PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 10-07-2002 section 1 of 2 Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: The Floor Drops Out Watch List: BDK, COF, HD, IDPH, NKE, SMH, and more... Play of the Day: Tim-ber! ****************************************************************** MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ****************************************************************** 10-07-2002 High Low Volume Advance/Decl DJIA 7422.84 - 105.56 7637.91 7404.94 1787 mln 303/1460 NASDAQ 1119.40 - 20.50 1145.79 1113.36 1406 mln 385/1008 S&P 100 396.15 - 7.07 408.26 394.80 totals 688/2468 S&P 500 785.28 - 15.30 808.21 782.96 RUS 2000 338.29 - 9.69 347.98 337.57 DJ TRANS 2058.57 - 79.11 2139.48 2050.92 VIX 49.18 + 2.90 49.71 46.28 VIXN 62.32 + 2.04 62.48 59.69 Put/Call Ratio 1.04 ****************************************************************** =========== Market Wrap =========== The Floor Drops Out by Steven Price I have always tried to trade what I see, rather than what I feel. I kept seeing repeated support at the 7500 level in the Dow, the 800 level in the S&P 500 (SPX.X) and the 400 level in the S&P 100 (OEX.X). However, the market has "felt" bearish. Now that we have broken these levels and closed below them, what seemed an appropriate level for a bounce has wilted. There are still some intraday lows below us in the SPX and OEX, that could provide some support, but that is looking less likely now that we have closed below the aforementioned levels. In the Dow, we are below July levels and must look back to 1998 for support at the 7400 level and then the 7000 level back in 1997. The breakdown below these levels is significant, but what could be even more significant is whether we now find resistance here. Look for intraday resistance for evidence of another leg down. Chart of The SPX (S&P 500) and OEX (S&P 100) Chart of the Dow The S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) once again sought out new lows today. The Kbw Bank Index (BKX.X) has not yet crossed its July low, but is heading in that direction. We have now reached a crucial level in support for the group that can be seen in the weekly chart below. If support at this level of 235 in the BIX is broken, expect another quick drop to around 210. The Wall Street Journal reported that J.P. Morgan (JPM) is getting ready to cut more jobs. Last month, JPM announced that its earnings would be significantly lower than expectations, partially as a result of trading losses and bad loans to the telecom sector. Now the speculation is that it will be cutting jobs from the mergers and acquisitions, private banking and underwriting departments, and is mulling about 4,000 job cuts. The company releases earnings on October 16, which would be the most likely time for the official announcement. Similar reports have circulated about Merrill Lynch, which has already cut about 15,000 jobs this year, and Credit Suisse First Boston and Goldman Sachs. Investment banking activity has shrunk considerably, with very few mergers and IPOs taking a chance in the current market environment. In the late nineties, these banks expanded rapidly in those departments to keep up with demand at that time and are now severely overstaffed. What is equally as troubling is the pattern that followed JPM's announcement about non-performing debt. Last week, Comerica (CMA), Bank of New York (BK), and Northern Trust (NTRS) also issued warnings related to bad loans. It will very difficult to get a significant rebound in the broader markets if the banks are just now starting to release details of how the recent economic downturn has caught up to their bottom line. While BK identified the telecoms as a source of bad loans, as well, Comerica cited loans to the retail, automotive and manufacturing sector. Comerica and Northern Trust, which are regional banks, showed us that it is not just the big banks having problems. Goldman Sachs downgraded several specialty finance stocks, due to a lower intermediate term outlook on credit, housing and growth. Those stocks include Americredit (ACF), which concentrates on auto financing, Capital One (COF), which focuses on credit card lending and Household International (HI), which has both consumer and credit card divisions. Daily Chart of the S&P Bank Index Weekly Chart of the S&P Bank Index The retail sector seems to be picking up steam to the downside as we approach the holiday season. Holiday sales account for a large percentage of the year's profits for most retailers and the summer and fall sales warnings are bringing ominous projections for the winter. Over the summer, retailing giants such as