PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 07-29-2002 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/g29b_1.asp ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: News of Stock Buybacks and Dollar's Strength Helps Lift Stocks Watch List: APA, BRCM, MTG, ROST, SNPS, VRSN Play of the Day: A Textbook Definition of Relative Weakness ****************************************************************** MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ****************************************************************** 07-29-2002 High Low Volume Advance/Decl DJIA 8711.88+447.49 8711.88 8267.99 2114 mln 2581/614 NASDAQ 1335.25 +73.13 1335.25 1272.46 1607 mln 2537/862 S&P 100 450.87 +23.94 450.87 426.93 totals 5118/1476 S&P 500 898.96 -27.90 898.96 852.84 RUS 2000 400.81 +18.55 400.82 382.26 DJ TRANS 2380.95+126.16 2382.16 2254.93 VIX 33.35 - 6.71 37.44 33.35 VIXN 57.57 -11.45 67.42 57.21 Put/Call Ratio 0.69 ****************************************************************** =========== Market Wrap =========== News of stock buybacks and dollar's strength helps lift stocks This morning's news that publicly traded companies had announced a staggering $43 billion worth of stock buyback programs in July helped lift investor sentiment on thoughts that stocks may once again be near a bargain basement type of valuation, that even a company's board of directors couldn't pass up if they were assured that earnings reports were on the level with generally accepted accounting procedures and the economy may be poised for a continued rebound. If the multitude of recently announced buyback programs wasn't enough to gain some type of recovery in investor confidence, then the further strengthening of the U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 106.71 +1.33% to a 15-session high along with another strong round of selling in the Treasury markets, was enough to move even the grumpiest of bears off his barstool and do some buying before too many more profits evaporated. The Dow Industrials (INDU) jumped an impressive 447.49 points (+5.41%) by session's end to close at 8,711.88. The only Dow component posting a loss was shares of SBC Communications (NYSE:SBC) $26.21 -0.15%. Weighing on the fixed-wireline telecom stock was news out of Qwest Communications (NYSE:Q) $1.49 -0.66% confirming it would restate financial results for 1999 through 2001 due to the use of improper accounting methods. The company also withdrew its previous estimates for future earnings, and warned that its accounting review is still not complete. Still, even this beleaguered telecom stock was able to recover from an earlier 26% decline and session low of $1.11 to finish down just 1-cent on the session. The broader S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) gained a similar 5.4% adding 46.12 points to 898.96 on a broad market rally, which found all of the major sectors finishing in positive territory. The smallest of gains among the various indexes came from the dividend yielding utility stocks as depicted by the Utility Sector Index (UTY.X) 252.33 +0.78%. Late today it was announced that Warren Buffett was doing some bargain shopping of his own in the energy sector. Mr. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (AMEX:BRK.A) $68,305 +7.31% bought Dynegy's (NYSE:DYN) $1.20 +76.47% Norther Natural Gas unit's 16,500 mile energy-transporting pipeline for $1.878 billion, which would be a 24% discount to the $2.473 billion that Dynegy paid the now bankrupt Enron back in January. Considered the world's second- wealthiest man, Mr. Buffett has a reputation for buying undervalued assets, then exploiting their intrinsic value for handsome gains. While a relative newcomer to the energy business, as a resident of Omaha, Nebraska, Mr. Buffett probably knows more about Northern Natural Gas that many. Years ago, before it was gobbled up by Enron during their aggressive growth by acquisitions strategy, Norther Natural Gas was based in Omaha. Today's move by Mr. Buffett isn't his first attempt at buying up perceived depressed assets in the energy transport area. Earlier this year, Mr. Buffett bought Williams Company's (NYSE:WMB) $1.99 +87.73% Kern River pipeline for $450 million, plus the assumption of $510 million in debt. Williams Company's (WMB) booked a loss on the deal. While many utility-related stocks didn't seem to respond to today's acquisition news of some of Dynegy's pipeline assets by Bufett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), the Natural Gas Index (XNG.X) 122.83 +7.14% surged as components Dynegy (NYSE:DYN) $1.20 +76.47% and Williams Companies (NYSE:WMB) $1.99 +87.33% posted gains. Early this morning, before the opening