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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 11/01/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-01-2002
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Betting On The Fed
Play-of-the-Day:  Doesn't Play Well With Others
Watch List:       CEPH, CMA, ERTS, HD, MXIM, TSCO, and tons more...
Market Sentiment: Who Needs Logic?

******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
       WE 11-01        WE 10-25        WE 10-18        WE 10-11   
DOW     8517.64 + 73.65 8443.99 +121.59 8322.40 +472.11 +321.89   
Nasdaq  1360.70 + 29.57 1331.13 + 43.27 1287.86 + 77.39 +774.16   
S&P-100  458.16 +  2.51  455.65 +  6.63  449.02 + 26.34 + 19.46   
S&P-500  900.96 +  3.31  897.65 + 13.26  884.39 + 49.07 + 35.04   
W5000   8502.20 + 51.56 8450.64 +126.86 8323.78 +450.75 +274.41   
RUT      383.45 + 10.81  372.64 +  9.27  363.37 + 18.44 -  3.05   
TRAN    2315.68 +  2.37 2313.31 + 34.22 2279.09 +124.42 + 16.99   
VIX       33.98 -  2.29   36.27 -  3.55   39.82 -  3.62 -  2.84   
VXN       49.86 -  0.53   50.39 -  4.94   55.33 -  3.54 -  1.41   
TRIN       0.95            0.89            0.80            0.41   
Put/Call   0.71            0.77            0.68            0.93   
******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Betting On The Fed
by Jim Brown

After dropping to 8309 on terrible economic news the Dow
rebounded on numerous buy programs to close just below key 
resistance at 8550. They say bull markets are created by 
bulls trampling over bears. There was some serious road kill 
on Friday with bewildered bears running about in utter 
confusion. 

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart



The morning reports and end of year unwinding by some funds
knocked the markets back to support at the open. Leading those 
reports was a benign Jobs report which showed another loss of
jobs in October as expected but was revised up from a -43,000
loss in September to only a -13,000 loss. When most were 
expecting whisper numbers in the -30,000 range for this month
this report, while still negative, was not the end of the world.
Manufacturing losses increased to -49,000 from -39,000 for Sept.
There were several areas including short term employment where
October showed declines that predict worse numbers in the 
November report. Business services lost -44,000 jobs in October.
This entire report shows an economy that is on hold and suggests
that it is clinging to the edge of the cliff but may not fall 
over. The unemployment rate did increase to 5.7% from 5.6%.

Construction Spending rose an unexpected +0.6% in September
but the prior month was revised down to -0.8% from -0.4%. These
are hindsight numbers and therefore are not as compelling but
the unexpected gain in September was appreciated. Most analysts
claim the economy came to a halt in late September so the 
October numbers may tell a different tale. 

Personal Income rose less than expected at +0.4% but Personal
Spending fell by -0.4%. We made less money and spent even less. 
The consumer is definitely pulling back and conserving but that
could be simply a lull before the holiday spending begins. Add
the falling consumer confidence and you get worry by retailers
that they will have to come up with new and expensive promotions
to get shoppers into the stores for that holiday season. 

Automobile sellers have their backs against the wall after
seeing record sales in prior months. The numbers released today
showed that all the major manufacturers saw huge decreases in 
sales. GM -32%, Ford -35%, Chrysler -31%, Toyota -20%. The total
vehicles sold fell to 15.4 million. This is down from huge numbers
over 18 million in July and August. According to reports the 
sales have dropped significantly but they have also flattened. 
GM said they thought they would hold their October levels for
November and added a new $2000 cash back component to the Zero,
Zero, Zero program as an added incentive. While autos have held
up the economy for two quarters they are not going to be a
player going forward. Nearly everyone who can afford a new car
has already bought one. 

The biggest number on Friday was the ISM Manufacturing Index
which fell to 48.5 and below consensus of 49.5. Any number
below 50 is considered a contracting economy. This is the 
single component that could tip the scales in favor of a rate
cut next week. This was the second month of contraction and
indicated that inventories were continuing to shrink. Nobody
is confident enough of the 4Q to invest money to create goods
or inventory them if there are no sales ahead. The new orders
component rose slightly but not enough to signify a new trend.
The ISM has now posted four months of no growth and an 
increasing rate of decline. 

A positive sign in some respects was a slight increase in
semiconductor billings. They increased +3% in September and
were powered by sales of application chips and wireless phones. 
While this growth is good it is not coming in the PC sector. 
The reduced capital spending in the sector is still warning
of further concerns by the chip makers themselves. The breadth
of chips is growing but not the depth. There are chips in
almost everything now sold which builds volume but the quantity
needed to see high profits is lacking. Everything points to a
reduced demand of chips for computers and that means a real
recovery is yet to be seen. 

The economy may not be dropping at the same rate as it was
over the last few weeks but the momentum is still slowing. 
Productivity continues to increase at a meager 4% but that is 
enough for an eventual recovery. It is just not low enough to 
build a case for huge rate cuts. The GDP is growing at a +3.0% 
rate and while not exciting it is growing. The 4Q GDP is 
expected to be in the +2.0% range or less but the year will 
still be respectable. Since the rally on Friday was a clear 
bet on a rate cut next week we should analyze that chance 
one more time. 

Over the last two years we have had massive stimulus and are
now enjoying an interest rate at decade lows. The economy is
growing at a +3.0% annual rate as a result of this stimulus. 
Any new stimulus would not have a material impact to the current
economy. It would be June of next year before any of it 
filtered down to the business level and the impact would be 
minimal. Cutting rates adds liquidity into the banking system. 
With money flowing freely the idea is to loan it out to 
businesses for capital equipment, construction, home 
improvements, home loans, etc. Cheaper rates are supposed to 
influence businesses to buy/spend on projects they would not
have done at higher rates. It is hoped they will buy more, 
produce more inventory, create more value and inject activity
into the economy. The problem today is not lack of money. 
There is plenty of money. The system is awash with it. The 
only people who want to borrow it are the ones without credit.
Nobody wants to build buildings today so they can sit vacant
for a couple years until the economy catches fire. Nobody 
wants to build inventory to fill warehouses and then have
to write it down for a loss when customers don't buy it. 
Ask Cisco, Intel or Lucent if another 25 point cut would 
make their excess inventory age slower. 

The only reason for a rate cut next week is because the market
needs reassurance from Uncle Alan that they are still on the
job and they care about our well being. It has been eleven
months since they cut rates and even though they have done
the trick the market is begging for more. How many times have
we seen the market stuck in some trend that just seems to go
on forever and suddenly something comes out of left field to
break the trance? Analysts think another rate cut is that
event. The market "should" continue to grow. There are 
signs that it has stopped falling in most cases but it
just has not started growing. The conventional wisdom is that 
a rate cut next week will be an "insurance" cut that will 
guarantee no further slippage in the economy. We all know 
there are no guarantees. The economy will improve when it
improves. The economy has the flu and just like there is no
cure for the flu in people there is no instant cure for the 
economic flu. Everything has been done that can be done and 
now we just have to wait for it to pass. 

