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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 07/22/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Monday 07-22-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Choppy Trading, Markets Still Fading.
Watch List:       Tanking Market, Tons Of Opportunities
Play of the Day:  Chips Sell...But Who's Buying?


******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
07-22-2002               High    Low     Volume Advance/Decl
DJIA     7784.58 -234.68 8103.86 7717.29 2517 mln   617/2553
NASDAQ   1282.65 -36.50  1332.10 1272.46 1737 mln  1067/2351
S&P 100   407.88 -15.22   426.21  405.47   totals  1684/4902
S&P 500   819.85 -27.90   854.13  813.26
RUS 2000  379.65 - 6.55   389.11  374.69
DJ TRANS 2241.50 -90.68  2357.78 2215.89
VIX        48.23 + 4.78    49.67  42.81
VIXN       62.58 + 1.41    63.61  62.58 
Put/Call Ratio 0.87
******************************************************************


===========
Market Wrap
===========

Choppy Trading, Markets Still Fading.

Overall, markets were fairly choppy in today's session, with the 
Dow losing -234.68 and the Nasdaq falling -36.50 to 1282.65.  
Opening only mildly down, the Dow continued to sell into the 
morning, though it did try to stage a comeback before slipping 
negative in the afternoon.  There were buyers early in the 
session, though it seemed as if they did not sense any real 
follow through, and thus, backed out of the market as quickly as 
they jumped in.  Overseas, markets were also lower, with the DAX 
down 3.3%, Japan's Nikkei falling 0.1%, and the FTSE dropping 
1.5%.  

Overall market breadth was negative with winners under-performing 
losers 1 to 3 on the NYSE, with 2.05 billion shares traded.  On 
the Nasdaq, decliners exceeded advancers 5 to 2, with 2.26 
billion shares exchanging hands.  

3M (NYSE:MMM) reported $1.36 per share, versus $1.34 expected 
from analysts.  Beating estimates MMM attributed part of the 
earnings increase to sales in Asia.  Unit volume for Asia, 
excluding Japan, was up 24.6%.  Looking forward, 3M said the 
company remains "cautious", with the economic landscape remaining 
uncertain.  The Dow component will cut 6,000 jobs.  

As anticipated, WorldCom (NASDAQ:WCOME) filed for bankruptcy 
yesterday afternoon.  Although WCOME is the number two long-
distance provider in the country, it is the number one largest 
bankruptcy in history.  Listing $107 Billion in assets, WCOME 
admitted accounting fraud, mentioning that it had incorrectly 
stated almost $4 billion in expenses.  With a limited amount of 
time for financial protection, the company has a slim chance to 
potentially emerge from bankruptcy intact.  WCOME currently has 
41 billion dollars in debt.  Topping the list of creditors left 
holding the bag is J.P. Morgan (NYSE:JPM) with 17.2 billion 
dollars in exposure.  WorldCom's immediate plan to rectify the 
situation is to achieve $2 billion in funding, which it says 
could keep the company alive long enough to erase 75 percent of 
its debt.  

Citigroup (NYSE:C) lost 11%, or -$3.96 today, falling to $32.04.  
The financial company seems to have severe exposure to Enron, and 
could be left holding substantial debt.  The Wall Street Journal 
reported that Enron (NasdaqBB:ENRNQ) and Citigroup had conspired 
together in a lending scheme, which converted borrowed money into 
revenue.  Also, Jack Grubman an analyst for Citigroup's Salomon 
Smith Barney is facing a slap on the wrist by the NASD for 
misleading research on the failed company: Winstar.  

BellSouth (NYSE:BLS) reported 53 cents per share, falling short 
of the 57 cents per share analysts had projected.  The company 
indicated negative future guidance, stating that 2002 earnings 
will not meet expectations.  The company blamed much of its 
revenue problems on a weakened telecom sector, currency losses,
and "special" charges.  

Sun Microsystems (NYSE:SUNW) also fell on the day after Merrill 
Lynch suggested that the company could still have downside risk.  

