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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 09/27/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-27-2002
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright © 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      October Preview?
Play-of-the-Day:  Softening Software
Watch List:       CTL, DST, FDX, LH, MAY, SPC and more!
Market Sentiment: Third Time's a Charm

******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
        WE 9-27          WE 9-20          WE 9-13          WE 9-06    
DOW     7701.45 -284.57  7986.02 -326.67  8312.69 -124.51  -236.30  
Nasdaq  1199.08 - 22.00  1221.08 - 70.28  1291.36 -  3.94  - 19.76  
S&P-100  413.22 - 10.68   423.90 - 20.34   444.24 -  2.43  - 14.13  
S&P-500  827.36 - 18.03   845.39 - 44.41   889.80 -  4.12  - 22.16  
W5000   7872.54 -150.63  8023.17 -417.71  8440.88 - 40.32  -172.84  
RUT      361.77 -  5.51   367.28 - 22.70   389.98 - 40.32  +   .61  
TRAN    2185.17 +  1.15  2184.02 - 62.85  2246.87 - 10.20  -  8.56  
VIX       43.14 -  1.41    44.55 +  5.24    39.31 -   .73  +  4.24  
VXN       57.86 -  1.22    59.08 +  3.23    55.85 -   .69  +  1.56  
TRIN       2.09             0.86             1.53             0.93  
Put/Call   0.90             1.16             0.89             0.79  
******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

October Preview?
by Jim Brown

They tried. They really tried to rally the markets on Friday but
the bad news was simply too widespread for buyers to handle. The
GE news and Phillip Morris warning were only two of the headliners
but there were plenty more that followed the same story line. The
end of quarter window dressing turned into a strip show and traders
in shorts watched as bulls lost the shirts off their backs. 

Dow Chart



Nasdaq Chart



The recovery possibilities took another series of hits on Friday
with the results of warnings from GE, SBC, MO, DAL, WYE and PLCE. 
The semiconductor sector was hit again after TSM and United Semi
announced cuts in capex spending. New downgrades hit AMCC, BRCM,
CNXT, PMCS, TUNE, TXCC and VTSS. This set the tone for the day and
it was ugly. Still the markets tried to rally off the opening dip
and were somewhat successful until about 11:30 when the bottom fell
out of the Dow. Once the support at 7900 and 7850 broke it was just
a bet to see how far the red ink would run before the close. 

The final Q2 GDP numbers came in slightly higher than expected at
1.3% growth but nobody seemed to care. That is ancient history in
the markets. More importantly was the negative growth rate for the
current economy as reflected by the ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators. 
After suggesting a +2% growth rate back in early August the numbers
have slowly declined to the -0.1% rate for last week. This, along
with the multiple warnings from a very broad spectrum of companies,
points to the very real possibility of a double dip in progress. 

The final revision of the September Consumer Sentiment came in at
86.1, down -1.5 points from August and the lowest level since last
November. The current conditions component fell to 95.8 with more
respondents commenting on wealth fears than any time in the history
of the survey. Even the great market crash in 1987 failed to worry
consumers as much as the current economy. The expectations component
fell to 79.9 on fears that jobs are not stable and layoffs could 
continue to worsen. This continued drop in confidence is causing
analysts to reevaluate the outlook for more auto sales and new 
home sales. With jobs tight, confidence low and debt levels high
there is not a lot of pent up demand. Those that can afford to buy
toys and houses already have and those that cannot afford it don't
count for future expectations. This predicts lowered spending habits
over the next few months, not increased spending. The holiday retail
buying binge may be sedate with unemployment at 5.9% and growing. 
At only 3.9% two years ago the money was flowing freely. It is time
to pay the piper and with the market setting four year lows there
are no savings accounts to draw on for spending cash.

The fund reporting companies said today that August was another 
month of net outflows but not nearly as bad as the -$50 billion in
July. September has already gone on record as another outflow month.
Small wonder when Lipper reported that only 62 of 8200 funds tracked
were positive for the quarter. How long will the herd continue to
keep funds in accounts that are negative quarter after quarter?
After five weeks of losses the markets are right back to the closing
lows from July and multiyear lows in come cases. Using the Art
Cashin analogy, Jill and Jane Doe will open the paper this weekend
and see that their 200% to 400% gains from the last four years have
turned into losses instead and decide that bonds suddenly look like
good investments until the economy recovers. That phone will ring
on Monday at their fund headquarters and money will flow out again.

The talking heads were discussing tax loss selling on Friday. This
is an October event because most funds have October year ends. They
will add up their winners and losers and decide how much they can
sell for a profit to offset the tax loss. In a perfect world they
would sell a stock for a profit that had a good run and they felt 
had topped to offset losses on investments that failed and they
sold for a loss. This minimizes the overall taxable event and 
prevents huge tax loss carry forwards. The problem this year is
lack of winners. Who are they going to sell? While this may be a
problem on the surface there may be more winners than you think. 

Looking at a six-year chart as an example MMM was only $70, PG
in the $40s, MO $20, JNJ $30, MSFT $25, Dell $10, AMGN $15, BGEN $20,
ERTS $20, EBAY $20, ESRX $10, INTU $15, IBM $35, UTX $30, WMT $20,
HD $15, QCOM $6. In fund years these prices were last week. With 
the fertile field of winners there should be lots of selling to 
offset losers. Unfortunately the majority of these stocks are key
components to the major indexes. This means the Dow/Nasdaq may be
very susceptible to October tax selling. It is one thing for the
mutual funds to tell you they lost 25% more of your money and 
another thing to realize that it will take years to benefit from
those losses on your taxes. Funds trying to escape more investor
flight will be trying to mitigate those losses as much as possible.
Will there be tax loss selling in October? You can bet on it!

The current quarter is almost certainly to go down as the worst
quarter ever for the Dow. It is down over -16% with one day to go. 
The S&P dropped -23% during the 4Q of 1987 and is also down -16%
already this quarter. It would have to drop below 762 on Monday 
to equal the 1987 record. The indexes closed at critical levels
on Friday, 7701 for the Dow and 1199 for the Nasdaq. Each only
one point from critical support. September has long been know as
the setup month for October lows. It could not have occurred any
more perfectly if you had been able to script it. The Dow is only
169 points from the July lows and the Nasdaq only 30 points above
the lows for the year. With one day left in September a new low in
October may only need to be a drop of a single point at the open
on Tuesday if Monday follows Friday's pattern. 

