Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 08/01/2002

HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Thursday 08-01-2002
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/h01_1.asp
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      GM's July Sales Was Bright Spot in Otherwise Dismal Day
Play-of-the-Day:  Bear Air Up Here
Market Sentiment: You Mean Everything's NOT OK?

************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************
      08-01-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8506.62 -230.00  8734.31  8479.90 1.91 bln   1224/1954
NASDAQ   1280.00 - 48.30  1326.10  1276.88 1.47 bln   1259/2140
S&P 100   444.32 - 14.55   458.87   443.12   Totals   2483/4094
S&P 500   884.66 - 29.96   911.62   882.48 
RUS 2000  389.21 -  3.21   394.47   388.00 
DJ TRANS 2308.26 - 61.08  2371.74  2307.58   
VIX        41.49 +  6.28    41.80    36.70   
VXN        60.35 +  2.49    60.93    58.80 
Total Vol   3,595.9M
Total UpVol   671.2M
Total DnVol 2,836.1M
52wk Highs    48
52wk Lows    298
TRIN        2.26
PUT/CALL     .76
*************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

GM's July sales was bright spot in otherwise dismal day

The "big 3" automakers reported their July total vehicle sales 
this afternoon with General Motors (NYSE:GM) $45.84 -1.52% saying 
its July U.S. total vehicle sales jumped 24% from a year ago to 
465,843 units, with results being driven higher by a 36% gain in 
truck sales to total 268,620 units.  Car sales at the world's #1 
automaker rose 11% to 197,223.

GM said that cheap finance rates and dealer incentives helped 
bolster sales in July as consumers showed they remain committed 
to buying new trucks.

Number 2 automaker Ford (NYSE:F) $13.05 -3.11% said that sales 
for the month of July rose a more modest 1.5% to 319,975 units 
from last year, as truck sales increased despite a decline in its 
most popular F-series trucks.  Ford's July increase is the first 
year-over-year rise for 2002 and shows a 4% gain in retail sales 
and a 9% decline in sales to corporate customers and rental 
companies.  

DaimlerChrysler (NYSE:DCX) $41.58 -2.75% the number 3 automaker 
said that sales for July fell -4% from last year to 185,602 
units.  While car sales jumped 17%, truck, minivan and SUV sales 
declined.  DCX executives said that sales to fleet customers are 
stabilizing and retail sales are up when compared with last year.  
By brand, Chrysler-label models fell 1% to 41,255 units, Jeep 
fell 8% to 39,535 units and Dodge fell 3% to 104,812 as truck 
sales declined 12% to 78,023.

Among other automakers releasing month's sales data, Subaru said 
it had a record July at 7,609 units. 

Toyota (NYSE:TM) $48.59 +1.29% said that its July U.S. sales set 
a record, up 4.6% from last year's record to hit 156,053 units.  
That strength came from a 9.4% increase in passenger car sales to 
87,680 units, which was lead by strong sales results with the new 
Camry.  Truck and SUV's, however, fell 1% from last year's 68,373 
units.

Nissan said July sales rose 2.4% from last year, lead by a 34% 
increase in its Infiniti line.

While the automakers showed mixed results, with the big upside 
surprise being General Motors' (GM) unit sales gains, the markets 
were more concerned about the slowing growth of the U.S. economy.

Stocks never did recover from their lower open after the 
Institute for Supply Management index (ISM) sank to 50.5% in 
July, from June's 56.2% reading.. While the 50.5% reading still 
depicts expansion above 50%, it was close enough to 50% for 
investors to sit on their hands and perhaps move to the sidelines 
in stocks that had made a move higher earlier in the week.

The ISM data showed that new orders dropped to 50.4% from 60.8% 
in June, while production dropped to 55.7% from 61.4% in the same 
period.  The employment component fell to 45% from 49.7% and 
continues to hint of a weak labor market.  All ISM data is 
"waterlined" at the 50% level, so the employment side of things 
still shows contraction in the manufacturing segment of the 
economy.

Norbert Ore, head of the ISM survey committee said, "Comments 
from purchasing and supply executives reflect a wide range of 
concerns.  Some indicate that business is improving, but question 
whether it will continue.  Others are experiencing declines and 
question if we have hit a bottom."

Yesterday's gross domestic product, combined with today's broader 
ISM data definitely shows the economy is cooling from its first 
quarter pace.

The combined reports still have many economists scratching their 
heads and wondering if the economy is headed for a "double-dip" 
recession, or if the recent cooling from the first quarter's pace 
is simply a pause, which reflects the mood of uncertainty on Wall 
Street.

Chief economist at Wachovia, John Silvia said, "The continued 
equity market and political uncertainty has prompted many firms 
to worry less about output and more about cleaning up the balance 
sheet," limiting the cash available for operations.

Construction spending also below expectations

Adding to worries of a double-dip recession was weaker than 
forecasted construction spending in June.  Economists were 
looking for modest gains of 0.4%, but construction spending fell 
-2.2% after a slightly revised higher -0.7% decline in May 
(revised from -1.0%).

According to the Commerce Department's Census Bureau, the June 
figure is -3.7% (+/- 4.6) below June 2001.

During the first 6 months of this year, $394.8 billion of 
construction was put in place, which was unchanged (+/- 3.2%) 
from the same period in 2001.

Spending on new residential housing units was at a seasonally 
adjusted annual rate of $293.5 billion in June, 0.5% (+/- 1.6%) 
below the revised May estimate of $295.1 billion.  Nonresidential 
building construction was at a rate of $165.4 billion, 3.4% below 
the revised May estimate of $171.2 billion.

