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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 10/07/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Monday 10-07-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      The Floor Drops Out
Watch List:       BDK, COF, HD, IDPH, NKE, SMH, and more...
Play of the Day:  Tim-ber!


******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
10-07-2002                High    Low     Volume Advance/Decl
DJIA     7422.84 - 105.56 7637.91 7404.94  1787 mln   303/1460
NASDAQ   1119.40 -  20.50 1145.79 1113.36  1406 mln   385/1008
S&P 100   396.15 -   7.07  408.26  394.80   totals    688/2468
S&P 500   785.28 -  15.30  808.21  782.96
RUS 2000  338.29 -   9.69  347.98  337.57
DJ TRANS 2058.57 -  79.11 2139.48  2050.92
VIX        49.18 +   2.90   49.71  46.28
VIXN       62.32 +   2.04   62.48  59.69
Put/Call Ratio 1.04
******************************************************************


===========
Market Wrap
===========

The Floor Drops Out

by Steven Price

I have always tried to trade what I see, rather than what I feel.  I
kept seeing repeated support at the 7500 level in the Dow, the 800
level in the S&P 500 (SPX.X) and the 400 level in the S&P 100 (OEX.X).
However, the market has "felt" bearish.  Now that we have broken these
levels and closed below them, what seemed an appropriate level for a
bounce has wilted. There are still some intraday lows below us in the
SPX and OEX, that could provide some support, but that is looking less
likely now that we have closed below the aforementioned levels. In the
Dow, we are below July levels and must look back to 1998 for support at
the 7400 level and then the 7000 level back in 1997. The breakdown
below these levels is significant, but what could be even more
significant is whether we now find resistance here.  Look for intraday
resistance for evidence of another leg down.

Chart of The SPX (S&P 500) and OEX (S&P 100)


Chart of the Dow


The S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) once again sought out new lows today. The
Kbw Bank Index (BKX.X) has not yet crossed its July low, but is heading
in that direction. We have now reached a crucial level in support for
the group that can be seen in the weekly chart below.  If support at
this level of 235 in the BIX is broken, expect another quick drop to
around 210.  The Wall Street Journal reported that J.P. Morgan  (JPM)
is getting ready to cut more jobs.  Last month, JPM announced that its
earnings would be significantly lower than expectations, partially as a
result of trading losses and bad loans to the telecom sector.  Now the
speculation is that it will be cutting jobs from the mergers and
acquisitions, private banking and underwriting departments, and is
mulling about 4,000 job cuts. The company releases earnings on October
16, which would be the most likely time for the official announcement.
Similar reports have circulated about Merrill Lynch, which has already
cut about 15,000 jobs this year, and Credit Suisse First Boston and
Goldman Sachs.  Investment banking activity has shrunk considerably,
with very few mergers and IPOs taking a chance in the current market
environment. In the late nineties, these banks expanded rapidly in
those departments to keep up with demand at that time and are now
severely overstaffed. What is equally as troubling is the pattern that
followed JPM's announcement about non-performing debt.  Last week,
Comerica (CMA), Bank of New York (BK), and Northern Trust (NTRS) also
issued warnings related to bad loans.  It will very difficult to get a
significant rebound in the broader markets if the banks are just now
starting to release details of how the recent economic downturn has
caught up to their bottom line.  While BK identified the telecoms as a
source of bad loans, as well, Comerica cited loans to the retail,
automotive and manufacturing sector.  Comerica and Northern Trust,
which are regional banks, showed us that it is not just the big banks
having problems.  Goldman Sachs downgraded several specialty finance
stocks, due to a lower intermediate term outlook on credit, housing and
growth.  Those stocks include Americredit (ACF), which concentrates on
auto financing, Capital One (COF), which focuses on credit card lending
and Household International (HI), which has both consumer and credit
card divisions.