The economic calendar next week is crucial to the continued 
market movement. Monday starts with Personal Income/Spending and
the Chicago PMI. If income/spending shrinks then fears of the
double dip will increase. PMI is expected to drop from 54.9 to
53.0 but without a serious miss this report should be ignored.
It is more watched for evidence of inflation than recession. 
Tuesday will focus on the ISM survey for September. Bulls had
better hope the number comes in at the 50.6% forecast because 
a number under 50 is recessionary and we are very close to that
trigger. Construction Spending will also be released. Wednesday
has no releases and will continue to be a reaction day for the
ISM. Thursday we get the non-manufacturing ISM and Factory Orders.
Both of these could be very detrimental. Friday is the trump 
card with the September Payroll Report. If jobs decreased and
it seems very unlikely that they didn't, then the July market
lows, if not already broken, will be toast. This is the critical
week for the month economically. This is the yardstick for the
economy in precise terms. If orders are falling and jobs are
being lost then the hand writing is on the wall.

The main point I got from last weeks news events was that CEOs
seemed to be even more worried than in the past. Knowing that 
earnings are 2-3 weeks away and the end of quarter sales were
not shaping up well, they were using very cautious terms to 
describe the outlook. John Chambers tripped over his tongue 
several times trying to be cautious in his presentation but get
across the concern that companies had even less visibility than
before. (translation = significantly fewer orders than expected) 
It appears to me that the economy hit a wall in August/September
but nobody wants to admit it. Corporate America, economists and 
the Fed are all hoping that seasonal holiday buying will somehow
rescue the economy from the double dip. Treasury bond yields are
still dropping like a rock as investors go for value but corporate
bonds are soaring as worries over corporate profits are increasing. 
The bond markets tend to lead the stock market and the economy
and they are telling us that our economic troubles are not over.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown

"A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight.
But being wrong and not taking the loss, that is what does the
most damage to the wallet and the soul"  - Jesse Livermore


Reader comments are always welcomed. 
If this commentary helped you please let us know. 
comments@OptionInvestor.com


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=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH)
=========================
(( new tech short ))

Mercury Interactive - MERQ - cls: 18.07 chg: -0.94 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Mercury Interactive, the leading provider of software and services 
that optimize automated business processes, delivers a complete, 
integrated family of enterprise testing, production tuning and 
performance management solutions that enable customers to optimize 
business processes and maximize business results. (source: company 
press release)

Why We Like It:
Over the past nine months we've seen a whole lot of software 
stocks fall from relatively lofty levels to the bargain bin 
single-digit price range.  Shares of Oracle, the world's second-
biggest software company, suffered this fate back in May.  
Repeated attempts to bounce out of the $8-$10 range have been 
hampered by the company's business difficulties.  Just last week, 
ORCL's CFO commented that "I'm less optimistic than I was three 
months ago...we are still in a declining, not a bottoming, 
environment for software sales."  This lack of demand doesn't bode 
well for smaller companies such as Mercury Interactive.  Given the 
worsening business climate, it may only be a matter of time until 
MERQ joins ORCL in the sub-$10.00 level.

Recent technical developments do not give shareholders much hope 
of avoiding another sell-off.  On Monday MERQ fell though 
psychological support at $20.00.  The bulls spent the next few 
sessions trying in vain to recover this level.  Today's action saw 
shares underperform the NASDAQ and hit fresh 52-week lows.  This 
created a double-bottom sell signal on the point-and-figure chart.  
The stock is already oversold (as gauged by the daily 
stochastics), but the negative fundamental outlook seems to have 
prompted panicky investors to sell at any level.  Pulling back to 
a weekly chart, you can see that MERQ is sitting just above the 
September 2001 lows.  Should this level of support fail, we think 
shares could quickly reach the $15.00 region.  In order to ensure 
that a breakdown is in progress, we will not activate this play 
until MERQ falls below today's low of $17.98.  Our stop will be 
set at $19.56, slightly above today's high.  Those with a more 
aggressive risk management strategy could use a stop just above 
Thursday's high of $20.15.  On a brief sector-related note, the 
GSO.X software index is hovering above its all-time low of $81.75.  
The only thing that seems to be preventing the index from a SOX-
like sell-off is strength in MSFT.  If Mr. Softee gives up the 
ghost we could see MERQ pick up even more downside momentum.

Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:           +0.00
Earnings Date             10/17/02 (confirmed)
 




==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Centurytel Inc. - CTL - close: 23.27 change: -0.97

WHAT TO WATCH: The telecom sector was beaten down today after SBC 
announced it would layoff 11,000 employees.  Like most stocks in 
the group, CTL has been trending lower for several months.  
Shares are trading at relative lows and look poised to retest the 
July low of $21.13.  Traders can gauge short positions on a move 
under today's low of $23.25.  The daily stochastics (5,3,3) are 
starting to falter after recently rising out of the oversold region.  
This is an indication that CTL will continue lower in the short-term.  


 

---

DST Systems - DST - close: 30.28 change: -0.92

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of DST are hovering above critical support 
at $30.00.  Given the weakening NASDAQ, chances of a breakdown 
seem pretty high.  A glance at a weekly chart shows that DST has 
no underlying support until the $25-$26 range.  Point-and-figure 
chartists will also notice the bearish triangle sell signal.  
Out of all the bearish p-n-f formations, this pattern tends to 
produce the largest average gain (source: Thomas Dorsey).  Short 
traders can think about going short on a move below $30.00.




--- 
 
Fedex Corp. - FDX - close: 50.45 change: -1.50

WHAT TO WATCH: Here's a nice contrarian play.  FDX shot higher 
last week after the company announced a strong earnings report.  
The stock gained more than 20% in just seven trading days.  As 
impressive as this rally was, shares appear due for a pullback.  
FDX ran headlong into the 200-dma ($52.28) and has now begun to 
roll over.  The daily stochastics (5,3,3) are pinned at the 
upper band, offering technical confirmation that the stock is 
overbought.  Short-term traders can watch for a move below 
psychological support at $50.00.  This would open the door for 
a decline to the 50-dma at $47.50.  If things get really ugly 
on the Dow Jones, a test of the relative lows near $43.00 
wouldn't be out of the question.