With no Economic news early in the week, traders have one less 
thing to worry about.  However, on Thursday we will see: Initial 
claims, Durable Orders, Employment Cost Index, Help-Wanted Index, 
new-Home Sales, and Existing Home Sales.   

Though not necessarily economic news, UBS Warburg reported their 
Index of Investor Optimism today.  The Index dropped to an all 
time low of 46, beating the September low of 51.  The survey for 
the index is conducted to 1,000 households with a minimum of 
$10,000.00 in investable assets.  Since last September, the index 
has had a range from 51 to 120.  The next release for the UBS 
Investor Optimism Index is August 26, 2002. 

The Volatility Index ($VIX.X) is a measure of volatility in the 
S&P 100 ($OEX.X).  This indicator is an inverse measure of the 
market it tracks.  Thus, when the VIX.X is at lows, the market is 
at highs, and when the VIX.X is at highs, the market it as lows.  
In the past, whenever the VIX.X was above 40, we soon witnessed a 
market bottom.  Last September when the market was at lows, the 
VIX.X stayed above 40 for several days.  On September 24th, 2001, 
the VIX.X hit 57.  Most recently, the VIX.X has been trading 
above 40 since July 11th, with a high of 49.67 today.  How high 
can it go?  Unfortunately any index can always make new high or 
low...  However, the VIX.X, could potentially top out sometime 
soon.  Of course, this doesn't mean that the VIX won't make a new 
high, pull back below 40, and then try to make another high.  

Chart of: Market Volatility Index, VIX.X.





A silver lining?  With the market recently falling in heavy 
selling, we would normally expect to see Silver and Gold escalate 
more than they have.  The precious metals markets HAVE increased 
over the last couple of years, but not like they had in bear 
markets earlier in the century.  While the Dow has been selling 
off over the last two weeks, the gold market has also been 
falling.  In fact, the high for the CBOE Gold Index (CBOE:GOX.X) 
was on June 4th, at 72.38.  The Index closed at 53.75 today, a 
25.74% decline from the near-term highs. 

Chart of: Gold and Silver Index, Daily.





So gold is stagnate to dropping, and the VIX.X is at highs.  We 
also know that there is money on the sidelines in bonds.  In 2001 
Bond Mutual Funds received 76 Billion dollars in inflows.  If the 
stock markets bottom out, this money could definitely return 
someday.  Even with the Dow falling -234.68 today, the U.S. 
Dollar is trying to hold its ground.  The greenback closed up 
+0.69 today at 104.75.  This doesn't mean that money from gold is 
going behind the dollar, though it is a good sign to see. The 
dollar attempting to hold support; potentially leading the 
markets higher in the days to come.  In the best interest of 
foreign countries, nations such as Japan will try and keep the 
dollar strong.  With a weaker dollar, it becomes more expensive 
for foreign countries to export their goods to America.   This 
forces foreign countries to raise their prices, losing consumers 
to cheaper American goods. Thus, we see a slight bit of support 
for our own currency and country through other nations wishing to 
profit from our consumers.      

Weekly Chart of the U.S. Dollar




Evaluating the overall situation, today's -235 point down day 
could be construed as good, for we are now 235 points potentially 
closer to a bottom.  These are oversold markets, extended far 
into bear territory. The last few years will go down in the 
history books of one of the worst corrections ever.  We are 
standing right smack dab in the middle of it!  We are making 
history.  One thing that we can be sure of, is that things will 
eventually get better.  It's not out of the question to see new 
lows in the indexes...  However, all companies are created to 
make money, and make money in the future, they will.  We are in 
the bottoming phase of the bear.  It doesn't hurt to still remain 
bearish, as it might very well continue to get ugly.  We could 
see 7500 in the Dow.  Though keep in mind; the last two and a 
half years are behind us.  We look back and realize that we have 
20/20 hindsight, and thus, we make new glasses so we can see 
better in the future.  Our highflying plane of market prosperity 
has recently been lost in bad weather.  Our engines are fading, 
and we cannot tell whether we will find land or crash in the 
ocean.  We remembered our parachutes though, and we've read all 
the books about flying in bad economics and markets.  Our crew is 
trying to figure out the indicators as we speak.  The only thing 
that is working is the altimeter, and we see it reading new 
lows...  We only know this because we are still here.  We are 
still in the cockpit attempting to land this wounded plane.  
Which, we will.
Once on the ground, we will repair the damage, scribble in our 
logbooks, and take off again.  After all, we will have learned 
from the previous experience, because we survived. 
 
