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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 07/18/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Thursday 07-18-2002
                                                    section 1 of 2
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      XL-ent!
Play-of-the-Day:  Bear Poker
Market Sentiment: What Never Goes Up Must Come Down

************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************
      07-18-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8409.49 -133.00  8621.95  8404.43 2.02 bln   1024/2138
NASDAQ   1356.95 - 40.30  1395.29  1356.80 1.80 bln   1025/2334
S&P 100   441.28 - 12.40   454.56   440.74   Totals   2049/4472
S&P 500   881.56 - 24.48   907.80   880.60 
RUS 2000  396.71 - 12.98   409.69   396.71 
DJ TRANS 2382.60 - 29.20  2435.12  2378.90   
VIX        39.95 +  0.15    41.33    38.24   
VXN        63.61 +  0.38    65.38    62.61 
Total UpVol   677.7M
Total DnVol 3,322.1M
52wk Highs        66
52wk Lows        436
TRIN            1.29
PUT/CALL         .93
*************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

XL-ent!

Bears appeared hungry today and bulls simply look like they are 
going to continue to stash cash in Treasuries as stocks lacked 
any type of follow through to yesterday's end-of-session marginal 
gains and Treasury yields headed lower again as investors plowed 
some cash back into the perceived safety of bonds.

By sessions end, the YIELD on the benchmark 10-year ($TNX.X) fell 
back below the 4.635% level to finish with a closing YIELD of 
4.61% and dragged the major market average with it.  The Dow 
Industrials fell 133 points to 8,409 (-1.55%), the S&P 500 
dropped 25 points to 881 (-2.7%) and the broader NASDAQ Composite 
slid 40 points to 1,356 (-2.8%).

Only the Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 70.69 +1.13% managed to show a 
gain greater than 1%.  The North American Telecom Index (XTC.X) 
410 +0.03%, Oil Service (OSX.X) +0.74% and Forest/Paper Products 
(FPP.X) 326 +0.03% were sectors showing modest gains.

Several sectors show losses greater than 4%.  Leading declines 
were the GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) 97.56 -5.36% after Siebel 
Systems (NYSE:SEBL) $9.61 -18% announced earnings of $0.06 per 
share last night, which missed estimates by $0.03 a share.  
Investors sold the stock in disgust and wondered why the company 
didn't warn ahead of the release.

Siebel Systems Chart - $1 & $0.50 box




Six consecutive "sell signals" (O column exceeding below a 
previous column of O) without any "buy signals" (X column 
exceeding above a previous X column) and investors proclaim their 
disgust and disbelief that the company didn't warn that it would 
miss estimates?  The only thing that might have "surprised" the 
MARKET is if the company had beaten estimates.

The insurance sector as depicted by the S&P Insurance Index 
($IUX.X) 249 -4.98% also suffered some steep declines today.

Bearish traders in our July 3rd bearish trade of XL Capital 
(NYSE:XL) 65.50 -12.08% know why as they found a belly full of 
gains after the provider of insurance and reinsurance products 
announced that it was increasing reserves for losses related to 
the September 11 attacks by approximately $200 million in its 
second quarter.  In addition, XL expects to report net investment 
losses of approximately $120 million for the quarter ended June 
30, largely due to investments in certain telecommunications 
companies. (They haven't been reading PI newsletters over the 
past year have they?).

XL Capital Chart - $1 box




The bearish profile in XL Capital (XL) couldn't have been timed 
too much better.  The bearish vertical count of $68 gave just 
enough downside to have a bear interested.  The bearish count, 
combined with the spread-triple-bottom sell signal at $82 
(Professor Davis' study revealed that the spread-triple-bottom 
pattern was profitable 86.5% of the time, for an average gain of 
24.9% over a 4.6 month time span under bear market conditions), 
hinted at a potential bearish target of $61.50.  As profiled, 
trader may have stopped out at the open ($66) as our bearish 
target as profiled was $70.  If still short, I'd certainly move a 
stop down to $68.10 if trying to target the probabilities of 
Professor Davis' study.  XL will be removed from the play list as 
the stock achieved our profiled bearish trade target.

Still waiting on the internals!

The bullish % charts of the various market averages continue to 
be interesting.

The more volatile NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) continued to show 
some gains, with a net gain of 1 stock to a "buy signal" today 
and currently reads "bull confirmed" at 35%.  As a comparison, 
last Thursday's reading was 21%.  Remember that the bullish % is 
NOT weighted and each of the 100 stocks gets "one vote" as it 
relates to the point/figure chart showing a "buy signal" or "sell 
signal" on the chart.

By comparison, the WEIGHTED NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 994.61 
-3.31% doesn't reflect the internal repair that is showing up in 
the bullish %.  This is what market technicians refer to as 
"bullish divergence."  In essence, what looks to be happening is 
that some of the more heavily weighted stock in this index are 
falling and weighing on the index's outward appearance.  Using 
the same time-period benchmark week-over-week as we did with the 
NASDAQ-100 bullish %, the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) closed at 
998.03, so it's down about 4-points (-0.4%).  Be very alert here 
as something has got to give!

Right now, I have to think that the strength shown in the NASDAQ-
100 bullish % and how the NASDAQ-100 has held up rather well 
during the past week is simply short-covering.

I'm still waiting for some type of "confirmation" from the also 
narrow, but not as volatile (less technology stock exposure) S&P 
100 Index (OEX.X) 441.28 -2.73% and its Bullish % ($BPOEX) which 
is still pegged near 15%.  Today's action did see a net gain of 1 
stock to a "buy signal," but the lack of improving internals 
begins to have the improving NASDAQ-100 internals suspect.  

