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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 09/17/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 09-17-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Volume is Back!
Market Sentiment: Market Sentiment will be posted shortly at the 
                  PremierInvestor.net website.
Play-of-the-Day:  A Triple Whammy!

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------        
      09-17-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8207.55 -172.60  8482.34  8192.01 1.67 bln    949/2242
NASDAQ   1259.94 - 15.90  1298.50  1295.30 1.45 bln   1204/2104
S&P 100   438.55 -  8.10   453.44   437.86   Totals   2153/4346
S&P 500   873.52 - 17.58   902.68   872.38 
RUS 2000  379.31 -  6.82   388.46   379.15 
DJ TRANS 2203.69 - 28.30  2262.91  2201.04   
VIX        41.96 +  1.42    42.21    38.50   
VXN        60.39 +  2.66    60.67    57.08
Total Vol   3,321M
Total UpVol   547M
Total DnVol 2,733M
52wk Highs    88 
52wk Lows    340
TRIN        2.81
PUT/CALL      1.20
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Volume is Back!

Unfortunately it was all down! For all U.S. markets the total
down volume at 2.7 billion swamped up volume of only 548 million. 
Traders came back to news of an apparent Iraq capitulation and
were faced with covering shorts in an exploding market. Once 
the Iraq news was called into question those same traders piled 
on the shorts again to recover their lost profits. 

Dow Chart



Nasdaq Chart



It was an ugly day after about 9:40. All the good news for the 
bulls was sold with abandon by institutions looking for an
opportunity to raise cash and get out of stocks. The bad news
started with the Industrial Production numbers which came in
much lower than expected at -0.3% instead of estimates for a
gain of +0.1%. This was the first decline in production in 
seven months and shows that the economy is rapidly coming to
a halt. Construction was the only sector to post an improvement.
Business equipment has now declined two months in a row. The
risks to the economy are definitely to the downside as the Fed
would say. There was slightly more than a 10% chance of a rate
cut by October yesterday. After this report and the JPM warning
tonight those chances should get much better tomorrow. 

We had earnings warnings from almost every sector today and 
those warnings helped add speed to the bursting Iraq bubble. 
McDonalds lead the parade with a McWarning, the 6th in the 
last two years. Store traffic is down, sales are down, competitors
are kicking Mcbutt with the 99 cent menus. MCD fell to 18.91
and a seven year low. Who says there is no recession? (grin)

Kroger (nyse:KR) missed analyst's estimates for the quarter and
lowered estimates for the year. The slumping economy was the
major reason along with increased competition. ToysRus (nyse:TOY)
was cut after analysts were told that buyers were cutting 
nonessential inventory for the 4Q and reducing the number of 
toy lines carried. It appears that inventory levels are too
high for the current and expected holiday sales levels and 
TOY is going to cut the expected losses early. BBY hit lowered
estimates this morning but said profits would be flat the rest
of the year. They said sales of big screen TVs and DVD players 
are slowing due to worries over unemployment and the market. 
Schwab (Nyse:SCH) warned that retail trading volume was dropping
significantly as traders closed accounts and bailed out of the
market for safer investments. They were cutting another -1800
employees and earnings were going to suffer. 

I could go on but you get the picture. Chips, healthcare, food,
restaurants, brokers, banks, software, toys, retail and insurance 
all saw earnings warnings today. After the bell the carnage 
continued. Oracle (nasdaq:ORCL) announced earnings after the 
bell and while they hit the proforma seven cent number analysts 
were expecting they missed the revenue numbers. Oracle said it 
is still difficult to forecast future revenue and with license 
revenue down the outlook is not positive. New license revenues 
were down -24%. Larry Ellison said businesses around the globe 
were still reluctant to spend for IT until economies recovered. 

Even more detrimental to trading tomorrow was a high profile
warning from JP Morgan (nyse:JPM). They warned that 3Q earnings
would be significantly below 2Q levels. They blamed higher 
corporate credit losses, weaker trading losses and higher 
reserves for non-performing assets. They only made $100 million
in trading profits for this quarter after $1.2 billion in the
prior quarter. (You thought swing trading was hard?) They said
they had $1.4 billion in credit losses for the quarter and were
going to lose another $1 billion in questionable credit assets. 
Analysts had expected $.54 cents per share and now the guesses
are anywhere between zero and $.25 cents. This knocked the 
bottom out of the futures which were down -8.00 in after hours. 
       