Hang in there!

Mark Whistler
Editor@PremierInvestor.net


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Applied Materials - AMAT - close: 16.83 change: +0.03

WHAT TO WATCH: Semiconductor bulls who were resting their hopes 
(and horns) on tonight's earnings report from NVLS were sorely 
disappointed.  The company met analyst expectations for the 
second quarter but gave lower than expected targets for Q3.  The 
news had most chip stocks were trading lower in after-hours, 
including AMAT.  Shares finished Monday's session with a slight 
gain, most likely due to the company's analyst conference.  
Investors may have been cheered by the announcement of a new 
manufacturing product, but what good is that new product if 
there's no demand for it?  Technically, AMAT is in danger of 
falling below support in the $16.50 region.  Aggressive traders 
could target bearish positions on a move under the relative low 
of $16.33.  AMAT was already trading slightly below this level in 
after-hours.  The MACD is hinting at a bearish crossover, leading 
us to believe the stock could eventually retest its September low 
of $13.29.  Granted, that would represent a severe decline... 
Though not entirely out of the question, given the chip sector's 
weakness.  The semiconductor index (SOX.X) is in danger of 
breaking critical support near 345, which corresponds to the 
September lows.  A violation of this support could send the index 
to the 300 level in a matter of days.




---  

Crown Cork Seal - CCK - close: 5.76 change: -0.35

WHAT TO WATCH: CCK has fallen to its 200-dma.  Although this 
moving average provided support during the stock's early-July 
selloff, the oscillators suggest that the bulls won't be so lucky 
this time: The daily stochastics (5,3,3) are falling towards the 
oversold region and the MACD looks like it will soon produce a 
bearish crossover.  The most recent test of the 200-dma was not 
accompanied by a bearish MACD.  Entries can be evaluated if CCK 
falls below today's low ($5.71), however, be aware of possible 
support at $5.40 and $5.00.  Of course, if the broader market 
continues its losing ways, we wouldn't expect the bulls to put up 
much of a fight at these levels.




---

drugstore.com - DSCM - close: 2.94 change: +0.31

WHAT TO WATCH: It goes without saying that going long on a dot-
com requires a very aggressive trading strategy - particularly a 
dot-com that's trading in the single digits.  However, those who 
are willing to take that risk could be rewarded with some 
substantial upside movement.  DSCM is currently resting below 
solid resistance at $3.00.  A move above this level could launch 
shares to the $3.50-$4.00 region in short order.  The catalyst 
for such a breakout could be provided by the company's Wednesday 
morning earnings report.  Note that we wouldn't recommend taking 
any positions ahead of this announcement.  The best approach 
would be to wait for the dust to settle on Wednesday and then 
target a move (or close) above $3.00.




---

Datascope Corp. - DSCP - close: 22.88 change: -1.17

WHAT TO WATCH: Scope it out!  DSCP has fallen to multi-year lows 
and has absolutely no historical support to prevent it from 
testing the $20 level.  We strongly considered adding DSCP as a 
short play, but were dissuaded by the relatively weak average 
volume of about 52K shares/day.  Traders willing to deal with the 
possible volatility and large spreads normally associated with 
lower-volume stocks could target short positions on a move under 
today's low of $22.64.  Point-and-figure fans will be interested 
to know that DSCP is currently signaling a triple-bottom sell 
signal.




---

Oracle Corp. - ORCL - close: 9.23 change: -0.49

WHAT TO WATCH: We featured ORCL on the most recent watch list as 
a possible long play, and we still think it's well-positioned to 
bounce when the NASDAQ finally halts its decline.  The stock is 
resting on the bottom of its ascending channel and has likely 
support at the 50-dma ($8.93).  A bounce from this moving average 
could provide aggressive traders with a possible entry point.  
Traders, however, need to be aware that the MACD and daily 
stochastic oscillators are hinting at more selling in the near 
future.


