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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 09/03/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 09-03-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Traders Came Back in a Bad Mood
Market Sentiment: Into the Deep End
Play-of-the-Day:  Just What the Bear Ordered

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------        
      09-03-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8308.05 -355.50  8659.27  8304.30 1,54 bln    742/2481
NASDAQ   1263.84 - 51.00  1302.67  1263.23 1,36 bln    847/2593
S&P 100   440.03 - 20.77   460.80   439.80   Totals   1589/5074
S&P 500   878.02 - 38.05   916.07   877.51 
RUS 2000  379.13 - 11.83   390.96   379.09 
DJ TRANS 2252.40 - 13.20  2308.28  2248.93   
VIX        43.86 +  8.06    44.13    39.16   
VXN        58.79 +  3.81    59.90    57.49
Total Vol   3,110M
Total UpVol   238M
Total DnVol 2,852M
52wk Highs    95
52wk Lows    283
TRIN        3.88
PUT/CALL    1.05
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Traders Came Back in a Bad Mood

It appears that traders came back from vacation with a chip on 
their shoulder. That chip was Intel and numerous brokers took
turns trying to knock it off. Add to the tech sector worries a
blow to financials, some weaker than expected economic reports
and a high profile bankruptcy and the end result was never in 
doubt. 

Dow Chart



Nasdaq Chart



Lehman analyst Dan Niles took aim at Intel today saying he 
expected them to guide analysts to the lower end of its prior 
range. Lehman said they expected Intel to cut their 3Q earnings 
by several cents as a result of an extremely back end loaded 
quarter. This means they have not sold enough yet to make the
numbers and they hope orders for the holiday will pull them 
out at the last minute. Lehman also said the product mix was
almost all low end processors and unit growth was in the low
single digit rates. Intel dropped nearly $1 in regular trading
and was still dropping in after hours. 

The bad news continued after the bell with a warning from Fairchild
Semiconductor. They said slowing orders in computing and consumer
sectors would slash their revenue to flat or down for the 3Q. They
also said that the 4Q seasonal uptick was shaping up to be very
modest with lower pricing the only thing helping to increase 
demand slightly. In English, you can sell anything if you sell
it cheap enough but there is still a limit to how much product 
you can move if there is no demand. Fairchild sells a broad number 
of commodity style chips into many broad markets. If Fairchild
is in trouble then everyone is in trouble. EMC announced after the 
bell that they still "hoped" to return to profitability in the 4Q 
but visibility in the IT market still remained "incredibly murky." 
The bottom line continues to be no orders for computers or anything
related to the sector. 

Citigroup took a serious hit with a -10% -3.36 drop today after
Prudential cut the money center bank to a sell rating. The WSJ
reported that the New York attorney general was looking into 
the activity of senior Salomon executives who handed out shares
of hot IPO stocks like party favors. Analysts are worried there
could be criminal charges, sanctions and multibillion dollar
judgments. Other analysts are worried that the inquiry will 
spread out to other more active investment bankers and involve
other institutions as well. This could cause shareholder suits,
penalties and changes in the way this business is conducted. 

There are 38,000 fewer trucks on the road tonight after Consolidated
Freightways (CF) closed its doors today. Over 16,000 employees 
found out they were unemployed by a recorded phone call or over
the companies website. Lots were padlocked as the company suddenly
ceased operations. CF was the third largest less than full load
shipper in the country. Yellow and Roadway are expected to profit
from their demise. 

That was not the only announcement of layoffs today. The WSJ
reported that IBM was going to layoff another 4,000+ workers on
top of the 15,000 already announced. Things not going well in 
the tech sector? Actually this was as a result of its merger
with Price Waterhouse. BUT, according to the WSJ the companies 
were quoted as saying that the global demand for IT services was
still declining with an upturn not expected until the second
half of 2003 at the earliest. Surprise, surprise!

Economically speaking today was not a good day. The Challenger
Report announced that job cuts rose to the highest level in the
last six months in August. Job cuts rose to -118,067 and set the
tone for the next three months, which are the worst months of 
the year for layoffs. This year is shaping up to be the second 
worst year since 1989. The number averaged 50,000 a month in 
the 1990s but has averaged 100,000 a month since early 2001 as
the recession took hold. Weak profits are causing employers to
cut back staff and close excess capacity. This problem is far
from over and follows what I have been predicting for several
months. This also sets up the Friday Jobs Report to be weak at
best when you consider unemployment claims rose over 400,000
last week. 

