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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 09/24/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 09-24-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright © 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Frustrated Fed Heads
Market Sentiment: Are We There Yet?
Play-of-the-Day:  In the Can

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------         
     09-24-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     7683.13 -189.00  7871.23  7666.00 1.99 bln    966/2238
NASDAQ   1182.28 -  2.70  1200.45  1169.04 1.64 bln   1240/2144
S&P 100   410.87 -  6.51   417.99   409.81   Totals   2206/4382 
S&P 500   819.27 - 14.43   833.70   817.38 
RUS 2000  356.58 -  2.10   360.43   355.09 
DJ TRANS 2097.17 - 37.40  2136.26  2246.87   
VIX        45.38 +  0.67    46.77    44.18   
VXN        59.40 -  0.45    62.01    58.25
Total Vol   3,872M
Total UpVol 1,217M
Total DnVol 2,525M
52wk Highs    81 
52wk Lows    916
TRIN        1.73
PUT/CALL    0.86
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Frustrated Fed Heads

The Fed met, argued and dissented but left rates unchanged again. 
The markets anguished over their expected decision all day and 
after it was announced there was still confusion of what to do. 
Despite "risks weighted to the downside" the Fed said the economy
was recovering slowly but they would continue to watch for further
signs of weakening. Thanks guys, it is comforting to know you are
in control. Or are you?

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart



The Fed took the unusual step of listing the names of the two dissenters
in the announcement and many feel this was a weak
attempt to suggest they could cut rates intra-meeting. There is
no meeting in October and the next meeting is Nov 6th. The Fed
still said its posture was accommodative and should be sufficient
to foster an improving business climate. They did caution about
Iraq and the possible impact to the economy. Governor Gramlich
and President McTeer voted for a rate cut. The markets were not
impressed and after several competing buy/sell programs the 
indexes headed to the lows of the day. Those lows for the Dow 
were back to October 1998 levels.

The stock news for today was so plentiful and so bad that I 
hardly know where to start. Cisco CEO John Chambers said last
night that the economic recovery appeared to be receding and 
visibility by their major customers was becoming increasingly
difficult. Translated that means fewer orders and more push 
outs.

Intel rose in early trading after Piper Jaffary and Salomon 
raised estimates for mother boards for September. Ashok Kumar
now sees shipments up +13-14% vs prior estimates of +10%. He felt
the risk of an Intel earnings miss had decreased. This powered 
the SOX all day and allowed it to close up +3.39. This was only
a day after several brokers lowered their chip estimates for
2002 and 2003. Obviously there are several schools of thought
on this topic. NVLS warned last night that orders could be -20%
less than expected for the current quarter. 

Lehman spoiled the pre Fed party early by missing earnings 
estimates of $.85 cents by -15 cents. Trading profits fell from 
$637 million to $234 million. They said the market conditions
from last quarter were getting worse. Weyerhaeuser warned that
economic conditions were going to cause it to miss earnings by
-5 to -10 cents per share. ROH, a specialty chemical maker, 
warned that earnings would miss by four cents. Services company
URS said the economic downturn had eroded city and state budgets
and they would miss estimates by up to -13 cents. Whirlpool 
warned that they would miss estimates on supplier problems and
the reduction of consumer spending on appliances. They said cars
and houses were capturing all the excess money available. I have
been saying that for weeks. 

The two big caps I have been discussing, IBM and GE, were also 
in the news. JPM cut estimates on GE and said they expected them 
to warn that double digit earnings in 2003 was unlikely. GE closed
the day down -.50 at $25.90. JPM cut GE estimates by six cents. 
Morgan Stanley warned that IBM had exposure to its pension plan
and IBM would suffer earnings hits from higher contributions to 
bring the plan into compliance and lower income from investments. 
They also expect IBM's option expense to be 15% of 2001 earnings
and growing. There is an increasing belief that IBM will warn 
within the next week and the stock fell below $60 on the news. 

Consumer Confidence fell for the fourth straight month to 93.3
in September. Although the decline was less than expected the
present situation component fell to 88.5 and the lowest level
since 1994. All of this is relative since most of the survey
was completed before the majority of the current market drop.
The October survey is likely to be significantly lower and could
be the impetus that will cause the Fed to act again. People
planning to buy homes fell to 3.3% from 4.5% last month. Jobs
are seen as increasingly hard to get and business conditions were
seen as getting worse. Maybe the Fed did not see this survey before
making their decision. Respondents planning on buying a car fell
to the lowest level since June-2001. So much for zero financing.

The lack of car buying did not help retailers. The Chain Store
sales index fell to 2.7 from 3.7 last week. This was the worst
reading since April 2002. Were is not for the release of the
Monsters Inc DVD/VHS movie the numbers would have been worse. 
Even the discount stores are seeing red. WMT, TGT and FD all
warned on Monday that sales were under plan again. 

Airlines continued to trend lower on multiple news events about
the health of the industry. There were comments about two new
bankruptcies on the horizon. Over 70,000 workers have been cut
in the last 12 months. 265 planes have been grounded and according
to the AMR CEO the industry has had to take on an additional 
$18 billion in debt to make ends meet. The market loss on airline
stocks has caused a $12 billion deficit in airline pension plans
alone. The push was on in Washington to borrow money but the
representatives appeared ready to let some more companies fail
to eliminate competition and pricing pressure for the survivors.

