PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 08-26-2002 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2002, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Weighing In Watch List: ADBE, GAS, HON, MCD, SEBL, SLB, and more... Play of the Day: Cycling Lower ******************************************************************* MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ******************************************************************* 08-26-2002 High Low Volume Advance/Decl DJIA 8919.01 + 46.05 8949.53 8756.02 1231 mln 2001/745 NASDAQ 1391.74 + 32.66 1394.24 1360.43 1414 mln 2040/1180 S&P 100 477.59 + 3.09 479.23 468.25 totals 4041/1925 S&P 500 947.95 + 7.09 950.80 930.42 RUS 2000 407.73 + 7.60 407.73 397.71 DJ TRANS 2424.51 + 30.19 2425.05 2371.52 VIX 32.29 - 0.52 35.21 31.85 VIXN 48.42 + 0.80 48.24 50.93 Put/Call Ratio 0.81 ******************************************************************* =========== Market Wrap =========== In a day of "hammock" trading, the Dow slide downward in the morning, but then traded higher in the afternoon to post a +46.05 gain, closing at 8919.01. The Nasdaq Composite elevated 11.12 points to finish the session at 1391.74. NYSE advancing issues exceeded decliners 2007 to 745, while Nasdaq performers outpaced lagers 2040 to 1180. Volume was extremely light in today's session with 1.2 billion shares exchanging hands on the NYSE, and 1.4 billion trading on the Nasdaq. The theme of the day could be vacation; perhaps that is where the majority of investors are. With NYSE volume weighing in exceptionally flimsy, directional conviction has certainly not been proven by the masses. Treasuries witnesses a slight amount of volume today with the 30- Year yield falling -0.21 to 5.006, and the 10-Year Treasury yield declining -0.22 to 4.026. Merger Kiss Swiss based Nestle foods made a bid for Hershey in the chocolaty name of $11.5 billion dollars. If the merger were to materialize, it would make Nestle the leading candy company in the United States. Although the move would help Nestle leap into the U.S. market, the proposed merger could raise issues with the DOJ and antitrust concerns. Hershey Foods (NYSE:HSY) rose +1.77 in today's session, to close at 76.80. A Better Debt Trap Fitch Investor's Service downgraded Walt Disney's (NYSE:DIS) debt today, lowering their rating to BBB+ from the previous A-. Disney has been having problems for quite some time stemming from poor amusement park attendance, a lack of hit shows on ABC, and growing concern about Michael Eisner's ability to affectively manage the company. Stay tuned, restructuring ahead! The Realest Estate Today produced two economic reports regarding real estate: Existing Home Sales, and New Home Sales. Existing Home Sales increased 4.5% in July. The report concluded 5.33 million existing home sales versus 5.30 expected by analysts. Sales increased in all regions of the nation except the West, which declined by 2%. The report indicates that existing home sales continue to show strength, even with the drop in June. However, sales are not as zealous as previous months. Many Americans have already taken advantage of low mortgage rates, or are being edged out of the market because of price affordability. New Home sales increased to 6.7% from June, with the largest gains coming from the Midwest and South. Analysts had expected 975 thousand new home sales, but were surprised with the 1017 reported. Inventories of new homes are lower, with July reporting 3.9, which is the tightest inventory since December of 2001, when the reading was 3.7. Many analysts agree that the surge in buyers is due to low mortgage rates. They also concur that if and when mortgage rates rise above 7%, the market could quickly cool off. Screening the Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index (DJUSHB), today's news helped the index to close above the 50-dma and the 200-dma. A move away from the averages could aid the DJUSHB to trade higher, though the index does have a considerable amount of congestion resistance to battle if ascension is to become a possibility. Investors could be starting to worry about rising interest rates, and thus, trader fears might create a "buy the rumor, sell the news" mentality. Chart of Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index, Daily. How Now Dow Cow Chart of: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Daily. Posting a modest gain on the day, the Dow has been trading in an ascending wedge for the last five weeks. The sell-off early in today's session bounced off of the 8750 region, which was also ascending support. For the Dow to trade higher, the index needs to move above technical and psychological resistance at 9000. Possibly hindering escalating progress are the daily Stochastics (currently in the overbought