Iraq news after the bell is starting to show cracks all ready. 
After the inspectors said they could be in Iraq by tomorrow
the Iraq authorities said no! We will meet with you in Vienna
in about ten days to discuss the terms of the inspection. Terms
to an unconditional offer? It appears Iraq wants limited teams,
closely watched, inspecting military sites only and lasting only 
a "matter of days". Unconditional? The only unconditional thing
about this offer is that it will not fly. Iraq saw the pressure
building and is trying to buy time. If they can delay the process
several months then it could delay the war up to a year before
the weather would be right again.  

Traders came back to work with a vengeance today and the result
was a 5:1 down volume day. The negative news tonight will apply
added pressure at the open tomorrow. Support appears to be in the
OEX 436, SPX 870, Dow 8050 level. This is not that far below where
we closed today. The TRIN closed at 2.81, VIX at 41.98, VXN 60.39
and the put/call ratio at 1.20. These are all levels that indicate
strong fear in the market and a possible bounce ahead. Unfortunately
these were closing levels and with the ORCL/JPM news they could
become even more oversold at the open. I have made the mistake
many times of seeing the market close deeply negative, have more
negative news after the bell and just when I turned severely
bearish in my outlook have it rally at the open. I don't think
that will happen tonight but with support just below us there is
a good chance the bulls will buy the dip again. I think that any
bounce is just another opportunity to get short again but my 
main point is that I would not be surprised to see us not go 
straight down. Bottom line, if you are short, stay short. If you
are not short look for a failed bounce and get short. The next
two weeks will be heavy with earnings warnings and there will not 
be many opportunities for good news. The best we could hope for 
is a rate cut from the Fed next week and that is only a slim 
chance tonight. The bears are on a feeding frenzy prior to 
hibernation and they are far from full.  

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor


================
Market Sentiment
================

Market Sentiment will be posted shortly at 
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/markets/marketsentiment/091702_1.asp


===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((new BEARISH non-tech play))
===============

Diamonds Trust - DIA - close: 82.16 change: -1.99 stop: *text*

Company Description:
The Diamonds Trust is a Dow Jones tracking stock that is traded 
on the AMEX.

Why We Like It:
It's getting awfully tough for the bulls to make their case that 
a substantial economic upturn is just around the corner.  This 
past week alone has seen no less than three of the thirty Dow 
Jones components issue an earnings warning.  HON got whacked last 
Thursday after the company lowered estimates and said the 
economic recovery was not materializing.  MCD gave shareholders a 
severe case of indigestion today after they said lower-than-
expected sales in the U.S. and Europe would result in lower 2002 
earnings.  The coup de grace came after the closing bell today, 
when JPM guided lower on rising loan losses and weak trading 
results.  Both Fitch and S&P reacted to this news by lowering the 
company's credit rating.

Overall this triumvirate of warnings paints a very bearish 
picture for the economy.  The JPM news in particular is a sign of 
macroeconomic distress.  McDonalds' declining sales could be a 
result of increased competition or a more health-conscious 
public.  Honeywell blamed their lack of revenue on a tepid post-
9/11 aviation industry.  But when one of the world's largest 
banks can't meet estimates, a certain amount of widespread 
financial weakness is implied.  This seems to be reflected in the 
broader market.  A cursory glance at the Dow-30 shows that the 
following stocks are trading at or near 52-week lows: AA, CAT, 
HON, INTC, IP, JPM, and MCD.  That's 23% of the index...And 
warning season isn't even over yet!

Technically, the Dow looks like it could eventually retest the 
7600 region.  The index has been downtrending ever since it gave 
a triple-bottom point-and-figure sell signal in late-August.  
Today's action saw a failure of near-term support at 8250.  With 
bullish p-n-f support also recently giving way, an eventual 
retest of the 7600 region appears likely.  By shorting the DIA 
(which trades in tandem with the Dow Jones Industrials) on a move 
below $81.99, we're aiming to capture a move to our profit-target 
at $76.26.  Of course, the JPM news will probably have the DIA 
gapping lower on Wednesday morning.  We will not enter this play 
if the stock opens under $81.00.  If our entry conditions are 
met, we'll use an initial stop-loss of $85.57.  This will give us 
the protection of the 50-dma.  We'll quickly tighten our stop
if/when this play begins to work to our advantage.

