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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 08/09/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-09-2002
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      The Lull Before the Storm
Play-of-the-Day:  Short Circuit
Watch List:       Super Sized!
Market Sentiment: Not Just Yet


******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
        WE 8-09          WE 8-02          WE 7-26          WE 7-19 
DOW     8745.45 +432.32  8313.13 + 48.74  8264.39 +245.13  -665.27
Nasdaq  1306.12 + 58.20  1247.92 - 14.20  1262.12 - 57.03  - 54.35
S&P-100  458.82 + 24.77   434.05 +  7.12   426.93 +  3.83  - 35.81 
S&P-500  908.64 + 44.40   864.24 + 11.40   852.84 +  5.09  - 73.64 
W5000   8571.87 +385.31  8186.56 + 94.93  8091.63 +  8.63  -628.50 
RUT      388.45 + 12.00   376.45 -  5.81   382.26 -  3.94  - 27.08 
TRAN    2351.65 +149.62  2202.03 - 52.76  2254.79 - 77.39  -147.96 
VIX       39.36 -  6.03    45.39 +  4.95    40.44 -  3.01  +  5.12 
VXN       58.70 -  6.74    65.44 -  3.58    69.02 +  7.85  -  4.83 
TRIN       0.90             1.47             1.21             1.44
Put/Call   0.69             0.93             0.70             1.14
******************************************************************


===========
Market Wrap
===========

In today's trading the Dow finished its fourth consecutive 
positive day, closing at 8745.45, up +33.43 points.  The Nasdaq 
couldn't quite keep up with the Big Board, falling -10.40 points 
to 1306.2.  The S&P closed relatively flat, moving a mere +3.18 
points, finishing the session at 908.64.  Volume on both 
exchanges was light, with 1.4B exchanging hands on the NYSE, and 
1.3B trading on the Nasdaq.  Advancers on the NYSE outnumbered 
decliners 1708 to 1379, though losers overtook winners on the 
Nasdaq 1845 to 1379.   

The week's economic news.

Monday brought forward the Challenger Report, and the ISM Non-
Manufacturing Index.  The Challenger Report indicated that layoff 
activity had shrunk in July, though job growth remained flat.  
The ISM Manufacturing Index shrunk 4.1% to 53.1%.  Although a 
level above 50% indicates economic expansion, the report 
indicated a decrease from the previous 57.2% in June.

Tuesday gave the Chain Store Sales Snapshot from the Bank of 
Tokyo-Mitsubishi, which rose 0.1%.  The weekly number inferred 
that chain-store sales were reasonably flat.  

Wednesday's news included: Consumer Credit, Import and Export 
Prices, the ABC New/Money Magazine Consumer Credit Index, and 
Wholesale Trade MWTR.  Although Growth in Consumer Credit grew by 
$8.4 billion dollars in July, the number slowed from June.  
According to ABC, consumer comfort declined to -13, which is the 
low of last winter.  The report indicates that consumers have a 
less than positive outlook for the U.S. economy. 

Finally, Wholesale Trade received greater than expected gains for 
inventories and sales.  The report is positive for the Wholesale 
industry, with the inventory-to-sales ratio at 1.23, a relatively 
low reading.

Thursday presented further Chain Store Sales, which faded 2.6% in 
July from last year.  However, the market anticipates better 
sales in August with revenue from back to school sales.     

T.G.I.F.  In today's economic news, we witnessed the Productivity 
and Costs report, which had a mild increase in growth from June, 
but slower than in the beginning of the year.  The sluggish 
numbers weighed on the market, as the report signaled slower 
economic output.  In other news, the weekly index by the Economic 
Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), alluded that the economy will 
not slip back into a recession this year.  The report indicated 
that mortgage applications rose and initial unemployment claims 
fell.

Earnings, Bailouts, Scandals, and Martha Stewart.  

Earlier in the week Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) exceeded analysts 
predictions, coming in with 77 cents per share, three cents above 
the 74 cents the street anticipated.  On Tuesday, Cisco 
(NASDAQ:CSCO) beat expectations, reporting 14 cents versus the 12 
cents analysts had expected.  Wednesday produced a fruitful day 
for Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM), the world's largest gold producer.  
The mining company reported 2 cents above the street at 16 cents.  
Retailer Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL) also reported, topping expected 
earnings of 6 cents, reporting 9 cents per share.  On Thursday, 
Pixar (Nasdaq:PIXR) studios blew away earnings, reporting 20 
cents per share, while also lifting year-end guidance as well.  
Emulex (NYSE:ELX) met expectations, though the company's shares 
came under fire as the data storage maker said it expects weaker 
sales for the full year.  

Brazil found itself in great spirits this week, as the 
International Monetary Fund (IMF), announced plans that it was to 
help the struggling country with a 30 billion dollar bailout 
package.

WorldCom found an additional 3 billion (oops!) in earnings 
errors, almost doubling the accounting debacle to over 7 billion 
dollars.  The defunct firm also stated that it might write off 
$50.6 billion of goodwill and other intangible assets.  The 
amount of money WCOME is writing exceeds the IMF's contribution 
to bail out an entire country!? 


Humor a la Martha.  After another week in the witch-hunt, it 
looks as if one of her friends (who was on her private jet at the 
time of her sale of ImClone shares) is now cooperating with 
federal prosecutors.  Martha might be under investigation for 
breaking the law in an insider trading scandal, but isn't she 
innocent until proven guilty?  It certainly seems the media 
doesn't think so.  CNBC ran a segment yesterday showcasing one of 
her properties on the Hamptons, which looked slightly unkempt.  
What does this have to do with anything related to her ImClone 
sale?  Is it possible that this is a prime example of 
irresponsible journalism, where the only possible outcome is the 
potential tarnishing of one's public image?  The condition of her 
yard has nothing to do with the sale of ImClone shares.  Moral of 
the story: take care of your yard, or the next time you go to 
court for a speeding ticket, there will be a journalist outside 
asking if the reason why you drive so fast is because you don't 
mow your lawn.  And they could very well have pictures too.  

Sir Alan Greenspan

The soon to be knighted Alan Greenspan and the FOMC will meet on
 Tuesday to discuss economic policy and decide on an interest 
rate hike or cut.  The Street is certainly mixed on what will 
happen.  Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut its overnight 
interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.25%.  The economists at 
Morgan Stanley believe that this scenario is highly likely to 
ensure against a possible "double dip" recession.  However, 
others believe that the Fed will not make a move, as the FOMC 
will need to reserve its ammunition for later dates.  After the 
Fed's most recent report to congress, the media proclaimed that 
the Fed predicted continued growth in the economy.  After reading 
the report for myself, I found one paragraph, which might allude 
to something slightly different.  Page one, paragraph four, 
states: "Even though an appreciable recovery in the growth of 
economic activity by early next year seems the most likely 
outcome, (1) there is as yet no hard evidence that this 
improvement is in train, and the situation remains very 
uncertain. In these circumstances, (2) the FOMC continues to 
believe that the risks are weighted toward conditions that may 
generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future. At the same 
time, the FOMC recognizes the importance of sustaining the 
environment of low inflation and well-anchored inflation 
expectations that enabled the Federal Reserve to react rapidly 
and forcefully to the slowing in real GDP growth over the past 
several quarters. When, as the FOMC expects, activity begins to 
firm, the Committee will continue to ensure that financial 
conditions remain consistent (3) with holding inflation in check, 
a key requirement for maximum sustainable growth.”  To read the 
report click here: 
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/2001/july/ReportSection1.htm

In the editor's opinion, the Fed is saying: "(1) yes, we do see 
the economy improving, (2) but the numbers could certainly still 
slip, and if so, we will quickly make adjustments to compensate. 
(3) Further, if inflation appears we could tighten the money 
supply." 

