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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 09/13/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-13-2002
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      The Economic Parade of Bulls and Bears 
Play-of-the-Day:  Sputtering Engines
Watch List:       AL, AVY, BRCD, FDX, MU, NXTL, SPC, and lots more!
Market Sentiment: Not So Fast


===========
Market Wrap
===========

The Economic Parade of Bulls and Bears 

Today's trading witnessed mediocre selling as the Dow lost -66.72
points to close at 8,312.69 prior to the weekend.  The Nasdaq 
gained +11.72 points to finish the session at 1,291.40.  NYSE 
advancers outpaced decliners 1523 to 1167, while Nasdaq winners 
triumphed losers 1743 to 1401.  Volume on both exchanges traded 
fairly light with 1.4 billion shares exchanging hands on the 
NYSE, and 1.2 billion moving on the Nasdaq.  

In news today, the Honeywell (NYSE:HON) added weight to the Dow, 
as the company announced it was cutting profit projections for 
the quarter and full year.  Honeywell forecasted that third-
quarter earnings (excluding one-time items) at $2.05 per share, 
down from the expected $2.27.  The lagging consumer aerospace 
market stifled earnings for the company, which is also dealing 
with asbestos liabilities.

Tyco (NYSE:TYC) has come under fire again, as the company is 
facing allegations that executives potentially acted illegally in 
the Flag Telecom and TyCom IPOs.  New York prosecutors have 
accused Former CEO Dennis Kozlowski and ex-CFO Mark Swartz of 
tampering with the 2000 IPO of TyCom, where they made hundreds of 
millions of dollars.  After the IPO, TyCom's stock price 
plummeted, which led to Tyco bringing the failing telecom back 
under its wing in late 2001.  Further, the lost money was then 
booked as nonrecurring charges, which are generally overlooked 
when evaluating profit performance.  Additionally, it is rumored 
that TYC is being questioned as to whether Kozlowski pressured 
Merrill Lynch into hiring a research analyst of his favor.  
Evidence is surfacing that Merrill reshuffled its analysts to 
make room for Phua Young, who was allegedly hand picked by 
Kozlowski.  

Disney (NYSE:DIS) attempted to revive its reputation with 
analysts and institutional investors during a New York lunch 
meeting today.  The company addressed reviving the ABC network, 
corporate governance, and theme park attendance.  Disney is 
hoping to woo the street into a new relationship, as the stock 
has suffered over the last few years and is currently trading at 
5-year lows.  Disney closed at $15.50, unchanged on the day.        

J.D Edwards (Nasdaq:JDEC) tumbled on Friday after the company 
announced that more than $6 million dollars of its third quarter 
revenue stemmed from employee vacation accruals and decreases in 
allowances for problem accounts.  JDEC closed down -14.94% at 
$11.44.  

Economic News

Today's PPI for finished goods depicted no alteration in August, 
falling short of analyst expectations.  Producer prices fell by 
0.1%, excluding food and energy.  However, prices for 
intermediate goods (often used as a leading indicator for 
consumer inflation) rose by 0.4%, much stronger than originally 
predicted.  In addition, core crude prices rose 0.4% as well.  As 
a result, overall core prices for intermediate goods and core 
crude are up significantly from the start of 2002.  The long-term 
effects could be that inflationary pressure might begin to mount 
for finished products, though recovery still remains fragile. 
Bottom line, the slow recovery is yet to translate into any 
immediate activity by the Fed at the September 24th meeting.  

According to the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce, 
retail sales grew 0.8% in August, showing gains for the third 
month in a row.  Autos elevated 0.4, Auto Ex Gas increased 0.5, 
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers climbed 1.9, Furniture and Home 
Furnishing gained 1.7, and Building Material Dealers lofted 0.5.  
Gasoline Stations fell -0.8, Clothing and Accessory Stores 
dropped -0.3, and Electronics and Appliance Stores dipped -0.4.  
Long story short, consumers are taking advantage of what they 
perceive to be "once in a lifetime" discounting, as exemplified 
in outstanding auto sales.  The current strength in consumer 
spending will support the growth number in this quarter's GDP.  
However, analysts are expecting consumer sales to slow as 0% 
financing disappears, and mortgage interest rates begin to rise.  
Further, economists are hoping that consumers will continue to 
support the current lackluster economy until businesses are ready 
to shoulder more of the load. 

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey reported 
that consumer sentiment fell to 86.2 in September from 87.6 in 
August.  Of importance, the expectations component of the survey 
stumbled slightly to 80.  Though today's numbers aren't exactly 
sterling, they do depict that consumer sentiment is stabilizing.  
Economists are now questioning whether consumers will continue to 
add a piece of the puzzle to economic growth.  The problem facing 
the U.S. economy is that businesses have yet to increase 
spending, squeezing as much out of current productivity as they 
can.  Labor markets remain weak, while consumer debt remains 
high.  Thus, low interest rates and low inflation are supporting 
the current numbers.  I would like to point out the survey only 
comprises 250 consumers... Political pollsters use a much larger 
sample population to gain accurate results.  Thus, the survey 
takes into account only 5 people's perspective per state.

Although not exactly fresh news, today's ECRI Leading Indicator 
Report came in lower at 120.5 versus 120.7 in August. The decline 
may be attributed to a rise in jobless claims and a general 
decline in financial components. This report signals that the 
economic recovery is not progressing as expected. Because the 
growth rate has fallen to 1.3%, recovery is currently threatened. 
Bond yields continue to mull around 40-year lows, eroding equity 
expectations for the near future. Economists are concerned with 
the housing market, as it is one of the only masts of economic 
support. If inflationary pressures surface and interest rates 
ascend above 7%, the real estate market could see weakness, thus 
stifling labor wages from the sector. 

The Week In Review

This week was an emotional journey, as American's revisited the 
painful anniversary of September 11th.  Clearly, this event 
dominated the news of the week.  Patriots were on further guard, 
as the U.S. government elevated our defense alert to "orange" 
status.  With a sigh of relief, American's were happy to end the 
week without any terrorist events.  The 9/11 anniversary was 
highlighted with many solemn ceremonies, which will hopefully 
help many add closure to what has been an incredibly difficult 
year.

