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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 08/23/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-23-2002
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Day of Disappointment, but Still a Bullish Week
Play-of-the-Day:  Fading Financials
Watch List:       A Flock of Stocks 
Market Sentiment: No Faith

=================================================================


******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
        WE 8-23          WE 8-16          WE 8-09          WE 8-02
DOW     8872.96 + 94.90  8778.06 + 32.61  8745.45 +432.32  + 48.74
Nasdaq  1380.57 + 19.56  1361.01 + 54.89  1306.12 + 58.20  - 14.20
S&P-100  474.50 +  6.06   468.44 +  9.62   458.82 + 24.77  +  7.12
S&P-500  940.86 + 12.09   928.77 + 20.13   908.64 + 44.40  + 11.40
W5000   8876.89 +106.61  8770.28 +198.41  8571.87 +385.31  + 94.93
RUT      400.13 +  4.16   395.97 +  7.52   388.45 + 12.00  -  5.81
TRAN    2394.32 + 54.92  2339.40 +  7.52  2351.65 +149.62  - 52.76
VIX       32.81 -  0.01    32.82 -  6.54    39.36 -  6.03  +  4.95
VXN       47.62 -  3.03    50.65 -  8.05    58.70 -  6.74  -  3.58
TRIN       2.87             1.52             0.90             1.47
Put/Call   0.80             0.51             0.69             0.93
******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Day of disappointment, but still a bullish week

It was a day of disappointment for most bulls as the major market 
averages all turned red ahead of the weekend, but the averages 
still posted a bullish numbers for the week.

Friday's action had bulls trying to keep their balance as 
Treasuries were finding buying before stocks ever opened for 
trading and as the session wore on, cash rotated away from stocks 
and back toward the perceived safety of Treasuries.

Its rather "amazing" that my U.S Market Watch list of market 
averages and major indexes showed all but one component with 
green on the screen and today's action was just the inverse.  
Today's results had all sectors in the red, except one, the CBOE 
Internet Index (INX.X) $76.05 +0.4%.

It is notable that yesterday's "red sector" that had the 
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) trading against the broader market 
bullishness lead the sector declines today with a 20.99 point 
loss (-5.87%) and a finish at 546.88.  The 50-day moving average 
that a sector bulls was concerned about looks to have been 
attracting to much bearish attention and subscriber that were 
watching our play list may have taken trigger action point 
semiconductor names Maxim Integrated Products (NASDAQ:MXIM) 
$35.52 -5.05% and QLogic (NASDAQ:QLGC) $36.60 -4.53%.

I've shown charts of MXIM in recent session updates, so tonight 
lets take a quick look at QLogic's (QLGC) bar chart and what a 
bear wants to see develop as it relates to the play list's 
bearish profile.

QLogic Chart - Daily Interval




While the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) spent about 4-days hovering 
around its trending lower 50-day, QLogic's visit was a brief 2-
day affair.  Thursday's action gave traders a nice little short-
term consolidation type range from which to set up the trade.

This morning's notes out of Goldman Sachs that its channel checks 
indicated Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) $8.75 -4.68% might be 
about to cancel significant orders that had been previously 
placed with their equipment supplier, there was little question 
that the tests of many 50-day moving averages were going to show 
failed rally attempts in the group.  Goldman believes that 
equipment-maker Novellus' (NASDAQ:NVLS) $26.78 -7.65% mid-quarter 
update an August 29th is likely to reflect some incremental 
weakness from TSM.

In separate notes, Merrill Lynch was also cautious on TSM due to 
high levels of inventories and potential downside risk to orders 
in Q3 and Q4.  Adding further insult to injury was Bear Stearns 
saying that Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) $17.96 -6.21% quarter is 
tracking toward the low end of estimates and Bank of America 
slashed estimates on a bunch of chip-equipment names.

As we've talked about in recent update, equipment stocks are only 
going to benefit from a chip-makers seeing a pickup in demand.  
Today's news of TSM potentially canceling chip-equipment orders 
has many chipmakers like QLogic (QLGC) and Maxim Integrated 
(MXIM) back on the questionable list as to the strength of 
current business conditions.  The charts seem to reflect that 
uncertainty too.

If bearish, don't be complacent and traders should be willing to 
trade targets.  You and I both "know" there were a lot of 
"uneducated" bears doing some full position shorting in QLGC 
below $35 when the bullish % charts were deeply oversold and 
those that held their full position shorts up to higher levels on 
the quick rebound will likely be looking to cover some positions 
on a pullback.  If our profiled bearish target in QLogic (QLGC) 
of $33.50, a $4.35/share gain (from today's open) might not look 
like much, but would represent a decent 11.49% gain.  Then 
compare that to an annual YIELD found in the 5-year Treasury 
YIELD ($FVX.X) 3.296%, which found strong buying today.

Today's negativity in the equity markets wasn't only attributed 
to the above-mentioned notes out of Goldman Sachs and Merrill 
Lynch.

Poster child for potential conflicts of interest

What looks like a poster child case of conflict of interest was 
today's news that an expanded Citigroup (NYSE:C) $34.00 -3.35% 
investigation by the New York Attorney General into past analyst 
"upgrade" favors to AT&T (NYSE:T) $12.22 -1.29% to potentially be 
able to close a lucrative investment banking deal of nearly $45 
milion, sent renewed shockwaves of distrust through investor's 
bones.  

The Wall Street Journal reported that Citigroup's (C) Salomon 
Smith Barney unit won a $45 million financing assignment from 
AT&T (T) and questioned what role Citigroup's CEO Sanford Weill 
may have played.  Salomon was selected as a lead underwriter in 
2000 for the $10.6 billion AT&T Wireless (NYSE:ATW) $31.34 -5.91% 
only after Jack Grubman upgraded his rating on T to a "buy" after 
being bearish on T for years.  The "change in attitude" by 
Grubman came after Weill, a T board member, allegedly nudged 
Grubman to give T a fresh hearing as to its strategic prowess.

Of the three men mentioned above, only one is still currently 
employed.  Even Mr. Weill's future with Citigroup (C) is in doubt 
after Citigroup was served a subpoena last week by the House 
Financial Services Committee demanding documents detailing any 
purchase or acquisition of IPO shares by WorldCom execs.

Beetle's Balanced Benchmark - From 07/31/02 close




There wasn't much "good news" today and the Beetle's Balanced 
Benchmark fund reflects today's negativity toward stocks and a 
move toward bonds.  On a daily percentage basis, longer-term 
Treasuries as depicted by the Lehman 20-yr IShares (AMEX:TLT) 
$85.90 +0.98% benefited the most.