Oil rose to $31 a barrel and warnings were flying everywhere about
the impact to the consumer and another reduction in retail sales
with gas pumps sucking money out of wallets. Chalk up another
negative for Consumer Confidence in October. 

After the bell Micron posted horrible earnings. They missed 
estimates for a loss of -19 cents with a loss of -97 cents. 
They blamed slowing PC sales, increasing competition and falling
prices for memory chips. They said chip prices had dropped -30%
in the last quarter and they took a huge charge for inventory
write down to current price levels. 

TrimTabs.com warned that all signs pointed to a further market 
drop. They said August saw negative fund outflows and September 
would also. They track buybacks and takeovers and said buybacks 
were running $9 billion a week from June to August but had dropped
to only $1 billion a week over the last four weeks. This drop
in corporate buying indicates that less cash is coming to market,
companies are not confident their stocks will not go lower and
companies are not creating free cash at the same rate as they 
did last quarter. All very negative events for the market. They
said the last time the market outflows were this bad was Oct-1988. 
That is a cheerful thought. 

The Dow closed at a level not seen (on a closing basis) since 
Oct-1st 1998. Now under 7700 a drop to the July intraday lows
of 7532 seems extremely likely. The Dow is on track to post its
worst quarter EVER at -15.7% as of today's close. With all this
negativity you would think the market internals would be off the
scale. Sorry to disappoint you but with the Nasdaq trading in
positive territory most of the day the oversold conditions are
not serious. The sideways movement for the Dow/S&P today relieved
the critical pressure points. The VIX closed up only slightly 
at 45 and the TRIN was only mildly oversold at 1.73. The Put/Call
ratio was actually under 1.0 at .86 for the first time in several
days. 

The internals are not going to stop the drop. However, there are 
significant support levels below us. With the 7532 intraday July
lows only -130 points away we could easily hit that on the open. 
There will probably be considerable program buying in anticipation
of a double bottom in that area. Adding to the close support is
the end of quarter window dressing possibilities for the end of 
the week. Monday is the last day of the quarter and I am torn on
the likelihood of funds buying on Thursday or Monday to dress up
their statements. This assumes they actually have money to spend. 
I doubt Friday would be a buying day with event risk over the
weekend. This means Thursday could be light as well. Traders who
have stock to sell know this pattern and could wait for Monday
to dump their load. 

This brings up the following scenario. With any negative news 
before the open we could see the bids pulled and the July lows
hit in the morning. If double bottom buyers appear then end of
quarter buyers may want to jump in as well to try and get stock
cheap. This could give us an artificial lift through Monday but
after that those same EOQ buyers become BOQ sellers and the October
crash should begin. This is just a possible scenario. Another
scenario making the rounds has a bump at the open on Wednesday
and then a straight dive to levels significantly below 7500 by
next week. About the only thing common in all the available
outlooks is a belief that 7500 will not hold after Monday.  

We only have two of the high performance trading systems left. 
These systems consist of an Intel P4 2.53GHZ PC with 1GB ram, 
80GB disk, DVD drive, CDRW drive, V.92 Modem, 10/100 Lan card, 
500W Subwoofer w/2 speakers, Firewire card, Dual monitor 
GE-Force 440x 64MB video card AND two 20-INCH FLAT PANEL NEC 
monitors. The cost of the system is $3,495 plus shipping.
The monitors alone are worth more than that. 

We advertised ten systems on Sunday and only have two systems 
left. If you are interested click this link for a complete 
description.  <http://www.optioninvestor.com/systemdeal/>

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor


================
Market Sentiment
================

Are We There Yet?
by Steven Price

This morning's consumer confidence numbers came in slightly 
better than expected, however showed a fourth straight monthly 
decline. This number is a measure of consumers' assessment of the 
present economic situation and bleeds over into their spending 
and investing habits.  The index fell from a revised 94.5 reading 
in August, to 93.3 in September.  When consumers are feeling less 
confident in the economy, they generally spend less of their 
disposable income and stay away from the stock market.  
This is bad news for the market, as there has been little 
positive data on the economic front and apparently consumers have 
been paying attention.  

Contained within the report were several details that shed light 
on specific areas.  The number of consumers that felt jobs were 
harder to get rose 1.7%, reflecting the increased pace of 
layoffs. "Weak labor market conditions continue to erode 
confidence," according to the director of the Conference Board's 
research center, which issues the report.  However, there was 
improvement in optimism over current business conditions. The 
report often offers "Alice in Wonderland" type data, such as 
fewer consumers expecting the business environment to improve in 
the next six months, but also fewer consumers expecting the 
business environment to worsen.  Also, the percentage of those 
rating business conditions as "good" increased, but so did the 
percentage of those rating business conditions as "bad."
These responses are combined to form the big number, which in 
this case, showed a decline.