Public construction spending fell -3.1% (+/- 4.7%) to a 
seasonally adjusted rate of $197.5 billion, which was lower than 
May's revised estimate of $203.8 billion.

The lower construction spending numbers had the Dow Jones U.S. 
Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) 309.66 -2.85% falling 9 points 
on the session.

Technology stocks under pressure

While the more directly related economically sensitive 
sectors/indexes like the Retail HOLDRS (AMEX:RTH) 75.65 -3.87%, 
Airline (XAL.X) 52.21 -3.49%, Forest & Paper (FPP.X) 324.91 
-0.15%, Dow Transports (TRAN) 2,308 -2.6% and Cyclical (CYC.X) 
488 -1.6% were weak today, it was the more volatile and further 
away from an economic "money pot" technology sectors that 
witnessed sharp declines.

Bigger technology as depicted by the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 
913.59 -5.04% and the heavily traded NASDAQ-100 Trust (AMEX:QQQ) 
$22.73 -4.69% outpaced the major indexes to the downside.

Sub sectors of technology had the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 
311.88 -5.75% leading the declines.

Shares of National Semiconductor (NYSE:NSM) $17.13 -5.41% broke 
to a 52-week low today, just before tonight's announcement that 
Q1 sales are now expected to be flat with Q4's $419.5 million, 
versus previous guidance of 6-8% growth and consensus estimates 
for sales of $446.1 million.  The company said overall order 
rates were lower than expected in June, especially for PC 
products and related peripherals, such as CRTs and displays.  
Weekly order rates for the company improved in July compared to 
June and are now more consistent with original expectations.

National Semi's (NSM) news had shares of Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) 
$17.60 -6.33% extending losses to $17.45 in after-hours trading 
and semi-equipment maker Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) $14.02 
-5.71% fell $0.22 to $13.80 in post-market trading.

Mickey matches estimates, but cautious consumer hurts outlook

Dow component Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) $16.83 -5.07% 
reported earnings late tonight, saying it earned $364 million, or 
$0.18 a share, compared with $527 million, or $0.25, a share for 
the same quarter last year.  Sales fell to $5.8 billion versus $6 
billion in last year's third quarter.

The results were inline with analysts' pro forma earnings 
estimates.  Excluding gains and charges against earnings, Disney 
(DIS) posted pro forma profit of $343 million, or $0.17 a share 
versus $610 million, or $0.29 a share last year.

Disney officials warned there may be storm clouds on the horizon 
for its theme park business, as reservations for hotels at the 
parks are slowing down in the current quarter.

Chief Financial Officer Thomas Staggs said attendance was down 
-6% for the quarter compared with last year, adding that bookings 
are down 10% thus far in the fourth quarter when compared with 
last year.  "That's a sign of a cautious consumer right now," 
Staggs said.

Mr. Staggs went on to say that after the September 11 attacks, 
Disney's theme park business has been battered, particularly at 
its flagship Disney world resort in Florida.  Disney World, by 
far the biggest of the company's theme parks, relies more heavily 
on air travel for business than the company's other venues.

Staggs said the company's ABC Television Network didn't show any 
signs of recovery, but he said network officials are seeing a 
mid-single digit upturn in advance bookings for the upcoming fall 
season.

Analysts point to ABC lagging behind the other three major 
broadcast networks in ratings after it put all of its eggs in the 
"Who Wants To Be A Millionaire" program without developing other 
shows.  "Millionaire" ratings tumbled, taking the rest of the 
network down with it."

Disney officials were rather vague in their guidance for the 
upcoming 4th quarter.  In its earning's release, the company's 
guidance was for Q4 to be "somewhat lower than prior-year pro 
forma amounts."  According to First Call, when adjusted for 
accounting changes, Disney's pro forma profit in the year ago 
period was $0.13 a share.  First Call's current consensus among 
analysts' polled was $0.16.

Shares of Disney (DIS) $16.83 -5.07% were halted in after-hours 
trading and at the time of this update, last trade stands at 
$16.83.

Will protecting of profits send Pixar lower?

The recent sharp declines in graphics and media communications 
company NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) $10.01 -9.57% from the $20 level 
just a few week's ago and recently announced earning's warnings 
may have bulls in Pixar (NASDAQ:PIXR) $43.66 -0.75% on pins and 
needles ahead of earnings scheduled for August 8th.

I wouldn't say there's a "direct tie" between NVIDIA's recent 
earnings woes and what could lie ahead with Pixar (PIXR), but 
there are some indirect ties as it relates to the 
graphics/software business.

On July 22nd, PIXR announced it had settled its lawsuit against 
Exluna, Inc, relating to all pending litigation and any other 
disputes between the two companies.  Exluna, a privately held 
software company specializing in software development technology 
for film quality graphics rendering, was charged with 
misappropriation of trade secrets, copyright infringement and 
patent infringement.

Where the "tie" comes in as it relates to industry likeness, is 
that NVIDIA announced on July 22nd, that it would be acquiring 
the privately held Exluna.

Our thinking then becomes, if NVIDIA is seeing weakness in its 
business, and Pixar's "partner" Disney (DIS) that has marketed 
Pixar's popular animated movies is cautious on the consumer, then 
the potential "head and shoulders" pattern in Pixar may have the 
stock trading lower on both a potential technical and fundamental 
play setup.

Pixar Chart - Daily Interval




It's rather obvious that PIXR has traded strong relative to the 
markets and I'd suggest that traders looking to play this 
profiled bearish play stay disciplined with their stops as 
outlined.  

