PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 07-03-2002 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/g03b_1.asp ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Traders are learning patience. Watch List: WWW, CLX, IBM, ADBE, V, DHR, and more... Play of the Day: No P.O.D. for Friday - We're expecting a choppy, volatile, low-volume session. ******************************************************************* MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ******************************************************************* 07-03-2002 High Low Volume Adv/Decl DJIA 9054.97 + 47.22 9070.89 8897.54 1540 mln 1215/1903 NASDAQ 1380.17 + 22.35 1380.38 1336.06 2629 mln 1492/1910 S&P 100 474.41 + 4.30 474.60 463.65 totals 2707/3813 S&P 500 953.99 + 5.90 954.30 934.87 RUS 2000 429.47 - 3.37 432.84 429.47 DJ TRANS 2596.76 - 23.12 2639.12 2568.18 VIX 33.37 - 0.32 35.35 32.89 VIXN 60.08 + 0.51 62.25 59.61 Put/Call Ratio 0.95 ******************************************************************* =========== Market Wrap =========== I once heard of an elderly couple who lived in the mountains. Apparently, they had to call the forest service to remove a bear that had become intoxicated from eating fermented berries from the native bushes near by! Drunk bears, geesh. The Stock Traders Almanac states that historically July has ONLY been down three times in the last 12 years. However, the Almanac also states that July is the start of NASDAQ’s worst four months of the year and that July can be very unpleasant in a bear market. The bears ask, "Is it happy hour yet?" On that note, perhaps the bears are not through feasting on the market, but are (I hate to be blatant) drunk after feasting on the fermented berries of investor worries. Speaking to traders on the floor of the Pacific Stock Exchange, sentiment is mixed to worried. According to Dennis Lanni, a market maker in AMAT and MU for TD Equity Options, many of the traders are starting to "look long while shorting volatility." Mr. Lanni also points out that floor traders are traditionally contrarian due to the nature of their order flow. What does this mean to us? Hold that thought for a moment. Mr. Lanni also stated (and again I hate to be blunt), "I only know one trader on the floor who is b@!#$ out short." I’ll get back to that in a moment too. NYSE volume totaled 1.54 billion shares with 1215 advancers and 1903 decliners. NASDAQ tipped 2.64 billion in overall volume, with a meager 1492 advancers under 1910 decliners. Despite gains in the major indices, total breadth of the market remains bearish. Overall the Dow closed up +47.22 at 9054.97, with the NASDAQ following with slight gain of +22.35 closing at 1380.17. Strong sectors for the day included: software, storage, semiconductors, wireless, telecom, and oil service. Weak players in today’s markets were: biotech, Internet, drug manufactures, broker/dealers, networking, and defense. Economic reports for the holiday week have been mixed. Construction spending fell -0.7% from an expected 0.2%. Construction Spending is made up of three areas: residential, non-residential, and public expenditures on new construction. Because of the volatility in reporting regarding Construction spending, only a trend of three months or more could potentially create market impact. Truck sales beat estimates of 7.2M at 7.4M. Auto sales were slightly down 0.2 to 5.8M from and expected 6.0M. Auto Sales account for approximately 25% of all consumer demand, so they are an important measurement of consumer sentiment. Big ticker items like autos and truck are also interest rate sensitive, and make the automotive sector a leading indicator of business cycles. Factory orders increased 0.2% to 0.7%. 54% of the Factory Order equation is comprised of durable goods, and economists also use this number to calculate GDP. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 382,000 from 393,000 the previous week. Employment Data is to be released on Friday. The overall day finished positive on the boards with many publications mentioning the bears being fended off. Most suspect the bounce was due to shorts covering positions ahead of the holiday but some believe bargain hunters were out in full force trying to capitalize on the discounted tech market. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) rebounded 6% off of a multi year low, with Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ:SUNW) also presenting a respectable 12% gain on earnings optimism. On the other side of the pond, (NYSE:AMD) Advanced Micro Devices warned a second time saying second quarter sales could be as low as 600 million dollars. Openwave (NASDAQ:OPWV) greatly missed its quarterly loss target by nearly twice Wall Street’s expectations, causing the stock to plummet 58%. OPWV predicted to fall short of earnings 17 to 22 cents. Looking ahead to Friday, we will see a half-day with many traders being absent. Of course the Employment Data is a number to watch, though program trading volume might be more important. Holiday half days can be dangerous because of the anemic volume and sometimes lack of experience by assistants left to handle trading. In the past there have been days when anemic volume gave way to program trading that was able to push certain stocks through resistance with relatively low volume. This is most likely not going to happen however, watch volume and look for the programs to kick in. Chart of the U.S. Dollar The above chart of the Greenback (dx00y) shows today’s rally with a close at 107.10. The dollar attempted to fill the window, which was created during the gap down last week. Although it failed directly at resistance (the top of the window), a push above the 107.40 area, will gain short-term support. According to "The Handbook on Technical Analysis" by Darrell Jobman (1995 McGraw- Hill), a gap of this type preludes a future move down. The formula used to predict the future price is to find the total gap amount and subtract it from the bottom of the initial gap down. If this concept holds true, the dollar could see 104.30. Time will tell. This chart is a five day fifteen minute chart and shows all trend indicators currently mid-range. Sounds about right for the day before the Fourth of July. Chart of the Japanese NIKKEI index vs. and its similarities to the recent chart of the NASDAQ 100 index. Despite the ugly, and hand drawn chart, it is accurate. What this chart displays is the relationship between the NASDAQ 100 and the Nikkei. The Nikkei is graphed from January 1994 to June 1995, and the NASDAQ 100 is from April 1994 to June 2002. Amazing resemblance isn’t it? There have been more than a few comparisons recently to the deflation in the Japanese markets and economy and what could be happening here at home and the Nasdaq. If we are to look at the correction of the Nikkei, and potentially model it as a future pattern for our own correction, then well, the outlook for bulls and bears is sideways. Fortunately for U.S. investors, we have an active government agency the FOMC helping regulate interest rates and a corporate environment that is quick to discount flaws in the system. Not to mention our banking sector is a relatively healthy compared to the banking system in Japan who is still suffering from non- performing loans created during the Japanese bubble. Back to Mr. Lanni. I was amazed to hear the lack of certainty on the floor. Even floor traders are being very protective of their positions. I think the comments produced display a sincere lack of bravado by most traders to "stake it all". Why would you want to gamble with so much uncertainty? With today’s mixed bag of happenings, Friday could go either way. I think I would lean towards more short covering to produce modest gains in a substantial down trend, especially if the fourth of July is uneventful in regards to terrorist activities. When I asked Mr. Lanni about the expected attendance of floor traders on Friday, his reply was: "depends on the drink specials down the street." He may have a plan. Taking the day off and spending time with our families seems like a good idea. Although the staff at PremierInvestor.net will be here on Friday for those who just can't stop watching the markets. Just remember the markets close early on Friday. More importantly, take time to say thank you to the next veteran or active-duty armed forces you run into or meet as we celebrate our independence. This is still the greatest country in the world and we owe it all to those willing to protect our freedoms. - Mark W. ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Watson Wyatt Co. - WW - close: 22.74 change: -0.07 WHAT TO WATCH: Watson Wyatt has been in a broad sideways consolidation since May 15th, trading consistently between its declining 50-dma and its flat 200-dma. This triangular pattern is now on the verge of breaking down; the daily RSI has now broken its upward trend line and this portends a similar break in price, below $22.20. Traders could short on a break below this level, looking for a decline to the 61.8% retracement ($19.50) of its Sept. 2001 - April 2002 advance. A buy stop placed above the 50-dma, at about 24.30, would be important. --- International Bus. Machines - IBM - close: 70.51 change: +1.93 WHAT TO WATCH: IBM has been in a short-term consolidation since June 21. Our momentum indicators suggest that it may rebound to resistance, just under $73.50. If it turns down at this level, traders should then watch for IBM to trade lower, eventually breaking below the lower boundary of its consolidation. Aggressive traders might short the stock on a failed rally near $73.50. Less aggressive traders may wish to simply short once it breaks the lower boundary of its consolidation, at $67.31. --- ADC Telecommunications - ADCT - close: 2.24 change: +0.17 WHAT TO WATCH: ADCT has now formed a dangerous two-week wedge at the bottom of its May 17th - June 21st steep decline. The daily trading range in a wedge is effectively squeezed tighter until prices explode out of the wedge, one way or the other. Volume has been declining as this upwardly trending wedge has formed, and this is a bearish indication to us. With the telecom sector horrifically weak, we think ADCT will break down in coming days. Aggressive traders may want to short the stock on a break below the lower boundary of the wedge, at $2.01. Since the stock may have psychological support at this depressed price level, It might make sense to short it below, for example, the $1.95 level. Since triangles/wedges can reverse sharply, a buy stop placed back inside the wedge, at about $2.15, would be appropriate. --- Clorox Company - CLX - close: 41.11 change: -0.06 WHAT TO WATCH: After declining from a high of $47.72 on June 10th to a short term low of $40.60 on June 26th, CLX moved into a small sideways consolidation that has taken place on either side of CLX's 200-dma. It appears to us that CLX will fail in its bid to successfully move back above the 200-dma; as such, this stock appears to be an attractive short on a decline below today's low of $40.35. Buy stops should be placed above resistance, and the 200-dma, at about $42.75. The decline that takes place in the stock should retrace 61.8% of the stock's December 2000 - May 2002 advance. This means a decline to $36.00 is likely in coming weeks if CLX breaks down as we expect. --- Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 27.04 change: +0.63 WHAT TO WATCH: Since June 20th, Adobe has been building a small consolidation well below both its 200-dma and 50-dma. With Soundview Technology's June 26th "Neutral" rating on ADBE--hardly a massive vote of confidence--the stock's performance has continued to be lackluster--until yesterday. That's when the stock began to fall out of its consolidation. Technicals on the stock are mixed--the RSI is attempting to rise out of its oversold condition--but we still think there is a good chance that more weakness will hit ADBE. With an estimate of a decline to less than $19.00, we think this stock could offer an attractive shorting opportunity. Traders should short on a move below yesterday's low ($25.46). It may be a few days before this level is hit, since ADBE is likely to rebound to the $27.50 - $28.50 region before it breaks the lower boundary of its consolidation. --- Burlington Resources - BR - close: 37.94 change: +0.52 WHAT TO WATCH: Beginning in early March, BR embarked on the formation of a longer term head and shoulders pattern that has formed along its 200-dma. Although this pattern has not yet broken down, it is very close. A move below $36.40 begins this breakdown, and traders may want to short the stock if this occurs. Using the standard "neck line to peak" rule of thumb for calculating the distance a breakdown might travel, we're left with an $8.00 decline from the neck line--or a move to the $29 - $30 region. It is important to remember that not all head and shoulder patterns break down, since they are also triangular consolidations formed off of an advance--and this pattern has bullish implications. Short positions should be accompanied by a reasonable buy stop, probably placed above resistance and the 200-dma, near the $39.50 level. --- Danaher Corporation - DHR - close: 62.39 change: -1.56 WHAT TO WATCH: We shorted DHR a few weeks ago and we think the stock is nearly ready for another move downward. It is currently sitting on a broad but short consolidation that has been in place for the last 3 weeks. Prices have been well below a declining 50-dma, and today the stock finished under it's 200-dma. Yesterday, the daily RSI broke the rising trend line that it established during this consolidation; prices nudged just below their trend line today. Volume spike upward today on this trend break, and we think that is a bearish omen for coming days. DHR is a short below today's low ($61.80). A stop placed just above the 200-dma, and resistance, at about 65.25 would be important. A decline to the 61.8% retracement (Sept. 2001 - April 2002 advance), and major support at about $56.00, is our estimate of the likely decline. --- Reuters Group PLC - RTRSY - close: 31.80 change: +0.30 WHAT TO WATCH: Reuters has been trading sideways since June 20th, and the stock looks like it might go either way on a breakout. Above $33.25 traders may want to go long this stock, since it moves into an upward "fast move region" and gap, that could take it up to nearly $36.00. The flip side of the coin is that a move below today's low of $30.60 starts another decline, and traders should probably be short at that point. --- Merrill Lynch - MER - close: 37.75 change: +0.50 WHAT TO WATCH: "Ugly" is pretty much the only adjective one can use to describe the