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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 07/01/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Monday 07-01-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      I Remain Bearish. Period.
Watch List:       ABT, ACV, AET, BRCD, LEN, IVGN, and more...
Play of the Day:  It's Just Logical

******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
      07-01-2002          High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9109.38 -133.47  9327.10  9106.89  1.42 bln   1134/2098
NASDAQ   1403.50 - 59.41  1459.84  1402.51  2.97 bln   1125/2396
S&P 100   478.94 - 11.16   492.39   478.34   Totals    2259/4494
S&P 500   967.50 - 21.17   994.46   967.43             
RUS 2000  446.67 - 14.92   461.55   446.03
DJ TRANS 2697.03 - 31.79  2734.12  2691.87
VIX        30.58 +  1.45    30.70    28.63
VXN        58.02 +  0.07    58.76    56.55
TRIN        2.19
PUT/CALL    0.85
******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

I remain bearish. Period.

Today's weak market action seems to have now readied the market 
for another stiff drop in coming days.  Sure, I could be wrong.  
But today's bad news only got worse after-hours.  From negative 
technical patterns on the market's "Generals" to rumors about 
more pre-announcements, things look simply lousy.

In addition to weakness in the major indexes that I discuss 
below, I am observing potentially negative technical developments 
in major stocks like Microsoft, IBM, Intel, Oracle and GE.

These stocks are leaders.  Well, they had been, anyway.  More 
renewed weakness in them, though, is likely tip the scales on the 
entire market, sending everything lower, harder, faster.  Here's 
why I'm concerned about each of these stocks.

INTEL:  A few weeks ago I asked the rhetorical question:  Intel 
under $10?  That remark was not meant in jest.  INTC began 
falling out of a small consolidation pattern today.  With both 
its weekly and daily RSI in oversold territory, INTC is ready to 
reach maximum downward acceleration in its price.  As I have said 
before in this column, the RSI can get pinned to the floor, much 
like a car accelerator, before a stock actually begins to rebound 
out of oversold conditions.  It has been my experience that the 
most vicious declines occur when both the weekly and daily RSI's 
are in (or pinned to) oversold readings. 

ORACLE:  Oracle has been a bit of a tech leader since early June, 
when it started slowly rising.  The stock has been registering a 
series of higher lows most of the month; a break below the trend 
line under these lows (which now sits at about $8.20), is likely 
to produce an ugly decline in the stock.  Another day or two of 
weakness and ORCL could be below that level.

MICROSOFT:  Like ORCL, MSFT has been producing a series of higher 
lows, except its pattern is longer, extending over two months.  
Although MSFT is not showing a decidedly negative pattern right 
now, a drop below its "rising lows" trend line, at about $50.20, 
becomes very negative. MSFT is $2.50 from such a potential 
breakdown.

GENERAL ELECTRIC:  Like Intel, GE has deteriorating RSI's on both 
weekly and daily charts.  For the past four weeks the stock has 
been struggling to stay in a sideways consolidation between 
roughly $28.00 - $31.00.  Today's 2% decline has set the stage 
for a move out of that pattern--downward.

IBM:  The stock possesses the same general technical concerns as 
that mentioned for INTC and GE.  IBM looks like it is ready to 
undergo a decline that pins its weekly and daily RSI into deeply 
oversold readings.  The impact on its price would not be pretty.

When I look at these charts and those of several indexes 
mentioned below--COMPX, SOX, OSX, RUT, TNX, VIX--I keeping coming 
back to only one conclusion:  the markets are set for more severe 
weakness in coming days.

Today's Market:  
The ever-witty and undeniably knowledgeable Jeff Bailey gave us a 
good summary of this morning's key economic reports during his 1 
pm intraday update.  And I am hardly one to try to improve on his 
fine wordsmithing.  Jeff noted that "the manufacturing sector 
grew in June for a fifth straight month, following 18 months of 
declines. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its ISM 
Index rose to 56.2% from 55.7% in May, the highest reading since 
February 2000."
 
Jeff went on to add that, "The employment component nearly 
reached the 50% level that would indicate hiring in the sector, 
rising to 49.7% from 47.3%. Economists say that this data may 
bode well for this Friday's release of non-farm payrolls and 
jobless data reports."