There did seem to be some "pulling of bids" in stocks today into 
the close as the major market averages finished at their session 
lows.  If traders are pulling bids, then any pulling of bids and 
some bulls looking to protect gains with broader-market 
negativity starting to pick up again could have PIXR pulling back 
into our retracement range of $38 to $40.

Wal-Mart update

Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT) $47.40 -3.61% did not trade well 
today as the economic data sure seems to be weighing on the 
stock.

In recent weeks I wanted to look for SIMILARITY or DIVERGENCE and 
I think there was enough DIVERGENCE today to have any bulls 
setting a tight stop under the stock, just below today's low of 
$46.82.

Wal-Mart Chart - Daily Interval




I'm starting to see DIVERGENCE from what I was looking for 
technically in WMT based on prior comments made in my market 
wraps and intraday commentary.  It's been tough for stocks to 
hold any type of bullish moves in the past couple of sessions and 
I think it best to keep any losses small for shorter-term 
traders.

While there have not been any negative developments in WMT's 
point and figure chart, I did want to see the stock show similar 
technicals in its bar chart as it relates to early October 
consolidation (blue arrow on left of chart).  I'm seeing enough 
DIVERGENCE the past two sessions to have me much more cautious 
with a bullish trade now.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician
PremierInvestor.net


=========================
Play-of-the-Day           (New non-tech BEARISH play)
=========================

Diamonds Trust - DIA - close: 84.87 change: -2.28 stop: 87.76

Trust Description:
The Diamonds Trust is a Dow Jones tracking stock that is traded on the 
AMEX.

Why we like it:
We hate to bet against the broader market, though with recent weakness 
in the Dow, shorting the Diamonds is exactly our plan.  With bad news 
surfacing in several Dow companies, we believe the index could possibly 
falter again.  In the last week: American Express received a downgrade 
by Merrill Lynch, while AT&T has suffered with the rest of the telecom 
infrastructure stumbling.  Citigroup has had to constantly defend 
itself against allegations of wrong doing in financial matters 
concerning Enron and other corporate debacles.  The company also has 
several class action lawsuits facing it.  Coca-Cola recently announced 
that it would begin expensing stock options, which could take a 10% 
chunk out of earnings this year.  DuPont earnings declined 15% in the 
second quarter with lower chemical and plastic prices.  The company 
expects a better third quarter, but admits that it is dependent on 
overall economic conditions.  Exxon Mobile slipped lower today on poor 
earnings seven cents below consensus estimates.  The earnings failure 
by the oil giant was attributed to a weakened dollar, lacking 
downstream business, and a decline in realizations of gas prices.  GE 
also announced that it would begin expensing stock options, which will 
weight down the companies bottom line.  Intel has suffered with the 
rest of the tech sector, plagued by poor earnings and future guidance 
announcements.  IBM has taken heat by acquiring PricewaterhouseCoopers 
and unveiling a 3 billion dollar microchip plant in New York.  J.P. 
Morgan has been under constant fire in regard to its activities with 
accounting minefields such as Enron and WorldCom.  Wal-Mart said 
earlier in the week that it expected sales to come in weaker than 
expected, and has also struggled with poor consumer confidence numbers. 
Finally, Walt-Disney had a sharp drop in earnings with many Americans 
and Europeans traveling less this year.  Revenue from theme park 
admissions suffered.  Also, the company's television network, ABC, has 
struggled due to a lack of hit shows.     

On the technical side, after rallying roughly 13% from the low of last 
week, the Dow could be due for a pullback.  Using a retracement tool, 
the 8700 area coincides with the 61% Fibonacci number, potentially 
indicating temporary top.  Stochastics are in the overbought region and 
look like they could potentially cross back below the upper line.  Our 
strategy for this trade is to keep our stop reasonably tight at $87.76.  
This would be just over a 270-point move in the Dow.  Short at current 
levels, our profit target for the trade is unofficially $80.00.  We can 
anticipate support in the 84 and 83 whole numbers on the way down.  
Also of note, the 38.2% retracement (bottom up) support lies at 82.50.  
If this trade begins to work in our favor, we will observe how the Dow 
components react and move our target accordingly.  Stay tuned for 
updates, as we will be moving our stop and profit target on this trade!  
Good luck bears!  

For annotated chart: click here
Chart of: Diamonds Trust, DIA.



Picked on July 25th at $84.87 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date              NA
 




================
Market Sentiment
================

You Mean Everything's NOT OK?

by Steven Price

The bad news keeps coming.  This morning's economic data showed 
initial jobless claims rose 20,000 to 387,000, which was higher 
than the forecast of 365,000 to 375,000.  The Institute of Supply 
Management (ISM) report came in at 50.5%, which was lower than 
the expected 55.3%.  Construction spending was down 2.2% versus 
an expected increase of 0.2%.  These numbers, combined with 
yesterday's disappointing GDP and Chicago PMI data, have given 
the market a downward push.  The Dow was down over 200 points 
today, however it has found support at 8500 once again.  Although 
we traded as low as 8479.90, the bulls pushed the group back over 
the 8500 level to hold the close above support. With more data 
out tomorrow, this level may not hold if the news is bad.  We'll 
be getting the unemployment rate for July and if this morning's 
initial claims number for last week is any indication, this is 
bound to disappoint.  We will also be seeing non-farm payrolls 
for July, personal income for June and factory orders for June.

