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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 09/20/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-20-2002
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      That Makes Four in a Row!
Play-of-the-Day:  Down the Drain
Watch List:       ABT, AMGN, RIG, TXU, QLGC, VRTS, and tons more!
Market Sentiment: Wake Me Up

******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
        WE 9-20          WE 9-13          WE 9-06          WE 8-30   
DOW     7986.02 -326.67  8312.69 -124.51  8437.20 -236.30  -209.46   
Nasdaq  1221.08 - 70.28  1291.36 -  3.94  1295.30 - 19.76  - 65.51   
S&P-100  423.90 - 20.34   444.24 -  2.43   446.67 - 14.13  - 13.70   
S&P-500  845.39 - 44.41   889.80 -  4.12   893.92 - 22.16  - 24.78   
W5000   8023.17 -417.71  8440.88 - 40.32  8481.20 -172.84  -222.85   
RUT      367.28 - 22.70   389.98 - 40.32   391.57 +   .61  -  9.17   
TRAN    2184.02 - 62.85  2246.87 - 10.20  2257.07 -  8.56  -128.69   
VIX       44.55 +  5.24    39.31 -   .73    40.04 +  4.24  +  2.99   
VXN       59.08 +  3.23    55.85 -   .69    56.54 +  1.56  +  7.36   
TRIN       0.86             1.53             0.93             1.20   
Put/Call   1.16             0.89             0.79             0.84    
******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

That Makes Four in a Row!
by Jim Brown

The markets have now posted four losing weeks in a row and the odds
are really good they will stretch it to five. The triple witching 
options expiration week expired peacefully with all the major indexes
posting minimal gains on Friday but down for the week. Earnings
warnings are accelerating and the biggest week is still ahead. 

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart


Nasdaq Weekly Chart


Nasdaq Monthly Chart



With no economic reports at the open the markets were left to trade
on stock news and that news was led by Duke Energy, which warned
before the bell for 2002 and said 2003 would be flat as well. Bowater,
a large newspaper and paper products company, warned that they would
miss earnings because of the weak economy. The reason? Fewer job ads 
and fewer merchandise ads in newspapers and magazines had cut the
consumption of paper drastically. There is a real indicator! Knight
Ridder (Nyse:KRI) warned on the same lines that classified and 
general advertising had continued to decline into September.

The Nasdaq closed with a +4 gain on Friday thanks to QCOM and the
biotech sector. Software and chips tried their best to derail the
gains. SEBL dropped -8% after bear Stearns warned that they were
having trouble closing big deals this quarter. SABA dropped -11%
on inline earnings despite affirming estimates. 

Chip stocks just can't get a break. TXN was cut to "inline" by 
Salomon Smith Barney citing slowing chip unit growth, continued
weak PC demand and an anticipated peak in wireless components
coming in the 4Q. They cut the price target to $15 from $30. Micron
dropped nearly -10% after Bear Stearns cut estimates on the 
company through 2004 on weak PC demand and pricing pressure on
DRAM chips. UTEK fell after warning that revenue for the 3Q could
drop as much as 50% from the 2Q. They credited this to the lack
of a recovery in chips and slowing order rates along with push 
outs and outright cancellations. Still the SOX only lost -3.59
and is fighting to hold the 250 level. A couple analysts are
predicting 200 as the index low. 

The only big chip winner Friday was Triquint Semi (TQNT). The 
company said it would lose less than previously expected and it 
forecast revenues to be up in the 4Q to a possible profit. TQNT
is a broad based chip maker for everything from wireless phones
to aerospace and defense. 

CIEN announced they were going to layoff another -450 employees
due to the continued weakness in the telecom and networking
sector. They said the layoffs would result in $50 million in
yearly cost savings. That is over $110K per employee. That is
some serious bucks!

The warning season has hit full speed and next week will be
very busy for the confessors. So far this quarter there have
been 457 negative warnings, 209 positive announcements and
208 inline affirmations. According to First Call the pace of 
warnings is worse than both the 1Q and the 2Q and we still 
have three weeks to go. 

Dow components have been doing their share to maintain the
warning rate. To date MCD, HON, JPM, INTC, HD, DIS have already
warned if my memory is correct. EK affirmed current estimates
but talked down future expectations. CAT is rumored to be
going to warn and PG raised guidance. This is not meant to be
a comprehensive list of all the Dow 30 but it is the ones I
remember off the top of my head. Notably absent from the list
are IBM and GE. We have been speculating on an IBM warning for
some time and with the magnitude of the EDS warnings it is 
almost unthinkable that IBM will not warn. 

That leaves us with GE, yes GE! Last quarter GE was rushing 
to affirm about twice a week. Every time somebody even close 
to their sectors would warn, GE would make an announcement 
and affirm their outlook of 17% growth for the year and defend 
their stock. Well, things have changed. Times are tougher and 
Dow components are dropping like flies around them and their 
stock is at $26. There have been cuts in estimates by several 
high profile analysts due to the weakness in the power and 
airline sectors but no response from GE. There have been 
several news articles about increased pension fund liabilities 
but no word from GE. One analyst said the reduced pension 
fund income could knock three cents off of GE earnings. 
GE is notorious for taking costs out of their balance sheets 
to enable them to make estimates. With the increased scrutiny 
over financials and accounting rules it is doubtful they can 
be as free with their reporting this time. I am not predicting 
a warning from GE but the fact that they did not affirm during 
the problems with Honeywell makes investors nervous. With their 
stock price hitting a low of $26.02 on Friday, -$7 off its 
August highs, it is obvious there is serious concern. Put a 
warning from GE and IBM in the same week and we could see a 
really ugly market. 

Another Dow component, Citigroup, just continues to be pressured.
The stock broke under $27 on Friday on worries that their legal
problems and loan liabilities were growing. One Prudential
analyst estimated they had a $10 billion liability in the 
Enron, Global Crossing, Worldcom problems. With Jack Grubman
close to turning states evidence against Salomon Smith Barney
and civil liability and even criminal cases on the horizon it
does not look good for Citigroup. 

All of these problems paint a picture for the Dow that is far
from rosy. The failure to close the week over 8000 was a technical
failure for the Dow. Now only 450 points away from the July lows
there is a good possibility that those lows will not hold. This
is a scary prospect for most traders. Just like the 8062 level
was supposed to hold for the Dow in July and didn't, the 7532
July lows may not hold in October. If we do break that level 
then it is not a successful retest but just a new low in a 
longer term pattern. 