--- 

Laboratory Corp. - LH - close: 34.00 change: +0.80

WHAT TO WATCH: LH has shown great relative strength over the 
past week, and that was especially the case today.  Shares 
finished in the green by 2.4%, despite a 4.0% decline in the 
DRG.X pharmaceutical index.  Drug stocks were weak because of 
an earnings warning from WYE.  LH has traced a pattern of higher 
lows since July and is now poised to break above intermediate-term 
resistance at $35.00.  A move above this level would pave the 
way for a rally to the 200-dma at $41.45.  A trade at $35.00 
would also create a triple-top breakout on the point-and-figure 
chart.  The rising daily stochastics (5,3,3) suggest that shares 
will continue to rise in the near future.




---

May Dept. Stores - MAY - close: 23.26 change: -1.74

WHAT TO WATCH: Many retail stocks took a solid whacking today 
after PLCE announced a horrific earnings warning.  The company 
said it expected break-even results for Q3.  Analysts had 
expected earnings in the 52 cent range.  Ouch!!  Shares of PLCE 
lost nearly a third of their value on this news.  MAY didn't 
fare quite that badly, but the stock did fall to a 52-week low 
on very strong volume.  With the p-n-f chart on a triple-bottom 
breakdown, it looks like shares will continue to gravitate 
towards the $20.00 level.  By the way, we noticed that May 
Senior V.P. William Edkins sold 27,384 shares of his company's 
common stock on Friday.  That insider selling isn't going to 
inspire much confidence in the bulls.


 

--- 

St. Paul Co. - SPC - close: 28.79 change: -1.61

WHAT TO WATCH: There are several possible shorts in the 
insurance group, including ALL, AIG, CIG, and HIG.  We think 
SPC is worth a mention on the Watchlist because it's on the 
verge of breaking out of a multi-month consolidation period.  
Shares have already broken to relative lows after selling off 
from the 50-dma ($30.05).  The key level to watch is $28.00. 
Should this region of support give way, it looks like SPC 
could quickly get sucked down to the July low of $23.00.  
Shorter-term traders could target a move to psychological 
support at $25.00.


 


------------
RADAR SCREEN
------------ 

AAP - Strong earnings from AZO helped to launch AAP off its 
converging 50-day and 200-day moving averages.  The stock is 
now resting just below solid resistance at $55.00.  A move 
above this level could clear the way for a move to $60.00.

S - Another possible retail short.  S has broken to relative 
lows and could accelerate its descent if it falls below the 
August low of $39.75.  P-n-f chart is currently showing a 
double-bottom sell signal. 

TUP - Not exactly the most volatile stock, but TUP might see 
some quick movement if it breaks below $15.50.  Short-term 
traders could target a retest of the 2000 lows near $14.50.



================
Market Sentiment
================

Third Time's a Charm
by Steven Price

Boy, that was quick.  This morning's economic data wasn't that 
bad.  GDP slightly came in slightly above expectations, at 1.3% 
and Consumer Sentiment was basically in line with expectations, 
at 86.1. While the Sentiment reading of  86.1 was down for the 
fourth straight month, it just barely missed the preliminary 
reading of 86.2.  Most of the drop was focused in consumers' 
economic outlook, with the current conditions index falling from 
98.5 in August to 95.9 in September.

The Dow opened down only slightly. This was quite a surprise 
after Philip Morris' warning last night after the bell was 
accompanied by SBC's layoff announcement.  After looking for a 
big drop on the open, it appeared the day would be just another 
boring, low volume Friday. Of course, there hasn't been a boring, 
low-volume, non-holiday in months, so I should have known better.  

The Consumer Confidence number came out mid-morning, and was 
followed by a slight rally.  However, the news from several 
sources began to overwhelm the bulls and it was slowly downhill 
from there.  GE reaffirmed its guidance, but CFO Keith Sherin 
said that 2003 was looking more challenging than had been 
expected previously.  This sounds as though a warning for next 
year may not be far off.  Apparently investors agreed, as the 
stock sold off $1.92 (7%) to close at $24.47. 

Delta Airlines then warned, stating that it would lose $350 
million in the third quarter and would layoff 1,500 flight 
attendants.  It said travel in September was worse than even the 
lowest forecasts and fueled bankruptcy speculation.  Delta 
finished the day down $2.81 (24%) at $8.69.

Retailers took a tumble after Children's Place (PLCE) warned that 
3rd and 4th quarter earnings would fall short of estimates, due 
to weak sales in September.  Same store sales had fallen 30% for 
the month of September and 22% for the quarter, so far.  Analysts 
were expecting a profit of 0.57 for the third quarter and 0.72 
for the fourth.  The company now said it would only break even, 
at best.  The stock lost $4.99 (31%) to close at $11.15.

One bright spot, if you can consider a 0.71% loss a bright spot, 
was the semiconductors.  I've been beating up on this sector for 
some time now, but it appears to have found at least a temporary 
bottom.  The index lost a third of its value between the August 
22 and September 23, when the Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX.X) 
closed at 236.  The index rebounded over 250, and has held steady 
in that range, closing today at 246.58.  While it was still in 
the red, it showed great relative strength.  It may simply be 
compressed to the point where the sellers are exhausted for the 
time being and I'm not ready to get long this group just yet.

The HMOs and Health Providers showed a gain, as well.  This is 
likely due to recent news from Tenet HealthCare that its earnings 
would beat estimates by $0.05.  Higher patient fees are expected 
to give hospital profits a boost this quarter, and this was 
reflected in the increase of the Morgan Stanley Health Provider 
Index (+0.59 %) and the Morgan Stanley Health Care Index (+0.25%).  
In addition, a Thursday court decision, which allowed 
600,000 physicians to bring a class action fraud suit against 
U.S. HMOs, also denied class-status to approximately 145 million 
patients served by the providers.  This may be contributing to 
the sector's strength, as well.

