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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 08/14/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter              Wednesday 08-14-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================


In section one:

Market Wrap:      Certifiably Angus?
Watch List:       BMET, IGT, JNJ, MO, NVDA, and more!
Play of the Day:  Big, Blue and Breaking Out!

*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************      
08-14-2002               High     Low     Volume Advance/Decl
DJIA     8743.31 +260.92 8748.29  8353.07 1722 mln  2017/730
NASDAQ   1334.30 + 61.22 1334.31  1265.19 1053 mln  2193/1065
S&P 100   464.44 + 19.14  465.05  441.42   totals   4210/1795
S&P 500   919.62 + 35.41  920.21  876.20
RUS 2000  389.41 + 11.65  389.41  374.03
DJ TRANS 2306.12 + 41.89 2309.25  2212.39
VIX        40.46 + 1.10    42.90  39.98
VIXN       56.29 - 2.41    59.13  56.09 
Put/Call Ratio 0.82
*******************************************************************
 

===========
Market Wrap
===========

What a day!  A substantial end-of-day rally crowned today's 
trading, allowing the Dow to close +260.92 points at 8743.31.  
The Nasdaq leaped 65.02 points to stage a 5.1% rally, finishing 
the day at 1334.30.  NYSE advancers outpaced decliners 2017 to 
730; Nasdaq winners triumphed over losers 2193 to 1064.  1.7 
billion shares were exchanged on the Big Board, while 1.6 billion 
shares changed hands on the Nasdaq.  

Was today a certification rally?  No one can really answer that 
question for sure, though the CEO/CFO certifications have 
certainly poured in.  For a list of all who have signed off on 
their books, click here: 
http://www.sec.gov/rules/extra/ceocfo.htm  

Today's deadline for companies to certify their books was 5:30pm 
EST.  At the time of this publication 632 corporations had 
certified their books, while 63 had yet to provide signed 
statements.  America Online sent out a press release minutes 
after sending in their certification, stating that the company 
"might" have a few accounting irregularities.  

Other theories on todays rally point to an asset allocation 
shuffle from bonds to equities.  The 5-Year Treasury bond fell on 
the day, with the yield rising +0.44 to 3.182%.  Contrarily, the 
30-Year Treasury note rose with the yield falling to 4.883%, a 39 
year low.  One of the questions on trader's minds is whether 
long-term yields can continue to go lower.  However, if long-term 
rates continue to drop like today, and short-term rates rally, 
the product could be foreshadowing of tougher times ahead.  A 
normal yield curve describes interest rates where lenders will 
only allow long term borrowing if they are reciprocated at higher 
rates of interest.  Thus, in a normal yield curve, short-term 
rates are below long-term rates.  What happens if short-term 
rates exceed longer-term rates?  The result is known as an 
"inverted yield curve" or "negative" yield curve.  This situation 
is relatively infrequent, and usually precedes a recession.  
Although a negative yield curve IS possible in our current 
market, in the past it has ONLY happened prior to a bull market, 
where tightening conditions exist.  Currently, our yield curve is 
"normal" and we would like to see it stay that way.  What we do 
not want to see are continued days like today where short-term 
rates rise, and long term rates fall.  

Today's bond trading depicts a story where long-term investors 
still prefer 4.83%, rather than risking their capital in the 
equity markets!  On the contrary, short-term institutional 
investors could have been saying that they would rather risk 
their capital in the stock market, than settle for more secure 
Treasuries yielding a mere 3.1% or less.  Perhaps short-term 
traders are testing the water of the equity markets with a toe 
before completely jumping in?  Speaking with a institutional 
bonds salesman today (who preferred to stay anonymous), his 
thoughts were that investors could soon begin fleeing treasuries, 
as they are beginning to get "sticker shock" on how little they 
are receiving from yields.  He further stated that investors 
could be leaving the Treasury markets in search of "safe issues 
that don't have a lot of hot hair".  He specifically mentioned a 
billion dollar deal that came forward one week ago from Safeway 
(NYS:SWY).  His theory is: "companies which provide simple 
products on a macro level (without accounting problems) could see 
their corporate debt become highly coveted.     

Table of: Treasury Yields, Today.


