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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 09/10/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 09-10-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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For HTML version:
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      What's Up?
Market Sentiment: The Bigger They Are...
Play-of-the-Day:  An Aging Face

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------        
      09-10-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8602.61 + 83.20  8602.61  8502.32 1.37 bln   1780/1365
NASDAQ   1320.10 + 15.50  1322.43  1299.53 1.41 bln   1774/1560
S&P 100   455.89 +  4.62   455.90   450.62   Totals   3554/2925
S&P 500   909.58 +  6.62   909.89   900.50 
RUS 2000  394.16 +  1.69   394.58   389.53 
DJ TRANS 2287.60 + 24.20  2294.67  2259.42   
VIX        36.96 -  1.44    38.40    36.78   
VXN        53.07 -  2.40    56.57    53.03
Total Vol   2,949M
Total UpVol 1,783M
Total DnVol   980M
52wk Highs   142
52wk Lows    195
TRIN        0.96
PUT/CALL       0.65
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

What's Up?

The short answer is the market! On the day before a possible 
flood of anniversary attacks by terrorists or copy cats trying
to capitalize on the event, the buyers appeared. A high profile
announcement by the government that the terrorist risk was at
the highest level since 9/11/01 simply produced a dip back to 
intraday support and then another rally to the highs of the day.
What is up with this?

Dow Chart



Nasdaq Chart



The day started out more like Christmas Eve than Halloween.
Expectations for a post 9/11 rally were shown in the positive
markets and even the few goblins that showed up intraday could
not scare away the bulls. The "fix" was in and it appeared 
nobody wanted to let the markets drop. If you doubt the conspiracy
theory and the plunge protection team intervention stories then
why did the S&P futures close the regular session exactly at 
911 after a strong futures led buy program in the last 15 minutes? 
Just a coincidence, right?

Intel shook off the cautious comments by its president yesterday
and closed up +.39 cents for the day. Intel pledged to increase
the speed of its chips and include hyper threading in the majority
of its chips next year. That feature allows the processor to run
about 25% faster than chips without it. They demonstrated a
Pentium4 running at 4.7GHZ or almost double the speed of current 
P4 chips. They demonstrated a new Itanium chip with 500 million
transistors and said a one billion transistor chip is already 
under development. The biggest news was its wireless connectivity
announcements which allows laptops to connect to the Internet
wirelessly. They claim they are capturing market share and will
increase margins with the integrated chips. 

Not to be outdone HPQ announced a new chip architecture that would
enable 1000 transistors to fit on the end of a human hair. This
ability could lead to memory chips that are 1/10th the size or
offer 10 times as much capacity. AMD announced its Fin Field 
Effect that could lead to a billion transistor chip the same 
size as the current 100 million transistor chip. 

All these chip advances produced bullishness in the chip sector.
The SOX came off the bottom and back to resistance at 300. This
was aided by news that NVDA had increased its order for wafers,
which led investors to guess that business was improving. News
out of Taiwan was that mother board production climbed +9% in
August. Bulls were absolutely giddy about all this positive news.
The current business model appears to be if you build a fast
enough chip they will buy. 

This of course requires that buyers have money. It was announced
today that 640,000 homes were in foreclosure during the Apr/May/Jun
period. This was the highest rate in the 30 years of tracking by
the Mortgage Bankers Association. The low down, interest only and
high equity loans have suckered consumers into payments they 
cannot handle in a weak economy and weak unemployment. Previous
surveys had not predicted this problem and it calls into question
the current real estate bubble. With unemployment expected to go
over 6% soon this problem will grow. Consumers with high debt
have been lured to roll this debt into home equity loans and
off their credit cards. Once rolled the cards are free to be used
again and once maxed out the cycle is complete. More debt, no way
out and a loose job market prevents them from moving up to a 
higher paying position. The survey also showed an increase to nearly
5% of all home owners those who were behind in their payments
30 days or more. Since homeowners with foreclosures on their credit
are no longer home buyers but lifetime renters it means an entire
sector of the population can no longer buy a home regardless of 
how cheap the interest will be.   