Given the Fed's statement, it seems that the FOMC could be 
considering several issues for Tuesday's meeting.  First, the GDP 
slipped this month, making economists fearful of a "double dip" 
recession.  Second, much of the economic news that has recently 
surfaced seems slightly negative.  Third, the broader market is 
still near its relative lows, and could easily fall below those 
levels.  On the contrary, the Fed could consider the MBA Mortgage 
Applications report, along with today's ECRI Weekly Leading 
Index.  With mortgage and re-financing applications at near term 
highs, the leading indicators point to a surge of cash that could 
trickle into the economy.  Simply put, re-financing means more 
expendable income.  Further, inventories and jobless claims are 
at low levels, and corporate layoffs have slowed from previous 
numbers. 

Food for thought:  The Federal Reserve Board recently published a 
paper in June on preventing deflation.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2002/729/default.htm
The paper says: "We conclude that Japan’s sustained deflationary 
slump was very much unanticipated by Japanese policymakers and 
observers alike, and that this was a key factor in the 
authorities’ failure to provide sufficient stimulus to maintain 
growth and positive inflation. Once inflation turned negative and 
short-term interest rates approached the zero-lower-bound, it 
became much more difficult for monetary policy to reactivate the 
economy."  The report implies that when monetary policy begins to 
falter in stimulus, the fiscal bodies that govern need to be more 
aggressive...as in cutting rates.  For Pete's sake, someone just 
call Sir Alan this weekend and ask him!!  

- "Hey Al, How's the wife, are you going to cut rates or what?"

Certifiably Certified 

The SEC list of 947 companies required to certify their books, is 
long and grueling.  Of the 947, only 114 have had CEO responses. 
The list of CEO certifications is below, however, this does not 
include CFO responses.  To see the CFO responses, and/or view the 
full list please check: 
http://www.sec.gov/rules/extra/ceocfo.htm#ceo

Companies with CEO responses:

3Com Corp.
Aetna Inc.
AK Steel Holding Corporation
Alcoa Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
ALLETE, Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 5, 2002   
Amazon.com, Inc. 08/14/2002 July 29, 2002  X
Amercan Axle & Manufacturing Holdings. 08/14/2002 Aug. 2, 2002 
American Water Works Company, Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
AMR Corporation 08/14/2002 July 24, 2002  X
AmSouth Bancorp. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002  
Analog Devices, Inc. 09/17/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Anthem, Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002   
ArvinMeritor, Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002  
Autoliv, Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002  
Avery Dennison Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002      
Baxter International Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Bemis Company, Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
BMC Software, Inc. 08/14/2002 July 31, 2002  
ChevronTexaco Corp. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002 
Cigna Corp 08/14/2002 Aug. 2, 2002   
Clear Channel Communications Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 2, 2002   
Colgate-Palmolive Co. 08/14/2002 Aug. 2, 2002  
Comcast Corp. 08/14/2002 Aug. 2, 2002   
Cooper Industries Ltd. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002  
Corning Inc. 08/14/2002 July 26, 2002 
CSX Corp. 08/14/2002 Aug. 1, 2002    
DaVita Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Delphi Corp. 08/14/2002 July 18, 2002  
Di Giorgio Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 8, 2002  
Diebold Incorporated 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002    
Dow Jones & Company, Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Electronic Arts Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 1, 2002    
Electronic Data Systems Corp. 08/14/2002 July 26, 2002  
Emerson Electric Co. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Energy East Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Exelon Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002   
Expeditors Intntl of Washington Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002  
ExxonMobil Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 1, 2002  
Federal Express Corp. 08/29/2002 July 22, 2002  
Fiserv Inc. 08/14/2002 July 24, 2002  
Frontier Oil Corp. 08/14/2002 Aug. 1, 2002  
Gannett Co., Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
General Cable Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002   
General Electric Company 08/14/2002 July 31, 2002  
Genuity Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Gillette Company 08/14/2002 Aug. 5, 2002   
Golden West Financial Corporation 08/14/2002 July 30, 2002    
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 10/15/2002 Aug. 6, 2002  
The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Great Lakes Chemical Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 1, 2002  
Great Lakes Chemical Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 1, 2002  
Hilton Hotels Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002  
Hormel Foods Corporation 09/10/2002 Aug. 1, 2002  
Integrated Electrical Services Inc. 08/14/2002 July 31, 2002  
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 2, 2002  
Kelly Services Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Knight-Ridder Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 5, 2002 
L-3 Communications Holdings Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 5, 2002 
Legg Mason Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002     
Leggett & Platt Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 5, 2002   
Lithia Motors Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002 
The Lubrizol Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 5, 2002 
M & T Bank Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 2, 2002  
Markel Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Masco Corporation 08/14/2002 July 30, 2002  
The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 2, 2002  
The MONY Group Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 1, 2002  
Murphy Oil Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002   
Newell Rubbermaid Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 1, 2002  
North Fork Bancorporation Inc. 08/14/2002 July 31, 2002    
Northeast Utilities System 08/14/2002 Aug. 2, 2002  
NVR Inc 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Ocean Energy Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 1, 2002    
Office Depot Inc. 11/12/2002 Aug. 2, 2002  
Oracle Corp. 08/29/2002 July 29, 2002  
Oxford Health Plans Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 2, 2002   
PepsiCo Inc. 10/22/2002 July 25, 2002  
PG&E Corp. 08/14/2002 Aug. 2, 2002   
PPG Industries Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002  
Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. 08/14/2002 July 29, 2002  
Qualcomm Inc. 08/14/2002 July 26, 2002  
R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company 08/14/2002 Aug. 1, 2002  
Rockwell Automation Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002     
Rockwell Collins Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002   
Ryder System Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Seaboard Corp. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Siebel Systems Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 5, 2002  
Silgan Holdings Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Smithfield Foods Inc. 09/11/2002 July 30, 2002  
Solutia Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 1, 2002  
Southwest Airlines Co. 08/14/2002 July 29, 2002  
Sprint Corp. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Starbucks Corp. 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002  
State Street Corp. 08/14/2002 Aug. 2, 2002   
Stein Mart Inc. 09/17/2002 Aug. 6, 2002   
Sunoco Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
Tecumseh Products Company 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002  
Tellabs Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 5, 2002   
Texas Instruments Incorporated 08/14/2002 July 30, 2002    
Textron Inc. 08/14/2002 July 26, 2002  
Timken Company 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002   
United Technologies Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 1, 2002  
Unitrin Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 2, 2002  
Viad Corp. 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002     
Viasystems Group Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002  
Werner Enterprises Inc. 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002   
WGL Holdings Inc. 08/14/2002 July 31, 2002    
Whirlpool Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 6, 2002  
Wisconsin Energy Corporation 08/14/2002 Aug. 7, 2002   
World Fuel Services Corporation 08/14/2002 

The Dow and Beyond

Rate uncertainty excluded, the Dow has definitely had an 
impressive rebound rally over the last two weeks.  The Dow 
measured a 5.2% percent gain this week, with an 8.7% percent 
ascent during the last four days alone.  The chart below displays 
horizontal resistance, where today's gains were halted in the 
8760 area.  Further hampering a move to higher ground was the 
descending channel, which connects in almost the same area.  
Stochastics are entering the overbought region where they are not 
only confirming buying, but could also be potentially signaling a 
pullback in the future.  For the Dow to see continued strength, 
the Index would need to break out above current horizontal and 
descending resistance, and then close above the whole number at 
9000.  The current channel should be watched very closely, for 
with the upcoming uncertainty of the FOMC meeting, descending 
resistance could still prove to be a formidable foe.      

Chart of: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Daily.