Today's near 300-point drop in the Dow all but erased the gains 
of the last two days.  The only bullish (and I use this term 
loosely) sign that can be found is the rebound back over 7700 at 
the close.  The index finished down 295.67, to close just off its 
lows, at 7701.45.  We have now landed near the July closing lows 
twice this week.  Tuesday saw a close 19 points below that level, 
and today we ended 1 point below.  What seems equally significant 
is that the bounce after the first test was turned back soundly 
at 8000.  Because we have now tested support on three occasions 
at this level, my guess is that a drop through it will be severe.  
The next target to the downside is 7532, which is the intraday 
low from July 24.  There is some support around 7400 from 1997 
and 1998, as well.  However, I think if we can get through 7500, 
we will be testing 7000 rather soon. At the same time, the other 
silver lining can be found in my earlier statement, is that we 
have tested SUPPORT here on three occasions.  If we are going to 
bounce, this looks like the level at which it will happen.    If 
we follow through with the current drop on Monday, I will be 
short ASAP.  If not, I will be watching 8000 as the pivot point 
to the upside.  A tick above 8000 is not going to be enough, 
however, as it will take a close above that level to push me out 
of the way.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10679
52-week Low :  7532
Current     :  7701

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 7978
 50-dma: 8419
200-dma: 9538

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  775
Current     :  827

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  849
 50-dma:  886
200-dma: 1038

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  843
Current     :  860

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  873
 50-dma:  932
200-dma: 1251


-----------------------------------------------------------------


The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X): I think I need to quit beating 
up on this sector, as it has been flexing a little muscle lately.  
The index gave up less than 1% on a day when the Dow was down 
almost 300 points.  After bouncing at 230, the SOX seems to have 
found a home around 250.  If these stocks have truly been sold 
down to proper valuations, they could be laying the groundwork 
for a turnaround.  The broader markets will need to find a bottom 
first, but these gave us the first signs of underlying weakness in 
the middle of August, and now they are showing some strength.

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 236
Current     : 246

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 252
 50-dma: 305
200-dma: 464


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX is still over 40, and looks to be headed much higher.  If 
the current level of support, dating back to July, breaks down, 
then we could see 50 very soon. The trend of higher lows and 
higher highs is the reverse of the broader indices.   While VIX 
spikes are usually followed by market rallies, right now we are 
seeing a slow progression upward, which doesn't seem very 
bullish.


CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 43.14 +3.02
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 57.86 –1.23

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.88        448,972       397,334
Equity Only    0.67        347,236       232,143
OEX            1.19         23,059        27,382
QQQ            0.46         45,041        20,853

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          33      - 1     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    22      + 0     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   17      + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       30      + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       25      + 0     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

5-Day Arms Index   1.54
10-Day Arms Index  1.59
21-Day Arms Index  1.49
55-Day Arms Index  1.34

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE        690          2034
NASDAQ      978          2200

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         31             121
NASDAQ       13             201

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,777
NASDAQ   1,437


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/24/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials reduced long and short positions, however ended up 
with a net 10,000 fewer short contracts.  Small traders reduced 
both positions, as well, but shortened up their net long 
positions by 14,000 contracts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
09/03/02      431,755   468,529   (36,774)   (4.1%)
09/10/02      426,230   470,537   (44,307)   (5.0%)
09/17/02      476,224   503,268   (27,044)   (2.7%)
09/24/02      425,276   442,661   (17,385)   (2.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/03/02      158,262    80,130    78,132     32.8%
09/10/02      166,696    85,259    81,437     32.3%
09/17/02      182,243   116,377    64,866     21.7%
09/24/02      124,232    73,506    50,726     25.7%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Commercials reduced long and short positions, but got decidedly 
shorter, by a total of 4700 contracts.  Small traders also 
reduced positions, however stayed close to flat overall.  


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
09/03/02       46,712     53,287    (6,575) ( 6.6%)
09/10/02       53,309     58,745    (5,436) ( 4.9%)
09/17/02       72,522     75,815    (3,293) ( 2.2%)
09/24/02       46,637     54,613    (7,976) ( 7.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
09/03/02       11,150     7,720     3,430    18.2%
09/10/02       14,024    10,494     3,530    14.4%
09/17/02       15,288    14,142     1,146     3.9%
09/24/02       11,163     9,421     1,742     8.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials reduced positions dramatically on a percentage basis, 
but got longer overall, by 3200 contracts.  Small traders also 
reduced positions, but flipped from the long side to short 
overall.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/03/02       21,161    13,792    7,369      21.1%
09/10/02       22,946    14,936    8,010      21.1%
09/17/02       26,863    21,187    5,676      11.8%
09/24/02       18,951    10,074    8,877      30.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
09/03/02        6,395     7,966    (1,571)   (10.9%)
09/10/02        7,568    10,129    (2,561)   (14.5%)
09/17/02       13,393    11,637     1,756      7.0%
09/24/02        7,939     9,453    (1,514)   ( 8.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-27-2002
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright © 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Plays:    MERQ
  Bullish Play Updates: CTSH, INVN
  Bearish Play Updates: KLAC

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:    BLS, CVX, JPM, 
  Bullish Play Updates: CCU
  Bearish Play Updates: AL, KMB

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:    BGEN
  Bearish Play Updates: TSS

SplitTrader
  Split Run
  Bullish Play Updates: RMCI
                        
==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Mercury Interactive - MERQ - cls: 18.07 chg: -0.94 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Mercury Interactive, the leading provider of software and services 
that optimize automated business processes, delivers a complete, 
integrated family of enterprise testing, production tuning and 
performance management solutions that enable customers to optimize 
business processes and maximize business results. (source: company 
press release)

Why We Like It:
Over the past nine months we've seen a whole lot of software 
stocks fall from relatively lofty levels to the bargain bin 
single-digit price range.  Shares of Oracle, the world's second-
biggest software company, suffered this fate back in May.  
Repeated attempts to bounce out of the $8-$10 range have been 
hampered by the company's business difficulties.  Just last week, 
ORCL's CFO commented that "I'm less optimistic than I was three 
months ago...we are still in a declining, not a bottoming, 
environment for software sales."  This lack of demand doesn't bode 
well for smaller companies such as Mercury Interactive.  Given the 
worsening business climate, it may only be a matter of time until 
MERQ joins ORCL in the sub-$10.00 level.