Even worse than the Challenger news was the Institute of Supply
Management report for August, which came in lower than expected.
The headline 50.5 number, only .5 above recession levels, was
substantially below the 52.0 level expected. Even worse the new
orders component fell to 49.7 and the order backlog to 45.0. Both
recessionary levels. Inventories also rose from 41.8 to 45.2 and
showed that demand is simply not keeping up with even the current
weak supply levels. This all means that we may already be in the
second dip despite what the Fed keeps telling us. Surprisingly
inflation pressures are also beginning to build in the 
manufacturing sector. There just does not seem to be any good
news to be found. With two months of almost zero growth and a
deterioration of the internal components the chances of another
Fed rate cut doubled to 36% intraday as evidenced by the futures. 
The problem across all sectors appears to be rising inventory 
and decreasing demand with retailers refusing to take more 
product than they feel they can sell and manufacturers being 
forced to shutdown production lines as finished goods stack up. 

Last night the Japan market sank to an 18-year low at 9217. The
consumer confidence in Italy sank to a three year low. Investors
are pulling funds out of equities the world over as the global 
contagion from the US recession spreads. TrimTabs.com reported 
that money still flowed out of funds in the US in August at the
rate of -$7.1 billion. Granted this was much slower than the 
July rate of -$52 billion but it still meant funds had net
outflows and had to sell stocks to satisfy withdrawals. With the
market starting September off with a bang you can bet that fund
managers will be swamped with outflows again this week. With 
several other high profile economic reports leading up to the
NonFarm Payrolls on Friday as well as the Intel mid-quarter 
update on Thursday, this week is not shaping up as a winner.

As evidenced by the Fairchild announcement tonight we are moving
into the earnings warning season for the 3Q. There are just too
many negatives and no positives as we go forward. Investors are
just too skittish to hold stocks until after 9/11 and if the 
economic numbers do not improve they may not want to hold them
after 9/11 either. This was a very bad day in the markets with
decliners beating advancers better than 3:1 and down volume
beating up volume by 12:1. The VIX spiked to close near 44 with
a +8.06 gain for the day. The TRIN closed at 3.88 and the Put/Call
ratio at 1.05. Given just those numbers most traders would think
tomorrow would bring a huge rally. The problem remains, rally 
on what? We may be very oversold but remember we saw VIX readings
over 50 in July and TRIN readings over 6.00. Things are bad but
they can get worse. Use any rally as an entry point for new
short positions until next week.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor


================
Market Sentiment
================

Into the Deep End 

by Steven Price

The September "calm before the storm" never materialized.  
Hurricane sell-off came in like a lion and will most likely roar 
for a while.   Today's drop broke six straight years of Dow 
increases following the Labor Day weekend.  These gains were 
followed by large losses for the month of September over the last 
four years.  If today's 355-point loss in the Dow is a sign of 
things to come, then we could be re-testing the July lows in a 
matter of days.  The main component that makes this year so 
different is what happened at this time last year.  We are just 8 
days away from the September 11 anniversary and apparently 
investors don't want to be around for what may happen.  The Dow 
crashed through support levels as though they were rice paper 
after today's ISM report came in at 50.5%, below expectations of 
52%.  While any number over 50% still shows expansion, this 
report was not received well; neither were the comments about 
managers not being confident in forecasts going forward.  The 
component that was most disturbing was new orders, which came in 
at 49.5, or a level that showed contraction.  

That was all the market needed to get rolling downhill, but it 
still got a little help elsewhere.  Lehman downgraded Intel, 
saying it thought revenue would come in lower than current 
projections, and predicted Intel would cut earnings estimates in 
its Thursday mid-quarter update. 

Other downgrades included a UBS cut of Ford to "reduce" from 
"hold," due to pension problems and non-competitive practices, 
which are likely to cause large cash outflows for years.  
Citigroup also fell under the ax.  Prudential cut the stock to a 
"sell," citing earnings predictions, Enron-related problems and 
continuing issues related to Salomon Smith Barney analyst 
activities.

All in all there was not much to keep the exit doors closed.  The 
Nasdaq Composite looks headed back to 1200, while the NDX has 
already broken below 900, finishing the day at 899.64.  The Dow, 
which had been holding support above 8500, took out the 8500 and 
8300 levels.  8000 looks like the next big number to the 
downside.  On the way up from the July crash, the Dow stopped at 
8030 on its pullback and took off from there.  Today's close of 
8308.05 has already broken the series of higher lows on each 
pullback and could be a signal that the tide is turning.  