Yesterday, President Bush petitioned the United Nations for 
support in reinstating weapons inspections.  His speech implied 
that Iraq has been attempting to manufacture both nuclear and 
biological weapons of mass destruction.  

On Thursday, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan addressed Congress, 
stating that the Government needs to help the economy by putting 
tighter restraints on Government spending.  

Martha Stewart found additional woes during the week, as the 
House Energy Committee turned over her high profile case to the 
Justice Department.  Stewart's attorneys said she would not 
testify to the house committee about her controversial sale of 
ImClone (Nasdaq:IMCL) stock.

On Wednesday, the MBA Mortgage Applications survey leaped to 
ANOTHER all time high over the prior week, reporting 1238.2 new 
applications versus 1059.5.  This was the first time the survey 
has ever been above 1200, with large gains in both the purchase 
and REFI applications.  The Purchase Index rose to 401.6 from 
359.7, and the REFI Index jumped to 6104.3 from 5129.6.  This 
week's numbers suggest that not much is putting the breaks on the 
housing market.  Further, the numbers indicate that housing 
demand will remain strong over the next few months with interest 
rates' touching record lows just above 6%.  It is estimated that 
homeowners will refinance over $1 trillion dollars worth of 
mortgages, cashing out a hefty $138 billion dollars.  
Importantly, the demand for purchasing applications remains 
strong, indicating that prospective homebuyers have no aversion 
to paying premiums in exaggerated markets.  The simplest 
conclusion is that investors are staying away from equity markets 
and continuing to put their greenbacks into real estate.  
However, analysts still conclude that if and when interest rates 
rise above 7%, the housing and refinance markets could quickly 
taper off.  Further, this week also reported that foreclosures 
are at all time highs.

Putting It All In Perspective

Investors had originally anticipated an emotional relief rally 
after the passing of 9/11.  However, once the anniversary passed, 
war fears, high oil prices, and the continuing lackluster economy 
seemed to prevail, dragging the Dow down 1.45% for the week.  The 
Dow Jones gives the impression of looming weakness on the daily 
chart, as the index failed to move above the 50-dma three days 
ago.  Further, the daily Stochastics are attempting to drop into 
the oversold region, and the MACD is trending lower beneath the 0 
line.  Bears are additionally encouraged with a breach of 
ascending support on the point and figure chart.  The current New 
York Composite ($NYA) point and figure chart could also be a 
problem for bulls, as the chart depicts a potential pending 
triple bottom breakdown.  However, until the NYA drops below 475, 
the chart is bull-confirmed.  We look at the NYA in relationship 
to the Dow, as it is a good indicator of what institutions are 
watching.  A break of the 475 region would create a triple bottom 
breakdown, potentially bringing technical bears off the fence.      

Chart of: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Daily.


   
Chart of: NYSE Composite Index, P&F.



Even with the sell off yesterday, crude futures continue to 
ascend with supply side concerns and Iraq worries.  Oil and Gas 
inventories on Wednesday were slightly mixed from the EIA and API 
reports.  The EIA reported that crude inventories decreased from 
298.5 to 293.2, distillate inventories increased to 133.6 from 
129.6, and gasoline stocks amplified to 0.3 from -1.5.  The API 
showed Crude inventories staying mostly flat at 298.4 from 298.9, 
distillate inventories leaping to -0.5 from -6.3, and gasoline 
inventories moving from -1.4 to 0.1.  Both reports are bearish 
for distillate and gasoline stocks, though slightly bullish on 
crude.  The drop in crude inventories may be attributed to the 
current decline of imports, though capacity utilization of 
refineries averaged 15.4 million barrels per day.  The import 
decrease may have been caused by stormy weather in the Gulf, 
which has hindered transportation of inventories.  The current 
"war premium" per barrel is figured to be in the $8.00 area, with 
OPEC's current range for "acceptable" oil prices between $22-
$28.00.  The basket price for OPEC oil is $26.00 per barrel.  
Analysts concur that during the September 19th meeting, OPEC will 
validate the current over-production of 2-million barrels per 
day, by increasing quotas to match existing production.  Gasoline 
prices are expected to remain flat, while distillate prices 
should gain momentum as the heating season ensues.  Oil investors 
continue to stay bullish on futures, as crude certainly is not 
out of the woods yet.  Crude could continue to trade in the upper 
portion of its range until tensions with Iraq are eased.

Chart of: Light, Sweet Crude, Daily.



Bonds found buying today, as Treasury yields faded during the 
session.  The 13-week Treasury yield dropped -0.02 to close at 
1.650%, while the 5-year yield descended -0.69 to 2.966%.  The 
10-year yield faded -0.67 to 3.90%, which incidentally still 
remains near 40-year lows.  Further, the 30-year yield dipped 
-0.51 to finishing the session at 4.765%.  The chart below 
displays the monthly picture for the 30-year yield and indicates 
that the 30-year note could be attempting to test lows.  The 
picture displayed is rather grim, as it means that investors 
would rather accept 4.765% return on their money than take a 
chance on the stock market.  The monthly Stochastics are just 
entering the oversold region, and could cause technical equity 
bulls to break a sweat.  

Chart of: 30-year Treasury, Monthly.



In a nut shell the current market environment continues to cause 
concern for investors.  Economic conditions seem to be improving 
slightly, but the lackluster labor market and stumbling consumer 
sentiment are causing the broader markets to drag their feet.  As 
we have mentioned before, September is historically one of the 
most bearish months for the stock market.  Keep in mind though, 
October is a "bear killer", and according to the Stock Traders 
Almanac, the month has turned the tide on nine post-WWII bear 
markets.  So...as we stand, perhaps economic conditions do not 
support buying just quite yet.  However, should the economy begin 
to show signs of strength, bulls could begin to surface in the 
next few months.  In the short term, traders will want to keep an 
eye on the 30-year note, watching for a break down below relative 
lows at 4.662%.  Also, the Dow continues to trade in a descending 
trend, which until broken, might maintain a bearish frame of mind 
for traders.  Over the last few days we have heard traders make 
comments about wanting to "buy this market", but are too 
skeptical that news driven events could open the floodgates for 
further selling.  With this in mind, investors should keep tight 
stops on all positions both long and short, while watching key 
trend lines in the broader markets.  If no negative events occur 
over the weekend, Monday could see a rally, though be careful as 
a sell off during the week could possible ensue.  Trade smart 
with decisions based on technical reasoning, not emotions.  The 
one thing that hinders all traders is having an emotional 
opinion.  Fundamentals and technical analysis are our opinions, 
not feelings.  Be patient and watch for the volume!