The Nasdaq is on the verge of breaking critical lows as well. 
1216 has held for two days now but worries in the tech sector
are far from over. That critical level is Nasdaq 1200. Once that
level is broken there are several trains of thought that sees
it going to sub 1000. We are getting almost daily chip warnings 
and downgrades and over valued comments. The PC sector is 
dying without the back-to-school sales and we are only 30 
days away from the holiday surge being over for the PC 
manufacturers. The chips are made, boxed and awaiting orders
for holiday inventory. With consumers buying houses and cars
there is not a lot of money left for computers. 

Next week we have a full calendar of economics reports next
week and Tuesday is the Fed meeting to determine changes in
the monetary policy. I see only the slimmest chance of a rate
cut on Tuesday. If they were going to do it this would be the 
meeting since there is not another meeting before the November
elections. The Fed funds futures have spiked from 8% to
something in the 30% range but the indicators are not there
to support a cut. The Fed always telegraphs their intentions 
to change rates so the bond markets do not get wiped out by
unexpected events. The only comments we have had lately have 
been that the Fed was going to stand pat while the economy
recovered slowly. There have been no comments about the Fed
needing to take action. The Fed is stuck on this one. If they
cut then they are admitting the economy is slipping into danger
and the markets may crash. If they don't cut then the markets
will realize there is no additional help on the horizon and 
will sell off as well. The Fed likely sees the coming market
weakness and is still unwilling to use one of their remaining
bullets. They need to save them in case there is another 
terrorist event or the economy really starts to decelerate. 
Still there are some respected analysts calling for a cut
on Tuesday. It would be a surprise and could give the market
a bounce, but only a bounce.

This sets up a couple of rocky weeks ahead of us. We have an
almost 100% chance of a retest of the July 7532 low and the
Nasdaq falling below 1200. However, even at these levels 
analysts are still calling stocks overvalued. We are on track
to attack Iraq in the next couple of months and Brazil is 
going to elect an anti IMF candidate. Japan held a bond auction
on Friday and nobody came. For the first time since auctions
began in 1988 Japan could not sell all the bonds it needed
to fund its programs. This is in an economy that has a negative
interest rate and a stock market at a 19 year low. Analysts
said the auction failed because investors don't feel Japan
has the resolve to correct its currently spiraling economy. 
The U.S. may be one big economic island but these types of
problems will continue to weigh on our markets. 

We closed under Dow 8000 for the week. Many investors with day
jobs will open the paper this weekend and see the number for
the Dow starting with 7 and think, damn, I should have taken
my money out when it bounced to 9000 and now it is 7000 again.
(obviously it is not 7000 but the impression is what counts). 
The decision will be made to remove the rest of their shattered
account from harms way and wait for better times. Funds will
get those dreaded withdrawal calls on Monday and the rest is
history. OIN readers know better than to withdraw money now
and are looking forward to the coming buying opportunity. 
Unfortunately the herd is not that smart and will be looking
to exit at the bottom. I had several readers tell me this 
week they were transferring more money into their trading
account to be ready. Obviously our readers are smarter than
the herd. (shameless plug) Buckle your seatbelts and watch 
out for sudden drops ahead. 

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown

"Chance favors the prepared mind"

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=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH)
=========================
(( new non-tech short ))

Whirlpool Corp. - WHR - close: 48.85 change: +0.05 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Whirlpool Corporation is the world's leading manufacturer and 
marketer of major home appliances. Headquartered in Benton 
Harbor, Michigan, the company manufactures in 13 countries and 
markets products under 11 major brand names in more than 170 
countries. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
In a showdown between two of the world's largest home appliance 
manufacturers, Whirlpool and Maytag recently squared off over a 
patent infringement lawsuit concerning washing machines.  WHR 
charged that MYG had stolen its intellectual property.  Washing 
technology sounds pretty trivial in the grand scheme of things, 
but we're talking big bucks here!  The two companies announced a 
settlement in late-August that effectively ended the litigation 
process.  Although this development did not appear to have a 
substantial impact on either company's bottom lines, it's 
interesting to note that both WHR and MYG have trended lower ever 
since the settlement was reached.  The latter stock has really 
taken it on the chin, with bears dragging the stock to multi-
month lows.  WHR suffered the same fate this week, thus setting 
up what we think is an attractive short play.

Prior to this past week, shareholders of WHR had enjoyed reliable 
support at $50.00.  Thursday's broader market decline sent the 
stock below this level on stronger-than-average volume.  WHR 
drifted slowly lower for the remainder of the week, hinting 
towards more bearishness down the road.  Bears can also be 
encouraged by the recent double-bottom p-n-f sell signal.  So 
just how much downside does this stock have?  Flipping to the 
weekly chart, we see that WHR has broken below its 2001 lows.  
Possible congestion lurks in the $45-$47 range, but we don't 
think nervous investors will may much attention to those levels.  
Continued economic worries are pressuring the broader market and 
cracks are starting to show in the homebuilding sector.  If Wall 
Street has a negative outlook for future growth in the housing 
area, the implicit reduction in business for Whirlpool would 
discourage long-term investors from choosing the stock.

Given the wishy-washy (no pun intended) fundamentals and negative 
technical picture, we think shares could eventually reach the 
$40.00 region.  WHR is a relatively slow-moving stock and it may 
take an entire month to see our objective accomplished.  Traders 
looking for more rapid profits may want to look elsewhere on our 
Play List.  In terms of action points for WHR, we'll activate 
this play on a move under today's low of $48.45.  Our stop will 
be located slightly above Wednesday's high, at $51.11.  More 
aggressive traders may want to use a 10% stop at $53.28.

Picked on September xxth at xx.xx
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            10/15/02 (unconfirmed)
 




==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Abbots Laboratories - ABT - close: 41.80 change: +1.70

WHAT TO WATCH: Wow...A drug stock that's trading near multi-month 
highs!  With the DRG.X pharmaceutical index mired in an extended 
downtrend, it's hard to find bullish sector candidates.  But ABT 
is trading like a champ, having recently bounced from its 50-dma 
($38.37) and broken above resistance at $42.00.  Over the past 
three sessions, shares have been bid higher on two brokerage 
upgrades and positive comments from Goldman Sachs.  The stock 
spiked to a high of $42.27 today on the strongest volume reading 
since July.  The rising daily stochastics and bullish MACD 
suggest that ABT will keep rising in the near-term.  Point-and-
figure enthusiasts will also note that the stock is attempting to 
move above bearish resistance on a triple-top buy signal.  Given 
this technical strength, we think odds are good that ABT will 
fill in its early-June gap and move towards the $45-$46 region.  
Long entries could be gauged on a move above today's high.  