Tomorrow will not depend on stock news. It will be directly related
to world and national events OR the lack of them. Regardless of
what brought us to the closing level of 911 on the futures or 
faster chips and bursting housing bubbles, with no terrorist event
the buyers will return. If we do have an event somewhere else on
the globe the market will probably open down and then rally if
nothing happens here. If we have an event here it will depend on
the magnitude of the event as to the market reaction. Obviously
they are not going to be able to pull off another event of WTC
proportions without a nuclear weapon. As I have said earlier I
doubt there will be a large scale attack tomorrow. There may be
some small events around the world but nothing big in the US. 
Terrorists are cowards. They want to strike when nobody expects
them. They do not want to face an armed security force that will
shoot first and ask questions later. In a surprising move the
defense department has now ordered that the antiaircraft defense
systems deployed around Washington yesterday as only an "exercise"
now be loaded with live rockets. (Did anybody really believe it
was an exercise?)

The problem is not tomorrow. The problem is next Monday. If we do 
rally on Wednesday it could carry over for a couple days. Monday
will be the pivot point. That is where the fundamentals will start
being important again. Mutual funds will know by Monday if deposits
are going to return. Traders on the fence will have used the weekend
to analyze the weeks events and decide if the bull market has returned
or if it was just temporary. This is where the markets must stand 
on their own shaky legs and take on all comers. This is where normal
markets return. Unfortunately normal markets go down in Sept and 
October. Normal markets are plagued with earnings warnings by 
the dozens in September and missed estimates in October. Normal
markets are not supported by the Fed. Geenspan speaks on Thursday
and is expected to say that the economy does not need another rate
cut and will eventually get there on its own. He is on record
recently for missing the boat on slowing the last bubble. He does
not want a new bubble and is quite content to see the economy 
struggle for a couple more years as long as growth is still present. 
Bush speaks at the United Nations and is expected to tell them to
get in line or get out of the way as he attacks Iraq on his own. 
This is not a speech that will be taken lightly around the world
or at home. Yes, normal markets are just a few hours away. Are we
ready?


Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor

Please be advised that during tomorrow's Memorial Service for 
September 11th, the following exchanges will experience changes 
to their opening schedules: Please note the differences. 

NASDAQ
In memoriam and remembrance of the events of 
September 11, 2001, NASDAQ will delay its Market 
Open on September 11, 2002, until 11 a.m. Eastern Time.

NYSE/AMEX
On Sept. 11, the New York Stock Exchange will open 
for trading 30 minutes after the conclusion of the
memorial service being held at the World Trade Center site, but not
before 11 a.m. Should the event last longer than its anticipated 
10:29 a.m. conclusion, the NYSE will delay its opening beyond 11 a.m. 
The Exchange will announce the exact timing of the opening bell 
following the conclusion of the memorial service. 


================
Market Sentiment
================

The Bigger They Are...

by Steven Price

The day many investors have been waiting on pins and needles for 
is finally here.  In spite of predictions of a massive sell-off, 
the Dow, Nasdaq Composite and NDX all rallied heartily today.  
The government raised our security status to high-alert, citing 
credible and specific threats to U.S. overseas installations, and 
the bulls only took a temporary break.  

The rally was pretty much industry wide, with even the 
beleaguered Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) making a run through 300 
resistance intraday.  It settled back below that level, but  a 
3.6% gain, after setting 52-week lows just a few days ago, 
indicates that buyers are creeping back in market wide.  The fact 
that we have had more tech warnings and lowering of estimates for 
both 2002 and 2003 and yet the tech indices are all higher, 
demonstrates that there are an awful lot of investors out there 
with 401(k) dollars waiting to re-invest.  

The Dow found support at the 50% retracement of its gains from 
July 24 through August 22, before the recent sell-off.  It has 
not only rebounded from that level after testing it on 5 
successive sessions, but the rally of the last two days  leading 
up to today's close of 8602.61, also surpassed the 38.2% 
retracement level and the index looks headed toward the 50-dma of 
8624.20.  The Nasdaq Composite, which finished the day up 15.49 
to close at 1320.09, is headed toward its 50-dma of 1330.85.  The 
NDX is also headed toward this level, with a close of 947.72, 
just 15 points away from its 50-dma.  The last time all three 
crossed this level at the same time was on August 19.  It 
appeared as though the foundation for a rally had been laid, much 
the way the same action had led us out of the autumn 1998 lows.  
The Dow traded over 9000, the Nasdaq made it over 1400 and it 
appeared as though the recovery was underway.  Of course, it 
didn't last.  With the 9/11 anniversary behind us, maybe this 
time a crossing of the 50-dmas by all three can bring us a little 
further.

