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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 07/02/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 07-02-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Grrrrrrowl!
Market Sentiment: How Low Can It Go?
Play-of-the-Day:  Accelerating Losses


-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------        
      07-02-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9007.75 -102.00  9135.82  8960.54 1.71 bln    687/2334
NASDAQ   1357.85 - 46.00  1396.25  1356.03 2.66 bln    887/2630
S&P 100   470.11 -  8.85   479.59   468.24   Totals   1564/4964
S&P 500   948.09 - 20.56   968.65   945.54             
RUS 2000  432.84 - 14.89   447.73   432.53
DJ TRANS 2619.88 - 80.00  2709.01  2617.11
VIX        33.69 +  3.13    34.64    31.33
VXN        59.57 +  2.12    61.93    58.95
TRIN        2.33
PUT/CALL    1.08
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Grrrrrrowl!

It was a sea of red across my trading screen today, with one 
exception.  The U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 106.80 +0.27% showed 
the U.S. Dollar gaining marginal ground against the foreign 
currencies, but not nearly enough to hold back a tide of selling.

The most notable impact the modest gains in the dollar had in 
today's market was to precious metals stocks, which found the 
Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 70.27 -6.5% leading sector declines.  
That's right!  The one sector that broader market bears felt 
might be the "big winner" on a total market collapse, found 
traders scrambling to salvage any type of profit left in a stock 
and selling the group.

As marginal as the U.S. Dollar's gains have been the last two 
sessions, "gold bugs" appear to be abandoning their favorite 
names.

Gold/Silver Index Chart - Daily Interval




I don't see any bearish plays in the precious metals sector in 
the PremierInvestor.net play list, but I'd look to start 
implementing some bearish trades in this group should the U.S. 
Dollar continue to stabilize and the XAU.X rallies back above the 
$73.61 level near-term.  

In past trading, I've noted on an intra-day basis that gold 
stocks tend to lead the commodity (up and downs).  I see this 
again today as Gold stocks (the underlying equities) outpaced 
declines in the futures market.  As such, I use the futures as 
"confirmation" of a move.  

December Gold Futures (gc02z) - Daily Interval




Before a trader starts getting overly bearish on gold stocks (the 
equities), I'd want to see a break of upward trend in the futures 
market of the commodity itself.  After all, this is what the gold 
producers revenues/profits will be based off of.  Near-term, if 
December gold (the chart above) begins finding formidable 
resistance at the 320 level, look to enter some partial short 
positions in gold stocks that may rally due to some short-
covering.  If December gold breaks below the $308 level, that 
could bring on a good flushing longer-term to $295.  It's 
interesting to note that the current bearish vertical count for 
the December futures contract is currently $295 and ties in 
rather well with the above 61.8% retracement bracket.

Subscriber's may want to note that Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) $18.44 
-3.85% traded "strong" RELATIVE to the Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 
70.27 -6.55%.  In the past, I've mentioned that Barrick Gold 
(ABX) is a "hedger" and that it will hedge future production by 
selling gold futures short.  In essence, it is not unlikely that 
Barrick may actually be selling the December Gold Futures (gc02z) 
today at $315/oz.  Then, when December expiration rolls around, 
if they sold 1,000 oz. worth of futures at today's $315.40 level, 
they would have to deliver 1,000 oz. of gold on that contract.  
If gold prices were to fall to $295/oz, then they were "hedged" 
on 1,000 oz and can either deliver against the contract, or buy 
it back for a gain, should gold prices fall below the $315.40 
level.  Conversely,  should demand be outstripping supply and a 
hunger for the underlying commodity continue, then any "hedging" 
and selling at $315.40 would have somewhat of a negative impact 
should gold prices rise by December expiration.  

Current action looks bearish for gold stocks and if we were to 
see Gold futures start finding resistance at $320 or break its 
upward trend, then gold stocks themselves become suspect.

One stock I'd look to short is AngloGold (NYSE:AU) $25.47 -7.68% 
on a rally back near the $28 level.  This was a stock I 
personally traded bullish as well as did the PremierInvestor.net 
play list last week.  While the stock experienced short-term 
bullishness while the U.S. Dollar weakened, the stock never could 
break out of a consolidation base from $28-$30.  This hints that 
the stock is out of favor in the group and a likely bearish 
candidate on rallies.  If December Gold can stay below the $320 
level, then I'd look to short AU on any type of short-covering 
rally.

May be a "heads up" for bears

If you're short some stocks, then chances are you're not too 
disappointed with today's action as the Dow Industrials (INDU) 
fell 102 points (-1.12%), the S&P 500 dropped 20 points (-2.12%) 
and the broader NASDAQ Composite shed 45 points (-3.27%).

I would at least use today's bearishness in gold stocks as a 
reason to NOT be complacent with short positions in general (gold 
stocks or otherwise).  Again, this had been a group that traded 
rather strong despite broader-market bearishness.

I'm sure as heck not going to use the bearishness we're seeing in 
gold stocks to get bullish on the broader-markets.  Not yet at 
least.  But some of the negativity we see in gold may be a sign 
that the MARKET looks for the U.S. Dollar to firm and any 
continued firming or recovery above the 108.50 level could lift 
the broader markets.  

It would be ludicrous to think that a 2-day firming in the U.S. 
Dollar Index (dx00y) is the beginning of a longer-term move, but 
to think that the U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) can't bounce back to 
the 111 level should have any bear thinking again.

While a U.S. Dollar rebound by itself wouldn't be enough in my 
book to have stocks staging any type of major rally, a recovering 
U.S. dollar could lift some clouds that have weighed on stocks 
since January and acted a bit like a sledge hammer in recent 
weeks.