Tech sector weakness in the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) -5.87%, 
Networking Index (NWX.X) -5.24%, Biotechnology (BTK.X) -4.01% and 
Wireless Telecom (YLS.X) -4.29%, weighed on our non-strategically 
balanced asset class in the NASDAQ-100 Index Tracking Stocks 
(AMEX:QQQ) $25.15 -3.86%, which has a great deal of exposure to 
these different technology sub sectors.

As mentioned earlier, while the bears won Friday's battle, the 
bulls still held some gains by week's end.  Here's a look at the 
weekly percentage gains and losses of the various market averages 
and indexes.

Major Averages / Indexes - Weekly & Quarterly Changes




In last Friday's wrap, I felt equity bulls needed mom to send 
them some money from the Treasury bond market as depicted by the 
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) in our weekly sector watch.  While bulls 
got a 2-day injection of cash from Treasuries on Wednesday and 
Thursday, Thursday's Treasury selling seemingly had mom writing a 
bad check as Treasuries prices gained back all of Thursday's 
losses and stocks suffered the consequences today.

While semiconductors got most of this week's attention, it was 
the precious metals stocks as depicted by the Gold/Silver Index 
(XAU.X) that traded the weakest.  There were brief sign of intra-
day strength from the sector today, but by session's end, the 
group as a whole fell 2.94%.

Commercial airline stocks as depicted by the Airline Index 
(XAL.X) 49.59 -2.82% gave back some of their robust weekly gains 
today, but not much considering such a powerful move, with the 
bulk of it coming on Wednesday.  JP Morgan said this week that 
the group had most likely found its bottom given structural 
change, although meaningful appreciation is unlikely until the 
first-half due to continued losses and slow revenue recovery.  JP 
Morgan's top pick is Northwest Airlines (NASDAQ:NWAC) $10.90 
-4.80%, followed by Delta (NYSE:DAL) $18.97 -5.15%, Continental 
Airlines (NYSE:CAL) $10.80 -1.9%, AMR Corp. (NYSE:AMR) $11.14 
-3.88% and UAL Corp. (NYSE:UAL) $3.75 +1.90%.

I personally made a slightly different type of intermediate-term 
bet in the group this week, but in the options market on shares 
of Frontier Airlines (NASDAQ:FRNT) $7.22 -14.04% in the out-the-
money November $10 calls (FUOKB) which currently trade for about 
$0.55 per contract.  1 call options contract give the options 
trader the RIGHT, but not the OBLIGATION to buy the stock at 
$10.00 per share on or before November expiration, which is 
November 15th.  The cost of 1 contract would be about $55.00 
plush any commission.  My bullish target for such a trade is 
$13.00 on or before expiration.  Should that level be reached, 
the option should be worth $3.00 at a minimum.  A trader that 
would normally buy 500 shares of a $7.00 stock, would only 
purchase 5 option contracts, thus risking about $275 
+ commission.  Should the $13.00 level be achieved, then the 
roughly $295 investment would be worth $1,500.  

Recently, Premier Investor has removed the HTML link from the 
daily email version of the newsletter.  Our reason for doing so 
was intended to expedite the email version of the letter earlier 
in the evenings.  Thus, we would like to issue a small survey to 
hopefully better serve our subscribers.

Premier Investor clients, would you rather have the email version 
sent out earlier each night without the HTML link, or would you 
prefer to wait slightly later and have the link included?  Please 
e-mail mwhistler@PremierInvestor.net with your response.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician
PremierInvestor.net


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH)
=========================
(( new non-tech short play ))

Citigroup Inc - C - close: 34.00 change: -1.18 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Citigroup, the preeminent global financial services company with 
some 200 million customer accounts in more than 100 countries, 
provides consumers, corporations, governments and institutions 
with a broad range of financial products and services, including 
consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, 
insurance, securities brokerage, and asset management. (source: 
company website)

Why We Like It:
Fallout from the WorldCom blowup continues to plague Wall Street.  
New York's Attorney General, who already has former Salomon Smith 
Barney analyst Jack Grubman on the hot set for his cozy 
relationship with the beleaguered telecom company, is now said to 
be targeting Citigroup CEO Sandy Weill.  The Wall Street Journal 
reported on Friday that in an effort to become one of the lead 
underwriters of the AT&T Wireless IPO, Weill urged Grubman to 
reevaluate his rating on AT&T.  This isn't what investors want to 
hear.  Investigations targeting Martha Stewart are one 
thing...Charges of unethical (or illegal) conduct by the head of 
an international bank is another!  Fellow banking giant JPM 
doesn't seem to be faring much better.  On Thursday, Moody's 
placed their credit rating under review for a possible downgrade.  
Overall it seems there just aren't many reasons to buy financial 
stocks.  The recent news merely adds to the apprehension that 
investors have about what other skeletons might be hiding in the 
closet.  Combine those worries with a teetering Latin American 
economy, and you've got a very uncertain picture...And boy, does 
Wall Street hate uncertainty!  

Technically, it looks like C is poised to head lower.  The stock 
rallied sharply from its July low of $24.48, aided by the IMF's 
bailout of Brazil and a powerful rebound in the Dow Jones.  The 
past week, however, has seen shares unsuccessfully attempt to 
move over the 50-dma ($35.64).  We believe the subsequent 
rollover has offered an attractive entry point to go short.  Our 
bearish aspirations are bolstered by the MACD (which is curling 
lower from the baseline) and downtrending daily stochastics.  
Point-and-figure chartists will also note that C remains under 
bearish resistance at $37.  By entering this hypothetical short 
trade on a move under $33.50, we're aiming to capture a breakdown 
to the $30.00 region.  Bulls will point out that possible support 
lies in the $32.70-$33.00 range.  In light of the recent negative 
news and weak technical picture, we don't expect more than a 
small bounce from this area.  If the stock does rally, our upside 
risk will be limited by a stop at $35.66, just above the 
descending 50-dma.  A more conservative strategy could utilize a 
stop slightly above psychological resistance at $35.00.

For annotated chart: click here.
Chart of: C, Daily.



Picked on August xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date          07/17/02 (confirmed)
 




==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Archer Daniels - ADM - close: 12.32 change: +0.21

WHAT TO WATCH: After announcing today that the company had been 
awarded two patents that utilize concentrated isoflavones in 
combination with other plant-derived phytochemicals, Archer 
Daniels witnessed a +1.73% gain today, despite the broader market 
sell-off.  The patents cover plant-derived compositions, which 
can be used in the treatment of alcoholism and the treatment of 
neurological symptoms.  The news certainly had bulls cheering in 
their seats, as ADM traded above the 50-dma, and shares could 
potentially move higher.  Stochastics have been moving upwards 
and look as if they could be gaining momentum.  If ADM can 
continue to stay above the 50-dma, the stock could attempt to 
move towards the 200-dma at 13.64.  Buyers would want to keep a 
close eye on a selling relapse below the 50-dma at $12.00.           