Daily Chart of the S&P Bank Index


Weekly Chart of the S&P Bank Index



The retail sector seems to be picking up steam to the downside as we
approach the holiday season.  Holiday sales account for a large
percentage of the year's profits for most retailers and the summer and
fall sales warnings are bringing ominous projections for the winter.
Over the summer, retailing giants such as Wal-Mart (WMT) and Federated
(FD), which owns Bloomingdale's and Macy's, repeatedly missed same-
store sales numbers.  We either got sales at the low end of
projections, or complete misses as the summer turned to fall.   The
slowdown was repeatedly blamed on warm weather keeping shoppers
outside, rather than in stores, and the lack of need for cool weather
clothing.  The slowdown was followed by warnings last week from
Aeropostale (ARO), citing a lack of customers in shopping malls, and
Wet Seal (WTSLA), both teen-oriented clothing stores.  Today, Sears (S)
warned that problems with its credit division would lower third quarter
and full year results.  They tried to spin this by saying that strength
on the retail side helped offset issues at its financial services
division, however, if customers can't pay for the goods they purchased,
I'm not sure how strong that retail side can really be. In light of
other retailer's warnings, it is also hard to imagine how only Sears is
doing well.  Investors didn't buy that line, either, as they sold off
retail stocks across the board. As we head toward the holidays, the
West Coast dock lockout is starting to have a more pronounced effect,
as well. While the White House has decided to get involved in the
dispute, there are a couple of issues that are hurting retailers.
First, simply the lack of goods that can be put on shelves leads to
lower sales.  But there is also the issue of higher alternative
transportation costs, as full overseas charter flight fees have
increased by $100,000.00 per trip in some cases. Current higher fuel
costs don't help the cost of air transport, either. In addition to
those costs, there will now be a delay in getting these ships back
overseas to pick up more goods to be delivered closer to the holiday
season, which will extend the effect for several months after any
settlement. The Retail Index (RLX.X) has now broken below its July
closing low and shows little sign of slowing down.  There will likely
be a boost to the sector when the lockout is settled, but the damage
has been done.

The lockdown is also leading to layoffs for workers used to ship and
stock goods, and hitting U.S. agriculture, which relies on the ports to
export food products.

Another sector that has led the current slide is the semiconductor
group, which reflects overall tech demand.  It seems almost redundant
to talk about more downgrades to this group, but that is what happened
again today, as Prudential cut estimates on several chip stocks.
Prudential downgraded its Communications Semiconductor rating to Market
Underperform from Market Outperform. Individual stocks that saw cuts
were Broadcom (BRCM), Cypress Semiconductor (CY), LSI Logic (LSI),
Emcore (EMKR) and Microtune (TUNE). The Semiconductor Sector Index
(SOX.X) sought out yet another 4-year low and looks like it is headed
to 200 before finding any real level of technical support. In fact,
Merrill Lynch was left holding the bag and may become an involuntary
owner of up to 18% Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing (CHRT), as it
was the lead underwriter of a $633 million rights issue that was vastly
under subscribed. The software industry got a mixed message, as well.
While Oracle (ORCL) said it expects a recovery in 2003, it also said
that it did not expect things to get better in the short-term.  This
sounds like pretty much the same rhetoric we have been hearing since
the market started dropping in 2000.

Chart of the SOX


American Airlines' parent AMR Corp (AMR) said it will take a $990
million charge to write down the carrier's entire goodwill balance.
This basically measures the amount AMR overpaid in the acquisitions of
AirCal, Reno Air, AMR Eagle and TWA.

On the positive side, Cambridge Consumer Credit reported that Americans
are spending less on their credit cards.  The index, which dropped 3
points in September to 53, surveys consumers to find out if they have
increased or paid off debt in the last month, what they plan on doing
with their debt in the next month, and in the next six months.  The
reality gap, which measures the difference between what consumers said
they would pay off and what they actually did, dropped 3 points as
well.  A Federal Reserve report also indicated a slowdown in consumer
credit.

The Market Volatility Index (VIX) is once again approaching the 50
level, closing today at 49.18.  The last 3 times we have hit 50 in the
VIX, market rallies have followed.  While these rallies followed
volatility spikes, it is certainly worth noting that a VIX over 50 has
been the precursor to temporary bottoms. Of course, it has usually
stretched a bit over the 50 level before that rally has taken place.
See the charts below for a comparison of the VIX and the Dow.

Charts of the Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) and the Dow





All signs are certainly bearish and I would be extremely careful with
long positions.  Now that we have broken the July lows and support
levels, it seems that we will most likely re-test 7000 in the Dow. The
previous downside-measuring objective discussed in this column based on
the head and shoulders break was right around 7100, and I would look
for a slowdown at that level.  That would probably put the VIX in the
high 50s again as well, the point at which the market previously
bounced.  With President Bush's speech about Iraq tonight, we should
get a good look at just how the markets will react to his plan.  If the
war rhetoric heats up, we will most likely head down in the morning.
I'm pretty sure he will make some positive remarks about the economy
and defend the impact a war would have on us.  However, if form holds,
tough talk from the President should send us down tomorrow.