We headed into last weekend on a positive note after the market 
held its levels after an incredible rally.  The market has held 
most of this week's gains, however several factors could combine 
to send us into this weekend in negative territory. Three 
straight days of bad news (if Friday's data is no more 
encouraging than Wednesday's or Thursday's numbers) could speed 
up weekend profit taking for those investors who have become 
nervous about hanging on to recent gains. They may look at the 
recent market surge as a gifted opportunity to dump issues they 
had been holding on the way down, and today's 200-point drop may 
put a scare in them. If the Dow breaks back below the 8500 
support level we have seen the last couple of days, the decline 
could speed up as short-coverers move out of the way and longs 
look to get out.  The feeling of heading into the last trading 
day of the week after a three-digit down day "feels" much 
different to investors than coming off a 5 point give back after 
an almost 500 point rally, as we had last week. 

The technology sector received more bad news last night, as Adobe 
lowered both earnings and revenue estimates, citing "a difficult 
global business environment," which led to weaker than expected 
sales, particularly in Japan and Europe.  The stock was 
downgraded this morning by Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and UBS 
Warburg, and subsequently hammered by investors, trading down  
$7.12 to $16.84.

There was a bit of good news, as July U.S. sales were up 24% for 
GM and 1.5% for Ford.  These stocks have been hard hit in recent 
months and can use the boost.  Psychologically speaking, this is 
the only good news investors have seen this week. 

This morning's arrests of former WorldCom execs Scott Sullivan 
and Dave Myers, may serve to instill confidence that the 
government is "doing something" about company executives who are 
looting the shareholders.  However, the looming presence of the 
August 14 deadline for companies to certify their accounting 
statements could continue to keep investors on the sidelines 
until they are sure who is willing to back up the numbers.  
Overall, the market is feeling awfully heavy, and Friday's trade 
could bring another pullback.  Keep an eye on 8500 in the Dow and 
885 in the S&P 500, as these levels have been repeatedly tested 
the last few days.  This level was violated by the S&P, which 
closed 883.05.  The 8500 level in the Dow, however, has proved 
resilient.  If they go south together tomorrow, stay out of the 
way until new support levels are in place.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10679
52-week Low :  7702
Current     :  8506

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8278
 50-dma: 9162
200-dma: 9774

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1226
52-week Low :  797
Current     :  884

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  859
 50-dma:  971
200-dma: 1083

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1782
52-week Low :  896
Current     :  938

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  938
 50-dma: 1064
200-dma: 1369


-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X):  So much for the bottom in the 
SOX.  the index continues to slide to new lows as bad news keeps 
coming.  KLAC Tencor released earnings which showed a 64% 
reduction in earnings and 38% reduction in revenue.  This helped 
the bears pile on this sector and drive it to new 52-week lows.  
There is a significant downward trendline pointing this sector 
toward the 300 level, which it could see as early as tomorrow, if 
the economic data being released in the morning weighs on the 
overall markets.

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 311
Current     : 311

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 337
 50-dma: 402
200-dma: 505


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility
The VIX spiked back up over 40 today, on a big drop in the 
overall markets.  With unemployment and payroll data out 
tomorrow, premium remains high.  The Dow and S&P 500 are testing 
recent support levels, and fear of a big drop has led to higher 
option prices ahead of the economic reports.  Look for a drop 
back into the 30s if the reports are good and the market 
stabilizes, or goes up. If we have a drop, the VIX may spike 
higher, but in any case should settle down from intraday highs 
before the close, as traders try to avoid holding excessive long 
premium positions over the weekend.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 41.49 +6.28
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 60.35 +2.49

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.76        552,185       420,798
Equity Only    0.57        417,503       238,647
OEX            1.14         24,437        27,838
QQQ            0.24         64,113        15,532

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          30      + 1     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    31      + 0     Bull Confirmed
DOW           23      + 0     Bull Alert
S&P 500       28      + 3     Bull Alert
S&P 100       27      + 1     Bull Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.17
10-Day Arms Index  1.25
21-Day Arms Index  1.24
55-Day Arms Index  1.36

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1229          1890
NASDAQ     1216          2065

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         17             60
NASDAQ       67            135

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,976
NASDAQ   1,544

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/23/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials increased both longs and shorts, however increased 
long contracts totals by an additional 10,000 contracts more than 
shorts. Small traders continued to get longer, while adding 2,800 
net longs to their position.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
07/09/02      396,321   456,164   (59,843)   (7.0%)
07/16/02      388,943   464,162   (75,219)   (8.8%)
07/23/02      405,969   471,704   (65,735)   (7.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/09/02      145,017    71,402    73,615     34.0%
07/16/02      157,370    67,247    90,123     40.1%
07/23/02      166,713    73,778    92,935     38.6%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Commercials added contracts both long and short to their 
positions, maintaining approximately the same ratio, however 
increasing their positions by approximately 8,000 total 
contracts.  Small Traders added to their short positions reducing 
their net by approximately 400 contracts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
07/09/02       31,227     39,592    (8,725) (12.3%)
07/16/02       33,152     39,866    (6,714) ( 9.2%)
07/23/02       37,204     43,601    (6,397) ( 8.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
07/09/02       12,520     8,348     4,175     20.0%
07/16/02       12,816    10,774     2,042      8.7%
07/23/02       12,756    11,152     1,604      6.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials added 2,000 contracts to their long position, while 
adding only 671 to their shorts.  Small Traders increased both 
sides of their position, however added almost 2,000 more short 
contracts than long contracts. 