bell, Williams Companies (WMB) reported an earning's loss of $-0.34 per share, which excluded non-recurring items. Tomorrow, Dynegy (DYN) is expected to report earnings and analysts are looking for the company to post earnings of $0.01 a share. In past commentary, from much higher levels, I've been bearish on these "energy traders" and current position would to be a buyer ONLY if the trader is looking to lock in gains from short positions. Also boosting the Natural Gas Index's (XNG.X) gains were positive comments from David Bradshaw of Deutsche Bank on natural gas producers and sector components Apache Corp. (NYSE:APA) $52.07 +6.28% and Anadarko Petroluem (NYSE:APC) $43.31 +6.67%. "They are managing for returns and not pursuing growth for its own sake. To me, that's a huge positive," said Bradshaw. Industry analysts seemed to concur with Bradshaw as other industry watchers noted that record natural gas prices in the late 2000 and early 2001 led to some high-price acquisitions that may now appear imprudent, but otherwise analysts say exploration and production companies are generally keeping their word and running tighter ships. Until oil and gas prices plunged in 1998 and 1999 and forced a rethink, companies often adhered to a simple mantra of volume growth, which resulted in indiscriminate capital spending. Phillip Dodge of Ryan Beck & Company chimed in by saying "In the past, energy companies followed Parkinson's law of corporate spending: if the money was there, they spent it." Major Market Averages/Indexes - Today's action At the very top of my "US Market Watch" screen, we're already trading "tomorrow" in the U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 107.03 +0.41%, but today's close at 106.71 +1.3% hints that cash was coming back toward U.S. assets. The continuation of gains found in the dollar against a basket of 7 weighted currencies may also bode well for bull's tomorrow. For some reason, q-charts immediately "resets" the Dow Jones US Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) to "unchanged" right after the close of trading, but this index also experienced strong gains today, jumping 26.3 points (+8.6%) to 331.94 from Friday's close of 305.64. As you can see, equity bears probably saw what they least wanted to see in a strengthening dollar and selling in Treasuries, while equity bulls finally got both and equities had a broad rally. The benchmark 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) saw its YIELD jump to the 4.533% level. Just prior to the close, the price on the 10-year Treasury dropped 1 15/32 at $102 10/32, representing a -1.4% decline in price. That's a substantial one-day move, especially for bond bulls counting on a 4.367% annual return of interest. Can it continue? One day at time! Treasuries look to be the main driver for cash that has found its way back into equities and this will be primary focus tomorrow morning. Equity bears need to be careful and not lets trades get away from them and stay disciplined with their stops, regardless of what they "believe" lays ahead for the economy. Last fall, the U.S. Treasury decided to suspend further auctions of the 30-year Treasury, instead option to finance its debt with shorter-term maturities. As such, we've been using the 10-year Treasury YIELD ($TNX.X) as our benchmark bond. At today's closing YIELD of 4.533% in this bond, we find a similar level to that of November 14th. Traders should understand the potential for further selling here, which could drive stock prices higher. 10-year Treasury YIELD Chart - Daily Interval Just as stocks may have gotten a little "oversold" recently, it could be argued that Treasuries got a little "overbought." In our July 24th intraday update at 01:00 PM EST, we thought the action in the shorter-term 5-year Treasury hinted of some type of asset allocation program. I've marked the July 24th bar on the chart above, which also depicts similar action. A gap higher in YIELD tomorrow morning (if it happens) could have equity bears grinding their teeth as they begin assessing further selling in the 10-year YIELD to the 4.635% level. That's probably not unreasonable near-term based on some historic action that investors witnessed from similar levels back on November 14th. It is notable that back in November, stock did indeed look to lead higher, despite a falling YIELD in Treasuries. The lower YIELD action into mid-November may have been entirely a near-term supply shortage created by the Treasuries decision to suspend further auctioning of the longer-term 30-year Treasury. Barring some unforeseen decision by the Treasury to either suspend other auctions or lift the suspension of 30-year Treasury auctions, stocks and