In essence, while the NASDAQ-100 shows some internal repair, the 
lack of any type of "following" from the also narrow S&P 100 
certainly hints that while this market (S&P 100) is at a high 
risk level for bearish traders, stocks here just aren't seeing 
any type of meaningful demand improvements.

Even as we get away from the "100-stock indexes" like the NASDAQ-
100 and S&P 100 to the broader S&P 500 (SPX.X) 881.56 -2.7%, we 
see marginal internal deterioration.  Yesterday's S&P 500 Bullish 
% reading was 21.6% and tonight's reading is 21.2%.  This tells 
us that there was a loss of 2 stocks to sell signals on their 
point and figure charts.  While that's only 2 of the 500, any 
equity bull would certainly have wanted to see a net gain, not a 
net loss.

The point I'm trying to make in this section and review of the 
internals is what I tried to express in Monday's 03:00 PM EST 
update. 
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/markets/intradayupdates/071502_3.asp

Right now, the S&P 500 bullish % would be considered the "big 
river" and its internals continue to deteriorate even at these 
very low levels of bullish %.  To me, this means the river's 
current is still pretty strong on the downhill side of things.

Then we've got the "narrower" NASDAQ-100 internals acting like 
fish that are trying to swim upstream, against what looks to be a 
pretty strong current.  If bears stop covering their shorts in 
some of these stocks and the current remains powerful to the 
downside, then the fish that have given some "buy signals" will 
most likely get flushed back downriver.

Speaking of "fish"

If we're going to talk about the NASDAQ-100 as being "fish" then 
we've got to mention the biggest fish in the pond and software 
giant Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) $51.11 -1.71%.

Remember, that Microsoft (MSFT) is the LARGEST weighted stock in 
the NASDAQ-100 at 13.06% weighting!  The second largest weighted 
stock in the NASDAQ-100 is semiconductor giant Intel 
(NASDAQ:INTC) $19.15 -1.49% at a rather paltry by comparison 
6.13%.  For further comparison, Siebel Systems (SEBL) mentioned 
earlier accounts for just a 0.87% weighting.

Tonight, after the bell, Microsoft (MSFT) reported Q4 earnings of 
$0.43 per share, which was a penny better than consensus.  
Revenues came in at $7.25 billion, which was also better than 
consensus of $7.08 billion.  The company said results were 
boosted by stronger than expected unit sales for its XBox, after 
cutting its price to $199.

The company then went on to say that fiscal 2003 revenues look 
strong as unearned revenue growth is rising as the company signed 
a lot of annuity agreements.

Annuity agreements?  This has been a topic of discussion between 
our Information Technology (IT) staff and myself in recent weeks.

Now I'm not an "IT" guy, but as it has been explained to me (or I 
understand it), Microsoft is attempting to transition away from 
the "operating system in a box" type of platform and offering 
corporate customers an "annuity" type of agreement.

As I understand it, MSFT is sick and tired of recognizing just 
"one sale" of its operating system, then have it copied to about 
20-different computers and used.  You and I would associate this 
with "software pirating."

By offering the "annuity" MSFT can then have better control on 
who and how many users can then use a "sale" of their operating 
system.  Again, as I understand it, if you're a corporate 
customer, you're going to have to "sign up" for X-number of seats 
(users) and will only be able to use that many seats.

Under proper accounting, MSFT therefore CANNOT recognize these 
revenues right now, as these agreements don't go into effect 
until July 31, 2002.  Then, for those opting for the "annuity" 
type of license, it allows them to get upgrades over the course 
of the annuity arrangement, without necessarily having to pay 
extra for any upgrades.

I'll further discuss the potential "impact" and "dice rolling" 
that MSFT is doing with this new strategy.

On the company's conference call, Microsoft gave guidance for its 
upcoming Q1 (Sep) revenue and EPS of $7.0-$7.1 billion and $0.42-
$0.43, versus current consensus of $7.1 billion and $0.42 
respectively.

For full year 2003 (June 2003) revenue estimates were $31.4-$32 
billion and EPS guidance was $1.85-$1.91.  This compares to 
revenue consensus of $32.0 billion and EPS of $1.93.

The "below consensus" estimate for EPS on full year, appeared to 
be a bit of a negative and the stock did trade lower at $50.60 in 
after-hours trading.

The company did shine some light on the PC sector, saying that it 
expects it's PC software shipments (this is the MSFT software 
that is already installed on your new PC when you buy it) to be 
in the low to mid-single digit range in fiscal 2003, so basically 
no change from past guidance.

The PC software guidance, did appear to be marginal "good news" 
for Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) $19.15 -1.49% as the pc-chipmaker gained 
5-cents in after-hours, but Dell Computer (NASDAQ:DELL) $26.05 
-1.1% traded about 5-cents either side of their close on those 
remarks.

Now for the rest of the discussion between our IT staff and 
myself.  

Some will argue that MSFT's new strategy involving this "annuity-
based" type of billing to get a better control on "piracy," but 
also help smooth out revenue projection stability may have a kink 
in it and a kink that won't necessarily be decided very soon.

The Linux operating system is basically free, while the various 
MSFT operating systems cost money.  On the surface, one may begin 
wondering why anyone would pay money for an operating system when 
they can get one for free.  Right?

Well, I'm not about to go into great detail on all this (for one, 
I'm not really versed to do so anyway), but a company's IT 
support of a MSFT operating system comes at a much smaller cost 
when considering the cost of salaries for a MSFT-based 
administrator or support person, when compared to the salary of 
an administrator for a Linux-based system.