Editor
Mark Whistler

mwhistler@PremierInvestor.net


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH)
=========================
(( new non-tech short ))

Cummins Inc - CUM - close: 27.97 change: -0.65 stop: *text*

Company Description:
A global power leader, Cummins Inc. is a corporation of 
complementary business units that design, manufacture, distribute 
and service electrical power generation systems, engines and 
related technologies, including fuel systems, controls, air 
handling, filtration and emissions solutions. (source: company 
press release)

Why We Like It:
Fundamentally speaking, there haven't been a whole lot of recent 
developments for Cummins.  On the surface, the July earnings 
report gave investors something to cheer about.  The company 
reported a quarterly profit of 31 cents/shares.  This was eleven 
cents better than the consensus estimates.  This positive news, 
however, was tempered with some bearish comments.  Cummins CEO 
Tim Solso stated that demand remains uncertain in the U.S. 
market, and a rebound in the power-generation market wasn't 
expected until sometime in 2003.  The "what have you done for me 
lately" crowd on Wall Street may have seen this fuzzy outlook as 
a reason not to own the stock.  From a broader macroeconomic 
standpoint, continued worries about the sustainability of the 
latest economic upturn have taken their toll on capital goods 
stocks such as CUM.

Turning our attention to the technical picture, CUM is flirting 
with a breakdown.  The stock recently rolled from its 50-dma 
($30.21) and is within striking distance of 52-week lows.  The 
falling daily stochastics and recent pattern of relative weakness 
are indications that the bulls may not be able to hold current 
levels.  P-n-f enthusiasts will also notice that CUM recently 
produced a double-bottom sell signal.  In light of this technical 
weakness, we believe a breakdown could lead to an eventual test 
of the $22.00 level.  Shorter-term traders could look for a move 
to psychological support at $25.00.  In order to ensure that we 
don't enter this hypothetical trade until CUM is trading below 
all levels of historical support, we're placing an entry trigger 
at $26.99.  If this play is activated we'll use a stop at $29.16 
just above Thursday's high.  More aggressive traders could use a 
stop slightly above the falling 50-dma at $30.21.  

For annotated chart: click here
Chart of: CUM, daily.



Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <-- See text 
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             10/10/02 (unconfirmed)
 





==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Alcan Inc - AL - close: 25.69 change: -0.56

WHAT TO WATCH: Much like the IT sector, Aluminum-related stocks 
have recently taken a beating over worries of excess inventories 
and slowing demand.  Although AL has yet to experience a full-
blown breakdown, it may only be matter of time the bears pile on.  
P-n-f chartists will note that a trade at $24.00 will create a 
triple-bottom sell signal.  In a bear market, triple-bottoms are 
historically profitable 93.5% of the time over 3.4 months, with 
an average gain of 23.0% (source: Dorsey/Wright).  Additional 
technical negativity can be gleaned from the daily stochastics 
(5,3,3), which have reversed into a downtrend.  Aggressive 
traders could actually enter short positions on a move below the 
52-week low of $24.85, before the p-n-f breakdown occurs.  Others 
could use $23.99 as a bearish action point.  In terms of profit-
targets, we'd be anticipating an eventual decline to the $20.00 
region.




--- 

Avery Dennison Corp - AVY - close: 60.00 change: -0.72

WHAT TO WATCH: Shareholders of this packaging company can't be 
pleased with how the stock has performed over the past two 
sessions.  On Thursday, AVY abandoned the 200-dma ($61.03).  This 
was followed by a violation of the 50-dma ($60.71) on rising 
volume.  With the oscillators pointing lower, the stock looks 
like it could soon make its way to the $55 level.  This could be 
hastened by today's break though bullish point-and-figure support 
at $60.00.  On a related p-n-f note, AVY is currently signaling a 
double-bottom breakdown.  Short entries can be targeted on a move 
under today's low of $59.25.




---

Brocade Communications - BRCD - close: 12.31 change: -0.47

WHAT TO WATCH: No doubt about it, BRCD is already looking 
oversold after falling more than 25% in just two weeks.  
Unfortunately for the bulls, the worst may be yet to come.  The 
stock has breached historical support (2001 lows) near $12.50 and 
is trading at levels not seen since 1999.  There hasn't been any 
recent news to push it lower, but the overall pessimistic climate 
in the computer storage industry hasn't helped BRCD to find a 
bottom.  The lack of underlying support indicates that a near-
term test of the $10.00 level may be forthcoming.  Aggressive 
short positions could be gauged on a move below $12.25.




---

Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 44.50 change: -0.65

WHAT TO WATCH: The long-term uptrend in the price of oil (cl02v) 
seems to be pressuring FDX.  It's a lose-lose situation for the 
worldwide delivery company.  Sure, they could jack up rates to 
compensate for the higher price of fuel...But that makes their 
services less attractive to consumers.  Shares fell to a new 
relative low on Friday and underperformed the Dow Jones.  The 
decline was backed by stronger-than-average volume.  Glancing at 
the p-n-f chart, FDX has recently sold off from bearish 
resistance and is on the verge of a double-bottom sell signal.  
Traders can watch for a move below the multi-month low of $43.71.  
This could lead to a rapid retest of the $40.00 level.




---

Micron Technology - MU - close: 16.50 change: -1.18

WHAT TO WATCH: With the semiconductor index (SOX.X) teetering on 
the brink of multi-year lows, there are several possible shorts 
in the chip sector.  One such stock is MU.  Shares were hit for a 
6.6% loss on Friday and are now threatening a breakdown below 
critical support at $16.00.  The falling daily stochastics 
(5,3,3) hint that more selling may be in store.  Short entries 
could be gauged on a move below this level, which would create a 
double-bottom p-n-f sell signal.  Although bulls may defend the 
$15.00 mark, there are no clear support levels until the $10.00 
region.