Chart=


Given the current market, the newsletter is going to add a 
conditional Dow-related short to its list of plays.  The short we 
are speaking of is the Diamonds Trust (AMEX:DIA), which is an 
Index Tracking Stock, which closed at $87.60 today.  The Diamonds 
Trust trades with the Dow Jones, closely mirroring the indexes 
moves during each trading session.  Our strategy is as follows:  
On Monday, if there is a short covering rally ahead of the Fed 
meeting, we will be waiting for the 9000 mark to be hit. If 9000 
is touched or breached, we will wait for the DIA to fall back 
under $89.95, where we will initiate our paper short.  If the 
position is triggered, we will put a conservative stop above the 
$90.00 resistance at $91.01.  Our profit target for the position 
is $80.51, where we could see a 10.5% gain if all things work 
out.  If no action is taken on Monday, and there is a short 
covering rally prior to the Fed's announcement on Tuesday, we 
will also implement the same short strategy.  HOWEVER, if we have 
a position when the Fed announces its decision on Tuesday, and a 
rate cut of 50 basis points surfaces, we will immediately close 
our entire trade.  Remember, the Diamonds must trade above $90.00 
and then fall back below $89.95, if our position is to be 
initiated.  

Chart of: Diamonds Trust, Daily.

Chart=


There are several things to consider while digesting the prior 
weeks' activities over the weekend.  The topic du jour is 
obviously a potential rate cut by the Fed.  If by chance the Fed 
does cut rates, the market would certainly be happy, but it also 
means the Fed is doing it for a reason.  One reason could be that 
the Fed was nervous enough to not wait any longer; in which case 
we are forced to wonder what they see ahead that is so bleak.  If 
the Fed doesn't cut rates, we can assume several things.  First, 
as I mentioned earlier, perhaps the Fed is simply saving ammo for 
a later scenario, like a possible terrorist attack or the 
September FOMC meeting.  Second, innaction could correspond with 
the strengthening economic data of late.  Improvement in the 
American economy is certainly welcomed, though the missing rate 
reduction might infer a slower recovery with the absence of 
immediate stimulus.  Teeter-totter.

Although the Dow finished positively, the 30-Year Treasury Bond 
Index $TYX.X, and the 10-Year Treasury Note Index $TNX.X both 
declined in yield, indicating bond purchasing.  The buying of the 
30-Year Note ahead of the FOMC meeting has led some to believe 
that a rate cut is in store.   

Long story short, the market is eagerly waiting the results of 
the FOMC meeting this coming Tuesday.  The doldrums of summer 
have certainly not been anything of usual practice this year.  
The market has had a crash course in volatility, seeing 200 and 
300 point swings on a day-to-day basis.  Market volume has 
tapered slightly over the last two weeks, though there is 
certainly more than enough activity to keep traders and investors 
interested.  
The following week should definitely be a whopper, as the market 
will witness both the FOMC meeting and the potential "herd" of 
certifications for the SEC's designated August 14th date.  
Although the SEC declared that companies should certify their 
books "on or after" the 14th, many may wish to seek safety in 
numbers on Wednesday.  In any case, we should at least be happy 
that all companies are not required to expense stock options, for 
that could be the final meltdown.  

In closing, Monday could certainly be the lull before the storm.  
Tuesday and Wednesday should prove to be no less than a Richard 
Simmons workout on fast forward.  We can count on jumping all 
over the place with a lot of high-pitched screaming going on. 
As usual, investors need to be aware of their stop loss points to 
protect their accounts.  Remember, research and discipline 
provide the foundation for success in the market!  The best 
investors in the world are not stock pickers, rather, they are 
money managers.  

"People become really quite remarkable when they start thinking 
that they can do things.  When they believe in themselves they 
have the first secret of success." - Norman Vincent Peale

Editor
Mark Whistler
mwhistler@PremierInvestor.net


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH)
=========================
(( new non-tech short play ))

Entergy Corp - ETR - close: 41.05 change: -0.85 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Entergy Nuclear, the nuclear businesses of Entergy Corporation, 
is headquartered in Jackson, Miss. Entergy, a global energy 
company headquartered in New Orleans, is the third largest power 
generator in the nation with more than 30,000 megawatts of 
generating capacity, nearly $10 billion in revenue and almost 2.6 
million customers. (source: company website)

Why We Like It:
ETR exploded for a gain of more than 30% after it bottomed out 
with the broader market on July 24th.  The rally was fueled by a 
Q2 earnings report that beat analyst expectations, and a powerful 
rebound in the Dow Jones.  The recent bond market action may have 
also played a part in ETR's comeback.  With treasury yields at 
multi-month lows, the typically large dividends of utility 
companies become a more attractive place for conservative 
investors to park their money.  

Macroeconomic dynamics aside, ETR looks awfully overextended.  
It's already begun to roll over from its relative high of $42.23 
and just closed under the 200-dma ($41.20).  The daily 
stochastics are just beginning to release from the overbought 
levels, indicating that there could be plenty of downside 
potential.  By shorting ETR on a move under $41.00, we're hoping 
to ride the stock down to the $38.00 region, which offered 
support in mid-July.  Although we'll have to contend with the 50-
dma at $40.65, we feel shares are simply too top-heavy to 
maintain current levels.  Longer-term traders may want to wait 
for ETR to actually trade under the 50-dma before taking 
positions.  If triggered, our stop-loss will be located at 
$42.26, just above the recent high.

Picked on August xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         07/30/02 (confirmed)
 
Chart =




==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Abgenix - ABGX - close: 10.04 change: +0.42

WHAT TO WATCH: We strongly considered adding ABGX to our Play 
List tonight, but were not satisfied with the risk/reward ratio 
that would be created by using a stop under the 50-dma ($9.55).  
However, traders who can keep a close eye on this volatile stock 
may want to consider a bullish trade.  The stock has broken above 
the $10.00 level and is currently signaling a double-top breakout 
on the p-n-f chart.  With a little help from continued strength 
in the BTK.X biotech index, shares could easily ascend to the 
$12.00 level within the next few sessions.  Aggressive traders 
can target entries at current levels, while others may want to 
wait for a move above today's high ($10.37).

Chart =


---

American International - AIG - close: 66.95 change: +1.44

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of AIG have just broken above the 
descending regression channel that has dictated trading since 
last October.  A seemingly positive development, though bulls 
aren't out of the woods just yet.  They'll first have to vanquish 
overhead resistance in the $68-$69 region.  However, the point-
and-figure chart bodes well for a continued advance; AIG is 
currently signaling a triple-top breakout and has moved above 
bearish resistance.  Traders willing to brave the possibility of 
a rollover could take entries at current levels, with an upside 
target near the 200-dma at $72.38.

Chart =


---  

Citigroup - C - close: 34.31 change: +0.41

WHAT TO WATCH: Financial stocks moved higher this week after the 
International Monetary Fund agreed to a planned $30 Billion 
bailout of Brazil.  Although investors have been relieved of the 
possibility that C could see its Brazilian loans go up in smoke, 
the stock has yet to move over resistance at $35.00.  Traders 
looking to speculate on the FOMC meeting could short C at current 
levels.  If the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, the resulting 
disappointment could lead to a retest of the $30.00 level.  After 
the bell today, the House Financial Services Committee issued a 
subpoena to Citigroup, in response to the company's failure to 
provide information about WorldCom execs who may have bought into 
assorted IPO's.  This news may negatively impact the stock on 
Monday.