Before we wrap up, those PnF chartists out there might be 
interested in checking out a chart of the DIA just for kicks.
Looks like a break of bullish support to us.

Annotated chart for the DIA:



Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:         +0.00
Earnings Date                  N/A
 






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Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 09-17-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  CTSH
  Bearish Play Updates:  MXIM
  Closed Bullish Plays:  LLL

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     AHC, BDK, DIA
  Bearish Play Updates:  AEP, AGN, CUM, DUK, GE, GM
  Closed Bullish Plays:  CLX

High Risk/Reward
  Closed Bullish Plays:  INVN

Split Trader
                         CPBI: 2-for-1 split announcement

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - cls: 63.16 chg: -0.29 stop: 59.65

With the broader market seeing pointed weakness on Tuesday, the 
list of stocks hitting new 52-week highs was pretty small.  In a 
positive sign for our play, CTSH traded its way onto that list.  
Granted, the new high occurred early in the morning when shares 
briefly spiked higher, and shares followed the NASDAQ lower for 
the rest of the day.  However, bulls can also be encouraged by 
the relative strength CTSH displayed today.  A tech sector 
rebound could send the stock above today's high ($64.82) and 
psychological resistance at $65.00.  Such a breakout would 
trigger a double-top p-n-f buy signal.  Aggressive traders could 
consider adding long positions if this occurred.

Picked on September 9th at $61.40 
Results since picked:       +1.76
Earnings Date            07/15/02 (confirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Maxim Integrated - MXIM - cls: 25.48 chg: -0.89 stop: 28.06 *new* 

Lately it seems like every day brings forth another round of bad 
news for the chip sector.  Tuesday didn't see any noteworthy 
earnings warnings or brokerage downgrades in the group, but that 
didn't stop the SOX.X from falling to another multi-year low.  In 
predictable fashion, MXIM followed suit and traded to its own 
multi-year low.  Overall we're very pleased with how this play 
has progressed.  MXIM produced a double-bottom sell signal on 
Monday and displayed relative weakness versus the NASDAQ.  This 
is a sign that psychological support at $25.00 may not hold.  
Short-term traders may want to consider taking gains off the 
table if shares bounce from this level.  On the other hand, a 
breakdown below $25.00 would provide aggressive traders with a 
possible action point.  In light of the continued decline, we've 
inched our stop down to $28.06.  This will force MXIM to trade 
above Monday's high.

Picked on September 13th at $27.44
Gain since picked:           +1.96
Earnings Date             11/05/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

L-3 Comm. - LLL - close: 53.83 change: -3.67 stop: 54.67

The overall defense sector (as gauged by the DFX.X) was met with 
selling today following Monday's night's news that Iraq had 
agreed to "unconditional" weapons inspections.  It remains to be 
seen whether this will be enough to avoid a U.S.-led invasion, 
but the prospect of a defused conflict had most defense-related 
issues trading lower.  LLL gapped lower this morning and quickly 
violated our stop-loss at $54.67.  Our play was closed for a 
hypothetical profit of 2.6%.  The stock had turned in another 
solid performance on Monday and looked like it might make a move 
towards the $60.00 mark.  However, now that shares have reversed 
and the fundamental picture had become more clouded, the bulls 
will have a tough time pushing LLL above the relative high of 
$58.45.  The stock's bearish oscillators are hinting at a retest 
of the 200-dma ($52.89) or even the $50.00 level.  

Picked on September 9th at $53.25 
Results since picked:       +1.42
Earnings Date            07/16/02 (confirmed) 






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Amerada Hess Corp - AHC - close: 68.02 change: -2.41 stop: 71.31

Company Description:
Amerada Hess, headquartered in New York, is a global integrated 
energy company engaged in the exploration for and the production, 
purchase, transportation and sale of crude oil and natural gas, 
as well as the production and sale of refined petroleum products.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Trading shares of AHC present an interesting dilemma.  Do you 
believe that the price of oil will go up if the U.S. pushes 
itself into a war with Iraq or do you believe the price of oil 
will go down?  Many believe that should Bush actually pull 
together a coalition of nations to move together against Saddam 
the global economy will see this as a good thing and oil prices 
will fall.  After all, if the U.S. or the U.N. can supplant 
Saddam with a business-friendly government then OPEC will have to 
contend with a new source or actually a previously unavailable 
source of oil that will weaken their ability to control prices.  
Don't quote me but I believe Iraq is estimated to have up to 10% 
of the world's oil supplies beneath its soil.  