Treasury bonds now appear to be more in unison. S&P 500 Index Chart - Daily Interval I'd start looking for support to begin firming in the S&P 500 (SPX.X) from the 854-870 level and bulls may now be targeting upside to the 942 and 987 range (keep an eye on Treasury YIELDS to tell us if cash continues to free up there that could find its way into stocks). Equity bulls should NOT be afraid to tighten up some stops and be willing to book some gains of 10% or greater in some positions if they achieve targets! Equity bears need to show some discipline with their stops. Let's face it, we "knew" that bears had the risk with the bullish % charts being at such oversold levels and the two things bears DID NOT want to see happen has started to happen (selling in Treasuries and strengthening in bonds). Today's action also saw the S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) from http://www.stockcharts.com reverse into "bull alert" status and now reads 19.8% from Friday's reading of just 13.8% (last Wednesday, this indicator fell to just 12%). Under the "bull alert" status, bullish equity traders can begin taking partial bullish positions in this market, but should be willing to trade for profits of 10-15%. The narrower S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) from www.stockcharts.com also reversed up into "bull alert" status and currently stands at 21% bullish, up from Friday's reading of 10%. In essence, 11 stock of the 100 found here gave point and figure "buy signals" and hints that demand is beginning to outstrip supply. I would continue to "shy away" somewhat from many technology stocks if the bullish trader is risk averse and trying to get some type of firm footing in their account. Equity bears in this group need to be careful of near-term short-squeezes as the broader market internals begin to show some signs of strength from very oversold levels. The narrow yet very volatile NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) is currently in a "bull correction" status at 28%, but a reading of 30% would have this market (NASDAQ-100) back into a "bull confirmed" status. Jeff Bailey Senior Market Technician PremierInvestor.net ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Apache Corp - APA - close: 52.07 change: +3.08 WHAT TO WATCH: The past week has produced some impressive gains in APA. Some may argue that the stock is short-term overbought, but the bullish MACD and daily stochastics (5,3,3) suggest otherwise. Shares gushed higher by 6.2% today, outperforming a strong rally in the OIX.X oil index. Traders feeling bullish on the oil sector can target entries on pullbacks to either psychological support at $50.00 or the 200-dma at $51.14. We'd be looking for shares to conquer the 50-dma ($54.22) and make a run towards near-term resistance at $58.00. Point-and-figure chartists will note that APA has bearish resistance at $55.00. --- Broadcom - BRCM - close: 19.11 change: +1.73 WHAT TO WATCH: Semiconductor bulls enjoyed a 6.9% rally in the SOX.X today, but they're not out of the woods yet! A rollover from prior support at 350 could trigger another round of selling in the chip sector. If the group does head lower, we think BRCM is an attractive short. Shares have gained 14% in just two sessions and face overhead resistance at $20.00 and the 50-dma at $20.42. A rollover from the region would be a good time to consider going short. And check out the MACD...It's curling lower from just below the baseline and is threatening a bearish crossover. The last two times this happened (in mid-March and late-April), BRCM was soon met with heavy selling. --- MGIC Invest Cp - MTG - close: 60.96 change: +2.97 WHAT TO WATCH: The IUX.X insurance index has rebounded sharply over the past four days and looks to be headed for a test of resistance at 280. A move over this level could quickly send the index to 300. MTG is sitting on some large gains as well, but is also the proud owner of a freshly-minted bullish MACD crossover. If the broader market continues its winning ways, there's nothing in the way of overhead resistance to prevent a test of the 200- dma at $64.19. Entries can be gauged on a pullback to psychological support at $60.00. Bears may also want to look out for a rollover at the 200-dma, which could send shares back to $60.00. In related sector news, ACE reports earnings tomorrow morning. --- Ross Stores - ROST - close: 41.09 change: +1.82 WHAT TO WATCH: ROST has already rebounded sharply from its 200- dma at $36.00, but the bulls might not be done just yet. Shares closed above both psychological resistance/support at $40.00 and the 50-dma at $40.61. A pullback to either one of these levels could provide aggressive