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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 08/02/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-02-2002
                                                    section 1 of 3
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      What's black and blue and red all over?
Play-of-the-Day:  A Capital Idea!
Watch List:       Piece d'resistance!
Market Sentiment: And Finally the Dam Broke


******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
         WE 8-02          WE 7-26          WE 7-19         WE 7-12
DOW     8313.13 + 48.74  8264.39 +245.13  8019.26 -665.27  -694.97
Nasdaq  1247.92 - 14.20  1262.12 - 57.03  1319.15 - 54.35  - 74.86
S&P-100  434.05 +  7.12   426.93 +  3.83   423.10 - 35.81  - 33.75
S&P-500  864.24 + 11.40   852.84 +  5.09   847.75 - 73.64  - 67.64
W5000   8186.56 + 94.93  8091.63 +  8.63  8083.00 -628.50  -601.90
RUT      376.45 -  5.81   382.26 -  3.94   386.20 - 27.08  - 27.64
TRAN    2202.03 - 52.76  2254.79 - 77.39  2332.18 -147.96  -172.50
VIX       45.39 +  4.95    40.44 -  3.01    43.45 +  5.12  +  8.12
VXN       65.44 -  3.58    69.02 +  7.85    61.17 -  4.83  +  9.72
TRIN       1.47             1.21             1.44             0.89
Put/Call   0.93             0.70             1.14             0.64     
******************************************************************


===========
Market Wrap
===========

What's black and blue and red all over?

If you're like me and have the television or radio tuned into a 
financial program during the day, you're probably convinced by 
now that the equity markets got crushed this week.  However, when 
I completed this weeks major market averages and index 
spreadsheet, I found its colors were black (unchanged) and blue 
(up more than 1%) and red (down more than 1%) all over.

I will confess, that I want the U.S. economy to recover.  I would 
think every American would want the same.  At the same time, we 
are all here to make money and must trade whatever type of trend 
presents itself.

However, if you're a "dyed in the blue bull" or a "red in the 
head bear" this weeks rather mixed market action has bulls and 
bears looking at a rather mixed response from the markets.

Major Averages/Indexes - Weekly Changes

 

Gold stocks (XAU.X) 63.23 +1.86% was today's sector winner and 
also turned in this week's biggest gains.  Natural gas stocks as 
depicted by the Natural Gas Index (XNG.X) 128.30 -2.4% fell back 
inline with the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 864.24 -2.3%, but 
finished a close second to gold stocks for this week's biggest 
sector winner.

For the most part, the technology sectors still seem to find the 
more eager selling when "bad news" hits the markets.  This was 
quite evident this week as the tech-heavy NASDAQ-100 Index 
(NDX.X) 892.51 -2.5% lead our major index list to the downside 
this week.  Losses were offset in the NASDAQ-100 by a heavier 
weighting from the biotechs as the Biotech Index (BTK.X) 346.71 
-0.76% edged lower on the session, but gained an impressive 5.8% 
on the week.

The North American Telecom Index (XTC.X) 341.86 -1.27% traded 
fractionally lower today, but turned in what looks to have been a 
short-covering rally in the telecom service providers (AT, BCE, 
BLS, FON, Q, SBC, VZ).  On Wednesday, Verizon (NYSE:VZ) $31.98 
+1.97% reported Q2 earnings of $0.77 per share (excluding 
charges, with charges, would have lost $2.1 billion), which was 
in line with consensus, but not as bad as many had feared.  
However, the telecom equipment stocks (LU, NT), which also 
comprise the XTC.X fell on Verizon's announcement that it plans 
to cut purchases of networking gear to as low as $13 billion this 
year from as much as $15 billion under its previous estimate.

I don't know about you, but I've lost track of the number of 
times that the various telecom service providers have cut their 
capital expenditure in recent months/quarters.

With the recent economic news showing a slower growing economy, 
Fitch Ratings cut its grade on SBC Communications' (NYSE:SBC) 
$27.55 +0.36% long-term debt to negative from stable.  Fitch 
cited concerns about sluggish sales growth, a decline in phone 
lines and the effects of tough competition.

My view on the telecom and telecom-related sectors remains that 
I'd rather place a $100 bet on "red 25" at the roulette table 
than put a $100 bullish bet in this group of stocks right now.  
If for some reason any of the telecom-service providers were to 
rally back into some overhead supply, I'd be looking to short 
these stocks and target new 52-week lows.

Currently I'm not looking for strong Q3 GDP

I'm not an economist, but I do believe the MARKET is very good at 
forecasting the economy.  One host on CNBC had the "nerve" to 
question if the MARKET was any good at forecasting anything, or 
if the MARKET is dependent on all the economic news we have been 
bombarded with lately.

I've taken the bulk of the recent GDP data from the past 5 GDP 
reports.  Remember, that the recently reported Q2 numbers are 
preliminary and they will be revised somewhat.

I've also taken the 2002 Q2 and 2002 Q1 major market index and 
some of the more economically sensitive sector performances from 
the past 3 quarters and placed a "Q3?", "Q2?" and "Q1?" column 
heading above them as if to pose the question, "Are these 
averages/indexes good at predicting forward changes in GDP or the 
economy?"  

Recent 5 quarters of GDP data - Recent 3 quarters MARKET changes



One could argue that the strong MARKET performance (NYSE +8.5%) 
from Q4 was a precursor to the strong Q1 GDP data (+5.0%).  One 
could also argue that the gradual drop off (NYSE +1.9%) was a 
precursor to the recently reported Q2 GDP data (+1.1%).  In the 
2nd quarter of this year, the NYSE fell -11.2% and I'd argue that 
we probably shouldn't be surprised if next quarter's GDP data is 
anything to write home about.

Now this doesn't mean the MARKET doesn't look at and fine tune 
its scenarios and vote with dollars (buying and selling) as it 
gets the economic data, but to think that next quarter's GDP data 
is going to be strong would be a stretch of the imagination.

I would NOT argue with anyone that the MARKET at times OVERLY 
DISCOUNTS or prices in PREMIUMS in stocks as it relates to the 
economy on a forward looking basis.  In fact, I'd say the NASDAQ 
Composite or NASDAQ-100 does a very good job of that as depicted 
by the more excessive gains and losses found between quarters.

Within the GDP numbers, there are many interesting comparisons 
that can be made.  Note that exports rose 11.7% in the recently 
completed Q2, while the US $ Index fell -10.5%.  You'll see that 
the Net Exports continued to fall however as a 23.5% gain in 
imports from a still rather hungry U.S. consumer gobbled up 
foreign products.  As noted from a prior economists observations, 
it takes time for U.S. consumers to realize that they're dollar 
is weaker and the foreign products they're used to 
consuming/purchasing are more expensive on a RELATIVE basis to 
similar goods made here in the U.S.  Theory has it that 
eventually the consumer will switch from the more expensive 
imported good to the domestically produced good.

I still think (and the recent increase in exports perhaps support 
my thinking) that the multi-national companies should be the 
first groups of companies to benefit from the weakening U.S. 
Dollar that we've seen in the recently completed Q2.

