluded its 
two-day meeting.  In a 2 pm EDT announcement, the Fed elected not 
to change short-term interest rates.  The Fed reiterated a 
"neutral" bias, meaning that it is equally concerned about both 
continuing economic sluggishness and the flip side of that coin--
inflation.  Meaning? The Fed boys are not inclined to raise, or 
lower, rates in the current economic environment.  

AOL/TIME WARNER:   AOL hit a new 52 week low during today's 
trading ($12.90).  A rumor moved across the NYSE trading floor 
that AOL would announce lower EPS guidance soon.  The company 
denied the rumor in the afternoon, and it recovered some of its 
losses.

AT LEAST ONE GOOD CHART:   Merrill Lynch upgraded ConAgra (CAG), 
the big food producer and processor, to a "buy" today; the stock 
was also added to its "Focus 1" list.  CAG is one of the few 
stocks we've come across recently that demonstrates a healthy 
technical pattern (see tonight's Watch List for more on CAG).  
ConAgra reports earnings tomorrow.

NEW HOME SALES:    The New Home Sales report was released this 
morning at 10 am EDT.  Sales spiked up 8.1% for the last month, 
above analyst expectations.  In past weeks, this kind of data has 
allowed home building and furnishing stocks to ramp up hard.  
Today's WorldCom-inspired shroud kept home building stocks from 
flying through the roof.  Stocks like TOL, KBH, CTX were able to 
edge up a bit nonetheless.

HULK HOGAN & MANKIND:   Lastly--and perhaps as important as any 
other market news today--the World Wrestling Federation (WWF) 
slammed consensus EPS estimates to the mat today, reporting 
earnings of $0.22, well above the expected $0.17.  The stock 
popped up over 3% on its report.   

Getting Ready For Thursday, June 27th.

Nike (NKE) reports its earning after the close tomorrow, while 
ConAgra (CAG) reports prior to the open.  Economic reports to be 
released include Initial Jobless Claims and the Final GDP.  
Minutes from the FOMC meeting will also be released tomorrow.  
Maybe it doesn't matter to investors anymore, but I think that 
the GDP might be important, suggesting just how good, or bad, the 
economy might be.

Here's my thoughts on a variety of indexes and sectors, and the 
way the might fare over the next few days.

Ten Year Treasury Note Yields (TNX):  The TNX finished today at 
4.71%.  During today's session, it traded down to 4.62%, very 
close to the 4.40% - 4.60% level I mentioned on June 21st as 
potentially representing a bottom in yields--and the stock 
market.  A rebound in yields to 4.95% should produce another 
decline. If it does not, and yields go higher, this should be 
positive for the stock market.  Watch the TNX; it tells us a lot 
about whether the market is going to be able to move higher. 

The Market Volatility Index (VIX):  The VIX spiked up to 36 
today, then closed on its lows, at 32.35.  Over the next couple 
of days, look for the VIX to dip a bit more, perhaps to 30.5 - 
31.00, before it turns upward again--and the stock market 
downward. I still feel that the VIX needs to hit the 38 - 42 
before we have a summer bottom in the market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU):  The Dow ended today at 
My best guess--this thing is as slippery as my dog was the one 
time I washed him in olive oil--is that 9200-9250 will be the 
region that turns the Dow back downward on Wednesday or Thursday. 
A failed rebound to this region is then likely to turn the Dow 
back down to 8800 - 9000--from which I think a meaningful bottom 
might be found.  

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (TRAN):  The TRAN closed 
today at 2638.  I said previously that the TRAN needed to 
continue to trade above 2750 or I became cautious.  Obviously, I 
have.  A rebound to 2700 - 2725 seems likely over the next couple 
of days.  If it stalls here, though, it is likely to then be 
headed back to the 2425 region.  Some of the airline stocks, like 
UAL, look like attractive shorts.

The NASDAQ Composite (COMPX): The COMPX finished today at 1429. A 
rebound back to 1450 or 1475 is possible. If it can move 
decisively above this, I'll need to take a serious look at my 
bearish position on the index.  As I have said previously, the 
index continues to look to me like it will go to 1250, at least, 
before it has found a bottom.  Come on, COMPX, show me I'm wrong, 
boy!