Wal-Mart (WMT) and Federated (FD), which owns Bloomingdale's and Macy's, repeatedly missed same- store sales numbers. We either got sales at the low end of projections, or complete misses as the summer turned to fall. The slowdown was repeatedly blamed on warm weather keeping shoppers outside, rather than in stores, and the lack of need for cool weather clothing. The slowdown was followed by warnings last week from Aeropostale (ARO), citing a lack of customers in shopping malls, and Wet Seal (WTSLA), both teen-oriented clothing stores. Today, Sears (S) warned that problems with its credit division would lower third quarter and full year results. They tried to spin this by saying that strength on the retail side helped offset issues at its financial services division, however, if customers can't pay for the goods they purchased, I'm not sure how strong that retail side can really be. In light of other retailer's warnings, it is also hard to imagine how only Sears is doing well. Investors didn't buy that line, either, as they sold off retail stocks across the board. As we head toward the holidays, the West Coast dock lockout is starting to have a more pronounced effect, as well. While the White House has decided to get involved in the dispute, there are a couple of issues that are hurting retailers. First, simply the lack of goods that can be put on shelves leads to lower sales. But there is also the issue of higher alternative transportation costs, as full overseas charter flight fees have increased by $100,000.00 per trip in some cases. Current higher fuel costs don't help the cost of air transport, either. In addition to those costs, there will now be a delay in getting these ships back overseas to pick up more goods to be delivered closer to the holiday season, which will extend the effect for several months after any settlement. The Retail Index (RLX.X) has now broken below its July closing low and shows little sign of slowing down. There will likely be a boost to the sector when the lockout is settled, but the damage has been done. The lockdown is also leading to layoffs for workers used to ship and stock goods, and hitting U.S. agriculture, which relies on the ports to export food products. Another sector that has led the current slide is the semiconductor group, which reflects overall tech demand. It seems almost redundant to talk about more downgrades to this group, but that is what happened again today, as Prudential cut estimates on several chip stocks. Prudential downgraded its Communications Semiconductor rating to Market Underperform from Market Outperform. Individual stocks that saw cuts were Broadcom (BRCM), Cypress Semiconductor (CY), LSI Logic (LSI), Emcore (EMKR) and Microtune (TUNE). The Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX.X) sought out yet another 4-year low and looks like it is headed to 200 before finding any real level of technical support. In fact, Merrill Lynch was left holding the bag and may become an involuntary owner of up to 18% Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing (CHRT), as it was the lead underwriter of a $633 million rights issue that was vastly under subscribed. The software industry got a mixed message, as well. While Oracle (ORCL) said it expects a recovery in 2003, it also said that it did not expect things to get better in the short-term. This sounds like pretty much the same rhetoric we have been hearing since the market started dropping in 2000. Chart of the SOX American Airlines' parent AMR Corp (AMR) said it will take a $990 million charge to write down the carrier's entire goodwill balance. This basically measures the amount AMR overpaid in the acquisitions of AirCal, Reno Air, AMR Eagle and TWA. On the positive side, Cambridge Consumer Credit reported that Americans are spending less on their credit cards. The index, which dropped 3 points in September to 53, surveys consumers to find out if they have increased or paid off debt in the last month, what they plan on doing with their debt in the next month, and in the next six months. The reality gap, which measures the difference between what consumers said they would pay off and what they actually did, dropped 3 points as well. A Federal Reserve report also indicated a slowdown in consumer credit. The Market Volatility Index (VIX) is once again approaching the 50 level, closing today at 49.18. The last 3 times we have hit 50 in the VIX, market rallies have followed. While these rallies followed volatility spikes, it is certainly worth noting that a VIX over 50 has been the precursor to temporary bottoms. Of course, it has usually stretched a bit over the 50 level before