The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) 466.41 -4.43% got 
drilled today and was down -1.9% on the week.  Our play list 
currently has profiled fellow cyclical Du Pont (NYSE:DD) $39.09 
-5.87% as bearish and this play has worked very much in the favor 
of a bear in recent sessions.  However, we would advise traders 
to trade the target outlined in our play write-up.  While the 
cyclicals have seen some downside in recent weeks, their RELATIVE 
out performance in an otherwise downward trending market should 
be understood.

As long as a trader is seeing some bearish gains from the 
cyclicals, it is my opinion that other sectors (multitude of 
technology) will still be waiting to see any type of increase in 
IT spending.

I think it was Barton Biggs of Morgan Stanley that made some very 
interesting comments today regarding productivity and capacity 
utilization levels as it relates to corporation's NOT needing to 
spend on new capital equipment.  This is something I hadn't 
thought of, even though we've noted in the past that corporations 
are running very efficiently at the production level, and that 
there's plenty of capacity still to be utilized.

My focus has been that these efficiencies and still plenty of 
capacity were reasons for the lack of inflation.  However, Barton 
Biggs' comments regarding future capital expenditure increases 
should be noted.

In a way, this does play into some of my past thoughts on how 
many technology-related stocks are perhaps still a long way off 
from seeing any type of "ramp up" in capital expenditure spending 
from the more economically sensitive cyclicals.

Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index Chart - Daily Interval



While we have stated that the "cyclicals might lead a recovery" 
that didn't necessarily mean we would look to short the right 
opportunity.  When the CYC.X found resistance at our 50% 
retracement, that sent us looking for a weak stock in the group 
with similar technicals.

Du Pont Chart - Daily Interval



There are some striking similarities between Du Pont's chart and 
that found in the Cyclical Index.  That's not surprising as 
"groups" or "like" stocks trade very similar.  It's going to be 
"close" to have Du Pont trade our bearish target.  I like to draw 
my upward trends a little more "aggressive" and tie them to 
closes of a stock or index when I'm shorting.  The "close" of a 
stock's price action can be some determined level that an 
institution is willing to buy as long as the stock fits their 
"valuation" or fits their scenario of an economy.  

As it relates to setting a target and trading that target 
(willing to take a profit if target is achieved) I feel that is 
the best way to trade.  Sure, I've seen stocks blow through a 
target to the downside.  I've also seen them hit a target, then 
reverse course and a final top or bottom was found.

However, I would think (as I have for months), if the more 
economically sensitive cyclicals falter and trade lower, then 
there's some tech and even some telecom stocks that have yet to 
see their lows and a bearish trader doesn't need to fret that 
he/she may have locked in a gain too soon.  No sir!  A bear that 
locks in gains too soon has cash at his/her disposal and its on 
to the next trade.  An this weeks 7.9% gain in the North American 
Telecom Index (XTC.X) may give a bear yet another opportunity to 
short a rally in that group, especially if the Cyclicals continue 
lower.

Jeff Bailey


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH)
=========================
(( new Active Trader short play ))

Alliance Capital Holding - AC - close: 28.00 change: -1.40 stop: 
30.01

Company Description:
Alliance Holding owns approximately 30% of the units of limited 
partnership interest in Alliance Capital. AXA Financial, Inc. 
owns approximately 2% of the outstanding Alliance Holding Units 
and approximately 52% of the outstanding Alliance Capital Units, 
representing an approximate 53% economic interest in Alliance 
Capital. AXA Financial, Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of AXA, 
one of the largest global financial services organizations. 
(Source: company press release)

Why we like it:

The trend is your friend.  The bear market has definitely not 
been friendly to this financial company, which is off 37% from 
April 21st, 2002.  The stock had been looking weak before the 
sell-off, but had somehow managed to stay reasonably stable.  
After April, the slide in the Dow helped to kick the feet out 
from underneath AC.  Trading with a clearly identifiable 
descending trend-line, AC depicts a very negative tone.  The 
stock attempted to rebound off the July 24th low with the rest of 
the market, but continued to fail as it once again bounced off 
descending resistance.  

This stock looks as if it could really dump, so we're going short 
at current levels.  Our initial profit target is $25.05, though 
if this stock begins to fade with volume we will potentially move 
our stop down accordingly.  We anticipate support in the $27.50 
area and then in the $26.50 region.  On our behalf, the recent 
failure at $30.00 could help to promote resistance if the trade 
begins to move against us.  However, if the stock does begin to 
gain strength we will exit our position when the stock hits 
$30.01.  We are encouraged to see the Stochastics and RSI 
attempting to fall out of the overbought region with the current 
selling pressure.     


For annotated chart: click here
Chart of: Alliance Capital Holding, AC.

 

Picked on August 2nd at: $28.00 
Gain since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date          07/23/02
 





==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

ASA Ltd - ASA - close: 29.00 change: +1.02

WHAT TO WATCH: Here's one for all you gold bugs!  The XAU.X 
gold/silver index moved nicely higher this week and hit a 
relative high on Friday.  This may have been a result of nervous 
investors shifting their assets to the relatively "safe haven" 
that precious metals provide.  While its worth noting that gold 
did not see the usual defensive buying during the most recent 
market decline, ASA has traded counter to the Dow Jones and 
posted solid gains during the last two sessions.  Traders willing 
to brave possible resistance at $30.00 can consider bullish 
entries at current levels.  A continued broader market decline 
could yield a move to the 50-dma at $33.28.  On a related note, 
check out the action in gold futures (gc02z).  The successful 
test of the 200-dma and rising oscillators look pretty darn 
bullish!




---

Entergy Corp - ETR - close: 39.53 change: -0.47

WHAT TO WATCH: ETR may have been overdue for a relief rally after 
falling from $42 to $32 in just two weeks, and that's exactly 
what happened during the last week of July.  Shares traded 
sharply higher with the UTY.X utility sector index and ran 
headlong into the 200-dma at $41.10.  The subsequent failure to 
move above this moving average appears to have offered a good 
shorting opportunity.  In light of today's close under 
psychological support at $40.00, bearish entries can be evaluated 
at current levels.




---

Lockheed Martin - LMT - close: 61.78 change: -1.59

WHAT TO WATCH: Defense contractors performed well during the 
first half of 2002, bolstered by speculation that the U.S. would 
be attacking Iraq in an effort to unseat Saddam Hussein.  The war 
drums have been growing louder in recent months with hawkish 
language from the White House and the leak of attack plans.  
However, an armed conflict with Iraq seems a little less certain 
after this week.  There is a growing contingent of Congressional 
Democrats who are opposed to any military action against Hussein.  
This will make it very difficult for President Bush to carry out 
an attack.  Additionally, Iraq has recently shown some degree of 
willingness to let U.N. inspectors into the country.  We believe 
this will create downward pressure in the defense sector.  On a 
technical basis, LMT looks prone to some heavy selling.  The 
stock recently bumped off the 50-dma ($64.15) and looks like it 
may retrace a large chunk of its late-July rally.  Short 
positions can be gauged on a move under today's low of $60.95.  
A near-term move to the 200-dma ($55.77) would not be out of the 
question if the broader market continues its losing ways.