 



News: Some Old, Some New

Yesterday's FOMC meeting certainly proved to be interesting.  The 
Fed announced that it would not change rates, leaving the Fed 
Funds Rate at 1.75%.  The Fed said its bias had moved toward 
weakening/easing rates, which could indicate a quarter or half 
point rate cut to come in September.  

After the close yesterday, Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT) 
announced that it had topped Wall Streets earnings and revenue 
targets.  The Chipmaker was able to beat estimates in light of 
sales shrinking 7% over the last year.  The company came under 
fire, as they projected a decline in orders, but flat to slightly 
higher sales.  Orders are expected to decrease 5 to 15 percent.  
AMAT staged a +7.13% rally today, closing up +0.96 cents at 
$14.42.  The rebound was part of a broader tech rally aided by 
Network Appliance (Nasdaq: NTAP), which soared 27 percent after 
the company beating earnings expectations and getting an upgrade 
from Solomon Smith Barney.   

United Airlines (NYSE:UAL) sent out a press release stating that 
the airline giant might have to file chapter-11 bankruptcy.  UAL 
is giving itself 30 days to conclude talks with the government 
and labor unions, where it hopes to work out financial plans to 
restructure the ailing company.   

After todays close Brocade (Nasdaq: BRCD) reported that it had 
met analyst expectations with EPS at 8 cents per share.  Company 
officials also kept financial targets afloat at 10 cents per 
share for the fourth quarter, stated that they continued to be 
optimistic about the storage area networking market.  BRCD was up 
8% in after-hours trading.  

Economic News

In economic news today, the market brought forth Bankruptcy 
Filings, MTIS Business Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications, 
and Oil and Gas Inventories.  

Personal bankruptcy filings increased in the second quarter, 
setting a record for quarterly filings.   However, business 
filings fell when compared to both last year and one quarter ago.  
The decrease in business filings could be a sign that the bulk of 
economic shakeout has passed, and the economy could be seeing the 
initial phases of recovery.  

Business inventories met estimates, increasing 0.2%.  The mild 
growth in inventory numbers is the result of increased sales and 
demand by retailers and wholesalers.  

The MBA numbers have come down -5.1% from last weeks all time 
high.  The demand for re-financing and mortgages is still 
considerably astounding, and indicates that the housing market 
will still stay strong through the summer.  However, there is 
data surfacing that indicates coastal metro properties are 
continuing to rise above levels that would be supported if 
interest rates ever ascend over 7%.  This could be the "bubble" 
that has been rumored, and could cause a quick cooling of the 
housing markets.     
   
Oil and Gas inventories decreased this week from the last, and 
are beginning to depict very bullish attitudes for crude.  Over 
the last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API), has 
witnessed a substantial draw of crude oil and finished products, 
with demand for gasoline related products being particularly 
high.  Bottom line: Inventories are down, and oil companies are 
seeing increased demand.  

If we look at the chart for September Crude Futures, the recent 
move has definitely been backed by eager bulls.  Today witnessed 
a 52-week (high?), pushing crude futures to the top of the 
ascending wedge.  In some scenarios, an ascending wedge is a 
prelude to a future breakout, usually in the last 1/3 of the 
wedge before the trend lines come to a pinnacle.  

Chart of: September Crude Futures, Daily.




Obviously the market seems slightly mixed in its uncertainty to 
pick a direction right now.  One piece of the puzzle is the U.S. 
Dollar, which is highlighted in the chart below.  Rallying from 
the low of $103.54 on July 17th, the greenback has been trying to 
gain strength since.  However, the benchmark currency has also 
broken its most recent uptrend, falling back into support on the 
$106-106.25 area. This move can be one of two things.  First, it 
could potentially be a healthy pullback allowing the Dollar some 
room to breathe in light of the recent move.  If we draw a 
Fibonacci retracement (not shown) on the recent rebound from 
103.54 to 108.70, the current pullback to the 106 area is almost 
50%.  Technical chartists might tell you that this is par for the 
course, and now that the Dollar has cooled some, it is ready to 
rally once again.  On the other side of the coin, bears might 
argue that the breach of the ascending trend line is a sign that 
the rally was just a bounce in a larger down trend.  Bears would 
also point out that Stochastics look weak, and could bring 
technical sellers off the fence!  No matter which side of the 
market you are on, there are a few technical points to watch for.  
A break under $106.00 could cause the greenback to drag its feet, 
where it could quickly drop into $105.50 and $105.00.  If the 
dollar does hold support here, potential short-term resistance 
points above are at $107.00 and 107.60.  Time will tell.    