It becomes a case of, do I pay more for the MSFT operating system 
up front and less for the staffing requirements, or do I pay less 
for the Linux operating system and more for the staffing to run 
and program the system to meet my various needs.

Hmmmm.... I've noticed our IT guys are all trying to get up to 
speed on their Linux lately.  I wonder why?  Could it be they 
perceive a higher wage if they learn Linux?  As I look around, 
all the computers here are running MSFT operating systems!

Microsoft Chart - $1 box




Microsoft's supply/demand chart is bearish and the vertical count 
of $46 would be the near-term level of risk a bull is certainly 
having to deal with, while the $46 level is a bear's near-term 
target.  With the stock trading near $51, this presents a very 
difficult and unattractive risk/reward profile from which to 
attempt a full position trade.

From the "fundamental" side of things, a bear could argue in his 
favor that under some rather uncertain economic times, a new 
"annuity-based" revenue model launch may also be coming at a 
somewhat difficult time.

In the future, I do think a trader/investor can get up to speed 
on things as it relates to a pending Linux / MSFT operating 
system dilemma.  If you work for a company with an IT staff, ask 
them some questions.  The IT staffer might actually be flattered 
that you're actually coming to them with something than a 
complaint that your computer isn't working!

In my talks with the IT staff, one of them argues that Sun 
Microsystems (NASDAQ:SUNW) $5.79 +1.93% would most likely be the 
biggest benefactor of a Linux operating system win.  Sun 
Microsystems' computers are Linux capable (as I understand it).  

Sun Microsystems Chart - $0.25, $0.50 and $1 box




While our IT-staff has given me a scenario, right now I'm not 
seeing the "bullish" Sun Microsystems (SUNW) type of chart.  If 
the MARKET is all knowing and begins to figure things out, then 
at some point, SUNW's point and figure chart should give some 
type of "buy signal" is my thinking.  Currently that would come 
with a trade at $8.00.  Yep!  That's a whopping 38% gain from 
here, but a retest of the $4.50 level would be a 22% decline.  

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician
PremierInvestor.net


=========================
Play-of-the-Day           (New High-risk/High-reward BEARISH play)
=========================

Pinnacle Entertainment - PNK - cls: 9.20 chg: -0.70 stop: 10.01

Company Description:
Pinnacle Entertainment owns and operates seven casinos (four with 
hotels) in Nevada, Mississippi, Louisiana, Indiana and Argentina, 
and receives lease income from two card club casinos, both in the 
Los Angeles metropolitan area. The Company is developing a casino 
resort in Lake Charles, Louisiana.
(Source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
After recently forming a lower high at resistance near the $11 
mark, Pinnacle Entertainment looks as if it could attempt to test 
its 200-Day MA.  We are expecting that weakness in the gaming 
sector will help with a decline in our stock's price.  If the 
stock does fall, we could potentially see our price target of 
$8.00 at the 200-Day MA.  Stochastics (14,1,3) confirm selling 
pressure after recently falling below the lower line, triggering 
out entry on today's close.  The MACD has also crossed underneath 
the 0 line, with the histogram giving us further affirmation of 
potential selling.  Because this stock trades relatively thin, we 
are urging discretion with loose stops.  A cautious trader could 
actually raise their profit target by a dime to $8.10; ensuring 
that their order will be executed if the stock trades on the 
offer at $8.00.  We are putting a relatively tight stop on this 
trade at $10.01, where we will close the entire position if our 
stop is reached.  In a sense, we are immediately challenging the 
weakness of this stock by not giving our trade much room to 
breathe.  The trade will have to battle a slight bit of 
congestion at $9.00, though with an increase in volume, it 
shouldn't have much trouble breaking this level.  We would again 
like to urge caution in trading thinner, low volume stocks such 
as this one.  To avoid any unnecessary surprises, we suggest that 
traders decide what their own individual stop loss is and 
strictly adhered to it.  If the trades succeeds in meeting our 
goals, we could see a 13% return on this trade.  Understanding 
our risk, with stop at $10.01, we stand to lose 8.8% if the trade 
moves against us.  Because this is a higher risk, low volume 
trade, we have put it in our High Risk, High Reward section.   

Annotated Chart of: Pinnacle Entertainment, Daily.




Picked on July at  $     9.20
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/30/02 (confirmed)
 




================
Market Sentiment
================

What Never Goes Up must Come Down
By Steven Price

What started out looking like a rebound, once again soured as the 
day went on, with a 200 point downward swing in the Dow Jones 
beginning around 2:00 PM ET.  The earnings season's heaviest day 
started out on a positive note with IBM posted slightly better 
than expected earnings after yesterday's close. A drop in jobless 
claims seemed to foretell a positive trend in the labor market.  
However, the index of leading economic indicators was not so 
good, and contributed to a tempered reaction.

As the day wore on, the retreat covered most sectors.  S&P 500 
was down 24.48 to 881.56, the Dow fell 132.99 to 8409.49 and the 
Nasdaq dropped 40.30 to 1356.95.  The leading winners were Oil 
Services (OSX.X) and Gold and Silver (XAU.X).  Interestingly 
enough, the VIX was actually down fractionally on a very volatile 
day.  This may have had something to do with expectations of 
positive earnings news from Microsoft.  As Jim noted on the 
Market Monitor, we have reached some interesting support levels.  
The Dow now hovers just over 8400, and the SPX is just above its 
877 support.

Microsoft surpassed expectations by $0.01, earning $0.43 versus 
expectations of $0.42. Revenue also was up 10% to $7.25 billion.  
They did, however, reduce estimates for fiscal 2003, which began 
July 1.  Profits are now expected between $1.85 and $1.91 per 
share, down from analyst's expectations of $1.92.  After closing 
at $51.11, the stock was down slightly, trading at $50.80. 