The implications of all this is that the economy continues to 
chug along.  Readings in the ISM data over 50% indicate that 
economic conditions are improving.  

The Dow generally anticipated these good economic readings, and 
moved higher just before the reports were released.  After the 
news was out, though, investors were more interested in selling 
than buying, and the selling pressure began pulling most of the 
major indexes down with only two exceptions:  homebuilding and 
the gold stocks.  When the closing bell rang, many of the major 
indexes closed at or near their lows.  The Dow dropped 133 
points, finishing at 9110, while the S&P 500 shed 21 points, 
finishing the day at 969.  The NASDAQ Composite was hit for a 4% 
loss, closing at 1404.  And the Russell 2000 was no help today.  
It dipped a spot over 3.5%, dropping 15 points, closing at 448.

As I discuss in the following section, today's weakness has set 
the stage for a fairly difficult July 4th holiday.  Although I 
could certainly be fooled, the markets seem set for more weakness 
into the end of this week.

If there was one item that seemed to weigh heavy on the markets 
today, it was WorldCom.  Let's face it: this stock is old news, 
so how could it put a black pall over the entire market?  
WorldCom had been halted for the last 3 trading days, and when 
trading began today, the stock showed us that it was not going to 
lose its news value just yet: it immediately lost 90% of its 
value, trading down to $0.06 after receiving a de-listing notice 
from the Nasdaq.  WCOME (their new trading symbol) set a volume 
record with over 1.5 billion shares traded; the NASDAQ set a 
record as well, with over 3.0 billion shares traded today.

There were other events and announcements that helped shape the 
negative tone of today's trading.  Here's a quick review of a few 
of them:

Lazard Freres began coverage of Brocade (BRCD) with a "Sell" 
rating.

Salomon Smith Barney beefed up their growing list of companies 
likely to present negative earnings pre-announcments.  Included 
in the list are ALTR, CSC, TXN, XLNX, BBY, CC, CSCO, CSGS, DELL, 
IBM, MSFT, MU, and QCOM.  Did they miss anybody?

Siebel Systems (SEBL) had 2002 and 2003 earnings estimates cut by 
Bank of America.

Prudential (PRU) was downgraded by Merrill Lynch.

EDS (EDS) plunged $6.70 to $30.45 on continuing concerns about 
its earnings-related exposure to WorldCom.

Investigators have not yet found any credible record that Martha 
Stewart had placed a stop-loss order with her broker as she has 
claimed, regarding her sale of IMCL stock.

3M (MMM) raised guidance this morning.  Holy-Moly!--I guess these 
things still happen sometimes!

Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS) was downgraded by Prudential

Getting Ready For Tuesday, July 2nd.
 
With the absence of any economic reports tomorrow, we can expect 
the market to start Tuesday's trading handicapped by today's 
miserable performance, and a variety of negative news items that 
snuck out after the close.  I have a hard time understanding how 
the market might find a glimmer of hope on which to trade 
positively tomorrow.  

Things look simply depressing if you are bullish.  We are 
grateful we are not.

These are the announcements which came after today's close. You 
don't need to have an MBA to recognize the basic thrust of all 
this news:  decidedly negative for Tuesday:

MIPS Technology (MIPS) warned that it would have a greater loss 
in Q4 than originally expected.

AmeriPath (PATH) said that it expects increased malpractice 
expenses over the next year; they lowered earnings guidance for 
Q3 & Q4 as a result.

Grocer Supervalu (SVU)--after reporting lower than expected 
earnings--said that it would restate their earnings for the last 
three fiscal years.  Now, I know a grocer is hardly one of the 
market's "generals."  But this admission is likely to give 
investors one more reason to believe that executives with the 
morals of "Wall Street's" Gordon Gecko are now governing the 
entirety of the stock market.  

Airborne Freight (ABF) guided lower, slicing more than two thirds 
off previous EPS consensus.  

Office equipment maker Herman Miller (MLHR) reported better than 
expected earnings, although revenues fell 37%.