Let's consider the possibility that Saddam actually concedes and 
gives U.N. weapons inspectors free range to search the whole 
country unimpeded.  This could allow Iraq to begin exporting oil 
again assuming the inspectors don't find anything and all other 
U.N. resolutions are met.  You get the idea.  More oil on the 
market means lower prices.  Obviously, there is the belief that 
should a war in Iraq become a reality oil prices will rise, even 
if it's just temporary, and this is probably the reason that 
crude oil futures remain above the $29 mark.

So if the price of oil isn't dropping why are oil stocks falling? 
Currently it is estimated that the current price of oil 
($29/barrel) has already taken into account a $6 to $8 premium 
based on the expectation of war with Iraq.  If a war is imminent, 
and we did just hear about the U.S. moving some bombers closer to 
the Iraq territory, are we seeing a sell-the-news effect before 
the event actually happens?  I don't think so.  What does the 
market know that we don't that they are selling oil stocks?

Whatever the case is above true technical traders don't care.  
They are trading on what they see and not what they believe.  A 
technical trader works on the understanding that the price action 
of the stock has already taken into account all known factors 
whether they are fundamental or geo-political.  While the Premier 
Investor research team tries to incorporate a host of factors in 
making a decision to go long or short a stock, this play might be 
best classified as technicals only.  If you don't feel 
comfortable shorting an oil stock based on the current situation 
between the U.S. and Iraq then don't do it.

To cut this play write up short we like the way AHC's price 
action has been deteriorating and the new relative low looks like 
a decent entry point for bearish positions.  The 50-dma crossing 
under the 200-dma is not a good sign and the failed rally at $70 
this morning doesn't help the bulls.  The PnF chart still looks 
bad and a profit target of $62 to $63 does not look unreasonable.  
We're going to initiate the play with a stop above the 200-dma 
but more conservative traders might be able to get by with a stop 
just above the $70 mark.

View an annotated chart below:



Below is a Point-and-Figure chart of AHC:



Picked on September 17th at $68.02
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             07/24/02 (confirmed)
 



---  

Black & Decker - BDK - close: 41.92 change: -1.11 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Black & Decker is a leading global manufacturer and marketer of 
power tools and accessories, hardware and home improvement 
products, and technology- based fastening systems. (source: 
company press release)

Why We Like It:
Black & Decker reported quarterly earnings on July 23rd that 
featured an increase in full-year guidance.  Investors responded 
enthusiastically to this news and launched BDK off its multi-
month low of $35.66.  Less than a month later the stock was 
trading near $48.00.  An impressive bounce, to be sure - but the 
bulls appear to have gotten ahead of themselves.  Economic data 
continues to indicate that the economic recovery is tenuous, and 
the broader market does not seem to share Black & Decker's 
optimistic outlook.  Consumer spending is showing signs of 
improvement, but BDK hasn't been bid higher on this news.  On a 
related note, shares of competitors Stanley Works (SWK) and Snap-
On Tools (SNA) are trading near 52-week lows.

Technically, there are several reasons for our bearish bias.  
Looking at the daily chart, one sees that the rally off the July 
lows came to a dead stop at the $48.00 level.  This coincides 
with previous historical resistance.  Shares then traced a head-
and-shoulders formation and sank below the 200-dma.  The stock 
has been picking up downward momentum recently and is now 
threatening to break under the August low.  Point-and-figure 
chartists will notice that BDK is currently resting just above 
bullish support.  Although bulls may see this as a sign that 
shares will soon experience a rebound, we believe the double-
bottom p-n-f sell signal, weak bar chart, and declining broader 
market will lead to a breakdown.  If this occurs we could see the 
stock rapidly make its way to the $36.00 level.  We'll enter this 
hypothetical short trade on a move below the August low of 
$41.70.  If triggered, our stop will be set at $44.33.  This is 
just above the converging 50-day and 200-day moving averages.  
Note that we will not enter this play if BDK gaps lower on 
Wednesday morning and opens under $40.75.