short-term traders with an action point to go long. Although the daily stochastics are approaching overbought levels, the recent bullish MACD crossover hints at more upside movement. --- Siebel Systems - SEBL - close: 9.49 change: +0.10 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of SEBL finished in the green today, but it was a hallow victory. The rallying NASDAQ created an ideal climate for SEBL to break above resistance at $10.00. Unfortunately for shareholders, the stock was hammered this morning after failing to move above that level. The lackadaisical trading that followed is an ominous sign. Given this relative weakness, one imagines that SEBL could trade sharply lower if/when the NASDAQ reverses course. Short positions can be considered on continued weakness from current levels, or on another rollover from $10.00. --- Synopsys - SNPS - close: 42.85 change: +1.42 WHAT TO WATCH: We scanned a lot of stock charts today, and several of them were displaying the same pattern of steep gains over the past few sessions. So steep, in fact, that their overbought conditions make long plays a risky proposition. This isn't the case with SNPS. Shares recently bounced from the sub- $40 region but haven't seen any sort of skyrocketing price action. The daily stochastics (5,3,3) are only beginning to move higher, offering technical confirmation that SNPS isn't overbought. Bullish traders should be watching for shares to move above today's high of $43.06. Although previous support at $44.00 may act as resistance, short-covering could propel SNPS to the $46 level. --- VeriSign - VRSN - close: 6.54 change: -0.15 WHAT TO WATCH: Only a handful of NASDAQ-100 stocks finished with losses today, one of which was VRSN. Shares gapped higher this morning but were unable to maintain those gains. As a matter of fact, the stock actually trended lower for most of the session. Talk about relative weakness! Given today's action, we think VRSN will trade sharply lower if the NASDAQ begins to pull back and consolidate some of its recent gains. Short entries can be gauged on a break under today's low of $6.27. Our profit target would be psychological support at $5.00. Note that shorting single-digit stocks requires a high-risk strategy. Also, different firms may have various rules regarding margin requirements. Check with your broker to find out what their specific margin requirements are. ========================= Play-of-the-Day (High-risk/High-reward BEARISH play) ========================= Telecom Brasil - TBH - close: 16.99 change: -0.46 stop: 20.01 Company Description: Telebras HOLDRS operated as a telecommunication company until 5/98, whereby it spun-off 12 new companies. TBH controlling shareholders has announced its intention to liquidate and dissolve the Company. For the comparable FY ended 12/31/00, the Company reported no revenues. Net income applicable to U.S. GAAP fell 82% to CR$2M. Results reflect the absence of any revenue generating operation, higher operating expenses, and lower interest income.) - ORIGINAL WRITE UP: July 26th, 2002 - Why We Like It: Talk about a double-whammy! Shareholders of TBH have had the misfortune of holding a stock whose sector is in an absolute freefall, and also a flailing political environment surrounding the country. Just take a look at the IXTCX combined telecom index, which has been setting all-time lows on almost a weekly basis. The recent WorldCom disaster and allegations of accounting irregularities at Qwest have only accelerated the downtrend. But to make matters worse, TBH has also been pressured by swirling uncertainty regarding Brazil's political and economic climate. Fears of a socialist agenda being imposed by the current Presidential frontrunner (elections are in October) have sent foreign investment capital scurrying to safer havens. This has led to a severe decline in Brazil's currency. As you might expect, these developments have taken a severe toll on TBH. The stock tumbled below the $20.00 level this week and is currently trading at all-time lows. Technically, the bearish MACD and lack of underlying support hint at a continued decline. Where the stock finally stops is anyone's guess, but we don't think a move to $10.00 is out of the question. Such an ambitious profit target, however, calls for a lenient stop-loss. After all, this IS a high-risk/high-reward play. Our initial stop will be located at $20.01. More conservative traders may place theirs just above today's high of $18.31. Of course, if all goes as planned we'll ratchet down our stop as TBH continues to fall. Although psychological support at $15.00 may offer a brief respite for the bulls, we don't anticipate more than a small bounce from