Job cuts in August reached a 6 month high of 118,000, not 
including the 15,000 lost jobs at Consolidated Freightways, which 
announced a shut down and Chapter 11 filing this morning.  Nor 
did it include the speculation of 4,000 cuts by IBM as they 
acquire the consulting arm of Price Waterhouse Coopers.

What is also a telling reversal is a look at the bullish 
percentages, which show the ratio of stocks in an index that are 
currently on Point and Figure buy signals.  These percentages in 
the Dow, NDX and S&P 500 have all been over 50 since the middle 
of August.  After today, the NDX, which has led the other 
averages for the last few months, is back down to 42%.  This 
index encompasses many of the largest tech stocks, and could be 
foreshadowing a reversal in the other averages, as well.

Look for some type of bounce after such a large one-day loss 
today.  However, the month of September is usually a down month 
and with September 11 looming, don't expect that bounce to be too 
high.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10679
52-week Low :  7702
Current     :  8308

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8851
 50-dma: 8718
200-dma: 8663

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1226
52-week Low :  797
Current     :  878

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  930
 50-dma:  915
200-dma: 1063

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1782
52-week Low :  892
Current     :  899

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  984
 50-dma:  974
200-dma: 1316


-----------------------------------------------------------------


The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X): Today's downgrade of Intel led a 
sell-off in the SOX.  Lehman cut its revenue forecasts and 
predicted an earnings cut by Intel in its mid-quarter update on 
Thursday.  The index fell through support at 300, and is now 
testing recent lows of 282.75, finishing today at 284.94. If the 
index breaks this level, we have to look back to 1998 to find 
support at 255. Below 250 and we could see 200 soon.  The index 
gave up a recent 80 point rally, so these levels may not be far 
off without some good news in the near future. 

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 282
Current     : 284

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 324
 50-dma: 344
200-dma: 488



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX rocketed back up today, as the Dow plummeted and traders 
pumped up the premium ahead of 9/11.  While 43 appears high, it 
was only a couple of months ago that we saw 56.  Until fears of 
another attack are allayed, don't expect to see the VIX fall too 
far from this level.  The Dow is also taking out support levels, 
as are the Nasdaq and S&P 500.  As long as the downward momentum 
continues, the VIX should continue its upward climb.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 43.86 +8.06
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 58.79 -3.81

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          1.06        434,896       459,741
Equity Only    1.46        135,480       197,290
OEX            1.35         30,237        40,764
QQQ            1.59         21,150        33,581

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          44      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    42      -10     Bull Correction
DOW           57      + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       54      - 4     Bull Alert
S&P 100       49      - 7     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.97
10-Day Arms Index  1.62
21-Day Arms Index  1.34
55-Day Arms Index  1.35

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE        530          2882
NASDAQ      757          3479

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         30              45
NASDAQ       60             139

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,498
NASDAQ   1,387

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/27/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials added 3,000 contracts to their long positions, while 
small traders reduced longs by almost 4,000.  Small traders also 
added a similar amount to the short side.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
08/06/02      431,590   478,879   (47,289)   (5.2%)
08/13/02      427,618   475,536   (47,918)   (5.3%)
08/20/02      422,100   469,556   (47,456)   (5.3%)
08/27/02      425,982   469,087   (43,105)   (4.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/06/02      159,561    67,434    92,127     40.5%
08/13/02      155,040    66,546    88,494     39.9%
08/20/02      156,974    69,071    87,903     38.9%
08/27/02      153,152    72,408    80,744     35.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Commercials increased their long contracts by 3,500 contracts, 
and added only 1,200 to the short side.  Small traders, on the 
other hand, reduced long contracts by 1,200, while leaving shorts 
relatively unchanged.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
08/06/02       41,014     50,025    (9,011) ( 9.9%)
08/13/02       42,303     50,354    (8,051) ( 8.7%)
08/20/02       41,876     49,461    (7,585) ( 8.3%)
08/27/02       45,354     50,634    (5,280) ( 5.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/06/02       11,547     8,782     2,765    13.6%
08/13/02       12,797     8,933     3,864    17.8%
08/20/02       11,321     7,980     3,341    17.3%
08/27/02       10,156     8,040     2,116    11.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials reduced their shorts by 1,000 contracts, while 
leaving long positions approximately the same.  Small traders 
increased both positions slightly. 


