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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 09/23/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Monday 09-23-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Tumbling Down the Stairs
Watch List:       AEP, APOL, BGEN, DB, DPMI, YHOO, and more...
Play of the Day:  Detecting a Bounce


******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
09-23-2002                High    Low     Volume Advance/Decl
DJIA     7872.15 - 113.87 7984.77 7788.42  1592 mln   330/1250
NASDAQ   1184.93 -  36.16 1209.72 1177.41  1432 mln   228/1195
S&P 100   417.38 -  6.52  423.90  412.92   totals     558/2445
S&P 500   833.70 - 11.69  845.39  825.76
RUS 2000  358.68 -  8.60  367.28  356.73
DJ TRANS 2134.53 - 49.49 2185.12  2126.45
VIX        44.71 +  0.16   46.46  43.93
VIXN       59.85 +  0.77   61.46  57.65
Put/Call Ratio 0.88
******************************************************************


===========
Market Wrap
===========

Tumbling Down the Stairs

by Steven Price

We're bound to get good news from the market at some point, but
faith in the most likely source seems to be fading.  The Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC), led by Chairman Alan Greenspan,
meets on Tuesday.  It is at these meetings that interest rate
decisions are generally made. The Dow tanked today, ahead of that
meeting, indicating that investors are not confident in the
possibility of a rate cut.

Without the indication of a rate cut, investors were left to
digest this morning's economic data, which brought more bad news.
The index of leading economic indicators dropped 0.2% in August.
This followed a 0.1% drop in July and exceeded analysts'
expectations of a 0.1% drop. This is the third month in a row
that the leading index has declined. Industrial production
declined for the first time this year and the Coincident Index
indicates a weak economic recovery.  Seven of the ten indicators
were negative.  These negative indicators, from the largest
negative contributor to the smallest, were interest rate spread,
average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, vendor
performance, manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital
goods, building permits, manufacturers' new orders for consumer
goods and materials, and index of consumer expectations.  The
positive indicators, in the same order, were real money supply,
average weekly manufacturing hours, and stock prices.  Given the
fact that the stock market has given back 80% of its gains from
July 24 through August 22, we can discount the last positive
indicator. The economy is still growing, but the Conference
Board, which tracks the indicators, said that there is a
heightened risk of a slowdown.  A separate report also indicated
that help-wanted ads were down in July for the third straight
month.

It certainly looks as though we will be re-testing the July lows
in the Dow.  A look at the intraday charts for the last few days
shows resistance being put in place at successively lower levels
each day.  Today's rebound attempt was stopped and turned back at
7900, after 8000 served the same purpose on Friday.

Chart of the Dow



The Nasdaq traded below the July low of 1192 today, closing at
1184.93, establishing a new 6 year low.  Going back to July 1996,
1000 seems to be the next likely downside target.  The level was
tested several times as the Nasdaq began its ascent to 5132.52 in
March of 2000.  However, we have not yet seen this level tested
in a downward trending market.  A level that once proved
resilient as companies grew, may not be so resilient as business
contracts.

Chart of the Nasdaq


If nothing else, the recent drop has reaffirmed the bearish
nature of a head and shoulders neckline break, which occurred in
all of the major indices. A look at the Dow and Nasdaq breakdowns
shows the acceleration downward after the break.  We can also
attempt to estimate the potential for the current drop by using
the distance from the neckline to the top of the head, and
projecting downward for the measuring objective of the drop.
This objective is used as an eventual target, rather than a
prediction that the current down move will head straight for
these levels without any sort of bounce.  Because necklines can
be drawn from different points, the targets are subject to
individual interpretation, but these are the targets I see from
the graphs below.  The Dow shows a downward objective just below
7200, while the Nasdaq has an objective just under 1050, which
coincides closely with the 1000 support level identified above.

Chart of Head and Shoulders in the Dow (INDU) and Nasdaq
Composite (COMPX)



While we may see some bounce in the markets, we keep receiving
negative news across several sectors.  This morning, Wal-Mart
once again guided toward the low end of its growth range for the
month. Target also announced same store sales were below
expectations for last week, and were running below plan for the
month-to-date.  Wal-Mart came in below expectations the last two
months, following similar predictions.  Wal-Mart typically
predicts 4%-6% growth, and has warned that sales would be at the
low end of the range, after saying just last week that sales were
on track.  Federated, which owns Bloomingdale's and Macy's, said
that same store sales would be "at best" toward the low end of
its 3%-5% increase guidance.  This may be foreshadowing another
downturn in consumer spending. Wal-Mart is generally considered a
good measure, since it carries products across a wide range of
categories and provides a low cost alternative.  The fact that
both Wal-Mart, at the low end of the pricing scale, and
Federated, toward the upper end, are both lowering forecasts,
seems to indicate consumers at all levels are cutting back.