---

Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 41.72 change: -0.29

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this biotech giant had displayed good 
relative strength in recent weeks, but that was not the case on 
Thursday.  AMGN was met with heavy selling on news WYE would dump 
its stake (98 million shares) in the company.  The prospect of a 
sudden flood of supply did not please investors, and the stock 
broke through its 50-dma ($43.20) for the first time in almost 
two months.  Volume was nearly double the 10-day average.  
Today's action saw AMGN underperform the BTK.X biotech index and 
reach a new relative low of $40.55.  With the oscillators looking 
bearish, it looks like the stock will see further downside.  In 
terms of specific action points, we'd be watching for a move 
under whole-number support at $40.00.  This is also the location 
of bullish support on the point-and-figure chart.  Short-term 
traders could target a move to the $35-$36 region.




---  

Lexmark Intl. - LXK - close: 43.49 change: -0.77

WHAT TO WATCH: Although there was no apparent company-specific 
news on Friday, shares of LXK broke to new multi-month lows on 
brisk volume of 2.4 million shares.  The technical picture is not 
looking good for the bulls.  In addition to abandoning support in 
the $44-$45 range, shares are also displaying a newly-minted 
triple-bottom breakdown on the p-n-f chart.  Although there's 
some underlying historical support in the $41-$42 range, LKX 
could move towards the $35.00 level if the broader tech market 
continues to decline.  A move below today's low ($42.14) would 
provide a possible action point to go short.




--- 

May Department Stores - MAY - close: 25.94 change: -0.16

WHAT TO WATCH: MAY has fallen steadily for nearly a month amid 
declining same-store sales and a bearish retail climate in 
general.  Although the stock is already looking oversold, 
Friday's breakdown below support at $26.00 could bring more bears 
off the sidelines.  The stock is trading at 52-week lows and does 
not have any clear levels of historical support until the $20.00 
region.  Further technical negativity can be gleaned from the 
point-and-figure chart, which is displaying a bearish triangle 
sell signal.  Statistically, this formation produces an average 
gain of 33.3% over 2.5 months, with an 87.5% probability of 
success.  Not bad odds, especially considering the recent 
breakdown.  Short entries can be targeted on a move below today's 
low of $25.62.




---

Transocean Inc. - RIG - close: 19.89 change: -0.46

WHAT TO WATCH: Crude oil futures (cl02v) are holding near multi-
month highs, but the OSX.X oil service index has been 
downtrending anyway.  RIG is one of the weaker-looking stocks in 
the group.  Shares have fallen to multi-year lows and just closed 
under whole-number support at $20.00.  The fresh double-bottom 
point-and-figure sell signal does not bode well for the bulls.  
On a weekly chart, one can see that RIG tagged a low of $19.62 in 
1999.  Should this level fail, it looks like shares could quickly 
descend to the $17 area.  Further sector negativity could even 
drag RIG down to the $15 region.




--- 

TXU Corp - TXU - close: 41.00 change: -1.70

WHAT TO WATCH: Utility stocks were hammered today after DUK 
announced an earnings warning.  This news had the UTY.X utility 
index falling to multi-week lows.  Throw in continued credit and 
liquidity concerns, and you've got the recipe for more sector 
weakness.  TXU sank to a relative low on Friday on more than 
twice the average volume.  The stock seems to be gaining downward 
momentum and looks like it may eventually retest its July lows 
near $34.00.  Short positions could be evaluated on a move below 
whole-number support at $40.00.




---

UST Inc. - UST - close: 28.85 change: -1.14

WHAT TO WATCH: Tobacco stocks went up in smoke today after Morgan 
Stanley cut its 2002-2003 estimates for MO, RJR, and CG.  The 
firm cited expectations for a continued increase in marketing 
expenses.  UST wasn't specifically targeted in the downgrade, but 
nonetheless traded lower in sympathy.  The stock chart is looking 
extremely bearish, with shares breaking to fresh relative lows on 
strong volume.  With sector leaders RJR and MO also looking weak, 
a near-term retest of the July lows near $26.00 seems likely.  
Bearish entries can be gauged on a move under today's low 
($28.76) or a rollover from $30.00. 




--- 

QLogic Corp - QLGC - close: 28.54 change: -0.44

WHAT TO WATCH: Lately it's becoming difficult to find a chip 
stock that ISN'T trading at 52-week lows.  The semiconductor 
index (SOX.X) is setting new multi-year lows on a daily basis and 
has not shown any signs of rebounding.  While QLGC is still 
trading well above its 2001 lows near $17.50, shares may be 
starting to play catch-up with the rest of the sector.  Recent 
news in the storage group has not been encouraging, and shares 
fell to a relative low today on worries that the recent Sun 
Microsystems acquisition of Prius Networks would negatively 
impact QLogic's relationship with SUNW.  QLGC is technically 
oversold, but like many tech stocks we monitor, shares could 
continue lower unabated.  Bearish positions could be evaluated on 
a move under today's low ($27.26) or a failed rally at $30.00.  
Depending on your timeframe, both the $25.00 and $20.00 levels 
offer potential profit targets.




---

Veritas Software - VRTS - close: 14.48 change: -0.68

WHAT TO WATCH: Rumors that VRTS would issue an earnings warning 
had the stock tanking to multi-year lows on Friday.  The strong 
volume behind this sell-off (more than twice the daily average) 
reveals how skittish investors are.  Prudential came out with an 
intraday note claiming that the company would reaffirm earnings 
estimates.  This led to a steep rebound during the last two hours 
of trading, but shares could not manage a close above $15.00.  
Rumors aside, VRTS looks technically weak and may make its way 
towards the $12.00 level if the overall software group continues 
to decline.  Aggressive traders could target bearish positions at 
current levels, with a stop just above Thursday's high of $15.67.





------------
RADAR SCREEN
------------

ALL - The insurance sector is looking weak.  ALL fell to a 
relative low on Friday after breaking through the 200-dma at 
$36.23.  The strong volume behind this sell-off and recent three-
box p-n-f reversal are signs that shares will keep moving lower 
in the near future.  There's little in the way of support to 
prevent a retest of the July lows near $32.00.

CAT - This Dow component has fallen to 52-week lows on rising 
volume.  Although the daily stochastics are already oversold, 
aggressive traders could target short positions on a move below 
$37.40.  We'd be looking for a short-term move to the $35.00 
level.

CBM - The 10-day average volume for CBM is only 88K shares, but 
traders willing to deal with potential high volatility could 
think about shorting the stock on a move below $35.00.  This 
would trigger a double-bottom p-n-f sell signal.  The daily chart 
is looking bearish, and the weekly chart shows that shares have 
repeatedly spiked down to the $30.00 level. 