The bullish contingent are convinced there is at least a 25
point cut in the wings and maybe even a 50 point cut. If
25 is good then 50 could be better according to the analysts.
A 25-point cut is already priced in and therefore will have 
no real impact to the markets. (their words not mine) If the
Fed really wants to make a statement they "have" to cut 50
points. They view the current conditions as similar to Japan
which spiraled down over years to its current conditions. They
feel a continued diet of 25 point cuts as conditions worsen 
will only set the Fed up to be in the same shape as the Bank
of Japan with zero interest and no cuts left. 

The bearish view is that there will be no cut. There has been
zero Fedspeak that would imply there is a possibility. The
only line is the party line of "more than adequate stimulus
has already been injected". The Fed needs to retain all the
ammo it has left to counter any future terrorist attacks and
the possibility of a long war with Iraq. Why give the patient
another antibiotic shot when he is already showing signs of
improvement? The more antibiotics someone receives the more
immune they become to future treatments. Another factor is
the European Central Bank. They have been reluctant to cut
rates and I am sure the Fed would rather not cut again until 
they do. If the Fed holds the line this week then the ECB may
feel pressured to pick up the pace. 

The wild card in the rate cut scenario is the election. I think
the Fed has not come out to talk down the possibility of a rate
cut to keep from negatively influencing the election for the
administration. If you think about it the election outcome can
influence the Fed's decision. A Republican victory that gives 
them control would probably lessen the possibility of a rate
cut substantially. More items would get approved in Congress
in a smaller amount of time. This would be implied stimulus. 
If the Democrats maintain control then gridlock might prevail
and a rate cut might be needed to get the markets mind off the
political outcome. The markets normally like gridlock because
it means restrictive new laws take forever to pass and can 
get mired down for years. Currently they would love for gridlock
to disappear so that new stimulus programs could be passed and
spending increased. 

Despite analysts comments to the contrary there is no sure 
answer to the rate cut question for Wednesday just like there
is no answer to the election with so many races up for grabs. 
As investors the side we take depends on our bias. The bulls
are buying stocks with the clear assumption that the Fed will
cut rates and the markets will soar off into the clouds. Bears
are closing shorts just in case the bulls are right. Nobody
wants to be short if the Fed pulls a rabbit out of their hat. 
The difference in opinion sent the market back to resistance
one more time and they appear poised to rally again on Monday.

As investors we need to be careful in putting too much faith
in the rate cut scenario of our choice. A 25-point cut will 
probably result in an eventual sell off since this size of
cut is already priced into the market. A 50-point cut could
give the market an initial pop but there is still the possibility
of a sell the news event after the remaining shorts cover. No
cut at all would generate an immediate drop until the cut
expectations were removed. The bottom line is that we have 
already had a strong run over the last four weeks and it will
take a lot more to move it higher. There should be profit taking
after the Fed meeting regardless of the outcome. With the Nasdaq
up +13% in October and the Dow up +10.6% there is always the 
risk that new investors will want to wait before joining the
crowd. Even if the Fed did cut rates 50 points Cisco announces
earnings two hours later. How much is the market going to run
with the CSCO axe hanging over their head? 

What I think is more important this weekend is fundamental 
events occurring in stocks. Friday after the close the Microsoft
antitrust case was decided in the favor of the current penalty
settlement. This is very bullish and the stock was up strongly
in after hours. This will buoy all the markets simply because
MSFT is a major component in the indexes. (Ironically the Microsoft 
news could actually be detrimental to the rate cut possibilities. 
If the Fed sees the markets in strong rally mode sparked by 
Microsoft then they may not feel the urge to cut rates quite 
as strongly.)

Additionally the dockworkers reached an agreement on the west 
coast and the slowdown should end Monday. Supply lines will 
fill up promptly and the holiday season may not be hampered. 
The semiconductor sales numbers I mentioned above will continue 
to attract investors to the chip sector. There were also some 
rumors on Friday that there were about to be some large orders 
released in the networking sector. JNPR soared +18% on the 
expectation that the dry spell could be over. Cisco could be 
a bigger key than the Fed next week. With the Microsoft led 
rally on Monday, a favorable outcome in the elections and any 
cut from the Fed on Wednesday a positive Cisco earnings event 
could blow the lid off the market. The reverse is of course 
true if the rate cut is 25 points or less and Cisco warns then 
the bears will roar out of hiding. 

October is over and November started out with a bang. Monday 
morning is going to look like a stampede as the bulls trip over
themselves trying to dive into the new bull market. Explosive
rallies breed more explosive rallies as shorts race to cover 
and the flashing green numbers attract more investors like moths
to a flame. For whatever reason the Dow has put together four
positive weeks in a row. It will have a head start next week
with a Microsoft Monday but the finish could be a struggle. 
Don't count the bears out just yet there could still be some
serious potholes in our future.

I apologize for the long winded commentary this weekend but the
many emails I received on Friday were begging for an explanation
of factors affecting the coming week. There is no simple answer
and I hope this helped rather than confused you. 

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown

"If all the economists in the world were laid end to end, they
still would not reach a conclusion"  - George Bernard Shaw

Revised version: "If all the economists in the world agreed a 
50-point rate cut was needed the Fed would still ignore them"


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH)
=========================
(( new Active Trader/non-tech short))

Baxter Intl. Inc. - BAX - cls: 24.22 chg: -0.80 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Baxter International Inc. is a global health care company that, 
through its subsidiaries, provides critical therapies for people 
with life-threatening conditions. Baxter's bioscience, medication 
delivery and renal products and services are used to treat 
individuals with such medical conditions as cancer, hemophilia, 
immune deficiencies, infectious diseases, kidney disease and 
trauma. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
For good or bad it seems investors don't trust the headline 
numbers these days.  The devil, it seems, is in the details.  
Shares of BAX were already in a protracted state of decline but 
the recent third quarter earnings news and brokerage comments 
have done nothing but potentially accelerate the fall.