that rally has taken place. See the charts below for a comparison of the VIX and the Dow. Charts of the Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) and the Dow All signs are certainly bearish and I would be extremely careful with long positions. Now that we have broken the July lows and support levels, it seems that we will most likely re-test 7000 in the Dow. The previous downside-measuring objective discussed in this column based on the head and shoulders break was right around 7100, and I would look for a slowdown at that level. That would probably put the VIX in the high 50s again as well, the point at which the market previously bounced. With President Bush's speech about Iraq tonight, we should get a good look at just how the markets will react to his plan. If the war rhetoric heats up, we will most likely head down in the morning. I'm pretty sure he will make some positive remarks about the economy and defend the impact a war would have on us. However, if form holds, tough talk from the President should send us down tomorrow. Steven Price ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Black & Decker - BDK - close: 38.86 change: -2.64 WHAT TO WATCH: After spending the past week tooling around under the $44.00 region, shares of BDK sold off sharply from the 50-day moving average ($44.14), which coincides with bearish p-n-f resistance. The stock broke below the $40.00 support level on Monday, backed by the strongest volume since July. The bearish MACD and daily stochastics are pointing towards a further decline. Although the July lows near $35.50 may offer some support, continued broader market weakness could help to push BDK down to the $34.00 region. Short-term traders can evaluate entries if shares fall under $38.61. --- Capital One Financial - COF - close: 28.06 change: -2.32 WHAT TO WATCH: Take a gander at the daily chart for COF, and you'll see that shares have traced a head-and-shoulders pattern. Bulls may have been looking for a bounce from whole-number support at $30.00, but those hopes were dashed on Monday when the stock was hit with a downgrade from Goldman Sachs. The firm reduced Capital One's rating from "market outperform" to "market perform," based on credit quality concerns and the overall economic slowdown. At this point it appears COF may soon retest its 52-week lows near $24.00. The technical picture is worsening and there are no clear levels of underlying support. Short entries could be targeted on a violation of today's low ($27.82) or a failed rally from the $30.00 area. --- Home Depot - HD - close: 24.21 change: -1.59 WHAT TO WATCH: A "Now Hiring" banner is hanging on the Sears store next to the Premier Investor offices. That's somewhat interesting, in light of the company's earnings warning on Monday. Sears said that the slowing economy and weakness in its credit card business would result in lower-than-expected earnings for the third quarter. This news had investors fleeing the retail sector in droves. Dow component HD was hit especially hard, as shares gave back more than 6%. The stock is now trading at levels not seen since 1998. Glancing at the weekly chart, we don't see any support until the $21.00 area. The stock is looking oversold, but today's close below near-term support at $24.50 could bring more bears off the fence. Short-term traders can think about getting short if HD breaks under $24.00. On a related note, BBY and LOW might also present good shorting opportunities in the retail sector. --- IDEC Pharmaceuticals - IDPH - close: 37.56 change: +1.16 WHAT TO WATCH: Aggressive traders seeking a long play may want to take a look at IDPH. On Friday the stock broke below near-term support and tagged a new multi-month low. Pretty bearish, eh? However, the stock came to a dead stop at the bottom of its two- month descending channel. Shares bounced nicely from this level on Monday, outperforming the NASDAQ and posting a 3.1% gain. Interestingly, the p-n-f chart shows that IDPH briefly pierced its current bullish support trend for the first time. Point-and- figure traders may recall the familiar adage: "The first test of bullish support is usually the most painful for the bears." Short-covering could really take hold if the daily stochastics start to rebound from their current oversold levels. Watch for a move above today's high ($38.40) to clear the way for a rally to the top of the channel near $42.00. --- Nike Inc. - NKE - close: 39.96 change: -1.98 WHAT TO WATCH: NKE has been trading with a bearish bias over the past week. In addition to general negativity in the retail sector, shares are also being pressured by the dock workers lockout on