Chart of: U.S. Dollar, Daily.




Chart of: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Daily.  





The Dow chart demonstrates that we are still at a reasonably 
critical juncture.  The Dow is trying to break resistance and 
find higher ground outside of the current channel.  However, the 
index is finding itself with increasing Stochastics, and 
continued volatile intra-day swings.  If the Dow is able to make 
a solid positive move tomorrow, it could be signaling a potential 
trend change on the horizon.  The current ascending trend has 
characterized the Dow's move from its recent low on July 24th.  
Although a large move up could help to bring buyers off the 
fence, a temporary pullback could also be in store, allowing the 
oscillators to cool off.  Keep in mind that there are still many, 
many bears out there that are waiting for any bad news to 
surface.  The bear camp will not go quietly after one month of a 
rebound rally, so be prepared for some potentially vigorous 
range-bound trading.       

With yesterdays FOMC meeting and today's SEC certification behind 
us, we have entered waters that are now solely dependant on 
future economic news.   Earnings are also coming to an end, thus 
allowing the market to find its true range.  The question is 
whether the 632 companies that have certified will be enough to 
create bullish sentiment in the broader investing public.  
Judging by this afternoon's rally, we would have to say that it 
certainly could be.  What the markets will need is a sustained 
rally with good economic news.  Further, the U.S. dollar would 
need to find its legs and regain more lost ground to the upside.  
If the market begins to witness substantial portfolio re-
allocations from debt to equity, brace yourselves, as the 
reshuffle could be quite a volatile ride.  All in all, it is 
probably too early to tell for sure just yet.  However, proper 
portfolio diversification is always a good idea during uncertain 
times such as these.   

Editor
Mark Whistler


Questions or comments?
mwhistler@PremierInvestor.net


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Biomet Inc - BMET - close: 29.10 change: +2.22

WHAT TO WATCH: The 200-dma ($28.51) has frustrated BMET bulls for 
several months.  Today's close above that moving average has 
cleared the way for a test of intermediate-term resistance at 
$30.00.  Shares may slice though this level with ease if the 
bears are faced with continued rally in the RXH.X healthcare 
index.  Of course, BMET may be due for some backing and filling 
to consolidate today's 8.1% gain.  A pullback to the 200-dma 
would offer traders a chance to enter long positions, with an 
initial profit target near the March high of $32.68.




--- 

Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 59.80 change: +1.34

WHAT TO WATCH: IGT has been unable to break out of its eight-
month descending regression channel with any real conviction.  
Shares pierced the upper band today, though bears will point out 
that the last time this occurred (in early March) the stock was 
soon hit with heavy selling.  The overbought daily stochastics 
suggest that a rollover may be imminent.  Resistance looms 
overhead at $60.00 and the 200-dma at $61.21.  A break below 
today's low ($57.45) may present a possible action point for 
aggressive bears.  The channel's midline near $53.00 would be a 
reasonable profit target to shoot for.  On a related note, shares 
of fellow gaming stocks HET and MGG are also looking top-heavy.




--- 

Johnson & Johnson - JNJ - close: 55.50 change: +2.13

WHAT TO WATCH: It's been a thrilling three weeks for shareholders 
of JNJ.  The stock gapped sharply lower on July 19th on overblown 
concerns of accounting irregularities.  Shares not only recouped 
all of those losses, but have also plowed through the 50-dma at 
$52.75.  Today's action saw another positive technical 
development, as shares broke above resistance at $55.00.  Bullish 
entries could be evaluated on a move above $56.00, which would 
help to allay concerns of overhead resistance on the p-n-f chart.  
Short-term traders could shoot for a move to the 200-dma at 
$58.43, while those with a longer-term outlook might look for a 
rally to the May highs near $62.00.