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/06/02       23,491    14,290    9,201      24.4%
08/13/02       22,837    13,833    9,004      24.6%
08/20/02       21,160    15,349    5,811      15.9%
08/27/02       21,023    14,328    6,695      18.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/06/02        7,981     9,258    (1,277)   ( 7.4%)
08/13/02        5,050     8,349    (3,299)   (24.6%)
08/20/02        6,216     8,163    (1,947)   (13.5%)
08/27/02        6,825     8,438    (1,613)   (10.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------



===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((new BEARISH high-risk/high-reward play))
===============

IDEC Pharmaceuticals - IDPH - cls: 38.99 chg: -1.19 stop: *text*

Company Description:
IDEC Pharmaceuticals focuses on the commercialization and 
development of targeted therapies for the treatment of cancer and 
autoimmune diseases. IDEC's antibody products act chiefly through 
immune system mechanisms, exerting their effect by binding to 
specific, readily targeted immune cells in the patient's blood or 
lymphatic systems. IDEC is headquartered in San Diego, 
California, and is traded on the NASDAQ National Market System 
under the stock symbol, IDPH. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The Biotech Index ($BTK.X) showed potential sickness today, as it 
fell underneath the 50-dma for the first time in 17 days.  The 
index closed at 326.46, dipping under near term relative support 
in the 327 region.  Bears seem to have their eyes on the 
faltering sector, as the daily Stochastics for the BTK.X have 
also collapsed into the oversold region. 

Bears are watching IDPH, as the stock also closed under the 50-
dma today for the first time in 35 days.  The technical event was 
observed by the daily Stochastics, which have tumbled into the 
oversold region.  Further, the MACD looks as if it is rolling 
over the baseline and could go negative.  In addition, the point 
& figure chart is at a double bottom sell signal.  The stock also 
recently fell underneath the 200-Week MA, a nominal occurrence 
that could shake out weary bulls.  

The newsletter is considering IDPH as a short, though given the 
volatile nature of Biotech companies; this play will certainly be 
filed in our high risk/high reward section.  Furthermore IDPH is 
going in our HR section because compared to the BTK.X and broader 
market, the stock displayed decent relative strength in today's 
session.  We will put a trigger one penny below today's low at 
$38.59.  If prompted, our initial stop will be above the high 
yesterday at $41.80.  Our preliminary profit target is at $32.51, 
just above near-term support.  Note that we will NOT enter this 
play if IDPH gaps lower and begins trading under $38.00.

For Annotated Chart: Click Here
Chart of: IDPH, Daily.



Picked on August xxth at $xx.xx <--- see text 
Results since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date          07/17/02 (confirmed)
 






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Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 09-03-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bearish Play Updates:  QLGC, SBC, SYMC
  Closed Bearish Plays:  MXIM

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  CLX
  Bearish Play Updates:  C, CB, COX, CTX, PSS, RKY, RTH

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:     IDPH
  Closed Bullish Plays:  SFA

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Qlogic - QLGC - cls: 32.36 chg: -1.19 stop: 35.41

Ravenous bears ran amok in the chip sector on Tuesday after 
Lehman Brothers issued negative comments on INTC.  The market 
seems to be pricing in an earnings warning from the semiconductor 
giant.  Last week the company's CEO hinted that downward guidance 
could be in store, and now the brokerages are beginning to warn 
investors about a lack of demand.  INTC pulled back by 4.8% on 
this news.  Much like INTC, the SOX.X is now dangerously close to 
setting new multi-year lows.  Tomorrow's action could be very 
telling.  The index has seen sharp losses over the past week, and 
this would be a logical place for shorts to take some profits off 
the table.  However, further negative news or general bearishness 
in the tech sector could have the SOX.X freefalling to new lows.  
Should this occur, we'd likely see QLGC reach our exit target of 
$30.51.  Shares showed some relative strength today by pulling 
back 3.5%.  While the bulls might consider this a victory, 
they'll have a very difficult time maintaining current levels if 
the sector continues to sell off.  Although we're keeping our 
stop at $35.41, traders looking to protect a large gain may want 
to use a stop just above today's high ($33.38).  The Premier 
Investor newsletter is currently up 14.5% in this play.