Recent technical developments do not give shareholders much hope 
of avoiding another sell-off.  On Monday MERQ fell though 
psychological support at $20.00.  The bulls spent the next few 
sessions trying in vain to recover this level.  Today's action saw 
shares underperform the NASDAQ and hit fresh 52-week lows.  This 
created a double-bottom sell signal on the point-and-figure chart.  
The stock is already oversold (as gauged by the daily 
stochastics), but the negative fundamental outlook seems to have 
prompted panicky investors to sell at any level.  Pulling back to 
a weekly chart, you can see that MERQ is sitting just above the 
September 2001 lows.  Should this level of support fail, we think 
shares could quickly reach the $15.00 region.  In order to ensure 
that a breakdown is in progress, we will not activate this play 
until MERQ falls below today's low of $17.98.  Our stop will be 
set at $19.56, slightly above today's high.  Those with a more 
aggressive risk management strategy could use a stop just above 
Thursday's high of $20.15.  On a brief sector-related note, the 
GSO.X software index is hovering above its all-time low of $81.75.  
The only thing that seems to be preventing the index from a SOX-
like sell-off is strength in MSFT.  If Mr. Softee gives up the 
ghost we could see MERQ pick up even more downside momentum.

Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:           +0.00
Earnings Date             10/17/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - cls: 58.19 chg: +1.16 stop: 54.89 *new*

Friday wasn't a good day to be a bull.  The NASDAQ held up pretty 
well throughout the session, but was ultimately dragged lower by 
the tanking Dow.  The Composite posted a 1.8% loss and closed at 
the lows of the day.  A pullback in CTSH could've been expected 
(given the tech weakness), but the stock traded like a champ!  
Shares moved nicely higher in morning trading and easily plowed 
through the 50-dma at $57.63.  That's a positive technical 
development that could bring more buyers out of the woodwork next 
week.  CTSH closed well above the 50-dma and finished with a gain 
of 2.0%.  We're very encouraged by the fact that shares held firm 
above $57.75 while the market was diving.  This bodes well for a 
continued rally next week.  Of course, even stronger stocks like 
CTSH will be hard-pressed to move higher if the NASDAQ plummets to 
new lows.  Short-term traders looking to open new positions can 
consider entries at current levels, but be sure to first confirm 
broader market strength.  Note that we've bumped our stop-loss up 
to $54.89, one cent under Thursday's low.

Picked on September 26th at $55.59
Results since picked:        +2.60
Earnings Date             10/14/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

InVision Tech. - INVN - cls: 32.89 chg: -0.08 stop: 29.98

Owing perhaps to InVision's unique product line (bomb-detection 
equipment) and relatively solid fundamental outlook, the stock 
seems to be immune to weakness in the overall tech sector.  Shares 
pulled back fractionally today while the NASDAQ saw a 1.8% loss.  
INVN traded in a small 83-cent range on the lightest volume in 
over a month, indicating a lack of bearish conviction.  Overall 
we're pleased with this trading action.  The recent bounce from 
moving average support (near the bottom of INVN's regression 
channel) appears to have bears on the defensive.  The fresh 3-box 
reversal on the point-and-figure chart and rising daily 
stochastics suggest that we'll see more upside action next week.  
Should this be the case, traders can consider new entries on a 
move above today's high of $33.40.  Although we're keeping our 
stop set at $29.98, more conservative traders may want to use a 
stop just below the 200-dma at $30.90.

Picked on September 23rd at $31.70
Results since picked:        +1.19
Earnings Date             10/23/02 (unconfirmed)
 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

KLA-Tencor Corp. - KLAC - close: 28.68 change: +0.27 stop: 30.61

Two of the smaller players in the chip equipment group, VSEA and 
ASML, offered negative comments on Friday morning.  Varian Semi 
said it only expects to breakeven for the September quarter, while 
Multex estimates had called for an EPS of 4 cents.  In explaining 
the reduction, the company parroted the industry-wide theme of 
"slowing recovery."  ASML Holding announced that shipments in the 
first half would fall 10-15%.  Throw in a lukewarm assessment of 
INTC from Wachovia (who initiated coverage on the company with a 
Hold rating) and the table seemed to be set for another bearish 
feast.  This play was activated at the opening trade of $28.06 
after KLAC gapped slightly lower on the negative sector news.  
Surprisingly, shares were bid higher after the first half-hour.  
This action has us a bit concerned.  Shares eventually rolled over 
below the $30.00 level and followed the broader tech group lower in 
afternoon trading, but the bulls did not appear the least bit 
phased by this morning's news.  KLAC finished with a small gain, 
outperforming both the NASDAQ and SOX.X.  Next week we'll need to 
see this relative strength disappear if shares are going to make a 
move towards the near-term lows at $26.00.  Hopefully chip bears 
will be reinvigorated by the NASDAQ's close under 1200.

Picked on September 27th at $28.06
Gain since picked:           -0.36
Earnings Date             10/22/02 (confirmed)
 




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

BellSouth Corp. - BLS - close: 19.61 change: -1.59 stop: *text*

Company Description:
BellSouth provides a full array of broadband data and e-commerce 
solutions to business customers, including Web hosting and other 
Internet services. In the residential market, BellSouth offers DSL 
high-speed Internet access, advanced voice features and other 
services. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The torrential flow of negative news from Dow components got even 
worse last night when SBC Communications announced that it's 
cutting 11,000 jobs.  This is on top of the 10,000 positions that 
have already been axed.  The company said that the move was "in 
response to a continued weak economy and outmoded regulation that 
could threaten the future viability of its telecommunications 
networks in many of its states."  The first part of that sentence 
has a familiar ring to it - nearly every company that's issued bad 
news over the past year has blamed economic weakness.  But the 
second part helps to explain the particularly dire situation for 
the telecom industry.  The "outmoded regulation" SBC referred to is 
the 1996 Telecom Act.  This piece of legislation was designed to 
make local phone markets more competitive.  Unfortunately, the 
Telecom Act actually hampers the Baby Bells by forcing them to 
share facilities with competitors and mandating that network access 
be leased at wholesale rates.  BellSouth CEO Duane Ackerman argues 
that this results in millions of dollars of losses for telecom 
companies.  Efforts aimed at getting Congress to ease the 
regulations have produced a bill that favors the Bells, but it may 
be a harder sell in the Democrat-controlled Senate.  In the 
meantime, the industry continues to flounder.  SBC's latest round 
of layoffs seem to provide tangible evidence of Ackerman's 
complaints.