CSC - Pull up a weekly chart of CSC, and you'll see that the 
stock is in danger of breaking to levels not seen since 1995.  A 
move below $28.90 could send shares plummeting towards the $25.00 
level.  

DELL - Although DELL's a relatively slow mover, the stock could 
start picking up steam now that it's broken through the $25.00 
level.  The rolling oscillators and rising volume are technically 
bearish.  Short entries could be gauged at current levels. 

GP - Traders with nerves of steel could think about a bullish 
trade in GP.  The stock lost nearly a third of its value in just 
over a week on news that it would delay a planned separation of 
its consumer products and packing business.  That's not a 
positive development, but Wall Street's reaction may have been 
overdone.  An extension of today's 6% rebound could have GP 
moving back towards the $18.00 level.  Watch for a move above 
today's high at $15.45.


================
Market Sentiment
================

Wake Me Up

by Steven Price

I would love to say it was a slow day in the market.  The end of 
day figures suggested that was the case.  The Dow finished the 
day up 43.63, ho-hum.  The S&P 500 was up 2.07, so what.  The 
Nasdaq gained 4.64, snoooore.  Volume was how much!?!  2 billion 
shares traded on the NYSE and 1.7 billion traded on the Nasdaq.  
While these numbers are less than excessive, they are still 
significant, as were some technical developments. 

Many investors were expecting somewhat of a rebound in the Dow 
after giving up over 300 points this week and breaking through 
two significant levels of support.  The index broke its hold at 
the 50% retracement of the late summer rally and then took out 
8000 as though all it could see was July's low of 7532.  The 
group did bounce, but the bounce was turned back just over 8000, 
at 8017.  The fall back below, to close at 7986, appears as 
though we have found new resistance at 8000.  A look at the 
intraday chart shows the Dow struggling to get above that level 
all day,  peek above it briefly, before falling again.  This is 
how new trading ranges are defined, and my guess is that our 
range is now somewhere between 7500 and 8000.  The scary part of 
this prediction is not being wrong to the upside, but rather what 
might happen if I'm wrong to the downside.  The next level of 
support below 7400 is 7000 and then 6500.  While there is minor 
support between these levels, those are the major points and you 
have to go back to 1997 to find them.

The Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX.X) also looked as though it 
had finally found support after its drop from 300 to just over 
250.  Qualcomm came out with good news about cell phone chip 
orders after the bell last night and it looked like it would 
coincide nicely with the landing at possible support of 250.  A 
bounce seemed to be in the making, but the euphoria was short 
lived.  Texas Instruments was downgraded by Salomon Smith Barney, 
and saw its price target cut in half from $30 to $15.  It 
approached that level quickly as it finished the day down $1.25 
to close at $15.78.  The downgrade also broke whatever momentum 
the SOX may have established on the Qualcomm news.  The SOX broke 
250 to finish the day at 248.  While this loss may not seem very 
big, the level it crossed looks significant and hopes of a 
rebound look slim.  It is hard to sustain a broad market rally 
without help from the Nasdaq and it is hard to sustain a Nasdaq 
rally without help from the semiconductors.

I stated on Thursday that I though the drop in the market would 
most likely slow down as we reached toward July's lows. Today's 
weak bounce, however, has me wondering if that prediction was 
premature.  If the bulls are not willing to put their toes back 
into the water at significant support levels, instead finding the 
bears overhead simply too strong to overcome, the trip to Dow 
7532 and Nasdaq 1200 could be pretty fast.

A look at the bullish percentages, which measure the number of 
stocks in an index currently giving point and figure buy signals 
tells an ugly story. While the Dow, S&P 500 and NDX were all at 
or above 50% just a few weeks ago, they have all reversed down 
into the thirties.  While all were giving bullish readings, they 
are all either in bull correction or bear confirmed status.  

I still expect some type of "dead-cat" bounce along the way to 
7500, and I don't mean 40 Dow points.  We could see a 300-point 
rally, which would still be only a bear market bounce.  Look for 
a hold above 8000 before initiating long broad market plays.  And 
remember to keep tight stops on individual longs in a downward 
trending market.  There will be long opportunities, but the 
shorts definitely have more weight behind them.  We may see a 
rally on Monday ahead of the FOMC meeting, on the slim hope of a 
rate cut.  However, after they announce that they are not cutting 
rates, any rally will fade quickly on Tuesday afternoon.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10679
52-week Low :  7532
Current     :  7986

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8308
 50-dma: 8492
200-dma: 9593

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  775
Current     :  845

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  882
 50-dma:  893
200-dma: 1046

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  856
Current     :  871

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  910
 50-dma:  947
200-dma: 1272


-----------------------------------------------------------------


The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X): So much for the bounce predicted 
in this space on Thursday.  Qualcomm's flames of increased chip 
demand were quickly doused by Texas Instruments' price target 
being cut in half this morning by Salomon Smith Barney. Must have 
been an interesting day at the CBOE, where those two stocks trade 
in the same pit. The index got a bounce of a whopping four points 
before rolling over and taking out support at 250.  I've seen 
recent analyst predictions of SOX 200, but that was an eventual 
target.  That eventuality may be happening sooner rather than 
later.  There will likely be a bounce somewhere before then, but 
it only took seven trading days to drop from 300 to 248 and only 
a month to drop from 360 to today's close.  At those rates we may 
see single digits by Christmas.  Of course, that's not going to 
happen, however 200 seems a lot more reasonable today than it did 
a week ago.

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 248
Current     : 248

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 274
 50-dma: 318
200-dma: 472


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX may have dropped slightly, but the failure of the Dow at 
8000 no doubt kept traders nervous.  A 44.55 VIX carries an awful 
lot of time decay over the weekend, but on a day when the market 
actually finished up slightly, no one was selling cheap puts. We 
will most likely see the VIX remain over 40 until the Dow closes 
over 8000, or we drop much further and then find a bottom.  If 
the latter is the case than we may see 50 soon.


CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 44.55 -1.61
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 59.08 -3.68

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          1.16        597,946       695,685
Equity Only    1.03        439,576       454,388
OEX            1.29         44,942        58,182
QQQ            2.13         20,124        42,920

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          37      - 1     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    27      - 2     Bull Correction
Dow Indust.   33        0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       37      - 3     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       33      - 2     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.64
10-Day Arms Index  1.44
21-Day Arms Index  1.52
55-Day Arms Index  1.32

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1428          1287
NASDAQ     1642          1555

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         26             188
NASDAQ       26             238

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     2,071
NASDAQ   1,770


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/17/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials Increased long positions by a whopping 50,000 
contracts and shorts by 33,000.  Small traders followed suit with 
large increases, but leaned toward short position increases more 
heavily.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
08/27/02      425,982   469,087   (43,105)   (4.8%)
09/03/02      431,755   468,529   (36,774)   (4.1%)
09/10/02      426,230   470,537   (44,307)   (5.0%)
09/17/02      476,224   503,268   (27,044)   (2.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/27/02      153,152    72,408    80,744     35.8%
09/03/02      158,262    80,130    78,132     32.8%
09/10/02      166,696    85,259    81,437     32.3%
09/17/02      182,243   116,377    64,866     21.7%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Commercials increased long positions by 35% and shorts by 29%.  
Small traders increased longs by only 1,000 contracts, but 
increased short positions by 4,000, or 34%



Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
08/27/02       45,354     50,634    (5,280) ( 5.5%)
09/03/02       46,712     53,287    (6,575) ( 6.6%)
09/10/02       53,309     58,745    (5,436) ( 4.9%)
09/17/02       72,522     75,815    (3,293) ( 2.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/27/02       10,156     8,040     2,116    11.6%
09/03/02       11,150     7,720     3,430    18.2%
09/10/02       14,024    10,494     3,530    14.4%
09/17/02       15,288    14,142     1,146     3.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials increased their long positions by 4,000 contracts, 
while increasing shorts by 7,000.  Small traders increased longs 
by 6,000 contracts, almost doubling the position, while 
increasing shorts by only 1500, or 15%. 


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/27/02       21,023    14,328    6,695      18.9%
09/03/02       21,161    13,792    7,369      21.1%
09/10/02       22,946    14,936    8,010      21.1%
09/17/02       26,863    21,187    5,676      11.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/27/02        6,825     8,438    (1,613)   (10.6%)
09/03/02        6,395     7,966    (1,571)   (10.9%)
09/10/02        7,568    10,129    (2,561)   (14.5%)
09/17/02       13,393    11,637     1756       7.0%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-20-2002
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bearish Play Updates:  MXIM

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bullish Plays:     RMCI
  New Bearish Plays:     WHR
  Bearish Play Updates:  AHC, BDK, C, CI, CUM, DIA, GE, GM, KMB
  Closed Bearish Plays:  AGN, DUK

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:     TSS
                        


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Maxim Integrated - MXIM - cls: 24.20 chg: -0.25 stop: 25.78 *new*

With every session over the past week producing a new multi-year 
low for the SOX.X, many are wondering "how low can it go?!"  
Prior to today's action, the consensus here at the PI office was 
that the index would at least briefly find support at the 250 
level.  Unfortunately for the bulls, this was not the case.  The 
SOX.X closed under 250 and posted a 1.4% loss.  Helping to drive 
the chip sector lower was a Solomon Smith Barney downgrade of 
TXN.  In an encouraging development for this short play, MXIM 
traded up to psychological resistance ($25.00) on an intraday 
basis, only to rollover and tag a new 52-week low.  Shares 
finished in the red by 1.0%.  Additional failed rallies from 
$25.00 could provide fresh entry points, but "bear" in mind that 
we'll be closing this play if MXIM trades at or below $22.06.  
Also note that we've lowered our stop-loss to $25.78, just above 
Wednesday's high.  Those who are willing to give MXIM more 
breathing room could keep stops set at $27.54.  Premier Investor 
is currently up 11.8% in this play.

Picked on September 13th at $27.44
Gain since picked:           +3.24
Earnings Date             11/05/02 (unconfirmed)
 





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Right Mgmt Consultants - RMCI - cls: 25.80 cls: +0.70 stop: 22.99

Company Description:
Right Management Consultants, Inc. is a global consulting firm 
specializing in career transition and organizational consulting 
services.  Right offers services to companies of all sizes 
through a global network of more than 300 service locations and 
the Internet. The company is a worldwide leader in customized 
career transition solutions and also offers a wide range of 
organizational consulting services, including talent management, 
leadership development and organizational performance services. 
In combination, the two lines of business enable Right to help 
businesses manage the entire life cycle of their employees. 
(source: company press release)

Why we like it:
Wow!  When's the last time we actually had a split run to play 
long in this market?  You can't remember?  Well me either.  Lo 
and behold RMCI is looking down right bullish.  The stock peaked 
around $33 back in May but has since put in a pretty convincing 
bottoming pattern.  After trading sideways for a few weeks along 
its 200-dma it appears that investors have decided Right's 
business model might be alright in this economic environment.  
The stock has broken above resistance at $24 and volume is 
actually beginning to rise along with the stock price.  A couple 
of days ago the company announced a 3:2 stock split to take place 
in October.  The record date for shareholders is October 1st and 
the 50% stock dividend will be effective Oct. 15th, 2002.  A week 
later, Oct. 21st, the company will announce its third-quarter 
earnings report at 7:00 am EDT.  RMCI's management reiterated 
their guidance for the full year 2002 with revenues around $450 
million.  

Given the crummy economic conditions it's very possible that 
RMCI's "career transition" services might be in demand for the 
chunk of workers between jobs right now.  Looking at the charts 
we see two significant observations.  First we noticed on the PnF 
chart that RMCI is currently fighting its descending overhead 
bearish resistance line.  This is bad news for bulls.  However, 
on the daily chart the stock, as previously mentioned, is above 
significant resistance of $24 and $25.  This is good news for 
bulls.  Considering the upcoming split we think the stock might 
be able to run to the $30 area.  How do you play this one?  We 
would look for two potential entry points.  If the market 
continues to dip then RMCI might pull back to the $24.50 to 
$25.00 area.  This looks like a decent entry point but try and 
catch it on the bounce back up.  Otherwise, another entry point 
could be a break above the $26 mark.  Looking at the intraday 
chart shows how this level acted as resistance on Friday while 
buyers began to create higher lows (intraday anyway).  The dip 
looks like the best entry but we're going to open the play at 
current levels with a stop loss at $22.99.  This is about 50 
cents below the recent spike down on Tuesday.  We would be remiss 
if we didn't mention that the stock appears to have potential 
resistance at $27.00 and again at $27.50 but we are planning on a 
three-week hold and expect shares to breakthrough these levels.  
We do not plan to hold over the split.