--- 

Nextel Communications - NXTL - close: 8.29 change: +0.23

WHAT TO WATCH: Whoa...It's a wireless provider with an improving 
fundamental picture!  Nextel announced on Monday that a strong Q3 
had put the company in position to "meet or exceed" previous 2002 
growth estimates.  This news follows an impressive 10-week 
uptrend that has seen NXTL more than triple in value.  
Technically, the stock is trading near multi-month highs.  The 
positive outlook, combined with a breakout above $8.50, could 
have the bears running for the exits.  P-n-f traders will notice 
that NXTL is currently displaying a bullish triangle breakout.  
Traders with a high risk tolerance could target a move to the 
$10.00 level. 




---  

St. Paul Companies - SPC - close: 32.10 change: +0.35

WHAT TO WATCH: With the 9/11 anniversary fading into the rearview 
mirror, concerns of an imminent terrorist act have subsided.  
This is a large monkey off the back of insurance companies.  SPC 
looks positioned to rally if the overall sector catches a bid.  
Shares popped above its 50-dma ($30.55) this week and are 
currently trading slightly below short-term resistance near 
$32.75.  With the p-n-f chart already signaling a double-top buy 
signal, traders can think about going long on a move above the 
relative high of $32.76.  This may lead to a rapid retracement of 
the June/July sell-off.  Those with a short-term timeframe can 
target a rally to psychological resistance at $35.00.




---

Stanley Works - SWK - close: 33.68 change: -0.52

WHAT TO WATCH: SWK got whacked in mid-July after the company 
disappointed Wall Street with its earnings report.  This came 
after several months of "will they or won't they" speculation 
over whether Stanley would stick with its unpopular decision to 
reincorporate in the tax haven of Bermuda.  Ultimately the 
company decided not to go through with these plans, but investors 
don't seem to care.  The stock has been rangebound for nearly two 
months, with the $33.00 level continually acting as support.  
Downtrending action in the daily stochastics (5,3,3) indicates 
that a breakdown might be in the "works."  Short positions can be 
evaluated on a move below $33.00.  This would ensure a triple-
bottom breakdown on the p-n-f chart.  Possible historical support 
lies at the $32.50 level, but continued broader market weakness 
could see SWK test the $30.00 mark in short order.




--- 

Whirlpool Corp - WHR - close: 51.74 change: +0.58

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of WHR are hovering above key support and 
may soon get flushed down the drain.  With competitor MYG leading 
the way lower, WHR has seen enthusiastic selling in recent weeks. 
$50.00 has offered support over the past two months and also put 
a floor under the stock in 2001.  A violation of this level could 
precipitate another downward leg.  The falling oscillators 
suggest that WHR will see more selling pressure.  Should support 
fail, we would not be surprised to see the stock make a move to 
the $45.00 region within a matter of days.




------------
RADAR SCREEN
------------

A - Shares of A saw a steep ascent at the start of September but 
have been unable to clear the intermediate-term descending 
trendline.  The daily stochastics (5,3,3) are just beginning to 
release from the upper band, offering technical confirmation that 
the stock is overbought.  A move below today's low ($14.60) could 
result in a retest of the recent lows near $12.75.

BRCM - Broadcom has recently found support in the $15.00 region.  
Continued semiconductor bearishness could drag the stock to new 
52-week lows.  A move below $14.68 might send BRCM plummeting 
towards the $10.00 region.  P-n-f chart is on a triple-bottom 
breakdown. 

LLTC - Another weak chip stock.  Shares fell to fresh 52-week 
lows on Friday and look to be headed for a test of the $20.00 
level.  Aggressive entries could be gauged on a move below 
$22.31. 

ORCL - Oracle outperformed the NASDAQ today and spiked above the 
50-dma at $9.78.  The stock has done a good job of maintaining 
its ascending regression channel.  A rally off current levels 
could take ORCL back to the $11.00 region.

SLM - News that Sallie Mae would price $500 million in short-term 
floating rate notes sent the stock above intermediate-term 
resistance at $98.00.  This has set the stage for a test of the 
all-time highs near $100.  A move above this level would provide 
an action point for aggressive traders. 

THC - Tenet Healthcare has shown good relatively strength and is 
approaching the all-time high at $52.13.  A breakout above this 
mark could clear the way for a rally to the $60.00 level.  The p-
n-f chart is showing a quadruple-top breakout.


================
Market Sentiment
================

Not So Fast

by Steven Price

Divergence.  This is the key word for today.  After the markets 
had been moving in unison, we saw the techs higher (not very 
often that I get to say that), the S&P 500 higher, but the Dow 
lower. The Nasdaq Composite finished up 11.72 to close at 
1291.40, while the NDX tacked on 8.82 to close at 923.83.  The 
Dow gave up 66.72 to close at 8312.69, while the S&P 500 added 
2.90 to close at 889.81.  We were actually on the brink of a 
significant technical breakdown in all four major indices, before 
today's action threw us a bullish bone. 

A bearish head and shoulders had been forming in the Dow, Nasdaq, 
NDX and S&P 500.  A neckline break looked as though it was about 
to occur at the Dow's 50% retracement level of its gains from 
July 24 to August 22, which is 8303.  Lo and behold, the Dow 
found support at this level once again, after doing so on five 
straight occasions last week.  So while the index was down on the 
day, the recovery from 8247 was actually somewhat bullish.  Maybe 
bullish isn't the word just yet, but it could have been much 
worse.  

A similar phenomena occurred in the NDX and Nasdaq Composite, 
where the neckline breaks looked certain, only to find buyers 
committed enough to bring the averages positive on the day.  I'd 
like to think it was due to Adobe's earnings, released last 
night, which beat the street and sent the stock up $2.32 to 
$20.77. This would have been the easy explanation and I could 
have predicted a failure on Monday instead, after the news wore 
off.   However, if that were the case, the Nasdaq would not have 
dropped 9 points earlier in the day.  No, it appears the buyers 
showed up at a critical level, much like they did in the Dow.

What makes the support even more impressive is that it came after 
warnings from Honeywell (HON) and Lucent (LU).  Honeywell lowered 
estimates, saying, "We are revising our 2002 outlook because it 
is clear that the broad economic recovery is not materializing."  
Lucent warned that 4th quarter earnings would come in below 
expectations citing market softness and uncertainty about 
consumer spending.