Rational Software (RATL) lowered earnings guidance for its 
upcoming quarter.  It was down about 20% in after-hours trading.  
You may recall that we had a short position in this stock last 
week, which we closed with a 16% gain.  Dang, wish we were sill 
in it!

With those late afternoon news items as a backdrop, here are my 
(clearly bearish) thoughts on a variety of indexes and sectors, 
and the way the might fare over the next few days.

Ten Year Treasury Note Yields (TNX):  The TNX finished today at 
4.82%.  Remember that we are using the TNX as a forecasting tool 
for the equity markets.  The 4.90% - 4.95% level continues to be 
"resistance" and another decline to the 4.40% - 4.60% yield seems 
likely in coming days.  Since the stock market has followed T-
note yields, our reading on this is the more weakness in the 
equity markets is likely in coming days, and this weakness will 
push yields down again (and T-note prices up).

US Dollar Index (DX00Y):  The DX00Y closed today at 106.51.  The 
Dollar may attempt to rebound to the 107.75 level over the next 
few days.  In general, though, I think it is more likely that it 
will turn lower very soon, this time dropping quickly to about 
the 102 level.  I expect a reading of 102 to be reached at about 
the same time that that the VIX reaches its top readings, and the 
Dow finds a meaningful bottom.

The Market Volatility Index (VIX):  The VIX rose to 30.58 
today.  The index continues to look like it will go higher in 
coming days, supporting our belief that the markets will trade 
lower.  As readers may remember, I have been of the opinion that 
the VIX needs to hit the 38 - 42 level before we're likely to 
have a summer bottom established in the stock market.  Although a 
move to that region remains possible, I'm going to back pedal a 
bit and suggest that a move to 34 -35 could also give us the 
market bottom for which we've been looking.  The key, obviously, 
is the ability of the VIX to reverse sharply. Until we see a 
fairly sharp reversal in the index, it is going to work higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU):  The Dow ended today at 
9110 If the Dow closes below 9000 in the next day or two, my 
expectation will be that a decline to 8600 - 8800 will 
be underway.  If it were able to remain above 9000 on a closing 
basis, a rebound to either 1) 9450- 9500 or 2) 9800 would be 
possible over the next 1+ week.  With all of my other bearish 
views, I am not a big fan of the 9450+ view.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (TRAN):  The TRAN closed 
today at 2700.  I said last Wednesday that a rebound in the TRAN 
to 2700 - 2725 was likely and that if it stalled and turned down 
at that level the TRAN was likely to then be headed back to the 
2425 region.  My view has not changed; thus far, the TRAN has 
stalled right in the 2700 - 2725 region.  Airborne Freight's 
lowered guidance tonight has probably set the stage for the 2425 
level.

The NASDAQ Composite (COMPX): The COMPX finished today at 1404. 
My previous forecast that the COMPX would rebound to the 1450 - 
1475 region and then turn down was fairly close to the mark; it 
reached 1486 before reversing sharply.  Today's decline has now 
put the COMPX on a ledge and its looking down a the potential of 
a sharp plunge.  The COMPX must rebound back above 1445 in the 
next day or two, or the likelihood of this plunge substantially 
increases.  It will be very negative for the COMPX if it gaps 
down at tomorrow's open.  As I have said previously, the 
index seems to be headed for 1250, or lower, before it has found 
a bottom.  

The Russell 2000 (RUT):  The RUT closed at 448.  I noted last 
Wednesday that the RUT had formed a potentially bullish pattern:  
double bottom with a bullish divergence on the RSI.  I said that 
in order for this pattern to become operational, though, the RUT 
needed to trade above 470.  It could not do this.  Technically, 
the RUT now appears ready for another short-term decline that 
takes it to the 430 level.  A decline to 405 cannot be dismissed.

The Semiconductor Index (SOX):  The SOX closed at 367.  I said 
last Wednesday that 400 was resistance, and that a failed rally 
to this level was likely to produce much more misery for the 
index.  It effectively failed in this region on Friday, and every 
indication tonight is that the SOX is ready to collapse again.  
If it cannot struggle back above 392 on Tuesday or Wednesday, 
another dive is likely. Don't expect the September lows to halt 
its decline, either.  I would not expect the index to find a 
meaningful bottom until it has declined to at least the 127% 
Fibonacci retracement (of its Sept. 2001 - March 2002 advance).  
That level is 265.