The event most traders were waiting for was the announcement on 
interest rates.  The FOMC left rates unchanged, however, two of 
the twelve governors voted for a reduction of the Fed Funds rate.  
This dissention in the ranks already has traders looking to the 
November 6 meeting for a cut.  While some are speculating it 
could be as much as 50 basis points, there is a lot that can 
happen between now and November 6.  In the explanation for why 
the FOMC left rates unchanged, the statement reads as follows:

"Over time, the current accommodative stance of monetary policy, 
coupled with still robust underlying growth in productivity, 
should be sufficient to foster an improving business climate. 
However, considerable uncertainty persists about the extent and 
timing of the expected pickup in production and employment owing 
in part to the emergence of heightened geopolitical risks."  

However, the committee did leave the easing bias unchanged, 
stating, "Consequently, the Committee believes that, for the 
foreseeable future, against the background of its long-run goals 
of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the 
information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly 
toward conditions that may generate economic weakness."

The Dow has been finding intraday resistance at successively 
lower levels, and today continued that trend.  After fighting 
7800 throughout much of the afternoon,  the  post announcement 
sell-off cracked support at 7700 and stayed there, closing at 
7681.33.  We are now below the July 23 closing low of 7702.34.  
The next test will be the July 24 intraday low of 7532.66.  That 
is less than 150 points away, and could easily be taken out in 
the first hour of trading.  However, if there is going to be a 
bounce, this would seem like a logical point for it to take 
place.  If we don't see a rebound and actually close below that 
7532 level, we could quickly test the downside target of just 
under 7200, based on the head and shoulders pattern that I 
outlined in the OI Market Wrap on Monday.

Remember that on the morning of July 24, we had just set a new 
recent low the day before and the Dow started the day out down 
170 points.  Things looked bleak and the Dow appeared on its way 
to testing the September 1998 low of 7401.  Then we got a 658-
point turnaround by the end of the day.  This was the beginning 
of a rally that ended at 9077 on August 22.  There was not any 
significant change in the business environment, and yet we 
rallied more than 1500 points in less than a month.  it didn't 
make much sense then, but it still happened.  While I've been 
bearish for a while now, I'm starting to get a little nervous 
about my short positions, as we have now re-tested the July 
closing low that was our target over the last month.  

The economic data has been mostly bad and Micron missing earnings 
estimates by a long shot is certainly more bad news for the 
techs. The Nasdaq Composite broke its July intraday low of 1192 
yesterday, closing at 1184.93, and today's drop of only 2.76 
looked as though it might have found a consolidation level, 
especially considering the 189 point drop in the Dow.   We'll see 
how Micron's news affects the index in the morning, but if the 
rebound in the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) is an indication, 
after all of the semiconductor downgrades over the last week, we 
may finally be seeing a level of support.  I am going to be 
playing with very tight stops in the morning, in case we get a 
July 24 repeat.  My guess is that by the end of the day on 
Wednesday, we'll have a good indication where the long-term trend 
is headed.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10679
52-week Low :  7532
Current     :  7683

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8151
 50-dma: 8457
200-dma: 9570

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  775
Current     :  819

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  866
 50-dma:  889
200-dma: 1043

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  843
Current     :  843

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  891
 50-dma:  941
200-dma: 1263


-----------------------------------------------------------------


The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X): Have we found the bottom?  
Today's rebound in the SOX followed a week's worth of downgrades 
that ended the day on Monday with a 35% loss in the index over 
the last month.  Tuesday saw a rebound of 3.39 to close at 
239.58.  The intraday low was just over 230, and the rally came 
in spite of the Dow giving up 189 points and the Nasdaq Composite 
losing only 2.76.  The techs have been plummeting and closed 
below July's lows for the first time on Monday.  With today's 
rebound, we may be seeing signs of a bottom.  Micron Technology 
(MU) missed their earnings estimates after the bell and saw 
estimates lowered for 2003 and 2004 by CSFB. much of micron's 
problems stemmed from lower chip prices.  RF Micro Devices, 
however, raised its expectations for earnings and revenue.  Many 
of the other techs were trading up after hours, so we may have 
found at least a temporary bottom.

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 236
Current     : 239

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 263
 50-dma: 312
200-dma: 469


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX is creeping upward, and seems to be moving slower than it 
should after a 189 point drop in the Dow.  My guess is that 
traders are willing to take a chance that we've found a bottom 
and collect the high premiums from option sales.  At these 
levels, premium decay is high and requires quite a bit of 
movement to justify the price.  The last time we traded at this 
level in the Dow, however, the VIX was over 50, so we could still 
see an increase if the market continues to fall.


CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 45.38 +0.67
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 59.40 -0.45

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.86        548,103       468,973
Equity Only    0.65        430,482       280,406
OEX            0.97         21,796        21,122
QQQ            0.37         52,178        19,530

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          34      - 4     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    21      - 7     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   20      -13     Bull Correction
S&P 500       31      - 8     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       25      -10     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.56
10-Day Arms Index  1.63
21-Day Arms Index  1.51
55-Day Arms Index  1.36

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE        795          1167
NASDAQ     1949          2061

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         32             248
NASDAQ       13             248

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,971
NASDAQ   1,660


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/17/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials Increased long positions by a whopping 50,000 
contracts and shorts by 33,000.  Small traders followed suit with 
large increases, but leaned toward short position increases more 
heavily.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
08/27/02      425,982   469,087   (43,105)   (4.8%)
09/03/02      431,755   468,529   (36,774)   (4.1%)
09/10/02      426,230   470,537   (44,307)   (5.0%)
09/17/02      476,224   503,268   (27,044)   (2.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/27/02      153,152    72,408    80,744     35.8%
09/03/02      158,262    80,130    78,132     32.8%
09/10/02      166,696    85,259    81,437     32.3%
09/17/02      182,243   116,377    64,866     21.7%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Commercials increased long positions by 35% and shorts by 29%.  
Small traders increased longs by only 1,000 contracts, but 
increased short positions by 4,000, or 34%



Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
08/27/02       45,354     50,634    (5,280) ( 5.5%)
09/03/02       46,712     53,287    (6,575) ( 6.6%)
09/10/02       53,309     58,745    (5,436) ( 4.9%)
09/17/02       72,522     75,815    (3,293) ( 2.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/27/02       10,156     8,040     2,116    11.6%
09/03/02       11,150     7,720     3,430    18.2%
09/10/02       14,024    10,494     3,530    14.4%
09/17/02       15,288    14,142     1,146     3.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials increased their long positions by 4,000 contracts, 
while increasing shorts by 7,000.  Small traders increased longs 
by 6,000 contracts, almost doubling the position, while 
increasing shorts by only 1500, or 15%. 


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/27/02       21,023    14,328    6,695      18.9%
09/03/02       21,161    13,792    7,369      21.1%
09/10/02       22,946    14,936    8,010      21.1%
09/17/02       26,863    21,187    5,676      11.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/27/02        6,825     8,438    (1,613)   (10.6%)
09/03/02        6,395     7,966    (1,571)   (10.9%)
09/10/02        7,568    10,129    (2,561)   (14.5%)
09/17/02       13,393    11,637     1756       7.0%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------


===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((new BEARISH non-tech play))
===============

Alcan Inc. - AL - close: 23.87 change: -0.87 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Alcan is a multinational, market-driven company and a global
leader in aluminum and specialty packaging with 2001 revenues of 
US$12.6 billion. With world-class operations in primary aluminum, 
fabricated aluminum as well as flexible and specialty packaging, 
Alcan is well positioned to meet and exceed its customers' needs 
for innovative solutions and service. (source: company press 
release)

Why We Like It:
Aluminum is used in just about every industry imaginable, from 
telecom to aerospace to semiconductors to autos to home 
appliances.  With most of these sectors looking weak, it's not 
surprising to see companies that produce the metal are 
encountering some serious business difficulties.  Shares of Alcoa 
and Alcan (the world's first and second largest aluminum 
producers, respectively) have been hit for heavy losses over the 
past month on worries that a continued stagnant global economy 
will lead to further reduction in manufacturing demand.  For more 
evidence of widespread weakness in the manufacturing sector, 
check out the cyclical index.  The CYC.X has plummeted to multi-
month lows and is dangerously close to falling under the 
September 2001 lows near 400.  Wall Street does not seem to 
believe a sustainable economic recovery will recovery will 
materialize anytime soon.  The supply side of the aluminum 
equation isn't getting much better either, with overseas 
producers such as China and Russia ramping up production and 
capacity.  On a related macroeconomic note, Canadian-based Alcan 
stands to be negatively impacted by continued weakness in the 
U.S. Dollar (DX00Y), which is hovering near 52-week lows.

Technically, AL reflects the bearish fundamental outlook.  Shares 
fell by 3.5% on Tuesday and closed at levels not seen since 1999.  
This came a day after Prudential slashed its 12-month price for 
Alcoa from $35 to $26 per share.  AL has thus far weathered the 
latest downtrend a little better than AA, but today's triple-
bottom point-and-figure sell signal indicates that this relative 
strength may soon disappear.  The lack of immediate underlying 
support will make it very difficult for the bulls to stem the 
bleeding.  Although the 1999 lows near $23.00 may provide a 
temporary support, we believe AL will eventually fall to the 
$20.00 level.  This play will be activated if shares fall below 
today's low of $23.73.  If triggered, we will use a stop loss at 
$25.06.  This is above both today's high and whole-number 
resistance at $25.00.  

Picked on September xxth at xx.xx
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            10/16/02 (confirmed)
 






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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 09-24-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright © 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  INVN
  Bearish Play Updates:  MXIM

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     AL, NAV
  Bearish Play Updates:  AHC, BDK, CUM, CI, DIA, GE, KMB, WHR
  Closed Bearish Plays:  GM

High Risk/Reward
  Bearish Play Updates:  TSS

Split Runs
  Bullish Play Updates:  RMCI

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

InVision Technologies - INVN - cls: 31.82 chg: +0.12 stop: 29.40

Much like the NASDAQ, INVN traded somewhat flat on Tuesday.  
Technical bulls can be encouraged by the successful retest of the 
200-dma and rebound from the lower band of the ascending 
regression channel.  Shares gained fractionally on the lightest 
volume in almost two weeks.  The stock actually traded above the 
$32.00 level on an intraday basis but was unable to crack 
Monday's high.  A move above this short-term resistance could 
lead to another upward leg, so traders looking for new entries 
may want to look for a break above $32.50.  Our stop remains set 
at $29.40.