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/09/02       20,761    14,122    6,639     19.0%
07/16/02       20,357    14,074    6,283     18.2%
07/23/02       22,369    14,745    7,624     20.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
07/09/02        6,831     6,623       208     1.50%
07/16/02        8,524    10,133    (1,609)   (8.62%)
07/23/02        9,101    12,604    (3,503)   (16.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright © 2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 08-01-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/h01b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Plays:     PIXR
  Bearish Play Updates:  CYMI

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     CPG, DIA, MER
  Bullish Play Updates:  HUG, MGAM, USTR
  Bearish Play Updates:  ALK, DD, MO

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:     VRTS
  Bullish Play Updates:  HGSI
  Closed Bearish Plays:  TBH

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
                         


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Pixar Animation - PIXR - close: 43.66 change: -0.33 stop: *text*

Trust Description:
Pixar Animation Studios combines creative and technical artistry 
to create original stories in the medium of computer animation. 
Pixar has created four of the most successful and beloved 
animated films of all time: Academy Award®-winning Toy Story 
(1995); A Bug's Life (1998); Golden Globe-winner Toy Story 2 
(1999); and the Academy Award®-winning Monsters, Inc. (2001).  
Pixar's four films have earned more than $1.7 billion at the 
worldwide box office to date. The Northern California studios' 
next three film releases are Finding Nemo (summer 2003), The 
Incredibles (holiday 2004) and Cars (holiday 2005).

Why we like it:
The recent sharp declines in graphics and media communications 
company NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) $10.01 -9.57% from the $20 level 
just a few week's ago and recently announced earning's warnings 
may have bulls in Pixar (NASDAQ:PIXR) $43.66 -0.75% on pins and 
needles ahead of earnings scheduled for August 8th.
There probably isn't a "direct tie" between NVIDIA's recent 
earnings woes and what could lie ahead with Pixar (PIXR), but 
there are some indirect ties as it relates to the 
graphics/software business.

On July 22nd, PIXR announced it had settled its lawsuit against 
Exluna, Inc, relating to all pending litigation and any other 
disputes between the two companies.  Exluna, a privately held 
software company specializing in software development technology 
for film quality graphics rendering, was charged with 
misappropriation of trade secrets, copyright infringement and 
patent infringement.  Where the "tie" comes in as it relates to
industry likeness, is that NVIDIA announced on July 22nd, that
it would be acquiring the privately held Exluna.

Our thinking then becomes, if NVIDIA is seeing weakness in its 
business, and Pixar's "partner" Disney (DIS) that has marketed 
Pixar's popular animated movies is cautious on the consumer, then 
the potential "head and shoulders" pattern in Pixar may have the 
stock trading lower on both a potential technical and fundamental 
play setup.

Our strategy for this position is to put a trigger below today's 
low of $43.58.  Assuming the trade proves to be a head and 
shoulders pattern, we will put our profit target at $38.50.  The 
target is just above the June 13th low and slightly below the 
July 24th low.  With Stochastics firmly in overbought territory, 
this trade could meet our expectations.  The stop loss for this 
trade is just above the June 28th high at $45.01.  The stop is 
slightly above technical and psychological resistance.  We also 
anticipate congestion support in the $42.50 to $42.00 area.  The 
50-dma will also be an important benchmark to watch at 41.72, 
while the whole number 40 will also be a tough support level to 
challenge.  If everything works our according to plan on this 
trade, our P&L will become very animated!


Picked on July 25th at $xx.xx <-- See Text 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        08/08/02 (confirmed)

For annotated chart: click here
Chart of: Pixar Animation, PIXR.



 




===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  -------------------- 

Cymer Inc. - CYMI - close: 26.82 change: -1.17 stop: 30.01

With no fresh news on CYMI, the stock is displaying sector 
related weakness in light of poor earnings outlook by KLAC and 
lower-than-expected Q2 earnings by NVDA.  Though the 
semiconductor index had several days of respectable gains, the 
chip makers have seen resumed selling over the last two days.  
Trading down to the 311 area, we would like to see the $SOX.X 
break 304.45, which is the low four days ago.

Cymer Inc. certainly looks like the $SOX.X chart, and acts as if 
it could break down soon.  In the best-case scenario, the company 
will break the current relative low of 26.36.  Our short position 
is also encouraged with the 50-dma crossing below the 200-dma 
over the last few days - just another bearish technical 
development.  If selling continues, we will maintain our profit 
target at $22.51.  Allowing this trade room to breathe, we are 
keeping our stop at loose at $30.01.

Picked on July 26th at $27.55
Change since picked:    +0.73
Earnings Date        07/22/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Chelsea Property - CPG - close: 32.85 change: -0.97 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Chelsea Property Group, Inc. is a fully integrated, self-
administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT) 
that owns Premium Outlet(TM) and other shopping centers -in 28 
states and Japan. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Shares of CPG simply went vertical after hitting a low of $26.40 
on July 24th.  After five days of powerful gains, shares finally 
began to falter near $34.  That's to be expected, considering the 
fact that CPG was sitting on a rally of more than 28%.  Those 
gains were not fueled by any positive news regarding the company, 
but rather appear to have been the result of sector-wide short 
covering in the real estate group.  We observed similar patterns 
in DDR, SPG, DRE and KIM.  The bulls had a nice run, but the 
broader market indices are looking top-heavy and we suspect a 
pullback is at hand for CPG.  Based on the steadily declining 
volume and declining daily stochastics (technical evidence that 
CPG is overbought), we're expecting a near-term move to the $30 
level.  In terms of actual profit targets, we will take half of 
our hypothetical position off the table if CPG reaches $30.01.  
We'll close the remainder of the play if shares trade at or below 
$28.01, safely above the 200-dma ($27.29).  This level also 
roughly coincides with the 81% retracement from July 24th lows to 
July 30th highs.  In order to confirm some measure of bearish 
conviction, we won't enter this short play until CPG trades under 
today's low of $32.69.  If triggered, we'll place our stop one 
cent above today's high, at $34.11.  A slightly more aggressive 
strategy would be to use a stop just above the relative high of 
$34.40. 

