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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 08/07/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter              Wednesday 08-07-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================


In section one:

Market Wrap:      The Playground
Watch List:       ADBE, ETM, HD, HSY, KLAC, NOC and more...
Play of the Day:  Off to a Good Start


*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************       
         08-07-2002        High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8456.15 + 182.02  8460.17  8214.62 1739 mln   1980/1128
NASDAQ   1280.90 +  21.35  1298.12  1243.49 1567 mln   1704/1530
S&P 100   441.46 +  10.29   442.39   429.15   totals   3684/2658
S&P 500   876.77 +  17.20   878.74   854.15
RUS 2000  383.47 +   2.68   385.21   376.56
DJ TRANS 2271.38 +  35.88  2277.96  2214.87
VIX        43.07 -   2.66    47.01    42.07
VIXN       68.84 +   4.66    69.26    63.91
Put/Call Ratio: 0.76
*******************************************************************
 

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Trading action was mixed today with a gap up opening that looked 
like disaster as the market quickly faded with traders selling 
into strength.  Luckily, the Dow was able to regain its lost 
ground closing up +182.06 for the day.  The Nasdaq gained +21.35 
and the S&P 500 staged a +17.20 point rally to close at 876.77.  
NYSE advancers outpaced decliners 1980 to 1128, while Nasdaq 
winners beat losers 1708 to 1527.  The Big Board saw 21 new 52-
Week Highs and 92 52-week Lows!  Nasdaq witnessed 15 news highs 
versus 96 new lows.  1.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE, and 
1.5 billion exchanged hands on the Nasdaq.  


Overall the market seemed to be jittery in light of earnings from 
CSCO last night, which topped analysts' expectations.  The tech 
giant beat expectations, reporting 14 cents versus the 12 
anticipated by the street.  CSCO also increased its treasury 
buyback program by five billion dollars.  

Leading sectors of the day were: pharmaceuticals, healthcare, 
computer software and hardware, transportation, biotech, and 
chemicals.  Losers in the session were: oil services and the 
Dollar.  

Former ImClone CEO, Sam Waksal was indicted today on charges that 
he tried to dump stock (insider trading) several days before an 
FDA ruling was announced to the public.  If convicted, he faces 
45 years in prison, and a 1.5 million dollar fine.  Martha 
Stewart faces several class action lawsuits in connection with 
her sale of IMCL stock, and has refused to talk to a 
congressional Committee.   

Today also witnessed the International Trade Import and Export 
Prices report, which measures the price change of products 
exchanged with other countries.  Export prices ascending 0.4% in 
July, while import Prices staying flat for July.  Analysts fear 
that a weakening dollar and inflationary threats could lead to a 
future rise in prices of non-petrol goods.  However, this is good 
news for exporters who will benefit from the appreciation of 
foreign currencies. 

Wholesale Inventories increased 0.3%, beating the market forecast 
of 0.2%.  The Wholesale Report is not an incredibly important 
economic indicator, as the analysis does not reveal anything 
notable about personal consumption.  The numbers do indicate a 
positive tone for the wholesale industry, as inventory-to-sales 
ratios remain low.  

With interest rates remaining low and another potential 
refinancing boom ahead (if the Fed lowers rates further), the MBA 
Index hit a record high last week.  The MBA Index is a leading 
indicator of home sales, giving insight into where U.S. housing 
markets are going by measuring mortgage applications.  Further, 
the Index also depicts refinancing activity, which can be an 
insight in to future consumer spending activities.  

The MBA Mortgage Applications Survey reported 1066.9 new 
applications, up from 732.0 on July 5th.  This is 46% higher than 
where it was only four weeks ago, and more than double the rate a 
year ago.  Even more astounding is the refinance data, which 
indicates 5097.3 applications versus 2616.6 in July. Re-financing 
is good for the economy because if more homeowners refinance at 
lower rates, they then directly have more expendable income to 
circulate back into the economy.  With the surge in refinancing 
equity, homeowners will likely be putting much of that cash back 
into their homes in the name of renovation related products.  The 
only negative issue in the numbers is that with heightened demand 
for mortgages, home prices are once again on the rise.  If 
housing prices continue to climb, it is very possible to see a 
"bubble" develop which could eventually burst if interest rates 
climb over 7%.  According to CBS Market Watch, the Fed funds 
futures are currently predicting a 7% chance of a rate change for 
the FOMC meeting next Tuesday, and a 53% chance for next January.  
Assuming the economy shows more weakness, the FOMC would likely 
lower rates sometime in the next year, which would stimulate even 
more mortgage activity.  However, the scenario seems like a catch 
22...  If the Fed lowers rates in September to spur more 
consumers into spending through re-financing, the economy could 
see recovery and possibly inflation.   Thus, the Fed probability 
for another rate cut would decrease in January, as the economy 
shows signs of a strong real-estate market and consumer backed 
recovery.  If the Fed then sees signs of an inflationary market, 
it would then have to raise rates, putting a clamp on the money 
supply.  Also, as previously mentioned, if mortgage rates climb 
above 7%, the "bubble" could burst, as the housing market gets a 
quick dose of reality when buyers disappear.   The equation is a 
fine line of economic feathering in order to maintain a fruitful 
equilibrium.  I would like to note that obviously the economy is 
not solely dependant on real-estate backed consumer spending, and 
the scenario I spoke of above is isolated in data...  The real 
picture has many other factors to consider.