--- 
 
Dell Computer - DELL - close: 27.90 change: -0.53

WHAT TO WATCH: Dell is pulling out all of the stops to save 
revenue this year.  The computer mogul announced today that they 
would strip all Dell logos from its computers and sell them to 
small businesses through independent businesses.  The move is 
certainly an aggressive attempt at increasing sales, however, it 
also alludes that the PC market is getting much more slim.  With 
Stochastics pinned in the overbought region, Dell could lose 
momentum in the near future.  Also, with discouraging comments 
from analysts surfacing today about the semiconductor and 
hardware sectors, tech stocks could still have troubled waters 
ahead.  Dell has run into shelf resistance at the $28.50 area, 
and could slip in the following week.  However, bears would want 
to be very careful if DELL is able to find strength and move 
above $25.00.    




---

Walt Disney - DIS - close: 16.83 change: -0.54

WHAT TO WATCH: From the August 14th low to Friday's high, 
shareholders of the Mouse House enjoyed a 27% gain.  That fact 
alone is enough to have some bears pounding the table for a 
pullback.  What's interesting is the fact that shares have 
already begun to rollover from the 50-dma at $17.40.  The MACD 
and daily stochastic oscillators are looking negative as well, 
with the former indicator starting to level out below its 
baseline.  Bearish entries can be considered on a move under 
today's low of $16.25.  Short-term traders could target a decline 
to the $15 region, but a retest of the recent lows wouldn't be 
out the of the question if the Dow Jones begins to gravitate 
towards 8000.





---

InVision Technologies - INVN - close: 32.55 change: +0.35

WHAT TO WATCH: From mid-April to mid-August, shares of INVN 
traded in an ascending regression channel.  Recent action has 
seen the stock break out of this channel (which coincided with 
the 200-dma), briefly consolidate near $30.00, and continue to 
new multi-month highs.  The most recent positive technical 
development came today, when shares moved above bearish point-
and-figure resistance. Although the stock is technically oversold 
(as gauged by the daily stochastics), today's relative strength 
versus the NASDAQ is a sign that INVN could keep moving higher.  
Aggressive traders can target entries on a move above today's 
high ($33.45), with an initial profit-target near $38.00.\


 

---

Intersil Corp. - ISIL - close: 19.13 change: -1.47

WHAT TO WATCH: This systems-oriented designer and manufacturer of 
analog and digital integrated circuits could be in trouble with 
the rest of the Semiconductor sector.  With disappointing 
comments from analysts today, the SOX.X closed down -5.87% on the 
day.  ISIL could not break through descending resistance in 
today's session, and could retest the 50-dma.  With daily 
stochastics falling from the overbought region, Intersil could be 
temporarily losing strength.  Short positions would find 
encouragement if the stock does drop below the 50-dma at 20.00.  
However, bears beware if ISIL moves above the descending trend 
line at $21.50.      





---

Manpower Inc. - MAN - close: 35.12 change: -1.68

WHAT TO WATCH: Converging moving averages can often act as 
stubborn resistance, stopping powerful rallies in their tracks.  
Case in point: MAN bounced sharply from the $32 region in early-
August, only to run headlong into the 50-dma and 200-dma near 
$36.50.  Today's sell-off from that level could be the beginning 
of a more extended decline that takes MAN back to $32.00.  The 
oscillators are looking quite bearish, with the daily stochastics 
(5,3,3) falling from the overbought region and MACD curling lower 
from below the zeroline.  On Friday the stock closed at the worst 
levels of the session, hinting at more weakness on Monday.  Short 
positions can be gauged on a move below psychological support at 
$35.00.




---

RJ Reynolds - RJR - close: 56.14 change: -1.36

WHAT TO WATCH: Tobacco stocks viewed weakness today after Goldman 
Sachs reiterated their opinion that cigarette stocks had limited 
upside potential over the next few months.  The market has begun 
fearing that premium tobacco vendors could see a loss in market 
share to discount manufacturers.  Bears have definitely smelled 
fear over the last three trading sessions as RJR has descended to 
the 50-dma.  Closing 5 cents below the 50-dma today, the stock 
could move towards lows in the $50-51.00 level.  However, $55.00 
could still prove to be formidable resistance if the stock is to 
lose more altitude.  




---

Target - TGT - close: 35.90 change: -1.35

WHAT TO WATCH: Wall Street is worried about crunched profits in 
mega-super-humongous retail/grocery stores.  Earlier in the week 
Forbes published an article, which stated that "SuperTargets" 
earned $135 Dollars less per square foot than normal Targets.  
The market viewed this as bearish news, pulling the stock down to 
35.15 from the relative high of $37.60 three days ago.  With 
daily Stochastics releasing from the overbought region, it could 
be a matter of time before TGT attempts to test the 50-dma.  If 
TGT is able to breach the 50-dma at $35.15, shares could fall 
into the most recent support at $32.00.      




---

Verity Inc - VRTY - close: 12.27 change: +0.27

WHAT TO WATCH: After an extended stay below the $12.00 mark, 
shares of this software company have broken to multi-months 
highs.  VRTY turned in an impressive performance on Friday, 
breaking above resistance and outperforming the NASDAQ with a 
2.2% gain.  The strong volume behind today's move indicates that 
this could be the beginning of a more pronounced rally.  A glance 
at the point-and-figure chart shows that VRTY has just cleared 
bearish resistance.  With the technical picture looking strong, 
we think the stock could make its way to the 200-dma ($13.86) in 
short order.  A break above today's high ($12.73) would provide a 
possible action point to open bullish positions.





------------
RADAR SCREEN
------------

CW - Underwater could be a translation for under the 200-dma.  
Curtiss Wright fell under the 200-dma nine days ago and has not 
been able to regain the lost ground since.  A breach of the most 
recent low at $57.00 could bring bears into this stock.  CW does 
not have any formidable resistance until $50.00.  

EK - Although EK traded slightly red for the day, the relative 
strength displayed could be a good sign for bulls.  Continuing to 
stay above the 200-dma and posting a new relative high today, 
Eastman Kodak could have lofty intentions in mind. 

GE - General Electric has not been able to move above $33.00 in 
the last few sessions and could soon see selling if bulls cannot 
get the job done.  With daily Stochastics elevated in the 
overbought region and the MACD rolling over on the top of the 
indicator, bears could be chomping at the bit if GE shows 
weakness.

IDTI - Ouch! Failure at the 50-dma seems to be a common theme 
among chip stocks lately.  Integrated Device Technology could see 
bears nudging this stock lower as the daily Stochastics fall out 
of the overbought region. 