Picked on August 23rd at $37.85 
Results since picked:     +5.49
Earnings Date          07/18/02 (confirmed)




---

SBC Comm. - SBC - cls: 23.10 chg: -1.64 stop: 25.06 *new*

We're getting close!  Shares of SBC were spanked for a 6.6% loss 
today.  The stock appeared to face continued selling pressure 
related to last week's earnings warning from BLS.  Of course the 
fact that the Dow Jones fell by 355 points also helped the bears' 
cause.  SBC closed just ten cents above the lows of the day and 
is quickly approaching our profit-target of $22.26.  We could 
easily see this level eclipsed tomorrow if the Dow keeps falling.  
Aggressive traders may want to attempt to ride SBC below the 52-
week low of $22.20.  Also note that we're tightening our stop to 
$25.06, just above psychological resistance.  This should protect 
a gain of 8.8% from our original entry point.

Picked on August 21st at $27.49 
Results since picked:     +4.39
Earnings Date          07/23/02 (confirmed)

 

--- 


Symantec Corp. - SYMC - close: 27.66 change: -0.94 stop: 30.64

Bearish brokerage comments on INTC and a plethora of negative 
economic data had the NASDAQ moving sharply lower on Tuesday 
morning.  This short play was activated at the opening trade of 
$28.29 after SYMC gapped below our entry trigger.  Shares 
finished the day with a 3.2% loss and displayed more fortitude 
than the GSO.X software index, which shed 4.5%.  The bulls can be 
pleased with this relative strength, but the strong volume behind 
today's decline indicates that more downside lies ahead.  The 
recent double-bottom p-n-f breakdown could also bring more 
sellers out of the woodwork.  If this is the case, new entries 
can be targeted on a move under today's low of $27.21.  Our stop 
is currently set at $30.64.

Picked on September 3rd at $28.29 
Results since picked:       +0.63
Earnings Date            07/17/02 (confirmed)





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Maxim Integrated - MXIM - cls: 29.93 chg: -1.68 stop: 33.01

Mission Accomplished!  The chip sector was weak from the get-go 
this morning after Lehman Brothers issued negative comments on 
INTC.  The SOX.X plummeted below the 300 support level and 
finished the session just two points above the multi-year low.  
MXIM mirrored the index's decline and pulled back by 5.3%.  This 
play, however, was closed for a 14.9% gain when the stock hit our 
profit-target of $30.10 in morning trading.  Those who elected to 
maintain short positions in MXIM should be keeping a close eye on 
how the SOX.X behaves at current levels.  A break under 282.75 
could trigger another downward leg for the semi group.  
Tomorrow's earnings report from NSM could provide the catalyst 
for such a breakdown.  We'd also recommend keeping tight stops on 
MXIM in order to protect against a possible oversold bounce.  
Today's close under $30.00 is a positive sign for the bears, but 
the oversold daily stochastics indicate that a relief rally could 
emerge at any time.

Picked on August 23rd at $35.38
Results since picked:     +5.28
Earnings Date          08/06/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Clorox Corp. - CLX - close: 41.90 change: -1.16 stop: *text*

CLX continues to display impressive relative strength.  Shares 
pulled back by 2.6% today, which is significantly better than the 
Dow Jones' 4.1% decline.  This is an indication that the stock 
could lead the way higher when the broader market rebounds.  Of 
course, "when" is the operative word here.  Our entry trigger 
currently lies at $43.49.  We'd be hesitant to keep this trigger 
in place if CLX dipped towards the 50-dma near $40.00, especially 
considering that the oscillators are looking top-heavy.  For the 
time being, we'll look for CLX to keep outperforming the Dow and 
make its way towards breakout territory.  If this play is 
activated we'll use a stop at $41.99.

Picked on September xth at xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date           08/07/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Citigroup Inc - C - close: 29.39 change: -3.36 stop: 31.26 *new*

Bears are very happy that this stock has moved into our profit 
objective region.  Today brought news that the current probe into 
Citigroup's allocation of hot IPO shares could widen as congress 
gears up to hold more hearings regarding the company.  Also, 
Prudential Securities downgraded C to "sell", a very rare rating 
on Wall Street.  Folks, this could get ugly, and we're glad to be 
along for the ride.  We will begin "challenging" this stock with 
trailing stops as this stock begins to slide. Thus, given today's 
events we will lower our stop on C to just above today's high at 
$31.26.  Bears are VERY encouraged by today's trading action, and 
for the time being, will not put a specific profit target on 
Citigroup.         