The company announced earnings on Oct. 17th last month and the 
headline number was a net increase in sales.  An 11% jump in net 
sales to $2.1 billion from $1.9B the year before sounds like good 
news.  Add to the fact that the numbers were boosted by a 19% 
increase in international sales, during what is a global 
recession, and investors might think BAX is ready to turn it 
around.  This is not the case.  The Financial Times later 
reported that Baxter's unit sales may have decreased for the 
second quarter in a row.  Furthermore, the company was seeing 
weaker than expected results from its sales of genetically 
derived recombinate Factor VIII treatment for Hemophilia.  The 
company did not expect a turnaround in this industry until the 
first quarter of next year.  This is a key area for BAX as it 
pursues higher-profit margin business like bioscience and 
vaccines.  The hemophilia products were hampered by potential 
connections to hemophilia patient deaths.  Combine this bad news 
from their Q3 earnings with bad news from partner Cerus and 
analysts start to get worried.  Cerus (CERS) is developing a 
blood cleaning system with BAX to clean donated blood from germs 
and viruses.  CERS' latest earnings report showed a large Q3 loss 
due to higher R&D costs.  

This news and diminished outlook had both Merrill and Morgan 
Stanley cutting BAX's rating.  Merrill cut BAX from a "buy" to a 
"neutral" and MWD cut BAX to an "underweight", which might as 
well mean "sell".  The MWD analyst was concerned over BAX's long-
term earnings growth and mentioned potential "balance sheet 
issues" per the Reuters news article.  Adding to BAX's woes is 
the most recent news that Australia's anti-trust watchdog, the 
ACCC, has filed in court against BAX over some of its medical 
supply contracts.

All of this negative news has not allowed shares of BAX to 
participate in the market rally in any way.  As a matter of fact, 
BAX is precariously close to breaking down to lows not seen since 
January of 1998 and late 1997.  The stock closed at 24.22 but is 
trading at $24.09 after hours.  Premier is going to use a trigger 
at $23.99 to go short the stock.  Once triggered our stop loss 
will be $26.51 initially.  Once we see how the stock reacts we'll 
cinch the stop down tighter.  More conservative traders could 
attempt a tighter stop near $25.65, which has been recent 
resistance.  Our initial target will be the $20 area.  Keep an 
eye on the Point-and-Figure chart.  A move under $24 and we'll 
see a triple-bottom breakdown for BAX.

Annotated Chart - BAX



Picked on November 1st at $xx.xx
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date           10/17/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

CBRL Group - CBRL - close: 23.27 change: -0.16

WHAT TO WATCH: The restaurant group developed a severe case of 
indigestion this week after DRI (the owner of the Olive Garden 
and Red Lobster chains) guided lower for the second quarter.  
While CBRL (think Cracker Barrel) hasn't yet been hit with heavy 
selling, the bearish oscillators indicate that it may just be a 
matter of time.  The stock has been riding its descending 50-dma 
lower and might accelerate its downtrend if the sector continues 
to be plagued by negative news.  Bearish traders can watch for a 
break under the relative low of $23.10 to clear the way for a 
decline to the $20.00 area.




---

Cephalon - CEPH - close: 49.81 change: -0.46

WHAT TO WATCH: JP Morgan initiated coverage on CEPH with a 
lukewarm "neutral" rating on Thursday.  Cephalon seems to have 
somewhat of a positive fundamental outlook, but technically the 
stock is not looking strong.  Shares rolled over from the $50.00 
level (slightly below the 200-dma) and faded both the NASDAQ and 
BTK.X biotech index on Friday.  The afternoon rebound complicates 
entry strategies, but aggressive short positions could be gauged 
at current levels.  Those seeking more bearish confirmation 
should wait for a move below today's low ($48.34).  We'd be 
targeting a decline to the $44-$45 area.




---

Cigna Corp - CI - close: 38.40 change: +2.26

WHAT TO WATCH: Those with a *very* aggressive trading strategy 
could think about going long CI.  The stock is starting to show 
some signs of life after getting hammered last week on an 
earnings warning.  Shares moved higher today after Cigna 
announced that its Q3 earnings were slightly better than lowered 
expectations.  Plenty of risk remains (the SEC has launched a 
probe into the company's accounting practices), but a near-term 
pop to the $44.00 wouldn't be out of the question if today's 
upward momentum carries over into next week.




---

Comerica Inc - CMA - close: 44.80 change: +1.14

WHAT TO WATCH: Short-term traders may want to watch for CMA to 
break above $45.06.  The stock has been uptrending for three 
weeks and is currently in the process of filling in the large gap 
from October 2nd, which was formed when Comerica restated its 
second-quarter earnings.  Given the lack of overhead resistance, 
we think CMA could rally up to the 50-dma at $48.04.




---

Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 66.08 change: +0.96

WHAT TO WATCH: The fundamental picture for Electronic Arts is 
looking very strong.  Last week the company blew away earnings 
expectations, announcing second-quarter results of 34 
cents/shares.  Analysts had expected an EPS of only 17 cents.  
ERTS gave investors even more to cheer about with its upward 
guidance for 2003.  They now anticipate full-year earnings in the 
$2.24-$2.32 range, versus the consensus estimate of $2.06.  
Interestingly, the stock did not receive an appreciable boost 
from this news.  Shares seem to have been weighed down by an 
earnings warning from competitor THQI.  Fast-forward one week, 
and the stock looks like it may now be ready to attack its all-
time highs near $72.00.  The stock rebounded from support at the 
200-dma ($61.03) and has also cleared the 50-dma at $65.03.  The 
rising oscillators are hinting towards a continued uptrend.  With 
tonight's positive MSFT news likely to give the software group a 
shot in the arm on Monday, traders can think about going long on 
a move above $66.74.
 



--- 

Home Depot - HD - close: 28.40 change: -0.48

WHAT TO WATCH: Lately it's been pretty tough to get a bearing on 
the retail sector.  The terrible consumer confidence data 
released on Tuesday should've tanked the entire group, but the 
bulls were barely fazed.  Some of the larger stocks (such as KSS) 
even look like long candidates.  But this is not the case with 
HD.  Shares are rolling over from the 50-dma ($29.85) and showed 
relative weakness on Friday with a 1.6% loss.  The fresh p-n-f 
reversal and rolling MACD are hinting towards a possible retest 
of the $25.00 level.  Short positions can be considered on a move 
below $28.00.




---

Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 33.93 change: +2.09

WHAT TO WATCH: The semiconductor index simply will not be denied.  
After spending several days bouncing around near resistance at 
300, the SOX.X exploded with a 6.0% gain on Friday.  The current 
uptrend has differed from most of the other chip rallies over the 
past year, in that the gains have been achieved gradually.  While 
sudden short-covering rallies often lose momentum within a matter 
of weeks (or even days), steady uptrends often have more staying 
power.  The SOX.X looks like it could continue to the 350 level 
now that resistance has been cleared.  We've highlighted MXIM as 
a specific semi stock to watch because of today's breakout to new 
relative highs.  The company announced strong earnings earlier 
this week and also announced a cash dividend.  The point-and-
figure is looking as bullish as well, with MXIM (which is 
displaying a double-top buy signal) recently breaking above 
bearish resistance.  Shares appear to be headed for a test of the 
August highs near $38.50.