the West Coast. Analysts believe NKE is particularly vulnerable to strike-related problems because the majority of its manufacturing is done overseas. Technically, it looks like a breakdown could be in progress. NKE closed just below critical support at $40.00. This could result in a test of the next level of historical support at $35.00. The rising volume, triple-top p-n-f sell signal, and bearish MACD crossover are pointing towards a continued decline. As a matter of fact, we considered adding NKE as a short play tonight until the White House announced it would take the first steps towards enacting the Taft-Hartley act. This may lead to a relief rally on Tuesday. We'll re-evaluate NKE as a short after the market digests these new developments. If shares do continue lower, a move below $39.88 would provide a possible action point to go short. --- Pitney Bowes - PBI - close: 29.51 change: -1.55 WHAT TO WATCH: PBI is falling like a rock! The stock is mired in a six-week downtrend, and the $30.00 support level has just given way. Shares certainly look oversold on the bar chart, but the falling daily stochastics (5,3,3) indicate that PBI has more room to fall. Short entries can be targeted on move below $29.46 or a failed rally at $30.00. The weekly chart shows that shares could eventually drop to the $25-$27 region. Remember to keep tight stops to avoid getting trapped in a short-covering rally! --- QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 29.49 change: +0.23 WHAT TO WATCH: Here's one to keep in mind for when the tech sector finally rebounds. Over the past two weeks QCOM has shown incredible relative strength versus the NASDAQ. The $30.00 mark has thus far prevented any sort of sustained rally. A move above this level would be a signal to go long. QCOM has staggered resistance at 50 cent intervals in the $30-$32 region, but given enough time, shares could eventually reach the $33 level. A trade at $32 would create a spread-triple breakout on the point- and-figure chart. --- Semiconductor HOLDRs - SMH - close: 18.25 change: -0.46 WHAT TO WATCH: Another day, another brokerage downgrade of the chip sector. Today it was Prudential who provided more fodder for the bears, as the firm cut its ratings on several semiconductor stocks. The SOX.X has fallen to yet another multi- year and is now trading at a previously unthinkable 220. Oversold as it may be, nimble bears may be able to squeeze more profits out of the sector. Traders seem almost intent on taking the SOX.X down to crucial support at 200. With the SMH also breaking to fresh lows, those with an aggressive strategy could target entries at current levels. We'd be looking for a near- term decline to the $16.00-$16.50 region. Other possible shorts in the chip group include MXIM and XLNX. --- Vulcan Materials - VMC - close: 33.27 change: -0.75 WHAT TO WATCH: The past three weeks have not been kind to shareholders of this construction materials company. VMC has fallen steadily with the Dow Jones and shares seem to be picking up downward momentum. Toady's breakdown below the $34.00 support level has opened the door for a move to the $31.00 region, near the 1998 lows. Short entries with a good risk/reward ratio could be gauged at current levels, with a stop just above today's high at $34.33. P-n-f chartists will note that VMC is currently on a triple-bottom sell signal. ========================= Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH non-tech play) ========================= Kimberly Clark - KMB - close: 55.32 change: -0.56 stop: 58.63 Company Description: Kimberly-Clark Corporation is a leading global consumer products company. Its tissue, personal care and health care products are manufactured in 42 countries and sold in more than 150. Kimberly- Clark is home to some of the world's most trusted and recognized brands, including Kleenex, Scott, Huggies, Pull-Ups, Kotex and Depend. (source: company press release) - ORIGINAL WRITE UP: September 19th, 2002 - Why We Like It: The FPP.X forest/paper products index was ripped to shreds after it gave a triple-bottom sell signal earlier this month. The latest broader market decline has really taken its toll on the group. Last week's rollover from 300 led to a heavy sell-off that's taken the FPP below its 2001 lows. Sector leader IP has led the decline, along with similar breakdowns in BCC in WY. KMB isn't yet trading at 52-week lows, but it may only be a matter of time before shareholders suffer that fate. After rebounding from its July lows, the stock spent more than six weeks trading in a narrow range between $58.00-$61.50. Slapping a retracement bracket from the May high ($66.79) to