Sounds pretty bearish, and yet there were still enough buyers to 
prevent this technical breakdown.  The good news came from the 
retailers, whose sales rose by 0.8 percent in August.  Even 
excluding auto sales, retail sales rose a better than expected 
0.4 percent.  This was in contrast to the University of Michigan 
Consumer Sentiment Index, which fell to 86.2 from 87.6 in August.  
This was the lowest number since last November.  The Current 
Conditions Index dropped to 95.9 from 98.5 in August and the 
Expectations Index dropped from 80.6 to 80.0.  These are also the 
lowest readings since November.

So why did the buyers come back.  That is the $64,000 question 
and next Tuesday's Cisco earnings will most likely give us the 
answer.  Adobe did say that they saw a rebound in their U.S. 
business, which is the first time we have heard that in a while.  
What's more, they cited the education market as a significant 
reason for that rebound.  Schools that are buying new software 
are most likely purchasing computers as well, and that is a 
pretty big customer.  However, this still amounts to government 
spending, rather than business spending, and Alan Greenspan is 
trying to reduce that as I write.  Maybe not specifically 
educational spending, but government spending in general.  The 
main problem for the techs has been lack of IT spending by 
businesses, and we have yet to hear about an increase in that 
area.  

I still have a hard time seeing a rebound, but somebody out there 
held serve today.  I will continue to look for a close under 8300 
in the Dow as a very bearish sign for the market.  However, I 
will also trade what I see and right now that is keeping me on 
the sidelines until I get confirmation.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10679
52-week Low :  7702
Current     :  8312

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8450
 50-dma: 8586
200-dma: 9635

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1226
52-week Low :  797
Current     :  889

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  899
 50-dma:  903
200-dma: 1054

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1782
52-week Low :  892
Current     :  923

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  923
 50-dma:  959
200-dma: 1290


-----------------------------------------------------------------



The Retail Index:  Consumer spending is alive and well.  For the 
month of August, anyway.  We got a 0.8% increase in retail sales 
this morning, which was above expectations.  The index jumped 
back over the 300 level and is looking at a double top formation.  
The second top actually traded higher than the first in intraday 
trading on Wednesday, but closed weakly near its lows.  If the 
sector can take out its recent high of 306.72 and stay there, it 
could possibly lead a recovery in the broader markets.  This is a 
big "IF," however.  It was turned back from this level after 
August 22nd and is one of the few sectors actually re-testing 
resistance, rather than support.  The index was reformulated 
earlier in the year, so the 52 week high/low levels are not 
reflective of current positioning and I have left them out below.

52-week High: n/a
52-week Low : n/a
Current     : 300

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 294
 50-dma: 288
200-dma: 329


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX just keeps hanging in there around 40.  The head and 
shoulders neckline test was successful across the board, and it 
appears that traders are not sure what to make of these levels.  
Even with 3 days of time decay ahead, premium levels have 
remained high.  The divergence between a sinking Dow and rising 
Nasdaq hasn't made the picture any clearer, and it will take both 
indices heading up for several days together to bring the 
premiums down.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 39.31 -1.41
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 55.85 -0.59

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.89        397,403       352,949
Equity Only    0.71        298,430       211,055
OEX            1.00         29,293        29,223
QQQ            0.83         34,899        28,821

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          43      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    34      - 8     Bull Correction
DOW           50      - 2     Bull Correction
S&P 500       51      - 1     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       46      - 2     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.25
10-Day Arms Index  1.41
21-Day Arms Index  1.33
55-Day Arms Index  1.31

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1523          1168
NASDAQ     1743          1404

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         13              58
NASDAQ       27             108

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,487
NASDAQ   1,248


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/10/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials reduced long positions and added to shorts, 
reflecting an increase of almost 8,000 short contracts overall.  
Small traders increased both sides of the equation considerably, 
leaning long by an extra 3,000 contracts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
08/20/02      422,100   469,556   (47,456)   (5.3%)
08/27/02      425,982   469,087   (43,105)   (4.8%)
09/03/02      431,755   468,529   (36,774)   (4.1%)
09/10/02      426,230   470,537   (44,307)   (5.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/20/02      156,974    69,071    87,903     38.9%
08/27/02      153,152    72,408    80,744     35.8%
09/03/02      158,262    80,130    78,132     32.8%
09/10/02      166,696    85,259    81,437     32.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Commercials added to both long and short positions, for a net 
reduction of 1,000 contracts to the short positions.  Small 
traders also added to both sides, netting out about the same as 
they finished the last period.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
08/20/02       41,876     49,461    (7,585) ( 8.3%)
08/27/02       45,354     50,634    (5,280) ( 5.5%)
09/03/02       46,712     53,287    (6,575) ( 6.6%)
09/10/02       53,309     58,745    (5,436) ( 4.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/20/02       11,321     7,980     3,341    17.3%
08/27/02       10,156     8,040     2,116    11.6%
09/03/02       11,150     7,720     3,430    18.2%
09/10/02       14,024    10,494     3,530    14.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials added slightly to both sides, leaving their long 
contract positions slightly higher by about 800 contracts.  Small 
traders beefed up both sides, with an extra 1,000 short contracts 
overall.  


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/20/02       21,160    15,349    5,811      15.9%
08/27/02       21,023    14,328    6,695      18.9%
09/03/02       21,161    13,792    7,369      21.1%
09/10/02       22,946    14,936    8,010      21.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/20/02        6,216     8,163    (1,947)   (13.5%)
08/27/02        6,825     8,438    (1,613)   (10.6%)
09/03/02        6,395     7,966    (1,571)   (10.9%)
09/10/02        7,568    10,129    (2,561)   (14.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
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Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-13-2002
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  CTSH, LLL
  Bearish Play Updates:  MXIM

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     CUM, GE
  Bullish Play Updates:  CLX
  Bearish Play Updates:  AEP, AGN, DUK, GE

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     INVN
  Closed Bullish Plays:  CA
                        


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - cls: 62.53 chg: -0.58 stop: 59.65

CTSH closed out the week on a relatively quiet note, as shares 
traded in a narrow 1.73-point range on nominal volume.  Today's 
0.91% loss was somewhat disappointing for the bulls, considering 
that the NASDAQ rose by the same percentage.  But overall it's 
difficult to make much of today's action.  CTSH has thus far 
maintained relative highs and not even approached psychological 
support at $60.00.  Conservative traders may want place their 
stops just under this level, while those looking to open new long 
positions can continue to watch for a move above $64.17.  There 
were no fresh news developments for CTSH today.