---

Adolph Coors - RKY - close: 69.66 change: +1.18

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of RKY have been holding firm near 52-week 
highs, following the company's strong earnings report.  Coors 
announced last week that its third-quarter net income increased 
nearly 20% on a year-over-year basis.  Earnings Per Share clocked 
in a $1.05, two cents better than consensus estimates.  The 
recent consolidation in the $68-$70 range is a promising sign for 
the bulls.  The reversing daily stochastics also portend another 
upward leg.  Long positions can be evaluated on a move above 
$70.15, initially targeting the next level of psychological 
resistance at $75.00.




--- 

Tractor Supply Co. - TSCO - close: 40.00 change: +2.01

WHAT TO WATCH: Backed by the second-strongest volume in several 
months, TSCO broke out of its recent sideways consolidation 
pattern on Friday.  Shares are trading near all-time highs and 
the rising daily stochastics are hinting at more upside.  How far 
can TSCO rise?  The bullish count on the p-n-f chart is currently 
$66.  Long-term traders could have this goal in mind, but those 
with a shorter timeframe may want to aim for a move to $45.  
Bullish entries can be gauged on a break above $40.30.




------------
RADAR SCREEN
------------ 

AGY - Argosy was featured on Wednesday's Watch List, and it still 
looks strong.  The breakout above $20.00 has paved the way for a 
test of the 50-dma at $23.00.  P-n-f chart is showing a double-
top breakout.

CDWC - Shareholders of CDWC enjoyed a rally to new multi-month 
highs on Friday.  Possible resistance looms at the May highs near 
$57.00, but a rally to $60.00 wouldn't be out of the question if 
the NASDAQ remains strong.

EXPE - Still waiting for this one to roll over.  Shares have not 
been able to break above resistance at $70.00, and the overbought 
conditions persist.

INTU - INTU is one of the few software stocks that is trading at 
multi-year highs.  Today's breakout created a double-top p-n-f 
buy signal.  The rising oscillators suggest that shares could be 
headed for the $60.00 region.

WWY - It's a slow mover, but Wrigley has just broken to multi-
month highs.  The daily chart looks like WWY could reach the $58 
level, but watch out for bearish p-n-f resistance at $55.

ZLC - Today's action saw ZLC break above resistance at $30.00 
before pulling back to close on the 50-dma ($29.89).  The stock 
is worth keeping an eye on for short-term traders, because a 
break above the relative high of $30.30 would open the door for 
a move to the $32.00 area.  A trade at $31.00 would produce a 
double-top breakout on the p-n-f chart.

BAB - Airline stocks are making a comeback and this one broke out 
today after British regulators approved a revenue-sharing deal 
with UAL.  Aggressive traders could consider entries at current 
levels, targeting a rally to the August highs near $26.00.  This 
is also the location of bearish p-n-f resistance.

KRON - Shares of this software maker broke above their 200-dma 
($36.76) on Friday and tagged a new multi-month high.  The stock 
has already seen some large gains, but short-term traders could 
look for a rally to the $40.00 level. 

INTU - INTU has broken to 52-week highs and is displaying a 
double-top buy signal.  There's possible resistance at $56.00 
(late-2000 highs), but continued strength in the software group 
could help to push shares up to $60.00.


================
Market Sentiment
================

Who Needs Logic?

by Steven Price

Bad news, pretty much all around, continued to lift the markets.  
Sound like an oxymoron?  Not when investors are hoping for a rate 
cut. With the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the bulls got more of 
what they wanted today. Personal Income rose less than expected, 
at 0.4%, while personal spending declined more than expected, at 
-0.4%.  Nonfarm payrolls saw an unexpected decline, and the 
hourly workweek and hourly earnings also came in under consensus. 
The ISM manufacturing index continued to show contraction and 
came in worse than expected, as well.  The one positive was the 
unemployment rate, which was 0.1% better than the consensus.   
The news was bad enough to more than justify a rate cut, IF that 
is what the FOMC is planning.  While it is not a sure thing, the 
Fed Funds futures are predicting a cut of at least 25 basis 
points by the end of the year. The close of 98.605 (100-98.605 = 
1.395; this is more than .25 less than the current rate of 1.75) 
actually indicates a cut of more than 25 points.

We got a healthy rally of 120.61 Dow points, 30.95 Nasdaq points 
and 15.20 SPX points.  While the Dow remains rangebound between 
8200 and 8550, the SPX achieved its first close over 900 since 
9/11.  The Nasdaq also broke above recent resistance at 1350, 
managing to close at 1360.70.  The news of Microsoft's settlement 
after hours brought with it a tech rally and if the bulls aren't 
scared off after digesting the economic data over the weekend, we 
could see more buying on Monday. Microsoft traded up more than $3 
after the bell.  As both a Nasdaq and Dow stock, it could lift 
the Dow through 8550 resistance.  If there is any tech stock that 
can lead a sustained rally, it would be Mr. Softie.

While the market action looks bullish, today's rally did fade 
into the end of the day.  It also seems irrationally exuberant 
(to borrow from Sir Alan), given the economic data.  I'd like to 
think the rally is a result of the numbers being not as bad as we 
thought they would be, but the fact that they were below 
consensus estimates tells me otherwise.  Another rate cut may 
help business investment, but I am skeptical after the last 11 
cuts did little good.  Of course, I may be wrong about the last 
statement, as Fed watchers may say we'd be much lower without 
them.  In any case, a rally may continue through Wednesday, but 
without a cut of more than 25 basis points, it seems that the 
economic data should overwhelm any sense of euphoria. 

For now, I'll go along for the ride, but a Dow over 8550 would 
make me more comfortable with a full deck of long plays.  I have 
been targeting SPX 900 for several weeks now, as confirmation of 
a rally.  While my inner bear still tells me things don't look so 
hot, I got what I asked for, so I'll trade what I see.   

The retail sector got a reprieve from the sell-off of the last 
couple of days.  That seems odd, given the decrease in personal 
spending, poor Consumer Confidence and reduction in payrolls.  
The bounce was minor, so I am expecting renewed selling in the 
sector, whether it comes on Monday, or Wednesday afternoon.

The semiconductors set another relative high, with the 
Semiconductor Index (SOX) cruising back up through 300, and past 
resistance at 310 as well.  While I'm still trying to figure out 
who is betting on the sector, I'll go along for the ride until it 
ends.  Which logic tells me should be soon.  Of course logic 
dictated the average remain in the low 200s, as well.  