region), which could add weight to near-term buying momentum. On a positive note, the Dow has been able to stay above the 50-dma and could begin to build further support at 8750. Bears are looking for a breach of the ascending trend line to signal another turn towards the wayside. Chart of: Nasdaq 100, Daily. The Nasdaq 100 is still trying to move above the long-term resistance (upper red line), which is the descending trend line from the beginning of the correction in March of 2000. The index seems to be stuck in a tight range between the 50-day ma (pink line) and the near-term descending resistance (maroon line). A budge above the near-term descending resistance could signal an attempt to test the long-term resistance in the 1130 area. Traders will be closely watching the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X), GSTI Software Index (GSO.X), and the Biotech Index (BTK.X) for leading guidance. For a list of Nasdaq 100 companies click on the link: http://www2.barchart.com/sectors.asp?sec=0903.sec&hlt=QCOM&level= 2&title=Indices+Nasdaq+100 SpOILed Thoughts Chart of: Crude futures: October, Daily The "war premium" on oil continues to keep crude futures extended into the petroleum heavens. Comments by Dick Cheeney today indicated that he considered Saddam Hussein to a formidable threat "now", and that if Hussein is left alone, he could later use nuclear arms to strong-arm mid-east countries. Cheeney indicated that with Hussein continuing to acquire nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons of mass destruction, the United States needs to consider immediate military action. October Crude Futures lost -0.05 cents on the day closing at 29.23 per barrel. According to candlestick chartists, today's move could be a "tweezers top", and might indicate selling on the horizon. However, in light of the current political environment, technical analysis regarding oil futures could easily be thrown out of the window. How about a Thomas Jefferson list for which direction crude futures could go? ======================================================== Up | Down ======================================================== * U.S goes to war. | * Saudi Arabia increases | production. * OPEC decides to | * OPEC nations over decrease supply | produce (increase | supply). * Hussein destroys | * U.S. uses Strategic oil fields | Petroleum Reserve | to increase supply. * Cold Winter | * Notion of war | loses steam. | * Mild Winter ======================================================== Well, the list is certainly not a blowout, but it does seem that the reasons for oil to go down are more reasonable than an increase. Oil gurus seem to agree that although there is reason for the price of oil to be high, the current levels are not sustainable for long periods of time. Further, the U.S. government could intervene with the SPR, as oil at $29.00 dollars per barrel is not a good equation for economic recovery. Overall, today's lackluster volume indicates...vacation. Err, ugh, either that or skepticism is preventing investors from committing further funds to the market with September 11th, and a lack of economic certainly threatening monetary courage. Consumer confidence and spending could still be hampering investment dollars, as retail sales are not entering the high end of expectations. The markets are slowly drifting upwards on light volume, which is scary because it would seem that buyers are certainly not out in droves. I know I mentioned this last week, and hate to repeat myself once more, but volume is the key. If buyers start to accumulate in herds, then bulls could be believers in the recent move up. However, with light volume, one might conclude that bears are on vacation and when volume does return, it could be in the form of profit takers with sell tickets in hand. Though perhaps both bulls and bears have simply resigned from doing anything brazen until after September 11th and more economic data surfaces. Time + Volume = Market Direction/Trend. This week should provide further economic insight with Durable Orders tomorrow, Consumer Confidence on Wednesday, GDP on Thursday, and Personal Income on Friday. Watch for volume and (as Chevy Chase said in Caddy Shack) you will "Be the ball". Mark Whistler Editor mwhsitlerPremierInvestor.net ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 20.88 change: +0.41 WHAT TO WATCH: ADBE displayed relative strength on Monday, posting a 2.0% gain and closing near the best levels of the session. In a related development, the GSO.X software index successfully tested the 100 level today. This may indicative of a near-term reversal. It'll take a real effort by the bears to push the GSO under this region, which lies just above the 50-dma. ADBE has spent the past week consolidating its mid-August gains