It is important to note that the MBA Index is GREAT news for the 
economy because bottom line, it means revenue.  Consumers spend, 
companies earn.  The unknown factor is how much consumers will 
spend, or will they sock their refinance cash away into savings.  
If consumer's turn out to be prudent Americans who are careful 
with their income, we could see slower, more stagnate recovery.  
Unfortunately, that is not what corporate bean counters and 
economists want to hear.  Today's epiphany is that the economy is 
sliding into a bottom, and we could definitely see economic 
recovery as early as this spring.  Recent history teaches us that 
if and when the economy does recover, we should not let the 
nineties repeat themselves.  If we leap frog into the market once 
again like chickens with our heads cut off chasing overvalued 
stocks... The whole process could repeat itself.   

Because a picture tells a thousand words, the rest of today's 
article will include mostly charts.

Chart of: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Daily.




The Dow chart clearly shows the descending channel we have been 
trading in.  The 50-dma crossing under the 200-dma in late July 
was not a good sign.  If the Dow hopes to gain strength, the 
index must breakout of the descending channel and challenge the 
whole number at 9000.  Bears have been using the channel to find 
short entry points, reconvening their positions each time the 
index touches descending resistance.  In good news for bulls 
today, the Dow was able to close above resistance at 8400.
We will be keeping a close eye on this channel, as is has 
identified out range for the last five months.  

Chart of: Dow Jones Transportation Index, Daily.




In the Dow Jones Transportation Index, the chart shows an effort 
at a rebound rally.  The question at hand is whether the current 
move is simply a short covering rally or a sign of future 
strength?  Leading today's gains were the railroads: Union 
Pacific Railroad (NYSE:UNP), Burlington Northern (NYSE:BNI), and 
C S X Corporation (NYSE:CSX).  If a turn in the Transportation 
Index appears to be a reality, it could be a leading indicator of 
economic health. After all, the transportations not only move 
goods for consumption, but also use many core resources as well. 

Chart of: S&P 500, Weekly.




The S&P chart evidences the descending channel support and 
resistance, which has been guiding the index.  Since September of 
2000 the S&P has bounced off descending support 3 times, while 
the index also recently failed at channel resistance early last 
spring.  If the S&P is able to maintain a rally in the near term, 
1000 will be a strong number to test, as it lies at horizontal 
resistance and descending channel resistance.  Bulls are happy to 
see the weekly Stochastics turning up out of the oversold region, 
possibly indicating future buying.

Chart of: Nasdaq Combined Composite Index, Daily.




The Nasdaq chart immediately displays its weakness.  The Current 
descending trend is a smaller move within a larger down trend.  
Long term descending resistance is characterized by the blue line 
on the chart, which also seems to appear in tandem with the 200-
dma.  In the short term, the Nasdaq must not only fight the 
descending resistance of the pink line, but it must fight through 
the 1500 area as well.  The recent hold at support of 1200 
hundred is a good sign for bulls, along with Stochastics 
seemingly turning up. 

Chart of: Market Volatility Index: Daily.




The VIX is an inverse measure of the markets, calculated from 
option volatility.  The VIX is currently at 43.07 has fallen from 
the most recent extreme levels, allowing the market room to 
breathe.  The "normal" range for the VIX is 20 to 30, where 20 is 
usually an indication that the market is topping out, and 30 
normally depicts a bottom.  However, these are anything but 
normal times, thus we see the VIX trading at unusual levels.  A 
close over 50 is said to be an extreme circumstance and could be 
followed by a large short covering move.  The Momentum indicator 
is calculated between the current price and the price length 
during 12 previous intervals.  The indicator is supposed to 
indicate a change in trend when the signal line crosses above or 
below the 0 line.  