Picked on September 20th at $25.80 
Gain since picked:           +0.00
Earnings Date             10/21/02 (confirmed)





  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Whirlpool Corp. - WHR - close: 48.85 change: +0.05 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Whirlpool Corporation is the world's leading manufacturer and 
marketer of major home appliances. Headquartered in Benton 
Harbor, Michigan, the company manufactures in 13 countries and 
markets products under 11 major brand names in more than 170 
countries. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
In a showdown between two of the world's largest home appliance 
manufacturers, Whirlpool and Maytag recently squared off over a 
patent infringement lawsuit concerning washing machines.  WHR 
charged that MYG had stolen its intellectual property.  Washing 
technology sounds pretty trivial in the grand scheme of things, 
but we're talking big bucks here!  The two companies announced a 
settlement in late-August that effectively ended the litigation 
process.  Although this development did not appear to have a 
substantial impact on either company's bottom lines, it's 
interesting to note that both WHR and MYG have trended lower ever 
since the settlement was reached.  The latter stock has really 
taken it on the chin, with bears dragging the stock to multi-
month lows.  WHR suffered the same fate this week, thus setting 
up what we think is an attractive short play.

Prior to this past week, shareholders of WHR had enjoyed reliable 
support at $50.00.  Thursday's broader market decline sent the 
stock below this level on stronger-than-average volume.  WHR 
drifted slowly lower for the remainder of the week, hinting 
towards more bearishness down the road.  Bears can also be 
encouraged by the recent double-bottom p-n-f sell signal.  So 
just how much downside does this stock have?  Flipping to the 
weekly chart, we see that WHR has broken below its 2001 lows.  
Possible congestion lurks in the $45-$47 range, but we don't 
think nervous investors will may much attention to those levels.  
Continued economic worries are pressuring the broader market and 
cracks are starting to show in the homebuilding sector.  If Wall 
Street has a negative outlook for future growth in the housing 
area, the implicit reduction in business for Whirlpool would 
discourage long-term investors from choosing the stock.

Given the wishy-washy (no pun intended) fundamentals and negative 
technical picture, we think shares could eventually reach the 
$40.00 region.  WHR is a relatively slow-moving stock and it may 
take an entire month to see our objective accomplished.  Traders 
looking for more rapid profits may want to look elsewhere on our 
Play List.  In terms of action points for WHR, we'll activate 
this play on a move under today's low of $48.45.  Our stop will 
be located slightly above Wednesday's high, at $51.11.  More 
aggressive traders may want to use a 10% stop at $53.28.

Picked on September xxth at xx.xx
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            10/15/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amerada Hess Corp - AHC - cls: 66.35 chg: +0.46 stop: 70.01

Despite media attention to Bush's saber rattling over Iraq it 
appears all is quiet on the oil front this Friday.  Shares of AHC 
trade in a very narrow range while the price of crude actually 
trade slightly higher intraday near $30 a barrel before closing 
unchanged.  The entire sector continues to look weak.  New plays 
might be considered on a break below $66 to $65 depending on your 
risk tolerance or a failed rally at $68.  It wouldn't surprise us 
to see the $65 level offer a little support but given the trend 
we don't think it will hold.  If you're not sure on the rationale 
behind this play, we would encourage you to check out the 
original write up on 9/17/02.  

Picked on September 17th at $68.02
Results since picked:        +1.67
Earnings Date             07/24/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Black & Decker - BDK - close: 41.48 change: +0.77 stop: 44.33

Like many issues in Friday's session shares of BDK trading in a 
relatively narrow range.  Shares did closer higher but this could 
have been a little bit of short-covering before the weekend.  
Considering the stock's drop from $46 to almost $40 recently a 
small bounce is not out of the question.  Traders looking for 
potential new entry points for bearish plays on BDK might 
consider the following.  A failed rally at $43 would look 
tempting but look for the signs that it is failing.  Another 
potential entry would be a move below the $40.65 level or even 
the $40 mark.  

Picked on September 18th at $41.69 
Results since picked:        +0.21
Earnings Date             10/22/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Citigroup Inc - C - close: 26.83 change: -0.82 stop: 28.61

Shares of Citigroup fell another 2.96% on Friday as the financial 
sector continued to slip lower heading into the weekend.  What 
makes Friday's decline interesting for traders was the very 
strong volume of 43.6 million shares.  Investors are fleeing 
stocks that they see still have risks and the negative publicity 
for Citigroup just won't stop.  Late Thursday news came out that 
the company would pay a record penalty of $240 million to the FTC 
for its predatory lending practices.  This was a settlement after 
a class action suit was pursued due to Citigroup subsidiaries 
allegedly gouging the poor with abusive lending practices.  The 
company is also suffering from the story that won't go away - the 
Jack Grubman story.  Jack Grubman is the Salomon Smith Barney 
analyst (SSB is owned by C) who is famous for his bullish calls 
on WCOM, Winstar Communications and other stocks while their 
share prices where falling.  The NASD is preparing to file 
securities fraud charges against the analyst due to evidence that 
Jack potentially misled investors with his bullish calls despite 
signs that the company (Winstar) was in trouble.  While it looks 
like Jack is going to cooperate with the NASD to avoid jail time 
he could end up forking over some personal assets in the plea 
bargaining.  Lest you feel sorry for the guy, Grubman walked away 
with a $32.2 million severance package from Salomon after years 
of being a high-paid analyst.  Jumping back to our play on 
Citigroup, new positions should be entered carefully.  It looks 
like C is heading for our short-term target of $25.00 but any 
pre-Fed meeting bounce could have the stock trading back towards 
$28.  A failed rally at $28 would obviously be the more 
attractive entry to go short.  Use caution when the market opens 
on Monday.

Picked on September 19th at $27.65
Results since picked:        +0.82
Earnings Date             10/16/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Cigna Corp. - CI - close: 72.77 change: -2.54 stop: 76.52

That didn't take long.  We profiled CI as a short play on 
Thursday and Friday's drop took shares right through our entry 
point to go short (74.98).  The whole insurance group is looking 
pretty weak and we may be pre-mature with our profit target of 
$70.  Despite our thoughts that shares of CI could fall below the 
$70 mark we'll keep our official exit price at $70.06 for now.  
More aggressive traders might want to consider targeting the $65 
level as we suggested on Thursday.  New entries are a bit tricky 
at this point since we're relatively close to our exit already.  
Any bounce and failed rally at the $75 mark would be the entry to 
go short again.  Those already in the play can be encouraged by 
the strong volume of 1.1 million shares trading on Friday.