bar chart for MER. The stock's been downtrending since March and is on course for a retest of its September low at $33.50. The bearish MACD and downtrending daily stochastics (5,3,3) indicate that MER has not yet reached oversold levels. Short entries can be evaluated on a break under recent support at $36.50. --- Vivendi Universal - V - close: 15.66 change: -2.10 WHAT TO WATCH: We'll spare you the gory details of Vivendi's recent slide, but accounting concerns and boardroom shakeups have definitely taken their toll. Fundamental weakness notwithstanding, we think V could be due for an oversold bounce...Or a "V-bottom," if you will. The stock is currently trading near the bottom of the descending regression channel that's dictated trading for most of 2002. Shares successfully tested this level today when they rebounded from an intraday low of $13.40. The high volume behind today's move indicates that we may have seen a near-term capitulation. Aggressive traders could target entries on a move above today's high of $15.80. We'd be looking for a short-covering rally to take V back to the $20 level. Take note, however, that only speculative capital should be used in such a trade. Additional negative news stories could quickly plunge V to new all-time lows. =============== Play-of-the-Day =============== No Play-of-the-Day for Friday - We're expecting a choppy, volatile, low-volume session. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 07-03-2002 section 2 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/g03b_2.asp ================================================================= In section two: Net Bulls Closed Bearish Plays: FDC Active Trader Non-Tech Stocks Stop Adjustments: GR (bearish) Triggered Plays: FLR, XL (bearish) Closed Bullish Plays: SPF Closed Bearish Plays: CBE High Risk/Reward Closed Bearish Plays: PLCM, PPL ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== =============== NB Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- First Data Corp - FDC - cls: 36.29 chg: +0.38 stop: 36.65 FDC continued its losing ways this morning and came within just 25 cents of our profit-target at $34.30. This must've really worn out the bears, because they decided to take the rest of the day off! Shares marched steadily higher for the remainder of the session and finished in positive territory. Our play was stopped out for a 3.7% gain when FDC violated our stop at $36.65. Today's rally was impressive, but we're rather dubious about its sustainability. The stock is still in multi-week downtrend and faces overhead resistance at $38.00 and the 200-dma at $38.30. FDC may once again present itself as a short candidate if it rolls over from this region. Picked on June 24th at $38.09 Gain since picked: +1.44 Earnings Date 07/11/02 (confirmed) ================================================================= Active Trader/Non-tech Stocks (AT) section ================================================================= =============== AT Play Updates =============== Stop Adjustments ---------------- Goodrich Corp - GR - close: 25.02 change: -0.75 stop: 26.06 *new* GR missed our exit target of $24.16 by just 15 cents today. Shares rebounded with the broader market in afternoon trading, albeit not as strongly as many other stocks. If today's reversal is the beginning of a more powerful rally, we have no desire to see our hard-fought gains turn into losses. Thus, we're going to move our stop down to $26.06, slightly above today's high. More conservative traders can protect a 5% gain by placing a stop at $25.61. Interestingly, since early June GR has had a tendency to rally back to previous resistance after setting a new relative low. If this pattern continues we'd expect the $26 level to provide resistance, as was the case early this morning. Triggered Short Plays -------------------- Fluor Corp. - FLR - close: 35.45 change: -1.01 stop: 37.36 This short play was activated on Wednesday morning when FLR hit our entry trigger at $35.94. FLR rallied with the Dow Jones during the latter part of the session but still posted its lowest close since February. This suggests to us that there may be more downside ahead, especially if the market sells off on Friday. New entries can be considered on a break under today's low of $33.19 or a failed rally near $36.00. Our stop is located at $37.36. --- XL Capital - XL - close: 81.30 change: -0.31 stop: 85.02 Shares of XL moved lower with the broader market this morning. Our short play was triggered at $80.89 when the stock slipped below Tuesday's low. A late-day rally was not enough to bring XL into positive territory, let alone challenge the Tuesday afternoon high near $82.00. Aggressive traders still looking to get short can watch for a rollover near this region, while others may want to wait for a break under today's low of $79.75. A close under this level would probably lead us to tighten our stop-loss, which