Against this backdrop of fundamental weakness, shares of BLS have 
been downtrending for more than seven months.  A new multi-year low 
was reached today after the stock sold off in sympathy with the SBC 
news.  Shares closed below the $20.00 support level, creating what 
looks like a good shorting opportunity.  The lack of underlying 
support, falling MACD, and descending triple-bottom sell signal are 
indications that BLS will continue lower in the near future.  Bears 
can also be pleased with the strong volume that accompanied today's 
breakdown.  In light of the technical and fundamental negativity, 
we think a near-term decline to the $15.00 level is not out of the 
question.  Shorter-term term traders may want to target a retest of 
the 1996 lows near $17.50.  Our paper trade will not be triggered 
until BLS breaks under today's low of $19.32.  Those looking for an 
alternate entry point could watch for a rollover from the $20.00 
level.  If this play is triggered we'll use a stop at $20.82, one 
cent above today's high.

For an annotated chart, click here:



Picked on September xxth at xx.xx
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            10/22/02 (confirmed)
 



---

ChevronTexaco - CVX - close: 70.97 change: -2.23 stop: 73.61

Company Description:
ChevronTexaco is a leader in the global energy business with wide-
ranging activities in more than 180 countries. ChevronTexaco is the 
third-largest energy company in terms of global oil and gas 
reserves (more than 11 billion barrels of oil and gas equivalent) 
and fourth largest in global oil and natural gas production (2.7 
million barrels of oil and gas equivalent per day). It has the 
capacity to refine more than 2 million barrels per day, sells more 
than 5 million barrels of fuel and products daily and owns or has 
interest in more than 25,000 retail outlets under Chevron, Texaco 
and Caltex brands.  In the United States, the company currently 
markets gasoline under the Chevron brand at 8,100 retail outlets in 
28 states, primarily in the West, Southwest and South and in the 
District of Columbia and operates six refineries.  (source: company 
press release)

Why We Like It:
Here we go again.  We were moderately successful with a technicals 
only play on oil company Ameranda Hess (AHC) and the stars have 
aligned again for a bearish move but this time we're going to use 
CVX as our mode of transportation.  As per the AHC write up, the 
price of crude oil is slowly rising and shows no signs of stopping 
but the share price of oil companies is falling and these too show 
no signs of stopping.  Please review the annotated charts we have 
listed for the patterns we are playing.  More conservative traders 
could use a move under the $70 mark to go short on CVX.  We are 
choosing to open shorts at current levels.  The stock performed a 
perfect failed rally at descending resistance.  Thus we can stick 
our stop just above Friday's high and limit our risk ($73.61).  
Short-term traders could target the $67.50 area but we are going to 
aim for a move to $65.65 or the July low to cover for a profit.

Annotated Chart - CVX compared to the OIX.X index.



Picked on September 27th at $70.97
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             07/30/02 (confirmed)
 



---

J.P.Morgan - JPM - close: 18.34 change: -0.93 stop: *text*

Company Description:
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is a leading global financial services firm 
with assets of $741 billion and operations in more than 50 
countries. With relationships with over 99% of the Fortune 1000 
companies, the firm is a leader in investment banking, asset 
management, private banking, private equity, custody and 
transaction services, and retail and middle market financial 
services. A component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, JPMorgan 
Chase is headquartered in New York and serves more than 30 million 
consumer customers and the world's most prominent corporate, 
institutional and government clients.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
A 107 year reputation doesn't last forever.  Apparently the 
excesses of the 1990's will claim at least one more victim - JPM.  
The banking business is bad already but JPM is being left out to 
dry by investors who are not willing to wait around and see where 
the next bad loan might show up.  On top of the lower M&A activity, 
the lower IPO activity and the almost dead stop in trading activity 
that is hitting most big banks, JPM is also dealing with a host of 
other issues and not the least of which are investigations by the 
feds into their dealings with the likes of Enron.  

JPM has already warned that their Q3 earnings report would be 
significantly less than their Q2 profit of 58 cents.  This 
shouldn't be a surprise.  JPM was a big lender to the telecom 
sector during the 90s and the continuing malaise that is affecting 
capital spending could have nonperforming loans to telecom related 
companies rising by more than $1 billion.  In the second quarter 
these were only $302M and are now being estimated at $1.4B.  JPM's 
CFO told Wall Street that the bank still has $9 billion in telecom 
loans and $3 billion in cable loans outstanding (Reuters).  As 
previously mentioned the trading environment has been very tough 
for banks and brokers around the globe.  According to JPM, trading 
revenues for the third quarter have crashed to about $100 million 
from the $1.1 billion seen in the second quarter.  Lets not forget 
that JPM also had and still has some significant exposure to the 
Latin American markets that threaten to crash nearly all year long.  

Due to this exposure to telecom and weak overseas economies the 
Standard & Poor's Rating Services and Fitch Ratings have downgraded 
JPM's long-term debt from Double-A to Single-A.  Not only is this a 
major black eye for the reputable bank but could raise the cost of 
doing business.  This week saw a large auction of Enron assets to 
be sold to pay creditors.  The government is still investigating 
the Enron disaster and it is unclear just how much blame and or 
liability JPM might end up holding when all is said and done.  
Finally, before we wrap up, let's not forget the rumors that JPM is 
the largest holder of gold derivatives in the world.  Rumor has it 
that most of these positions were all short.  Looking at the rise 
in gold prices and one can see the potential danger if this is 
true.

Our plan to capture any more downside weakness in JPM is as 
follows:  If and when shares of JPM trade at or below $17.99 we'll 
open our hypothetical short play.  Please note, should something 
occur that causes JPM to gap down, we'll not open the position if 
shares gap lower than $17.50.  If and when we are triggered we'll 
start the play with a stop loss at $20.01.  Our initial target will 
be the $15.00 level.  By waiting for JPM to trade below $18.00 we 
can look for confirmation as it breaks the July 2002 lows of 
$18.22.  Traders looking at a long-term chart will notice that JPM 
had support at near $17.25 back in 1994 but since the stock did not 
really see much support at its October 1998 lows of $22.50 we don't 
expect the '94 support to hold either.  Without a doubt most of the 
technical indicators are deeply oversold and due for a bounce but 
given the market's general weakness this could be a good 15% to 20% 
lower for JPM.