View an annotated chart below:



Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <-- See text 
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             10/22/02 (unconfirmed)
 



--- 

Diamonds Trust - DIA - close: 82.16 change: -1.99 stop: *text*

Company Description:
The Diamonds Trust is a Dow Jones tracking stock that is traded 
on the AMEX.

Why We Like It:
It's getting awfully tough for the bulls to make their case that 
a substantial economic upturn is just around the corner.  This 
past week alone has seen no less than three of the thirty Dow 
Jones components issue an earnings warning.  HON got whacked last 
Thursday after the company lowered estimates and said the 
economic recovery was not materializing.  MCD gave shareholders a 
severe case of indigestion today after they said lower-than-
expected sales in the U.S. and Europe would result in lower 2002 
earnings.  The coup de grace came after the closing bell today, 
when JPM guided lower on rising loan losses and weak trading 
results.  Both Fitch and S&P reacted to this news by lowering the 
company's credit rating.

Overall this triumvirate of warnings paints a very bearish 
picture for the economy.  The JPM news in particular is a sign of 
macroeconomic distress.  McDonalds' declining sales could be a 
result of increased competition or a more health-conscious 
public.  Honeywell blamed their lack of revenue on a tepid post-
9/11 aviation industry.  But when one of the world's largest 
banks can't meet estimates, a certain amount of widespread 
financial weakness is implied.  This seems to be reflected in the 
broader market.  A cursory glance at the Dow-30 shows that the 
following stocks are trading at or near 52-week lows: AA, CAT, 
HON, INTC, IP, JPM, and MCD.  That's 23% of the index...And 
warning season isn't even over yet!

Technically, the Dow looks like it could eventually retest the 
7600 region.  The index has been downtrending ever since it gave 
a triple-bottom point-and-figure sell signal in late-August.  
Today's action saw a failure of near-term support at 8250.  With 
bullish p-n-f support also recently giving way, an eventual 
retest of the 7600 region appears likely.  By shorting the DIA 
(which trades in tandem with the Dow Jones Industrials) on a move 
below $81.99, we're aiming to capture a move to our profit-target 
at $76.26.  Of course, the JPM news will probably have the DIA 
gapping lower on Wednesday morning.  We will not enter this play 
if the stock opens under $81.00.  If our entry conditions are 
met, we'll use an initial stop-loss of $85.57.  This will give us 
the protection of the 50-dma.  We'll quickly tighten our stop
if/when this play begins to work to our advantage.

Before we wrap up, those PnF chartists out there might be 
interested in checking out a chart of the DIA just for kicks.
Looks like a break of bullish support to us.

Annotated chart for the DIA:



Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:         +0.00
Earnings Date                  N/A
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

American Electric Pwr. - AEP - cls: 28.00 chg: -1.39 stop: 31.01

The electric utilities group continues to sink and the 172 point 
drop in the Dow Jones Industrials did little to alleviate the 
descending trend for the market.  Bears should be encouraged in 
the performance with AEP.  The stock trader higher this morning, 
as did most issues, on news last night that Iraq would allow 
inspectors in the country but the rally quickly faded.  Even 
during the morning strength shares of AEP could not trade above 
the $30 resistance level.  This is a potential entry point for 
those looking to capture any future move down but we do suspect 
potential support in the $25.00 to $26.00 region.  More 
conservative traders could tighten their stops near the $30 mark 
but the Premier newsletter will keep ours at 31.01 for the 
moment.

Picked on September 13th at $28.98
Results since picked:        +0.98
Earnings Date             07/25/02 (confirmed)
---

Allergan - AGN - close: 51.67 change: -1.54 stop: 55.01 *new*

As the markets continue to slide so do shares of Allergan.  There 
hasn't been any new developments in the company's efforts with 
the FDA and their potentially misleading Botox ads.  Despite the 
lack of news, shares of AGN look set on trading to support near 
$50.00.  There are probably plenty of bears aiming for the July 
low of $49.50 so the Premier newsletter is going to set our 
profit target to exit the play at $50.00.  PI's own Kent Barton 
was quick to point out that those traders seeking to exit ahead 
of the crowd could inch their profit target a little higher (like 
$50.25, $50.11, $50.06) in case the bulls try to defend AGN from 
actually reaching the $50 mark.  For the record, PI's new target 
is $50.00 and we'll close the play should shares trade there.