 

--- 

SafeNet Inc - SFNT - close: 17.35 change: +1.55

WHAT TO WATCH: Most impressive!  SFNT has just broken above solid 
resistance at $16.00 on what appeared to be a delayed reaction to 
the company's July 18th earnings report.  The strong volume 
behind this breakout and lack of near-term resistance indicates 
that shares could move to the $18-80 region within the next few 
sessions.  Although we'd be hesitant to chase the stock after 
today's 9.8% gain, a pullback to the $16.50 area could provide an 
action point for bullish positions.   Note that SFNT trades on an 
average volume of only 51K shares/day.


 

--- 

Winnebago Inc. - WGO - close: 33.60 change: -2.25

WHAT TO WATCH: Mirroring the action in its competitor THO 
(currently featured on our Play List), WGO has suffered heavy 
selling over the past week.  Shares cruised lower today by 6.2%, 
closing at levels not seen since December.  The strong volume 
behind today's decline indicates the bears won't be letting up 
any time soon.  Aggressive traders can evaluate entries on a move 
below today's low of $32.77.  If this level fails, there's little 
to prevent a test of previous resistance/psychological support at 
$30.00.





=========================
Play-of-the-Day ( New Net Bulls BEARISH play)
=========================

Micron Tech. - MU - close: 20.50 change: -1.78 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Micron Technology, Inc., and its subsidiaries manufacture and 
market DRAMs, very fast SRAMs, Flash Memory, other semiconductor 
components, and memory modules.. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
"It was a reasonable quarter, but there is a long way to go 
before I would classify this as a recovery."  That was Novellus 
CEO Rick Hill on Monday night, commenting on the outlook for his 
company.  If there's one thing investors don't want to hear, it's 
that there is a long road to recovery in the chip sector.  While 
bulls like to cling to the notion that the larger semiconductor 
stocks are currently undervalued, comments like these simply 
reinforce the cold reality of the situation: There just aren't 
many signs of an improvement in IT spending on the horizon.  

The stock price of MU seems to reflect a similar lack of demand.  
Shares of this memory chip producer have fallen more than 50% 
from their March highs.  A recent rally to the $25 level proved 
to be a painful bull trap.  The stock is now in danger of falling 
below the $20 level and retesting its June low of $16.00.  The 
MACD is beginning to rollover from the baseline, which indicates 
such a decline could be in the cards.  We're also gaming a 
complete breakdown in the SOX.X semiconductor index.  On Monday 
it closed at 357, safely above support near 345.  However, the 
NVLS news will probably weigh heavily on the group.  A violation 
of this support would be extremely bearish for the chip sector.  
Not only did the 345 area halt the September decline, but it's 
also historical support dating back to 1999.  If this level fails 
we'd expect the SOX.X to rapidly fall to the 300 region.

Of course, we're adding this short play against a backdrop of 
overwhelming bearishness in the oversold broader market.  So 
bearish, in fact, that a colossal short-covering rally could be 
just around the corner.  You know...It's always darkest before 
dawn.  For this reason, we're going to use a tight stop of $21.01 
if the play is triggered.  We won't enter the play until MU 
trades below $20.00.  This could happen quickly tomorrow morning, 
considering that most chip stocks were trading lower in after-
hours.  However, note that we WILL NOT go short if the stock 
opens below $19.50.  If things work out as hoped, MU will stage a 
rapid decline to our profit target of $16.06.