Annotated chart for JPM:




Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <-- see trigger
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             07/17/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Clear Channel Comm. - CCU - cls: 35.78 chg: -1.38 stop: *text*

CCU seemed strong enough on its own merits, but shares were unable 
to buck the downtrending broader market on Friday.  The stock 
pulled back by 3.7% and almost exactly mirrored the loss posted by 
the Dow Jones.  This play was never triggered because shares did 
not reach our action point at $37.51.  With the technical picture 
remaining bullish, we're still anticipating more upside from CCU.  
It was somewhat encouraging to see volume pull back today after 
rising for several sessions.  Investors don't seem to be that eager 
to take profits at current levels.  For now, we'll maintain our 
current entry strategy and look for a broader market rebound to 
emerge sometime next week.  A close below $35.00 might prompt us to 
drop this play.

Picked on September xxth at $xx.xx <-- see text
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             11/06/02 (unconfirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Alcan Inc. – AL – close: 24.90 change: -0.38 stop: *text*

One analyst viewpoint we read this weekend maintained that at this 
point in the market cycle the moves are being driven by mutual fund 
redemptions.  Wall Street has not been able to give investors any 
reason to own stocks right now.  AL is no exception.  The shabby 
economic recovery, which seems to be questioned on whether or not 
it truly exists at all on a weekly basis, is not helping the metals 
sector.  Now that shares of AL have bounced back with the market 
and failed again back under the $25 level we're going to readjust 
our entry point and stop loss.  Our new trigger to go short will be 
a move under $24.49 (but we will not go short should shares of AL 
open under $24.00 on Monday morning.  We don't want to chase it.) 
and our new stop loss, once we are triggered, will be $25.51.  
Check out the annotated chart this weekend for our notes on the 
play.  Interested traders may also want to keep an eye on Alcoa 
(NYSE:AA), which is also in decline and failing fast.  We've also 
included a Point-and-Figure chart of AL, which demonstrates its 
triple-bottom breakdown.

Annotated chart for AL:



Picked on September XXth at xx.xx
Results since picked        +0.00
Earnings Date            10/16/02 (confirmed)




---

Kimberly Clark - KMB - close: 57.45 change: -0.22 stop: 58.63

It may not have been a very convincing answer but it was an answer 
nonetheless.  Answer to what you ask?  In last night's (Thursday's) 
Premier Investor Newsletter we asked traders in KMB if they thought 
the $58.00 of resistance would hold for the stock.  KMB traded 
above this level briefly and hit a high of $58.17 before succumbing 
to the broader market weakness.  Volume was pretty strong and the 
failed rally looks like a potential entry point for new bearish 
positions.  Are there any CNBC watchers out there?  Did you hear 
the bit about KMB this morning?  Evidently some comments made by 
the socialists part in Spain may have sparked the attempted rally 
in KMB.  "Say what?" you ask.  CNBC reported that an amendment or 
idea was proposed to eliminate the 16% luxury tax on diapers in 
that country.  Does anyone know if there is a diaper tax in the 
U.S.?  If so, let us know.  Meanwhile, news has been quiet for KMB 
but the company is going to present at a Merrill Lynch conference 
in London this Tuesday, October 1st.  The newsletter is going to 
leave our stop at $58.63.  Curious about the sector strength?  
Check out the $FPP.X forest and paper products index.  We don't see 
any bullish momentum so bears will press their advantage.

Picked on September 20th at 56.85
Results since picked:       -0.60
Earnings Date            10/22/02 (unconfirmed)





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Biogen Inc. - BGEN - close: 29.39 change: -1.01 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Biogen, Inc., winner of the U.S. National Medal of Technology, is 
a biotechnology company principally engaged in discovering and 
developing drugs for human healthcare through genetic 
engineering. Headquartered in Cambridge, MA, the Company's 
revenues are generated from worldwide sales of AVONEX® 
(interferon beta-1a) for treatment of relapsing forms of multiple 
sclerosis, and from the sales by licensees of a number of 
products. Biogen's research and development activities are 
focused on novel products to treat inflammatory and autoimmune 
diseases, neurological diseases, cancer, fibrosis and congestive 
heart failure. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
As our resident technical expert, Mr. Bailey, would say, it's 
always high-risk shorting biotech stocks.  Of course that comment 
comes from a fundamental perspective not a technical one.  The 
risk is that one day, one of these companies is really going to 
come out with a cure for cancer or the common cold and shares 
will rocket higher so fast that shorts will get hammered.  While 
we always maintain the rigid use of stop losses some traders may 
not feel comfortable shorting biotechs and for that reason we 
would encourage those readers to pass on to the next play.  Per 
the common relationship between stock and sector-specific index, 
shares of BGEN look very similar to the Biotech Index (BTK.X) 
except that BGEN is reaching new relative lows while the BTK is 
not.  It's a common strategy to pick on the weaker stocks in a 
declining sector and given the new failure back under the $30 
level this looks like an entry point for BGEN bears.  Of course 
given the longer-term downtrend many of the technical indicators 
are already oversold but that doesn't mean the stock can't keep 
falling.  We've confirmed the breakdown on the PnF chart, which 
is showing a triple-bottom breakdown.  We've also confirmed the 
breakdown on the weekly chart for BGEN.  Our plan will be to use 
a trigger to go short just under the recent lows at $28.69.  
Should BGEN trade this level or lower we'll initiate our play.  
Take note - should BGEN gap down below $28.00 on Monday we will 
not open the play.  Once we are triggered we'll start the play 
with a stop loss at $32.01 or about 45 above today's high.  More 
aggressive bears who are not willing to pass up on the 75 cents 
we're willing to wait could look for positions with BGEN under 
the $30 mark.  Keep in mind that earnings are about two weeks 
away.