Picked on September 9th at $61.40 
Results since picked:       +1.13
Earnings Date            07/15/02 (confirmed)
 



--- 

L-3 Comm. - LLL - close: 56.98 change: +1.28 stop: 54.67 *new*

Wow!  LLL has shown great relative strength over the past week, 
and that was certainly the case today.  The stock reached a new 
multi-month high and finished with a gain of 2.2%.  This was 
despite a 66-point pullback in the Dow Jones.  That's a very good 
sign for our long play.  Bulls can also be pleased with Friday's 
successful test of psychological support at $55.00.  Given these 
positive technical developments, it would not be surprising to 
see LLL approach our profit-target at $59.99 early next week.  On 
a more general note, we're encouraged by the reaction to 
Thursday's news that LLL purchased two divisions from NOC.  
Typically the buyer will suffer a sell-off following the 
announcement of an acquisition.  Wall Street seems to think that 
L-3's fundamental outlook has been strengthened by the recent 
deal.  Concerning new entry points: Rather than trying to chase 
this one higher, we'd recommend that traders wait for another 
pullback to the $55.00-$55.50 region before considering bullish 
positions.  Note that we've moved our stop-loss up to $54.67, 
slightly under Tuesday's low.  This should protect a small gain.

Picked on September 9th at $53.25 
Results since picked:       +3.73
Earnings Date            07/16/02 (confirmed) 


 

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 27.90 change: -0.14 stop: 30.06

It was a "good news, bad news" day for the chip group.  GNSS 
caught a bid on Friday after the company announced it would beat 
revenue estimates for the current quarter.  However, this 
positive sector development was countered by ESST, who slashed 
its targets for the second half of 2002.  Shares of the DVD 
chipmaker were ravaged for a 31% loss.  With no other major news 
driving the group, the SOX.X continued to drift towards key 
support at 275.  MXIM also witnessed light selling pressure on 
Friday.  Our short play was activated when shares hit our entry 
trigger at $27.44.  The stock traded mostly flat in afternoon 
trading and finished with a small loss.  Going forward, we'll be 
watching for shares to break under today's low ($27.34) and move 
towards the $25.00 region.  New short entries can be targeted on 
a move under $27.00, which would create a triple-bottom p-n-f 
breakdown.

Picked on September 13th at $27.44
Gain since picked:           -0.46
Earnings Date             11/05/02 (unconfirmed)
 





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Cummins Inc - CUM - close: 27.97 change: -0.65 stop: *text*

Company Description:
A global power leader, Cummins Inc. is a corporation of 
complementary business units that design, manufacture, distribute 
and service electrical power generation systems, engines and 
related technologies, including fuel systems, controls, air 
handling, filtration and emissions solutions. (source: company 
press release)

Why We Like It:
Fundamentally speaking, there haven't been a whole lot of recent 
developments for Cummins.  On the surface, the July earnings 
report gave investors something to cheer about.  The company 
reported a quarterly profit of 31 cents/shares.  This was eleven 
cents better than the consensus estimates.  This positive news, 
however, was tempered with some bearish comments.  Cummins CEO 
Tim Solso stated that demand remains uncertain in the U.S. 
market, and a rebound in the power-generation market wasn't 
expected until sometime in 2003.  The "what have you done for me 
lately" crowd on Wall Street may have seen this fuzzy outlook as 
a reason not to own the stock.  From a broader macroeconomic 
standpoint, continued worries about the sustainability of the 
latest economic upturn have taken their toll on capital goods 
stocks such as CUM.

Turning our attention to the technical picture, CUM is flirting 
with a breakdown.  The stock recently rolled from its 50-dma 
($30.21) and is within striking distance of 52-week lows.  The 
falling daily stochastics and recent pattern of relative weakness 
are indications that the bulls may not be able to hold current 
levels.  P-n-f enthusiasts will also notice that CUM recently 
produced a double-bottom sell signal.  In light of this technical 
weakness, we believe a breakdown could lead to an eventual test 
of the $22.00 level.  Shorter-term traders could look for a move 
to psychological support at $25.00.  In order to ensure that we 
don't enter this hypothetical trade until CUM is trading below 
all levels of historical support, we're placing an entry trigger 
at $26.99.  If this play is activated we'll use a stop at $29.16 
just above Thursday's high.  More aggressive traders could use a 
stop slightly above the falling 50-dma at $30.21.  

For annotated chart: click here
Chart of: CUM, daily.



Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <-- See text 
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             10/10/02 (unconfirmed)
 



--- 

General Motors - GM - cls: 44.08 chg: -1.33 stop: *text*

Company Description:
General Motors (NYSE: GM), the world's largest vehicle manufacturer, 
designs, builds and markets cars and trucks worldwide, and has been 
the global automotive sales leader since 1931. GM employs about 
355,000 people around the world. (source: company web site)

Why We Like It:
With profit margin's being squeezed by 0% financing and a 
potential strike looming, General Motors is certainly having its 
fair share of problems.  Today, the Canadian Auto Workers Union 
called the recent contract offer "the worst first offer" in the 
history of the union.  General Motors has a September 17th 
midnight deadline to iron out a contract before workers strike.  
Further, the competitive environment of 0% financing and cash 
rebates has squeezed profits for automakers as a whole.

Examining the GM chart, we see that the stock has been in a 
downtrend since April of 2000.  The stock shows a long-term 
downtrend on the weekly chart, where the Stochastics are entering 
the oversold region.  On the daily chart, bears are encouraged 
with the most recent breach of support in the $44.00-$44.17 
region.  Further, the stock failed at descending resistance and 
could not trade above the 50-dma.  The daily Stochastics have 
just entered the oversold region, and the daily MACD seems to be 
falling back under the 0 line.  On the P&F chart there is support 
beneath current levels at $40.00, and $39.00.  However, bears are 
anticipating that skeptical bulls will further attend the current 
weakness by running for the hills.  