Further evidence of this reduced spending came from Maytag, which
after the bell warned that third-quarter earnings would fall shy
of expectations. This is partially attributed to sluggish sales
of appliances and lower production rates.  Office furniture maker
Steelcase (SCS) also missed expectations by 0.02 per share.

Money continues to flow out of mutual funds. Investors withdrew
$5.8 billion in the month of August, following a record drain of
$53 billion in July.  While this may seem like an improvement, it
was the first time in 14 years that stock funds saw money flow
out in a month in which the stock market was up.  This lack of
investor confidence shows that any rebound will be fighting an
uphill battle.  In what looks like a vicious cycle, if investors
are pulling money out of mutual funds when the market goes up,
then one of the biggest sources of buying power is losing
strength, even when other sources are getting back in.

The tech sector saw more downgrades this morning.  Deutsche Bank
and Bank of America issued bearish commentary, highlighting the
weak demand for computer production equipment and manufacturing
services needed to build the latest high-tech products. Credit
Suisse First Boston cut its estimates for several chip equipment
makers, including Applied materials (AMT), KLA-Tencor (KLAC) and
Novellus (NVLS).  Barrington Research reported that equipment
orders have been weakening after seeing seven months of previous
upturn.  Orders fell 5% from July to August.  Soundview
Technology Group also lowered estimates on several techs,
including Dell (DELL), Gateway (GTW), Apple (AAPL) and Hewlett
Packard (HPQ).  In addition to these downgrades, JDS Uniphase
also lowered its quarterly sales forecast by as much as 9%, due
to contract cancellations.  All of this news combined to send the
Semiconductor Sector to not only new 52-week lows, but also a new
4-year low of 236.19. The index has now lost 35% of its value in
the last month, since it traded up to 363.03 on August 20, during
last month's rally.  After the bell, Palm beat earnings estimates
by a penny, but missed revenue targets, and lowered revenue
expectations for next quarter.

Apparently the financial community is beginning to feel the heat,
as a report in the Wall Street Journal indicated that Lehman
Brothers would be laying off 10% of its staff. Goldman Sachs may
be laying off 10-15% of its investment banking staff, as well,
according to the New York Post. With fewer mergers and
acquisitions, and a virtual halt in IPOs, many of these
investment bankers simply aren't needed anymore.

As reports have surfaced that Iraq will not be giving
unconditional access to weapons inspectors and will not accept
any new revisions to the 1999 U.N. resolution.  U.N. Secretary-
General Kofi Annan said that inspectors from the U.N. Monitoring,
Verification and Inspections Commission would be bound by a new
resolution and so should Iraq.  It sounds like Saddam is already
playing games with the new inspections and the oil futures seem
to agree. December Crude Oil Futures (CL02Z) broke above $30 a
barrel today, to close at $30.50.

The fuel pinch appears to be making its way to the airline
industry.  The major airlines are seeking additional help from
Congress, to help with the increased cost of security and
insurance, as well as to deal with higher fuel costs.  There have
been analyst warnings that this year's losses could exceed last
year's, which amounted to a staggering $7.7 billion. According to
Delta Chief Executive Leo Mullin, "Revenue is not coming back...
It's not a pretty picture."

On the positive side, Black and Decker (BDK) came out and
reaffirmed earnings guidance and Tenet Healthcare (THC) raised
its guidance, exceeding previous forecasts by 0.05 per share. One
other interesting note that may be foreshadowing a bounce in the
near future is the fact that the Market Volatility Index (VIX.X)
only increased by 0.16 on a triple-digit down day in the Dow.
Volatility generally increases by a larger percentage on drops.
This indicates to me that firms may have been selling volatility
(option premium) as it tried to increase. This does not usually
occur prior to big drops.  While it is not a specific indicator,
and could simply be due to the end of day rally, it does arouse
suspicion.  The put/call ratio also decreased from 1.16 to 0.88,
demonstrating a return to more calls trading than puts.