The Defense Industry Index (DFX):  The DFX closed at 193. I have 
told you that the 200 level remains stiff resistance for this 
index, and the DFX was turned back down--again--at that level.  A 
new round of weakness in DFX is at hand.  Once the DFX is below 
188, expect it to be pulled down another 6% to 177.

The Dow Jones US Home Construction Index (DJUSHB): The Home 
Building Index closed at 383. Important support remains at 370.  
I said last week that if the index could begin trading above 380, 
it would suggest it was capable of a new short-term advance, to 
the 415 region.  It is now ready to begin that advance; however, 
the weakness in the other sectors of the market should encourage 
traders to be extremely judicious with any long positions taken 
in this sector.   

The Oil Services Index (OSX):  The OSX finished today at 91. I am 
bearish on the OSX as long as it remains below 105--and it seems 
like it will for quite some time.  The index has formed a large 
head and shoulders top from which it began to break down last 
Friday.  Unless the index returns to a reading greater than 95--
immediately--it will be headed to the 79.5 level, or lower.

The Gold and Silver Index (XAU):  The XAU closed today at 75.20.  
I remain bearish on the XAU until it is back above 85--and I 
don't expect to see that level for a while. Could I be wrong?  
Sure, but the index would need to rebound back above 80 in the 
next few days in order to avoid a short term drop to about 65.

------------------

Keep those trading seat belts tightened! 

Siegfried Brian Barger, 
Editor   
brian@PremierInvestor.net



==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Abbott Laboratories, Inc. - ABT - close: 37.30 change: -0.35 

WHAT TO WATCH: The pharmaceutical sector, as illustrated by the 
DRG Index, has been in a harsh, extended decline since March. 
Stocks like Merck, Johnson and Johnson, Pfizer, Abbott Labs--
among others--have suffered deep pullbacks during this period.  
Abbott has been slowly moving higher since a steep sell-off in 
the stock during the June 10th - June 12th time period.  ABT's 
deteriorating technical condition suggests to us that it will 
break down, and out of, this three-week consolidation in coming 
days.  Traders looking to short ABT may want to wait until it is 
trading below recent lows of $35.76.  An initial stop above 
Friday's high ($39.85) would be prudent, though traders would 
want to move that stop down aggressively as the stock begins its 
decline.




--- 

Alberto Culver - ACV - close: 48.30 change: +0.50

WHAT TO WATCH: ACV had a rough go of it in late June, but shares 
recently found support at the 200-dma ($48.10).  A testament to 
the strength of this support is the fact that ACV actually 
finished with a 1% gain today - not too bad, considering the Dow 
Jones gave back 133 points.  A broader market rebound could fuel 
a further rise in the stock's price.  With this in mind, we think 
ACV now offers a favorable risk/reward setup for a bullish trade.  
Short-term traders could take positions at current levels with a 
stop just under the relative low of $47.70.  We'd be targeting an 
upside move to the $52-$53 region, although we will concede to 
the bears that the $51 to $53 levels are pretty congested.  
Alternatively, if ACV trades under $47.50, shorts could target a 
move to the $45 level for a quick move.  




---

Aetna, Inc. - AET - close: 46.51 change: -1.46 

WHAT TO WATCH: After hitting a 52 week high on June 19th, Aetna 
began a slide that now has the stock struggling to move back 
above its 50-dma.  The stock's price pattern is mirroring the HMO 
Index (Morgan Stanley Health Care Payors Index) which began 
pulling back after producing a double top on its weekly chart 
that was accompanied by a bearish RSI divergence.  AET's 50 dma 
is hinting at potential weakness, and traders will want to see if 
the stock can move back above this resistance in coming days.  A 
move below June 26th's low of $45.01 is likely to indicate that 
AET has indeed rolled over.  If this occurs as we think it will, 
we'll be looking for a decline to the $40.00 to $38.50 support 
region, or possibly the 200-dma near $37.00.