Picked on August 26th at $33.49
Results since picked:     +4.10
Earnings Date          07/17/02 (confirmed)




---

Chubb Corporations - CB - cls: 60.25 chg: -1.64 stop: 63.70 *new*

With no fresh buzz on Chubb today, the stocks move may be 
attributed to broader market selling.  The Dow closed down 355.45 
today, causing many NYSE companies to falter at the knees just 
eight days before the September 11th 2002.  Speaking of Sept. 
11th, we are guessing that the insurance sector will probably not 
perceive much buying before the anniversary.  The newsletter will 
move the stop down to one penny above the 50-dma at $63.70.     

Picked on August 28th at $62.49
Results since picked:     +2.24
Earnings Date          07/29/02 (confirmed)




---

Cox Comm. - COX - cls: 24.11 chg: -1.74 stop: $26.26 *new*

Without any innovative news surfacing on COX today, the company's 
stock price decline may be ascribed to expansive market frailty.  
The cable company faltered -6.73% in the session, breaking the 
recent relative low of four days ago at $24.40.  The stock has 
fallen under the 50-dma, with the daily Stochastics also slipping 
out of the overbought region.  We were slightly concerned about 
this position on Friday, though today's news has renewed the 
confidence of bears as the stock continues to look weak.  To 
slightly challenge this trade, we will move our stop down to 
$26.26, just one penny above Friday's high.

Picked on August 28th at $24.64
Results since picked:     +0.53
Earnings Date          07/31/02 (confirmed)




---

Centex Corp. - CTX - cls: 47.46 chg: -3.03 stop: 50.26 *new*

* Triggered Play*

Triggered this morning at $49.99, Centex Corporation lost -6.00% 
on the day.  With no company specific news affecting CTX, today's 
drop can be attributed to broader market weakness and 
vulnerability in the Dow Jones US Home Construction Index.  The 
DJUSHB lost -4.99% today, as the daily Stochastics moved closer 
towards the oversold region.  Three days ago, the DJUSHB 50-dma 
crossed under the 200-dma, a technical event that could have 
bears eyeing the homebuilders as potential prey.  Another 
encouraging event for bears; today's drop in CTX pushed the stock 
under the 50-dma, and could entice more selling.  The newsletter 
will move the stop down to $50.26, which is just above the 50-
dma.    

Picked on September 3rd at $49.99 
Results since picked:       +2.53
Earnings Date            07/17/02 (confirmed)




---

Payless Shoesource - PSS - cls: 50.89 chg: -2.01 stp: 54.40 *new*

Payless Shoes unearthed weakness in the company's stock today, as 
the Dow lost -4.10%.  PSS fell early in the morning as pressure 
from bears grew during the first part of the session.  Bulls 
tried to keep the stock up in mid-day trading, though selling 
pressure overpowered eager buyers into the afternoon.  Bears 
would like to see PSS close under the 50-dma in the next few days 
to help confirm technical weakness.  The newsletter will move the 
stop down to 54.40, which is just above the high five days ago.  
New positions could be considered at current levels, though with 
the 50-dma underneath, a new short position at this level could 
be risky.    

Picked on August 26th at $52.99
Results since picked:     +2.10
Earnings Date          08/14/02 (confirmed)




---

Adolph Coors - RKY - cls: 59.25 chg: -0.80 stop: *text*

Our short in Adolph Coors was not triggered in today's trading, 
as the stock never traded below our entry point at $58.24. The 
stock is fighting to fall beneath the 50-dma and the whole number 
at $59.00.  However, the stock remains below the 200-dma, and 
could still see selling. If our entry is triggered, the 
newsletter will keep its initial stop at $60.25. 

Picked on August xxth at $xx.xx <-- See text 
Results since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date          07/25/02 (confirmed)




---

Retail Hldrs - RTH - close: 78.09 change: -2.16 stop: 81.26 *new*

Weaker economic data weighed heavily on the retail sector today 
as investors feared a potential lack of future consumer 
confidence.  This morning, the Challenger Report was released by 
Challenger, Gray and Christmas. The report indicated that layoff 
activity increased in August for the first time since last 
February. There were 118,067 job- cuts in August versus 80,970 in 
July. The report points out sustained weakness in the economy, 
and points out that Corporate America is still wounded.  Thus, 
the RTH seemed to find vulnerability, as buyers were nowhere to 
be found. The newsletter will move its stop down to $81.26, 
eleven cents above yesterday's high.  