Picked on September 23rd at $31.70
Results since picked:        +0.12
Earnings Date             10/23/02 (unconfirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Maxim Integrated - MXIM - cls: 24.19 chg: +0.65 stop: 25.36 *new*

Well, nothing goes down in a straight line!  For more than a 
week, both the semiconductor index (SOX.X) and MXIM had been 
setting multi-year lows on a daily basis.  The absence of any 
major negative news in the chip sector led some bears to lock in 
profits on Tuesday.  MXIM actually pegged a new multi-year low 
today, but shares quickly rebounded from the morning lows.  An 
afternoon rally also took the stock above psychological 
resistance at $25.00.  We probably would've closed this play if 
MXIM closed above that level, but a steep decline near the end of 
the session helped to steel our bearish resolve.  The possibility 
still exists that this oversold stock could see more short-
covering.  With this in mind, we're going to lower our stop to 
$25.36, two cents above today's high.  This should protect a gain 
of 7.5%.  If shares reverse course and continue lower we'll be 
watching for MXIM to reach our profit-target at $22.06.  We would 
not recommend taking new entries at this time.

Picked on September 13th at $27.44
Gain since picked:           +3.25
Earnings Date             11/05/02 (unconfirmed)
 





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Alcan Inc. - AL - close: 23.87 change: -0.87 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Alcan is a multinational, market-driven company and a global
leader in aluminum and specialty packaging with 2001 revenues of 
US$12.6 billion. With world-class operations in primary aluminum, 
fabricated aluminum as well as flexible and specialty packaging, 
Alcan is well positioned to meet and exceed its customers' needs 
for innovative solutions and service. (source: company press 
release)

Why We Like It:
Aluminum is used in just about every industry imaginable, from 
telecom to aerospace to semiconductors to autos to home 
appliances.  With most of these sectors looking weak, it's not 
surprising to see companies that produce the metal are 
encountering some serious business difficulties.  Shares of Alcoa 
and Alcan (the world's first and second largest aluminum 
producers, respectively) have been hit for heavy losses over the 
past month on worries that a continued stagnant global economy 
will lead to further reduction in manufacturing demand.  For more 
evidence of widespread weakness in the manufacturing sector, 
check out the cyclical index.  The CYC.X has plummeted to multi-
month lows and is dangerously close to falling under the 
September 2001 lows near 400.  Wall Street does not seem to 
believe a sustainable economic recovery will recovery will 
materialize anytime soon.  The supply side of the aluminum 
equation isn't getting much better either, with overseas 
producers such as China and Russia ramping up production and 
capacity.  On a related macroeconomic note, Canadian-based Alcan 
stands to be negatively impacted by continued weakness in the 
U.S. Dollar (DX00Y), which is hovering near 52-week lows.

Technically, AL reflects the bearish fundamental outlook.  Shares 
fell by 3.5% on Tuesday and closed at levels not seen since 1999.  
This came a day after Prudential slashed its 12-month price for 
Alcoa from $35 to $26 per share.  AL has thus far weathered the 
latest downtrend a little better than AA, but today's triple-
bottom point-and-figure sell signal indicates that this relative 
strength may soon disappear.  The lack of immediate underlying 
support will make it very difficult for the bulls to stem the 
bleeding.  Although the 1999 lows near $23.00 may provide a 
temporary support, we believe AL will eventually fall to the 
$20.00 level.  This play will be activated if shares fall below 
today's low of $23.73.  If triggered, we will use a stop loss at 
$25.06.  This is above both today's high and whole-number 
resistance at $25.00.  

Picked on September xxth at xx.xx
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            10/16/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Navistar Intl - NAV - close: 20.64 change: -1.16 stop: *text*

Company Description:
International Truck and Engine Corporation is the operating 
company of Navistar International Corporation International Truck 
and Engine is a leading producer of mid-range diesel engines, 
medium trucks, heavy trucks, severe service vehicles, bus chassis 
and a provider of parts and service sold under the International® 
brand. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
By the looks of things, you'd think people had decided to abandon 
the use of motor vehicles!  Despite months of zero-interest 
financing, the major players in the auto industry (GM, F, and 
DCX) are trading at or near multi-year lows.  Related stocks such 
as JCI, DPH, and CUM have also been beaten down.  With the Dow 
Transportation index (TRAN) threatening to retest its September 
lows, it's looking pretty grim for trucking stocks as well.  The 
latest bearishness seems to stem from a combination of continued 
economic pessimism and a long-term uptrend in the price of crude 
oil (cl02z), which hit a new relative high today amid gathering 
war clouds in Iraq.