KMB - Kimberly Clark has been trying very hard to stay above 
$58.00, though with a descending 50-dma, this could find itself 
slowly grinding down.  A breach of $58.00 could eagerly bring 
bears into this stock, seeking a re-test of lows at $53.00. 

KO - How do you spell relative strength?  In a day when the Dow 
closed down -180.68, Coca Cola could be the correct suggestion.  
With the MACD appearing to cross the 0 line, the event could 
bring technical bulls onto this stocks radar screen.  

LFG - What goes up; could certainly come down!  After an 
astounding rally of late, LandAmerica Financial seems to have run 
into resistance at $36.00.  Daily Stochastics are falling out of 
the overbought region and could be indicating a loss of momentum. 
Also, the MACD is extended into the upper region, and look as if 
the indicator could turn over.  

MMM - Closing down -0.95 cents on the day, 3M seems to be at the 
mercy of the broader market.  Further, MMM has recently found 
resistance in the $130.00 area, and could have trouble moving 
higher.  With the daily Stochastics falling out of the overbought 
region and the MACD potentially rolling over, MMM might need some 
very strong adhesive to keep it at current levels.  

PII - Resistance hoe!  Polaris Industries gives the impression 
that the stock has found a potential ceiling.  With resistance 
overhead at $75.00, PII could be in for some profit taking.  The 
daily Stochastics are extended into the overbought region and 
could descend if bears put pressure on this stock! 

PIXR - Better than expected earnings can only go so far.  After 
recently reporting astounding numbers and elevating future 
guidance, this animation company's stock ascended to the heavens.  
However, with the daily Stochastics and MACD appearing to be 
artificially high, investors could consider taking profits.  Such 
an occurrence might cause PIXR to fall into support at $45.00.   

YUM - Food-related issues have been doing well lately, and YUM 
appears to be consolidating below resistance at $31.00.  A 
breakout above this level could lead to a retest of the 52-week 
highs near $33.00.


================
Market Sentiment
================

No Faith

by Steven Price

Now, hold on just a second.  Yes, the bulls were busy chasing red 
flags while the bears came out of hibernation.  Yes, the Dow gave 
up over 200 points at one time today.  Yes, the Dow finished the 
day down 180.68 on the day.  Yes, there has been a rush to take 
profits.  But no, we have not seen a turnaround!  

I have been harping all week about the 50-dma mark providing 
support.  And as any technical analyst worth the ink on his 
charts will tell you, the trend is assumed to be in force, until 
evidence shows otherwise. Guess what?  The 50-dma is still in 
tact.  The bears huffed and puffed and blew the major market 
indices down today, but not far enough to break through the 50-
dmas that were crossed on Monday.  The Dow's low of the day came 
within 29 points of the 50-dma of 8800, before rallying back.  
The Nasdaq Composite came within 10 points of the 50-dma of 1367, 
before finding buyers.  The NDX came within 13 points of the 50-
dma of 992, before catching a second wind.  And the S&P 500 came 
within 11 points of the 50-dma before crawling back a few points 
into the close.

After a week that saw significant barriers crossed - 1000 in the 
NDX, 950 in the S&P 500, 9000 in the Dow and 1400 in the Nasdaq 
Composite, there was bound to be some profit taking.  But before 
the sky starts to fall, we need to see the 50-dma support lines 
broken.  The inability of the Dow to hold over 9000 is at least 
as significant as its ability to move that barrier out of the way 
in the first place.  

Of course, the thorn in the side of my theory has been the 
semiconductors.  The Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX.X) has been 
turned away from the 50-dma for most of the week.  It managed to 
close above this level on one occasion, and then by only a point.  
It will be hard to maintain a broad market rally without the 
participation of the NDX and Nasdaq Composite.  And it will be 
hard to maintain a rally in the NDX and Nasdaq Composite without 
a little help from the semis.  These stocks have experienced a 
heck of a run in the last few weeks, but appear to have run out 
of steam.  A recovery for the sector was initially pegged for the 
beginning of 2002.  It was then moved back to the second half of 
2002. Salomon Smith Barney came out and reduced growth estimates 
in the sector from 4% to 0.5% for 2002 and from 21% to 12% for 
2003.  This was followed by similar comments from Bear Stearns 
about Intel.  BSC's analyst cut estimates for Intel's third 
quarter 2002 and for all of 2003, due to signs of weakness in the 
chip behemoth's business. This isn't going to help maintain these 
averages one bit. Most of the reduced estimates from individual 
companies were ignored in the recent run.  It appears these hard 
numbers are now sinking in. 

Evidence of funds flowing out of stocks was evident in the bond 
market, which saw some buying in the 5-year and 10-year notes 
today, as evidenced by small drops in the short-term yields. 

In corporate malfeasance news, it was revealed that N.Y. Attorney 
Eliot Spitzer has widened his probe of Salomon Smith Barney 
analyst Jack Grubman to include Citigroup CEO Sandy Weill.  
Citigroup gave up $1.18 to close at $34.00, but found a 
surprising amount of buyers just below this level, around $33.80.

AOL is now facing additional SEC scrutiny for upbeat forecasts 
that were made last year by executives, including chairman Steve 
Case.  These officers sold their stock while the price may have 
been artificially inflated due to those forecasts.  Directors 
that sold shares immediately after exercising company granted 
stock options made most of the profits. Case made about $100 
million, while Chief Executive Dick Parsons collected about $21 
million.

As we head into next week, I have no faith.  What I mean by this 
is that we are at a critical juncture, with the techs pulling 
back hard on old-school stocks that are doing their best to 
advance. I am not predicting who will win, simply that one of 
these groups will.  I have used the 50-dma as my gauge not only 
because it is significant historically, but also because the 
convergence of all of the averages breaking that barrier on the 
same day allows for a measure of comparison.  There is a tug of 
war going on right now, and as I have said before, when it is 
over, there is usually one team that winds up in the mud.  If the 
Dow and S&P can lift the techs along with them, maybe they can 
all stay clean.








-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10679
52-week Low :  7702
Current     :  8872

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8825
 50-dma: 8800
200-dma: 9723

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1226
52-week Low :  797
Current     :  940

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  930
 50-dma:  926
200-dma: 1069

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1782
52-week Low :  892
Current     : 1010

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  992
 50-dma:  992
200-dma: 1334


-----------------------------------------------------------------


The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X): Talk about leading someone 
around by the nose.  This group has quite a hold on the broader 
markets.  Reduced growth estimates from Salomon Smith Barney for 
the sector, combined with reduced Intel estimates from Bear 
Stearns, sent the dominos falling today.  The SOX continued its 
fall after being turned away from its 50-dma, and sped up the 
profit taking process after a week of significant gains in the 
Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and NDX.  The series of higher 
highs and higher lows remains in tact, but maybe not for long.  
Without some good news, this index may be heading back to 300, 
after a 28% gain since August 5th.