As such, we're going to be tightening down some stops in our 
bearish profiled trades.

Good news for Polycom bears!

Bearish traders in Polycom (NASDAQ:PLCM) $10.90 -1.97% from our 
bearish play list see that the stock broke to yet another 52-week 
low today.  Bearish traders were treated to a tasty dessert in 
after-hours trading when the company warned on its upcoming 2nd 
quarter earnings saying that revenues for the quarter are going 
to be between $124-$126 million and pro forma earnings will be 
between $0.13 and $0.14 a share.  Both were well below consensus 
estimates of $140.4 million and $0.20 EPS.

Polycom Chart - Daily Interval




We've been taking some 5% and 6% "lumps" from the bullish side of 
our play list in recent weeks as the broader market averages 
bleed red and the river runs south.  With that in mind, we're 
going to continue to be aggressive with our stops when we get 
some gaps lower.  It looks like PLCM is going to gap lower near 
$7.50 tomorrow morning and from profiled $11.80, we don't think a 
trader should risk a 36% gain (if stock opens at $7.50).  As 
such, we're going to simply suggest that traders monitor tomorrow 
morning's open, add $0.35 to the opening trade and place a stop 
profit order at that level.  For instance, if the stock does open 
at $7.50, then a stop at $7.85 could be placed.

Market Internals

The bullish % charts still tell a story of internal weakening, 
but some large amounts of risk are slowly being removed.

Today's action leaves the more volatile and faster changing 
NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) still in "bear confirmed" status, 
but now at just 10%.  Yes, it can always go to a 0% reading like 
it did back in September, but "market risk" runs high for bearish 
traders and gains need to be protected and losses cut quickly in 
this part of the market.

The still rather narrow, but less technology exposed S&P 100 
Bullish % ($BPOEX) fell to 33% today, from yesterday's reading of 
35%.  In essence, this group of stocks saw a net loss of 2 stocks 
to sell signals on their charts.  This market is also in "bear 
confirmed" status, but has yet to reach a more oversold level 
below 30%.  Still defensive for any bullish trades, but lots of 
market risk has been reduced from March's 78% reading.

The broader yet S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) fell to 36.47% bullish 
today, down from Monday's reading of 38.88%.  We are well off of 
the March highs and "overbought" reading of 76%, but still far 
enough from the September low readings of 16% to understand 
there's still some downside risk present.  

And the broadest of broad indicators still finds a net gain of 
stocks to new sell signals in the NYSE Composite Bullish % 
($BPNYA) and NASDAQ Composite Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ).  

The NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYA) fell to 46.8% from Monday's 48.58% 
reading and remains in a "bull correction" status.  In September, 
this indicator reached a low level of 26% before reversing up to 
64% in May.  It takes EXTREME levels of bearishness to push this 
broader market indicator below the 34%.

The NASDAQ Composite Bullish % ($BPNYA) fell to 38.14% from 
Monday's reading of 39.41%.  There's still some downside risk to 
be realized here as this market holds more technology stocks and 
has the ability to reach more oversold levels of 30% on a 
historical basis.  September low reading was 22%, while January's 
most bullish reading came at 56% and March's reading of 54%.  If 
this were a football game, then the "bears" have the ball right 
now and look to be at mid-field.

What can turn things around?

I still think the only danger for bears right now are other bears 
coming in and covering some short positions in stocks that are 
just simply technically oversold and present too much risk to let 
profits slip away.

The only thing I see that could create some type of prolonged 
rally would be for continued strengthening in the U.S. %, but 
that strengthening would have to be coupled with selling in U.S. 
Treasuries, where the cash sold from Treasury bonds would then 
potentially rotated to equities.

That sure has heck didn't happen today though did it?

Say what you will about CNBC and sometimes lack of suitable 
market commentary from time to time, but their analyst in the 
Treasury pits (Rick Santelli) really does give some good insight 
into things.

He was almost holding back some laughter today, but you could 
really sense the excitement in his voice when the benchmark 10-
year YIELD ($TNX.X) 4.74% was slipping lower early in the 
session.  I'm paraphrasing a bit, but he was eluding to the 
action in the Treasuries as rather "nonsense" but the buying in 
Treasuries was purely based on investor's "fear of equities" and 
bond traders were buying bonds because investors were giving them 
money to buy them!

In other words, even though it may have been retail customers 
plowing cash into bonds today, the demand was there and drove 
prices higher (YIELD lower as a result).  

Once again, stocks really seemed to suffer the consequences and 
were starved for cash.  As long as the 10-year YIELD stays back 
below the 4.8% level, I think bearish equity traders will 
continue to find some success.

Tomorrow's economic data

The MARKET seems to have a mind of its own and one has to wonder 
if the economic data gets listened to anymore.  Monday's 
stronger-than-expected ISM data sure didn't seem to.

Nonetheless, tomorrow's economic data has initial jobless claims 
due out before the opening bell.  Consensus looks to be 388K for 
the week ended June 29th and it will probably take every bit of 
that if not a number near 360K to get some attention.

Then at 10:00 AM ESM, the ISM Services report is due out.  
Consensus is for a reading of 58.2%.  While this is an important 
number, the ISM report from Monday leaves little surprise here 
and most economists still put more focus in the industrial side 
of things, which was reported on Monday.

An "industrial" we'll get when May Factory Orders are released at 
10:00 AM EST.  Consensus is for a 0.6% gain, up marginally from a 
previous gain of 0.4%.  