Chart =


---  

Electronic Data Systems - EDS - close: 36.30 change: +0.17

WHAT TO WATCH: Breakout ahoy!  Having just set a new relative 
high of $37.00, EDS is the proud owner of a triple-top p-n-f buy 
signal.  The uptrending MACD and daily stochastics indicate that 
the uptrend could continue.  Short-term traders should watch for 
a move above $37.00, which would clear the way for a test of the 
50-dma at $39.60.  In recent news, shareholders of LDCL agreed on 
Friday EDS's $63.5 Million purchase of the company's web services 
division. 

Chart =


---

Phillip Morris - MO - close: 49.54 change: +0.35

WHAT TO WATCH: Big MO was the beneficiary of a recent decision 
from the California Supreme Court that made it more difficult to 
sue tobacco companies in the state.  This news, combined with the 
Dow Jones rally this week, has sent shares careening into 
psychological resistance at $50.00.  This level is bolstered by 
the 200-dma at $50.12.  Given MO's overbought status (as 
evidenced by the daily stochastics), odds seem to be in favor of 
a pullback.  A rollover from current levels would present a 
shorting opportunity.  Although the 50-dma at $48.72 is of some 
concern, the bulls would have a tough time propping the stock up 
if the broader market begins to head lower again.

Chart =


--- 

Northrop Grumman - NOC - close: 116.57 change: +0.89

WHAT TO WATCH: Deja vu!  We featured NOC in the most recent Watch 
List, based on its close over the 200-dma.  Shares have since 
moved all the way up to the 50-dma at $116.11.  The bulls 
effortlessly plowed through this level on Friday, which indicates 
a possible continuation of the current rally.  The uptrending 
MACD and daily stochastics (5,3,3) offer additional technical 
encouragement.  Aggressive traders can think about going long if 
NOC breaks above today's high ($118.20).  Alternatively, a 
pullback to the 200-dma ($109.22) may also yield an entry point.  
We'd be targeting a move to the $125-$135 region, although the 
bullish p-n-f count of $150 suggests even more upside potential.  
In recent news, A Pentagon official commented on Thursday that 
Northrop's $7.8 Billion takeover bid of TRW was not likely to 
encounter any major obstacles.

Chart =


---  

Oneok Inc - OKE - close: 18.88 change: -0.52

WHAT TO WATCH: This natural gas stock has risen dramatically from 
its July 24th low of $14.62, but it's now faced with a 
triumvirate of overhead resistance at the 200-dma ($19.13), 50-
dma ($19.51), and $20.00.  And what do you know...In addition to 
being at key psychological level, $20.00 also coincides with 
bearish resistance on the p-n-f chart!  Given the fact that OKE 
is already sitting on some hefty gains, we think the chances of a 
rollover are pretty good.  Watch for a move under today's low 
($18.75) to offer a bearish action point.  Short-term profit 
target would be at the August lows near $17.25.

Chart =


---

Paychex Inc - PAYX - close: 21.72 change: -0.80

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of PAYX slipped to a new multi-year low 
today after the bulls abandoned support at $22.00.  Given the 
stocks' recent relative weakness, we think this breakdown could 
trigger another heavy round of selling.  Short entries can be 
evaluated on a move under today's low ($21.20).  A trade at 
$21.00 will create a double-bottom sell signal on the p-n-f 
chart.  Although the bulls may find some temporary relief at the 
$20.00 level, a broader market decline could send PAYX even 
lower.

Chart =


--- 

VF Corp - VFC - close: 41.25 change: +1.36

WHAT TO WATCH: This retailer may be overextended, but today's 
close above the 200-dma ($40.36) is an indication that the bears 
are still in full retreat.  The recent trend of relative strength 
(versus the RLX.X retail index) and double-top p-n-f buy signal 
offer additional signs that shares could continue higher.  Long 
positions can be gauged on a pullback to the $40.00 level.

Chart =


---

Watson Pharmaceuticals - WPI - close: 21.98 change: +0.49

WHAT TO WATCH: The drug sector is on a tear, and WPI is no 
exception.  Shares have blown through near-term resistance at 
$21.00 and are now in the process of retracing early-July's steep 
losses.  Technically, the uptrending daily stochastics (5,3,3) 
and MACD hint at a continued uptrend.  This bullish outlook is 
supported by the triple-top buy signal on the p-n-f chart.  
Today's high of $22.50 (just above the 50-dma) presents a 
possible action point to go long.  In terms of profit targets, 
we'd be looking for shares to reach the $25.00 level within the 
next few weeks.

Chart =



------------
RADAR SCREEN
------------ 


BBY - Investors hammered BBY after the company announced an 
earnings warning.  Shares got a "dead cat bounce" on Friday and 
rose 8.7%, trading well within Thursday's range.  The Inside Day 
strategy can be used to go long on a move above today's high 
($21.45) or short on a break under today's low ($19.85).  This 
would be a speculative, high-risk trade.

CCR - Shares appear extremely overextended.  Speculation of a fed 
rate cut has helped this mortgage company.  Thus, we think CCR 
could see some heavy selling if Greenspan leaves rates unchanged.  
Note that only high-risk positions should be taken ahead of the 
FOMC announcement.

GD - GD has lagged the recent uptrend in defense stocks, but 
shares may now be playing "catch-up."  A move over today's high 
($85.30) would confirm a break above near-term resistance, 
clearing the way for a test of the 200-dma at $90.11. 

ICOS - Patient bulls have been rewarded with a break above 
bearish p-n-f resistance, and more importantly, a move into the 
April 30th gap.  Long entries can be considered if ICOS rises 
above today's high ($28.00).

MRK - Another strong drug stock.  Shares have broken though both 
the 50-dma ($48.71) and psychological resistance at $50.00.  A 
pullback to this level may provide an action point to go long.  
Given enough time, a move to the 200-dma ($57.06) wouldn't be out 
of the question. 

UNM - This insurance stock has broken above resistance and is 
trading at relative highs.  The 50-dma at $22.82 provides a 
clearly-defined profit target to shoot for.  Long entries could
be evaluated on a pullback to the $20.00.


================
Market Sentiment
================

Not Just Yet

by Steve Price

The Dow finally made up the losses it endured at the end of last 
week and beginning of this one.  A $30 billion bailout of 
Brazil's economy helped the U.S. bank stocks lead the Dow higher, 
but the big story is the anticipation of next week's FOMC 
meeting.  

The market has been extremely volatile as investors try to guess 
whether or not the FOMC will lower the Fed Funds Rate below the 
current level of 1.75%.  What once looked like a remote 
possibility before the September 24th meeting has now been tossed 
around as a distinct possibility for August 13th.  Several large 
institutions have called for a cut of up to 50 basis points at 
next Tuesday's meeting, and up to 75 basis points by the end of 
the year.  While this would boost the stock market temporarily, 
it may leave the Fed with only blanks in its arsenal as the year 
goes on.  

The anniversary of the September 11th attacks is right around the 
corner, and happens to fall in between the August and September 
FOMC meetings.  If the rate were not already under 2%, a cut on 
Tuesday would seem to be a healthy move toward stimulating both 
the stock market and the economy.  However, the Fed must consider 
the possibility of terrorist activity on, or sometime around, 
September 11th.  Last year, after the attacks they instituted two 
quick rate cuts in order to prop up the plummeting stock market.  
The same tactic would most likely be used again this year.  
Adjusting for inflation, there is only so far the Fed can lower 
rates, before money is, in effect, free.  A rate under 1% could 
be dangerous to inflation, and most likely will not be 
instituted.  That leaves about 75 basis points in the Fed's 
arsenal.  If they were to lower the rate by 25 points next week, 
and something were to happen around the 11th, they would be left 
with only 50 points to play with.  If the economy slipped back 
into recession, that doesn't leave a lot that they can do.  Last 
year they cut rates 11 times, with some of those cuts by 50 basis 
points.  They now have about 3 cuts, of 25 points each, 
realistically left with which to stimulate the economy.  