---

Teva Pharmaceutical - TEVA - close: 65.53 change: -1.97

WHAT TO WATCH: After hitting a low of $57.56 on July 24th, shares 
of TEVA rallied sharply with the DRG.X pharmaceutical index and 
shot all the way up to solid resistance at $68.  We believe 
today's sell-off from that level is the beginning of a more 
severe decline that could see TEVA move back to its 200-dma 
($60.37).  Subsequent failed rallies at $68.00 can be used as 
bearish entry points.  Traders can also target a break under 
today's low of $65.35, but be aware that shares may firm up near 
the 50-dma ($64.19).  With the daily stochastics just beginning 
their decline from the overbought region, we wouldn't expect more 
than a small bounce from this level.




---

Telefones De Mexico - TMX - close: 27.49 change: -0.89

WHAT TO WATCH: Some telecom stocks have shown signs of firming up 
over the past week, but that certainly isn't the case with TMX.  
Shares broke through key support at $28.00 today and fell to a 
new multi-year low.  The downtrending oscillators and lack of 
immediate underlying support does not bode well for the bulls.  
We would not be surprised to see a test of the $25.00 within the 
next few sessions.  Short entries can be evaluated at current 
levels, with a stop just above today's high at $28.60.




--- 

Westwood One - WON - close: 30.05 change: -0.66

WHAT TO WATCH: Media stocks don't seem to be attracting much 
buying attention lately, what will all the accounting concerns 
surrounding AOL and V.  WON isn't a huge conglomerate like the 
aforementioned stocks, but is still suffering from a prolonged 
decline.  Shares saw some rapid gains during the last week of 
July but were unable to overcome resistance at $32.00.  Now that 
WON has begun to retrace its recent rally, traders may want to 
consider shorting the stock on a move under today's low of 
$29.70.  The lack of any clear support levels creates the 
possibility that WON could quickly revisit the $25 level.





------------
RADAR SCREEN
------------ 

AIG - The recent rollover from the 50-dma at $63.85 looks like a 
good time to go short.  Entries could be targeted under today's 
low ($59.36), targeting a move to the $50-$55 region.

AMAT - Negative news from KLAC has pushed AMAT under support at 
$14.00.  Watch for a break below the multi-year low at $13.14 
(also today's low), which would clear the way for a move to the 
$10-$12 region.

HD - The RLX.X retail index has resumed its multi-month downtrend 
and HD is in danger of falling below its 52-week low at $27.25.  
A move under this level could provide aggressive traders with an 
opportunity to go short.

JNJ - JNJ is sitting on some huge gains and still must contend 
with overhead resistance at the 50-dma ($53.98).  Today's 
relative strength may fade if the Dow continues to decline.

SEBL - Shares hit a new multi-year low on Friday.  With 
oscillators well above oversold levels, it wouldn't be surprising 
to see the $5.00 level tested in the near future.  Short 
positions can be considered on a break below today's low ($8.46). 


================
Market Sentiment
================

And Finally the Dam Broke

by Steven Price

The third day in a row of disappointing news seems to have 
finally broken the bulls.  The unemployment rate remained 
unchanged in July, adding 6,000 new jobs.  The expectation, 
however, was for between 60,000 and 68,000 new jobs to be added 
for the month. Factory orders were down 2.4%, versus expectations 
of a 1.7% decrease, which is the biggest drop in seven months.  
Total hours worked in the economy fell by 0.6%, reaching the 
lowest level in three years.  The average workweek was 34 hours, 
which I'm sure makes everyone a little jealous (those with jobs 
and those without).   A couple of less talked about statistics, 
which usually hold up in an improving economy, are overtime hours 
and temporary jobs, which both fell.

The good news is in the June statistics, which showed personal 
income up 0.6%, more than the expected 0.4%, and the biggest gain 
since July 2000.  Personal expenditures were up 0.5% and 
disposable personal income was also up, by 0.7%.  Consumer 
spending was up 0.5%, just under expectations of 0.6%.  Consumer 
spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy, may not 
be able to sustain growth, however, as hours worked go down and 
unemployment holds steady.

This combination of the third day in a row of disappointing 
economic numbers drove the Dow down over 300 points intraday, and 
through support levels of 8500 and 8400. An end of day rally 
brought the Dow back to finish at 8313.13, down 193.49.  After 
this week's earlier rally, investors appeared to be in a hurry to 
take profits, rather than wait to see if the Dow retests its 
recent lows in the 7500 range.  While this double dip may provide 
evidence of a real bottom, if we rebound again, no investor wants 
to be around for the ride down.  The interesting thing about the 
precipitous drops of the last two days are that, despite the 
feeling that the Dow has gone into the tank, we finished the week 
higher by 48.74.  While this week's rally did not hold, last 
week's is still safe.  At least until Monday morning.

In late 1997, from October through the following January, the 
market reached into the 7400s, before rebounding to a level over 
9000.  It then double dipped back into the 7500s the following 
August, before beginning its rise to 11,500.  So there is 
precedent for the double dip theory in this range.

The semiconductor sector continues to drop, this time after a 
warning from National Semiconductor (NSM) last night, stating 
that revenues will remain flat in the fourth quarter due to weak 
demand in the personal computer market.  NSM joined a host of 
other companies that supply the PC market and have lowered 
guidance due to weak demand.  The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 
reached its third 52-week low in the last three days.

This showed up in the Nasdaq Composite, which looks headed back 
to 1200.  The Nasdaq rolled down from its 21-dma of 1346 on 
Wednesday.  it traded as high as 1354.48, before giving up over 
100 points from that level, in two days, to finish the week at 
1247.92.  However, as noted earlier with the Dow, it finished 
very close to where it began the week, off just 15 points.


Disney reported a 7% decline in earnings and warned of worse 
conditions ahead. While the entertainment giant met earnings 
expectations, poor theme park attendance led to a corporate 
credit downgrade by Standard & Poor's.  Disney's 9% drop to 
$15.31 weighed on other travel and leisure stocks as well.

Next week may produce a "dead cat bounce" from Thursday's and 
Friday's sell-off.  However, it is hard to imagine a continued 
rebound in the overall markets after the amount of disappointing 
economic news this week. A shrinking economy is not good news for 
stocks, and although the bulls were able to forge ahead earlier 
in the week, eventually the bad news overwhelmed.  


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10679
52-week Low :  7702
Current     :  8313

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8307
 50-dma: 9125
200-dma: 9769

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1226
52-week Low :  797
Current     :  864

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  861
 50-dma:  967
200-dma: 1082

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1766
52-week Low :  869
Current     :  892

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  931
 50-dma: 1057
200-dma: 1366


-----------------------------------------------------------------


The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X):  This section of the newsletter 
has been dominated lately by news of the semiconductor index. 
While there are many other sectors worth reporting on, there has 
been a steady stream of news emanating from these companies which 
weighs on the overall market.  As the tech sector led the bull 
market of the 90s, it has led the bear market of the last couple 
of years.  