Steven Price



==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Black & Decker - BDK - close: 38.86 change: -2.64

WHAT TO WATCH: After spending the past week tooling around under
the $44.00 region, shares of BDK sold off sharply from the 50-day
moving average ($44.14), which coincides with bearish p-n-f
resistance.  The stock broke below the $40.00 support level on
Monday, backed by the strongest volume since July.  The bearish
MACD and daily stochastics are pointing towards a further
decline.  Although the July lows near $35.50 may offer some
support, continued broader market weakness could help to push BDK
down to the $34.00 region.  Short-term traders can evaluate
entries if shares fall under $38.61.




---

Capital One Financial - COF - close: 28.06 change: -2.32

WHAT TO WATCH: Take a gander at the daily chart for COF, and
you'll see that shares have traced a head-and-shoulders pattern.
Bulls may have been looking for a bounce from whole-number
support at $30.00, but those hopes were dashed on Monday when the
stock was hit with a downgrade from Goldman Sachs.  The firm
reduced Capital One's rating from "market outperform" to "market
perform," based on credit quality concerns and the overall
economic slowdown.  At this point it appears COF may soon retest
its 52-week lows near $24.00.  The technical picture is worsening
and there are no clear levels of underlying support.  Short
entries could be targeted on a violation of today's low ($27.82)
or a failed rally from the $30.00 area.




---

Home Depot - HD - close: 24.21 change: -1.59

WHAT TO WATCH: A "Now Hiring" banner is hanging on the Sears
store next to the Premier Investor offices.  That's somewhat
interesting, in light of the company's earnings warning on
Monday.  Sears said that the slowing economy and weakness in its
credit card business would result in lower-than-expected earnings
for the third quarter.  This news had investors fleeing the
retail sector in droves.  Dow component HD was hit especially
hard, as shares gave back more than 6%.  The stock is now trading
at levels not seen since 1998.  Glancing at the weekly chart, we
don't see any support until the $21.00 area.  The stock is
looking oversold, but today's close below near-term support at
$24.50 could bring more bears off the fence.  Short-term traders
can think about getting short if HD breaks under $24.00.  On a
related note, BBY and LOW might also present good shorting
opportunities in the retail sector.




---

IDEC Pharmaceuticals - IDPH - close: 37.56 change: +1.16

WHAT TO WATCH: Aggressive traders seeking a long play may want to
take a look at IDPH.  On Friday the stock broke below near-term
support and tagged a new multi-month low.  Pretty bearish, eh?
However, the stock came to a dead stop at the bottom of its two-
month descending channel.  Shares bounced nicely from this level
on Monday, outperforming the NASDAQ and posting a 3.1% gain.
Interestingly, the p-n-f chart shows that IDPH briefly pierced
its current bullish support trend for the first time.  Point-and-
figure traders may recall the familiar adage: "The first test of
bullish support is usually the most painful for the bears."
Short-covering could really take hold if the daily stochastics
start to rebound from their current oversold levels.  Watch for a
move above today's high ($38.40) to clear the way for a rally to
the top of the channel near $42.00.




---

Nike Inc. - NKE - close: 39.96 change: -1.98

WHAT TO WATCH: NKE has been trading with a bearish bias over the
past week.  In addition to general negativity in the retail
sector, shares are also being pressured by the dock workers
lockout on the West Coast.  Analysts believe NKE is particularly
vulnerable to strike-related problems because the majority of its
manufacturing is done overseas.  Technically, it looks like a
breakdown could be in progress.  NKE closed just below critical
support at $40.00.  This could result in a test of the next level
of historical support at $35.00.  The rising volume, triple-top
p-n-f sell signal, and bearish MACD crossover are pointing
towards a continued decline.  As a matter of fact, we considered
adding NKE as a short play tonight until the White House
announced it would take the first steps towards enacting the
Taft-Hartley act.  This may lead to a relief rally on Tuesday.
We'll re-evaluate NKE as a short after the market digests these
new developments.  If shares do continue lower, a move below
$39.88 would provide a possible action point to go short.