this level. - Play-of-the-Day Comments: July 29th, 2002 - Somebody must've forgotten to tell TBH about today's explosive 8.1% rally in the IXTCX combined telecom index. Shares finished the session with a 2.6% loss and hit a new all-time low of $16.86. Even Qwest fared better than TBH, and Q just disclosed accounting errors of over $1 Billion! Needless to say, TBH looks like it could head sharply lower if the current telecom bullishness fades. New short entries can be evaluated on a move under today's low or another failed rally at the $18.00 level. Picked on July 26th at $17.45 Results since picked: +0.46 Earnings Date N/A ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 07-29-2002 section 2 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/g29b_2.asp ================================================================= In section two: Net Bulls Closed Bearish Plays: KLAC, QLGC, ROOM Stock Bottom / Active Trader Stop Adjustments: MGAM (bullish) Triggered Plays: HUG, USTR (bullish) Closed Bearish Plays: VFC High Risk/Reward Stop Adjustments: ISSX (bullish) Closed Bearish Plays: BYD Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== =============== NB Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 38.91 change: +1.62 stop: 40.50 As per the exit strategy outlined in the most recent update, this play was closed at the end of trading on Monday. Our closing price is $38.91, which represents a gain of 2.0% from our original entry point. KLAC attracted some buyers ahead of tomorrow morning's earnings, but investors seemed to approach the stock with a bit of trepidation. The stock underperformed the semiconductor index (SOX.X) and was unable to move above Friday's high. We're expecting a lot of volatility tomorrow following the earnings announcement. Traders who chose to take the high-risk approach of holding over the report should be prepared for a wild ride! Be aware of the possibility that if the NASDAQ's bullish momentum carries over into tomorrow's session, even a disappointing report could be met with buyers. Picked on July 25th at $39.74 Results since picked: +0.83 Earnings Date 07/30/02 (confirmed) --- QLogic - QLGC - close: 40.43 change: +2.74 stop: 40.06 Semiconductor bears were in full retreat today as the NASDAQ rocketed to a 73-point gain. QLGC powered higher by 7.2%, slightly outpacing a strong rally in the SOX.X. Our play was closed for a 5.2% loss when the stock violated our stop at $40.06. Despite today's impressive gains in the SOX, the index remains under former support at 350. A rollover from this level could lead to another downward leg for QLGC. However, the stock's rising daily stochastics (5,3,3) portend more upside movement. Today's close above psychological resistance at $40.00 is also a positive technical development. Traders who elected to use a more liberal approach to risk management should be watching for the 50-dma at $42.49 to provide resistance, although the most prudent strategy would simply be to cover positions on any intraday weakness. Picked on July 23rd at $38.06 Results since picked: -2.00 Earnings Date 07/18/02 (confirmed) --- Hotels.com - ROOM - close: 43.09 change: +3.19 stop: 42.01 Shares of online travel stocks TSG, EXPE, and ROOM, all moved sharply higher on Monday, with the latter posting an 8% gain. Our play was closed for a 6.3% loss when ROOM moved above our stop-loss at $42.01. Shares also broke out of the descending channel that had been intact since May. This technical development, combined with the bullish MACD, suggests that shares will continue higher in the near-term. Bears, however, will note that today's rally came on relatively weak volume and the daily stochastics (5,3,3) are approaching overbought levels. ROOM also has overhead resistance at $45.00 (location of the 50-dma) and 200-dma at $47.00. We would not be surprised to see shares test the 50-dma within the next few sessions. Picked on July 25th at $39.50 Results since picked: -2.51 Earnings Date 07/23/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== =============== AT Play Updates =============== Stop Adjustments ---------------- Multimedia Games - MGAM - cls: 22.44 chg: +1.61 stop: 19.94 *new* We had a hunch that MGAM would trade higher today, following Friday's successful test of psychological support at $20.00. Of course, it didn't hurt that the Dow Jones exploded for it's third-largest point gain ever. In light of today's 7.7% rally in MGAM, we're going to tighten our stop to $19.94, just under psychological support (and also today's low) at $20.00. Triggered Plays --------------- Hughes Supply - HUG - cls: 37.48 chg: +2.65 stop: 34.82 *new* Shares of HUG tacked on 7.6% today, further distancing themselves