The Russell 2000 (RUT):  The RUT closed at 453.  It traded today 
below the 448 level--this is the level I mentioned last week that 
was likely to be hit.  Now, though, the RUT is sporting the most 
attractive pattern of the major indexes.  It possesses a double 
bottom with a bullish RSI divergence on its daily chart.  For 
this pattern to be meaningful, the RUT must advance above its 
200-dma, and 38.3% Fibonacci retracement, which both sit right at 
about 470.  

The Semiconductor Index (SOX):  The SOX closed at 483.  It has 
first resistance at about 400, and then 420.  A move to 420 would 
be very positive.  A failed rally at 400, though, just suggests 
more misery for this investment pariah.

The Defense Industry Index (DFX):  The DFX closed at 194. I said 
previously that the DFX needed to stay above 197 in order to 
suggest that the sector would be the beneficiary of sector 
rotation money flow.  It didn't; now what? The 200 level looks 
like stiff resistance short term.  It needs to move back above 
that level from me to warm up to it again.

The Dow Jones US Home Construction Index (DJUSHB): The Home 
Building Index closed at 375. Important support remains at 370; I 
become cautious if it starts closing under this level again.  If 
the index can begin trading above 380, it will suggest to me that 
the index has embarked on a new short-term advance, to the 415 
region.

The Oil Services Index (OSX):  The OSX finished today at 96.  I 
continue to believe that oil prices have peaked, and that this 
index--which benefits from rising oil prices--is forming a large 
head and shoulders top.  I am bearish on it as long as it remains 
below 105. In coming days it might be able to rebound to the 98 
level. Stocks in this sector should be shorts at this time. 

The Gold and Silver Index (XAU):  The XAU closed today at 76.  I 
do not like the pattern on the gold futures--which move this 
index--since the futures chart is sporting a very noticeable 
double top, with a bearish divergence on the RSI. Once gold 
futures are back below $315 an ounce, I think this sector begins 
a fairly serious multi-week decline, and the gold stocks are 
already starting to lead the way. I remain bearish on the XAU 
until it is back above 85--and I don't expect to see for a while.  
Now is the time to begin thinking about shorting these stocks.

------------------

Keep those trading seat belts tightened! 

Siegfried Brian Barger, 
Editor   
brian@PremierInvestor.net


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

ConAgra - CAG - close: 26.16 change: +1.27

WHAT TO WATCH: With today's "Strong Buy" rating from Merrill 
Lynch, and their earnings report tomorrow, CAG moved higher 
today.  The stock has been rebounding off its 50-dma and it 
technically looks like it is preparing to move higher.  The one 
catch, naturally, is the market.  As we've said before, even good 
stocks suffer under lousy markets.  CAG has a nice pattern, but 
you'll want to be a clear bull to step up to the plate on this 
stock or, for that matter, any other long position at this time.  
It is attractive at current levels, with a sell stop placed below 
its rising 200-dma at $23.90


 

---

Delta Airlines - DAL - close: 18.88 change: -1.10

WHAT TO WATCH: Shareholders of DAL are probably feeling a little 
airsick after today's session.  Following Tuesday's close under 
$20.00 (also the September low), shares dropped 5.5% on the 
strongest volume in over two months.  The XAL.X airline index is 
also looking weak and appears to be headed for a test of its own 
September lows.  With DAL trading at levels not seen since 1988, 
it's difficult to say where the stock will finally find support.  
Given the current sector weakness, we wouldn't be surprised to 
see DAL fall to the $15.00 area within the next few weeks.  Short 
positions could be gauged on a move below today's low of $18.40, 
with a stop just above $20.00.  More cautious traders may want to 
wait for a failed rally at the $20 level.




---

Emerson Electric - EMR - close: 54.27 change: +0.92

WHAT TO WATCH: Aggressive short-term traders may want to take a 
look at EMR.  The stock has strong support at $52.00.  Shares 
bounced from this level today and finished near the highs of the 
day.  The daily stochastics (5,3,3) are starting to curl higher 
from the oversold region, which indicates that EMR may have put 
in a relative low.  We'd be looking for a bounce back to the 50-
dma at $56.37, but be aware that the 200-dma ($55.36) could act 
as resistance. 