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician
PremierInvestor.net


================
Market Sentiment
================

How Low Can It Go?
By Eric Utley

I bet that question is on the minds of a lot of investors these
days.  Let’s take a look at some of the numbers being run through
the minds of investors tonight.  The Nasdaq-100 (NDX.X) in triple
digits at 964, the first time it’s closed in triple digits since
January of 1998.  The S&P 500 (SPX.X), of course, is in triple
digits, too.  But the level that concerns technical analysts most
is 940, which is near where the index closed Tuesday.  The 940
level is being watched by most chartists on the Street for its
implications of a break of the long-term head and shoulders that
is so obvious on the weekly chart.  IBM (NYSE:IBM) last traded at
$68 and change; Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) was going for $16.50; a share
of Lucent (NYSE:LU) costs you a buck or two; a share of WorldCom
(NASDAQ:WCOME) sells for a dime these days.

It’s simply amazing to think from where we’ve come in the last
two and a half years.  Yet for one reason or another, the public
keeps hope alive.  The public refuses to throw in the towel.
And until the public quits, until all hope is lost for stocks,
until stocks is a four-letter word, the market is going to go
lower.

We’ve talked about the need for capitulation in this column.
Indeed, the signs have been in the numbers, but each time they’ve
proven premature.  The readings in the ARMS Index (INDEX:TRIN)
are once again in extreme overbought territory, but this indicator
has a lot of credence this year in my opinion.  The bullish
percent figures are dropping to near historic lows, with the
Nasdaq-100 bullish percent ($BPNDX) a stock away from single
digits.  The advancing versus declining volume was horrendous
Tuesday.  Some 90 percent of Tuesday’s volume was down volume.
And forget about the new high/new low index.  All signs point to
the inevitable washout, but each time the market stares into the
abyss, it’s brought back by that lingering hope of a rally.

I’m not smart enough to predict if or when a capitulation will
come, so thereafter the market can begin the healing process.
It seems we’re getting closer with each passing day.  But I’m
starting to question whether or not we get a capitulation in
this bear market.  John Bollinger, one of the few CNBC guests
that I pay attention, held an interview last week in which he
suggested that this bear market would not end with a big
washout event.  I’m starting to agree with him.  A slow bleed
lower seems like the course ahead.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     :  9008

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9241
 50-dma: 9791
200-dma: 9811

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     :  948

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  986
 50-dma: 1049
200-dma: 1099

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     :  964

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1034
 50-dma: 1185
200-dma: 1397


Bank ($BKX)

The BKX was the best performing sector on my list today.  It
lost 1.37 percent for the day.  Pretty sad state of affairs.

The BKX was propped up by J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Wells
Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and Banc of America (NYSE:BAC).

52-week High: 924
52-week Low : 691
Current     : 804

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 825
 50-dma: 865
200-dma: 844


Gold ($XAU)

The XAU was the worst performing sector during Tuesday’s slide in
stocks.  Not even the once defensive gold stocks could muster a
bid.  They got slammed for 6.55 percent!

Leading downside movers included Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI), Agnico
Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM), Anglogold (NYSE:AU), Harmony Gold
(NASDAQ:HGMCY), and Placer Dome (NYSE:PDG).

52-week High: 89
52-week Low : 49
Current     : 70

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 76
 50-dma: 79
200-dma: 64

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX finished much higher relative to the VXN Tuesday.
The VIX gained more than 10 percent, while the pop in the
VXN was good for just under 4 percent.

The key here is if the two can take out their relative highs
hit last week.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 33.64 +3.08
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 59.59 +2.14

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          1.08        561,563       606,082
Equity Only    0.92        418,184       382,308
OEX            1.64         26,742        44,034
QQQ            0.86         55,355        47,345

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          47      - 2     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    10      - 3     Bear Confirmed
DOW           30      + 0     Bull Alert
S&P 500       36      - 2     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       33      - 2     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.67
10-Day Arms Index  1.76
21-Day Arms Index  1.49
55-Day Arms Index  1.39

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE        804          2468
NASDAQ      881          2598

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        50            220
NASDAQ      33            304

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,805
NASDAQ   2,718

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 06/18/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Get this, S&P commercials grew less bearish by a wide margin last
week.  They brought in their net short position by about 18,000
contracts.  Not by surprise, small traders grew less bullish by
about 12,000 contracts. 

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
06/04/02      369,298   440,027   (70,729)   (8.6%)
06/11/02      388,751   457,018   (68,267)   (8.1%)
06/18/02      437,530   487,956   (50,426)   (5.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/04/02      167,713    58,885   108,828     48.0%
06/11/02      174,357    69,464   104,893     43.0%
06/18/02      181,178    88,517    92,661     34.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq commercials eased off of their recent bullishness by
adding back a few more shorts.  Small traders went in the
opposite direction by adding a few more longs than shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
06/04/02       47,875     39,100     8,775    9.3%
06/11/02       45,946     36,878     9,068   10.9%
06/18/02       54,816     49,169     5,647    5.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
06/04/02       12,162    21,420    (9,258)    27.2% 
06/11/02       14,561    25,330   (10,769)    27.0%
06/18/02       20,883    29,153    (8,270)    16.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow commercials bought into the weakness last week to the tune of
more than 3,000 contracts added to their net bullish position.
Small traders made the money.  They added to their net short
position by more than 4,000 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/04/02       20,564    16,169    4,395     11.0% 
06/11/02       20,369    17,172    3,197      8.5%
06/18/02       25,995    19,115    6,880     15.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
06/04/02        7,114     9,639    (2,525)   (14.7%) 
06/11/02        7,500     9,925    (2,425)   (13.9%)
06/18/02        5,379    11,813    (6,434)   (37.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------


===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((new Active Trader BEARISH play))
===============

XL Capital - XL - close: 81.61 change: -1.42 stop: *text*

Company Description:
XL Capital Ltd, through its operating subsidiaries, is a leading 
provider of insurance and reinsurance coverages and financial 
products to industrial, commercial and professional service 
firms, insurance companies, and other enterprises on a worldwide 
basis. As of March 31, 2002, XL Capital Ltd had consolidated 
assets of approximately $30.6 billion and consolidated 
shareholders' equity of approximately $5.5 billion. (source: 
company press release)

Why We Like It:
There's certainly no shortage of ugly-looking sectors in the 
current market environment, and the insurance group is no 
exception.  Visual evidence of this weakness can be seen in the 
IUX.X insurance index, which suffered a hefty 2.5% loss today.  
The lack of historical data (the IUX did not trade from January-
June) makes it tough to gauge support levels, but a break under 
280 will take the index to all-time lows.