National Semiconductor (NSM) issued a warning on Thursday, a 
month before its quarter ends, stating that it now expects sales 
to be flat for the quarter.  It had previously predicted sales 
would rise 6%-8%.  It blamed its lack of sales on weak order 
rates for personal computers, as other PC related chip companies 
have done in recent weeks.  This led the SOX to another 52-week 
low. The index broke its 300 level of support, trading as low as 
295.20, before rallying late to finish back over 300.  Until 
there is good news from someone in the sector, we can expect to 
see this index continue its steady decline.  If the tech sector 
continues to lead the overall market, this does not foreshadow a 
recovery anytime soon.

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 301
Current     : 301

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 331
 50-dma: 398
200-dma: 505


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The Market Volatility Index spiked back close to 50 intraday, 
reaching a high of 48.97.  The drop in the Dow and S&P once again 
triggered a surge in premium, however the end of day rally 
brought it down a few points.  There were also most likely 
sellers looking to capitalize on weekend time decay, selling 
options on Friday afternoon.  As premiums increase, time decay 
does as well, so the bet some traders make is that the movement 
of the market on Monday will not be so great as to overwhelm the 
premium decay they gain over three days on short options.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 45.39 +3.90
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 65.44 +5.09

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.93        561,537       524,267
Equity Only    0.67        436,492       294,358
OEX            1.27         36,024        45,741
QQQ            0.44         53,626        23,703

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          30      + 0     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    28      - 3     Bull Confirmed
DOW           20      - 3     Bull Alert
S&P 500       26      - 2     Bull Alert
S&P 100       25      - 2     Bull Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.21
10-Day Arms Index  1.22
21-Day Arms Index  1.27
55-Day Arms Index  1.36

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE        839          2289
NASDAQ      911          2236

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         19             106
NASDAQ       61             218

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,811
NASDAQ   1,405

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/30/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials added significantly to their long positions.  While 
contracts were added on both sides, 25,000 were added to the 
longs, while only 11,000 were added to the short side.  Small 
Traders reduced both positions, however reduced long positions by 
an additional 6,000 contracts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
07/09/02      396,321   456,164   (59,843)   (7.0%)
07/16/02      388,943   464,162   (75,219)   (8.8%)
07/23/02      405,969   471,704   (65,735)   (7.5%)
07/30/02      430,833   482,957   (52,124)   (5.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/09/02      145,017    71,402    73,615     34.0%
07/16/02      157,370    67,247    90,123     40.1%
07/23/02      166,713    73,778    92,935     38.6%
07/30/02      153,858    67,451    86,407     39.0%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Commercials added 4,000 short contracts to their positions, while 
adding only 1,000 long contracts.  Small Traders reduced short 
positions by 2,000 contracts, while adding less than 500 to their 
long contracts, for a 2,000 long contract increase overall.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
07/09/02       31,227     39,592    (8,725) (12.3%)
07/16/02       33,152     39,866    (6,714) ( 9.2%)
07/23/02       37,204     43,601    (6,397) ( 8.0%)
07/30/02       38,163     47,343    (9,180) (10.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
07/09/02       12,520     8,348     4,175     20.0%
07/16/02       12,816    10,774     2,042      8.7%
07/23/02       12,756    11,152     1,604      6.7%
07/30/02       13,159     9,237     3,922     17.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials kept their long positions approximately the same, 
while reducing their short positions by almost 2,000 contracts.  
Small Traders reduced both long and short positions dramatically.  
They reduced their long position by 2400 contracts and short 
position by almost 4,000 contracts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/09/02       20,761    14,122    6,639     19.0%
07/16/02       20,357    14,074    6,283     18.2%
07/23/02       22,369    14,745    7,624     20.5%
07/30/02       22,429    12,811    9,618     27.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
07/09/02        6,831     6,623       208     1.50%
07/16/02        8,524    10,133    (1,609)   (8.62%)
07/23/02        9,101    12,604    (3,503)   (16.1%)
07/30/02        6,778     8,999    (2,221)   (14.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-02-2002
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
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In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Plays:     XLNX
  Bearish Play Updates:  CYMI, PIXR

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     AC, AZO, PENN
  Bearish Play Updates:  ALK, CPG, DD, DIA, MER, MO
  Closed Bullish Plays:  HUG, MGAM, USTR

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  HGSI
  Bearish Play Updates:  VRTS
                        

=================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
=================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Xilinx - XLNX - close: 17.41 close: -0.84 stop: *text*

Trust Description:
Xilinx is the leading supplier of complete programmable logic 
solutions, including advanced integrated circuits, software 
design tools, predefined system functions delivered as 
intellectual property cores, and unparalleled field engineering 
support. Founded in 1984 and headquartered in San Jose, Calif., 
Xilinx invented the field programmable gate array (FPGA) and 
fulfills more than half of the world demand for these devices 
today. Xilinx solutions enable customers to reduce significantly 
the time required to develop products for the computer, 
peripheral, telecommunications, networking, industrial control, 
instrumentation, aerospace, defense, low power portable, and 
consumer markets. (source: company press release)

Why we like it:
Bears who were looking for fresh evidence of a continued downturn 
in the semiconductor sector must've been pretty happy with this 
week's developments.  The first blows came on Tuesday when NVDA 
lowered Q2 guidance and KLAC announced lower than expected Q4 
revenue.  Granted, KLAC also that they were "confident a recovery 
is underway", but they prefaced that statement with the admission 
that the company was entering into a flat period.  With no 
tangible signs of a recovery, nervous investors were left with no 
choice but to sell.  The semi group received another blow on 
Thursday evening when NSM cut its Q1 outlook.  This news 
(combined with another sharp decline on the NASDAQ) was enough to 
push the SOX.X semiconductor index under critical support at 300.  
Although the SOX closed at 301, the negative oscillators are 
hinting at even more downside.  

There's an abundance of possible
 shorts in the chip sector, but we think XLNX looks especially 
attractive.  The stock gave back 4.6% today and pegged a new 
multi-year low of $16.96.   Technically, bears can be encouraged 
by the declining daily stochastics and double-bottom breakdown on 
the p-n-f chart.  With both the stock and the SOX.X lacking any 
immediate underlying support levels, we think XLNX could reach 
the $15.00 region in short order.   Note, however, that this play 
won't be activated until XLNX trades under today's low of $16.96.  
This will eliminate the risk of a bounce from possible whole-
number support at $17.00.  If triggered, our stop will be placed 
at $18.31, slightly above today's high.  More aggressive traders 
may want to use a stop above Thursday's high at $19.61.

Picked on August xth at $xx.xx <-- see text 
Gain since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date         07/18/02 (confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cymer Inc. - CYMI - close: 25.34 change: -1.50 stop: 28.25 *new*

With the Semiconductor Industry Association commenting that chip 
sales in June fell 0.2%, the $SOX.X displayed more weakness 
today.  In response, Morgan Stanley cut its growth forecast on 
the chip sector; also causing weakness was a gloomy forecast of 
future earnings by National Semiconductor (NYSE:NSM).  
Previously, we mentioned that we would like to see the $SOX.X 
break down through 304.45.  This event occurred today, re-
assuring our trade of broader sector weakness, though we would 
like to now see the $SOX.X close below 300.