 

---

Electronic Data Systems - EDS - close: 43.40 change: -3.23

WHAT TO WATCH: In 1999 EDS entered into an 11-year agreement with 
WCOM.  This fact weighed heavily on EDS stock today, as shares 
dropped nearly 7% on worries that the WCOM revenue would dry up.  
A company press release attempted to downplay these concerns, 
stating, "...As of today, WorldCom remains current with respect 
to substantially all amounts payable under that agreement...its 
exposure to unbilled revenues under the WorldCom agreement is not 
material."  Perhaps that's true, but at this point it seems 
unlikely that the $600M in annual revenue that EDS gets from its 
WCOM agreement will continue much longer.  After all, WCOM is now 
on the brink of bankruptcy.  On a technical basis, shares of EDS 
are looking very weak.  Prior to today's high-volume decline, the 
stock was already trading near 52-week lows.  The fresh double-
bottom p-n-f sell signal suggests more selling in the near 
future.  Short entries can be considered on a break below today's 
low of $42.30.  This could open the door for a test of the 2000 
lows near $38.50.  It is possible, however, that EDS will find 
support at the $40 level.  




---

First Energy - FE - close: 33.14 change: -0.52 

FE is a utility holding company.  We like the company as a 
potential short as a result of its deteriorating technical 
formation.  The stock has been slowly edging upward, from about 
$30.00 to $35.00, since late March.  This upwardly trending wedge 
has now started to show signs of cracking, and today the stock 
traded below the lower boundary of the wedge; it additionally 
closed under its 50-dma for the first time in about 5 weeks.

FE might be shorted on another dip below today's low, $32.61.  A 
stop above the 50-dma, and resistance, at $34.38 would be prudent 
once the short position is triggered.  We think a decline to 
$26.75 is likely in coming weeks.




---
Manor Care - HCR - close: 22.93 change: +0.23 

WHAT TO WATCH:  In the last two sessions, HCR has begun to close 
under its 200-dma. We think it can be an attractive short once it 
begins moving under $22.25, since this is the level below which 
its stock price moves into a downside "fast move region."  This 
region runs to about $19.50.  This is likely to be a quick trade 
that generates a tidy little gain over the course of a few days.  
Don't wait around.  If the stock begins to stall near 
psychological and actual support at $20.00, book gains and don't 
look back.




---

UAL Corporation - UAL - close: 10.88 change: -0.47 

Since late April, the Dow Jones Industrial Transportation Average 
(TRAN) has been trading sideways, consolidating.  Although last 
week's sharp rebound in trucking stocks, spearheaded by Yellow 
Corp (YELL), had many on Wall Street thinking this index was 
ready to break out, it has not. Today, for the first time in 4 
months, the TRAN slipped below the 200-dma.

While the truckers remain reasonably strong, the air carriers and 
rails are the ball and chain on this index.  Delta Airlines (DAL) 
had been unusually weak (see above); Airborne Freight (ABF) has 
been in a sharp plunge for a couple of weeks.  UAL, though, has 
yet to break down, and that makes this stock an attractive short 
play.  It is not yet overly extended (on the down side).  UAL has 
been consolidating during the last 6 weeks, producing a pattern 
of higher lows--a pattern that tends to be negative when forming 
at the bottom of a decline, as UAL's is. UAL began dropping out 
of that pattern today, and the stock looks like a short on a move 
below today's low of $10.71.  A stop above resistance, and the 
50-dma, at $12.88, would be prudent.  




---

Weight Watchers - WTW - close: 38.74 change: -1.27 

WHAT TO WATCH: The bears have grown fat by feasting on WTW over 
the past seven days.  Volume has been rising steadily over this 
period, with today's 3.1% decline coming on more than six times 
the daily average.  The stock is now at what could be a pivotal 
action point.  WTW has been moving higher in an ascending 
regression channel since it began trading in November.  With 
shares now near the bottom of this channel, we'd be watching for 
either a breakdown or a bounce.  Aggressive shorts could be 
evaluated on a move below $38.00.  Alternatively, traders looking 
for a rebound could target entries at current levels with a stop 
just under $38.00.  Note that the 50-dma at $40.78 could act as 
resistance.