I usually try to present both sides of the market, however today
it was awfully tough to find a silver lining.  The fact that the
Dow rebounded strongly from today's low of 7788.42 to close at
7872.15 could be seen as a positive, but this bear is looking
harder at the resistance at a lower level of 7900.  With the Fed
getting together tomorrow, we could see another sell-off if rates
are left unchanged, as expected.  The bond market has actually
done most of the work for the FOMC, with mortgage rates
continuing to seek out new lows.  With the economy still growing,
albeit at a snail's pace, it is unlikely the Fed will use up its
few possible remaining rate cuts, unless absolutely necessary.
The Fed Funds rate stands at 1.75%, and that does not leave much
room for action, if and when it is needed more than now. Expect
the rate to remain unchanged, and the easing bias to remain in
place, as well.  As we approach the July low, we are likely to
experience a "dead cat bounce" at some point.  However, given the
height of the fall, even a dead cat may bounce a few hundred Dow
points.  I wouldn't be closing short positions just yet, as we
still have some room to the downside, but a tight stop on your
positions should serve to lock in profits when we finally do
bounce.  That bounce may simply provide additional short
opportunities on a rollover, until we get some good news from the
economy.  And from the looks of things, it could be a while.

Steven Price



==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

American Electric Power - AEP - close: 26.62 change: -1.26

WHAT TO WATCH: We're still kicking ourselves for dropping AEP as
a short play last week.  The stock had shown some relative
strength and seemed to be gravitating towards the $30.00 level,
but that all changed after the earnings warning from DUK.  AEP
sold off on that news and continued lower today with a 4.5% loss.
Today's bearishness came on the heels of a downgrade from J.P.
Morgan, who cut its rating and earnings estimates.  Further
negativity was provided by C.S. First Boston, who cut AEP's 12-
month price target.  Technically, the stock looks like it could
retest the July lows near $23.00.  Short-term traders can
evaluate short entries on a move below $25.89.  Those looking for
more bearish confirmation could wait for a breakdown below
psychological support at $25.00.




---

Apollo Group - APOL - close: 42.87 change: +0.38

WHAT TO WATCH: Adult education providers may be better positioned
than most businesses to weather economic weakness.  With the job
market remaining difficult, many have chosen to go back to school
in order to make themselves more attractive to potential
employers.  If the multi-year uptrend in APOL is any indication,
the fundamentals must be looking pretty good.  The technical
picture is looking strong as well.  Shares have shown excellent
relative strength over the past month and are holding firm near
all-time highs.  APOL finished in the green today, despite a 36-
point decline on the NASDAQ.  The stock looks poised to break to
new highs if the broader market shakes off its current funk.
Watch for a move above $44.00 to clear the way for a rally to the
$50.00 level.  The current bullish count on the p-n-f chart is
$58.00.




---

Biogen Inc. - BGEN - close: 29.39 change: -1.55

WHAT TO WATCH: With sector leader AMGN leading the decline on
Monday, the biotech index posted a loss of 4.0%.  The BTK.X has
fallen below its August lows and looks like it may revisit the
280 level.  Further sector weakness could lead to a dramatic
sell-off in BGEN.  The stock has just broken below its $30.00
support level and is now trading at multi-year lows.  This
breakdown, combined with the recent triple-bottom point-and-
figure sell signal, suggests that shares could soon test the next
level of psychological support at $25.00.  Short entries can be
targeted on a move below today's low ($28.80) or a rollover from
the $30.00 area.  Other possible bearish plays in the biotech
group include AMGN, CHIR, IDPH, and BBH.




---

Deutsche Bank - DB - close: 49.20 change: -2.80

WHAT TO WATCH: The German DAX suffered a decline of nearly 5% on
Monday.  European markets were shaken by the results of this
weekend's German elections, in which incumbent Gerhard Schroder
narrowly defeated his conservative challenger.  It appears as if
the Social Democrat/Green coalition will remain in power by a
very small margin.  This is not good news for German business.
Recent years have seen the nation's economy go down the tubes
amidst half-hearted reforms and increasing regulation.  Although
the divided parliament may make it more difficult to implement
ill-advised socialist programs, the ruling government will almost
certainly not allow pro-business reforms such as tax cuts.
Shares of DB traded lower by 5.3% on these developments.  The
stock has broken below psychological support at $50.00 and may be
headed for the $45.00 level.  Traders looking to open short
positions should watch for another failed rally at $50.00 or a
break under today's low of $48.43.