Although still a bit far away, we will keep our profit target at 
$22.51.  However, at this point we would like to "challenge" this 
trade with a stop at $28.25, which is just slightly above recent 
relative resistance.  Chart readers will note that technicals 
continue to deteriorate and the MACD just produced another 
bearish crossover.  We will continue to look for bad news in the 
chip sector to weaken this trade further. 

Picked on July 26th at $27.55
Change since picked:    +2.21
Earnings Date        07/22/02 (confirmed)




---

Pixar Animation - PIXR - cls: 42.75 chg: -0.91 stop: 44.25*new*

*TRIGGERED PLAY*

We were triggered in Pixar this morning when the stock dropped 
below our entry point of $43.58.  Today's negative price action 
could potentially be attributed to broader market weakness, and 
bad news related to Disney yesterday.   Pixar Animation displayed 
good trading action for shorts, as the stock slowly traded down 
during the day.  As anticipated the stock started to level out 
just above the $42.50 area, finding support around $42.65.  
Because this play has immediately begun to work in our favor, we 
would like to waste no time in quickly "challenging" the trade.  
Our new stop will be just above the high on July 31st, at $44.25.  
Although moving the stop close to our current range does put our 
position at risk of being stopped out, we are making the move to 
protect our principal.  Traders who do not mind accepting more 
risk can leave the original stop at $45.01.  

Picked on August 2nd at $43.58
Gain   since picked:     +0.83
Earnings Date         08/08/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Alliance Capital Holding - AC - close: 28.00 change: -1.40 stop: 30.01

Company Description:
Alliance Holding owns approximately 30% of the units of limited 
partnership interest in Alliance Capital. AXA Financial, Inc. 
owns approximately 2% of the outstanding Alliance Holding Units 
and approximately 52% of the outstanding Alliance Capital Units, 
representing an approximate 53% economic interest in Alliance 
Capital. AXA Financial, Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of AXA, 
one of the largest global financial services organizations. 
(Source: company press release)

Why we like it:
The trend is your friend.  The bear market has definitely not been 
friendly to this financial company, which is off 37% from April 21st,
2002.  The stock had been looking weak before the sell-off, but had 
somehow managed to stay reasonably stable.  After April, the slide in 
the Dow helped to kick the feet out from underneath AC.  Trading with a 
clearly identifiable descending trend-line, AC depicts a very negative 
tone.  The stock attempted to rebound off the July 24th low with the 
rest of the market, but continued to fail as it once again bounced off 
descending resistance.  

This stock looks as if it could really dump, so we're going short at
 current levels.  Our initial profit target is $25.05, though if this 
stock begins to fade with volume we will potentially move our stop down 
accordingly.  We anticipate support in the $27.50 area and then in the 
$26.50 region.  On our behalf, the recent failure at $30.00 could help 
to promote resistance if the trade begins to move against us.  However, 
if the stock does begin to gain strength we will exit our position when 
the stock hits $30.01.  We are encouraged to see the Stochastics and 
RSI attempting to fall out of the overbought region with the current 
selling pressure.     

For annotated chart: click here
Chart of: Alliance Capital Holding, AC.




Picked on August 2nd at: $28.00 
Gain since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date          07/23/02
 



---

Auzozone Inc. - AZO - close: 67.96 change: -3.13 stop: 71.01

Company Description:
AutoZone sells auto and light truck parts, chemicals and 
accessories through 3,037 AutoZone stores in 44 states plus the 
District of Columbia in the U.S. and 23 AutoZone stores in 
Mexico, and automotive diagnostic and repair software through 
ALLDATA, diagnostic and repair information through 
alldatadiy.com, and auto and light truck parts through 
AutoZone.com. AutoZone stock is traded on the New York Stock 
Exchange and is included in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. 
(Source: company press release)

Why we like it:

Examining the stock on a year to date basis, AZO looks like a 
strong performer...But we think some profit-taking could be in 
the cards.  With a weakening Dow, the drop under the 200-dma 
could cause this stock to fumble.    

First, the bears should be encouraged by AutoZone's recent 
failure at the 200-dma.  The average currently sits at 70.17, 
roughly two points above where the stock is now.  The rebound 
rally off of the July 24th low carried itself directly into the 
50-dma; where it failed right on queue.  The Stochastics also 
trended into overbought territory, and have recently fallen out 
of the upper region. Other than the Auto Sales numbers yesterday, 
AZN has no noteworthy news in the last few days which would 
affect the stocks performance.  Further, we do not have to worry
about earnings, as the company does not report until September.  

Short at current levels, out plan for this trade is fairly 
simple.  Our initial stop is at $71.01, 16 cents above today's 
high and one penny above the psychological whole number.  Of 
course, if the stock begins to move in our direction, we will 
immediately trail our stop down to protect our position from 
unnecessary losses.  The profit target for this short trade is 
$61.05, slightly above support and 5 cents above the whole 
number.  Our reasoning behind inserting a nickel above $61.00 is 
that other traders will be trying to exit at the whole number.  
This way, we could presumably beat the crowd to the punch.  

For annotated chart: click here
Chart of: Autozone Inc., AZO.



Picked on July 25th at $67.96 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        09/24/02
 



--- 

Penn National Gaming - PENN - close: 14.95 change: -0.98 stop: 16.11

Company Description:
Penn National Gaming owns and operates Charles Town Races in 
Charles Town, West Virginia, which presently features 2,587 
gaming machines (with approval to offer 3,500 machines); two 
Mississippi casinos, the Casino Magic hotel, casino, golf resort 
and marina in Bay St. Louis and the Boomtown Biloxi casino in 
Biloxi; the Casino Rouge, a riverboat gaming facility in Baton 
Rouge, Louisiana and the Bullwhackers properties in Black Hawk, 
Colorado. Penn National also owns two racetracks and eleven off-
track wagering facilities in Pennsylvania and the racetrack at 
Charles Town Races in West Virginia, and operates the Casino 
Rama, a gaming facility located approximately 90 miles north of 
Toronto, Canada, pursuant to a management contract. (Source: 
company press release)

Why we like it:
To begin, traveling has become apparently slow in America with 
Disney recently warning on earnings, citing poor amusement park 
admissions.  It's not that we think PENN is in the same sector as
Disney, though with an overall decrease in consumer confidence 
and leisure travel, this company's bottom line could eventually 
suffer.  Incidentally, other similar companies such as: CHDN, 
TRAK, PNK, TRK, ISCA, and MIEC have also showed weakness by 
slippage in their stock prices.