XL showed up on our bearish radar screens tonight after it fell 
to a new multi-month low.  Although the daily stochastics are 
already pinned at oversold levels, we believe the stock is poised 
for a more substantial breakdown.  A glance at the daily chart 
for XL reveals that the stock is currently in a "fast-move" 
region dating back to last September/October, when shares 
exploded from $61 to $95 in less than a month.  With shares 
trading at new relative lows, there's little to prevent XL from 
rapidly retracing some of these gains.  The descending triple-
bottom point-and-figure sell signal also portends more weakness 
in the near-term. 

Given the stock's steady decline, we don't expect the bulls to 
put up much of a fight at the $80 level.  Our expectation is that 
XL will decline to the $70-$75 region over the next few weeks.  
Those who are wildly optimistic could target the September lows 
near $61, but it would probably take some catastrophic company-
specific news for this to occur.  We won't enter this play until 
XL falls below today's low of $80.90.  If triggered, our initial 
stop will be located at $85.02.  This is above both Friday's high 
and psychological resistance at $85.00.  Mega-conservative 
traders could use a stop just above today's afternoon high of 
$82.07 and wait for a trigger under the $80 mark.

Picked on July xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       04/29/02
 






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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 07-02-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/g02b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls     
  Bearish Play Updates:  AT, FDC

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     ABT, FLR, XL
  Bullish Play Updates:  N, SPF
  Bearish Play Updates:  AIG, CBE, GR
  Closed Bullish Plays:  RCII
  Closed Bearish Plays:  ZLC

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  SNE
  Bearish Play Updates:  ALO, MYG, PLCM, PPL, QLGC
  Closed Bearish Plays:  CCK

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Alltel Corp - AT - close: 43.41 change: -1.43 stop: 47.47

The Combined Telecom Index (IXTCX) continues to trade downward 
almost on a daily basis, and today was not different.  The IXTCX 
declined 4% today, and weakness in this index pulled most telecom 
stocks, including Alltel, down with it.

But even with today's sharp decline, Alltel has now formed a 
potentially bullish double bottom on its daily chart, accompanied 
by a positive RSI divergence.  Additionally, both recent bottoms 
occurred right at the key 161.8% retracement of the May 13 - May 
28th advance.  Still, some technicians prefer to see double 
bottoms a bit wider apart than this one for AT, which occurred 
four days apart.  With the MACD still gaining speed, we could see 
the $40 level soon. However, given the broader markets incredibly 
oversold condition, a rebound in this stock is possible, we feel 
that it should be stopped by resistance in the $46.25-$47.00 
region. Our current buy stop is above this while conservative 
traders could use the 10-dma as a stop ($46.67) and extremely 
conservative traders could use the $45.00 mark as place to 
consider stops but if you do, be prepared to exit on any market 
bounce tomorrow.

We are setting our official short-term profit target at $40.50.

Picked on June 26th at $44.50 
Change since picked:    +1.09
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (confirmed)
 



---

First Data Corp - FDC - cls: 35.91 chg: -0.65 stop: 36.65 *new*

Although the broader market continues to look weak, we are 
noticing that some stocks, like FDC, have established patterns 
that may allow them to reverse sharply over the next day or two. 
Specifically, FDC has now formed a potential double bottom on its 
daily chart.  In order to protect the gains we have in this 
position, we're lowering our buy stop to a level just above 
today's high, and yesterday's close, $36.65.  If we are stopped 
out, this will still provide us with a modest 3.8% gain.

Additionally, we are adding a short-term official profit target 
of $34.30. This level is a good 80 cents above the key 61.8% 
retracement ($33.50) of FDC's extended September 2001 - April 
2002 advance.  We may rescind this in a few days; short term, 
though, we want to take profits in the event the broader market 
dives sharply lower, since such a decline may be followed by a 
sharp snap-back rebound.  We would discourage new positions at 
this time, given the possibility of a short covering rally.

Those traders who have a bit more faith in the bearish pattern 
developing for FDC may want to stock with wider stops and 
targets.  The $38 level should continue to act as resistance as 
should the 200-dma currently at $38.25 but the $35 level is 
acting as support thus new shorts are probably best considered on 
failed rallies at $38 or breakdowns below $35.00.  Once below 
$35, aggressive traders could target the $30 area.

Picked on June 24th at $38.09
Gain since picked:      +2.18
Earnings Date        07/11/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=============
AT New Plays
=============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------  

Abbott Laboratories - ABT - cls: 36.78 chg: -0.52 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Abbott Laboratories manufactures and sells a wide range of 
healthcare products and pharmaceuticals. 