Chart of: U.S. Dollar, Daily.




The U.S. Dollar has certainly been taking heat of its own over 
the last several months.  Weakness in the greenback can be 
attributed to foreign flight of investment capital in light of 
the current weakened economy.  The buck was able to hold 105, and 
has attempted to gain momentum since its low a few weeks ago.  
Currently trying to trade above the 50-dma, the dollar could 
pullback here, as the Stochastics also look overbought.  A solid 
move above to 50-dma could bring buyers off the fence and attempt 
a move higher towards the 200-dma.  Of important note, the 200-
dma is very close to the Fibonacci retracement number of 61.8%, 
which could be tough resistance.  Although bears would like to 
see the market decline, a fall in the dollar would be devastating 
to the economy as whole.  Perhaps even patriotic bears would 
rather not see that?  In good news for bulls, the weekly 
Stochastics (not shown) are turning up from the oversold region.  

Chart of: Semiconductor Index, Daily.




Trading at levels not seen since 1998, the Semiconductor Index 
$SOX.X is fighting to stay alive.  The weekly chart above 
outlines the wild ride that this index has had since 1999.  Even 
six flags couldn't build a better roller coaster!  Currently, the 
SOX is trading on the low end of the descending channel.  On the 
weekly chart, the Stochastics show three prior instances where 
the indicator was in oversold territory like now.  Incidentally, 
in each of the three times, the index was also at or near the 
bottom of the descending channel.  Further, each tap on the 
bottom of the channel (with Stochastics confirmation) was 
followed by a rally to the upper portion of the range.  Although 
this may not be the bottom, the SOX certainly looks as if it is 
would like to bounce! 

Chart of: S&P Retail Index, Weekly.



      
Now this sector is range bound!  The S&P Retail Index has been 
trading up and down in the same range since 1999.  However, the 
index is at a critical level, and needs good news from the sector 
for a move to higher ground.  The daily Stochastics look to be 
turning higher, and could provide a technical boost to the 
sector.  Tomorrow brings the Chain Store Sales numbers, which 
will show whether sales in July slowed or not.  Making things 
tougher, Ralph Lauren reported today, reporting numbers in-line 
with analyst's expectations.  The retail giant posted decent 
gains during the session, closing up 5.82% at 21.06.

Chart of: Oil Index, Weekly.


 


With the price of crude trading near highs, the Oil Index seems 
to be moving with a mind of its own.  However, weakness can be 
attributed to downstream issues, along with a lack of demand for 
jet fuel.  The price of crude is being artificially inflated with 
worries of an attack on Iraq.  Overall tension in the Middle East
 must be eased before crude will find its true range.  Because of 
low current inventories in crude, OPEC has begun producing more 
oil, at an excess of 1.5 to 2 bpd per day.  This weeks crude 
inventories are at the lowest levels since 2001. The above Oil 
Index chart depicts the low level at which the oil companies are 
currently trading at.  The descending channel looks dangerous, as 
the MACD seems to be moving further into the negative region.  
Bulls have to be pleased with the trading action of the last two 
days, where the index was able to close above the 405 level.  

Chart of: Dow Jones Home Construction Index, Daily.


 

It is said that one of the last sectors to rollover in a 
recession is Residential Construction.  If this is the case, than 
we certainly have plenty of downside room left in the above 
chart.  Traders seeking positive ground should be encouraged with 
the recent move up from the 280 area, where the Index was able to 
hold support.  As the index moves back up to test the 200-dma, 
traders should watch for weakness in the regional areas of 
construction.  If the fed lowers rates by surprise, the housing 
sector could get a very healthy boost.   

All in all the market is in a holding pattern until the Fed meeting 
next week.  Traders should be cautious with the immense amount of 
volatitility, which has surfaced in the market recently.  Though 
sectors look extremely oversold, be careful not to fall into a 
trap of thinking they cannot go lower.  Current valuations of the 
market are still seemingly high, and could still sustain selling 
pressure.  Sir Alan Greenspan and company should provide useful 
insights into our economic future with the FOMC meeting next 
Tuesday.  Until then, we will be waiting on pins and needles, 
while riding on this seesaw market.      