Our technical analysis behind this position reveals several 
things.  First and foremost, we immediately identify the failure 
at the 200-dma.  This is an important institutional benchmark, 
and reveals potential weakness in this stock.  Second, PENN also 
failed at the 50-dma, which turned out to be substantial 
resistance.  Further, the Stochastics look as if they are turning 
down from the overbought region, potentially signaling buyer 
disinterest.  Also, the Relative Strength Indicator is also 
turning down from the overbought region as well.  The recent 
relative range that the stock was trading in was broken today 
with the move below the $15.25 area.  This breach of support 
could bring additional sellers off the fence.  We are also 
encouraged by the failure of psychological support at $15.00, 
which could prove to be useful resistance in the future.

To ensure that we keep a tight hold on this position, our initial 
stop will be at $16.11, one penny above Monday's high.  With our 
hypothetical position short at current levels, our initial target 
is $12.06.  On the way down, we anticipate support in the $14-
14.50 area, along with $13.75 as well.  Assuming the position 
moves in our direction, we will adjust our stop accordingly.  
However, our loss potential is 7.8% if PENN doesn't cooperate and 
our current stop is hit.    

For annotated chart: click here
Chart of: Penn National Gaming, PENN.




Picked on July 25th at $14.95 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        07/25/02
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Alaska Air - ALK - close: 22.20 change: -1.10 stop: 24.01 *new*

Excellent!  There's the breakdown we were looking for.  ALK was 
hit for a 4.7% loss today when shares broke out of the recent 
tight consolidation range.  Pressuring ALK (and the entire 
airline sector) was news that UAL had hired bankruptcy attorneys 
after the 9/11 attacks.  Shares of the beleaguered company fell 
more than 20% on the news.  Although the $20 level presents a 
good exit target for ALK, we believe shares could eventually 
reach the September lows near $17.50.  Today's selling came on 
relatively strong volume, and the daily stochastics are pointing 
towards further downside.  New entries can be considered on a 
break under today's low ($21.47) or a rollover near $23.50.  Note 
that we're tightening our stop to $24.01, slightly above 
Thursday's high.  More cautious traders may want to use a stop 
just above today's high of $23.43. 
 
Picked on July 30th at $23.62
Results since picked:   +1.42
Earnings Date        07/22/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

Chelsea Property - CPG - close: 32.00 change: -0.85 stop: 34.11

CPG followed the broader market lower on Friday and continued to 
distance itself from near-term resistance at $34.  This action is 
just what we'd expect from a stock that is technically 
overextended.  Our play was triggered early in the morning when 
shares hit our entry trigger at $32.68.  The oscillators are 
hinting at continued weakness, with the daily stochastics 
pointing lower and MACD beginning to curl level out near the 
baseline.  We also like how the volume has begun to tick higher 
after steadily declining during the recent rally.  New entries 
can be gauged on a failed rally near $33.00 or a break under the 
50-dma at $31.73, which acted as support on Friday.  Although our 
stop is currently set at $34.11, more conservative traders may 
want to use a stop just above today's high of $33.00.
 
Picked on August 2nd at $32.68
Gain since picked:       +0.68
Earnings Date         08/12/02 (confirmed)




---

DuPont - DD - close: 39.09 change: -2.44 stop: 42.32 *new*

In the most recent update this play, we discussed the likelihood 
that DD would not be able to maintain its recent trend of 
relative strength if the Dow Jones kept falling.  Our bearish 
outlook was realized today when DD underperformed the Dow and 
posted a 5.8% loss.  With the MACD beginning to curl lower and 
shares closing under psychological support at $40.00, a continued 
decline appears likely.  Given this development, we think its 
time to institute an official exit price.  We'll close this play 
if shares trade at or below $37.01.  More aggressive traders 
could target a move to the $34 region (near the September lows), 
but we'll be satisfied to close this play slightly above the July 
low of $36.30.  We're also going to tighten our stop to $42.32, 
just above yesterday's high.  Traders looking for new entries can 
consider shorting failed rallies near $40.00.

Picked on July 31st at $41.61
Results since picked:   +2.52
Earnings Date        07/24/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

Diamonds Trust - DIA - close: 83.20 change: -1.67 stop: 87.76

The bulls never had a chance.  The Dow Jones was weak from the 
get-go this morning, as the latest round of economic news 
provided more ammunition for the "double-dip recession" crowd.  
Today's July non-farm payrolls showed a gain of only 6,000 jobs, 
considerably less than the consensus estimate of 68,000.  Total 
hours worked dropped 0.6% to the lowest level since October.    
Also weighing on the Dow were hefty declines in DD, GE, HPQ, and 
DIS.  In fact, Disney dropped more than 9% after the Mouse House 
announced an earnings warning yesterday.  When all was said and 
done, the Industrials had suffered another triple-point loss.  
The index did manage to pare its losses after bouncing from the 
8200 level, but we don't expect this rebound to last through 
Monday's session.  The absence of any positive business news 
(economic or otherwise) and falling daily stochastics (5,3,3), 
lead us to believe that the Dow will retest the 8000 level 
sometime next week.  Traders may want to consider closing their 
positions if the DIA bounces from $80.00.  New entries can be 
considered on rollovers from $85.00 or a break under $82.00.  
Note that our entry price has been adjusted to reflect the small 
gap lower this morning.

Picked on July 25th at $84.70
Gain since picked:      +1.50
Earnings Date:            N/A




---

Merrill Lynch - MER - close: 33.42 change: -1.18 stop: 36.76

No news continued to be bad news on Friday, as MER underperformed 
the Dow and posted a 3.4% loss.  There weren't any new reports of 
questionable dealings with bankrupt companies, but that didn't 
prevent the bears from taking the stock to a new short-term low 
of $33.00.  Technically, MER continues to look like it will 
retest its July 24th low of $30.97:  The daily stochastics are 
plummeting and the p-n-f chart has reversed into a column of 
"O's."  Although we're keeping our stop set at $36.76, 
conservative traders may want to use a stop just above 
yesterday's high of $35.60.  Short-term traders can target new 
entries on a move under today's low, while others may want to 
wait for a rollover near $35.00.

Picked on August 1st at $34.30
Results since picked:    +0.88
Earnings Date         07/16/02 (confirmed)




---

Philip Morris - MO - close: 45.21 change: +0.09 stop: 47.62
 
Big MO closed the week on a volatile note as shares traded in a 
relatively large range.  The stock bearishly sold off from its 
early-morning highs and finished with a small gain.  Although 
we'd been hoping to see MO continue to follow the Dow Jones 
lower, the weak intraday performance and falling daily 
stochastics (5,3,3) are signs that today's relative strength was 
an aberration.  The stock will be very hard-pressed to maintain 
its current range if the Dow moves lower to retest the 8000 
level.  Short-term traders can target new short positions on a 
move under today's low ($44.75).  Though, keep in mind that our 
profit-target is set at $42.05.  There was no noteworthy news in 
the tobacco sector today.
 