Truck manufactures are looking just as weak as their automotive 
counterparts.  Both PCAR and NAV are mired in extended 
downtrends, and both hit new multi-month lows on Tuesday.  We 
considered the former as a short play, but decided on NAV because 
the stock is already below its September 2001 lows.  The stock 
has recently broken out of an extended consolidation period where 
shares bounced around in $22.50-$27.00 range. Our bearish 
interest was also piqued by the recent triple-bottom sell signal 
on the p-n-f chart.  Although possible support lies at $20.00 and 
the 2000 lows of $18.25, we believe the recent breakdown and 
overall sector bearishness have opened the door for a decline to 
the $15-$17 region.  As a precautionary measure, we will not 
enter this paper trade until NAV trades under today's low of 
$20.55.  Should this occur, our stop will be set at $22.59, one 
cent above last Friday's high.  This would be a 10% move from our 
entry point.  We'll probably ratchet down our stop as soon as the 
$20.00 level gives way. 

Picked on September xxth at xx.xx
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            12/03/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amerada Hess Corp - AHC - cls: 64.47 chg: -1.62 stop: 68.02*new*

As the political machine heats up for military action with Iraq 
the price of crude oil has been able to maintain its Friday 
breakout above the $30 a barrel (cl02z, Dec 02 contract).  
Surprisingly, stocks in the oil group continue to drop steadily 
and shares of AHC have now closed below the $65 level where we 
had suspected potential support.  This is good news for the bears 
but the stock is clearly oversold short-term even though the MACD 
looks like it could keep dropping for a long time to come.  
Consider the close under $65 new bearish positions could be 
consider but only if one takes care in limiting their risk.  The 
newsletter is going to move our stop down to breakeven or $68.02.  
If you're just not considering a short play you might want to 
consider something tighter.  We're also going to set an official 
profit target of $62.50.  AHC bounced twice in July and early 
August at the $61.45 level but we want to exit before bulls 
decide they are ready to defend the stock or attempt to catch a 
bottom.  If AHC trades at $62.50 or lower we'll close the play.  
Keep in mind that if the oil sector or AHC bounces we would not 
be surprised to see a bounce back to the $66.50 area before the 
current downtrend attempts to resume.  

Picked on September 17th at $68.02
Results since picked:        +3.55
Earnings Date             07/24/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Black & Decker - BDK - cls: 40.40 chg: -0.36 stop: 42.66*new*

Black & Decker offered mixed news for Wall Street this week.  The 
company affirmed their earnings estimates and offered optimistic 
comments about meeting or beating the Street's numbers for the Q3 
and the year.  Currently, First Call has consensus estimates for 
BDK showing 83 cents a share for the third quarter and $3.03 for 
the full year.  The fly in the soup for BDK's positive earnings 
comments was news their Price Pfister plumbing products would be 
losing some shelf space in Home Depot stores across the central 
and eastern states.  BDK expects this will affect fiscal 2002 by 
almost $15M and going forward it will reduce revenues by $50M a 
year.  The news was met early this morning with selling pressure 
and BDK dropped to $39.70, breaking the $40 support level but by 
the close shares had rebounded.  They remain below the recent 
four-day support level of $40.50 but we would probably only 
consider new bearish plays if BDK failed at $41 and began to 
rollover or traded back under the $40 level.  We are lowering our 
stop to $42.66 to reduce our risk. More aggressive traders could 
use a failed rally at $42 as a potential entry.  FYI...shares of 
BDK have now pierced their bullish support on the PnF chart.

Picked on September 18th at $41.69 
Results since picked:        +1.29
Earnings Date             10/22/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Cigna Corp. - CI - close: 71.55 change: -2.03 stop: 75.05*new*

If you haven't heard yet the top 100 list of employers for 
working mothers is out and CI is on the list.  Actually this is 
the 11th year in a row that Cigna has made the list and 
considering that 77% of CI's 40,000-member workforce are women, 
that's probably no easy task.  We may applaud their efforts for 
working mothers but investors continue to shy away from insurance 
stocks.  Maybe it's the rising possibility of war with Iraq and 
all the potential consequences that may bring here at home.  It's 
just a hypothesis but why are insurers going down when they have 
been able to raise rates for their coverage?  Some are guessing 
that a war with Iraq might spark more terrorists events here at 
home.  Plus, some market commentators have been raising questions 
about insurance companies and their risk to annuities that could 
begin to be called in (this is closer to home for CI than any 
terrorist attack coverage).  Whatever the case shares of CI 
continue to sink and we are close to hitting Premier's short-term 
official exit price of $70.06.  The stock has historical support 
at the $70 level and we would expect it to bounce.  Unfortunately 
for shareholders we really don't expect that bounce to last.  
Should CI trade back to the $75 level and stall we'd probably 
consider new bearish entries.  As of this point we would not look 
to initiate new positions and we are lowering our stop to $75.05.