This is not the first time the market has rallied on bad news 
ahead of a rate cut that was not entirely set in stone. In fact, 
this type of action has been common in the past.  The tricky part 
is figuring out what will happen after the news is out. It is a 
trader's axiom to fade the first move after the announcement.  
That works much of the time, but the second move is usually less 
predictable.  After this week's numbers, I will be looking to 
short a rally, and then close on the pullback. Beyond that I'll 
stick to what I see, and hope logic doesn't get in the way.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7286
Current     :  8517

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8432
 50-dma: 8189
200-dma: 9293

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  775
Current     :  900

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  891
 50-dma:  869
200-dma: 1002

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1019

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  982
 50-dma:  914
200-dma: 1163

The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X): The SOX continues to seek out 
new highs.  It got back above resistance at 300 and broke through 
the next level at 310.  Until we see a turnaround of the current 
trend we'll stay away from expensive shorts in the sector.  The 
Editor's Plays from last Sunday recommended buying puts on the 
way up, and certainly the earnings results have been bad enough 
from the sector to justify the saying "buy them when you can, not 
when you have to."   The 46% gain since October 9 seems 
unsustainable and unjustifiable.  However, it is continuing. When 
the music stops it could be a long way down, so be very careful 
when playing long in this group. 

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 214
Current     : 282

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 288
 50-dma: 270
200-dma: 428


Market Volatility

The VIX slid today on the market rally.  While there is still 
plenty of downside room if we get a sustained, long term rally 
(I have traded the VIX under 20 on numerous occasions in upward 
trending markets), I doubt it will get below 30 before the Fed 
interest rate announcement on Wednesday.  Heading into next week's
events, with elections and the FOMC meeting, we got a surprising 
number of weekend premium sellers. If anything, I might be buying 
premium at these levels, in anticipation of some big swings next 
week. 


CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 33.98 -1.93
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 49.86 -3.13

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.71        596,692       426,509
Equity Only    0.56        468,903       264,578
OEX            0.93         26,791        24,923
QQQ            0.51         72,632        37,085


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          38      + 1     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    59      + 4     Bull Alert
Dow Indust.   57      + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       50      + 1     Bull Alert
S&P 100       54      - 4     Bull Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

5-Day Arms Index   1.21
10-Day Arms Index  1.03
21-Day Arms Index  0.99
55-Day Arms Index  1.27


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1991           741
NASDAQ     2129          1018

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         30              39
NASDAQ       48              58

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,766
NASDAQ   1,832

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 10/29/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials loaded up slightly on both sides of their position, 
adding 5,000 long and short contracts.  Small traders treated 
their positions similarly, adding 3,000 contracts to both sides.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
10/08/02      427,070   445,135   (18,065)   (2.1%)
10/15/02      429,448   449,138   (19,690)   (2.2%)
10/22/02      432,775   463,827   (31,052)   (3.5%)
10/29/02      437,565   468,557   (30,992)   (3.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/08/02      131,486    81,010    50,476     23.7%
10/15/02      134,507    83,714    50,793     23.3%
10/22/02      134,641    72,681    61,960     29.8%
10/29/02      137,740    75,587    62,153     29.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Commercials left positions virtually the same, with a slight 
reduction to the long side and a slight increase to the short 
side.  Small traders added less than 1,000 contracts to both 
sides.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
10/08/02       45,384     55,504   (10,120) (10.0%)
10/15/02       45,578     51,969    (6,391) ( 6.6%)
10/22/02       48,954     54,088    (5,134) ( 4.9%)
10/29/02       47,837     55,261    (7,324) ( 7.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/08/02       10,735     5,721     5,014    30.4%
10/15/02       10,185    12,478     2,293    10.1%
10/22/02       10,202     8,892     1,310     6.6%
10/29/02       10,584     9,419     1,165     5.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials kept the status quo here, as well, reducing the 
net long position by 300 contracts, of 0.4% of open interest.
Small traders increased longs by 1,200 and shorts by 2,000.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/08/02       19,550    11,823    7,727      24.6%
10/15/02       20,914     9,630   11,284      36.9%
10/22/02       22,189    13,448    8,741      24.5%
10/29/02       21,800    13,337    8,463      24.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/08/02        7,890     9,645    (1,755)   (10.0%)
10/15/02        6,040    10,329    (4,289)   (26.2%)
10/22/02        4,445     9,270    (4,825)   (35.1%)
10/29/02        5,602    11,090    (5,488)   (32.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-01-2002
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     BAX
  Bearish Play Updates:  MO, SUP
  Closed Bearish Plays:  HIG

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  T, WPI
  Bearish Play Updates:  HGSI
  
                        
==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================
 
============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  ----------------- 

Baxter Intl. Inc. - BAX - cls: 24.22 chg: -0.80 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Baxter International Inc. is a global health care company that, 
through its subsidiaries, provides critical therapies for people 
with life-threatening conditions. Baxter's bioscience, medication 
delivery and renal products and services are used to treat 
individuals with such medical conditions as cancer, hemophilia, 
immune deficiencies, infectious diseases, kidney disease and 
trauma. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
For good or bad it seems investors don't trust the headline 
numbers these days.  The devil, it seems, is in the details.  
Shares of BAX were already in a protracted state of decline but 
the recent third quarter earnings news and brokerage comments 
have done nothing but potentially accelerate the fall.

The company announced earnings on Oct. 17th last month and the 
headline number was a net increase in sales.  An 11% jump in net 
sales to $2.1 billion from $1.9B the year before sounds like good 
news.  Add to the fact that the numbers were boosted by a 19% 
increase in international sales, during what is a global 
recession, and investors might think BAX is ready to turn it 
around.  This is not the case.  The Financial Times later 
reported that Baxter's unit sales may have decreased for the 
second quarter in a row.  Furthermore, the company was seeing 
weaker than expected results from its sales of genetically 
derived recombinate Factor VIII treatment for Hemophilia.  The 
company did not expect a turnaround in this industry until the 
first quarter of next year.  This is a key area for BAX as it 
pursues higher-profit margin business like bioscience and 
vaccines.  The hemophilia products were hampered by potential 
connections to hemophilia patient deaths.  Combine this bad news 
from their Q3 earnings with bad news from partner Cerus and 
analysts start to get worried.  Cerus (CERS) is developing a 
blood cleaning system with BAX to clean donated blood from germs 
and viruses.  CERS' latest earnings report showed a large Q3 loss 
due to higher R&D costs.  

This news and diminished outlook had both Merrill and Morgan 
Stanley cutting BAX's rating.  Merrill cut BAX from a "buy" to a 
"neutral" and MWD cut BAX to an "underweight", which might as 
well mean "sell".  The MWD analyst was concerned over BAX's long-
term earnings growth and mentioned potential "balance sheet 
issues" per the Reuters news article.  Adding to BAX's woes is 
the most recent news that Australia's anti-trust watchdog, the 
ACCC, has filed in court against BAX over some of its medical 
supply contracts.