Picked on July xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date        08/24/02 (unconfirmed)
 






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only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
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in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Monday 07-22-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/g22b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Plays:     MU
  Stop Adjustments:      INVN (bearish)
  Triggered Plays:       MOT  (bearish)

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Stop Adjustments:      THO, FRK, BLL, LOW (bearish)
  Closed Bearish Plays:  SAH

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     DCTM, ISSX
  Stop Adjustments:      JAS.A, BYD, PNK (bearish)
  Closed Bearish Plays:  NPSP

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Micron Tech. - MU - close: 20.50 change: -1.78 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Micron Technology, Inc., and its subsidiaries manufacture and 
market DRAMs, very fast SRAMs, Flash Memory, other semiconductor 
components, and memory modules.. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
"It was a reasonable quarter, but there is a long way to go 
before I would classify this as a recovery."  That was Novellus 
CEO Rick Hill on Monday night, commenting on the outlook for his 
company.  If there's one thing investors don't want to hear, it's 
that there is a long road to recovery in the chip sector.  While 
bulls like to cling to the notion that the larger semiconductor 
stocks are currently undervalued, comments like these simply 
reinforce the cold reality of the situation: There just aren't 
many signs of an improvement in IT spending on the horizon.  

The stock price of MU seems to reflect a similar lack of demand.  
Shares of this memory chip producer have fallen more than 50% 
from their March highs.  A recent rally to the $25 level proved 
to be a painful bull trap.  The stock is now in danger of falling 
below the $20 level and retesting its June low of $16.00.  The 
MACD is beginning to rollover from the baseline, which indicates 
such a decline could be in the cards.  We're also gaming a 
complete breakdown in the SOX.X semiconductor index.  On Monday 
it closed at 357, safely above support near 345.  However, the 
NVLS news will probably weigh heavily on the group.  A violation 
of this support would be extremely bearish for the chip sector.  
Not only did the 345 area halt the September decline, but it's 
also historical support dating back to 1999.  If this level fails 
we'd expect the SOX.X to rapidly fall to the 300 region.

Of course, we're adding this short play against a backdrop of 
overwhelming bearishness in the oversold broader market.  So 
bearish, in fact, that a colossal short-covering rally could be 
just around the corner.  You know...It's always darkest before 
dawn.  For this reason, we're going to use a tight stop of $21.01 
if the play is triggered.  We won't enter the play until MU 
trades below $20.00.  This could happen quickly tomorrow morning, 
considering that most chip stocks were trading lower in after-
hours.  However, note that we WILL NOT go short if the stock 
opens below $19.50.  If things work out as hoped, MU will stage a 
rapid decline to our profit target of $16.06.

Picked on July xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date        08/24/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
NB Play Updates
===============  

Stop Adjustments
----------------

InVision - INVN - close: 24.57 change: -0.64 stop: 25.16 *new*

With INVN announcing earnings after the bell on Tuesday, we're 
challenging the stock with a very tight stop-loss of $25.16, just 
above today's shelf of intraday resistance.  If we're not stopped 
out, we'll close this play as of the final trade on Tuesday.  
Also note that we're bumping our official exit target up to 
$22.85, two cents above the 50-dma.




Triggered Play
--------------

Motorola - MOT - close: 14.86 change: -0.14 stop: 15.51

Triggered today, MOT opened at $14.66, which is where we will 
track our short position.  Trading briefly sideways, the stock 
could not hold up with the broader market continuing to sell off.  
MOT quickly declined to a low of $13.83, falling from the 
descending resistance, which we based our trade on.  Although we 
do not expect MOT to hit our profit target of $12.00 within the 
day, we are encouraged by weakness displayed this morning.  Our 
stop is located at $15.51, which would be a 5.7% loss if 
triggered.        

Picked on July 22nd at $14.66
Gain since picked:      +0.54
Earnings Date        07/17/02 (confirmed)
 




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============  

Stop Adjustments
----------------

Thor Industries - THO - cls: 26.80 chg: -1.00 stop: 28.01*new*

THO approached our profit target of $25.51 on Tuesday but managed 
a bounce from the $26 level.  Although we expect shares to 
eventually reach our target, we're going to attempt to minimize 
our risk and protect a hefty profit by lowering our stop to 
$28.01.  This will force THO to trade above the afternoon high.  
More aggressive traders could use a stop at $28.26, just above 
today's high.