AOL Time Warner Chief Operating Officer Robert Pittman has 
resigned, confirming the longstanding rumors that he was being 
forced out. That was the tip of the iceberg on a day when rumors 
circulated about the company improperly booking revenue, and a 
story in the Washington Post questioned unconventional deals AOL 
used to increase revenue before the Time Warner merger.

In other earnings news, EBay said they would match 3rd quarter 
earnings expectations, but revenue will be just under analyst 
predictions.  Gateway missed by $0.02, but confirmed targets for 
the rest of the year.  Sun Microsystems also met expectations.

The after hours markets have looked soft in these stocks, with 
Sun down almost 20% (trading just over $5 after a $5.79 close) 
and EBay down $1.25, in addition to Microsoft's slight pullback.  
However, Intel has done fine after disappointing earnings on 
Tuesday and IBM has been strong after beating expectations by a 
penny last night.

If the markets react negatively tomorrow we could be in for a 
very large down move. Below Monday's S&P 500 low of 876.46, the 
first real support appears to be under 800.  In the Dow, a drop 
below 8400 could see us retesting September's closing lows, as we 
did earlier in the week.  Below that the next significant support 
looks to be in the 8000 range and then 7500.  The bearishness is 
underscored by the CBOE's Put/Call ratio, which has soared back 
to .93, representing almost as many puts traded as calls.

As I noted a couple of days ago, the bullish percent in the 
Nasdaq 100 ($BPNDX) continues upward.  It has now surpassed the 
oversold level and appears on its way up.  The Bullish percent in 
the Dow, S&P 500, and OEX, however continue downward.  As long as 
the NDX continues to make new relative highs there seems to be a 
glimmer of hope.  Watch out, however, if the pattern reverses 
itself.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     :  8409

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8811
 50-dma: 9542
200-dma: 9819

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  876
Current     :  881

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  929
 50-dma: 1016
200-dma: 1094

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1782
52-week Low :  946
Current     :  994

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1007
 50-dma: 1132
200-dma: 1387


Gold and Silver ($XAU.X)

The XAU was back in contrarian mode today, rallying as the equity 
markets and dollar both slipped. The index has slipped, however, 
back to its 50% retracement level from its Nov 2001 to May 2002 
rally.  Last time the sector was here it rebounded to its 50-dma.  
Keep an eye on this factor as Placer Dome (PDG) and Barrick Gold 
(ABX) are removed from the S&P 500 at the end of tomorrow's 
trade.

52-week High: 89
52-week Low : 49
Current     : 70.69

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 73 
 50-dma: 78 
200-dma: 65 



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX was down slightly today, cracking back below the 40 
level, to 39.63.  This is still a very high reading, and has 
maintained itself in this range since last week.  Periods of high 
volatility reflect fear in the market place on everyone's part, 
since the OEX option bids would be repeatedly hit and taken down 
if anyone had confidence that the market would return to normal 
soon.  This has not happened.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 39.63 -0.17
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 62.99 -0.24

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.93        839,580       778,924
Equity Only    0.81        564,328       462,004 
OEX            0.70         73,306        51,657
QQQ            0.66         90,150        59,458

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          36      - 1     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    35      + 6     Bull Confirmed
DOW           13      + 3     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       21      - 1     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       15      + 1     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.22
10-Day Arms Index  1.26
21-Day Arms Index  1.47
55-Day Arms Index  1.36

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE        994          2124
NASDAQ      982          2303

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        29            211
NASDAQ      66            177

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     2,013
NASDAQ   1,591

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/09/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials gave back only 700 of their net long contracts, a 
small percentage change, maintaining a bearish position.  Small 
Traders added back a couple of thousand contracts to their long 
position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
06/18/02      437,530   487,956   (50,426)   (5.4%)
06/25/02      378,214   438,775   (60,561)   (7.4%)
07/09/02      396,321   456,164   (59,843)   (7.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/18/02      181,178    88,517    92,661     34.3%
06/25/02      134,380    62,792    71,588     36.3%
07/09/02      145,017    71,402    73,615     34.0%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100


Commercials added only slightly to their short position, 
maintaining the status quo. Small Traders reduced their long 
position by over 40%.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
06/18/02       54,816     49,169     5,647    5.4%
06/25/02       27,238     35,926    (8,688) (13.8%)
07/09/02       31,227     39,592    (8,725) (12.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
06/18/02       20,883    29,153    (8,270)   (16.5%)
06/25/02       14,749     7,570     7,179     32.2%
07/09/02       12,520     8,348     4,175     20.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow Commercials brought their long positions back up to their 
previous levels, adding almost 2,000 contracts. Small Traders 
maintained their previous bullish levels. 

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/18/02       25,995    19,115    6,880     15.1%
06/25/02       18,016    13,255    4,761     15.2%
07/09/02       20,761    14,122    6,639     19.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
06/18/02        5,379    11,813    (6,434)   (37.2%)
06/25/02        6,414     6,597       183     1.40% 
07/09/02        6,831     6,623       208     1.50%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 07-18-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
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In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bearish Play Updates:  INVN

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     BLL, LOW
  Bearish Play Updates:  BUD, FRK, SAH, THO
  Closed Bearish Plays:  FLR, XL

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:     BYD, PNK
  Bearish Play Updates:  JAS.A, NPSP

Split Trader
                         LSTR: 2-for-1 split announcement
                         TSCO: 2-for-1 split announcement

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
                         


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  -------------------- 

InVision - INVN - close: 25.10 change: -2.30 stop: 27.20 *new*

It took two days to start dropping, but INVN is cooperating 
nicely with our short play.  Shares were strong on Wednesday 
following news that the company had received a $106.8M order from 
the U.S. Transportation Security Administration.  However, the 
bulls seemed to be exhausted after pushing the stock to a new 
relative high of $28.96.  Our play was triggered in the first 
half-hour of trading today when INVN fell to $26.47.  
Technically, we're very encouraged by these developments.  INVN 
spiked above its (loosely-defined) ascending channel yesterday 
only to promptly get smacked back down.  This price action is 
often indicative of a near-term reversal.  The daily stochastics 
(5,3,3) are looking bearish as well, just beginning to fall from 
overbought levels.  The willingness of investors to sell into 
Wednesday's good news suggests that all the good news (i.e. new 
contracts) is already priced in.  