For annotated chart: click here.
Chart of: Chelsea Property Group, Daily.



Picked on August xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date         08/12/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Diamonds Trust - DIA - close: 84.87 change: -2.28 stop: 87.76

Trust Description:
The Diamonds Trust is a Dow Jones tracking stock that is traded on the 
AMEX.

Why we like it:
We hate to bet against the broader market, though with recent weakness 
in the Dow, shorting the Diamonds is exactly our plan.  With bad news 
surfacing in several Dow companies, we believe the index could possibly 
falter again.  In the last week: American Express received a downgrade 
by Merrill Lynch, while AT&T has suffered with the rest of the telecom 
infrastructure stumbling.  Citigroup has had to constantly defend 
itself against allegations of wrong doing in financial matters 
concerning Enron and other corporate debacles.  The company also has 
several class action lawsuits facing it.  Coca-Cola recently announced 
that it would begin expensing stock options, which could take a 10% 
chunk out of earnings this year.  DuPont earnings declined 15% in the 
second quarter with lower chemical and plastic prices.  The company 
expects a better third quarter, but admits that it is dependent on 
overall economic conditions.  Exxon Mobile slipped lower today on poor 
earnings seven cents below consensus estimates.  The earnings failure 
by the oil giant was attributed to a weakened dollar, lacking 
downstream business, and a decline in realizations of gas prices.  GE 
also announced that it would begin expensing stock options, which will 
weight down the companies bottom line.  Intel has suffered with the 
rest of the tech sector, plagued by poor earnings and future guidance 
announcements.  IBM has taken heat by acquiring PricewaterhouseCoopers 
and unveiling a 3 billion dollar microchip plant in New York.  J.P. 
Morgan has been under constant fire in regard to its activities with 
accounting minefields such as Enron and WorldCom.  Wal-Mart said 
earlier in the week that it expected sales to come in weaker than 
expected, and has also struggled with poor consumer confidence numbers. 
Finally, Walt-Disney had a sharp drop in earnings with many Americans 
and Europeans traveling less this year.  Revenue from theme park 
admissions suffered.  Also, the company's television network, ABC, has 
struggled due to a lack of hit shows.     

On the technical side, after rallying roughly 13% from the low of last 
week, the Dow could be due for a pullback.  Using a retracement tool, 
the 8700 area coincides with the 61% Fibonacci number, potentially 
indicating temporary top.  Stochastics are in the overbought region and 
look like they could potentially cross back below the upper line.  Our 
strategy for this trade is to keep our stop reasonably tight at $87.76.  
This would be just over a 270-point move in the Dow.  Short at current 
levels, our profit target for the trade is unofficially $80.00.  We can 
anticipate support in the 84 and 83 whole numbers on the way down.  
Also of note, the 38.2% retracement (bottom up) support lies at 82.50.  
If this trade begins to work in our favor, we will observe how the Dow 
components react and move our target accordingly.  Stay tuned for 
updates, as we will be moving our stop and profit target on this trade!  
Good luck bears!  

For annotated chart: click here
Chart of: Diamonds Trust, DIA.




Picked on July 25th at $84.87 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date              NA
 



--- 

Merrill Lynch - MER - close: 34.60 change: -1.05 stop: 36.76

Company Description:
Merrill Lynch is one of the world's leading financial management 
and advisory companies, with offices in 37 countries and total 
client assets of approximately $1.4 trillion. As an investment 
bank, it is a leading global underwriter of debt and equity 
securities and strategic advisor to corporations, governments, 
institutions and individuals worldwide. (source: company press 
release)

Why We Like It:

A veritable blizzard of bad news has been swarming around Merrill 
Lynch.  From Congressional scrutiny of the firm's dealings with 
Enron, to CEO resignations (Merrill chief David Komansky is 
stepping down earlier than expected), to its association with 
Martha Stewart, it seems nary a day goes by that Merrill doesn't 
face another PR disaster.  Frankly, we're surprised that shares 
of MER haven't faired worse in recent weeks.  With the flow of 
negative news showing no signs of subsiding and the broader 
market indices looking ready to retrace their recent gains, we 
think MER is poised to head lower.  On a technical basis, bears 
should be encouraged by today's close under $35.00.  The daily 
stochastics (5,3,3) have only begun to fall from the overbought 
region, indicating more downside potential.  On a sector-related 
note, the XBD.X broker/dealer index recently sold off from short-
term resistance near 390 and is still firmly in the grasp of a 
multi-month downtrend.  We don't think the group will be staging 
a reversal anytime soon.

By shorting MER at current levels, we're aiming to capture a move 
to psychological support at $30.00.  This will necessitate a 
break under the 52-week low of $30.97.  A bounce from this level 
is entirely possible, but given the negative aura surrounding 
MER, we don't expect more than a small rebound.  Our initial stop 
is set at $36.76, safely above yesterday's high.  A slightly more 
aggressive strategy would utilize a stop above the relative high 
of $37.16.

Picked on August 1st at $34.60
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         07/16/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Hughes Supply - HUG - cls: 37.43 chg: +1.15 stop: 34.94 *new*

Godot just might show up for this trade.  Today, Homestead Small 
Company Stock Fund said that their largest holding is HUG.  The 
20 million dollar fund seeks smaller companies without investment 
banking relationships.  HUG is one of these companies, falling 
into the category of "true value stocks".  