Annotated chart for BGEN:



Picked on September XXth at $xx.xx <-- see trigger 
Results since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date             10/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 




===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


Total System Services - TSS - cls: 13.95 chg: -0.49 stop: 15.56

If you were looking for a failed rally at $15 you're probably 
still waiting.  Shares of TSS opened lower this morning and 
quickly fell back under the $14 level as the broader markets gave 
up ground ahead of the weekend.  Now that TSS is back under the 
$14 mark we do feel more comfortable in suggesting traders 
consider new entry points based on their own risk tolerance.  The 
short-term and longer-term downtrends remain intact for TSS and 
the fact that the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite closed under the 
1200 level on Friday does not bode well for the bulls.  We're 
going to leave our stop at $15.56 for now but more much 
conservative traders could attempt to reduce risk by using a stop 
just above $15.00 or even above Thursday's high of $14.50.  With 
all the evidence that tech spending is still not picking up then 
the downtrend for TSS looks dire indeed.  Our short-term and 
currently official profit target to exit the play is $12.09.  
However, more longer-term traders and PnF believers could target 
the current PnF vertical count of $10.00.  FYI, the previous PnF 
price target appeared to be $5.00 but we suspect the support 
shown back in 1997 at the $12 level might be enough to slow the 
descent.

Picked on September 23rd at $14.49 
Results since picked:        +0.54
Earnings Date             07/16/02 (confirmed)
 




==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) stock split section.
==================================================================

===============
ST Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Right Mgmt Consultants - RMCI - cls: 24.24 chg: -0.59 stop: 22.99 

The overhead bearish resistance on the PnF chart is proving to be 
tougher than bulls expected.  Shares of RMCI have been in retreat 
after trading to the $26 level.  So far the consolidation has 
been mostly sideways between $26 and $24 but with the Dow's 295 
point loss on Friday, RMCI is much closer to the $24 level.  
Volume was pretty light today at 68K shares which doesn't give a 
lot of credence to today's decline but price action reigns 
supreme.  We're going to keep our stop at $22.99 but if RMCI 
closes under the $24 mark we'll probably reconsider and close the 
play.  At this moment the stock has an opportunity to bounce off 
$24 as support.  If this occurs then a potential split run into 
the stock's upcoming 3:2 split on Oct. 15th might not be such a 
fantasy after all.  Use caution and look for confirmation before 
initiating a new position.

Picked on September 20th at $25.80 
Gain since picked:           -1.56
Earnings Date             10/21/02 (confirmed)





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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

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Copyright © 2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 09-27-2002
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright © 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of September 30th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


==================================================
Market Watch for the week of September 30th
==================================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

WAG    Walgreen              Mon, Sep 30  -----N/A-----       0.25


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

PBG    Pepsi Bottling Group  Tue, Oct 01  Before the Bell     0.61
SVU    Supervalu             Tue, Oct 01  After the Bell      0.44


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

ATYT   ATI Technologies      Wed, Oct 02  -----N/A-----       0.02
CM     Coles Myer            Wed, Oct 02  After the Bell       N/A
FDO    Family $ Stores, Inc. Wed, Oct 02  Before the Bell     0.24
THC    Tenet Healthcare      Wed, Oct 02  Before the Bell     0.65


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

EMMS   Emmis Communications  Thu, Oct 03  -----N/A-----       0.02
MAR    Marriott Int’l        Thu, Oct 03  -----N/A-----       0.42


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

AA     ALCOA                 Fri, Oct 04  -----N/A-----       0.28


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

None


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Next week is packed with economic reports.  Income and spending 
numbers come out on Monday.  Auto sales and construction spending 
on Tuesday.  ISM services on Thursday and more employment reports 
on Friday.  Despite these reports the biggest market moving events 
will continue to be earnings warnings and misses.

==============================================================
                       -For-           

Monday, 09/30/02
----------------
Personal Income (BB)    Aug  Forecast:   0.5%  Previous:     0.0%
Personal Spending (BB)  Aug  Forecast:   0.5%  Previous:     1.0%
Chicago PMI (DM)        Sep  Forecast:   53.0  Previous:     54.9


Tuesday, 10/01/02
-----------------
Auto Sales (NA)         Sep  Forecast:   6.1M  Previous:     6.6M
Truck Sales (NA)        Sep  Forecast:   7.8M  Previous:     8.8M
ISM Index (DM)          Sep  Forecast:   51.0  Previous:     50.5
Constrction Spending(DM)Aug  Forecast:  -0.1%  Previous:     0.0%


Wednesday, 10/02/02
-------------------
None


Thursday, 10/03/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   09/28  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:     406K
ISM Services (DM)       Sep  Forecast:   51.4  Previous:     50.9
Factory Orders (DM)     Aug  Forecast:  -1.5%  Previous:     4.4%


Friday, 10/04/02
----------------
Nonfarm Payrolls (BB)   Sep  Forecast:    15K  Previous:      39K
Unemployment Rate (BB)  Sep  Forecast:   5.9%  Previous:     5.7%
Average Workweek (BB)   Sep  Forecast:   34.1  Previous:     34.1
Hourly Earnings (BB)    Sep  Forecast:   0.3%  Previous:     0.3%



Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available



==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MHK     Mohawk Industries          50.05     +1.90
IFC     Irwin Financial Corp       16.90     +0.99

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

.. none..

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BSX     Boston Scientific          31.48     +1.49
MCHP    Microchip Technology       20.91     +1.13
UHS     Universal Health Services  51.40     +1.28
STE     Steris Corp                23.75     +1.37
DP      Diagnostic Products        46.52     +1.17
TTWO    Take Two Interactive       29.45     +1.85
GETY    Getty Images               20.92     +1.12
DIAN    Dianon Systems Inc         46.10     +2.74
MTEC    Meridian Medical Tech      34.97     +1.54

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SBC     SBC Communications         20.15     -1.75
MO      Philip Morris Co           37.86     -4.87
KFT     Kraft Foods                36.50     -1.17
WYE     Wyeth                      31.10     -7.35
PPG     PPG Industries             46.07     -1.43
LTR     Loews Corp                 42.82     -2.93
CB      Chubb Corp                 53.91     -5.07
MAY     May Dept Stores            23.26     -1.74
FO      Fortune Brands             47.02     -2.10
RJR     RJ Reynolds Tobacco        40.16     -6.39
CPS     ChoicePoint Inc            32.77     -3.73
TECD    Tech Data Corp             27.25     -1.13
MTD     Mettler Toledo Intl Inc    26.66     -1.19

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

..NONE..


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=================================================================
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=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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