from the 200-dma ($33.90). Not a bad start for this play, which was triggered when shares reached $35.01. To minimize our downside risk, we're going to tighten our stop to $34.82. This is a penny under today's low. Also remember that we have a profit target set at $39.70. --- United Stationers - USTR - cls: 26.15 chg: +1.31 stop: 23.99*new* USTR chalked up a 5.2% gain on Monday, roughly mirroring the Dow Jones. Our play was triggered when stares traded at $25.01. Based on today's action, we're going to bump up our stop to $23.99, a penny under today's low. More conservative traders could use a stop just below psychological support at $25.00. A pullback to this region might provide an opportunity to enter new long positions. =============== AT Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- VF Corporation - VFC - close: 39.22 change: +1.83 stop: 37.51 The RLX.X retail index continued to retrace its recent losses on Monday, thanks in large part to the powerful broader market rally. VFC followed the sector higher and finished with a 4.8% gain. After narrowly avoiding our stop ($37.51) on Friday, the stock quickly eclipsed that mark in early-morning trading. Our play was closed for a loss of 2.0%. It appears the bears are on the defensive now that VFC has completely broken out of its descending channel. Traders who are still short should be watching for a rollover from psychological support at $40.00, which is wedged in between the 50-dma and 200-dma. The stock has gained more than 15% in the past four sessions and may be due for a pullback. Of course, it would probably be futile to try to fight a continued rally in the Dow Jones. Picked on July 25th at $36.76 Results since picked: -0.75 Earnings Date 07/17/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section ================================================================== =============== HR Play Updates =============== Stop Adjustments ---------------- Internet Security - ISSX - cls: 16.48 chg: +1.03 stop: 14.94*new* ISSX moved higher with the NASDAQ today and pegged a new relative high of $16.53. Shares closed just five cents under that level, which bodes well for a continued ascent on Tuesday. We're going to tighten our stop to $14.94, which will force shares to trade below psychological support at $15.00. This is essentially a break-even stop. More conservative traders looking to protect a gain may want to place theirs just under today's low of $15.58. Remember that we'll close this play if ISSX trades at or above $16.99. =============== HR Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Boyd Gaming - BYD - close: 14.85 change: +1.33 stop: 14.01 Well, we knew a large move might be in store for BYD. The stock had traded in an increasingly narrow range, which often precedes a breakdown or breakout. Unfortunately we didn't get the large move we had hoped for. Aided by an explosive across-the-board rally in the broader market, BYD exploded with a 9.8% gain. Our play was closed for a 10-cent gain early in the morning when shares hit our stop at $14.01. The stock may also have benefited from Friday night's credit rating upgrade, which we discussed in the last update. In light of the powerful rally and rising daily stochastics, we would not be surprised to see BYD reach near-term resistance at $16.00 within the next few sessions. It would take a serious bullish effort to push shares above that level. Picked on July 18th at $14.11 Results since picked: +0.10 Earnings Date 07/17/02 (confirmed) ================= Trading Ideas ================= This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change BCS Barclays Plc Adr 30.65 +2.09 BBT BB&T Corp 36.73 +1.63 MTG MGIC Investments Corp 60.96 +2.97 RSLN Roslyn Bancorp 21.54 +1.29 SFD Smithfield Foods Inc 17.48 +1.33 WFSL Washington Federal 25.01 +1.76 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change ABN ABN AMRO Holdings 15.46 +1.39 AEG Aegon Nv 13.90 +1.38 PTV Pactiv Corp 19.07 +1.36 DCN Dana Corp 16.66 +1.67 WHI W Holding Co 19.16 +1.16 IDCO Interactive Data Corp 13.66 +1.17 CURE Curative Health Services 17.68 +1.72 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change TEF Telfonica SA 29.91 +1.20 JPM JP Morgan 25.10 +2.85 DB Deutsche Bank 60.38 +3.98 HIG Hartford Financial 51.35 +2.65 SPC St Paul Co 30.19 +3.19 APOL Apollo Group Inc 39.14 +2.46 RHI Robert Half Intl 20.57 +2.05 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change COF Capital One 29.35 -1.15 GOSHA Oshkosh B'gosh 31.82 -2.67 LNN Lindsay Manufacturing 22.55 -1.45 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change None ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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