and looks poised to fill in the remainder of the August 1st gap. Bullish entries can be targeted on a move above the relative high at $21.12. --- Nicor Inc - GAS - close: 30.74 change: +0.84 WHAT TO WATCH: Helped along by a recent bounce in natural gas futures (ng02v), shares of GAS have rebounded impressively over the past month. The stock cratered to a low of $18.09 after the company revealed accounting irregularities in July. Recent action suggests that Wall Street thinks this sell-off may have been overdone. To be sure, going long this stock requires an aggressive trading strategy. Shares are technically overbought, and the issue of accounting concerns could rear its ugly head once again. However, those who are willing to handle the risk can target bullish entries on a move above today's high ($30.80). Today's close above $30.00 is a positive technical development that could bring more buyers off the sidelines. GAS is in the process of filling in its July 19th gap and has no overhead resistance until the declining 50-dma at $34.96. By targeting this level and placing a stop just under the relative low of $29.49, one can create a favorable risk/reward ratio. --- Honeywell - HON - close: 30.29 change: -0.06 WHAT TO WATCH: For slightly more than a month, HON has consolidated in a wedge pattern. The declining MACD and daily stochastic oscillators are signs that a breakdown could be on the horizon. The stock was relatively weak today, underperforming both the Dow Jones and DFX.X defense index. Speaking of the DFX, the overhead 50-day and 200-day moving averages pose a formidable challenge for the bulls. HON will be hard-pressed to maintain current levels if the defense group suffers a sector-wide decline. Short entries can be gauged on a move under today's low of $29.75. --- McDonalds Corp - MCD - close: 23.96 change: -0.19 WHAT TO WATCH: This Dow Component may give investors a bad case of indigestion. MCD has begun to rollover from just below psychological resistance at $25.00. Interestingly, extending a horizontal trend line from the 2001 lows shows that this level ($24.75) has also acted as resistance. Coincidence? Perhaps. But judging by today's relative weakness versus the Dow and the declining daily Stochastics (5,3,3), the bears appear to have the upper hand. Short entries can be considered on a move under today's low ($23.35), with an initial profit-target in the $21.75-$22.00 range. This is where MCD found support during its July and August sell-offs. --- Siebel Systems - SEBL - close: 9.91 change: +0.37 WHAT TO WATCH: Can you say "pivot point?" Shareholders of SEBL recently enjoyed a steep rally off the multi-year low of $7.40. The stock has spent the last three sessions meandering under psychological resistance at $10.00. A rollover from this level could lead to a round of profit-taking that takes SEBL back to the $8.00-$9.00 region. However, bulls should be watching for a move above $10.24. This would put the stock into its July 18th gap, thus clearing the way for a move to the 50-dma at $10.93. Short-term traders could target this level, while those with a longer timeframe could look for a move to the pre-gap range near $12.00. --- Schlumberger Ltd - SLB - close: 45.19 change: +1.65 WHAT TO WATCH: The oil service index (OSX.X) gained 2.7% today. The catalyst for this bullish action was a continued rally in front-month crude oil futures (cl02v), which tacked on 65 cents. Should this trend continue, SLB looks like a good candidate for a long play. Shares have broken above intermediate-term resistance at $44.00 and also successfully dealt with psychological resistance at $45.00. Today's relative strength versus the OIX bodes well for the bulls. Additional technical encouragement can be gleaned from the uptrending daily stochastics (5,3,3) and double-top p-n-f buy signal. In terms of specific action points, long positions can be gauged on a move above today's high ($45.41). We'd be looking for a rally to the next level of overhead resistance in the $49-$50 area. --- Staples Inc - SPLS - close: 14.05 change: -0.53 WHAT TO WATCH: After putting in a double-top near $17.50 last week, shares of SPLS proceeded to reach a multi-month low. The stock has enjoyed reliable long-term support in the $13.75 region, so a violation of this level could have bulls running for the exits. Daily stochastics are already entering the oversold region, but the newly-minted bearish MACD crossover is an indication that SPLS has plenty of downside remaining. Bears can also be encouraged by the double-bottom sell signal on the p-n-f chart. Aggressive traders can consider going short on break under $13.64. A reasonable profit target would be the September lows near $11.00. --- Telecom Brasil - TBH - close: 20.08 change: +1.22 WHAT TO WATCH: Brazil's Bovespa index