---

Phillip Morris - MO - close: 51.36 change: +2.01

WHAT TO WATCH: Sssssmokin'!  MO shot past both psychological 
resistance at $50.00 and the 200-dma ($50.13) on Wednesday.  
Shares may have benefited from last night's announcement that the 
company would certify its financial statements.  Of course, the 
skyrocketing Dow Jones didn't hurt the bulls' chances either.  
Although the stock is looking somewhat overextended, a continued 
broader market rally could see MO trading at the $56 area in 
short order.  Bullish entries could be gauged on a move above 
$51.01, or alternatively, a pullback to $50.00.  The first 
strategy is best left to more aggressive traders. 




---

NVIDIA Corp - NVDA - close: 9.59 change: +0.58

WHAT TO WATCH: NVDIA reports earnings on Thursday night.  If the 
reaction is positive, NVDA may be a bullish candidate on a break 
above $10.00.  Shares have trended steadily higher over the past 
week but have been unable to move over this level of 
psychological resistance.  Good news in the form of a strong 
earnings report could be just what NVDA needs to break out.  Wall 
Street will be paying a lot of attention to what the company has 
to say about future demand.  The stock gapped sharply lower on 
July 31st following an earnings warning.  A break though the 
$10.00 level could quickly send shares to the bottom of this gap 
at $12.00.  Of course, we would not recommend taking positions 
ahead of NVIDIA's announcement.




---

QLogic - QLGC - close: 33.77 change: +1.63

WHAT TO WATCH: With Brocade reporting earnings tonight, the 
storage sector could see a good deal of volatility on Thursday.  
At this point it looks like the bears will be on the defensive.  
BRCD not only met Q3 estimates, but also reaffirmed its Q4 
outlook.  The company also said it saw growth in the OEM 
business.  This news had both BRCD and QLGC moving sharply higher 
in after-hours trading.  QLGC bounced today from its multi-month 
descending trendline and appears to have plenty of room to run.  
Aggressive traders could target a move above $36.00, with an 
initial profit target near the 50-dma at $39.98.  Granted, that 
represents a large move from today's low.  But as the steep 
rallies in March and May have shown, panicked short-covering can 
often create huge moves in a relatively short amount of time.


 

--- 

Photon Dynamics - PHTN - close: 19.97 change: +1.07

WHAT TO WATCH: A violation of critical support at $20.00 had PHTN 
trading at new 52-weeks lows on Tuesday.  Today's tech rally and 
fresh news of a $25 million stock buyback program conspired to 
give the stock a 5.6% boost, but shares were unable to close 
above $20.00.  Short entries can be targeted on a rollover from 
this level or a move under yesterday's low at $18.70.  Such a 
trade would require an aggressive strategy, due to the recent 
volatility in the chip sector.  Today's action on the SOX.X is a 
perfect example of this pattern, as the index erased yesterday's 
losses.  However, PHTN could eventually reach the $17.00 region 
if the bears regain control.




---

Teva Pharmaceutical - TEVA - close: 67.93 change: -0.60

WHAT TO WATCH: Nice breakout!  TEVA has staged a powerful rebound 
from its July lows and is now trading near the best levels of 
2002.  Although the bears will argue that shares are already 
overextended, a move above Tuesday's high ($68.98) could create 
another round of short covering.  Throw in a continued rise in 
the DRG.X pharmaceutical index, and you've got the recipe for a 
retest of the 52-week highs near $74.  P-n-f chartists will also 
note that TEVA has recently broken above bearish resistance at 
$66.00 and is signaling a double-top buy signal.  