New entries can be evaluated on a failed rally near $27.00 or a 
break under $25.00.  Due to today's 8.3% decline, we're going to 
tighten our stop to $27.20, just above today's high.  More 
aggressive traders could use a stop above the 200-dma at $27.44.  
Also note that INVN reports earnings after the bell on Tuesday.  
We'll probably close this play ahead of the announcement.

Picked on July 18th at $26.47
Change since picked:    +1.37
Earnings Date        07/23/02 (confirmed)
 





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Ball Corp. - BLL - close: 38.25 change: -0.45 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Ball Corporation is one of the world's leading suppliers of metal 
and plastic packaging to the beverage and food industries. The 
company also owns Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp. Ball 
reported 2001 sales of $3.7 billion, of which approximately $3.3 
billion came from its packaging segment and $400 million from its 
aerospace and technologies segment. (source: company press 
release)

Why We Like It:
As shown above, Ball has its feet planted in two distinctly 
different sectors.  Unfortunately for shareholders, both of those 
sectors have been decidedly bearish in recent weeks.  The 
majority of Ball Corporation's business comes from the beverage 
and food industry.  Looking at some of the largest stocks in the 
beverage group (KO, PEP, BUD, RKY, and DEO), we see a common 
theme of heavy selling, although BLL's participation is limited 
to making the tin and aluminum cans and not the products that 
fill them.  The defense sector (as gauged by the $DFX.X defense 
index) has also been trimmed, as investors come to grips with the 
fact that the U.S. government may not have a large enough budget 
to fund all of the proposed military spending.  In other words, 
contracts that had previously been priced into defense stocks may 
not materialize.

Overall it seems that the Ball is getting bounced lower as 
investors sell everything in sight.  The economy is expanding, 
which is good news for Ball's main business but it's not 
expanding as fast as everyone thought it would.  This plus the 
defense sector-related negativity have weighed heavily on BLL.  
The stock has fallen under its 200-dma ($39.57) and is danger of 
setting multi-month lows.  Based on this violation of moving-
average support and the bearish MACD, we're expecting a continued 
decline in the near-term.  Also, with a Stochastics dip below the 
lower line, it looks as if BLL is about to encounter further 
selling pressure.  Specifically, we looking for BLL to move under 
our entry trigger at $38.17 (just under today's low) and make its 
way to the January lows near $32.  Although the near-term low of 
$37.51 and the $35 level, which was resistance back in November 
and December may provide some measure of support, we don't 
anticipate the bulls will offer more than a half-hearted defense 
of these levels.  If our play is triggered we'll use a stop just 
above the Tuesday high at $40.50.  Note that we'll likely be 
closing this play ahead of Ball's July 25th earnings report.  
Just for kicks, pull up a chart of BLL's Point-and-Figure chart 
and see if you can project its bearish vertical count?  We'll 
give you a hint.  It's under $30.

Picked on July xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        07/25/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

Lowes Companies - LOW - close: 37.85 change: -0.34 stop: 41.01

Company Description:
With 2001 sales of $22.1 billion, Lowe's Companies, Inc. is the 
world's second largest home improvement retailer. Headquartered 
in Wilkesboro, N.C., Lowe's is a Fortune 100 company and the 13th 
largest retailer in the U.S. Lowe's and its 110,000 employees are 
Improving Home Improvement for more than seven million do-it-
yourself retail and commercial business customers each week at 
more than 790 stores in 43 states (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Lately one of the hottest topics in financial circles has been 
whether the sinking broader market and steady news of corporate 
accounting fraud will have a negative impact on consumer 
confidence.  If the latest economic data is any indication, the 
bulls have a lot to be worried about.  On July 12th the 
University of Michigan released its preliminary consumer 
sentiment numbers.  The reading of 86.5 was substantially less 
than both the analyst consensus of 93.0 and the prior month's 
number of 92.4.  Considering that this data probably did not 
reflect the full impact of the WorldCom disaster, the next 
reading could be even worse.  As you might expect, the prospect 
of a spooked consumer has taken its toll on retail stocks.  The 
RLX.X retail index is approaching its September lows.  The big 
boys in the group - WMT, TGT, HD, and LOW - are doing the same.  

Based on its weak technicals, we think LOW is an especially good 
candidate for a short trade.  The stock broke through support at 
$42 last week and has fallen to multi-month lows (no pun 
intended).  Volume backing the recent decline has been stronger 
than the daily average.  And, although the daily stochastics 
(5,3,3) are currently pinned at oversold levels, the recent 
violation of bullish point-and-figure support is a sign of more 
weakness to come.  Exactly how much weakness, you ask?  Our 
initial profit target will be psychological support at the $30 
level.  However, if the retail picture gets really ugly we 
wouldn't be surprised to see a retest of the September lows at 
$25.  In terms of risk management, we're going to start this play 
with a fairly wide stop of $41.01.  This is a penny above the 
highs for the week.  Less risk-averse traders could use a stop 
just above psychological resistance at $40.00.  Short-term 
traders may also want to consider exiting at potential support 
near the $35.00 mark and the $32.50 area.  Both are areas of 
support/resistance in October 2001.