Picked on September 20th at 74.98
Results since picked:       +3.43
Earnings Date            11/01/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Cummins Inc - CUM - close: 23.42 change: -1.02 stop: 24.01*new*

The breakdown in Cummins Inc is getting ugly.  News has been 
quiet this week but the stock continues to slide and Tuesday's 
session lost another 4%.  The rest of the "automotive" related 
stocks aren't doing any better.  Ford looks bad and GM just broke 
under the $40 support level.  Of course CUM isn't just truck 
engines.  They produce a number of goods but the stock market 
apparently feels that CUM was too rich in the high 20's.  The 
steepness of the drop has us thinking that the stock could reach 
$20 but our original profit target was the $22 to $23 range.  
We're going to meet in the middle and make $22.56 our official 
exit price on this play.  Should CUM trade there intraday we'll 
close the play.  We're also going to lower our stop.  Normally, 
we would probably put our stop at $25.01, which would be just 
north of the $25 psychological resistance level.  More aggressive 
traders might want to use this as their stop.  We're going to get 
conservative and use $24.01 as our new stop.  The intraday chart 
today showed a nice drop at the open and then a narrow trading 
range with $24 as overhead resistance for the session.  Those 
traders who follow volume on specific moves might note that 
volume has been dropping since the breakdown, which might 
indicate CUM is running out of sellers (for the moment).  By 
lowering the stop to $24.01 we can protect almost $3 worth of 
gains.  We probably would not suggest new positions at this time 
but should a trader do so, the stop at $24.01 should limit their 
risk.

Picked on September 17th at $26.99 
Results since picked:        +3.57
Earnings Date             10/10/02 (unconfirmed)
 


---

Diamonds Trust - DIA - cls: 77.07 chg: -1.73 stop: 78.81*new*

As expected the FOMC did not lower rates today but news that 
there was dissension among the Fed governors may have investors 
worried.  If the Fed had cut now then maybe the economy is worse 
than we thought.  Many believe the FOMC is holding on to their 
few remaining "bullets" and will probably cut again before the 
year is out, especially if we do go to war with Iraq or as the 
Fed said today, "emergence of heightened geopolitical risks."  
Casting further weakness on the DJIA was earnings warnings in the 
paper and chemicals sectors.  WY and ROH both said that they 
would miss and this hit DJIA components DD and IP.  The Diamonds 
came pretty close to hitting our exit price of $76.25 and should 
we see a drop tomorrow we'll probably get triggered.  In the mean 
time we're going to lower our stop to $78.81, which is just above 
today's high.  We would not recommend new positions at this time 
since the index is so close to its July lows and way overdue for 
a bounce.

Picked on September 18th at $81.41
Change since picked:         +4.34
Earnings Date                  N/A
 



---

General Electric - GE - cls: 25.90 chg: -0.50 stop: 27.65*new*

Following the market lower today was GE but the stock held up 
reasonably well considering a downgrade today by J.P. Morgan.  
JPM lowered their earnings estimates on GE from $1.76 to $1.70 a 
share.  Plus a Reuters news article said, "J.P. Morgan said it 
expects that GE will soon acknowledge that double-digit earnings 
growth in 2003 is unlikely. 'Possible unannounced acquisitions 
could fill some of this gap, though it is getting late for these 
to impact 2003,' J.P. Morgan said."  The thought that GE might 
have to offer its own lowered earnings guidance is not a new one 
but it has been picking up steam lately, with warnings from the 
likes of HON and EDS.  Considering how oversold the market and 
shares of GE look we're going to change our official exit price.  
Our new official target to exit this play is $25.01.  The July 
low was $23.02 but we suspect the bulls might put up a fight for 
GE around the $25 level.  We're willing to get out now, take a 
$2.65 cent move and look for a new entry later.  We're also 
lowering our stop to breakeven or $27.65.  

Picked on September 13th at $27.65 
Results since picked:        +1.75
Earnings Date             07/12/02 (confirmed)




---

Kimberly Clark - KMB - close: 55.75 change: -1.38 stop: 58.63

Paper stocks were ripped apart today after sector giant 
Weyerhaeuser issued an earnings warning.  The company said it now 
expects to make 5 cents to 10 cents per share during the third 
quarter.  The consensus estimate was for earnings of 35 cents.  
That's a pretty bad warning, so it wasn't surprising to see WY 
get chopped by nearly 12%.  The FPP.X forest/paper products index 
sank to a multi-year low, while KMB followed the sector lower and 
finished with a loss of 2.4%.  This new relative low is an 
encouraging technical development for our play.  The daily bar 
chart shows that there are no major support levels or regions of 
congestion to prevent a continued decline.  New short-term 
entries can be gauged on a move below psychological support at 
$55.00, but keep in mind that we'll close this play if KMB trades 
at or below $52.51.

Picked on September 20th at 56.85
Results since picked:       +1.10
Earnings Date            10/22/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Whirlpool - WHR - close: 46.47 change: -1.06 stop: 50.11 *new*

You might recall that this play's original write-up discussed 
what appeared to be a weakening fundamental picture for the home 
appliance industry.  Last night we were provided with tangible 
evidence of that weakness, courtesy of a Maytag earnings warning.  
The company announced it expects third quarter earnings to come 
in at 65-70 cents/share.  Analysts had previously been looking 
for an EPS of 79 cents.  MYG blamed the lowered forecast on slow 
major appliance sales and logistical problems related to the 
launch of its new "Atlantis" line of washers.  Investors punished 
the stock for a 5% loss, while shares of competitor WHR gave back 
2.2%.  Although we were hoping to see a larger loss, we're 
certainly not going to complain about today's action.  Shares 
reached new multi-year lows on the strongest volume in over two 
months.  That's a good indication that the WHR will continue 
lower in the near-term.  If this is the case, aggressive traders 
can target new entries on a move below round-number support at 
$45.00.  Remember that our exit price is currently located at 
$40.51.  We may adjust that target depending on how shares behave 
as they fall towards the $40-$42 region.  Also note that we've 
lowered our stop by one dollar, to $50.11.