--- 

Automatic Data Proc. - ADP - close: 42.21 change: -1.34

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this business service company tumbled to 
a new multi-month low today.  At this point it appears likely 
that the stock will test its September low of $41.00.  If this 
level fails, ADP could quickly drop into the $35-$40 region.  
Aggressive traders could take bearish positions on a move under 
today's low of $42.00, while others may want to wait for a break 
under $41.00.  This would be a speculative play, based purely on 
the technical breakdown.




---

Brocade Communications - BRCD - close: 16.20 change: -1.28

WHAT TO WATCH: Lazard Freres isn't exactly one of the bigger 
names when it comes to Wall Street advisors, but investors seemed 
to pay a lot of attention when the firm issued a "sell" rating on 
BRCD today.  Shares of the storage company fell 7.3% and reached 
a new multi-month low of $16.16.  Other than possible 
psychological support at $15.00, there's not much to prevent a 
retest of the September lows near $12.50.  Aggressive traders 
could target a decline below $16.00, which would create a double-
bottom sell signal on the p-n-f chart.




---

Central Parking Corp. - CPC - close: 22.00 change: -0.85 

WHAT TO WATCH: After slicing downward, and through, its flat 50-
dma on June 4th, parking lot manager CPC has been primarily 
trading sideways between $21.50 - $23.00.  We think the stock is 
preparing to break down out of this consolidation in coming days.  
A move below the June 26th low of $21.60 is likely to start this 
process, pulling the stock down initially to the 200-dma (and 
psychological support) at about $20.00.  We think it's possible 
that CPC is likely to go down even further to a key retracement 
at $18.30 before it will be ready for a new upward phase.




--- 

DKWD - D & K Healthcare Resources - close: 30.50 change: -4.76

WHAT TO WATCH: As you might suspect, today's 13.5% decline in 
shares of DKWD created some severe technical damage.  The stock 
fell below the 50-dma (which had previously provided support) and 
also violated historical support at the $32.00 level.  There 
wasn't any company-specific news to explain the decline, but 
shares may have been pressured by auditing concerns revolving 
around CAH, a fellow medical supplier.  Short entries could be 
evaluated on a failed rally back to $32, while aggressive traders 
could actually target bullish positions on a rebound from the 
200-dma ($28.91).




---

Lennar Corporation - LEN - close: 63.30 change: +2.10 

WHAT TO WATCH: Homebuilder Lennar underwent a considerable 
consolidation from March until mid-June.  A few days ahead of its 
June 19th earnings report, though, the stock began moving briskly 
upward, closing above its 50-dma.  It shot upward to all time 
highs after beating earnings estimates and raising guidance for 
FY02 on the 19th.   Today, LEN broke out of a small post-earnings 
consolidation, doing so on strong volume.  Long positions in the 
stock can be initiated at current levels, though a pullback to 
support at $61.00 is very possible, and patient traders might 
look for this to occur.  Once a long position is assumed, a sell 
stop placed just below the $57.00 support region would be a good 
idea.  The rising 50-dma sits at $55.80, and an alternate stop 
level would be just below this support.  Ideally, a position in 
this stock would be coordinated with a rebounding stock market.




---

LIZ Claiborne - LIZ - close: 31.14 change: -0.66 

WHAT TO WATCH:  Since late April, LIZ has been mired in a 
relatively gentle consolidation that has seen it trade on either 
side of its rising 50-dma.  In the last week, the stock has been 
struggling to stay above the 50-dma, and subsequently break out 
of this consolidation--and to new highs.  Volume has been 
improving in the recent week, and we think there is a good chance 
the stock will break out soon. However, traders should not take 
long positions until the stock is above its recent high of 
$32.46.  Sell stops could be initially placed at about $29.95; 
this level is below support, the 50-dma, and psychological 
support at $30.00. 