July low ($52.45) shows that this range was dictated by the 61% and 38% fibonacci levels. Perhaps market makers were using this as a way to manage risk. The recent breakdown below support at $58.00 (and the 50-dma at $58.61) suggests that institutional traders now have a sell-side bias. With no immediate underlying support levels, KMB could be on a crash course with its July low at $52.45. As far as this play is concerned, we'll target a move to our exit target at $52.51. Although the daily stochastics have already reached oversold levels, the recent breakdown, rolling MACD, and overall sector weakness are indications that the stock has more downside potential. Longer-term traders can also be encouraged by the falling weekly stochastics. In order to ensure that shares have broken to new relative lows, we won't activate this play until KMB trades at or below $56.85. Our stop-loss will be set at $58.63, just above the 50-dma. More conservative traders could use a stop just above yesterday's high of $58.24. - Most recent update: October 4th, 2002 - Finally we get a move out of KMB. The stock traded to a new relative low on Friday before bouncing back a bit from its lows. We're willing to keep the stock on the play list for now but would encourage caution on any new positions. Here's why: the $FPP.X forest and paper products index fell hard again on Friday and appears to be near the bottom of its descending channel. A few stocks in the group are at recent lows and look like they could bounce as well. Should a bounce occur then bears looking for shorts might get a better entry point on KMB (or at least we'll get an up tick to enter those new positions). Of course the Industrials and the SPX like they could bounce as well and we'd rather not initiate new short positions in front of a potential short-term rally. Continue to monitor KMB and if the sector and stock show weakness despite any broader market strength then adjust your strategy accordingly. - Play-of-the-Day Comments: October 7th, 2002 - In Friday's update for this play we talked about the possibility of the FPP.X forest/paper products index bouncing from the bottom of its descending channel. Well, that channel was completely abandoned on Monday. The FPP plummeted by 4.5% and closed under its 2000 low of 234. A test of the all-time lows near 216 could be imminent. With all this sector negativity, it's nice to see that KMB is finally starting to decline. Shares hit a multi- month closing low today and moved toward our profit-target at $52.51. The descending oscillators and bearish bar chart indicate that this level will eventually be reached. Short-term traders can target new entries if KMB continues to drop from current levels. A failed rally near $56.00 might also offer a bearish entry point. Picked on September 20th at 56.85 Results since picked: +1.53 Earnings Date 10/22/02 (unconfirmed) ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2002 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 10-07-2002 section 2 of 2 Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Net Bulls Stop Adjustments: ACS (bearish) Closed Bearish Plays: MERQ Stock Bottom / Active Trader Stop Adjustments: MWRK, FLIR, LNC, GM (bearish) Closed Bearish Plays: EXPE High Risk/Reward Stop Adjustments: BGEN (bearish) Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== =============== NB Play Updates =============== Stop Adjustments ---------------- Affiliated Comp. - ACS - cls: 36.03 chg: -2.12 stop: 36.51 *new* The PR department over at ACS was touting some positive comments from Forbes Magazine on Monday. For the second year in a row, Forbes said Affiliated Computer Services was "one of the most promising business process outsourcing companies." That's a pretty nice accolade, but it didn't do much to help the stock. Shares of ACS sank by 5.5% and reached another relative low. Premier Investor is currently up 12.2% on this play, and conservative traders may want to consider taking gains off the table if shares bounce from current levels. With the stock quickly approaching our exit price of $35.50, we're going to lower our stop to $36.51. This should protect a gain of 11.0%. =============== NB Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Mercury Interactive - MERQ - cls: 15.73 chg: -1.07 stop: 18.31 This short play got a shot in the arm today when UBS Warburg released some negative comments on Mercury Interactive. Citing a tepid global recovery in the IT sector (gee...that sounds familiar), the firm reduced MERQ's 12-month price target from $32 to $26. The $26.00 range probably sounds pretty good to investors right now, with the stock trading near $16.00. Monday's action saw shares fall by 6.3% and hit our profit-target at $15.51. Our play was closed for a gain of 13.7%. Traders who are still short should be watching for a breakdown below psychological support at $15.00. In addition to new 52-week lows, such a move would also trigger a double-bottom sell signal on the p-n-f chart. The bearish crossover on the daily stochastic oscillator (5,3,3) bodes well for a continued decline. Picked on September 30th at $17.98 Gain since picked: +2.47 Earnings Date 10/17/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== =============== AT Play Updates =============== Stop Adjustments ---------------- FLIR Systems - FLIR - cls: 28.22 chg: -4.51 stop: 29.01 *new* Shares of FLIR were hammered for a 13.7% loss on Monday. Shares were weak from the opening bell, but the bears really piled on after the $31.00 level gave way in afternoon trading. Our search for news to explain the decline came up empty-handed. Perhaps Wall Street knows something we don't? In any case, this action is very encouraging. Although we're lowering our stop to $29.01, those willing to give FLIR a little more wiggle room could use a stop just above the $30.00 mark. At this time we're also going to set an official profit-target at $25.51. This play will be closed if shares trade at or below that level. --- General Motors - GM - close: 35.88 change: -0.54 stop: 40.01 *new GM followed the Dow lower today and posted a 1.4% loss. Although we've inched our stop-loss down to $40.01, more conservative traders could use a stop just above today's high at $37.24. Those with a short-term approach may want consider taking gains off the table if GM bounces from the $35 level. --- Lincoln National - LNC - cls: 25.91 chg: -1.39 stop: 27.68 *new* Continued weakness in the insurance group helped to sink LNC on Monday. Shares dropped by more than 5% and reached another 52- week low. The stock closed at its worst levels of the session, which bodes well for further weakness on Tuesday. LNC is quickly approaching our profit-target at $25.06. We've lowered our stop to $27.68, just above today's high. Those looking to lock in a larger gain can consider taking profits if shares bounce from current levels. --- Mothers Work - MWRK - close: 29.50 change: -2.91 stop: 30.06 *new Today's earnings warning from Sears sent the entire retail group spiraling lower. MWRK has hit particularly hard, as shares finished with a loss of nearly 9%. Support at $30.00 was violated on the third-strongest volume of the year. That's a very positive development for this short play, so we feel pretty good about the prospects of MWRK reaching our profit-target at $26.60. Our tight stop at $30.06 should protect a gain of roughly 10%. =============== AT Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Expedia Inc. - EXPE - close: 40.87 change: -2.88 stop: 48.06 Online travel stocks continued to trade in a bearish fashion on Monday. EXPE, TSG, and ROOM all underperformed the broader market and fell to relative lows. The bears really asserted themselves in EXPE, with shares breaking below previous support in the $41-$41-75 region. This has set the stage for a test of support at $40.00. However, given the stock's oversold nature (almost a 20% loss in just four days!), it would not be surprising to see shares bounce from current levels. Rather than lower our stop and wait to see if support will hold, we're simply going to close the play at today's closing price ($40.87). That represents a profit of 11.2% for this paper trade. Our longer- term outlook is still bearish for EXPE, and we'll strongly consider another short play if shares bounce back to the $44-$45 area. Picked on October 2nd at $46.06 Results since picked: +5.19 Earnings Date 10/23/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section ================================================================== =============== HR Play Updates =============== Stop Adjustments ---------------- Biogen Inc. - BGEN - close: 29.19 change: +0.23 stop: 30.06 *new* Our patience is being tested by BGEN. The stock isn't exactly exploding to the upside, but the recent sideways action has frustrated our bearish aspirations. Shares have shown good relative strength versus the NASDAQ, indicating that a powerful bounce could materialize if the biotech sector catches a bid. If this is the case, our stop at $30.06 should minimize upside risk. ================= Trading Ideas ================= This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change TCLP TC Pipelines 27.45 +0.55 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change
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