---

DuPont Photomasks - DPMI - close: 20.38 change: -1.88

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of DMPI were hammered for a 8.4% loss today
after the company was targeted by a downgrade from C.S. First
Boston.  The brokerage cut its investment outlook on DuPont and
13 other chip equipment makers, based on a weakened capital
spending climate.  Although shares already look overextended,
DPMI may give aggressive traders an action point if it breaks
below $20.00.  The strong volume behind today's sell-off and
double-bottom point-and-figure sell signal are signs that DPMI
might eventually retest its all-time low of $16.87.  Shorter-term
traders could target a decline to the $18.00 level.




---

Mercury Interactive - MERQ - close: 19.76 change: -0.89

WHAT TO WATCH: The GSO.X software index fell to an all-time low
on Monday.  Sector bulls didn't really have a chance, with MSFT
dropping by 4.6%.  The tech giant remains stuck in its descending
channel and looks like it may retest its July lows.  This overall
software negativity had MERQ falling below whole-number support
at $20.00.  Shares appear to be headed for a test of the
September lows near $18.00.  This might provide a profit-target
for short-term traders, but further sector weakness could drag
MERQ down to the $15.00 region.  Entry points can be evaluated on
a break under today's low ($19.30) or another rollover from
$20.00.




---

Semiconductor HOLDRS - SMH - close: 19.15 change: -1.04

WHAT TO WATCH: Lately it seems like nary a day goes by without a
large brokerage downgrade in the chip sector.  C.S. First Boston
provided fresh negativity with today's comments regarding the
semiconductor equipment group.  A lowered 2003 capex outlook had
the firm cutting estimates on several companies, including AMAT,
KLAC, and NVLS.  This led to a new multi-year low for the SOX.X.
As oversold as the index already is, the bears seem intent on
forcing a test of crucial support in the 200 region.  Should this
be the case, the SMH would offer a good short trade.  Since
topping out near $50.00 in March, the stock has traded in a
descending channel.  The bottom of that channel coincides with
psychological support at the $15.00 level.  This provides a
profit-target for bearish traders.  Short positions could be
considered on a failed rally at $20.00 or a move below today's
low ($19.00).  Technically, bears can be encouraged by the
double-bottom p-n-f breakdown and fresh violation of round-number
support at $20.00.




---

Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 9.08 change: -0.67

WHAT TO WATCH: YHOO might seem pretty cheap at nine bucks, but
shares could be discounted even more heavily if the NASDAQ
continues to decline.  The stock is resting at near-term support.
A break under the $9.00 level would open the door for a retest of
the September lows near $8.00.  That's a downside move of roughly
11%.  Technically, bears can be encouraged by the strong volume
behind today's 6.8% decline.  The point-and-figure chart is
looking weak as well, with YHOO currently displaying a descending
triple-bottom breakdown.





=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BULLISH tech play)
=========================

InVision Technologies - INVN - cls: 31.70 chg: +0.85 stop: *text*

Company Description:
InVision Technologies develops, manufactures, markets and
supports explosive detection systems based on advanced Computed
Tomography (CT) technology for civil aviation security. (source:
company press release)

Why We Like It:
INVN has been trading in an uptrending regression channel since
May.  Last week the stock was threatening to break above that
channel, but shares were quickly smacked back down after Wall
Street reacted negatively to news out of Washington.  A Senate
panel voted on Thursday to extend the deadline for screening all
checked luggage with bomb-detection equipment by one year at as
many as 40 airports.  Investors seemed to believe that the delay
would lead to a reduction in demand for InVision's screening
systems.  However, the Company said on Friday that the extension
would have no impact on delivery schedules or current orders, and
the additional time might actually be a boon for its CTX 9000
product.

A delayed reaction to these comments sent INVN higher by 2.7% on
Monday.  That's a pretty impressive gain, when compared to the
NASDAQ's 2.9% decline.  It looks like last week's sell-off was
overdone.  Technically, some selling pressure could've been
expected.  Previously the stock was falling from the top of its
channel with bearish daily stochastics.  Now that INVN has
rebounded from the channel's lower band, it looks like the
longer-term uptrend will resume.  Bulls can also be pleased with
the recent bounce from the 50-dma ($29.74) and the 200-dma at
$30.87.  Of course, we constantly preach here at Premier Investor
that the direction of the broader market more than often dictates
which way a specific stock moves.  The market looks pretty weak
with the NASDAQ trading at levels not seen since 1996.  However,
over recent months INVN has already shown a pattern of relative
strength.  Unlike other tech stocks that have been taken apart
amid concerns of reduced demand, INVN has a hot product whose use
has effectively been mandated by the U.S. government.  We also
like how the stock offers a good risk/reward ratio.  By entering
this paper trade at current levels, we're hoping to ride INVN up
to the $38.00 region.  If we're triggered our stop will be set at
$29.40, just below last week's low.  Those who are more risk-
averse could use a stop just below the 200-dma.

Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             10/23/02 (unconfirmed)







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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
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Copyright ) 2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Monday 09-23-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bullish Plays:     INVN

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Stop Adjustments:      DIA (bearish)
  Triggered Plays:       WHR (bearish)
  Play Comments:         GM (bearish)
  Closed Bearish Plays:  C

High Risk/Reward
  Triggered Plays:       TSS (bearish)

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

InVision Technologies - INVN - cls: 31.70 chg: +0.85 stop: *text*

Company Description:
InVision Technologies develops, manufactures, markets and
supports explosive detection systems based on advanced Computed
Tomography (CT) technology for civil aviation security. (source:
company press release)

Why We Like It:
INVN has been trading in an uptrending regression channel since
May.  Last week the stock was threatening to break above that
channel, but shares were quickly smacked back down after Wall
Street reacted negatively to news out of Washington.  A Senate
panel voted on Thursday to extend the deadline for screening all
checked luggage with bomb-detection equipment by one year at as
many as 40 airports.  Investors seemed to believe that the delay
would lead to a reduction in demand for InVision's screening
systems.  However, the Company said on Friday that the extension
would have no impact on delivery schedules or current orders, and
the additional time might actually be a boon for its CTX 9000
product.

A delayed reaction to these comments sent INVN higher by 2.7% on
Monday.  That's a pretty impressive gain, when compared to the
NASDAQ's 2.9% decline.  It looks like last week's sell-off was
overdone.  Technically, some selling pressure could've been
expected.  Previously the stock was falling from the top of its
channel with bearish daily stochastics.  Now that INVN has
rebounded from the channel's lower band, it looks like the
longer-term uptrend will resume.  Bulls can also be pleased with
the recent bounce from the 50-dma ($29.74) and the 200-dma at
$30.87.  Of course, we constantly preach here at Premier Investor
that the direction of the broader market more than often dictates
which way a specific stock moves.  The market looks pretty weak
with the NASDAQ trading at levels not seen since 1996.  However,
over recent months INVN has already shown a pattern of relative
strength.  Unlike other tech stocks that have been taken apart
amid concerns of reduced demand, INVN has a hot product whose use
has effectively been mandated by the U.S. government.  We also
like how the stock offers a good risk/reward ratio.  By entering
this paper trade at current levels, we're hoping to ride INVN up
to the $38.00 region.  If we're triggered our stop will be set at
$29.40, just below last week's low.  Those who are more risk-
averse could use a stop just below the 200-dma.

Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             10/23/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

Stop Adjustments
----------------

Diamonds - DIA - close: 78.80 change: -0.87 stop: 81.51 *new*

The Dow Jones traded with a distinctly bearish bias after this
morning's economic data showed that the index of leading economic
indicators fell by 0.2% in August.  Negative comments from the
WMT camp also helped to pressure the index.  At this point a
retest of the July lows seems likely.  However, the bulls may see
today's rebound from the 7800 region as a sign that a short-term
rally could be in the cards.  Should this occur, new entries in
the Diamonds could be gauged on a rollover from the $80.00 level.
To avoid getting caught in a more enthusiastic short-covering
rally we've lowered our stop to $81.51, just above Thursday's
high.  Remember that we'll close this play if DIA trades at or
below $76.26.





Triggered Plays
---------------

Whirpool Corp. - WHR - close: 47.53 change: -1.32 stop: 51.11

With the broader market seeing more weakness on Monday, WHR sank
to new 52-week lows.  This short play was activated within the
first half-hour of trading when shares traded at $48.44.  WHR
underperformed the Dow Jones and finished just 23 cents off the
worst levels of the day.  This bodes well for the bears.  Traders
looking for fresh entries can watch for a rollover from the
$48.00 level (which acted as intraday resistance) or a move under
today's low of $47.30.  *Late-breaking news!*  Maytag announced
this evening that it expects Q3 earnings to miss expectations.
This should weigh heavily on WHR tomorrow, and speed the stock's
decline towards the $40.00 region.  At this time we're going to
set an official profit-target at $40.51.  We'll close this play
if WHR trades at or below that level.