 

--- 

Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 54.20 change: -2.50

WHAT TO WATCH: Mirroring similar declines in fellow gaming stocks 
MGG and HET, IGT has spent the past month trending lower.  The 
stock was hit for a 4.4% loss today and is danger of falling 
below the near-term low of $53.91.  Short entries could be 
targeted on a move under this level.  Although support may emerge 
near the April low of $53.35 or the psychologically important $50 
level, we think IGT could eventually reach the bottom of its 
descending regression channel near $46. This outlook is not based 
on any particular technical indicator, but rather on stock's 
steady downtrend and inability to string together more than 2-3 
days of gains.  P-n-f chartists, however, may want to note that a 
trade at $53.00 will create a double-bottom sell signal.  




---

Invitrogen Corp - IVGN - close: 28.83 change: -3.18

WHAT TO WATCH: The BTK.X biotech index is not a picture of 
health.  It was whacked for a 7.3% loss today and is trading at 
fresh multi-year lows.  If there's a bottom in sight for the 
sector, we sure as heck don't see it!  IVGN underperformed the 
index and dropped almost 10% today on the strongest volume in 
nearly a month.  This did some severe technical damage, as shares 
fell under what had been reliable support at $30.00.  The move 
also produced a double-bottom sell signal on the p-n-f chart.  
Considering the technical breakdown and continued weakness in the 
biotech group, we suspect IVGN could reach the $25 level in a 
matter of days.  Short positions can be evaluated on a break 
below today's low of $28.69.  Don't want to risk playing a stock 
that could suddenly pop on positive drug news?  Take a look at 
BBH--that's the Biotech HOLDR--which looks like a short below 
$76.60.





===============
Play-of-the-day (New High-Risk/Reward BEARISH Play)
===============

QLogic Corp - QLGC - close: 35.89 change: -2.21 stop: *text*

Company Description:
QLogic builds semiconductor products, and provides leading 
companies like IBM, Dell, Compaq and others with its products.

Why We Like It:
We can be brief here: the semiconductor sector is a mess.  The 
SOX (Semiconductor Index) is technically weak, as are most of its 
component stocks. The index is displaying extremely weak daily 
and weekly RSI's, and the chances are good that the SOX will 
experience sharp selling in coming days.  Although QLogic has 
been the recent beneficiary of positive comments by brokerage 
firms--like today's Thomas Weisel's positive comments on its 
business outlook--the stock is technically weak like its sector. 
It has been trading beneath both its 50-dma and 200-dma since 
mid-June.  Unlike the SOX and stocks like INTC or LSI, though, 
GLGC has not suffered the extreme selling that has hit its 
sector. It has more room to fall, we think, than some of the 
other semiconductor-related stocks.

Our strategy will be to short QLGC on a move below its recent low 
of $34.68.  Please note, though, that we will not short QLGC if 
it gaps below $34.25.  Once we are in the play an initial buy 
stop will be placed at $40.27, which is above both near term 
resistance and psychological support at the $40.00 level.  We are 
looking for the stock to decline to the $24.00-$25.00 region in 
coming weeks before attempting a serious rebound.

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        08/06/02 (unconfirmed)
 






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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Monday 07-01-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
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http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/g01b_2.asp
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In section two:

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Triggered Plays:       RCII, SPF (bullish)

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:     QLGC
  Stop Adjustments:      CCK, PLCM (bearish)
  Closed Bullish Plays:  AMD, ORCL

Split Trader
                         ACMR: 2-for-1 split announcement

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============  

Triggered Long Plays
--------------------

Rent-A-Center - RCII - close: 55.90 change: -2.11 stop: 55.24

Our long play in RCII was activated this morning when shares hit 
our entry trigger at $58.13.  By using a trigger, we were hoping 
to decrease the likelihood that we'd get caught in a selloff if 
the stock consolidated some of its gains from last week.  
Unfortunately the bullish momentum quickly faded after the first 
half-hour of trading.  Shares reversed course and finished the 
session with a 3.6% loss.  

Despite today's decline, RCII continues to look technically 
bullish.  If the broader market rebounds tomorrow we'd expect the 
stock to move back over its 50-dma at $57.42.  Considering that 
our stop is set at $55.24, relatively low-risk entries could be 
targeted on a bounce from current levels.  Keep in mind that 
given the current market environment, we'd hesitate to try and 
catch stocks while they are falling and would prefer to see some 
sign of strength.  A move back over $58 is probably the best bet 
with RCII.