Picked on September 11th at $54.69
Results since picked:        +3.02
Earnings Date             10/24/02 (confirmed)




---

Cummins Inc - CUM - close: 26.75 change: -0.93 stop: 29.16

Triggered!  As far as we can tell, this is a 10-year low for 
shares of CUM.  We don't believe the stock has ever traded below 
the $27 mark since January of 1992.  Odds are the stock could be 
trading through some stop losses set by the bulls soon.  On the 
other hand, true believers might look at this and feel the stock 
is getting cheap and offering a bargain for investors.  Since 
we're short-term traders we're going to attempt to capitalize on 
the breakdown.  As of Sunday's letter we've been waiting with a 
trigger to go short at $26.99 and this was triggered today when 
the Dow Industrials fell 172 points.  While this does look like a 
strong entry point for new shorts, traders might want to make 
sure the stock is moving in a favorable direction before opening 
any new positions.  Our stop is in place at $29.16 and we suspect 
CUM might develop potential support at the psychological level of 
$25.00.  Very short-term traders could look to cover there and 
take profits then sit back and look for a new entry.  At this 
time, the Premier Investor Newsletter is looking for a move to 
the $22.50 level or lower.

Picked on September 17th at $26.99 
Results since picked:        +0.24
Earnings Date             10/10/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Duke Energy - DUK - close: 21.89 change: -1.08 stop: 24.01*new*

The descent in the electric utility group continues and DUK is 
right there helping lead the way.  Today's 4.7% decline was 
created with a bearish engulfing candlestick, which bodes well 
for further weakness in the stock price.  Needless to say almost 
all the technical indicators are negative for the daily chart.  
This also means that the optimists out there could claim that DUK 
is oversold but that doesn't mean it can't get more oversold.  
The Premier team naturally suspects potential support at the $20 
round-number and as we approach we'll decide on a profit target.  
More aggressive bears can aim for the July lows near $18.50.  We 
are lowering our stop to $24.01 but conservative traders could 
attempt to protect capital and use a stop just above the $23.50 level. 

Picked on September 11th at $23.74 
Results since picked:        +1.85
Earnings                  10/15/02 (unconfirmed)




---

General Electric - GE - cls: 27.70 chg: -0.20 stop: 29.71

In previous years GE was commonly thought of as a proxy for the 
market (and the Industrials).  While that correlation is no 
longer as valid as it once was it was no surprise to see shares 
of the behemoth rising sharply this morning due to the Iraqi news 
last night.  Unfortunately for shareholders the gains evaporated 
quickly and shares of GE left us with a failed rally underneath 
its 50-dma.  Which, by the way, is perfectly fine if you're short 
the stock like the Premier newsletter.  However, the back and 
forth remains frustrating and traders looking for new shorts may 
want to consider waiting for GE to trade below the $27 mark once 
again before initiating any new entries.  We realize that if 
you're target is the $25 mark that 70 cents is a large percentage 
chunk of your profits but then you would probably want to use a 
lower stop than the one we have suggested.

Picked on September 13th at $27.65 
Results since picked:        -0.05
Earnings Date             07/12/02 (confirmed)

---

General Motors - GM - cls: 43.94 chg: -0.67 stop: 46.01

90% Chance was in one of the headlines this afternoon for GM and 
its dealings with the Canadian Auto Workers Union.  GM had until 
midnight tonight to negotiate a deal before the union would go on 
strike.  As of this afternoon those close the proceedings felt 
that a deal was close to be completed before the deadline.  
Whether this had any importance to Wall Street was unclear.  
Shares of GM traded like much of the market with a gap up in the 
morning and a quick fade.  The stock once again closed under the 
$44 mark, which might give bears more courage to initiate new 
positions.  We must add that in our original write up for Sunday 
we stated that GM's chart had been in a downtrend from April of 
2000.  That should have said April 2002.  We also had a trigger 
point to go short should GM trade under $43.89.  This occurred on 
Monday when the stock traded to $43.70 late Monday afternoon 
before rebounding.  Now that the newsletter is hypothetically 
short our stop loss will be $46.01, which puts it above the 50-
dma.  As short-term traders we're targeting a move to the $40.51 
mark to exit for a profit.