Why We Like It:
Abbott travels with some fairly ugly company--the Pharmaceutical 
Index (DRG) for one, as well as other drug stocks like MRK, PFE, 
and LLY.  Each of these, possesses powerfully negative 
technicals, particularly their weekly RSI's, which are 
effectively pinned in oversold territory--and this is the region 
in which severe sell offs frequently occur.  Surprisingly, ABT 
has so far been able to avoid the "water fall" declines that have 
hit other drug stocks in recent days.  Granted shareholders are 
still looking at a 28% drop since ABT broke support at $50 in 
mid-May.  We think ABT's "good fortune" is just about over, 
though, and it seems likely it will soon begin its own 
accelerated decline in price. Here's why:  since June 12th ABT 
has been slowly meandering higher, building a pattern of higher 
lowers.  While volume has been a lot higher than average during 
the last couple of weeks it has been nothing like the sharp 
spikes we have seen on the quick drops.  Chart pattern 
recognition makes this look suspiciously like a bear flag (a 
slightly rising channel-like consolidation that breaks down into 
the preceding down trend).  Once ABT breaks this pattern of 
higher lows, the sharp downward price acceleration evidenced by 
its weekly RSI is likely to kick in.  The result: a "waterfall" 
decline in price that is fast, aggressive and painful. And we 
want to be there to short ABT when this breakdown occurs. 

Our strategy for shorting ABT is as follows:  1) short positions 
should be taken on a move below $35.85, which is just below its 
rising trend line, 2) we will not short ABT if it gaps below 
$35.50, and 3) once the short position is triggered, we'll use a 
buy stop placed a dollar above the break down point, and 
resistance, at $36.95.  We are looking for a fairly quick decline 
to at least $32.00, which is at the bottom of its weekly 
regression channel as well as its lower Bollinger Band (5-wma, 
1.7sd) on its weekly price chart.  We plan to exit at our 
official price target of $32.25.

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        07/11/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Fluor Corp. - FLR - close: 36.46 change: -1.22 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Fluor Corporation provides a diverse array of engineering, 
procurement and construction services, as well as total asset 
management, to corporations on a global basis.

Why We Like It:
On the news front, Flour has been as quiet as a church mouse.  No 
earnings pre-announcements.  No downgrades.  Accounting 
questions?  Nope, nothing there either.  Fundamentally, we don't 
have a knob on which to hang our short-inclined hat.

But like so many of the other stocks we have profiled in Premier 
Investor in recent days--both as new plays and Watch List 
candidates--this stock is displaying a pattern that has broken 
down time after time in recent weeks.  Since May 17th FLR has 
been oscillating higher, producing a pattern of higher lows. Our 
experience has been that when the trend line under these lows is 
pierced, the result is considerable price weakness.  In the last 
two weeks FLR attempted on several occasions to break above its 
declining 50-dma, as well as its near-by flat 200-dma.  It 
failed, and FLR now sits, once again, atop the rising trend line 
of higher lows formed since May 17th.  The daily RSI has already 
broken its trend line; since this indicator will frequently break 
out, or down, a day or two before prices, we feel there is a very 
good chance that FLR will begin its breakdown within just a day 
or two.

Our strategy will be as follows:  1) short positions should be 
assumed as FLR breaks below its trend line (that is, below 
$35.95), 2) but we will not short FLR if it gaps below $35.75, 
and 3) once short, we'll employ a buy stop at $37.36.  We believe 
FLR is capable of declining to at least $32.00, and $30.00 is 
definitely not out of the question.

Picked on July xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         07/30/02 (confirmed)
 



---

XL Capital - XL - close: 81.61 change: -1.42 stop: *text*

Company Description:
XL Capital Ltd, through its operating subsidiaries, is a leading 
provider of insurance and reinsurance coverages and financial 
products to industrial, commercial and professional service 
firms, insurance companies, and other enterprises on a worldwide 
basis. As of March 31, 2002, XL Capital Ltd had consolidated 
assets of approximately $30.6 billion and consolidated 
shareholders' equity of approximately $5.5 billion. (source: 
company press release)

Why We Like It:
There's certainly no shortage of ugly-looking sectors in the 
current market environment, and the insurance group is no 
exception.  Visual evidence of this weakness can be seen in the 
IUX.X insurance index, which suffered a hefty 2.5% loss today.  
The lack of historical data (the IUX did not trade from January-
June) makes it tough to gauge support levels, but a break under 
280 will take the index to all-time lows.

XL showed up on our bearish radar screens tonight after it fell 
to a new multi-month low.  Although the daily stochastics are 
already pinned at oversold levels, we believe the stock is poised 
for a more substantial breakdown.  A glance at the daily chart 
for XL reveals that the stock is currently in a "fast-move" 
region dating back to last September/October, when shares 
exploded from $61 to $95 in less than a month.  With shares 
trading at new relative lows, there's little to prevent XL from 
rapidly retracing some of these gains.  The descending triple-
bottom point-and-figure sell signal also portends more weakness 
in the near-term. 

Given the stock's steady decline, we don't expect the bulls to 
put up much of a fight at the $80 level.  Our expectation is that 
XL will decline to the $70-$75 region over the next few weeks.  
Those who are wildly optimistic could target the September lows 
near $61, but it would probably take some catastrophic company-
specific news for this to occur.  We won't enter this play until 
XL falls below today's low of $80.90.  If triggered, our initial 
stop will be located at $85.02.  This is above both Friday's high 
and psychological resistance at $85.00.  Mega-conservative 
traders could use a stop just above today's afternoon high of 
$82.07 and wait for a trigger under the $80 mark.

Picked on July xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       04/29/02
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Inco Ltd. - N - close: 21.78 change: -0.50 stop: 21.38

N looked technically strong last week but thus far hasn't been 
able to overcome the broader market weakness.  Shares were hit 
with a 2.2% loss today, nearly doubling the decline on the Dow 
Jones.  The stock trended lower for most of the session and 
finished near the worst levels of the day.  On a more encouraging 
note, today's decline was not backed by strong volume.  The bears 
may have trouble gaining much traction as long as shares remain 
above the 50-dma ($21.46).  Aggressive traders can target new 
entries on a bounce from this level, but be sure to first confirm 
that the broader market indices are bouncing.  Fighting the tape 
is usually a losing proposition.