Picked on September 20th at 74.98
Results since picked:       +2.21
Earnings Date            11/01/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Cummins Inc - CUM - close: 24.63 change: +0.04 stop: 26.76 

Considering the severity of the recent sell-off in CUM, some 
sideways consolidation action could be expected.  To quote last 
night's update: "...remember that nothing moves in a straight 
line and CUM is due for a bounce despite the negative price 
action."  That's what shareholders got today when the stock 
posted a 4-cent gain.  This roughly mirrored the indecisive, 
directionless action on the Dow Jones.  If the broader market 
continues higher on Monday it would not be surprising to see 
shares trade up to psychological resistance at $25.00.  A failed 
rally at this level might provide an opportunity for traders to 
open new short positions.  Technically, bears can be encouraged 
by the fact that CUM fell to a new multi-year low on Friday.  
This is a sign that the bears are still in control.  Further 
weakness next weak could send CUM tumbling towards $22.50.  We'll 
set an official exit price for this play if/when the stock 
approaches that level.

Picked on September 17th at $26.99 
Results since picked:        +2.36
Earnings Date             10/10/02 (unconfirmed)
 


---

Diamonds Trust - DIA - cls: 79.67 chg: +0.22 stop: 83.01

Wow!  We're pleasantly surprised that the Dow Jones Industrials 
could not close above the 8K mark before Friday's close.  Many 
believed that there should have been some short covering as we 
headed into the weekend, especially with the FOMC meeting on 
Tuesday.  While the majority of the session was spent trading 
sideways there seemed to be no fear by the bears and no life from 
the bulls.  We still expect a potential bounce Monday even though 
the index closed under 8000 two days in a row and no one really 
expects the Fed to cut rates again.  If the Diamonds remain below 
80 it may be an entry point for new plays but you might consider 
using a tighter stop than the one we have listed.  

Picked on September 18th at $81.41
Change since picked:         +1.74
Earnings Date                  N/A
 



---

General Electric - GE - cls: 26.75 chg: +0.20 stop: 29.01

Compared to the recent action in the Dow Jones, Friday's trading 
was downright tame.  The index moved in a narrow 95-point range.  
All the bulls could muster was a 0.54% gain - Not exactly an 
enthusiastic reversal of yesterday's sell-off.  Overall it seemed 
that traders were unwilling to place any large bets ahead of the 
weekend and the FOMC meeting on Tuesday.  With no fresh news to 
drive the stock, Dow component GE roughly traded in tandem with 
the Industrials.  Shares finished 20 cents to the good and 
remained well under yesterday's high.  Volume was unusually high, 
but this was probably due to the fact that September options 
expired today.  In a positive sign for this play, GE did reach a 
new relative low of $26.02.  Although our stop-loss remains set 
at $29.01, very conservative traders should use a stop just above 
the $28.00 mark.  New entries can be targeted on a move below 
$26.00.

Picked on September 13th at $27.65 
Results since picked:        +0.90
Earnings Date             07/12/02 (confirmed)




---

General Motors - GM - cls: 42.93 chg: +0.48 stop: 45.01

Shares of Ford Motor hit a new multi-year low today after Merrill 
Lynch cut its 12-month price target on the stock.  The brokerage 
said GM's aggressive price-cutting approach and new line of 
trucks could pressure F's bottom line.  Although the latest price 
wars do appear to be having a negative impact on Ford, it remains 
to be seen whether General Motors will really emerge victorious.  
After all, what good are gains in market share if profit-margins 
are constantly being reduced?  Wall Street may also be concerned 
with the prospects for continued growth in the automotive sector 
in a highly uncertain economic climate.  Shortly before the 
market closed today, the head of Canada's auto workers union said 
he anticipates "solid support" for the latest offer from General 
Motors, thus decreasing the likelihood of a strike.  GM stock 
traded flat on this news finished the day with a 1.1% gain.  
Technical bears can be pleased with the fact that shares 
maintained the recent pattern of lower highs.  Next week we'll be 
looking for GM to break the $42.00 level and move towards the 
next level of psychological support at $40.00. 

Picked on September 16th at $43.89 
Results since picked:        +0.96
Earnings Date             10/15/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Kimberly Clark - KMB - close: 57.50 change: +0.49 stop: 58.63

Wouldn't you know it...on a day where the $FPP.X forest and paper 
products index has a 2.9% gain we get triggered in our short for 
KMB.  Actually the good news, despite being triggered when shares 
of KMB traded below our trigger price of 56.85, was the relative 
weakness in the stock.  Almost every component of the FPP index 
was higher today.  KMB is not a component of the index but its 
sector mates all closed with 2%, 3% to 5% gains on the day.  We 
couldn't identify what the positive news was.  The only thing 
relevant appeared to be BOW posted a wider third quarter loss 
than expected.  This is good news?  No, we didn't listen to any 
post-earnings call for BOW so they could have said something 
positive despite the numbers.  We are turning cautious on KMB 
given the bounce in the group.  New positions should only be 
considered if the stock trades back under today's low.  We repeat 
- this does not look like an entry point even though KMB could 
not break the $58 barrier today.  If you're feeling aggressive 
try and use some caution!

Picked on September 20th at 56.85
Results since picked:       -0.65
Earnings Date            10/22/02 (unconfirmed)
 





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  -------------------- 

Allergan - AGN - close: 49.85 change: -2.19 stop: 54.01

With the broader market trading in a directionless fashion on 
Friday and the DRG.X pharmaceutical index remaining above the 
relative low, more sideways action could've been expected in AGN.  
But lo and behold, the bears came out in full force this morning!  
AGN was hit with heavy selling during the first third of the 
trading day and reached our $50.00 profit-target just before 
noon.  Our paper trade was closed for a gain of $4.69, or 8.5%.  
Near as we can tell, today's sell-off was not triggered by any 
specific news event.  The fact that shares gravitated towards the 
$50.00 level on expiration Friday suggests that the institutional 
big boys may have been pushing the stock around to get more 
favorable results from option trades.  Whatever the reason, we're 
more than happy with the results.  Traders who elected to 
maintain short positions in AGN should be tightening stops while 
looking for a break under the July low of $49.50.  Today's close 
below $50.00 is not a good sign for the bulls.