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 282
Current     : 336

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 337
 50-dma: 357
200-dma: 495

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX has found what appears to be a floor.  After flirting 
with 30 on Thursday, it popped back up to almost 33 today, as the 
Dow gave back almost 200 points and reminded investors that there 
is still a downside.  Reduced estimates for Intel led the chip 
sector lower, which in turn took the broader markets with it.  
The increase in volatility means an increase in premium, which 
means an increase in time decay over the weekend.  This cost was 
something bears were willing to endure, as they are expecting a 
continued pullback on Monday.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 32.81 +1.85
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 47.62 +2.62

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.80        384,696       309,477
Equity Only    0.67        322,242       214,734
OEX            1.08         16,062        17,397
QQQ            0.70         39,549        27,556

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          44      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    60      + 1     Bull Confirmed
DOW           60      + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       59      + 1     Bull Alert
S&P 100       58      + 0     Bull Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.16
10-Day Arms Index  1.22
21-Day Arms Index  1.18
55-Day Arms Index  1.30

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE        883          1894
NASDAQ     1067          2172

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         24              41
NASDAQ       16              47

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,286
NASDAQ   1,476

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/20/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials reduced both long and short positions by about 6000 
contracts, as can be expected during the end of summer, a 
notoriously slow time for the markets.  The got slightly longer, 
but by only 500 contracts.  Small traders added to positions 
slightly, with a net short increase of 500 contracts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
07/30/02      430,833   482,957   (52,124)   (5.7%)
08/06/02      431,590   478,879   (47,289)   (5.2%)
08/13/02      427,618   475,536   (47,918)   (5.3%)
08/20/02      422,100   469,556   (47,456)   (5.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/30/02      153,858    67,451    86,407     39.0%
08/06/02      159,561    67,434    92,127     40.5%
08/13/02      155,040    66,546    88,494     39.9%
08/20/02      156,974    69,071    87,903     38.9%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Commercials reduced both long and short positions slightly, with 
500 more reductions on the short side.  Small Traders also 
reduced slightly on both sides, with a net long reduction of 500 
contracts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
07/30/02       38,163     47,343    (9,180) (10.7%)
08/06/02       41,014     50,025    (9,011) ( 9.9%)
08/13/02       42,303     50,354    (8,051) ( 8.7%)
08/20/02       41,876     49,461    (7,585) ( 8.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
07/30/02       13,159     9,237     3,922    17.5%
08/06/02       11,547     8,782     2,765    13.6%
08/13/02       12,797     8,933     3,864    17.8%
08/20/02       11,321     7,980     3,341    17.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials reduced long positions by about 1700 contracts, while 
adding 1500 to the short side.  This led to a reduction of over 
3000 contracts from their long positions.  Small traders added 
1200 to the long side, while reducing shorts by only 200 
contracts.  This led to a net reduction of 1300 short contracts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/30/02       22,429    12,811    9,618      27.3%
08/06/02       23,491    14,290    9,201      24.4%
08/13/02       22,837    13,833    9,004      24.6%
08/20/02       21,160    15,349    5,811      15.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
07/30/02        6,778     8,999    (2,221)   (14.1%)
08/06/02        7,981     9,258    (1,277)   ( 7.4%)
08/13/02        5,050     8,349    (3,299)   (24.6%)
08/20/02        6,216     8,163    (1,947)   (13.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-23-2002
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  IBM, MIL, RX
  Bearish Play Updates:  MXIM, QLGC, SBC

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     C, CL, PSS
  Bullish Play Updates:  MGG, NCEN, NKE, SWFT
  Closed Bearish Plays:  CPG

High Risk/Reward
  Closed Bullish Plays:  IDPH
                        


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Intl Business Machines - IBM - cls: 80.40 chg: -1.59 stop: 78.99

Falling tides could potentially lower all boats.  Hardware makers 
experienced weakness as J.P. Morgan analyst Bill Shope made 
negative comments on Hewlett-Packard.  Also, the semiconductor 
index weighted techs down by cautious commentary on Intel 
(Nasdaq:INTC) and Applied Materials (Nasdaq:AMAT).  Weakness 
displayed in the broader market caused IBM to close negative on 
the day, however, the newsletter is encouraged that IBM has not 
broken the most recent relative low at $79.01. Also, today's 
close above $80.00 could be conceived as a technical and 
psychological victory for bulls.  Keeping our stop at $78.99, Big 
Blue has an additional $1.41 to wiggle if the stock unearths 
further weakness.  Although it is too early to tell for sure,  
the current pattern could be a bullish "flag and pennant".   
Nevertheless, without confirmation we would not recommend further 
positions at this time.   

Picked on August 15th at $75.06 
Gain since picked:        +5.34
Earnings Date          07/15/02 (confirmed)




---

Millipore Corp - MIL - cls: 37.45 chg: -0.79 stop: 36.45

Millipore traded negative on the day, as the Biotech Index could 
not find the strength to penetrate 400.  With daily Stochastics 
extended into the overbought region, MIL traded in bearish 
fashion throughout today's session.  The stock gave back -2.06% 
on light volume.  Although we are always concerned to see one of 
our long plays lose ground, we are not overly concerned yet, 
given that MIL was able to stay above the whole number at $37.00.  
Also, considering a -4.01% decline in the BTK, MIL had decent 
relative strength only losing -2.06% on the day.  The newsletter 
is not going to move our stop at this time.   


Picked on August 16th at $36.60 
Results since picked:     +0.85
Earnings Date          07/16/02 (confirmed)



---

IMS Health - RX - close: 18.10 change: -0.04 stop: 16.98 

In good news, IMS health continues to display strong relative 
strength in comparison to the broader market.  Today's trading 
was slightly red, though given that the NYSE closed down -180.68 
points, the newsletter is encouraged with IMS Health's 
performance.  Without any company specific news today, RX seems 
to still have a mind of its own.  The remaining half of our 
position is currently running without a profit target, however, 
our stop remains at $16.98.  RX continues to seem bullish, as the 
stock made a new relative high in today's trading.  Conservative 
traders weary of profit taking, could move their stops up to 
$17.69, one penny below yesterday's low.       