Picked on July 1st at $58.13
Change since picked:   -2.23
Earnings Date        07/29/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Standard Pacific - SPF - close: 34.41 change: -0.67 stop: 31.70

The necessary conditions for going long on SPF were met this 
morning when the stock rose above $35.40.  Shares hit a new 52-
week high before a declining Dow Jones helped to sink SPF for a 
1.9% loss.  On Tuesday we'll be watching for SPF to move over 
today's high of $35.73.  New entries can be considered on a break 
above this level or on a pullback to the 50-dma at $33.23.  
Remember that our stop is located at $31.70.

Picked on July 1st at $35.41
Change since picked:   -1.00
Earnings Date        07/23/02 (unconfirmed)
 





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

QLogic Corp - QLGC - close: 35.89 change: -2.21 stop: *text*

Company Description:
QLogic builds semiconductor products, and provides leading 
companies like IBM, Dell, Compaq and others with its products.

Why We Like It:
We can be brief here: the semiconductor sector is a mess.  The 
SOX (Semiconductor Index) is technically weak, as are most of its 
component stocks. The index is displaying extremely weak daily 
and weekly RSI's, and the chances are good that the SOX will 
experience sharp selling in coming days.  Although QLogic has 
been the recent beneficiary of positive comments by brokerage 
firms--like today's Thomas Weisel's positive comments on its 
business outlook--the stock is technically weak like its sector. 
It has been trading beneath both its 50-dma and 200-dma since 
mid-June.  Unlike the SOX and stocks like INTC or LSI, though, 
GLGC has not suffered the extreme selling that has hit its 
sector. It has more room to fall, we think, than some of the 
other semiconductor-related stocks.

Our strategy will be to short QLGC on a move below its recent low 
of $34.68.  Please note, though, that we will not short QLGC if 
it gaps below $34.25.  Once we are in the play an initial buy 
stop will be placed at $40.27, which is above both near term 
resistance and psychological support at the $40.00 level.  We are 
looking for the stock to decline to the $24.00-$25.00 region in 
coming weeks before attempting a serious rebound.

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        08/06/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
HR Play Updates
===============  

Stop Adjustments
---------------- 

Crown Cork Seal - CCK - close: 6.15 change: -0.70 stop: 7.01 *new

CCK was hammered for a 10.2% loss today on no discernable news.  
Bulls may have decided to throw in the towel after shares failed 
to move over the $7.00 level.  The Premier Investor newsletter is 
currently up 15.8% on this play, and short-term or conservative 
traders may want to consider challenging CCK with a very tight 
stop.  We're moving ours to $7.01 - safely above today's high.  
An alternative stop loss for traders looking to protect 
additional gains would be $6.61, or just above the afternoon 
highs for CCK.  Also note that we're raising our official profit-
target to $5.56 in order to stay above the rising 200-dma.  This 
means we will exit the play with a gain if shares trade at or 
below $5.56.   

Picked on June 20th at $7.31 
Change since picked:   +1.16
Earnings Date        07/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Polycom - PLCM - close: 11.12 change: -0.87 stop: 12.01 *new*

Shares of PLCM dropped 7.2% today en route to a new 52-week low.
In light of this development, we're going to tighten our stop 
to $12.01, three cents above the intraday high.  New aggressive 
short entries could be considered on Tuesday if PLCM falls under 
$11.00, but take note that we'll probably see some short-covering 
if/when shares reach the $10.00 level, which would also be a good 
spot for short-term premier readers to consider taking profits. 