All of this negative news has not allowed shares of BAX to 
participate in the market rally in any way.  As a matter of fact, 
BAX is precariously close to breaking down to lows not seen since 
January of 1998 and late 1997.  The stock closed at 24.22 but is 
trading at $24.09 after hours.  Premier is going to use a trigger 
at $23.99 to go short the stock.  Once triggered our stop loss 
will be $26.51 initially.  Once we see how the stock reacts we'll 
cinch the stop down tighter.  More conservative traders could 
attempt a tighter stop near $25.65, which has been recent 
resistance.  Our initial target will be the $20 area.  Keep an 
eye on the Point-and-Figure chart.  A move under $24 and we'll 
see a triple-bottom breakdown for BAX.

Annotated Chart - BAX



Picked on November 1st at $xx.xx
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date           10/17/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Phillip Morris - MO - close: 42.41 change: +1.66 stop: 44.11
 
MO didn't quite test support at $40.00 on Friday, but the 
intraday low of $40.39 seemed to have been close enough for the 
bulls.  Shares bounced explosively after the first half-hour of 
trading and recouped the past three days of losses.  The 4.0% 
rally was significantly better than the 1.4% gain posted by the 
Dow Jones.  Looking at the daily chart, it's easy to see how some 
short-covering might have been in store after MO bled lower over 
the past week.  But is this rebound the beginning of a 
sustainable uptrend?  We think not.  Bulls will correctly argue 
that the daily stochastics are giving a buy signal.  However, 
shares still must overcome resistance at the descending 50-dma 
($43.10), and the point-and-figure chart remains in a column of 
"O's."  Which direction MO takes next will likely depend on how 
the Dow behaves ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting.  Aggressive 
traders can watch for a failed rally at the 50-dma to provide an 
action point to open new short positions.

Picked on October 29th at $41.49
Results since picked:      -0.92
Earnings Date           10/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Superior Industries - SUP - cls: 42.60 chg: +0.13 stop: 46.01

SUP finished in the green on Friday, but that's just about the 
only victory the bulls can claim.  The stock lagged the broader 
market with a gain of only 13 cents and traced a lower high and 
lower low (relative to yesterday's range.)  A glance at the 10-
minute chart shows what's keeping a lid on SUP: Shares have 
repeatedly faltered at the declining 200-pd moving average.  
While this may be a mere coincidence, the short-term downtrend 
bodes well for this play.  New entries can be targeted on a move 
under today's low ($41.65) or a violation of the relative low at 
$41.16.  Conservative traders can use stops just above the 200-
dma at $45.23.

Picked on October 28th at $42.97
Results since picked:      +0.37
Earnings Date           10/17/02 (confirmed)
 



  
===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  -------------------- 

Hartford Fincl. - HIG - cls: 41.10 chg: +1.60 stop: 42.26

We had some high hopes for HIG this morning when shares tagged a 
new relative low and moved toward our exit target at $37.51.  
However, the bears decided to take the rest of the day off after 
failing to push the stock below $38.00.  Shares stair-stepped 
higher as the session progressed and closed with a gain of 4.0%.  
This strong reversal indicates that HIG may make an attempt to 
fill in Wednesday morning's gap.  With this in mind, we've 
decided to close this paper trade at current levels.  We'd rather 
take a small gain (2.1%) than stick around and watch the stock 
stop us out for a small loss.  Although our initial bearish 
expectations for HIG proved to be correct, the unexpected 
downward gap simply eliminated too much of the stock's immediate 
downside potential.
 
Picked on October 30th at $42.00
Results since picked:      +0.90
Earnings Date           10/28/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

AT&T Corp. - T - close: 13.52 change: +0.48 stop: 12.30 *new*

The Dow Jones trended steadily higher on Friday as shorts covered 
positions ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.   T traded in a 
similar fashion and moved off the 200-dma ($12.93), finishing 
near the best levels of the session with a 3.6% gain.  This 
action is promising for our long play.  Looking at the daily 
chart, we see a bullish engulfing candlestick and an upward 
reversal on the stochastics (5,3,3).  The technical strength 
suggests that T could soon break above its relative high at 
$13.64.  Such a move would give bullish traders an opportunity to 
open new positions.  The next level of resistance lies at the May 
highs near $14.25.  Our stop has been bumped up to $12.30, just 
under the ascending 50-dma.

Picked on October 23rd at $13.40 
Results since picked:      +0.12
Earnings Date           10/22/02 (unconfirmed)
 



--- 

Watson Pharma. - WPI - cls: 28.34 chg: +0.85 stop: 27.14 *new* 

Nice reversal!  WPI was looking somewhat exhausted on Thursday as 
shares posted a small loss after briefly spiking to a new 
relative high.  Another high was reached on Friday, but this time 
the stock has able to maintain its intraday gains.  WPI tacked on 
3.0% after shares moved into the unfilled gap on the daily chart.  
The next hurdle will be psychological resistance near $30.00.  
We've set an official exit price slightly below this level at 
$29.74.  Our stop-loss has also been moved to $27.14, six cents 
under today's low.  Premier Investor is currently up 8.1% on this 
play, and conservative traders may want to consider taking 
profits at current levels.  In all likelihood we'll be dropping 
WPI prior to the company's Wednesday morning earnings 
announcement.  Because of the limited timeframe, we would not 
recommend taking new entries at this time.

Picked on October 28th at $26.20 
Results since picked:      +2.14
Earnings Date           11/06/02 (confirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Human Genome Sciences - HGSI - cls: 9.09 chg: -0.68 stop: 11.00

True to form the high-volume sell off in shares of HGSI continued 
into the weekend. Shares traded lower early Friday morning and 
Premier was triggered into the play when HGSI traded through 
$9.49 (now our hypothetical entry price).  Volume was very strong 
at 4.7 million shares.  The breakdown under the $10 level appears 
to have some investors throwing in the towel.  The stock 
struggled to find some support near the $8.90 level and bounced 
in this area twice but the negative tone remains.  New entries 
might be considered below the $9.00 level but should the stock 
bounce a failed rally near the $10 level would be a more 
attractive short entry.  We will keep our stop at $11 for the 
moment and evaluate the stop again after Monday's close.  Keep in 
mind that HGSI has "invited" investors to listen to their webcast 
of a presentation to be made at the CIBC World Markets conference 
on Wednesday, Nov. 6th, 2002 at 11:30 a.m. ET.  Should the 
company say anything truly beneficial and revealing (such that 
the analysts who follow these companies for a living were aware 
of the news) then HGSI could potentially see new buying support.  
Odds are this is just an attempt to garner some retail investors 
attention, which wouldn't do their stock any harm at these low 
levels.