Picked on August 26th at $80.70
Results since picked:     +2.61
Earnings Date               N/A


 



==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

IDEC Pharmaceuticals - IDPH - cls: 38.99 chg: -1.19 stop: *text*

Company Description:
IDEC Pharmaceuticals focuses on the commercialization and 
development of targeted therapies for the treatment of cancer and 
autoimmune diseases. IDEC's antibody products act chiefly through 
immune system mechanisms, exerting their effect by binding to 
specific, readily targeted immune cells in the patient's blood or 
lymphatic systems. IDEC is headquartered in San Diego, 
California, and is traded on the NASDAQ National Market System 
under the stock symbol, IDPH. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The Biotech Index ($BTK.X) showed potential sickness today, as it 
fell underneath the 50-dma for the first time in 17 days.  The 
index closed at 326.46, dipping under near term relative support 
in the 327 region.  Bears seem to have their eyes on the 
faltering sector, as the daily Stochastics for the BTK.X have 
also collapsed into the oversold region. 

Bears are watching IDPH, as the stock also closed under the 50-
dma today for the first time in 35 days.  The technical event was 
observed by the daily Stochastics, which have tumbled into the 
oversold region.  Further, the MACD looks as if it is rolling 
over the baseline and could go negative.  In addition, the point 
& figure chart is at a double bottom sell signal.  The stock also 
recently fell underneath the 200-Week MA, a nominal occurrence 
that could shake out weary bulls.  

The newsletter is considering IDPH as a short, though given the 
volatile nature of Biotech companies; this play will certainly be 
filed in our high risk/high reward section.  Furthermore IDPH is 
going in our HR section because compared to the BTK.X and broader 
market, the stock displayed decent relative strength in today's 
session.  We will put a trigger one penny below today's low at 
$38.59.  If prompted, our initial stop will be above the high 
yesterday at $41.80.  Our preliminary profit target is at $32.51, 
just above near-term support.  Note that we will NOT enter this 
play if IDPH gaps lower and begins trading under $38.00.

For Annotated Chart: Click Here
Chart of: IDPH, Daily.



Picked on August xxth at $xx.xx <--- see text 
Results since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date          07/17/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Scientific Atlanta - SFA - close: 13.59 change: -1.15 stop: *text

On Friday morning we came within a hair's width of being 
triggered in this long play.  However, shares proceeded to 
rollover from resistance at $15.25 and moved steadily lower for 
the rest of the session.  Today's action saw the bears feasting 
on cable-related issues, as CMCSK, COX, and CVC all posted hefty 
declines.  SFA finished the session with a 7.8% loss.  With the 
oscillators rolling lower and the NASDAQ looking like it might 
retest the 1200 level, the bulls will have a tough time pushing 
SFA above resistance.  An eventual breakout might be worth 
playing, but only if the technical picture and underlying market 
conditions improve.  We're dropping this un-triggered play 
tonight.
 
Picked on August xth at $xx.xx <- see text 
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         07/18/02 (confirmed)
 




=================
  Trading Ideas
=================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

PKX     Posco                      23.40     0.55

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name              Close     Change 

SV      Stilwell Financial Inc.    15.00     +1.06
--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

YELL    Yellow Corporation         25.05     +2.76
BLL     Ball Corporation           50.93     +1.12
ABFS    Arkansas Best Corp.        25.76     +5.18
VNX     Veridian Corp.             20.95     +1.05

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SPY     Standard & Poor's Dep.     88.28     -3.50
HUG     Hughes Supply Inc.         26.69     -2.04
SLAB    Silicon Laboratories Inc.  19.60     -1.99
ABS     Albertson's Inc.           24.53     -1.19
MTEC    Meridian medical Tech.     26.81     -3.45
PBG     Pepsi Bottling Group       26.30     -2.90
DOV     Dover Corporation          27.33     -1.40

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

HB      Hillenbrand Industries     58.07     -0.95
CLE     Claires Stores Inc.        20.41     -0.87
HDI     Harley-Davidson Inc.       47.13     -2.10
IGT     Internet Game Technologies 62.67     -2.01
ROP     Roper Industries Inc.      33.45     -1.30
MHK     Mohawk Industries Inc.     48.53     -0.97




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