---

Florida Rock - FRK - close: 30.57 change: -1.76 stop: 31.06 *new*

Shares of FRK dropped another 5.4% and hit a new multi-month low.  
At this point we fully expect our profit target of $30.06 to be 
met.  If this doesn't occur, our new stop at $31.06 should still 
protect a 5.8% gain.


 

---

Ball Corp - BLL - close: 34.08 change: -1.52 stop: 35.51 *new*

The declining broader market helped to drag BLL to new multi-
month lows on Tuesday.  Given the 4.2% loss, we think it's 
prudent at this time to tighten our stop loss.  By moving our 
stop to $35.51 (just above today's afternoon high) we hope to 
protect a gain of more than 5%.  We're also setting an official 
profit target at $32.51.  This play will be closed if BLL trades 
at or below that level.  More aggressive traders could be 
targeting a decline to the $30 region.


 

--- 

Lowes Co. - LOW - close: 34.92 change: -1.11 stop: 37.74 *new*

With LOW hitting its November lows today, the stock looks well 
positioned for a further decline.  Given the recent sell-off, 
we're going to attempt to eliminate our upside risk by moving our 
stop to $37.85, our original entry price.  Traders looking to 
protect a gain could use a stop just above today's high of 
$36.35.


 


===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Sonic Automotive - SAH - cls: 19.45 chg: -1.80 stop: 22.15

Continued weakness in the broader market weighed heavily on SAH 
this morning.  Shares broke through near-term support at $21.00 
and quickly reached our exit target at $20.66.  Our play was 
closed for a gain of 9.1%.  SAH then proceeded to cut through 
psychological support at $20.00 like a hot knife through butter, 
ultimately finishing with an 8.4% loss.  Although the close under 
$20.00 is a very bearish sign, traders still short SAH should be 
aware that both the MACD and daily stochastics are pinned at the 
oversold extreme.  This indicates that a sharp short-covering 
rally could emerge at any time.  SAH also has possible support at 
$18.00, near the bottom of its descending regression channel.

Picked on July 10th at $22.73
Gain since picked:      +2.07
Earnings Date        07/30/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  ----------------- 

Documentum Corp- DCTM - close: 14.00 change: +1.10 stop: 13.17

Company Description:
Documentum is the industry's leading enterprise content 
management provider, automating the production, exchange and 
personalization of all types of content, making it easier for the 
Global 2000 to gain competitive advantage by connecting 
employees, business partners and customers, worldwide. Built on 
an Internet-scale, XML-enabled and standards-compliant platform, 
Documentum products manage Web content, power portals, enable 
collaborative commerce, and solve regulatory content challenges. 
Over 300 partners across all major industries, including high 
tech, pharmaceutical, healthcare, consulting services, 
government, manufacturing, financial services, automotive, 
retail, and consumer goods, build and implement specialized 
applications using Documentum's content management 
infrastructure.

Why we like it:
Recently reporting earnings on July 18th, 2002, DCTM reported a 
narrower than expected loss.  Further, the company reported a 
raised outlook for the future year.  The company's plan to expand 
into different geographical regions and creating industry 
specific products has helped the company gain market share from 
competitors.  The company reported a net loss of $500,000, versus 
a net loss of $14.1 million a share one year ago.  The narrowed 
loss was due to a gain of 78 new customers.  

Viewing the Daily chart of Documentum, we quickly see why this is 
a High Risk/High Reward play.  Since the most recent low on June 
26th, the company has gained 48.8%; a move from $8.67 to $12.90.  
Whoa, this is risky.  However, the chart also shows impressive 
relative strength compared to the rest of the market, and could 
be a good candidate if the broader market bounces.  We like that 
DCTM has closed strongly above the 50-Day MA on the daily, which 
could get the attention of institutional investors.  The trade is 
also risky, as the Stochastics are above the upper line.  This is 
good and bad.  It confirms buying interest, but at the same time, 
makes us weary of being too overbought.  Our initial target on 
this play is just below the 200-Day MA at $17.00.  We are 
entering this trade on tomorrow mornings open, assuming it does 
not gap more than 50 cents in either direction.  We would like to 
see the stock open slightly higher, then close positive on the 
day.  Because of the risky nature of this play, we are putting 
very tight stop on this trade.  Our stop is at $13.17, where we 
WILL close the entire play without hesitation.  Although the 
stock is strong, we have no desire to get stuck in a loser in the 
middle of this bear market.  