Remember however, that we still need some good news from the 
techs for a real rally to take place.  The bullish percentages of 
the NDX and Nasdaq Composite remain in the 30s and have come off 
their highs significantly.  I am looking for a turnaround in 
these percentages before a rally can maintain itself.  That 
doesn't mean we won't have a big run after 9/11 passes and 
investors start pumping money back into the market, but for a 
sustained rally we will need to see an increase in IT spending to 
lift the techs.  Until that happens, we could be in for some 
extremely volatile trading.  The Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) 
has fallen to 36.96, but even though this is much lower than the 
readings in the high 50's we saw in July, it is still on the high 
side and predicting some movement in the near future. Although 
when compared to past Septembers, I get the feeling it is not 
high enough, especially given the competing forces playing tug of 
war right now. When I think about the rally that looks as though 
it is about to take place, I can't help but remember the saying, 
"The bigger they are, the harder they fall."


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10679
52-week Low :  7702
Current     :  8602

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8541
 50-dma: 8624
200-dma: 9658

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1226
52-week Low :  797
Current     :  909

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  904
 50-dma:  906
200-dma: 1057

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1782
52-week Low :  892
Current     :  947

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  932
 50-dma:  962
200-dma: 1300


-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X): The SOX rallied through 
resistance at 300 today, but couldn't hold up along with the rest 
of the market, settling back at 298 by the end of the day.   
Ongoing tech warnings and a lowering of expectations by 
forecasting firm IDC from 4.7% to 1.1% for 2002 in the sector 
didn't help.  I expect the SOX to make it back into the low 300s 
tomorrow on a broad market rally and to possibly test resistance 
at 310 as well.  However, until the IT spending environment 
improves, it is hard to believe we will not re-test last 
Thursday's 52-week low of 275 at least one more time.

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 275
Current     : 288

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 295
 50-dma: 334
200-dma: 482


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX is on the high side.  However, given the action of recent 
Septembers, combined with the threat of war, a rally that looks 
like it is about to take place, and the ongoing earnings warnings 
in the tech sector, I keep wondering if it is high enough to 
account for the possibility of extreme movement in the near 
future. Don't be too anxious to sell those straddles if 
volatility starts coming in after tomorrow, if there are no 
attacks.  There are still many competing factors, which will take 
some time to shake out.  Expect the VIX to drop tomorrow on a 
market rally, but don't get too confident.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 36.96 -1.44
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 53.07 -2.40

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.68        502,264       339,165
Equity Only    0.57        338,636       193,184
OEX            1.26         17,243        21,791
QQQ            2.56         60,804        15,570

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          43      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    36      + 0     Bull Correction
DOW           50      + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       51      + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       46      + 1     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  0.94
10-Day Arms Index  1.45
21-Day Arms Index  1.31
55-Day Arms Index  1.30

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1508          1200
NASDAQ     1691          1493

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         31              25
NASDAQ       18              66

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,363
NASDAQ   1,433


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/03/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials added 6,000 contracts to the long side, while 
reducing shorts by only 500, in what appears to be a stockpiling 
in anticipation of extreme movement next week. Small traders 
increased both long contracts and short, adding 5,000 to the long 
side and 8,000 to the short side.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
08/13/02      427,618   475,536   (47,918)   (5.3%)
08/20/02      422,100   469,556   (47,456)   (5.3%)
08/27/02      425,982   469,087   (43,105)   (4.8%)
09/03/02      431,755   468,529   (36,774)   (4.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/13/02      155,040    66,546    88,494     39.9%
08/20/02      156,974    69,071    87,903     38.9%
08/27/02      153,152    72,408    80,744     35.8%
09/03/02      158,262    80,130    78,132     32.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Commercials added 2600 short contracts and only 1400 longs, while 
small traders got longer, adding 1,000 longs and reducing short 
positions by 300.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
08/13/02       42,303     50,354    (8,051) ( 8.7%)
08/20/02       41,876     49,461    (7,585) ( 8.3%)
08/27/02       45,354     50,634    (5,280) ( 5.5%)
09/03/02       46,712     53,287    (6,575) ( 6.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/13/02       12,797     8,933     3,864    17.8%
08/20/02       11,321     7,980     3,341    17.3%
08/27/02       10,156     8,040     2,116    11.6%
09/03/02       11,150     7,720     3,430    18.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials reduced short positions slightly, reducing risk 
heading into next week, while small traders reduced both sides by 
about 500 contracts. 