Picked on November 1st at $ 9.49 
Results since picked:      +0.40
Earnings Date           10/29/02 (confirmed)






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Copyright  2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 11-01-2002
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright  2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of November 4th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


=========================================
Market Watch for the week of November 4th
=========================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

ABN    ABN Amro Holdings     Mon, Nov 4  Before the Bell       N/A
ACDO   Accredo Health        Mon, Nov 4  Before the Bell      0.36
AFG    American Fin Group    Mon, Nov 4  Before the Bell      0.62
ATH    Anthem, Inc.          Mon, Nov 4  Before the Bell      0.99
AIV    Apartment Inv & Man   Mon, Nov 4  After the Bell       1.09
CHK    Chesapeake Energy     Mon, Nov 4  After the Bell       0.10
CHD    Church & Dwight Co.   Mon, Nov 4  Before the Bell      0.39
DTE    DTE Energy Company    Mon, Nov 4  -----N/A-----        0.76
FHCC   First Health Group    Mon, Nov 4  Before the Bell      0.32
FSH    Fisher Sci Intl       Mon, Nov 4  After the Bell       0.49
KEG    Key Energy Services   Mon, Nov 4  Before the Bell      0.02
MLS    Mills Corporation     Mon, Nov 4  Before the Bell      0.75
OGE    OGE Energy            Mon, Nov 4  Before the Bell       N/A
PRE    PartnerRe Ltd.        Mon, Nov 4  After the Bell      -0.63
PIXR   Pixar Anime Studios   Mon, Nov 4  After the Bell       0.74
RA     Reckson Ass Rlty Corp Mon, Nov 4  After the Bell       0.60
REG    Regency Centers Corp  Mon, Nov 4  After the Bell       0.69
RYAAY  Ryanair Holdings      Mon, Nov 4  -----N/A-----        0.63
STO    Statoil ASA           Mon, Nov 4  Before the Bell      0.19
TLD    TDC A/S               Mon, Nov 4  Before the Bell       N/A
TU     TELUS                 Mon, Nov 4  Before the Bell      0.05
TRZ    Trizec Properties     Mon, Nov 4  After the Bell       0.48
VRTX   Vertex Pharm Inc      Mon, Nov 4  After the Bell      -0.30


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ALS    Alstom SA             Tue, Nov 5  Before the Bell       N/A
AMH    AmerUs Group Co.      Tue, Nov 5  After the Bell       0.90
BJS    BJ SVCS CO            Tue, Nov 5  Before the Bell      0.21
BAB    British Airways       Tue, Nov 5  Before the Bell       N/A
GIB    CGI Group             Tue, Nov 5  Before the Bell       N/A
CSC    Computer Sci Corp     Tue, Nov 5  After the Bell       0.54
CEI    Crescent Rl Est Eq Co Tue, Nov 5  Before the Bell      0.43
EMR    Emerson Electric      Tue, Nov 5  -----N/A-----        0.61
ECA    EnCana Corporation    Tue, Nov 5  -----N/A-----         N/A
EQR    Equity Residential    Tue, Nov 5  During the Market    0.60
EXPD   Expeditors Intl WA    Tue, Nov 5  Before the Bell      0.28
FOX    Fox Entertainment Grp Tue, Nov 5  After the Bell       0.09
GRP    Grant Prideco Inc     Tue, Nov 5  Before the Bell      0.02
HRC    Healthsouth           Tue, Nov 5  -----N/A-----        0.21
HSIC   Henry Schein          Tue, Nov 5  Before the Bell      0.72
ICOS   ICOS Corporation      Tue, Nov 5  After the Bell      -0.57
CLI    Mack-Cali Realty Corp Tue, Nov 5  Before the Bell      0.90
MBI    MBIA Inc.             Tue, Nov 5  Before the Bell      1.07
MET    MetLife Inc.          Tue, Nov 5  After the Bell       0.60
MRH    Montpelier Re Hldng   Tue, Nov 5  After the Bell        N/A
PDS    Precision Drill Corp  Tue, Nov 5  Before the Bell      0.12
PRU    Prudential Finl       Tue, Nov 5  After the Bell       0.49
SPI    Scottish Power        Tue, Nov 5  -----N/A-----         N/A
SHU    Shurgard Strge Cen    Tue, Nov 5  Before the Bell      0.78
TEM    Telefonica Moviles    Tue, Nov 5  Before the Bell       N/A
NWS    The News Corp Lmtd    Tue, Nov 5  After the Bell       0.10
TOC    The Thomson Corp      Tue, Nov 5  -----N/A-----        0.34


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

AW     Allied Waste Ind      Wed, Oct 30  After the Bell      0.27
DOX    Amdocs Limited        Wed, Nov 6  After the Bell       0.17
ARM    ArvinMeritor, Inc.    Wed, Nov 6  Before the Bell      0.60
BDX    Becton, Dick & Co.    Wed, Nov 6  After the Bell       0.53
BNN    Brascan Corporation   Wed, Nov 6  After the Bell        N/A
VNT    C. A. Nac Tele Ven    Wed, Nov 6  -----N/A-----         N/A
CLU    Canada Life Financial Wed, Nov 6  -----N/A-----        0.47
CED    Can Nat Resources     Wed, Nov 6  Before the Bell      0.66
CFFN   Capitol Federal Finl  Wed, Nov 6  -----N/A-----        0.30
CEPH   Cephalon, Inc.        Wed, Nov 6  After the Bell       0.28
CSCO   Cisco Systems         Wed, Nov 6  After the Bell       0.13
CMLS   Cumulus Media Inc.    Wed, Nov 6  -----N/A-----       -0.02
DVA    DaVita                Wed, Nov 6  Before the Bell      0.44
EVC    Entrvsns Comm Corp    Wed, Nov 6  After the Bell       0.00
FLR    Fluor Corporation     Wed, Nov 6  After the Bell       0.55
MME    Mid At Med Services   Wed, Nov 6  After the Bell       0.49
NAB    National Aus Bank     Wed, Nov 6  After the Bell        N/A
RL     Polo R. Lauren Corp   Wed, Nov 6  Before the Bell      0.51
PFG    Principal Finl Group  Wed, Nov 6  Before the Bell      0.52
SHPGY  Shire Pharm Group     Wed, Nov 6  Before the Bell      0.35
TMPW   TMP Worldwide Inc.    Wed, Nov 6  After the Bell       0.14
UNM    UnumProvident Corp    Wed, Nov 6  After the Bell       0.64
WPI    Watson Pharm Inc.     Wed, Nov 6  Before the Bell      0.42
HLTH   WebMD                 Wed, Nov 6  After the Bell       0.05