There are some institutions calling for a 50 point cut on Tuesday 
and then 25 more by the end of the year.  This would be 
dangerous, as well, because if the market were to continue 
tumbling, panic could set in, knowing there is very little the 
Fed could do afterwards.  The Fed does have another alternative 
that may not keep the markets from pulling back from the current 
level, but could save their bullets, while letting investors know 
help is on the way.  This seems to be the most likely scenario 
and would involve the Fed leaving rates where they are, but 
announcing a bias toward lowering them in the future.  

There is some talk that Japan could have averted the economic 
crisis of 1998 if they had been more aggressive in lowering 
interest rates, and that the risk of not lowering rates in the 
U.S. is greater than lowering them now.  If the Fed waits just 
six weeks, until the meeting of September 24th, they will put off 
the effect of any rate cut by only six weeks, while retaining an 
important weapon against another possible attack next month.  The 
effects of any cut are said to take between six and twelve 
months, so any cut instituted now may not be felt for some time.  
Another six weeks allows far greater flexibility in dealing with 
the unknown.

If the rate is not cut next week, look for the market to 
experience a pullback from this week's rally.  Be careful on 
Monday about buying into any continued rally.  Many times, when 
the Fed gives the market what it is looking for and has already 
expected, in this case a 25 point rate cut, there is an initial 
surge, and then a pullback when the euphoria wears off.  In 
either case, a 50-point basis cut may be all that will keep the 
market rolling at this incredible pace.  But the long term cost 
may be too great





-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10679
52-week Low :  7702
Current     :  8745

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8517
 50-dma: 8967
200-dma: 9748

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1226
52-week Low :  797
Current     :  908

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  884
 50-dma:  947
200-dma: 1077

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1782
52-week Low :  892
Current     :  937

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  928
 50-dma: 1023
200-dma: 1355


-----------------------------------------------------------------



The Retail Index (RLX.X):  The retail index hung on to its gains, 
and the effect of a rate cut next week could be extremely 
positive for these stocks.  If it trickles down to allow more 
homeowners to refinance their mortgages, there is extra 
disposable income in consumers' pockets.  The record mortgage 
application numbers released early in the week suggest the effect 
is already taking place, and this may have contributed to 
investors renewed confidence in this sector.  The RLX has 
rebounded decisively, forming a double bottom just below 260.  
The textbook pattern, with the second dip higher than the first, 
is not quite the same as looking at an individual stock, as it is 
hard to measure volume, however it still looks bullish for the 
group.

52-week High: 366
52-week Low : 254
Current     : 272

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 273
 50-dma: 305
200-dma: 331


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

Heading into the weekend, after a day in which the market fights 
off a loss to rally past the recent high, we would expect to see 
a VIX quite a bit below 40.  Not with next week's FOMC meeting 
coming up.  Until there is an announcement on whether or not the 
Fed will lower the Fed Funds Rate, expect volatility to remain 
high. 

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 39.36 -0.44
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 58.70 -0.65

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.69        554,586       383,686
Equity Only    0.55        411,789       224,452
OEX            0.82         41,312        34,034
QQQ            0.30         62,748        19,041

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          32      + 1     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    28      + 2     Bull Correction
DOW           37      + 4     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       33      + 3     Bull Alert
S&P 100       34      + 2     Bull Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.06
10-Day Arms Index  1.14
21-Day Arms Index  1.21
55-Day Arms Index  1.37

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1708          1379
NASDAQ     1382          1842

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         35              65
NASDAQ       37             134

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,486
NASDAQ   1,322

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/06/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

The commercials reduced their short contracts position by 4,000, 
while increasing their long contracts slightly. Small traders, 
increased their long contracts by nearly 6,000, while leaving 
their short positions virtually unchanged.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
07/16/02      388,943   464,162   (75,219)   (8.8%)
07/23/02      405,969   471,704   (65,735)   (7.5%)
07/30/02      430,833   482,957   (52,124)   (5.7%)
08/06/02      431,590   478,879   (47,289)   (5.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/16/02      157,370    67,247    90,123     40.1%
07/23/02      166,713    73,778    92,935     38.6%
07/30/02      153,858    67,451    86,407     39.0%
08/06/02      159,561    67,434    92,127     40.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Commercials increased both long and short contract positions 
equally, by just less than 3,000 contracts on each side.  Small 
traders reduced both positions, taking 1600 contracts from the 
long side, and 450 from their shorts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
07/16/02       33,152     39,866    (6,714) ( 9.2%)
07/23/02       37,204     43,601    (6,397) ( 8.0%)
07/30/02       38,163     47,343    (9,180) (10.7%)
08/06/02       41,014     50,025    (9,011) ( 9.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
07/16/02       12,816    10,774     2,042     8.7%
07/23/02       12,756    11,152     1,604     6.7%
07/30/02       13,159     9,237     3,922    17.5%
08/06/02       11,547     8,782     2,765    13.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials added to both long and short contract totals.  They 
added 1,000 long contracts and about 1400 shorts.  Small Traders 
also added to both sides, increasing their long contracts by 
1200, while adding 250 to the short side. 


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/16/02       20,357    14,074    6,283      18.2%
07/23/02       22,369    14,745    7,624      20.5%
07/30/02       22,429    12,811    9,618      27.3%
08/06/02       23,491    14,290    9,201      24.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
07/16/02        8,524    10,133    (1,609)   (8.62%)
07/23/02        9,101    12,604    (3,503)   (16.1%)
07/30/02        6,778     8,999    (2,221)   (14.1%)
08/06/02        7,981     9,258    (1,277)   ( 7.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-09-2002
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  ORCL, RX
  Bearish Play Updates:  VZ

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     DIA, ETR
  Bullish Play Updates:  SBUX
  Bearish Play Updates:  ALK, AZO, CPG
  Closed Bullish Plays:  BLL

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:     RKY
  Bullish Play Updates:  FDRY
  Bearish Play Updates:  MOVI
  Closed Bearish Plays:  QCOM
                        


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Oracle Corporation - ORCL - cls: 9.81 cls: -0.20 stop: 9.40

*TRIGGERED PLAY*

Today's trading action tripped our action point for ORCL, 
allowing us to initiate our hypothetical trade at $10.06.  Our 
position seemed strong until sellers began to flood the stock 
around 11:30am.  However, our stock was not the only weak link in 
the Nasdaq, as the Composite Index closed down -10.40 points, or 
-0.78% on the day.  The lack of news on ORCL today indicates that 
the move is not linked to any stock specific problem for our 
stock.  Thus, we have not lost faith in our trade quite yet.  
ORCL has certainly been fighting resistance at $10.00, though 
with any kind of positive news from the Fed in the following 
week, Oracle cold potentially rally above the psychological and 
technical whole number.  New positions could be considered above 
the $10.00 level, though stops should remain set at $9.40.       

Picked on August 9th at $10.01
Results since picked:    -0.19
Earnings Date         06/18/02 (confirmed)

Chart =


---

IMS Health - RX - close: 16.27 change: +0.20 stop: 15.65 *new*

Triggered in RX today, the stock hit our action point mid morning 
en route to new relative highs.  Unfortunately the stock gave 
back some of its gains, though it did close positive at $16.27.  
On the daily chart bulls, could be encouraged with the new higher 
high a midst the current rebound rally.  Also of positive note, 
RX closed above yesterday's high, and above $16.00, which could 
bode well for bulls.  Because of the uncertainty coming forth in 
the market with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday, we are going to 
"challenge" this trade by moving our stop up to $15.65.    