---

Pitney Bowes - PBI - close: 29.51 change: -1.55

WHAT TO WATCH: PBI is falling like a rock!  The stock is mired in
a six-week downtrend, and the $30.00 support level has just given
way.  Shares certainly look oversold on the bar chart, but the
falling daily stochastics (5,3,3) indicate that PBI has more room
to fall.  Short entries can be targeted on move below $29.46 or a
failed rally at $30.00.  The weekly chart shows that shares could
eventually drop to the $25-$27 region.  Remember to keep tight
stops to avoid getting trapped in a short-covering rally!




---

QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 29.49 change: +0.23

WHAT TO WATCH: Here's one to keep in mind for when the tech
sector finally rebounds.  Over the past two weeks QCOM has shown
incredible relative strength versus the NASDAQ.  The $30.00 mark
has thus far prevented any sort of sustained rally.  A move above
this level would be a signal to go long.  QCOM has staggered
resistance at 50 cent intervals in the $30-$32 region, but given
enough time, shares could eventually reach the $33 level.  A
trade at $32 would create a spread-triple breakout on the point-
and-figure chart.




---

Semiconductor HOLDRs - SMH - close: 18.25 change: -0.46

WHAT TO WATCH: Another day, another brokerage downgrade of the
chip sector.  Today it was Prudential who provided more fodder
for the bears, as the firm cut its ratings on several
semiconductor stocks.  The SOX.X has fallen to yet another multi-
year and is now trading at a previously unthinkable 220.
Oversold as it may be, nimble bears may be able to squeeze more
profits out of the sector.  Traders seem almost intent on taking
the SOX.X down to crucial support at 200.  With the SMH also
breaking to fresh lows, those with an aggressive strategy could
target entries at current levels.  We'd be looking for a near-
term decline to the $16.00-$16.50 region.  Other possible shorts
in the chip group include MXIM and XLNX.




---

Vulcan Materials - VMC - close: 33.27 change: -0.75

WHAT TO WATCH: The past three weeks have not been kind to
shareholders of this construction materials company.  VMC has
fallen steadily with the Dow Jones and shares seem to be picking
up downward momentum.  Toady's breakdown below the $34.00 support
level has opened the door for a move to the $31.00 region, near
the 1998 lows.  Short entries with a good risk/reward ratio could
be gauged at current levels, with a stop just above today's high
at $34.33.  P-n-f chartists will note that VMC is currently on a
triple-bottom sell signal.





=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH non-tech play)
=========================

Kimberly Clark - KMB - close: 55.32 change: -0.56 stop: 58.63

Company Description:
Kimberly-Clark Corporation is a leading global consumer products
company. Its tissue, personal care and health care products are
manufactured in 42 countries and sold in more than 150. Kimberly-
Clark is home to some of the world's most trusted and recognized
brands, including Kleenex, Scott, Huggies, Pull-Ups, Kotex and
Depend. (source: company press release)


- ORIGINAL WRITE UP: September 19th, 2002 -

Why We Like It:
The FPP.X forest/paper products index was ripped to shreds after
it gave a triple-bottom sell signal earlier this month. The
latest broader market decline has really taken its toll on the
group. Last week's rollover from 300 led to a heavy sell-off
that's taken the FPP below its 2001 lows. Sector leader IP has
led the decline, along with similar breakdowns in BCC in WY. KMB
isn't yet trading at 52-week lows, but it may only be a matter of
time before shareholders suffer that fate.

After rebounding from its July lows, the stock spent more than
six weeks trading in a narrow range between $58.00-$61.50.
Slapping a retracement bracket from the May high ($66.79) to July
low ($52.45) shows that this range was dictated by the 61% and
38% fibonacci levels. Perhaps market makers were using this as a
way to manage risk. The recent breakdown below support at $58.00
(and the 50-dma at $58.61) suggests that institutional traders
now have a sell-side bias. With no immediate underlying support
levels, KMB could be on a crash course with its July low at
$52.45. As far as this play is concerned, we'll target a move to
our exit target at $52.51. Although the daily stochastics have
already reached oversold levels, the recent breakdown, rolling
MACD, and overall sector weakness are indications that the stock
has more downside potential. Longer-term traders can also be
encouraged by the falling weekly stochastics. In order to ensure
that shares have broken to new relative lows, we won't activate
this play until KMB trades at or below $56.85. Our stop-loss will
be set at $58.63, just above the 50-dma. More conservative
traders could use a stop just above yesterday's high of $58.24.