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/13/02       22,837    13,833    9,004      24.6%
08/20/02       21,160    15,349    5,811      15.9%
08/27/02       21,023    14,328    6,695      18.9%
09/03/02       21,161    13,792    7,369      21.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/13/02        5,050     8,349    (3,299)   (24.6%)
08/20/02        6,216     8,163    (1,947)   (13.5%)
08/27/02        6,825     8,438    (1,613)   (10.6%)
09/03/02        6,395     7,966    (1,571)   (10.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------


===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((new BEARISH non-tech play))
===============

Allergan Inc - AGN - cls: 55.16 chg: -1.28 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Allergan, Inc., with headquarters in Irvine, California, is a 
technology-driven, global health care company providing eye care
and specialty pharmaceutical products worldwide. Allergan 
develops and commercializes products in the eye care, 
neuromodulator and skin care markets that deliver value to our 
customers, satisfy unmet medical needs, and improve patients' 
lives. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Yesterday, the U.S Food and Drug watchdogs deemed that Allergan's 
Botox Cosmetic anti wrinkle injection ads were misleading.  AGN 
received a letter by the FDA, which stated that Allergan must 
stop advertising Botox.  In response, Allergan has countered by 
articulating that it will not pull its ads.  The company has 10 
days to provide adequate rebuttal to the cease and desist order.  
The ads are said to be misleading, as they confuse patients about 
the longevity of the treatment results.  Also, the FDA believes 
the company web site for physicians has created confusion about 
the dilution of the Botox solution. 

Even though Allergan has vowed to fight the FDA order, investors 
have already indicated that they do not think the company can 
win.  Over the last two days the stock has found weakness, as 
bulls back away from more possible bad news.  The stock broke 
horizontal support at $55.85 in today's trading.  Further, the 
daily Stochastics have fallen into the oversold region, and the 
daily MACD seems to be failing in the lower region.  The stock 
has yet to break thru support on the P&F chart, but a move below 
$54.00 could indicate a further breakdown.  Technical bears are 
definitely watching this stock closely, as it is teetering on 
potential heavy selling.  

The newsletter will enter a paper short position in AGN if the 
stock moves below our trigger at $54.69.  The initial profit 
target will be at $50.06, with a stop just above the high three 
days ago at $57.76.  If everything works out as planned, Allergan 
will need Botox to iron out its own wrinkles.     

For Annotated Chart: Click Here
Chart of: AGN, Daily.



Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <-- See text 
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             10/24/02 (confirmed)
 






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Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 09-10-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  CTSH, LLL
  Bearish Play Updates:  SBC

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     AGN, DUK
  Bullish Play Updates:  AGY, CLX, QQQ
  Bearish Play Updates:  CB
  Closed Bearish Plays:  BSC

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     CA, SCH
  Bullish Play Updates:  CPWR, SMH

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - cls: 62.81 chg: -0.06 stop: 58.54

CTSH experienced some consolidation of its recent gains on 
Tuesday.  Shares traded an Inside Day and finished with a small 
loss.  In the news today, Adams Harkness reiterated their "Buy" 
rating on CTSH.  This was countered by Legg Mason, who downgraded 
the stock from "Buy" to "Hold."  The overall reaction to these 
brokerage comments was somewhat muted.  Going forward, we'll be 
watching for shares to move above the relative high of $64.17 and 
clear psychological resistance at $65.00.  Aggressive traders can 
look for long entries on a move above today's high of $63.55.