Picked on August 9th at $16.21  
Gain since picked:       +0.06
Earnings Date         07/15/02 (confirmed)

Chart =



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Verizon Communications - VZ - cls: 30.25 cls: +0.55 stop: 31.41

During today's trading, Verizon Communications was able to stage 
a +1.85% rally, closing up +0.55 points.  The stock's strength 
was not directly linked to any particular news, thus we are left 
to infer that the move was primarily linked to the pre-Fed rally 
in the Dow.  Also, the North American Telecom Index $XTC.X 
ascended today, staging a +0.83% gain.  Given Verizon's relative 
strength versus the telecom sector, we are certainly going to be 
watching this stock closely.  However, to avoid being quickly 
stopped out if the market continues to rally on Monday, are not 
going to lower our stop just quite yet.  Thus, we will leave our 
stop at $31.41, allowing the trade room to breathe.  Conservative 
traders could put a stop above today's high, though a positive 
gap open for Verizon on Monday could trigger a closing order.        

Picked on August 6th at $29.87 
Results since picked:    -0.38
Earnings Date         07/31/02 (confirmed)

Chart =




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Diamonds Trust - DIA - cls: 87.60 chg: +0.35 stop: *see text*

Trust Description:
The Diamonds Trust is a Dow Jones tracking stock that 
is traded on the AMEX.

Why we like it:

Given the current market conditions, the Diamonds still have 
reasonable resistance to contend with.  The Diamonds have failed 
three prior times on descending support in the current short-term 
channel.  Further, the recent failure in the Diamonds has allowed 
the stock to fall below congestion from 1998, which could still 
act as resistance.  Although the congestion is not substantial in 
weight, there are several identifiable areas of resistance.  The 
87.80 area stands out, along with the $90-90.50 area.  The $90.00 
area also appears as resistance in October of 2001.  

Given the current market, the newsletter is going to add a 
conditional Dow-related short to its list of plays.  The short we 
are speaking of is the Diamonds Trust (AMEX:DIA), which is an 
Index Tracking Stock.  The Diamonds Trust trades with the Dow 
Jones, closely mirroring the indexes moves during each trading 
session.  Our strategy is as follows:  On Monday, if there is a 
short covering rally ahead of the Fed meeting, we will be waiting 
for the 9000 mark to be hit. If 9000 is touched or breached, we 
will wait for the DIA to fall back under $89.95, where we will 
initiate our paper short.  If the position is triggered, we will 
put a conservative stop above the $90.00 resistance at $91.01.  
Our profit target for the position is $80.51, where we could see 
a 10.5% gain if all things work out.  If no action is taken on 
Monday, and there is a short covering rally prior to the Fed's 
announcement on Tuesday, we will also implement the same short 
strategy.  HOWEVER, if we have a position when the Fed announces 
its decision on Tuesday, and a rate cut of 50 basis points 
surfaces, we will immediately close our entire trade.  Remember, 
the Diamonds must trade above $90.00 and then fall back below 
$89.95, if our position is to be initiated.  

For annotated chart: click here
Chart of: Diamonds Trust, DIA.



Picked on July xth at  $xx.xx <---- See text 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date              NA
 
Chart =


---

Entergy Corp - ETR - close: 41.05 change: -0.85 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Entergy Nuclear, the nuclear businesses of Entergy Corporation, 
is headquartered in Jackson, Miss. Entergy, a global energy 
company headquartered in New Orleans, is the third largest power 
generator in the nation with more than 30,000 megawatts of 
generating capacity, nearly $10 billion in revenue and almost 2.6 
million customers. (source: company website)

Why We Like It:
ETR exploded for a gain of more than 30% after it bottomed out 
with the broader market on July 24th.  The rally was fueled by a 
Q2 earnings report that beat analyst expectations, and a powerful 
rebound in the Dow Jones.  The recent bond market action may have 
also played a part in ETR's comeback.  With treasury yields at 
multi-month lows, the typically large dividends of utility 
companies become a more attractive place for conservative 
investors to park their money.  

Macroeconomic dynamics aside, ETR looks awfully overextended.  
It's already begun to roll over from its relative high of $42.23 
and just closed under the 200-dma ($41.20).  The daily 
stochastics are just beginning to release from the overbought 
levels, indicating that there could be plenty of downside 
potential.  By shorting ETR on a move under $41.00, we're hoping 
to ride the stock down to the $38.00 region, which offered 
support in mid-July.  Although we'll have to contend with the 50-
dma at $40.65, we feel shares are simply too top-heavy to 
maintain current levels.  Longer-term traders may want to wait 
for ETR to actually trade under the 50-dma before taking 
positions.  If triggered, our stop-loss will be located at 
$42.26, just above the recent high.

Picked on August xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         07/30/02 (confirmed)
 
Chart =



===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Starbucks Corporation - SBUX - cls: 19.46 cls: +0.07 stop: 18.40

The SEC announced this morning that it had cleared the accurate 
accounting statements from Starbucks' CEO and CFO.  This news 
wasn't unexpected, but it certainly didn't hurt the bulls' cause.  
Shares reached a new short-term high of $19.67 before finishing 
with a gain of 7 cents.  Percentage-wise, today's move mirrored 
the action on the Dow Jones.  The technical picture remains 
unchanged, with the MACD and daily stochastic oscillators both 
uptrending.  New entries can be gauged on a move above today's 
high ($19.67).  Keep in mind, however, that the bears may defend 
psychological resistance at $20.00.  We'll likely tighten our 
stop if shares close above this level.

Picked on August 8th at $19.39 
Gain since picked:       +0.07
Earnings Date         07/25/02 (confirmed)

Chart =


  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Alaska Air - ALK - close: 23.69 change: -0.16 stop: 24.01

This play is still alive and kickin'!  Yesterday's action had us 
concerned, as ALK finished with a solid gain and approached our 
stop-loss at $24.01.  Our bearish hopes were pinned on the 
inability of shares to move above whole-number resistance at 
$24.00.  Thus, we were very pleased to see ALK remain safely 
under this level during today's session.  Shares finished with a 
16-cent loss, underperforming both the Dow Jones and the XAL.X 
airline index.  Although our stop remains at $24.01, traders may 
want to give up an extra 5 cents and force ALK to trade above the 
descending 50-dma at $24.06.  New short entries can be gauged on 
a move under today's low of $23.22.  In news yesterday, a flight 
attendants' union said that ALK is violating a California order 
to provide aircraft maintenance records.  Alaska Air has yet to 
respond to these claims.

Picked on July 30th at $23.62
Results since picked:   -0.07
Earnings Date        07/22/02 (confirmed)
 
Chart =


--- 

AutoZone - AZO - close: 67.28 change: +0.88 stop: 70.01
 
AZO closed the week out on a positive note, as shares outpaced 
the Dow Jones and posted a 1.32% gain.  There wasn't any news to 
explain this relative strength, but we did notice similar moves 
in fellow auto parts retailers SAH, and DPH.  AZO traded an 
Inside Day and stayed well within the previous day's range.  The 
mixed oscillators make it difficult to gauge where the stock is 
headed next, but we believe a broader market sell-off in response 
to Tuesday's Fed meeting could lead to heavy selling in AZO.  
Aggressive traders can target new entries on a break under 
today's low ($65.31) or Thursday's low at $64.50.
 