- Most recent update: October 4th, 2002 -

Finally we get a move out of KMB. The stock traded to a new
relative low on Friday before bouncing back a bit from its lows.
We're willing to keep the stock on the play list for now but
would encourage caution on any new positions. Here's why: the
$FPP.X forest and paper products index fell hard again on Friday
and appears to be near the bottom of its descending channel. A
few stocks in the group are at recent lows and look like they
could bounce as well. Should a bounce occur then bears looking
for shorts might get a better entry point on KMB (or at least
we'll get an up tick to enter those new positions). Of course the
Industrials and the SPX like they could bounce as well and we'd
rather not initiate new short positions in front of a potential
short-term rally. Continue to monitor KMB and if the sector and
stock show weakness despite any broader market strength then
adjust your strategy accordingly.

- Play-of-the-Day Comments: October 7th, 2002 -

In Friday's update for this play we talked about the possibility
of the FPP.X forest/paper products index bouncing from the bottom
of its descending channel.  Well, that channel was completely
abandoned on Monday.  The FPP plummeted by 4.5% and closed under
its 2000 low of 234.  A test of the all-time lows near 216 could
be imminent.  With all this sector negativity, it's nice to see
that KMB is finally starting to decline.  Shares hit a multi-
month closing low today and moved toward our profit-target at
$52.51.  The descending oscillators and bearish bar chart
indicate that this level will eventually be reached.  Short-term
traders can target new entries if KMB continues to drop from
current levels.  A failed rally near $56.00 might also offer a
bearish entry point.

Picked on September 20th at 56.85
Results since picked:       +1.53
Earnings Date            10/22/02 (unconfirmed)







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DISCLAIMER
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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
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Copyright ) 2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Monday 10-07-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Stop Adjustments:      ACS (bearish)
  Closed Bearish Plays:  MERQ

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Stop Adjustments:      MWRK, FLIR, LNC, GM (bearish)
  Closed Bearish Plays:  EXPE

High Risk/Reward
  Stop Adjustments:      BGEN (bearish)

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

Stop Adjustments
----------------

Affiliated Comp. - ACS - cls: 36.03 chg: -2.12 stop: 36.51 *new*

The PR department over at ACS was touting some positive comments
from Forbes Magazine on Monday.  For the second year in a row,
Forbes said Affiliated Computer Services was "one of the most
promising business process outsourcing companies."  That's a
pretty nice accolade, but it didn't do much to help the stock.
Shares of ACS sank by 5.5% and reached another relative low.
Premier Investor is currently up 12.2% on this play, and
conservative traders may want to consider taking gains off the
table if shares bounce from current levels.  With the stock
quickly approaching our exit price of $35.50, we're going to
lower our stop to $36.51.  This should protect a gain of 11.0%.





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Mercury Interactive - MERQ - cls: 15.73 chg: -1.07 stop: 18.31

This short play got a shot in the arm today when UBS Warburg
released some negative comments on Mercury Interactive.  Citing a
tepid global recovery in the IT sector (gee...that sounds
familiar), the firm reduced MERQ's 12-month price target from $32
to $26.  The $26.00 range probably sounds pretty good to
investors right now, with the stock trading near $16.00.
Monday's action saw shares fall by 6.3% and hit our profit-target
at $15.51.  Our play was closed for a gain of 13.7%.  Traders who
are still short should be watching for a breakdown below
psychological support at $15.00.  In addition to new 52-week
lows, such a move would also trigger a double-bottom sell signal
on the p-n-f chart.  The bearish crossover on the daily
stochastic oscillator (5,3,3) bodes well for a continued decline.

Picked on September 30th at $17.98
Gain since picked:           +2.47
Earnings Date             10/17/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

Stop Adjustments
----------------

FLIR Systems - FLIR - cls: 28.22 chg: -4.51 stop: 29.01 *new*

Shares of FLIR were hammered for a 13.7% loss on Monday.  Shares
were weak from the opening bell, but the bears really piled on
after the $31.00 level gave way in afternoon trading.  Our search
for news to explain the decline came up empty-handed.  Perhaps
Wall Street knows something we don't?  In any case, this action
is very encouraging.  Although we're lowering our stop to $29.01,
those willing to give FLIR a little more wiggle room could use a
stop just above the $30.00 mark.  At this time we're also going
to set an official profit-target at $25.51.  This play will be
closed if shares trade at or below that level.