Picked on June 14th at $21.42
Change since picked:    +0.36
Earnings Date        04/16/02 (confirmed)  


 

--- 

Standard Pacific - SPF - close: 32.30 change: -2.11 stop: 31.70 

This long play was activated on Monday when SPF traded at $35.41. 
The company announced this morning that its June orders rose 
75%, due in large part to acquisitions in Florida.  That's the 
sort of fundamental strength that gave us a bullish bias on the 
stock.  Investors, however, paid little heed to the strong 
numbers.  SPF moved lower with the DJUSHB homebuilding index and 
gave back 6.1% to close under the 50-dma.

Given the bearish turn in the MACD and daily stochastics, it 
appears likely that we'll be stopped out of this play within the 
next few sessions.  A full-fledged short-covering rally in the 
broader market could save us from this fate, but until that 
occurs we would not be looking to open new positions.  Ultra-
aggressive traders could consider entries on a move above the 50-
dma at $33.21.

Picked on July 1st at $35.41
Change since picked:   -3.11
Earnings Date       07/23/02 (unconfirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

American Intl - AIG - cls: 65.42 chg: -1.70 stop: 67.39 *new*

AIG continues to be pressured by the top of its descending 
regression channel.  Shares of the insurance company 
underperformed the Dow Jones on Tuesday and pulled back by 2.5%  
The bulls seemed to throw in the towel after AIG fell under the 
50-dma at $67.38.  Shares stair-stepped lower for the entire 
session and hit our entry trigger of $65.48 in the final half-
hour of trading.

Today's close was the lowest in over two weeks, and the stock now 
looks poised to fill its June 15th gap.  A severe decline in the 
broader market (like the one we had today) could quickly send AIG 
to the bottom of its regression channel.  We're going to set an 
official exit price near this region, at $61.26.  Traders still 
looking to get short can wait for break under today's low of 
$65.31, or potentially better, wait for shares to trade under the 
$65.00 mark or consider another failed rally at the 50-dma 
($67.36).  Note that we're placing our stop just above this 
level, at $67.39.  More patient traders should probably leave 
their stops above the top of the descending channel currently 
near $68.50 to $69.00.  P-n-f enthusiasts may be interested to 
know that a trade at $65.00 will produce a triple-bottom sell 
signal.

Picked on July 2nd at $65.48
Gain since picked:     +0.06
Earnings Date       07/25/02 (unconfirmed)


 

---

Cooper Ind. - CBE - close: 37.71 change: -1.51 stop: 40.01 *new*

Much like Martha Stewart's career, CBE appears to be building 
downside momentum.  Shares have trended lower following Friday's 
bearish reversal, and today's 3.8% decline resulted in the lowest 
close since March.  Although the relative low of $37.00 may 
provide some support, the downtrending MACD and daily stochastics 
(5,3,3) suggest that CBE may be due for a more severe decline.  
New entries can be gauged on a failed rally at the 200-dma or a 
break under today's low of $37.45.  To this end, we're going to 
place a profit-target at $36.01.  Although shares could fall 
below this level, we'd prefer to close the play on a sharp 
intraday spike lower.  In order to lessen our upside risk, we're 
also moving our stop to $40.01, about 60 cents above the 200-dma.  

Picked on June 24th at $39.81
Gain since picked:      +2.10
Earnings Date        04/23/02 (confirmed)
 

 

---  

Goodrich - GR - close: 25.77 change: -0.70 stop: 28.01 *new*

Last week we speculated that the recent ramp-up in the DFX.X 
defense index might have been a result of end-of-quarter window 
dressing.  This led us to believe that the index would head lower 
after the temporary buying dried up.  Our theory seems to have 
been confirmed by the past two days of declines on the DFX, which 
has given back all of last week's gains. 

GR followed the sector lower on Monday and closed well under the 
200-dma ($27.12).  Today's action resulted in more technical 
damage, as shares lost another 2.6% and set a new relative low.  
The recent reversal in the daily stochastics (5,3,3) portends 
further weakness ahead.  A glance at the bar chart shows that GR 
is resting on loose support at $25.60.  A break below this level 
would place the stock in a "fast-move" region, which could 
quickly result in a retest of the January lows near $24.00, 
although one would need to watch the $25.00 mark for any 
psychological support.  With this in mind, we're going to set an 
official profit-target at $24.16.  We'll close this play if 
shares trade at or below that level.  Also note that we've 
tightened our stop to $28.01, slightly above Friday's high.

Picked on June 24th at $26.95
Change since picked:    +1.18
Earnings Date        07/24/02 (unconfirmed) 


 


===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Rent-A-Center - RCII - close: 55.33 change: -0.57 stop: 55.24

By all appearances RCII looked to be headed for the $60 level 
yesterday.  Our play was triggered at $58.13 after the stock 
moved to a new relative high.  On Friday the shares had closed 
over the 50-dma, the MACD had crossed bullish and daily 
stochastic oscillators were trending higher.  Thus the odds 
seemed good that RCII would trade higher over the next few 
sessions.  The broader market, however, had other ideas.  RCII 
fell sharply after its Monday morning spike and was unable to 
buck the steady downtrend in the Dow Jones.  Shares violated our 
stop-loss at $55.24 this morning, thus closing our play for a 
loss of 4.9%.
 