Picked on July 25th at   $67.96 
Results since picked:     +0.68
Earnings Date          09/24/02 (unconfirmed)

Chart =


---

Chelsea Property - CPG - close: 32.45 change: -0.10 stop: 34.11

It wasn't very exciting to watch, but CPG finished Friday's 
session with a small loss.  Shares moved in a narrow 25-cent 
range (heck, we've seen spreads bigger than 25 cents!) and traded 
an Inside Day.  This may reflect investor uncertainty ahead of 
next week's FOMC meeting.  How might the imminent interest rate 
decision affect this play?  Because it's a Real Estate Investment 
Trust, CPG is sensitive to changes in lending rates.  An interest 
rate cut would likely lead to some short-term gains in the stock.  
However, we suspect that CPG (and the overall broader market) 
will sell off if the Fed leaves rates unchanged.  If this is the 
case, aggressive traders can evaluate new entries on a move under 
the near-term low of $31.50.  We would not recommend taking new 
positions ahead of Tuesday afternoon's FOMC announcement.

Picked on August 2nd at $32.68
Results since picked:    +0.23
Earnings Date         08/12/02 (confirmed)

Chart =



===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Ball Corp. - BLL - close: 47.23 change: -0.07 stop: 44.13

After lifting BLL more than 15% in just four sessions, the bulls 
decided to cool their heels on Friday.  Shares pegged a new 
relative high of $47.63 but finished slightly in the red.  BLL 
may resume its northbound journey if the broader market continues 
higher ahead of Tuesday's FOMC meeting.  However, the stock is 
now looking technically overbought, as evidenced by the daily 
stochastics (5,3,3).  Rather than risk a pullback, we're going to 
drop this play as of today's closing price ($47.23).  This 
represents a move of +4.8% from our entry point.  Traders who 
want to keep their bullish positions open can target a move to 
$48.99.  This would represent an 8.7% gain from this play's entry 
point.  More aggressive types could target a move to the $50.00 
level, but we're anticipating some heavy resistance at the May 
highs near $49.00.  However, the newsletter is dropping our play, 
as the risk for further ascension seems to outweigh the reward of 
closing the play here.

Picked on August 7th at   $45.06
Results since picked:      +2.17
Earnings Date           07/25/02 (confirmed)
 
Chart =




==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------  

Adolph Coors - RKY - close: 63.46 change: -0.72 stop: *text* 

Company Description:
Founded in 1873, Adolph Coors Company is the third-largest U.S. 
brewer and the world's eighth-largest brewer. The company sells 
its products in North America, Europe, Latin America, the 
Caribbean and Asia. Coors Brewers Limited is the second-largest 
brewer in the United Kingdom, with the U.K.'s leading brand, 
Carling. Adolph Coors Company stock trades on the New York Stock 
Exchange under the symbol RKY. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
This play definitely belongs in the High Risk/ High Reward 
section, as we are attempting to call a temporary top.  Since 
July 24th, RKY has staged a 22% rally from its lows.  
Traditionally alcohol and brewing companies are defensive plays 
in a recession where the spirit manufacturers can see ascending 
sales as public melancholy increases.  This is evident in RKY, as 
the stock is up 19% for the year.  However, the recent decline in 
the price prior to the most recent rebound rally proves that this 
stock is not bullet proof in regard to the broader market.  When 
the Dow began to fall in June and July, RKY fell with it.  Given 
the upcoming uncertainty of the market, we feel that RKY could be 
a technical short based on the large bounce it has recently had.

Today was the first day in three days that RKY saw negative 
trading.  With the Dow closing up +33.43 points today, RKY 
displayed poor relative strength, potentially illuminating a 
future pullback.  Coors seems to have stalled at resistance in 
the $64.00 level.  Given the large move of late, we are also not 
surprised to see the Stochastics (14,1,3) extended into the 
overbought region.  Although the stock could definitely continue 
higher, the pending Stochastics and resistance at $64.00 could 
cause RKY to pull back.  

Our plan for this trade is to put a trigger below today's low at 
$63.27, where we will enter our hypothetical short.  If the trade 
is activated, our stop will be directly above today's high at 
$64.20.  Out profit target for this trade is $57.51, which 
assumes that the stock will retrace 50% of its recent move.  
Short-term traders may want to target a move to the 50-dma at 
$60.27.  
 
Picked on August xth at $xx.xx <- see text 
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         07/25/02 (confirmed)
 
Chart =



===============
HR Play Updates
===============
 
  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Foundry Networks - FDRY - cls: 9.03 chg: +0.64 stop: 8.13 *new*

Go FDRY!  Our long play was activated this morning when shares 
reached our entry trigger at $8.51.  It was all uphill from 
there, as FDRY climbed for most of the session and finished with 
a 7.6% gain.  The technical picture remains strong, with today's 
rally coming on the third-strongest volume reading of the year.  
Meanwhile the daily stochastics and MACD continue to uptrend.  
Based on today's action, we're going to tighten our stop to 
$8.13, one cent under today's low.  Also note that we'll close 
this play if FDRY trades at or above our official exit price of 
$9.94.  We're expecting that shares will find resistance at the 
$10 level, which is slightly above the 2002 highs.  However, more 
aggressive traders may want to keep tight trailing stops and look 
for a move to the $11 region.

Picked on August 9th at $8.51
Gain since picked:      +0.52
Earnings Date        07/24/02 (confirmed)
 
Chart =


  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Movie Gallery - MOVI - close: 13.72 change: +0.91 stop: 14.10

There was no news concerning MOVI today, but that didn't prevent 
the stock from rallying 7.1%.  Shares may have benefited from 
short-covering ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.  Despite this 
development, MOVI remains safely under our stop at $14.10.  The 
fact that today's move was not backed by strong volume is 
encouraging.  But given the newly-found upside momentum, it 
wouldn't be surprising to see this play stopped out on Monday.  
Whether this occurs will depend on the ability of the bears to 
defend whole-number support at $14.00.  We would not recommend 
any new positions at this time.
 
Picked on August 7th at  $12.49
Results since picked:     -1.23
Earnings Date          08/06/02 (confirmed)
 
Chart =



===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

QUALCOMM Inc - QCOM - close: 25.92 change: +0.97 stop: 26.11

Late this week, QCOM broke near-term resistance at $26.00.   This 
level had repeatedly frustrated the bulls since the beginning of 
the month.  There was no company-specific news to explain QCOM's 
afternoon rally, but rally it did.  This play was closed for an 
8.4% loss when shares reached our stop at $26.11.  Traders still 
short QCOM can be encouraged by the close under $26.00.  However, 
with the MACD and daily stochastics trending higher, it appears 
that there may be more buying on the horizon.  A failed rally at 
the 50-dma ($28.25) may provide another shorting opportunity.  
After all, QCOM has yet to break out of its longer-term downtrend 
and the telecom sector in general continues to be weak.       
 