Play Comments
-------------

General Motors - GM - close: 41.58 change: -1.35 stop: 45.01

GM sank with the broader market on Monday and set a new relative
low of $41.01.  Shares are quickly approaching this play's
profit-target of $40.51, which would be a 7.7% gain from our
entry point.  However, very short-term traders may want to
consider taking profits at current levels.  The stock looks due
for a bounce and could extend today's rebound from the $41.00.
Although our stop remains set at $45.01, a break-even stop at
43.89 would be entirely reasonable.





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Citigroup Inc - C - close: 27.57 change: +0.74 stop: 28.61

You wouldn't know it by looking at the daily chart but Citigroup
really didn't trade below its July lows today.  Many of you with
charting software probably noticed the intraday low of $24.42,
which would have triggered our exit price of $25.01.  If you
check the time and sales you might find the inserted order around
9:35 a.m. this morning but it would not have been a truly
tradable move for us.  What caused the morning drop and rebound?
Why news that the NASD had fined Salomon Smith Barney for its
misleading research by ex-analyst Jack Grubman.  While many of
you are familiar with the story some of the details are as
follows.  SSB made $24M in investment banking fees for WinStar,
the now defunct telecom company.  Grubman was an outspoken
defender of the company and share price who maintained a $50
price target on the stock despite its death spiral.  Finally, on
April 17th, 2001 Grubman and SSB downgraded their opinion of
WinStar's stock when it closed at 14 cents a share.  The next day
WinStar filed for bankruptcy.  Understandably so investors were
furious with SSB's and Grubman's actions.  What makes the news
today so interesting is that the NASD will proudly tell you it
had fined SSB, okay, more like negotiated with SSB on a $5
million fine for their misconduct.  SSB gets to admit no wrong
doing and the NASD gets to publish headlines about their third
biggest fine.  Of course Wall Street knows that this looks like a
slap on the wrist, especially compared to the $100M fine that
Merrill had to pay for a similar case involving their star
analyst Henry Blodgett.  Now that at least some of the bad news
clouding over Citigroup is out the stock could rebound and we're
going to close the play now before it gets away from us.  The
stock is still in a downtrend and a failed rally at the $30 level
might have us looking for a new entry point - assuming it can
break overhead resistance at $29.00.  Don't forget that just
because the government has done with this one particular case the
private sector will likely have plenty of class action suits and
the fine by the SEC is clear evidence of misleading conduct by
SSB.

Picked on September 19th at $27.65
Results since picked:        +0.08
Earnings Date             10/16/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

Triggered Plays
---------------

Total System Services - close: 14.13 change: -0.50 stop: 15.56

This short play was triggered on Monday morning at $14.49.  TSS
saw little buying interest throughout the session and
(contrasting the broader market) actually declined during the
final two hours of trading.  Whole-number and historical support
at $14.00 halted the decline, but the strong volume behind
today's decline indicates that shares will continue to new 52-
week lows.  New bearish positions can be gauged on a move under
$14.00.  Remember that our stop is set at $15.56.






=================
  Trading Ideas
=================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

ECA     Encana Corp                29.67     +0.70
BG      Bunge Ltd                  22.60     +1.55

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

STN     Station Casinos Inc        16.99     +1.32
HNR     Harvest Natural Resources   5.29     +0.79

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

DOL     Dole Food Co               28.99     +4.50

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

BCS     Barclays Plc ADR           23.50     -1.80
DB      Deutsche Bank Ag           49.20     -2.80
AEP     American Electric Power    26.62     -1.26
FO      Fortune Brands Inc         48.36     -2.13
LH      Laboratory Corp            31.00     -1.65
JNY     Jones Apparel Group        33.41     -2.89
ZION    Zions Bancorp              43.09     -2.63
NUE     Nucor Corp                 39.57     -9.41
RDN     Radian Group               31.45     -1.45
PNW     Pinnacle West Capital      27.60     -1.40
STZ     Constellation Brands Inc   24.66     -3.75
TOL     Toll Brothers Inc          21.35     -1.65
APH     Amphenol Corp              31.85     -1.14
IEX     Idex Corp                  29.92     -1.88
EME     Emcor Group Inc            47.19     -2.82
DPMI    Dupont Photomask Inc       20.38     -1.89

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

none.




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