is currently set at $85.02. =============== AT Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bullish Plays -------------------- Standard Pacific - SPF - close: 32.45 change: +0.15 stop: 31.70 Owing to its recent reversal and weak technical indicators, we were anticipating last night that SPF would see more selling in the near-term. That was the case today, as shares moved lower in tandem with the DJUSHB home construction index. Our play was closed when the stock violated our stop-loss at $31.70. This represents a loss of 10.4% from our original entry point. In hindsight, SPF fell victim to weakness in the homebuilding sector. The DJUSHB weathered two days of selling and may be gravitating to the June lows near 340. Although the index recouped most of its losses by the close, the bearish MACD oscillator is hinting at further weakness in the near future. SPF is displaying a similar MACD crossover and may eventually test the $28-$30 region. Bulls can take heart in the fact that SPF staged an impressive reversal today and actually finished with a gain, but considering that shares are still under the 50- dma ($33.16), we would not recommend any long positions at this time. Aggressive traders may want to take note that the longer- term bullish trend for SPF has not changed and the stock appears to be out-performing the sector index. Despite our own desire to avoid SPF for the time being, if the Dow Industrials rally next week, SPF looks poised to rally strongly with them. Picked on July 1st at $35.41 Change since picked: -3.71 Earnings Date 07/23/02 (unconfirmed) -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Cooper Ind. - CBE - close: 36.68 change: -1.03 stop: 39.44 We wish stocks always cooperated this nicely! Last night we set an official profit-target for CBE at $36.01. Our play was closed for a 9.5% gain when shares reached that level today, which happened to also be the stock's intraday low. This price action illustrates why we usually place action points one or two cents above/below whole numbers. Could CBE eventually reach the January lows near $30? Absolutely. However, the bears will have to contend with substantial congestion between $34-$36. Traders still short on CBE should consider challenging the stock with a very tight stop- loss. A short-covering bounce could materialize if the bears are once again unable to push CBE below $36.00. We wouldn't be surprised to see CBE rally back to the $37.50 or $38.00 level and close the gap from this morning's move. Picked on June 24th at $39.81 Gain since picked: +3.80 Earnings Date 04/23/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section ================================================================== =============== HR Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Polycom - PLCM - cls: 10.50 change: -0.40 stop: *see text* As we had expected, PLCM gapped sharply lower this morning. Investors were not pleased with last night's announcement that the company was expecting net income of only 6-7 cents/share for Q2, compared to the Wall Street estimate of 20 cents. In light of this news, we implemented the following exit strategy: "...our stop will be placed $0.35 above the opening price. If the stock trades down, as we expect, our trailing stop will be lowered as well, being $0.35 above the lowest intraday price." PLCM opened at $8.62 and proceeded to set an intraday low of $8.50. This resulted in our stop being set at $8.85. Shares reached this level during a powerful early-morning rally, at which point our play was closed for a gain of 25%. Frankly, we're surprised that PLCM rallied back to the $10.00 region. There wasn't any positive news to explain the morning rally. As a matter of fact, both Morgan Stanley and Pacific Growth Equities came out with bearish comments during the trading day. We suspect that the move higher was simply a result of massive short-covering. Aggressive traders can consider shorting PLCM again if it falls back below $10.00 or on a failed rally between $10.75 and $11.00, which is might do as it will have filled the gap from this morning. Picked on June 27th at $11.80 Change since picked: +2.95 Earnings Date 07/18/02 (unconfirmed) --- PPL Corp - PPL - close: 32.06 change: +0.20 stop: 32.40 Last night we tightened our stop in PPL to $32.40. This level was eclipsed during a sharp spike higher during the first half- hour of trading on Wednesday, and play was closed for a loss of 2.5%. Although PPL may eventually suffer the sort of breakdown that we had hoped for, the bears will have to contend with psychological support at $30 and the June lows near $29. A close above PPL's descending trendline (dating back to late April) would be decidedly bullish. Picked on June 19th at $31.60 Gain since picked: -0.80 Earnings Date 7/18/02 (unconfirmed) ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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