---

General Motors - GM - close: 35.88 change: -0.54 stop: 40.01 *new

GM followed the Dow lower today and posted a 1.4% loss.  Although
we've inched our stop-loss down to $40.01, more conservative
traders could use a stop just above today's high at $37.24.
Those with a short-term approach may want consider taking gains
off the table if GM bounces from the $35 level.




---

Lincoln National - LNC - cls: 25.91 chg: -1.39 stop: 27.68 *new*

Continued weakness in the insurance group helped to sink LNC on
Monday.  Shares dropped by more than 5% and reached another 52-
week low.  The stock closed at its worst levels of the session,
which bodes well for further weakness on Tuesday.  LNC is quickly
approaching our profit-target at $25.06.  We've lowered our stop
to $27.68, just above today's high.  Those looking to lock in a
larger gain can consider taking profits if shares bounce from
current levels.



---

Mothers Work - MWRK - close: 29.50 change: -2.91 stop: 30.06 *new

Today's earnings warning from Sears sent the entire retail group
spiraling lower.  MWRK has hit particularly hard, as shares
finished with a loss of nearly 9%.  Support at $30.00 was
violated on the third-strongest volume of the year.  That's a
very positive development for this short play, so we feel pretty
good about the prospects of MWRK reaching our profit-target at
$26.60.  Our tight stop at $30.06 should protect a gain of
roughly 10%.





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Expedia Inc. - EXPE - close: 40.87 change: -2.88 stop: 48.06

Online travel stocks continued to trade in a bearish fashion on
Monday.  EXPE, TSG, and ROOM all underperformed the broader
market and fell to relative lows.  The bears really asserted
themselves in EXPE, with shares breaking below previous support
in the $41-$41-75 region.  This has set the stage for a test of
support at $40.00.  However, given the stock's oversold nature
(almost a 20% loss in just four days!), it would not be
surprising to see shares bounce from current levels.  Rather than
lower our stop and wait to see if support will hold, we're simply
going to close the play at today's closing price ($40.87).  That
represents a profit of 11.2% for this paper trade.  Our longer-
term outlook is still bearish for EXPE, and we'll strongly
consider another short play if shares bounce back to the $44-$45
area.

Picked on October 2nd at $46.06
Results since picked:     +5.19
Earnings Date          10/23/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

Stop Adjustments
----------------

Biogen Inc. - BGEN - close: 29.19 change: +0.23 stop: 30.06 *new*

Our patience is being tested by BGEN.  The stock isn't exactly
exploding to the upside, but the recent sideways action has
frustrated our bearish aspirations.  Shares have shown good
relative strength versus the NASDAQ, indicating that a powerful
bounce could materialize if the biotech sector catches a bid.  If
this is the case, our stop at $30.06 should minimize upside risk.





=================
  Trading Ideas
=================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TCLP    TC Pipelines               27.45     +0.55

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name              Close     Change

       

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

LPNT    Lifepoint Hospitals        34.05     +1.01
ZOLL    Zoll Medical Corp.         33.45     +1.60
RKY     Adolph Coors               58.88     +1.54
IFF     International Flavors      33.66     +1.25
GLH     Gallaher Group             41.85     +3.41
ETR     Entergy Corp.              43.09     +3.24

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

EME     Emcor Group                48.50     -1.14
DP      Diagnostic Products        44.60     -1.37
FDX     FedEx Corp.                49.05     -2.01
MTB     M&T Bank Corp.             69.39     -2.97
FITB    Fifth Third Bancorp        55.86     -1.61
ROOM    Hotel Reservations Net.    43.76     -3.05

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

HCP     Health Care Prop.          41.43     -0.87
FNFG    First Niagara Fncl.        30.94     -0.38
MYL     Mylan Laboratories         32.00     -0.79
AFL     Aflac Inc.                 29.66     -1.45
BREL    Bioreliance Corp.          20.21     -2.55
CXP     Centex Construction Prod.  34.96     -1.64
BFS     Saul Centers Inc.          22.52     -0.48




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