Picked on June 27th at $11.80 
Change since picked:    +0.68
Earnings Date        07/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Advanced Micro Dev. - AMD - cls: 9.14 chg: -0.58 stop: 9.47

Due to the volatile nature of the semiconductor group, we elected 
to place a relatively tight stop on AMD after its strong Friday 
rally.  This level ($9.47) was violated in morning trading as 
shares sank lower with the semiconductor index (SOX.X).  Our play 
was closed for a gain of 22 cents, or 2.3%.  Although it's 
possible that AMD could eventually fill in the June 19th gap, 
traders need to be aware of psychological resistance at $10.00.  
This level also roughly coincides with the top of the descending 
regression channel that has dictated AMD's range since early 
March.  Considering that the SOX.X appears to be headed for a 
test of its September Lows near 345, we think odds are good that 
AMD will continue to move lower in the near-term.  Bulls can take 
heart in the fact that today's 5.9% decline was backed by the 
lightest volume in over two weeks.  Of course, this may simply be 
a function of the typical pre-holiday malaise on Wall Street.

Picked on June 28th at $9.25 
Gain since picked:     +0.22
Earnings Date       07/17/02  (unconfirmed)
 

 

--- 

Oracle Corp. - ORCL - cls: 9.00 chg: -0.47 stop: *text*

Last week we added ORCL as a long play in an attempt to capture a 
breakout over the $10.00 level.  Although the stock made a 
valiant effort to accomplish this feat, it just wasn't able to 
buck the negative trend in the tech sector.  Shares fell by 
nearly 5% today and closed just above the 50-dma at $8.93, which 
was also the intraday low.  Although ORCL may bounce from this 
level, it'll have a tough time rising in the face of a plummeting 
NASDAQ.  The daily stochastics (5,3,3) are beginning to drop from 
the overbought region, suggesting more weakness ahead.  Traders 
still feeling bullish on software may want to check out MSFT, 
which has held up relatively well versus the NAZ.  If you have 
not noticed, Premier was never triggered in a long play in ORCL 
as the stock never traded above our $10 trigger point.

Picked on June xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       06/18/02  (confirmed)
 





==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
------------------- 

A.C. Moore Crafts a 2-for-1 Stock Split

Prior to the opening bell this morning, A.C. Moore Arts & Crafts, 
Inc. (NASDAQ: ACMR) announced that its Board of Directors had 
authorized a 2-for-1 stock split.

The additional shares will be paid on July 31, 2002 to 
stockholders of record on July 15, 2002.

This marks the first split for ACMR since it began trading in 
1997.  The stock has gained 60% year-to-date and is currently 
trading near its all-time high of $48.60.

ACMR closed at $47.35 on Friday. For a current quote, click here:

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=ACMR

About the company
A.C. Moore operates arts and crafts stores that offer a vast 
selection of arts, crafts and floral merchandise for a wide range 
of customers. The Company operates 65 stores in the eastern United 
States. (source: company press release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AGY     Argosy Gaming Co           29.00     +0.60
UIL     UIL Holdings               56.35     +1.89
JOSB    Jos A Banks Clothiers      18.39     +0.57
SGDE    Sportsman's Guide Inc       9.55     +0.61

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BYBI    Back Yard Burgers Inc      12.22     +1.07

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SIAL    Sigma-Aldrich Corp         51.35     +1.20
LEN     Lennar Corp                63.30     +2.10
NWN     Northwest Natural Gas      30.03     +1.28
HARB    Harbor Florida Bancshares  24.40     +3.59

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

LLY     Eli Lilly & Co             53.76     -2.64
CAH     Cardinal Health Inc        57.30     -4.11
ADP     Automatic Data Processing  42.21     -1.34
EDS     Electronic Data Systems    30.45     -6.70
NOC     Northrop Gruman           118.19     -6.81
FD      Federated Dept. Stores     37.73     -1.97
CSC     Computer Sciences Corp     41.68     -6.12
DGX     Quest Diagnostics Inc      80.60     -5.45
ABC     AmerisourceBergen Corp     71.19     -4.21
HOT     Starwood Hotel & Resort    31.45     -1.44
GPC     Genuine Parts Co           33.63     -1.24
LAMR    Lamar Advertising          32.95     -4.26
FBN     Furniture Brands Intl      29.00     -1.25

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

PIXR    Pixar                      40.61     -3.49
SR      The Standard Register      32.25     -1.94
KNGT    Knight Transportation      20.77     -2.42
HBHC    Hancock Holding            62.41     -4.97
RAS     Resource Asset Invest Tr.  21.74     -1.99




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