===============
Play-of-the-Day  (New Active Trader BEARISH play)
===============

American Intl Group - AIG - cls: 66.24 chg: -1.02 stop: *text*

Company Description:
AIG is the world's leading U.S.-based international insurance and 
financial services organization, the largest underwriter of 
commercial and industrial insurance in the United States, and 
among the top-ranked U.S. life insurers. Its member companies 
write a wide range of general insurance and life insurance 
products for commercial, institutional and individual customers 
through a variety of distribution channels in approximately 130 
countries and jurisdictions throughout the world. AIG's global 
businesses also include financial services, retirement savings 
and asset management. AIG's financial services businesses include 
aircraft leasing, financial products, trading and market making, 
and consumer finance. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
A cursory glance at some of the larger stocks in the insurance 
sector reveals a glaring lack of bullish momentum.  ALL, AIG, CB, 
MET, and PRU, are all mired in multi-week downtrends.  AIG in 
particular appears to be vulnerable to more selling in the near 
future.  Since topping out near $86 in October, the stock has 
been trading in a descending channel.  Over the past week AIG had 
been bouncing around near the top of this channel, which lies 
just above the 50-dma at $67.72.  Today's 1.5% decline took 
shares well below this level.  Pressuring the stock was the news 
that WCOM had cooked its books (perhaps "nuked their books" is a 
better description.)  What does AIG have to do with this hapless 
telecom company?  According to a Reuters report today, the 
company owns $415 Million in WCOM debt.  The bonds sank to 15 
cents on the dollar after having their rating cut by Moody's, 
S&P, and Fitch.  If WorldCom winds up declaring bankruptcy (as 
many expect they will) the value of the debt will drop even 
further.  On another fundamental note, investors may not be eager 
to buy shares of insurance companies ahead of the upcoming Fourth 
of July weekend.  Independence Day fireworks could set off more 
wildfires in the Western US.  Recent fires in Arizona, 
California, and Colorado, have already taken a toll on the 
insurance sector.

Technically, the bearish oscillators lead us to believe that AIG 
will eventually reach the bottom of its channel near $60.00.  The 
MACD is beginning to roll over from the baseline, while the daily 
stochastics (5,3,3) indicate that AIG is not yet oversold.  Our 
entry strategy will be to short AIG once it falls below today's 
low of $65.49.  Point-and-figure chartists may notice that AIG 
has bullish support at $65.  Although we believe that shares will 
fall below this level, cautious traders may want to wait for AIG 
to trade under $65.00 before going short.  This would create a 
double-bottom p-n-f sell signal.  If the play is triggered, we'll 
initially place our stop at $68.01, just above the 50-dma.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       07/25/02  (unconfirmed)
 






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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 06-26-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/f26b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Triggered Plays:       AT (bearish)
  Closed Bearish Plays:  CMCSK

Active Trader Non-Tech Stocks
  New Bearish Plays:     ACF, AIG

High Risk/Reward
  Stop Adjustments:      RATL
  Triggered Plays:       ALO, MYG (bearish)
  Closed Bearish Plays:  WMB

Split Trader
                         MYE: 5-for-4 split announcement

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============  

Triggered Short Plays
---------------------

Alltel Corp - AT - close: 46.53 change: +0.83 stop: 47.47

As we had anticipated, AT gapped lower this morning in response 
to the WCOM fraud revelations.  Our criteria for shorting the 
stock - specifically, an opening price between $44.50-$44.99, was 
satisfied when the stock began trading at $44.50.  Shares then 
rebounded from an intraday low of $43.55 and finished nearly 
three points higher.  If AT continues higher tomorrow we'd expect 
the $47.00 level to act as resistance.  Our stop is located at 
$47.47.  





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Comcast Corp - CMCSK - close: 22.87 change: -1.36 stop: 25.76

CMCSK gapped lower with the broader market this morning following 
the news that WCOM had committed extensive fraud.  Within the 
first few minutes of trading, the stock had reached the bottom of 
its descending regression channel.  Based on our belief that 
CMCSK would bounce near this level, we set a profit-target at 
$22.11.  Our play was closed for a gain of 14.1% when shares 
reached that price.

This play really illustrates why we often use regression channels 
to help us gauge entry and exit points.  Could CMCSK break below 
its channel?  Absolutely.  However, the odds are now tilted in 
the bulls' favor.  If the past seven months are any indication, 
CMCSK will bounce back to the $25-$26 level within the next week 
or two.  We'd definitely consider shorting the stock again on a 
failed rally near this region.

Picked on June 20th at $25.74
Gain since picked:      +3.63
Earnings Date        05/01/02 (confirmed)






=================================================================
Active Trader/Non-tech Stocks (AT) section
=================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Americredit Corp. - ACF - close: 26.35 change: +0.22 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Americredit is a national financier of auto loans. The company 
specializes in providing credit individuals unable to obtain 
financing through more normal auto loan channels.