Picked on September 9th at $61.40 
Results since picked:       +1.41
Earnings Date            07/15/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

L-3 Comm. - LLL - close: 54.95 change: +0.11 stop: 52.38 *new*

L-3 announced today that it had been awarded an $8 million order 
to modify training devices for Navy aircraft.  That's a 
relatively small contract, but Wall Street's reaction was 
initially positive.  LLL tagged a new relative high this morning 
before pulling back to finish with a small gain.  In a bullish 
development, this move came on the largest volume in over a 
month.  However, shares have risen more than 10% over the past 
week and may be due for some short-term consolidation.  Thus, we 
would not recommend entering new positions at current levels.  
Traders looking to go long could instead wait for a pullback to 
the $54.50 level.  In an attempt to minimize our downside risk, 
we've raised our stop to $52.38.  This will force LLL to trade 
below the 200-dma at $52.44 and Monday's low of $52.40.  Slightly 
more aggressive traders may want to use a stop just under $52.00.

Picked on September 9th at $53.25 
Results since picked:       +1.70
Earnings Date            07/16/02 (confirmed) 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

SBC Comm. - SBC - cls: 24.88 chg: +0.34 stop: 25.06 

Last week SBC came pretty close to reaching our profit-target at 
$22.26.  The stock has since firmed up and appears to have broken 
the recent downtrend.  This action has mirrored a similar rebound 
in the IXTCX combined telecom index.  Shares led the Dow Jones 
higher today with a 1.3% gain and closed just below $25.00.  
However, the bulls could not muster a breakout above this level 
of psychological resistance, and our stop remained un-violated.  
The uptrending stochastics indicate that SBC may see more buying 
in the near-term.  If turns out to be the case, our stop-loss 
should protect a gain of 8.8%.  A broader market decline could 
lead to a rollover from current levels, but we not recommend new 
short entries until the technical picture becomes more negative.

Picked on August 21st at $27.49 
Results since picked:     +2.61
Earnings Date          07/23/02 (confirmed)


 



==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Allergan Inc - AGN - cls: 55.16 chg: -1.28 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Allergan, Inc., with headquarters in Irvine, California, is a 
technology-driven, global health care company providing eye care
and specialty pharmaceutical products worldwide. Allergan 
develops and commercializes products in the eye care, 
neuromodulator and skin care markets that deliver value to our 
customers, satisfy unmet medical needs, and improve patients' 
lives.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Yesterday, the U.S Food and Drug watchdogs deemed that Allergan's 
Botox Cosmetic anti wrinkle injection ads were misleading.  AGN 
received a letter by the FDA, which stated that Allergan must 
stop advertising Botox.  In response, Allergan has countered by 
articulating that it will not pull its ads.  The company has 10 
days to provide adequate rebuttal to the cease and desist order.  
The ads are said to be misleading, as they confuse patients about 
the longevity of the treatment results.  Also, the FDA believes 
the company web site for physicians has created confusion about 
the dilution of the Botox solution. 

Even though Allergan has vowed to fight the FDA order, investors 
have already indicated that they do not think the company can 
win.  Over the last two days the stock has found weakness, as 
bulls back away from more possible bad news.  The stock broke 
horizontal support at $55.85 in today's trading.  Further, the 
daily Stochastics have fallen into the oversold region, and the 
daily MACD seems to be failing in the lower region.  The stock 
has yet to break thru support on the P&F chart, but a move below 
$54.00 could indicate a further breakdown.  Technical bears are 
definitely watching this stock closely, as it is teetering on 
potential heavy selling.  

The newsletter will enter a paper short position in AGN if the 
stock moves below our trigger at $54.69.  The initial profit 
target will be at $50.06, with a stop just above the high three 
days ago at $57.76.  If everything works out as planned, Allergan 
will need Botox to iron out its own wrinkles.     

For Annotated Chart: Click Here
Chart of: AGN, Daily.



Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <-- See text 
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             10/24/02 (confirmed)
 

 

--- 

Duke Energy - DUK - close: 24.09 change: -1.07 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Duke Energy is a diversified multinational energy company with an 
integrated network of energy assets and expertise. The company 
manages a dynamic portfolio of natural gas and electric supply, 
delivery and trading businesses -- meeting the energy needs of 
customers throughout North America and in key markets around the 
world (source: American Stock Exchange)

Why We Like It:
Leading the broader market higher from its July lows was the 
Utility index.  From it's all-time low on July 24th to the 
relative high five weeks later, the UTY.X exploded for a 35% 
gain.  This rally appears to have simply been the result of 
oversold conditions rather than positive sector news.  The index 
has been retracing these gains for the past two weeks and appears 
to be picking up bearish head of steam.  Moving in tandem with 
the utility group, DUK is also looking top-heavy.  Last week the 
stock repeatedly bumped its head against the descending 50-dma 
($25.65), only to fall below psychological support at $25.00.  
Shares experienced heavy selling today and spiked under 
intermediate-term support at $24.00.  A full-blown breakdown 
below this level could bring more bears out of the woodwork.  
Although the daily stochastics are already pinned at oversold, 
the declining MACD and rising volume are signs that DUK will 
continue lower in the near-term.  By entering this short play on 
a move below $23.75, we're hoping to ride DUK down to the $20.00 
region.  Our stop (if triggered) will be located at $25.67, just 
over the 50-dma.  More conservative traders may want to use a 
stop slightly above $25.00.

For annotated chart: click here
Chart of: DUK, daily.



Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings                  10/15/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Argosy Gaming Co. - AGY - cls: 27.88 chg: +0.23 stop: 26.58 *new*

Without any innovative news surfacing on AGY today, the stock 
displayed poor relative strength compared to the broader market.  
However, AGY has stayed above the 50-dma, with the daily 
Stochastics nesting mid-range.  The newsletter has elected to 
move our stop DOWN a few cents, as we feel that the current stop 
is on the wrong side of support.  Our new stop loss will be just 
below the low four days ago at $26.58.  AGY did not have any 
noteworthy news surface today.  

Picked on September 6th at 28.40
Results since picked:      -0.52
Earnings Date           07/23/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Clorox Corp - CLX - close: 43.30 change: +0.14 stop: *text*

Just about there!  Our trigger at $43.49 has not yet been 
breached, though with a potential emotional rally looming, the 
position could be activated in the new few sessions.  After 
recently falling to bottom of the current consolidation range, 
CLX staged a rebound rally yesterday, and the stock is now 
testing the top of the range again.  Daily Stochastics are 
encouraging for bulls, as they have just entered the overbought 
region.  The newsletter is looking for a move above current shelf 
resistance at $43.50 for a possible breakout. Without any fresh 
media buzz on CLX today, the move may be attributed to the 
broader market and defensive buying prior to the 9/11 anniversary 
tomorrow.        

Picked on September xth at xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date           08/07/02 (confirmed)




---

NASDAQ 100 Shares - QQQ - close: 23.65 change: +0.57 stop: 21.90

Triggered yesterday at $23.23, our position in the QQQ's was 
activated as the tracking stock ascended with emotional buying 
prior to the 9/11 anniversary.  Bulls would like to see a move 
above the 50-dma at $23.95 to encourage a move to our profit 
target at $26.18.  The newsletter will not move our stop up at 
this time, as we are concerned that if some terrorist activity 
appears, the market could quickly drop, then rebound and stop us 
out of this play.  Overall, market fundamentals do not point 
towards a sustained rally at this point, however, we feel that 
emotional buyers could push the market higher if tomorrow passes 
without much fanfare.     

Picked on September 9th at $23.23 
Results since picked:       +0.42
Earnings Date                  NA




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Chubb Corporations - CB - cls: 61.59 chg: +0.23 stop: 62.11 

With no fresh buzz surfacing on Chubb today, the stock seems to 
be a standstill with the anniversary of September 11th tomorrow.  
The stock has not yet broken descending resistance and the 50-
dma.  However, bears are slightly worried that buyers could 
appear in the insurance sector after 9/11 if the date passes 
without any terrorist activity.  Further, the daily Stochastics 
have tuned up from the oversold region and could indicate looming 
technical buyers.  The newsletter is not going to close this play 
just yet, however, we will leave our stop at $62.11 in an attempt 
to protect slight paper gains.  Forceful investors could hold out 
for a move above the 50-dma to close their short positions, 
though more aggressive stops entail elevated risk.