===============
Play-of-the-Day (New Tech BULLISH play)
===============

Intl Business Machines - IBM - cls: 74.92 chg: +3.02 stop: *text*

Company Description:
IBM is the world's largest information technology company, with 
80 years of leadership in helping businesses to innovate. IBM is 
a leading provider of e-business solutions and is dedicated to 
helping customers, IBM Business Partners, and developers leverage 
the potential of the Internet and network computing across a wide 
range of businesses and industries. The company offers a host of 
cross-industry and industry specific solutions designed to meet 
the needs of growing companies. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The stock market excels at two things: Sucking money out of 
undisciplined traders' accounts, and defying common sense.  The 
second characteristic was on display today, as IBM led the Dow 
Jones to a 260-point gain.  Under normal circumstances this 
wouldn't have seemed that unusual.  What was surprising was the 
fact that IBM's 4.2% rally followed last night's revelation that 
the company would be laying off over 15,000 employees.  Big Blue 
had made some vague comments about this in their most recent 
earnings report, but did not give any hint that the downsizing 
would be this extensive.  It was only when the SEC released the 
company's 10-Q report that the 5% workforce reduction was 
revealed.  Talk about a surprise!  Common sense dictates that 
investors (who loathe uncertainty and negative surprises) 
would've hammered the stock for heavy losses.  But of course, 
this wasn't the case.  Perhaps Wall Street viewed the layoffs as 
a smart move that would help the bottom line.  Or maybe it was 
simply a beneficiary of the "rising tide lifts all boats" 
phenomenon.

While the catalyst for IBM's rally can be debated, the technical 
picture is looking distinctly bullish.  Shares have been 
rangebound since late-June, trading between $65-$74.  IBM broke 
out of that range today and briefly pierced psychological 
resistance at $75.00.  If the Dow continues towards the 9000 
level, we could see shares reach the $80.00 level within a matter 
of days.  This offers a potential profit target for short-term 
traders.  However, given the recent breakout from its 
consolidation pattern (and lack of a sell-off on last night's 
apparent bad news), we think IBM could eventually reach the 
$85.00 region.  From a longer-term perspective, the bulls can 
also be encouraged by the recent MACD crossover and uptrending 
daily stochastics on the weekly chart.  In order to confirm a 
continuation of today's upward momentum, we will not enter this 
hypothetical trade until IBM trades at or above $75.06.  If we're 
triggered our stop will be set at $69.96.  This will allow IBM 
plenty of breathing room while simultaneously limiting our 
downside risk to 6.7%.  We'll also be protected by the 50-dma at 
$71.47 and psychological support at $70.00.  More aggressive 
traders could use a 10% stop at $67.55.  

Picked on August xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date          07/17/02 (confirmed)
 





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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 08-14-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================


In section two:

Net Bulls Tech Stocks
  New Plays              IBM (Bullish)
  Triggered Plays        EXPE (Bearish)
Active Trader Non-Tech Stocks
  Stop Adjustments:      BLL (Bullish)
High Risk/High Reward
  Triggered Plays        NSM (Bearish)

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Net Bulls Tech Stocks (NB) section
=================================================================

===============
NB  NEW PLAYS
===============  
 
NEW BULLISH PLAY
================

Intl Business Machines - IBM - cls: 74.92 chg: +3.02 stop: *text*

Company Description:
IBM is the world's largest information technology company, with 
80 years of leadership in helping businesses to innovate. IBM is 
a leading provider of e-business solutions and is dedicated to 
helping customers, IBM Business Partners, and developers leverage 
the potential of the Internet and network computing across a wide 
range of businesses and industries. The company offers a host of 
cross-industry and industry specific solutions designed to meet 
the needs of growing companies. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The stock market excels at two things: Sucking money out of 
undisciplined traders' accounts, and defying common sense.  The 
second characteristic was on display today, as IBM led the Dow 
Jones to a 260-point gain.  Under normal circumstances this 
wouldn't have seemed that unusual.  What was surprising was the 
fact that IBM's 4.2% rally followed last night's revelation that 
the company would be laying off over 15,000 employees.  Big Blue 
had made some vague comments about this in their most recent 
earnings report, but did not give any hint that the downsizing 
would be this extensive.  It was only when the SEC released the 
company's 10-Q report that the 5% workforce reduction was 
revealed.  Talk about a surprise!  Common sense dictates that 
investors (who loathe uncertainty and negative surprises) 
would've hammered the stock for heavy losses.  But of course, 
this wasn't the case.  Perhaps Wall Street viewed the layoffs as 
a smart move that would help the bottom line.  Or maybe it was 
simply a beneficiary of the "rising tide lifts all boats" 
phenomenon.