Chart of: DCTM, Daily.


 

      
Picked on July      at $xx.xx (see text)
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        07/18/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

Internet Security Sys - ISSX - cls: 14.01 chg: +0.73 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Founded in 1994, Internet Security Systems is a pioneer and world 
leader in software and services that protect critical information 
assets from an ever-changing spectrum of threats and misuse. 
Internet Security Systems is the trusted security provider for 
more than 9,000 corporate customers including 49 of the Fortune 
50, the top 10 largest U.S. securities firms, 10 of the world's 
largest telecommunications companies and major agencies and 
departments within U.S. local, state and federal governments 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We understand if you're scratching your head right now.  It 
definitely seems a little counterintuitive to be thinking about a 
bullish software play.  Industry behemoth MSFT, previously a 
bastion of strength, gave up the ghost today and sold off by more 
than 6.5%.  The stock has fallen under its September lows and 
could be due for a retest of its 2000 lows, when shares were 
hammered on concerns of antitrust litigation.  The GSO.X software 
index is trading at all-time lows and has not shown any signs of 
finding support.  So what's the deal with adding ISSX as a long 
play?

Simply put, we're very impressed with the relative strength that 
the stock has displayed.  ISSX has traced a series of higher lows 
in recent weeks and recently broke above bearish resistance on 
the point-and-figure chart.  The fact that the stock has 
accomplished this feat amid such a negative environment suggests 
to us that when the tech sector finally stages a reversal, ISSX 
will lead the way.  Bulls can also be encouraged by the recent 
rising volume and double-top p-n-f breakout.  Shares tacked on 
5.4% today after competitor CHKP announced well-received Q2 
earnings.  ISSX wasn't able to muster a close over its 50-dma at 
$14.81, but it may just be a matter of time until that level is 
eclipsed.  Considering that psychological resistance lies just 
over the 50-dma, we won't enter this play until ISSX trades at or 
above $15.01.  If triggered, our initial stop will be set at 
$13.64, just below Monday's intraday support.  More cautious 
traders could snug their stops under $14.00.  We're going to 
target a move to the $17.00 area, which should be well within the 
realm of possibility if a short-covering rally takes hold in the 
tech sector.

Picked on July xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        07/18/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
HR Play Updates
===============  

Stop Adjustments
----------------

Jo-Ann Stores - JAS.A - cls: 19.15 chg: -3.45 stop: 20.06 *new*

JAS.A was hammered for a 15.2% loss today after the bears mauled 
the stock in the last hour of trading.  We weren't able to track 
down any news to explain the sell-off.  The buyers may have 
simply thrown in the towel after support at the $21 level was 
breached.  In any case, we're very pleased with this development 
and would like to protect some of these gains.  To that end, 
we're tightening our stop to $20.06, which will force JAS.A to 
trade above psychological resistance at $20.00.




--- 

Boyd Gaming - BYD - close: 13.20 change: -0.49 stop: 14.76 *new*

BYD hit a new relative low today, despite seemingly positive news 
of a "buy" recommendation from Thomas Weisel.  Now that our 
hypothetical trade is profitable, we're going to move our stop 
down to $14.76.  More cautious traders could use a stop just 
above the $14.00 level.  The rollover in the MACD and the 
plummeting daily stochastics lead us to believe that BYD will 
continue lower on Tuesday.  Aggressive traders could consider new 
entries on a break below $13.00.


 

--- 

Pinnacle Ent. - PNK - close: 8.76 change: -0.37 stop: 9.31 *new*

Thomas Weisel initiated coverage on BYD with a "buy" 
recommendation today.  That seemed to matter little to the 
sellers who hit the stock for a 4% loss.  Although we expect the 
bearish momentum to carry over into Tuesday's session, our new 
stop at $9.31 should limit our upside risk to 11 cents in the 
event PNK manages a bounce.