Picked on July 18th at $37.85
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        08/19/02 (unconfirmed)
 

 


  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Anheuser-Busch - BUD - close: 47.30 change: -0.30 stop: $48.05

After being triggered earlier in the week, our BUD short has been
slowly working in our favor.  BUD fell sharply on Tuesday, 
closing well below the 200-Day MA.  This is good news for our 
trade, though we are currently waiting for more follow through.  
Over the last two days, BUD has slowly rallied, attempting to 
poke its head up above the 200-Day MA once again.  Reasoning 
behind this move is that BUD had fallen so hard through the 200-
dma bulls could be hoping for an oversold bounce.  Fortunately 
this level of resistance is holding.  Actually, it's a good 
opportunity to consider new shorts as the stock fails at the $48 
level or the 200-dma.  Potential stock moving news was a filing 
yesterday with the SEC to sell $1 billon in debt securities.  If 
BUD continues to fail underneath the moving average, we expect to 
see our profit target fairly quickly.  However, because of the 
support implications of the 200-Day MA, we will keep our stop at 
$48.05, protecting ourselves in case of a strong bounce from 
these levels.         

Picked on July 15th at $48.75
Change since picked:   +1.45
Earnings Date       07/24/02 (confirmed)
 



---  

Florida Rock - FRK - close: 32.60 change: -0.57 stop: 34.11

After falling to multi-month lows on Wednesday, FRK staged a 
partial comeback rally, but has continued to drift lower.  During 
Wednesday's decline, FRK touched the bottom of its Keltner 
channel for the first time since our short was triggered, 
indicating potential follow through for a continued sell off.  Of 
course a rebound from the bottom of the channel is always a 
possibility, thus we will keep a stop tight at $34.11. With no 
news coming forward for the week, this trade is simply technical 
analysis at this point. Looking at an intraday chart, FRK has 
found a slight bit of resistance at $33.50, which will hopefully 
help our trade to decline to lower levels.  The official target 
for this trade is $30.06, where we will cover our entire trade.
   
Picked on July 10th at $32.99 
Gain since picked:      +0.39
Earnings Date         8/07/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Sonic Automotive - SAH - cls: 21.85 chg: +0.25 stop: 23.01
 
With no innovative news on Sonic Automotive, the stock has 
continued to trade in its descending channel over the last few 
days.  Our short is slowly working, with no new developments. The 
chart for competitor KMX also displays weakness, which is an 
encouraging sight!  Our only real concern is a potential rumor 
rally prior earnings in two weeks.  Of course we are always 
fearful of a technical rebound to the 200-Day MA, but we are not 
going to move our stop in light of this.  Our profit target 
remains at $20.66, where we will close all of our position.       

Picked on July 10th at $22.73
Gain since picked:      +0.88
Earnings Date        07/30/02 (confirmed)




---

Thor Industries - THO - close: 29.20 change: -0.79 stop: 32.71
 
Weakness in THO has definitely helped our trade move towards our 
target.  After shares dropped nearly 6% yesterday, we were happy 
to have entered at our trigger of $31.90.  Trading today remained 
mixed, with an intraday high of $30.78.  THO was not able to hold 
its highs, and continued to fall in the afternoon session.  We 
are pleased to see THO below support of its Keltner Envelope, 
indicating potential selling pressure into the 200-Day MA.  
Although this play was not opened on pure merit of a post split 
depression, this is definitely helping our cause.  To avoid being 
stopped out, we have elected to not move our stop on THO yet, as 
we could see volatility over the next few days.  There is no new 
news on Thor Industries but we see similar weakness in WGO.

Picked on July 3rd at $31.90
Gain since picked:     +2.70
Earnings Date       07/30/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  -------------------- 

Fluor Corp. - FLR - close: 32.08 change: -0.05 stop: 33.15

We've said it before, and we'll say it again... You never go 
broke booking profits.  Our FLR short has been working very well 
since we implemented the trade on July 2nd.  Because of the time 
duration of the trade, and the implications of trading on the 
bottom of the channel, we had decided to "challenge" this trade 
with a lower stop.  Today, our stop at $33.15 was triggered, 
forcing us to cover our entire position.  We are very pleased to 
report a 7.8% gain in this trade in only 16 days.  With no new 
news, the bounce was purely a technical rebound.  If FLR were to 
recover some its lost ground in potential short covering, we will 
consider this trade again as another short candidate.  Traders 
who are still short FLR could implement a tight stop in order to 
hang onto un-booked profits.    

Picked on July 3rd at $35.94
Change since picked:   +2.79
Earnings Date 07/30/02 (confirmed)




---

XL Capital - XL - close: 65.50 change: -9.00 stop: 78.16

Wow!  There's nothing quite like being short a stock when the 
company comes out with bad news.  Such was the case this morning 
with XL, when the company announced it was increasing reserves by 
$200M for losses related to the 9/11 attacks.  They also said 
they expect to lose $120M due to telecom investments.  As could 
be expected, XL gapped sharply lower on the news.  In last 
night's update we had set an official exit price at $70.51.  
Thus, Our play was closed at the opening trade of $66.00 for a 
gain of $14.89, or 18.4%.

Although there's little to stop XL from falling to its September 
low at $61.50, we would not be looking to chase the stock lower - 
It's looking awfully oversold after today's 12% decline.  Traders 
still short should now be challenging XL with a very tight stop, 
as it would be a shame to see those wonderful gains go up in 
smoke!  After all, there are plenty of other possible bearish 
trades in the insurance sector: Check out HIG, ACE, MET, and AIG, 
just to name a few.