Picked on August 28th at $62.49
Results since picked:     +0.90
Earnings Date          07/29/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Bear, Stearns - BSC - close: 62.25 change: -0.07 stop: *text*

Our position in Bear Stearns was never triggered, as the stock in 
no way fell beneath our trigger at $59.64.  Over the last few 
days, the broader market has witnessed low volume strength, 
pushing BSC away from our trigger.  Further, bulls' nudged 
financials higher yesterday on news that Citigroup (NYSE:C) was 
to receive a new CEO.  Because of the recent positive move, we 
have decided to close this play before it is ever triggered.  
Bulls are encouraged with the daily Stochastics turning up from 
the oversold region, and a potential hold of the 0 line by the 
MACD.  Until the brokerage sector and economy show more of their 
hands, new short positions in BSC are not recommended above the 
200-dma.     

Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <--- See text
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             06/19/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  ----------------- 

Computer Associates - CA - cls: 12.06 chg: +0.72 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Computer Associates International, Inc. delivers The Software 
That Manages eBusiness. CA's world-class solutions address all 
aspects of eBusiness management through industry-leading brands: 
Unicenter for infrastructure management, eTrust for security 
management, BrightStor for storage management, CleverPath for 
portal and business intelligence, AllFusion for application life 
cycle management, Advantage for data management and application 
development, and Jasmine for object-oriented database technology. 
Founded in 1976, CA serves organizations in more than 100 
countries, including 99 percent of the Fortune 500 companies.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
In the last three trading days the GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) 
has sneaked its way above the 50-dma.  The index has recently 
found strength, as the daily Stochastics have turned up from the 
oversold region, and the MACD attempts to cross above the 0 line.  
Further, the index received help in the last few days, as it 
seems unlikely that the U.S. Congress will pass a corporate tax 
legislation bill, which imposes higher export taxes.

Computer Associates seems poised to move with the GSO.X in a 
possible uphill move.  The stock has recently found strength on 
the ascending support line, attempting to gain ground.  The daily 
Stochastics have turning higher and could have their sites set on 
the overbought region.  In addition, the daily MACD has been 
moving along the 0 line, and seems to be looking higher.  The 
Point and Figure chart displays a three-box reversal, with 
initial resistance for the stock at $14.00.  The descending 
resistance trend line on the P&F chart is far overhead at $18.00.  
Bulls would like to see a move above $12.50 for a potential run 
at the $15.00 area.  

The newsletter will put a trigger on CA just one cent above 
today's high, at $12.09.  If activated, the initial stop for this 
position will be at $10.84.  However, if bulls to grab hold of 
CA, long traders can expect resistance in the $12.94-$13.00 
region before a run higher.  A move above $13.00 would also 
signal a breach of the most recent channel and could bring 
technical bulls off the fence.  Our initial profit target will be 
at $13.99, just below resistance on the 60-minute chart.

For Annotated Chart: Click Here
Chart of: CA, Daily.



Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <--- See text 
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             07/22/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Charles Schwab - SCH - close: 10.08 change: +0.28 stop: *text*

Company Description:
The Charles Schwab Corporation, through Charles Schwab & Co., 
Inc. (member SIPC/NYSE), U.S. Trust Corporation, CyberTrader, 
Inc. (member SIPC/NASD) and its other operating subsidiaries, is 
one of the nation's largest financial services firms serving 8.0 
million active accounts with $761 billion in client assets 
through 428 domestic offices, four regional client telephone 
service centers and automated telephonic and online channels. 
(source: company press release)


Why We Like It:
The past few years haven't been too kind to shareholders of SCH.  
The stock traded near the $40.00 level in late-2000, only to get 
solidly whacked as the tech bubble exploded.  Shares trended 
steadily lower as day-traders threw in the towel (voluntarily or 
otherwise) and commission revenue dried up.  More recently, 
negativity in the overall brokerage sector sent SCH tumbling to 
multi-year lows.  Schwab has struggled to differentiate itself 
from scandal-plagued investment bankers such as Merrill Lynch, 
resulting in the humorous "time for pickin'...time for buyin'" ad 
campaign.  The news front has been relatively quiet for the 
company, so it's been somewhat surprising to see the stock rally 
off its August lows near $8.00.