The technical developments that led us to choose RCII as a long 
play (breakout from consolidation, strong technicals) were 
nullified by the past two days of declines.  The strong volume 
behind today's decline does not instill much bullish confidence.  
Nonetheless, it'll be interesting to see how RCII performs in a 
positive market environment.  We'll be keeping an eye on the 
stock to see if it can break above the Monday high of $58.26.

Picked on July 1st at $58.13
Change since picked:   -2.89
Earnings Date       07/29/02 (unconfirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Zale Corporation - ZLC - close: 38.24 change: -0.26 stop: *text*

Shares of ZLC experienced a sharp short-covering rally yesterday.  
Fortunately, this play was never activated.  We considered 
leaving our entry trigger ($36.24) in place, but the upward 
reversal in the oscillators and close above the 200-dma 
ultimately convinced otherwise.  Aggressive traders could still 
consider shorting a move below Friday's low.  We're content to 
part ways with ZLC tonight and move on to more attractive short 
candidates.

Picked on June xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date        08/13/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  -------------------- 

Sony - SNE - close: 50.00 change: -1.55 stop: 47.48

Sony gapped up sharply on Friday, on the heels of stronger 
industrial production numbers in Japan, but since then it has 
consolidated.  Actual and psychological support of $50.00 treated 
the stock kindly today, and we feel there is a good chance that 
this level, or something close, will support SNE in coming days.  

Our stop remains at $47.48, just under the 200-dma.  Please 
remember that our official profit target is the area surrounding 
the 50-dma, which sits at $54.64.

Picked on June 28th at $52.70 
Gain since picked:      -2.70
Earnings Date        10/24/02 (unconfirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  -------------------- 

Alpharma, Inc - ALO - cls: 15.25 chg: -0.93 stop: 16.25 *new*

The Pharmaceutical Index (DRG) continues to be particularly weak, 
trading down 2.5% today.  ALO has recently displayed a greater 
relative weakness than the DRG. Today was no different. The stock 
successfully doubled the decline in the DRG, falling nearly 6%. 
Naturally, we were delighted.  With today's plunge, Alpharma has 
now broken below an important rising trend line that had 
previously offered important support to the stock since Mid-
March. This breakdown indicates to us that the stock is likely to 
begin a sharp decline, one that has the ability to eventually 
take it below $10.00 (although short-term traders should be happy 
with $14, near the March lows).  

Short term, though, we want to be prepared to take gains in the 
event the market experiences a one-day "meltdown" and then 
reverses.  With this in mind, our official profit target for ALO 
is now $11.25.  If this is not hit in the next few days, we will 
likely adjust this to something closer to $10.00.

Please note that we have adjusted our buy stop downward, to 
$16.25. After the close today, Noven Pharmaceuticals raised 
guidance and it is possible that this action will beneficially 
affect other drug stocks, like ALO.  Our new stop level is just 
above today's high and yesterday's close, as well as the trend 
line that ALO violated today.

Picked on June 26th at $15.95 
Change since picked:    +0.75
Earnings Date        07/29/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Polycom - PLCM - cls: 10.90 change: -0.22 stop: *see text*new*

We had recently forecasted a decline in PLCM to the $8.25 level, 
or lower.  After the close today, the company warned Wall Street 
that it expected to present earnings lower than consensus, and 
the stock promptly gapped down below $8.00 in after hours 
trading; at 7:30pm EDT, it is trading at between $7.45 - $7.50.  
When we apply Fibonacci retracements to the stock, we think that 
a decline all the way down to $4.50, or lower, is possible.  
Given this--and the likelihood of a sharp gap downward at the 
open--we are going to dramatically lower our buy stop, and we are 
going to "trail" this stop behind the stock as follows:  1) we 
will set our initial new buy stop AFTER tomorrow's open, 2) this 
stop will be placed $0.35 above the opening price.  If the stock 
trades down, as we expect, our trailing stop will be lowered as 
well, being $0.35 above the lowest intraday price.  We will 
continue this process until the trade is stopped out, whether 
that is tomorrow or some other future date.

With PLCM likely to experience extreme volatility tomorrow, we 
would discourage any new short positions at this time.  

Those traders who can't monitor the position tomorrow or use a 
true trailing stop may just want to consider closing their 
positions at the open, which should still be a significant gain.

Picked on June 27th at $11.80 
Change since picked:    +0.90
Earnings Date        07/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

PPL Corp - PPL - close: 31.86 change: -0.33 stop: 32.40 *new*

We noted on Friday that PPL's several day advance had brought it 
to a level that was outside the upper boundary of its most recent 
regression channel. We said that such moves usually precede 1) a 
strong breakout in the stock or 2) the stock's last gasp before 
starting to tumble lower.  In PPL's case, it was the latter. 
After watching its volume decline steadily during last week's 
rebound, PPL is now beginning to experience rising volume as it 
declines.  This supports our continued bearish outlook and short 
position.

Our official profit target remains at $24.75, and we will cover 
this position in the event that it drops to this level.  We've 
also decided to lower the buy stop to a point just above today's 
high and yesterday's low--$32.40.  Thus if we're wrong, we're out 
with an 80-cent loss.

We would discourage any new short positions in PPL until the 
stock has declined back below near term support at $31.00.

Picked on June 19th at $31.60 
Gain since picked:      -0.26
Earnings Date          7/18/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Maytag - MYG - close: 39.79 change: -2.24 stop: 42.30 *new*

Maytag confirmed today that it would release Q2 earnings on July 
16th.  Unfortunately for shareholders, the stock dropped over 5% 
on heavy volume along with the broad market weakness. Today's 
decline had MYG closing at the lower end of the modest support it 
has before it falls into a "fast move region" below $39.50.  The 
strong volume with today's decline could mean investors are 
getting out while they still have some profits left YTD.  Either 
that or investors are expecting MYG to offer its own recall as 
rival Whirlpool (WHR) did today for 17,000 washer/dryer units. We 
think it is only a matter of a day or two before the stock is 
dropping rapidly toward its 200-dma--now at $36.05. 