Picked on August 9th at $16.21  
Gain since picked:       +1.89
Earnings Date         07/15/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Qlogic - QLGC - cls: 36.60 chg: -1.74 stop: 40.06

*TRIGGERED PLAY*

The newsletter was triggered in QLGC when the stock opened at 
$37.85 this morning.  The chip sector was revisited by sellers in 
today's trading, as the SOX.X closed down -5.87%.  Bear Stearns 
analyst Charles Boucher slashed his estimates for Intel 
(Nasdaq:INTC) for the third quarter of 2002 and all of 2003.  
Banc of America cut estimates on five chip-equipment companies 
including: Applied Materials (Nasdaq:AMAT), Therma-Wave 
(Nasdaq:TWAV), Axcelis (Nasdaq:ACLS), Asyst (Nasdaq:ASYT), and 
Varian (Nasdaq:VARI).  The bad news did not bode well for bulls, 
as the SOX.X failed the 50-dma.  With the daily Stochastics for 
the SOX falling out of the overbought region, chip-stocks could 
be in trouble once again.  Today's negative move on QLGC also 
caused failure at the 50-dma, thus, conventional wisdom would 
indicate that this stock could test lows again.  Our initial 
profit target will still remain at $33.50, though if the 
Semiconductor Index begins to show more frailty, we could quickly 
lower our objective.          


Picked on August 23rd at $37.85 
Results since picked:     +1.25
Earnings Date          07/18/02 (confirmed)



---

Maxim Integrated - MXIM - cls: 35.53 chg: -1.88 stop: 38.51

*TRIGGERED PLAYS*

Given today's bad news regarding the chipmakers, MXIM quickly 
found out that even analog manufacturers are not a safe haven for 
bulls.  The chip sector was revisited by sellers in today's 
trading, as the SOX.X closed down -5.87%.  Bear Stearns analyst 
Charles Boucher slashed his estimates for Intel (Nasdaq:INTC) for 
the third quarter of 2002 and all of 2003.  Banc of America cut 
estimates on five chip-equipment companies including: Applied 
Materials (Nasdaq:AMAT), Therma-Wave (Nasdaq:TWAV), Axcelis 
(Nasdaq:ACLS), Asyst (Nasdaq:ASYT), and Varian (Nasdaq:VARI).
MXIM gapped down this morning, and continued to bleed for the 
remainder of the day.  Bears were encouraged as MXIM traded 
beneath the 50-dma, also falling back into the recent descending 
channel.  Daily Stochastics seem to indicate that the stock is 
losing momentum, as the indicator has fallen out of the 
overbought region.  Allowing the stock plenty of room to wiggle, 
the newsletter will leave the current stop at $38.51.  Our profit 
target will remain at $30.10, though if the SOX quickly breaks 
lows, we will re-evaluate our goal.      


Picked on August 23rd at  $35.38  
Results since picked:      -0.15
Earnings Date           08/06/02 (confirmed)




---

SBC Comm. - SBC - cls: 26.30 chg: -1.08 stop: $28.51 *new* 

How low can you go??!!  Today's -3.94% decline in SBC was very 
encouraging for bears, as the telecom seemed to lose legs.  The 
gap down this morning broke the most recent ascending trend, and 
could signal a new trend down.  Helping to fuel weakness in the 
telecom sector was a report by the Wall Street Journal that New 
York Attorney General Elliot Spitzer is looking into a connection 
between Citigroup's Chief Executive and Jack Grubman from 
Citigroup Solomon Smith Barney in a large underwriting by AT&T 
Wireless.  The news seemed to heap more pressure on the already 
troubled telecom companies, as the North American Telecom Index 
(IXTCX) had its first red day in seven days.  With the daily 
Stochastics heading for the oversold region, it would seem that 
SBC has certainly lost some of its positive momentum.  Just in 
case SBC does begin to gather allies among bulls, the newsletter 
will move the stop down slightly.  The new stop will be at 
$28.51, while our initial profit target will remain near July 
lows at $22.00.

Picked on August 21st at $27.49 
Results since picked:     +1.19
Earnings Date          07/23/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Citigroup Inc - C - close: 34.00 change: -1.18 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Citigroup, the preeminent global financial services company with 
some 200 million customer accounts in more than 100 countries, 
provides consumers, corporations, governments and institutions 
with a broad range of financial products and services, including 
consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, 
insurance, securities brokerage, and asset management. (source: 
company website)

Why We Like It:
Fallout from the WorldCom blowup continues to plague Wall Street.  
New York's Attorney General, who already has former Salomon Smith 
Barney analyst Jack Grubman on the hot set for his cozy 
relationship with the beleaguered telecom company, is now said to 
be targeting Citigroup CEO Sandy Weill.  The Wall Street Journal 
reported on Friday that in an effort to become one of the lead 
underwriters of the AT&T Wireless IPO, Weill urged Grubman to 
reevaluate his rating on AT&T.  This isn't what investors want to 
hear.  Investigations targeting Martha Stewart are one 
thing...Charges of unethical (or illegal) conduct by the head of 
an international bank is another!  Fellow banking giant JPM 
doesn't seem to be faring much better.  On Thursday, Moody's 
placed their credit rating under review for a possible downgrade.  
Overall it seems there just aren't many reasons to buy financial 
stocks.  The recent news merely adds to the apprehension that 
investors have about what other skeletons might be hiding in the 
closet.  Combine those worries with a teetering Latin American 
economy, and you've got a very uncertain picture...And boy, does 
Wall Street hate uncertainty!  

Technically, it looks like C is poised to head lower.  The stock 
rallied sharply from its July low of $24.48, aided by the IMF's 
bailout of Brazil and a powerful rebound in the Dow Jones.  The 
past week, however, has seen shares unsuccessfully attempt to 
move over the 50-dma ($35.64).  We believe the subsequent 
rollover has offered an attractive entry point to go short.  Our 
bearish aspirations are bolstered by the MACD (which is curling 
lower from the baseline) and downtrending daily stochastics.  
Point-and-figure chartists will also note that C remains under 
bearish resistance at $37.  By entering this hypothetical short 
trade on a move under $33.50, we're aiming to capture a breakdown 
to the $30.00 region.  Bulls will point out that possible support 
lies in the $32.70-$33.00 range.  In light of the recent negative 
news and weak technical picture, we don't expect more than a 
small bounce from this area.  If the stock does rally, our upside 
risk will be limited by a stop at $35.66, just above the 
descending 50-dma.  A more conservative strategy could utilize a 
stop slightly above psychological resistance at $35.00.

For annotated chart: click here.
Chart of: C, Daily.



Picked on August xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date          07/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Colgate Palmolive - CL - cls: 53.77 chg: -0.86 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Colgate-Palmolive is a leading global consumer products company, 
tightly focused on Oral Care, Personal Care, Household Surface 
Care, Fabric Care and Pet Nutrition. Colgate sells its products 
in over 200 countries and territories around the world under such 
internationally recognized brand names as Colgate, Palmolive, 
Mennen, Softsoap, Irish Spring, Protex, Sorriso, Kolynos, Ajax, 
Axion, Soupline, Suavitel and Fab, as well as Hill's Science Diet 
and Hill's Prescription Diet pet foods.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
It would seem that the economically sensitive cyclicals are hard-
pressed to find confidence from bulls with a potential slow 
fiscal recovery. With the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYX.X) 
finding resistance at the 50-dma, the index might be in for a bit 
of cooling.  Daily Stochastics give the impression being 
moribund, appearing to fall out of the overbought region.  
Weakness in the cyclical sector could help our short Colgate 
Palmolive to also find fragility.  