Picked on July 3rd at $80.89
Gain since picked:    +14.89
Earnings Date       04/29/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Boyd Gaming Corp - BYD - close: 14.11 change: -1.45 stop: 16.01

Company Description:
Headquartered in Las Vegas, Boyd Gaming Corporation (NYSE:BYD) is 
a leading diversified owner and operator of 12 gaming 
entertainment properties located in Nevada, Mississippi, 
Illinois, Indiana and Louisiana. Boyd Gaming is also developing 
"The Borgata", a $1 billion entertainment destination resort in 
Atlantic City, through a joint venture with MGM MIRAGE. 
(Source: company press release)


Why We Like It:
Boyd Gaming Corporation reported earnings yesterday, beating 
estimates of 25 cents per share, stating 29 cents per share.  
However, given a 9% drop in the stock today, the market has 
rejected the earnings announcement.  This was a classic case of 
buy the rumor, sell the news.  Even though BYD had decent 
earnings, we believe that this stock is suffering from overall 
sector weakness.  Other stocks in the sector that look weak are: 
ISLE, ILX, HET, ASCA, MBG, and STN.  Most recently, the stock 
made a double top on the daily chart, producing a lower high.  
Further, Stochastics have fallen below the upper line, indicating 
temporarily overbought conditions.  On the sixty-minute chart, 
BYD, had support in the $14.70 area, which it broke today.  Given 
the sharp reaction to the earnings news, we feel that BYD looks 
like a good short at these levels.  If all things work out as 
planned, we could see $10.50 with in a matter of days; our target 
at $10.50 is slightly above the 200-Day MA.  We are putting our 
stop just above the most recent high, at 16.05.  If our stop is 
breached we will close this play immediately, as the stock could 
see a potential breakout.  We anticipate support in the $12.40 to 
13.25 area, where our trade will have to fight congestion to 
break down.  If our trade begins to move in our direction, we 
will move our stop down with it, in order to protect any possible 
profits.  We would like to point out that this is a thinner 
stock, which trades with less volume than our normal plays.  
Because of this, we are listing this play in the High Risk/High 
Reward section.  We would encourage traders to keep a close eye 
on this play, as a relatively low amount of volume could produce 
erratic moves.  More conservative traders may want to wait for 
BYD to trade under or even close under its 50-dma currently at 
$14.00.  It might be a good idea to pre-set stops with brokers to 
ensure that the trade gives no surprises.    

Annotated Chart of: Boyd Gaming Corp, Daily.


 

Picked on July at      $14.11
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        07/17/02 (confirmed)
 

 

--- 

Pinnacle Entertainment - PNK - cls: 9.20 chg: -0.70 stop: 10.01

Company Description:
Pinnacle Entertainment owns and operates seven casinos (four with 
hotels) in Nevada, Mississippi, Louisiana, Indiana and Argentina, 
and receives lease income from two card club casinos, both in the 
Los Angeles metropolitan area. The Company is developing a casino 
resort in Lake Charles, Louisiana.
(Source: company press release)


Why We Like It:
After recently forming a lower high at resistance near the $11 
mark, Pinnacle Entertainment looks as if it could attempt to test 
its 200-Day MA.  We are expecting that weakness in the gaming 
sector will help with a decline in our stock's price.  If the 
stock does fall, we could potentially see our price target of 
$8.00 at the 200-Day MA.  Stochastics (14,1,3) confirm selling 
pressure after recently falling below the lower line, triggering 
out entry on today's close.  The MACD has also crossed underneath 
the 0 line, with the histogram giving us further affirmation of 
potential selling.  Because this stock trades relatively thin, we 
are urging discretion with loose stops.  A cautious trader could 
actually raise their profit target by a dime to $8.10; ensuring 
that their order will be executed if the stock trades on the 
offer at $8.00.  We are putting a relatively tight stop on this 
trade at $10.01, where we will close the entire position if our 
stop is reached.  In a sense, we are immediately challenging the 
weakness of this stock by not giving our trade much room to 
breathe.  The trade will have to battle a slight bit of 
congestion at $9.00, though with an increase in volume, it 
shouldn't have much trouble breaking this level.  We would again 
like to urge caution in trading thinner, low volume stocks such 
as this one.  To avoid any unnecessary surprises, we suggest that 
traders decide what their own individual stop loss is and 
strictly adhered to it.  If the trades succeeds in meeting our 
goals, we could see a 13% return on this trade.  Understanding 
our risk, with stop at $10.01, we stand to lose 8.8% if the trade 
moves against us.  Because this is a higher risk, low volume 
trade, we have put it in our High Risk, High Reward section.   

Annotated Chart of: Pinnacle Entertainment, Daily.




Picked on July      at  $9.20
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/30/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  -------------------- 

Jo-ann Stores - JAS.A - close: 23.30 change: -0.19 stop: 26.13

Because we didn't want to short JAS.A until it was trading at 
relative lows, we wrote this play with a trigger at $23.17.  This 
level was reached on Thursday when shares dipped in early-morning 
trading.  The stock never really had a chance to post a gain 
today with the RLX.X retail index declining by another 1.6%.  A 
break below the near-term low of 273.38 would be bearish for the 
entire sector, and likely create more selling pressure in shares 
of JAS.A.  New short positions can be gauged on a move below 
today's low of $22.50.  Although our stop is currently set at 
$26.13, we'll probably tighten it to just above the 50-dma 
(25.01) if shares suffer another day of losses.  We would also 
watch for any rally back to the $25 level or the 50-dma.  A 
failed rally at resistance would be a great lower-risk entry 
point to go short.  