We have moved our buy stop down to $42.30.  Please note, though, 
that once MYG drops below $37.00, we are going to use a trailing 
stop process in which our stop will be set $0.70 above MYG's 
intraday low.  If, for example, MYG were to gap down to $36.95, 
our stop becomes $37.65; the stop is then lowered as the stock 
trades down.  We will use this trailing stop process to 
eventually take us out of the trade.   If MYG can break through 
support at the 200-dma, we think that a further decline to $32.50 
is possible.  The trailing stop method will help us to 
potentially capture this move, should it occur.

Picked on June 56th at $41.82
Change since picked:    +2.03
Earnings Date        07/16/02 (confirmed)
 



---

QLogic Corp - QLGC - close: 34.43 change: -1.46 stop: 40.27

We don't know if it was the name of the firm, or just the 
overwhelming weakness of the Semiconductor sector, but 
yesterday's initiation of coverage by Punk Ziegel & Co ("Buy" 
rating) has done little to help QLogic.  Today's opening weakness 
caused our short position in the stock to be triggered as QLogic 
traded down to, then below, $34.68.  On the day, the 
Semiconductor Index (SOX) traded down slightly over 5%, while 
QLGC dropped 4%.  The SOX continues to look technically very 
weak, and we doubt that tonight's after hours Q2 EPS warning from 
Bell Micro (BELM)--which itself is part of the semiconductor 
complex--is likely to help matters when trading begins tomorrow 
morning.  We expect the sector, and QLGC, to be under pressure 
from the opening bell.

Our initial buy stop is at $40.27; as we noted last night, this 
level is above both near term resistance and psychological 
resistance at the $40.00 level.  Although we think the stock can 
eventually decline to the $24.00-$25.00 region in coming weeks we 
are going to use a trailing stop process to take us out of the 
trade as follows:  1) once QLGC trades below $32.00 our buy stop 
will be placed $1.00 above this, and 2) as QLGC trades lower, our 
stop will follow it lower, always just $1.00 above the intraday 
low until we are stopped out of the trade.  The reason for the 
tight stop is the extremely oversold condition of the 
semiconductor index (SOX).  The SOX came within just a few points 
of touching its intraday Sept. 2001 lows.  Considering its three 
big losses in a row, we could expect a sharp pull back.  While 
this group may not be able to breakout of the current downtrend 
it could easily rally back to the 380 level (it closed at 348).  
On the bearish side, we could also see the index break through 
its Sept. lows and then QLGC could really play catch up.

New short positions can be entered on a move below today's low of 
$33.17. Traders shorting the stock at this level may wish to 
employ our trailing stop approach in order to manage risk.

Picked on July 2nd at $34.68
Gain since picked:     +0.25
Earnings Date       08/06/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Crown Cork Seal - CCK - close: 5.56 change: -0.59 stop: 7.41 

We recently articulated an official exit price for our short 
position in CCK of $5.56.  CCK hit that level during today's 
decline, during which Crown Cork reached an intraday low of 
$5.32. While CCK might move lover in coming days, the stock 
closed right on top of its 200-dma.  With this kind of close, we 
feel that the odds of a sharp rebound are increasing. Our 
preference is to take the gains and not look back.  We close this 
trade with a $1.75 gain, or 23.9%.

We may revisit this stock if a rebound back to resistance, near 
$6.75, fails in coming days.

Picked on June 20th at $7.31 
Change since picked:   +1.75
Earnings Date        07/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BTI     British American Tobacco    22.51     +0.86

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

.. none ..          

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CHTT    Chattem Inc                 32.58     +1.35

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

PEP     Pepsico Inc                 47.75     -1.27
VZ      Verizon Communications      37.17     -1.07
CAH     Cardinal Health Inc         54.41     -2.89
ADP     Automatic Data Processing   40.60     -1.61
DNA     Genentech Inc               29.95     -2.30
PNC     PNC Financial Services      49.58     -2.06
SLC     Sun Life Financial Svcs     20.38     -1.31
SYK     Stryker Corp                49.26     -2.47
USAI    USA Interactive             20.66     -1.59
NTRS    Northern Trust Corp         41.00     -1.98
MCK     Mckessen Corp               30.75     -1.25
LLTC    Linear Technology Corp      28.19     -2.05
FD      Federated Dept. Stores      36.19     -1.54
EL      Estee Lauder Cos Inc        32.50     -3.10
CSC     Computer Sciences Corp      40.45     -1.23
BDX     Becton Dickinson & Co       30.98     -2.80
DGX     Quest Diagnostics Inc       75.01     -5.59
LH      Laboratory Corp             40.30     -2.66
ACS     Affiliated Computer Svc     43.48     -2.17
SPW     SPX Corp                   105.86     -7.12
PDCO    Patterson Dental            46.69     -2.59

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AZO     Autozone Inc               72.96     -3.59
CINF    Cincinnati Financial Corp  44.95     -1.46
PHM     Pulte Homes Inc            54.97     -2.97
CTX     Centex Corp                54.54     -3.56
ADS     Alliance Data             23.70     -1.45
HRH     Hilb Rogal & Hamilton     40.84     -4.31
WHI     W Holding Company         22.18     -1.10
NCEN    New Century Financial     30.14     -2.58
CHG     CH Energy Group Inc       47.88     -1.36
NFI     Novastar Financial        28.29     -5.70
GSK     GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR   41.04     -1.34
UOPX    Univ. Of Phoenix Online   26.25     -2.75




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