Homestead's reiteration of Hughes ability to become a great 
company helps to reinforce our trade.  After two days of 
pullback, HUG staged a slight rally today, seeking positive 
ground.  This movement is a great display of relative strength, 
considering the broader markets closed negative for the day.  We 
are still happy to see the Stochastics gaining ground, while not 
quite in overbought territory yet.  Our profit target still 
remains at $39.70, where we will attempt to close our whole 
position.  Conservative traders could challenge this trade 
slightly, moving their stop just below yesterday's low at $35.65.  
However, the Premier newsletter will bump our stop just a bit to 
$34.94, still below the $35 support level.  New trades are not 
encouraged at this point as the trading range has narrowed, and 
pose high risk of being stopped out.   
 
Picked on July 29th at $35.01 
Results since picked:   +2.42
Earnings Date        05/21/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Multimedia Games - MGAM - close: 22.61 change: +0.54 stop: $19.94

I think I can, I think I can, MGAM is the little train that 
could.  This gaming stock has been slowly gaining ground since 
our pick on July 25th.  With earnings behind us, we would like to 
see MGAM close above the high three days ago, and resume its 
ascent with volume backed buying.  Of slight worry, the Daily 
Stochastics are in the overbought region, and could pull back.  
Although the Stochastics action does put a bit of sweat on our 
brow, we are going to leave the stop at $19.94, which is 6 cents 
below the low three days ago.  With a breakout and close above 
$23.25, our target of $24.49 could come quickly.  Keep in mind 
that the 50-dma has now descended to 23.68 and could/should be 
new resistance.  New trades could be entered above a breakout of 
this level, though it might not be the best idea, as the risk to 
reward could be much larger at that point.  Traders wishing to do 
so anyhow, would want to put a stop a penny below today's low at 
$21.84.  There is no nouveau media buzz on MGAM.

Picked on July 25th at   $20.70
Results since picked:     +1.91
Earnings Date          07/25/02 (confirmed)
 



---

United Stationers - USTR - cls: 25.45 chg: -0.14 stop: 25.20*new*

GO, GO, GO!  We stand on the sidelines cheering for this stock to 
push a little harder, while it trades in a sideways consolidation 
range.  With a lack of new news on USTR, we are left to the mercy 
of order-flow traders for price movement in this stock.  What we 
don't like is that the current pattern could be the beginning 
phase of a bear flag, which could indicate further selling.  
However, with the Stochastics mid-range, and a possible larger 
market bounce, USTR could stage a further rally.  We would like 
to see the stock close above $26.76, which is yesterdays high, 
and the high of the last four days.  If this scenario were to 
take place, the stock could make a run at our target of $28.80, 
which is well below resistance from congestion.  Just in case the 
consolidation does give in to the bears, we will move our stop up 
to $25.20, four cents below yesterday's low.  Less conservative 
traders could still put a stop below $25.00, though both 
strategies stand a good chance of getting stopped out should the 
market meet with continued weakness tomorrow.  

Picked on July 29th at $25.01 
Results since picked:   +0.44
Earnings Date        07/23/02 (confirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Alaska Air Group - ALK - close: 23.30 change: -0.20 stop: 25.06

Consolidation in a tight range has been the name of the game for 
ALK over the past two sessions.  Shares traded an Inside Day on 
Thursday and remained well under the declining 50-dma at $24.73.  
The trend of lower highs is technically encouraging for this 
play.  We also like the action in the daily stochastics (5,3,3), 
which have started falling from the overbought region.  New short 
entries can be gauged on a move under yesterday's low of $23.10.  
Our stop remains set at $25.06, above the 50-dma and 
psychological resistance at $25.00.  More conservative traders 
could use a stop slightly above yesterday's high of $24.25.  With 
no positive sector news to speak of, the XAL.X airline index has 
begun to retrace its recent gains.  A break under 50.00 would be 
decidedly bearish.

Picked on July 30th at $23.62
Results since picked:   +0.32
Earnings Date        07/22/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

DuPont - DD - close: 41.53 change: -0.38 stop: 44.26

This short play was triggered yesterday when DD fell to $41.61.  
A Dow Jones rally helped to boost shares on Wednesday afternoon, 
but this was likely a function of shorts covering positions 
before the end of the month.  The bears returned in full force 
today, hammering the Dow for a 229-point loss.  DD traded an 
Inside Day and finished in the red by 38 cents.  Shares were 
relatively strong versus the Industrials today, but we'd expect 
DD to play "catch up" if the index begins to fall towards 8000.  
Technically, the descending daily stochastics (5,3,3) support our 
bearish outlook.  Keeping in mind that the $40 level may act as 
support, new entries could be targeted on a move under 
yesterday's low of $40.84.  A failed rally at the 50-dma ($43.43) 
would also provide a possible action point to go short.

Picked on July 31st at $41.61
Results since picked:   +0.08
Earnings Date        07/24/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

Philip Morris - MO - close: 45.12 change: -0.93 stop: 47.62 *new*

 
Shares of MO surrendered 2.0% today, pressured by the Dow Jones' 
sharp decline.  The index is teetering on psychological support 
at 8500 and appears vulnerable to another round of heavy selling.  
As is usually the case when stocks start retracing large rallies, 
MO's daily stochastics have started falling from overbought 
levels.  This is a sign that MO has enough downside potential to 
reach our profit target of $42.05.  And hey, is that a short term 
double-top near $47.50?!  Sure looks like it.  This chart pattern 
doesn't inspire much confidence in nervous bulls who are already 
faced with the prospect of a retest of 8000 (or worse) on the Dow 
Jones.  At this time we're going to reduce our upside risk by 
moving our stop down to $47.62, just above the July 8th high.  
More cautious traders could probably get away with a stop 
slightly above the near-term high of $47.20.