Picked on July 18th at $23.17
Change since picked:    -0.13
Earnings Date        08/20/02 (confirmed)
 



---

NPS Pharmaceuticals - NPSP - cls: 19.02 chg: +0.01 stop: 20.09

The biotech index (BTK.X) pulled back by nearly 5% on Thursday, 
giving back the lion's share of the previous session's gains.  
This is an interesting technical development, because the index 
had briefly popped above its descending regression channel.  
Today's reversal could portend another downward leg for the BTK.  
Pressuring the sector was a Merrill Lynch downgrade of biotech 
behemoth BGEN.

NPSP remained relatively strong today but was unable to move over 
heavy resistance.  During the past three sessions, intraday 
rallies in NPSP have been thwarted by the $20.00 level.  These 
failed rallies are an encouraging development for this play.  
We'd expect frustrated bulls to throw in the towel if the BTK.X 
continues to fall.  NPSP continues to look extremely top heavy 
and potentially prone to a selloff.  Technically, we'll be 
watching for the daily stochastics (5,3,3) to release from the 
overbought region and begin to drop.  The previous three times 
this occurred (in late-March, mid-April, and mid-June), the 
Stochastics drop preceded steep declines in the stock.  Despite 
all the short-term overbought conditions we will urge some 
caution.  While we are looking at NPSP with bear-tinted glasses 
the recent consolidation sideways under $20 has been showing 
higher lows and that's typically a bullish development.  More 
conservative traders (who probably shouldn't be playing our high-
risk plays or shorting biotechs to begin with) might want to wait 
for NPSP to trade under its 50-dma at 18.20.

Picked on July 16th at $18.70 
Change since picked:    -0.32
Earnings Date        07/23/02 (unconfirmed)
 





==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
------------------- 

Landstar Sets 2-for-1 Stock Split

Prior to the opening bell this morning, Landstar System, Inc. 
(NASDAQ: LSTR) announced that its Board of Directors had declared 
a 2-for-1 stock split.

The additional shares will be distributed on or about August 12, 
2002 to shareholders of record on August 2, 2002.

This marks the first split for LSTR since it began trading in 
1993.  In sharp contrast to the Dow Transports, LSTR performed 
strongly throughout the second quarter of 2002 and reached an all-
time high of $110.30 in June. The stock has since fallen back 
below the psychologically important $100 level.

Shares closed at $95.45 on Thursday.  For a current quote, click here:

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=LSTR

About the company
Landstar System, Inc. is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida. 
The Landstar carrier group comprised of Landstar Gemini, Inc., 
Landstar Inway, Inc., Landstar Ligon, Inc. and Landstar Ranger, 
Inc. delivers excellence in complete over-the-road transportation 
services. (source: company press release)

--- 

Tractor Supply Harvests 2-for-1 Stock Split

After the market closed today, Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ: 
TSCO) announced that its Board of Directors had authorized a 2-
for-1 stock split.

The split will be distributed on August 19, 2002 to shareholders 
of record on August 2, 2002.

This will be the first split for TSCO since it began trading in 
1994.  Today's announcement follows an impressive year-long run 
that saw shares rise from the $15 level to an all-time high of 
$73.25.  The stock has recently pulled back to intermediate-term 
support at $55.  

Shares closed at $58.08 on Thursday.  For a current quote, click here:

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=TSCO

About the company
Tractor Supply Company operates 426 stores in 30 states, focused 
on supplying the lifestyle needs of recreational farmers and 
ranchers. The Company also serves the maintenance needs of those 
who enjoy the rural lifestyle, as well as, tradesmen and small 
businesses. Stores are located in towns outlying to major 
metropolitan markets and in rural communities. (source: company 
press release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AHO     Koninklijke Ahold N.V.     17.44     +0.74
SID     Companhia Siderurgica      19.65     +1.15
RACN    Racing Champions           16.71     +0.51

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

.. none ..

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

GS      Goldman Sachs              75.60     +1.12
RTRSY   Reuters Group              31.85     +2.00
CLS     Celestica Inc              22.00     +3.31
ARB     Arbitron Inc               32.45     +1.50


------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

LLY     Eli Lilly & Co             48.54     -2.36
WB      Wachovia Corp              32.36     -2.16
KFT     Kraft Foods Inc            35.13     -2.81
NVS     Novartis Ag Ads            36.45     -1.68
AIG     American Intl Group        57.23     -3.67
BAX     Baxter Intl Inc            32.00     -11.41
ADP     Automatic Data Processing  31.60     -9.75
GIS     General Mills Inc          40.23     -2.57
AFL     Aflac inc                  26.65     -1.34
SLM     SLM Corp                   84.48     -1.57
PNC     PNC Financial              39.69     -6.91
PGR     Progressive Corp           47.50     -2.25
MEL     Mellon Financial           25.20     -1.28
PAYX    Paychex Inc                24.50     -3.72
XL      XL Capital Ltd             65.50     -9.00
KEY     Keycorp                    22.60     -1.60
CMA     Comerica Inc               54.04     -3.43
SNV     Synovus Financial Corp     22.79     -1.46
CLX     Clorox                     33.65     -1.35
ACE     Ace Ltd                    25.40     -2.62
SPC     Saint Paul Companies       27.78     -1.46
DST     DST Systems                36.81     -2.39
TSG     Sabre Holdings Corp        24.45     -4.05
PRE     Partnerre Ltd              41.65     -3.35
AFC     Allmerica Financial Corp   32.63     -2.48




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