Picked on July 25th at $46.76 
Results since picked:   +1.55
Earnings Date        07/18/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Hughes Supply Inc. - HUG - cls: 34.04 chg: -3.39 stp: 34.94 

Even though we thought this one would do the trick, unfortunately 
the broader market's decline stopped us out of this trade.  On 
the good side, by bumping our stop up over the last week to 
$34.94, the trade yielded a 1% loss.  That's what we call keeping 
losses to a minimum.  With no fresh buzz on Hughes Supply today, 
the failure is purely a technical move related to the Dow.  For 
traders still long, it might be a good idea to make sure you have 
a solid stop in place at or below today's range.  Because HUG 
broke through the most recent relative range on the downside, 
this stock could re-test lows!  Longs be careful!
 
Picked on July 29th at $35.01 
Results since picked:   -0.07
Earnings Date        05/21/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Multimedia Games - MGAM - cls: 20.70 chg: -1.91 stp: text 

With the Nasdaq and Dow displaying weakness over the last few 
days, we are slightly concerned about holding this trade long.  
Thus, we have decided to close this position at current levels, 
protecting ourselves from any large losses.  The recent rebound 
rally traded up to the 50-Week MA, then failed, which is further 
evidence to us that this position is weakening.  Coincidentally 
this also happened to be near the 50-day MA as well (23.46).  
Also, the Stochastics have begun to drop out of the overbought 
region, indicating that selling could begin to appear with 
technicals fading.  There is no new media coverage on MGAM.  
Longs still in their positions should keep a keen eye on possible 
failure; making sure stops are strictly adhered to.      
 
Picked on July 29th at $20.70 
Results since picked:   +0.00
Earnings Date        07/25/02 (confirmed)
 




=================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
=================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============
 
  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Human Genome Sciences - HGSI - cls: 16.01 chg: -0.89 stop: 15.49

Oh Oh, we will be eagerly waiting for Mondays trading to see 
whether this trade is stopped out or not.  While the biotech 
index traded down -0.76% our play fell -5.26%, not a good sign of 
relative strength.  What we do like is that HGSI was able to hold 
the whole number at 16, and could attempt to retain strength.  In 
good news, the Drug Index $DRG.X finished slightly positive, up 
1.76 points, or +0.61% for the day.  Because of the uncertainty 
of this trade, we would like to urge caution against new 
positions at this time.  Our stop remains at $15.49.   
 
Picked on July 30th at $17.20 
Results since picked:   -1.19
Earnings Date        07/25/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Veritas Software - VRTS - cls: 15.59 chg: -0.17 stop: 17.36

*TRIGGERED PLAY*

We were triggered in VRTS today when the stock traded under 
$15.75.  Partially fueling today's weakness was a rumor that 
there could possibly be an executive departure in the future.  
VRTS has had several executives leave over the last few months, 
leaving question as to the loyalty of the rest of the storage 
software maker's team.  The GSTI Software Index $GSO.X faltered 
today also, with a -2.34% negative move.  The GSO is lying 
directly at support, and could see selling commence if the Index 
breaks (and closes) underneath the low at 85.64.  All in all, 
today's activity should be fairly encouraging for shorts that 
have a profit target set in the distance at $12.56.  Because 
anything can happen, the newsletter will retain a wide stop on 
VRTS at $17.36, which if hit, would be a 10% loss.  However, if 
our profit target were met, the trade could yield a 20% gain.     
 
Picked on July 30th at $15.75 
Results since picked:   +0.16
Earnings Date        07/16/02 (confirmed)







=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 08-02-2002
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section three:

Market Watch for Week of August 5th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


==================================================
Market Watch for the week of August 5th
==================================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

ATH    Anthem, Inc.           Mon, Aug 05  Before the Bell   0.98
AIV    Aptmt Invstmnt Mngmnt  Mon, Aug 05  -----N/A-----     1.27
CEPH   Cephalon               Mon, Aug 05  After the Bell    0.21
CHD    Church & Dwight        Mon, Aug 05  Before the Bell   0.36
CUZ    Cousins Properties     Mon, Aug 05  After the Bell    0.54
CHD    Church & Dwight        Mon, Aug 05  Before the Bell   0.36
CUZ    Cousins Properties     Mon, Aug 05  After the Bell    0.54
IN     Infonet                Mon, Aug 05  After the Bell   -0.01
MET    MetLife Inc.           Mon, Aug 05  After the Bell    0.64
OKE    Oneok                  Mon, Aug 05  After the Bell    0.22
PRE    PartnerRe              Mon, Aug 05  After the Bell    1.38
PPS    Post Properties        Mon, Aug 05  After the Bell    0.64
PG     Prctr & Gmble Company  Mon, Aug 05  -----N/A-----     0.74
STO    Statoil ASA            Mon, Aug 05  Before the Bell    N/A
TLTOB  Tele2 AB               Mon, Aug 05  Before the Bell    N/A
TP     TPG NV                 Mon, Aug 05  Before the Bell   0.29
TGH    Trigon Healthcare      Mon, Aug 05  Before the Bell   1.19

------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ASX    Adv. Semi. Eng.        Tue, Aug 06  -----N/A-----     0.01
ACF    AmeriCredit            Tue, Aug 06  After the Bell    1.05
AMH    AmerUs Group           Tue, Aug 06  After the Bell    0.89
BOX    BOC Group PLC          Tue, Aug 06  -----N/A-----      N/A
CAH    Cardinal Health        Tue, Aug 06  Before the Bell   0.73
CSCO   Cisco Systems          Tue, Aug 06  After the Bell    0.12
EIX    Edison International   Tue, Aug 06  Before the Bell   0.39
EDMC   Education Management   Tue, Aug 06  Before the Bell   0.16
ETM    Entercom Comm          Tue, Aug 06  Before the Bell   0.35
EXPD   Expeditors Intl WA     Tue, Aug 06  Before the Bell   0.22
HSIC   Henry Schein           Tue, Aug 06  Before the Bell   0.59
HTG    Hrtge Prprty Inv Trust Tue, Aug 06  After the Bell    0.64
HSP    Hispanic Bradcstng Co  Tue, Aug 06  Before the Bell   0.11
MXIM   Maxim Integrated Pro   Tue, Aug 06  After the Bell    0.21
MNY    MONY Group             Tue, Aug 06  Before the Bell   0.26
NVO    Novo-Nordisk           Tue, Aug 06  -----N/A-----      N/A
OMC    Omnicom Group          Tue, Aug 06  Before the Bell   1.00
PCO    Premcor U.S.A.         Tue, Aug 06  -----N/A-----    -0.28
PRU    Prudential Fncl, Inc.  Tue, Aug 06  After the Bell    0.52
RA     Reckson Ass Realty     Tue, Aug 06  After the Bell    0.61
RYAAY  Ryanair Holdings       Tue, Aug 06  Before the Bell   0.23
SHU    Shurgard Storage       Tue, Aug 06  After the Bell    0.76
IPG    The Interpublic Group  Tue, Aug 06  After the Bell    0.39
TMPW   TMP Worldwide          Tue, Aug 06  After the Bell    0.14
UNM    UnumProvident          Tue, Aug 06  After the Bell    0.63
HLTH   WebMD                  Tue, Aug 06  After the Bell    0.03