Mark Whistler
Editor
mwhistler@PremierInvestor.net    



==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 17.64 change: +0.25

WHAT TO WATCH: ADBE kicked off the month of August on a sour note 
after the company announced reduced Q3 guidance.  Shares gapped 
sharply lower on the news and have since traded in a somewhat 
narrow range between $16.50-$18.00.  This consolidation pattern 
indicates that another big move could be in the cards.  A break 
below the multi-year low of $16.49 would open the door for a test 
of the $15.00 level.  Alternatively, ADBE may offer itself as a 
bullish candidate if it moves above $18.36 and starts to fill in 
its August 1st gap. 




---

Entercom Communications - ETM - close: 39.93 change: +2.19

WHAT TO WATCH: An upgrade from Bear Stearns gave a boost to 
shares of ETM today.  This followed a strong performance on 
Tuesday, when Wall Street reacted favorably to the company's 
earnings report.  Technically, ETM looks like it will continue to 
distance itself from near-term support at $36.00.  Volume backing 
the past two days of gains has been brisk, the daily stochastics 
are beginning to curl higher from the oversold region, and the p-
n-f chart just reversed into a column of "X's."  Watch for a move 
above today's high ($40.05) to offer a potential entry point.




---

Home Depot - HD - close: 28.26 change: +0.23 

WHAT TO WATCH: There's been a whole lot of economic data to chew 
on in recent weeks, and most of it has given the bulls a bad case 
of indigestion.  The possibility of a "double-dip" recession has 
led to a renewed decline in both the RLX.X retail index and HD, 
the latter of which is dangerously close to setting new multi-
year lows.  A break below $27.00 may provide a possible action 
point for bearish positions.  P-n-f chartists will note that this 
would create a triple-bottom sell signal.  Although we'd 
initially be targeting a decline to the next level of 
psychological support at $25.00, an eventual test of the $20.00 
region wouldn't be out of the question if the economic climate 
continues to deteriorate.




--- 

Hershey Foods - HSY - close: 71.89 change: -1.11

WHAT TO WATCH: On July 25th, HSY gapped sharply higher on reports 
that the company was going to put itself up for sale.  The latest 
speculation has been that Nestle is the most likely buyer.  
However, today's developments may throw a wrench in these plans.  
The Milton Hershey School Alumni Association, which controls 77% 
of the shareholder voting rights, requested that lawmakers put 
the proposed sale on hold to allow time for public hearings on 
the matter.  This may create selling pressure in the stock, which 
already seems to have priced in a buyout.  Looking at the daily 
bar chart, one will note that HSY has begun to fill in the 
aforementioned gap.  A move under today's low could clear the way 
for a test of the 200-dma at $67.51 or the 50-dma at $66.06.  
Bear in mind, however, that such a trade would be subject to 
further news-related volatility.  




---

KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 36.89 change: -0.29

WHAT TO WATCH: KLAC may present a good shorting opportunity if it 
breaks under the relative low of $34.75.  If that occurs, there's 
not much in the way of historical support to prevent a test of 
the $30.00 level.  More optimistic traders could even shoot for 
the 52-week low at $28.61.  The semiconductor index (SOX.X) has 
spent the last few sessions bouncing around near the 300 level.  
Today's rebound from a low of 291 was impressive, but those gains 
could quickly evaporate if the NASDAQ experiences another 
rollover.  




--- 

Northrop Grumman - NOC - close: 110.72 change: +4.47

WHAT TO WATCH: Short-term traders may want to take a look at NOC.  
Shares of the defense contractor closed above the 200-dma 
($109.09) on Wednesday and are threatening to break above the 
relative high of $111.25.  A move above this level could lead to 
a rapid test of the 50-dma ($116.37), which coincides with 
bearish resistance on the p-n-f chart.  The daily stochastics 
(5,3,3) are beginning to rebound from just above the oversold 
region, hinting at more potential upside.  On a related p-n-f 
note, a trade at $112 will create a double-top buy signal.




---

Neoware Systems - NWRE - close: 14.42 change: -0.47

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this computer hardware company have 
risen dramatically since breaking out of the $2.00 range last 
November.  The past two days have seen NWRE tag an all-time high 
of $14.75.  A move over this level could provide a possible 
action point for aggressive traders.  An alternate strategy would 
be to wait for shares to clear psychological resistance at 
$15.00.  P-n-f enthusiasts will note that a trade at this level 
will create a double-top buy signal.  In the news today, Neoware 
announced that starting tomorrow, its common stock will trade on 
the NASDAQ National Market.  Shares had previously traded on the 
NASDAQ SmallCap Market.