rallied sharply today amid speculation that discussions between U.S. banks and government officials would lead to an influx of new lines of credit. Several banks also said that they would not reduce the country's credit rating. Although this news is seemingly positive, the presidential elections on October 27th continue to cast a cloud of uncertainty over Brazilian markets. With the Socialist- leaning candidate still holding on to a sizable lead in the polls, it's hard to imagine buyers rushing into shares of Brazilian ADR's such as TBH. Technically, the development to watch for is a rollover from psychological resistance at $20.00 (current levels), which is bolstered by the declining 50-dma at $20.17. TBH hasn't closed above this moving average since April. The stock is also near the top of its descending regression channel, and the daily stochastics (5,3,3) are approaching the overbought extreme. Unless more positive news surfaces to support TBH, odds of a pullback seem high. --- Unilever - UN - close: 58.48 change: -0.90 WHAT TO WATCH: The daily chart for UN looks an awful lot like the parabolic pattern a ball traces when you throw it into the air. After experiencing a powerful rally from the July lows near $48, shares seem to be obeying the laws of gravity. UN underperformed the Dow Jones on Monday and posted a 1.5% loss. This was enough to take the stock below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The MACD is beginning to curl lower near the baseline, and the p-n-f chart has just reversed into a column of "O's." Given this negative technical picture, we believe UN could eventually fill in its breakaway gaps above $54 and $52. Bearish positions could be gauged on a move under today's low ($57.88). Possible support exists in the $56.00 area, but the bulls would have a tough time defending this level if the broader market begins to sell off. =============== Play-of-the-Day (Non-tech BEARISH play) =============== Colgate Palmolive - CL - close: 53.26 change: -0.51 stop: 55.01 Company Description: Colgate-Palmolive is a leading global consumer products company, tightly focused on Oral Care, Personal Care, Household Surface Care, Fabric Care and Pet Nutrition. Colgate sells its products in over 200 countries and territories around the world under such internationally recognized brand names as Colgate, Palmolive, Mennen, Softsoap, Irish Spring, Protex, Sorriso, Kolynos, Ajax, Axion, Soupline, Suavitel and Fab, as well as Hill's Science Diet and Hill's Prescription Diet pet foods. (source: company press release) - ORIGINAL WRITE UP: August 23rd, 2002 - Why We Like It: It would seem that the economically sensitive cyclicals are hard- pressed to find confidence from bulls with a potential slow fiscal recovery. With the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYX.X) finding resistance at the 50-dma, the index might be in for a bit of cooling. Daily Stochastics give the impression being moribund, appearing to fall out of the overbought region. Weakness in the cyclical sector could help our short Colgate Palmolive to also find fragility. Most recently, CL staged an 18% rebound from the relative low on July 19th. As impressive as that bounce is, the stock has recently found formidable resistance at the 200-dma. The last two days have brought bears off the fence, promoting selling as the stock has seemingly run out of legs. As is the case with the CYC.X, the daily Stochastics for CL give the impression of descending from the overbought region, while the MACD looks as if it could be turning over. Our plan for this position is short and sweet: our trade will be triggered if the stock falls below today's low of $53.60, with a stop 10 cents above the 200-dma at 55.01. The newsletter's initial profit target is at $51.25, though if the stock approaches the 50-dma with bearish vigor, we will quickly transfer the profit objective to a lower level. Descending support lies at $52.50-53.00, and at the whole number of $52.00. If all things work out, cyclical bulls will collapse to the ground below. - Play-of-the-Day Comments: August 26th, 2002 - Our hypothetical short trade in CL was triggered this morning after the stock hit our entry point of $53.59. Shares underperformed the broader market and finished with a loss of nearly 1%. This relative weakness is a negative development that could bring more bears out of the woodwork on Tuesday. The oscillators are looking weak as well, with the daily stochastics plummeting and the MACD just beginning to cross over. In terms of sector strength, the CYC.X cyclical index remains under the 50-dma (505) and continues to look top-heavy. New short positions can be considered if CL falls under today's low at $52.76. Remember that our stop-loss for this play is set at $55.01. Picked on August 26th at $53.59 Results since picked: +0.33 Earnings Date 07/23/02 (confirmed) ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2002 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 08-26-2002 section 2 of 2 Copyright © 2002, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Net Bulls Tech Stocks Closed Plays: IBM (Bullish) Active Trader Non-Tech Stocks Triggered Plays: C, CL, PSS (Bearish) Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Net Bulls Tech Stocks (NB) section ================================================================= ======================= NB Closed Bullish Plays ======================= Intl Business Machines - IBM - cls: 79.42 chg: -0.98 stop: 78.99 The ability of IBM to remain above psychological support at $80.00 had given us hope that this week's trading would see more upside action. However, Monday morning's NASDAQ sell-off threw a wrench in those plans. IBM followed the Composite lower and violated our stop-loss ($78.99) within the first hour of trading. This play was closed for a hypothetical profit of 5.2%. The stock rebounded in afternoon trading but was unable to pare all its losses. So where might Big Blue be headed next? Bulls will not be thrilled with today's close under $80.00, and the declining daily stochastics and downward-curling MACD suggest that more selling pressure may be in the cards. A glance at the point-and-figure chart also shows that the stock has reversed into a column of "O's." Given the technical negativity, we believe shares may soon test psychological support at $75.00. Picked on August 15th at $75.06 Results since picked: +3.93 Earnings Date 07/15/02 (confirmed) ================================================================= Active Trader/Non-tech Stocks (AT) section ================================================================= =============== AT Play Updates =============== Triggered Plays (Bearish) ------------------------ Citigroup - C - close: 34.40 change: +0.40 stop: 35.66 Shares of Citigroup followed the Dow Jones lower on Monday morning and traded as low as $33.40. This short play was activated when C reached our action trigger at $34.49. Although an afternoon rebound erased those losses, the stock remains safely under resistance at $35.00. Traders still looking to get short may want to watch for a move under today's low. Those seeking additional bearish confirmation could wait for a break under $33.00...But be aware of possible congestion near $32.70. --- Colgate Palmolive - CL - close: 53.26 change: -0.51 stop: 55.01 Our hypothetical short trade in CL was triggered this morning after the stock hit our entry point of $53.59. Shares underperformed the broader market and finished with a loss of nearly 1%. This relative weakness is a negative development that could bring more bears out of the woodwork on Tuesday. A move below today's low ($52.76) might provide an opportunity to add short positions. Remember that our stop-loss is set at $55.01. --- Payless Shoesource - PSS - close: 53.99 change: +0.87 stop: 55.68 Trading in PSS roughly mirrored the Dow Jones on Monday. Shares declined during the first half of the session and reached our action trigger at $52.99. The stock fell to a low of $52.80 before rebounding with the broader market. Volume was somewhat weak, suggesting a lack of bullish conviction. The technical picture remains negative as well, with the daily stochastics (5,3,3) emerging from the overbought region. A break under today's low might lead to a short-term test of the $50.00 region. Now that we've entered this play, our stop is located at $55.68. ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Ticker Company Name Close Change AHC Amerada Hess Corporation 73.12 +1.14 OCFC Oceanfirst Financial Corp. 23.99 +0.75 HOV Hovnanian Enterprises 32.45 +1.33 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change PDII Pdi Inc. 6.80 +1.30 STXX Steel Technologies 15.80 +1.15 RTI Rti International Metal 11.14 +1.02 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change FSH Fisher Scientific Intr. 30.05 +1.65 HSY Hershey Foods 76.80 +1.77 FLIR Flir Systems Inc. 41.65 +1.23 UIC United Industrial 20.35 +1.35 JCOM J2 Global Communications 24.12 +2.69 FLO Flowers Foods Inc. 23.96 +1.26 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change SIE Sierra Health Services 20.54 -1.58 KRON Kronos Inc. 28.60 -1.65 PLB American Italian Pasta 36.11 -2.69 WTFC Wintrust Financial 33.38 -1.87 CAKE Cheesecake Factory Inc. 29.99 -1.07 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change TARO Taro Pharmaceuticals 30.94 -0.86 EAT Brinker International 28.72 -0.64 WTFC Wintrust Financial Corp. 33.38 -1.87 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2002 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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