Picked on September 23rd at 48.44
Results since picked:       +1.97
Earnings Date            10/15/02 (unconfirmed)


 


===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

General Motors - GM - cls: 38.17 chg: -3.41 stop: 45.01

Whoa!  We've been bearish on GM over the past week, but it was 
still surprising to see the stock slice through the $40.00 level 
like a hot knife through butter.  Because we had anticipated that 
the bears would offer a more spirited defense of this support 
region, we placed our profit-target at $40.51.  This level was 
hit on Tuesday morning, thus closing our paper trade for a gain 
of 7.7%.  Helping to push the stock lower was news that General 
Motors had recalled nearly 600,000 of its 2000-2002 full-size 
SUV's due to 14 cases of people getting their fingers caught in 
the vehicles' folding seats.  The sell-off on the Dow Jones also 
helped the bears' cause.  Those who elected to ride GM lower can 
be pleased with today's close below $40.00.  That hasn't happened 
since 1995!  We wouldn't be looking to chase this one lower with 
new entries, but the fresh triple-bottom sell signal indicates 
that a near-term decline to the $35.00 wouldn't be out of the 
question.

Picked on September 16th at $43.89 
Results since picked:        +3.38
Earnings Date             10/15/02 (confirmed)
 





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Total System Services - TSS - cls: 13.91 chg: -0.22 stop: 15.56

More of the same for TSS, and that's just fine with us!  The 
stock hit a new 52-week low on Tuesday and underperformed the 
tech-heavy NASDAQ with a 1.5% loss.  Shares closed below support 
at $14.00 and volume remains strong.  These are technical 
indications that TSS will continue to fall in the short-term.  
Today's breach of the $14.00 level is especially bearish.  TSS 
had previously bounced from just above this mark in 1998 and 
1999.  The weekly chart shows that there are no underlying 
support levels to prevent a move to our profit-target at $12.09.
Aggressive traders can target new entries on a break of today's 
low at $13.65.  Although our stop is still set at $15.56, those 
looking to further limit risk could probably get away with a stop 
slightly above psychological resistance at $15.00.

Picked on September 23rd at $14.49 
Results since picked:        +0.58
Earnings Date             07/16/02 (confirmed)
 





==================================================================
Split Runs / Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

===============
ST Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Right Mgmt Consultants - RMCI - cls: 24.91 chg: -0.72 stop: 22.99 

The past two days of trading have seen RMCI move lower with the 
broader market.  Shares did briefly spike to a relative high on 
Monday morning, but this bullish price action was quickly met 
with selling.  Given today's sell-off in the Dow Jones, RMCI's 
2.8% decline wasn't all that concerning.  We'll be the first ones 
to admit that split runs are a lot more reliable in a bull 
market.  However, the strong fundamental outlook for the company 
makes the stock a lot more attractive than many of its 
compatriots in the business services sector.  We continue to 
expect more upside, and the recent dip may have provided an entry 
point.  Traders can think about going long if the broader market 
shows some strength and RMCI moves back above the $25.00 level.  
Those seeking more bullish confirmation could wait for a move 
above $26.28, but be aware of possible resistance in the $27.00-
$27.50 range.

Picked on September 20th at $25.80 
Gain since picked:           -0.89
Earnings Date             10/21/02 (confirmed)





=================
  Trading Ideas
=================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

..None..

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SEE     Sealed Air                 17.91     +2.12
ULAB    Unilab Corp                19.84     +1.78
OSIP    OSI Pharmaceuticals        16.73     +3.64
IMCL    Imclone Systems             8.07     +1.96
SP      Specialty Labs              9.15     +1.06

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

GIS     General Mills              44.40     +1.26
YELL    Yellow Corp                27.84     +1.97
ABFS    Arkansas Best Corp         29.08     +1.49
ROAD    Roadway Express Inc        34.87     +3.97

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

HBC     HSBC Holdings              51.67     -1.58
IBM     Intl Business Machines     59.75     -3.62
KFT     Kraft Foods Inc            37.45     -1.79
KSS     Kohl's Corp                66.00     -1.45
GM      General Motors             38.16     -3.42
IP      Intl Paper                 31.94     -2.21
RTN     Raytheon Co                31.40     -1.00
WY      Weyehaeuser Co             43.79     -5.94
ETR     Entergy Corp               38.00     -1.29
CMA     Comerica Inc               47.43     -2.44
ROH     Rohm & Haas                31.25     -1.51
DTE     DTE Energy                 38.84     -1.70
IR      Ingersoll-Rand ltd         33.72     -1.88

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

.none.




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