While the catalyst for IBM's rally can be debated, the technical 
picture is looking distinctly bullish.  Shares have been 
rangebound since late-June, trading between $65-$74.  IBM broke 
out of that range today and briefly pierced psychological 
resistance at $75.00.  If the Dow continues towards the 9000 
level, we could see shares reach the $80.00 level within a matter 
of days.  This offers a potential profit target for short-term 
traders.  However, given the recent breakout from its 
consolidation pattern (and lack of a sell-off on last night's 
apparent bad news), we think IBM could eventually reach the 
$85.00 region.  From a longer-term perspective, the bulls can 
also be encouraged by the recent MACD crossover and uptrending 
daily stochastics on the weekly chart.  In order to confirm a 
continuation of today's upward momentum, we will not enter this 
hypothetical trade until IBM trades at or above $75.06.  If we're 
triggered our stop will be set at $69.96.  This will allow IBM 
plenty of breathing room while simultaneously limiting our 
downside risk to 6.7%.  We'll also be protected by the 50-dma at 
$71.47 and psychological support at $70.00.  More aggressive 
traders could use a 10% stop at $67.55.  

Picked on August xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date          07/17/02 (confirmed)
 



===============
NB Play Updates
===============  

Triggered Plays
---------------

Expedia, Inc - EXPE - close: 49.74 change: +2.40 stop: 51.11

EXPE succumbed to selling pressure early this morning and quickly 
reached our entry trigger at $46.99.  The stock proceeded to 
follow the NASDAQ higher but was unable to break above 
psychological resistance at $50.00.  Our stop is safely above 
this level, at $51.11.  Aggressive traders can target entries on 
a rollover from current levels, but be sure to first confirm 
weakness in the broader market.




=================================================================
Active Trader/Non-tech Stocks (AT) section
=================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============  

Stop Adjustments
----------------

Starbucks - SBUX - close: 20.48 change: +1.54 stop: 18.82 *new*

SBUX exploded for an 8.1% gain today and blew through what had 
been stubborn resistance at $20.00.  The bullish momentum seemed 
to be a result of the broader market's rally rather than any 
company-specific news.  At this time we're going to move our stop 
up to $18.82, just under today's low.  We're also going to lower 
our profit-target to $21.75, slightly below the converging 50-dma 
and 200-dma.  This would represent a gain of 12.1% from our 
picked price.  A pullback to $20.00 might present an opportunity 
to open new bullish positions.





=================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
=================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============  

Triggered Plays
---------------

National Semi - NSM - close: 16.82 change: +0.91 stop: 17.32

This short play was triggered on Wednesday morning when NSM hit 
our action point at $15.62.  Everything was proceeding nicely 
until just after 1:00, when investors returned from lunch in a 
buying mood.  The stock finished the day with a 5.7% gain was 
outpaced by the 7.7% rally on the SOX.X.  Hopefully this relative 
weakness will rear its head tomorrow if/when the broader market 
reverses course.  Now that this trade is active, our stop is set 
at $17.32.




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh 
ideas.  New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UAG     United Auto Group          15.04     +1.04
AEOS    American Eagle Outfitters  16.15     +0.65
TLB     Talbots Inc.               30.85     +1.65
ANF     Abercrombie & Fitch        24.27     +2.33
MBRS    Memberworks                15.73     +0.82

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name              Close     Change 

VGR     Vector Group Ltd.         16.01     +2.00
CKFR    Checkfree Corporation     10.53     +3.02
NTAP    Network Appliance Inc.     9.00     +1.95
CEFT    Concord Efs               19.69     +1.01
TTIL    Tti Team Telecom          15.25     +1.25

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

FOSL    Fossil Inc.                20.80     +2.15
CCR     Countrywide Credit         54.60     +2.50
PAYX    Paychex                    23.33     +1.76
RMD     Resmed                     33.24     +5.22
INTL    Inter-Tel Inc.             21.86     +1.42
------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UTX     United Technologies Corp.  61.35     -1.12
CRE     Carramerica Reality Group  25.50     -1.10
SRCL    Stericycle Inc.            29.11     -3.11
SPOT    Panansat Corp.             20.12     -1.52

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

NC     Nacco Industries Inc.       48.08     -0.97
IMN    Imation Corporation         30.85     -0.25




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