Most recently, CL staged an 18% rebound from the relative low on 
July 19th.  As impressive as that bounce is, the stock has 
recently found formidable resistance at the 200-dma.  The last 
two days have brought bears off the fence, promoting selling as 
the stock has seemingly run out of legs.  As is the case with the 
CYC.X, the daily Stochastics for CL give the impression of 
descending from the overbought region, while the MACD looks as if 
it could be turning over.  Our plan for this position is short 
and sweet: our trade will be triggered if the stock falls below 
today's low of $53.60, with a stop 10 cents above the 200-dma at 
55.01.  The newsletter's initial profit target is at $51.25, 
though if the stock approaches the 50-dma with bearish vigor, we 
will quickly transfer the profit objective to a lower level.  
Descending support lies at $52.50-53.00, and at the whole number 
of $52.00.  If all things work out, cyclical bulls will collapse 
to the ground below.    

For Annotated Chart: Click Here
Chart of: CL, Daily.



Picked on August xxth at $xx.xx <-- See text 
Results since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date          07/23/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Payless Shoesource - PSS - close: 53.12 change: -1.77 stop: *text

Company Description:
Payless ShoeSource, Inc. is North America's largest family 
footwear retailer. The company operates a total of 4,952 stores 
offering quality family footwear and accessories at affordable 
prices (source: company website)

Why We Like It:
Glancing at the bar chart for PSS, one can see that the stock has 
had quite a bullish run.  Shares gained nearly 20% in just seven 
days!  The catalyst for this explosive upside movement was a 
favorable reaction to the company's August 14th earnings report.  
Payless announced a better-than-expected increase in profit, 
attributing the results to improved inventories and lower costs.  
This positive fundamental news is all well and good, but our 
technical analysis paints a less bullish picture.  First and 
foremost, PSS looks overextended.  The daily stochastics (5,3,3), 
which are just beginning to release from the overbought region, 
support our notion that the stock is due for a pullback.  PSS 
also has substantial overhead resistance in the form of the 200-
dma at $55.65.  Interestingly, the recent rally came to a halt 
just four cents under this moving average.  Bulls are faced with 
an additional hurdle in the form of psychological resistance at 
$55.  By entering this short play on a move under $53.00, we're 
looking to ride PSS down to the $47.50-$48.00 region.  This is 
where the stock began trading on August 14th after gapping higher 
on the positive earnings news.  The largest obstacle to our goal 
is the combination of psychological support at $50.00 and the 50-
dma at $50.35.  Shorter-term traders may want to target a move to 
this level.  We believe that given enough time, PSS will 
eventually retrace the majority of its recent gains.  If this 
play is activated our stop will be set at $55.68, just above the 
200-dma.

For annotated chart: click here
Chart of: PSS, Daily.




Picked on August xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date          08/14/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

MGM Mirage - MGG - close: 36.30 change: +0.03 stop: 34.99

It was only a three-cent gain, but today's trading action in MGG 
could be deemed a victory for the bulls.  Yesterday's news that 
Nevada was weighing a casino tax hike did not appear to weigh on 
the group today.  As a matter of fact, MGG was significantly 
stronger than the Dow Jones.  This relative strength could come 
into play next week if the broader market rebounds.  We're also 
encouraged by the fact that shares did not approach yesterday's 
low, let alone our stop at $34.99.  However, considering that the 
MACD and daily stochastic oscillators are heading lower, we would 
not recommend buying this dip.  New entries can instead be 
targeted on a move above the $37.85-$38.00 region.

Picked on August 19th at $37.02
Results since picked:     -0.72
Earnings Date          07/24/02 (confirmed) 




---

New Century Financial - NCEN - cls: 29.97 chg: -2.04 stop: 28.28

For most of Friday's session, NCEN weathered the broader market 
decline in a relatively strong manner.  Unfortunately shares 
succumbed to a steep sell-off during the final hour of trading 
and finished with a loss of 6.3%.  Although most of this move was 
not backed by strong volume, a flood of sell-on-close orders came 
in during the final 5 minutes of trading and dropped NCEN below 
$30.00.  Monday's action will be key, as the bulls and bears 
battle over this psychological support level.  We'd expect 
selling pressure to abate as shares approach the 50-dma at 
$28.61.  On the other hand, if shares rebound from $30.00, a 
break above yesterday's high ($32.01) would offer a potential 
entry point.  More cautious traders may want to wait from NCEN to 
clear the July high of $32.19.

Picked on August 16th at $30.16
Results since picked:     -0.19
Earnings Date          07/25/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Nike Inc - NKE - close: 45.80 change: -0.35 stop: 43.29

Nice relative strength in NKE today.  Shares reached a new 
relative high of $46.38 within the first hour of trading and 
finished the session with a loss of only 35 cents.  That's not 
too bad, considering the triple-point decline in the Dow Jones.  
The orderly nature of this pullback (which was backed by the 
lowest volume in over a week) bodes well for the bulls.  We're 
also encouraged by the way shares have held above psychological 
support at $45.00.  If the bulls reassert themselves next week, 
new entries can be targeted on a move above today's high.  
Although we're maintaining our stop at $43.29, those who wish to 
lessen their downside risk could place their stops slightly under 
$45.00.

Picked on August 22nd at $45.36
Results since picked:     +0.44
Earnings Date          06/27/02 (confirmed)




---

Swift Transportation - SWFT - cls: 18.15 chg: -0.59 stop: 17.64

In Thursday night's update we discussed how the Dow 
Transportation index had rallied up to its 50-dma at 2465.  With 
the Dow Jones bleeding steadily lower during today's session, the 
TRAN had little chance of overcoming its moving average 
resistance.  SWFT moved lower with the index and finished with a 
loss of 3.1%.  Volume backing the decline was relatively light at 
310K shares, indicating a lack of bearish conviction.  It was 
also encouraging to see that the stock bounced exactly from 
whole-number support at $18.00.  But with the daily stochastics 
(5,3,3) beginning to fall from overbought levels, it looks as if 
the fate of SWFT may rest on the TRAN's ability to rally back to 
(and move above) its 50-dma.  New long positions could be gauged 
on a continued rebound from current levels, but only after 
confirming bullishness in the transports.  Also keep in mind that 
overhead resistance lies at $19.00.