Picked on July 25th at $46.76 
Results since picked:   +1.64
Earnings Date        07/18/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

VERITAS Corp - VRTS - close: 15.76 change: -1.07 stop: *text*

Company Description:
With 5,700 employees in 36 countries and revenue of $1.5 billion 
in 2001, VERITAS Software ranks among the top 10 software 
companies in the world. VERITAS Software is the world's leading 
storage software company, providing data protection, storage 
management, high availability and disaster recovery software to 
86 percent of the Fortune 500. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Shareholders of VRTS just can't catch a break.  The stock had 
trended lower for most of 2002, but recently found support at 
$16.00.  Shares then proceeded to rebound to the $19 level, only 
to get smacked back down again. Today's violation of the $16.00 
support level is what has earned VRTS a slot on our Play List.  
In addition to the obvious bearishness associated with a stock 
falling under critical support, this move also created a rare 
quadruple-bottom sell signal on the p-n-f chart.  According to 
Dorsey Wright, a triple-bottom breakdown in a bear market yields 
a 23% average gain over 3.4 months, 93.5% of the time.  In other 
words, odds of a continued decline are pretty good.  We don't 
have figures on a quadruple-bottom but one imagines they're very 
similar.  

While dips under support sometimes prove to be bear traps, we 
don't believe this will be the case with VRTS.  The stock has 
plenty of room to fall, as evidenced by the declining daily 
stochastics (5,3,3) and rolling MACD.  How much downside is 
possible?  Although psychological support at $15.00 may offer the 
bulls a brief reprieve, we don't anticipate more than a small 
bounce from this area.  The next level of clear historical 
support is at the $12.00 region, which acted as resistance back 
in 1998.  This coincides nicely with the current p-n-f bearish 
count of $12.50.  With these levels in mind, we're going to place 
an official profit target at $12.56.  If triggered, we'll use a 
stop of 17.36, a penny above today's high.  Note that we will not 
enter this play until VRTS trades under today's low of $15.75.  
On a sector-related side thought, the GSO.X software index 
continues to looks weak.  Last week's tech rally wasn't enough to 
boost the index over the 100 level, and the bulls have been 
punished for their lack of conviction.  A break under the all-
time low of $85.64 would likely create more selling pressure in 
VRTS.
 
Picked on August xth at $xx.xx <- see text 
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         07/16/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  -------------------- 

Human Genome Sciences - HGSI - cls: 16.86 chg: -0.47 stop: 15.49

After six consecutive positive days for HGSI, a pullback in the 
BTK.X biotech index provided the perfect excuse for some profit 
taking.  There wasn't any major sector-specific news today but 
the group seemed to be pressured by the declining NASDAQ.  HGSI 
gave back 2.7%, outperforming both the BTK.X and NASDAQ.  Bulls 
can also be encouraged by the fact this decline came on the 
lightest volume in over three weeks.  Looks like there aren't a 
whole lot of eager sellers at these levels.  P-n-f traders will 
note that HGSI has run into bearish resistance at $17.50, which 
lies under the next level of historical resistance at $18.00.  
Aggressive traders could target new entries on a move above this 
level.
 
Picked on July 30th at $17.20 
Results since picked:   -0.34
Earnings Date        07/25/02 (confirmed)





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  -------------------- 

Telecom Brasil - TBH - cls: 18.10 chg: +0.64 stop: 18.32

Brazil's beleaguered currency, the real, rebounded sharply today 
amid speculation that a $15 billion loan deal from the IMF may be 
imminent.  This development had TBH firming up and recouping some 
of its recent losses.  Shares spiked above our stop at $18.32, 
closing our play for a loss of 4.9%.  The uncertainty surrounding 
the current IMF discussions in Washington makes it very difficult 
to gauge where TBH could be headed.  Although the MACD and daily 
stochastic oscillators are beginning to curl higher, further 
negative currency news could trump this technical strength.  It's 
also possible that we could see a "sell on the news" reaction if 
the loan is granted.  Brazil's economy is still mired in turmoil, 
the country is still faced with the prospect of a socialist 
President, and their neighbor Uruguay has recently been hit with 
a similar crippling currency devaluation.  It's a big mine field 
out there, and any fresh negative developments could quickly send 
TBH tumbling to new lows.  Although we wouldn't recommend holding 
bearish positions at this time, a failed rally at $20.00 may 
provide another shorting opportunity.

Picked on July 26th at $17.45 
Results since picked:   -0.87
Earnings Date             N/A
 




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ATU     Actuant Corporation        37.85      +0.60

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

PRGX    Prg-Schultz International  11.90      +1.13
ULGX    Urologix Inc.              5.11       +1.09
ESI     Itt Educational Services   17.90      +2.15
AMLN    Amylin Pharmaceuticals     11.98      +1.11

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

HYSL    Hyperion Solutions         21.74      +1.17
PHSY    Pacificare Health Systems  25.78      +1.18
OTEX    Open Text Corp.            21.22      +2.63
CSTR    Coinstar Inc.              30.20      +2.18
CYT     Cytec Industries Inc.      29.35      +1.39

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

NKE      Nike International        47.00      -2.29
YUM      Yum! Brands inc.          28.21      -2.69
MCO      Moody's Corporation       47.45      -1.85
IHP      Ihop Corporation          25.90      -1.44

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CCBG      Capital City Bank Group      31.00      -1.57




=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright © 2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.








DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

To ensure you continue to receive email from Option Investor please add "support@optioninvestor.com"

Option Investor Inc
PO Box 630350
Littleton, CO 80163

E-Mail Format Newsletter Archives