The newsletter is considering a paper short position by 
instituting a trigger three pennies below today's low at $43.89.  
If activated, the initial stop for General Motors will be twelve 
cents above the 50-dma at $46.01, with our sites set on a 
preliminary profit target of $40.51.  However, if the stock 
begins to show immediate weakness, we will lower our target 
accordingly.  If this short works out as designed, this 
automotive company could soon need some repairs.

For Annotated Chart: Click Here
Chart of: GM, Daily.



Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <-- See text 
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             10/15/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Clorox Corp - CLX - close: 43.00 change: +0.32 stop: 41.99

With the broader market tanking on Thursday, we were concerned 
that CLX would be unable to maintain current levels.  Thus, it 
was encouraging to see the stock display relative strength on 
Friday.  Shares posted a 32-cent gain and clearly outpaced the 
Dow Jones.  On another positive technical note, we're pleased 
with the way shares bounced from just above the 200-dma at 
$42.21.  Our stop will remain intact as long as the bulls 
continue to defend this moving average.  Should CLX experience a 
rebound next week, traders looking for new entries can target a 
move above the relative high of $43.85. 

Picked on September 11th at $43.63
Results since picked:        -0.63
Earnings Date             08/07/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

American Electric Pwr. - AEP - cls: 29.40 chg: +0.14 stop: 31.01

The Newsletter was triggered in AEP this morning when the stock 
traded below $28.99.  Without much notable media buzz today, AEP 
fell on broader market weakness prior to the weekend.  Bears are 
encouraged by today's move, as the stock has made a new relative 
low, and closed below support in the $29.50 area.  Further, the 
Daily MACD continues to fall beneath the 0 line, and could see 
more weakness if bulls scamper for the hills.  At this time, the 
newsletter will leave our stop at $31.01.

Picked on September 13th at $28.98
Results since picked:        -0.42
Earnings Date             07/25/02 (confirmed)
---

Allergan - AGN - close: 53.05 change: -0.95 stop: 56.11 

Bears are encouraged by Allergan's descending move today, as the 
stock showed poor relative strength compared to the 
Pharmaceutical Index (DRG.X).  Allergan dropped -0.95 cents on 
the day, as investors continue to remain skeptical of the 
company's battle with the FDA over potentially misleading Botox 
ads.  Further, the descending MACD could bode well for bears, as 
technical sellers could begin to take additional notice of the 
stocks fragility.  The newsletter will allow AGN plenty of room 
to wiggle, thus leaving the stop at $56.11.

Picked on September 11th at $54.69
Results since picked:        +1.64
Earnings Date             10/24/02 (confirmed)




---

Duke Energy - DUK - close: 22.98 change: +0.44 stop: 25.67

As summer and early autumn storms hound the gulf, DUK energy 
announced that 150 mmcfd had been cut from its 5.7 bcfd system, 
as producers took precautions from hurricane Hanna.  The Texas 
Eastern pipeline funnels gas from offshore fields, and transports 
the gas to Northeastern markets.  This news coupled with a -66.72 
point decline in the Dow should have caused weakness in Duke.  
However, the stock showed resilient strength in today's trading, 
closing up +0.44 cents.  Thus, bears are slightly concerned that 
bulls could have more in store for DUK.  The daily Stochastics 
have turned up and could ascend if bulls persist to nudge DUK 
higher.  The newsletter will not move the stop at this time, 
allowing DUK plenty of space to move if volatility arises.

Picked on September 11th at $23.74 
Results since picked:        +0.76
Earnings                  10/15/02 (unconfirmed)




---

General Electric - GE - cls: 27.05 chg: -0.95 stop: 29.71

The newsletter was triggered in our paper short this morning, 
when GE opened at $27.65, below our action point.  A warning from 
Dow component Honeywell (NYSE:HON) led the broader market lower 
today, potentially adding weight to GE as well.  Further, 
investors could still be weary of GE's retirement compensation 
package to former CEO John Welch.  However you slice it, 
investors pushed the stock down -3.39%, displaying poor relative 
strength to the Dow's -0.79% decline.  Bears would like to see a 
close below technical and psychological support at $27.00 in the 
next few sessions.  Further, bulls remain concerned with the 
MACD, which is trending lower in the lower region, and the daily 
Stochastics, which continue to travel in the oversold region. For 
the time being, the newsletter will leave the current stop at 
$29.71.

Picked on September 13th at $27.65 
Results since picked:        +0.60
Earnings Date             07/12/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Invision Tech - INVN - cls: 35.76 chg: +2.00 stop: *text*

Company Description:
InVision Technologies develops, manufactures, markets and 
supports explosive detection systems based on advanced Computed 
Tomography (CT) technology for civil aviation security. 
InVision's wholly owned subsidiary Quantum Magnetics develops 
weapons, narcotics, explosives and other detection systems based 
on quadrupole resonance and other proprietary magnetic sensing 
technologies. InVision's wholly owned subsidiary Inovec develops, 
manufactures, markets and supports scanning, optimization and 
control systems for the forest products industry.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:

One year after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, defense companies are 
thriving as national security has been heightened to levels not 
seen in quite a long time.  Recently, President Bush proposed a 
$48 billion dollar increase in the defense budget for next year.  
Further, Invision Technologies, which provides luggage scanners 
for airports, has seen unprecedented demand for its products, as 
airports have been a portal for terrorists.  In addition, L-3 
Communications has been rumored to potentially bid for INVN, in a 
substantial defense merger.   Today, Invision broke its best 
levels since April, trading on spiked volume of more than 1.75 
million shares.  

Examining the technical events of INVN, the stock has recently 
breached descending resistance on the P&F chart, and could find 
bullish support if buying persists.  The point and figure chart 
displays resistance in the $37.00 level, though a move above 
could bring in further bulls.  On the daily chart, Stochastics 
are entering the overbought region.  Technical bulls are 
anticipating a move above $36.72, to indicate a test of $37.00.  
Our thoughts for this play are that war tensions with Iraq and 
the terrorist threat are not going to subside in the near future.  
Thus, with a potential bid for INVN from L-3 Communications and 
plausible increased demand from the government, this play could 
ascend.  We are adding INVN to the High Risk/High Reward section 
of our play list because the daily MACD has been traveling in the 
upper region, and the weekly Stochastics are pinned in the 
overbought region.