--- 

Oakley Inc - OO - close: 12.25 change: -0.30

WHAT TO WATCH: Monday's close under $13.00 did not sit well with 
shareholders of OO, who have spent the last two sessions 
enthusiastically selling the stock.  Shares fell to a new multi-
month low today, backed by the strongest volume of the year.  
With the p-n-f chart currently signaling a triple-bottom 
breakdown and the MACD displaying a fresh bearish crossover, OO 
appears to be headed for a test of the $10.00 level.  Entries can 
be considered on a move under today's low of $11.90.  In recent 
news, OO announced yesterday that it had settled a patent 
infringement suit against V-2 Optic.  This development did not 
appear to have any impact on the stock, which has been relatively 
weak versus the broader market.




---

Oxford Health - OHP - close: 36.10 change: +0.08

WHAT TO WATCH: The HMO.X health provider index recently bounced 
from its 200-dma, but shareholders of OHP have had no such luck.  
The stock has faced heavy selling pressure following the August 
1st earnings announcement, when Oxford reported a decline in Q2 
earnings. Shares fell below the 200-dma ($38.30) on Monday and 
are now in danger of taking out psychological and historical 
support at $35.00.  If this occurs, we'd expect OHP to retrace 
the steep gains from early January.  Short entries can be 
evaluated on a move under the relative low of $34.81, initially 
targeting a decline to the $30.00 region.  The p-n-f chart is 
looking ugly as well, with shares recently falling below the 
bullish support trend.




---

Sony Corp - SNE - close: 43.85 change: +1.35

WHAT TO WATCH: A two-week uptrend in the U.S. Dollar (DX00y) may 
be helping to put up bottom under SNE.  This is because the 
stronger Dollar (which leads to a weakening in the Japanese Yen) 
makes Sony's overseas exports more attractive to consumers.  
Technically, shares have leveled out near $42 in recent sessions 
and look poised to stage a short-term rebound.  The daily 
stochastics are starting to turn up from extreme oversold levels 
suggesting that SNE could eventually rally back to its 200-dma at 
$48.95.  Underlying support lies at the 2002 low of $40.60 and 
the psychologically important $40.00 level.  Because SNE has yet 
to break out of its multi-month downtrend, bullish entries 
require an aggressive strategy.  With this in mind, traders can 
consider long positions on a move above today's high of $44.02.





===============
Play-of-the-Day (Non-tech BULLISH play)
===============

Ball Corp - BLL - close: 45.60 change: +1.55 stop: 42.89

Company Description:
Ball Corporation is one of the world's leading suppliers of metal
and plastic packaging to the beverage and food industries. The
company also owns Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp. Ball
reported 2001 sales of $3.7 billion, of which approximately $3.3
billion came from its packaging segment and $400 million from its
aerospace and technologies segment. (source: company press
release)



- ORIGINAL WRITE UP: August 6th, 2002 -
 
Why We Like It:
In a rapid reversal of fortune for its shareholders, BLL has
rebounded sharply from its July low of $32.82.   Helping to fuel
the bounce was a strong earning report that featured a sharp
increase in Q2 earnings and a positive outlook for the second
half of 2002.  The company attributed the results to a strong
demand for its plastic water bottles (seems everyone carries
around bottled water these days) and a solid performance from its
aerospace division.  In the most recent news development, BLL
received an upgrade today from Salomon Smith Barney.  This had
shares trading higher by 7.8%, backed by relatively strong volume
of 925K shares.  BLL is now threatening to break above the $45.00
region, which stymied rally attempts in June and July.  This
level also happens to coincide with the 61% retracement from
April highs to July lows.  Furthermore, a glance at the p-n-f
chart shows that a trade at $45.00 will create a triple-top buy
signal.  By placing a trigger to go long at $45.06, we're aiming
to ride BLL back to the next shelf of resistance near $49.00.
Although BLL has already experienced some strong gains, the daily
stochastics (5,3,3) are wavering near the middle range.  This
suggests that shares may have more upside potential.  If our play
is triggered we'll use a stop at $42.89, a cent under today's
low.  More aggressive traders could use a stop under the 50-dma
at $41.22.

- Play-of-the-Day Comments: August 7th, 2002 -

Shares of BLL charged higher with the Dow Jones this morning and 
quickly eclipsed our entry trigger at $45.06.  BLL displayed 
impressive relative strength for the duration of the trading 
session, holding strong even as the Dow Jones was firmly in 
negative territory.  Shares outperformed the Industrials and 
finished with a 3.5% gain, closing well above former resistance 
at $45.00.  This is a very bullish development, and the stock now 
looks ready to move towards the $47-$49.  Traders can consider 
new entries if BLL rises above today's high ($45.90) or pulls 
back to $45.00.  Our stop is currently set at $42.89.