-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

AOC    AON Corporation        Wed, Aug 07  Before the Bell   0.50
ARI    Arden Realty           Wed, Aug 07  -----N/A-----     0.70
AVT    Avnet                  Wed, Aug 07  After the Bell    0.00
BHP    BHP Billiton Ltd       Wed, Aug 07  -----N/A-----     0.02
EAT    Brinker International  Wed, Aug 07  Before the Bell   0.49
ETH    Ethan Allen Interiors  Wed, Aug 07  Before the Bell   0.60
FST    Forest Oil             Wed, Aug 07  After the Bell    0.17
HRC    Healthsouth            Wed, Aug 07  Before the Bell   0.28
HIW    Highwoods Properties   Wed, Aug 07  After the Bell    0.91
JS     Jefferson Smurfit Grp  Wed, Aug 07  Before the Bell   0.28
KCIN   KPMG Consulting        Wed, Aug 07  Before the Bell   0.15
LAMR   Lamar Advertising      Wed, Aug 07  After the Bell    0.00
MGA    Magna International    Wed, Aug 07  -----N/A-----     1.83
MME    Mid Atlantic Mdcl Serv Wed, Aug 07  After the Bell    0.39
NBG    Nat Bank of Greece     Wed, Aug 07  Before the Bell    N/A
NEM    Newmont Mining         Wed, Aug 07  -----N/A-----     0.14
PB     Pan American Beverages Wed, Aug 07  -----N/A-----     0.22
RL     Polo Ralph Lauren      Wed, Aug 07  Before the Bell   0.06
PFG    Principal Finl Grp     Wed, Aug 07  Before the Bell   0.53
PDLI   Protein Design         Wed, Aug 07  After the Bell   -0.01
REG    Regency Centers Corp   Wed, Aug 07  After the Bell    0.69
SYT    Syngenta AG            Wed, Aug 07  Before the Bell    N/A
UVN    Univision Comm         Wed, Aug 07  After the Bell    0.10
WPI    Watson Pharmaceutical  Wed, Aug 07  -----N/A-----     0.39
WFMI   Whole Foods Market     Wed, Aug 07  -----N/A-----     0.34

------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

ABN    ABN Amro Holdings      Thu, Aug 08  -----N/A-----      N/A
AEG    AEGON N.V.             Thu, Aug 08  -----N/A-----     0.23
ATK    Alliant Techsystems    Thu, Aug 08  Before the Bell   0.70
ILA    Aquila, Inc            Thu, Aug 08  Before the Bell   0.18
ASN    Archstone-Smith Trust  Thu, Aug 08  Before the Bell   0.53
BF     BASF                   Thu, Aug 08  -----N/A-----      N/A
BIO    Bio-Rad Laboratories A Thu, Aug 08  -----N/A-----     0.64
CVC    Cablevision Systems    Thu, Aug 08  Before the Bell  -1.09
FUN    Cedar Fair LP          Thu, Aug 08  After the Bell    0.18
CNA    CNA Financial Corp     Thu, Aug 08  Before the Bell   0.50
CXR    Cox Radio              Thu, Aug 08  Before the Bell   0.16
DF     Dean Foods Company     Thu, Aug 08  Before the Bell   0.68
EP     El Paso Corp.          Thu, Aug 08  -----N/A-----     0.42
ENL    Elsevier NV ADS        Thu, Aug 08  -----N/A-----      N/A
ELX    Emulex                 Thu, Aug 08  -----N/A-----     0.16
EVC    Entravisions Comm Corp Thu, Aug 08  After the Bell    0.01
HCC    HCC Insurance Holdings Thu, Aug 08  After the Bell    0.42
HEW    Hewitt Associates Inc. Thu, Aug 08  Before the Bell   0.29
HB     Hillenbrand Industries Thu, Aug 08  Before the Bell   0.72
HEW    Hewitt Associates Inc. Thu, Aug 08  Before the Bell   0.29
HB     Hillenbrand Industries Thu, Aug 08  Before the Bell   0.72
NXL    New Pln Excl Rlty Trst Thu, Aug 08  -----N/A-----     0.47
PIXR   Pixar                  Thu, Aug 08  After the Bell    0.11
Q      Qwest Communications   Thu, Aug 08  -----N/A-----    -0.07
RUK    Reed Elsevier NV/Plc.  Thu, Aug 08  -----N/A-----      N/A
RSA    Ryl Sun Alnce Ins Grp  Thu, Aug 08  Before the Bell    N/A
NZT    Tele Corp New Zlnd Ltd Thu, Aug 08  After the Bell     N/A
PNX    The Phoenix Companies  Thu, Aug 08  Before the Bell  -0.08

------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

None


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

FVB     First Virginia Banks      3:2      08/09       08/12
WSBK    Wilshire State Bank       2:1      08/15       08/16
SSD     Simpson Manufacturing     2:1      08/16       08/19


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

The U.S. economy has come to the front of all investor's minds.  
Keeping a close eye on economics is a must for all traders 
who wish to limit their exposure to possible potholes in the 
current market.

==============================================================
                       -For-           

Monday, 08/05/02
----------------
ISM Services (DM)       Jul  Forecast:   57.0  Previous:     57.2

Tuesday, 08/06/02
-----------------
None

Wednesday, 08/07/02
-------------------
Export Prices ex-ag.(BB)Jul  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:    -0.1%
Import Prices ex-oil(BB)Jul  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:     0.1%
Wholesale Invntories(DM)Jun  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:     0.1%
Consumer Credit (AB)    Jun  Forecast:  $8.0B  Previous:    $9.5B

Thursday, 08/08/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   08/03  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:     387K
PPI (BB)                Jul  Forecast:   0.1%  Previous:     0.1%
Core PPI (BB)           Jul  Forecast:   0.0%  Previous:     0.2%

Friday, 08/09/02
----------------
Productivity-Prel (BB)   Q2  Forecast:   2.3%  Previous:     8.4%


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available



==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CIG     Companhia Energetica Mines 8.70      +0.62

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name              Close     Change 

TKLC    Tekelec                   8.47      +1.91
PBR     Petroleo Brasileiro       15.39     +1.54
TBH     Telecom Brazil            19.25     +1.15
ASE     American Science & Eng.   11.20     +1.60

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

IVGN    Invitrogen Corporation     35.07     +1.13
UL      Unilever                   36.11     +1.76
INFY    Infosystems                53.41     +2.99

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

LEN     Lennar Corp.               44.22     -4.56
DCOM    Dime Community Bancshare   24.01     -1.33
THOR    Thor Industries Inc.       28.32     -3.84
YUM     Yum! Brands Inc.           26.48     -1.73
URBN    Urban Outfitters Inc.      20.95     -2.06
JILL    J. Jill Group              20.09     -1.75

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CBRL    Cbrl Group Inc.            26.40     -2.16
HRH     Hilb Rogal & Hamilton      40.40     -1.49
PZZA    Papa Johns International   29.91     -1.20
FFCH    First Financial Holdings   29.00     -1.28
BOBE    Bob Evans Farms Inc.       26.16     -1.47




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