Why We Like It:
Americredit has a weak technical pattern, and we think the stock 
can provide traders with a fairly quick 8% - 10% gain from a 
short position.  The stock is presently trading in a small wedge 
that, once it breaks down, should offer an attractive shorting 
opportunity to active traders.  

Although Wachovia began covering ACF on May 31st with a "Strong 
Buy" rating--and then reiterated that rating again on June 10th 
(what's with that, guys?)--the company was recently unable to 
raise the full $300 million of its June 13th debt offering.  The 
company sold just a little more than half that amount to 
investors.  The primary reason is the credit quality of that debt 
(Ba1/BB), which falls into the "junk" category.

We think ACF is an attractive short once it moves below its 
recent lows, at $24.74. Please note that we will not short ACF if 
it gaps below $24.50. Once this hypothetical short trade is 
triggered, we'll place a stop above recent resistance at $28.13.

Our official price target is the $21.50 support region.  Gains 
should be booked once ACF hits or exceeds this level.

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         08/06/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

American Intl Group - AIG - cls: 66.24 chg: -1.02 stop: *text*

Company Description:
AIG is the world's leading U.S.-based international insurance and 
financial services organization, the largest underwriter of 
commercial and industrial insurance in the United States, and 
among the top-ranked U.S. life insurers. Its member companies 
write a wide range of general insurance and life insurance 
products for commercial, institutional and individual customers 
through a variety of distribution channels in approximately 130 
countries and jurisdictions throughout the world. AIG's global 
businesses also include financial services, retirement savings 
and asset management. AIG's financial services businesses include 
aircraft leasing, financial products, trading and market making, 
and consumer finance. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
A cursory glance at some of the larger stocks in the insurance 
sector reveals a glaring lack of bullish momentum.  ALL, AIG, CB, 
MET, and PRU, are all mired in multi-week downtrends.  AIG in 
particular appears to be vulnerable to more selling in the near 
future.  Since topping out near $86 in October, the stock has 
been trading in a descending channel.  Over the past week AIG had 
been bouncing around near the top of this channel, which lies 
just above the 50-dma at $67.72.  Today's 1.5% decline took 
shares well below this level.  Pressuring the stock was the news 
that WCOM had cooked its books (perhaps "nuked their books" is a 
better description.)  What does AIG have to do with this hapless 
telecom company?  According to a Reuters report today, the 
company owns $415 Million in WCOM debt.  The bonds sank to 15 
cents on the dollar after having their rating cut by Moody's, 
S&P, and Fitch.  If WorldCom winds up declaring bankruptcy (as 
many expect they will) the value of the debt will drop even 
further.  On another fundamental note, investors may not be eager 
to buy shares of insurance companies ahead of the upcoming Fourth 
of July weekend.  Independence Day fireworks could set off more 
wildfires in the Western US.  Recent fires in Arizona, 
California, and Colorado, have already taken a toll on the 
insurance sector.

Technically, the bearish oscillators lead us to believe that AIG 
will eventually reach the bottom of its channel near $60.00.  The 
MACD is beginning to roll over from the baseline, while the daily 
stochastics (5,3,3) indicate that AIG is not yet oversold.  Our 
entry strategy will be to short AIG once it falls below today's 
low of $65.49.  Point-and-figure chartists may notice that AIG 
has bullish support at $65.  Although we believe that shares will 
fall below this level, cautious traders may want to wait for AIG 
to trade under $65.00 before going short.  This would create a 
double-bottom p-n-f sell signal.  If the play is triggered, we'll 
initially place our stop at $68.01, just above the 50-dma.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       07/25/02  (unconfirmed)
 





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============  

Stop Adjustments
---------------- 

Rational Software - RATL - cls: 8.02 chg: -1.00 stop: 8.32 *new*

RATL marched its way lower for most of Wednesday's session until 
leveling out near $8.50.  That's when things got really 
interesting.  Volume rose dramatically as sellers hit the stock 
for a half-point loss in the final 20 minutes of trading.  When 
all was said and done, RATL had given up 11%.  Although today's 
action bodes well for a continued decline, we're going to move 
our stop down to $8.32.  This is relatively tight, but it should 
protect a gain of 16.2%.  More aggressive traders may want to use 
a stop just above $9.00.