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

AET    Aetna                 Thu, Oct 31  Before the Bell     0.70
AEG    AEGON N.V.            Thu, Nov 7  -----N/A-----        0.26
BRL    Barr Laboratories     Thu, Nov 7  Before the Bell      0.86
BRG    BG Group              Thu, Nov 7  -----N/A-----        0.24
BTY    BT Group Plc          Thu, Nov 7  Before the Bell       N/A
CVC    Cablevision Sys Corp. Thu, Nov 7  Before the Bell     -1.36
CRE    Carramerica Realty    Thu, Nov 7  After the Bell       0.85
CZN    Citizens Comm Co.     Thu, Nov 7  After the Bell      -0.02
CNA    CNA Financial Corp    Thu, Nov 7  Before the Bell      0.56
DF     Dean Foods            Thu, Nov 7  Before the Bell      0.69
DEG    Delhaize Group        Thu, Nov 7  -----N/A-----         N/A
DVN    Devon Energy Corp     Thu, Nov 7  -----N/A-----        0.66
ENB    Enbridge Inc.         Thu, Nov 7  -----N/A-----         N/A
GFI    Gold Fields Limited   Thu, Nov 7  Before the Bell      0.14
HAL    Halliburton Company   Thu, Nov 7  Before the Bell      0.21
HCC    HCC Insurance Hldngs  Thu, Nov 7  After the Bell       0.47
HIW    Highwoods Properties  Thu, Nov 7  After the Bell       0.87
IGT    Intl Gaming Tech      Thu, Nov 7  -----N/A-----        0.92
JBLU   Jetblue Airways Corp  Thu, Nov 7  Before the Bell      0.28
KTC    Korea Telecom         Thu, Nov 7  Before the Bell       N/A
LTR    Loews Corp.           Thu, Nov 7  Before the Bell      1.47
MGA    Magna Intl Inc.       Thu, Nov 7  -----N/A-----        1.19
MTD    METTLER TOLEDO        Thu, Nov 7  -----N/A-----        0.50
PSC    Philadelphia Suburban Thu, Nov 7  Before the Bell      0.29
PCO    Premcor U.S.A.        Thu, Nov 7  -----N/A-----       -0.31
REY    REYNOLDS & REYNOLDS   Thu, Nov 7  Before the Bell      0.43
ROK    Rockwell Automation   Thu, Nov 7  -----N/A-----        0.26
RSA    Royal & Sun All Ins   Thu, Nov 7  Before the Bell       N/A
SPP    Sappi Limited         Thu, Nov 7  -----N/A-----        0.28
TI     Telecom Italia        Thu, Nov 7  -----N/A-----         N/A
TRLY   Terra Lycos           Thu, Nov 7  During the Market   -0.06
MNY    The MONY Group Inc.   Thu, Nov 7  Before the Bell      0.11
TRMS   Trimeris, Inc.        Thu, Nov 7  Before the Bell     -1.25
UVN    Univision Comm        Thu, Nov 7  After the Bell       0.07
DIS    Walt Disney           Thu, Nov 7  After the Bell       0.11


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

BSY    Brit Sky Bradcstg Grp Fri, Nov 8  -----N/A-----         N/A
CEP    Centerpulse AG        Fri, Nov 8  -----N/A-----         N/A
EP     El Paso Corp.         Fri, Nov 8  Before the Bell      0.27
FS     Four Seasons Hotels   Fri, Nov 8  Before the Bell      0.16
HEW    Hewitt Associates     Fri, Nov 8  Before the Bell      0.26
IFX    Infineon Tech         Fri, Nov 8  -----N/A-----  -     0.09
ORH    Odyssey Re Hldngs     Fri, Nov 8  After the Bell       0.31
PBR    Pet Bras Petrobras    Fri, Nov 8  -----N/A-----        0.63


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

CPBI    CPB Inc.                  2:1      Nov. 8th    Nov. 12th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Will they or won't they?  There is still a steady stream of late 
third quarter earnings reports to keep the brokerage houses busy 
and stocks moving as they miss or beat the numbers.  Yet the BIG 
focus this week will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.  Will 
they cut, if so by how much, or will they stand pat?


==============================================================
                       -For-           

Monday, 11/04/02
----------------
Factory Orders (DM)     Sep  Forecast:  -3.0%  Previous:     0.0%

Tuesday, 11/05/02
-----------------
ISM Services (DM)       Oct  Forecast:   53.0  Previous:     53.9


Wednesday, 11/06/02
-------------------
FOMC meeting (AB)


Thursday, 11/07/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   11/02  Forecast:     NA  Previous:     410K
Productivity-Prel (BB)   Q3  Forecast:   4.2%  Previous:     1.5%
Wholesale Inventries(BB)Sep  Forecast:   0.3%  Previous:     0.2%
Employment Cost Index(DM)Q3  Forecast:   0.9%  Previous:     1.0%
FOMC Minutes (AB)     09/24
Consumer Credit (AB)    Sep  Forecast:  $5.0B  Previous:    $4.2B


Friday, 11/08/02
----------------
None

Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available



==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  


Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

NVDA    Nvidia Corp                14.10     +2.20
MRBK    Mercantile Bankshares      39.60     +0.66
CI      Cigna Corp                 38.40     +2.26
CBSH    Commerce Bancshares        42.94     +1.35
WHR     Whirlpool Corp             47.62     +1.01
FMBI    First Midwest Bancorp      28.48     +0.69
UST     UST Inc                    31.68     +1.09
ZLC     Zale Corp                  29.89     +0.69

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CCCG    CCC Information Svc.       18.87     1.22
PMCS    PMC Sierra                  6.29     +1.42
ASF     Administaff Inc             7.26     +1.18
MROI    MRO Software Inc           10.24     +2.98
IDTI    Integrated Device Tech.    11.43     +1.55
ADRX    Andrx Corp                 18.37     +2.92

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

FOSL    Fossil Inc                 21.50     +1.89
KRON    Kronos Inc                 37.49     +1.60
FCN     FTI Consulting             42.88     +1.28
FIC     Fair Isaac & Co            39.60     +1.13
BAB     British Airways            22.55     +1.90
PIXR    Pixar                      52.95     +1.92
MTD     Mettler Toledo Intl.       32.14     +2.19

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AZN     Astrazeneca Plc            35.42     -2.13
HTV     Hearst-Argyle              23.20     -1.69
LANC    Lancaster Colony           36.45     -9.00
ABS     Albertsons Inc             20.04     -2.27
OVER    Overture Services          23.05     -4.48

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SABB    Pacific Capital Bancorp    25.90     -0.93




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