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

NPS Pharma. - NPSP - cls: 17.44 chg: -0.22 stop: 19.04

NPSP tagged a new relative low today, but not before briefly 
spiking above our stop in early-morning trading.  Our play was 
closed for a loss of 34 cents when the stock reached $19.04.  
Although NPSP was relatively strong versus the BTK.X biotech 
index, the oscillators continue to hint at more selling; the MACD 
is leveling out near the baseline and daily stochastics are 
falling towards the oversold region.  Today's close under the 50-
dma ($17.75) also bolsters the bears' cause.  However, 
considering that NPSP announces earnings tomorrow afternoon, we 
would not advise holding any positions at this time.

Picked on July 16th at $18.70
Change since picked:    -0.34
Earnings Date        07/23/02 (confirmed)





==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

..none..     

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

DCTM    Documentum Inc             14.00     +1.10
NHI     National Health Investor   14.58     +1.13
VIRL    Virage Logic Corp          10.89     +1.58
SFNT    Safenet Inc                17.35     +1.55

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

FNFG    First Niagara Fincl.       29.84     +2.54

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

XOM     ExxonMobil                 30.27     -2.13
WMT     Wal-Mart Stores            44.60     -1.90
C       Citigroup                  32.04     -3.96
TOT     Total Fina Elf Sa          63.65     -3.60
SNE     Sony Corp                  44.97     -1.33
SC      Shell Transport & Trading  35.30     -2.46
SBC     SBC Communications         23.96     -2.72
AVE     Aventis                    58.01     -3.29
RD      Royal Dutch                40.90     -1.10
MSFT    Microsoft Corp             46.31     -3.25
JPM     J.P. Morgan Chase          24.52     -1.58
CVX     ChevronTexaco              69.52     -4.98
BP      BP Plc                     39.69     -2.91
BLS     BellSouth Corp             22.61     -5.00
VZ      Verizon Communications     28.65     -3.85
UNH     UnitedHealth Group Inc     82.44     -5.76
CSR     Credit Suisse Group        23.00     -1.64
AA      Alcoa Inc                  24.85     -2.15
THC     Tenet Healthcare           41.44     -4.26
KSS     Kohl's Corp                56.73     -2.83
HI      Household Intl. Inc        38.84     -1.88
FDX     Fedex Corp                 46.00     -3.21
LEH     Lehman Brothers            52.50     -1.97
AT      Alltel Corp                38.78     -3.45
APC     Anadarko Petroleum         39.29     -2.27
NVO     Novo Nordisk               24.50     -3.84
XL      XL Capital Ltd             64.67     -2.33
AEP     American Electric Power    26.02     -2.28
MRO     Marathon Oil Group         21.57     -1.23
HRB     H&R Block                  40.33     -1.80
APA     Apache Corp                46.67     -2.76
SSP     E.W. Scripps Co            70.86     -2.87
DVN     Devon Energy Corp          37.34     -2.79
AET     Aetna Inc                  39.46     -3.20
DGX     Quest Diagnostic           59.41     -3.58
KMG     Kerr-Mcgee Corp            41.61     -2.45
TMK     Torchmark Corp             31.00     -1.88
WTW     Weight-Watchers Intl. Inc  38.20     -3.05
WHR     Whirlpool Corp             51.03     -2.63
EFX     Equifax Inc                20.18     -1.80
NCR     NCR Corp                   29.14     -1.93
FAST    Fastenal Company           33.86     -2.91
DO      Diamond Offshore Drilling  22.01     -1.29
CTX     Centex Corp                42.94     -2.81
CAM     Cooper Cameron Corp        39.34     -3.00
PCP     Precision Castparts        24.17     -1.11
WGO     Winnebago Industries       33.60     -2.25
DSCP    Datascope Corp             22.89     -1.16
MWRK    Mothers Work Inc           27.38     -4.40

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

USM     U.S. Cellular Corp         24.90     -2.40




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