Our plan for INVN is to put a trigger above today's high at 
$36.66, with an initial profit target at $44.99.  If activated, 
our preliminary stop will be at $32.79, just one penny below 
yesterday's low.  Bulls are anticipating that this stock will 
detect a buying explosion in the near future.  

For Annotated Chart: Click Here
Chart of: INVN, Daily.



Picked on August xxth at $xx.xx <-- See text 
Results since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date          07/23/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  -------------------- 

Computer Assoc. - CA - cls: 11.09 chg: -0.36 stop: 10.94

With no major news coming from today's analyst conference, CA 
continued to fall towards the 50-dma.  Backed by the strongest 
volume in over two weeks, shares pierced this moving average on 
an intraday basis and finished with a loss of 3.1%.  Our play was 
stopped out for a loss of 11.4%.  Interestingly, shares bounced 
from last Friday's low of $10.85 and closed above the 50-dma.  
This offers some hope for the bulls that CA will rebound next 
week.  However, the falling daily stochastics and recent relative 
weakness versus the NASDAQ are indications that CA will continue 
its descent.  A violation of today's low could lead to a test of 
the $10.25 level.

Picked on September 11th at $12.35 
Results since picked:        -1.41
Earnings Date             07/22/02 (confirmed)
 






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To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 09-13-2002
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of September 16th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


==================================================
Market Watch for the week of September 16th
==================================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

None


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

AAUK   Anglo American PLC    Tue, Sep 10  -----N/A-----        N/A
BBY    Best Buy              Tue, Sep 17  Before the Bell     0.18
BMET   Biomet                Tue, Sep 17  Before the Bell     0.24
CLL    Celltech Group Plc    Tue, Sep 17  -----N/A------       N/A
CPRT   Copart                Tue, Sep 17  After the Bell      0.17
IBC    Interstate Bakeries   Tue, Sep 17  -----N/A------      0.58
KR     Kroger                Tue, Sep 17  -----N/A------      0.37
ORCL   Oracle                Tue, Sep 17  After the Bell      0.07
PIR    Pier 1 Imports        Tue, Sep 17  Before the Bell     0.23


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

BSC    Bear Stearns          Wed, Sep 18  Before the Bell     1.21
CC     Circuit City Stores   Wed, Sep 18  -----N/A------      0.00
DRI    Darden Restaurants    Wed, Sep 18  -----N/A------      0.39
E      ENI SpA               Wed, Sep 18  -----N/A------       N/A
GIS    General Mills         Wed, Sep 18  Before the Bell     0.53
MLHR   Herman Miller         Wed, Sep 18  After the Bell      0.03
KBH    KB Home               Wed, Sep 18  Before the Bell     1.67
LEN    Lennar                Wed, Sep 18  Before the Bell     1.78
NKE    Nike                  Wed, Sep 18  Before the Bell     0.80
WOR    Worthington Indstrs   Wed, Sep 18  Before the Bell     0.24


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

COMS   3Com                  Thu, Sep 19  After the Bell     -0.03
CTAS   Cintas                Thu, Sep 19  -----N/A------      0.36
CAG    ConAgra Foods, Inc.   Thu, Sep 19  Before the Bell     0.40
FDX    FedEx Corp            Thu, Sep 19  08:00 am ET         0.49
JBL    Jabil Circuit         Thu, Sep 19  After the Bell      0.14
MDZ    MDS                   Thu, Sep 19  Before the Bell     0.18
PAYX   Paychex               Thu, Sep 19  Before the Bell     0.19
TEK    Tektronix             Thu, Sep 19  After the Bell      0.07


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

CCL    Carnival              Fri, Sep 20  -----N/A------      0.77


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

BLUD    Immucor Inc.              3:2      09/13       09/16
DORL    Doral Financial           3:2      09/14       09/16


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Let this market watch help to excavate the ruins of the bear market 
over the next week.

==============================================================
                       -For-           

Monday, 09/16/02
----------------
Business Inventories(BB)Jul  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:     0.2%


Tuesday, 09/17/02
-----------------
Industral Production(DM)Aug  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:     0.2%
Capacity Utilization(DM)Aug  Forecast:  76.2%  Previous:    76.1%


Wednesday, 09/18/02
-------------------
CPI (BB)                Aug  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:     0.1%
Core CPI (BB)           Aug  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:     0.2%
Trade Balance (BB)      Jul  Forecast:-$37.0B  Previous:  -$37.2B

Thursday, 09/19/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   09/14  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:     426K
Housing Starts (BB)     Aug  Forecast: 1.650M  Previous:   1.649M
Building Permits (BB)   Aug  Forecast: 1.690M  Previous:   1.712M
Current Account (DM)    Sep  Forecast:    2.5  Previous:     -3.1


Friday, 09/20/02
----------------
Treasury Budget (AB)    Aug  Forecast:-$55.0B  Previous:  -$80.0B


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

GTK     Gtech Holdings             24.02     +3.76
KSWS    K-Swiss Inc.               18.88     +1.31
OVER    Overture Services          22.78     +1.06
PROV    Provident Financial        24.45     +0.59
AGM     Federal Agriculture        28.51     +2.26
BEBE    Bebe Stores Inc.           15.75     +0.

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name              Close     Change 

ITRI    Itron Inc.                16.78     +1.98
NET     Networks Associates       14.22     +1.12
NEOL    Neopharm Inc.             13.35     +2.15
ATRS    Altiris Inc.              11.33     +1.63
GISX    Global Imaging Systems    19.15     +1.18

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CLE     Claires Stores             23.27     +1.09
GTK     Gtech Holdings Inc.        24.02     +3.76
ROAD    Roadway Express            33.06     +1.16
ADBE    Adobe Systems              20.77     +2.32
SLM     Slm Corp.                  98.94     +3.43

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ITW     Illinois Tool Works        63.30     -1.62
STJ     Saint Jude Medical Inc.    35.97     -1.53
AGY     Argosy Gaming Co.          25.85     -1.16
CAT     Caterpillar Inc.           40.64     -1.75
HON     Honeywell International    23.56     -4.78

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BWA     Borg Warner Inc.           60.00     -0.98
PFED    Park Bancorp Inc.          21.85     -0.65
MBT     Mobile Telesystems         31.41     -0.24
CSK     Chesapeake Corp            20.42     -0.18




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