Picked on August 7th at $45.06
Results since picked:    +0.54
Earnings Date         07/25/02 (confirmed)
 




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DISCLAIMER
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 08-07-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================


In section two:

Net Bulls Tech Stocks
  Stop Adjustments       PIXR
Active Trader Non-Tech Stocks
  Triggered Plays:       BLL (Bullish)
High Risk/High Reward
  Triggered Plays        MOVI, QCOM (Bearish)

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Net Bulls Tech Stocks (NB) section
=================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

Stop Adjustments
----------------

Pixar - PIXR - close: 41.59 change: -0.13 stop: 42.26 *new*

This hypothetical trade continues to work in our favor, with PIXR
displaying relative weakness on Wednesday and posting a small
loss.  However, our timeframe is limited by tomorrow night's
earnings announcement.  To eliminate the risk of getting caught
in a positive reaction to the report, we will close this play as
of the final trade on Thursday.  There simply isn't enough
fundamental weakness (i.e. huge flops by movies PIXR has helped
produce) to warrant holding over earnings.  We're also going to
inch our stop down to $42.26, slightly above today's high.  This
should protect a small gain from our original entry point.





=================================================================
Active Trader/Non-tech Stocks (AT) section
=================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

Triggered Plays
---------------

Ball Corp - BLL - close: 45.60 change: +1.55 stop: 42.89

Shares of BLL charged higher with the Dow Jones this morning and
quickly eclipsed our entry trigger at $45.06.  Shares
outperformed the Industrials and posted a 3.5% gain, closing well
above former resistance at $45.00.  This is a very bullish
development, and the stock now looks ready to move towards the
$47-$49.  Traders can consider new entries if BLL rises above
today's high ($45.90) or pulls back to $45.00.  Our stop is
currently set at $42.89.





=================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
=================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

Triggered Plays
---------------

Movie Gallery - MOVI - close: 13.20 change: +0.37 stop: 14.10

This short play was triggered within the first half-hour of
trading when MOVI hit our action point at $12.49.  The stock
remained weak until a late-afternoon broader market rally lifted
it back into positive territory.  We suspect that short-term
resistance near $13.50 will thwart any further advance, keeping
MOVI safely below our stop at $14.10.  If MOVI reverses course
tomorrow, new entries can be targeted on a move under $12.00.




---

QUALCOMM Inc - QCOM - close: 25.01 change: -0.17 stop: 26.11

As we had anticipated, a positive response to last night's CSCO
earnings had both the NASDAQ and QCOM gapping higher this
morning.  The stock tagged an intraday high of $26.00, only to
see eager sellers quickly come out of the woodwork.  Our play was
triggered when QCOM reached $24.08.  Shares pared most of their
losses during the final two hours of trading, but were barely
able to register a close above $25.00.  This action does not bode
well for the bulls.  New entries can be considered on a rollover
from $26.00 or a break under the relative low of $23.21.  Our
stop is set at $26.11, above the highs for the past two days.




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh
ideas.  New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TSP     Telecom De Sao Paulo       10.78     +0.58
YUM     Yum! Brands Inc.           28.55     +0.63
FBP     First Bancorp Holding      28.50     +1.90
CBE     Cooper Industries Inc.     30.92     +1.52
PRX     Pharmaceutical Resources   27.28     +1.98

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

ENDO    Endocare Inc               13.84     +1.58
UNTD    Untied Online Inc          10.90     +1.43
HRC     Healthsouth Corporation    11.16     +1.11
NABI    Nabi Biopharmaceuticals     5.73     +1.08

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

RL      Polo Ralph Lauren          21.06     +1.16
WCNX    Waste Connections Inc.     33.24     +1.74
VARI    Varian Inc.                34.57     +2.22
MRCY    Mercury Computer Systems   23.80     +2.35
BRP     Brasil Telecom             26.55     +1.04

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

WFMI    Whole Foods Markets        38.59     -1.34
PHTN    Photon Dynamics            22.16     -1.71
EAT     Brinker International      27.40     -2.30
UVN     Univision Communications   21.90     -2.01
ESE     Esco Technologies          27.40     -2.38

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CRH     Coram Healthcare           24.77     -0.03




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