Picked on September 16th at $43.89 
Results since picked:        -0.05
Earnings Date             10/15/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Clorox Corp - CLX - close: 41.98 change: -1.02 stop: 41.99

Relative strength can only go so far when the broader market is 
downtrending.  CLX had shown a bullish tendency to outperform the 
Dow Jones, but the stock couldn't hold its recent highs when 
faced with a sinking Dow Jones.  Our short play was closed for a 
3.7% loss when CLX broke through the 200-dma and violated our 
stop at $41.99.  While shares aren't necessarily looking prone to 
a sell-off, the bulls will have a very difficult time pushing the 
stock above its relative high ($43.85) if the Dow keeps falling.  
The falling daily stochastics and breach of the 200-dma are signs 
of technical weakness.  Tonight's negative news from the JPM camp 
will probably have the bears out in full force on Wednesday.  
We'd consider revisiting a long play in CLX if the stock 
eventually bounced from its 50-dma near $40.00.

Picked on September 11th at $43.63
Results since picked:        -1.65
Earnings Date             08/07/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

InVision Technologies - INVN - cls: 34.53 chg: -1.73 stop: 32.79

We knew from the get-go that this play might be subjected to 
news-induced volatility.  That was the case today, after Iraq 
announced that it would give U.N. weapons inspectors unfettered 
access to its military bases.  Defense and security-related 
stocks traded lower on the news, leading to a 3.6% loss in shares 
of INVN.  Although our stop was not reached during today's 
trading action, we've elected to drop INVN as of the closing 
price at $34.53.  This represents a loss of 5.8% from our entry 
point.  Our reasoning for dropping the play at current levels is 
that we think odds are in favor of a pullback to the $32.50 
region.  INVN may very well head higher in the near-term, 
especially if Iraq does not satisfy the White House's demands.  
But on a technical basis, the daily stochastics (5,3,3) and 
bearish 15-minute chart are indicating that INVN will see more 
downside.  We'd considering going long again if shares eventually 
bounced from the $30.00 level.

Picked on September 16th at 36.66 
Results since picked:       -2.13
Earnings Date            07/23/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

CPB Inc. Sets 2-for-1 Stock Split, Boosts Quarterly Dividend

Prior to the opening bell this morning, CPB Inc. (NASDAQ: CPBI) 
announced that its Board of Directors had declared a 2-for-1 stock 
split.

The split will be payable on November 8, 2002 to stockholders of 
record on October 15, 2002.  In addition to the split declaration, 
the Board also announced a third quarter cash dividend of 
$0.20/share.  The dividend will be payable on October 25, 2002 to 
stockholders of record on September 30, 2002.  This represents an 
18.4% over the previous Q3 dividend.

CPBI most recently split in 1997; a 2-for-1 offering.  The stock 
has been steadily uptrending since 1999 and is currently trading 
near its all-time highs.  Shares have risen more than 50% YTD.  
Traders considering playing a split run in CPBI need to be aware 
that the stock trades on somewhat sporadic daily volume.

Shares closed at $44.41 on Monday.  For a current quote, click here:

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=CPBI

About the company
CPB Inc. is a Hawaii bank holding company with $1.9 billion in 
assets. Central Pacific Bank, its subsidiary, is Hawaii's third 
largest commercial bank with 23 branches statewide, including five 
supermarket branches and more than 70 ATMs statewide. (source: 
company press release)


=================
  Trading Ideas
=================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AMWD    American Woodmark Corp     49.32     +1.17

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name              Close     Change 

ITRI    Itron Inc.                18.29     +1.22

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BBY     Best Buy Co Inc            25.46     +1.37
MBG     Mandalay Resort Group      32.07     +1.12
IBC     Interstate Bakeries Corp   25.24     +1.80
FDS     Factset Research Systems   25.04     +2.63

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

FRE     Freddie Mac                58.00     -3.28
FNM     Fannie Mae                 66.25     -4.73
CAH     Cardinal Health Inc        63.90     -2.70
IP      International Paper        34.66     -1.15
HI      Household Intl Inc         29.52     -4.07
D       Dominion Resources Inc     49.75     -2.58
SWY     Safeway Inc                24.05     -2.98
YUM     Yum! Brands Inc            27.26     -2.09
MCK     McKesson Corp              29.52     -1.51
ABS     Albertson's Inc            25.22     -2.17
MTG     MGIC Investments Corp      43.29     -5.41

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

KMP     Kinder Morgan              31.98     -1.39
MIK     Michaels Stores Inc        45.90     -2.07
ALR     Allied Research Corp       21.64     -0.82




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