Triggered Short Plays
--------------------- 

Alpharma, Inc - ALO - close: 16.64 change: +0.13 stop: 18.25

Shares of ALO sank with the broader market this morning and 
briefly moved under $16.00.  Our short play (with a stop at 
$18.25) was triggered when the stock traded at $15.95.  Shares 
trended higher for the remainder of the session and finished with 
a small gain.  Since ALO has now violated the neckline of its 
head-and-shoulders formation on an intraday basis, we're 
expecting a significant downward leg in the near future.


 

--- 

Maytag - MYG - close: 41.72 change: -0.27 stop: 45.67

MYG opened today's session right where it closed on Tuesday, and 
then proceeded to drop sharply in the first half-hour of trading.  
Our short play was triggered when shares hit our trigger price of 
$41.82. Now that shares have fallen to new near-term lows, we're 
looking for shares to break though the $40 level.  This is the 
location of both psychological and historical support.  Our stop 
is set at $45.67, above the 50-dma.





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Williams Company - WMB - cls: 5.75 chg: -0.19 stop: 6.17

Last night we tightened our stop on WMB in order to protect some 
of our hypothetical gains.  Although the stock gapped sharply 
lower this morning, a rebound brought shares to an intraday high 
of $6.18 - one cent above our stop-loss.  In hindsight we wish we 
had set the stop slightly higher, because WMB proceeded to trend 
lower for most of the day and finished well under $6.00.  Of 
course, we're not going to complain about a 12.8% gain.  The 
stock remains extremely weak and may eventually reach the $3.50-
$4.00 region.  However, traders who are still short the stock 
should be aware of possible psychological support at the $5.00 
level.  We'd likely consider shorting WMB once more if shares 
rebounded to the $7.50-$8.00 area.

Picked on June 21st at $7.08 
Change since picked:   +0.91
Earnings Date       07/25/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

Myers Industries Sets 5-for-4 Stock Split, Boosts Dividend

Myers Industries (NYSE: MYE) announced this afternoon that its 
Board of Directors had authorized a 5-for-4 stock split.

The split will be distributed on August 30, 2002 to stockholders 
of record on August 9, 2002.  The Board also declared a (split-
adjusted) regular quarterly cash dividend of 5 cents/share.  The 
dividend, which marks a 4% increase over the previous offering, 
will be payable on October 1, 2002 to shareholders of record on 
September 6, 2002.

MYE split 11-for-10 in each of the previous three years.  Shares 
have gained 14.5% in 2002.

The stock closed at $15.70 on Tuesday. For a current quote, click here:

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=MYE

About the company
Myers Industries, Inc. is an international manufacturer of polymer 
products for industrial, agricultural, automotive, commercial, and 
consumer markets. The Company is also the largest wholesale 
distributor of tools, equipment, and supplies for the tire, wheel, 
and undervehicle service industry in the U.S. Myers has 25 
manufacturing facilities in North America and Europe, 43 domestic 
and five international distribution branches, more than 20,000 
products, and more than 4,100 employees. (source: company press 
release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BCS     Barclays Plc ADR           33.02     +0.97
TKS     Tomkins Plc ADR            15.50     +0.58
RAH     Ralcorp Holdings Inc       28.34     +0.83
LFIN    Local Financial Corp       16.13     +0.51

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UCI     UICI                       19.91     +1.25
SRI     Stoneridge Inc             18.74     +1.39

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CAG     Conagra Foods              26.16     +1.27
BN      Banta Corp                 35.51     +1.43
WTFC    Wintrust Financial Corp    33.00     +1.85

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

VIA.B   Viacom (B)                 42.58     -1.72
C       Citigroup                  37.00     -2.12
BAC     Bank of America            67.45     -2.58
KFT     Kraft Foods Inc            39.49     -1.13
TV      Grupo Televisa Sa Gdr      35.99     -1.41
EDS     Electronic Data Systems    43.40     -3.23
COX     Cox Communications         26.90     -2.98
CMCSK   Comcast Special Stock      22.72     -1.52
CCU     Clear Channel Comm         35.75     -3.78
NWS     The News Corp Ltd          22.61     -1.59
MEL     Mellon Financial Corp      30.65     -1.55

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

FPL     FPL Group Inc              59.05     -0.95
CNA     CNA Financial              27.00     -0.25
MNTR    Mentor Corp Minnesota      36.50     -0.40
CATY    Cathay Bancorp Inc         42.78     -1.22


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