"Time for buying" has faired as the slogan for this stock, which 
is now trading back above $10.00 for the first time in seven 
weeks.  Today's breakout above that level of psychological 
resistance is a positive technical development that could lead to 
another round of short-covering.  Bulls can also be encouraged by 
the fact that volume has been gradually rising during the recent 
uptrend.  The rising MACD and daily stochastics are additional 
signs that SCH has more upside potential.  Specifically, we're 
going to target a move to our profit-target at $11.98.  This 
would be a move of roughly 16% from our entry point.  Those who 
are more optimistic could look for a rally to the 200-dma at 
$12.51.  In order to confirm bullish sincerity, we'll wait to 
enter this play until SCH trades above today's high of $10.28.  
If we're triggered our stop will be set at $9.44, slightly below 
the declining 50-dma.  More cautious types could use a stop just 
under today's low of $9.85.  On a sector-related note, the XBD.X 
broker/dealer index is also displaying bullish oscillators and 
looks like it may retest the August highs near 430.  Such a rally 
would help to propel SCH towards our profit-target.

Picked on September xth at $xx.xx <- see text 
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            10/15/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Compuware Corp - CPWR - close: 4.07 change: +0.14 stop: *text*

The past two sessions have seen shares of CPWR move in a narrow 
range near the $4.00 mark.  The company announced some new 
software development products today, but this news wasn't enough 
to send the stock above yesterday's high of $4.10.  Bulls, 
however, can be pleased with the fact that CPWR finished with a 
3.5% gain and outperformed both the NASDAQ and GSO.X software 
index.  In light of this relative strength, we're going to lower 
our trigger point to $4.11.  This will allow us to capture a 
bounce to the $4.75 region.  Our profit target will be set at 
$4.81, just under the July high.  Remember that we'll use a stop 
at $3.68 if this play is activated.

Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <--- see text 
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             10/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Semiconductor HOLDRS - SMH - cls: 24.17 chg: +0.85 stop: 21.98

What a difference a day makes.  On Monday morning, shares of the 
SMH sank with the overall chip sector and came within just two 
cents of our stop-loss.  The stock then rebounded with the 
broader market and finished the session with only a small loss.  
Today's action saw the SMH break above Friday's high and post a 
3.6% gain.  That's a pretty good move, considering the NASDAQ 
only posted a 15-point gain.  SMH moved higher in tandem with the 
semiconductor index (SOX.X), which was the best performing group 
on Tuesday.  This sector strength bodes well for our play.  We're 
also pleased with the stock's technical picture.  The MACD is 
curling higher, while daily stochastics are rising from oversold 
levels.   The next obstacle for the bulls will be to push shares 
above psychological resistance at $25.00.  Short-term traders who 
entered this play at our original entry point may want to 
consider taking gains off the table if the SMH rolls over from 
this level.  Although we're keeping our stop set at $21.98, those 
who are more risk-averse could use a stop just below the $23.00
mark.

Picked on September 6th at $23.38 
Results since picked:       +0.79
Earnings Date                 N/A
 




=================
  Trading Ideas
=================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UTX     United Technologies Corp   61.21     +2.08
OVER    Overture Services          21.50     +0.66
ECTX    Ectel Ltd.                 10.00     +0.65
DJ      Dow Jones & Co.            43.60     +0.69
MHK     Mohawk Industries Inc.     53.23     +1.41
XTO     Xto Energy Inc.            20.95     +0.70

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name              Close     Change 

MSO     Martha Stewart Omnimedia   9.05     +1.30
NVDA    Nvidia Corporation        10.57     +1.32
EMMS    Emmis Communication       17.50     +2.03
IBIS    Ibis Technology            5.30     +1.08
UTHR    United Therapeutics       15.93     +1.19

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ITMN    Intermune                  30.68     +1.77
YELL    Yellow Corporation         27.18     +1.19
FRX     Forrest Laboratories       76.19     +3.17
ROAD    Roadway Express Inc.       30.85     +1.65
ASCA    Ameristar Casinos          20.66     +2.72
BSTE    Biosite Inc.               25.77     +5.22

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

DCOM    Dime Community Bancshare   23.06     -1.47
MYG     Maytag Corp.               29.68     -1.51
JILL    J. Jill Group Inc.         21.57     -2.64
WM      Washington Mutual Inc.     36.90     -1.45

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

HPG     Heritage Propane Partners  27.10     -0.30
ZMH     Zimmer Holdings            37.30     -1.00




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