Picked on August 19th at $18.01
Results since picked:     +0.14
Earnings Date          07/25/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Chelsea Property - CPG - close: 33.32 change: +0.02 stop: 34.11

That's it...We've had it!  This short play had ample time to 
perform, but the recent lack of movement has tested our patience.  
CPG's relative strength on Friday provided the proverbial last 
straw, as shares finished the day with a small gain.  Granted, 
the stock isn't exactly exploding to the upside.  It's entirely 
possible that a continued broader market sell-off could quickly 
drag CPG back to its 50-dma at $32.34.  However, there simply 
aren't enough technical reasons to believe this will be the case.  
The daily stochastics are beginning to waver near the mid-level, 
while the MACD is slowly rising.  We're cutting CPG loose as of 
today's closing price, which represents a loss of 1.9% from our 
original entry point.  Traders with a more bearish outlook may 
want to maintain short positions with a stop at $34.11.

Picked on August 2nd at $32.68
Results since picked:    -0.64
Earnings Date         08/12/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

IDEC Pharmaceuticals - IDPH - cls: 43.27 chg: -3.50 stop: 43.74 

Friday's NASDAQ sell-off provided an excuse for profit-taking in 
the BTK.X biotech index, which had seen three straight days of 
gains.  Technically, the BTK appeared to be stymied the 
resistance at 400.  IDPH saw selling pressure from the get-go and 
continued to slide with the BTK throughout the session.  Due to 
the volatile nature of the biotech sector, we elected to use a 
relatively tight stop-loss at $43.74.  Our play was closed for a 
loss of 5.8% when shares violated that level during the final 
hour of trading.  IDPH closed near the lows of the day, which 
isn't a positive sign for the bulls.  The stock could easily 
bounce back if the BTK cracks through the 400 level, but for now 
it appears more downside may be in store.  Note that our picked 
price has been adjusted to reflect the fact that IDPH gapped 
lower on Friday morning.
 
Picked on August 22nd at $46.46
Results since picked:     -2.72
Earnings Date          07/17/02 (confirmed)
 





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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 08-23-2002
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of August 26th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


==================================================
Market Watch for the week of August 26th
==================================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

ACDO   Accredo Health         Mon, Aug 26  -----N/A-----     0.29
DCI    Donaldson              Mon, Aug 26  After the Bell    0.54

------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

BMO    Bank Of Montreal       Tue, Aug 27  -----N/A-----      N/A
BNL    BUNZL PLC              Tue, Aug 27  -----N/A-----      N/A
HRB    H & R Block            Tue, Aug 27  After the Bell   -0.10
HPQ    Hewlett-Packard        Tue, Aug 27  After the Bell    0.14
MBG    Mandalay Resort Group  Tue, Aug 27  After the Bell    0.52
MRX    Medicis Pharmaceutical Tue, Aug 27  After the Bell    0.53
RGIS   Regis Corporation      Tue, Aug 27  -----N/A-----     0.43
SMTC   Semtech                Tue, Aug 27  After the Bell    0.14
TKA    TELEKOM AUSTRIA AG     Tue, Aug 27  -----N/A-----      N/A
TOL    Toll Brothers          Tue, Aug 27  Before the Bell   0.64
VIP    Vimpel Communications  Tue, Aug 27  During the Market  N/A

-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

BTH    Blyth Inc.             Wed, Aug 28  Before the Bell   0.40
COCO   Corinthian Colleges    Wed, Aug 28  Before the Bell   0.23
IIT    Indonesian Satellite   Wed, Aug 28  Before the Bell    N/A
MIK    Michaels Stores        Wed, Aug 28  -----N/A-----     0.18

------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

CHS    Chico`s FAS            Thu, Aug 29  Before the Bell   0.19
DG     Dollar General         Thu, Aug 29  -----N/A-----     0.12
OTE    Hellenic Telecomm      Thu, Aug 29  -----N/A-----      N/A
KKD    Krispy Kreme Doughnut  Thu, Aug 29  Before the Bell   0.14
PTR    PetroChina Co Limited  Thu, Aug 29  Before the Bell    N/A
PETM   PETsMART               Thu, Aug 29  Before the Bell   0.14
AHO    Royal Ahold N.V.       Thu, Aug 29  -----N/A-----      N/A
ZLC    Zale Corporation       Thu, Aug 29  Before the Bell   0.14

------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

None


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

MYE     Myers Industries          5:4      08/29       08/30


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

In the Rodeo of bulls and bears, this Market Watch could help investors 
to rope all of the livestock in the week ahead.   

==============================================================
                       -For-           

Monday, 08/26/02
----------------
New Home Sales (DM)     Jul  Forecast:   985K  Previous:    1001K
Existing Home Sales (DM)Jul  Forecast:  5.30M  Previous:    5.07M


Tuesday, 08/27/02
-----------------
Durable Orders (BB)     Jul  Forecast:   1.4%  Previous:    -4.1%
Consumer Confidence (DM)Aug  Forecast:   97.0  Previous:     97.1


Wednesday, 08/28/02
-------------------
None


Thursday, 08/29/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   08/24  Forecast:   385K  Previous:     389K
GDP-Prel. (BB)           Q2  Forecast:   1.1%  Previous:     1.1%
Chain Deflator-Prel.(BB) Q2  Forecast:   1.2%  Previous:     1.2%
Help-Wanted Index (DM)  Jul  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:       47


Friday, 08/30/02
----------------
Personal Income (BB)    Jul  Forecast:   0.3%  Previous:     0.6%
Personal Spending (BB)  Jul  Forecast:   0.8%  Previous:     0.5%
Mich Sentiment-Rev. (DM)Aug  Forecast:   88.0  Previous:     87.9
Chicago PMI (DM)        Aug  Forecast:   52.0  Previous:     51.5


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SCT     Scottish Annuity & Life    16.90      +0.86
SAFM    Sanderson Farms Inc.       19.05      +0.74

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name              Close     Change 

SHFL    Shuffle Master Inc.       17.31      +1.06
TSN     Tyson Foods Inc.          12.02      +1.38

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

URS     Urs Corporation            24.60      +1.60
MRVL    Marvell Technology Group   22.21      +3.23

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

WFMI    Whole Foods Market Inc.    45.56      -3.63
PNRA    Panera Breads Co.          29.30      -1.57
MYGN    Myraid Genetics Inc.       20.85      -1.65
TRMS    Trimeris Inc.              47.55      -2.44
ATW     Atwood Oceanics            31.34      -1.97
JASA    Jo-Ann Stores Inc.         27.96      -1.54
MBFI    Mb Financial Inc.          33.90      -1.21

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

USPI    Utd Surgical Pt.           30.35      -1.35
SXI     Standex International      21.70      -0.75
KRON    Kronos Inc.                30.25      -1.47
DRS     Drs Technologies           36.52      -1.55
KCP     Kenneth Cole               22.80      -1.35
OXM     Oxford Industries          23.06      -0.70




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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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