Picked on August 7th at $24.08 
Results since picked:    -2.03
Earnings Date         07/25/02 (confirmed)
 
Chart =





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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 08-09-2002
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of August 12th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


==================================================
Market Watch for the week of August 12th
==================================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

ABV    AmBev - Companhia      Mon, Aug 12  07:00 am ET       0.18
AMLN  Amylin Pharmaceuticals  Mon, Aug 12  Before the Bell  -0.30
CPG  Chelsea Prop Grp, Inc.   Mon, Aug 12  After the Bell    0.66
FRT  Federal Rlty Ivstmt Trst Mon, Aug 12  After the Bell    0.65
MAC  Macerich Company         Mon, Aug 12  Before the Bell   0.68
MAY  May Department Store     Mon, Aug 12  -----N/A-----     0.34
MLS  Mills                    Mon, Aug 12  Before the Bell   0.71
PUB  PUBLICIS Groupe SA       Mon, Aug 12  -----N/A-----      N/A
PKS  Six Flags, Inc.          Mon, Aug 12  After the Bell    0.16
VAL  Valspar                  Mon, Aug 12  Before the Bell   0.73
WTW  Weight Watchers Intl     Mon, Aug 12  After the Bell    0.37
WMC  WMC Limited              Mon, Aug 12  -----N/A-----      N/A

------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ANF  Abercrombie&Fitch        Tue, Aug 13  4:30 pm ET        0.26
AMAT  Applied Materials       Tue, Aug 13  After the Bell    0.05
ATTC  AT&T Canada             Tue, Aug 13  -----N/A-----      N/A
DE  Deere & Company           Tue, Aug 13  Before the Bell   0.35
ENZN  Enzon                   Tue, Aug 13  Before the Bell   0.24
EOG  EOG Resources            Tue, Aug 13  -----N/A-----     0.17
HPC  Hercules                 Tue, Aug 13  Before the Bell   0.17
JCP  JC Penney                Tue, Aug 13  -----N/A-----    -0.10
NTAP  Network Appliance       Tue, Aug 13  After the Bell    0.04
STOSY  Santos Ltd.            Tue, Aug 13  After the Bell     N/A
TRK  Speedway Motorsports     Tue, Aug 13  Before the Bell   0.80
TECH  Techne                  Tue, Aug 13  Before the Bell   0.25
IPG  The Interpublic Group    Tue, Aug 13  After the Bell    0.39
TIF  Tiffany Co               Tue, Aug 13  Before the Bell   0.22
TJX  TJX Companies            Tue, Aug 13  Before the Bell   0.23
UBS  UBS AG                   Tue, Aug 13  -----N/A-----      N/A
WMT  Wal-Mart                 Tue, Aug 13  Before the Bell   0.45
WGR  Western Gas Resources    Tue, Aug 13  Before the Bell   0.30

-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

AAP    Advance Auto Parts     Wed, Aug 14  After the Bell    0.72
AZ     ALLIANZ AG             Wed, Aug 14  Before the Bell  N/A
ANN    AnnTaylor Stores       Wed, Aug 14  After the Bell 0.32
BRL    Barr Laboratories      Wed, Aug 14  -----N/A-----  0.85
BEAS   BEA Systems            Wed, Aug 14  After the Bell 0.06
BRCD   Brocade Comm Systems   Wed, Aug 14  After the Bell 0.08
RIO    Companhia Vale RioDoce Wed, Aug 14  -----N/A-----  -0.33
CSR    Credit Suisse Group    Wed, Aug 14  Before the Bell  N/A
EON    E.ON AG                Wed, Aug 14  -----N/A-----  N/A
ERJ    Embraer-Emp Bras Aero  Wed, Aug 14  -----N/A-----  0.32
FD     Federated Dprtmnt Strs Wed, Aug 14  -----N/A-----  0.61
FOX    Fox Entertainment      Wed, Aug 14  07:30 am ET  0.06
INTU   Intuit                 Wed, Aug 14  After the Bell -0.12
JHX    James Hardie Inds      Wed, Aug 14  -----N/A-----  N/A
LZB    La-Z-Boy               Wed, Aug 14  Before the Bell  0.26
NWS    News Corporation       Wed, Aug 14  07:30 am ET  0.15
JWN    Nordstrom              Wed, Aug 14  After the Bell 0.37
PSS    Payless ShoeSources    Wed, Aug 14  Before the Bell  1.85
UBB    Unibanco-UniaoBancBras Wed, Aug 14  -----N/A-----  0.62
V      Vivendi Universal      Wed, Aug 14  -----N/A-----  N/A

------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

AMCR  Amcor Limited           Thu, Aug 15  -----N/A-----      N/A
AEOS  American Eagle Outfit   Thu, Aug 15  -----N/A-----     0.15
ADI   Analog Devices          Thu, Aug 15  After the Bell    0.15
ADSK  Autodesk                Thu, Aug 15  -----N/A-----     0.11
DELL  Dell                    Thu, Aug 15  After the Bell    0.19
DV    DeVry                   Thu, Aug 15  -----N/A-----     0.22
DISH  EchoStar Comm           Thu, Aug 15  06:00 am ET       0.06
EL    Estee Lauder            Thu, Aug 15  Before the Bell   0.18
GPS   Gap Inc.                Thu, Aug 15  After the Bell    0.03
HRL   Hormel Foods            Thu, Aug 15  Before the Bell   0.27
SJM   J. M. Smucker Company   Thu, Aug 15  -----N/A-----     0.42
KSS   Kohl`s                  Thu, Aug 15  After the Bell    0.34
NVDA  NVIDIA                  Thu, Aug 15  After the Bell    0.13
NVDA  NVIDIA                  Thu, Aug 15  After the Bell    0.13
NVDA  NVIDIA                  Thu, Aug 15  After the Bell    0.13
TGT   Target Corporation      Thu, Aug 15  -----N/A-----     0.37

------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

NAV  Navistar International   Fri, Aug 16  Before the Bell  -0.28


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

FVB     First Virginia Banks      3:2      08/09       08/12
WSBK    Wilshire State Bank       2:1      08/15       08/16
SSD     Simpson Manufacturing     2:1      08/16       08/19


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

The week of August 12th is going to be a wild one with the FOMC 
meeting on Tuesday.  This list should help to identify other 
important events to watch for!

==============================================================
                       -For-           

Monday, 08/12/02
----------------

Tuesday, 08/13/02
-----------------
Retail Sales (BB)       Jul  Forecast:   1.2%  Previous:     1.1%
Retail Sales ex-auto(BB)Jul  Forecast:   0.3%  Previous:     0.4%
FOMC Meeting (AB)

Wednesday, 08/14/02
-------------------
Business Inventories(BB)Jun  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:     0.2%

Thursday, 08/15/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   08/10  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:     376K
Industrial Prduction(DM)Jul  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:     0.8%
Capacity Utilization(BB)Jul  Forecast:  76.2%  Previous:    76.1%
Philadelphia Fed (DM)   Aug  Forecast:    8.5  Previous:      6.6
FOMC Minutes

Friday, 08/16/02
----------------
CPI (BB)                Jul  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:     0.1%
Core CPI (BB)           Jul  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:     0.1%
Housing Starts (BB)     Jul  Forecast: 1.670M  Previous:   1.672M
Building Permits (BB)   Jul  Forecast: 1.680M  Previous:   1.700M
Mich Sentiment-Prel.(DM)Aug  Forecast:   89.0  Previous:     88.1


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

EME     Emcor Group Inc.           53.01     +2.21
FDP     Fresh Del Monte Produce    26.50     +0.81
FNF     Fidelity National Fncl     30.67     +1.53
LEH     Lehman Brothers            58.50     +1.25
BSC     Bear Sterns Companies      64.11     +2.24

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CYBX    Cyberonics Inc.            16.52     +1.40
ALKS    Alkermes Inc.               7.70     +1.51
OO      Oakley Inc.                13.75     +1.60
HSII    Heidrick & Struggle        18.81     +1.54

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UCHB    Ucbh Holdings              40.66     +1.07
FNF     Fidelity National Fncl     30.67     +1.53
PPP     Pogo Producing             32.40     +1.55
ATW     Atwood Oceanics Inc.       32.29     +1.06
SGY     Stone Energy               36.15     +1.05

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SSS     Sovran Self Storage Inc.   30.65     -1.40
SCSC    Scansource Inc.            52.15     -1.60
VITL    Vital Signs Inc.           30.61     -2.14
CYH     Community Health Systems   24.01     -1.92
BLUD    Immucor Inc.               21.04     -1.87

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

PCL     Plum Creek Timber REIT     26.40     -2.34
PGC     Peapack-Gladstone Fncl     59.60     -1.90




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=================================================================
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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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