Picked on September 11th at $54.69
Results since picked:        +4.69
Earnings Date             10/24/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Duke Energy - DUK - close: 20.40 change: -1.02 stop: 23.26

In last night's update we talked about the fundamental weakness 
that was implied by the recent round of layoffs at Duke.  These 
cost-cutting efforts make more sense after today's earnings 
warning.  The company said this morning that it only expected to 
earn $1.95-$2.05/share in 2002.  Previous estimates were in the 
$2.45-$2.55 range.  The company also said earnings may decline in 
2003.  Ouch!  Shares gapped sharply lower on this news and traded 
an intraday low of $18.73.  Congratulations are in order for 
nimble traders who were able to take profits near this level.  
The stock moved higher for most of the session, despite brokerage 
downgrades and talk of a credit rating reduction from Moody's.  
DUK managed to climb back above the $20.00 before the final bell.  
Although shares could easily turn around and retest today's lows, 
we've chosen to close this play as of the final tick on Friday 
($20.40).  This is a 14.0% gain from where we initiated our 
hypothetical trade.  Although we've already reached our objective 
in DUK, there are plenty of other potential shorts in the utility 
sector.  Check out ED, DTE, and TXU, to name a few!

Picked on September 11th at $23.74 
Results since picked:        +3.34
Earnings                  10/15/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Total System Services - TSS - cls: 14.63 chg: -0.42 stop: *text*

Company Description:
TSYS brings integrity and innovation to the world of electronic 
payment services as the integral link between buyers and sellers 
in this rapidly evolving universe. (source: company press 
release)


Why We Like It:
A scan of the recent news listings for TSS is somewhat bare, save 
for a slew of downgrades in July and August.  Wall Street just 
does not seem to like this stock.  Shares topped out near $30.00 
in March and have since lost more than half their value.  Lately 
it's been getting even worse.  The stock accelerated to the 
downside this week when a catastrophic earnings warning from EDS 
brought the IT bears out in force.  Today's action saw 
significant technical damage after TSS fell below critical short-
term support at $15.00 and dropped to levels not seen since 1999.  
This breakdown created a triple-bottom breakdown on the point-
and-figure chart.  According to p-n-f guru Tom Dorsey, this 
pattern leads to an average gain of 23.0% over 3.4 months, and is 
profitable 93.5% of the time.  Although these breakdowns 
sometimes turn out to be "bear traps" that are followed by a 
rapid short-covering rebound, daily evidence of fundamental 
weakness in the tech sector is likely to keep the lid on any 
potential rally.  Things could really start to get ugly if the 
NASDAQ breaks under its multi-year low of 1192.

Insofar as this play is concerned, we will initiate our paper 
trade if TSS falls below today's low of $14.50.  If we're 
triggered we'll use a stop at $15.56, just above Thursday's high.  
Bulls will argue that possible historical support could emerge at 
$14.00.  That may indeed be the case, but we believe the recent 
downward momentum will take shares below that level.  
Conservative traders might want to wait for TSS to actually move 
under $14.00 before entering short positions.  Our profit-target 
will be $12.09, just above the 1997 lows.  Longer-term traders 
could look for a decline to the $10.00 region.

Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <- see text 
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             07/16/02 (confirmed)
 





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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 09-20-2002
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of September 23rd
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


==================================================
Market Watch for the week of September 23rd
==================================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

SCS    Steelcase             Mon, Sep 23  After the Bell     -0.03


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

GS     Goldman Sachs         Tue, Sep 24  Before the Bell     0.99
LEH    Lehman Brothers       Tue, Sep 24  Before the Bell     0.87
RAD    Rite Aid Corporation  Tue, Sep 24  -----N/A-----      -0.13
WOS    WOLSELEY              Tue, Sep 24  Before the Bell      N/A


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

AZO    AutoZone              Wed, Sep 25  Before the Bell     1.41
BBBY   Bed Bath&Beyond       Wed, Sep 25  After the Bell      0.23
STZ    Constellation         Wed, Sep 25  After the Bell      0.53
MKC    McCormick & Co        Wed, Sep 25  Before the Bell     0.25


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

AM     American Greetings    Thu, Sep 26  Before the Bell    -0.27
COGN   Cognos                Thu, Sep 26  After the Bell      0.14
GUC    Gucci Group NV        Thu, Sep 26  -----N/A-----       0.60
SLR    Solectron             Thu, Sep 26  After the Bell     -0.04


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

None


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

FBP     First Bancorp             3:2      Sep 27      Sep 30


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

The headline economic event this week will be the FOMC meeting 
on Tuesday.  Currently there is almost zero expectation for 
the Fed to cut rates again.  Given all the talk about a 
potential housing bubble the two home sales reports might 
merit watching.  Keep an eye on the Sentiment report that 
comes out on Friday.

==============================================================
                       -For-           

Monday, 09/23/02
----------------
Leading Indicators (DM)      Forecast:  -0.1%  Previous:    -0.4%


Tuesday, 09/24/02
-----------------
Consumer Confidence (DM)Sep  Forecast:   95.0  Previous:     93.5
FOMC Meeting (DM)


Wednesday, 09/25/02
-------------------
Existing Home Sales (DM)Aug  Forecast:  5.35M  Previous:    5.33M


Thursday, 09/26/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   09/21  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:      N/A
Durable Orders (BB)     Aug  Forecast:  -1.8%  Previous:     9.2%
New Home Sales (DM)     Aug  Forecast:   990K  Previous:   1.017M
Help-Wanted Index (DM)  Aug  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:       44
FOMC Minutes (DM)     08/13


Friday, 09/27/02
----------------
GDP-Final (BB)           Q2  Forecast:   1.2%  Previous:     1.1%
Chain Deflator-Final (BB)Q2  Forecast:   1.1%  Previous:     1.1%
Mich Sentiment-Rev. (DM)Sep  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:     86.2


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available



==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

COL     Rockwell Collins Inc       21.98     +0.56
RMCI    Right Mgmt Consultants     25.80     +0.70
UTLE    Ultimate Electronics       13.91     +0.87

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AMLN    Amylin Pharmaceuticals     13.90     +1.50

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ABT     Abbott Labs                41.80     +1.70
MDP     Meredith Corp              44.63     +2.39

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MO      Phillip Morris             42.69     -2.01
FNM     Fannie Mae                 64.60     -1.90
WYE     Wyeth                      36.58     -1.07
FDC     First Data Corp            28.96     -2.13
DUK     Duke Energy Corp           20.40     -1.02
TXU     TXU Corp                   41.00     -1.70
LTR     Loews Corp                 45.97     -1.58
HRB     H&R Block                  45.50     -2.94
GUC     Gucci Group                84.25     -2.24
AEP     American Electric Power    27.88     -1.37
MBI     MBIA Inc                   40.23     -2.52
ABK     Ambac Financial Group      51.08     -2.72
RJR     RJ Reynolds                47.22     -3.23
RDN     Radian Group               32.90     -1.17

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MGG     MGM Mirage Inc             35.12      -1.23




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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
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Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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